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COVID-19 in Nigeria: What to expect in next 30 days

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by

Ediri Oyibo
in , ,

After Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) broke out in Nigeria on Thursday 27th February 2020, beginning from Tuesday 17th March, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) has continued to churn out figures of confirmed cases almost on a daily basis.

The figures being churn out by the NCDC, while on one hand, give hope, have been judged understated due to testing capacity. On the other hand, when the trend of these figures are contrasted with the trend of the figures reported in countries such as the US, Italy, Spain, where the COVID-19 has worse hit, there are indications that Nigeria’s worst days are here.

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10 countries worse hit by COVID-19
10 countries worse hit by COVID-19 (Source: worldometer)

To understand what will happen with COVID-19 in Nigeria in the next 30 days, let’s first critically examine the timeline, what has happened with COVID-19 in the country in the past 30 days, how Nigeria moved from no case to 97 confirmed COVID-19 cases.

Timeline of COVID-19 in Nigeria in past 30 days

As of February 26th, no case of COVID-19 had been confirmed in Nigeria; however, awareness was on.

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On February 26th, 11 suspected cases of COVID-19 were tested and all turned negative.

February 27

On February 27th, the Minister of Health, Dr. Osagie Ehanire announced the very first confirmed COVID-19 case, an Italian man in Lagos State.

Following the outbreak of the disease in the country, the NCDC activated its National Emergency Operations Centre and began working with Lagos State Ministry of Health to manage the first index case and implement firm control measures.

Nigerians were advised to keep calm, with the Minister of Health saying, the index case patient was “clinically stable, with no serious symptoms, and is being managed at the Infectious Disease Hospital in Yaba, Lagos”. Identifying and reaching out to possible contacts of the case was done.

From February 28th to March 6th, there was quiet. However, on March 6th, 3 COVID-19 cases were suspected. However, all the three COVID-19 suspected cases, travellers from France, England and China, whose samples were collected for analysis, tested negative and they were discharged.

By March 8th, 23 cases have been suspected in the country. Of the 23 suspected cases of COVID-19, 22 were NEGATIVE and only one was positive as at the 7th of March 2020.

March 9

The second confirmed case of COVID-19 in Nigeria was confirmed on March 9.

“The index case of COVID-19 in Nigeria was detected by an astute physician who was aware of our national case definition. The second confirmed case of COVID-19 in Nigeria was detected due to the diligence of our work,” Director General of the NCDC, Chikwe Ihekweazu said on a ChannelsTV programme.

March 13

By March 13th, World Health Organization (WHO) had declared COVID-19 as a pandemic

March 15

The NCDC was aware of a patient in Enugu suspected to have COVID-19.

The laboratory result of the patient, however, came out negative.

March 17

On this day, the Minister of Health announced the 3rd case of COVID-19 in Nigeria. The case was a Nigerian who returned to Lagos from the UK and developed symptoms during her 14-day self-isolation.

March 18

March 18th, the Federal Ministry of Health announced 5 new cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria bringing the total number confirmed cases in the country to 8. All 5 cases had a travel history to the UK and the USA.

March 19

March 19th, 4 new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in Nigeria; a total of 12 confirmed cases in Nigeria.

March 21

On March 21st, Nigeria recorded the first COVID-19 cases outside Lagos. On this day, the Federal Ministry of Health confirmed 10 new cases of COVID-19. Of the 10 new cases, 3 are in the Federal Capital Territory and 7 are in Lagos. 9 out of the 10 cases had travel history outside Nigeria. The 10th case is a close contact of a confirmed case.

March 22

Eight new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in Nigeria on March 22.

March 23

On March 23rd, 10 COVID-19 cases were confirmed, with Edo State recording its first case.

Same March 23rd, Nigeria recorded its first COVID-19 death. The case was a 67-year-old male who returned home following medical treatment in UK. The case was later confirmed to be Suleiman Achimugu. He had underlying medical conditions: multiple myeloma and diabetes, and was undergoing chemotherapy.

March 24

Four new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed on this day, with Ogun State recording its first case.

March 25

Seven new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed on March 25th, with Osun and Rivers States recording one case each.

March 26

Fourteen new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed, with Bauchi State recording its first case.

March 27

Sixteen new cases of COVID-19 were reported, with Oyo recording its first cases, two cases, and Enugu also recording its first cases, two cases.

March 28

Another sixteen new cases of COVID-19 were confirmed on March 28, with Benue and Kaduna recording first case, one each.

What the COVID-19 numbers mean for Nigeria in next 30 days

From the 30 day timeline of COVID-19 in Nigeria, a trend could be observed with the curve.

After the first case was confirmed in the country on February 27th, from February 28th to March, the curve remained flat at zero, until a case was confirmed on March 9th and the curve inclined upward.

From March 10th to March 16th, the curve once again maintained flat at zero. However, beginning from March 17th, a continuous upward trend started until March 27th that the curve remained flat at 16 COVID-19 cases.

If the curve remains flat, that is Nigeria averages on 16 new COVID-19 cases on a daily basis, in the next 30 days, COVID-19 cases might be less than 1,000 at the end of April.

However, if the curve continues upward inclination in the next 30 days, especially as NCDC testing capacity improves, the situation would be worse, that is. COVID-19 deaths could hitherto spike.

Meanwhile, it is expected that with the job NCDC is doing, and efforts government is putting in, the curve may go flat or starts downward inclination, even as asymptomatic case heal themselves. Then, declining COVID-19 cases should be expected.

The COVID-19 curve is determined by the number of confirmed cases. All countries target is to maintain COVID-19 flat at zero. To down the curve to zero, it will take efforts of both the government and citizens.

What Nigerians should do to improve on the curve

COVID-19 spread is determined by human activities. Symptoms range from dry cough, sneezing to fever, and adversely, death. There is no known cure, nor is there any vaccine for COVID-19 yet. Treatment options are still undergoing clinical trials. If you must stay alive, prevention is better than cure.

It has been said that the Coronavirus doesn’t move. It moves when humans move. This also means that when humans don’t move, the virus can’t move, and it will die. Therefore, Nigerians should obey stay home orders and observe social distancing when going out for supplies.

It has also been said that the virus lives on some surfaces for as long as 72 hours. Therefore, to shorten the lifespan of the virus, Nigerians have to stick to the advice of frequent hand washing, and cleaning of surfaces with alcohol-based sanitizers and the use of hand sanitizers.

If symptoms such as dry cough, sneezing, fever are observed, seek medical attention, immediately, especially if you just returned from a trip abroad, especially high risk countries.

What government should do to down the curve

The federal government and government at State levels, in one way or the other, have put a handful of measures in place to curtail the spread of COVID-19 in the country. Some of the measures are restriction of movement, stay home orders, shutting down of all borders, ban on all international flights and ban on gatherings of more than 20 people.

Meanwhile, with all the measures in place to curtail the pandemic, government at all levels must understand that, if total lockdown orders are enforced, the social life of the people will be altered, with grave implications. Reeling out orders alone, and forcefully enforcing the orders, at these times, given this situation, therefore, will not hold waters.

It, therefore, bolds on the government to consider social intervention options to make staying at home comfortable for citizens. This will cushion the effects, most times adverse, that come with staying at home. Even, such social intervention will help Nigerians obey stay home orders naturally. Already, the Lagos State Government is working in this direction. Other States Governments should take a cue.

ALSO READ || COVID-19: How to keep Nigerians happy as government enforces stay home order

As Nigerians and the government play their roles, well enough, in the face of this COVID-19 pandemic, hopefully in the next 30 days, things will be fine.

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