Dr. Ndiame Diop, the World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, has emphasized that Nigeria’s rapidly growing working-age population, which is expected to reach approximately 100 million in the next 25 years, presents a unique opportunity for the country to become a major global economic driver. According to Diop, this demographic growth will not only outpace that of Africa but will also have global significance, particularly given the aging populations in East Asia and Europe.
However, Diop stressed that realizing this potential depends on Nigeria’s ability to create millions of additional formal, productive job opportunities for its increasingly educated and tech-savvy youth. He made these remarks during the Distinguished Personality Lecture Series, organized by the Department of Agricultural Economics at the University of Ibadan on Tuesday. The lecture, titled “Leveraging Agricultural Transformation for Sustainable Economic Development in Nigeria: Key Considerations,” was chaired by Senator Abubakar Bagudu, the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, at the Trenchard Hall of the University.
In his address, Dr. Diop highlighted the importance of transforming Nigeria’s economy, noting that economic growth alone is not enough. He argued that the country’s transformation must accelerate the transition of workers from low-productivity, low-paying, and often informal jobs to more productive and higher-paying positions.
Drawing on both economic theory and real-world examples, Diop emphasized the critical role of agricultural transformation in boosting the overall competitiveness of Nigeria’s economy. He pointed out that enhancing agricultural productivity is key to reducing poverty and raising income levels, particularly in developing countries where agriculture often accounts for a large portion of employment.
Dr. Diop elaborated on the demographic shift Nigeria is facing, with around 5.5 million people entering the labor force each year. Over the next quarter-century, the country’s working-age population is expected to grow by 100 million. He called this rapid increase a “unique opportunity” for Nigeria to emerge as a major economic force, particularly in the context of demographic trends in other regions such as East Asia and Europe.
Despite this opportunity, Diop noted the significant challenge Nigeria faces in creating formal employment. He explained that only about 8 percent of employed youth in Nigeria held formal jobs in 2019. He also pointed out that African nations, including Nigeria, tend to create far fewer formal jobs per unit of GDP growth compared to other regions, generating about half the number seen in East Asia.
This low proportion of formal sector jobs, combined with the dominance of informal, low-productivity work, means that securing employment in many African countries, including Nigeria, does not guarantee an escape from poverty. In fact, a large majority of workers in these nations do not earn enough to reliably enter or remain in the middle class.
To improve employment outcomes, Dr. Diop stressed that Nigeria’s economy must not only grow faster but also undergo a significant transformation. This transformation needs to focus on shifting workers from low-wage, informal jobs to higher-productivity, formal employment. He also emphasized the importance of boosting agricultural productivity, especially since agriculture employs a large portion of the workforce in many developing countries, where it has some of the lowest productivity levels.
In conclusion, Dr. Diop argued that fostering such a transformation is crucial for Nigeria’s economic development and poverty reduction, with agriculture playing a pivotal role in lifting the nation toward a more prosperous and sustainable future.