Tag: 2020

  • See 2 nations to be the first to enter 2020

    See 2 nations to be the first to enter 2020

    The tropical islands of Samoa and Kiribati will be the first in the world to welcome 2020 as they are located just west of the International Date Line which runs down the middle of the Pacific Ocean.

    Fireworks to welcome in the new decade will explode over the Samoan capital Apia for locals and tourists who have timed their visit to be ahead of everyone else on the planet to enter the New Year.

    In 2011 Samoa took a leap into the future by shifting its time zone west of the International Date Line in a bid to boost tourism, beating New Zealand into the New Year by just one hour.

    The island nation’s celebrations are expected to be somewhat muted by the tragic measles outbreak which killed 81 people since October.

    A six-week state of emergency was only lifted by the Samoan Ministry of Health on Saturday after successful vaccinations drive reached nearly all the approximately 200,000 people living on the island.

    American Samoa, just 220 kilometres to the east of Samoa on the other side of the International Date Line, will be the last to ring in 2020.

    American Samoa is 25 hours ahead of Samoa as Samoa puts clocks forward one hour for summer, while American Samoa does not.

  • (TNG Analysis): Nigerian judiciary showcased an all time low in 2019 – Lawyers

    (TNG Analysis): Nigerian judiciary showcased an all time low in 2019 – Lawyers

    …Onnoghen’s removal was a bad signal
    …it was a sad and gloomy judicial calendar for Nigerians
    ….Judiciary and the ‘Hurdle Race’ of Safeguarding Rule of Law in 2020 after a challenging 2019
    Emmanuel Bagudu, Abuja
    No doubt the year 2019 was very challenging for the Nigerian Judiciary. The third Arm of Government during the year had to battle to resist impositions from the Executive who on different occasions depleted the Rule of Law at the expense of effective Justice delivery.
    From the removal from office of the former CJN Walter Onnoghen without due process to obvious habitual defiance to court orders by the executive leading to abuse of human rights; the executive indeed gave the judiciary a very high hurdle to cross to ensure that Justice delivery in the country is not compromised in the year 2019. One among many instances was the unlawful detention of the leader of the “revolution now” Omoleye SOWORE whose ordeal caused a national outcry from the civil society Communities whose cries reached the Nigerian international Community. It will be recalled that Sowere’s continued unlawful detention provoked trial as Judge Ijeoma Ojukwu joined the records of the few Judges that stood for rule of law by threatening the Executive.
    “Take notice that unless you obey the direction contained in the order of the Federal High Court of Justice, Abuja made on the 6 November 2019, which ordered you to release the Defendants/Applicants in Suit No; FHC/ABJ/CR/235/2019 forthwith, you will be guilty of contempt of court and will be liable to be committed to prison….” Trial Judge Ijeoma Ojukwu threatens Director-General of the State Security Service Yusuf Bichi. That happened in November. It was then adjudged to be one of the most courageous move by a sitting judge to safeguard the Rule of Law.
    This resistance of incursion into the Justice system by the Executive which Justice Ojukwu did if emulated on different occasions by other Judges will increase the credibility of the Judiciary in the year 2020.
    This is not to say that the Judiciary knows it all. Lessons must be learned from some abnormalities that happened in 2019.
    The controversial exit of the former Chief Justice of Nigeria CJN Walter Onnoghen made the list of abnormalities in the Judiciary. The National Judicial Council (NJC) was not given the room to try Onnoghen on Allegations of Corruption before he was given the boots by President Mohammadu Buhari and neither did the NJC resisted such abnormality.
    One Dennis Aghanya petitioned the embattled former CJN for not properly declaring his assets as required by the law. Onnoghen’s suspension followed an order by the Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT) where he was arraigned in January 2019.
    The former CJN eventually resigned from office later in April 2019 after he was convicted by CCT, albeit, he was billed to vacate office in December 2022 when he would clock 70. Though this caused a lot of public outcry, the Judiciary continued its proceedings with high profile Post-election litigations in hundreds still counting in various courts. The Judiciary tried to resist the temptation of carrying over post-election cases to 2020.
    The biggest of them all which caused alot of tension in the country was resolved in October when the Chief Justice of Nigeria laid to rest all anxieties in the Presidential Election Petition filed by the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) seeking the nullifaction of the Election of Muhammadu Buhari as President of Nigeria. The Supreme Court ruled in favour of President Buhari. Other appeals from governorship elections were also resolved by the Apex court with likes of Nasir Elrufai of Kaduna state and Abdullahi Ganduje of Kano State and a host of others being declared legally elected.
    Moving forward, the year 2020 will be very interesting. The industrial Court of Nigeria won’t be free as usual, Labour related cases are expected to throng the industrial Court especially now that issues of Minimum wage is on the front burner.
    The executive will not calm down in its quest for credibility and so will engage anyone that crosses its way in a legal feud. The year 2020 will be just three years to the General elections and it’s expected that gaining prominence and winning the heart of the people will be the gimmicks of politicians especially those in Government. This will make the courts busy. A lot of hurdles are being projected in 2020. Judges must resist intimidation, bribery, and blackmail from politicians for the interest of the sanctity of the Rule of Law.
    Ongoing and incoming high profile cases should not threaten Judges. Already a Judge of the Federal High Court Abuja Ahmed Mohammed had withdrawn from being adjudicator in the case of alleged treason between the Federal Goverment and leader of the Revolution Now movement Omoyele Sowore. This according to the judge was because of allegations of bais coming from the defendants. This can be prevented if counsel play according to the rules of the game. Lawyers in both private and public practice have a role to play in helping the Judiciary succeed in 2020.
    They must be proactive serving their judicial processes, justice delayed is justice denied. There should be a massive improvement in the pace of Justice delivery in 2020. Corruption must be resisted as well. These and many more professional practice in the bar and bench will give the Judiciary in 2020 a face lift.
    In conclusion here are the views of some lawyers.
    “The Nigerian Judiciary in 2019 reached an all time low, it was a dim and dark phase that history will remember and several severe questions shall be asked of the political actors, especially those who lurked around the corridors of powers, who quickly betrayed their professional and calling for political and maybe pecuniary considerations. Despite this dim and bleak introductions, there were several reasons to smile and be proud of, the Nigerian spirit of resilience forbids and prevents us to wallow needlessly in the dark, there have been several positive steps and bold decisions reached in 2019, I shall spend the next few paragraphs highlighting the highs and lows of the Nigerian Judiciary on 2019.
    With the enactment of the Federal High Court Rules 2019, the Judiciary had taken steps to bring the federal high courts up to date in terms of filling penalties, which will in turn produce speedy and expeditious attendance to civil matter this is indeed a step worthy of commendation. Another incident worthy of mention is the supreme courts ruling in Abdullahi V Adetutu in 2019, that has effectively overruled her self in the earlier case of Benjamin V Kailo. As it stands, the issues as it relates to registration of title has been judicially caged having returned back to the earlier position. I must also commend several swift decisions across this nation as far as election petition were concerned. And even in criminal matters.
    However, I will say overall it was a sad, dark and gloomy year in our Judicial calendar, one that posterity will call all of us to answer. Let’s be clear, as a nation one of our greatest strength yet greatest bane, is our short memory, and swiftness to jump on to the next big story, nothing last in our mind for that long, as Josphine Anenih, once stated, Nigerians suffer from Political Amnesia.
    The Suspension of the Chief Justice of Nigeria by the president is a scar that would last longer and would certainly outlive the this current dispensation, regardless of where one stands in the debate, or political affiliation, a wrong so deep and unfathomable could never have gone by without the active connivance of those close to the president with legal background. Our country is rooted in separation of powers, whereas, the president heads the executive, he has no powers or limits to dabble into the realm of the judiciary, how can you undo what you cannot do? The president may only Appoint the CJN , if such is person is recommended by the National Judical council, and that appointment cannot stand until and unless the senate confirms that person, therefore the CJN does not serve at the pleasure of the president, how then can a president suspend the CJN. Yet we the people allowed this executive waywardness to sail through. Indeed the president has all the powers to investigate and even arrest the CJN, and a magistrate can even convict such a person of his crimes are proven, but for the president to suspend or dismiss, he use the judiciary to harass a sitting CJN, the message he clearly wanted to pass has been passed.
    How can the Judiciary be independent when a judge can be unceremoniously removed? Even if the president had the best intention, his action has placed a stain in the judiciary that would take concerted effort to repair.
    Assuming without conceding that dismissed (not resigned) CJN was of a questionable character, the message that even lower judges of unimpeachable character would ask themselves whenever they have a reason to disagree with the executive is whether they would not be subjected to public ridicule like the last CJN was. Like stated earlier, regardless of the president’s best intentions and motive, an ugly precedent had been set, a Pharaoh who knows not Joseph, could use this precedent for his own mischief and evil; and that’s the problem with ‘gree die politics’. Lastly, I fear that the bench and even the bar, have fallen into a new low of ethno-religious divide, lawyers first reason as Muslims/Christians southerners/Northerners before people of noble calling, this is extremely disturbing. The judiciary is a glue in this nation, we must pay extra attention to the welfare and well being of legal practitioners in the bench and bar.
    Lastly, I am an unrepentant optimist, I see greater days ahead of us, I see a more united an committed bench and bar in 2020, I see a greater, happier more united Nigeria.
    By Osigwe Ahmed Momoh; A Legal Practitioner writes from Abuja.
    “The performance of the Judiciary in 2019 is quite commendable, however it will go without controversy and recommendations in the roles it plays on burning issues in our Nationals socio-political events that occurred in the year in review.
    While steps are been taken for the fight for the independence of the Judiciary, there is need to carry out an inhouse cleaning of the Men behind the Masquerades in the hallowed temple of Justice.
    A quick reminder of events, to the average Nigerian is that the law of the land is measured in two ways which are implemented or followed based on the class of individuals involved.
    A recall of the events in 2019, the removal of the Hon. Justice Walter Onnoghen as the Chief Justice of Nigeria with the issuance of restraining orders by 3 Courts of Coordinate jurisdictions and subsequent renewal of such orders.
    The role played by the Code of Conduct Tribunals in the said saga are issues that calls for Academic review and possible legislation to forstall the recurrence.
    The style and measurement used granting interim orders as earlier stated varies in my view which depend on the parties involved.
    In 2019, the lower bench, that is the Magistrate, Customary and Sharia Courts some are majorly an appendage of the Executives particularly the Nigerian Police Force, while attention are channeled to the Courts of records, the lower Bench need human Capital development.
    The judicial crisis that caught attention of Nigerians and the comity of Nations is the Sowore’s issue that A Court Order DSS for the detention of a citizen, the said Order was obeyed by DSS with Alacrity, thereafter, the same Court Ordered the same DSS for the release of the same Citizen, the same DSS outrightly disregarded the same Court Order to release the same Citizen without even an Appeal filed.
    Furthermore, the same DSS approached the same Court to arraign the same Citizen before the same Court and the same Court entertained the same DSS and remanded the same Citizen in custody of the same DSS.
    So therefore Comrades, going by the above circumstances, it is clear that what we should be fighting for is not the INDEPENDENCE of JUDICIARY as popularly being canvassed but what we should be fighting for is that the faces behind the Masquerades in the Hollow Temple of Justice to carefully understand the Jurisprudence of The Rule of Law, The Law of Rule and The Doctrine of Seperation of Power.
    We hope and expect that come 2020, the Judiciary will live upto expectation, not only seeking for the independence of the Judiciary but also seen practicing it through their judgments and actions towards the non compliance of the Judgment, because they are the custodians of our Nation’s Peace.
    Tohwo Oseruvwoja Esq.”
    ” This 2019, the judiciary was once more disregarded and desecrated by the government and its agencies. This shows the complete disregard for the rule of law and as a result a diminishing hope for the common man. I hope that in 2020, the judiciary will purge itself of elements (corruption, nepotism, fraternizing with political leaders etc) that make room for incessant disregard.
    Augusta Yaakugh Esq”
  • LCCI releases economic outlook for 2020

    The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has projected a high cost of doing business in 2020.

    Its Director-General, Dr Muda Yusuf, made the projection in the LCCI 2019 Economic Review and Outlook For 2020 made available to newsmen on Thursday in Lagos.

    He attributed the projected high cost to poor infrastructure, multiplicity of levies, excessive regulations, among others.

    Yusuf said that while the nation may have recorded improvement on the Ease of Doing Business Ranking due to some recent policy measures, realities on ground would continue to differ if the highlighted challenges were not properly addressed.

    He said that the performance of the trade sector in 2020 would be shaped by the direction of government policies.

    Yusuf anticipated that the manufacturing sector would continue to benefit from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s aggressive credit push.

    He, however, predicted that competition between foreign and local producers would fade on prolonged closure of land borders.

    The director general said that headline inflation was expected to trend higher in 2020.

    He said this would be driven by implementation of new minimum wage and continued closure of the land border.

    Yusuf said that higher Value Added Tax rate of 7.5 per cent and the early disbursement of funds for budget implementation following the return of the budget cycle would also be contributory factors.

    “We expect economic growth to remain subdued at around 2 per cent by 2020 as consumer demand, as well as private sector investment, will most likely remain weak.

    “We are of the view that failure by government to fix structural constraints with regards to fixing power challenges and rehabilitating deplorable road networks, will perpetuate the poor productivity and performance of the sector.

    “In our opinion, continued protectionist measures of government will most likely limit growth in 2020.

    “Elsewhere, the level of the country’s engagement in Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) scheduled to kick-off July 1, 2020, will also impact the performance of trade sector.

    “As a sustainable solution, it is imperative to fix the fundamental issues of high cost of domestic production, the prohibitive cost of cargo clearing at the Lagos ports, prohibitive import tariffs, high cost of logistics within the economy, and border policy capacity,” he said.

    On the performance of the agricultural sector, the Director-General projected improved credit flow to agriculture on the back of proposed increase in deposit money banks’ loan to deposit ratio to 70 per cent.

    Yusuf expressed the view that prolonging closure of the land borders would further add impetus to agricultural output in 2020.

    “The monetary value of agriculture output has been on the upward trajectory, rising 40 per cent quarter-on-quarter to N5.41 trillion between July and September from N3.86 trillion between April and June, compared with N3.60 trillion in the first quarter.

    “The CBN, like it did in 2019, will maintain status quo by not relenting in supporting the sector with much-needed funds in ensuring that the wide gap between local demand for food and supply is bridged.

    “However, risk factors to our prognosis include security challenges in the North-east zone; a major food producing region in the country, resurgence in herders-farmers clash in the North-central region.

    “Overall, we expect the sector to sustain its upward growth trajectory in 2020,” he stated.

  • Six great ways to end year 2019

    Six great ways to end year 2019

    It’s the end of another year, and time to reflect on everything that happened in your life in 2019. This moment gives you a dual opportunity to review the outgoing year while planning for a new entrance into the new year [2020]. Did you achieve your personal, professional or study goals?

    Whether you did or didn’t, here are six great ways carefully picked by TheNewsGuru(TNG) to give your year the perfect ending. Say 2019 goodbye bu doing these things and greet 2020 with a huge smile.

    1. RECOGNISE WHAT YOU ACHIEVED

    You probably had a lot going on in your life in 2019. After a long year, it’s easy to forget the positive things you achieved. Take some time to write down all that you accomplished in 2019, no matter how big or small these achievements were. You’ll probably be surprised to find that the list is a lot longer than you thought!

    2. THANK THOSE WHO MADE 2019 WORTHWHILE

    This is the biggest move to make if you aim to win big come year 2020. While some people may have had a negative influence on your life, there were undoubtedly also a number of people who made a positive impact on you. Think about everyone who helped you through difficult times, supported you in reaching your goals, or simply made you happier. Make sure that you let these people know how much you appreciate them, whether it be with a text message, a phone call, an email or telling them in person.

    3. IDENTIFY THE THINGS YOU DIDN’T ACHIEVE

    Now that you know what you’ve achieved, it’s time to identify the areas where things didn’t quite go as planned. Write down the things you didn’t achieve, and think about what stood in your way. Ask yourself what you can do to achieve these goals in the new year, so that you can add them to your list of accomplishments in 2020.

    4. MAKE SOME BIG DECISIONS NOW

    You may be stuck in a job you hate, or in a relationship that isn’t working. It’s better to take action now than to bring these negative things into the new year. Resigning from your job or ending a relationship can be difficult, but having the burden off your shoulders will allow you to focus more clearly on the year ahead.

    5. DO A GOOD DEED

    The festive season should be one of celebration but, for many people, this isn’t the case. Consider doing a good deed to make the end of the year brighter for someone less fortunate than yourself. You could look around the house for any clothing, books or toys that you can donate to a worthy cause, or get involved in any charity events taking place in your area.

    6. MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR THE NEW YEAR

    It’s important to ensure that all your plans are in place before the new year begins, so that you can be ready to follow through on them. Register for the college course you’ve been wanting to study; sign the lease on that new flat you want to move into; or get a head start on some of your New Year’s resolutions. Do whatever you think is necessary for you to feel prepared for 2020.

    7. RELAX AND ENJOY YOURSELF!

    It’s time to relax and spend quality time with your friends and family. Put the negatives of the past year behind you, and give yourself a well-deserved break! It’s important to feel completely refreshed and recharged as you begin the new year.

     

  • Gov. Wike presents N530bn budget for 2020

    Gov. Wike presents N530bn budget for 2020

    Gov. Nyesom Wike of Rivers on Tuesday presented a budget of N530 billion for 2020 to the state House of Assembly.

    During the presentation, the governor said the budget tagged “Budget of Reassurance” would focus on driving infrastructure and speeding growth process in the state.

    Wike said budget was made up of N374 billion capital expenditure and N156 billion recurrent expenditure.

    “The state budget for 2020 is over N50 billion higher than the 2019 figure and it is expected to generate more growth in the economy,’’ he said.

    Responding, the Speaker, Mr Ikunyi-Awaji Ibani commended the governor on his assurance to focus more on developing the state economy.

    Ibani promised continued cordiality with the executive in moving the state forward.

  • Lagosians to start obtaining licence to drill borehole from 2020

    Lagosians to start obtaining licence to drill borehole from 2020

    Lagos State government has said by the first quarter of next year, it would begin to issue licences and permits before any borehole is drilled for water in any part of the state.

    Executive Secretary of the Lagos State Water Regulatory Commission, Mrs Funke Femi Adepoju, while addressing stakeholders at a meeting, explained that this move was to safeguard residents of the metropolis.

    The meeting was attended by members of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Nigeria Employers Consultative Association (NECA), Financial Institutions, Association of Table Water Producers (ATWAP) and Association of Water Well Drilling Rig Owners Operators among others.

    According to her, the exercise, which is to be launched by Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, is to regulate the process of water abstraction in the state.

    Mrs Adepoju affirmed that licensing was a significant process in the regulation of any industry as the commission was determined to ensure its availability and sustainability to prevent the effect on unregulated water abstraction.

    “What is paramount to government is how abstraction affects us as a people not just today but the future with emphases on pollution, contamination of water bodies, saline filtration into the system, over-abstraction and unregulated abstraction,” she stated.

    While assuring that only registered companies captured in data will be issued a 2-year renewable license with unique and personalized number, the Executive Secretary explained that the commission was not established for a punitive purpose, but rather to establish standard in the water extraction industry in order to ensure that the health and safety of citizens are not compromised.

    According to her, the essence of the engagement was to improve the relationship between stakeholders and government by developing ways to sanitize the industry, stressing that the agency has acquired mobile water test kits which are to be used in testing samples during operation and that approval for the acquisition of a standard laboratory for water testing is on the way.

  • INEC sets January 25, 2020 for 28 rerun elections

    INEC sets January 25, 2020 for 28 rerun elections

    The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has fixed January 25, 2020, for the conduct of the 28 outstanding court-ordered rerun elections across in the country.

    INEC announced its decision in a statement signed by its National Commissioner and Chairman, Information and Voter Education Committee, Barr. Festus Okoye, on Thursday.

    According to the statement, the election petition tribunals that were constituted to try cases that arose from the 2019 general elections received a total of 807 post-election petitions, out of which 582 were dismissed and 183 withdrawn by petitioners.

    It further explained that of the remaining 42 cases, 30 were decided for rerun and 12 ordered to give certificates of return. Of the 30 rerun cases, two; Kogi West Senatorial District supplementary rerun election and Ajaokuta Federal Constituency rerun election, had been conducted on November 30.

    “There are, so far, 30 such court-ordered rerun and supplementary rerun elections. Two of these namely, the rerun election for the Ajaokuta Federal Constituency and the supplementary rerun election for the Kogi West Senatorial District were conducted on 30th November 2019.

    “Consequently, there are 28 court-ordered elections still outstanding which are distributed across 12 States of the Federation. The break down comprises one Senatorial District out of 109, 12 Federal Constituencies out of 360 and 15 State Assembly Constituencies out of 991.

  • Conduct national census before end of 2020,Reps tells FG

    The House of Representatives has asked the federal government to immediately put in motion, preparation for the conduct of a comprehensive national census before the end of 2020, saying the exercise was long overdue.

    The House said it is unfortunate that Nigeria has relied solely on projections by foreign bodies on her population figures for planning, adding that it was extremely important to conduct a new national census.

    Moving the motion on the need to commence the exercise, Hon. Ademorin Kuye (APC, Lagos) described population census as an important national assignment because its figures are critical for national planning.

    He said the lack of accurate data on the population of Nigeria has been affecting national planning and development at all levels and therefore asked the House to compel the National Population Commission to come up with a comprehensive timetable for the conduct of the census.

    He explained that it was because of its importance that countries across the world carry out this exercise once every ten years, adding that without a census, and an accurate data of the number of people in a given country, no government can provide adequately for its citizens.

    He said at the moment, the country’s population is predicated on projected figures provided by foreign organizations like the United Nations, thus making planning extremely difficult in the absence of a population census which the National Population Commission (NPC) would have conducted every ten (10) years, as is obtainable in other countries.

    He said further that since the first census was held in Lagos in 1866, there had been a trend towards better planned and more reliable census exercises as subsequent census exercises, adding however that the 1952/1953 census was the first modern, national and carefully planned census in the country and the outcome was generally accepted.

    Hon Kuye expressed concern that the last national census was conducted in 2006, adding that until it becomes mandatory to conduct census at given intervals like elections, Nigeria will continue to have delays in organizing national census.

    He disclosed that it has become extremely important to conduct another census to ascertain the country’s actual population in order to do away with projected figures, a development that will enable the Government to plan better for the citizens.

    He expressed concern that if adequate measures are not put in place to ensure that population census is conducted periodically, at least once every 10 years, Nigeria will be lacking in the statistical data of its citizens either politically or economically.

    Hon. Kuye said further that in 2016, the World Bank estimated Nigeria’s population at 186 million, while the United Nations put the figures at 180 million with a growth rate of 2.7.

    He said that in 2018, the National Assembly called for the postponement of the proposed 2018 population census on the ground that such an exercise, coming on the eve of the 2019 general elections, could end in chaos.

    He acknowledged the fact that Nigeria was a dynamic economy with a large population which is expected to double in the next two decades, adding that the national census was therefore a pivotal and necessary tool for the growth of any emerging society.

    The House resolved to ask the Federal Government to put an end to the uncertainties surrounding the nation’s actual population by putting in place necessary machineries to conduct the national census not later than 2020.

  • Trouble ahead for Nigeria: Oil prices could fall to $40 in 2020

    Oil prices forecast to fall southwards to about $40 per barrel in 2020, without output cuts.

    It’s bad news for Nigeria and other OPEC countries and Russia as they meet in Vienna on 5 December to discuss output levels for next year.

    The market forecast for next year is grim: unless OPEC countries agree to cuts in output, prices could go southwards to as low as $40. Making the forecast is Rystad Energy as it predicts a substantial build of global crude stocks and a corresponding drop in oil prices, if output cuts are not agreed.

    “We have a clear message to the OPEC+ countries: A ‘roll-over’ of the current production agreement is not enough to preserve a balanced market and ensure a stable oil price environment in 2020,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, head of oil market research at Rystad Energy.

    “The outlook will be bleak if OPEC+ fails to agree on additional cuts.”

    And it also spells bad for Nigeria if prices fall below $57, the benchmark for the 2020 budget. Facing severe cash-crunch, Nigeria is betting on oil income flow to implement the budget of N10.3trillion($28billion).

    According to Rystad Energy’s estimates, the global oil market will be fundamentally oversupplied to the tune of 0.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of 2020.

    Empirical evidence has demonstrated that a 1 million bpd surplus of oil can be expected to cause an oil price decline of around 5% per month, implying a potential drop of 30% over six months.

    “If OPEC and Russia don’t extend and deepen their cuts, we could see Brent Blend dip to the $40s next year for a shorter period,” Tonhaugen said.

    “In order to ensure a balanced market, our research indicates that OPEC would need to reduce crude production to 28.9 million bpd – a drop of 0.8 million bpd from the level seen in the fourth quarter of 2019-levels – given our forecast for demand, non-OPEC supply and the impact of new IMO 2020 regulations on global crude runs,” Tonhaugen added.

    “Despite decent cut compliance from the group as a whole and large involuntary declines in Iran and Venezuela this year, OPEC’s current crude production of about 29.7 million bpd is far above the ‘call’ for 2020. Alas, without deeper cuts taking effect in January 2020, large global implied stock builds are on the cards,” Tonhaugen remarked.

    Rystad Energy sees three alternative OPEC+ decision scenarios:

    **Base case: Extension of current production cuts to June 2020. Global oil market will be oversupplied to the tune of 1.2 million bpd in 2020. Significant oil price correction, possibly down to the low $40s for a short period, is likely.

    **Deeper cuts: Additional cut of 0.75 million bpd on top of the 0.3 million bpd in the extension scenario would reduce the supply overhang and ensure stable prices.

    **No deal/market share war: A ramp-up to maximum production capacity in all countries could have devastating effects. With potential stock builds of 2.3 million bpd, oil prices could fall below $30/bbl – lower than during the previous lows of 2016. Such a scenario would be devastating for the forward curve structure as potential stock builds would be larger than what we have observed historically

    *Adapted from a report by oilprice.com

  • Fuel subsidy to gulp N450bn in 2020 – FG

    Fuel subsidy to gulp N450bn in 2020 – FG

    Fuel subsidy will gulp N450 billion in 2020, Finance, Budget and National Planning Minister Zainab Ahmed, said on Monday, as she gave a breakdown of the budget, now under consideration by the National Assembly.

    Ahmed avoided the lexical trap of subsidy, but instead called the cost ‘under-recovery’.

    Both the IMF and the World Bank and some local economic experts had asked Nigeria to stop subsidising petrol consumption and instead spend the money on infrastructure and other social services.

    This year, the total vote for works is N165 billion, about a third of the subsidy cost. Total vote for education is also N165billion, while housing will get N90billion, one-fifth of what the subsidy will consume.

    Ahmed said the subsidy is called ‘under-recovery’ because it was the cost of operation of the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC).

    “We have a provision for under-recovery of PMS in the sum of N450 billion. If you look at the Budget office website, it is in the fiscal framework, which is an annexure to the budget.”

    President Muhammadu Buhari had on Tuesday, presented a budget proposal of N10.33 trillion to a joint session of the National Assembly.

    He put the Federal Government’s estimated revenue in 2020 at N8.155 trillion, comprising oil revenue of N2.64 trillion, non-oil tax revenues of N1.81 trillion and other revenue of N3.7 trillion.

    Other estimates are N556.7 billion for statutory transfers, N2.45 trillion for debt servicing and provision of N296 billion as sinking fund.

    The 2020 budget is based on an oil production estimate of 2.18 million barrels per day, oil price benchmark of 57 dollars per barrel and an exchange rate of N305 to a dollar.

    Ahmed said that recurrent (non-debt) spending was expected to rise by 11.28 per cent, from N4.39 trillion in 2019 to N4.88 trillion in 2020.

    This, she said, would reflect in salaries and pensions, including provisions for implementation of the new minimum wage.

    Ahmed said that the overall budget deficit of N2.17 trillion represents 1.52 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and N1.64 trillion of it would be funded by both domestic and external borrowing.

    According to her, the external sources will provide N850 billion, while domestic sources will provide N744.99 billion.

    Citing the top 12 Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) capital allocations, she said the Ministry of Works and Housing was allocated N259.2 billion, Ministry of Power N127.67 billion, Ministry of Transportation N123.07 billion, Ministry of Education (including Universal Basic Education Commission) N162.74 billion.

    Others are Ministry of Defence N99.87 billion, Ministry of Health N90.98 billion, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development N79.79 billion and Ministry of Water Resources N78.34 billion.

    Some others are: Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development N45.45 billion, Ministry of Aviation N53.85 billion, Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment N41.34 billion and Ministry of Science and Technology N37.55 billion.

    She, however, said that there were key expenditures captured in the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), but were not in the 2020 budget.

    “They are N61 billion for the Presidential Power Initiative, N1.22 trillion for federally funded projects in the oil and gas sector to be undertaken by NNPC on behalf of the federation.

    “Others are: N272 billion as transfers to Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETFUND) for infrastructure projects in tertiary institutions and N82.35 billion as transfer to Nigeria Sovereign Wealth Investment (NSIA) for Public Private Partnership/Presidential Infrastructure Development Fund (PIDF),” she said.

    For revenue, Ahmed said there were Strategic Revenue Growth Initiatives (SRGI) aimed at boosting revenue generation to meet targeted revenue to GDP ratio of 15 per cent.

    She said further that the SRGI would be implemented with increased vigour to improve revenue collection and expenditure management.

    She said that Nigeria must mobilise significant resources to invest in human capital development and critical infrastructure.

    “Some reforms will be tough but they must be done to look at the facts and be frank to ourselves.

    “However, we will engage the public sector in whatever we do, including any changes in taxes, with regards to rates or administration methods.”