It is too early to worry about the coalition to fight Tinubu in 2027. Even if the lion is ensnarled, you do not approach it with bare hands. You give all the benefits of doubt and go very prepared for any eventuality. When the coalition was announced some weeks ago, there was some breathe of relief across the land. This was, however, not in the air-tight assurance that the days of Bola Ahmed Tinubu as President could now be counted. It was more in the feeling that a ferocious tiger was being released into the jungle to place limits on the recklessness of the lion. With the coalition, as hyped, the event billed for 2027 could rise to its billing of a true presidential election instead of a mere coronation anniversary of a reigning king.
The picture presented on July 2, 2025 was that of combat readiness. The coalition announcer, Raph Nwosu, sounded very urgent. He said Nigeria is right now in a place called ICU and that seasoned healers are being assembled under an interventionist platform called African Democratic Alliance (ADC) to intervene. ICU is a special ward in a general hospital. It means Intensive Care Unit. As the name implies, persons admitted in it are intensively cared for or else they die. To put it bluntly, ICU is a sweet name or an euphemism to describe the death chamber of a health facility. Persons admitted there are actually waiting to die. Short and simple! In other words, Mr. Raph Nwosu was telling Nigerians on that special day that Nigeria has been admitted to die in Aso Rock Villa, Abuja and that, healers from the nooks and crannies of the country are needed to save it from dying.
This is also saying that the ADC is on a self-appointed mission to save Nigeria. It is just that the venture is resonating because people are truly seeking any form of adventure to lessen the boredom of the moment. Before now, the ADC had appeared the most unlikely entity for the task it has assigned itself. It was among the many other empty political vessels that create the impression of a multi-party democracy in Nigeria. They are usually heard during elections, after which, they would slip into hibernation and wait for the next electoral season to make so much noise again. Their owners only manage to maintain them in anticipation of some kind of fortune either through a merger or an acquisition deal.
What has happened with the African Democratic Congress is not different from this. In a way therefore, some of these marginal and non-legacy political parties should be assisted to survive. They come handy in times of national emergency when efforts need to be concerted to take down a formidable public enemy.
Ralph Nwosu can easily pass for a faithful and consistent political entrepreneur. In real enterprise, he would rank among the Dangotes. His resilience and faithfulness had kept the ADC alive and attractive for acquisition by disparate portfolio political investors with heavy eyes on the 2027 high stakes bidding. The deal came at a time that passing the head of a full-grown camel through the eye of a needle was easier than getting INEC to register a new political party for contest in 2027. In fact, the investors that finally berthed in the ADC had tried to float their own party but INEC neither agreed nor disagreed. It only placed studs that made the acquisition of ADC a much easier option. It became a situation of when what was desirable was not available. The team simply reclined and made what was available, desirable. It didn’t make good sense marking endless time with a most hesitant umpire that entertains no qualms in breaching its own rules and creating new ones in the middle of the game to reach specific ends.
The attendance at the acquisition ceremony was robust. For the records, the investors are politicians from across platforms of which the PDP is the most notable. Faces at the ceremony include Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, David Mark, Peter Obi, Bukola Saraki, Rabiu Kwakwanso, Rotimi Amaechi, Nasir El-Rufai, Rauf Aregbesola, among others. These are very tall names. Abubakar is a former Vice President who has been working tirelessly, including switching political parties like caftans, since 1993, to become president. He has not retired. David Mark and Bukola Saraki headed the National Assembly at different times as Presidents of the Senate. Introducing Peter Obi is superfluous. He does not need it. Kwakwanso, Amaechi, El-Rufai and Ogbeni Aregbesola were state governors at different times and have remained recurring in all major political calculations since 1999.
These loud names in their combined decibels are enough to affect good hearing and create anxiety in the Lion’s den. And they have truly. Hence what to do to dissipate the gathering storm called ADC has remained a major issue, outside mis-governance, in Aso Rock Villa since the Coalition was announced about a month ago.
The speeches at the takeover ceremony were even more reassuring. First, the original owners of the ADC, represented by its chairman, Ralph Nwosu, spoke to underline the significance of the day. That is, while the name would remain, ADC would however change content and character to reflect the new ownership structure. The man is very passionate about discharging the country from the ICU. He came close to placing a curse on anyone within the old ADC structure who works to impede the stated mission. Such a person ‘’does not love Nigeria’’ he said.
Nwosu allegedly turned down an offer of a ministerial appointment by the Tinubu administration thrice just to remain focused on the mission. He willingly yielded complete control to the ADC’s new chairman, Senator David Mark, who entered proclaiming a determination to accomplish the mission at all costs. Peter Obi pleaded for focus because the harvest appears larger than the workforce. He asked all key gladiators, including himself, to subsume their ambition to become president under the singular mission to discharge Nigeria from the ICU.
Everything had looked good. It was like after God was done with creation. The Almighty was reported in the Book of Genesis to have taken a panoramic view of the outlay and affirmed His own perfection. What He created was good. This was, however, before the devil started his own creation to cast spanner in God’s good work. And things have never looked good again since then. This is also where we are with the mission to take out Nigeria from the ICU. The coalition is getting anaemic too early in the day and it is looking as if, it, itself, would be admitted as a second patient to join Nigeria at the ICU.
The PDP that is cast to drive the mission is ironically the one causing the coalition to lose blood and vital fluids. The party is asking for the same thing that the coalition is seeking. It is itching to touch off a mock mission. This is not normal. Everything is pointing to the fact that the lion is not sleeping. He is afield hunting prey.
Two weeks ago, I sounded a warning on this page. The Jagaban is like a drunken king cobra. Outside intoxication, the king cobra portends enough danger. And in a drunken state, its lethal capabilities are better add safer imagined than experienced. It will take more than conventional tactics to contain a drunken king cobra. At the risk of sounding trite, I am saying it here again, that Bola Ahmed Tinubu is not a Goodluck Jonathan. He is a man of immense capabilities and capacity. He had taken down fortresses without added advantages. Now, with all the ace cards up his sleeves, dispatching him is possible but same cannot rely entirely on commonplace logic, morality and imagination. Real action and affirmation must be added to redistribute the advantages that President Tinubu exclusively wields in the unfolding power game.
In the months ahead, BAT shall glide in all directions to poach workers of iniquity for his purpose. To make the mission impossible for the coalition. Only yesterday, it was reported that Nafiu Bala who contested the Gombe State governorship election in 2023 under the ADC, and until the acquisition deal, the party’s national deputy chairman, has walked back on the deal and declared himself national chairman of ADC to supplant Senator David Mark. There shall be more of this kind of stories as the countdown to 2027 narrows. It will only require a hefty budget to recruit high, middle and low levels manpower to roam and sow seeds of discord across the political terrain.
Still, the PDP is getting more intriguing by the day. It does not want to live and it does not want to die too. It is like the dying Urhobo strongman who has his life wrapped up in a charm ( uhuvwu oyovwi ) at the rooftop. Until, the roof crashes to base to bring the charm in contact with earth, his spirit will not depart.
The sudden resurgence in the PDP is not ordinary. It has something to with PBAT. It is designed to cause a pull in all directions. Right now, it is not only Nyesom Wike that is precipitating a centrifugal force to dismember the PDP. Other people have joined him. Even Ali Modu Sheriff has regained confidence, after his failed crusades to kill the PDP for the APC, to mount the podium to pontificate on values. Ayo Fayose is talking too. Bukola Saraki, Prof. Jerry Gana, Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State and host of others are reasserting their PDPness as if that fact had been in doubt. These are not lightweight men. They are mighty men of valour in politics. They are known for transactions that cut the nose to spite the face. Other political parties are undergoing the same degree of implosions in a coordinated preemptive strikes by the king cobra.
Needless to say that the Jagaban has all his instincts intact. And the coalition should be worried. Very worried, that is. Even if the sentiments lie outside him as he wanes in overall rating, the advantages are comprehensively within the control of BAT. Above all, to win against a champion, he must not only be beaten but seen to have been beaten. This was exactly what Mohammed Ali told Ken Norton after their keenly contested heavy weight bout on September 28, 1976 in New York City. Norton who felt he fought better and therefore more deserving of a win instead of Ali was told that champions are not defeated by luck.
Apparently, the coalition has got real work to do. Victory against the Jagaban cannot be gratuitous. To sway the jury and all the other invisible factors in the decision making, the challenger must be seen to have defeated the champion hands down. In fact, the coalition should aim for a knockout. I will not say more than this. A word, they say, is enough for the wise.