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Tag: Dakuku Peterside

  • Time for reset – By Dakuku Peterside

    Time for reset – By Dakuku Peterside

    Nigeria’s nascent democratic journey  has lasted for 24 uninterrupted years, the first time in its history. Previous democratic interregnums did not last long enough due to incessant military incursions into governance to give us enough time and data to evaluate its impact on society. The debate on the success or failure of our democracy is raging, and opponents have enough data to back their claims. The jury still needs to be out on that. However, we have made some progress in our democracy, but many Nigerians are yet to connect personally with democratic values  and dividends, making them question the idea and practice of democracy – or at least the Nigerian brand of democracy.

    If the 2023 election campaign has done nothing else, it has spurred widespread calls for reform and renewal in just about every sector and institution in our country and to do things differently. Almost everything in these tumultuous election months – hyperinflation, economic crisis, deep poverty, poorly implemented currency exchange, fuel scarcity, high rate of “Japa” – grew out of problems swept under the rug for decades. Now the need to do things differently is urgent and imperative. The case for a reset is compelling and will require courage, clarity, and creativity. What matters to Nigerians  is responsible, timely, and evidence-driven actions. This is what the incoming government owes Nigerians.

    A quick critical review of the performance of our democracy in the core facets of society reveals startling facts as further justification for the call for a complete and total reset of our democratic governance to be fit for purpose. These facets include the economy, security, education, unemployment, social cohesion, morality and ethics, and healthcare. However, this column will focus on the economy and unemployment and visit the other issues in subsequent articles. Comparing the economic statistics in 1999 with that of 2022 will reveal some form of growth that, in isolation, may look like tremendous progress.  Economists attribute the growth we experienced  between 1999 to 2013 to oil and gas windfall  and not out of any ingenuity or right policy  decisions.

    According to the World Bank, some of the economic statistics of Nigeria in 1999 were GDP (current US$) $45.6 billion at an annual growth rate of  0.58%; GDP per capita (current US$)- $381.4; Inflation at 6.6%; and poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of the population)-54.4%. In 2022, the same report indicated that Nigeria’s GDP (current US$) $448.1 billion; GDP growth (annual %)-3.4%; GDP per capita (current US$)-$2,113.5; inflation, consumer prices (annual %): 16.6%; Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines, 63% of persons living within Nigeria.

    Comparing 1999 with the 2022 economic data, we can see that Nigeria has experienced significant economic progress  over the past 23 years at the macro economic level and not necessarily at the micro economic level. Some of the changes are GDP (current US$) has increased by 883%; GDP growth (annual %) has risen by 4.83 percentage points; GDP per capita (current US$) has increased by 454%; inflation, consumer prices (annual %) has risen by ten percentage points; poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of the population) has increased by about 9% percentage points. It may seem like a good improvement at a cursory look, but given the period covered and context vis a vis what Nigeria’s contemporaries did within a similar time frame, we have mellowed our shout of Uhuru.

    Furthermore, a more realistic comparison will be to compare our economic data within the past decade (2012 – 2022), and this reveals some dire results. Economic statistics of Nigeria in 2012 are GDP (current US$): $460.6 billion; GDP growth (annual %): 4.3%; GDP per capita (current US$): $2,762.9; Inflation, consumer prices (annual %): 12.2%;Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of the population): 53.5%. Comparing these statistics with those of 2022 shows that the GDP has decreased by 2.7%; GDP growth (annual %) has decreased by 0.9 percentage points; GDP per capita (current US$) has reduced by 23.5%; inflation, consumer prices (annual %) has increased by 4.4 percentage points; poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of the population) has increased by about nine percentage points. This shows the dire straits our economy is in currently; therefore, we need to do something about it urgently.

    If you compare the growth of two nations with similar circumstances, you will be worried about why our growth has been stunted. The two nations are Rwanda and India. Rwanda’s growth rate was -0.9% in 2007, but by 2016, it peaked at 9.4% and stabilised at 4.9-4.2% between 2021 and 2022. Within the same period, their GDP grew by 25% relative to 2007. India’s case is even more admirable. India did not only increase its GDP fivefold in the last ten years but was able to lift more than 415 million people out of poverty in the past 15 years, whereas, during the same period, more Nigerians moved to multidimensional poverty.

    The reasonable inference to draw from this picture is that there is something wrong with our economic model. We need a reset before we degenerate into economic slavery. The indices indicate that our economy is not working -low growth, high inflation, high unemployment rate, unfavourable balance of trade, GDP and  low FDI. We must stop the degeneration and reverse it to the path of growth. Tanzania, Ivory Coast and Rwanda are getting it right. Whatever we must do to achieve a minimum of 5% growth per annum  is critical and urgent.

    The second problem is unemployment. Unemployment statistics in Nigeria could be better, as the country faces a high and rising level of unemployment and underemployment, especially among the youth. Nigeria has an unemployment rate of 27.1%, which means that about 21.8 million people are actively looking for work but cannot find any. Nigeria has an underemployment rate of 28.6%, meaning that about 22.9 million people work less than 40 hours a week or in jobs that do not match their skills, education, or aspirations. Nigeria has a youth unemployment rate of 40%, which means that about 14 million young people aged 15-24 are unemployed.

    Nigeria has a low labour force participation rate of 56%. Nigeria needs to create at least 3.6 million net new jobs annually to reduce the unemployment rate to 5% by 2033, according to a policy memo by Agora Policy. This would require an average annual GDP growth rate of 7.5% and an employment elasticity of 0.523.

    The good news is that the new administration acknowledges these challenges as real and present, and the ideas and the will to tackle it is now the issue.

    The critical challenge our political leaders face is making Nigerians feel whole again, creating opportunities and hope for Nigerians, advocating, and expanding the frontiers of freedom, eschewing ethnic and religious bigotry, repudiating impunity, corruption, and uncertainties, putting Nigeria on the path of recovering our country socially, economically, and morally.

    In the penultimate month of the inauguration of a new government, it is time to reset Nigeria’s economy. This reset should be built on three critical pillars. These pillars include restoring public confidence in the institution of government and its capacity to provide all citizens opportunity irrespective of tribe, religion, or tongue; re-prioritising our national priorities to focus on the economy, security, education, a new national – subnational relationship ; and resisting playing politics with national development and fighting corruption.

    The government should declare war on getting the economy right, especially raising money to make a difference . Once the economy is good, it will elicit both intended and unintended multiplier effects on every other aspect of the growth and development of Nigeria. The government must have a clear, SMART economic goal and an overarching economic strategy to achieve the set goal. There must be clear revolutionary actions that will reset the economy. The first of such revolution should be rapid infrastructural development which should be evident to all Nigerians. Spending on  power ,viable interstate highways , airports of truly international standard ,  scaling up train revolution  and other projects must explode.This can only happen if we can raise money as a country . The incoming government must find the money to make a difference in all critical areas . As it is often said , money answers  all problems.

    The second revolution is massive job creation. The Nigerian government must decide what clear strategy to create jobs. The bottom-up approach has not worked as intended and must be revisited. Therefore, I advocate for the top-bottom strategy, where the government encourage the establishment of many companies, industries, and small and medium-scale enterprises to boost production and create jobs. The government should resist providing only public sector jobs as it is not sustainable . This is counterintuitive because it makes the cost of governance high.

    The last revolution is creating a sophisticated power and  technology  deepening strategy that will provide  access to the internet, smart mobile telephony and a sophisticated ID programme that will capture 99.9% of adult Nigerians that can be used to verify anybody instantly. This will be the backbone of cataclysmic change in Nigeria and provide the solid data infrastructure and base to move Nigeria into the technology age. The impact of this will be mind-boggling. Nigeria has the BVN, NIN and other forms of identification platforms currently.

    This needs to be harmonised and harnessed for Nigeria’s growth. The government must push to have almost every Nigerian captured in the ID programme and utilise the advantages of such data for economic progress. Imagine an organised ID system’s impact on instant loans to individuals and organisations, direct government interventions, like credits to citizens and businesses, ease of providing security, and increased confidence in doing business in Nigeria.

  • How democracy crumbles: The Nigerian case – By Dakuku Peterside

    How democracy crumbles: The Nigerian case – By Dakuku Peterside

    Democracy, by its design, nature, and practice, is not a light toggle switch that is turned on and off. It is not a wall that crumbles in one fell swoop. Democracy is always a process, both in its growth and demise. History is replete with how democracies collapsed in other climes. Disregarding the rule of law is the root of all the cases. The most consequential disregard for the rule of law is the one that affects the entire population, and that is when they lose faith in the electoral process. It often led citizens to conclude that there is no difference between democracy, authoritarian rule, and other forms of government. Using electoral fraud to decimate democracy is far easier than any other means. Every attempt to compromise the electoral process makes it harder for the people to believe in democracy.

    In almost all nations where democracy crumbles, they followed the same playbook – whether in Peru under Alberto Fujimori( 1990-1992), Hungary under Viktor Orban, Venezuela under Hugo Chavez or Chile under Salvador Allende/ Augusto Pinochet( 1979). Destroy or compromise the institutions of the state, the police, judiciary, military, security apparatus, parliament, and most importantly -the institution and mechanism of the electoral process and democracy begins to crumble.

    The 2023 general election is a watershed in our electoral history, and all see the reverberation of its impact. Never in Nigerian history has the people been highly committed to an election with hope, optimism and great expectations. The final verdict of the outcome of the electoral process is yet out because the process has not concluded, but some came out disappointed in the structures and procedures of the election. Most of the political actors became Machiavellian and threw caution to the winds in their pursuit of electoral victory. Some politicians bought the electoral victories with pain and blood. The strategy was to win at all costs and care less about the consequences on our democracy. Little wonder there is a mixed feeling of progress with our democracy yet high despondency and frustration among many Nigerian post-elections.

    Nigerian political class seems unmindful of the consequences of some of its actions and inactions. The politicians who ought to guard democracy are inadvertently investing in destroying the guard rails of democracy. Politicians compromise judges, corrupt electoral officials, buy up security personnel and buy votes. This is after investing in the mass impoverishment of the populace and weaponising poverty.

    Our democracy seems to be unravelling in front of us. The gradual dismantling of our democracy is in seemingly random events, sometimes isolated and unrelated, but when pulled together, it shows our descent into anarchy or autocracy. The last general election witnessed three stages of dismantling Nigerian democracy by politicians, political parties, and their sympathisers.

    The first stage is known as capturing the referees. If you wanted to rig a football, one of the first things you would do is ‘capture’ the referees and get them to rule in your favour. In the last election, evidence suggests that politicians and their cronies captured INEC officials, and in time we will know whether they captured the judges in the many court cases that are still ongoing.

    The second stage is side-lining the opposition players. Their opponents entirely stifled the political opposition in some parts of the country. And not given a level playing field to compete in the elections. They were denied opportunities to campaign in some states and were molested, beaten, and arrested for no just cause. Some politicians told opposition members not to come out and vote unless they wanted to die. Opposition politicians and their supporters were subjected to various inhuman treatment, often in the open and where you have security operatives. They were blackmailed, and their supporters were ethnically profiled and denied their franchises. Unfortunately, society did nothing about it, and the perpetrators have gone without punishment or consequences. They are emboldened by their victory to keep brutally raping our democracy and dismantling it bit by bit.

    The third stage of dismantling democracy is disregarding rules—actions and reactions fuel losing faith in democratic institutions. The interpretation and actions of INEC on the position of the Electoral Act on the use of technology, specially Bimodal Voter Accreditation( BVAS) and INEC Results Viewing Portal( IRev) is the core of diminished trust the people have in INEC. It is also the plausible reason we have too many disputes about the declared results. INEC is generally believed not to respect constitutional provisions and its regulations.

    The dismantling of our democracy implies that Nigerian voters may have no reason to act rationally but will rely on primordial and survivalist sentiments to deal with future elections. If Nigerians believe their votes do not count, what is the point of elections? If we allow the prevailing feeling of disenfranchisement to continue, our democracy will become a mere nomenclature and not reality. In that case, there is virtually no reason to think our votes will change anything. There is also no reason to behave rationally. We will act emotionally and vote only based on ethnicity, religion, and other base sentiments.

    We will disconnect voting and elections from governance since voting does not decide who leads. Therefore, there is no reason to change our beliefs regarding electoral politics. As a result, people will continue to vote for whatever politician or party is closest to their emotionally determined beliefs. In other words, there’s no reason for people to vote rationally; instead, sticking to their biases or emotions is much more comfortable. Understanding this reality is essential since our democratic system assumes that rational voters are in the majority. And this is a danger to our democracy! At the extreme, if we don’t find ways to sanitise the electoral process further and, by extension, democracy, we would incentivise popular revolt to redefine democracy in the image of the people’s wishes.

    Suddenly, our democracy is tainted with politicians who reject the rules of democracy. They often are suspicious of elections and their results and sometimes rail against the laws and constitutions of Nigeria for their selfish reasons. They discredited their political opposition and sometimes tagged them as enemies of the state. They tolerate and encourage violence in elections and brag about their link to the mafia, militant groups men of the underworld. They quickly desire to reduce the civil rights of people, institutions, and protesters and actively silence the media.

    We have seen too many cases where results were declared under gunpoint, and the opposing parties and INEC appeared helpless. This gave rise to the insertion of Section 65 of the Electoral Act 2022, which stated that: “The Commission shall have the power, within seven days, to review the declaration and return where it determines that the said declaration and return was not made voluntarily or made contrary to the provisions of the law, regulations and guidelines, and manual for the election.” Going by what transpired in the March 18 and supplementary elections, this challenge is still very much around.

    Two strings of incidents in recent times have raised the red flag on the efficacy of the electoral process. The latest wave of electoral malfeasance is the Adamawa case. Too many inconsistent stories and conjectures are flying around. INEC owes us the obligation of full disclosure of what happened. A situation where the INEC REC, flanked by the commissioner of police in the state, unilaterally declared the APC gubernatorial candidate as the winner, but INEC changed course in a few days to announce the PDP candidate as the winner, leaves a sour taste to most Nigerians. It killed our democracy a little. Interestingly, both INEC and President Buhari have authorised the REC’s suspension from office, his investigation and possible prosecution by the police, but to give confidence to the citizens, it will be imperative to make the findings public.

    Another embarrassing interference in the electoral process is what happened in Rivers State during and after the elections. How INEC conducted the governorship and state assembly elections in that state can earn her a spot in the Guinness Book of Records of electoral heist. The orchestrated mob action and drama that followed the attempt by APC to inspect and collect from INEC RVS certified true copies of electoral materials is a big dent in the electoral process. The fact that all the drama happened in the presence of security agencies and INEC officials makes it difficult to dispute the conspiracy theory that followed.

    Even the lawyers preparing to fill election appeals were molested, arrested, and manhandled. The supposed guardians of democracy raised no voice to condemn what happened in Rivers State. Although “the protesters” trying to stop opposition parties in Rivers State from inspecting and collecting true certified copies of INEC materials used for the elections were at the INEC office for days, no single arrest was made, nor was anybody invited for questioning. Our democracy is the victim of these shenanigans; we are all casualties. No doubt these anti-democratic forces are emboldened.

    These trends are laying the foundation for the complete demise of our democracy. All lovers of democracy must not allow these anomalies to continue unchecked. We must protect our democracy and bequeath it to posterity. We should not take things for granted simply because our democracy has survived the shenanigans so far. Democracy remains the only system of government that will lead our multi-ethnic, multi-religious, multi-language and heavily diverse country into meaningful growth and prosperity. Let us defend it!

  • Security vote and transition stories – By Dakuku Peterside

    Security vote and transition stories – By Dakuku Peterside

    In 2021, State governors and local government chairmen in the 36 states of the Federation collected over N375 billion from public coffers in the name of security vote, an act not provided for in the Nigerian constitution or any known law in the country. This amount excludes those the president and other top government officials collected in the same year, nor does it include what is appropriated for internal security or the budget of the police and security agencies. The security vote, often provided in cash to governors, is not subject to legislative oversight or independent audit and therefore disbursed at the Governor’s discretion. Regrettably, despite the enormous sums of money they collect from the public treasury, state governors have been incapable of stopping wanton killings, kidnappings, inexplicable security breaches and other criminal activities in their states.

    Security vote is a monthly opaque allowance allocated to state Governors to fund non-classified security expenditures within the states. The monthly fund runs into billions of Naira and varies based on the level of security intervention required by the individual state or the level of influence the Governor wields over the legislature. Some states collect as much as 24 billion annually, and others less. The level and quantum of security vote is a function of the perceived security cum political threat a state is exposed to. The governors are not alone. Chairmen of local government areas also collect security votes that they treat as personal entitlement or funds. The worrisome aspect of this practice is that there is no limit to, or regulation of what governors may spend as a security vote, and, sadly, the amount involved may be appropriated. However, the expenditure is never subject to legislative scrutiny or accountability. Instead, the allocation and use of the amount involved are usually shrouded in secrecy. In fact, the Court of Appeal in the case of FGN versus Jolly Nyame posited that failure to give an account of security votes amounts to stealing or criminal misappropriation, akin to genocide.

    Prevalent data shows that in one year, this in-cash, opaque spending exceeds 70 per cent of the annual budget of the Nigerian Police, more than the Nigerian Army’s annual budget, and more than the Nigerian Navy and Nigerian Air Force’s annual budgets combined. This excludes the personnel cost of the military services. For instance, the 2018 budgetary allocation to defence headquarters was N145 billion, while funding to the Ministry of Interior was N63.26 billion—the total falls short of N241.2 billion the governors spent under the amorphous subhead “security vote” in that year. Admittedly, the security agencies’ budget has spiked in the past three years, driven by multiple factors.

    Last week I read both in the conventional and online media about a meeting with anti-corruption agencies, at the instance of the Nigerian Governors Forum, to discuss the issue of security vote. The motive was unclear, especially coming at a time of transition to new governors. It might not be unconnected with outgoing governors looking for a shield from being harassed by anti-corruption agencies after leaving office on May 29. We cannot dispute that the “security vote” is more of a myth, mystery, or tale than a public interest issue. It is the most shrouded secret expenditure in government circles. However, the funds are public resources, so the people deserve to know how every Naira is spent and the value derivable.

    There are two schools of thought on the issue of security votes. On the one hand, the hypothesis is that in third-world countries, absolute transparency is impossible in government. We must do certain expenses under the table to ensure societal stability, and we cannot capture such expenditures done in the public interest by the Governor within any accountability framework. A second and opposing school of thought contends that public money is at stake, so it must be accounted for. And those public funds, if not accounted for, will always be subject to abuse. Both schools raise pertinent issues for interrogation, and this has become more urgent just before new governors take over the reign of governance and continue with a convention that has yet to serve any purpose.

    At a time, we are witnessing governors withdraw several billions in cash, state accounting books not being tidy, some states spending as much as 10-15% of the annual budget on security votes without any form of accountability, and services nosedive in states yet security votes keep rising, the need to balance public interest, practical reality and abuse becomes imperative.

    One condition that has inadvertently worked for the Governors is that people prioritise increased security over transparency and accountability in the face of high levels of insecurity. Therefore, we subordinate the need for accountability in finance to the desire for improved security. Without accountability and transparency, it is not difficult for governors to exploit the concept of state security to pilfer from the public purse. This is undoubtedly true in many states in Nigeria, where the deteriorating nature of the security of individual lives and property has ensured the existence of little or no public opposition to all manner of government proposals aimed at improving state security.

    In turn, high levels of crime and disorder have facilitated the ballooning of security vote, the abuse of which is achieved by creating a black box around the concept of state security under the pretence that absolute secrecy is required when it comes to the allocation and spending of resources to tackle insecurity. The abuse and misuse of security votes in Nigeria have grown alarmingly in Nigeria’s 23 years of democratic interregnum. The tendency among Nigerian politicians, particularly the executive arm at the state levels of government, to manipulate security issues for political and economic gains is widespread. A former EFCC Chairman alleged that some governors deliberately fuel insecurity in their states to provide oxygen for more security votes.

    Pertinent rhetorical questions arise: Is the security vote of governors a statutory stipulation? Is it provided for in the constitution, the financial guidelines, or general orders? How much should it be as a percentage of state GDP, presumed security needs of individual states, and population? Who audits and controls security vote appropriations? Should governors have access to state funds above the requirements of public accountability?

    Although governors have no responsibility for the country’s security apparatus at the state level, the constitution recognises them as chief security officers of their respective states. However, the worsening security situation in the country has justified governors to demand an increased role in the security of their states. Some governors have argued that the legislature should amend the constitution to give them more control and power over security issues within their state.

    Because the entire budgeting process and operating mechanics of security votes are shrouded in secrecy, a consequence of the rentier nature of the Nigerian state and its underdeveloped democracy, there is little pressure to justify such expenses and subsequent increases to the electorate. The secrecy surrounding issues of state security and the nature of security votes provide an alibi for state governors in their attempt to evade allegations of corruption and disguise their pilfering from the public purse.

    EFCC has recently expressed concern about states hiding under security votes for all sorts of infractions, including using state money to sponsor violence against her people, using state funds for personal projects and siphoning funds for other political and party interests. The critical issue is how do we justify the continued relevance of security votes, a carry-over culture from the military regime when all security agencies are under the federal government? How do we constructively balance public interest, proper accountability framework, probability of abuse, and practical reality without compromising general security? Is it high time we tackled this issue of security votes before the next set of governors sacrifices tangible development on the altar of security votes?

    In some quarters in Nigeria, the perception that governors should not account for security votes needs to be revised. This is so because the Nigerian Constitution invests the legislature with the power to oversee the audit of all government accounts, including security votes. The fact that the legislature has failed to do this in the past because of incompetence or compromise does not change this fact. Security votes have become a convenient tool for disguising these governors’ looting of the public purse. This lack of accountability has continued unabated even though the 1999 Constitution contains sufficient safeguards to prevent such abuses. The problem is rooted more in the rent nature of the state than the inadequacy of the laws and constitutional provisions to mitigate it.

    Granting that there will be expenditures incurred by governors outside the budget provisions, how do we accommodate these? Issues like the emergency medical evacuation of notable citizens, emergency distress assistance, and donations to good causes need to be provided for since they will always come up. We must create a core subhead for these in each Governor’s office so that expenses can be retired, and due accounting processes observed. The term’ security vote’ is, therefore, a misnomer. We should create a new terminology to cover the financing of emergencies of the state, including support to security agencies that are accountable and not open to abuse. The Nigerian states should critically examine how states in matured democracies deal with budgeting for emergency expenses that are accountable and legal. The legislature constitutionally granted the oversight role against the executive must reconsider the security vote and either remove them entirely or allow a reasonable amount (about 1% of the budget) for emergency security issues. And the governors must account for it.

  • Democracy and Dividends of Diversity – By Dakuku Peterside

    Democracy and Dividends of Diversity – By Dakuku Peterside

    Multiculturalism in England, Ireland and Scotland has produced new leaders of Asian origins. This ideal is celebrated worldwide as progress and a symbol of a more fantastic future where the emphasis will be placed more on unity in diversity than discrimination of the old era. The power of this new development is not lost on people. Rishi Sunak, a Hindu whose parents are of South Asian background but migrated to the UK from Africa, became the first British Prime Minister of a minority ethnic background; Sadiq Khan, a Muslim and son of a Pakistani immigrant, is the Mayor of London; Humza Yousaf, also of South Asian heritage is the First Minister of Scotland. These three are the most powerful and influential leaders in Britain. In Ireland, Leo Varadkar, the current Taoiseach and leader of the Irish government in Dublin, has Indian heritage. The dominance of Asians in the British and Irish political establishment is very evident and a signpost of the importance of an ethnic-blind approach to politics that recognises and rewards capacity, character, and competence over racial identity.

    It is a significant advancement that they elected these leaders in a way that suggests racial and ethnic impediments were insignificant.

    This new political ideal has seen the rise of South Asia as the world’s leading incubator of human capital, especially in great western power blocs in Europe and the USA (Vice President Kamala Harrisis of South Asian heritage). What does this new wave of rise in the presence of people of Asia background in the highest corridors of power in Britain and the USA mean for Nigeria? Apart from just celebrating these successes, what lessons can Nigeria draw from these events?

    These events underscore the importance of human capital development in the struggle for power in a modern democracy that is defined by not just numbers alone  but merit.All these leaders are products of excellent education. Current leaders are like CEOs of great companies, and increasingly, the electorate  demand that their leaders have the requisite skills, abilities, and competence to lead them. A significant prerequisite is excellent education and professional experience. These leaders are highly educated and have proven competence.

    Many Nigerians are relocating abroad in search of greener pastures. Nigerians quickly gain a strong reputation in their quest for knowledge and doggedness in working to achieve their dreams in the various countries they travel to. Universities and colleges in western countries have many Nigerians open to pursuing higher education to better their lots in their host communities. Today millions of Nigerians live abroad; the most prominent communities are the United Kingdom (500,000–3,000,000) and the United States (600,000–1,000,000). Other countries that followed closely were South Africa, Gambia, and Canada.

    Nigerians in the diaspora must put great emphasis on the education of their children. Education is still the most excellent tool for social and political upliftment. We are seeing great rewards abroad, where most Nigerian diasporans dominate the medical and financial management sectors. These gains will soon translate to political advantage, especially in countries where children of these first-generation migrants, born citizens of these countries, may go into politics and compete favourably with locals. One day, we may get a leader of a western democracy with a Nigerian heritage.

    It is a new world. Societies are becoming more diverse, and developed countries are consciously courting diversity through immigration liberalisation.  Canada, for example, is working to welcome 1.5m immigrants by 2025 to strengthen its economy.  The USA has a long history of welcoming immigrants from all parts of the world . Germany will  have received  13 million immigrants by 2023. Australia and Switzerland  have very liberal immigration policies to attract the best talents from all over the world.

    Diversity and plurality have their advantages in a democracy and development . Nigeria is one of the most internally  diverse and plural states in Africa. With over 200 million people from over 300 ethnic groups and languages, Nigeria has a rich socio-cultural heritage to benefit from. This is an advantage, although we focus on the negatives. A diverse democracy explores the benefits of all groups and taps into the best. It is a game of numbers but centres on a merit-based system that rewards hard work and productivity above other considerations. Our plurality allows us to search for and get the best among us to lead our society . This creates an egalitarian society with equality in diversity, where we deploy all talents and skills for the good of all.

    A diverse democracy like ours explores the benefits of all groups and taps into the best. The dividends of democracy are evident when we harvest the best from our diversity, and the benefits accrue to everybody. At least, this is the hope of our founding fathers, who accepted democracy as the best form of government for a diverse Nigerian state. This hope is still flickering, and often we see its light shine brighter when Nigerians come together as one in international sports and other engagements, irrespective of the various ethnic nationalities that make it up.

    However, recently, some of the progress we have made as a nation regarding ethnic harmony has eroded. Ironically, we now negate our natural internal diversity by resurrecting ethnic divisions. We are all willing to celebrate Scotland,  Ireland and England’s  successes, but we are going the opposite path in our country and expect an egalitarian society. The last election unnecessarily  brought untold division, crass nepotism and ethnicity to the fore. Instead of focusing on the merits of voting competent, knowledgeable, and skilful leaders, ethnic bigotry became commonplace.

    Fortunately, in white-dominated western democracies, people of minority ethnic origins are becoming leaders based on their competence and leadership abilities, but in Nigeria, we are still hung up on the issue of the ethnicity of the leaders. We are allowing primordial ethnic sentiments and rivalries to becloud our judgement. It does not matter the ethnicity of a leader as much as that leader has what it takes to bring positive societal development. Even if a leader comes from an ethnic group with a minor population in the country, it does not matter, especially if the leader is visionary and transformational. That is what Nigeria needs. When will we get to a merit-based society where anyone can succeed in Nigeria through hard work, determination, and the power of ideas?

    The ethnic tensions as a fallout of the last election are not necessary, and it beggars belief that at this point in the Nigerian experiment, we are still bugged down with crass nepotism when the world, as seen in the western democracies, has moved on, and are actively encouraging and celebrating diversity and the gains it brings. Instead of focusing on utilising our diversity to our more significant advantage, we are busy preaching the gospel of ethnic superiority . This is a recipe for disaster. Nigeria will never achieve its potential if we continue this way.

    We must learn from Britain, Ireland, the USA, and other western democracies that have found ways of gaining from their diversity. These countries court the best, attract them, and harness their incredible talents for development. We must create an enabling environment that rewards meritocracy, not mediocrity  – mainly based on ethnicism. We must eschew all forms of divisions and celebrate everything that brings us together as one big Nigerian family. The marginalisation of any group based on ethnic  or religious sentiments is a cankerworm that will destroy the fabric of our society.

    Diversity management for optimum national benefit has emerged as a critical urgent task for the new government. President- elect  Bola Ahmed Tinubu and   VP-elect Kashim Shettima have shown that they understand diversity management at different times. In their previous roles as governors, they led inclusive governments that harnessed the potential of all within their states to develop them. They have enviable records of identifying talents and people with capacity, irrespective of which part of the country they come from, which ethnicity they are or their religious sentiments, to work with them to improve the lives of Nigerians living in their states. In their personal lives, they have shown that they are not ethnic bigots but champions of egalitarianism in Nigeria.

    Their winning sent a clear message that your ethnicity, religion, and faith are not barriers to leading the country we call home. I implore the incoming new administration to pay attention to reinforcing our multiculturalism and pluralism. Although enshrined in our constitution, our diversity is under constant threat, and various non-state actors ply multiple strategies and tactics to divide us. The new government must tackle this anomaly and restore hope in our society. Nigerians must be free to live, work, vote and be voted for in any part of Nigeria. Every Nigerian who is qualified to vote must be entitled to his/ her choice.  This administration must enthrone merit, high-quality standards, and good leadership to kick-start our growth as a nation. It must invest heavily in human capital development as the bedrock and foundation on which we anchor the development of Nigeria.

  • Dodgy elections, democracy and divorce – By Dakuku Peterside

    Dodgy elections, democracy and divorce – By Dakuku Peterside

    Nigerian elections and Nigerian marriages have a lot in common. Both should be sacrosanct. They are conducted with pomp and fanfare, and promises are made but kept in breach. Professions of loyalty and honesty are like a singsong. Like a marriage cements the relationship between two consenting adults supposedly in love, elections cement and clarify the relationship between the candidates and the electorate in defining power structures, agencies, and processes in a democracy. Divorce becomes inevitable when the glue that holds a marriage together weakens and breaks down over time. Likewise, when elections become dodgy, crude, and violent, they become meaningless, ineffectual, and unfit for purpose. Credible elections are the glue that holds the candidate and the electorate together, and anything that erodes people’s trust and confidence in the electoral system simultaneously creates a divorce between the candidates and the electorate.

    Nigeria’s last state governorship and House of Assembly elections have left a sour taste in our collective mouth. Well-meaning Nigerians and members of the international community on monitoring visits were appalled and mortified by the conduct of the elections in many states in Nigeria. Voter intimidation by thugs, the ballot box and result sheet snatching, result manipulation and violence were prevalent in most states. This anomaly has eroded the trust capital of our elections and created a deficit that may take a generation to recover. This election has raped our democracy and put in motion actions and inactions capable of producing a democratic divorce – a situation where elections are considered anathema in choosing democratic leaders . This is an open invitation to anarchy, lawlessness, and disregard for the rule of law.

    Like marriage, in a democracy, there is an agreement for people to live and work together for a shared purpose. There are rules, covenants, a code of conduct and principles. In both cases, there are stakeholders. There are expectations, promises and vows. Successful marriages require a lot of work, commitment, nurturing and observance of rules. Marriages that fail and lead to divorce start inadvertently.

    An election is critical to measuring whether democracy is succeeding or headed for divorce and is part of the stress test for democracy. The presidential election of 25th February was a sign of bad marriage, but the governorship and state house of assembly elections show that if we do not care, we are heading for divorce from democracy. All the features of a marriage headed for divorce were displayed during the last elections. Like a marriage under siege, violence, a flawed electoral process, result manipulation and “thuggery” were the rules of this election instead of the exception. This problem has led to moral panic and has brought to the fore the need for rethinking our democracy and the struggle for power within it.

    It is evident from the account of many observer missions that elections were shambolic in some flashpoint states with high competition among the top contenders. At no point in Nigeria’s history have political actors blatantly, openly, and shamelessly disrupted the election process, rigged the elections, and intimidated and abused voters verbally and physically as they did in this election. In some states, the scene on election day is reminiscent of a mob war and activities of Mafioso in banana republics. One observer mission compared what happened to the 2015 leaders State election, considered the most violent election in Nigeria’s history.

    All the reports point to the fact that Rivers State had no elections in the strict sense of elections. The state is now notorious for shambolic elections. On this occasion , INEC, her agents, and desperate political actors did not follow electoral rules, and worse still, the compromise of the security agencies was evident. Some reports accused some Lagos actors of elevating the electoral contest to a “thuggery contest”. Votes and violence, according to the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), were inseparable in most places. The political actors with greater might and control of instruments of violence had their way, and those with popular support without the “might of violence” lost out. These assaults on democracy stem from the dominant political philosophy in Nigeria among political gladiators, favouring winning at all costs at first polling and dealing with the aftermath with pretentious reconciliatory speeches. Recourse to due process and reliance on the rule of law were assigned to the dustbin of history.

    The ramification of this dominant ideology is mindboggling. One can only imagine the chaos and mayhem that will descend on the state in subsequent elections if all political candidates resort to militancy and thuggery in the polls. It is dangerous to assume that candidates will consider violence and rigging as the only option for securing the people’s mandate in a future election. This flies in the face of democracy, where the power belongs to the people and only through credible elections do people select whom to entrust their power over to wield it for the common good.

    This outcome-centric ideology defeats the purpose of elections in a democracy. A mandate obtained through violence and disregard for the due process does not represent the people’s will. The power wielded based on that mandate is illegitimate and illegal. Public commentators and political analysts like Ms Idayat Hassan of the CDD and Ms Oge Onubogu of the Wilson Centre argued that a fair and functional Nigerian election experience mattered more than the outcome. Onubogu opines that “Nigerians needed to be able to see that the process worked.” Hassan comments, “More and more citizens are losing trust in democracy because of these dysfunctions.” The process is fundamental in elections.

    Dambisa Moyo, a global economist, wrote on ten signs that democracy is under siege. There are elements of these ten signs in the last state elections in Nigeria. I will focus on the four most relevant signs vis-a-vis the previous state election. First, voter participation is on the decline. Mainly, after the adverse events most voters witnessed during the presidential and National Assembly elections ,some chose not to participate in the state elections. In the last presidential and National Assembly elections, only about 28 per cent of all eligible voters in Nigeria participated, and the state elections witnessed even lesser voter turnout. This percentage turnout is indicative and is one of the poorest turnouts in Nigerian elections. The import is that one-third of registered voters determined the will of the people.

    The second sign is that money buys political influence. Money played a pivotal role in defining the last elections. There are accusations of vote buying, financial inducement of political actors, financing of violence and thuggery, and compromising securityagents and INEC officials. They sometimes acted in unison to truncate the people’s will.

    The third sign that democracy is under threat is that the right or freedom to choose is declining. The political actors at the polling booths disenfranchised some voters, and other potential voters did not participate due to the hostile electoral environment characterised by extreme violence on voting day. Even some who voted lost the power to choose when their votes did not count because of ballot and result sheet snatching immediately after accreditation, before entering the results. In some instances, the outright destruction of voting materials by thugs was witnessed by voters.

    The fourth indicator is that the younger generations are turning away from democracy as they are losing faith in the sanctity of the process. Youths are the most affected in this last election. Most felt it was time to engage politically and change the system. However, they are disappointed and disillusioned. A cursory look at social media reveals an avalanche of comments and content showing youths’ utter dismay about the flawed process and outcome of the elections. Some feel that political thieves robbed their mandate and are still organising to push for the change of the orthodoxy they are clamouring for now.

    In some states, the gubernatorial and House of Assembly election processes and outcomes do not make common sense. Electoral fraud is a real threat to democracy. Nigerians in most states have been moot, protesting like in Nasarawa, or accepted the fraud with unspoken revulsion. Those who perpetuated and aided the fraud say it is not about morals but the outcome. However, they need to see the danger that lies ahead. Nigerians are fast losing faith in democracy. We need to do something urgently before we get to the terminal stage of divorce. This is an opportunity for the Judiciary to emphasise the importance of process and the rule of law in our elections. The only way to stop this electoral impunity is for the Judiciary to send a clear message through its judgements that deviation from the laws, rules and regulations governing elections by any candidate or party will be met with severe punishment and will never be rewarded. If political actors perpetrating electoral fraud can benefit from the crime, we are obviously on the road to perdition.

    The real and present challenge for our incoming political leaders and the international community is how to tackle these challenges before the sun of democracy set on Nigeria.

  • Governors: Right versus wrong people – By Dakuku Peterside

    The Gubernatorial and state houses of assembly elections have come and gone in most states. Unfortunately in some states it was characterised by drama, unnecessary tension, flawed process, violence, and broad day light electoral robbery. The victors are celebrating, and the losers must be feeling bad. We all hope that this election, flawed as it may seem, will deepen our democracy and that we have elected leaders that will stir the ship of the various states in Nigeria to a glorious destination. Governors who will convert electoral mandate to results in socio-economic progress.

    The few weeks coming will see election petitions on account of an obviously flawed process. And the judiciary will play its role in deciding the fate of most governors. As sad as this may be, this has become an unpalatable aspect of our democratic process. A critical reason for the massive interest in the governorship election is the vital role governors play in our democracy and our federalism. The state level remains the closest to the people and governors are crucial development actors that are often forgotten in discussing development in Nigeria because undue  focus is on the federal government, and most people attribute progress or lack of it to the federal government.

    The combined total 2023 budget of the 36 states of Nigeria is over N11 trillion, which is more than 50% of the federal government’s 2023 budget of N21.83 trillion. This vast fund accruing to the states, if properly harnessed and managed, adds critically to the development of Nigeria.
    I argue at this point that just as in all federal systems, attention must divert from the centre and focus more on the constituent parts of the federation. It is at this local level that development is planned and executed. The federal government should play more of the role of a central facilitator and only get involved in the country’s strategic security, economic and social interests. It is appalling and an anathema that the federal government controls more funds than all the states combined, which has led to the states going cap in hands monthly to the federal government for monthly allocation. In most federal systems, the case is the opposite – the states fund the federal through a specified allocation process. It is also disheartening that some state governments cannot survive without total reliance on federal government projects and allocations. This is at the root of Nigeria’s lack of progress – having states that are liabilities to the nation because they are unproductive and not viable.

    It is utterly absurd that instead of elected governors to focus on making their states economically viable and developing their states from down to up, many governors have turned the states into fiefdoms and domains where they rule as absolute dictators controlling not just the resources of the state, but all the state institutions with impunity. We see governors who unashamedly use public funds as their private funds and use it anyhow they want, with little or no accountability whatsoever. The job of a governor requires that they be less wasteful, less grandiose in lifestyle and cost of governance.

    Nigerian state governors by our constitution have enormous powers and resource bases that, if properly deployed, can create an oasis of development. Some of the revenue accruing to some states in Nigeria compares to that of smaller African countries. To illustrate this, Lagos state’s 2023 budget of about $4b is higher than the 2023 budget of the Republic of Togo ($3.2b), almost equivalent to the Republic of Benin’s 2023 budget ($4,5b), and nearly half of Ghana’s 2023 budget of $11.7b. Other states have a similar revenue trajectory. How states manage their resources directly correlates with the state’s development level.

    A cursory look at past governors and their performance will highlight various governors’ good, bad, and ugly shades. I am incredibly grateful to some governors who, in the past four or eight years, were able to articulate their vision clearly, set right priorities, ran a disciplined and inclusive administration and they are only a
    handful. A few have grown the economy of their states, raised the Internally Generated Revenue (IGR), and made considerable strides in infrastructural, social, economic, and technological development of their states. That way, they succeeded in improving the standard of living of residents of their states. My basis for measuring the governor’s performance is devoid of propaganda and sheer theatrics that most governors exhibit to confuse their citizens about their performance. Building a few roads, flyovers, and community centres does not qualify as development, especially given the enormous resources accrued to the state.

    The assessment is based on Human Development Index (HDI). It measures each state’s social and economic development by focusing on the following three factors: critical education parameters; relevant health metrics; and standard of living assessed by gross national income (GNI) per capita. The average HDI for Nigeria in 2021 was 0.535 (the possible highest is 1), and this is lower than for countries like Angola (0.58) and Egypt (0.73). Lagos state and Ogun State ranked the highest, with 0.68 and 0.67 respectively. The governors of these states are doing their best to maintain this quality of living among their citizens.

    There are examples of bad governors who squandered the resources of their states. Spend a lot of resources on politics and political survival to the detriment of salaries, pensions and capital projects. Where there are capital projects, they tend to be for display and vanity projects. some of these governors are under investigation, and others are soon to be investigated when they leave office. In the past eight years, a south-south state had a cumulative revenue of over N4 trillion but has little or nothing to show for it. The quality of life of the people of the state is declining, and unless there is some drastic measures, all the advantages the state had in the HDI during the previous administrations will erode. Many Governors were not able to translate their mandate to any tangible results and it manifest in low HDI below national average. Most of these states unfortunately are in the northern part of the country . We appreciate the current level of insecurity in these areas and applaud any governor that did their best with the resources they have to improve the lives of their people and heavily criticise those that squandered their commonwealth.

    We have elected a new set of governors and re-elected a handful to serve another term. I believe the old governors would have learnt from their experience and the new governors will be ready to learn from the mis-steps of their predecessors. This is the time to set agenda for them and hold them accountable. This is the time to remind them to think beyond the exigencies of the moment and think “legacy”. Emeka Anyaoku in 2011 advised newly elected governors to be “harbingers of change” by investing in their peoples and pursuing socioeconomic policies to create employment for the youth, restore quality education, diversify the productive base of their economies and work for improved healthcare. The advise is still relevant till date. All governors should strive towards sustainable revenue inflow tied to economic productivity. As the CEO of the states, governors should map out ways of relying less on federal allocation by improving IGR through sustainable resource mobilization.

    Growth is possible through productive activities. Sound economic policies and good leadership will stir the states away from the financial crisis that often cripples some states, make them borrow funds for recurrent expenditure, and neglect critical Human development activities that will improve the people’s lives. New State Governors must realise they cannot focus on one development aspect and completely neglect the rest, which is counterintuitive and anti-productive. The governors must cover simultaneously and concurrently critical areas of development such as quality education, quality healthcare for all, good security, and job creation. We have passed the era of providing basic infrastructure (roads, flyovers, beautification of city centres) as the only development. Development must be holistic and improve people’s living standards, and anything short of this is unacceptable.

    I congratulate all the elected governors, irrespective of whether your election was flawed or not, and implore them to be courageous and determined to make an impact. The task ahead of developing Nigeria is enormous and calls for selfless leadership and sacrifice. I hope for healthy competition among the governors to outperform each other. They should learn from each other to do the right thing and shun all forms of greed and reckless impunity that have marred some governors. I advise them not to become little emperors and sabotage state institutions for their selfish interests. Each governor must set up a team of experts to determine the best strategy to harness the state’s tremendous economic, social, and political potential. There are no excuses this time for failure. Developing Nigeria is a task we must accomplish, and state governors are critical stakeholders and catalysts in shaping a new Nigeria. We have a young population that we must engage in for greater productivity. The consequences of allowing our youth to wallow unproductively are dire to consider. The governors must allow for checks and balances and make for a healthy function of legislature and judiciary in the state. They must create an enabling environment for growth and development and support the private sector to grow. The problem between the government and the private sector now is caused by the excessive taxation imposed on the private sector. I sincerely hope that the new set of governors will change the Nigerian narrative only if they are ready to face the task of making Nigeria great.

  • Youth and “Obidients” afterwards – By Dakuku Peterside

    A critical element of the 2023 general election is the intensity and electricity of the Nigerian youths’ participation in the electoral process. Statistics may not fully capture or contextualise youth involvement in the 2023 national electoral process.  The youth energy and involvement this time around deservedly forms a new chapter in post-1999 democratic politics. And we are all witnesses to their sheer determination to seize the moment and change the political orthodoxy.

    For obvious reasons, the Nigerian youths are victims of a political system and leadership that failed them, and they have suddenly risen from slumber to challenge the system and lead the fight to change things through political participation. This is evident in the last election. From the campaigns, voting, and post-voting phases, youths have been emotionally, physically, and psychologically involved. A cursory look at their conversations and dialogues in private, public, social, and online spaces demonstrates the extent of their zest for political change. No other youth group exemplified the tenacity of purpose and the desire for change like the “Obidient Movement”.

    Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate in the last presidential election, is not new to Nigerian politics. He is an old horse, a veteran in the political scene of Nigeria. However, he was great at reading the nation’s political mood, especially the youths clamouring to change the status quo. He rode on the frustration and sentiments of the masses for change. He positioned his messaging and movement to fit the country’s mood, wittingly crafting messages that resonated with youths about the need for structural and procedural changes within the system to bring about the needed changes the youths hoped for. He simply filled a leadership vacuum for a youth movement that pre-existed his presidential political aspiration. He demonstrated to the youths that he was a leader with the motivation, courage, character, and conviction to help fulfill their dream.

    This was sweet to the ears of many Nigerian youth, but especially to an already militant youth movement (the ENDSARS movement and others) who quickly aligned with Obi and his philosophy and were ready for the first time to look for change through the democratic political process. Their devotion and emotional attachment to the “Obidient movement” could be seen in the outcry and frustrations among the youth, who voted massively against the status quo after INEC declared Bola Ahmed Tinubu the winner of the presidential election and the president-elect of Nigeria. Social media is awash with comments from young people whose hopes are dashed, and many are pondering what next step to follow.

    The strength of the “Obidient movement” is further seen in the adoption of it by youths across the country from different ethnic and religious backgrounds and various social and class strata. Even in more traditionalist Northern enclaves, youths defied their folks and, against all odds, identified with the Obidient movement. This is significant because it marks the beginning of the rise of new Nigerians who are happy to defy and challenge the distinctive political culture of their communities. They believe in a new Nigeria. This new generation is driven by democratization of education and technology that allow youths to connect in ways almost impossible a decade ago. Primordial sentiments about religion and ethnicity do not hold back this generation of enlightened youths. They are galvanised by one purpose – to change the status quo. This generation of youths can rightly be tagged “the liberation generation”. We are seeing the beginning of a socio-political movement that is hell-bent on taking Nigeria through a new path because they are dissatisfied and left behind by the current system. It is still gaining momentum and viciously looking for ways, albeit legitimate, to influence political change in Nigeria.

    I do not doubt that this ambitious youth population will most likely sustain the momentum of this movement. They may be dismayed by the electoral outcome and may be re-evaluating their strategy to achieve real change. However, this is a rare opportunity to press the reset button and accelerate the momentum for sustainable socio-economic and political change in Nigeria. Momentary setbacks are not enough to stop the speed, and youths are poised to ramp up the pressure until they achieve meaningful progress in their quest for change.

    The law of conservation of energy states that energy cannot be created or destroyed. Based on this physical law, it is self-evident that the energy of youths that powered the “Obidient movement” cannot be destroyed, and it may just move from one form to another. The vital questions are: can this youthful energy be sustained for another four years, or will it only resurrect in another election cycle? What other legitimate means will youths employ to ramp up the pressure for change before the next election? Unless the incoming government does something different and urgently, too, the season of discontent will not go away soon.

    A country’s youth is the most mobile and dynamic segment of society. If the government do not respond urgently to issues that led to coalescing of forces in the “Obidient movement”, the youth movement will acquire more significant momentum. The outcome is usually not predictable. Youth worldwide has influenced change through action fuelled by greater political awareness and technology. The Arab Spring of the 2010s, the civil rights movement of the 1960s and the Black Lives Matter movement come to mind. The Obidient Movement may draw strength from these and similar examples in other countries where the resilience of the youth movement had paid off and brought about change.

    We can see the potency of youths’ involvement in the spectacular performance of Peter Obi and the Labour party in the last elections. Only ten months ago, they were dismissed by mainstream politicians as having no structure and only existing in social media. Although Peter Obi and Labour party did not win the presidential elections, they are forces to reckon with in Nigerian politics today. He won in eleven states and the Federal Capital territory. Some of these states, like Lagos state, are the stronghold of the other parties, with all the paraphernalia and structures of the states in their control. In most states, Labour Party barely existed ten months ago, much more to have any political structure and network for a power struggle.

    History has shown how much such movement displaces existing political parties to become dominant in a brief time. For instance, the Labour Party is the main centre-left political party in the United Kingdom today. It is a Social democratic party that evolved from the Trade Union movement. It overtook the Liberal Democratic Party in the early 20th century to become one of the UK’s two main political parties. Like the Labour Party of the UK, can the obidient movement renewed Labour Party in Nigeria displace any of the two major political parties? Only time will tell.

    It is not yet Uhuru for the Obiedient led youth movement. The actions and inactions of the incoming administration will either soothe the frayed nerves of the youths or exacerbate the tension. The youths have entered a political liberation mood. Therefore, everyone in the new administration must demonstrate to the youths that it is not business as usual and must work hard to start tackling the demands of these youths, including employment, security, education, and better hope for their future in Nigeria. The youth movement will become stronger and even more menacing if they do not do these. Fortunately, the youth have been largely democratic and has resisted any tendency to be violent and destructive. Let us tame the “beast” before it grows beyond our control and consume us all.

    The election’s demographic outcome has raised the urgency that the incoming government needs to apply to address the level of frustration among youths in the land. It is either youths planning to “JAPA” or poised to stay and fight the orthodoxy through any means possible, including political means. The issues that gave rise to the Obidient movement are still here. The new government must address these issues and give our youths hope for the future of this country. In a country where more than 70% of its population are youths, we should harness these youths’ energy, talents, and skills to build the nation. This government must embrace the youths and involve them in solving most Nigerian problems. The incoming government must identify competent and patriotic youth leaders and use them to catalyse Nigeria’s development.

    Fortunately, the president-elect and Vice president-elect are leaders known for using the best young talents in leadership. They have groomed many young leaders that have made a national impact in various fields, and I implore them even to go further to engage youths to tackle the youth problems in Nigeria. Only these will ameliorate the anger on the streets and calm the growing frustrations among the youths who are fed up and angry with the system, its leadership, and its processes. The president is the father of the nation and must listen to his children. The new Nigeria he is building is more for these youths than for his generation. Therefore, he must not view these youth movements as a threat or a danger to his system. Instead, he must see them as opportunities to work with youths to build a better, more significant, and safer Nigeria for all.

  • Judicial intervention as extension of 2023 elections – By Dakuku Peterside

    The last presidential and National Assembly election was as crucial to our democracy as it was controversial. A lot was riding on it, delivering more drama than anticipated. Our present reality is that going by the posturing of key political gladiators, the 2023 presidential and National Assembly elections have triggered direct judicial intervention as the final phase of the electoral process. This is fine. At least, it is the only legitimate channel to address grievances against the conduct of the elections and to seek redress.

    Two major political parties, PDP and LP presidential candidates have made it clear they are approaching the courts to “correct what was not properly done” on 25th February. Apart from the two presidential candidates, many National Assembly candidates have also indicated an interest in approaching the courts. Without claiming to be a prophet, the number of cases may be less than we had in 2019 because of the dwindling faith of contestants in the judiciary among other reasons, but the issues will be more contentious this time.

    These issues range from constitutional and electoral acts interpretations,  malfeasance, and criminal disruptions of polling processes which have made some question the validity of the electoral outcome.
    The assumption, based on INEC narratives, before the elections, was that we would have few reasons to drag the judiciary into the simple constitutional exercise of the people electing our Leaders. This hypothesis has turned out to be incorrect.

    Avoidable slips by INEC created these triggers for the option of judicial intervention. What is worrisome is not that political gladiators are approaching the court to help fix our electoral process and may help us “choose” our political leaders but that this will put our judiciary on edge. This is a Judiciary that, objectively speaking, cannot claim it is enjoying the best public standing before Nigerians. In an environment suffused with corruption, even in the judiciary, the democratic process is at risk if it must depend on judicial outcomes to determine the validity of electoral processes.

    One way to bring down democracy in any society or country is to have a compromised, incompetent, pusillanimous, and politically exposed judiciary. This invariably gives citizens only one option- self-help – the most common denominator for crisis and chaos for nations.  Examples abound where the collapse of proper constitutional processes yields failed states. Therefore, we will focus on the judiciary in the next few weeks to stabilize and salvage our democracy.

    Aside from the alleged malpractices during the elections, a few constitutional issues are at stake in this last election. Prominent among them is the contentious issue of 25 per cent of votes cast in the Federal Capital Territory( FCT) as part of the requirements to be declared winner of a presidential election and the position of the law on electronic upload and transmission of election results at the polling unit/booth level. The court will interpret these laws and establish whether INEC or any candidate or party breaks them. The court also must adjudicate on the claims filed by these candidates, which are in three broad categorisations: 1) Allegations of a “stolen mandate” in which other candidates claim that they won the elections based on their own collated results from the polling units by their agents and must be declared winners by the courts. 2) The candidates may be calling for cancellations of the election. 3) The court maintains the status quo and allows the president-elect and winner of the last presidential elections to lead Nigeria because the opposition could not prove their case, or the level of infractions is insufficient to have changed the outcome of the election.
    The national elections is technically over and the battle for consolidation of democracy has shifted to the courts. The judiciary must take all necessary steps to shield itself from being brushed by the tar of politics. Leaders of the bench must admit that they need much work to regain its reputation in the minds of Nigerians. No love is lost between Nigerians and judicial intervention in politics due to some judgements related to past political contests. The crisis of credibility afflicting the judiciary is evident to all and has taken a severe toll on the institution. It is trite to say that over time, the Nigerian court has not lived up to a decent reputation in most such electoral cum political cases.

    The impartiality of the courts and its principled stand on key politically related constitutional cum electoral issues should not leave anyone in doubt about the courage to do justice. The belief in the judiciary as the ultimate sanctuary of justice in a democracy is founded on the supposition that judges will be above reproach.

    Never in the history of Nigeria has the apex court cancelled, nullified, or changed the outcome of a presidential election. We assume that it was because no such cases of presidential elections before the Supreme Court have convinced it that there was a prima facia justification for such.
    However, we have a precedent in Africa of such cancellation. In the 2017 Kenyan presidential polls, the Supreme Court annulled the presidential elections result, citing irregularities and that the election had not been “conducted in accordance with the constitution”. This judgement was a landmark one and was reached to save democracy in Kenya.

    Admittedly, in a democracy, nobody can underestimate the judiciary’s role in correcting malfeasance. Advisedly, the court must allow technical issues to take the back seat and allow substantial justice to prevail. That is the only way we can correct a dysfunctional system and win the trust of Nigerians. This point is vital because in essential cases that attract the attention of the nation and citizens eagerly waiting for justice to be served, it is difficult for everyone to understand why legal technicalities will be the basis of judgements instead of the substance of the law. Only lawyers understand these technicalities, and decisions based on them are often difficult to sell to the public.
    Communicating judicial pronouncements to the lay audience have been the bane of judicial reporting in Nigeria and is one of the major causes of public distrust of the judiciary in recent times. These presidential election cases allow the court to show its power and clear separation from the executive and legislature. Their job is to uphold the constitution and the rule of law and not essentially a substitute for the collective will of the people expressed through their votes.  Any judicial decisions of the supreme court are final and can only be changed by itself or God. Therefore, the Supreme Court judges must be circumspect and convinced in their choices based on the laws and constitution of Nigeria from where it derives its powers.

    It may be convenient for electoral disputes at sub-national and sub-sovereign levels to be determined by judicial processes, as we have seen in cases where the Supreme Court has altered the destinies of governors and states. It is common and understandable that at this level, whatever decisions the supreme court makes may not undermine the State so much given that the States are intertwined and linked with the federal and, as such, can withstand the sudden change of governors by the Supreme Court. But at the apex national level, the presidency, for example, purely technical and legal arguments may not suffice. Judicial decisions come to be conditioned by higher considerations of jurisprudence, national interest, and national security. At that level, judges of the Supreme Court must protect the Nigerian State and its sovereign security over and above matters of justice concerning the rights of individual contestants for partisan pre-eminence. There must be a nation before partisan contestants acquire the right to win an election. Nigeria cannot afford to pour out dirty water with the baby. Nigeria’s existence and growth far outweigh the issue of who leads it. We must always remember that there will be another election in four years if Nigeria survives the furore caused by the last election.

    It is a pity that after all the plans, provisions of the electoral act that was greeted with fanfare by all Nigerians, and the promises of INEC to conduct a free and fair election in 2023 because of the BVAS and IREV provisions, we are still going to depend on the judiciary to determine the validity or otherwise of the polls. We will all admit that BVAS worked and contributed to more transparency and likely reduced disputation of electoral outcomes, especially in the national assembly polls. We must do a post-mortem of the election and learn from it to improve subsequent polls.

    And the Supreme Court and the judiciary must be conscious that all eyes in and outside the country are on them. They are carrying the hope of a nation and must not dash that hope.
    We look forward to a new Nigeria where judicial incursion into politics will be minimal, if not completely eradicated.

  • Echoes of a new beginning – By Dakuku Peterside

    Last Saturday’s presidential election marks a new beginning for Nigeria, if not literally, then clearly symbolically. Nigerian voters, defied hunger, Naira crisis and appropriated that moment as a clear point of departure from the past. They embraced the election as if their lives depended on it. The general high level of enthusiasm lifted voter turnout and reinforced confidence in democracy. Young people saw it as a chance to “get back their country”, plagued by bad leadership and underdevelopment. The fanfare and zest with which Nigerians trooped out in their numbers to perform a ritual that may not have rewarded them in the past but still managed to sustain their hope of a better future was  electric. The presidential election revealed a divided, disillusioned, and disaffected Nigeria. Despite whatever will be the election’s outcome, most Nigerians believe the electoral process is a radical improvement on previous exercises,considering the size and complexity of the country . Previous polls have been anticlimactic both in process and outcome.

    Nigerians hope that this election will usher in a genuine democratic leader that represents the choice and voice of the people. The elections were generally peaceful and orderly, save for pockets of skirmishes in flashpoint states where thugs disrupted the polls, carted away ballot boxes, or tactically disenfranchised voters.
    Regrettably, bad habits of thuggery and violent disruptions of the process resurfaced.Blatant violent hooliganism in states like Kogi, lagos and Rivers overwhelmed security arrangements.
    According to media reports and from the account of observers, youths turned out in their numbers to vote. Voters’ turnout from observation ,in general, may be better than in the recent past, where voter apathy was prominent, and there was a continuous decline in the number of voters in each subsequent general election. Most persons who observed the polls I have spoken to are cautiously optimistic that it would be a relatively free and fair election, thanks to the recent amendment of electoral act which gave legal backing to Bimodal Voter Identification System ( BVAS) and other technological devices. From snippets of results, old political fiefdoms seem to be crumbling . Nigerians have rejected politics of hate, violence, and intolerance. If this is the case, it will mark a watershed in the political history of Nigeria.

    Discerning persons must have observed four different echoes and reverberations with the elections. The first echo is that INEC prepared better this time around when compared with previous elections. The level of the organisation before and during the polls shows an improved INEC operation. INEC carried out voter sensitization, conducted mock exercises and reasonably assured the public of its best intentions . The use of technology was good, as voters can even find their polling units online. The identification method in polling units was remarkable, and we must commend INEC for even using the technology in remote parts of Nigeria. The BVAS technology generally worked ,with failure in few places. Overall, the quality of the election conducted has improved. This evidences that Nigerian institutions can work if we are ready to do the work required to improve them.

    However, there is also an elixir of mixed feelings about INEC’s preparation for this election. INEC allowed many familiar slip ups in logistics. Backup batteries for BVAS devices were not available in most places. INEC staff turned up late in a number of places. Voting started late or did not
    even take place in isolated instances. But given the tripartite problem of cash scarcity, fuel scarcity and infrastructural deficiency, one can only imagine the enormous challenge of organising this election in almost one hundred and seventy seven thousand polling units nationwide. Given the recurring logistics challenges in our elections, INEC must develop better ways of solving these problems to improve Nigerians’ voting experience. It is unfair that voters turned out to vote and either did not see INEC officials or the officials came late.
    This lead to some voters being disenfranchised completely, or voting spills over to the following day. Besides, INEC officials could not upload the results from the polling units. This is a  critical low point of the elections. Electoral fraudsters will probably “doctor” the results to their advantage— the same complaint all over the Federation.

    The second echo is the high turnout of youth voters. Traditionally, Nigerian youths are dispassionate with politics and the electoral process. This was a shame, given that they comprise a more significant part of the population. In previous elections, voter apathy among youths was high, and most young people would rather be doing anything else than queue to vote in elections. Previous election post- mortem analyses often lambast youths’ lack of interest in the electoral process. The number of young people engaged in this election is remarkable and marks a departure from the old. The overwhelming youth turnout reinforced the future as the domain of youth.
    This is significant in three ways: first, it may be a sign that the youths have suddenly realised that they have a part to play in selecting the country’s leaders. Youths’ engagement in social media has made them adept at sharing their political views and championing political ideas. The second is that this large turnout signifies rebellion against orthodoxy. Young people are dissatisfied with the status quo and have decided to influence their future through political mobilisation and participation. Students of political sociology may need to chart the youth’s political consciousness through the various conflicts between the young people and the system (institutions, agencies, government), as seen in the ENDSARS revolt and other pro-youth agitations. These movements have crystallised in youth political advocacy. The third is that the large turnout of youths signifies their willingness to use their strength in number to take back political control from older leaders who have captured power in Nigeria for a generation. We hope that the extension of this considerable youth turnout in the next few years will signpost the young presenting themselves in more significant numbers to be voted for and metaphorically taking back their country.

    The third echo is that many Nigerians have started demonstrating faith in the electoral process.
    There was also a higher than usual awareness of democratic rights as voters strongly pressed their rights and opposed those out to violate those rights. The level of political awareness is encouraging and remarkable. The mantra in this election has been that “your vote counts”, and with the new voting technology, election rigging is brought to a minimum. This has inspired confidence in many people to vote. This will deepen our democracy and its corollary good governance in Nigeria. It is also significant to note that this is the first election since 1999 where none of the presidential aspirants came from the military. Nigerian democracy is gradually growing away from the control and influence of the former military generals who captured power and have defined our politics for over fifty years. Nigerians in this election have demonstrated their love for democracy and are willing to participate when they believe in the process. I hope that subsequent actions and inactions of the political gladiators and institutions post-election will be democratic. The calling of the election result, the declaration of victors, the litigations and appeal routines, the transition process and forming of the new government are all flashpoints that must be followed with caution and due democratic tenets to sustain the democratic bubble this election has created.

    The fourth echo is that Nigerians want a new Nigeria and are full of new expectations from the incoming president. The new leadership faces high expectations from Nigerians who believe we are at the breaking point and things are no longer at ease. Nigerians expect the president-elect to chart a new course for the country towards economic, technological, social, and political regeneration that will improve the living standard of Nigerians. Nigerians are tired of suffering and living in the hope of a better Nigeria which honest
    leaders can build from our endowments. Whoever emerges as the president has his job cut out and must quickly act before Nigerians lose their patience. Whoever is declared victorious has no option but to embark on radical reforms on all fronts. He must initiate policies and programs that address youth concerns, particularly education, employment creation,  insecurity, infrastructure, and good governance.

    There is no doubt that Nigerians, both at home and abroad, are expecting a new and better Nigeria going forward. The election has sent echoes reverberating across time and space for a new beginning—a fresh start for more incredible things. Building the Nigeria of our dreams is a task for all and getting the leadership right is the first step towards achieving a greater Nigeria. We must continue with the passion and optimism of the election and put them to better use in productivity and innovation. I hope our youths are awake and in tune with the realities of our time. The future is for them, and they must work hard to build it. Economic and political participation is necessary for such growth. I implore all Nigerians to dare to dream of a better, greater, and prosperous Nigeria.

  • Just before the elections – By Dakuku Peterside

    Just before the elections – By Dakuku Peterside

    It is now a cliché that this election is a make-or-mar election for Nigeria. It is our way of saying this is a consequential election. The importance of this election has dawned on everyone, and unlike every other election before it, it is the first election post military era that the result is difficult to predict. There is a multiplicity of struggles between some simple and binary issues and some multifaceted issues. Some Nigerians are pitching this election as a contest between established orthodoxy since the current democratic dispensation in 1999 and the clamour for a new political order . Some are neither interested in any old nor new political order but want a political order that will solve the challenge of insecurity, poverty, unemployment and underemployment, and improve economic and social well-being .
    This group seems more result-oriented and endlessly analyses the presidential candidates to determine who is more likely to tackle the hydra- headed problems facing Nigeria, irrespective of whether he is of the orthodoxy or the new political order group.

    Unfortunately, because our electorate is still largely illiterate, some are transactional and mercantile about this election. For this group, this election is about buying and selling votes and maximising the total commercial value possible in the voting value chain in Nigeria. Against the background of Naira redesign policy or according to Progressive Governors, “Naira confiscation policy”,the contest of supremacy on this issue has shifted to the public space and Supreme Court . More fundamental is the fact that it is on the background of excruciating economic challenge that Nigerians will be making a choice in less than five days.

    About 74.72 million Nigerians who had collected their Permanent Voters’ Card (PVC), or 80% of 93.4 million registered voters, will on Saturday, 25th February head to the polling booths in what promises to be a pivotal moment for Nigeria. Elections will be held for National Assembly seats and the presidency, but all eyes are on the presidential ballot for good reasons. Whoever emerges victorious would have severe implications for the country’s future and Africa. Many people must have made up their minds about whom to vote for. They must have made this important decision based on numerous factors, some logical and noble, others primordial and sentimental and may be superstitious ignorance. This notwithstanding, performing the civic task of voting is essential to keep our democracy going. Nigerians are quite optimistic that this will be a comparatively free and fair election because of what INEC has put in place . We hope, too, that the best presidential candidate wins the election. However, what should be the priorities of the average voter as we go to the polls to elect the president?

    Nigeria has not had the best leadership, which impacts the country’s fragile state and citizens’ economic life. The Nigerian problem, at best, can be reduced to a leadership problem. The quality of leadership a country gets directly correlates with the quality of leaders it has. Leaders who selflessly serve the interest of their people, leading the country to a clearly defined vision that is tangible, measurable and specific. Nigeria needs a leader that will lay the foundation for harnessing the vast potential of Nigeria and push it to be among the top 10 economies in the world within the next few decades. A leader that stops our sliding into the abyss and reverses the trend to growth and prosperity that will improve the lives of every Nigerian. A leader of the people, voted by the people and is for the people. We need this leader, and we need it now!

    The first priority of the average voter is to identify who among the contending presidential candidates truly represent such a leader. Using their knowledge of each presidential candidate’s antecedents and prior experiences in leadership, voters can judge whom this presidential candidate is and vote for him based on their conscience.

    The second priority of the average voter is to identify and vote for a presidential candidate capable of addressing the most critical challenges confronting Nigeria as a nation. A significant challenge for voters is identifying a leader powered by vision and purpose . Nigeria seems directionless, and every effort made by existing and subsequent governments yielded less-than-expected results at best and negative impacts at worst. We need a leader that will define what kind of future our country will have. A leader that will provide clear direction for the country and galvanise everyone to share and work for that future. The question is who, not which party, can best guarantee the future we deserve.

    Therefore, before casting your vote, you must be sure that the candidate can envision a future for the country, that his vision of the future aligns with yours, and that he can start the country on the road to that great future. The questions every voter must consider are: what kind of future do I want for Nigeria? Does this align with that of the presidential candidate I want to vote for? Does the candidate have the qualities, character, knowledge, skills and experience to fulfil this dream? Your answer to these questions will guide you towards the right choice.

    The third crucial challenge for the presidential candidate is having the capacity to address the problem of disunity and lingering agitations of marginalisation and distrust among the various groups making up Nigeria. The candidate to vote for must be able to promote and strengthen our unity and nationhood. Presently, this election poses the most severe test of the unity of Nigeria. For the first time in this post-1999 democratic experiment, we have three major contenders for the presidency position, representing the three major ethnic groups and two major religious groups in Nigeria.

    Only a free, fair and credible election on Saturday will lay the foundation to douse the emotional sentimentalism that may ensue after the polls. The critical question is, who among the candidates can promote and strengthen our seemingly fragile unity? Who among them is a true Nigerian that will carry everyone along and challenge the pervading feelings of superiority or marginalisation by groups or sections of the country? The answer to this question is vital for voters to choose and vote for the next president.

    The fourth challenge is for the candidate to have the clarity of vision and proven capacity to address intractable insecurity, massive unemployment, fantastical corruption, and devastating multidimensional poverty. These challenges have been the bane of Nigeria since independence, and it seems to be getting worse by the day. A content analysis of the electoral promises of Nigerian leaders from independence until now reveals that these problems have been there all this while. Political leaders in different shades, regimes, and dispensations have promised to eradicate these ills but failed woefully. We need a leader that will surmount these seemingly insurmountable problems.

    Only then shall we make progress. We need a leader who understands the link between economic security and social security – one cannot exist without the other. Therefore, we need a leader who will improve our economy through good infrastructure, sound economic policies, a business-friendly environment, high productivity, and a stable, moral, and ethical social and judicial system that drives national progress. A voter must ask: who among the candidates can tackle, most radically and definitively, the four issues of insecurity, unemployment, corruption, and
    poverty?

    This election is the most technology based in Nigeria’s history. The need to deviate from the electoral malpractices of the past has led Nigeria to adopt the most modern electoral technology used in an election in democracies in the world. This is the first time in a presidential election in Nigeria that the BVAS and online transmission of result technology is adopted, and this has increased people’s hope for a transparent election with the future looking bright for credible elections. This hope has led many voters to believe their votes will count and therefore have power.

    This will likely lead to a high turnout for voting on Saturday. The body language and rhetoric of the president show that he is eager to leave a legacy of electoral transparency before he leaves office. This, too, is fuelling a quest for ownership of PVC and using it to vote in elections. It is noteworthy, too, that the president is championing moves to truncate any chances of buying the presidency and monetising the electoral process through vote buying or financial inducement to the INEC officials. This election, hopefully, will live up to its bidding of being the most accessible and fair election in Nigerian general election history.

    The international community expects a credible, free, and fair election. As one of the biggest democracies in the world, the outcome of Nigerian elections reverberates worldwide. A successful election in Nigeria will strengthen democracy in subsaharan Africa and serve as counterforce to the growing appetite for coups and unconstitutional means of changing government in the region. A crisis in Nigeria would have far reaching migration and refugee implications for the entire continent of Africa. We need credible and peaceful elections more than ever at these perilous times when global politics and alignments are shaky, especially given NATO – Russia, brouhaha .

    As voters perform their civic responsibility on Saturday, it is an opportunity to choose between different options, not only candidates but also what they represent versus what we want. It should not be about religion, region, ethnicity, and party but about the future of our country. The next president must have the capacity and character to change Nigeria for good. Your vote counts! Vote by vote, and election by election, we will rebuild Nigeria into the country of our
    dreams.