By Godwin Etakibuebu
This page ended last week with introduction to the anticipated Principalities and Powers; with absolute dominion over the Nigerian political terrain, which Baba Adamawa [Atiku Abubakar] must overcome if his long trek to the presidency in 2019 would not be another big mirage. Our major responsibility today is to identify these Principalities and Powers, and try in evaluating the possibility of Atiku Abubakar overcoming them in his “voyage of discovery” to the villa.
Normally these principalities and powers ought to be having their siesta for now as 2019 seems to be too far to be debated, in the thought of our favoured Nobel Laureate; Wole Soyinka. He was quoted, a few days ago, as saying that it might be too early to delve into the politics of 2019 when much is yet to be accomplished in terms of achievable profits of governance for now. He was equally quoted as doubting the sanity of those who may want to nominate Muhammadu Buhari for the presidency contest in 2019, given the terrible health challenge the man is currently undergoing.
Wole Soyinka spoke very well but to the extent of displaying naivety about the modus operandi about Nigerian politicians. The man is too much concerned with his literary work to understand that in Nigeria, preparation for the next election [which is four years constitutionally] starts on the very day politicians are sworn into office.
Another thing he did not care to know is that every Nigerian politician is an accomplished magician. Being magician is the only reason why “talented” Nigerian politicians could nominate an incarcerated prisoner, serving in Agodi prison, to run for the office of the Senate of the federal Republic, won the election, sworn-in as a Senator, appointed as Chairman of a lucrative Committee of the floor of that hallow chamber and he would be signing resolutions of the Chamber while still in prison.
It was a feat that had played itself out before in the 6th Senate. Nobody should ask me for names. For verification, just check on those “first class” Senators from the South/West. If that was achieved without ado in the past, there is no reason why a higher version of such cannot be enacted between now and 2019. It is a feat that El Rufai; the Kaduna State Governor will perform with ease. For him [El Rufai], it does not matter anything if President Buhari is sick or not, it does not even matter if the President’s doctors sanction his participation in the rigour of political electioneering or not, it is a fate accompli for Buhari to run for the presidency in 2019, as long as the powerful deities from the north approve it.
His winning the race, that is if he runs, is also a foregone conclusion. Opinion of Mama Taraba [Aisha Alhassan] on this matter is not needed, not in the classroom of the BUHARISTS adequately being coordinated by those Hynes, Jackals, Tigers and what-have-you in the Lion’s animal kingdom. Lest l forget, the news is already out that the Kaduna State All Progressive Congress has nominated Muhammadu Buhari and El Rufai to run for the presidency and governorship [of Kaduna State] respectively. With this announcement, Wole Soyinka must have another opinion on the possibility of Buhari running for the presidency in 2019 or not. Let us move ahead with the discussion by categorizing the principalities and powers Atiku Abubakar and Mama Taraba are likely to confront on the road to Abuja.
Number one of such obstacles is former President Olusegun Obasanjo. Obasanjo is from Owu, Egba of Yoruba tribe in Nigeria. Within the Yoruba tribe itself, it is an accepted fact that the Owus never forgive [Owu ti n’ki dariji]. If this is a fact, Obasanjo will do everything possible for his former second-in-command never to get any closer to becoming the president of Nigeria. He said the other day that “I am still laughing” when somebody asked him about the chances of Atiku Abubakar gunning for the presidency. He may even want to laugh louder this time around about a likely failure of Baba Adamawa, though he is not God. I am of the opinion that Atiku knows this.
Number two may be Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the national leader of the APC. Though thoroughly “down-graded” by President Buhari and his “inner-room cabinet” in the management of the ruling Party [APC], Asiwaju Tinubu may still want to cast his lot for a “lively dog than a dead lion” for one or two reasons. If Buhari runs again, he is most likely to tag along with Professor Yemi Osibanjo [for now the Kaduna Mafia understands the calamity of rejecting the candidature of the erudite professor, who is not only representing Bola Tinubu, but most importantly, representing the Obafemi Awolowo’s dynasty of the Yoruba race].
The political acumen of Bola Tinubu [he is complete in political wizardry] would tell him to run with the “lively dog [Osibanjo] than a likely dead lion [Atiku]” and once such decision is taken, the whole of the South/West would vote Buhari back to power. If the truth must be told, there is not one politician that controls the politics of the South/West with such absolutism as Bola Tinubu does. The man understands the politics of stooping to conquer and he is ready to deploy it at any time.
Another reason why Bola Tinubu may not be too much at home with Atiku Abubakar for the contest of 2019 would be the fact that both came together through political exigency in 2011 when the latter [Atiku] defected from the People Democratic Party to pick the presidential candidature flag of the Action Congress [a political party Tinubu put together single-handedly]. That relationship, if we may recall, bred more suspicion and apathy than unity of understanding between the two politicians. Bola Tinubu may not have forgotten that era and it might not therefore foster any unifying relationship for a continuation of cordiality to be contemplated.
Number three on the line of obstacles for Mama Taraba and Baba Adamawa would be the People Democratic Party as an entity. It will be recall that as of the time Atiku Abubakar walked out of the Party [PDP] in 2014 [with what they called new-PDP] to form the APC, that would be his second time of decamping from the Party he helped to formed around 1998/1999. Yes, in politics; which is a game of manipulation and permutation, oddities sometimes can become the key to open the door of success but how much of confidence-building Atiku Abubakar’s “going and coming” would enjoy in the inner-circle of the PDP this time around remains much to be seen. It might not be too much of a palatable news for the “political predators” inside the PDP to accept Atiku back wholeheartedly [and offering him the opportunity to fly the presidential flag] without some cosmetic window dressing with the garments of deceit.
There are other obstacles awaiting Mama Taraba and Baba Adamawa on the route to Aso Rock in 2019. Let us meet here to conclude the evaluation next week, by the grace of God.
Godwin Etakibuebu, a veteran journalist, writes from Lagos.
