By Ediri Oyibo
The race for Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election is already shaping into a high-stakes showdown, pitting incumbent President Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) against a fractured but determined opposition.
Officially endorsed by the APC in May 2025 as its sole candidate for second term, Tinubu’s campaign machinery is already in motion, buoyed by defections from opposition ranks and his bold economic reforms, even as Nigerians cope with a deepening cost-of-living crisis.
Yet, Tinubu’s grasp on power isn’t without challenge.
His administration’s structural changes, fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate liberalisation, stabilising monetary policy and improving oil production have attracted praise from investors and multilateral institutions.
However, these same reforms have inflated prices and burdened households, putting the government under sustained pressure to deliver tangible relief before 2027.
Nigeria’s political establishment also seethes with critiques of elite detachment.
Timothy Osadolor, a member of the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and presently, the National Deputy Youth Leader of the party, lambasted Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Mr George Akume, for being “unaware that people are suffering,” noting, “Come 2027, Nigerians will have the authority to rehabilitate and rebuild the country.” It was “most unfortunate for anyone to want to shut down the ambition of another… This is a democracy,” he said.
Another regional voice, Prof. Vitalis Orikeze Ajumbe of the Coalition of Southern Groups (CSG), warned that Tinubu’s reforms had not translated into relief. “This administration has given us hardship,” he said, pointing to rampant fuel price hikes, even after refinery revivals, rising food and transport costs, and telecom hikes as symptoms of systemic failure.
On the flip side, APC supporters insist the reforms will bear fruit in time. “Even if at a slow pace, Nigerians will come to realise that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu means well for the country,” declared an APC spokesperson, emphasising hope for a legacy-building reelection.
These tensions meet a restless population split between despair and cautious optimism. A BusinessDay’s poll noted only 12.5% of Nigerians were confident the opposition can offer a strong alternative, while 63.5% were not. Public expressions are blunt: “They’re all birds of the same feather. I don’t think my vote will make a difference,” lamented one respondent.
Compounding the crisis are surging rural violence across the North, featuring brutal clashes and extremist attacks, that continue to expose the administration’s inability to guarantee security for millions of citizens.
On the opposition front, unity remains elusive. A newly formed Africa Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition, led by former presidential contenders Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, along with ex-governors and lawmakers, has emerged with the strategic goal of preventing a one-party state and rallying Nigerians around a credible alternative.
The historical echo of the 2015 coalition that ended PDP’s 16-year rule lends urgency to the mission of the ADC coalition. Analysts argue that without genuine cohesion, the opposition’s efforts may fall short of mounting a credible threat to Tinubu’s incumbency.
Yet the coalition’s path is riddled with internal dissent. Key players like Atiku, Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, and former governors such as Nasir El-Rufai and Fayemi Kayode are still at odds over zoning, power-sharing, and agreeing on a consensus candidate.
“The coalition will stop Nigeria from becoming a one-party state,” declared ADC interim chairman, David Mark. Analyst Cheta Nwanze put it plainly: “You cannot remove a sitting government if the opposition is disunited”.
While insiders dismiss claims of a collapse, observers note that the failure of the opposition to agree on a single party platform continues to hobble their progress.
The opposition’s struggle isn’t just political, but structural. The PDP is grappling with dysfunction and internal power plays, making it vulnerable to defections that have already seen prominent figures abandon ship for the ruling APC.
Labour Party internal conflicts and leadership disputes with Peter Obi only deepen the fragmentation. Even the NNPP and its leader, Rabiu Kwankwaso, face the risk of derailment unless an alliance crystallises, possibly as Obi’s running mate, as some analysts speculate.
Farooq A. Kperogi puts it bluntly: “In 2027, Tinubu may stagger into a second term not because he inspires, but because he survives; not because he triumphs, but because those who should have dethroned him will… hand him victory on a silver platter.”
A major question hanging over the election’s outcome is Nigeria’s electoral credibility. The 2023 election was marred by logistical failures and mistrust in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Analysts insist that unless INEC ensures transparent, technology-backed processes, even the opposition’s strongest moves could fail to convert into victory, and a flawed result could stir unrest.
Additionally, engaging Nigeria’s youth, who make up about 70% of the electorate, is non-negotiable: disillusioned by recycled leaders and empty rhetoric, they demand fresh policy solutions, not promises.
The mechanics of Nigeria’s electoral system also loom large. Nigeria’s political calculus demands more than consensus; it needs geographic balance. Under the modified two-round presidency rules, a candidate must secure a plurality and at least 25% of votes in two-thirds of states, raising the stakes for regional balancing.
Tinubu won his native South-West but failed to gain traction in the South-East and South-South in 2023. To prevail in 2027, he must shore up support across these zones while the opposition fights for consolidation.
In the meantime, economic woes and regional sensitivities continue to shape public sentiment. Inflation, youth disillusionment, and food insecurity are simmering pressure points that the opposition is trying to channel into anti-incumbency momentum.
Surveys show that competency, not religion or ethnicity, is emerging as a campaign slogan. While many still favour a Southern candidate, voters in many areas are demanding real performance, not just pedigree.
As the countdown begins, with INEC only set to formally initiate the process by February 2026, the race for 2027 is becoming a battle of narratives, coalitions, and credibility.
Tinubu’s firm control of his party and reforms give him a tangible advantage, but the electorate’s mood could shift if the opposition finds its footing.
The coalescing of economic hardship, demand for democratic accountability, and a fragmented, yet potentially potent coalition, could deliver surprises.
In Nigeria’s volatile political theatre, incumbency, reform, and party machinery matter, but so do unity, credibility, and the ability to deliver hope.
Whether Tinubu retains the mantle of victory or an opposition force finally checks the ruling party’s power, the outcome hinges on who best navigates the volatile convergence of politics and policy when Nigeria goes to the polls in 2027.