The fact is, President Bola Tinubu is not exactly a miracle worker—but when it comes to political engineering, he comes remarkably close. An objective assessment of his antecedents reveals that he is one of the most astute and prolific political strategists of our time.
Based on records, and against all odds, he won the 2023 presidential election despite numerous obstacles stacked against him—not just from within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), but also from some of his political allies and even his political protégés, who, perhaps believing they had come of age, took up the gauntlet against him in the race for the presidency two years ago.
Given the formidable forces arrayed against him during the APC primary elections, few political pundits gave him any real chance of winning. Apart from having to contend with the incumbent vice president, the sitting Senate president, and a powerful Minister of Transportation—presumably backed by then-outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari—there were other seemingly insurmountable administrative obstacles placed in his path to the Aso Rock Presidential Villa.
The primaries were conducted under this toxic atmosphere, with the aforementioned powerful candidates allegedly enjoying Buhari’s endorsement. Tinubu also had to battle candidates from his immediate political family, who went head-to-head with him following the spread of malicious rumors that the president was against his candidacy—a ploy that fractured his support base within his ethnic constituency.
At that point, Tinubu’s presidential ambition seemed to be heading for an early sunset. But through sheer tenacity and doggedness, he defied the odds. As such, what many expected to be a stillborn ambition—like an ectopic pregnancy—he ultimately prevailed. Hence, Tinubu, a veteran of countless political battles, emerged as the APC’s presidential flag bearer.
Like a gifted archer, Tinubu had pulled arrows from his quiver and struck his target with precision, persuading a majority of his fellow contenders to step down for him. With that game-changing political masterstroke, he once again proved himself to be a maverick, overwhelming and confounding the remaining contestants. The second-highest number of votes went to the former Minister of Transportation, Mr. Rotimi Amaechi, Buhari’s campaign director, while the third-highest went to then-Vice President and former Lagos State Commissioner for Justice under Tinubu’s governorship, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo.
By exhibiting superior strategic planning—a skill set that has defined his political career from activism to his time as senator and governor—Tinubu rose to the top of his party’s ticket for the February 14, 2023, presidential election.
After he secured the APC ticket, another major obstacle emerged: the naira redesign policy, which posed a threat as severe as navigating the Bermuda Triangle. The withdrawal of old naira notes and their replacement with newly designed ones, right in the middle of the campaign season, could have derailed his candidacy. Without cash in the financial system, how could politicians mobilize supporters to the polls?
Once again, Tinubu navigated the crisis. The Supreme Court’s timely intervention, following a suit filed by concerned APC governors against the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), suspended the policy. The court’s ruling provided much-needed relief to a suffering electorate and enabled political campaigns to continue.
On election day—February 14, 2023—despite low voter turnout caused by the toxic political climate and earlier outlined challenges, Tinubu, against all odds, emerged victorious after a brave and tenacious fight.
He triumphed over the former ruling party, PDP’s candidate, ex-vice president Atiku Abubakar, and a surprise candidate, the Labor Party flag bearer, Peter Obi who was in 2019 the vice presidential candidate to PDP’s Atiku Abubakar, the Waziri of Adamawa.
Despite his victory, his traducers remained unrelenting. After the elections, they challenged the authenticity of his academic credentials. Having exhausted legal options in Nigeria, his detractors turned to the United States, seeking validation from that country’s academic and legal systems. There, too, Tinubu’s academic record was scrutinized and ultimately validated through rigorous processes.
Given the comprehensive scrutiny—public, electoral, and legal—both in Nigeria and abroad, it is fair to say that President Tinubu’s mandate is arguably the most thoroughly tested and authenticated in Nigeria’s democratic history.
It is important to revisit Tinubu’s extremely rough path to the presidency to underscore that he is a veteran of many political battles, unafraid of challenges. Therefore the new wave of insecurity currently causing tension—especially the rise in violent conflicts across North-Central Nigeria, notably in Plateau, Benue, and Nasarawa states—will likely be brought under control, just as the president has already made significant strides in addressing Nigeria’s socio-economic challenges.
The success of President Tinubu’s bold and visionary economic interventions in the past 24 months is evident in the fact that the economic fundamentals that were previously in negative territory have shifted to the positive under his leadership. This turnaround is the result of his tenacity and boldness in confronting entrenched administrative dogmas that have long shackled the country’s progress.
It was no surprise, therefore, that during his recent solidarity visit to Benue State—after last Wednesday’s deadly attack in Yelewata, which claimed an estimated 200 lives—President Tinubu made a strong and unifying statement:
“We can not do without one another. I want us to create a leadership committee now to meet in Abuja and fashion out a strategy for lasting peace. And I am ready to invest in that peace.”
Being a highly trained accountant and an alumnus of the global oil firm Mobil before venturing into politics, President Bola Tinubu has mastered the art of prioritization. Consequently, tackling the monster of insecurity was not at the top of his initial priority list. However, after taking the time to personally visit victims of the latest attacks, he now appears ready to take on the murderous gangs. During his visit, he openly queried the heads of the security agencies in his entourage:
“How come no one has been arrested for committing this heinous crime in Yelewata? Inspector General of Police, where are the arrests? The criminals must be arrested immediately,” President Tinubu demanded.
This recalls a similar moment during the military era when then Head of State, General Ibrahim Babangida, during a Supreme Military Council meeting (the equivalent of today’s National Executive Council), publicly asked the Inspector General of Police at the time, Muhammadu Gambo-Jimeta, the now-iconic rhetorical question: “Where is Anini?”
Anini was the leader of a notorious armed robbery gang that terrorized Nigerians and evaded capture for months—just as today’s internal terrorists continue to torment Nigerians in the hinterlands These insurgents kill defenceless civilians, often burning them alive in their homes, and have done so with impunity and without facing serious consequences.
But President Tinubu’s visit to the ground zero of internal terrorism in Makurdi, and his charge to the heads of the military, police, and the Department of State Services to apprehend the perpetrators and bring them to justice, signal a major turning point. The president appears to have run out of patience, and his strong directive should make it clear to the outlaws terrorizing our rural communities that the Nigerian government will no longer tolerate their impunity.
Concerning putting the nation’s economy on even keel, from experience, we know that taming inflation—which is one of the key pathways to delivering the dividends of democracy—does not happen overnight. As history shows, while decline can occur swiftly, recovery often takes more time. Although the lived experiences of most Nigerians are yet to align with the significantly improved economic fundamentals, President Tinubu has succeeded in putting Nigeria on a growth trajectory. This progress has been acknowledged by global rating agencies such as Fitch and Moody’s, as well as institutions like the IMF and World Bank. Even international media outlets like the Financial Times, which once painted a grim picture of Nigeria, are now reporting more optimistically.
Palpable hope—promised in President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope agenda—appears to be on the horizon.
Despite the evidential data, still convincing Nigerians that the economy is indeed improving has been difficult. That is irrespective of the arduous but strategic reforms carried out over the past twenty-four months by President Tinubu and his team. It is rather discomforting that many citizens continue to wear long faces, as they are grappling with the high cost of living. They have yet to feel the economic relief being touted, even as the administration marked its second anniversary.
In my column last week, I broke down the reasons why the benefits of reform do not immediately trickle down to the masses. My intention in that piece, titled “Democracy, GDP Growth, Poverty and Insecurity in Nigeria”, was to manage the expectations of anxious Nigerians who are still experiencing hardship resulting from the sweeping reforms. I emphasized that while things are indeed improving, the positive outcomes may not be felt immediately in their daily lives.
In essence, expecting an immediate and significant reduction in the cost of living would be premature. The economic difficulties currently faced by the masses are unintended consequences of the administration’s tough but necessary decisions to unshackle the economy from outdated policies that had long stunted Nigeria’s growth.
Previously, economic managers opted for short-term relief that only postponed the inevitable, as evidenced by the CBN’s unsustainable and unlawful printing of ₦23 trillion in “ways and means” to pay salaries and fund government operations by Tinubu’s era.
Such an adhoc and knee-jerk approach to managing the economy has been jettisoned even though its discarding is the source of the harsh socio-economic environment in which Nigerians are currently caught up
Even Tinubu’s harshest critics admit that, had he not introduced key reforms—such as the removal of the petrol subsidy and the unification of multiple naira-to-foreign currency exchange rates—Nigeria could have faced economic collapse. Continuing on the old path could have rendered the country insolvent and pushed us into a debt crisis like:
1. Argentina, which experienced multiple debt defaults (notably in 2001 and 2014), leading to devastating economic consequences.
2. Greece, which went through a severe debt crisis in the late 2000s and early 2010s, resulted in extreme austerity measures.
3. Venezuela, whose economy collapsed under hyperinflation and debt defaults.
4. Zambia, which defaulted on its Eurobond debt in 2020.
5. Pakistan has repeatedly required bailouts from international financial institutions due to recurring debt crises.
To provide context, I urge Nigerians who are currently agonizing under economic hardship to imagine how much worse life could have been if President Tinubu had not intervened with his bold reform agenda. Compared to the fate of citizens in the countries listed above, Nigeria appears to have dodged a bullet.
Even former opponents of the reforms now acknowledge their necessity. The changes, while painful in the short term, are essential to placing Nigeria on a stable economic footing. Though hardship is expected at the outset, these difficulties are temporary, and the long-term benefits are beginning to emerge on the horizon.
The easing of harsh economic conditions, made possible by these structural reforms, is paving the way for the opportunities that Nigerians have long awaited. These are the true dividends of democracy, which have been sought since the return to multi-party democracy in 1999—now twenty-six years ago, as marked on May 29.
It is because President Tinubu has essentially rescued Nigerians from the kind of socio-economic collapse witnessed in Argentina, Greece, Venezuela, Zambia, and Pakistan, that I confidently declare:
“Those Calling Tinubu T-Pain Today Will Hail Him as Baba-T Tomorrow.”
This praise will come in recognition of the relief and transformation he is bound to deliver by eliminating the unsustainable subsidies on petrol, electricity, and the naira amongst other structural deformities hobbling economic growth of our country.
In the series I began last week titled “Democracy, GDP Growth, Poverty, and Insecurity in Nigeria”, I sought to explain why high GDP growth does not automatically translate into poverty reduction—a universal phenomenon, not one unique to Nigeria.
The tax reform bills recently passed by the National Assembly and currently awaiting President Tinubu’s signature are some of the most pro-poor policies under his administration. One of the four bills will exempt a category of low-income earners—particularly those at the lower rungs of the socioeconomic ladder—from paying personal income tax. At the same time, it increases taxes on the wealthy, especially on luxury items. This reflects a deliberate wealth redistribution policy.
The new tax legislation will also incentivize states and cities to attract high-employment-generating businesses to set up operations within their territories. This is because the law provides for a 30% revenue accrual to the state of origin or location of goods and services. Consequently, the business acumen and entrepreneurial orientation of gubernatorial candidates will become increasingly critical in determining who gets elected, as economic strategy will matter more than ever in the governance of Nigerian states. In the US, for instance. States compete to be the host to Tesla, GM, and similar high employment generating corporations.
When President Tinubu signs these bills into law—as expected—it will be a significant milestone. To me, the most comforting aspect of the tax reform is its pro-poor orientation. This means Nigerians who are already burdened by the tough but necessary reforms of the Tinubu administration will not be further strained. Instead, the tax base will be expanded in a way that spares the poor while drawing more from those who can afford it.
The revised tax regime introduces new rates and bands. Individuals earning below the national minimum wage will be exempt from taxation. Conversely, those earning ₦50 million and above annually will be subject to progressive increases in their income tax liability.
These bills—widely regarded as a game-changer in Nigeria’s tax administration—form a critical part of President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope agenda aimed at resetting the country’s economic architecture. They also validate a key argument I made in my column last week: that several economic fundamentals must be in place before the benefits of GDP growth can trickle down to the masses.
For instance, unless a critical mass of Nigerians understands the link between GDP and poverty reduction, the government can spend a fortune on publicity campaigns touting the administration’s achievements—but many citizens will remain unconvinced This is because, in the minds of ordinary Nigerians, an increase in GDP is falsely equated with immediate poverty relief. That misunderstanding is what I hope to address through this piece.
In truth, GDP growth is a precursor—not an instant solution—to poverty alleviation. It serves as a silver lining or beacon of hope, provided the policies driving the growth are implemented consistently and all other supporting economic conditions are aligned.
When Nigerians are equipped with the knowledge that rising GDP does not translate into instant prosperity, their anxiety will subside. They will become less cynical about government pronouncements and more patient as the benefits begin to unfold.
On May 8, 2023, during the launch of my book “Leading From The Streets: Media Interventions by a Media Intellectual (1999–2019),” a panel discussion on Tinubu’s reform policies was held under the theme “Tinubunomics: What’s Working, What’s Not, Why, and the Way Forward.”
A striking comment from one of the panelists, Mr. Bala Zaka—an engineer and accountant—went viral. He declared that Nigeria’s economy was “in red, not amber,” painting a bleak picture of the reform trajectory at the time.
Today, however, even Tinubu’s fiercest critics acknowledge that, under his deft leadership, economic fundamentals have significantly improved. If we were to use the traffic light metaphor, Nigeria’s economy is now in the amber zone—the transition phase just before green, which symbolizes progress and economic rebound. This implies that while the squeeze caused by reform is still being felt, the country is now on a positive trajectory.
However, the public mistakenly believes that government spokespeople are suggesting that the economy is already in the green. This disconnect is what I seek to clarify—to help reduce the rising tension among anxious Nigerians.
For example, when I published an article on LinkedIn with the metaphor “the ice is thawing on the Nigerian economy,” many misunderstood me to mean that the storm was over. It led to a wave of criticism and misinterpretation, with some labeling me a Tinubu apologist. It took over a month of continued engagement—using empirical data and economic theory—to clarify the difference between improving economic fundamentals and the lived experiences of ordinary Nigerians.
That personal experience reinforces my resolve to continuously invest time in educating the public about the dissonance between macroeconomic recovery and micro-level impact. Just because there is light at the end of the tunnel does not mean we are already basking in its illumination.
Therefore, the objective of this piece is to manage expectations. We are not yet at Uhuru—the economy is not fully out of the woods—but we are on the cusp of stability, provided the reforms are sustained and citizens remain patient.
Culturally, Nigerians are often accustomed to raising hopes and dashed expectations—not always from politicians, but from everyday interactions. For instance, it’s common for someone who knows they can not arrive in under three hours to promise they’ll be there in 30 minutes. When the promise is inevitably broken, disappointment ensues. In local parlance, this is known as “African Time,” and it symbolizes overpromising and underdelivering.
In the political realm, former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo aptly described it as: “Campaign in poetry, govern in prose.”
In contrast, in more developed societies, when you apply for a driver’s license or international passport, you are told to expect it in six weeks, knowing that it can be delivered in a shorter time. And often, you receive it in four. Exceeding expectations builds trust.
In that context, I advise government officials to refrain from declaring that “the suffering is over”—especially to a public that has long felt alienated from the government, regardless of the administration in power. Instead, we must contextualize the message of hope by reminding Nigerians of where we are coming from and highlighting visible progress:
• Establishment of NELFUND
• Minimum wage increase to ₦70,000
• Elimination of salary backlogs for public servants
• FX reserves boost at the CBN
• A stable naira and improved FX availability
• Declining inflation
• Elimination of petrol queues.
Introduction of CreditCorp to offer soft loans to those who need it.
Once this context is set, we can confidently project into the future—for example, explaining how the four tax reform bills will benefit ordinary Nigerians and foist incomd redistribution while expanding the tax base and generating revenue for government to provide more infrastructure and offer social services.Similarly, we should emphasize the socioeconomic impact of major infrastructure projects such as:
• The coastal roads – Lagos to Calabar- that will open up rural communities and convert dormant land into valuable assets
• The Badagry–Sokoto highway, which—like the Lagos–Calabar highway—will traverse multiple states across both the southern and northern regions, spreading development across the country and converting the abundant and currently idle land from dead capital to active capital.
As I noted in my column last week, the two major road construction projects recently flagged off by the Tinubu administration offer more tangible opportunities for Nigerians—especially those at the lower rungs of society—to escape poverty than mega ventures like the $20 billion Dangote Refinery or the $5 billion Bonga offshore oil exploration project by Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC). This is because oil and gas ventures are typically enclave industries: capital-intensive but job-scarce, with high profits concentrated in the hands of a few.
That said, this does not diminish the significance of the Dangote Refinery and Bonga projects. Far from it—they are catalytic investments with immense long-term benefits. Their eventual trickle-down impact will align with the logic of trickle-down economics, where wealth initially concentrated in the hands of a few gradually spreads through value chain activities such as small- and medium-scale enterprises (SMEs) and the employment of artisans.
Indeed, the Dangote Refinery is already positioned to demonstrate how trickle-down economics works. Through its ongoing initiative to retail energy—particularly Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)—directly to the masses via an extensive distribution infrastructure, it promises to be a disruptive game-changer in the energy sector.
All these developments are credible and inspiring enough to renew hope among Nigerians—far more effective than dismissing citizens who express that their lived experiences have yet to align with the rosy economic projections broadcast by government spokespeople
The truth is, beyond economic data, Nigerians in the streets have difficulty believing that food prices on which they spend 95% of their in income, for example, in Mile 12 market have dropped significantly from a year ago. If President Tinubu stays consistent with his reformist agenda—as he has pledged—then within the next 6 to 12 months, the current economic hardship could ease. At that point, even skeptics may acknowledge him as a leader who delivered.
Supporters and critics alike will agree that since the administration hit the 18-month mark and paused the introduction of new reforms that directly negatively impact the masses, and promote the policies that are pro poor such duty removal on importation of food, the prices of essential foods and related supplies have stabilized That consistency is a sign that the economic tide may soon turn in favor of ordinary Nigerians.
Compelled to take direct action in response to the alarming insecurity crisis—particularly after the tragic killing of 200 people in the farming community of Yelwata, Benue State (some estimates put the death toll over 1,000 in the last year)—President Tinubu appears ready to elevate security to a top priority. During his visit, he made a firm vow to protect lives and property and provide critical infrastructure.
If security improves, food insecurity could also ease, as farmers would be able to return safely to their fields, boosting food production. This, in turn, would allow more Nigerians to feel—not just hear about—the upward trajectory in GDP and other economic indicators. Only then can they fully appreciate and laud President Tinubu and his team.
In my column last week, I proposed that the president direct security agencies to embark on massive recruitment of able-bodied Nigerian men and women into law enforcement to occupy the fallow spaces that bandits and marauders take refuge. While that proposal wasn’t entirely original to me, it was a prominent component of President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope agenda during his campaign. He had consistently promised to recruit Nigeria’s youth—who make up about 65% of the population—into both the agriculture and security sectors.
So far, this promise has not climbed up the priority list of President Tinubu due to the deluge of society’s needs begging for attention. There is a limit of projects and programs that he can implement basically due to the paucity of funds.Therefore, they have largely been fulfilled only on paper. A simple online search using Meta’s AI tool reveals numerous youth-targeted initiatives by the Tinubu administration aimed at empowering young Nigerians through agriculture. These include:
• The Green Money Project: A presidential initiative designed to empower youth through agriculture by providing training, support, and resources to develop agribusiness potential.
• Youth Farmers Enrollment Portal: Launched by the federal government to combat unemployment and food insecurity by offering access to training, modern techniques, mentorship, and financial support.
• Nigerian Youth Academy (NiYA): Focused on building human capital through digital skills, technical education, entrepreneurship, and the creative economy.
• Youth Investment Fund: Provides capital, mentorship, and business support to young entrepreneurs.
• Presidential Initiative for Youth Enterprise Clusters: Aims to empower youth with entrepreneurial skills and resources.
Against Mr. President’s intention, these initiatives remain largely dormant. Their stated objectives—to create jobs, boost food security, empower youth, and grow the economy—have not materialized because they have yet to be fully activated or institutionalized.
In my assessment, these are well-conceived programs. What’s missing, however, is an ombudsman in the presidency—a dedicated figure or office responsible for driving policy implementation and serving as a conduit for public feedback. That is the central argument of my 2023 book “Leading From the Streets: Media Interventions by a Public Intellectual (1999–2019).”
It is heartening to note that two recipients of the Leading From the Streets awards—Professor Wole Soyinka and Colonel Abubakar Dangiwa Umar—have recently been recognized by President Tinubu with national honors for their advocacy and contributions to Nigeria’s democratic evolution. Prof. Soyinka was awarded the GCON, and Col. Umar received the CFR.
However, when the time came to confer the Leading From The Streets award, Col. Umar could not travel to Lagos due to the high-security risks associated with Kaduna at that time. Airlines could neither land nor take off from Kaduna Airport because of credible threats posed by terrorists and criminal elements operating in that corridor at that time.Traveling by road to Abuja feom kaduna at that time was equally highly unsafe.But the road are safer now.It’s both distressing and telling that such a situation with the airport persists. But l am optimistic that in the second half of President Tinubu’s first tenure. Kaduna Airport will be reopened with security guaranteed.
Nonetheless, in the spirit of Renewed Hope, I remain optimistic that President Tinubu will change this grim narrative—not in months, but in weeks. From all indications, insecurity has finally moved to the top of his priority list.
If the projections and policy implementations outlined above materialize, I am confident in predicting that those calling Tinubu “T-Pain” today will one day hail him as “Baba-T”—a term of endearment for respected community leaders. In this case, the community is none other than the Nigerian nation.
Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, and alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, is a Commonwealth Institute scholar and a former commissioner in the Delta State government. He sent this piece from Toronto, Canada.