By Mideno Bayagbon
It is no news that Dr Ifeanyi Okowa, Governor of Delta state, is currently winding down his reign even as the race to succeed him gathers frenetic fervour.
With just 20 months left on the calendar before a new helmsman mounts the saddle to govern the state, a collage of people are traversing the state consulting and trying to sell themselves to the party leaders and indeed members of the party across the three senatorial zones as the fit and proper persons to take over from him.
It is indeed a crowded field. From the self important to the downright humble; from the truly serious, to jokers, wannabes who want to be able to boast in future that they were once gubernatorial aspirants.
For most, positioning as an aspirant is a means to an end: it is a bargaining chip for positions and recognition when the real candidate emerges.
There are also those stewing in self delusion, buoyed by their perceived self importance and huge ego.
There are of course those who are being egged on, fully deceived by some party “big men” who are using them as their meal tickets, knowing full well that the aspirants they are calling “your excellency” stand no chance in hell of making it.
But like most things Nigerian, this is the season they feather their nest on the stupidity of egomaniacs, duplicitous persons who see the exalted position of Governor as their road to instant billionaireship.
That so many people have thrown their hats into the ring is no big surprise.
Until now, the state, since the advent of the current democratic rule which began some 21 years ago, has been under the firm grip of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
The assumption among its members is that history will repeat itself and another member of the party will be sworn in on May 29, 2023 as governor of the state.
From close observations, however, there are three contending forces currently at play in the state. They are positioning themselves as the go to group, the dominant group to produce the new king of the manor.
These are the James Ibori political family, the Governor Ifeanyi Okowa emerging political group and the Senator James Manager/Tompolo Ijaw group.
Most of the candidates identify either openly or subtly with any of these political formations; except perhaps Olorogun Kenneth Gbagi who positions as non-aligned but is hoping that Governor Okowa will somehow gift him the candidacy of the party.
An X-ray of the chances of these groups will be made in a subsequent article.
What is, however, very obvious is the preponderance of candidates from Delta Central, home to the majority Urhobo ethnic group. In fact, apart from Senator James Manager, an Ijaw from Delta South, who is currently positioning to rock the seeming tight agreement in the Delta State PDP that the gubernatorial seat should be rotated among the three senatorial zones.
By the time Ifeanyi Okowa completes his tenure in 2023, the three senatorial zones, would each have taken a shot at ruling the state.
Ibori represented the Urhobo of Delta Central in kicking off the arrangement. Dr Emmanuel Uduaghan, an Itsekiri of Delta South, followed while Okowa of Delta North is completing the turn of his zone.
The expectation is that it is now the turn of Delta Central to present the PDP candidate for the office in 2023.
But Manager and his group say no.
With the threat potentials of militant Tompolo, (Chief Government Ekpemukpolo), the seeming active connivance of Governor Okowa, Manager has mobilised the Ijaw ethnic group, one of the three that constitute the Delta South senatorial zone, to challenge for the governorship seat against the ruling grain in the state PDP.
The four term senator, who like Kenneth Gbagi, is a foundation member of the party, on whose crest he was commissioner for works under the James Ibori foundation government between 1999-2003, and a senator thereafter till now, has decided to seize the opportunity of running for the office now because he might be considered too old, should he wait till the Urhobo ethnic group, whose turn it is by the perceived PDP rotation, to take their eight year turn now.
At over 60 years, Manager will be in his early 70s when it will be the turn of Delta South in 2031.
Maternally of the Isoko ethnic group, one of the three groups in Delta South, Manager is soldering on and supporters are said to be increasing in his camp daily.
Manager and his group position was given a shot in the arm when early this year, Governor Okowa, decided to ruffle the feathers of the party by publicly declaring that there is no agreement to rotate the governorship position among the three ethnic group.
This was greeted with anger and vitriol at his person with some even campaigning that he should be impeached to teach him a lesson.
Nevertheless, that was the signal the James Manager group needed to fire on.
Surprisingly, Manager is perceived today as one of the top contenders.
But those who hold the reins in the party caution: when we get to the bridge, we will cross it.
James Ibori, the main political godfather who until now ruled the roost without challenge has cautiously kept a sealed lip.
But his army of supporters are angered that one of the major beneficiaries of the group, Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, who rode seemingly on the wings of the James ibori political family to political relevance and position, could turn around, to be a turn coat and stab Ibori and the group in the back.
Okowa, some of Ibori’s inner team confess, was always going to turn coat in a quest to build his own political empire. He wants to be a man of his own, with his own grip on power in the state.
This, observers are already saying, is taking firm root as Okowa, has over the last six years built a formidable grassroots support base across the state. He has deftly used bread and butter politics to undermine the Ibori political structure in the state.
Understandably, even major beneficiaries like the one they call Ejele, (Michael Diden), have jumped on the Okowa train and is pushing the Okowa agenda full time. His case is understandable: he supports any government in power that empowers him. He was once a rabid supporter of Governors James Ibori and Emmanuel Uduaghan.
“We told Ibori this will happen but he never believed us”, they tell whoever cares to listen.
“Now see how Okowa is planning to supplant him.”
Watch out for Part II!!!
