Author: Magnus Onyibe

On What Issues Are 2023 Presidency Front-liners Running? – By Magnus Onyibe

The 2023 general election in Nigeria promises to be a referendum of sorts. That is simply because each of the frontrunners of the three main parties, All Progressives Progress, APC, People Democratic Party, PDP and Labor Party, LP that are likely to produce the next president of Nigeria next year have assets or liabilities by virtue of having been in public eyes through public service records that are being scrutinized.

And it is from those prisms that the assessment of the capacities and abilities of the potential next president of Nigeria in 2023 is being carried out.

But even as the February 25 date when the first ballots are expected to be cast is barely four(4) months away,internal schisms are still wracking the main political parties-ruling All Progressives Party,APC,main opposition,Peoples Democratic Party,PDP and a new contender,Labor Party,LP.

The wrangling in the two traditional rival parties is so rife that while the APC could not form its campaign council or produce its manifesto until last Friday October 21,which is nearly one month after the lndependent National Electoral Commission,lNEC,lifted the ban on campaigns last September 28,the PDP which had launched its campaign and manifesto on October 10 which is barely twelve (12)days after the ban was lifted.

Even,the PDP is yet to ramp up its campaign in ernest owing to hiccups bothering on wether or not it is pausing to accommodate the rebellious gang of governors led by Rivers state governor,Nyesom Wike with three (3) or four(4) other governors,which is gaining traction and with a potential of crystallizing into a breakaway faction of the PDP.

I will in the course of this discuss dwell further on the internecine wars raging in the APC and PDP,but which is being quelled by the former,even as it is unfortunately consuming the latter.

In contrast to the crisis that has stricken the traditional parties,the Labor Party,LP that is coming in from the rear has been to some degrees rancor free.

Remarkably, LP had literally jumped the gone by commencing campaigns online and embarking on million man marches which are actually street processions staged by angry unemployed and out of school youths.Somehow, it that amounted to campaigning in disguise long before it was legitimate to do so.

And it boils down to bending the rule without breaking it since the nation’s elections regulatory organ INEC which had set the takeoff date for the campaigns for the 2023 elections for September 28 did not take cognizance of the power of the internet in political campaigns or could not phantom how to enforce ban on campaigning online.

Consequently,LP was able to seize the space to maximally market its self and its presidential candidate to the youths who are so called NETIZENS and mainly adult Nigerians mainly in the diaspora who are now in the forefront of the movement for the actualization of Obi presidency in 2023.

Having started late,since the LP unlike the PDP or APC had never been in power as a ruling party as such it is relatively unknown to the electorate and therefore understandable why the party has been in a hurry to spread its foot prints nationwide.

And,truth be told,it is a feat that it has achieved via its massive social media presence being powered by the same youths that staged #Endsars street protests against government in October,2020 and out of school students owing to ASUU eight (8) months long strike.

The LP has performed so commendably that both INEC and the traditional parties,APC and PDP have a lesson or two to learn from the new party that has shot itself into national reckoning via its captivating ability to harvest latent youth voter energy hitherto unharnessed.

The current unprecedented wave of youths participation in politics which has added about ten (10) million to the number of eligible voters for the 2023 contest has resulted in a paradigm shift in politics with politicking based on socioeconomic issues driven by our youths now being the new order.
That is as opposed to focusing on prebendal issues of religion and tribe which the old generation politicians are still dwelling on,hence progress and development of significance have been eluding our country.

So,what appears to be LP’s liability which is little or no clout or political pedigree prior to the current election season owing to its newness on the national platform compared to the two leading and traditional parties that had controlled power at the center,(PDP for sixteen years and APC for 8 years by May 29 next year) is turning out to also be its strength in light of the fact that it is not bogged down by the burden of a negative record of leadership at the centre like the ruling APC and main opposition,PDP.

Fortuitously,the LP had earlier on in the political journey to the 2023 general elections been faced with the challenges of internal schisms that are presently threatening to tear the traditional parties especially the PDP asunder.

That was when it’s current presidential candidate,Peter Obi,a former vice presidential candidate to Atiku Abubakar as presidential candidate on the PDP platform in 2019,seized the LP platform to pursue his presidential ambition when he realized that he had no chance in his original party,PDP where there were multiple major players or ‘big boys’ jostling to become the presidential flag bearer.

Before joining the PDP,Peter Obi had served as the governor of Anambra state in 2014 under the platform of All Progressive Grand Alliance,APGA,founded by lgbo war icon ,chief Chukwuemeka Odumegu Ojukwu of blessed memory.

So in pivoting to the LP,he figured out that he had no fighting chance in the PDP which was quite insightful given the epic battle still raging within the main opposition party arising from a very vicious contest for the presidential ticket last May.

Of course,taking over the LP as it’s presidential candidate was not a tea party. But Obi had the good fortune or foresight of escaping to the LP to avoid the fall outs of the demons of post party primaries wrangling that border on personality supremacy that the APC and PDP are currently wrestling with.

Perhaps,given the very contentious nature of labor unions,LP which had labor activists as its core foundation members,the party could not really move forward as it should.

It may be recalled that one of the foremost union leaders in Nigeria,Adams Oshiomole that later became APC chairman ventured into politics via the LP platform. But he later switched to APC after becoming governor of Edo state,owing to the complexity of the LP platform.

So,also did Olusegun Mimiko,who also left the LP – a platform under which he served as governor of Ondo state to join the PDP.

Even Dele Momodu,Ovation magazine publisher had once contested for the presidency of Nigeria on the LP platform before he joined the PDP and contested in the primaries for the 2023 presidential ticket.

I have gone this far into details about the antecedents of LP and it’s presidential candidate to put into context the fact that for Peter Obi to become the party’s presidential candidate he had daunting obstacles to surmount and they include hostile former leaders of the party that he successfully tackled within the party and in court of law and thus flushed them out.

The acrimony was not unexpected because it is an existential reality that it is such atmosphere and environment of high friction which is synonymous with trade unionism that compelled the aforementioned notables who had previously leveraged the LP platform to become governors in Edo and Ondo states as well as becoming a presidential flag bearer and caused them to flee from the party would afflict Peter Obi.

But whereas the political notables before Peter Obi failed to give wings to the LP to fly, it’s current presidential ticket holder has made it a prominent player in the politics of Nigeria such that it has from being a fringe party become both a national and an international sensation by leveraging the support of his somewhat fanatical supporters by the name,OBEDIENTs at home and abroad,that recently transformed into OBIDATTI movement-a tag that is forged out of the acronyms of the surnames of the presidential and vice presidential candidates,Peter Obi and Yussuf Datti,Baba-Ahmed.

It is phenomenal that in a space of just six(6) months after Peter Obi took over the reins of leadership,the LP has become a party of consequence in Nigeria’s 2023 general elections.

Invariably,the LP is basically running with the message that it would turn Nigeria from a consuming country to a producing one with a promise to correct everything that has gone wrong with our beloved country under the watch of APC, but without details about its rescue plan and how it would be implemented.

Is that enough to cut the ice with the Nigerian electorate that has been disappointed multiple times by politicians who campaign in poetry, govern a prose-a quote attributd to former New York state governor, Mario Cuomo?

At this juncture it is apropos that we shine the light on the jeopardy within the two main traditional parties- the APC and PDP which are increasingly looking as if they are sinking like elephants caught in quicksand(more so with the PDP and less with APC) while their distant rival,LP is galloping like a gazelle in the savannah through populist actions that the leaders are involving themselves in,such as the call for campaigns to be paused in honor of the over six hundred Nigerians that have died from the recent massive flooding in the low lying areas of the country.

It is germane to point out that the hiatus that was triggered in the two leading parties are self inflicted because they are a fall out of the poor management of the high wire politicking that took place during the party primaries between May and June this year.

With respect to the APC,its presidential candidate Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, BAT who was not the preferred candidate of the leadership of the party but who practically pulled a chestnut out of fire or in a hat trick was at loggerheads with the leadership of the party that presumably preferred Senate President Ahmed Lawan as the party’s presidential candidate until Tinubu in last minute horse trading rallied all the Yoruba and a couple of south-south presidential candidates to step down for him.

The routing of the other contenders for the presidential tickets including former transportation minister and ex Rivers state governor,Rotimi Amaechi and Vice President Yemi Osinbajo who came second and third respectively in the primaries contest left a bad taste in the mouth of the defeated candidates and their supporters.

As such,Tinubu’s victory that was aided by the suspected disdain of APC northern governors for senate president Lawan’s quest to scale up from number three to number one on the ladder or leadership hierarchy of our country was also the additional wind beneath Tinubu’s sail.

Had Lawan who had the Chairman of the party,Abdulahi Adamu as the propelling force succeeded,his presidency could have thwarted the chance of any of the current and immediate past APC governors that are angling or positioning to get a shot at the presidency after Tinubu’s tenure.

Their chances could have been zero simply because if Lawan were to become number one Aso Rock Villa occupant from 2023 for perhaps eight (8)years after which it would be the turn of the south to produce the next president,and there would be a likely wait for at least sixteen (16) years before the current northern governors and other top political actors could get a shot at the presidency.

Since they reckon that they would be out of relevance politically or even be too infirm or not be alive sixteen years from 2023, he was denied their support.

There is even a conspiracy theory that senate president Lawan’s inability to secure his ticket to return to the senate as his place holder allegedly reneged on their agreement to relinquish the ticket to him emanated from the camp of those that scuttled his presidential ambition who have also gone all the way to cancel him out of active participation in politics in the next dispensation.

With no love lost between those that Tinubu deem as internal foes and perhaps justifiably so,a list of campaign council members prepared by the party without his imprimatur had been rejected after being published in the social media by the party.

Being suspicious of the lack of altruism in the intentions of the party leadership that was initially not enthusiastic about his ambition,BAT had insisted on his input in the manifesto.
And tension had welled up and tempers flared up with the ensuing threat of a rift that could have gravely damaged the fabric of unity within the APC being palpable.

As fingers were crossed and breathe was being held over the final list of his campaign council and manifesto,last Friday (22,10,2022)BAT and the APC produced a harmonized list that was adopted by all sides of the divide and officially released.

In fact before last Friday,rumor was rife that with President Mohammadu Buhari’s name not being in the campaign council list,he may not be keen on campaigning for Tinubu,more so because it had appeared as if Tinubu was also distancing himself from president Buhari’s governance record, which no matter how spin doctors try to make Nigerians re-imagine it in positive light,still appears not to be appealing to most of them who are thumbing their noses at the claims being thrown into the public square.

It is doubtful if the veneer that the government and the ruling party tried to put on its governance record last week by trumpeting its claim of lofty accomplishments during its Ministerial Performance Review Retreat with all the ministers and heads of departments and agencies in attendance,yielded any significant change of mind by most Nigerians in any significant or elaborate manner.

That is because despite all the positive sound bites,Nigerians who are being crushed by extreme poverty and struggling to cope with the level of insecurity may not have been fooled.

Nevertheless,given the inherent potential benefits of pushing alternative reality(made popular by ex USA president Donald Trump)which has the capacity to cast doubts into the minds of those sitting on the fence on wether or not they are better off than they were before the APC mounted the throne in Aso Rock Villa in 2023,the image make- over stunt penultimate week might have given some members of the electorate reason to give the APC a second thought.

And to further make itself look better,the APC could also add that the hardships being experienced in Nigeria including insecurity of lives and properties are global and fall out of COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing Russian -Ukraine war as well as the global terrorism phenomenon that got magnified by 9/11 terror attacks in New York and Washington DC.

With the APC having made minor adjustments including adding president Mohammadu Buhari as chairman of the campaign council and the party chairman,Adamu Mohammed as deputy chairman of the campaign council,the aggrieved members of the party seem to have been reconciled and peace appears to be reigning in APC.

Little wonder president Buhari at the launch of the campaign council and manifesto in Aso Rock Villa last Friday vowed that he would be in the forefront of the campaign to make Tinubu president in 2023.

The APC presidential candidate,BAT who had also rejected the manifesto or socio-economic blue print which had been produced by his associates and had thanked the authors for their commitment to his cause while insisting that his plan is to produce a far reaching and robust plan to pull Nigeria back from the precipice, apparently did a good job given the rather practical and doable manifesto that was launched late Friday October 21,2022 which more or less is one month after INEC green-lighted 2023 campaigns.However,it is worth pointing out that the manifesto has been alleged to have been a plagiarized version of late MKO Abiola’s manifesto tagged Hope 1993.

So,from what is now in the public arena,the APC is running on consolidating Buhari’s accomplishments and Tinubu’s much vaunted superlative performance as governor of lagos state from 1999-2007.

Would that be enough for the electorate to put their fate in the current ruling party’s hands once again after what a critical mass of Nigerians generally regard as locust years inflicted by the outgoing APC government ?

While APC internal crisis that appeared to be very deep and not easily reconcilable seems to have been resolved,the conflict within the PDP which is also a fallout of the party primaries has taken on a life of its own as it is currently characterized or defined by the washing of the party’s dirty linen in the public arena.

It is an ugly situation that should not have arisen if the conventional wisdom: ‘A Stitch On Time Saves Nine’ was taken to heart by PDP leadership at that time.

The now resolved APC crisis could have degenerated into a similar dimension of House Of Commotion situation that the PDP appears to have assumed.

But since the conflict was not nipped in the bud as it should have in order to avoid the collateral damages that it has already inflicted on the main opposition party,it is presently severely jeopardized and handicapped.

There is an Arabic saying that goes thus: “If power is for sale, sell your mother to buy it.You can always buy her back again.”

It may be regarded as Machiavellian,so it is not a perfect philosophy to those who don’t share such sentiments based on the belief that supposing your mother is not available to be bought back after you grab power?

But some desperate situations require extraordinary responses which is why what has become a potential split up of the party reminiscent of what happened to it 2013/14 and the run up to the 2015 general elections should have been handled differently.

The incumbent Rivers state governor,Nyesom Wike can clearly be likened to a wounded bull that should have been handled with more care to avoid the collateral damage that he has now inflicted on the PDP that was initially ticking off all the right boxes with respect to its sure-footedness in her quest for its presidential candidate to return to Aso Rock Villa as the prime occupant,and for the party itself to soar one more time into Nigeria’s political orbit as the ruling party at the center,which is an Olympian height from which it fell in 2015 after that stunning failure in the election exercise now known as hurricane Buhari.

Although a lot of damage has been done by allowing what should have been a mere spat to degenerate into a feud,then a crisis that is threatening to have a cataclysmic effect on the party’s chances of producing the president of Nigeria in 2023,damage control can still be implemented to steer the ship off from its current trajectory that could result in its wreckage-defeat at the polls on February 25 next year.

It is unclear if the three man reconciliation committee comprising of former senate president,David Mark,and ex-governors of Delta and River states,James Ibori and Peter Odilli,respectively that was set up by PDP’s presidential standard bearer Atiku Abubakar to mend the broken fences between him and Wike’s group have made any progress.

If it succeeds,it would become the saving grace of the party from imminent failure to win back Aso Rock Villa if the drift is not arrested .

But pride may be killing the PDP which is having its best chance to retake control at the federal government in 2023 but in my view is about to blow it up on the alter of ego of its leaders that are leaving a lot of value on the table which is unfortunate.

My optimism about the bright chances of PDP catapulting itself back to Aso Rock Villa is driven by the high rate of despondency that has seized a critical mass of citizens who are yearning for change in government and political actors.

But it is worrying that the main opposition PDP seem to be lacking in the vigor and palpable determination required to upstage an incumbent.In fact l do not see the enthusiasm.
The party’s campaign council needs to go back to the archives to read what then opposition party APC was doing by this time in 2014 so that it would be guided.In fact they need to understudy Lai Mohamed, current minister of Information and then spokesman of the opposition party and his team.

PDP’s disappointing and somehow tepid campaign so far is derived from its lack of focus or not harping on the stunning levels of insecurity of lives and property nationwide owing to the reign of criminal elements such as terrorists in the name of religious rights agitations,bandits and outlaws disguised as cattle herdsmen on rampage all over the country,hunger and starvation wrecking lives due to lack of employment and inability of the folks in the hinterland to engage in farming or petty trading because the environment is highly unsafe given that those who defiled the order of the nefarious ambassadors recently had their throats slit in Sokoto state and environ.

Also,a combination of the current high rate of inflation at about 21% and outrageous naira/dollar exchange rate at about N750/$1 are a milieu of negative socio-economic factors existent in our economy and country that could warrant change of government.

And it is rather odd and striking that Nigeria is being wracked by all of the above listed malaise right now,but the main opposition party is not exhibiting the determination and zeal that it would take to dislodge the current ruling party that is largely responsible for the malady besetting our country resulting in mass migration of professionals seeking greener pastures overseas that is now popularly referred to as: ‘Jakpa’ syndrome.

That is perhaps because there are no specific issues that the PDP is running on.
If there are,the party and it’s presidential candidate are yet to define their message clearly,so that it would be crystal clear in the minds of the electorate.

The underlying reason for the less than dynamic performance of the PDP in its campaign partly stems from the internecine war within its fold.

And from experience,it often takes more than the failures of governance listed above for a ruling party not to win a general election especially in Africa and a country like Nigeria.

Events of catastrophic dimensions demonstrating or revealing incapacity of the ruling party to handle it have to manifest in the country for a change of government to happen at the polls. And such has not happened except the flooding in the low lying areas which hopefully would not get worse before government gets a good handle of it to avoid collate damage.

Thankfully,so far government has achieved a series of successes over reining in terrorists,bandits and other criminal elements that appeared to have been very menacing a couple of months ago.
Except for the current security alert on Abuja released by both the United States of America,USA and United Kingdom,UK missions in Nigeria,relative safety had returned to the cities,although huge swathes of the hinterland were still under the control of gangsters who are reportedly collecting levies from citizens in locations within Niger state which is a neighbor to the Federal Capital Territory,FCT,Abuja.

The alternative route to victory to the opposition party to unseat the incumbent is galvanization of opposition parties into a sort of coalition force to root out the ruling party at the polls which was the case when ACN,CPC,ANPP, a splinter of APGA and nPDP bounded together to defeat PDP as the ruling party at the center in 2015.

Right now,that efficacious and proven strategy has not been adopted by PDP.

As things stand today,while the APC that was caught up in a similar web appear to have untangled itself,PDP seems to be intent on self destructing by literally not diffusing the time bomb embedded in its bowels that is ticking rather loudly.

In fact,it is gutting and unfathomable to me that the PDP has remained in disarray four (4) months to February 25 that the first ballot will be cast by Nigerians to elect president,senators and members of the House of Representatives.

It is such an irony that rather than be on the cusp of scooping up about four or five of the other opposition parties on the ballot into its fold to make the PDP become more formidable, the risk of losing four or five governors of its fourteen governors stares it in the face.

What would it take for the party Chairman, Iyiorcha Ayu to step aside and allow peace to reign or for the National Working Committee,NWC to compel him to resign in the event that he refuses to make the sacrifice required to save the party?
To me what it takes to succeed are pragmatism and flexibility, not the rigidity that the PDP is currently exhibiting.

Are the events that caused the party to crash from Olympian heights in 2015 when the leadership of the party at that time failed to placate the aggrieved members leading to its being trounced at the polls is about to be reincarnated?

I am yet to figure out why l am manifesting a feeling of de ja vu about PDP that the demon that afflicted it when a significant number of its leaders,notably former Vice President Atiku Abubakar,senator Bukola Saraki,a handful of governors and a host of other heavy weights staged a walk out on the party leadership in the course of a meeting held at Yar’dua Centre,Abuja, is about to happen again.

The current alienation of four (4) or five (5)of its aggrieved governors led by Rivers state,Nyesom Wike including Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State,Samuel Ortom of Benue state,Seyi Makinde of Oyo state and possibly Ifeanyi Ugwanyi of Enugu state is reminiscent of the walk out by some party stalwarts ftom a party event which signaled the demise of then ruling party,PDP. That is because the rebelling members walked into the waiting arms of the opposition APC that was a melting pot for all the opposition parties.

Viewed from that prism,Wike and the rest of the discontented PDP governors numbering three(3) or may be four (4) if Enugu state is added should have been recognized as a big threat since it is such a rebellion back in 2013/14 that resulted in the loss of the 2015 election by the PDP to APC.

Has the leadership of the PDP considered the fact that with Four(4) or five(5) governors of the fourteen (14) or so PDP governors resolving to encourage their supporters not to vote for PDP presidential candidate it would by all standards of measurement be a big deal?

Now,there are some party stalwarts that are against acceding to Wike’s team demands especially with respect to getting the current chairman of the party Iyiorcha Ayu to step aside for a southerner to occupy the office based on power balancing ethos of the party and to facilitate the healing of the party from its self inflicted injury constraining and causing it to punch below its weight.

The hawks anchor their argument on the belief that the Rebellious Governors do not have any other choice than to kowtow to the party’s dictates because it is too late or impracticable at this point in time to team up with any of the other two leading parties,APC and LP.

Based on the events leading to 2015 election that culminated into the demise of PDP after nPDP was formed on the verge of the 2015 elections by the political big wigs that created the splinter from the mother party,l do not see the reason history would not repeat itself.

There is an argument being made that Rotimi Amaechi,former Rivers state Governor and immediate past minister of transportation and APC 2023 presidential primaries contestant would prevent Wike from joining APC.

And l would argue that such line of thought is hogwash,simply because in politics there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies.
And a good example of that is that both current enemies (Amaechi-Wike) were best of friends when Amaechi was governor and Wike was his chief of staff less than a decade ago.

The earlier the PDP recognizes that the Discontented Five Governors are presently free agents,the better for their chances at winning back Aso Rock Villa.

So,what if in the next few days,weeks or in a couple months,Wike and members of his cohort go into a cahoot with APC or LP to discomfit the PDP? If it happened in 2013/14 why can it not happen again in 2022/23?

The truth is that it is foolhardy to underestimate what an aggrieved party man or members with capacity to hurt the party when pushed to the wall can do to get a pound of flesh.

For context,imagine the fury of a woman scorned.

In addition to dealing with its internal conflicts,the PDP and its presidential candidate are also having difficulties in their messaging as the 2023 general elections go into the home stretch.And without clear cut messaging,they seem to be loosing momentum.

The mis-speak of the party’s presidential candidate,Atiku Abubakar in kaduna during his meeting with Arewa Consultative group left a bad taste in the mouth.That is because rather than talk about what he is running on,he has been accused of literally trashing his Yoruba and lgbo candidates.

And not much has been done to correct the negative impression that he is playing identity politics which is obviously quite offensive to his Yoruba and lgbo base of supporters.

The recent video that trended in the social media with the presidential torch bearer of PDP hobnobbing in Paris,France with individuals that would rub-off negatively,rather than burnish the image of the potential president of Nigeria has also had a dampening effect on a party that should be glowing.

Turaki Atiku Abubakar can not afford to continue to stumble on such avoidable foibles.

In addition to public utterances,particularly in Kaduna that are being twisted and the unpresidential public conduct in Paris,France,the party and its candidate are also not contrasting in any significant manner their campaign promises with that of the APC.
For one,their manifestos are not really dissimilar.

And l don’t see why the PDP and it’s candidate are not capitalizing on the prevailing toxic sociopolitical environment by harping on the causes of Nigerian people’s anger and resentment arising from the socioeconomic hardships that they are currently contending with and vigorously telling them to hold incumbent government responsible.

As for LP and its presidential flag bearer Obi,they are positioning not only as a counterforce to the ruling APC but also espousing alternative plans, although fleetingly on specific policies of president Buhari policies which they are thrashing.

Although,the LP and mr Obi have not articulated in any convincing ways how they intend to achieve their fantastic plans,they are telling potential voters to do away with the baggage of the old political class that they are blaming for all the woes of the country since independence.

Their messaging is that with LP and Obi-Datti ascension to the presidency in 2023, there would be a clean up of the proverbial Augean stable.lt sounds familiar and appears to be an Eldorado of sorts.

But would the LP’s populist and positive sound bites equate capacity and ability to deliver on their promise ?
That is a discernment that the electorate has to make before they cast their votes.

Hopefully,that type of scrutiny would be facilitated by a series of public debates possibly between the presidential candidates from all the eighteen (18) parties on the ballot in 2023 and perhaps later between the four front runners-Tinubu of APC,Abubakar of PDP Obi of LP and Musa Kwakwanso of the fledgling NNPP.

Such an initiative would offer the electorate the opportunity to determine which of the front-liners has a feasible manifesto with actionable plans.

This time,it is my belief that Nigerians are not ready to be taken for a ride anymore by politicians selling them fantastic or dud promises without practical pathways to how the promises can be fulfilled as was the case in 2015 when they were told that naira to dollar exchange rate would be reduced to N1 to $1.

So the candidates for elective offices,particularly those gunning for the presidency must be ready for intensive scrutiny of their personalities and manifestos.lnfact it is at this point in time that civil society organizations such as BudgetIt with focus on finance and accounting and YIAGA Africa with specialization in promoting democracy echos should take the lead in enlightening Nigerians on the efficacy of the plans and programs of each of the political parties and their flag bearers to help them make the right choices.

Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.

To continue with this conversation, please visit www.magnum.ng

October 26, 2022
2023 presidential front-liners on the firing line – By Magnus Onyibe

It all started with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu,BAT who is the presidential candidate of the ruling party at the center,All Progressive Congress,APC who mis-spoke at an event in kaduna last week.

He was captured on video saying: “Rufai,we will not let you run away. Your vision,creativity,and resiliency in turning a rotten situation into a bad one is necessary at this critical time.”

To put things in context,Tinubu who was speaking to an audience of eminent northerners who were gathered in a business summit where they were rubbing minds on how kaduna state’s socioeconomic fortune can be improved, most probably committed the gaffe of using the inappropriate word ‘bad’ instead of ‘good’ which is the logical word that should have followed his sequence of thought in the earlier quoted sentence in the speech that he was making in commendation of Nasir El Rufai,kaduna state governor’s accomplishments.

Of course,it may be argued that no man is infallible or beyond goofs and gaffes, sometimes.

In that regard,it is understandable if the speaker recognizes the mistake immediately and corrects himself in the course of speaking.
However,that was not the case with Tinubu in the referenced instance.

Hence it has become a flaw and a sore
talking point,as critics have assumed that the Tinubu slip up was not a mere guffaw in kaduna.
That belief is underscored by the fact that he did not recognize his mistake which has been assumed to be as a result of lack presence of mind,hence he did not self correct.

Given that the APC presidential candidate’s health condition has been a subject of public scrutiny eliciting massive thumbs down from a critical mass of Nigerians who believe that he is suffering from major impairments health wise,critics are drilling down the slip up in his speech in kaduna and on other occasions as evidence of his poor state of mental health.

Tinubu’s misfortune,if l may characterize it as such,is made worse by the fact that he had previously exhibited similar traits of what critics have concluded is memory lapse when he proposed that 50 million Nigerians should be recruited into the security services to combat insecurity in Nigeria,whereas the nation’s workforce is barely more than 80 million people.

He is also reported to have once stated that Permanent Voters Card,PVC which enables citizens exercise their civic responsibility has an expiry date,which obviously is not the case,given that it is called Permanent Voters Card.

Furthermore,it does not help that incumbent president Mohammadu Buhari had in the run up to his becoming president of Nigeria in 2015 is believed to have betrayed such debility by reportedly mis-pronouncing his then running mate,Yemi Osinbajo’s name as Osinbade.

He was pilloried,but apparently it did not count against him in the polls,per see.

Also,soon after he won,then president-elect, or president-in-waiting exhibited another lack of presence of mind when in a parley organized in Washington DC,United States of America,USA for the meeting and greeting of Nigerians in the diaspora,he failed to comprehend a question put to him by a Nigerian about whether he would treat all Nigerians including the easterner’s who did not significantly vote for him,equally.
His response in which he mixed up 97 with 95 after he referred to lgbos as 5% also raised eye brows about his mental capacity as the Tinubu gaffe is currently eliciting.

When the Buhari flaws are juxtaposed or placed against the back drop of the current string of Tinubu speech mishaps,the striking similarities are indisputable.

And given the unpalatable outcome of Buhari’s stewardship which would be eight (8) years by may next year,and during which our country has become so blighted by hunger and starvation,that it is now tagged the poverty capital of the world;so riddled with violence arising from religious and ethnic intolerance as well as banditry and savagery that sorrow,tears and blood are now the regular trade mark of our country;and such that majority of Nigerians are currently so despondent,at a breaking point and on their wits end owing to leadership myopia that reigns supreme in Aso Rock Villa.
That is why they are wary of the health condition and are paying close attention to the physical and mental status of their potential next president.

It is therefore highly improbable that after such dismal leadership experience from a man suspected to suffer from similar debilities that bother on inability to display razor sharp mind which should be a necessary,if not required attribute that an astute leader should posses,the masses would not be justifiably apprehensive of the risk of electing another president who may not have full control of his mental faculty.

So much about the APC and it’s presidential standard bearer.

The situation in the main opposition party, Peoples Democratic Party,PDP is not dissimilar.

The party’s presidential flag holder,Turaki Atiku Abubakar has also stirred up a firestorm similar to the one currently charring BAT-the ruling party, APC’s presidential hopeful.

And co-incidentally,like the Tinubu faux pax,the miss-speak by Atiku Abubakar also occurred in kaduna during an interactive session with Arewa joint committee last Saturday.

“I have traversed the whole of this country
I know the whole of this country.I have built bridges across this country.I think what the average northerner needs is somebody who is from the north, and who also understands the other parts of Nigeria and who has been able to build bridges across the rest of the country.”

“This is what the northerner needs.He (northerner) doesn’t need a Yoruba candidate, or an Igbo candidate.This is what the northerner needs.I stand before you as a pan-Nigerian of northern origin.”

The above comment attributed to the presidential candidate of the PDP when he was addressing his fellow Arewa people last Saturday,15/10/2022 has been seized upon by the opposition politicians that have branded it a divisive comment.

And perhaps justifiably so,as the utterance has connotations of playing the ethnic card by the man who is aspiring to lead a multi ethnic country like Nigeria.

Perhaps what he meant to say is that Nigeria does not need a sectional or ethnic president,but one with a pan Nigeria world view.
And it is disappointing that what he meant to say,is not what he came off with,or what came across to the critical mass of Nigerians as what he was saying.

Against the backdrop of the fact that our beloved country has become so polarized along ethnic and religious fault lines in the past seven (7) years of the incumbent government,of which the number one (1) occupant of Aso Rock Villa who had been manifesting the characteristics of an ethnic jingoist prior to becoming president and the manifestation of such biases have patently been on parade in the governance of Nigeria,there is indeed a reason to be concerned,hence the ensuing hoopla.

Expectedly,the PDP’s presidential candidate’s camp has been scrambling to put the mis-speak captured in the video that has gone viral into context.

They are arguing that the audience was a gathering of his kit and kin and the location was kaduna,the unofficial headquarters of northern political intelligentsia (kaduna mafia) who he needed to pander to in order to extract their commitment to his quest for the presidency a sixth time.

Since the speech was captured on video,attempts to spin it by Paul lbe,his spokesman and Ehigie Uzamere,a member of the campaign council has been futile.

In my view,although the candidate may not have meant it in the manner it was conveyed in his speech,it is actually not too different from the infamous ‘emi lo kan’ (it is my turn) utterance made in Ogun state by no less a person than the APC presidential torch bearer,Bola Ahmed Tinubu when he was try to rally Yoruba support for a step down of other candidates pre-party primary elections.

Ideally,as humans,it is not uncommon or unusual for propositions that evoke ethnic sentiments to be leveraged when a politician is canvassing the buy-in of his group into his ambition.

But owing to its capacity to be used as a weapon against anyone found to be pandering to his narrow ethnic or group stock,especially since a northerner has been calling the shots in Aso Rock Villa in the past nearly eight(8) years,and to the consternation of a vast majority of southerners that another northerner is angling to succeed president Buhari,that line of thought should have been applied only during closed doors meetings.

Basically,it is tantamount to any of the candidates going to the mosques or churches to urge Muslims or Christians to vote only for members of their religious groups.
Although such moves are currently being made by all the three candidates,but they are nuanced.

The need to be more discreet and circumspect in the utterances of the presidential candidates of both the APC and PDP is accentuated by the fact that the impropriety or inappropriateness of the seeming bid to cancel out other tribes from the presidential race,can not be overemphasized,particularly the lgbos whose turn,(all things being equal) it could have been to produce the next president.

But owing to unforeseen circumstances that have altered the political equation,such as the belief that it is only a ruling party at the center that can afford to adhere to prior permutations like rotation of presidency between the north and south which ordinarily could have been a mere ritual in the manner that it happens in the private sector whereby the first Vice President of a union or group,for instance,a body of teachers or accountants,steps into the presidency, when the tenure of the incumbent expires.

But Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu made the incendiary comments with ethnic bias openly and such moments of indiscretion have thus became their Achilles heels.

With respect to Tinubu whose gaffe ‘emi lo kan’ comment occurred before the party primaries,he was not negatively imparted because he triumphed by emerging the party’s flag bearer.
However,it remains to be seen whether the current Atiku Abubakar goof-“He (northerner) doesn’t need a Yoruba candidate,or an Igbo candidate” would inflict any significant damage on his chance at succeeding president Buhari next year,given the fact that he would be alienating his Yoruba and lgbo supporters if the notion is not effectively debunked and erased.

Although,the main beneficiary of the fall out of the resort to pandering to ethnicity by the presidential front liners,Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu is Peter Obi, the Labor Party,LP candidate who has aggressively shot himself into reckoning as a front liner,his ethnic stock is not significant enough in number for him to fall back on them to help catapult him into Aso Rock Villa in 2023.

Hence he pivoted from All Progressive Grand Alliance,APGA which is a platform rooted in lgbo land that he leveraged to become two term governor of Anambra state,before literally porting to the PDP,a platform with which he started prosecuting his presidential ambition as vice presidential candidate to the PDP’s presidential candidate in 2019,Atiku Abubakar who is also flying the party’s flag for the presidency in 2023.

With a dim prospect of realizing his ambition with PDP political vehicle laden with heavy weights with deep pockets and more robust political pedigree,or star studded,Obi jumped into the LP boat with which he is currently making waves by leveraging the anger of our youths who have been expressing angst against incumbent government via #ndsars street protests in October 2020,driven by youths who had been brutalized by an arm of the police force that used to go by the name,SARS.

Given the reality of the dictum,the idle mind (hand) is the devil’s workshop,the ranks of Obi movement was further boosted by students that have been rendered idle by the eight (8) months long tertiary institutions lecturers strike that left higher institutions shut down,plus the burgeoning number of adult malcontents in the society locally and in the diaspora who are opposed to the blatant act of nepotism,extreme inequality and massive corruption that have engulfed our country.

Despite all the deft moves of Obi by giving the almost moribund LP party a shot in the arm and providing leadership to #Endsars gladiators that lacked a political platform and arrow head to flex their muscles;apart from the negative effect of the activities of overzealous youths who have been manipulating facts and sexing-up videos to suit their candidate’s ambition,as reflected by their doctoring of the video of PDP presidential campaign launch in Uyo,Akwa lbom state on October 10 where the party members were falsely claimed by fake news purveyors to be chanting in Efik dialect,Obi Kekerenke,which is loosely translated into English language means Obi is our choice;the association of LP and it’s presidential candidate with #EndSARS is currently haunting Obi’s quest for presidency of Nigeria in 2023.

In fact,right now,not condemning or taking specific actions to stop the mischief being
perpetrated by the NETIZENS, who are basically Obidients,is a test of Obi’s moral conscience.

Another veritable evidence of a fall out of Obi’s dalliance with our internet savvy youths who have the capacity to monitor developments in the polity is the appearance on the list of LP campaign council members,the name of retired army general John Enenche who had described the Lekki toll gate shooting of some of our youths to death during #Endsars protests two years ago as fake with the allegation that the video was ‘photoshopped’ by the youths.

When the outrage of our youths against Enenche is taken into consideration,then you can see how the ‘party on the roll’ as our youths would like to characterize the LP,also known as Obi-Datti movement,is not different from APC and PDP in terms of also boxing itself into a tight corner.

Little wonder credibility is the deficit which the Obi-Datti movement continues to suffer in the eyes of matured Nigerians who are skeptical about the capacity and ability of Labor Party and it’s presidential flag bearer,Peter Obi to deliver on their claim of being the divinely ordained rescue team for the nation.

Having been ferreted out by the youths as an enemy within or a two faced personality of the dimension of Jekyll and Hyde,the military general Enenche,who has been called out by the youths has been trying to salvage his benighted and wrecked reputation with the following response:
“Personally and professionally,I worked with the overriding interest of Nigerians at heart based on the oath of allegiance I swore on commission into the military service, which is sacrosanct.

“I sincerely shared in the pains of that breaking news through the social media as it were. On that note, I want to assure all that more efforts will be put in, so that all assertions can be cleared convincingly from appropriate sources.”

How Obi and his team respond to the demand of the youths to remove Enenche from the campaign council list to assuage them or whether he opt to retain Enenche,would impart on how the LP and its presidential torch bearer,Obi would be perceived by both the youths who constitute the bulk of the party’s main support base and the aggrieved adults at home and abroad,that are the party’s devotees who are passionate about change from the old political class to a new crop.

Hopefully,the LP would draw lessons from the PDP that has elected to at the cost of a monumental and colossal collateral damage,retain Iyiorcha Ayu as its party chairman despite all the odium and opprobrium being elicited by the deluge of allegations of financial impropriety being leveled against him,plus the challenge of his inability to keep to the promise that he is said to have committed to by agreeing that he would resign his position as chairman of the party,if the presidential flag bearer emerged from the north after the primary elections.

Putting all together,the campaign for the presidency of Nigeria in 2023 is getting off to a chaotic start.

And the victims of the chaos are the Nigerian electorate that are yet to be presented with the manifesto of the various political parties,except the PDP and its candidate,Atiku Abubakar that have launched their campaign and unfolded their plans and policies on the 10th of this month in Uyo,Akwa lbom state.

It beats me hollow that the good old policy of the handlers of Very Important Personalities,VIPs having a mock session with their principals before addressing an audience has not been applied in the management of both Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar.

That is why instead of discussing the policy and programs of the candidates,Nigerians are mired in the unproductive chores of wallowing in the personal idiosyncrasies of our potential future president.

The net effect of denying Nigerians the benefit of scrutinizing the plans of the presidential candidates on how they intend to rescue Nigeria despite the fact that,ninety(90 )days instead of sixty (60) day has been provided in the new electoral act 2022,is that without the opportunity of having ample time to interrogate the policies and programs of the parties and their candidates,Nigerians may once again end up electing a president based on sentiments of ‘any other politicians than the old political class’ which was the case in 2015 when the slogan was ‘anybody else but Goodluck Jonathan’.

And we ended up not knowing very well then main opposition party,APC and it’s presidential candidate,Mohammadu Buhari’s policies and programs,which with the benefit of hindsight,they actually didn’t have,given the fact that it took the incumbent president Buhari six (6) months to form his first cabinet.

Why must Nigerians take political parties,except PDP that has laid out its plan,on the face value ?

I would argue wholeheartedly that the current down playing of the need to scrutinize the candidates based on their policy documents detailing their rescue plan is a recipe for further disaster as the common aphorism ‘failing to plan is planing to fail’, teaches us.

For now,(except the PDP)all the other frontline parties-APC and LP that are yet to submit their manifestos to Nigerians should be treated and handled in the manner that Caveat Emptor -Buyer Beware is placed on unverified entities or personalities.

All men and women of goodwill would agree with me that we can not afford to have another disastrous leadership in Aso Rock Villa from 2023,which not having a policy plan to serve as Road Map into the future, portends.

Magnus onyibe,an entrepreneur, public policy analyst,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
To continue with this conversation, please visit www.magnum.ng

October 20, 2022
Presidency 2023: A Contest Between Three ‘Sinners’? – By Magnus Onyibe

The title of this piece is not exactly the terminology used by Adams Oshiomole,former labor leader, ex Edo state governor and immediate past chairman of the ruling party at the centre , APC. But he is the one that drew my attention to the fact that all the three presidential candidates with potentials to become President of Nigeria in 2023,are sinners.

Tagging them with such a negative epithet or appellation is most probably derived from the general belief amongst Nigerians that anyone that has served in public office must be regarded as a sinner.

And it is a fixed mindset amongst the masses basically because of the high level of corruption being perpetrated by public servants via fraud and the abysmal level of service delivery to the masses by
successive regimes arising from promises unkept which they approximate to sin

The lack of confidence in our political system and political class by the electorate is such that regardless of the political platforms that produce the leaders,Nigerians have learnt from experience,after multiple disappointments which have galvanized their belief, that their leaders hardly have their best interests in mind.

And the fact that despite all the endowments that abound in our country in terms of both human and natural resources,Nigeria is still in the bottom rung of the list of the world’s developed countries,even as she is right on top of the list of the worst countries to live ,which is a reality that is stomach churning to the average Nigerian,hence every known occupant of public office,to put it mildly,is deemed to be a sinner.

In order words,the masses deem their leaders that have occupied public offices as being responsible for the underdevelopment of the country,and therefore responsible for their plight,so they hold them in contempt.

It is from that general predisposition of Nigerians,especially the youths towards members of the old political class ,whom they blame for the misery being visited on them and which they intend to remedy via the 2023 general elections,that the energy currently justifying the notion of Nigerian politicians as sinners,is derived.

Taken from the prism highlighted above,it is difficult to deny that all the front runners contesting for the presidency of Nigeria are by and large sinners,as the three of them have served as two terms Vice President in the case of Atiku Abubakar , and governors respectively in the case of Bola Tinubu and Peter Obi.
Be that as it may, no human being is actually flawless.

Arising from the assertion above,l am urging the electorate to be very pragmatic by looking beyond the veneer by way of thoroughly scrutinizing the candidates to identify,based on past records,the one with the best capacity and ability to rescue our country as opposed to listening and gyrating to the high decibel music being played by new age and untested politicians with highfaluting as well as exalting messages emanating from the multifarious political rostrums.

At this juncture,to help the electorate in their choices of who becomes their president in 2023,it is appropriate that we take a cursory look at the unique selling points and Achilles heels of the candidates that are front runners in the presidential candidates of the leading political platforms,so that Nigerians and indeed the youths don’t end up throwing away the baby and the bathwater.

Remarkably,APC and it’s presidential candidate,Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu are brandishing his accomplishments as Lagos State governor (1999-2007) as opposed to the record of the party in nearly eight (8) years of holding the reins of government.
In addition to the party’s former chairman,Adams Oshiomole’s recent diatribe that candidate Tinubu should not be judged by the performance of APC.

He was more or less distancing Tinubu from president Buhari’s record which was reinforced by APC vice presidential candidate,Kashim Shettima’s presentation during Nigerian Bar Association,NBA recent conference.
That would be a hard sell.

But Tinubu who is known to be a maverick who has succeeded in keeping Nigerians guessing about his ancestry and educational antecedents would be asking very skeptical Nigerians to trust him with their future as lagosians did when he governed them for eight (8) years.

Would he pull the type of stunts that he successfully executed during the APC party’s primaries by clinching the ticket to the bewildered opponents ?

With Bola Tinubu as the ruling party’s presidential candidate,he could have been enjoying the benefits of the good legacy that the out going party would have left for the good people of Nigeria to cherish,if the incumbent government had lived up to expectations.

But unfortunately,the current administration is leaving a legacy of sorrow,tears and blood,to borrow a line from a hit song by the late Afro beat king and maestro,Fela Ransom Kuti.

Which is perhaps why,the former APC chairman,Adams Oshiomole has urged Nigerians not to judge Bola Tinubu based on president Mohammadu Buhari’s records which is sordid,no matter how Buharists try to spin it .

But would it not be uncharitable and disingenuous for Tinubu to distance himself from Buhari?

It is needless pointing out that the Tinubu/Shettima agenda for Nigeria would likely be different from the well known APC and Buhari’s agenda.
As such,they would definitely be walking a tight rope,especially if president Buhari is expected to join in the campaign for Tinubu as a candidate.

To contextualize the dilemma,Al Gore tried to detach himself from the administration that he was aiming to replace in the United States of America, US,when as Vice President to Bill Clinton,he was contesting to succeed his principal,but distanced himself from his boss owing to the scandal about Clinton’s alleged sexual escapade with Monica Lewinsky,a White House intern,which is an event that sullied Clinton’s reputation in the twilight days of his watch.

Of course Al Gore failed to become president.
Perhaps,not appropriating Clinton’s Sterling records was a contributing factor to his failure.

Therefore ,how Tinubu would fair with the strategy of distancing himself from Buhari’s regime,is a demon that he must deal with in the coming days and weeks.

PDP presidential flag bearer,Turaki Atiku Abubakar is leveraging what he accomplished as Vice President (1999-2007) in the area of telecoms revolution(GSM etc) and the liberalization of Nigerian economy,as well as his personal accomplishments as a successful entrepreneur.

He will also likely be asking Nigerians if they are better off where they are today than where they were in 2015,in terms of socioeconomic development.
The answer of which is obviously,no.

But would that reality spur Nigerians who are at their wits end to trust him to transform their lives as he did with the telecoms sector in Nigeria?

To succeed in becoming president ,it is the task the PDP presidential candidate must accomplish,now or never.

Given his successful change of PDP policy of rotation of presidency between the north and south,his ability to mobilize and galvanize voters drawing from his last contest against the incumbent for the office of the president in 2019,is being tested.

Would he prevail as he did during his party’s primary elections,despite the gaslighting of the party by Nyesom Wike, governor of Rivers state that has stirred up what looks like hornets nest within the PDP?
As a man known for his indomitable spirit,
Atiku Abubakar is clearly poised to succeed on his fifth contest for the presidency of Nigeria. So all eyes are on him, even as he is pulling out all the stops.

To the advantage of Turaki Atiku Abubakar,he was on the ballot running against the incumbent for the same office in 2019 which is less than 4 years ago.

Therefore,he is building up on the gains that he made in 2019.

Fortuitously,candidate Buhari that he contested against and who garnered about fifteen (15)million votes against Atiku Abubakar’s which was in excess of thirteen (13) million in 2019 will not be on the ballot in 2023.

That should give the former Vice President some heft and bounce.

Now,some videos have been trending online wherein allegations that under the watch of PDP presidential candidate as the Vice President to president Olusegun Obasanjo,privatization of government corporations was under his purview as chairman of the economic council.

But instead of acknowledging his critical role in the process of introducing GSM telephony that we are currently enjoying,and which was introduced by the council that he chaired,what is being held up against him is the process of privatizing the petroleum and electricity sectors which were not concluded before their time was up in 2007, hence Nigeria is still suffering from epileptic electricity power supply and the masses still struggle to purchase petrol,a drudgery that has remained perennial.

Nasir El rufai,present kaduna state governor and APC chieftain was the Director General ,DG of the agency that privatized the corporations which were not doing well.

In my reckoning,if Atiku Abubakar influenced him unduly in the privatization of government assets exercise,l assume that he would have carpeted him in his controversial book:”Accidental Public Servant”, especially since they are now in opposing political camps.

Evidently,Atiku Abubakar may not have selfishly influenced the sale of the public assets that were underperforming and therefore a drain on public treasury.
It is commendable that it has remained unproven that he owns any of the privatized firms despite continuous search for evidence,just as no known associate of his,has been established to also own any.
Yet,he is still being vilified for seeking government assets to himself and his cronies.

It would interest critics of Atiku Abubakar’s role as chairman of the privatization council to know that Ajaokuta steel complex which could have been,but was not privatized under president Olusegun Obasanjo’s regime is still there rotting away. If it were to be offered for sale today,it would be sold as scrap since it’s value has become much more worse than it was during Olusegun Obasanjo/. two decades ago.
Yet like all the other government assets sold for less , multi billion dollars was invested about four (4) decade ago in setting up Ajaokuta steel mill.

Despite the reality above ,the false narrative that the former Vice President sold public assets to himself and cronies which is a fallacy,has somehow,remained stuck on the PDP presidential flag bearer like a badge of dishonor.

How he scrubs himself off,of that blight or stigma is a mission that must be accomplished by laying bare for public assessment what he knows about the privatization exercise during his time as Vice President,with a view to convincing the electorate on how he plans to replicate the superlative turn-around of the telecommunications sector through privatization under his watch that is now under the firm control of the private sector and performing efficiently and effectively by helping create employment and boosting the Gross Domestic Product , GDP of our country which is in the best interests of Nigerians.

And Peter Obi,the Labor Party presidential standard bearer is similarly driving his campaign based on his accomplishments in Anambra state where he served as governor (2006-2014) as well as his personal achievements as an accomplished entrepreneur.

By constantly imploring the youths to replace the old political class with him based on his fantastic message of changing Nigeria from a consuming country to a producing one,he might have hit the bull’s eye. Or so it seems.

But would that popularity leadership be sustainable when the chips are down,and all the presidential candidates put their campaigns in full throttle as the campaign trains are fired from all the four cylinders?

Right now,Peter Obi,labor party presidential torch bearer has had a head start through his ingenious strategy of campaigning online ahead of other contenders due to the fact that INEC is yet to figure out how to effectively enforce the rules in the electoral act 2022 which has set September 28 as commencement date for campaigns,but the election regulatory body did not envisage that campaigns could be taken online as Obi-Dients have been doing without being sanctioned, particularly because the internet which they have maximally utilized to market Peter Obi is a largely ungoverned space.

That has enabled the LP candidate key into the anger of our youths against the incumbent government which they had earlier expressed via the #Endsars protests of October 2020 that threatened our country to its very foundation.

So,basically,Obi-dients,which is the monicker that the labor party candidate’s followers have tagged themselves,in my view,is ordinarily a movement and simply #Endsars 2.0.
In other words ,OBIDIENT movement is #Endsars encore with a smattering of adult buy-in.

And I earnestly believe that Obi’s leadership in popularity amongst the youths may be transitory because he has been the only one literarily on top of the roof telling Nigerians that he would move the country from consumption to a production economy,which sounds like music to the ears of the electorate , particularly the youths cadre who are largely unemployed and neglected by government for too long.

Because they have an axe to grind with the incumbent government,they seem to have been sucked into the notion of anyone else would be better in Aso Rock Villa than members of the old political class.

Right now,Obi is not telling anyone how he would create employment for the youths and boost the nation’s empty treasury,reduce galloping inflation,crash the dollar/naira exchange rate and lower petrol pump price and drastically rein in insecurity driven by religious fanaticism and ethnic nationalism triggered by the zero sum politics of the incumbent regime.
Hopefully,he would be sharing his plans with Nigerians during the campaign proper.

Before the end of October which would be about one month of being on the campaign trail by all the candidates,the true leadership in the polls would have been established when Nigerians judge the candidates by the content of their manifestos and their workability and not in the manner that they are bemoaning the misery visited upon them via uninspiring and unimaginative leadership.

And it is doubtful if Peter Obi would still be ahead of the pack,as it currently appears,when it comes to the brass tacts .

A further evidence of Obi’s campaign activities,are his fund raising and campaign stomps in Europe and North America which is raising the eyebrow of INEC and other relevant authorities that are keen to determine the impropriety or otherwise of Obi-Dients activities,
since it might be conferring undue advantage on the LP presidential candidate and as such it may imperil the chances of other candidates in the race.

It does not help Peter Obi that his supporters who have been very fiery,have been over selling him via deliberate misinformation by hair- brushing their claims about their candidate’s prowess,here and there.
There is even a cartoon that l have seen in the social media portraying him as Jesus with his photo ensconced in between Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar with the caption : A rare picture of Jesus and the two thieves.
The perfidious act may be attributed to his followers,but it may be part of the negative vibe that may be rubbing off on candidate,Obi.

I have had cause in the past to caution the Obi campaign team against such antics in previous articles.

In light of the above,the inability of Obi-Dients to separate facts from fiction may be the Achilles heels of Peter Obi.
Worst still , the LP presidential candidate has not only been likened to Jesus, he has also been portrayed by Obi-Dients as Nigeria’s equivalent of Barack Obama of USA,Emmanuel Macron of France and even the president-elect of Kenya, William Ruto, whose emergence as presidents of their respective countries were against the run of play.

Would their dream materialize?

Willy nilly,all the three under listed leading contenders for the presidency highlighted above would from September 28 try to hoodwink the electorate with outright lies and bogus claims about their accomplishments and thereafter make irresistible promises to provide solutions to a litany of unfulfilled promises made in 2015, 2019 and even much earlier.

The question boggling the minds of anxious Nigerians this time around is: would our politicians,especially those contending for the office of the president in 2023 be promise breakers or promise keepers ?

It may be recalled that immediately after the current ruling party’s candidate , Mohammadu Buhari won the elections in 2015,APC disowned all the lofty promises that it made pre election. It’s excuse is that the phantasmagorical promises were not made by the party,but by supporters who did so without the party’s consent.

Why did the party not disclaim the promises pre -election and only did so post election ?
It is unlikely that Nigerians who are now more savvy and wary would fall for the
antics of politicians that over promise and under deliver.

In conclusion,as mr Adams Oshiomole,a former labor leader,one time governor of Edo state,and immediate past chairman of APC told me in the course of the ceremonies for Thisday newspaper and AriseTv chairman,Nduka Obaigbena mum’s funeral in Owa-Oyibu,a couple of weeks ago,Nigerians are faced with the choice of three ‘sinners’ vying for the post of president in 2023 general elections.

And as l have elucidated in this piece,he is on point essentially because all the three of the presidential front runners have occupied public offices.
That implies that they have all been like fishes swimming in transparent bowls like aquarium and all their skeletons and warts have been exposed having been closely scrutinized by politically conscious Nigerians, that might have adjudged them to be guilty as charged as sinners.

Having identified the baggages that they are now carrying and which have affirmed the verdict of being guilty that has been passed by Nigerians on them, and as such indicating that they are not saints,we can all agree that they are all sinners.

Nevertheless ,one of them would be given another chance to redeem or reverse that negative image when he returns to public office as president of Nigeria on May 29,next year.

Any of them pretending to be a Saint amongst the three ,would be unraveled by the highly discerning and critical masses in the cause of the campaigns which begins in ernest,later this month.

Taking all together,my hunch is that corruption would not be a hot button issue in the campaigns for 2023 general elections as it was in 2019, when campaigns in the election circle commences.
That is probably because conversations around corruption allegations against the three candidates might have been exhausted and focusing on such matters may amount to over flogging the issue.

Rather,l am predicting that fake news would be a potent weapon of mass deception,if it were to be deployed by unscrupulous politicians mainly because it had worked for them in 2015 and 2019 without repercussions.
Owing to the capacity of the so called alternative reality to pervert democracy,it is of critical concern to democracy advocates like me and as such it is the raison dete for my intervention via this piece urging Nigerians to stand up against fake news.

Fortuitously,the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC is lobbying NATIONAL ASSEMBLY,NASS for the establishment of a special court for reining in electoral laws defaulters.

The INEC initiative is welcome as it tallies with my intent for alerting Nigerians about the insidious effects of twisted information on outcomes of elections as evidenced by the horrendous experience that the masses have been coping with,signposted by the series of disappointments that they have suffered,owing to failed promises by desperate and deceptive politicians in 2015 and 2019.

The net effect of the let down is the manifestation of Nigeria as a country which is like hell on earth, where life is a-dime- a-dozen and fellow humans who happen to be alive are gnashing their teeth in lnternally Displaced Persons,IDP camps where they are languishing,and a reminder that even though we are not at war in a conventional way,our country is fast becoming like Ukraine which is an active war zone.

Now,as if dealing with fake news is not bad enough,a new political malaise that is very disconcerting to most Nigerians,which is the temperament of the spokesmen of the presidential front runners who have become not only footloose but also uncouth.
The culprits in this instance,the spokesmen for the ruling party,APC in the persons of Femi Fani-Kayode and PDP’s Dino Melaye have become so unhinged that instead of being image makers they are now news makers.

One was scandalized by the resort of the duo to the childish use of skits to denigrate one another like clowns thereby debasing their principals who are serious contenders for the presidency that deserve to be presented to Nigerians in more dignified manners,and also denigrating politics which is supposed to be a serious business,not comedy show, which is the low level that the aforementioned presidential reputation managers have reduced it.

And one can bet that the absurd mannerisms displayed by the pair of Fani-Kayode and Melaye in the trending videos that suggests that they may be laden with negative energies,would rub-off badly on their principals whose image they are supposed to be burnishing.

It is unedifying that at such a critical time that the exchange of ideas full of intellectual and practical perspectives in leadership between the candidates should be dominating the political atmosphere, the trading of barbs (focused on personal idiosyncrasies) rather than what’s ailing Nigerians and how to cure them,is the main thing occupying the minds of presidential image makers and with which they are fouling up the public space.

Does it not amount to double jeopardy that the presidential candidates would not only be trying to erase their reputation of sinners with which Nigerians have labeled them,but they would also have to contend with the consequences of the oversized egos of those responsible for doing the job of marketing them to the masses,but who happen to have worse image deficits than their principals?

I recall with nostalgia the days of Abba Daboh and Godwin Tarka-both of whom hail from Benue state and were political foes whose feud that started in the 1970s continued into the 1980s.
They were so famous that the anecdote: “lf you tarka me ,l will daboh you’- a creative conversion of their last names into curse words in 1974,became part of the political lexicon at that time.

Unlike the current Fani-Kayode and Melaye feud which appears to me as mere ego trips and of zero or rather nuisance value to Nigerians,Daboh’s attack on Tarka which bothered on integrity, compelled the latter to resign from office as communications minister.
And it represents one of the rarest shows of courage and dignity by a Nigerian public officer to resign from office when his ‘sins’ were exposed.

So,political quarrels which are intrinsic to politicking had substance and purpose in the days of yore ,and in the present times, Integrity and dignity seem to have been thrown to the dogs.

Nigerians deserve better than is presently being served them by the demagogues currently bestriding the political space. And it behoves of the media and civil society as well as democracy advocates to mobilize Nigerians politicians intent on engaging in state capture.

If the aphorism ‘the morning foretells the evening’ is to be taken to heart,then the political campaigns that would officially commence by September 28,unless measures are taking by the presidential candidates to rein in their propagandists , would be full of drama and infantile tirades,instead of debates on ideas, policies and programs of the candidates seeking to rule over Nigeria from 2023

I would like to end this dialogue with the aphorism made popular by the politician Anthony Weldon.
“Fool me once,shame on you,fool me twice shame on me”.

It is a witty way to say that you should learn from someone’s tricks on you. If you don’t, you’re the only one to blame.

And that is a principle by which l am recommending that Nigerians should be guided in choosing who would lead them politically.

The question now is : would the electorate allow some despicable (not the patriotic and conscientious) politicians that have fooled them before ,fool them once again in 2023 ?

In the event that the unthinkable happens, then the Steven king modification of the aforementioned wise crack that would aptly describe the yoke around the neck of Nigerians would be in order:
“Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me three times, shame on both of us.”

Would it not be such a pity party for Nigeria and Nigerians if at the end of the 2023 election circle, we bow our heads in shame, if the later rather than the former once again becomes our lot?

Magnus onyibe,an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
To continue with this conversation, please visit www.magnum.ng

September 14, 2022
Understanding Nigerian Political Trick Of Fake It Till You Make It – By Magnus Onyibe

Unscrupulous politicians are on the March again with the intention to pull- the -wool over the eyes of the electorate,as the 2023 general elections rapidly approaches.

It may be recalled that in the run up to the 2015 elections in which the All Progressive Congress,APC upstaged then ruling party at the center,People Democratic Party, PDP,the expectations of Nigerians were raised,based on the fake promises made, even though the pledge givers knew that they could not be redeemed.

Hapless Nigerians were informed by politicians that Nigeria would be an Eldorado of sorts if their candidates and political party were given the mandate. And they had their way. But nearly eight (8) years after taking possession of the control of the levers of power in Aso Rock Villa and most of the governors mansions across the thirty six (36) states of the federation, if there is anything like hell on earth,that would be Nigeria.

The main culprits for the perfidious act of delivering far short of promises are members of the current ruling party,All Progressive Congress,APC, which is a convergence of multiple opposition parties-ACN, CPC, ANPP, and a faction of APGA and PDP that melted into one,in order to forge a common and formidable front to upstage then ruling party,PDP.

To achieve its mission,it may be recalled that the strategy of regaling Nigerians with lofty promises that are solutions to the malaise wracking the society at that point in time and which were attributed to then incumbent government,were promoted and marketed vigorously knowing that they would resonate with the masses.

And they did so by making up quotes and ascribing them to leaders of thought in our society such as the noble laureate professor Wole Soyinka and erudite scholar and pseudo politician,Professor Pat Utomi,to mention just two leading lights in Nigeria.

With a deluge of such false claims already filling up the media space lately ,the duo of Utomi and Soyinka have been issuing rebuttals as politicians ramp up activities towards 2023 general elections which commences with the election of the president and National Assembly members in February next year.

Before the confutation of what was attributed to the duo of Utomi and Soyinka, the emir of Kano and sultan of Sokoto, two highly respected monarchs have also had their names dragged into the political arena by desperate politicians that are by hook and crook trying to take undue advantage of the positive spinoffs from the good names of some credible Royalties via name dropping which amounts to using the name of our royal fathers to deceive the electorate.

There is also an international dimension to the ‘fake it till you make political trick’ that had become part of the political game since 2015, and gained currency in 2019,before its current threat of becoming entrenched in Nigeria’s political system,if measures are not taken to stymy it.

Christian Amanpour,A CNN anchor woman and Elon Musk,the founder of Tesla automobile brand have also had cause to disown bogus endorsements of candidate Peter Obi,ascribed to both of them.

While Elon Musk’s video got patched up to a voice extolling Obi and promising to do business with Nigeria if he wins,a fake interview appointment for Peter Obi With Amampour had also been circulated.

Although,APC was most guilty of ‘the fake it till you make it trick’ in 2015 and 2019, in the current dispensation,Peter Obi’s campaign, a.k.a OBIDIENT movement has so far been the main culprit.

That is probably because they seem to have commenced campaign online and are also engaging in fund raising internationally, ahead of the pack.
The numerous million man matches for Peter Obi that have been afoot across Nigeria ,ahead of all the other parties seems to me like campaign for the LP candidate.

Therefore ,the purpose of intervening via this article is for the electorate to understand the imminent mind games that is about to be unleashed on them by cunning demagogues with a view to bending the minds of voters to do their bidding in order to win the elections knowing fully well that the promises they were making would not be fulfilled as they have planned,ab initio to deny the promises after winning.

Hopefully,by revealing the tricks and sensitizing the electorate so that the unwary voters would identify such misinformation as scam and political trick, and at the same time nudge our law makers to incorporate ways to mitigate and sanction offenders in the proposed electoral offenses court or tribunal,is the goal of this essay.

And to be fair ,the Obi-Dients,which is a term that the very boisterous supporters of LP presidential candidate have branded themselves, are not the originators of ‘fake it till you make it’ political subterfuge.
Nevertheless,they are the leading offenders in the current dispensation.

Back in 2015, fantastic promises such as reducing naira/dollar exchange rate drastically to $1-N1, and a reversal of then prevailing high petrol pump price which was a major concern of majority of Nigerians as well as eliminating terrorism which was still at infancy,were at the core of the campaigns.
Owing to to the timeliness and aptness of the promises,they resonated with Nigerians.

Equally enchanting to Nigerians,was the promise to put an end to the epidemic of corruption in our country ,which was being waved as a red flag and the bane of our beloved Nigeria at that point in time.
And it was canvassed vigorously that graft would be drastically reduced,if not eliminated by candidate Mohammadu Buhari,if he was elected president and APC took over the reins of leadership at the centre.

It is needless pointing out that hapless Nigerian masses seeking rescue from the misery that had taken hold of them at that time,had no choice than to consider then main opposition party,APC as the rescue team in the manner that a messiah was divinely assigned to rescue lsrealites from their bondage in Egypt, as we have learnt from the narrative contained in the holy Bible.

And APC presidential candidate,Buhari was easily seen as the proverbial knight in a shining armor on a mission to save Nigeria.

With then candidate,now president Buhari’s unassailable reputation at that time ,as a no nonsense retired Army General who had zero tolerance for corruption,it was forgone conclusion that graft would be drastically reduced if not eliminated in our country under Buhari’s watch.

But contrary to the high expectations, after nearly 8 years of APC being Incharge of affairs in our beleaguered country, corruption of monumental proportions has assumed the dimension of an epidemic threatening to bankrupt our beloved country in the manner that Haiti,Venezuelan,Sri Lanka have been run aground and their economies are currently comatose

Nothing illustrates how sunken Nigerian economy has become more than the fact that the Central Bank of Nigeria,CBN is struggling to retain enough funds in the treasury to sustain three months of import,even as government can hardly pay salaries of civil servants,except it borrows from banks.

Worst still,there is so much scarcity of foreign exchange now that it is being rationed, ostensibly with a view to screening out abusers from genuine users as demand has far outstripped supply,implying that our foreign exchange earning capacity as a country is in jeopardy.

With manufacturing being hobbled owing to inability of factory owners to source foreign exchange to import raw materials and other items required for producing essential commodities,shortages of basic necessities may be imminent.
To me, the current misery being endured by the masses echoes the ignoble period of rationing of essential commodities such as rice ,bread,milk sugar etc which was the hallmark of 1983-85.

God forbids that our country returns to that morbid past.

Relying on his training as a military general that had previously reined in religious fanatics during the reign of president Shehu Shagari from 1979-1983,candidate Buhari was also marketed to Nigerians as possessing the antidote to the threat of insecurity driven by terrorists that had sprung up in the north leveraging the populism of religion that has degenerated into fanaticism before metastasizing into insurgency.

The level of insecurity in our country now is so dire that it suggests that our security architecture has been overwhelmed and therefore collapsed with rule of the mob, rather than rule of law reigning supreme, especially in the hinterlands.

The situation of insecurity is so severe and horrendous that most Nigerian roads can no longer be plied without the consequence of death of road users in the hands of the multiple gangs of outlaws that are slowly making out country look like gangster paradise.

Even the newly resuscitated railways could not serve as alternative means of transportation to the roads as patrons are also being kidnapped for ransom by the nefarious ambassadors who have now made criminality a very lucrative industry.

How about the pump price of petrol which was in 2015 selling at N87 when the incumbent government took over the affairs of our country,but the critically important commodity currently sells at N165 per liter which is a double fold increase.

Also the petrol subsidy that gulped about N650 billion naira in 2015,is today draining the treasury in excess of N4 trillion based on the estimate made by the defunct PAPPRA- petroleum import and sales agency and provisions made in 2022 national budget.

Also not immune to the litany of disappointing outcomes of promises made to Nigerians who were desperate for change is the naira to dollar exchange rate which is currently spiraling out of control.
In 2015 it was hovering between N160-200/$1.
But,after all the abracadabra by Godwin Emefiele led Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN,including the banning of 41 items from being imported via funds sourced from the CBN , plus the prolonged shutting down of Nigerian borders with neighboring countries ,coupled with multiple financial interventions in various economic sectors running into trillions of naira, the value of the Naira has been drastically devalued in a period of less than eight (8) years, to the extent that Nigerian currency currently exchanges for a rate in the neighborhood of N700-705 to $1 in the parallel market compared to less than $1-N200 which the prevailing rate in 2015.

The situation has become so outrageously and ludicrously embarrassing and painful that the process of obtaining Basic Travel Allowance, BTA and Personal Travel Allowance from commercial banks and the CBN is so cumbersome now that countless Nigerians are getting stranded abroad for lack of ability to pay for services with their Nigerian credit or debit cards.

International airlines had threatened to shut down services to Nigeria because their funds had been trapped as they were unable to repatriate their sales proceeds until the central took some actions to remedy the highly embarrassing situation.

With a huge chunk of their funds still unreleased to the airlines,nervousness has taken hold of most Nigerians who are traveling abroad not knowing if they would be stranded over there,if the airlines eventually carry out their threat of shutting down services.

All the doom and gloom that are bedeviling Nigeria and Nigerians have been catalogued above, so that the consequences of voting based on emotions rather than on verifiable facts would be stark to the electorates, and prompt or compel them to become more vigilant.

In our checkered political history, I can not recall Nigerians being in such economic dire straights, except during the 1967-70 civil war.

And the mess highlighted above have befallen Nigerians simply because when in 2015 the APC hired former USA president Barack Obama’s campaign strategist, Dan Axerold to dress up then candidate Buhari in borrowed robes which presented his presidency as the panacea to our country’s socioeconomic malaise ,literally and practically, we swallowed the bait, hook-line and-sinker.

The masses were so hoodwinked by the fantasy that they failed to check out what is beneath the veneer by interrogating the ability and capacity of candidate Buhari to deliver democracy dividends such as alleviating poverty via provision of jobs,social and economic infrastructures such as schools,housing,water, electricity,roads,hospitals etc .
Although, it might not have been deliberate, as Buhari might have been overwhelmed by the existential realities that have hindered him from performing optimally, but it is our indiscretion and lack of due diligence in order to figure out the candidate that poses the skill set required to rescue our country and also patriotic enough to lift the critical mass of Nigerians out of the moras of poverty ,that has placed our country in the current sorry state that it finds itself in.

It is unacceptable to me,and l presume people of good conscience that by and large,the gullibility of Nigerians that was exploited in 2015, by politicians hell bent on state capture,is still being exploited via fantastic campaign promises made by unscrupulous politicians who are currently gearing up to literally rape the electorate one more time.

And l am urging Nigerian voters to make conscious efforts to peel off the veneer in the fantastic propositions in order to decipher the truth from the lies in the contents being bandied around so that they can see through the subterfuge.

The proposition above is critically important as our cherished country prepares for another circle of political party elections towards a change of guards in Aso Rock Villa seat of presidential power, and most of the thirty six (36) government mansions in Nigeria, including the National Assembly, NASS as well as the thirty six (36) state houses of assembly nation wide.

It is worrying to me that it appears as if the circumstances that were prevailing in 2015 are prevailing once again,and Nigerians are about to be taken for a ride one more time unless they learn to be more circumspect .

Put succinctly,I am encouraging Nigerians to ‘shine their eyes’ this time around and that translates to:Caveat Emptor or Buyer Beware in legalese.

Clearly,l am by and large warning Nigerians to beware of the Ides of March by not getting emotional in their choice of new leaders as they did when they kicked out Goodluck Jonathan’s regime based on the irrational slogan: anybody else than Goodluck Jonathan .
Evidently,that warped mind set that was shaped by misinformation l,has as they say it in local parlance, moved Nigeria from ‘frying pan to fire.’

As readers may be aware,the ides of March is a warning to watch out for betrayal or misfortune.

For readers that are unfamiliar with the term Ides Of March, let us be guided by dictionary .com which states that the term: ides of March,(which is March 15) is the day on which Roman Emperor Julius Caesar was assassinated in 44 b.c.e. For this reason, it has become associated with bad omens, betrayal, and misfortune.

This means that as activities towards the actualization of the general elections in 2023 get into top gear and INEC is poised to blow the whistle for the campaigns to officially commence on September 28 for the February 25 presidential and National Assembly,NASS elections,fantastic promises are being made by unscrupulous politicians to confuse the electorate into yielding up their votes for the most artful schemers.

At this point, it is appropriate that we highlight some of the unique selling points of the candidates that are front runners in the presidential candidates and political platforms.

Remarkably,APC and it’s presidential candidate,Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu are brandishing his accomplishments as Lagos State governor (1999-2007) as opposed to the record of the party in nearly eight (8) years of holding the reins of government. In addition to the party’s former chairman,Adams Oshiomole’s recent diatribe that candidate Tinubu should not be judged by the performance of APC, distancing Tinubu from president Buhari’s record which was reinforced by APC vice presidential candidate, Kashim
Shettima’s presentation during Nigerian Bar Association, NBA recent conference, would be a hard sell.
But Tinubu who is known to be a maverick would be asking very skeptical Nigerians to trust him with their future as lagosians did when he governed them for eight (8) years.
Would he pull the type of stunts that he successfully executed during the APC party’s primaries by clinching the ticket to the bewildered opponents ?

Likewise,PDP presidential flag bearer,Turaki Atiku Abubakar who is leveraging what he accomplished as Vice President (1999-2007) in the area of telecoms revolution(GSM etc) and the liberalization of Nigerian economy, as well as his personal accomplishments as a successful entrepreneur.
He will also likely be asking Nigerians if they are better off where they are today than where they were in 2015, in terms of socioeconomic development.
The answer of which is obviously,no.

But would that reality spur Nigerians who are at their wits end to trust him to transform their lives as he did with the telecoms sector in Nigeria?
That is the task the the PDP presidential candidate must accomplish, now or never .
Given his successful change of PDP policy of rotation of presidency of between the north and south,his ability to mobilize and galvanize voters drawing from his last contest against the incumbent for the office of the president in 2019, is being tested.

And Peter Obi,the Labor Party presidential standard bearer is similarly driving his campaign based on his accomplishments in Anambra state where he served as governor (2006-2014) as well as his personal achievements as an accomplished entrepreneur.
By constantly inciting the youths to replace the old political class with him based on his fantastic message of changing Nigeria from a consuming country to a producing one, he might have hit the bull’s eye.
But is it sustainable when the chips are down ?

Willy nilly,all the three under listed leading contenders for the presidency highlighted above will from September 28 try to hoodwink the electorate with outright lies and bogus claims about their accomplishments and thereafter make irresistible promises to provide solutions to a litany of unfulfilled promises made in 2015, 2019 and even in the past.

It may be recalled that immediately after the current ruling party’s candidate , Mohammadu Buhari won the elections in 2015,APC disowned all the lofty promises that it made pre election. It’s excuse is that the phantasmagorical promises were not made by the party, but by supporters who did so without the party’s consent . How convenient.
Why did the party not disclaim the promises pre -election and only did so post election ?

It is a classical example trick of Fake It Till You It which lam seeking to make Nigerians understand in this article.

Right now,Peter Obi, labor party presidential torch bearer has had a head start through his ingenious strategy of campaigning online ahead of other contenders due to the fact that INEC is yet to figure out how to effectively enforce the rules in the electoral act 2022 which has set September 28 as commencement date for campaigns,but election regulatory body did not envisage that campaigns could be taken online as Obi-Dients have been doing without being sanctioned, particularly because the internet which they have maximally utilized to market Peter Obi is a largely ungoverned space.

That has enabled the LP candidate key into the anger of our youths against the incumbent government which they had earlier expressed via the #Endsars protests of October 2020 that threatened our country to its very foundation.

So,basically,Obi-dients,which is the monicker that the labor party candidate’s followers have tagged themselves,in my view, is basically a movement and simply #Endsars 2.0.
In other words ,OBIDIENT movement is #Endsars encore with a smattering of adult buy-in.

And I earnestly believe that Obi’s leadership in popularity amongst the youths is transitory because he is the only one literarily on top of the roof telling Nigerians that he would move the country from consumption to a production economy,which sounds like music to the ears of the electorate , particularly the youths cadre who are largely unemployed and neglected. Because they an axe to grind with government, they seem to have been sucked into the notion of anyone else would be better in Aso Rock Villa than the old politicians.

Right now, Obi is not telling anyone how he would create employment for the youths and boost the empty treasury,reduce galloping inflation,crash the dollar/naira exchange rate and lower petrol pump price and drastically rein in insecurity driven by religious fanaticism and ethnic nationalism triggered by the zero sum politics of the incumbent regime.

Before the end of October which would be about one month of being on the campaign trail by all the candidates,the true leadership in the polls would have been established, and it is doubtful if Peter Obi would still be ahead of the pack as it currently appears,presumably because he has been the only one campaigning since June and therefore enjoys first movers advantage.

A further evidence of Obi’s campaign activities are his ongoing fund raising and campaign stomps in Europe and North America which is raising the eyebrow of INEC and other relevant authorities that are keen to determine the impropriety or otherwise of Obi-Dients activities
since it might be conferring under advantage on the LP presidential candidate as it may imperil the chances of other candidates in the race.

It does not help Peter Obi that his supporters who have been very fiery,have been over selling him via deliberate misinformation and hair- brushing their claims about their candidate’s prowess,here and there.

I have had cause in the past to caution the Obi campaign team against such antics in the past. APC’s Bola Tinubu has also raised objection to tissues of lies allegedly being spread about him by the same suspects,and so also had Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso,the NNPP presidential candidate pushed back on claims made by Obi-dients about the party’s relationship with Obi.

In light of the above, the inability of Obi-Dients to separate facts from fiction may be the Achilles heels of Peter Obi.
But he has been likened by Obi-Dients to Barack Obama, of USA , Emmanuel Macron of France and even the president-elect of Kenya, William Ruto whose elections were against the run of play.
Would their dream materialize?

On the part of Bola Tinubu,as the ruling party’s presidential candidate,he could have been enjoying the benefits of the good legacy that the out going party would have left for the good people of Nigeria to cherish.But unfortunately, the current government in power is leaving a legacy of sorrow, tears and blood ,to borrow a line from a hit song by the late Afro beat king and maestro,Fela Ransom Kuti.
It is one that no right thinking candidate would like to appropriate.

So , lo former APC chairman,Adams Oshiomole has urged Nigerians not to judge Bola Tinubu based on president Mohammadu Buhari’s records which is sordid,no matter how Buharists try to spin it .

But would it not be uncharitable and disingenuous for Tinubu to distance himself from Buhari?

It is telling that Kashim Shettima’s presentation on behalf of his principal,Bola Tinubu at the just concluded Nigerian Bar Association,NBA conference was focused on Tinubu’s accomplishments as lagos state governor and not on APC’s success or lack of it in the governance of Nigeria.

So their agenda would likely be different from the well known APC and Buhari’s agenda.
As such, Tinubu would definitely be walking a tight rope,especially if president Buhari is expected to join in the campaign for Tinubu as a candidate.

How can a presidential candidate of the ruling party distance himself from the outgoing president? That is the proverbial Gordian knot that has to be untied by candidate Tinubu.

To contextualize the dilemma, Al Gore tried to detach himself from the administration that he was aiming to replace in the United States of America, USA,when as Vice President to Bill Clinton, he was contesting to succeed his principal,but distanced himself from his boss owing to the scandal about Clinton’s alleged sexual escapade with Monica Lewinsky,a White House intern, which is an invent that sullied Clinton’s reputation in the twilight days of his watch.
Of course Al Gore failed to become president. Perhaps, not appropriating Clinton’s Sterling records was a contributing factor to his failure.

So how Tinubu would fair with that strategy is demon that he must deal with.

With respect to Turaki Atiku Abubakar, PDP’s standard bearer, he was on the ballot running against the incumbent for the same office in 2019 which is less than 4 years ago.

Therefore, he is building up on the gains that he made in 2019.
Fortuitously,candidate Buhari that he ran against and who garnered about fifteen (15)million votes against Atiku Abubakar’s which was in excess of thirteen (13) million in 2019 will not be on the ballot in 2023.

That should give the former Vice President some heft.

Now,some videos have been trending online wherein allegations that under the watch of PDP presidential candidate as the Vice President to president Olusegun Obasanjo, privatization of government corporations was under his purview.

But instead of acknowledging his critical role in the process of introducing GSM telephony that we are currently enjoying that was introduced by the council that he chaired,what is being held against him is the process of privatizing the petroleum and electricity sectors which were not concluded before their time was up in 2007, hence Nigeria is still suffering from epileptic electricity power supply and the masses struggle to purchase petrol,has remained perennial.

Nasir El rufai,present kaduna state governor and APC chieftain was the Director General , DG of the agency that privatized the corporations which were not doing well. In my reckoning , if Atiku Abubakar influenced him unduly in the privatization exercise, l assume that he would have stated so very clearly in his book:Accidental Public Servant especially since they are now in opposing political camps.

Evidently,Atiku Abubakar may not have influenced the sale of the public assets that were underperforming and a drain on public treasury, and he owns non,just as no known associate of his, has been established to own any. Yet he is still being vilified.

It might interest critics to know that Ajaokuta steel complex which was not privatized is still there rotting away. If it were to be offered for sale today,it would be sold as scrap.
Yet multi billion dollars was invested to setting it up.

Despite that reality, the narrative that the former Vice President sold public assets to himself and cronies which is a fallacy,has some how, remained stuck on the PDP presidential flag bearer like a badge of dishonor.
How he scrubs himself of that blight is a mission he that must accomplish by laying bare for public assessment what he knows about the privatization exercise during his time as Vice President and convince the electorate on how he plans to replicate the superlative turn around of the telecommunications sector now under the firm control of the private sector.

In conclusion, as mr Adams Oshiomole, a former labor leader, one time governor of Edo state, and immediate past chairman of APC told me during the reception at Nduka Obaigbena mum’s funeral in Owa-Oyibu , a couple of weeks ago, Nigerians are faced with the choice of three ‘sinners’ vying for the post of president in 2023 general elections.
He is on point essentially because all the three of the front runner l have held public offices.
That implies that they have all been like fishes swimming in transparent bowls such as an aquarium.

And l have identified the baggages that they are now carrying which indicate that they have been adjudged by Nigerians not to be saints.

Any one pretending to be a Saint amongst them,would be unraveled by the highly discerning and critical masses in the cause of the campaigns which begins in ernest, later this month.

My hunch is that corruption would not be a hot button issue when 2022/23 campaign commences.

And l am predicting that fake news would be a potent weapon of mass deception if the masses to be deployed by unscrupulous politicians mainly because it had worked for them in 2015 and 2019 without repercussions.

Which is why l am alerting Nigerians about the insidious and visceral effects of twisted information on election outcomes as evidenced by their horrendous experience signposted by the series of disappointments arising from failed promises by desperate and deceptive politicians.

I would like to end this dialogue with the aphorism:
“Fool me once,shame on you,fool me twice shame on me” a principle by which l recommend that Nigerians should be guided.
The origin of the expression is from the book “The Court and Character of King James,” written by Anthony Weldon in 1651, where it appears as follows. “The Italians having a Proverb, ‘He that deceives me once, it’s his fault; but if twice,it’s my fault. ‘

The question now is : would the electorate allow despicable politicians that have fooled them before ,fool them once again in 2023 ?
I hope not,because l believe Nigerians have become more politically savvy, therefore they can not afford to be fooled continuously.

Magnus onyibe,an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
To continue with this conversation, please visit www.magnum.ng

September 7, 2022
Wike And The Audacity Of Intransigence – By Magnus Onyibe

As the tortoise is always at the heart of the story in typical African folklores, Nyesom Wike, incumbent governor of Rivers state and ex presidential aspirant of the main opposition party, Peoples Democratic Party, PDP is the tortoise in the story of 2023 general elections.

Although,he had lost the presidential primaries to former Vice President Turaki Atiku Abubakar in the keenly contested presidential primaries held on May 27 in Abuja,Federal Capital Territory, FCT, Wike has managed to hold Nigerians spell bound continuously for a whopping four months since he lost the primaries in a contest that he polled 237 against the winner’s 371 votes, out of a total of 767 votes cast.

Commendably,Wike lost the primaries by a margin of only 134 votes.

And it is presumed that the winning votes came from sokoto state Governor,-Aminu Tambuwal’s camp who through last minute political brinksmanship on the part of the former Vice President,was persuaded to yield his votes to him thus facilitating his win over the Rivers state governor,Wike.

But,even if Wike lost in the primaries,he has actually been winning ,as he has become a beautiful bride being wooed by both his party,PDP, the ruling party at the center, APC and even the wave making LP.

The wooing is so intense that in the past one week,Wike and his allies have been holding court in London.

First,he and his team of three other governors were meeting with Bola Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the APC. Then it was followed by a session with Peter Obi,LP presidential flag bearer,for whom former president Olusegun Obasanjo is reportedly seeking Wike’s hand in a political wedlock.

What really stands out for me with Obasanjo in the mix is how the ex president,who presumably had become apolitical,was in London reportedly trying to sway Wike and his cahoot of governors, including Samuel Ortom of Benue state,Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia state and Seyi Makinde of Oyo state,to the side of Peter Obi.

Just as we thought we had seen it all,PDP presidential candidate,Atiku Abubakar, who against the advise of BOT chairman of PDP, Walid Jibrin,had been reticent about meeting Wike in his Portharcourt home base to assuage his anger,also showed up in London for dinner with Wike to iron out their differences.

That was amazing and stunning!

I will return to how Wike is winning after he lost in the presidential primaries,but first let us dwell a bit on how he narrowly lost to the winner of the contest,former Vice President,Turaki Atiku Abubakar.

Now,it is in the public domain,how the yielding of the votes of governor Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto state to Turaki Atiku Abubakar during the primaries,turned the table against Wike,resulting in his loss in the contest.

And that action which Wike views as betrayal of the highest order is the driving force for his anger which he is expressing by flirting with all manners of political suitors.

But the shenanigans at the party primaries and Wike’s seeming availability to the highest bidder are part of the political game of alignments and re-alignments of forces which are the stuff that horse trading in politics is made of.

Ordinarily,having lost the primaries,Wike should have recoiled into his shell to leak his wounds,as most of the other fellow contestants in the primaries of both parties have done.

To put things in perspective,allow me share my personal experience which will help drive my point home.

At a dinner table with friends recently,l posed a question: who emerged second in the primaries contest conducted by the APC?

It was unsurprising to me that none of my fellow dinners could easily recall that it is Rotimi Amaechi,ex transport minister that came second to Bola Tinubu.

Has anyone heard from Amaechi lately?

Obviously,he has gone into hibernation.

Also,a former senate president,Bukola Saraki and the current Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo,who worked assiduously and were also hopeful of clinching the presidential tickets of their respective parties,PDP and APC lost out by coming third in the contests conducted by their respective parties.

After the political hurly burly,Saraki has has gone under the radar and he has stayed low key as he has not been seen at public events lately, just as Osinbajo,soon after the primaries,checked himself into hospital for surgery on his foot and in the process took time to exhale.

Some Nigerians are contending that a similar attitude or approach should have been adopted by Wike.
But as all fingers are not equal,all things are also not always equal.

So,it would appear as if the current Rivers state governor is being bellicose about his loss,hence he has refused to take things lying low.

A bit of background will throw more light on the origin of the intrigues.

Before,the 2023 primaries which held at about the end May of this year ,Wike and Tambuwal were strong allies who in the 2019 presidential primaries were in the same camp against Atiku Abubakar, Bukola Saraki, lbrahim Dankwambo etc.

Wike who hosted the 2019 primaries in Portharcourt was determined to sway the contest in favor of his then ally,Tambuwal, but for the intervention of the northern establishment,a.k.a Kaduna mafia that sent their representative to physically attend the primaries and convey to Wike their preference of Turaki Atiku Abubakar as PDP presidential candidate.

It is such an irony that there has been a role reversal as Tambuwal,the erstwhile Wike ally is now a political foe,and worse still,the one that dealt him a mortal blow during the primaries for the impending 2023 presidential elections by collapsing his votes into that of Turaki Abubakar to secure victory for the former Vice President.

It reminds me of the narrative in the famous literature book, Macbeth where Brutus ,Julius Ceasar’s best friend whom he ran to for protection from being assassinated by members of his cabinet ,turns out to be the one that dealt his best friend Ceasar,the fatal blow via a vicious stab that finished him off.

According to the fable captured in that iconic literature book,Macbeth,Ceasar was so surprised that his best friend Brutus became so fiendish,that he let out the famous cry ‘et tu brute’.

So,l can imagine Wike exclaiming ‘et tu Tambuwal’ when he discovered that it was his erstwhile ally’s votes that finished him off politically in his quest to be the number one occupant of Aso Rock Villa in 2023.

Of course ,Tambuwal has his reasons for backing Atiku Abubakar, for which the chairman of PDP,lyorchia Ayu hailed him as the hero of democracy.

And just as that accolade for Tambuwal by Ayu appear like pouring gasoline into a burning fire,Wike appears hell bent on getting his pound of flesh from the party, and particularly,the chairman,Ayu who he is determined to force to resign.

Consequently,instead of allowing Atiku Abubakar to savor his victory after emerging as the PDP presidential candidate since end of May,which is roughly four (4) months ago,Wike has been like a dog in the manger.

Thus,he has literally been grinding Atiku Abubakar’s nose on the stone by not allowing him to get on with moving the party forward in its quest to be the next ruling party at the centre and himself as the prime occupant of Aso Rock Villa seat of presidential power in 2023.

As governor Wike and former Vice President,Abubakar have finally crossed the proverbial rubicon by meeting in London,not Portharcourt or Abuja,the question on everyone’s lips now is: what next?

While the outcome of Atiku Abubakar and Nyesom Wike London parley appears to be cheery,as both sides were seen coming out of the dinner meeting wearing broad smiles,but with Wike being like Houdini-the famous magician who can easily pull a rabbit out of a hat,if his demands are not met,who next would Wike romance in order to make Atiku Abubakar green with envy and act like a lover whose aggrieved bride is on the verge of breaking up their engagement by openly flirting with his rivals?

Would Atiku Abubakar meet the Wike conditionalities (of which l won’t speculate since they are nebulous) but which are believed to be as stringent as the lMF loan?

And does Wike have any more Cupid arrows in his quivers to fire should the Wike/Abubakar presumed agreement collapse?

Guess what,history has a way of repeating itself as Atiku Abubakar has travelled on a similar lane before.

To put things in context,allow me cast our minds back to 2003 to draw a parallel between Vice President Atiku Abubakar and president Olusegun Obasanjo presidential primaries imbroglio when OBJ was seeking the hands of his party for re-election mandate,and the present situation whereby Atiku is seeking to become president and Nyesom Wike is constituting a stumbling block in a bid to settle scores or be a major stakeholder in the next government .

The circumstances may not be exactly the same,but the intrigues are strikingly similar.

It may be recalled that in 2003,as former president Olusegun Obasanjo was concluding his first term in office,some governors within then ruling PDP resolved not to lend their support to Obasanjo for a second term bid for the office president of Nigeria.

Instead of Obasanjo,they were poised to channel their support to then Vice President Atiku Abubakar who they believe had the wherewithal,since they were unhappy with Obasanjo OBJ’s dictatorial tendencies in the manner that he was administering the country in somewhat draconian ways,perhaps owing to his military background.

After then chairman of PDP,chief Audu Ogbe made OBJ aware of the stance of the revolting governors that he was “unmarketable and unelectable” as such, he would not be given the mandate for a second term,high wire politicking,such as what is currently being witnessed between Wike and Atiku was triggered.

The rest they say is history,as it was reported in the grapevine that OBJ went on his knees or genuflected to beseech then Vice President Atiku Abubakar to reason with him in his quest for a second term and help persuade the renegade governors as it were,to have mercy on him by allowing him enjoy the privilege of a second term.

In other words,OBJ stooped to conquer.

After the initial bluster,he had his way by getting re-elected for a second term.

But thereafter,it would appear that for daring to constitute a threat to his second term bid,there has been,and continues to be very dire consequences for then Vice President,Atiku Abubakar and others who he deems to have conspired against him.

As if on a revenge mission,OBJ succeeded in stopping Atiku Abubakar from succeeding him in 2007.

Subsequently,he has written very vile things about the man who served as Vice President under him in his book: My Watch which would ordinarily make Nigerians not touch the former Vice President with a barge pole or make the electorate dine with him with a long spoon. But the electorate seem to have figured out that it is a matter of personal vendetta by the former president against his vice.

In spite of that potential damage ,Atiku Abubakar garnered about 13 million votes in 2019 presidential race against the incumbent president’s 15 million votes. And the PDP presidential flag bearer intends to build upon that 13 million votes in the coming election and hopefully in light of the expanded voters base as the youths are now taking politics seriously by registering massive to vote in the 2023 elections,an additional 3 -5 million more votes would propel him into Aso Rock villa in 2023.

Astonishingly,Atiku Abubakar’s spectacular showing at the 2019 presidential polls which is remarkable has not deterred former president Obasanjo from continuing to savage the former Vice President’s image by stating in multiple media interviews that God won’t forgive him,if he supports the former Vice President,Atiku Abubakar’s quest to become president of Nigeria.

So,it is in that context that OBJ’s showing up in London to broker a deal between Wike and Peter Obi,the LP presidential candidate with a view to undermining Atiku Abubakar’s quest for the presidency should be situated.
It suggests or implies that the former president has remained unrelenting about quashing the former Vice President’s presidential ambition,one more time in 2023.

But would he succeed this time around ?

As the wise crack goes: revenge is sweet when served cold and OBJ seems resolute in his quest to take his pound of flesh from those that he deems to have been a clog in his wheel of political progress in 2003.

And that explains why the former president has obviously remained on a war path about twenty (20) years after he survived what he might have considered to be treachery against him.

Hence ,shortly after returning to office for a second term ,he visited then PDP Chairman,Audu Ogbe in his house where he shared a meal of pounded yam with him.

Thereafter,for daring to be the purveyor of the bad news from the governors who initially resisted his second term,the sack of then PDP chairman,Audu Ogbe was announced the very next day after they shared the meal.

Subsequently,OBJ who is largely adjudged by those who have crossed swords with him as being very unforgiving,took on all the other suspects or culprits in the attempt to upstage him in 2003, one by one.

And many watchers of politics in Nigeria ascribe the travails and political witch hunt of former Delta State governor, chief James lbori to his prime role in the attempt to stop OBJ from having a second term in 2003.

Given the well documented litany of misfortunes that befell those that tried to scuttle OBJ’s bid for re-election in 2003,should Wike and the three governors ,supporting his intransigence,as it were,not be careful or more circumspect about the war that they are fighting today, so that it may not turn around to hurt them tomorrow ?

It is not only with Atiku Abubakar,but Wike has been in dalliance with Bola Tinubu,Peter Obi and Musa Kwankwanso.

Can his decision be fair to all of them at the same time ?

For sure ,Wike is certainly enjoying his new popularity or is it notoriety?

With three (3) of the twelve (12) PDP governors of states in the trenches with him,Wike packs a significant punch in terms of ability to bring voters to the table.

That is what is magnetizing suitors to him as bees are attracted to nectar.

But, wait a minute!

Is the magic sustainable and is he not burning too many bridges and courting too many enemies?
To be specific, would he survive when he exits the office of the governor of Rivers state in May 29, 2023?

Fortunately, Atiku Abubakar is believed to not be vindictive.

Magnus onyibe,an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
To continue with this conversation, please visit www.magnum.ng

August 30, 2022
Facts And Fiction About Nollywood’s Incursion Into 2023 Gubernatorial Elections

There is a general belief universally that perception often times can become reality. And better still,the notion that movies can mimic life and vice versa is also not a rarity across the world.

The notion above would likely come to pass in Nigeria when the trio of Funke Akindele, in lagos,Tonto Dike in Portharcourt and Caroline (Hutchins) Danjuma in Akwa lbom,who are movie actors, become deputy governors in their respective states in the manner that Volosdymyr Zelensky,a reality television show actor, who acted as president in a Ukrainian situation comedy ,truly became the president of Ukraine in reality in 2019.

Before Zelensky,Ronald Reagan,a movie star, had become the 40th president of the United States of America,USA in 1981.
So also did Arnold Swarzenegger-a body builder turned movie star end up as the 38th governor of the state of California in the same USA,in 2003.

Most recently,Donald Trump,the 45th president of the USA (2017-2021) was the host of a popular reality tv show – The Apprentice after which he ran for the office of the president and thus played the role of undisputed leader of the world for four years.

Prior to the present situation in Nigeria, the drama in politics in our clime was confined to colorful and melodramatic goofs or gaffes like the one credited to the likes of Kingsley Ozumba Mbadiwe (Ambassador Plenipotentiary) who is known for his bombastic grammar such as : man of timber and caliber,Iroko and Obeche-the last two words being names of tree types that he added to ignite humor.

Another source of political humor back in the days ,is the speech attributed to Barkin Zuwo-one time governor of Kano state who in response to a reporter’s question on the type of mineral resources that can be found in his state,he reportedly listed Coca-Cola and Fanta which is a gaffe as the reporter was actually making enquiries about solid natural mineral resources.
That made him a butt of jokes in both the political circles and the larger society.
On why there is student unrest,(crisis like riots by students) the same Barkin Zuwo is said to have responded thus: “how can student rest when they are sent to school to read and not rest?“

How can we forget sir Adegoke Adelabu,the strong man of lbadan politics,nicknamed PENKELEMESl?
He became the butt of jokes after he was believed to have mis-pronounced peculiar mess as:PENKELEMESI.

Remarkably and evidently,humor arose from the goofs and gaffes made by politicians from all the three major tribes-lgbo,Yoruba and Hausa/Fulani.

While the humor offered comic relief which is a necessary ingredient for reducing the tension associated with politicking,whether the attributions are correct or figments of imagination of fertile minds is a different kettle of fish.

Not until the commencement of the 2022/2023 political season,little or no real political drama had been witnessed since the return of multi party democracy in Nigeria in 1999.

Except of course,the political musical chairs that happened between 2013-14 when a coalition of opposition political parties-CPC,ACN,ANPP, splinters of APGA and nPDP coalesced into one party,APC with the sole objective of ousting then ruling party at the center,PDP.

Nearly eight (8) years after that massive cross carpeting phenomenon that created a political ruckus ,the next evolution appears to be the unfolding incursion of Nollywood into the political milieu as our country count down to 2023 general elections.

And the potentiality of blending Nollywood into politics is signposted by the emergence of Funke Akindele,as the deputy governorship candidate for the main opposition party,PDP in Lagos state.
Of course,the Nollywood actress needs no introduction in the world of entertainment.
But in politics,she is yet to,and only about to cut her teeth.

Just as l was trying to come to terms with that reality,having been informed by reliable sources that it is not a practical joke,l learnt that another nollywood thespian ,Caroline (Hutchins) Danjuma has thrown her hat into the ring as the deputy governorship candidate for African Action Congress,AAC in Akwa lbom state.

And before l could regain my consciousness or wrap my head around the stunning revelation,another giddying news came from Rivers state. And it is to the effect that Tonto Dikeh,the nollywood ‘enfant terrible’ has also become the deputy governorship candidate of African Democratic Congress Party,ADC in that state.

While,the emergence of Ms Danjuma and Ms Dike as running mates to the governorship flag bearers in Akwa Ibom and Rivers states respectively was digestible,(simply because the parties that are featuring them are fringe and it can be assumed that those parties are just fulfilling all righteousness) fielding Ms Akindele by the PDP -the former ruling party at the center and currently the main opposition party in Nigeria,beats my imagination.

That is simply because it defies established political calculations that lagos which is the political base of APC presidential candidate,Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu would be surrendered to his total dominance, rather than working towards splitting the votes in favor of the flag bearer of the main opposition party,PDP Turaki Atiku Abubakar.

Relying on basic instincts,pushing candidates that have the capacity to win the votes of lagosians in other to erode or weaken Bola Tinubu’s and strengthen Atiku Abubakar’s chances in lagos would have been the prime goal of PDP strategists.
Had that been the case,rather than being experimental by fielding two new comers in politics,tried and tested candidates could have been put on the ballot to square off with the incumbent governor.

That is simply because Political wisdom dictates that PDP’s Turaki Atiku Abubakar needed to make sure that his party literally puts forward its best foot,so that some voters in lagos can be swung to the side of PDP ,especially if it leverages on the strategy of consolidating the previous gains made by it’s candidates in lagos state .

That line of thought is underscored and validated by the fact that the former Vice President who was PDP’s candidate in 2019 is being allowed to take another shot at the presidency in 2023 with the hope that he would capitalize on the gains (about 13m votes) which he had garnered when he contested for the presidency in 2019.

So why the 2019 governorship and deputy governorship candidates of PDP in lagos state are not offered a similar opportunity,do not add up,for an election watcher like me.

Also,the new data from Independent National Election Commission,lNEC which reveals that,of the over twelve (12)million voters recently registered country wide in the current wave of voter registration,
which suggests keen interest by Nigerians in the political process via massive acquisition of Permanent Voters Card, PVC, lagos state is home to a lion share of newly registered voters.

As an aside,while the new voting reality of a new class of voters who are mainly youths represents a threat to Tinubu’s continued supremacy in lagos state politics,it is an opportunity for Peter Obi and his Labor Party,LP that is enjoying magnetic attraction to youths,and to some extent,also useful to Atiku Abubakar who also enjoys youth followers-ship.

In fact,based on statistics from INEC,lagos and kano states where the bulk of the new registrants reside,constitute the key voting blocs in Nigeria as they are home to the largest number of both old and new registered voters in our country.

Incidentally,they are also both APC controlled states where PDP and other parties are patently weak.

So,for the reason of pragmatism,the PDP ought to have paid more attention to who becomes the gubernatorial and deputy gubernatorial candidates in the state by ensuring that they pack the political power or posses the clout to make significant impact in a state considered to be APC power base in the past 23 years which is since the return of multi party democracy in Nigeria.

For context,can you imagine the APC in Delta state fielding Great Ogboru ,a notable politician as governorship candidate and the show biz impresario, Ali Baba whose real name is Atunyota Alleluya Akpobeme as deputy governorship candidate,on account of the fact that Ali Baba has huge social media following,so PDP has the capacity of winning delta state governorship contest ?
Keeping in mind that just as lagos state has been in the grips of APC since 1999, delta state is equally lock-stock-and-barrel, a PDP enclave,how can untested hands defeat the incumbents that are entrenched?

In my estimation,the scenario described above makes the gambit of fielding two inexperienced candidates for the gubernatorial elections in lagos state an extraordinarily calamitously flawed predilection and evidence of the vaulting ambition of PDP in APC home base.

On the other hand,it may be argued that the PDP did it’s due diligence,as such it knows what we the skeptics probably can not see from afar.
And that is that no matter who is fielded,the PDP has no chance in APC controlled state.

Hence it dumped its gubernatorial candidate in the past two election circles,(2015 and 2019) Mr Jimi Agbaje for Dr Olajide Adeniran better known as ‘Jandor’.who is the convener of the popular Lagos4Lagos Movement and currently trading barbs with lagos state governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu.

Like two pugilists that are already in a ring and about to engage in a boxing duel, both the incumbent and the PDP challenger are looking like two bulldogs snarling before tearing at each other’s jugular.

The replacement of the former candidates with the new pair could also be that the PDP believes that the new team could literally pull a rabbit out of the hat by surprising skeptics like us.
But whatever the case may be , pundits are averring that the opposition in lagos state is not formidable enough to rattle the incumbent governor,my good friend Sanwo-Olu, who is having a double wammy of good fortune.

The first good fortune is that by God’s grace he has been deemed as worthy of a second term(in a state where it has become an anathema) by his principal,APC presidential candidate,Bola Tinubu.

Secondly,he also has the good luck of facing an apparently weak challenge from the PDP whose gubernatorial candidate and running mate are not tried and tested in the politics of lagos state,having not won any political party elections from the wards,local government councilorship,and chairmanship as well as state house of assembly levels,how much more governorship.

The probable reason that the aforementioned movie actors are being fielded for those high offices is attributable to the notion that politics in Nigeria seem to have pivoted from analogue to digital realms.

That is reflected by the seizure of Nigerian political space by Gen Z(youth generation) also known as netizens who are railing against old generation politicians with a view to outwit them in the political game of 2023 general elections.

The dramatic development is evidential of the fact that our democracy is undergoing a significant political revolution,which is courtesy of the changes wrought on the system by the electoral act 2022- transparency and fidelity-which have been conferred on the process of recruiting politicians in Nigeria.

Impliedly and fortuitously,the confidence that going forward,votes would count in political parties elections,has given fillip and wings to the desire of former skeptics that were giving a wide berth to party politics ,due to its erstwhile murky and opaque nature,to jump into the fray.
And it is also emblematic of the fact that the world of make-believe is gradually morphing into the existential reality of life in Nigeria.

It is particularly jarring to me that the leadership of our beloved country has descended so low to the extent that Nigeria can now be likened to a comedy show such as “Fuji House Of Commotion” which is a local television show that featured ace comedian,Kunle Bamtefa,where the fictional family is constantly embroiled in commotions.
That such riotous and rancorous atmosphere is the current reality rather than the exception in the leadership of our beloved country, is gut wrenching.

As such,no matter how odd,any group of Nigerians that are patriotic enough to harbor the ambition of helping to salvage our country is,it should be welcome.

That is the prism from which the incursion of Nollywood into politics is being processed by me and l presume other open minded Nigerians.

God forbid that Nigeria finds herself in a situation whereby it is fighting a war with a comedian such as my good friend Ali Baba,or Okey Bakasi,Mr Macaroni and even Mr Ibu as the Commander-In-Chief of the Armed Forces in the manner that Zelensky is leading his country,Ukraine in the war being waged against it by Russia.

In such an unlikely event whereby fantasy becomes reality,l would be damned,if the aforementioned comedians do not do as well as Ukrainian President (former comedian),Zelensky is doing as Commander-ln-Chief, C-In-C of the Armed Forces of his country.

By all accounts,Zelensky,the comedian turned president has effectively managed to turn the war between his country and Russian into a narrative of the biblical David and Goliath contest with Ukraine as the David and with a humungous Supper Powers support to booth.

Given the success so far recorded by Zelensky,perhaps if we had one of our comedians in Aso Rock Villa seat of presidential power,Nigeria might not have been experiencing the current atrocious rate of insecurity of lives and properties rapidly dragging the country to the ignoble conflict and misery levels comparable to the atmosphere of brute obtainable in Afghanistan; neither would there exist the overwhelming pang of hunger and starvation presently ravaging our compatriots owing to the inability of our leaders to steer the ship of state away from the rapids which it is heading dangerously towards.

After all,it is generally believed that solutions to complex issues can sometimes be found in ordinary people and in simple or odd places.

As we are all aware ,our country is presently literally being held on tenterhooks,and if the requisite action is not taken to stop the ship of state from heading towards the precipice, there could be a ship wreck of catastrophic proportions.

With respect to the phenomenon or as the case may be ,the phantom of politics in Nigeria transiting into the orbit/virtual realm as being contended by its purveyors,it is such a striking development that the number of followers of an individual on social media handles is now being used to determine the electability of political office seekers.

That is as opposed to the traditional and erstwhile system of physically wooing the electorates via good deeds- perceived or real- and knocking on the doors of potential voters by those seeking elective public offices.

Anyway,when 2022/23 electioneering campaign season officially commences in September,we would know for real whether politicking virtually is real politick or mere ‘politricks’

In spite of opinions to the contrary,those who have made it possible for the movie actors to become deputy gubernatorial candidates believe,wrongly or otherwise that there has been a paradigm shift in Nigerian politics such that the platform has been transferred from normal space to the virtual world.

That is likely why the social media follower-ship of the three thespians under reference which run into millions are the criteria for choosing running mates to the gubernatorial candidates in Lagos,
Rivers and Akwa Ibom states as opposed to real life political capacity based on antecedents.

Take for instance the data below concocted to create the warped impression that social media follower-ship can be translated into political strength for political office candidates and with which they intend to win the election in 2023.
(A)Mrs Funke Akindele – 15.5m followers
(B)Ms Tonto Dikeh-7.5m
(C)Asiwaju Bola Tinubu-103,000
(D)Mr Peter Obi-168,000
(E)Turaki Atiku Abubakar-434,000
(F)Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu-600,000

Going by the figures above,if Funke Akindele’s 15.5m followers is matched against Bola Tinubu’s 103,000 and Atiku Abubakar’s 434,000,and Peter Obi’s 168,000,she would win the 2023 elections. And if she were to decide to contest for the presidency against the APC,PDP and LP presidential front runners,Tinubu, Abubakar and Obi respectively,she would be the president of Nigeria in 2023.

Off course ,such permutations have no bearing with reality basically because online follower-ship of celebrities by Nigerians can not be equated with real life follower-ship of politicians that translates into votes following the conduct of elections by the lndependent National Electoral Commission,INEC.

Anyway,in fairness to the movie stars who l commend for their confidence and boldness in putting themselves forward for public office contest,and perhaps taking the lead from other climes,particularly the USA where a plethora of those in the entertainment industry have transformed into politicians; also due to their patriotic zeal of desiring to serve our country,it could be argued in favor of Nollywood actors that the world of politicians,even in Nigeria has really never been too distinctive from what obtains in moviedom.

That is simply because the activities of politicians all over the world,in most cases,are make-believe.

The assertion above is underscored by the fact that it is often alleged that when they are campaigning to win over the electorates,politicians pretend to be the angels that they are not in order to gain the confidence and possibly love of voters.

That is also what movie actors do when they are manifesting their roles to keep their audience enthralled and captivated into seeing them as who they are really not .

Arising from the above ,it is safe to conclude that both political actors and movie actors are often deliberately presenting images of who they really are not in order to capture and retain the imagination of their audiences in the real world and in moviedom.

And the underlining reason for such assessment is that just as political actors regale the electorates with fantastic promises that they plan not to fulfill,the movie actors thrill their audiences with the false prowess that make them look like super humans.

It is a mindset or belief amongst members of the public about politicians that is reinforced by the aphorism: “campaign in poetry and govern in prose” and which is a phraseology that was first used by one time governor of the state New York,Mario Cuomo to illustrate the failure of some politicians to keep campaign promises.

Relatedly,some movie actors often assume the characters that they play in the flicks in which they act,and more often than not,they fail or forget to return to reality.
Take for instance,late Bruce Lee,Jackie Chan,Sylvester Stallone etc.

Put differently,political actors and movie actors are pretenders to who they are not.
So they can be said to be different sides of the same coin and it is the reason that most Nigerians may not be able to continue to separate one from the other.

Today,our country appears to be on the cusp of witnessing the world of political actors and movie actors blending into the same in the firmaments of politics.

Arising from the above scenarios ,could the three referenced thespians that are aspiring to become deputy governors in Lagos,Rivers and Akwa Ibom states be victims of exaggerated self importance arising from their social media following or they are filing a void that they have genuinely identified in the political space and feel they should step up to the plate?

Until the elections are held and called next year,we may not know for sure what is the driving force or the motivation for the three damsels from moviedom,jumping into the murky water of politics.

Could their adventurous move from show biz into demagoguery be backed with a realistic assessment of the prevailing political environment in our country buoyed by the electoral act 2022 which has conferred fidelity on the electoral system and sparked the interest of more Nigerian youths,or it is just a whimsical feeling ?

After all said and done,and in tandem with the wise crack “the more the merrier”,the incursion of Nollywood into politics is welcome,especially since it is associated with glamor which would spur more Nigerians, especially Gen-Z or our youths of voting age,into getting involved in exercising their civic responsibilities of choosing their preferred leaders via the ballot box.

And l can not wait to see the outcome of the PDP experiment in lagos state which in my view would be a litmus test for Nollywood incursion into politics in Nigeria.
So,I am holding my breathe!

Magnus onyibe,an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
To continue with this conversation, please visit www.magnum.ng

August 25, 2022
Presidency 2023, Obi-Dients and Weaponization Of Christianity – By Magnus Onyibe

One thing for sure is that with the active participation of our youths in the 2022/23 general elections,politics in Nigeria will take a new dimension and never be the same again.

One of the first impact or change being foisted by Gen-Z is that politics has currently been pivoted from real life to virtual reality where our youths rule the roost.

However,the game of politics will change when political campaigns commence next month (September) after Independent National Electoral Commission,INEC,based on its election timetable,green lights campaigns.
By that time,action would shift from online to real life,where the so called old generation politicians,would reign supreme with mega campaign rallies coupled with the efforts of the foot soldiers-governors,legislators,ministers and a galaxy of other government appointees that would be embarking on door-to-door consultations with the electorate.

That is when there will be a test of the will of the bulging youth population in Nigeria that has unprecedentedly seized the political momentum by registering massively and obtaining their Permanent Voters Card,PVC with which they are planning to vote in 2023 in order to retire those that they refer to as old politicians who they accuse of preventing them from benefiting from their common patrimony in the period that they have been at the helm of affairs.

As a pragmatist,l have pointed out to our youths in the past that the so called old generation politicians that they intend to displace are like old foxes that can hardly be outsmarted. So they should focus on graduated take over with a possibility of achieving their goal in 2027

That is because it would take more than the first cut which is said to be the deepest, to dislodge the current political class from the political stage.
And l would like to assure our youths that some of the political grandees are willing to exit the stage.
At least Turaki Atiku Abubakar, presidential flag bearer of the PDP has alluded to that in his recent public comments.

And,l am also obliged to intimate the youths that the elders that are currently bestriding the political space would prefer a proper succession plan which l would like to admonish our youths to work towards negotiating with them,as opposed to planning to maliciously or malevolently kicking them out as they appear to be planning.

Also,since members of Gen-Z appear to be so fixated on joining the new fangled Obe-dient movement of which the name of God is being invoked in vain as mr Peter Obi’s emergence as Labor Party,LP 2023 Presidential candidate is being touted (in my view falsely) as a phenomenon endorsed by God; and a chapter in the Bible -Ephesians 6:5 where the word obedient is mentioned is being used to justify the call for Christian’s to vote for Obi: l would like to stick to the trending ‘God’ narrative by leveraging data from Christendom in an analogy to drive home the point about the handicap that the Obi-dients face in their vaulting quest to catapult Obi into Aso Rock Villa in 2023.

According to a study published by the Vatican and also corroborated by Pew report,the population of Catholics all over the world is in the neighborhood of 17-18% of the world population estimated to be 8 billion.
“The Catholic churches form a denomination within Christianity and,with around 1.3 billion believers worldwide, are the largest Christian grouping”.

For the sake of this analogy,the old generation politicians in Nigeria can be likened to members of the traditional religion like Catholics that have been around for over 2000 years and the oldest institution in the Western world.

Conversely,Pentecostals represent
about “8.3 percent of the world population. That means that one in twelve persons today is a pentecostal or charismatic Christian.”

The statistics above is drawn from the World Christian Encyclopedia,3rd edition (2020) which states that there are currently “644 million Pentecostals/Charismatics worldwide,including all the members of Pentecostalism’s 19,300 denominations and fellowships as well as all charismatic Christians whose primary affiliation is with other churches.”
And l would like for the purpose of this analogy to designate our youths or so called Obi-dients as the Pentecostals that have been around for 50 years compared to the institution of Catholicism that is at least 2000 years old.

When 1.3 billion Catholics which l have likened to old generation politicians is matched against 644 million Pentecostals,that l have tagged as our youths or Obi-dients,the old generation politicians more than double the number of Obi-dients.
The conclusion to be drawn from the analogy above and what readers should ponder is: can the Obi-dients out number,out maneuver or over take the old politicians in Nigeria,just like that ?

I think not !

Simply put,although in recent years,the number of Pentecostals in Nigeria has grown in leaps and bounds,it can not eclipse the Catholics over night.
So also would Gen-Z not defeat at the snap of the finger the old school politicians that have become entrenched.

That is the prism from which l am interrogating the Peter Obi quest to become the next number one Aso Rock Villa occupant in 2023.

As l have brought to the attention of youths in my previous interventions on the same issue,our youths should remember the dictum ‘old soldier never dies’

In my reckoning ,therein lies the dilemma after the conduct of a reality check on the feasibility of Peter Obi’s presidency in 2023 is made,and a question which our youths must ponder.

Of course l am not by any stretch of imagination proposing that the youth phenomenon and Peter Obi effect on the 2023 general elections would not be significant.

In fact,the high impact is evidenced by the prevailing political evolution triggered by the injection of youths and Nollywood into the 2023 political milieu.

That by itself is likely to compel a run-off in the presidential election to be held in February next year as no single political party may be able to win 2/3rd majority votes outrightly as demanded by the 1999 constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria which stipulates that for a party to be empowered and single handedly be entitled to be the ruling party at the center,2/3rd majority of votes must be won with across the country spread.

If that is the only difference that Gen-Z and Obi-dients would have wrought on Nigerian politics,when the hurly burly is done and after the electioneering process is over,then they would have convincingly earned themselves the title of the heroes of democracy in 2023.

It may be recalled that before Nigeria’s independence from British colonial rule in 1960,general elections were held in 1959,but they were inconclusive as none of the political parties was able to secure enough votes to meet the 2/3rd majority threshold which is a constitutional requirement.

According to records,NPC garnered 142 ,while NCNC had 89 and Action Group,AG won 73 seats. The numbers were not enough for each of the parties to form government alone.

Consequently,a coalition government had to be formed between NPC,as the senior partner with sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa from Bauchi state as the prime minister, and Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe from Anambra state ,as President, representing NCNC which was the junior partner.

My crystal ball tells me that a similar situation to what obtained in 1959/60 may arise after the much anticipated 2023 general elections.

Should the above permutation materialize,history would not only be repeating itself,but there would be a fortuitous reset for our beloved country,politically.

That assumption is underpinned by the fact that it would compel politicians to share power equitably as opposed to the present situation whereby the president from the platform of a ruling party that is not partnering with other parties have total control,such that he could solely determine who gets what.

If he is a clannish and religiously bigoted president,he would assign all the critical positions to members of his ethnic group and religious leaning.
That is incidentally the justification for the unnerving agitation for power shift and presidency rotation as well as restructuring of the political system currently wracking our dear country

While not being unmindful of the fallout of Muslim-Muslim presidency ticket by the ruling APC and the riling up of Christians who feel that they are about to be erased from Aso Rock Villa if APC is voted back with Muslim president and Vice President,l worry about the consequences of weaponizing Christianity by Obi and his supporters who have been visiting churches-Dr Paul Enenche’s Dunamis church in Abuja and Pa Enoch Adeboye’s Redeem Christian Church of God Camp in lagos -where men and women of God have been giving him rousing welcome, even as some online video footages of pastors where they are quoting Bible verses to validate their support for the LP candidate have been trending.

Thus wittingly and unwittingly,the church is being dragged into the arena of politics in Nigeria which in my view bodes no good to the body of Christ as it might amount to desecrating the house of God and it could even set Christians and Muslims on a collision path. More so as it has the tendency to exacerbate the negative energy which the APC standard bearer Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his running mate,Kashim Shettima, Muslim-Muslim ticket is already eliciting.

Contrast mr Obi’s cavorting with men and women of God in their sanctuaries alongside their congregation to the presidential candidates of the three other political parties-Bola Ahmed Tinubu,Atiku Abubakar and Musa Rabiu Kwakwanso that are front runners and Muslims,but are not directly or indirectly campaigning in mosques.
Not even Peter Obi’s running mate senator Datti Ahmed,also a Muslim is openly visiting mosques to lobby fellow Muslims,directly or indirectly.

I recognize and commend mr Obi’s determination to appear detribalized by making his quest for the presidency a pan-Nigeria initiative,hence he has resisted attempts to make his campaign an lgbo agenda by distancing himself from Ohaneze Ndigbo,Indigenous People of Biafra,IPoB and other lgbo-centric agendas,which is good.

Nevertheless ,l would like to respectfully advise mr Peter Obi’s camp to borrow a leaf or two from the 44th president of the United States of America,USA,Barack Obama who avoided being cocooned into becoming or being cast as a black candidate during his run for the office of president in 2008 by dissociating himself from rhetorical comments about his race by the pastor of the church in Chicago where he worships.

The deployment of that strategy helped
in many ways to bolster Obama’s ‘there is no such thing as Black ,Brown or White America’ element in his famous speech to the Democratic Party convention as he was commencing his race to the White House which he won in 2009.

Also,does the LP flag bearer’s romance with the churches not vitiate his strategy of detaching himself from the lgbos,and could it not pitch Christians who are showing open preference for him against Muslims who may be wary and therefore cast their votes against Obi’s run for the presidency even when one of their own is Obi’s running mate?

Without a doubt,the presidential candidates of the other political parties who are Muslims are consulting and courting members of their faith,but in more nuanced ways.
Is there nothing in the approach of other presidential flag bearers to guide Obi’s camp? Can ‘Obi-Dients’ be less noisome and more strategically subtle?

If Obi comes across to Nigerians as solely enjoying the confidence of Christians,how about lfeanyi Okowa,governor of Delta state and vice presidential candidate of the PDP who is also a Christian?
Would Christians ditch him?

Now,if per adventure Obi fails to win the presidency in 2023,would there not be a backlash of credibility issues in Christendom since some pastors have been openly prophesying that God has ordained Obi to be president ?

How can we avert a repeat of the negative fall outs of the infamous Reverend Father Mbaka prophecy about the 2015 and 2019 Mohammadu Buhari victorious run for the presidency and the saga of the charismatic priest thumping down Peter Obi ,on account of his alleged tight handedness,when he worshipped with him in Adoration Centre as the running mate of Atiku Abubakar for the presidency of Nigeria in 2019?

With all sense of humility,l urge the Christian Association of Nigerian,CAN to please take note.

Magnus onyibe,an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
To continue with this conversation, please visit www.magnum.ng

August 17, 2022
Moment of truth as Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket tests Nigeria’s unity – By Magnus Onyibe

Right now, the choice of presidential and Vice Presidential candidates for the 2023 general elections in Nigeria is the number one horror afflicting the psyche of Nigerians.

It is so much so that if a nation wide public opinion were to be conducted right now, the tendency that majority of Nigerians would tick-off the box concerning the tension arising from the presidential candidate of the ruling party at the center, APC Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s choice of Kashim Shetima as running mate for the 2023 presidential contest as their biggest concern in this present time is very high.

That is most especially if the opinion poll were to be conducted amongst members of the Christian and Muslim faiths to whom it has become a supremacy battle more than members of the political class.

And the distress is not only from the ruling party at the centre, APC.

To a lesser degree,the main opposition party,PDP’s decision to jettison the presidency rotation principle that the party had practiced since 1999, and throw it open to all the zones which has enabled its 2019 presidential candidate ,Turaki Atiku Abubakar to clinch it; is also a source of prickly heat and discontentment amongst voters,especially in the south-east and south-south zones of the country which have been the traditional stronghold of the party.

While the irritations caused by what critics see as an volte-face by the PDP is less caustic,the Muslim-Muslim ticket being presented by the APC is justifiably on the lips of every Nigerian-both politically conscious and religion sensitive.

Even as some deem the Muslim-Muslim presidential candidacy as a non issue,a lot see it as toxic and corrosive,depending on their religion and ethnic biases. This is as opposed to resorting to partisanship which used to be the main criteria for supporting or opposing presidential and vice presidential candidates.

In fact,as the issue of religion has been dragged into the political mix ,following the introduction of a Muslim-Muslim ticket for the presidency by Tinubu and Shettima,and since the faith composition of Nigerians is more or less a balanced equation of 50/50’, who becomes president of Nigeria,now matters to all of us-politicians and those that were apolitical.

Hence it is being discussed amongst a vast majority of Christians and Muslims alike in churches and mosques as well.

Before now,choosing a vice presidential candidate was just a routine chore for presidential candidates.And the equation was simple because it was always about walking the fine lines of religion and ethnicity. While the framers and writers of 1999 constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria were conscious of the religious and ethnic fault lines which have now widened into a gulf,they did not factor it into or incorporate it in our country’s statutes book expressly,so that crossing the line via a Muslim-Muslim or Christian-Christian ticket would be an outright violation and contravention of the laws of land.Instead of incorporating it into the constitution,it was not codified, but only recognized and treated as a mere understanding.

It is in pursuance of that balance that the religious sensitivities of Nigerians who are sharply divided along the lines of the two predominant faiths- Christianity and lslam, that when a Christian emerges as a presidential candidate,a muslim was chosen as the vice presidential candidate,and vice versa.

That was the case when after independence,and our country was operating a parliamentary system, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa became prime minister.And to strike a balance,Nnamdi Azikiwe became Governor General. It did not matter that the office of the former was executive,while that of the latter was merely ceremonial.

Some Nigerians still romanticize that period of parliamentary system of government 1960-66 which they fondly refer to with nostalgia as the ‘golden age’ of Nigeria that they would love our beloved country to return,if they can literally push back the hands of time.

That aspiration is underscored by the fact that back in those days,there was healthy competition amongst the four regions in our country and development,progress and prosperity of the people in respective the regions reflected the amount of vigor and acumen applied in harnessing and managing the natural resources endemic in each of them.That is because Nigeria was basically a natural resource exporting country to Europe and the rest of the world.

As such,the north was doing its utmost best to grow and harvest Cotton that was grown in Funtua area of katsina state that was feeding the textile miles in kaduna, the headquarter of the region.And that engagement was creating employment and generating revenue for the government via taxes.

Groundnut farming and processing into vegetable /edible oil was also flourishing in the northern region as it is also native to the zone and therefore a veritable employment creator via the factories and another major source of tax income.

A similar scenario was also present in the eastern region where oil palm was its main stay,and coal from the mines endemic in the area sustained the economy that was booming in and around Enugu,the headquarter of the region.The western region with cocoa as its main cash crop,and which was the commodity that attracted the highest premium,was the most buoyant.Owing to its high market value in the international market,cocoa farmers were prosperous and practically all the forests in the western region were being cultivated for cocoa to boost the income of the region.

And the Return- On-Investment ,ROI was quite significant.

Hence the western region became head and shoulder above other regions in terms of progress through advancement in education- free education,in terms of provision of infrastructure-first television station in black Africa,a stadium,the tallest building in Nigeria at that time-Cocoa house etc found home in lbadan,the headquarter of the region.

In Midwest region where rubber plant was the major cash crop,tapping rubber for latex in the form of lumps was the major occupation of the people until crude oil was discovered in Oloibiri ,modern day Bayelsa state in 1958 which changed the landscape of our country from a producing to a consuming one .

And Benin-city,the capital of Midwest,was the center of activities and it was complimented by Warri that was also brimming with fishery and other marine activities as well as logging/woodworks due to its coastal location and rain forest ecology.

As can be seen from the narrative above,before the discovery of oil/gas,all Nigerians in the four (4) regions had their hands on the plough,working tirelessly to boost the productivity and income of the country.

I guess that is why the period is referred to as the golden age,because we were a producing country before we became a consuming country when oil/gas was discovered. And it is an unfortunate situation which Labor Party, Presidential Candidate,Peter Obi has smartly converted to his campaign mantra which is that he will:Turn Nigeria From A Consuming To Producing Country.

In a manner that is sort of perverse and gutting,the availability of oil/gas in our country has become ‘oil curse’ instead of a booster to our original production output through farming and processing of cash crops earlier highlighted.That is what the United Arab Emirates,UAE has done with oil/gas in Abu Dhabi,while Dubai remains a trading and tourism haven,just as Ras Al Khaimah and the rest of the emirates that make up the seven (7) emirates nation, Ajman, Fujairah, Sharjah and Umm Al Quwain concentrate efforts on harnessing resources endemic in their locations and of which they have comparative advantage in producing.

Why did l decide to dredge up the past,readers may be wondering?

Well,the aim is to put in perspective the fact that,not until the parliamentary system bequeathed to us by the British colonialist when their rule over us was ending in 1960, was jettisoned and replaced with presidential system in 1979 by the military,all was well with Nigeria.And our country has the potential of becoming like the UAE,because it is endowed with all the ingredients that it has taken to make that Middle East country that is regarded as a wonder of the world,become like Paris and New York combined.

Back in the days,the regional capitals of Nigeria-Kaduna,lbadan,Enugu and Benincity were the centers of political and economic powers dispersed across the country as all the regions had autonomy and the local political leaders were making their own laws reflective of the peculiar dynamics of their people’s culture ,such as ethnic and religious orientations and inclinations.

Since ,only defense,foreign and internal affairs were mainly left in the purvey of the federal government with a prime minister incharge, government at the center was centrifugal and it was centripetal in the regions,as such prime ministerial or governor-generalship post was not that attractive to warrant the type of do or die attitude now invested in becoming president and Vice President of Nigeria currently sucking up all the oxygen in the political space and threatening to asphyxiate our beloved country.

And it is not a mere happenstance that the most prominent political leaders at that time,Sir Ahmadu Bello of northern region and Chief Obafemi Awolowo of western region chose to become premiers of their respective regions instead of moving to the centre to become prime minister of Nigeria.

As evidence of the ordinariness of the central government,Alhaji Abubakar Tafawa Balewa,from Bauchi state who was the second in prominence in the political hierarchy in the north was assigned by sir Ahmadu Bello to serve as prime minister.So invariably the best hands were reserved in the regions and the second best were dispatched to the center which was at that time,lagos- the seat of the federal government.

The exception to that rule was,Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe who was the most prominent leader from the east and instead of becoming the premier in the manner that Ahmadu Bello and Obafemi Awolowo had become premiers of their respective regions,conceded the premiership of eastern region to sir Micheal Okpara and opted to become the Governor General of Nigeria,a ceremonial role which he desired as a centrist.

What informed the decision of the military and their acolytes in the intellectual world as well as the establishment to switch from the parliamentary system that the British handed over to us and which was modeled after what they practice,has remained intriguing to me,and l guess to those keen on understanding the political evolution of Nigeria.

Having amalgamated the northern and southern protectorates in 1914,the British officials that had garnered huge administrative experience over a period in excess 50 years of superintending over Nigeria,knew that to a large extent that,the system that worked for their home country,UK was ideal for us.

The underlying reason for such belief would be that the United Kingdom that is made up of four major ethnic groups- English,Welsh,Scottish and Irish to form United Kingdom,UK was in more ways than one,similar to Nigeria comprising of multiple ethnic nationalities with three main tribes -Hausa/Fulani,Yoruba and lgbo as the three main ethnic groups.

As such the colonialist probably reckoned that the system that had worked for them for centuries was the best for us.And given the similarities in ethnic composition of the nationalities that have been united to form one country,Nigeria,they appeared to have been right in their assessment and decision to imbue us with their tested and proven system.So for the first six (6) years,1960-66,Nigeria experienced its ‘golden age’ until the military truncated the process via the 1966 coup detat,a counter coup six (6) months after and the descent into civil disturbances that culminated into a civil war in 1967 that lasted till 1970.

Even under autocratic administrations,when those that ruled by gun,instead of rule of law,were in charge,religious and ethnic balance was observed because it was critical for the sustenance of the survival of our country as one entity.

That is why general Ibrahim Babangida,a Muslim from Niger State had Admiral Augustus Aikhomu,a Christian from Edo state as his chief of staff Supreme Headquaters which is the equivalent of Vice President in a military regime.

And the tradition or trend continued when multi party democracy got reintroduced in Nigeria in 1979 after a long military interregnum that commenced in 1967.

Religious sensitivity did not wane,even after then leaders of Nigeria,perhaps in a brain wave or in a flight of fancy decided to jettison the parliamentary system bequeathed by the British colonialist and opted to experiment with American style presidential system of government,hence Shehu Shagari,a Hausa/Fulani from Sokoto state paired with Alex Ekwueme,a Christian from Anambra state to form the federal government in 1979 and in 1999, Olusegun Obasanjo, a Christian from Ogun state was joined by Atiku Abubakar from Adamawa state, a Muslim as

President and Vice President respectively .

If indeed,the switch from

parliamentary to presidential system is an experiment as l had presumed,having learnt or experienced first hand, it’s ugly consequences-high cost of operation and over centralization and concentration of power in an individual as president currently throwing up ethnic and religious issues-what are we waiting for to return to the good old days of parliamentary system when there was regional autonomy or form our own hybrid system which could be a mixture of both presidential and parliamentary systems based on our reality?

At least two countries in Africa,Ghana and Rwanda operate hybrid constitutions.

That is evidenced by the fact that the national constitutions of both countries are neither parliamentary or presidential.

Is Nigeria facing its own moment of truth ?

Should we not seriously address the elephant in the room which are the sticky points in the 1999 constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria?

In due course,I will return to the question of wether or not,as a country,we did not steer our ship of state into the wrong course by switching from parliamentary to presidential system of government in 1979.But having put things in context and perspective by reflecting on the past experience in our dear country,allow me dissect the curved ball which APC Presidential candidate,Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s choice of Kashim Shetima seem to have thrown to himself such that it may make or mar his chance of becoming the next occupant of Aso Rock Villa and even threatening the survival of our country as a nation.

The commonest argument in favor of a Muslim-Muslim ticket is that there is no Vice Presidential material amongst northern Christians.The counter argument to that is that the incumbent Vice President,professor Yemi Osinbajo was a political feather weight before he stepped into the role in 2015. Why was that not an issue ? Clearly, the reason that Tinubu did not pick a southern Christian as running mate is much more deeper than not finding a heavy weight Christian as being speculated in some quarters.

After all,there are a couple of serving Christian governors, ex governors and two former secretaries to federal government,one ex and the other serving,to choose from.

So,my take is that the northern Muslims do not consider northern Christians as part of the north,just as they also do not consider southern Muslims as prosper Muslims.

Therein lies the dilemma.

This is also why state of origin and birth have remained an issue as Nigerians are not free to adopt a state where they have lived,worked and even born as their state,so that they can vote and be voted for,as it obtains in the USA where former president Bill Clinton served as governor in the state of Arkansas and his wife Hillary later served as the senator representing the state of New York.The same applies to the Bush family that originally hail from Texas,but Jeb Bush,one of the sons of president George Bush of blessed memory,served as the governor of the state of Florida.

What the scenario playing out in our country where people of same country,but of different creeds are not accorded equal opportunities indicates,is that there may be segregation,and even apartheid in Nigeria. Yes, apartheid in Nigeria!

Hence after over one hundred (100) years of amalgamation (1914) of the northern and southern protectorates by the British colonialists,northern and southern Nigeria have failed to blend.

Back in the days,the motto/mantra of NATIONAL PARTY OF NIGERIA,NPN ,then ruling party (1979-1983) was:One Nation,One Destiny.

With the polarization of our country between extreme lines of religious divide in the run up to 2015 general elections and a situation that has persisted thereafter,can a Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket in 2023 which is a clear exclusion of members of the other faith in the multi ethnic and religious country,be said to be reflective of the slogan: one nation,one destiny?

While Islamic clerk sheik Ahmed Gumi belief about the APC and its presidential candidates resort to Muslim-Muslim ticket is that , “It has nothing to do with religion. Its pure vote-getting strategy and nothing more. It now depends on the voter to choose from a wide range of choices.”

Babachir Lawal, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, SGF has a counterpoise to the point of view of the renown Islamic cleric.

“The northern governors and some northern Muslim elite must have persuaded him that they will never vote for a ticket that has a northern Christian on it.And he has agreed with them.But if he thinks a Muslim-Muslim ticket will win him the northern Muslim votes,he should have a rethink.They will massively vote for one of their sons because it is in their nature to do so”

And Ohanaze -apex lgbo socio-cultural organization through a press statement by its vice president-general , chief Damien Afam Okeke-Ogene has also warned that a Muslim Muslim ticket in 2023 election is a serious threat to the unity and corporate existence of Nigeria.He put it this way:

“APC presidential candidate choice of muslim — muslim ticket is not only ill-timed but also a total disregard to the diversity of the country and noted that this has undermined efforts of well meaning Nigerians over the years to bridge religious differences and promote ethnic harmonious co-existence.”

While acknowledging the cataclysm triggered by his choice of a fellow Muslim as running mate,the APC presidential candidate,Bola Tinubu,in a press statement justified his decision thus:

“Both sides of the debate have impressive reasons and passionate arguments supporting their position.Both arguments are right in their own way.But neither is right in the way that Nigeria needs at the moment.As president,I hope to govern this nation toward uncommon progress.”

But Christian APC members in the north do not agree with their presidential candidate,Tinubu.

And they did not mince words when they stormed Aso Rock Villa seat of presidential power in their numbers to register their dissent to Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket to president Mohamadu Buhari.They bared they mind thus:

“Mr. President, since the return of democracy in 1999 in Nigeria,the tradition has been a Muslim-Christian or Christian-Muslim paring by all political parties.And this has to a large extent,ensured religious harmony in the country.

“However, the move by our party to adopt a Muslim-Muslim ticket is most insensitive and the height of discrimination against Christians in our country. This is on the heels that other political parties indeed reflected the religious balance in the composition of their presidential team.”

Clearly, Nigerians from all sides of the political divides-ethnic and religious are speaking out against what appears like APC Abracadabra.

And from the excerpt from his media statement earlier highlighted ,Tinubu knows that he is in a dilemma with respect to his choice of a Muslim running mate ,but he hopes to prevail via dexterous political maneuvering.

But would he triumph this time ?

It is noteworthy that at other times,the interest of Nigerians on the choice of presidential candidates and their running mates would be influenced only by political parties affiliations.

Today, it is the faith of both candidates for the office of the president and Vice President of Nigeria that is a priority and being Muslim-Muslim is creating a ruckus simply because it is considered toxic by both Muslims and Christians alike who cherish harmonious co-existence that can only be achieved via equitable distribution of political power in a multi religion and multi ethnic country like ours.

Our forebears recognized the need,and entrenched the values through Federal Character principle enshrined in the 1999 constitution.

But Tinubu’s gambit of a Muslim- Muslim ticket implies that he has elected to discountenance the precautions taken by authors of the 1999 constitution to avoid the crisis of exclusion that has gripped the country since the ascension of APC to power at the center in 2015 reflected by the continued denigration or neglect of the federal character principle that is meant to be the glue holding the nation together in a manner that all the members of the union would have a sense of belonging.

It is commonsensical or a no-brainer to figure out that the violation of the federal Character principle entrenched in the 1999 constitution via exclusion of some tribes from appointment into strategic public offices and the reported monopolization of strategic public office positions by members of mr president’s tribe and religion that have manifested in the proliferation of separatist or secessionist groups like the proscribed Independent Peoples of Biafra IPOB led by Nnamdi Kanu in the eastern flank of our country and Oduduwa Republic promoter, Sunday Igboho in the south west zone,as well as other fringe groups in the middle belt region currently threatening the continued existence of our beloved country as one nation.

The demon of disharmony in our country would certainly be fed fat and inter tribal and religious conflicts exacerbated, if politics is allowed to be mixed with religion in a manner that APC and its presidential candidate are about to do which is a dangerous brew and ill wind which would blow no one any good.

Interestingly,the presidential system of government that is being operated in Nigeria since 1979 is modeled after the United States of America,USA’s system.

Unlike the USA constitution which is a four (4) page document has been in operation since 1787 when it was first written and operationalized a year after, and of which 33 amendments have been proposed with 27 approved and incorporated into the constitution after going through rigorous process of vetting:our law makers are yet to effect major amendments in the 1999 constitution.That is despite the fact that most Nigerians have rejected the constitution which they regard as being made by military diktat as it is a product of the military which handed over 1979 and the 1999 constitutions,of which the latter is an improvement on the former and to some critics,even a sort of mere addendum.

The issues of rotation of power between north and south zones which is currently at a gentleman agreement level,and therefore subject to manipulation; the nebulous minimum educational qualifications to become president which is malleable,and the lack of clarity about the unviable nature and therefore a clear prohibition of a Muslim-Muslim or Christian-Christian tickets at the federal government level or in states where the dominant religion is not above 70% currently about to trigger a political fiasco; are issues bedeviling our country because they are not codified or incorporated into the constitution as amendments in the way that Americans do.

In my view,if our leaders really want to fix Nigeria,the next national assembly has its work cut out for it,as the initiatives outlined above are simple and critical panacea ,remedies or cures for the incongruities that we have discovered in the course of operating the 1999 constitution in these past twenty three (23 )years that it has been our country’s statutes book.

Nigeria can borrow a leaf or two from Canada and Switzerland where the French speaking and other ethnic minorities in those climes share equal rights in the constitution with the majority English speaking ones ,including rotation of presidency amongst unequal parties,particularly in Switzerland.

In conclusion,l recently came across a whatsapp message with the photo of a little Caucasian girl crying.

On top of the image was the question to the crying girl:are you Hindu,Christian or Muslim? She answered: I am hungry.

The message ends with the admonition: MAKE HUMANITY YOUR RELIGION.

Remove Hindu and Caucasian girl from the picture,and replace with a Nigerian girl to create a local context; then pose the similar question: are you Christian or Muslim? To a distressed average Nigerian girl in Sokoto,the heartland of Hausa/Fulani where Muslims are predominant; and do the same in Abeokuta in Yoruba land, populated mainly by people of Christian faith; then replicate it in Aba in Abia state peopled by the lgbos that are mainly Christians: l can bet that the answer from the anguished girl would be: l am hungry.

It would not be: l am Muslim or Christian.

Clearly, hunger which spares no one based on religion, and starvation are increasingly becoming the lot of most Nigerians right now as a result of the amplification of our religious differences by politicians for unmerited advantage leading to conflicts that have displaced farmers and dramatically disrupted lives and livelihoods.What the demagogues tend not to realize is that the so called advantages are temporary and often come back to haunt them in the manner that some are currently refugees as they are cut off from their homesteads due to insecurity.

Take for instance the injection of Boko Haram into politics along with it’s more virulent variant ISWAP, herdsmen militia in the north and known and unknown gun men in the south east and the calamities those avoidable brigands are wreaking on politicians.Is it not a shame that today ,some of them can not go home to their constituents for fear that they may be kidnapped or killed by the monsters that they literally bred.

So,why don’t our politicians try to be religion and tribe neutral and focus more on the proposed programs and projects that would lift majority of Nigerians out of poverty and put them on the path to prosperity?

I will demur from citing Nigerian Bureau Of Statistics,NBS data to validate my assertion that hunger is ravaging our fellow compatriots, as such we must pay more attention to how to pull the masses out of hunger.

That is due to the fact that l am convinced that we all know without being told that life in Nigeria has become brutish and hellish owing to the mismanagement of our multiple ethnic and religion relationships.

As the Central theme or advocacy of the earlier referenced whatsapp message prods us:

Make humanity your religion.

How we in Nigeria can imbibe that message: MAKE HUMANITY YOUR RELIGION should be a raison detre or a sort of desiderata in our country.

lt is a necessary first step towards liberating our country from the shackles of religion and ethnic idiosyncrasies currently hobbling our country’s quest for nationhood.

That should be the mission of our politicians,not how to divide the country along ethnic and religious lines which the Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket of the APC candidates Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Kashim lbrahim Shetima tend to portend.

I have made a case in the past that it is about time that our political leaders applied the strategy of expanding the pie or value to be negotiated by putting all the political offices that are to be shared on the table upfront.

Nigerians would be less agitated or distressed,if they know in advance what they would get in the political calculus while negotiating power sharing arrangements between the north and south,Muslims and Christians alike.

My advocacy for a change in the political power sharing formula is inspired by the reality that the presidency rotation principle adopted since the return of multi party democracy since 1999,has become obsolete,therefore unimplementable in equitable manner.

And the reasons are two folds.The first is that it is mainly due to the changing political landscape which has seen the south holding on to the presidency much longer than anticipated resulting in the loss of faith in the system by the north in particular.

Take for instance,the president Umaru Yar’adua/goodluck Jonathan presidency which ended abruptly in 2010 due to the sudden passage of Yar’adua compelling Jonathan to complete that term and commence his own tenure in 2011 which got terminated in 2015.

Secondly,also take a look at the current eight (8) years tenure of president Muhamadu Buhari which kicked-off in 2015 and will be expiring in may next year.

Then think about the likelihood of the north remaining in power beyond 2023, when the northerners vote massively for the PDP candidate,Atiku Abubakar,who is one of their own.

It is a reality that the APC initially acknowledged by ditching Rotimi Amaechi and Yemi Osinbajo who were initially the front runners for the presidency when the party was inclined to allow power to return to the south.But its attempt to field Ahmed Lawan,the current senate president as it’s presidential candidate to serve as a counter force to PDP’s Atiku Abubakar ascendancy into Aso Rock Villa next year was checkmated by APC governors from the north who aligned with Tinubu’s quest ,for the selfish reason that after Tinubu’s eight (8)years,power would return to the north and much faster than,if Ahmad Lawan were to become president for eight (8)years,and power returns to the south for another eight (8) years.This implies that the governors interested in the presidency would have to wait for sixteen (16) years with Lawan as president as opposed to eight (8) years,if Tinubu were to become president.

Thus Ahmed Lawan’s ambition to be president in 2023 became a casualty as Tinubu’s hurricane-like political force torpedoed it like a ferocious and subversive submarine craft,by wining the 6-8 June presidential primaries of the APC against the run of place.

After one month of assessment of its best options,following its victory on June 8 ,the Tinubu camp that was probably unprepared for their victory,hence the name of a vice presidential candidate was not already in the breast pocket of the candidate as he was entering the primaries contest on 6th June,was eventually able to hash out the name of Kashim lbrahim Shetima as his running mate.

But instead of dousing the flame that Tinubu’s victory at the party primary election which was like a lightening rod had ignited,appointing a running mate has raised the crisis to Code Red or something akin to pouring gasoline/petrol into a burning fire.

And no one can tell how far the conflagration would go in further widening the fault lines in our beloved country into a gulf ,and even result in a serious chasm amongst the good people of Nigeria that are blessed with multiple ethnic and religious orientations of which there is one parentage- Abraham- father of Isaac and Ismail the originators of Judaism , Christianity and Islam.

Why can Nigeria not have a sort of peaceful interrelationships arrangement in the Middle East known as:

The Abraham Accords Declaration, which states:

“We believe that the best way to address challenges is through cooperation and dialogue and that developing friendly relations among States advances the interests of lasting peace in the Middle East and around the world.”

According to Wikipedia,

“The Abraham Accords are a joint statement between the State of Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States, reached on August 13, 2020. Subsequently, the term was used to refer collectively to agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.”

Arising from that agreement,amongst other positive developments,Israeli high technology firms are currently operating in Jebel Ali ports in Dubai jointly developing softwares with the UAE and there is currently direct flight between Saudi Arabia and Israel.That simply amplifies the fact that with determination,the seemingly impossible can become possible.

For long,l have lived with the morbid fear that religion is like a keg of gunpowder which is laid underneath our country Nigeria that could one day inadvertently be ignited and result in a combustion of catastrophic consequences.

But,l had reckoned that the unfortunate catastrophe may happen in the form of a heinous crime of beheading of a member or members of the opposite religions by fanatics resulting in reprisal actions between Muslims and Christians.

Thankfully,our law enforcement agencies -DSS ,police,army etal have been able to do a great job of mitigating that risk.And l always heaved a sigh of relief each time such dastardly criminal acts occurred and things did not get unhinged with aggrieved people taking the laws into their hands.

But the introduction of a Muslim-Muslim ticket for the presidency of Nigeria in 2023 was unimaginable to me.

More so because it was contemplated in 2015 and quickly dropped because it was felt that it was just too hot to handle.

So,l never contemplated,how much more engage in any scenario building around it.

Suddenly,it is in our face.

And hell appears to have been let loose via the raging verbal fire works.

I pray it stays that way until reason eventually prevails when elders in the room truly earn the title by stepping up to the plate.

Before then,good lord, take control.

Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.

To continue with this conversation, pls visit www.magnum.com.

July 19, 2022
Thankfully, 2023 Presidential Hopefuls Are Economically Literate – By Magnus Onyibe

Projecting into the mindset of a potential president of Nigeria that would be the new occupant of Aso Rock Villa in 2023 is what l have set out to do by writing this essay.

And l would like to state upfront that I am not by any means engaging in clairvoyance.

That is why all l want to do is leverage trend analysis as a tool, and look back into the past and also project into the future to figure out who out of the motley crowd of presidential candidates would end up calling the shots in Aso Rock Villa in 2023 is savvy in economic and financial matters.

Although , there are at least fifteen (15) presidential candidates that have met independent National Electoral Commission, INEC eligibility conditions and deadline , l have narrowed the number down to mainly two, and to a much lesser degree , a third in the unlikely event that the much hyped youth revolution occurs and only one political party benefits from it.

As the saying goes,by their fruits we shall know them.

So ,for the purpose of this discourse, fruits can be substituted for antecedents.

And relying on their antecedents,l can wager a bet that the three presidential candidates,of which one of them would willy nilly be propelled into Aso Rock Villa seat of presidential power next year, are in the persons of Asiwaju,Bola Tinubu,the flag bearer of the ruling party at the center, APC and Turaki Atiku Abubakar,the standard bearer for the main opposition party, PDP, and mr Peter Obi, LP candidate, in the unlikely event that a miracle happens.

At the risk of appearing to be presumptuous, nothing much has changed in Nigerian political space except the current wave of youth activism in the political space triggered by the reformed electoral Act 2022 which has conferred fidelity on our electoral system currently igniting unprecedented political consciousness in our youths.

It is amazing and heartening at the same time that 60% of potential voters in Nigeria which the youth demography represents, and who had hitherto been neglected or dormant ,are now the highly charged and motivated members of society anxious to exercise their civic duty of voting with the sole aim of seizing power from those they have branded as old generation politicians that must be shoved aside in 2023,and replaced with their purportedly newly found idol-Peter Obi and his running mate ,Datti Baba-Ahmed,when president Mohammadu Buhari and Yemi Osinbajo exit Aso Rock Villa next year.

As l have asserted in previous interventions,such a radical prospect of ousting the old politicians with alacrity by our youths,bothers on,at best,idealism, and perhaps youthful exuberance,if one were to be less charitable.

And for the reasons above, my sincere admonishment to our youths,as l had done in my previous media interventions is for them to decode the coded message in the conventional wisdom and idiomatic expression: ‘if wishes were horses ,beggars would ride’ and ‘old horses never die, they just find new horses to win’

To be clear,my point is simply that the 360 degrees change that the youths are seeking would not materialize as fast they would expect. But it would happen if they remain tenacious.

So, although the youth generation would make significant impact in 2023 elections ,as l had enunciated in my media intervention widely published on 21 June, 2022 titled:Converting Youth Bulge To Positive Force For Politics in Nigeria,my prognosis then is that either Turaki Atiku Abubakar or Asiwaju Bola Tinubu would prevail in the upcoming presidential contest. And that position has undergone further adjustment.

In any case, one of the three them would be the one to receive the hand over notes from president Buhari on 29th May 2023.

And l can fortell what the policies and programs of the duo, perhaps a trio, would look like when one of them takes over the reins of governance.

Basically,most of what is known about them and which l will rely on in my analysis are derived from their period of stewardship or time in public office .

With respect to Tinubu,he has served for two terms as governor of lagos state from 1999 to 2007 and left footprints with respect to spreading his political tentacles nationally, and his significant efforts at providing infrastructure that has steered lagos state towards becoming a mega city, remain unsurpassed.

Regarding Abubakar that was Vice President to former president Olusegun Obasanjo, who also served from 1999 to 2007, he has giant imprints in both the terrains of politics and economy nationwide.

Leveraging the network of People Democratic Movement,PDM,inherited from his mentor,late Shehu Musa Yar’adua, he is easily one of the most widely known political actors in Nigeria , having contested for the presidency of Nigeria a whooping five (5) times with significant impart. For that reason, the PDP candidate is believed to already have in his kitty about 13 million voters which he earned during his last contest for the office of president in 1999 with incumbent president,Mohammadu Buhari who received a couple of millions more votes than him.

I will not dwell on Peter Obi because everything about his service in public office,including documents that are supposed to be classified,plus the ones concocted by the denizens swirling around in his orbit or netizens that have colonized the cyberspace on behalf of Obi are already over exposed in the public domain.

So,without further ado,it is pertinent that we get down to the brass tacks by shining the light on the private sector background of the likely candidates that would become president of Nigeria next year.

In any case,with the economy and security likely to occupy the left and center of the political debate when Independent National Election Commission,INEC, officially opens the space for campaigning on 28th September,Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar who are thankfully not economic illiterates would be going head-to-head.

Remarkably ,the terrific and encouraging thing about the candidates is that both of the APC and PDP candidates, plus the LP candidate Peter Obi can read the balance sheet because they are all business savvy, having been private sector practitioners.

While Tinubu is an accountant, with interest in tax collection,Atiku is an astute entrepreneur with investments in oil/gas as well as education while Obi is a commodity trader.For lack of space and time , will not going into granular details about their businesses.

Now,Tinubu’s supporters would aver that it is his blue print for the development of Lagos state that has remained the play book that have subsequently been relied upon by three governors-Babatunde Fashola, Akinkunmi Ambode and Jide Sanwo-Olu-for the advancement of the state.

By the same token,the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar shares in the credit for the giant developmental strides taken in our country under the watch of former president Obasanjo for eight (8) years . It was during that period that Nigeria’s debilitating debt burden of about $30 billion(which has reportedly sadly tanked to an estimated $90 billion under the present regime) was substantially written off ($12 billion) by the Paris Club of creditors. It was also a time that Nigeria witnessed economic reforms including privatization of public utilities such as the telecommunications sector that ushered in the current mobile telephone revolution.

And there are credible reasons to believe that if president Obasanjo had succeeded in serving a third term (as pundits aver that he was desirous of doing) the petroleum sector would also have been privatized.

That means that Nigerians would not have been going through the agony of paying for the commodity literally through their nose, and basically going through hell and back to even find the commodity to purchase.

So inevitably ,the candidates that would likely emerge as president are pro-private sector and therefore likely to be able to pull Nigerian economy out of the abyss where it is currently mired due particularly to the monumental and unprecedented levels of insecurity in the country and poor economic policies,especially petroleum subsidy which is expected to gulp about four (4) trillion naira in budget 2022 , broken down as approximately N600 billion naira monthly expenditure,and still counting.

Before dwelling further on the likely economic policies of the potential Aso Rock Villa occupant after president Buhari exits next year, it is appropriate that we underline the qualities that Nigerians expect in their next president.

During the launch of my new book: Becoming President Of Nigeria.A Citizen’s Guide, the keynote speaker, professor Mike Ikhariale, a Harvard University trained constitutional lawyer, outlined some qualities that an ideal president of Nigeria is supposed to posses in addition to the requirements in the 1999 constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria.

The expert in constitutionalism laid it bare by leveraging the work of an authority in constitutionalism, James Barber.

Here is how he put it:

“According to James Barber in his studies generally referred to as “Barber’s Research”, he laid out about 10 essential qualities which a President must possess in order to be successful. They include:

a. A strong vision for the country’s future supported by a plan of action.

b. He must have the ability to put his own reign in historical perspective.

c. A president must be a communicator who knows the importance of the so-called ‘Bullying Pulpit’.

d. He must be prepared to make unpopular decisions, someone who is able to move beyond the orthodoxy and purposefully innovative.

e. Must have crisis management skills, not passing the puck but accepting realities.

f. Must be a person of remarkable character and integrity.

g. Even though he has the constitutional power to hire and fire, he must make his key appointments wisely in such a way that he can use his employment prerogative to bolster his own political reach. This in modern times would mean gender balance and in the particular case of Nigeria, the requirements of Federal Character principle. He must avoid cronyism and nepotism.

h. Must have the ability to relate with the Legislators,

i. Needless to say, that charisma and a welcoming aura are great assets for a President.”

Having arrayed the qualities of an ideal president, the question now is: does the antecedents of the two candidates of the ruling party APC – Bola Tinubu and main opposition party, PDP -Atiku Abubakar and the distant third candidate, Peter Obi of LP , who are the front runners in the race to Aso Rock Villa, posses most or all of the qualities enunciated in ‘Barber’s Research’ earlier cited by professor Ikhariale?

If readers would indulge me, l would like to respond to the forgoing poser against the backdrop of the public office records of the candidates that l earlier highlighted.

As l pointed out ab initio, it is Tinubu of APC that successfully steered lagos state into becoming a functional mega city and of which a coterie of his protégé has continued to hold sway.

On the other hand , it is Abubakar of PDP that set the agenda for leap frogging the economic growth of Nigeria when during their first tenure in Aso Rock Villa ,then president Olusegun Obasanjo, entrusted him with the management of the economy during which the privatization of the telecommunications sector,(held up as a global model for privatization) led to the introduction of GSM telephony amongst other positive phenomenons that occurred in the Obasanjo/Abubakar era.

It is also worthy of note that both Tinubu and Abubakar have the knack for identifying talents, by spotting and reaching out to them, even if they are in the private sector. Hence the duo often achieved commendable levels of success in leadership in the roles in public office .

As for Peter Obi, he attracted a brewery to the Anambra state and took a stake in it as well as saved N75 billion naira which he left behind for his hand picked successor, Willie Obiano in banks, one of which is fidelity bank,where he is a major share holder, and Obiano was executive director before becoming governor of Anambra state in 2014.

While being cognizant of the blithe on the characters of both Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar based on recent scathing reports by Financial Times of London and Bloomberg news that alleged that they have been indicted for corruption in the USA; it is noteworthy that the frontline presidential candidates were never convicted of the crimes that they were alleged to have committed.

Nonetheless, there have been a lot of buzz locally about their character flaws which frankly, can not be discountenanced.

But at the same time, we must recognize that no man is perfect.

Personally, if l am faced with the option of choosing between an economic illiterate who would do nothing to grow the economy,but dissipate a lot of energy in chasing perceived corrupt people to no avail ; or save up the income of government in bank accounts instead of investing it in employment and tax generating ventures that would boost the GDP and living standard of Nigerians: l would choose the alternative which is an enterprising personality that would seek out all possible legitimate ways to improve the economy and also make our country a better place, socioculturally for harmonious co-existence of the multiple ethnic and religious groups.

The mindset expressed above is underscored by the parable of the three talents in the holy Bible? Those familiar with the parable would recall that it is about three servants who were entrusted with talents (funds) by their master prior to embarking on a trip. And the two who invested them wisely, were commended by their master upon, upon his return.

But the one who dug up the ground to hide his own talent, so that he would return same to his master was chided and the talent was taken off him and given to those who invested the funds left in their care.

In the light of the above, if a personality with the ability and capacity to robustly grow the beleaguered economy of our beloved country and has engaged in the risky venture of trying to stimulate growth via transactions,and have in the process been accused of graft in the past,both here in Nigeria and abroad without conviction,so be it; because regardless of their past , so long as they are not ex-convicts who the Nigerian constitution excludes from running for public office,l would chose the latter than the former.

As we all may be aware,by and large,risk is an integral part of business or transactions and graft is always in the mix. Accordingly, the most efficacious panacea to graft is to set up robust institutions to prevent it.

Certainly not of the hue of EFCC and ICPC, thank you very much.

Incorporating measures to eliminate corruption is akin to organizations , (particularly banking institutions) building firewalls around their data bases to fend off cyber criminals that are constantly seeking ways to breach the security of corporations in order to gain access and steal vital data of targeted organizations.

So it behoves of the legislature and judiciary to enact and enforce laws that would prevent corruption. That is what is obtainable in advanced democracies.

And l make bold to state that the position that l have espoused above would not be far from the mindset of private sector practitioners most of whom are already echoing such sentiment because it is in tandem with their belief that the economy should be unshackled especially by ending petrol subsidy.

We need not be rocket scientists to figure out that the reason for such a defiant attitude is that the better part of seven years of this administration invested in anti corruption misadventure has pulled, not only the economy of our country into a black hole, but the fabric of unity of our country has also been shredded to the extent that it would take a very long time to mend.

And that is not a good thing ,no matter how spin doctors working for government try to white wash the dire atmosphere in our country which is basically comparable to the experience of a patient in an Intensive Care Unit, ICU of a hospital where life is so precarious as it is held only by a tiny thread separating life and death.

So,despite the false claim that our country is better off than what it was seven years ago,majority of Nigerians recognize such revisionism as sheer farce and deceit of the electorate , as such they are resolved to effect change, if the current activism by our youths engaged in Permanent Voters Card, PVC registration and collection, is anything to go by.

Although,somehow unorthodox,my non nihilistic or liberal assessment of both Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar as well as Peter Obi ,is guided by the truism and conventional wisdom , ‘ there is no paean without pain’.

That broadly implies that sacrifices must be made in order to achieve success.

Buoyed by that reality,l am convinced that Nigerians are willing to vote for the candidate who would move the nation forward into the orbit of progress and prosperity,than those that would lead them into a blind alley and quagmire where the ship of state is currently anchored and waiting to ,at the slightest stress test, tip over or remain moored in a cul de sac towards which it is the currently tethering.

In that regard, for sure ,Tinubu, Abubakar and Obi will receive caustic criticisms when emotions start running high when the campaigns begin from 28 September which is basically a couple of months from today.

One thing we must recognize is that things are never as bad as they first seem or as good as they first seem.

So, after the anticipated hurly burly, one of them would end up in Aso Rock Villa on 29 May 2023 and that person will be adept in reading and understanding profit and loss account.

And l would like to urge skeptics who hold contrary view to the assertion above,to recall the gale of criticisms that was lobbed at then candidate,Mohammadu Buhari when he was a presidential candidate in 2015. Yet,he won the presidency, simply because there was a pervasive sanctimonious attitude of anyone but Goodluck Jonathan prevailing in Nigeria at that point in time.

It is trite to state that a similar sentiment is currently prevailing in Nigeria’s political space, as Nigerians are craving a rebirth or reset in 2023.

Apart from the candidates of APC and PDP that are besmeared, Peter Obi, candidate of Labor Party, LP, who is a two term governor of Anambra state also has corruption toga tied to his persona .That is if the huge cash running into hundreds of millions of naira (about N250m )allegedly found in a vehicle in the governors mansion Awka during his tenure. That is in addiction to the alleged malfeasance arising from his patronage of an offshore tax heaven that reportedly helped him hide some of his wealth that he failed to disclose, to avoid tax is anything to go by.

Similarly ,the presidential candidate of the newly minted party, New Nigerian Peoples Party, NNPP Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso,who is a two term governor of Kano state, ex defense minister and senator of the federal republic of Nigeria has also at one time or the other been tarred with the black brush of malfeasance which was brought to the fore in the course of his duel with his predecessors and successors as governor of Kano state, lbrahim Shekarau and Abdulahi Ganduje.

My point is that unlike in 2015,anti corruption will not be the center piece of any candidate’s campaign,since it has been demystified as a campaign rhetoric that would resonate with voters. In any case must of the candidates have shed the negative toga of corruption by discharging themselves of the allegations in courts of law.

In short ,right now ,there is fatigue on the fight against corruption because those who are supposed to be fighting it in the current dispensation have become more corrupt than those they are supposed to prevent from dipping their hands into our common treasury.

That is reflected by the allegations against lbrahim Magu ,the anti graft tzar who was recently sacked as the EFCC chairman and the immediate past Accountant General of The Federation, AGF, Ahmed Idris who got dismissed on account of bilking Nigeria of N80 billion naira diverted illegally from the treasury that he is supposed to be the custodian.

Also in the mix is Abdulrasheed Mainav,the jailed chairman of Pension Reform Task Team , PRTT with responsibility for the reforming the corruption ridden pension funds system and he ended up re-looting the multi billion naira funds that he was assigned to recover.

Be it Omoyele Sowore, the presidential candidate of Africa Action Congress, AAC, Dumebi Kachikwu , candidate for the presidency on the platform of Africa Democratic Congress, ADC or Young Progressive Party, YPP presidential candidate, Malik Ado-lbrahim , all of whom are running on the platforms of fringe political parties, not one presidential candidates is a saint by any stretch of imagination as they all also have scandals, not particularly financial corruption hugging them.And all of them would be literally stripped naked simply because muck raking goes with the territory of politics.

As salvaging the economy and reining in insecurity are obviously the most pressing needs of Nigerians in these present times , projecting into the development mindset of the next occupant of Aso Rock Villa seat of power as president in 2023, l am pretty convinced that if there were to be a three point agenda as a fulcrum or policy plank of the incoming government;one of them would be pulling our country out of economic doldrums which has seen government borrowing money to pay salaries and utilizing about 98% of it’s income for debt servicing,and which by some accounts is in excess of ninety (90) billion dollars borrowed from local and international lenders.

That is because priority would most likely be channeled towards ensuring that the critical masse of Nigerians are liberated from hunger and starvation currently ravaging them.

Also , restoring security of lives and properties by government thus freeing the masses from the rule of bandits such as religious insurgents, herdsmen militias and unknown gun men currently be-spoiling Nigeria from the north, all the way down to the eastern corners of Nigeria ,as precious lives being decimated with reckless abandon on a daily basis,would be the second in the agenda.

The third in the agenda would be to drastically cut down corruption which has become so entrenched in our political space and business environment that it is looking like it is embedded in our DNA and therefore part of our culture. Of course that is a false narrative that must be erased from the psyche of Nigerians.

Now, PDP presidential candidate,Atiku Abubakar had picked his running mate shortly after the primaries.

Although his choice of delta state governor, lfeanyi Okowa has been tempestuous, largely because the preferred candidate of PDP leadership and follower-ship appears to be governor of Rivers state,Nyesom Wike who although is the presidential aspirant that garnered the next highest vote after the winner; and a veritable pillar of support for the PDP in the past seven years; but he got passed over or neglected for appointment as Abubakar’s running mate. That has precipitated the rumble that has culminated into the ongoing resistance by southern governors and key stakeholders in the main opposition party which still persists.

And that could be a dampener or glitch in the otherwise fast moving train that had gathered the momentum for PDP to return to Aso Rock Villa after its unceremonious exit in 2015.

PDP’s case is not as bad as that of the ruling party, APC where it’s candidate has taken more or less one month (8th June to 10th July) to pick a running mate.

Tinubu took long in choosing his running mate, Kashim Shetima, former Borno State governor and a fellow Muslim owing to the dilemma of being a southern Muslim who must nominate a running mate from the north, where incidentally, Muslims are in the majority.

With a Muslim-Muslim ticket ,Tinubu and the ruling party have a monumental and Herculean task of convincing southern and northern Christians to vote for him as president in 2023. That standpoint is simply derived from the fact that Christians have been feeling marginalized under president Buhari’s watch,which although had a Christian Vice President in the person of Yemi Osinbajo, yet suffered exclusion from governance. How much more worse would it get ,if no Christian would be at the table inside Aso Rock Villa seat of presidential power from 2023 , they may wonder.

Of all the major political parties,only the LP and it’s presidential candidate seem to have gotten the ethnic and religious balancing equation right.

That is simply because Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the party, a Christian from Anambra state has picked Datti Baba-Ahmed a Muslim from Kaduna state. It is such a perfect combination in the ethno-religious calculus reminiscent of the Shehu Shagari and Alex Ekwueme combination in 1979 that it looking like a de-ja-vu.

The labor party achieved that feat after exercising the option of place-holder like the APC.

Much as the pairing of President and vice Presidential candidates of labor party is an ideal combination,it is not really a critical factor, but it matters.

That is why a Muslim-Muslim ticket that Bola Tinubu has settled for is rubbing off roughly on members of the other faiths.

Applying the analogy of a game of gulf, the APC Presidential candidate, Tinubu’s dilemma can be likened to a player who has hit the ball and it has fallen into a stream in the golf course which is a major bogey ; while Abubakar’s situation is like that of a player whose ball was struck with the club but it has landed in a bunker and a bogey ; just as LP’s candidate, Obi looks like a player that has made a powerful hit of the ball and it landed out of the range of the hole, so that it is highly unlikely to be successfully potted into the hole in the number of times required by the rules of the game.

In conclusion, my take is that the PDP candidate, Atiku Abubakar has a better chance of potting the ball out of the bunker into the hole, if he is able to calm the brewing Wike storm swiftly and dexterously. It is still better than APC candidate Bola Tinubu,who is highly handicapped as his ball has landed in a stream and it is likely out of his sight.

That simply means that his presidential quest may be in jeopardy of being dead on arrival after choosing his running mate, since a Muslim-Muslim ticket which worked in 1993 when Moshood Abiola,a Muslim philanthropist from the south west,like him,paired up with Babagana Kingibe,also a Muslim from Borno state to win the presidential contest in 1993 that is acclaimed to be the fairest and freest in the annals of Nigeria’s electioneering process.

Today, in light of the polarization of the country along ethnic and religious divides in the past decade or so, such a prospect now looks like an anathema in Nigeria where a stanza in the old national anthem “ … though tribe and tongue may differ, in brotherhood we stand … appear to be so quaint and such an anathema due to the elevated level of politics of religiosity and ethnicity that have enveloped the political atmosphere obfuscated the brotherhood of yore.

For the reasons above , APC and it’s Presidential torch bearer, Bola Tinubu have a perfect storm in their hands and Atiku Abubakar and PDP baring any more goofs or gaffes may be on the verge of singing joyfully into Aso Rock Villa.

Magnus onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.

To continue with this conversation, pls visit www.magnum.ng

July 12, 2022
Nigerian Politicians And 2023 Primary Elections Hangovers – By Magnus onyibe

If the hangovers were the type that one feels after a revelry, or binge with friends after which one is reluctant to go back to work the next day ,it would not have mattered much .

That is because, excessive alcoholic intake can be taken care of by engaging in quick detoxification. And being not keen to return to work can be cured by a reality check of the fear of being fired from the job or suffering income loss , if one’s boss is fair enough to make absence from work a loss of pay for only the period of absence.

But the hangover being suffered by Nigerian politicians after the party primaries for the 2023 general elections that were held mostly during the end of the month of May and first week of June is much more than that.

That is especially so for the presidential candidates of the two main political parties- ruling APC and main opposition, PDP that are now grappling with the dilemmas which their emergence have triggered via the actions of both parties in choosing their presidential candidates against the run of play.

By now, it must be clear to most Nigerians that the two personalities – Bola Ahmed Tinubu, BAT in the case of APC and Atiku Abubakar, AA in the case of PDP are two powerful politicians whose political sagacity and ingenuity defied all logic to emerge as the candidates of their respective parties.

In light of the above , they are irksome to some members even in the parties in which they are presidential flag bearers, simply because their candidacy is fraught with technicalities that are disruptive to the traditional political settings , and therefore represent a major paradigm shift in the annals of Nigeria’s political office contestation at the presidential levels.

Traditionally, if a presidential candidate is from the north,usually Hausa/Fulani and a Muslim , the running mate is often someone from the south , lgbo,ljaw or Yoruba. That has been the case since 1979 with Alhaji Shehu Shagari , a Muslim and Hausa/Fulani from Sokoto state who paired with Dr Alex Ekwueme, a Christian and an lgbo from Anambra state as presidential and vice presidential candidates respectively.

Ditto for Olusegun Obasanjo, a Yoruba Christian from Owu in Ogun state and Atiku Abubakar , from Jada, Yola in Adamwa state , that were bestriding the Presidency and Vice Presidency , from 1999 to 2007. How can we forget Umaru Yar’adua , a Muslim Hausa /Fulani from katsina state and Goodluck Jonathan Christian from Otuoke in Bayelsa state presidency and Vice Presidency , 2007-2010 , as well as Jonathan and Namadi Sambo , a Muslim Fulani from Kaduna state presidency and Vice Presidency , 2011-2015.

Even under military rule , pre and post 1979 return to democracy with Shagari and Ekwueme at the helm of affairs as President and Vice President, the military dictators were sensitive enough to observe and respect the delicate ethnic and religious lines by balancing the ethnic and religious fault lines required to keep our country on even keel.

Having set the stage by putting things in context , it is proper that l dissect the hangovers that are being suffered by both BAT and AA , who are clearly the presidential front runners in 2023 and dwell a little bit on the threats posed by the fringe parties and the chances or otherwise of their candidates in having a shot at calling the shots in Aso Rock Villa next year.

Beginning with the APC , where the apparent political miscalculations during the June 6-7th APC presidential convention, presumably careened out of control, following the underestimation of APC national leader, Bola Tinubu ,to pull a chestnut out of fire by becoming the presidential candidate of APC , against all odds , and which is one of the causes of the debilitating hangover now being suffered by the party . It is as a consequence of that unforeseen development of which the APC was clearly unprepared, that it is now contending with the hangover of swimming against the tide of finding a running mate that would compliment its candidate rather than threatening the chances of the party and worse still , endangering the unity of our country.

That is basically because,a Muslim -Muslim ticket which appears to be the best option open to BAT, by all measures seems to be an anathema in light of the current high dissonance level between Muslims and Christians in Nigeria .

That point is driven home by the media statements being issued by various Christian groups and even a Muslim interest platform that have expressed aversion to such an arrangement at the presidential level,which is significant.

In a media report currently making the rounds , over the weekend, a group known as Nigeria Democracy Defense Watch ,(NDDW) led by the Ahmed Ibrahim Adamu and Otunba Adeniji Adegoke wrote a letter to president Buhari suggesting that ”a Muslim-Muslim ticket May portray Nigeria as an Islamic and sectarian nation”

It may be argued that the late Moshood Kashimawo Okikiola, MKO Abiola, a Yoruba Muslim like BAT, contested for the presidency under the SDP in 1993 by pairing with Ambassador Babagana Kingibe, another Muslim from Borno state and won. But the level of ethnic and religious animosity now prevailing in our country manifesting in extreme hostility was absent in 1993.

In fact , the oddity of a Muslim-Muslim presidency may be the critical,but unannounced reason that the June 12, 1993 election believed to the fairest of political party elections in Nigeria was annulled by then head of state general Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida,IBB.

As it may be recalled,lBB had indicated in the numerous media interviews that he has granted in nearly 30 years after the sad event of June 12 1993 election annulment, that it was done to assuage the anger of members of the military- perhaps his kitchen cabinet who were opposed to the development.Hopefully, IBB would reveal exactly the identity of the officers that were opposed to his allowing MKO Abiola’s victory to be upheld and their reason for being so resolute about it in his memoir, if he eventually writes it or authorizes one.

Before then, it needs being brought to the fore that in uncanny ways, the June 1993 annulment of the presidential elections won by MKO Abiola by IBB echoes or bears similarity to the January 6 ,2020 attempted annulment of Joe Biden’s victory as president of the United States of America, USA, by then president Donald Trump and which is currently being investigated by the congress of that country.The parallel lies in the fact that then incumbent president Trump tried unsuccessfully to get congress to upturn the election victory of Biden via pressure on Vice President Mike Pence and members of the parliament to deny Biden’s victory by using the occasion of the statutory endorsement and validation by parliament to invalidate the result. But for the existence of robust institutions of democracy in the USA ,Trump would have had his way in the manner that Babangida successfully annulled June 12, 1993 presidential elections of which MKO

Abiola, who was the adjudged winner, but was denied the crown.

As a country that believes in engaging in post mortem of events in order to avert future occurrence, the congress of the USA is investigating the June 6, 2020 invasion of The Capitol, by pro-Trump insurgents who besieged the Congress hall and unleashed mayhem on congress men and women while in the process of endorsing Biden’s victory. Right now, the inquisition is being carried out in the full glare of Americans via live television broadcast . Unsurprisingly, that was not the case with June 12, 1993 annulment in Nigeria and one of the reasons, Africa is referred to as a dark continent, and why,indeed Nigeria is still in the doldrums and even deemed as an basket case in the comity of civilized countries.

That being the case , how June 12 , 1993 happened has remained a mystery, and subject of conjecture as l have just done by speculating that non-acceptance of Muslim-Muslim presidency by some influential military high command members may be an unsung reason.

For the sake of emphasis, had we as a nation known what informed the decision by lBB and his kitchen cabinet to annul June 12th presidential election via a public enquiry whose report is made public , perhaps it would have been legislated against and maybe Bola Ahmed Tinubu would not be caught in a similar web today.

And our country’s leaders lack of interest in looking at the past experience with June 12th 1993 debacle to enable it chart a better future in our presidential elections may be attributable to the fact that the sad event occurred under a military dictatorship that is opaque, as opposed to a democracy where transparency is a sine qua non.

Worse still, even where a panel of inquiry were to be set up to examine the cause of such an aberration, the reports are likely to be swept under the carpet. Take Oputa Panel Report for instance. It is an investigative panel set up by president Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999 to investigate human rights abuse from 1984 to 1999 when Nigeria was ruled by the quartet of generals, Abdulsalami Abubakar, Sani Abacha, Ibrahim Babangida, and then general Muhammadu Buhari , military head of state ,1983-85 and 1985-1993 ,1993 -1998 and 1998-1999 respectively.

The panel of enquiry headed by late justice Chukwudifu Oputa,with bishop Hasan Kukah as secretary wrote a report that never saw the light of day,hence our country failed to under go a reset in the manner that Rwanda has witnessed a rebirth after its ethnic cleansing tragedy in 1994.

Apart from the challenge of both the president and his vice being of the same faith which appears untenable given the prevailing circumstances of religious disharmony in our country, that has been elevated to a frightening level in the past decade or so;and which is like an albatross hanging over the presidential candidate of the APC , Bola Ahmed Tinubu: the minimum educational qualifications that a Nigerian president should possess is another major cause of indigestion in Tinubu’s camp.

Both of these factors -Muslim -Muslim ticket palava and minimum educational qualifications imbroglio are the reasons the winner of the APC presidential primaries has been unable to consummate his victory nearly one month after he won it such that instead of appointing a running mate, he opted for a place-holder .

Evidently, his inability to appoint a substantive running mate rather than exercising the option of nominating a place-holder in the person of lbrahim Masari from katsina state, does not augur well for his presidential ambition because it is tricky. But owing to the prevailing circumstances, he needed to beat INEC deadline by buying time while trying to figure out the intricacies of ethnic and religious realities that define our politics, and the Place-Holder concept lends itself as temporary solution .

A Place-Holder which is an option that Tinubu exercised has thus entered into the lexicon of Nigerian political actors and it is now a popular line of action in the political space as other presidential candidates, (not the PDP) have copied the innovative concept pioneered by the inimitable Bola Tinubu who is best known for his sagacity having been the one who institutionalized deputy governors being political neophytes having leant a bitter lesson from his hard fight to fend off his first deputy, the politically savvy Kofoworaola Bucknor, that allegedly was bent on impeaching him. It was Tinubu who also changed for good the concept of Local Government Areas, LGAs to Local Council Development Authorities, LCDAs after winning a landmark legal battle against then president Olusegun Obasanjo. So, it is to his credit that the concept of creating additional local councils by states has now become standard. By contributing another feature like the Place-Holder concept that is currently a fad into the political milieu, Tinubu has by and large become another touch bearer.

It is against that backdrop that, BAT , who has issues with the academic certificates that he submitted or did not submit to the Independent National Electoral Commission , INEC has become another source and cause of tension and talking point engaging the attention of Nigerians from the mosques , churches, barbers shops, market squares to online social media platforms dominated by the youths, as they animately and passionately debate what the future portends.

The question now is , would Tinubu , who given the fact that he has successfully fought numerous political battles- university of Chicago certificate scandal as lagos state governor ,1999-2007 and alleged narcotics racketeering indictments in the USA during his sojourn in the Diaspora as recently reported by Bloomberg , survive the current bogeys- Muslim-Muslim ticket which is likely his last resort, at a great risk , and minimum educational qualifications quagmire of which he may be compelled to present his primary and secondary school certificates to avoid being disqualified ?

Given his antecedents of navigating political stormy waters , his fans believe that BAT like the proverbial cat that has nine lives would prevail as they are optimistic that the current ill wind would eventually blow away.

On the part of the main opposition, PDP and it’s presidential candidate, Turaki Atiku Abubakar , since his emergence as the flag bearer on 28th May , there has arisen more or less been an anarchic situation of a stunning proportion.

It started with the party going against its presidency rotation policy practiced since it was birthed in 1998/99 and embedded in its constitution. In the belief that an opposition party may not be compelled so much to hinge its future on a party dogma than leveraging a winning formula and candidate with the brightest chance to win , the rotation pendulum was not allowed to swing to the south as was expected. Instead, a more pragmatic approach of building on the momentum (about 13 million votes) already gathered by her presidential candidate in the last presidential contest in 2019,Atiku Abubakar was adopted. To some extent , unlike the unforeseen circumstances that threw up Asiwaju Tinubu as the presidential candidate of the APC, the emergence of Abubakar as PDP’s standard bearer can not be said to be unanticipated.

That is underscored by the fact that the party debated and agreed to throw its presidential candidacy open instead of rotating it exclusively to the south, as it should have, all things being equal.

Like the quagmire afflicting the APC which looks like catch 22, by not respecting the party’s presidential rotation agreement , the PDP has left a bad taste in the mouth, not only of PDP members from the south east and south zones which are the party’s strong hold, but also of the middle belters who have been vociferous along with Ohaneze-lgbo sociopolitical group , PANDEF -Niger Delta platform of the same hue with Ohanaze and Middle Belt Forum, MBF, a north central states political forum who are thumping their noses at the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar.

Further muddying the water is the fact that , Nyesom Wike,the current governor of Rivers state ,who is from the south-south zone , also contested for the presidential ticket ,and ended up as the first runner up to the winner of the contest.But he has subsequently been passed over as running mate to Atiku Abubakar. Denying Nyesom Wike a consolatory price as Vice Presidential candidate in light of the fact that he has been the major pillar of support for the PDP since it lost the presidency in 2015 , has gaslighted the party which at this point in time should have been taking advantage of the cul de sac that the difficulty in choosing a Vice Presidential candidate poses to Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s presidential ambition. But instead, PDP presidential candidate, Abubakar is struggling to glue together the party which currently seems to be on tenterhooks because of the unbalanced equation of distribution of party posts whereby both the PDP presidential candidate and party chairman are from the same north, leaving the south in the lurch.

It is rather unfortunate that a combination of the present actions and inactions of PDP leadership as well as the burden of the former president Olusegun Obasanjo, OBJ who was Atiku Abubakar’s boss , relentlessly tagging his former second-in-command as corrupt without proof,and Bloomberg’s equally excoriating report on allegations of financial malfeasance in the USA against Turaki Abubakar,of which there is also no evidence of conviction of the crime against the PDP presidential candidate, constitute significant obstacles and impediments to PDP’s return as the ruling party at the center in 2023.

Again, there is solace in the fact that Atiku Abubakar who is a veteran of several presidential contests at both the party primaries levels and as the candidate of his party in presidential elections in 2019 , is an established and proven goal getter with an indomitable spirit and capacity to win. It is unsurprising that in a recent press statement, he has vowed to mend the broken fences within the party , just as the BOT chairman of the party, senator Walid Jibrin has recommended a high powered diplomacy shuttle involving both the presidential candidate and his running mate to Nyesom Wike who has been been let down by the party that he invested a lot in building in the past seven (7) years. Reportedly, both the APC and Labor party are seeking his hands in political marriage.

Hopefully, the need to forge a common front before 2023 by applying a healing balm on the wounds of those whose ox were gored during the vicious battle fought in the course of the party primaries would not be treated with levity by Atiku Abubakar in the manner that Goodluck Jonathan allowed the PDP to collapse in 2015, by engaging in foolish pride of not seeking rapprochement with aggrieved critical stakeholders before they started jumping ship.

All things being equal, would Turaki Atiku Abubakar be luckier than he was in 2019 and prevail in the impending 2023 presidential contest ?

Given the prevailing political dynamics in our country whereby citizens are disdainful of the horrendous level of insecurity of lives and properties, as well as the unprecedented level of hunger and starvation stalking the land , which can best be characterized as extreme state of anomie , the presidency of Nigeria is for the PDP and Atiku Abubakar to lose, if they do or do not get their acts right early enough.

And the hand writing is already on the wall if the massive defections from

APC to PDP in Sokoto and Katsina states as well as across the country is anything to go by. Despite the positive optics, reconciliation efforts to calm. Frayed nerves need to be afoot right now.

Aside from the dissonances in the two major parties-the APC and PDP towards their quest for clinching the 2023 due to ethnic and religion configuration challenges -accentuated by the complexities foisted by heightened ethnic and religious rivalries , there is another threat.

And the threat is that those that the APC and PDP should be watching from their rear mirror are the Labor Party, LP, energized by ex presidential candidate of PDP who decamped,mr Peter Obi, now a wave making presidential candidate of the LP and Nigerian National Political Party, NNPP , founder and presidential candidate , Dr Musa KWAKWANSO, a former governor of Kano state.

On their own , both parties and candidates pose no real threat. But combined ,they can constitute a real danger to both APC and PDP mission to Aso Rock Villa in 2023.

To be clear, while l do not see a path way to KWAKWANSO being a running mate to Obi as being speculated , it is not impossible that both parties may agree to poll resources together in a support of either of both political party’s candidates especially for the presidential election.

An even greater threat is a combination of all the opposition parties apart from the PDP against the ruling party, APC.

That would be reminiscent of what happened in 2013/14 when four opposition political parties collapsed their systems into one platform-the APC which they were able to leverage in ousting the PDP after 16 years of holding sway as the ruling party at the centre.

Currently , there are activities towards making such political phenomenon happen again, and it can not be discountenanced or dismissed because there is already proof of concept evidenced by the gang up and subsequent ability of APC to kick out PDP in 2015.

Nothing stops that positive history from being re-enacted in 2023 because it need not take another sixteen (16) years for it to materialize .

Whilst , it is not yet known whether any of the two major parties would woo the smaller parties with a view to merging with or subsuming them into their fold in the manner that the big banks took over smaller ones in the wake of banking consolidation in Nigeria in the last decade , it is unlikely that any single party, APC or PDP would without coalition with other political parties rule over Nigeria from 2023.

And that would be a positive development for democracy in Nigeria, since the president in 2023 would not have the sole authority to allot all the strategic positions to his kith and kins or members of same faith with him which is presently a sore point and a major reason that the unity of our country is on a precipice.

In the event that the party that ultimately wins the presidential contest rules in partnership with one or two smaller parties such as LP,NNPP, APGA , PRP , YPP etc, strategic government positions would be shared equitably amongst the partnering party platforms .

That is because these micro parties which are fast developing sturdy roots in their local catchment areas -ethnic or religious enclaves- would be formidable local forces, unless the behemoths like APC , PDP and to lesser extent LP and NNPP, ahead of the 2023 presidential polls, absorb them.

All said and done , authorities should do well to define what minimum educational qualifications to be eligible to become president of Nigeria entails. During the launch of my book , “Becoming President of Nigeria. A Citizen’s Guide “ on 10th May , the keynote speaker professor Mike Ikhariale, a constitutional lawyer noted that contrary to popular views, the minimum educational qualification for a president of Nigeria is not first school leaving certificate. But no certificate at all . All that is required is ability to comprehend and speak English language and that would be determined by INEC, not any law court.

Making that clarification would spare Nigerians the anguish of constantly being bombarded with the question of what is the minimum educational qualifications of a presidential candidate?

It is a challenge that the incumbent president Buhari’s candidacy also threw up in 2015 and 2019. I would not be surprised if that matter that dogged Buhari’s presidency is still in court. That the APC candidate, Bola Tinubu is also currently being wracked by that malaise, is simply because it is a nebulous rule that the National Assembly,NASS can make clearer as it did with the lacuna created by not transmitting power to the Vice President when president Umaru Yar’adua of blessed memory suddenly passed away on active duty in 2010. Although, the challenge was temporarily solved with the enactment of the Doctrine Of Necessity, it has subsequently been corrected permanently by an act of parliament which makes it automatic the absence of a president to imply that his deputy is in charge .

By the same token , the Muslim-Muslim presidency conundrum, is also a Tinubu nightmare. That is despite Kaduna state governor, Nasir El Rufai’s experiment of that configuration in his state where both he and his deputy are Muslims.

And as we all know , Kaduna state is the ground zero for ethnic and religious conflicts and the leading state in death tolls or human carnage arising from violent clashes. The tragic event in that state may likely be a direct or indirect fall out of the political configuration at the governorship level.

As an antidote to the Muslim-Muslim ticket miasma, perhaps it would help If all the strategic posts such as President, Vice President, Senate President, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Chief Justice , etc were to be laid on the bargaining table for sharing . Were that to be the case , maybe there would not be so much hullabaloo about a Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket, if upfront , Christians also get lucrative posts that would checkmate aberrant behavior by the executive. That is assuming the current polarization of our country along religious lines does not ebb but persists.

Similarly, if rotation of presidency that was hashed out during the 1994/5 general Sani Abacha convened constitutional conference were to have been embedded in the 1999 constitution by the various National Assemblies from 1999 till date ,it would not trigger the bad blood now roiling the rank and file of PDP.

Curiously, both the Nasir El-Rufai committee report on how the APC can move forward and the Bala Mohamed committee set up by the PDP to chart the future of the party made recommendations on how our beloved country can experience a rebirth .

How and why our leaders have chosen to ignore those monumentally useful recommendations, beats me hollow.

Then again , is that not why it is often said that politics is complex ?

Magnus onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.

To continue with this conversation, pls visit www.magnum.ng

July 7, 2022