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Tag: Dakuku Peterside

  • APC chieftain, Peterside urges Tinubu to intervene in Rivers crisis

    APC chieftain, Peterside urges Tinubu to intervene in Rivers crisis

    Dakuku Peterside, a chieftain of the All Progressive Congress has noted that President Bola Tinubu can’t fold his hands and allow Rivers State to go up in flames.

    Peterside noted via a statement  that the crisis in the state was a shameful state of anomie urging president Tinubu to intervene quickly.

    According to Peterside: “As a leader and stakeholder in the affairs of Rivers State who has personally invested a lot in the development of our dear state, I call on the President and Commander in Chief to intervene and save Rivers from going up in flames. Mr President should note that Rivers State is gradually sliding into total anarchy.

    “As a statesman, he cannot afford to fold his hands and watch the destruction of the state and institutions of democracy. Mr President, at this point, must place the interests of Rivers State and the people of Rivers State above every other consideration. We should be in favour of politics of good governance and inclusive development.”

    The rift between Governor Sim Fubara of Rivers State and his predecessor, Nyesom Wike, led to 27 members of the state House of Assembly defecting to the All Progressives Congress, APC.

  • The drum for electoral reforms – By Dakuku Peterside

    The drum for electoral reforms – By Dakuku Peterside

    John Dewey, an American philosopher of the 20th century, argued that “we do not learn from experience … we learn from reflecting on experience”. At the core of this statement is the critical role of reflection in the learning process. When we reflect and analyse past experiences, we gain insights, identify lessons learned from our mistakes, and integrate these insights into our lives to make better decisions in the future. In line with this sentiment, the call for electoral reforms is usually high after every election cycle. It has become a priority public commentary issue because of its linkage to the sustainability of democracy and quality of governance. Civil society, opposition politicians and international multilateral organisations are usually at the forefront. The 2023 election is no exception. The 2023 elections were held under what was considered one of the most responsive and innovative electoral acts since 1999, but it turned out to be one of the most contentious. The degree of contention signals that the quality of election management may have plummeted from our 2015 experience.

    Penultimate week, Yiaga Africa, in collaboration with the National Assembly, organised a Town Hall on Electoral Reforms in Abuja. The most critical challenge I see as we embark on the journey of another electoral reform is, given the level of political corruption prevalent in our system, how do we get the average enlightened citizen to believe that the pursuit of electoral reform is worth his time and that democracy has any value beyond periodic election for which he is not sure his vote will count? Sadly, we have attempted four electoral reforms or electoral acts from 2007 to 2022, but the quality of our elections is yet to keep pace  . Why did these electoral reforms not deliver? The reason is plausible. Like everything else in Nigeria, there is a wide gap between laws and the implementation of laws. We fail woefully at implementing laws put in place to make our elections free and fair. It is as if politicians and legal practitioners  actively look for loopholes to either circumvent the law or outrightly disregard it to achieve their electoral desire – which often is to win at all costs.

    After an extensive review of the last election, notes shared with me by the former election umpire, Prof.Attahiru Jega  and the brilliant suggestions made at the Yiaga Africa event, i have identified urgent issues to focus on as we march towards 2024/25  electoral reforms. We need to rethink our entire electoral process to make it fit for purpose. We must identify loopholes and block them altogether. The lacuna in the electoral process is our penchant towards making rules that, at face value, make sense but may not align with our current reality based on technology or our prevailing political attitude. This mismatch leads to unenforceable rules that open itself to judicial interpretation. I will articulate some of these issues thematically below.

    The first is relating to the use of technology in elections. We must remove the ambiguity evident in Section 64 of the EA22 and make electronic transmission of results mandatory from the next general elections in 2027, including uploading polling-unit level results and result sheets used at different levels, and invest in  the technology . This was a sticking point in the last election and created many legitimacy issues when handled poorly.

    The second relates to political parties and their candidates. The new Act should stipulate sanctions for failure to submit a register of party members not later than 30 days before the date of party primaries, congresses, or conventions concerning Section 77 (3), which the political parties have observed in the breach in the 2023 elections without penalty. It should proscribe cross-carpeting not only for members of the National Assembly but also for elected executives, governors, and Chairmen of LGAs. And empower INEC to prepare for elections to fill the vacancy once it has evidence of the Act of cross-carpeting. The provision that INEC can only fill such vacancies if they have been declared vacant by the Speakers (NA and SHAs) and Senate President is unrealistic as, in practice, they have failed to report such vacancies, as ‘de-campees’ invariably become members of their(Assembly  leaders)parties.

    Besides, instead of Sections 86 and 87, which place all the responsibility of monitoring party finances with INEC, given the prevailing tendency of parties and candidates to violate campaign finance limits, this responsibility should either be handled by a newly created agency (in the context of unbundling INEC) or given to an Inter-Agency Committee consisting of INEC, Security, and anti-corruption agencies. Although Sections 31 and 33 specify conditions regulating withdrawal of candidature and substitution, there is a need to place stringent requirements for candidate withdrawal and replacement to prevent abuse of this provision.

    The third is related to electoral dispute resolution and Judicial adjudication. Notwithstanding,provisions of Section 29(5), which allows aspirants who participated in primaries to pursue pre-election litigation, there is a need for the legislation to allow even candidates outside the political parties, as well as tax-paying citizens, to file suits against candidates who provide false information to INEC regarding their candidature. Although Sections 132(8) and (9) have given timelines within which the Tribunals and courts of appellate jurisdiction should deliver  verdicts, there is a need, particularly concerning elected executive positions, to ensure that all cases are resolved, and judgments made before the date of swearing-in other as found in Kenya and other African countries .

    The fourth relates to voters register  and the voting process. INEC must enhance the quality of the voter register/voter registration process. And the increasing phenomenon of vote buying and vote selling  needs to be explicitly proscribed, with stiff penalties provided. Section 121, which deals with bribery and conspiracy, is insufficient to decisively deal with this phenomenon, which is destructive to the integrity of the elections. Accordingly, as recommended by the Justice Uwais Electoral Reform Committee, the current statutory responsibility of INEC regarding the prosecution of electoral offenders should go to an ‘Election Offences Commission’. To accelerate the trial and punishment of offenders and address the impunity with which such offences are committed.

    The fifth is related to the Institutional Independence and Effectiveness of INEC. We need to rethink the process of nominating and empanelling INEC. The National Assembly should amend both the constitution and the electoral Act to review the process of appointments into INEC, specifically to divest the power from the appointment of Chairman and National Commissioners from Mr President, to free the commission from the damaging negative perception of “he who pays the piper dictates the tune” and professionalise lower-level administrative appointments, including headship of state offices of INEC. In this regard, the appointment of Resident Electoral Commissioners should be divested from the president and given to the Commission at INEC, with powers to hire and fire. Also, INEC needs to be unbundled to improve its efficiency and effectiveness in the preparation and conduct of elections, while an independent body should also take the registration and monitoring of the activities of political parties.

    Electoral reforms are essential for maintaining and improving the health of a democracy, ensuring that it remains responsive, representative, and accountable to its citizens’ diverse needs and interests. It plays a crucial role in strengthening and enhancing the functioning of democracy by promoting inclusivity, transparency and accountability, electoral integrity, and legitimacy. Given the importance of electoral reforms to democracy and the quality of governance, we must take it seriously this time. Our democracy is a work in progress; we must do our best to make it functional. Though tortious and painstaking, these extensive reviews are needed to keep reshaping our democracy.

    As imperfect as our electoral acts have been, they would have provided better elections if they had been adequately implemented. The bane of our electoral system is our penchant towards subverting the laws, sometimes with great impunity, and our total disregard for the rule of law. As we think about improving the Electoral Act to serve our electoral needs, we must reflect on implementing the Act’s content effectively. I also call for an attitude change among our politicians who are ingenious in coming up with ways to undermine the Electoral Act to their advantage. The Machiavellian approach to politics will continue to impede our electoral process no matter how perfect our electoral Act is. It is time for real change.

  • Dark chapter for the judiciary – By Dakuku Peterside

    Dark chapter for the judiciary – By Dakuku Peterside

    In 1961, the Prime Minister of Nigeria, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, enjoined Justice Adetokunbo Ademola to “never waiver from the truth” and a charged him that if he committed a crime and was brought before the justice, he should send him to jail. Balewa understands the importance of judicial independence and the integrity  of the judges in fostering an enduring democracy. He understands that the Judiciary in our democracy is the third estate of the realm, the interpreter of the law, the common man’s last hope and the society’s conscience. It  serves as checks and balances of the executive and the legislature while adjudicating criminal and civil matters within the society, punishing offenders, and protecting citizens.

    The judges who preside in Courts and the lawyers who prosecute or defend their clients ought to be impartial, upright, diligent, consistent, and open in whatever they do because their character is public property. The judges are the cynosure of the adjudication system and are expected to live above board. This is the ideal. However, this is too far from our current reality.

    Recently, there has been a substantial amount of debate, discussion and concerns about the health and reputation of Nigeria’s Judiciary. A cursory review and quasi-research of commentaries on the actions and inactions of Nigerian Judiciary in 5 Nigerian newspapers between September 2023 and September 2023 reveals that 67% were negative, 10% were classified as neutral, and a paltry 23% were positive. The inference to draw is that the Judiciary in Nigeria has been in the news for all the wrong reasons. Why, then, do the commentariat and public view the Nigerian Judiciary mainly in the negative?

    Our Judiciary has dug itself into a deep hole of credibility crisis  for three key reasons. The first reason is the preponderance of  questionable my judgements. This is worse with political cum election  cases. Some judgements are inconceivable, and it is difficult for right-thinking persons to wrap their heads around them. From politicians not participating in primaries but becoming substantive candidates to court injunctions against the arrest of politicians or politically exposed people on criminal allegations to unimaginable errors in electoral judgment and judicial procedures, one wonders why we are facing such an epidemic of judicial impunity.

    In election-related cases, could the waning quality of judgments be blamed on the sheer unmanageable caseload and the punishing timeline for hearing and delivering judgments in election petition cases ? Are the judges sitting on electoral tribunal or Appeal   in a panel of at least three members able to have valuable conferences to deliberate on the cases argued before them to enable them to make informed decisions? Or is it just a routine ritual where one member cavalierly decides, and the rest chorus their agreement with the lead judgment that they never had the prior privilege to read the draft in advance? Whatever the answers might be to these posers, the Judiciary is fast losing the trust and reverence it used to enjoy from the public.

    The second reason is the plethora of embarrassing corruption stories about the Judiciary constantly in the public domain. The public has lost trust in the incorruptible Judiciary, and now the general perception is that the Judiciary is prone to  corrupt practices . Although this may be a hasty generalisation because we still have honest and incorruptible judges doing a great job, they hardly get mentioned in the media. Instead, the public is bombarded with news about corruption in the Judiciary.

    Besides, the lifestyle of some judges belies the fact that they must be corrupt. We all know that the remuneration of judges and justices (between N450,000 to N750,000) is poor considering their excellent work; some live billionaires’ lifestyles, making people wonder how they come about the money they are spending. It is public knowledge that judges clamour for jobs in the election petition seasons, and evidence abounds that some of the judges’ lives change overnight after the election petition assignment  period. We have proof of some judges being indicted and punished for corruption in the electoral judicial cases saga, but that has not deterred others from engaging in such dastardly art.

    The third reason is the panoply of unethical conduct among judicial officers and the slow conduct of cases, especially during electoral adjudication periods. Judicial accountability is far fetched . Justice delayed is tantamount to justice denied. Most Nigerians will shy away from our Judicial system because of the delay in the court process and the recklessness of ending cases mostly on technical issues rather than substantive ones. This has been made worse by the politicisation of the Judiciary to the extent that some stakeholders call it the “capture of the Judiciary ” by politics. Judges are supposed to be politically neutral and objective, contributing to maintaining a democratic state without bias. However, we notice the involvement of some judges in politics, or their close family members are politicians or politically exposed, and therefore put undue pressure on them and the judicial system. Conflict of interest issues are seen, and politicians use all means necessary to maintain a firm hold on these judges.

    The most recent example of how low our judicial system has gone, which is very embarrassing, is the Kano State Governorship Contest Appeal Court judgement. Court of Appeal Kano on November 17 delivered judgement on this case, and parties applied and obtained the certified true copies of the judgement. Two days later, after Mr Femi Falana raised an alarm that there were significant inconsistencies in the judgement and that what was delivered in court was at variance with copies of the judgement given to parties, the Deputy Chief Registrar of the Court of Appeal on November 22, wrote to lawyers in the case to return the judgement for what he called “Typographical errors”.

    Meanwhile, the appellant had already filed its appeal before the Supreme Court. We must interrogate a lot of pertinent issues concerning this issue. First, the Kano Appeal Court judgment was unanimous, and the other two members of the panel of judges agreed with the lead judgment and stated in their contribution that they had read the lead  judgement and agreed with it, including consequential orders. So how come there were such blatant “clerical errors, “as stated by the Chief Registrar of the court in his subsequent publicised letter to the lawyers inviting them to apply to correct the errors? Second, why will this clerical error be made at the most essential part of the judgement declaration? Does this smell, taste and feel like human error rather than a deliberate attempt at mismanaging the judicial process? These raises concerns about the industry, quality of judgement, and integrity of the judiciary and men on the Bench.

    It is time we explore an alternative forum (Specialist Court) for resolving election disputes or narrow down the grounds on which elections are disputed. In the 2023 general elections, there were gubernatorial elections in 29 states, Houses of Assembly elections in 36 states, and NASS in all constituencies. Disputes arose from almost all these elections. In some cases, multiple parties filed petitions. Given the timelines prescribed in Section 285 CFRN, all these cases arrived at the Court of Appeal at about the same time and are to be determined within the same time frame – a point of thousands of court cases to be determined by a Court consisting of 81 judges (not all 81 would participate) in approximately 60 days. This timeframe covers the period for filing briefs and hearings; in most cases, they are left with barely a week after the hearing of the appeal. With this workload, should we expect justice from the Court of Appeal? Are the mistakes not inevitable? No one advocates for the injustice inflicted on hundreds of thousands of citizen litigants, whose matters have been abeyance until all political matters have been resolved.

    Second, this ‘error’ has created a potential constitutional quagmire. The supposed error is contained in the dispositive part of the judgment. Regardless of the content of the judgment, it is the court’s final disposition that is enforceable. What happens if the NNPP and Governor decide not to appeal and insist that the final disposition favours them? This is an opportunity to fight against judicial misconduct, negligence and sloppiness  . The police and the anti-graft agencies should not wait for an invitation or petition; they should investigate this.

    Regrettably, the erosion of the independence, integrity and reputation of the Judiciary is a critical aspect of the collapse of our democracy and the rise of impunity and authoritarianism. These signs are ominous because the failure of the Judiciary is the end of law and order and the genesis of anarchy. Unless the Judiciary is reformed and maintains its integrity, and independence, democracy dies. Members of the Legal profession, especially the Bench, must reflect on the consequences of their actions on society, especially the health of our democracy. All stakeholders must urgently interrogate how the Judiciary , which is supposed to protect and give us justice, became so vulnerable.

  • Dearth of integrity in public life – By Dakuku Peterside

    Dearth of integrity in public life – By Dakuku Peterside

    The integrity issue in Nigerian politics and public life has been a topic of discussion and concern for many years. Like many other countries, Nigeria has faced challenges related to corruption, lack of transparency, and ethical issues in its political landscape. It lacks integrity in its politics and tolerates acts of impunity, as proven by the prevalence of vote-buying and other dishonest practices in its elections. This has severe implications for Nigeria’s democracy and deserves our attention. Integrity is not just about breaking the law. It also means living by high moral standards, consistency, fairness to all and setting good examples. Integrity overlaps with ethics, morality, trustworthiness, conscientiousness, honesty, courage, and justice. There is no denying the importance of integrity in generating trust and confidence in leaders and the people, and this lays the foundation for transparency and accountability.

    The collapse of good governance in Nigeria can be linked to a dearth of integrity in public life. Integrity and public trust are intertwined—one links to the other. A causal relationship exists between integrity and public trust, especially with people in public offices. Nigerians expect public servants to serve the public interest fairly and properly manage public resources, but this is a mountain in our country. But what do we mean by integrity in public office? Do we mean playing by laid-down rules? Or does it mean bringing elements of personal discipline to bear on public office irrespective of official regulations or exigencies?

    The answer to the questions above is that integrity connotes playing by the rules and bringing high personal discipline to the office. Although we expect public office holders to be lawful, maintaining high personal discipline ensures they retain the high moral and ethical standards required by the office. Not all things that are not lawful are good, and not all things good are lawful. This is where ethics and morality come in. Unfortunately but factual , morality occupies the lowest possible rung on a virtues ladder in our public life. When leaders debase ethical and moral standards, it becomes an open gate for unleashing hell on the people. High principles often trump the law and should be the base or foundation of leadership and public service. The three cardinal tests all leaders and public servants must put through their actions, inactions, and decisions in the public interest are: Are these actions, inactions, or decisions lawful? Are they ethical? Are they morally proper? They must rethink their approach if any of the answers are negative. Some incidents in recent times show that integrity is quickly deteriorating in public life. The behaviour of some members of National Assembly and high-ranking government  officials can raise legitimate questions as to whether these public officials have any sense of integrity. Nigerians now see corruption, abuse of office, dishonesty, favouritism, nepotism, and opaqueness as normal. This is most worrisome.

    It is absurd that unless a leader is convicted in a court of law, he is free to continue to lead and continue any acts that he is pursuing that may be detrimental to society. This is even worse because most cases of impropriety and criminality that went to Nigerian courts are dismissed based on technicalities and not substance, thereby allowing leaders who may be culpable to go scot-free and continue unleashing mayhem on the public. What happens to the Court of Morality, the Court of Conscience, or the Court of public opinion? Does it not matter that a leader must be exonerated in these courts, too? Integrity dictates  that this must be the case. I will use two recent examples of what happened to two leaders in Western Europe to show the importance attached to integrity and public morality in leadership.

    In December 2019, Boris Johnson secured a landslide victory for his Conservative Party. He won an 80-seat parliamentary majority, the party’s most significant for 40 years. Yet less than three years later, he was brutally defenestrated by Members of Parliament, MPs, from his party. Members of his party deposed him because they accused him of lying and defending his friends and cronies who committed some wrong and holding party during the COVID-19 lockdown when the law was against public meetings. Although a great politician, the parliament, made up of both opposition party and ruling party members, values integrity in the political space more than other outstanding leadership qualities Johnson may have. They, irrespective of their political orientation or party affiliations, strive to maintain integrity in the political process and are happy to forgo any temporary advantage they or the party may gain by keeping someone in power whom the public knows has not kept the integrity and public trust.

    A few days ago, the Portuguese Prime Minister, Antonio Costa, announced his resignation following his alleged involvement in corruption. The Prime Minister resigned after meeting with the country’s President, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. The public prosecutor alleged “misuse of funds, active and passive corruption by political figures, and influence peddling” as the basis of prosecution. It is instructive that he resigned from his office to allow for proper prosecution without interference and protect the integrity of the process. In these two examples, the integrity of the process and public trust were prized so high that political actors involved willingly gave up their precious high offices to maintain the integrity of the political system and political space, thereby strengthening public trust in the political space. The supremacy of the leader’s integrity, the political process and systems over personal ambition and position are not in doubt.

    Would this have been the case in Nigeria?

    The dearth of integrity in our public life results from many issues. The first is a complete breakdown of public morality, not just within politics but in society. In the recent past, every parent extols the value and importance of a good name over all other achievements to their children. Family and community question your source of wealth and may either ostracize you or not partake of it if you cannot explain convincingly the origin. Today, the reverse is the case. The family and community push you to bring back a large chunk of the proverbial national cake, and when you do, you are celebrated. So, even when the government wants to punish corrupt people when it can prove it, their villages will make them chiefs when they return home with their share of the national loot.

    The  second is structural deficiencies such as weakness of institutions of public office integrity like ICPC, EFCC, Office of the Auditor General and Police ; fault in institutions for holding people accountable or punishing deviance; weakness in leadership selection process and criteria in politics and public service; and a morally bankrupt elite class that has turned itself into a parasite on the Nigerian state.

    Despite the challenges, Nigeria has made some progress in addressing integrity issues in politics. There have been high-profile anti-corruption trials and an increasing awareness of the need for ethical governance. However, sustained efforts are required to bring about lasting change. Over the years, there have been various efforts to reform the political system in Nigeria. Anti-corruption agencies, such as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offenses Commission (ICPC), have been established to investigate and prosecute corrupt practices. However, the effectiveness of these agencies has been a subject of debate. There is a need for a complete national re-orientation that focuses on teaching the  successor generation values, ethics, and morality with the hope that even if this generation fails to input integrity and honesty in our public space, the next generation will have a chance to right the wrong.

    The public, civil societies and the media must strive to hold public officers accountable and demand transparency. One primary reason public officers in Western democracies resign when they have committed known moral and legal infractions is that they know the public demands accountability and transparency and must comply. Even when government institutions fail to hold officers accountable, the public will- through the power of their votes. Morality and ethics matter. This calls our attention to the importance of our electoral integrity. News coming from the off-season election in 3 states in Nigeria shows that much has stayed the same. How can the public hold public officers accountable without free and fair elections? We need solid and ethical leadership that shows example. We must strengthen institutions of public accountability- internal audits, whistle-blowers, better public accounting with triggers and red alerts, better law enforcement, and a cleaner judiciary. We must subscribe to renowned preacher Billy Graham’s mantra that ‘integrity can be restored to a society one person at a time’. The choice belongs to each of us.

  • Politics of statistics in Nigeria – By Dakuku Peterside

    Politics of statistics in Nigeria – By Dakuku Peterside

    Statistics should help settle arguments, in theory. We assume they provide stable reference points that everyone – no matter what their opinion, persuasion, belief, or politics is– can agree on. However, there has been a global trend in recent years showcasing that divergent levels of trust in statistics have become one of the fundamental schisms that have opened up in both developed and developing democracies. Instead of diffusing controversy and polarisation, statistics seem to be stoking them. Apathy for statistics has become one of the hallmarks of the populists’ movements, with statisticians and statistics viewed by many as untrustworthy and almost insulting. Some people’s sense of political decency is violated by reducing social and economic issues to numerical aggregates and averages, especially when these aggregates are perceived as the basis for political gain or otherwise.

    The politics of statistics in Nigeria has been a topic of concern for quite some time, with several issues affecting the credibility and reliability of data in the country. The first significant issue is instances of data manipulation and politicisation of statistics to serve particular political agendas. This has led to the distortion of essential data, hindering accurate policy formulation and decision-making. The second is that in Nigeria, statistical agencies often face challenges due to inadequate funding, which impacts the quality and scope of data collection. Limited resources lead to insufficient sampling sizes and compromised data quality. The result often does not reflect reality. Third, political interference in statistical processes and institutions can compromise the independence and neutrality of statistical data. This leads to a lack of trust in the data provided by both government and non-governmental agencies.

    Fourth, Nigeria, like many other developing countries, needs help with accurate population figures. The inability to accurately capture the population hinders effective planning and resource allocation, leading to significant challenges in implementing policies and programmes. Fifth, limited public access to data and a lack of transparency in the statistical process have raised concerns about the credibility of data published by government agencies. This lack of clarity can lead to doubts about the accuracy and reliability of the data. And finally, Nigeria’s vast and diverse population, along with its geographic challenges, poses difficulties in accurately collecting data across all regions. This can lead to disparities and inaccuracies in national statistics, making it challenging to develop effective policies that cater to the needs of the entire population.

    Nigeria and Nigerians like controversy when it comes to numbers and statistics. There is controversy about our actual population, deaths and births, number of unemployed persons, those living below the poverty line, number of votes cast in an election, cars, volume of oil produced, even number of civil servants, up to fuel consumption and number of persons who got palliatives from the government. All can be traced to two issues – Nigeria’s poor statistics collection and analysis system and the politicisation of all statistical information. This explains my excitement and interest in participating in the workshop organised by National Bureau of Statistics ( NBS) on a national strategy for the development of statistics, and it was indeed an eye-opener. The organisers, NBS, paper presenters, panellists and participants did well. It was a robust and thought-stimulating engagement. After the workshop, I took away five main lessons about Nigeria, Nigerians, and statistics.

    The first lesson is that most political leaders are indifferent to statistics. They make bland and blind promises during campaigns and even when they are in government. There are many examples: Politicians promise “Education for all” without quantifying this promise based on available data – the questions they fail to consider are: how many pupils? How much per kid? How many teachers per school? At what salary? How many classrooms are needed, and at what price? Another example is the promise of “Housing for all.” The questions that merit consideration are: How many units? At how much? With what facilities? How much per unit? In how many years? Their programmes are not based on concrete figures or data. Because of this lack of respect for data, there is no basis for accountability at the end of their tenure. There is no concrete basis to compare and measure the variance that shows progress or lack thereof.

    The second lesson is that there needs to be more uptake and use of statistics for Policy Planning and decision-making in Nigeria, which accounts for why we have poor outcomes for money spent by the government at all levels. The principal value of statistics should be to guide policy and decision-making. Here, on the supply side by NBS and the States Bureau of Statistics (SBS), the focus is on the production of statistics and not usage. On the demand side, most policymakers and civil servants have little or no understanding of the use of statistics to make policy or for planning. Though we have only anecdotal data to support this position, having been in government for a considerable period, I know this to be true. Policies and decisions of leaders are based on sentiments and personal interests.

    The third lesson is the problem of fragmentation of statistics. This has caused us so much harm and has continued to harm our quest for development than we know. Different unreliable statistics from various sources have eroded the public confidence in data and diminished the value of statistics. The average Nigerian does not believe in whatever statistics is churned out, and it is, therefore, not a basis in real terms to solve problems or measure progress. Our statistics are not harmonised, and sometimes, they are scattered around the country, and the data are in formats that do not lend themselves to easy usage. Where different bodies are collecting and collating these data, sometimes there are significant differences among them that make it challenging to pontificate using any of the databases.

    The fourth lesson is that without a unified data/statistics repository that serves as a one-stop-shop for warehousing statistics across national and subnational, planning is groping in the dark in Nigeria. Policymakers and development planners often work in the dark because of a lack of reliable data. It is, therefore, understandable why it is so challenging to say policy efforts are truly making a difference. This partially explains why planning has not produced the desired outcome and we as a people do not take national development plans seriously. Our politicians, policymakers, and project and programme planners need high statistical literacy. CEOs of MDAs and principal officers need to be stronger in analysing data. They need more capacity to decipher relevant facts out of data. They prefer fiction to facts. They fear facts and data. There is a natural tendency to cover up leakages in the system, especially in the flow of funds. Statistics and corruption are incompatible.

    The fifth lesson is that, as a nation, we are not investing in statistics because we cannot see the link between statistics and the knowledge economy. Statistics is an intangible, non-kinetic and invisible item/product compared to goods, construction, machinery, and equipment. Politicians and civil servants prefer brick-and-mortar to non-tangible accomplishments. It is an anomaly that some government agencies are developing little, or no data needed for economic planning and execution. Even when some create this information, they delay the publication and distribution of such information to relevant agencies and the public. I posit with authority that most government agencies have not provided the statutory Annual Reports of activities, achievements, and financial dealings for the year. Some organisations have yet to do so for over five years. Meanwhile , I discovered that NBS has incredible load of data and statistics useful to almost all aspects of national life . A lot of work is going on in NBS that Policy makers and citizens who need it are not taking advantage of . The current leadership seems very focused and deserves support.

    There are many ways in which statistics can help the quest for authentic leadership. Statistics can be used as a basis for planning and projections, a show of mastery of constituency needs, a basis for budgeting, a framework for policy design and planning, and a foundation for mapping implementation timelines and evaluation of programme implementation.

    We have noted that one important tool to fight corruption is using statistics because statistics and corruption are incompatible. To address these issues, Nigeria must prioritise the independence of statistical agencies, ensure adequate funding, improve data collection methodologies, enhance transparency, and promote data-driven policies. Additionally, fostering a culture of accountability and integrity within the statistical system is essential to building trust in the accuracy and reliability of data in Nigeria.

  • Budget of Booby Traps – By Dakuku Peterside

    Budget of Booby Traps – By Dakuku Peterside

    There is a deafening silence in the land over the state of the economy. No right-thinking person can take this silence or mood of the nation for granted. This eery silence is invariably linked to a cost-of-living crisis, exchange rate crisis, uncanny economic uncertainties and other unfavourable economic variables hovering over Nigeria like an ominous overcast and has turned the table against the average Nigerian citizen. Today’s economic realities are the byproduct of many decades of squandered opportunities and mismanagement. We are at the point where we have no choice but to get things right and bring about positive change in the renewed hope agenda of the current administration. One tool to give people hope and economic direction is the national budget, and the 2024 version of this essential national document is ripe to be laid before the National Assembly (NASS) and for NASS to do justice to it according to law and the current challenges facing the nation. This ‘budget of Renewed Hope” must depart from the norm if we are earnest about getting things right in Nigeria. However, the systems and structures that made our budgets ineffectual are still there and may succeed in pushing this new budget towards the path that destroys the essence and soul of the budget.

    In ordinary times, the national budget should reflect our values, priorities, pursuit of economic stability and broad growth anchors. This is even more important in a crisis period. In the recent past, this has not been our experience. National budgets have served purposes other than the one it is meant for – starting from unrealistic budget formulation, budget padding, duplication of projects, allocation of projects to agencies outside its mandate, the deliberate creation of multiple pipelines for corruption purposes, and underspending to unsatisfactory budget implementation. But these are no ordinary times. The budget must reflect the mood of the nation. People are hurting from devastating economic hardship, and the 2024 budget must be the first blueprint and anchor of hope for millions of Nigerians looking for solutions to their many problems. My ordinary expectation is that the Executive arm would put up a budget that focuses on sectors of urgent national concern;social welfare, education, health, transportation, power, agriculture, and internal security. The budget will show the direction of this government in the next year, and the president will expect NASS to keep to the spirit and letter of the budget and not deviate from it to help him champion his renewed hope agenda.

    Analysing the Nigerian budget over the last decade provides insight into the country’s economic trends, government priorities, and overall fiscal management. A critical review of these budgets highlights some of the negatives that have led us to our economic quagmire, and we must keep such negatives from creeping into and affecting the 2024 budget if we want it to be fit for purpose. The Nigerian budget is often influenced by factors such as oil prices, internal security challenges, infrastructure development, and social welfare programmes. However, as dynamic as the Nigerian circumstances are and the complexities that define our economic realities, our bane comes more from structural decays and ineptitude than from the content, spirit and intentions behind the budget or the known trends that inevitably affect them. Some of these known trends are outlined below.

    First, Nigeria heavily relies on oil revenue, which has led to budget volatility due to fluctuations in global oil prices. During high oil prices, the budget tends to increase, leading to ambitious spending plans. However, during oil price slumps, the government often faces significant revenue shortfalls and struggles implementing planned projects. Second, Nigeria ran a deficit budget for over a decade. Nigeria’s debt profile has risen in the last decade as the government has resorted to borrowing to bridge revenue shortfalls and finance infrastructure projects. The increasing debt burden has raised concerns about the country’s debt sustainability, particularly in servicing these debts. Third, Nigerian budgets pander towards recurrent expenditure rather than capital expenditure and infrastructural development. Besides, these insufficient capital and infrastructural projects have been fraught with challenges such as corruption, inadequate project planning, and implementation delays that have hindered the successful execution of these projects. Fourth, most budgets during Buhari’s eight-year tenure have a significant slant towards social welfare, focusing on poverty alleviation, job creation, and social empowerment but the impact and effectiveness of these initiatives have been a subject of debate and scrutiny. Fifth, past budgets showed increased efforts to diversify the Nigerian economy away from oil dependence, focusing on sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and technology with minimal result to show for it.

    Overall, the Nigerian budget in the last decade reflects a mix of challenges and opportunities, highlighting the need for improved fiscal management, transparency, and sustainable economic reforms to foster inclusive growth and development. However, the most significant difficulty with our budgets is the corruption around the budget both at the formulation and implementation stages. ICPC alleged that civil servants padded 2021 and 2022 budgets with projects duplication worth over N400billion. BudgIT, a non-governmental civic organisation, also alleged that there were insertions of  6,576  “strange”projects by federal lawmakers in the 2022 budget, which bloated the budgets of different federal ministries, contributing further to a breach of the budget ceiling safeguards announced by the Budget Office of the Federation on August 19, 2021. On poor implementation of budget due to inadequate budget formulation, data collated by BudgIT has shown that only 13 out of the 36 states in Nigeria implemented 80 per cent of their budgets for the 2022 fiscal year. And the federal government has never attained 60% implementation in recent times. Most of the underspending is on Capital expenditure. Besides, for ten years, from 2012 to 2022, we have consistently earned less revenue than we budgeted, meaning we always chose the option of debt financing. The same applies to budget performance, we have always spent less than budgeted. Unrealistic budgeting has created credibility problem for Nigeria’s budget. This is even worse by the over-bloated prices for projects that bring little relief to the people.

    Invariably, four constituencies have lofty expectations from this 2024 budget. The citizens of Nigeria, especially the majority going through rough economic times, expect this budget to be a turning point for them. To them, it is a budget of hope – a renewed hope for a better future and a better Nigeria that Mr president promised them during his campaign. However, the citizens must show a keen interest in the budget-making process. Citizen participation in the budget-making process leads to a responsive budget allocation by the National Assembly, enhances good governance, and improves the delivery of public services. The international community is waiting for the budget to see whether we are serious about shifting direction and doing things differently. They will have to judge whether it is business as usual or whether Nigeria has taken a stand to match rhetoric with actions in its bid to become an economic giant. Students of history and economics are waiting to see if this budget will be the start of a new epoch that will mark on the sands of time indelibly that this set  of leaders will transform Nigeria forever. The last constituency is the National Assembly, and it behoves them to perform their oversight functions properly during the budget implementation phase and leave up to their mandate.

    Over the past decade, there have been concerns about the actual disbursement and effective utilisation of budgeted funds, leading to challenges in achieving developmental goals and meeting the population’s needs. Ensuring effective budget implementation and accountability has been a persistent challenge in Nigeria. Corruption, mismanagement of funds, and weak institutional frameworks have hampered the efficient utilisation of budgetary allocations, undermining the country’s development efforts. The Nigerian Executive and NASS have a responsibility to get things right with the new budget. If not, we are on a long road to perdition.

    Nigerians have expectations of the Executive and NASS regarding the 2024 budget formulation, ratification, implementation, and accountability. We expect a workable and realistic budget. We expect a cut down on the cost of governance. We expect less deficit, reduced or elimination of waste, and reduced debt profile. They must eschew all forms of budget padding, intentional duplication of projects, and deliberate creation of multiple pipelines for corruption purposes. The 2024 budget must lay the foundation for the economic growth of Nigeria by at least starting the process of diversifying the economy, addressing unemployment, and tackling poverty. We expect patriotism to drive the budget formulation process to the advantage of Nigeria and Nigerians and not the benefit of a few. We are in an economic ocean; we must either swim or sink. And swim we must!

  • Epidemic of illicit arms – By Dakuku Peterside

    Epidemic of illicit arms – By Dakuku Peterside

    From the small handguns of the 15th century to the sophisticated machine guns and other small and light weapons of our time, the world has suffered mayhem and wanton destruction due to the rightful and wrongful use of these weapons. In the hands of non-state actors, these weapons are used to challenge the state monopoly of coercion and in committing all levels of criminality, from kidnaping, armed robbery, banditry, and criminal revolt against the state.

    The more dangerous dimension in Nigeria is the illegal possession of military grade arsenal by criminals and non state actors. This unlimited and unchecked proliferation of illegal arms has reached the epidemic level in Nigeria in recent times with attendant national security implications . Neither the Executive nor the legislature or the security agencies seem to have mustered the will to tackle it. Only a few cosmetic exercises have been done. I acknowledge the little gains made by these efforts, but they have not been enough to reduce, if not eradicate, the menace of the proliferation of small and light weapons in Nigeria.

    The issue of illicit Small And Light Weapons (SALW) is a serious concern globally, and Nigeria has not been immune to its effects. Illegal small and light weapons refer to weapons that are not controlled by a state or a non-state entity and are often used in criminal activities or conflicts. The proliferation of such weapons in Nigeria has had devastating consequences, contributing to the perpetuation of violence, crime, and insecurity in various parts of the country. There have been reports of the circulation of small and light weapons in different regions of Nigeria, particularly in areas affected by conflicts, such as the Niger Delta, the North-East region plagued by Boko Haram insurgency, and other volatile areas,but no serious attempt ,by Nigerian authorities, has been made to get data about the estimated number of SALW in circulation . These weapons often find their way into the hands of criminal groups, insurgents, and other non-state actors, fuelling instability and posing a threat to both national and regional security. With access to many illegal weapons, the rogue elements have become emboldened and more aggressive, hence less amenable to entreaties to make peace and are objects of terror to all. The situation where these rogue elements have better and more sophisticated weapons than the security agents leave much to be desired. We expose our security men to harm’s way in their seemingly onerous task of protecting us.

    The statistics on small and light weapons aberration in Nigeria are alarming. According to Small Arms Survey, a Swiss-based non-profit, in 2020, Nigeria had an estimated 6.2m of arms in the hands of civilians, excluding those of the military and law enforcement agencies. This means that 3.21 per 100 persons in Nigeria have firearms, whereas 224,200 and 362,400 guns were in the possession of the military and other law enforcement agencies, respectively. This is by far the highest number of civilian small arms and light weapons in any African country. The same organisation posits that Nigeria has more Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) than any country in sub–Saharan Africa.

    The economy of SALW is growing and robust in Nigeria due to the multifactorial and complex situations fuelling the proliferation of illicit SALW. These factors include illegal smuggling of weapons through our porous borders, the conflict in the Sahel region in recent times, stolen firearms and gunrunning by rogue security personnel, a thriving local arms industry in places like Awka, Calabar, Lagos and other known local weapon manufacturing locations in Nigeria, illegal mining activities and oil bunkering, drugs and narcotics linkages, political violence especially during elections, armed vigilantes and extremists, and private security outfits. The demand and supply of these weapons are growing, creating a vicious circle of use of these weapons to perpetuate criminality. The superiority of the man with the gun over others who do not, and his ability to bend others to his whims and caprices, makes ownership of illicit arms attractive to many, even if not for use in criminal acts, but for self-defence. This is the bane of Nigeria. Citizen’s self-help in security issues is an aberration and does not help the SALW conundrum Nigeria has found itself.

    Nigeria has attempted to combat this issue, including participating in international initiatives, and implementing various policies and programs to control the spread of illicit weapons. I must acknowledge the work done by the Amnesty office, which has conducted small arms and light weapons amnesty at various times. They collected many SALW in exchange for giving the people who submitted them cash incentives. Furthermore, the Nigerian government has set up legislative, institutional, and policy frameworks to tackle this menace. The National Commission for the Coordination and Control of Proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons is one such instrument to deal with these issues. However, not much has been heard of the activities of this agency . Notwithstanding , continued commitment and collaboration at the national and international levels are crucial for effectively addressing the epidemic of illicit small and light weapons in Nigeria and creating a more stable and secure environment for its citizens.

    Addressing the challenge of illicit SALW in Nigeria requires a combination of strategies and multifaceted approach that involves cooperation between the government, security agencies, and international partners. Strategies might include a nationwide arms decommissioning exercise , strengthening border controls to prevent the influx of weapons, improving intelligence-gathering mechanisms to track illicit arms trafficking, and implementing disarmament, and reintegration programme to retrieve weapons from non-state actors and reintegrate them into society.

    Furthermore, promoting community-based initiatives, fostering dialogue, and investing in socio-economic development can help address the root causes of conflicts, thereby reducing the demand for these weapons. Strengthening law enforcement and promoting judicial reforms are also essential in ensuring that those involved in the illicit arms trade face legal consequences.

    It is time to strengthen appropriate institutions to enforce laws and regulations on the control of SALW. We must upend the penalty and punishment for bearing illegal arms and ensure people know the severe consequences of being caught with illicit arms. We must invest in Intelligence to track the movement and location of these illegal arms and take the war to those who engage in this unlawful and dangerous business. We must remember that we can either cut off the supply for SALW and watch the demand fizzle away or vice versa. Any actions or inactions that will hurt the SALW economy will be in the right direction. Political merchants and their thugs should never forget that Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) live longer after elections.

    Government at all levels must collaborate with civil societies and other interested local and international agencies to systematically reduce the risk of proliferation and transfer of SALW by confiscating and destroying these weapons. They must raise awareness, especially among children and youths, about the dangers of illicit SALW through a robust and well-organised campaign, education, outreach, and representation. They must implement evidence-based policies and practices to control the spread of SALW. Private citizens must resist the desire to resort to self-help in the issue of insecurity, thereby worsening the scourge of weapon proliferation. The government must take back control of the security of the nation, which is its primary role, and give citizens confidence that the government can and will protect their lives and property.

    The  proliferation of SALWs, occasioned by multiple factors of porous national borders, allows for the smuggling of these weapons from other countries connected with previous and present conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa and North Africa, a booming business of gunrunning by security personnel, a thriving local arms industry and nonexistence of a robust and fit-for-purpose regulatory and enforcement mechanism are the main factors fuelling Nigeria’s security challenges, giving rise to criminal activities across the country. This grim revelation does not bode well for Nigeria, especially at this critical time when the nation is experiencing severe economic and security challenges across almost all the regions. It is time we stepped up our game to confront illicit SALW and start resolving our insecurity problems. The government must take back control of its supremacy in the use of instruments of coercion in Nigeria and make most non-state actors disengage in trying to control some or all parts of the Nigerian state.

  • ‘Two Global Wars and our Economic Plight’ – By Dakuku Peterside

    ‘Two Global Wars and our Economic Plight’ – By Dakuku Peterside

    There is fire on the mountain. It seems too far away, and the fire looks more like a smouldering fire than a volcano. However, the molten lava is simmering in the belly of the volcano, waiting to be unleashed. No matter what we do, although living in a faraway land, the lava shoots out like a rocket-propelled missile, and the ensuing heat will eventually reach and affect us. Should we be overwhelmed by the fear of the unknown? Or should we not work out the unknown from the known and put our house in order, as every good family head will do? Some facts are not just obvious but apparent. It would be best if you connected the dots to get the full import of the picture. We are in such a situation now. Fact number one: the world is headed for a prolonged war in the Ukraine / Russia crisis, and now the Israel/ Hamas conflict has ensued. After nearly 18 months of Russia-Ukraine gruesome warfare and its adverse impact on living standards, no one can wish for another row of any dimension. Fact number 2: the global economy will be affected if this conflict continues in its current trajectory and may get complicated if the sphere of war expands to Iran. Fact number 3: the Nigerian economy would be significantly negatively impacted if we do not take steps to hedge our economic projections and plans. The latter is the focus of our discourse for today.

    The ramifications of these conflicts are too huge to contemplate. The sensitive nature of the Israel-Palestine brouhaha touches the emotional nerves of the world, polarizing the world into two dominant frames: supporters of Israel versus supporters of Palestine. The baggage behind this support is generational and more heuristic than logical. It is tainted with elements of religious dichotomy.

    The economic interlinkages of the global community are manifesting clearly as the Russia- Ukraine war ravages the economies of nations and is now further complicated by the hostilities between Hamas and Israel. The global economy would sink deeper in three significant ways. Israel- Hamas conflict will most likely engender a spike in energy costs. It would add to inflationary pressure already escalated by COVID-19 and the Russia- Ukraine war. And it may lead to a global recession. Bloomberg economists predict global growth may drop to 1.7% and, in the worst-case scenario, may lead to another recession.

    Nigeria is already grappling with multiple economic challenges, and other developing economies are seriously and multidimensionally impacted. The discourse around mitigating the adverse negative economic impact of the two war fronts in Nigeria must be on the table. This new scenario presents another addition to issues that must be considered in navigating the complex global linkages to strengthen our economy and reduce the burden on citizens. If the crisis between Israel and Hamas expands to a regional one involving Iran, Lebanon, and Syria, crude oil prices will spike, and if not, the price rise will be marginal.

    For Nigeria, a crude oil-producing nation, this is paradoxical in two ways. First, the attendant shortfall in supply resulting from disruption in production in the Middle East may boost oil supply revenue. But we may not harness those benefits because of the Niger Delta oil production conundrum. We have yet to be able to meet our OPEC quota. Hence, only a little may be gained through an increase in supply, at least in the short run. Second, the prospect of an oil price increase seems reasonable especially if Iran is drawn into the conflict . The government of Nigeria would earn additional income from the sale of crude, and that can help shore up our currency, which is crashing like a house built on sand. However, when you juxtapose this with the fact that we import all our petroleum products and export less than our OPEC quota, whatever benefit there is vanishes to the air.

    The Guardian economists argue that the brewing energy crisis may force the Nigerian government to spend N644.8 billion subsidizing Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) monthly. They argued that with “PMS trading at $1,023.00 per metric tonne at the international market as Naira exchange above N1,020/$, crude oil price at about $100 per barrel would push the difference between the current pump price and the actual price to about N400. This difference amounts to about N644.8 billion monthly given the current consumption of about 52 million litres daily.”

    The conflict in the Middle East could lead to additional inflation in Nigeria. Shipping costs would increase because of insurance. It might cause massive disruption in global trade logistics, and when you add this to the mix of higher gas prices, inflation is the natural result. Inflation will worsen for Nigeria, which imports substantial consumer items, and most families cannot afford basic needs. Inflation will worsen poverty and the crime rate.

    While we battle inflation, the Naira might weaken because of impending slow growth projected at 1.7%. The government would be forced to intervene on two fronts, first to try to stabilize the currency by injecting non-existent foreign exchange and secondly, by reintroducing subsidies on a smaller scale to cushion the effect of a hike in the cost of petroleum products or allow for an increase in petrol price. The only saving grace might be if the Dangote refinery comes on stream and at least two of our refineries become functional.

    There is also the possibility of the FG and State government borrowing more as they struggle to implement the budget. State governments have already borrowed about N46.17bn from banks to pay salaries between January and June 2023. The FG borrowed a $800 million loan from the World Bank to cushion the adverse effects of the supposed removal of subsidy. It further followed an alleged loan of $1.95 billion from the World Bank in the first four months of this government.

    Clearly, our government and economic managers must think ahead, plan, and be more disciplined, as there are turbulent paths ahead. Policymakers must weigh the immediate economic needs against long-term sustainability and be prepared to make tough decisions. Nigeria needs to prepare itself for a potential surge in the domestic price of petroleum products with the attendant increase in the cost of transportation, cost of doing business, and hardship, especially for those at the economic periphery. Citizens may be impoverished more, and the number of multidimensional poor Nigerians will exacerbate. We cannot afford to play the ostrich while the deities in Russia, Ukraine, Israel, and Hamas play the Game of Thrones. We are at the receiving end, so we must think outside the box to navigate these unusual times.

    As a nation, we must work back our economic numbers and plan on worst-case scenarios so we are better ready rather than live in optimism and ignore global economic realities that would ultimately unfold and engulf all, hitting the least planned nations. The dual inferno has been ignited in a faraway mountain, but what we do now in our distant land will define our future. We hope that the war in the Middle East will de-escalate as soon as possible. But we must do more than hope. Nigeria’s challenge in all these remains that of forward global strategic thinking which had never been part of  our government culture . We are a reactive nation and not a proactive nation with a sense of mission . We must plan and act to protect ourselves from the potentially harsh consequences of our economy. In the medium to long term, Nigeria may need to diversify its economy, reduce its dependence on oil exports, and promote domestic production and non-oil sectors to mitigate the potential negative impacts. Additionally, fostering diplomatic relations and strengthening regional cooperation can help minimize the adverse effects of these conflicts on Nigeria’s economy.

  • Kevin McCarthy and the travails of democracy – By Dakuku Peterside

    Kevin McCarthy and the travails of democracy – By Dakuku Peterside

    Too many unusual events in politics point to the fact that democracy is under threat. A few events, some recent and others very current, will demonstrate this point. The first is Donald Trump, possibly the most controversial US president, who set democracy back when he refused to concede to President  Joe Biden and went on to encourage rebellion against democratic ethos and the US institutions. The second is the wave of coups in Sub-Saharan Africa in the past three years, which may signal a lack of faith and a decline in democratic values.

    However, some of them result from specific historical developments, which may have little to do with the fortunes of democracy itself. Over the past decade, since 2013, there have been twenty-two coups and attempted coups across the continent, with fourteen of them taking place in the past three years alone (2020-2023). The third is the impeachment of US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the first in US history. The reasons for his impeachment may be far-flung, but at the core are the triple issues of lack of trust in the former Speaker, the dominant presence of Trump in the Republican Party, and the bitter political rivalry between hardcore liberals and conservatives in American politics.

    The single most important factor underlying the congressional turmoil is the dominant presence of Trump in the Republican Party. Never in the history of the US has the fate of the Grand Old Party (GOP) been so tied to an individual as currently  being experienced. The undercurrent of what swept away McCarthy is the tussle between anti-Trump and pro-Trump forces in the US congress, particularly in the Republican Party. The few Republican congressmen who cocked the gun on McCarthy only needed the ready massive number of the Democrats to demolish the Speaker whom neither side trusted. Why should we be interested in the impeachment of McCarthy in the US?

    There are parallelisms in the issue of trust and mechanics of politics between American and Nigerian politics. The point of trust  in public life is central to leadership, and successful leaders cultivate trust among fellow leaders, followers, and the public in general. I have addressed in this column on 10th October 2022,  the importance of trust in leadership. Transactional leaders may have their way but can never be the model. When it comes to democracy, what people want in leadership is a trusted person who will not be transactional. He must be a man of his word, not a two-faced dealer, hustler, and liar. Any advantage such leaders may gain is temporary, and eventually, their sins will catch up with them. The best word to describe McCarthy is glad-hander. He plays with Trump at night, the Democrats in the morning, and Republicans at noon. As long as it serves his interests, he enjoys it. We have too many of his type in Nigerian politics, and they will likely have the same fate as McCarthy did eventually.

    The relationship between trust and the decline  of democracy is a complex and vital issue in politics and contemporary global affairs. Democracy relies heavily on the trust of its citizens in various institutions, including the government, the rule of law, and the electoral process. When trust erodes, it can lead to a retreat or erosion of democratic values and institutions. Trust plays a vital role in the health and stability of democratic systems. The decline of democracy often involves a breakdown of trust in key institutions and processes, which can lead to political instability, the rise of authoritarian leaders, and a weakening of democratic values. Efforts to rebuild trust and strengthen democratic institutions are essential for maintaining and revitalising democratic governance.

    Let us examine the various aspects of trust in democratic government and identify how we can build more trust in the system to stem the  decline of democracy.

    The first sign of democratic retreat  is the lack of trust in the government. Trust in government is a crucial component of a healthy democracy. Citizens must believe their government is responsive to their needs, accountable, and acting in their best interests. When trust in government declines due to corruption, inefficiency, or perceived lack of representation, it leads to a loss of faith in the democratic system. Little wonder citizens become apathetic and view government as part of their problem instead of the solution to their problems. Corrupt and inefficient government is anathema to democracy. This lack of trust in government is exacerbated by a lack of electoral integrity, which results in an illegitimate democratic government.

    Concerns about election manipulation, fraud, or foreign interference can erode trust in the electoral process and the legitimacy of elected leaders. Many countries are facing this anomaly. Studies have shown that the right to choose leaders in a free and fair election, an essential element of democracy, is on the decline globally and not just in sub–Saharan Africa.

    Another symptom of democratic retreat is a lack of trust in democratic institutions, especially the Judiciary,  parliament , media and electoral umpire A decline in trust in these institutions can weaken the checks and balances essential for a functioning democracy. A clime where justice is bought and sold to the highest bidder, where the ordinary man ceases to see the courts as the last hope of the common man, and where the executive arm hijacks the Judiciary and turns it into its puppet, can never uphold the ideals and ethos of democracy. Democracy retreats when the media, which should be the fourth estate of the realm and the watchdog of society, are controlled and manipulated by the government and special interests they are meant to hold accountable and stifle the voice of the voiceless and less powerful. Also, the spread of disinformation and the erosion of trust in media can harm democracy. When people no longer trust the information they receive, it becomes difficult for them to make informed decisions as voters and participants in the democratic process.

    Besides, high levels of political polarisation contribute to a retreat of democracy by undermining trust between different population segments. When citizens view their political opponents as enemies rather than fellow citizens with differing views, it can lead to political gridlock and undermine the democratic process. Although politicians in all climes prefer to protect their interests above the public interest, leadership change does not necessarily have to be violent or monetarily induced. It should be a tool to reinforce acceptable values in society and reject values that do not represent who we are.

    High levels of social trust can lead to greater cooperation and a willingness to compromise, which is crucial for democratic governance. Social trust is more accessible to build in countries with good economic opportunities and high quality of living than in areas with high economic inequalities. Economic inequality contributes to a lack of trust in democratic systems. When citizens perceive that the political and economic elite benefit disproportionately from the system, it can lead to feelings of disillusionment and a retreat from democratic engagement.

    Finally, in some cases, declining trust in democratic institutions can lead to the rise of populist leaders who promise to address citizens’ concerns but may undermine democratic norms and institutions in the process. Populist leaders often portray themselves as the sole legitimate voice of “the people,” leading to a concentration of power and retreating from democratic principles.

    To stem the tide of democratic retreat, we must tackle most of these issues and build a democracy that adopts all its ideals, ethos, and principles. Also, promoting moral reinforcement , civic education and political literacy can help build trust in democratic institutions by ensuring that citizens understand how the system works and how to engage effectively in the political process. Democracy worldwide is challenged, and it is time all democratic governments worked to prove the superiority of democracy to other forms of government. The rise of successful alternative governments, like in China, the Middle East, and different benevolent autocratic regimes, has questioned the efficacy of democracy and its principles of freedom, equity, and  periodic elections. We cannot yet proclaim the death of democracy, but we can indeed say that democracy, as an ideal, is under intense attack. Democrats all over the world must defend it!

  • Nigeria @63: Resolving diversity management and inclusiveness – By Dakuku Peterside

    Nigeria @63: Resolving diversity management and inclusiveness – By Dakuku Peterside

    The Economist Intelligence Unit 2009 ranked Nigeria in the world’s top five most diverse countries. It simultaneously ranked the country as the 45th of 47 countries sustaining national diversity. Diversity management and inclusiveness are essential and contentious issues in Nigeria today as it was in 1960. As acknowledged by President Tinubu in a recent foreign trip, our diversity ought to be an asset for nation-building and development. Promoting diversity and inclusion is crucial for social cohesion, economic development, and the nation’swell-being.

    This great country is an intricate assemblage of cultures, faiths, and languages. With a populace that surpasses 220 million, Nigeria prides itself on an impressiveness of over 250 ethnic groups, with over 500 languages lending voice to its diverse populace. Managing and celebrating this diversity is essential for national unity.

    Our incredible diversity is a double-edged sword; it made us a great nation, a melting pot of rich diversity that, if properly harnessed, will make Nigeria one of the best countries to live and work in. Harnessing positive cultural traits brings great rewards to all. You see this in our culinary expressions, music, and arts. It is little wonder Nigeria dominates all other African countries in these aspects. Our food, music and arts are synonymous with African food, music, and art. The second side of the sword is the challenges our diversity has created in making Nigeria a cohesive and united state. People from many of the ethnic nationalities that make up Nigeria place their identity and loyalty first to their ethnic nationality before contemplating their Nigerian identity. It is little wonder some have described Nigeria as a mere geographical expression devoid of the bond of nationhood that makes a great state.

    Historically, the unholy union of many ethnic nationalities into one dominant protectorate (Northern and Southern protectorates, respectively) for administrative ease by Britain without due consultation with the nationalities or due consideration to their historical engagements created tensions that revibrate to our time. Rival and enemy ethnic nationalities were lumped together and expected to coexist peacefully without correcting the historical malice, stereotypes, and innuendos that had existed for hundreds or thousands of years before colonisation. As if this was not enough, in 1914, the British colonialists performed the unholy marriage of the Northern and Southern protectorates to create Nigeria. This marriage was clearly for administrative ease and not any well-thought-out plan for creating a nation-state.

    There was no clear evidence that the first experiment of bundling the ethnic nationalities into protectorates brought them together other than for administrative benefits. Each ethnic nationality maintained its identity and never wholly surrendered to the new identity. Scaling up forced union by the amalgamation of 1914 without giving proper attention to making ethnic nationalities bond together created a Nigeria of many ethnic nationalities that were suspicious of each other. This suspicion and sometimes outright hatred among ethnic nationalities served the British colonisers’ divide-and-rule approach well. In 1914, we had a nation-state made up of ethnic nationalities that were neither not interested in it nor suspicious of everything about it to place complete loyalty to Nigeria.

    The post-1914 Nigeria saw many activities geared towards making a ‘Nigeria’ out of the dominant ethnic nationalities. Several constitutions were made, and several state institutions were created to exert the influence of a state. There was also a uniting vision of getting Nigeria to become an independent country, a rallying ideology for all leaders of the major ethnic nationalities.

    Apart from these uniting tendencies, a chequered history of mistrust, hatred, and suspicion led to pogroms, ethnic clashes, and wanton destruction of lives and properties. The 1960 independence happened under this context of fear and distrust among the ethnic nationalities. Little wonder Nigeria’s civil war killed millions a few years after Independence.

    Since the end of the civil war in 1970, Nigeria has been battling to create a cohesive nation-state with blurred ethnic lines. The Nigerian state has tried to fight nepotism, tribalism, and lack of access to opportunities based on ethnicity. Some of the measures, although created with good intentions, created unintended problems. For instance, creating the Federal Character Principle to give access to opportunities to people from various ethnic backgrounds became counterproductive when meritocracy and value were sacrificed on the altar of equal access in Nigeria. The death of meritocracy in Nigeria due to clannishness, nepotism, and irredentist tendencies has stopped Nigeria from harnessing its best resources for socio-political and economic growth.

    Unfortunately, 63 years from Independence, we have yet to make a significant improvement in managing our diversity well, much more in harnessing it to our advantage. Today, we are still dealing with the issues of dismantling ethnic nationality loyalties and subjecting all allegiances to the Nigerian state. We are brutally confronted with diversity challenges daily in politics, social existence, communal relations, and religious differences. Any little issues of national importance are seen by many from the narrow prism of ethnicity and religion. We are a nation silently at war with ourselves based on ethnic and religious loyalties. The last national elections exemplify this. I must acknowledge that some progress has been made, but recent events show an erosion of this progress. Recent calls for secession, banditry, terrorism activities, farmer-herder crises and communal crises are a few examples of worsening tensions in the union. Prof. Anya, a distinguished Nigerian merit Laureate, has this to say, “We can no longer say with certainty that we have a nation”. Niger Delta leaders, South-Eastern leaders, Middle-Belt leaders, and Northern Elders Forum have not remained quiet.

    The key driver of the challenge of managing our diversity is limited economic opportunities and politics of exclusion. Lack of opportunities or unequal access to opportunities exacerbates feelings of exclusion and anger, especially in a struggling economy. Poverty and greed of the elite combine to divide the nation. Poverty creates an atmosphere of shame and blame and quickly pushes people to resort to divisive ethnic and religious sentiments. And over 130 million Nigerians are multidimensionally poor. Besides, ignorance and illiteracy promote conflict and hinder inclusion. Our greedy elite are comfortable with fantastical corruption that leads to a few siphoning our common patrimony for themselves and their cronies. Any plans to manage our diversity and create inclusion must address poverty and corruption that leads to unequal or no access to opportunities.

    Therefore, we must develop more ways of celebrating our ethnic and cultural diversity. All must resist any tendency to promote cultural superiority. Promoting religious tolerance and understanding is crucial to maintaining peace. Although English is our official language, we must keep the local languages alive. We must ensure that education is accessible to all, regardless of ethnicity, religion, or socio-economic background. We must promote workplace diversity, inclusion, equal opportunities, and fair employee treatment.

    Government must be the critical driver of promoting diversity and inclusion through legislation and policies. Political leaders must aim for equitable representation of diverse groups in government and public institutions and that no one group dominates the rest in government. This has direct political consequences – political leaders must be deliberate in the equitable distribution of infrastructure, resources, political offices, and accommodation of different cultural expressions in our country. Our political leaders need to focus on building trust and creating a culture where everyone feels free to aspire to the best Nigeria can offer them. They play a critical role in managing ethnocultural divisions, gender biases, and most recently, youth bulge. They have a responsibility to create and sustain an inclusive environment for all. Our recent experience shows that the country suffers many mishaps if the political leadership does not manage our diversity and create an inclusive environment.

    Civil society organisations and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) must play a vital role in advocating for diversity and inclusiveness and monitoring and holding the government and private sector accountable for their commitments. And all stakeholders must support initiatives to promote cultural understanding, tolerance, and acceptance to bridge divides.

    Managing diversity and promoting inclusiveness in Nigeria is an ongoing and multifaceted challenge. It requires concerted efforts from the government, civil society, the private sector, and individuals to ensure that all Nigerians, regardless of their background, can participate fully in the country’s social, economic, and political life. Embracing diversity and inclusiveness is a moral imperative and a pathway to a more prosperous and harmonious Nigeria.