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  • Beyond reactive governance – By Dakuku Peterside

    Beyond reactive governance – By Dakuku Peterside

    Last week, The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) issued an alert warning of the high probability of 14 states experiencing heavy rainfall that might lead to flooding. This is not the first time NEMA and Nigerian Hydrological Services Agency (NHSA), through its Annual Flood Outlook (AFO), will issue such alerts, but we keep losing lives and properties to flooding despite early warnings. Our approach and response to such signals have remained reactive. The same last week, the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (NCDC) announced an outbreak of diphtheria in the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). NCDC further informed us that there have been multiple disease outbreaks, including diphtheria, since December 2022, with 33 LGAs in eight states affected. Meanwhile, diphtheria is a vaccine-preventable disease, but our leaders and institutions would prefer to be reactive.

    The problem is not peculiar to NEMA, NHSA, NCDC, the affected states or the likely victims. There is a systemic challenge of our institutions and leaders preferring reactive instead of proactive responses to socio-economic challenges. This is from the highest level of government to the least of our public institutions. We are permanently reactive in our approach to governance, suffering devastating consequences before belatedly putting on our thinking caps.

    Reactive governance refers to a mode of governance that primarily responds to immediate and pressing issues that arise without sufficient long-term planning or proactive measures. This anomaly is the predominant habit of governance in our country. We tend to sit and wait for foreseeable disasters to consume us before responding. Most of what we treat as emergencies do not qualify. They are avoidable incidents that should not catch any responsible government by surprise.

    The source of our reactive approach is a tradition of governance. We emphasise ‘acting’ over and above ‘thinking’ through problems on a long-term basis. Issues like flood disaster prediction, epidemic prevention, speculative vaccine production, and power outage prevention are all ways of avoiding disasters that are sure to occur.

    This reactive approach to socio-economic challenges falls within the “reactive state “concept. Two essential characteristics of the reactive state are: first, institutions fail to undertake initiatives to prevent the occurrence of an undesirable event though it has the power and incentive to do so; second, such institutions respond to pressure for change in an erratic and unsystematic manner.

    In Nigeria, this reactive state approach naturally flows because it benefits operatives of the system, and our urgency index is high. Manifestations of this reactive state can be seen in our policy approaches to Boko Haram, banditry, kidnapping, oil theft in the Niger Delta and other security incidents.

    Further instances demonstrate these cultural-cum-historical reactive approaches to national problems than a proactive and systematic long-term approach seen in the most developed worlds. Nigeria has faced various security challenges, including terrorism, insurgency, and communal clashes. In some instances, the government’s response has been primarily reactive, with the deployment of security forces after attacks have occurred rather than proactively addressing the root causes of these issues through intelligence gathering, preventive measures, and community engagement.

    Nigeria’s infrastructure, including roads, power supply, and public transportation, has been a subject of concern for many years. Often, the government has taken a reactive approach to address these deficiencies by initiating projects and repairs in response to public outcry or when critical failures occur rather than proactively investing in infrastructure development and maintenance.

    Nigeria’s economy has traditionally been heavily reliant on oil exports, making it susceptible to fluctuations in global oil prices. Reactive governance is evident in the government’s response to oil price shocks, which often involves scrambling to adjust the budget, implement austerity measures, or seek external loans to address revenue shortfalls instead of proactively diversifying the economy and reducing dependence on oil.

    Besides, Nigeria faces challenges in its education sector, including inadequate infrastructure, outdated curricula, and low educational outcomes. The government’s approach has often been reactive, responding to issues as they arise rather than proactively investing in education reforms, teacher training, curriculum development, and infrastructure improvements to ensure quality education for all.

    Corruption has been a persistent issue in Nigeria, affecting various sectors and hindering development. Reactive governance is evident in the government’s response to corruption scandals, which often involves investigations, prosecutions, and public outcry after the fact, rather than implementing proactive measures to prevent corruption, strengthen anti-corruption institutions, and promote transparency and accountability.

    In the developed world, there is a great emphasis on thought in governance. This is why Washington is full of think tanks whose only business is to think through and develop long-term solutions to possible national problems. Government Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) sometimes collaborate actively with universities and research institutes to work out long-term solutions in anticipation. In most of Europe and Asia, government departments have research departments staffed by some of the best brains trained to conduct anticipatory research and study different problems in relevant areas.

    The best approach has proven to be leaders and institutions that adopt proactive decision-making. It is cheaper to be proactive than to be reactive. Being proactive saves lives. By its futuristic estimation, China knows that Africa is the future market; hence, it invests heavily in teaching Africans the Chinese language.

    Being reactive often comes with disastrous consequences. One significant adverse result of reactive governance is the populace’s permanent sense of uncertainty. People are unsure that what may come next will not consume them. A sense of collective vulnerability weakens people’s trust in government. People are left with a sense of self-help, of everyone to themselves. In cases of natural disaster, recourse to superstition becomes the only and last resort. People must choose between trust in government and belief in divine salvation. Prophesies of doom acquire legitimacy and find a ready market.

    When governance is not informed by rational and scientific projection, the future becomes a dark zone of uncertainty and the abode of the unknown. Fear and cynicism take hold of the hearts of citizens.

    A major reason why we are so reactive is that we need to have respect for science and data. Data-driven policies enable policymakers to identify trends, anticipate problems, and develop targeted interventions before they escalate into crises. Nigeria must prioritise sustainable development practices that balance economic growth with environmental and social considerations. This includes promoting renewable energy, implementing sound environmental policies, and adopting responsible resource management practices. A proactive approach to sustainability can help mitigate environmental degradation, address climate change challenges, and promote social equity.

    To move beyond reactive governance in Nigeria, adopting a proactive approach that focuses on long-term planning, anticipates challenges, and promotes sustainable development is important. Some key areas that could contribute to this shift are detailed below.

    The Nigerian government should emphasise the formulation and implementation of long-term strategic plans. This involves setting clear goals, identifying potential risks and opportunities, and developing strategies to address them. Strategic planning enables proactive decision-making and reduces the need for reactive measures.

    It is crucial to strengthen the institutions responsible for governance in Nigeria, including the judiciary, legislature, and civil service. This involves enhancing their human and institutional capacity, improving transparency and accountability, and reducing political interference. Strong institutions are better equipped to anticipate and address issues before crises occur.

    In addition, active citizen participation is vital for effective governance. Governments should promote transparency, engage citizens in decision-making processes, and establish mechanisms for feedback and accountability. This helps identify problems early on, encourages citizen ownership, and fosters a sense of responsibility among the populace.

    Furthermore, proactive governance relies on accurate and timely information. Governments should invest in data collection, analysis, and utilisation to inform decision-making processes. Departments of Research and Planning cannot be a dumping ground or a place of punishment for public servants that have fallen out of favour. It should rather be the hub of policymaking and designing solutions to challenges. Let the best brains man this critical department. We should collaborate with our research institutions where there are obvious capacity gaps.

    Our leaders and managers of institutions always want to profit from disasters. Even at the policy level, the equation often favours a reactive than a proactive approach. With newly elected officials at all levels, we need to switch from reactive to proactive ways of dealing with issues of national and global importance.

    It is important to note that while these examples used above highlight instances of reactive governance, they do not encompass the entirety of governance in Nigeria. Nigeria has also witnessed proactive initiatives and policies in various areas, but there is room for further improvement in adopting a proactive approach to governance to address long-term challenges effectively.

    Moving beyond reactive governance in Nigeria requires a shift in mindset, focusing on critical thinking over “doing”, long-term planning, and strengthening institutions and citizen engagement. By adopting a proactive approach, Nigeria can better anticipate and address challenges, promote sustainable development, and improve the well-being of its citizens.

    This new administration is poised to do great things, and its starting point should be to prioritise the shift from the dominant leadership mentality of reactive governance to a proactive one. The administration must be intentional and proactive in solving Nigeria’s myriads of problems and rely on evidence and scientific approaches than the traditional path dependency that has characterised our governance in the past.

    The lack of ability to solve major issues in Nigeria is not often because of a lack of resources but because of a lack of proactively planning and adopting creative and innovative solutions. Our leaders must adopt new approaches to doing things if they must succeed. Remember that you cannot do the same thing and expect a different result. Input determines output – garbage in, garbage out is the computer language. That is true about input and output in problem-solving.

  • Sustaining the momentum of hope – By Dakuku Peterside

    Sustaining the momentum of hope – By Dakuku Peterside

    Every new marriage comes with some level of excitement. This may be due to love, lust, anticipation, or newness. The everyday drudgery of living together and following the routines of life stifles excitement, and soon realities of marriage dawn on the couples. Suddenly, the marriage mates that were madly in love before and immediately after the marriage begin to face “tribulation in the flesh”. The excitement wears off if we do not make a deliberate effort to sustain it.

    Marriage requires much conscious effort for the excitement and joy to last. President Bola Tinubu, by design or accident, has sparked this feeling of excitement and hope in Nigerians. He has made consequential decisions that may bring sustainable results in the long term but pains in the short term, yet Nigerians have accepted it. The international community hails the President and is rightly expectant.

    The flicker of hope and excitement which the President has ignited rests on three legs: first, the major policy choices and decisions reflect much anticipated national priorities; Second, the activity pace of the new President, as I pointed out in this column last week, is faster than the previous eight years. Third, the national spread of appointments made so far reflects our national diversity. For now, the optimism is a function of its departure from the Buhari era’s pace, content and direction.

    Unfortunately, but factual, some of these policy choices and decisions may inflict short-term pains on the citizens. Electricity tariff will go up from July 1, petrol subsidy is gone, with the likelihood of skyrocketing inflation in an already adverse inflation regime. Dual foreign exchange rascality is in check, and those who benefited from it are not fighting back yet, and the reality is that new imports will reflect the current value of the Naira and will add to inflationary pressures. Students loan scheme means tertiary education tuition will most likely go up, so students will pay something close to the actual value of obtaining an education. These cannot be good news for Nigerians in ordinary times, but excitement is in the air because we are in a new marriage.

    Nigerians know there are no quick fixes, so they are patient with the President, believing that their new husband, Mr President, is acting out of love and knows what he is doing to fix a broken system. This marriage is anchored on a renewed hope for a better Nigeria, and to sustain this hope, Nigerians must share the vision of Mr President and clearly understand where he is taking Nigeria. No matter the excruciating pain of Mr President’s new policies in the short run, if he makes a deliberate effort to carry the nation along and keep their hope burning ever bright, they will continue to understand, at least. But this cannot be for too long.

    In a few months, the amorous love affair between Nigerians and Mr President will start facing the test of time. The goodwill Mr President is enjoying will begin to wane, and the reality of dealing with the enormous challenges of Nigeria and the complexities and intricacies of managing a behemoth, Nigeria, will confront Mr President. Therefore, there is a need to sustain this momentum of hope and at least deliberately work to extend the excitement of these early times.

    To sustain this momentum of hope, Mr president must do long-range planning and be deliberate not to inflict further short-term pains on Nigerians. He needs to acquire elite acceptability and popular acclaim quickly. First, he needs policies that renew and strengthen the middle class. Second, he must alleviate the consequences of tough economic choices in the areas that touch the masses: food, health, education, and transportation. Managing the immediate fallout of the excellent policies Mr president churned out in his first month in office is crucial. The new relationship between Mr President and Nigerians is formed at this crucible. But a few factors will shape this new phase of the government, and Mr president must pay attention to them.

    Beyond creating policies that will quickly alleviate the pain of the masses due to recent policy choices, Mr President needs a cabinet that will give Nigerians hope – a cabinet of competent people with character who can deliver on urgent national priorities! He has a choice in the composition of his cabinet, either a development team, a political team, or a mix of both. A development team will advance the course of the President; a political team will dissipate the President’s energies on political manipulation. A balanced or mixed team can achieve developmental goals and political rightness without compromising results and value addition.

    The President’s cabinet is like a gathering of medical doctors and health experts to cure sick Nigeria. It is crucial that Nigerians, like the wife in the marriage, must trust the competence and abilities of the team to fix sick Nigeria. Therefore, the competence and character of the President’s cabinet will animate hope in Nigeria in the coming days. Nigerians must see the vitality, vibrancy, and intellectual dexterity of new cabinet members and believe they are the right team for embarking on serious surgical operations in sick Nigeria.

    Nigerians are victims of failed promises and dashed hopes in the past. Their patience is very slim, and they can quickly and easily lose it without seeing results. Promises and rhetoric no longer bamboozle Nigerians of today, and social media platforms have democratised opinion and given access to voices that are critical and hard to manage. Mr President must build a popular base by addressing hunger and poverty in the short term, at least to alleviate the pain of the majority, while creating medium- and long-term programmes that will improve the living standards of many Nigerians.

    Providing the basics – affordable food, excellent and affordable medical care, and sound and affordable education, is what most Nigerians are expecting the government to do. Inflation is execrating and exacerbating and throwing millions of Nigerians into multi-dimensional poverty. Efforts towards stemming the tides of poverty and food insecurity will help sustain the hope of Nigerians in this government.

    Mr President must build elite consensus on the country’s direction, acknowledging that the elite is part of the country’s problem. The rentier system that has been in place in Nigeria favours the elite class, and the President must convince them to join him in building a system that is against their narrow self-interest. There is no gainsaying that the Nigerian elite has had a strangling hold on Nigeria, and it is time it stopped. Mr President must fight against the morally bankrupt elitism of Nigeria and build a consensus to salvage Nigeria. The President’s body language and actions must always show that change has come, and it is not business as usual.

    Furthermore, our President should be considering the practical steps beyond the usual rhetoric he will take to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to ramp up opportunities for job creation and mitigate unemployment. The inflow from foreign direct investment impacts the exchange rate and the value of the Naira. Mr President, the liberalisation of the monetary regime and unification of exchange rates has created an enabling environment for the inflow of FDI, and this must start happening fast to cushion the supply dynamics of the Dollar and stop the eroding of the value of the Naira that will dissipate the import-oriented economy we have.

    President Bola Ahmed Tinubu must lead Nigeria towards greater productivity, which must be at the core of his economic agenda. Nigeria’s economy can only grow if we increase our productivity. The President must tackle the challenges impeding productivity, such as power problems, insecurity, a stifling business environment, and poor investment in science and technology. No magic wand can bring Nigeria out of its current economic quagmire. It must produce more goods and services for consumption locally and export. Productivity increases our GDP, strengthens our economy, and improves Nigerians’ living standards. Through his actions and policies, the President must show Nigerians that he is pro-productivity and laying the foundation for an industrialised Nigeria that will be the industrial hub of sub-Saharan Africa.

    A further critical indicator of widespread acceptance would be how quickly Mr President restores peace and security throughout the country. The public must see and feel an innovative approach to internal security. Kidnapping, school abductions, assassinations, secessionist clamour, and herders vs farmers clashes must end or significantly abate. How the President quickly stems corruption, creates an enabling environment that enhances service delivery, and ensures insecurity in the next 12 months will define his Presidency.

    Sustaining the momentum of hope in Nigeria is not just the work of Mr President but requires collective efforts from various stakeholders, including the government, civil society organisations, communities, and individuals. However, the President is the father of the country and must provide leadership in fostering hope and positive change in Nigeria.

    To instil and maintain hope in Nigeria, the President must work towards ensuring transparent, accountable, and effective governance, fostering sustainable economic growth, reducing poverty, investing in education and skills development, developing, and maintaining robust social infrastructure, empowering young people and women, building strong and empowered communities, and cultivating international collaboration and partnerships.

    Many marriages go on to last a lifetime. In successful marriages, the marriage mates build mechanisms for renewing their love, hopes and excitement. Mr President is an experienced married man. He understands his new marriage with Nigeria and will navigate the multiple nuances of this new relationship. However, what he does in the next few months will define the character and legacy of his Presidency.

  • Anatomy of presidential engagement – By Dakuku Peterside

    Anatomy of presidential engagement – By Dakuku Peterside

    In the sphere of presidential engagement and communication, Nigeria has had different shades of Presidents, from the docile and absent, laidback, garrison-style communication, taciturn, to the pragmatic. Each shade created the mood and tone of the presidency and invariably impacted the quality of leadership the presidency exhibited. Although not ascribing to or recommending any shade of communication and engagement for the presidency, I understand the importance of effective communication and engagement of the President to all citizens and stakeholders of Project Nigeria.

    In a republican democracy, the primary assumption is that the President is, first and foremost, a fellow citizen. Therefore, consistent engagement with citizens, interest groups and special interests is axiomatic. The challenge is that we are yet to accept that ability to engage effectively with our constituents is a critical function of leadership. Our Leaders are used to giving orders only and not listening to the people or explaining why they must make some decisions. The implication is that we have had rulers and not necessarily leaders.

    Arguably, the most critical skill needed by a leader is his ability to communicate effectively with citizens, sectoral groups and structured interest groups  to pursue a specific agenda. In a short period, we have witnessed significant changes in presidential engagement. And this is bearing fruit in citizens’ responses.  International media and international community are taking note. On this score, the President is on firm ground and needs to be encouraged. This is where President Tinubu’s early steps of continuous engagement with diverse stakeholders deserve interrogation.

    In the first 21 days of the Bola Ahmed presidency, he has met with at least 50 citizens and 20 stakeholder groups. The citizens  and groups are as diverse as Nigeria’s divergent sectors and sections. Some of these engagements have led to the defusion  of tension, such as with fuel subsidy removal, explaining contentious issues as we had in the foreign exchange unification or giving insight into presidential actions like the student loan bill. The President has engaged with ex-militants and Niger Delta leaders like Asari Dokubo, Timi Alaibe, Former Emir of Kano and first-rate Economist Sanusi L Sanusi, Billionaire Aliko Dangote,  opposition politician Rabiu  Kwankwaso ,ex-presidents Goodluck Jonathan and Abdulsalam Abubakar, G-5 “PDP” Governors, fiery lawyer Femi Falana, labour leaders Joe  Ajaero and Festus Osifo, Sultan of Sokoto, Oni of Ife and other traditional rulers, among several others.

    The  engagement with Asari Dokubo may have unsettled some presidency watchers . The argument they have against it is that legitimate state does not engage openly with non state actors who seize the platform to denigrate strategic state institutions like the armed and security forces no matter their deficits. However there is  still value in that engagement.

    President Tinubu’s style is a refreshing and decisive departure from the style and disposition of his immediate predecessor. He has shown  a remarkable ability to listen and consult widely .The account of Khalifa Sanusi Lamido Sanusi that he listens attentively, grasps the core issues communicated to him, tries to make sense of these issues, internalises the significant points raised and responds appropriately is relevant . Yours truly can confirm it as the truth.

    For insight , Nigeria is a democratic country, and the principles of democracy emphasise the inclusion of citizens in decision-making processes. Listening to citizens and stakeholders ensures their voices are heard and considered when formulating policies and making important decisions. Outlining his presidential philosophy during his inauguration speech, the President was emphatic that he would be a servant leader and not a ruler, emphasising the importance of listening to and engaging with the citizens at various times to feel their pulse, understand their views, dreams, and aspirations, and making decisions that will help actualise his vision for Nigeria and reflect the broader interests of the nation.

    Second, engaging with citizens and multiple stakeholders fosters transparency and accountability in governance. By listening to the concerns and feedback of the people, the President can address their grievances, respond to their needs, and explain the rationale behind governmental actions. This helps build trust between the government and the citizens and enhances transparency in decision-making processes. We are a country with a rich cultural, ethnic, religious, and socioeconomic diversity.

    Third, by listening to the concerns of different stakeholders, the President identifies potential conflicts early on and works towards peaceful resolutions. The way the President handled the labour negotiation that led to a quick resolution and how he listened and explained the issue of unification of the exchange rates give ample proof of the efficacy of his communication style . Open dialogue and inclusive decision-making can help prevent or mitigate social unrest and promote national unity. These engagements with multiple stakeholders bring diverse expertise, experiences, and knowledge to the table, which can contribute to the formulation of more effective and well-rounded policies. This can lead to better outcomes and solutions for the country’s challenges.

    We may wonder why President BAT’s continuous engagement and communication with citizens, stakeholders and other special interests deserve close observation. Let us examine three significant reasons.

    Undoubtedly, our multi-party general elections produced a president with just about 36% of the voters voting for him and the rest for the other parties. The president understands there was a need for building consensus quickly in his presidency to bring everybody together and lead Nigeria not as an APC president but as the President of Nigeria. This  constant engagement is even more crucial at this stage because he does not have a cabinet yet, so it falls on him to make the engagements and decisions and communicate them. This level of engagement may reduce a bit when his full cabinet is in full swing.

    The second reason is that the President uses the opportunity to familiarise himself with different issues and perspectives. This allows the President to stay attuned to the evolving concerns and priorities of the people. By actively listening to citizens and stakeholders, the President can identify emerging challenges and respond effectively with policies that address current needs. It is an avenue for feedback on government policies and programmes. The President gains diverse insights and expertise by engaging with different stakeholders, including civil society organisations, community leaders, business leaders, and experts. This information helps him make well-informed decisions considering multiple viewpoints and potential impacts.

    The next  likely reason for BAT’s engagement is that not only is he a natural engager , as seen in his style of politics and governance, but he also has a keen interest in giving citizens insight into how critical decisions were arrived at. This opportunity to explain these decisions and their likely impacts affords President BAT more reasons to engage and get the citizen’s buy-in into his programmes, especially in preparing the citizens for the road ahead. Regular interaction allows the President to assess the impact of existing initiatives and make necessary adjustments or improvements. This feedback loop ensures that governance remains responsive and accountable to the people it serves.

    The last reason may be that the President wants to build trust, make informed decisions, mobilise resources, prevent conflicts, and promote social cohesion. This is an essential component of effective and inclusive governance that is people-oriented and focuses on policies and projects that serve the people’s interests. Hence, the President’s constant desire to listen, decide and communicate effectively. This has made BAT’S policy direction so evident to all.

    Some significant milestones have been achieved in just 21 days: Oil subsidy is gone; major labour crisis averted; student loan bill signed into law; exchange rate harmonised; house cleaning is ongoing; new electricity bill signed into law; Data protection bill signed into law; building consensus and unifying Nigeria; and wooing foreign investors. These are early days so no objective assessment of his presidency can be done.

    Building Nigeria is more than just a job for Mr President. All Nigerians must play their part. However, he has shown outstanding leadership in these early days that is worthy of emulation by leaders in the state and local governments. They must adopt the servant leader approach, build consensus, and engage with all stakeholders in their states and LGAs. Developing Nigeria requires growth at the grassroots.

    Failure of the state governors and LGA chairpersons will mock the federal government’s efforts, even with the best policy interventions in place. It is time that governors and LGA chairpersons stop being little emperors, come off their high horses, and serve their people. The difference between good governors and LGA chairpersons and bad ones is seen in the level of development, both infrastructural and human capital development, in these states and LGAs.

    There is no doubt that President BAT has hit the ground running as he promised. We commend his leadership and look forward to more achievements from his administration in the days ahead. We also implore other leaders at all levels to embrace stakeholder engagement and communication as practical tools for good leadership.

    The quality of President BAT’s cabinet, we hope, will reflect his deep conviction in quality leadership and the leaders he appoints will continue to build on the momentum he has created in these first few days. Quality leaders create quality leadership, which then creates development. We are full of optimism and hope for what lies ahead for Nigeria. We must all stand together, support his vision, and help build a great nation.

  • Restoring the spirit of June 12 – By Dakuku Peterside 

    Restoring the spirit of June 12 – By Dakuku Peterside 

    Democracy is taken for granted as the best form of government. At least the West told us so. We have also accepted it by default. We have tried multiple facets of democratic systems – parliamentary and presidential systems, two-party and multi-party systems – and some are arguing we have a bespoke democracy that is uniquely Nigerian. Homegrown in every shape!! It gives us a sense of participation. It allows for fair representation, and many argue that the representation is not yet wholly free. But whatever and whichever form of democracy a nation elects to practice, the ultimate objective is freedom, law, and order, and to deliver public goods, in my view. Nigerians expect and deserve nothing less.

    Since Nigeria’s Independence in 1960, she has gone through three dominant democratic interregnums and a few quasi-democratic experiences. Nigeria has witnessed a blend of militarism and democratic tenets of voting and some representation. This 4th Republic democratic dispensation is significant because it has lasted for 24 uninterrupted years. That stable, we can comfortably argue that our democracy is no longer a baby but attained teenage at least. Thus, our democratic journey calls for introspection and a critical review of the structures and processes in order to identify inherent weaknesses and strengths to correct and reinforce respectively.

    Truth is, the nation laid the foundation of our current democracy on June 12, 1993. On that day and season, we established the elements of legitimate democracy. The election, widely regarded as one of Nigeria’s freest and fairest, became the symbol of democracy in Nigeria and offered hope that Nigeria could hold a free, fair, and rancour-free election.

    The critical elements of that election made it unique in all ramifications: Free and fair electoral process; and a two-party system. The choice was binary (for either SDP or NRC), which promoted real competition. Though achieved by an unelected military regime with an outspoken professor of Political Science, Humphrey Nwosu, as midwife heading the arguably independent electoral Commission, the security apparatus of State was manifestly impartial; citizen participation was intense, and their trust in the system was high enough. Besides, citizens guarded the process and owned it. Voting was unhindered while collation and tabulation of results were open and transparent. Money played a minimal role in electoral choices. The outcome of that election blurred north-south division and muslim-christain dichotomy.

    Sadly, these elements, commendable as they were, could not stop the doom that the election faced in the long run. This is the reason the dashing of that national hope and the momentum gained in our march to democracy with the annulment of the June 12, 1993, presidential election in Nigeria remains a significant event in the country’s political history. It would remain so for years unend. The military government annulled the national unity election, thereby depriving the winner, Chief Moshood Abiola, the fulfillment of assuming office as President and Commander-in-Chief.

    Beyond Abiola, the annulment of June 12 had far-reaching consequences for Nigeria’s democracy. Amongst others, it fractured the national fabric but we mended fences in 1999; it led to years of political instability and disillusionment. Nigeria has struggled to hit that altitude of electoral performance ever since! Therefore, restoring the spirit of Nigeria’s democracy after the June 12 annulment requires a multifaceted approach that addresses both immediate and long-term challenges. Even though Nigeria is still learning to improve her electoral democracy, it is clear that we learnt from that annulment experience. We appear to have made significant progress since June 12. So significant, the immediate past Administration of President Muhammadu Buhari in yielding to national conscience renamed June 12 as our nation’s Democracy Day instead of the May 29 day for transition of power from one democratically elected Government to another. However and sadly so, whenever we move two steps forward, some forces pull us another step backwards. This pattern is becoming established.

    Our democracy has made significant progress in some areas, and I will focus on four major areas.

    First, we have been holding periodic elections, no matter how imperfect they are, since 1999. This has led to electoral representation at all levels. Representative democracy has been established though no entrenchment of a democratic culture. Also, Nigeria witnessed for the first time in its history that an opposition party won a general election in 2015. Thirdly, we have established freedom of expression owing to a robust and resilient media. Evidence is found at least in the mainstream media, civil society, and social media spaces. But we have also experienced at various times governments at the Federal and State levels impinge on the rights of Twitter users and some broadcast stations to express their voices freely and responsibly on various contentious issues in the country through deployment of coercive institutions. Happily however, this censorship has not been a constant feature of the government.

    The fourth is that we have put all necessary institutions of the State in place. These democratic institutions are the instrumentality for delivering State functions. Nevertheless, these institutions are weak and fail most of the time to deliver on their mandate. They are often captured by State actors and used to perpetuate actors’ hegemony on fragile people. Nigeria’s democratic conundrum is an aberration in the sense that it has strong actors and weak institutions. This has allowed for State capture by these influential actors. We need to strengthen these four crucial areas to reap the full benefit of democracy.

    First, the Nigerian brand of democracy must be transformed. A democracy that has failed to translate to governance success must be recalibrated. The indicators are there. From widening poverty, ignorance to insecurity. Most citizens do not have access to basic things of life. This itself constitutes a threat to democracy. Second, Nigerian democracy has failed to provide most citizens with basic physical, social, economic, and psychological security. This has untold implications because protecting the citizens and Nigeria’s territorial integrity is the State’s primary function. Insecurity has caused the loss of many lives and property, destroyed economic activities and potential in many parts of the country, especially in the ungoverned areas.

    Third, the State has failed to engender respect for law, order, and equality of persons before the law. Thus, there remains in our country’s democracy a derogation of the rule of law as a fundamental principle of democracy. The rule of law simply means that the law rules supreme; no one is above the law no matter their status in society and the law is no respecter of persons. In some instances, the law has been trampled upon by influential individuals and entrenched interests within society with impunity. Fourth, the weak institutions of the State set up to enforce democracy: the Judiciary, INEC, Law enforcement agencies as public accountability framework have wreaked havoc on the system. We must strengthen these institutions to fulfil their mandate to the people and the State or our democracy would remain imperiled.

    As we forge on with our democracy, we must pause and reflect on the lessons we must learn from our June 12 experience. June 12 gave us a significant leap towards legitimate democracy. However, it would be unconscionable not to admit that we have also taken some steps backwards where same was avoidable.

    The celebration of democracy day today should afford us the opportunity for sober reflection on the state of our democratic journey and the urgent need to identify reforms that could strengthen democracy. The important lessons we must learn from June 12 are outlined below.
    The first lesson is the Importance of Free and Fair Elections. The June 12 election underscored the significance of conducting free and fair elections. It demonstrated that when the will of the people is disregarded, it can lead to social and political unrest. The lesson here is that governments must ensure transparent electoral processes that reflect the genuine choice and will of the people. The second lesson is the importance of accountability and transparency in governance. The lack of transparency surrounding the annulment process created suspicion and eroded public trust. Leaders must be accountable to the people and ensure transparency in their actions and decision-making processes. Trust builds confidence, legitimacy, and unity. The third is the power of civic engagement and activism. The June 12 election and its aftermath witnessed significant civic engagement and activism by the Nigerian people. It highlighted the power of citizens to advocate for their rights and demand accountability from their leaders. The lesson is that active civic participation is essential for developing and preserving a stable democracy. The next lesson is managing ethnic diversity and political pluralism. Leaders must work towards fostering national unity, promoting dialogue, and finding common ground to prevent the escalation of our undeniable fault lines.

    Furthermore, we must learn to build strong democratic institutions. The June 12 event revealed the weaknesses in Nigeria’s democratic institutions, particularly the electoral and judicial systems. It underscored the need for building and strengthening institutions that can withstand political pressures and ensure the integrity of democratic processes. Even 30 years after the June 12 debacle, Nigeria still struggles with weak institutions. This new administration must work to correct this anomaly.

    Finally, the June 12 annulment showed the importance of upholding democratic values such as freedom of expression, association, and the right to vote. These values are fundamental to a functioning democracy and should be protected and promoted. Leaders and institutions must be committed to safeguarding democratic principles.
    June 12 serves as a reminder that nations should learn from their history to avoid repeating past mistakes. It is crucial to reflect on the lessons from such events and take proactive measures to safeguard democracy and prevent similar situations. It is crucial to reflect on the lessons from such events and take proactive measures to safeguard democracy and prevent similar situations.

    Restoring the spirit of Nigeria’s democracy after the June 12 annulment is a long-term endeavour that requires sustained efforts from both the government and the Nigerian people. It demands a commitment to democratic values, active citizen participation and a collective determination to build a more inclusive Nigeria. Now is the time to promote good governance, fight corruption, foster national reconciliation, enhance freedom of speech and conscience, strengthen democratic institutions, encourage citizen participation and engagement as well as ensure further electoral reforms to consolidate on the progress made thus far as we work to deepen our democracy. The signs we see from this new government suggest that we have a government that may push Nigeria forward. The actions of the government in the right direction in the few months to come will surely lay the foundations of a more robust, better democracy. This is wishing our dear country a Happy Democracy Day.

  • Sub-nationals: The bumpy road ahead – By Dakuku Peterside

    Sub-nationals: The bumpy road ahead – By Dakuku Peterside

    Last week I listened to or read the speech of at least a dozen newly elected governors, and I must confess they were full of hazard warning signs ahead. Citizens have only one option – brace up before going on a roller coaster ride at the sub-national level worse than they experienced in the last eight years. I estimate that about 80% of the inauguration speeches of the dozen newly elected state governors I listened to were uninspiring, and none captured the changing demographics of the states, how to harness new technologies, potential impacts of new federal legislation, prevailing and persistent challenges faced by the people, innovativeness and original thinking that should define the road ahead for sub-national governments at this time.

    Apart from a few that dealt with anything meaningful,  most new governors spent half of the time praising their predecessors, who at best had disgraceful legacies , with a commitment to continue the same purposeless and rudderless path. Worse still, they did not  bother addressing some of the states’ most pressing challenges. I will list a few common to most states – high debt profile, too many unviable and uncompleted projects, low internally generated revenue, poorly equipped and demotivated civil service, humongous outstanding salary commitments, challenging security situation and the dearth of social services.

    The commitment of loyalty expressed to their predecessors and not the state is a new development peculiar to our democracy. It may be traced to the absolute power conferred on them by the 1999 constitution, and as far back as 2004, the Financial Times of London  identified the overbearing influence of Governors as the root of poor governance at the subnational levels. Governors, who are chief executives at the subnational level, act as emperors. They quickly appropriate the state legislature, and the judiciary is often at their mercy. In practice, they have made the legislative arm an extension of various state government houses. These subnational strongmen rule without checks and balances, no transparency , and no accountability, as they are above the law and enjoy endless immunity. The democratic checks and balances in our constitution are stronger at the federal than the state level . This lax has allowed governors to operate like lawless brigands.

    A typical pattern in 2023 is that of the 18 newly elected Governors, as many as 11 or 12 of them were selected and sponsored by outgoing governors. Selecting, not electing, and sponsoring preferred candidates to become governors may not be the worst offence against the people, but the quality of governors and governance keep depreciating. Institutions of democracy are also weakened or captured, and accountability to the people disappears in favour of “accountability” to the new godfathers – former governors. The phenomenon of state capture by outgone and former governors is present and real and constitutes a danger to the development and aspiration of the people. The new godfathers will definitely become virtual remote-control emperors of the state.

    The challenge before us now, with new godfathers in town and new governors who owe them loyalty plus an assembly of handpicked Oh- yes-men, is how do we hold our new governors accountable? How do we ensure budgets are made for the people, not the new godfathers? How do we guarantee that citizens enjoy services rather than state governments serving outgone governors and new godfathers? This is a new phase in our nascent democratic journey, and it is a challenge worth giving attention to if you go by fiscal development in our various states.

    A report by the Guardian newspaper of 17 April 2023 shows that of the 18 governors that have completed their constitutionally allowed two tenures plus Bello Matawalle of Zamfara, who could not secure re- election, will pass on a whopping over N3.2 trillion debt to the new state handlers. Overall, the affected 18 sub-national entities’ debts rose 232 per cent, from N947.4 billion outstanding in December 2014 – a few months before the outgoing state chiefs took the reins. The amount owed to local and foreign institutions and individuals has ballooned by N2.16 trillion to hit N3.1 trillion at the close of last year. This is a bobby trap number one for the incoming governors. Aside from this debt exposure, most of which we cannot account for their applications, are outstanding salaries, pension and gratuity issues running into few trillions at the subnational level.

    It is a no-brainer that the road ahead for the new state governors in Nigeria is filled with challenges and opportunities. The many difficulties will require a strategic and focused governor to tackle and overcome these challenges. Unfortunately , very few governors seem prepared with knowledge about their states let alone strategies for developing them as revenue generating and social service centers. It is no time to make excuses about these challenges because the governors knew about them before vying for the office of the governor, and most campaigned on these challenges and have fanciful solutions for them in their campaign communications and manifestos. It is time to walk the talk. These challenges are not insurmountable, but they require these governors to think deeply, out of the box, be creative and be innovative to solve them. It requires a total commitment to serve the people and not tolerate much interference from any overbearing former governor or godfathers.

    Accountability to the people and developing people-centric policies and programmes must be the guiding principles of the new governors. Time is transient and waits for no man. Four years may seem a long time, but they should ask their predecessors how their time flew past – those eight years of tenure blew past as if it started yesterday. They must learn from that. The time to plan, execute and evaluate is now, not tomorrow. The governors should adopt bespoke approaches to solving the state’s problems and bringing about developments that will positively touch citizens’ lives. This is not a time to witch hunt or fight ephemeral battles that will only force governors to lose focus on more important things.

    I will articulate some key areas that state governors should focus on to drive development and improve governance. Most Nigerians know these must be done to improve the state; however, the problem is in the desire and ability of the governors to implement these ideas.

    Economic diversification is crucial for each state. Many Nigerian states heavily rely on money from the federal government based on oil revenues, making them vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices. State governments should prioritize economic diversification by promoting sectors such as agriculture, solid minerals, manufacturing, tourism, and technology. This will help create jobs, boost revenue generation, and reduce dependence on oil.

    State governments must explore innovative ways to generate revenue and reduce dependence on federal allocations. This can be achieved through tax reforms, improving revenue collection systems, exploring public-private partnerships, and attracting private investments. Additionally, state governments should adopt fiscal discipline by prudently managing resources, reducing wasteful spending, and implementing adequate budgetary controls.

    Infrastructure development lays the foundation for a better quality of living for citizens. Improving infrastructure is crucial for economic growth and social development. State governments should invest in constructing and maintaining roads, bridges, airports (seaports and railways in collaboration with FG), power plants, and telecommunications networks. This will enhance connectivity, attract investors, and facilitate trade and commerce. However, there is no need to embark on white-elephant projects that will have little or no benefit for the state. State governments must complete already started projects by the former governments and build on what is on the ground rather than abandoning old projects to start new projects. We should stop the public eyesores abandoned projects have become in many states.

    Improving Education and Healthcare lays the foundation needed for development. Investing in education and healthcare is essential for human capital development. State governments should prioritize improving the quality of education by upgrading school facilities, training teachers, and promoting vocational and technical skills. Similarly, healthcare systems need to be strengthened by building more hospitals, improving access to quality healthcare services, and investing in healthcare professionals.

    Agriculture is a crucial sector in Nigeria, and state governments should prioritize agricultural development to ensure food security and reduce dependence on food imports. They can support farmers by providing access to credit, modern farming techniques, improved seeds, and irrigation facilities. Additionally, state governments should invest in agro-processing industries to add value to agricultural products and create employment opportunities.

    Transparency, accountability, and the fight against corruption are critical for effective governance. Unfortunately , states constitutes the weakest link in this respect . State governments should promote good governance practices, establish anti-corruption agencies, implement public financial management reforms, and encourage citizen participation in decision-making. This will help build trust, enhance service delivery, and attract investments.

    Ensuring the safety and security of citizens is paramount for socio- economic development. State governments should work closely with federal security agencies to combat criminal activities. They should invest in equipping and training security personnel, strengthening intelligence gathering, and promoting community policing.

    Collaboration and synergy among neighbouring states can lead to shared development and enhanced regional competitiveness. State governments should explore opportunities for collaboration and cooperation in areas such as transportation, infrastructure development, security, and economic integration. This can be achieved through regional development commissions, joint projects, and policy harmonization.

    Embracing technology and promoting innovation can drive development and improve service delivery. State governments should invest in digital infrastructure, promote e-governance, and encourage technology startups and entrepreneurship. This will enhance efficiency, transparency, and citizen engagement.

    Overall, the road ahead for state governments in Nigeria requires strong leadership, effective governance, and a commitment to inclusive and sustainable development. By addressing these key areas, state governments can contribute significantly to the overall progress and prosperity of the country. Governors must roll their sleeves and deliver service.

  • It’s the dawn of a new era – By Dakuku Peterside

    It’s the dawn of a new era – By Dakuku Peterside

    Nigerians will pause today for the inauguration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Kashim Shettima as President and Vice President of the country, respectively. It will mark the end of one era, the Buhari-Osinbajo era, and the beginning of a new era.

    There are understandably mixed reactions or verdicts on the Buhari era. President Buhari entered office in 2015 with solid political capital, enormous goodwill, and public approval; he is leaving against the background of widespread discontent and a low popularity rating.

    Fortunately, the ultimate verdict of history is incorruptible. Buhari’s successes and failures are left for posterity and historians to articulate and pontificate on. Nigerians lived experiences, left in the sands of time during his administration, will form the ingredients of such historical evaluation.

    It is now time to put behind us whatever views, disenchantment, or even praise we have for the Buhari era and build on whatever successes he achieved and fix the areas he failed, mindful of the fact that no leader is infallible. Moreover, Nigerians romanticise past administrations when current administrations dash their hopes and aspirations. Little wonder, people reminisce and glorify the days of former presidents they felt were terrible before leaving office when faced with the harsh realities of the new administration.

    In Tinubu-Shettima, we are not expecting a perfect president and vice president, but at least it is a new dawn – a new beginning for a country in dire need of unity, peace, and progress. All Nigerians are beckoning on the new administration to create a new vision of Nigeria and work hard towards actualising that vision.

    Nigerians are holding on to the renewed hope this administration promised during elections – an audacious hope of a better Nigeria built on our strength in diversity, harnessing our great human and natural resources, and leveraging the successes of past administrations in creating the Nigeria of our dreams.

    We recognise that the road ahead is bumpy and rough, but we trust the instinct of Nigerians who gave Tinubu-Shettima the mandate to drive them through this rugged terrain and their undeniable belief in their ability to take them to safety and progress.

    Most Nigerians, suffering from adverse economic hardship, poverty, insecurity, and poor living standards, view this new dawn as a good situation, a ray of hope and an opportunity to start afresh. As Tinubu- Shettima assumes office, they must recognise the enormity of the weight of the hopes of millions they are carrying.

    Millions of Nigerians are not asking for much from this administration; they want a better life for themselves and their families, and they believe that brick by brick, this new administration will create the enabling environment that will make life good for many people.

    The inauguration marks the end of politicking, and all opposers to the administrations are left with the judicial process to seek redress for any perceived  electoral maleficence. As the Tinubu-Shettima administration is sworn in, they are now the president and vice-president of Nigeria. As advised by ex-President Uhuru Kenyatta in the pre-inauguration lecture in Abuja, they must rise above party politics and assume the leadership position of the presidency entrusted to them. “The contest is now over and the hardwork of building a prosperous and United Nigeria begins,”enjoined Kenyatta.

    But we know that managing victory is even more complex than securing it. With electoral victory comes the laborious act of managing the expectations of multiple stakeholders, managing claims and counterclaims of people who participated in securing the win, managing politicians and your party, and managing the hopes and aspirations of Nigerians. While it is legitimate to expect new energy and new approaches to familiar problems, let us be conscious of the fact that we are dealing with the same party platform so there will be some level of continuity.

    The past few months have seen the justling for positioning, the bravado of close allies to the presidency, and the intrigues and shenanigans of power brokers ever ready to hijack the political system, structures, and processes. This administration’s success depends significantly on managing these complexities while focusing on what is best for Nigeria.

    This administration must overcome these challenges and start from day one to show Nigerians and the world that it is ready for business – the business of leading Nigeria in a democratic way to give all dividends of democracy.

    It is imperative that from day one, this administration is perceived as serious, focused , and dedicated to improving the quality of life of Nigerians. The first time is always the best time to create a lasting positive impression, and this administration must shape public perception of what it wants to project from today and maintain that.

    This inauguration is a significant milestone in our democratic consolidation . It is the 7th consecutive inauguration. Although our democracy has its faults, this is a feat worthy of celebrating. Nigerians are celebrating and hopeful for a better future. Ordinary Nigerians want a government that works from the new sheriffs in town. Let us consider three agenda items the government may focus on and three roadblocks we must contend with immediately.

    The first agenda item is that the government must create a clear roadmap for Nigeria’s critical issues. They must have definitive roadmap on energy subsidy, insecurity , fixing the economy, food security, power, technology, education, health, corruption, unemployment, and others. These roadmaps should be clear for all Nigerians to see how the government defines the problem and its strategies and definitive action to solve the issues. Nigerians are expectant, and rightly so and want to know ab initio that the government is serious about dealing with the myriad of problems they are encountering daily.

    The second agenda item is that government should articulate critical policy statements on many contentious issues the past government shied away from. These issues include the removal of fuel subsidies, parallel foreign exchange regime, debt profile, national census , public workers’ agitation for pay increases and improvement of service, approaches to tackling poverty and health inequality, insecurity (successionist agitations, farmer-herders crisis, terrorism, kidnapping and armed banditry), and environmental degradation inclusive of  climate change.

    The third agenda item is inclusiveness. Given the prevailing perception of marginalisation by some groups in the country and the divisive nature of the last general elections, the critical job of this administration is first to create unity in the country.

    The need for national unity and viability is more important now than ever in our history. Without a substantive Nigerian nation , all our best efforts and fancy programmes will come to nought . Now is the time to pull the country together by being inclusive in the government. Thankfully, the Vice President-elect at every occasion has insisted there is no islamisation or ethnic dominance agenda.

    As good as these agenda items are, their success depends on how the government navigate the many roadblocks that are evident in truncating them. These roadblocks are the quality of the cabinet, money to finance the government, and national reconciliation.

    The quality of the president’s cabinet can be a roadblock or a source of strength. Acknowledged there are political IOUs to be paid; however, it should not be with the country’s future and the government’s reputation. It is not in dispute that whether a president succeeds or fails, or whether he is remembered by history or not, is determined by the quality of his cabinet. A cabinet of mediocre, failed former political office holders, inexperienced, ill-informed, without character and dishonest persons will be a terrible roadblock to the success of the incoming administration.

    A cabinet of knowledgeable, honest, competent, and experienced persons will shore up the profile of the government and its acceptability. A core cabinet team of professionals of ten persons around finance, economic planning, law and order, education, infrastructure, power, trade and investment, ICT and innovation with a clear vision and mandate will send strong signals that this administration is ready to deliver service. A competent chief of staff to the president will strengthen the coordinating capacity of the presidency.

    It is no more news that Nigeria is in a deep financial crisis. The Nigerian external debt is more than $40bn plus domestic debt of over N41 trillion and Nigeria spends most of its revenue on servicing debts. Nigeria’s primary source of foreign exchange earning is crude oil. And Nigeria’s finances follow the fluctuations and instabilities of the price of crude oil in the international market.

    The outgoing  government borrowed heavily to improve infrastructure, and the dividends of this infrastructural development to the economy are more medium to long-term than short-term. The money to run the government and provide the dividends of democracy promised to the electorate may not be there to achieve all the promises. This takes us to the urgent need for diversification of the economy as a solution.

    The need for the government at all levels to creatively raise revenue without putting new tax burden on the people is urgent. This new administration must look for ways to increase revenue and cut down on waste, corruption, and the cost of government. It must make revenue mobilisation a focal point of the administration.

    The third roadblock is national reconciliation. The success of this administration depends on how the constituent parts of Nigeria come together in peace and unity. Government must douse the tension in the country and address all secessionist tendencies, and it must intentionally heal the wounds caused by actual or perceived injustices.

    This administration must pursue total national reconciliation as a critical building block of nationhood, law and order , and progress.

    There is no doubt that Nigerians today are revelling in the new dawn of a new era. Tinubu-Shettima’s presidency carries the hopes of millions of Nigerians who feel that this is the beginning of a fresh start, and that this administration will get things right this time.

    I implore the presidency to live up to the essence of these hopes and champion a genuinely united Nigeria where millions of Nigerians will look to the future with happiness. Today is the first day of the first four years of your administration. Let the ride begin!

  • Why this presidential transition matters – By Dakuku Peterside

    Why this presidential transition matters – By Dakuku Peterside

    Presidential transition periods are times of excitement, hope, apprehension, speculation, and drama. It is associated with chaos, complexity, and coordination challenges. The incumbent president is not only saddled with the task of leading the country but also must start winding down its activities and prepare to hand over the presidency to the new president and his team. The incumbent almost becomes a lame duck as all the political activities shift to the president-elect. The president and his team start to feel the fleeting nature of power and quickly start losing the friends of the president’s seat to the new man and his people in the block. The pilgrimage to the incumbent president gradually winds down, and the expedition to the president-elect goes into the ascendency. These political intrigues and melodramas culminate in the final ritual of power handover – the presidential inauguration  ceremony  on the 29th of May of the year of the transition of power. In Nigeria, from 1999 till date, we have had six such presidential transition ceremonies but three transitions from one president to another – Obasanjo to Yar’Adua/ Jonathan, Jonathan to Buhari and now Buhari to Tinubu.

    There are predominantly two shades of presidential transition: one is a transition from a president from one party to a president under another party; the other is the transition from a president to another under the same party. We have experienced both in our nascent democracy, which can be taken  as an indicator of growth and the deepening of our democracy. Each transition poses challenges and brings about different apprehensions, claims and counterclaims. However, the current presidential transition is of the former shade and, therefore, must be assumed to be more accessible – President Buhari of the APC will hand over to President-elect Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC.

    This is the easiest part of this presidential transition steep in controversy and has split public opinion into multiple dichotomies. The dominant categorisations of these dichotomous strands are binary – some calling for the presidential transition to be postponed for different conjectural reasons , and others insisting it must hold, based on orthodoxy and the provisions of our  constitution. They are all entitled to their opinion but the law of the land must  prevail.

    Beyond these apparent differences, most Nigerians are interested in this presidential transition. Some Nigerians see this transition as a symbol of hope for a better future – an audacious hope in the Tinubu team to solve most of Nigeria’s problems and put the country in the direction of growth and prosperity. Others, although cautious , want to see a new government with a change of direction. Still, others are merely pessimistic and predict doom and gloom for the country. The reality is that only the future will tell what the Tinubu/Shettima  presidency will mean for Nigeria, and no level of optimism or pessimism will change that. The beauty of democracy is that these differences in opinion and expectations are allowed and even encouraged. Democracy is at its best when and where there are conflicting and opposing ideas and interests in the open market of ideas.

    I must admit that the actual presidential inauguration ceremony is just symbolic. The elections confer power, and the swearing in and handing over are mere rituals steeped in symbolism that entrenches our collective psyche that power has changed hands and new kids are in the block. It is only human and traditional that we have transition ceremonies, and that’s the way we make sense of the civil handover of power in a democracy. To illustrate the power associated with this symbolism, in 2009 ,President Barrack Obama retook his oath of office a day after his swearing-in because he missed one word during the swearing-in ceremony. On  the 29th of May 2023, Nigerians will witness the swearing-in of a new president and commander-in-chief of the armed forces to the delight of most Nigerians amidst fanfare and jubilations.

    However, most Nigerians will be enthralled less by the rituals and ceremonies and would rather focus more on  the overarching challenges  Nigeria is facing at the fore of their minds and wonder how the new administration will be deliberate and intentional in tackling these problems. Our nation has a humongous debt crisis, rapacious poverty, omnipresent insecurity, deepening divisiveness, nauseating nepotism, ballooning inflation, and unsettling unemployment, amongst other not-too-good indicators of falling standard of living.

    Beyond the symbolisms and rituals, this transition offers renewed hope, new opportunities and a new sense of optimism, no matter your political view or leaning. It is another fresh start to redefining our problems and developing bespoke solutions. There are five significant ways this transition matters to Nigerians.

    First, it is natural to expect a new lease of life with a new administration. Nigerians expect the new administration to hit the ground running from day one and issue policy directives that will give renewed hope to people overwhelmed by suffering. Humans, by nature, desire change, especially in a democracy. The need for change for the better has become existential for most people. If Nigeria continues in its current stunted growth  trajectory, the outcome will be unimaginable. Admitted in the past eight years, we made some progress in infrastructure and a few other areas.  Overall, in a democracy , leaders are merchants of hope. But hope not backed by positive actions is merely wishful thinking. Our problems are numerous; the new administration needs the “magic wand” to wave and make them all go away. However, we only hope that this administration will lay the foundation for a better future – a future where slowly but surely, we as a people have developed the capacity and resources to improve our lives and live up to the true meaning of our creed “unity, peace and progress”.

    Second, Nigerians want to hear and see what the new administration will do with fuel subsidy, taxation , our debt profile, electricity tariff, foreign exchange regime, national census,  and youth unemployment.  The outgoing  administration has shied away from dealing with these sensitive issues in a timely and responsive manner , but the people expect this administration to deal with these issues head-on. One might argue that these are elite concerns but whatever  option the new administration chooses has domestic social, economic, and political implications. This is even more crucial because we fought the last presidential election on these issues. The Nigerian electorate is savvy and much more enlightened than in the past. They demand answers and solutions. The young people are getting more politically active – some even militant about it – and are demanding change for their future. These facts are on the front burner of this administration’s agenda.

    Third, Nigerians desire to see how the administration will tackle insecurity from day one. The  people expect the new administration  to show dexterity and innovativeness in managing insecurity, which has become our albatross. Insecurity is destroying our society, and we will not achieve meaningful progress in the face of insecurity. It is crippling  and forcing us to change our way of life. The worst problem with insecurity is psychological. There is a pervading, insidious and heightened emotional sensitivity that insecurity has put in Nigerians that influences all our decisions – from the minute to the major. There is a lingering fear among Nigerians living in Nigeria that evaporates when you step out of our shores. This sensitivity is made worse by the ever presence of paraphernalia of insecurity – police, private security, paramilitary and military presences everywhere, convoys of cars blowing sirens with heavily armed men protecting our elites, stories of kidnappings, killings, and robberies everywhere, and ever-present rumours and memes about insecurity. As the new government works to tackle the real insecurity issues, it must work to tackle the psychology of insecurity that has shaped our collective consciousness.

    Fourth, Nigerians want to see specific steps the new administration will take to unite the country, acknowledging that the administration is coming to power not with an overwhelming  national mandate (36% of voters and not 51%). Nigeria  has never been this divided and factionalised  along different lines. There is no denying that the last presidential elections were fought on ethnoreligious lines, and they touched on our highly contentious ethnic and religious fault lines. This new administration must take steps to  heal the country and intentionally solidify our unity and diversity. Even in dealing with the contentious issue of the challenge of its legitimacy in court by opposition parties, the new government must put the nation first and above other political considerations , no matter the supposed temporary advantage that it may bring.

    Fifth, simply put, is the issue of bread and butter. There is hunger  and poverty in the land. The elite who will make up the core of  government must remember that. They must feel the pulse of the nation. People are suffering, and many are desperate. Nigerians have never seen this level of hunger and poverty before. We must do something about this and very quickly!

    There is no gainsaying the complexities and complicated options before this new administration. The problems are numerous, the people are pessimistic or mostly ambivalent, and the resources are scarce. Given our economic circumstances, solutions to many issues take time to fathom. Some pundits predict that the new administration may not be radically different from the old one, given that they are from the same party and share a similar ideology. The presidential election court cases are ongoing, and some Nigerians are expecting miracles – and you do not blame them. It is in this milieu that the presidential transition is happening. This is one transition happening in a most challenging period in the life of Nigeria.

  • Resolving Nigeria’s electricity conundrum – Dakuku Peterside

    Resolving Nigeria’s electricity conundrum – Dakuku Peterside

    Every Nigerian knows that we have an electricity problem. It has been a recurrent sound bite in development discourse in Nigeria post- independence. This challenge is generational and has defied all attempts in the past to solve it. And Nigerians are gleefully looking to the incoming administration to end the search for the solution to this hydra-headed problem and terminate Nigeria’s electricity conundrum. Whether this administration will succeed where others have failed in unravelling the electricity conundrum depends on its careful study and understanding of the problem. It will entail an in-depth review of all previous initiatives to solve the problem, and the current state of the whole electricity value-chain in Nigeria as well as providing bespoke strategies to provide sustainable electricity supply that meets the massive demand in Nigeria. Electricity, especially in Africa, connotes light, which signifies progress, knowledge, and awareness. Therefore, literarily, the absence of light is darkness; metaphorically, the lack of electricity connotes the dominance of darkness, which Africans associate with everything negative – witchcraft, poverty, stagnation, and even death. Little wonder the availability of electricity, or lack thereof, is significant to Nigerians.

    However, several studies have empirically proved that a lack of electricity correlates with poor human development indices. And on the flip side, access to reliable power can dramatically unlock higher quality of life. Three pertinent questions merit consideration: what is the current state of our electricity challenge ? What are some of the negative consequences of Nigeria’s electricity conundrum? And what solutions can the new administration pursue to solve the problem? Answers to these questions, though limited in detail and a rather snapshot of the current realities, provide a clear picture of the way forward for Nigeria and a bird’s eye view of the electricity ecosystem in Nigeria.

    The current state of electricity generation, transmission and distribution in Nigeria is a study in crisis. This crisis has become endemic and defied logic and common sense. First, Nigeria’s installed electricity generation capacity is said to be about 13,000 MW. However, actual generation capacity delivered to the national grid for transmission to Nigerians has during the past 8 years stagnated at an average 4100MW – 4200MW daily, even though during the past 2 years there has been a marginal improvement in energy quantities delivered to the grid reaching 4,753MW on February 2023. The consistent inability to deliver much beyond 33% of total installed generation capacity is a function of fairly long- standing market, infrastructure and regulatory challenges. This is for a population of over 200 million. Egypt’s installed electricity generation capacity was approximately 58,000 MW, making it one of the highest in Africa, with 100% access, for a population of about 80 million people. As of 2021, the installed electricity generation capacity in South Africa was approximately 58,000 MW, with 84.4% access for a population of about 60 million people. These two countries, with a similar economic size to Nigeria, produce and distribute about 15 times more MW than Nigeria, whose population is almost three times more.

    Second, Nigeria’s electricity distribution infrastructure needs to be updated and requires substantial investment. Transmission and distribution losses are high, resulting in a significant waste of generated electricity. Frequent system failures, such as blackouts and voltage fluctuations, are common due to inadequate infrastructure. Third, the regulatory framework for the Nigerian electricity sector has faced criticism for needing to be more effective and conducive to attracting investments. Inconsistent policies, bureaucratic hurdles, and difficulties enforcing regulations have hindered progress in the power sector. Fourth, electricity theft and non-payment of bills pose significant financial challenges for power distribution companies in Nigeria, affecting their ability to invest in infrastructure improvements and sustain operations effectively.

    Fifth, lack of a systematic, integrated approach to investment in the sector and a need for sufficient diversification among gas, solar, wind, nuclear, and hydro sources. And finally, inadequate planning in anticipation of demographics, domestic and industrial power needs, and sabotage of public power supply to favour the generator lobby. These factors compound our electricity conundrum and render most efforts in improving electricity ineffective.

    The consequences of this electricity quagmire are dire. Nigeria’s failure to actualise its full potential is partially attributed to this electricity conundrum. Studies have shown how the lack of reliable, affordable, and quality electricity has systematically underdeveloped our country in the past 30 years. And I will point out a few ways lack of electricity has stagnated our development or underdeveloped us.

    The first is that it impaired economic productivity. Electricity is a fundamental requirement for industrial and commercial activities. Without reliable power, businesses face operational difficulties, reducing productivity and competitiveness. Lack of electricity also limits the establishment and growth of new industries, hindering job creation and economic growth. As a result, the country’s inadequate power supply has induced low economic development and a high unemployment rate. The Africa Industrial Index Report and World Bank data show Nigeria has had a low industrial growth rate over the past two decades.

    The second is that it  significantly limited access to essential services. Electricity is a fundamental aspect of modern life and vital in providing critical services such as healthcare, education, food security and clean water supply. Without electricity, healthcare facilities struggle to operate medical equipment, schools face challenges in delivering quality education, and communities may lack access to safe drinking water. This limited access to essential services hampers human development and perpetuates the country’s poverty cycle. This partially explains why our poverty rate is one of the highest globally.

    The third is that it creates social and political tensions. The lack of reliable electricity can exacerbate political instability, particularly in fragile or conflict-affected states, and it can limit the government’s ability to provide essential services and create a sense of angst and frustration among electricity consumers. This has led to social unrest, political instability, and sometimes violence in the country.

    The fourth is the environmental consequences. The reliance on fossil fuel-based generators as an alternative power source contributes to increased carbon emissions, air pollution, and ecological degradation. Inadequate electricity infrastructure impedes the development and adoption of renewable energy sources, slowing the transition to a more sustainable and low-carbon energy system.

    The final impact is on security. Power outages and unreliable electricity supply have security implications. In urban areas, the absence of street lighting during blackouts can increase crime rates and compromise public safety. It can also negatively impact the operations of security systems, such as surveillance cameras and alarm systems, affecting overall security measures.

    We appreciate this electricity challenge and how it has played a crucial role in our stagnated development, and we keep trying to fix it. However, we have been making cyclic movements – “motions without movement” in the same spot. The government created NEPA, embarked on massive electricity power sector reforms in 2005, started Nigeria Bulk Electricity Trading Company in 2010, privatised Distribution Companies in 2013 and Generation Companies in 2014. Yet the challenge remains. Progress has been marginal. Power generation on the grid rose from a meagre 3,183 MW in 2013 to 4,753.9 MW in 2023. With about a sixth of our population, even Ghana has a dependable electric power generation of 4,710 MW, with the access of 85.9% against our 57%.

    How can the incoming administration rescue Nigeria from this intractable and malignant malady of electricity poverty?

    The new administration must understand the four-fold snags the electricity industry faces: an exponential increase in the demand for electricity due to a rapidly increasing population without commensurate investment in the supplyend; pervasive insecurity threats to power installations and gas infrastructure given that about 80% of grid-tied generation are gas fired; high electricity transmission and distribution losses; over-reliance on generators which last year cost more than $5.2billion for importing and running generators; and liquidity challenges faced by distribution companies due to low collection efficiency and theft.

    This understanding must lead them to declare a state of emergency on electricity. We can only imagine the multiplier effect of the government getting electricity right on our way of life. Nigerians over the generations have yet to experience sufficient electricity. The culture shock most Nigerians have when they go abroad is experiencing a constant electricity supply, and it takes a while to get used to it. This government must take Nigeria out of this “self-inflicted” electricity conundrum and put us on the road to sustainable electricity sufficiency.

    I will suggest a cocktail of options available to the government. The government must create the right policy environment and framework for increased private investment in power generation, leading to the modernisation of transmission infrastructure and management. It must work towards greater diversification of energy sources, emphasising renewable and clean energy sources. It is time the government considered nuclear energy as an option. If South Africa , Iran and Turkey can build nuclear power plants , we have no excuse not to. Government must review existing distribution concessions with greater due diligence on the financial health of distribution companies. It must implement a steep upward review of tariffs on generator imports after a given period of grace to discourage generator dependency, and the government must do this simultaneously with improvement in power supply. The government must upgrade and modernise the national grid to make it more flexible and compliant with current global trends. State Governments , with the new constitutional provisions must play a critical role in our drive towards power sufficiency .

    I am unconvinced that Nigeria is doing enough to fix this intractable electricity challenge that has held our development down from pre- independence. It’s from one tell-tale to another. Like a new chapter, the beginning of a new administration is not a time to blame past governments, the private sector, contractors, or consumers for our serial failure to fix power. It is time to assemble our best hands wherever they may be, be single-minded and drive the optimisation of electricity as a national project to unlock our true potential. The leadership of our country must show real commitment and strong will to improve the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. Nigerians expect nothing less. Failure is not an option—Nigeria’s economic, social, and political future hinges on solving our electricity conundrum.

  • Time for reset: Education reforms as a priority in Nigeria – By Dakuku Peterside

    Time for reset: Education reforms as a priority in Nigeria – By Dakuku Peterside

    Education is a critical priority for Nigeria, as it is for any nation serious about growth and development. Unfortunately, in the past ten years, we have not seen any focus on or dramatic improvement in education. Our best efforts at addressing education have put us steps behind our peer nations in all key development indicators. We inadvertently signal to the world that we do not care about the future. Education is a fundamental human right that should be available to all citizens, regardless of socio-economic status or background. This is different in Nigeria. Nigeria’s literacy rate, put at 62% by Globaldata does not make us competitive among nations and shows the dysfunctional state of our primary schools.

    At this point, we do not need talks, sound bites, and pretensions. We need radical reforms backed by action to change the status quo. The Nigerian government needs to take a holistic approach to education reform that focuses on improving the quality of education, increasing access to quality education, and promoting innovation and technology in education. Acknowledged , education is on the concurrent list and Local Governments have a pivotal role to play . The federal government still has a responsibility to set policy direction for the nation.

    As a first step, it may be necessary to establish a “Special Office on Education Reforms at the Presidency”, working with other levels of government and stakeholders, to fashion out a 25-year ‘Marshall plan’ to reposition education and follow up the plan with a measurable implementation strategy. It must establish policies and regulatory framework to increase literacy rates and encourage gender equality in education. While the federal government should strengthen regulatory regimes for standards nationwide, state and local governments should establish their competitiveness standards to be measured by academic performance in public examinations and evidence of high levels of numeracy and literacy skills among the children.

    State and Local Governments’ proactive actions are desperately needed given the cultural dichotomies and multiplicities of geopolitical differences in both access to education and quality of education in Nigeria. There are by far too many differences in standards in the Nigerian system, and state-by-state differences, regional geopolitical differences, and differences between public and private institutions exist. The education challenges in the Muslim North are peculiarly different from those of the South. Insecurity in the North has compounded the problems.

    Education statistics in Nigeria are frightening, as it faces many challenges in providing quality and inclusive education for its large and diverse population. Nigeria has the world’s highest number of out-of-school children, with about 10.5 million children aged 5-14 years not attending school. Nigeria has a low literacy rate of 65.1% according to World Bank data with significant gender and regional disparities. It has a low gross enrolment rate in primary schools of 68.3%, with 22.4 million children in public primary schools and 4.2 million in private primary schools. Nigeria ranks 124th out of 137 countries in terms of quality of primary education according to World Economic Forum . It has a low school completion rate of 63% for primary education, 44% for junior secondary education, and 17% for senior secondary education.

    It allocates only about 5 to 6% of its federal budget to education, far below the recommended 15-20% national budget by UNESCO. The expenditure on education as a percentage of GDP is also low at 1.95%.

    Furthermore, to underscore the crisis in our education sector, only 450,000 to 550,000 applicants who sit for JAMB out of 1.761 million in 2022 were admitted to universities. These 450-550,000 persons are 0.013% of 40 million youths aged between 15 and 24 (2020 data) eligible for university education. This lag in tertiary education opportunities is part of the reasons we are crawling as a nation. The astronomical rise in private universities from 3 in 1999 to 30 in 2009 and 111 in 2022 is evidence of the gap in university education but not necessarily about quality or affordability.

    Apart from the issue of access, Nigerian Universities are plagued with poor quality of instruction and learning, leading to a generation of unemployable Nigerian university graduates because they need more skill, cognitive ability, and critical thinking capacity. This gap can be traced to the quality of our basic education which is under the purview of local governments. Research output, which is the main criterion for ranking universities globally, of Nigerian universities and Nigeria academics is comparatively low behind countries like Botswana and South Africa. And knowledge accumulation, which leads to social and human capital formation and economic development, gives developed countries an advantage over developing countries. Our low research output partially accounts for why our growth is stagnated and the rentier economy is thriving.

    Conversely, estimated 5-7% of our seasoned Academics leave Nigeria annually to go overseas because of a better research environment. Several special NUC intervention schemes started earlier are either abandoned or discontinued. Such innovative schemes as Linkages with Experts and Academics in the Diaspora Scheme (LEADS) designed to attract Nigerian academics in the diaspora, Presidential Scholarship for Innovation and Development (PRESSED) for first-class graduates, and Transnational Education Scheme (TES) to boost foreign investment and partnerships between Nigerian universities and their foreign counterparts have not made the intended impact on our tertiary education sector.

    The education infrastructure in Nigeria is old, decrepit, poor, and sometimes abysmal. Successive governments have failed to build new public schools commensurate to the community need, or where they do, no real investment is made in infrastructure and facilities. Most public schools’ conditions are terrible, and no one wants to study there. The school buildings and premises are “not fit for purpose”. There is an extreme level of negligence towards education. The teachers are neither well-trained nor really motivated. Private schools are personal businesses and are squeezing the living daylight out of most parents who struggle to pay the cost of private education. The curriculum emphasises cognitive knowledge (memory-oriented learning) aimed at passing examinations instead of skill base, analytical and independent thinking needed for mental and economic progress. The theory is emphasised more than practice. Education technology is significantly unavailable in most schools.

    Neglect of education by government at all levels is a critical indicator of a failing state. When a state fails or is failing, the effective educational systems are privatised, or the public facilities become increasingly decrepit and neglected. Teachers and others who work in the education sector are ignored or relegated to the background, and reports to the relevant ministries are ignored.

    I must acknowledge the effort of Dr Oby Ezekwesili as minister of education under Obasanjo’s presidency who embarked on comprehensive education reform, but this was dumped as soon as the government wound down. At the sub-national level, attempts by Ekiti State under Fayemi, Edo under Oshimole, and Kaduna under El- Rufai to kick start the reset of education by improving the quality of teachers was resisted by the organised labour and other entrenched interest. This, unfortunately, is the dilemma.

    Recently, the federal government has devised various initiatives to deal with the education problem in Nigeria. These include Universal Basic Education (UBE) Programme, Education Tax, Safe Schools Initiative, Teacher Professional Development (TPD) Programme, National Education Policy, and the Private Sector Participation Programme. These initiatives, at best, had minimal positive effects on our education sector. Little wonder the education statistics still evoke horror reading. No doubt our education sector is broken.

    I call for a state of emergency and a complete reset in education. This means a holistic education reform that will position our education sector as the social and economic growth engine. Asian Tigers, referring to Singapore, Malaysia, and South Korea, amongst others, can attribute their success to the fact that they scaled up investment in education, as well as research and development, that enhanced human capital development to improve the productivity of the workforce across all sectors. Nigeria needs to do the same. It behoves the new administration to restructure the whole education system on a priority basis and align it with modern education techniques.

    Improving education in Nigeria requires a multifaceted approach that involves the government, businesses, educators, parents, and the broader community. Government should first devise a means of sustainably funding education and allocate a significant portion of the national budget to the sector. Second, improve teacher training and professional development to ensure teachers have the skills and knowledge necessary to teach in a 21st-century classroom. Third, prioritise expanding access to education, especially in rural areas. Fourth, prioritise science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM), then invest in vocational and technical education to equip students with practical skills relevant to the job market. Fifth, champion curriculum reforms by reviewing and updating the curriculum to ensure that it is appropriate and responsive to the needs of the country and the global economy. Sixth, embrace digital learning and promote the use of technology in education. And finally, improve monitoring and evaluation to assess the quality of education and track progress in achieving academic goals.
    The benefits to Nigeria of a robust education sector providing good access, high quality, and skill and practice-driven education are evident.

    A good education sector can contribute to economic growth by producing a skilled workforce better equipped to meet the job market’s needs, attract foreign investment, and boost economic productivity. Quality education is a powerful tool for poverty reduction, promotes better health outcomes, and promotes social cohesion by fostering a sense of national identity and shared values. Education can also promote understanding and tolerance among different ethnic and religious groups, therefore reducing ethnic and religious tensions and insecurity. It fosters innovation and entrepreneurship by providing individuals with the skills and knowledge necessary to start businesses and develop new technologies whilst enhancing Nigeria’s global competitiveness by producing a skilled workforce that can compete in the worldwide marketplace.

    We, therefore, implore the new administration not to play Russian Roulette with our education sector. They must remember that a robust education system catalyses sustainable, social and economic development.

  • When democracies fumble and tumble – By Pat Utomi

    When democracies fumble and tumble – By Pat Utomi

    By Pat Utomi

    Dakuku Peterside’s piece: “How Democracy Crumbles – the Nigerian case,” is a very valuable piece of column writing. It strives to capture and root in Nigerian context a growing tradition of scholarship and Public Commentary given seminal attention by two books of similar titles : “How Democracy Ends,” by Cambridge university Professor David Runciman, and “How Democracies Die” by Harvard Professors Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt. They showcase the need for vigilance in a world in which democracy was largely embraced after the demise of Hitler, with glitches here and there, like in Portugal, Greece and Argentina, before the spate of coups in Africa in the season of Afropessimism.

    Dakuku shows how electoral fraud in the 2023 elections and the capture of INEC officials and possibly the Judiciary by politicians, is castrating democracy in Nigeria and pushing it to the edge of the cliff.

    The article managed to shake me off reluctance to put pen to paper on the biggest challenge confronting Nigeria, the foretold death of its ailing democracy.

    I have responded to interviewers questions on the matter but had held back on contributing to the Thought Leadership I have called for because I did not want it to get mixed up in partisan barbs, mindless incivility, and propaganda terrorism that would have shocked Jacques Elul who wrote the Book on Propaganda. The Joseph Goebbels wannabes thrown up by the last elections, early warning signs of advancing fascism, have been waxing stronger in the scramble for counter narratives.

    With Dr Dakuku Peterside, who is an active partisan politician, elevating the subject and discussing as an intellectual I found it compelling to bring to the market place of ideas, on this matter of existential crisis proportions, some insights that could lift the public sphere to a place of rational public conversation. That place, in which Juergen Habermas sees the intersection of Democracy and Modernity, is domain in which the fight to save Nigeria’s democracy needs to be fought with the great urgency of now.

    As Peterside points out, the trouble with Democracy is a growing cancer around the world but in Africa it is grave, and much worse, in Nigeria. Peterside points to a few of the trouble spots in the world from Turkey to Hungary and Venezuela. But even the United Stattes has struggled with its conservative excess and Europe with ultra nationalists and populists, in recent times.

    As the horror of a Sudan being consumed by nihilist rage stares down at us the time to show evidence to Nigerian politicians who will grab power and run, with little thought for the consequences , lives of innocents, is now. This mess can consume us all just for not standing up to a few who do not share our values as evidence from their antecedents show.

    This now – now imperative cannot be sacrificed at the altar of skirting around truth for fear that it stirs the hornet’s nest and may trigger the army of uninformed media attack dogs adding more poison to the already toxic state of the public sphere.

    Wisdom suggests though that not seeking truth may push the polity further towards the anarchy which Robert Kaplan predicted in the book “The Coming Anarchy” about the time our new democracy’s birth certificate was being issued 24 years ago.

    So I seek light for truth here knowing , as George Orwell wrote many years ago, that ‘in a world of universal deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary art’.

    A revolution is desperately needed to salvage Nigeria from the grave present danger of the demise of its democracy and a downward spiral into anarchy.

    But how come the big men of politics who create these dangers by their actions and pronouncements cannot see eschatological forebodings of what they are doing.
    Is it because they lack patriotism. Perhaps not. Sometimes the prisms through which they see the world, tinted by ambition and perceived benefits of state capture blinds them to truth. This is compounded by weak institutions that fail to punish those who erred yesterday elevating impunity to the status of a chieftaincy title.

    As the British theologian James Lesslie Newbigin suggests ‘ a person who wields power cannot see truth; that is the privilege of the powerless’. But those worthy of the power they search for would, in my view, prepare themselves to see through these blinders and find meaning in this critic of extant crises of being, for the Nigerian state.

    I should actually worry less that those I called the complicit middle in my last book: “Why Not – Citizenship, State Capture, Creeping Fascism and the Criminal Hijack of politics in Nigeria,” who urge moving on, at every wrong turn in the polity, will express exasperation and ask we just manage things’.

    Most times this is because of their fear of truth and hypocrisy of purpose. Still this established culture has often failed to halt the truth which Arthur Schopenhauer suggests passes through three phases. In the first stage it is ridiculed, in the second it is violently opposed and in the third it is accepted as being self evident.

    I often shudder when I ask people to go back and read my columns and watch my television commentaries from many years ago, where they will find that I predicted where Nigeria is today and it’s biggest problems a good decade or more before they added to our misery index measure. That came simply by reading trends that policy and good leadership could have caused us to eradicate or circumnavigate. But leadership which sets the tone of culture has been in poor supply in Nigeria.

    So where is the truth in the crises that threaten Nigeria today. Some may be driven by attitude to who were pronounced winners.

    Involved as I have been that has not much affected my bearing. For me it was essentially about public confidence in INEC and their living up to promise so that the process would confer legitimacy on the elected.
    Had something as simple as the BVAS working seamlessly and uploading to the IREV and Sunshine being abundant being the case, would have quickly congratulated the winner but the Mahmoud Yakubu INEC snatched defeat from the jaws of triumph . So when reality veered from promise and no explanations came forth quickly to allay fears, motives were quickly ascribed to the stoic arrogance of the INEC Chairman which bothered on contempt perceived as the bold face of the compromised. A cloud rapidly descended.

    Where two months after nothing is forthcoming on what happened the process is fully disrobed of integrity and it’s legitimacy conferring attribute is shriveled. The election malfeasance path to the deathbed of Nigeria’s democracy which Dakuku analyzes so pungently is sadly one cultivated by drip irrigation which has borne poor fruit for so long.

    The routine with which serious minded people tell you Atiku defeated Buhari in 2019 and security agencies engaged in capricious thwarting of will of the people rigged it ; President Umaru Yar’adua accepted that the election that brought him to office was flawed, etc, shows how little faith there is in INEC and why the Afrobarometer has longitudinal data showing declining effect for democracy in the country.
    When Michael Bratton and partners established the research network to provide Africa critical data there was much excitement as Nigerians responded from their being weary of military rule, affirming hunger for democracy. In more recent times the failing of the political class to provide the dividends of democracy, the inability of the political parties to recruit and socialize a service oriented leadership group bound by shared values around the Common Good has compounded the failure of INEC to give confidence to the vote. Add to this the disconnect of state from society and the people from the politicians in power and you have sketched the ugly moment we confront.

    When INEC proselytized a fail proof system the people suspended their contempt , the youth rose to the occasion, challenging for a new order and the Diaspora gave impetus to hope. Suddenly the old guard felt really threatened.

    On February 25th they violated the rules of justice, the rule of law and human dignity, journeying so fast to the gates of Hotel Rwanda in violent vote suppression marauding that affected some diplomats who observed the elections so much they arranged psychotherapy counseling for their Nigerian staff.

    Vice- President Yemi Osinbajo in his sobering speech at NIPPS, Kuru gave the example of the blogger of Yoruba ethnicity who took to twitter to lament that she and her husband were prevented from voting because they did not look Yoruba enough. And somehow some apparently reasonable people called the election the freest and fairest election and expect a normal court to allow its outcome to stand.
    Surely this calls for an effort to pursue truth.

    The Mastheads to two great newspapers supply, with their mottos, a pointer to truth on this matter. They are the Washington Post in the US and The Guardian in Nigeria. That of the Washington Post is ‘ Democracy Dies in Darkness’ while The Guardian draws from the wisdom of the founders of the Caliphate to remind that ‘Conscience is an open wound. Only truth can heal it.’
    How those mottos relate to the crisis of emotion and reason following INECs failed stewardship highlights the conundrum into which we are thrust and the possible resolution of the dilemmas that confront us.

    When March 18 happened and people I respected dismissed it as fitting for these uppity outsiders and people endorsed it, or said nothing, my consciousness was seized by historical parallels and the fact that grabbing power by bullying others is a habit forming phenomenon. Next time people do not ‘dobalè’ when you enter a room it could be ordered that they spend time in Jail. One day someone will come up with a final solution to this market dominant people, send them to the Gas Chambers. This was how it started from Weimar Germany and ended in the Third Reich.
    Ordinarily decent Germans who watched and kept quiet found they were engulfed by the unwholesomeness of on rushing fascism. Some would later become victims themselves.. Quite a few Octogenarians and older who experienced this are actually still alive. Some still hear the ring of Reverend Martin Niemoller: ‘First they came for the Socialists and I did not speak up because I was not a socialist, then they came for the Jews and I did not speak up because I was not a Jew, then they came for trade Unionists and I did not speak up because I was not a trade Unionist; then they came for Catholics and I did not speak up because I was not a Catholic. When they finally came for me there was no one left to speak up.’

    I jumped to the fore of those speaking up when the elections of June 12 1993 were annulled. I survived two assasination attempts from my role, even though I could have kept quiet.
    More importantly it alarmed me to the need for supranational institutions to intervene where state institutions are weak to hold those whose values crush the humanity of others in impunity accountable, an International Criminal Court.
    Two years after editors of a famous Boston Newspaper thought my January 1977 views too idealistic and that an ICC was unlikely to make it through the world of realpolitik, the Rome Treaty passed and an ICC sits today at The Hague.

    Beyond justice for victims of fascism my greater concern is for how you prevent people who turn with ease to exploit social cleavages like ethnic diversity and religion from increasing in influence to make chasms of the gap between us and them.

    Lagos violent vote suppression may not have been as obvious a break down of Law and order as operation wetie following the elections in 1964 in the Western Region but its effect was more troubling as it is a manifestation of what Yale Professor Amy Chua referred to as stoking ethnic hatred against market dominant minorities in her book “World on fire.” The world of quite a few went on fire that day. Many just saw the broad strokes of people angry at being denied their human right to vote but missed the anguish of individuals whose sense of self was pulverized. No wonder C Wright Mills insists history is better understood with the sociological imagination at the intersection of the grand sweeps of history and the personal troubles of individuals.

    To meet the egregious assault on our humanity with appeasement was clearly the moral equivalence of Neville Chamberlain’s attempt at appeasement with Hitler. The current narrative with embers of the sprouting of fascism in Nigeria is being met with appeasement by foreign powers and the complicit middle at home. We know where that took the world in 1939.

    This is why I have been much interested in work at the Centre for Moral Cognition at Harvard where they are bringing together Neuroscience, Psychology around Emotional Intelligence and Philosophy to understand how we make decisions that are divisive. I have given out the book “Moral Tribes – Emotion, Reason and the Gap Between us and them” written by Joshua Greene who is director of the Centre to see if it will help grooming. I do think though the key is in the redesign of Political Parties and their processes for recruiting and socializing people who enter public life so culture can make taboo of the exploitation of such cleavages for political gain.

    And the truth on this matter has to begin with INEC flashing light into what happened to the 2023 elections as the Washington Post seeks for democracy so the open wounds that are the consciences of the Nigerian people can begin to heal. It is not enough to consign this humongous social burden to a few Lawyers who got appointed to the Bench and are picked, as Judges, to serve on election tribunals, for as the Motto of the University of Pennsylvania reminds : ‘Laws without Morals are useless. Leges Sine Moribus Vanae.’

     

    Patrick Okedinachi Utomi is a Professor of Political Economy and Founder of the Centre for Values in Leadership.