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Tag: Dakuku Peterside

  • The poverty narrative: Federal versus State Governments – By Dakuku Peterside

    The poverty narrative: Federal versus State Governments – By Dakuku Peterside

    Poverty is all around us. You see it in all aspects of our lives. It is so ubiquitous that it has been ingrained in our collective psyche. We seem to have accepted it as inevitable and use it to explain our personal and collective reality. It is one condition many people work and pray hard to overcome, yet we seem not to make any meaningful progress. We have more poor people now than at any other time. Poor Nigerians are the majority , from big cities to rural Neighbourhoods. Even the minority well-off people suffer from the “poverty tax” levied on them by poor relatives, family members and friends. Statistically by 2018, we are the poverty capital of the world.

    There is a famous saying in Nigeria, an untested hypothesis or supposition, that if you do not want a matter dealt with conclusively, set up a committee, which will naturally lead to several other committees till infinity. The same applies to an issue nobody wants to take responsibility for or address. The most popular strategy, evasive as it is , is to blame some phantom body, which will also blame another  body, and at the end, nobody will take responsibility, and nothing will be done. This script has found expression in the blame game between the federal and state governments on the seemingly unconquerable affliction of poverty, which is cancerous in Nigeria. One can easily argue that more people die because of poverty than any other cause of death in Nigeria.

    There is a consensus by all Nigerians on our puzzling state of poverty. All available data points to the fact that most Nigerians live below the poverty line. However, the ordinary man’s experience on the street is hellish . In early 2018, Nigeria ingloriously overtook India as the country with the most significant number of extremely poor people. The 2022 Multidimensional Poverty Index survey reveals that 63% of persons in Nigeria (133 million people) are multidimensionally poor. The same Global Multidimensional Poverty Index 2022 for India shows that as many as 415 million people exited multidimensional poverty in India in 15 years (2005/06 to 2019/21), with the incidence of poverty showing a steep decline from 55.1% to 16.4%. More worrisome is that while global poverty is reducing, the reverse is the case here as more Nigerians migrate towards poverty. Why is this the case?

    The first reason is that poverty has been weaponised as a form of control of people by a minority elite class that is feeding fat on Nigeria. This political and business elite class have never had it so good, and they are bent on keeping the status quo. They perpetuate poverty through corruption, poor governance, poor leadership, lack of infrastructure, lack of access to quality education, poor quality health care , dearth of economic opportunities ,lack of shelter, hunger and food insecurity, and weak moral and ethical standards. The summation of the generally poor state of everything in Nigeria is the poverty of the majority. Even the morbid fear of poverty by some in the elite class forces them to engage in primordial and wanton wealth accumulation without a corresponding value creation, leaving the system warped.

    There is no genuine commitment by the leadership class to allow for the “prosperity of all” and reduce poverty in Nigeria. The local government and the state (subnational entities} are the nearest to the people and are expected to be at the forefront of confronting poverty within their areas. All their policies and programmes must be tied to growth and development that reduces poverty and improves residents’ living standards. The state government must champion the economic growth and human capital development in the state and ensure that factors of production within its area are utilized efficiently and effectively for productivity and growth and, where possible, wealth created is redistributed to reduce extreme poverty of some. poverty exists where there is low productivity. States must provide an enabling environment for production and create opportunities for their residents to be optimally productive. In Nigeria, state governments are doing the opposite.

    Some engage in counterproductive actions.

    The state governments have been irresponsible in project and programme initiation and execution as there is often no linkage to the human development index. Again, they need effective oversight from the state assemblies to keep them responsible. The legislatures have been captured at the subnational levels by the executive, and they are next to useless; hence governors can do as they like. No one holds them accountable for their policies and programmes or measures their effectiveness.

    Their increasing reliance on federal allocation for income rather than economic activities like agriculture and industrialisation, which will spur rural development, contributes to escalating poverty. Their priorities are often not right and should ordinarily  be tailored to address the root causes of poverty. The local governments are moribund and dead in most cases. They are, at best, appendages of the state government and are controlled by the  respective state governors. This is the sad reality of our current condition in Nigeria.

    China, the acclaimed hero of the world’s most successful poverty-reduction effort successfully reduced the number of people living below the poverty line in cities to insignificance and decreased the number of rural people below the official poverty line from 775m in 1980 to 43m in 2016. China is working hard to eradicate poverty soon wholly. What did China do? The China government focussed on agriculture, capacity building and industrialization, specifically focused on certain farm produce using modern science and technology, developed businesses and industries that will use the farm products as raw materials, and built infrastructure to attract people to move to the area and create new cities.

    The Fujian province is an example. The bottom-to-top poverty alleviation model is very effective, especially where there is a genuine effort from government and business underpinned by great altruistic poverty reduction philosophy.

    The town has been the epitome of the philosophy of “common prosperity” for decades. The per capita net income has risen nearly 30-fold in the past 26 years. The Gobi Dessert wine industry is booming, and specific industries, such as mushroom and wolfberry farming, are attracting young people to return to their hometowns to start businesses. The village, with a population of 8,000 residents 20 years ago, was turned into a demonstration town accommodating over 66,000 residents, whose annual disposable income soared from 500 yuan ($77.53) before the relocation to 14,961 yuan ($2,320) last year.

    Back to the needless argument on who is responsible for poverty , it is pointless shuffling blames as to which tier of government is responsible for our poverty burden . All tiers are in-fact responsible. I believe the Federal Government has the greater responsibility for containing poverty because they oversee financial and fiscal policy, which have implications for the economy at large. The FG has yet to be sincere in dealing with poverty, and it provides cosmetic and lips service solutions to poverty. The same policies that will grow Nigeria are the same policies that will eradicate poverty. Nigeria’s development and poverty eradication are entwined. One cannot happen without the other.

    The different tiers of Government must increase the quantity and quality of the “pie” and then worry about how to share it equitably. Through its policies and projects, the FGN must create the enabling environment for economic growth through improved governance at all levels, including strengthening institutions to deliver services more effectively and efficiently. And provide capacity building both in human capital and infrastructure, increase access to economic opportunities for all, especially the poor, and improve fiscal decentralisation and socioeconomic restructuring where possible.

    I vehemently believe that Nigerians do not care about who is responsible, and they want poverty addressed. It is the serial failure of different levels of government to provide the building blocks of poverty eradication that has led to the ballooning poverty . The present narrative on which tier of government front-loaded poverty in Nigeria is simply political, unhealthy, and diversionary.

    What is not disputed is the prevalence of poverty and its worsening dimension. The resolution to this debate on whether the states or the federal government is responsible for the ballooning  poverty is unlikely. All tiers of government are responsible to different degrees. The challenge is who will come forward with an innovative solution to address the pervading and pervasive poverty?

    The literature on poverty eradication is filled with various models adopted by different countries to fight and defeat poverty, from the rise of the Asian Tigers of the late twentieth century (Japan, South Korea, Singapore, to the modern miracles of Dubai, Malaysia, China and India, there are many examples to imitate. This begs the question of why Nigerian leaders have failed to imitate leaders of these countries and eradicate or ameliorate poverty in Nigeria. With our vast human and material resources, one wonders why we have refused to grow our economy and lift many citizens from poverty. I used the word “refused” to buttress the fact that our state of poverty is our choice, consciously or unconsciously. Most Nigerians can adequately articulate the causes of our poverty and even proffer solutions. Poverty is the lived experience of many and not an academic or intellectual exercise or construct. Why must something well-known and so perversive be so elusive to solve? Nigeria needs leaders committed to Nigeria’s economic growth and development with an eagle eye focus on eradicating poverty. Only then will we stop the blame game and tackle the challenge for the benefit of our posterity.

  • Undecided voters and 2023 elections – by Dakuku Peterside

    Undecided voters and 2023 elections – by Dakuku Peterside

    Nigerian politicians are notoriously optimistic. That is a source of energy for them, but it also blurs out their  reality. The optimism of the average Nigerian politician often conflict with the disillusionment and pessimism of the average Nigerian. As the country prepares for the 2023 general elections, politicians will give permutations that put their candidates and party ahead of others. They believe their understanding of the different constituencies and demographics is nearly unassailable. One constituency that is growing but political parties pay little attention to is the community of undecided voters.

    In this forthcoming 2023 election, where especially in the presidential election, there seems to be a three-horse race that has polarised the nation and forced some even to predict a run-off election, the importance of undecided voters is evident. All parties are campaigning not only to galvanize their bases but also to woo undecided, swing, and floating voters to support their sides. Whether undecided voters are receptive to campaigns and how they end up voting—if they turn out at all—often proves pivotal in deciding elections.

    Recent polls show that there are high number of registered voters who are undecided. ANAP foundation commissioned an opinion poll released in September 2022 that has this to say about undecided voters; “Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 32% and 15%, respectively”. ANAP’s poll findings are corroborated by the results of another poll conducted by Bloomberg News in the same month of September, which suggest that the percentage of undecided voters is around 17 to 45% depending on whether you add those who refuse to reveal their candidate of choice or not. Yet other data from NexTier poll conducted among rural-based voters in 12 states further suggest that 19.8% of voters or one-fifth of voters polled are yet to make up their minds. The reasonable inference to draw from these three credible polls is that undecided voters may turn out to be the underrated decider of the direction the pendulum of the 2023 elections will swing.

    In ordinary parlance and applicable in other climes, undecided voters are not sentimentally attached to any political party, have not decided whom to vote for in the elections or are politically inactive. In the Nigerian context, it means this and more. It includes those disillusioned with the current system, structures and actors, who are not convinced that parties and candidates are in no material way different from the current leaders. This group hardly votes, and when they do, they tend to vote for anti-establishment parties or candidates that offer them hope of changing or overhauling the current political orthodoxy. Also, it includes professionals and first-time voters with no ethnic bias, who prefer to objectively analyse the country’s situation and choose the candidate they believe best represents their idea of the ideal. This group are not bugged down with party affiliations and ethnoreligious bias. They are young, urban, and dynamic. Although not very politically astute, they are interested in influencing governance through their votes, and any candidate or party that convinces them that they share similar values and aspirations wins their votes. Besides, it also includes a nuanced group that is peculiarly Nigerian, and they wait for money, patronage and clientelism as the desideratum and inducement for choosing whom to vote for. Unfortunately, this group is substantial because of the economic situation in the country and past experiences with politicians.

    This divergent categorization of undecided voters makes it very difficult for campaigners to target them effectively and influence their voting decision. It is often difficult to simultaneously narrow core issues of interest to various undecided voters. Identifying their core “hunger” tip them towards voting at the election and voting for a particular candidate or party. We are noticing in the election campaign, especially the presidential election campaigns, that no candidate has made them a core electoral group to target, and we have yet to see any campaign strategy that aims to convert votes from this political demographic.

    Campaigns are less issue-based and often target the electorate based on ethnic, urban-rural dichotomy or religious sentiments, which heats the polity and fans  the embers of our fault lines as a country. I am bold to say that such trivializing of campaign messages because of intemperate languages and innuendos has alienated more voters, and more are yet to make up their minds on whom to vote for because they are not adequately informed about candidates’ policy thrust and ideologies to make decisions as to who to vote or not.

    What do these undecided voters want?

    What undecided voters want to make up their minds to participate in voting and decide whom to vote for is simple, depending on what is making them undecided. For undecided voters waiting for good campaign information on issues facing the country and possible solutions from all candidates to make up their minds, they need vital information and a clear roadmap on how candidates intend to tackle challenges facing the country. Unfortunately, more is required to cover most undecided voters sufficiently. Unfortunately, some undecided voters can only vote for someone because of clear direction from their political patrons and leaders who decide whom to vote. These leaders either use loyalty to group interest , monetary enticement or political patronage to influence their choice. This is dangerous for our democracy. The physical manifestation of this phenomenon is seen in the vote-buying exercise. And this has become the bane of our elections. When vote buying happens, the voter has sold their inalienable franchise to a candidate irrespective of the candidate’s pedigree, leadership experience, and an understanding of the country’s problems and how to solve them. INEC, in collaboration with the federal government and other stakeholders, to minimize, if not wholly eradicate, vote buying in the 2023 elections.

    Election is a game of number. The higher the number of votes a candidate wins, the better the candidate’s electoral fortunes. Undecided voters, when converted, give the candidate the extra votes he needs to win the election. This is especially important in a tight race where the vote margins for victory are so small. The 2023 general elections promise to be a tight race given our political realities, especially the nature and calibre of the presidential candidates of the major political parties. This is the first time in this democratic dispensation that the presidential candidates of the three major parties are from the major ethnic groups in Nigeria. This is also the first time in this dispensation that a Muslim-Muslim ticket emerged. This has made this election, as seen in the campaign so far, an ethnoreligious contest and candidates are not helping matters because they are resorting to ethnicity and religion for political advantages. However, the undecided voters, with substantial margins of about 20-30% are still undecided. Any candidate that gets most of the 30 per cent undecided voter’s votes may win the election.

    The importance of undecided votes is evident in recent elections’ poor turnout. In the 2015 presidential elections, we had about 43.5% turnout, and the 2019 presidential elections had just about 34% turnout. Even in the recent off-cycle elections, the turnout is about 30%. With voter turnout hovering around  30-35%, serious engagement and mobilization of the undecided  will swing victory to a candidate. Besides, INEC confirms that newly registered voters, most of them are political neophytes with no party affiliations, are about 9.5 million. This number, when properly cultivated, may swing the votes to a candidate and lead him to victory at the polls. The sheer size of the undecided and newly registered voters mean it must be a gold mine for politicians in this election because, when properly harnessed, these votes will make the difference between winning and losing.

    We expect  that a significant number of voters will make up their minds during the campaign. So far, the campaigns could have been more impressive and the campaign could have been issue-based. The parties and candidates have at least 12 weeks to effectively woo these voters who may influence the outcome of the elections. They must develop real messages that speak to the concerns of those dissatisfied with the country’s current state of socio-economic conditions and provide credible alternative policy roadmap. Key actors seeking votes must build trust by attracting credible voices to campaign for the parties and candidates, as jesters cannot impress the public that has suffered serial disappointments. Influencers and celebrities will help but will not be an alternative to well-thought-out policy messages. Grassroots mobilization strategies cannot be replaced by hysteria, fanfare, street parade or opponents’ abuse. Our politicians can afford to be more serious than they are currently doing. The current situation does not inspire much hope. Candidates and parties must make it a priority not to neglect undecided voters. They hold the key to victory in this tight race to Aso Rock.

  • COP 27: The real deal at the Red Sea – By Dakuku Peterside

    COP 27: The real deal at the Red Sea – By Dakuku Peterside

    In the Holy books of the Abrahamic religions of Christianity and Islam, the Red Sea is symbolic as a place of significant events and the beginning of liberation from oppression. Will the Red Sea town of Sharm El Sheik be recorded in history as a place of significance in the quest of humanity to save our planet from self-destruction and climate justice? Time is perhaps the only answer.

    The 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference or Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC, more commonly referred to as COP27, ended on a high note on African soil, with some leaders from developing nations giving each other a high fives. But what was the deal in the Red Sea town of Sharm El Sheik, Egypt?

    Did God path the Red Sea for developing nations to pass through to the promised land? Is it yet Uhuru for developing countries who have been crying for climate change justice given that their contribution to the carbon emission is insignificant, yet they bear the brunt of the devastating effect of climate change? Are the rich industrial countries ready to commit to reducing carbon emissions and work towards the 1.5c temperature limits agreed upon globally as the point that will create a sustainable climate environment for our earth?

    One significant decision made at the Red Sea town was a vague agreement that rich countries should pay poor ones for climate-related “loss and damage”. This happened after nearly 30 years of back-and-forth and sustained pressure by the global south for climate justice .

    Still there are many unresolved issues, which may be beset or shaped by politics, diplomacy , science and of course economics .

    Take , for example , the loss and damage fund, which is the big takeaway of sub–Saharan Africa and other vulnerable countries from the Red Sea, the concerns are when will the transition committee thrash out the finer details ? What framework will be put in place for the generation and management of the fund? And who should pay for damages and on what basis since science has different empirical ways of reaching a decision? Who will benefit from the fund, and on what basis? Will the fund serve as a disincentive or incentive for rich countries to emit more gases?

    The historical trend points to the fact that these unseen unresolved contentious issues are the basis for why the fund may not see the light of the day nor deliver its desired outcomes, and therefore emerging countries should not celebrate too early, for they are not out of the Red Sea with any substance yet.

    Developing nations, particularly sub-Saharan African countries, left the Red Sea without asking these pertinent questions. At the Copenhagen summit in 2009, rich countries promised to supply annual climate financing of $100bn to developing countries by 2020 to help them slow climate change and resist its effects. What happened to that pledge? Did developing nations access the funds? The money that has been pledged is paltry: about $260m. And countries have yet to agree on who should pay and receive the cash. Under the bizarre terms of the UN’s climate convention, China—after America, the second-largest total emitter in history—would count as a “developing country” and be a suitable recipient.

    Another Pyrrhic victory at the Red Sea for African countries is the failure of COP27 to end fossil fuel use, a perceived victory for poor oil-producing nations. Incidentally, it was Russia and Saudi Arabia that mounted a vigorous campaign against ending the use of fossil fuels. Considering that rich western countries had, in the past two centuries, used more than their fair share of fossil energy for industrial power development, which is at the root of the current climate crisis, the pendulum of justice is in favour of poor oil-producing countries. The challenge for Africa is multiple. Our governments are yet to find enough fossil fuels for essential industrialisation. Developing alternative energy sources requires resources that most countries do not have. Yet they now must protect their populations from the adversities of climate change: flooding, excessive heat, deforestation, and higher energy costs.

    A keen observer would have expected that oil-producing developing countries of Africa that need revenue from oil and gas to transit would have been at the vanguard. What is the implication of the backing for oil and gas production for countries like Nigeria? Is it sustainable in the medium to long term? How can Nigeria and other oil-producing countries that are poor use this period of grace before the inevitable cuts on carbon fuel consumption to transition from reliance on fossil fuel products to a diversified product range for export to the rest of the world? Our transitional dependence on fossil fuel is further justified by the fact that fifty per cent of our people do not have access to power, so the base power is not even there. This is not to discountenance the fact that the days of fossil fuel usage are numbered.

    Developing nations and African countries need concessions on existing debts, benefits on imports of technologies for clean energy innovations and credits on funding for clean-energy research and infrastructure such as solar and wind energy fields.

    Climate change hits Africa more than other parts of the world, apart from small island developing states of the Caribbean. Sub-Saharan Africa emits negligible greenhouse emissions, yet we suffer the most from its impact. It affects almost all aspects of our lives, from agricultural productivity, heatwaves, humanitarian crisis, political crisis, and migration issues to population crises. Yet the worst polluting nations are not in a hurry to mitigate its impact on Africans. The multiplier effect of this climate change-induced problem is enormous, given the poor economic conditions of the people affected. With an already poor quality of living in most of sub-Saharan Africa, disaster has multiple impacts and often is damaging to a vast proportion. When faced with similar disasters, rich countries cope better and have the resources to bounce back to normalcy quickly. In developing countries, the impact of such crises lingers for decades, and the human cost remains a constant trauma in the collective minds of those who managed to survive.

    A few weeks ago, almost a quarter of Nigeria was flooded. This led to a loss of lives and property. Most communities lost all their livelihood, making life miserable for people already poor and struggling even in good times. There is fear that the recent flooding has threatened our food security and led to increased food prices, making an already bad inflationary situation worse. Unfortunately, but true, Nigeria did not access any of the existing climate change funds, whether for mitigation or adaptation, to the best of my knowledge. Part of the reasons is procedural complexities and limited technical knowledge. Building capacity in scientific knowledge, technology and politics of climate change is now urgent.

    All said ,the best scenario for sub-Saharan Africa is for the rich countries to reduce their carbon emission and make the world a better home for all. In addition, multilateral financial agencies like the IMF and World Bank should grant concessions to global south countries seeking assistance for investment in clean energy infrastructure. Africa’s response to the challenges of global climate change should be a combination of realism and clear-headed diplomatic engagement. Expecting humanitarian handouts and concessions is a regress to old begging bowl habits.

    It is time now to look closer at the finer details of the “loss and damage” agreement and start the process of passing through the red sea. The devil is often in the details. Beyond the soundbites and euphoria of agreeing on” loss and damage funds” lies the reality of mitigating the devastating impact of climate change-induced crisis.

    Whilst interrogating this reality, developing countries should also ruminate on their energy needs and to what extent they are willing to rely on clean energy, given that, as an emerging country, they need cheap energy to fuel their industrialisation. Emerging countries must not entertain any deal that will hamper this reality. We should remember that the energy consumption of the state of California is more significant than that of sub-Saharan Africa put together. In 2020 California consumed 6,923 trillion Btu whilst sub-Saharan nations consumed about 1570 trillion Btu. We need more energy for production and to improve the quality of life of the people. We must not mortgage the future of our unborn generation for any funds that want to limit our access to cheap energy.

    These convinced me that we are still at the tip of the red sea, waiting for God to part the sea for us to pass through. We have no choice but to force the hands of God as did Moses or Musa and hope He will part the Red Sea for his people to go. It is not yet Uhuru!

  • 2023: Battle between intemperate language, fake news and judicial rascality – By Dakuku Peterside

    2023: Battle between intemperate language, fake news and judicial rascality – By Dakuku Peterside

    The 2023 elections in Nigeria bring with them hopes and fears, expectations, and optimism for a better future. However, forces are fighting inadvertently to truncate the elections, imperil our nascent democracy, dim the light, and bring all our political calculations to nothing. These seemingly  imperceptible  forces are powerful, subtle, and distinct but not mutually exclusive. They include using intemperate language by  candidates, the preponderance of fake news and judicial rascality. Except for those who study historical patterns in our clime and other jurisdictions, you may not take note of the gathering storm. These unholy triune forces are powerful enough to cause mayhem and destroy our electoral process come 2023 if nothing is done. They can truncate our 2023 elections and our democracy.

    The first of these forces fighting to escalate violence, deepen distrust in the political process, and truncate the election, though not the most important, is use of intemperate language by politicians and their supporters. This has no party colouration and is beginning to define the nature and character of the 2023 elections. Politicians in this early stage of the campaign are resorting to personal attacks, vilifications, bickering, insults, and abuses of their opponents. Name calling ,ethnic and sectional expressions have replaced any form of serious engagement.  Recently, presidential candidates of all political parties have been using direct insulting or derogatory statements or  innuendos to vilify each other. Bola Ahmed Tinubu( BAT) has been a bout of jokes and caricature because of his perceived  ill health . Peter Obi recently jibed at BAT by claiming that some candidates have good health, verifiable classmates, certificates, and easily provable history alluding to the controversy regarding BAT’s early years’ history  and educational attainment . BAT, on his part, accused Obi of having IPOB supporters who have been vilifying him and spreading rumours about his health status and ability to function as a president. Obi has been accused of being agent of fake statistics. On the other hand, Atiku boldly asked northerners in a gathering in Kaduna not to vote for presidential candidates of Igbo or Yoruba extraction.

    These divisive and derogatory expressions  by presidential candidates are more than mere attacks that candidates make on each other during campaigns, as seen in mature democracies. The volatile venomous nature of these expressions  is seen in the offensive attacks using ill health ,human frailties or ethnic and sectional sentiments , which often are no-go areas in decent debates and are anti-culture. Often these intemperate words and innuendos breed contempt, disrespect, and calumny among politicians and more often, one intemperate statement elicits a response that is also intemperate, fuelling an unending vicious circle of hate, hurt and ultimately violence . It is a pity that this type of school field play has also filtered into other levels of the campaign, such as the governorship campaigns and National Assemblies race . Funny enough, Nigeria has electoral laws and an electoral umpire to draw attention to the rules and, if possible, help to implement the regulations or execute some form of reprimand or punishment within its powers under the established laws to protect the decency of the electoral process. The law is supposed to be blind and an axe, and it falls on any who breaks it without bias.

    Section 97, Subsection 1 of the Electoral Act prohibits candidates or parties from campaigning on religious, tribal, or sectional reasons to promote or oppose a particular political party or the election of a specific candidate. Subsection 2 adds, “Abusive, intemperate, slanderous or base language or insinuations or innuendoes designed or likely to provoke violent reaction or emotions shall not be employed or used in political campaigns.” The big elephant in the room is: has any political candidate or party ever been punished for breaking this law?

    The  clash of and preponderance of fake news, especially in social media, is the next deadly force mitigating a successful 2023 election. Although not absent in the traditional media, with their gatekeeping processes alert to such news sometimes, Fake news is the bane of our society. Nigerians are sentimental and emotional in the way we communicate according to work done by Erin Meyer. Increasingly, fake news is lethal, can wreck havoc on victims and can lead to violence , especially when it goes viral. Deliberately spreading fake news as a political campaign strategy is wrong and immoral. The proliferation of misinformation and weaponising phoney news threatens our democracy. This trend is one of the biggest threats to the peaceful pre-election and post-election conduct of the 2023 elections. And it has the potential to fragment the country and skew electoral outcomes. This calls to question the legitimacy of the electoral process and the leaders that emerge from it. Recently, there was a forged INEC letter claiming that the commission  is investigating APC presidential candidate, and no one has been prosecuted for that forgery and misinformation.

    I advocate for INEC and media houses to institute a fact-check hub to monitor fake news from parties, candidates, and their supporters. When any fake news is found, it must be quickly exposed, and facts declared for the benefit of the public. Everyone – voters, social media users, journalists, and media executives, must fact-check information before disseminating it. We should always question the source of information and verify the truthfulness of the facts presented and the authenticity of the source. I hope there will be a good enlightenment campaign by the National Orientation Agency, INEC, and the media on fake news and how to curb it so that people will be aware of it and have the skills to identify and destroy it. Law enforcement agencies must investigate sources of fake news and prosecute instigators for serving as a deterrent to other perpetrators of such dastardly act.

    The third force is the clear and present fear of judicial compromise . That the Judiciary is the last hope of the ordinary person is an accepted norm in a democracy . The Judiciary interprets the law, and we rely on the impartiality of the Judiciary for the system to work. One of the crucial jobs the Judiciary does is dealing with pre-election matters ,  electoral petitions and lawsuits. However, during elections, some judges pass anti-democratic and overtly compromised judgements beyond any sane person’s imagination. Such intervention is inimical to our democratic progress. When such  judicial rascality happens, democracy suffers, and people lose faith in the system. Some parties and candidates depend on judicial rascality to hold onto power. It is a doomed political strategy and is tainting the hallowed image of the Judiciary. A situation where a party sues another party because of the way its primaries are conducted. And prays the court to annul or disqualify all candidates for the election. It is disturbing when the court grants such a request and allows elections to be one-sided, with candidates having no real opposition. Democracy is about the choice of the people . Court-induced political wins outside people’s franchises are a slap on our democracy. In recent times, PDP in Rivers State has directly and indirectly instituted multiple suits against all the  other major parties and candidates seeking to disqualify their candidates for all elections with the hope that  the party  can cruise to victory without serious challenge. This worked for the PDP in 2019, and they are pushing to repeat a similar destabilising deed in the 2023 elections using the judiciary . Similar scenario is playing out in other states that bothers on internal affairs of political parties.  Effectively the judiciary cannot replace the democratic choice of the people.

    The leadership of the Judiciary must stand up to its responsibility to tackle judicial compromises . It must commit to being more organised and hold judicial officers accountable for  decisions that bothers on internal affairs of political parties and the democratic choice of the people . The CJN and National  Judicial Council must intervene and save our democracy from the hands of undemocratic people using judicial compromise  to steal people’s mandate. Many Judges are actively executing sound judgements for the benefit of society, and I highly commend them for their work in protecting our democracy. However, they should weed out the bad elements among them, especially at  the state  level where the executive arm exerts undue pressure on the Judiciary and use them as puppets in a puppeteer’s hands.

    It must be the aim of all stakeholders to tackle the problem of intemperate language, fake news and judicial compromises during our pre-election and post-election periods. All political parties and candidates for elections and their supporters must commit not to engage in hate speech, foul language, false accusations, and ethnically charged statements and any found doing so must face the full wrath of the law. Our existing laws are adequate to protect us from fake news, and we must enforce them at all costs. We must investigate any fake news that damages society and the people behind them prosecuted. The government, the media, regulatory agencies  and civil society must provide public education on fake news and how to identify them and stop the urge to spread it or share it.

    The unintended consequence of using intemperate language, the menace of fake news and judicial compromises,  is promoting violence and the truncation of the 2023 elections. The truncation of the 2023 elections will be the catalyst for Nigeria’s collapse and disintegration. Therefore, we must all play our roles in persuading and punishing politicians against inappropriate language, engaging all regulatory authorities to act against fake news, and appealing to our judicial officers to consider national interest above narrow personal interest.

  • Leadership is key to unlocking Nigeria’s growth potential – By Dakuku Peterside

    Leadership is key to unlocking Nigeria’s growth potential – By Dakuku Peterside

    Last week, this column discussed the need to rethink productivity and economic growth in Nigeria based on the presentation by foremost Economist Dr Ayo Teriba. This week, we shall look at leadership’s role in engendering a new economic growth model to give our country a leap forward.

    Nigeria’s adverse economic situation is stale news; many have accepted it as a norm that the country will continuously operate below its economic potential. This dire economic reality results from decades of bad economic policies and poor implementations, a chequered political history marred by a military incursion into politics, corruption, and the nascent difficulties occasioned by insecurity, economic sabotage, climate change, global pandemic crises and the Russian/Ukraine crisis. Nigeria is on her knees economically – with a high debt profile, poor revenue from the mono-product (crude oil) that is not even enough to service debts, inadequate foreign reserves, exchange rate crisis that has seen the value of the Naira hammered against other world currencies, high inflation, and high-interest rate.

    The Nigerian economic statistics are gloomy and are causing undue concerns for many stakeholders in the Nigeria project. Nigeria has navigated the murky waters of a financial quagmire for a few decades and has survived it, albeit with substantial economic bruises. The pervading sentiment is that no matter what happens, Nigeria will survive, things will continue as usual, and nothing will change for the better. William Pollard, a leading light in leadership, warned against this state of path dependency when he opined that “the arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.” The economic policies and actions that kept us in our current financial quagmire must change for meaningful progress. Nigeria does not need the economics of survival anymore; we need the economics of growth, prosperity, and decent quality of life for Nigerians.

    One fundamental problem that is destabilising our economy is the lack of liquidity. Our negative balance of payment causes this illiquidity because our receipts from exports are far less than the expenditure on goods imported from abroad. This leads to a dwindling of our foreign reserves and a concomitant scarcity of foreign currency to fulfil the needs for the importation of foreign goods and services. This scarcity creates a parallel market that often aids the destruction of the Naira value. The unofficial devaluation of the Naira makes the cost of foreign goods expensive, even more so given the inflation ravaging some of these countries’ posts Covid-19. Local and Imported inflation is the bane of our economy.

    The Nigerian government needs to make more money from oil revenue and taxes and rely less on borrowed funds to cover recurrent and capital expenditures. They need to cover the budget deficits with massive loans from local and international institutions with high-interest rates, and we are still determining how our children will pay for these in the future. Even in an era of increase in the price of oil globally, Nigeria did not benefit maximally from this because of the low volume of oil production and oil theft that stopped Nigeria from meeting its OPEC quota monthly. The non-oil sector contributes little to Nigeria’s income statement because the bulk of these trades is for primary products with little or no extra value added to them in the value chain, and such goods command less revenue in the international market, adversely affecting our income statement.

    Unlocking Nigeria’s growth potential underscores, the need to, among other things, improve its liquidity to stabilise the system and grow the economy. The government must stabilise the exchange, interest, and inflation rates to make meaningful improvements in our economy. The exchange rate regime is a function of our foreign reserve adequacy. The global economy offers two pathways to increase our foreign reserves. It is either you earn more from exports, or you attract more foreign direct investment (FDI). Nigeria has historically preferred the path of exporting more. However, from 2010 to date, global exports have stagnated and even declined because of weak commodity prices. This has affected Nigeria drastically.

    Most countries are relying on a heavy inflow of FDI, which is the economic model chosen by Saudi Arabia, Brazil, India,and others. These countries get more FDI to compensate for shortfalls in exports. Foreign Direct investors will only come to Nigeria with offers to invest equity in public assets and a suitable investment climate. We offered foreign investors an opportunity in the Nigeria LNG project, which yielded substantial investment outcomes. We also did that with the liberalisation of the GSM sector, and we could see the investment inflow.

    The interest rate is another crucial factor in productivity and driving growth. Financial institutions provide interest rates on loans to businesses they need to run or expand their businesses. The higher the interest rates, the less likely companies will borrow for expansion, and the lower the interest rates, the more likely the companies will borrow for operational and growth reasons. Individuals also borrow from financial institutions for personal loans, credit cards, or product loans. The lower the interest rate, the more likely individuals will borrow to purchase goods and services that help businesses expand, mainly if local companies produce the goods and services. Another impact of interest rates is that they often are benchmarked with savings rates. The higher the interest rate on loans, the higher the interest rates on savings. When interest rates on savings are high, people tend to save, but when it is low, people tend to invest, especially in the equity market.

    The exchange and interest rates are monetary instruments influencing the inflation rate. Nigeria needs to stabilise its revenue by expanding its revenue sources, financialising its assets – especially its real estate, infrastructural, and portfolio assets – and maximising value chains across the various productive sectors. It needs to upskill its workforce to have the required skills in the knowledge economy, where knowledge and innovation are the keys to greater productivity. Therefore, human capital development is crucial in unleashing Nigeria’s growth potential.

    Unlocking Nigeria’s growth potential requires new economic thinking by leadership in the public and private sectors. Only good leadership that understands how to open the great possibilities of Nigeria in line with global realities and using tools and resources that work will lift Nigeria from its economic quagmire. Therefore, the 2023 Elections are providing an opportunity for a change in leadership, and Nigerians must look for leaders who understand the destination Nigeria must go to for growth and prosperity and who have what it takes to take Nigerians there. The intention of making Nigeria great is not enough, capacity, and intellectual ability to deliver are critical. The time for transformational leaders in Nigeria is now. Nigeria needs leaders that create a vision and use highly skilled individuals rather than politicians to run the economy of Nigeria. Gather intelligent people and develop and implement ways to improve revenue, optimise assets, and efficiently manage our liabilities.

    It is the responsibility of leadership to provide opportunities and the responsibility of individuals to contribute towards maximising opportunities. The government, on its part, must completely overhaul the economic system and structures to favour liquidity. Just like cash flow is the blood of a business, the government’s fiscal and external liquidity is vital in stabilising the economy. All avenues to improve the government’s income must be explored and used to make the government constantly liquid and viable.

    On top of managing its monetary policies, the government must tighten its fiscal policies to grow the per capita income and increase employment while reducing unemployment . They must create a business-friendly environment where innovation and creativity thrive, and productivity is encouraged. Productivity happens within businesses, and any harsh, volatile, or challenging business environment is tough on companies and hampers their growth. The better the business climate , the more profitable the business is, and the more profitable a business is, the more it attracts FDIs with concomitant expansions and increases both in the balance sheet of companies and their income statements.

    The government should understand the direct correlation between economic disempowerment and socio-political problems in the country. This is especially the case with youths, who, when unproductive for a while, tend to engage in anti-social behaviours, low- and high-level criminality, terrorism, banditry, and secessionism. The government must develop a plan to absorb most of our young people through training in new skills and upskilling them to fit into the new economic reality that rewards innovation and creativity higher than mundane production. They must use fiscal and monetary policies to stabilise consumer and equity prices, enhancing national resilience.

    There is no gainsaying the enormous potential to unleash its growth potentials Nigeria has. For a long time, Nigeria has been a country of potential – potentials that are never actualised. It is only transformational leadership that will transform and overhaul the system. We need this leadership in 2023 more than at any other time. It is foolhardy to do the same thing hoping for a different result repeatedly. We need leadership with the knowledge, capacity, intelligence, and experience to midwife the greatest economic re-engineering the country has ever gone through. All other stakeholders must contribute immensely by improving the value chains within the production sectors, consuming responsibly, and creating superior value that will attract material, financial and human resources from all over the world to Nigeria.

    We look forward to a new Nigeria!

  • Productive people in a productive country – By Dakuku Peterside

    Productive people in a productive country – By Dakuku Peterside

    Recently, I was opportuned to listen to a presentation titled “Nigeria’s Economic Prospects” by one of Nigeria’s foremost Economists, Dr Ayo Teriba. He articulated Nigeria’s current economic woes and situated them in the global context of Post COVID era, European geopolitical tensions, and the resulting energy and commodity price crises. His overarching arguments and postulations are not only germane for a rethink of Nigeria’s economic trajectory but also a breath of fresh air in the current discussions on restructuring Nigeria’s economy for growth and prosperity.

    This essay and a series of others to follow result from the need to rethink our economic structure for productivity, in line with the global trend and current realities and not leave our economy to be decided by happenchance and outdated political economy theories, reminiscent of the industrial revolution era instead of the knowledge economy built more on innovation, than on production.

    Three of the leading presidential candidates for the 2023 general elections are talking of increasing productivity and export as the critical drivers of economic growth. A review of their economic thinking shows that they all believe Nigeria should engage in more agricultural and manufacturing production for internal consumption, import substitution and export.

    They emphasise production and the resultant increase in productivity and employment of human and natural resources as the blueprint for Nigeria’s economic growth. As simplistic and direct as this economic thinking is, the existing economic structure and the ones proposed by the presidential candidates are insufficient to put Nigeria on a growth trajectory.

    Nigeria must leapfrog industrialisation and connect with global innovation and financialization trends to succeed. Financialization is eclipsing industrialization. Financialization, according Thomas Polley of the Levy Economics Institue referring to a process whereby financial markets and institutions gain greater influence over economic policy and outcomes. Productivity in the post- industrial economy goes beyond income-centric optimization of production transactions for largest margins from local and foreign sales that was the hallmark of the earlier stages of industrialization. It is now much more about wealth- centric optimization of tangible and intangible asset portfolios for maximum balance sheet values that is the hallmark of financialization.

    The world has moved away from the past in which global commodity prices (crude oil inclusive) dictated the pace of growth of items on income statements into a new reality in which global equity prices plays the bigger role of dictating the pace of wealth growth on balance sheets. Global wealth has been growing much faster than global income since 2000, and this trend is largely expected to continue in the foreseeable future.

    The mixed outlook of the two global asset prices over the next half- decade underpins those expectations. The IMF projects that commodity prices, including crude oil, currently elevated by geopolitical tensions will fall steadily back to 2021 levels from 2023 to 2027, while we expect equity prices to continue the solid upward trajectory in the last decade through 2027.

    If the asset prices follow the projected paths, global exports could rise by about 50 per cent from US$22.4 trillion in 2020 to US$33.1 trillion by 2027, while FDI stocks could surge twofold from US$41 trillion in 2020 to US$79 trillion by 2027. Over the medium-term balance sheet gains look set to remain three to four times as large as income statement gains.

    It is in this context that it becomes more important for the presidential candidates to say more about what they plan to do about getting a fair share of the growing global pie of global FDI stock into idle public assets in Nigeria that spread across corporate, real estate, and infrastructure.

    We now must define productivity to include innovations that optimizes asset portfolios in addition to those that optimizes output transactions.The transaction model of productivity relies on the quantity and quality of goods and services produced and the revenue generated through internal consumption and export. Global trends now transcend this by embracing asset productivity. Optimizing assets involves unlocking liquidity from publicly owned place-based, space-based, and skill- based assets littered across corporate, real estate, and infrastructure sectors.

    So, instead of relying solely on products and income from agriculture, industry, and service, we should go after the place-based, space-based, and skill-based assets that are needed to generate output in these production-based sectors. Government should allow the inflow of FDI into the innovation sectors of the economy that productive sector rely on to thrive. We see this in Nigeria’s Fintech sector, where small and medium industries attract billions of dollars as FDI. The government should collaborate with the private sector to open other innovation sectors for FDI.

    Saudi Arabia’s exemplifies this trend. The country has historically focused on creating wealth through income-centric optimization production and exports, not caring much about creating wealth through optimization of asset portfolios. But the weakening of global commodity prices since 2014 in the face of strengthening global equity price prompted the country to take steps to financialize its public asset portfolio from 2016.

    It was in this process that it listed ARAMCO in the market through an initial public offering in 2019. The market value of ARAMCO is more than$2 trillion now,making it one of the biggest companies in the world. Considering that Saudi Arabia’s GDP is only about US$850 billion now, it is fair to say that Saudi Arabia’s balance sheet now contributes more to its national wealth and net worth than its income statement.

    We can also see this with American technological behemoth, APPLE. It takes direct control of the upstream/conception and downstream/distribution phases of its value chain where its growing stock of tangible and intangible skill-based, and space-based assets ( including patents, brands, creative designs, and it’s closed digital marketing platform ) differentiates its offerings but outsources the midstream assembling/production stages of its devices, where operating procedures are hard to differentiate, to third parties offshore. Apple is worth over $2 trillion.

    The next is the place-based optimisation. All stakeholders must unlock liquidity by optimising the market value of public spaces, real estate, cities, transit routes, tourist centres, farms, factories, and other physical capital. Government should review its real estate holdings to unlock the liquid value attached to them. It may make sense to commercialise real estate with substantial commercial value due to its location rather than keeping them as government buildings serving a need that count for less.

    For example, the British government moved prisons from inner cities across the UK to more economic locations and repurposed the old sites for redevelopment into luxury residential or commercial real estate as part of their efforts to get the best value from public real estate portfolio.
    Dubai is another example. It developed its real estate market, tourism, and business centres to attract people from around the world to visit, work and live in Dubai. Optimization of Dubai’s portfolio of place- based assets contributes more to its wealth and net worth than than producing and exporting oil. Unlocking the value in place by Amenitizing leisure and leisure activities is essential.

    Optimising spaces also fuels productivity. Companies obtain ownership rights, patents, licenses, connectivity, digital platforms that create significant values for other producers and consumers. Companies like Google, Facebook, Airbnb, Uber are owners of space-based assets that others who wish to produce, sell, or buy cannot do without. They are multi-trillion- dollar companies in equity value and generate huge revenues from the financialization of their spaced-based assets.

    Likewise, optimising skills and knowledge development is an excellent part of productivity. Global skill shortage is fueling an unprecedented wave of talent migration. The Philippines is a leading supplier of seafarers, caregivers, and domestic workers in the world. The culinary skills of the Chinese help to differentiate Chinese restaurants worldwide. We can debate whether diners are paying a premium for the skills or for the products.

    The need for healthcare workers in developed countries is an opportunity to train and export the skills of Nigerian youths to the rest of the world, so also ICT skills .Investors worldwide highly value skills, brands, trademarks, recipes, talents, innovations, and knowledge.

    There is a need for rethinking productivity in Nigeria. The presidential candidates should not only understand the problems of Nigeria and how to solve them, but they should have a sharp vision of the destination they are taking Nigeria to. According to Seneca the Younger, ‘If a man knows not to which port he sails no wind is favourable’. The February 1887 Magazine of American History teaches that ‘You cannot make much of a wind, but you can choose a wind, trim your sails to it, and attain the haven you select by its push and inspiration”.

    Presidential candidates need to tell us more about how they plan to incentivise innovation to unlock growth in both income and wealth. Innovation is a crucial enabler of productivity. Innovation and productivity drive living standards. The capacity to generate innovations is the defining factor of productivity, not necessarily the goods you produce.

  • 2023: Manifestos that will not manifest – By Dakuku Peterside

    2023: Manifestos that will not manifest – By Dakuku Peterside

    We are in another election season. Political parties, jobbers, and candidates deploy everything to convince innocent voters that they mean well and have a clear agenda to transform society. Most people – con artists, comics, and patriotic citizens – attempt to present what they intend to do when elected to office. In their various interactions with the public and the media, they make statements of promises to the electorate to win their votes. These statements give an indication as to what matters to the candidates and their vision of the future of society.

    No tool encapsulates the ideals and priorities of the candidates and their parties like the manifesto. Ideally , a manifesto  is a compilation of the broad vision, development philosophy, ideological leaning and sector-specific policy options that a political party  intends to pursue once elected.

    Parties have manifestos  and it is pretty much fixed, however updated regularly. Candidates of parties have  an agenda or programme , which should align with the manifesto of the sponsoring party . In our clime, a candidate’s programme is often referred to as a manifesto and that is the context in which it is situated in this column. A manifesto is one of the ways of evaluating whether candidates understand the issues confronting the people and have good plans to solve them. It is also a tool to hold parties and candidates accountable for promises made during elections.

    The reality in Nigerian political culture deviates, albeit in a slightly different way, from the denotative nuances of a manifesto. In Nigeria, a manifesto is more of a tradition, a political culture and not an essential requirement in a political contest. Whether citizens take it seriously or not is another matter. The belief in Nigeria, following historical precedence, is that manifestos are almost acts of a confidence trick – soundbites and promises that are intended to trick but never kept. Nevertheless, the expectation is that all political parties and presidential candidates will present their manifestoes or agenda  to the public.

    Two of the four presidential frontrunners have released what is somewhat of a manifesto. Atiku Abubakar of the PDP released an abridged version of his manifesto captioned “new covenant” or “my covenant with Nigerians”. Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC issued “Hope Renewed”. One common thing to both manifestos is that they need more detail on how they intend to accomplish what they have outlined. Labour Party’s Peter Obi and NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso are yet to release any manifesto officially. Peter Obi had argued that getting wordsmiths and consultants to write and package a manifesto is not enough; candidates should be able to speak to Nigerians about what they plan to do, how they will do it and where the funds will come from to fulfil their promises.

    The campaign managers and spin doctors of the two main parties, APC and PDP, are already jostling to place their manifestoes at the centre of media and public attention whilst attacking the essence and content of each other’s manifesto. Dele Momodu, journalist, and media manager of the Atiku Presidential campaign launched the first attack by describing Tinubu’s manifesto as bad recycling of late MKO Abiola’s 1993 manifesto calling it “APC manifesto of lies”. As expected, he got an immediate reply from Festus Keyamo, who described the Atiku-Okowa manifesto as merely a copy of President Buhari’s projects. At least Nigerians who have consumed enough bad news now have some comic relief.

    We expect these attacks, which are part of the election campaign, justling. However, these soundbite attacks are not enough to feed the political appetites of the electorate. I expect a thorough and  critical analysis of the manifestoes of each party by their opponents with the view to interrogate it and question the relevance of its content to our common aspiration. They should examine the practicality and workability of ideas and policies contained therein and task each party’s campaign managers to explain to the public some of the grey areas identified. I also expect civil society organizations , media organisations and public commentators to delve into these manifestoes and dissect them to educate the public on the content and the merits and demerits of ideas, policies, and assumptions contained in these manifestoes. The aim is to enlighten the citizens because only an enlightened citizenry will vote for candidates that align with the developmental needs and aspirations of the people.

    The APC presidential manifesto prioritises national security, economy, agriculture, power, oil and gas, transportation, social services and education. The major highlight of the manifesto is broadly the ten promises geared to foster a new society based on shared prosperity, tolerance, compassion, and the unwavering commitment to treating each citizen with equal respect and due regard. Some of the promises include building a Nigeria, especially for our youth, where good jobs with decent wages create a better life, manufacturing;creating, and inventing more of the goods and services we require, exporting more and importing less, continuing to assist farmers, modernising and expanding public infrastructure, making primary healthcare, education, and housing accessible and affordable for all, providing electricity, and creating a security architecture to combat crime and terrorism.

    On the other hand, the PDP presidential manifesto emphasises a 5-point development agenda that focuses on providing quality education, restructuring Nigeria, building a dynamic economy for prosperity, ensuring the safety and security of life and property, and restoring unity in diversity. Looking at the overall fiscal and general environment, it is doubtful that these manifestos  or development agenda are realistic and implementable.

    They are manifestos  that will not manifest. Promises that throughout our democratic history have been made but never achieved. These promises sound so familiar to the electorate because of the recurring themes of providing electricity, security, a good economy, and infrastructure, yet we have not achieved these things, and they are still the bane of our society. Do candidates plan to rely on the manifesto to run the government? Very often, No. It is time we look beyond manifesto promises to ask candidates how they intend to make these promises a reality. How will it be funded or achieved? What is the implementation strategy?

    Once elections are over, the parties and the candidate jettison the manifesto and its promises. What if we treat voting as a transaction between the voter and the elected officials, as a social contract? Should we not hold elected officials accountable if they deviate from the promises, they made in their manifestoes upon which the voters cast votes? Can citizens take legal action against parties and candidates for not implementing the provisions of their manifesto? If a prospective voter has voted based on a promise, should the voter not have the legitimate expectation that the government voted to power perform based on the contract? Therefore, citizens need to take note and keep track of party manifestoes and candidates’ promises during election campaigns to hold them accountable. Besides, citizens must be able to remove nonperforming leaders before another election cycle. Though it runs a parliamentary system, the UK changed Prime Minister in 44 days because she could not deliver on the manifesto.

    There is no indication that the content of a party’s manifesto substantially influences how citizens vote. 90% of eligible voters, a good chunk being illiterate by default, in Nigeria do not bother about a manifesto. Even candidates need to learn the content of their manifesto document. It is time we paid attention to party and candidates’ manifestos, interrogate them, keep track, and hold elected officials accountable. We need citizen mechanisms or actions to hold candidates responsible for their manifesto promises before periodic elections. That way, we shall deepen our democracy.

    In countries such as Bhutan and Mexico, political parties are required to submit a copy of their election manifesto to the Electoral Commission before General elections. Manifestos are issued to the public only with the approval of the Electoral Commission. This has a way of making the government perform its manifesto promises. A mechanism to track and hold candidates accountable would ensure that promises merely to induce voters are not made and that promises are sincere and well-conceived.

    Our democratic evolution requires that we implement systems to hold elected officials accountable for their promises to the voters . A promise is a promise and should not be made if there is no intention of keeping them. That is a fraud! Nigerian voters have been duped for so long. And we intend to bring an end to this in the 2023 general elections.

    Therefore, I implore all stakeholders in the Nigerian project to use every opportunity available to interrogate all electoral promises inside and outside the manifestoes. We need to understand the vision a political party’s candidate is selling to the voters and create means of holding them to their words. I also implore the media to shun sleaze and banalities and focus on proper voters’ enlightenment based on the promises of candidates as contained in their manifestoes and other political statements.

    In this day of traditional and social media prevalence, such voter education is not a herculean task. All it requires is the commitment of the information producers to enrich their content with quality political information to educate the voters and give them a chance to make informed decisions based on their convictions. Although we have many illiterate voters, this political information must reach them through media like the radio and other opinion leaders’ transmission processes that will give them access to knowledge. Democracy involves democratising knowledge and access, and we must include Nigerian voters in this crucial process.

  • Lessons from the Liz Truss Event – By Dakuku Peterside

    Lessons from the Liz Truss Event – By Dakuku Peterside

    “All politics is local” is a popular refrain. However, we cannot deny the interconnected nature of politics. The game of politics is governed by some common unwritten rules which reign supreme in most societies, no matter the form of democracy they practice. Like a mathematical equation, there are a few constants in politics – the political sovereignty of the people, which, whenever subverted there will always be consequences; the interest of the elite ; incompetence in public life has a price; the economy and welfare of the people are crucial to stability. All these factors played critical roles in the fall of the shortest prime ministership of one of the world’s most mature democracies. In the downfall of Liz Truss, are there any lessons for a developing democracy such as Nigeria that practices a presidential system of government as distinct from a parliamentary system with its unique nature and peculiar party processes? Here are five lessons and how each of them affects Nigerian political leaders.

    First, confidence in the government is a no-brainer. Through a popular franchise, the people repose great confidence in their leaders to govern them using the state’s commonwealth. This confidence has a quotient level that is acceptable in all democracies – and immediately it goes below a particular psychological level of acceptance by the people – it elicits a total call for either an immediate change of government using democratic means available or voting out of the government in the next election.
    Liz Truss lost the confidence of the people. This is evident in her prime ministership having the worst opinion poll rating of any recent UK prime minister. Also, she lost the confidence of her colleagues in the cabinet, parliament, and party to the extent that she had no option but to resign from office. Her resignation is an indication of the power of the people in a democracy. The people give and take power anytime they lose confidence in their government. In Liz Truss’s case,
    parliamentary system allows for fast response unlike the presidential where leadership change is more tedious.

    In the Nigerian context, loss of confidence as a political paradigm may not have quick implications as it did in the UK due to our system of government, but we may still need to consider it thoroughly. Although the typical Nigerian leader cares less about winning and keeping citizens’ confidence beyond election seasons, such insensitivity is costly in most cases. For instance, the insensitivity of Goodluck Jonathan’s administration to the mass abduction of Chibok girls contributed to the loss of confidence of the people in that government which eventually led to its downfall. Therefore, losing faith and trust in their government inevitably leads to a loss of political power.

    Second, worldwide, the litmus test for a government’s popularity and acceptance by the people is the state of the economy. The state of the economy affects voters’ choices and citizens reactions to leaders. Whenever economic decisions go badly, politics react. The cost-of- living crises in the UK occasioned by rising Inflation and uncontrollable rising energy costs put the Brits on edge, and they want a government that will tackle these problems immediately. Unfortunately, Liz Truss’s economic policies could not inspire the confidence of the people and the market that she and her cabinet were in the right direction to solving the problem.

    It is significant to note that the pressure came on her even when she had not implemented the policy in the first instance. The general perception is that the tax cut for the rich, social welfare cut, interest rates increase, and other typical conservative economic policies will not work and should not even be tested. The collapse of Liz Truss’s economic policies at birth signalled the lame-duck nature of her government. The desperate reaction of the market saw the pound tumble to its lowest level against the USD in over four decades and the near collapse of the London stock market. This spook reaction by the market indicates a lack of confidence in the government and it is interesting that it directly correlates with the collapse of the government, pointing to a more significant link between the market and politics in recent times.

    Similarly, though there is low level of economic enlightenment in Nigeria but economic hardship prevalent today has heightened citizens’ political awareness and may affect the choice of Nigerian
    voters in 2023. Unemployment, high-interest rate, Inflation – If not checked, Nigerians will react soon. 10% Inflation was what sent Truss packing, whereas we are dealing with 20%. The pervading sense of hopelessness and economic quagmire has created an anti-establishment and anti- orthodoxy movement in the political space .

    Third, there is a limit to citizens’ tolerance of leaders’ excuses and incompetence. The Truss team were deemed incompetent. And when they made bad decisions, people did not trust them to continue handling the country’s governance. It is obvious that she did not cause the problems she inherited, and many externalities are shaping the rise of economic issues in the UK chief among them are post covid 19 economic downturn, the Russian/Ukraine conflict in Europe, and the high cost of energy that elicited high Inflation both in the UK and all over the world.

    However, although aware of these external influences, UK citizens refuse to accept any excuse from Liz Truss for not handling the crisis well. Any future Conservative Prime Ministers will have their job cut out to stem the tide of economic woes and win the people’s confidence. The UK people are okay with changing prime ministers, like tenancy of Airbnb, until they get a Prime Minister that is fit for purpose.
    Conversely, Nigerians’ tolerance level to excuses is higher than that of the Brits. However, it has limits too, and the general election in 2023 is an opportunity to test that limit. Most Nigerians are tired of excuses and blame from one quarter to another, in tackling insecurity, mismanagement, Inflation, corruption among other issues . It is disheartening to note that floods happened in several places in Nigeria, and we lost 600 persons, 1.5m persons were displaced, and 2.5m people need humanitarian assistance. There has yet to be a definitive action from the government. But Joe Biden, in the case of Hurricane Ian, Florida, visited the location with the wife , reassured Americans , mobilized the military for emergency rescue services , announced federal aid, literarily relocated the government seat to Florida, and declared a state of emergency. Barometer of compassion which government shows in Nigeria is low.

    Fourth, the winner takes all mentality in politics is counterproductive. Liz Truss appointed her cabinet from her close allies and inner circle, and this phenomenon limited the pool of competent persons she could choose. In governance, inclusiveness is sine quo non especially as a tool to manage diversity . The quality of governance is a function of the quality of people in government. There is a need to always go for competence, even if the competent person is not a close associate or party member. This cost Liz Truss her premiership.

    In Nigeria, we have institutionalised mediocrity for reasons of party loyalty and other sentiments . PDP (1999-2015) and APC (2015- date) chose mostly party members, some with no capacity to envision or execute credible policies. A good mix of party men, competent persons from other parties and nonaligned capable persons is needed to stir Nigeria out of the doldrums. After the 2023 general elections, Nigerians expect the leaders to assemble the best hands to manage the economy. People want results that will impact their lives positively, and only an assemblage of the most competent hands can deliver results.

    Fifth, Liz Truss’s loss of power demonstrates the importance people place on leaders articulating clear, realistic, and workable policies that inspires confidence and belief in the government’s capacity to deliver. Any bogus policies that will not solve the myriad of issues faced by the people are quickly noticed, analysed, and criticised by the media, the people, the market, and other stakeholders. In Liz Truss’s case, the system did not even allow her to implement her policies because the system did not have faith in her policies.

    In Nigeria today, we have a bourgeoning intelligent populace and a virile media that critically analyse policies and government projects. Social media have democratised political debates and consciousness, especially among the youth, with a concomitant increase in political participation not seen in a generation. Therefore, leaders, should come up with policies that are sustainable and possibly do a dry run of scenarios before activating such policies . Truss got it wrong and paid for it .
    The era of religious, ethnic, and primordial sentiments influencing voting is fast fading . Just as in Liz Truss Britain, let the competition of ideas in the common public sphere be the bases of voting choice. Let us have the best ideas and people who put them out in the 2023 elections.

    Overall , Nigeria politicians and leaders owe Nigerians clarity of vision and policy , probity and accountability if they do not want to suffer Liz Truss’s fate. They should articulate sustainable and fit-for-purpose policies to develop Nigeria without overpromising whilst bearing in mind the economic realities and the state of national finance when making promises. They should clearly understand our local and national problems and convince the voters how they will solve them. This is the time for Issue-based politics and not trash. Nigerians, like the Brits, are prepared to give the fate of Liz Truss to any leader or politician that wants to sell us “Trussonomics” in 2023.

  • Flood, passivity, and a ruined future – By Dakuku Peterside

    Flood, passivity, and a ruined future – By Dakuku Peterside

    This year, 2022, the floods seem to have united different parts of the globe. The World Bank report estimates that 1.18 billion people or 23% of the world population, face significant flood risks.

    The floods have hit 27 of Nigeria’s 36 states and impacted around 1.4 million people, according to the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management. It has been reported that more than 500 people have been killed and 90,000 homes submerged, apart from supply chain disruptions.

    In the North Central in particular, Koton-karfe , Kogi State and surrounding communities have been seriously impacted, while the Orashi area of Rivers State has not been spared. Apart from unusual rains, the recent release of water from the Lagdo Dam in neighbouring Cameroon has also been blamed for the devastating floods.

    Beyond these statistics is the individual human tragedy of colossal proportions that beats the imagination. People have lost their livelihoods. The elderly and sick are displaced, food and necessities are scarce, and life has become drudgery and misery. All these are on top of the stifling economic crisis that every Nigerian contends with.

    It is convenient for political leaders and those charged with the responsibility of planning and acting on our behalf to make excuses that flood and flooding are common global threats. It’s even easier to blame climate change. Climate change and its impacts are more of a worldwide conversation than a local one. And we hope the 27th UN Conference of Parties (COP 27) holding in Egypt this November will make a meaningful impact on the conversation, although tremendous pessimism exists, given the poor results of previous conferences.

    The impact of the flooding in Nigeria is exacerbated by a lack of respect for science and leadership problems. Our lack of respect for science and preference for superstition is at the root of the flood disaster we have at hand. Since we do not respect science, therefore we seem not to have any place for strategic planning based on scientific evidence. The flooding problem is symbolic of a country whose leadership at all levels does not value planning, working with data and proactiveness.

    All the agencies in the environment sector, both local and international, had predicted the current flood ravaging our country on the basis of scientific evidence, but nobody showed authentic leadership in providing solutions that could forestall the disaster we have now harvested. Our leaders did not even seem to make any effort to benefit from past experiences and the availability of mitigation expertise. These floods did not start this year, and Nigeria had been affected in 2010 and 2012.

    We have had enough time to learn lessons from years of recurring flood disasters, but it is evident that we learnt none from this most recent development. What lessons must we take from this presistent problem of flooding, and how can we prevent or mitigate the impact of flooding in Nigeria?

    First, we must take the science of environment and climatic changes serious. It is noteworthy that in the recent instances of flooding disasters, it is not the lack of data and scientific knowledge that has been the problem, but the lack of effective and efficient use of data analysis to plan and put measures in place to either prevent flooding or reduce its impact. Our leaders act as if all environmental emergencies are Acts of God and, therefore, inevitable. This is baseless ignorance.

    Too much rain alone or overflowing rivers do not create much havoc when structural and procedural anti-flooding arrangements are in place. In countries where they take scientific evidence relating to flooding seriously, there are early warning signs to evacuate people and valuables, and people activate measures to protect their homes and valuables. The government provides channels for the easy flow of water to designated areas and sets other scientific and environmental standards that reduce the impact of flooding.

    There should be enlightenment campaigns for Nigerians and their leaders to counter superstitious beliefs and attitudes towards flooding and elevate the supremacy of scientific facts in this regard. This knowledge will help leaders plan better for and respond to flooding in more practical ways than the current blame-shifting or complete nonchalant attitude we see among them today.

    Second, the first line of defence against flooding is in arming Nigerians living in flood-prone areas with adequate science-based information on the risks involved in their environments, how to mitigate these and when to seek safety elsewhere. The institutions saddled with this responsibility must be alive to it and be held accountable when they fail in utilising scientific data to inform the people about their risk levels and create robust early warning systems.

    Yet, I must note that in the case of the Lokoja flooding, some institutions actually provided scientific information and early warning signals about the impending floods, but nothing much was done about this by the leadership or even those who ought to constitute the first line of defence against flood – the people themselves. Nigerians should demand a fit-for-purpose crisis management regime against natural disasters. The National Emergency Management Agency must be well funded and properly managed to react to disasters and work in synergy with local people to plan and manage crises such as flooding.

    Third, being reactive to issues for which we have prior information is symptomatic of the lack of proactiveness and accountability. Worse still, the leadership needed to ameliorate the impact of flooding cuts across all strata of government. The Federal Government should protect the lives and property of people in affected areas by declaring a state of emergency and designating human and material resources to reduce the impacts of flooding.

    The Federal Government can use its security apparatus to support and enforce evacuations, maintain dredging and waste management, and invest in flood mitigation efforts and infrastructure. In flood-prone areas, it should work on enhancing food resilience and security. In times of disaster, food and medicine are essential to limit the casualties of the disaster.

    State governments must desist from allocating land for building in designated flood plains and flood-prone areas, thereby encouraging the construction of structures that block the routes of natural flowing water. Importantly, they need to engage in building sturdy drainage system to control flooding. States must develop physical flood prevention and mitigation infrastructure and work collaboratively with the Federal Government to manage critical water infrastructure such as dams, waterways, and water-based resources.

    The national emergency response regime must be prioritised and adequately funded to help prevent disasters (particularly flooding) rather than being merely reactive to catastrophes. National and sub-national legislature need to create robust and adequate legal frameworks for dealing with flooding emergencies to ease the prevention and management of such natural or artificial disasters.

    Fourth, the world is facing a climate change crisis. It is not time to question the science behind it, but time to embrace and champion it in Africa. Globally, engagement with climate change is a burning issue. Political leaders in both developed and developing countries are obsessing with the matter and adopting definite science-based measures to counter it. However, Nigerian political leaders don’t seem interested. Neither the Federal Government nor any of the 36 state governments seems to take definitive action to implement climate change policies and frameworks .The implication is that we are not placing ourselves in position to be part of all international efforts to understand and deal with climate change. Meanwhile, there is a clear opportunity for Nigerian leaders to lead the Global South in demanding accountability from the global community regarding their climate commitments, especially the Global North.

    The proverbial saying must apply here, “the dog should not eat faeces and the goat’s teeth decay”. Climate change results from more activities in developed countries than in developing countries. China and USA have the highest carbon footprint in the world, representing the two biggest industrialised nations. China is the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide gas, with 10,668 million metric tons emitted in 2020, followed by the US, with 4,713 million metric tons of total carbon dioxide emissions by 2020. Nigeria’s contribution to carbon dioxide emission is literarily and comparatively insignificant. The biggest carbon emitters must compensate those affected in lands with less emission but face devastating climate change-induced natural disasters.

    All these factors mentioned above will help improve situations of natural disasters such as flooding. However, effective and efficient leadership is at the core. Until our leaders eschew superstition, embrace scientific facts about natural disasters and strategically plan to prevent or reduce their impacts, we will remain at the mercy of natural elements.

    Lokoja just showed us the tip of the iceberg on the possibilities and devastation of natural disasters. Predictably, this would not be the last of the flooding incidents. Now is the time to evolve or go extinct.

  • #NigeriaDecides2023: Campaign promises and the issue of trust – By Dakuku Peterside

    #NigeriaDecides2023: Campaign promises and the issue of trust – By Dakuku Peterside

    Most societies do not trust their politicians, so it is not an anomaly peculiar to Nigeria. Whether it is an advanced democracy or a developing country does not make any difference. For instance, 63% of British people believed their politicians were mainly interested in themselves alone, according to the IPPR think tank poll conducted in 2021. Also, in another survey, 60% of Australians rank the politicians very low on the issues of honesty and integrity. Similarly, in the US, a 2021 Gallup poll showed that 60% of Americans do not have confidence in their politicians. A 2013 study by the World Economic Forum (WEF) pointed out that the people’s trust in politicians in India hit an all-time low that year.

    However, the case of Nigerians and trust in their politicians seems to decline with every cycle of elections since 1999. An extreme trust deficit hovers over Nigerian politicians, and the public hardly believes in the campaign promises or even the commitment made by politicians. Much of the trust deficit links to the fact that there is no mechanism of political accountability in the country. Even when one is in place, politicians and even institutions that are supposed to enforce this usually undermine it.

    The 2023 elections present a unique situation for the average Nigerian voter to confront the issue of trust deficit among the political class. Nigerians have run out of patience in trusting their politicians and those who hold public office on their behalf. There are five significant reasons why the average Nigerian citizen and voter cannot trust politicians.

    First, politicians have failed to keep to their many promises over time . A critical look at the campaign promises since the 1979 elections reveals that the themes and promises are the same: that of bringing about food sufficiency, constant electricity, pipe-borne water, the building of roads, coupled with the provision of quality education and healthcare . From the post-1999 political period till date, we can add to this list issues of security, employment creation through industralisation, fighting corruption, and fixing the economy, and the cocktail of promises would have been complete. I bet you that these will be the same issues and promises in the 2023 elections.

    Politicians have never kept any of these promises properly, none of which has been truly addressed and eliminated from the list of developmental challenges. The trend is as if, immediately after elections, politicians forget or even deny their promises. Many of our basic infrastructure are non-existent or in total disrepair. Youth unemployment is rife, despite the many promises of creating jobs and revamping social services, which are either non-functional or suboptimal. Issues of restructuring have featured in most election campaigns since the 1999 general elections, but despite all the promises by successive candidates, we are still at the same point talking about the same issues since then.

    Second, the inconsistency of politicians is legendary and often borders on creative lies and propaganda. Nigerian politicians change parties like the asoebi changes of bridal clothes during traditional wedding ceremonies. The politics of supremacy of personal interests has killed any serious ideological underpinnings of any of the political parties.

    Politicians have turned parties into vehicles to struggle for power without any enduring attachment to ideals, philosophies, and ideologies. On policy issues, one hardly ever knows where politicians and office holders stand. Besides, when issues of national importance arise, politicians flip-flop from one opinion or stance to another in alignment with their personal interests. For instance, many Northern politicians, especially PDP presidential candidate Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, supported the zoning issue in 2011 but opposed it in the 2019 and 2022 primaries because it favours them and the North.

    Third, many campaign promises have no precise details on how to accomplish them. Politicians create soundbites and colourful proclamations on massive projects they promise to build to improve the lives and material conditions of citizens. However, the politicians do not provide information on the feasibility or viability of these projects. They do not provide details on how and where they will get the funds for the project, who will oversee the project, the cost- benefit analysis, and who will benefit from it. What are the opportunity costs of the project, and how is the project linked to other projects to provide a system of infrastructure that supports economic sustainability and growth?

    Fourth, the average politician is a chameleon who change his/her persona during and after elections. The best time to easily access politicians is when they are canvassing for votes. They show an openness that surprises their worst critics and communicate compassionately and purposefully during election campaigns. However, immediately after the elections, these politicians become inaccessible and unapproachable, whether they win or not. It even becomes worse when they win an elective position because they become far removed from the people, and overzealous security officers and their entourages guard them heavily. Engagement with the people becomes rare once in office. They are far removed from the people they govern and only communicate with them formally through the traditional and social media. Little wonder that there is a disconnect and lack of trust between politicians and the people.

    Finally, there is opaqueness in the conducts of individual politicians, the party and government affairs. This opaqueness breeds disunity and hatred even within the party. The fluidity of the conflict of interest between powerful interest groups and government officials leads to scandals, the reign of innuendos and rumours that bedevil trust and faith in the political system and politicians. This partly accounts for why the two major parties in Nigeria are facing deep internal crisis and tensions today.

    The difference between the Nigerian situation and politicians of other climes is that a more enlightened civil society can hold politicians accountable for their campaign promises by keeping an inventory of these promises and asking questions of politicians during campaigns and even after elections; how much will the proposed projects cost? Where the funds will come from? What are their real impacts and how will they contribute to improving the quality of living of the people? Only by interrogating and engaging the campaign promises of politicians will we start the process of holding them accountable.

    Nigerians must demand a rejigging of the governance structure that must embrace results – performance benchmarks, targets, timelines, achievable goals, and milestones. A result-oriented governance approach emphasises process and outcomes, whilst deemphasising ordinary rhetoric and promises not backed with actions.

    For the political class, political communication and marketing must be less of fact spinning and framing political messages to confuse or deceive the people. The political language should become less vague and empty. All politicians must strive to be honourable, knowledgeable, and trustworthy. Politicians always on the receiving end of the trust deficit must learn the benefit of facts, figures, statistics, historical patterns, trends, and time limits. These will assist them in addressing the trust deficit.

    All politicians in Nigeria must strive to let the 2023 elections give us something new to place our hopes and aspirations in. They must be open to
    being held accountable for their promises. Let the candidates speak for themselves on all key policy issues and not through some spokespersons they will later  deny as being unauthorised to make commitments and decisions on their behalf. This is the time to ask candidates for the finer details of vague campaign promises and to ensure that candidates keep their promises and commitments, and that none should or can take Nigerians for granted again.

    We hope the INEC is ready to painstakingly officiate a free and fair election in the 2023 general election according to the provisions of the amended Electoral Act. The more the polls are credible, the more legitimate and trustworthy that politicians will look and become.
    Voters must be ready to track inventories of campaign promises to hold politicians accountable for their promises. They should act decisively when they know politicians are taking them on rides and abandoning their
    promises. The people must create platforms to continuously engage political office holders, and were anyone is not acting in the overall interest of the people, they could initiate the process of recalling such a person from the
    Assembly, if s/he is a legislator, petition higher office holders about such a politician, embark on media campaigns against the politician, and ultimately, vote out the politician in the next election cycle. This will serve as deterrence for politicians from making promises they have no intention or plan of keeping.

    Although Nigeria is not unique in lacking trust for politicians, the people use even stronger languages than in most climes to describe these politicians, who are all lumped within the category of dubious thieves and liars. There is a pervading sense of hopelessness when politicians fail to keep their campaign promises and neglect the people with utmost impunity. The general elections of 2023 are a make or mar election in a generation.

    Preliminary findings thus far are indicating meaningful youth engagement during the early stages of the campaign; therefore, this is a clarion call and a call of duty to all influential Nigerians to check the campaign promises against the odds and realities of affordability, sustainability, and practical value, especially when the opportunity costs are calculated. Let’s sincerely hope that the 2023 general elections will herald a new dawn in electioneering campaigns dominated by issues-based debates, while campaign promises are interrogated and situatied within the current economic situations and realities, locally and internationally, in the hope that the best candidates win the elections to liberate Nigerians.