By Steve Egbo
On Friday, June 20, the TheNewsGuru, a multi media company, published an interview with former Senator and founder of Silverbird Group, Ben Murray-Bruce, in which he predicted that a Third World War was imminent.
This view, expressed by the Senator, has actually become very common among many observers and commentators. Understandebly, this apprehension have been heightened by the volatility in the Middle East and Persian Gulf region especially since the outbreak of the conflict between Israel and Iran. The Gulf have always been a crisis zone with the capacity, many fear, to ignite a conflagration that has the potential of engulfing the whole world.
The Senator said “I think we are in trouble. I think there’s too much violence in the world today. I think access to weapons is easy. I think we have a lot of trigger-happy leaders across the world, and because they are trigger-happy, they don’t care”. He went further, “we are in big trouble….I see World War 111 coming and it’s going to be terrible”.
I decided to speak into this because the Senator was not trying to tell us what God revealed to him. At least he is neither a pastor nor a prophet and he wasn’t speaking as one. He was speaking rather as an analyst, a political decanter and one who has the ability to read the thermometer of the global environment. And on that basis precisely, I feel confident to interrogate his views, see whatever possible take-aways are available and of course make an input into the debate.
In the social media, even among the mainstream media, (though at a much lesser degree), there is this prevalence of thought and apprehension about a possible World War 111. This country will attack this country, the other country will attack the other, and the fire will engulf all of us and the world will burn. What’s more, some people declare this prospective Armageddon with a degree of certainty. And many believe them.
World War and indeed war in general is not a picnic. There are certain factors that determine the scope of a war, whether it be global, continental, regional, sub-regional or local. For a war to qualify into the category of World War, such as happened from 1914 – 1919 (First World War) and 1938 – 1945 (Second World War), certain combustible factors must be present. These include the scope of the conflict across the world; the number of nations involved; and the impact or consequences it has in changing the existing global environment and creating a New World Order.
Since 1945, the world have witnessed many conflicts, varying in degrees, dimensions and intensity. These include the Cold War, International Conflicts, Regional Wars, Civil Wars, Guerilla Wars and Insurgencies and other forms of militarization.. These violent activities, cutting across Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, have taken an estimate of 40 to 50 million lives.
From my reading of the international environment at the moment, I do not see a world war coming. Not even a remote possibility. Yes, the global system is dangerously militarized, leaders are increasingly turning into cowboys as the dear Senator lamented, arms proliferation has become a norm, while an arms-race appears to be going on at both domestic and cross-border levels. But these panic situations, troubling as they are, does not create a world war scenario.
Russia and Ukraine will continue to kill each other. Israel and Iran will sort themselves out, with or without American involvement. There are nearly fifty wars going on around the world today, but the two mentioned above are thought to have the greatest potential to engulf humanity in a world war. It will not happen. And the reasons are simple.
The last World War ended in 1945. Since then, the world have undergone several fundamental changes and shifting paradigms – from Bi-polarity (1945) to Uni-polarity (1991) and now moving back to Multi-polarity. The hegemons have increased once again and each understands the capability and temperament of the other. There are certain undefined, unstated yet, inallienable boundaries which each must respect and non must cross.
They argue that China, Russia, Pakistan, Turkiye, North Korea are friends of Iran, and most importantly, they are nuclear powers. That argument is right. They argue further that these friends cannot sit by and allow Iran become over-whelmed, and that when push comes to shove, they will come in to defend Iran. Here they are wrong. This is absolute fallacy… Some say if America joins the war, China and Russia will be duty bound to come in. And I ask – what duty?
In international relations, there are rights and duties, obligations and responsibilities. The relationship that exist between Israel and the United States does not exist anywhere else. And no such relationship exist between any other allies in the whole world. The length America will go to support Israel is so comprehensive that no one, none of those friends mentioned above, can factor just a fraction of it for Iran.
China does not take unnecessary risks and China is not yet ready to confront the United States. When China is ready, or thinks it is ready, China will confront the US on account of Taiwan. Not Iran. Russia is impeded by two factors. One is the ongoing war with Ukraine and the other factor is that it doesn’t have much stake in Iran. Iran has aided its war efforts with Ukraine and Russian scientists are helping Iran in its nuclear program, but there are limits. So, besides diplomatic condemnations and voting against Israel in the United Nations Security Council, Russia and China will do little else for Iran.
Nations go to war to defend vital national interests, confront existential threats to sovereignty or defend national honor. Nations no longer fight wars just to be counted as “good friends”. lt happened in the past but that era has long passed. It succeeded in 1914, not just because Germany wanted to make Austria feel good, but because Europe was tired of peace. And the world never forgot that “feel good” arrangement as the consequences have continued to reverberate through the pages of history.
And what about the Arab neighbors. Religion is a binding link but the Arab countries are not in genuine sympathy with Iran. They see Iranian leaders since the 1979 Revolution, as yearning for a return to the old glory of the Persian empire and, no neighbor wants to deliberately assist a neighbor with imperial designs. They will make robust statements in public, scream their frustrations on the floor of the United Nations General Assembly, but privately, they are having themselves a good laugh. And yes, the Islamic Republic have not done much to endear itself to its neighbours.
So, the question to ponder is – “who is going to fight who in this impending World War 111?” It is difficult to visualize the scenario. What I see is Israel fighting to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program. Already, within 7 days of intensive strikes and bombings, the damage inflicted so far has set the program back at least 10 years. If America agrees to send its GBU 57 to eliminate Fordo, (Iran’s uranium enrichment center) the job will be more comprehensive and permanent. This is because in the whole world, only America has the bunker bursting bomb that can pierce steel and concrete to get to this special nuclear facility buried 200 feet under the rock.
If that goal is accomplished, the Israelis can go home and sleep with their two eyes closed. As for the mullahs in Teheran, they will have to fight ever more viciously to retain their hold on power. Netanyahu have spoken tantalizingly about “regime change”, but ultimately, that would be a matter for the Iranian people to deal with. The Supreme Leader is an old man. He is already at the Departure Lounge. Granted he has a river of blood in his hands – Jewish, Arab and Iranian blood, taking him out, in my view, is unnecessary. Why make a martyr out of him when he will soon meet face to face with his maker.
Sooner, rather than later, this war will be over, and whatever happens, the Middle East will not be the same again. Iran has prepared for this war for the past 30 years but it took Israel a few hours to inflict unquantifable damage on Iranian military and intelligence resources, with the High Command surgically decimated. In less than three days of fighting, the Israeli airforce took control of the vast Iranian airspace. Comparatively, Iran is the giant while Israel is the underdog. Looking at the population, Israel has 9.5m people while Iran has 90.6m. In terms of landmass, Israel is 22,070 square kilometers while Iran is 1,648,195 square kilometers. In other words, Iran is 75 times the size of Israel. In terms of military personnel, Israeli military has 170,000 active personnel while Iran has 610,000.
In conclusion, I want to say that Israel has worked hard to earn the reputation it enjoys among both friends and foes alike. For America, Israel is a capable friend, capable of great feats even in the face of daunting odds. So, America can stick its neck out for Israel at all times and in every situation. Does Iran have such a friend anywhere? The answer is “No”. Iran is largely seen as a talker but not a doer – the dog that barks but does not bite. By taking out Iran’s proxies one after the other since September last year, from Hamas to Hezbollah, Houthis and Islamic Jihad, etc, Israel stripped Iran naked and exposed, ready for the trashing of a lifetime.
The whipping has been merciless and the nation of Iran will not be the same again . Within the next few days or weeks, Iran will be completely routed and peace will return to the Middle East. And hopefully, this flippant talk about World War 3 will be put to rest. At least for the time being.