…will president Tinubu openly endorse candidates?
…180 lawmakers-elect to decide who emerges as speaker
…Yari’s underground moves threatens anointed candidates
… subtle threats from north
As Nigerians patiently wait for the next leaders of the National Assembly in the next 48 hours, the ghost of the 2015 Assembly elections seems to be lurking around the corner.
President Muhammadu Buhari’s attempt to prove himself as a true democrat in 2015 was properly rubbished by lawmakers as they voted according to the dictates of their conscience. The Senate produced an APC president supported by a PDP deputy president.
TheNewsGuru.com, (TNG) in this analysis will x-ray the past and the shape of things to come in the next 48hours as lawmakers-elect pick their leaders.
2015 definitely will rear its ugly head if the APC fails to adequately micro-manage the present situation or better still microwave it to produce a heavily lopsided NASS in 2023.
In the same 2015, Ahmad Lawan and Femi Hakeem Gbajabiamila were the crowned candidates of the APC, the party microwaved the situation and got its fingers properly burnt.
Still on the memory lane of 2015, Femi Gbajabiamila was the anointed candidate of the APC and lawmakers-elect still poophooed the arrangements as Yakubu Dogara that was not crowned miraculously emerged as speaker winning with just eight votes.
By 2019, Buhari had learnt his lesson as he openly endorsed his NASS candidates 48hours before his proclamation.
The question boggling the minds of most critical stakeholders is whether president Tinubu will openly endorse the party candidates considering the fact that the permutations and configurations are different this time around. APC those not have an overwhelming majority like in the previous assemblies.
Configurations of Senators-elect in the tenth NASS:
The strongest opposition political party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has 36 senators-elect, the Labour Party (LP), has eight members, while the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and the Social Democratic Party (SDP) have two members each.
The All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and Young Peoples Progressive Party (YPP) also have one member each.
APC has majority with 59 Senators-elect.
Definitely whoever controls the votes of the opposition parties will produce the next Senate President. The governors bloc in the Senate has an overriding role to play if APC can break their rank.
HoR:
The ruling APC has 177 members-elect while six opposition parties have 182 reps-elect combined. This has changed the political permutations and narrative of 2023. Unlike in 2019 that APC had 162 Reps-elect the situation out there now is that the opposition parties have the greater majority.
This singular development has led to the formation of different power blocs producing different coalitions that’s heavily threatening the ruling party.
Despite this development, the APC can still turn the table around by ensuring that a free playing level pitch is created by trying to collapse all the coalitions into one body and deliver its anointed candidates.
But it’s a difficult task in the House because most returning members are still nursing wounds sustained during and after the House leadership emerged. There’s urgent need to properly heal those wounds and allow sweet breeze to ventilate before proclamation on Tuesday.
Those in the forefront in the House are no pushovers. A Tajudeen Abass with a towering credentials heavily backed by the APC leadership. The Headboy from Borno, Aliyu Betara that has sympathy from his colleagues because of his fatherly role in their various endeavours can never be a pushover.
An Idris Wase that was begged to accept deputy speaker in 2019 and strongly believing that there was a prophecy backing his possibility of becoming speaker after being a deputy.
Others in the speakership race just want to bear the name of a contender nothing else. They will definitely bow to pressure.
In the Senate it may just be a straight fight between the most uncommon former Minister and uncommon governor, Godswill Akpabio and former Governor of Zamfara Abdulaziz Yari who has been releasing salvos from underground.
As for the weeping Senator Orji Kalu if he’s still in the race would have helped to shove aside anointed candidates but he is said to be a very faithful party man.
In the House, there are 358 Reps-elect, two seats are vacant due to the passage of a member who passed on after emerging in his Taraba constituency, the other vacant seat is that of a Cross River constituency that was declared inconclusive by INEC.
What’s at stake is 180 Reps-elect that are needed to produce the next speaker instead of the traditional 181 Reps-elect based on 360 House membership.
Conclusion, two possibilities that could change the present situation which are one: If president decides to openly endorse APC anointed candidates which could turn out positively or negatively. Two: If he decides to look the other way and allow the forces work according to the dictates of the lawmakers-elect. This too could turn out positively but anybody could emerge.
He has met with all the contenders, by now he should know their mindsets. A Yari could pull a surprise and a Betara can upstage all political permutations.
Tinubu should not be in a hurry to undermine the subtle threats of the north demanding for the positions of presiding officers in the National Assembly. There’s no smoke without fire.