TheNewsGuru

Tag: Dakuku Peterside

  • Exodus of the next generation; time to be concerned – By Dakuku Peterside

    Exodus of the next generation; time to be concerned – By Dakuku Peterside

    Forced migration and its concomitant enslavement of the African was a blight on the world’s collective conscience between the 1500s and 1800s. The repercussions still reverberate through time to the present . Africans are calling for payment of reparations to their motherland by the European powers to date.

    It is paradoxical that the ships of the slave masters were filled with unwilling and forced migrants, brutally repressed and tortured to keep them on board , yet some would rather drown than move away from their motherland and a place they consider as home.
    A friend once told me that if US or UK berths a ship on the shores of Nigeria today and asks young people if they want to leave Nigeria and migrate to their countries on the said ship, the number of people who will voluntarily go on board the ship will sink it. The struggles, fights, and shovelling that will be seen will make “Wrestlemania” look like a child’s play. As sad as this assumption is, statistics back its fundamental realities.

    A recent PEW research survey reveals that about 45% of Nigeria’s adult population plans to relocate to another country within five years. Of the 12 countries surveyed from Africa, the Middle East, Europe and North America, Nigerians ranked highest among people who desperately want to relocate to some other countries . In another study in 2021, it was revealed that seven in every 10 Nigerians planned to relocate if the opportunity presents itself.

    A new report by the UK government showed that the 13,609 Nigerian healthcare workers granted working visas within the last one year (2021) are second only to the 42,966 from India. According to the UK immigration report released last Thursday, Nigeria is second only to Indians in the number of visas granted for the ‘Skilled Worker – Health & Care’ category with 14 % (13,609) of the total. Recent official data from Canadian immigration sources indicate that 12,595 Nigerians relocated to Canada alone in 2019 alone . Applications for permanent residency by Nigerians in Canada in 2015 were 4,000. By 2019, the number had climbed to 15,595, an increase of over 214.9%.

    The recent wave of Nigerians relocating out of the country represents the largest movement of people out of the country since the end of the civil war, over fifty years ago. What is significant is the profile of those who are relocating. They are primarily skilled youth, including doctors, nurses, IT engineers, university lecturers and technicians. They also include young people who completed their studies abroad and opted to stay back because our country has nothing to offer them regarding jobs, opportunities, or even basic safety. Some of them have been educated in elite universities at home and abroad. This demographic is more debilitating for our national development prospects.

    The primary strategic concern of our increasing demographic haemorrhage is the emigration of skilled Nigerian youth. The people on whom our future depends are leaving. Our best energies and brains are being drained. Our IT wiz kids, medical scientists, economists, biotechnologists, and academics , etc. are flooding flights headed out to better climes. Many of them have no plans of returning home in any hurry. A certain disturbing pessimism that this place will not get better any time soon pervades the attitude of many of these fleeing youth. They are leaving because the place we call home has degenerated into a hell hole of calamities,devoid of opportunities or hope.

    Five major factors seem to be fuelling this voluntary migration from Nigeria, which has never occurred post -World War 11. These factors include the desire for better career opportunities, heightened insecurity in the country, the desire to provide a better future for one’s children, the need for further education, and poor governance in the country. To underscore these points, a cursory look at Nigeria’s economic statistics paints an ugly picture.

    First, there are limited employment opportunities as the country’s unemployment rate rose five-fold (from 6.4% to 33.3%) between 2010 and 2020. Unemployment creates or increases the chances of poverty, and a rise in unemployment, as seen with Nigeria’s unemployment figure, means more people are being pushed under the poverty line. In recent months, unemployment and poverty primarily affects the youth, and crippling inflation has exacerbated the problem. Inflation has moved from about 7% a decade ago to over 20.52% lately( August 2022), forcing more people into poverty.

    The security challenge is worsening by the day with constant escalations of societal tension by the activities of kidnappers, bandits, secessionists, terrorists, and other forms of criminality. The insecurity level has become a significant concern, with the death toll in nine months reaching 8,281 and 3,490 persons kidnapped in only eight months in 2021. ASUU has been on strike for almost nine months now with no clear sense of direction. Therefore university students remain at home. The only option to escape these peculiar Nigerian problems is to “japa”( a Yoruba slang for escape).

    If Nigeria’s socio-political and economic climate remains averse and strangulating, young people, even middle-career parents, will abandon Nigeria and relocate at the slightest opportunity. This trend is not likely to end soon. Tragically, the areas worst hit by the current wave of migrations are the most strategic for our nation. We may quickly lose our competitive and comparative advantages in IT, Engineering, Medicine, and other highly skilled jobs due to their emigrating in droves. In years to come, the opportunity cost of this migration may be too high to contemplate.

    The irony in some cases is that most of these people travelling received their training and education in public institutions funded by the Nigerian government, and the developed countries will simply reap the rewards that ought to accrue to Nigeria (a reversed aid from Nigeria to developed countries). Those from families that can afford to cover the costs of studying (expended huge sums foreign exchange to educate) or working abroad have no plans of ever returning to Nigeria soon. The demand pull for skilled migration is high. With an aging populations in most developed countries, a dearth of professionals and highly skilled workers in STEM (science, technology, engineering and maths) areas, and the advantages of a diverse workforce, the developing countries are in demand of professionals with the suitable skills base and English language proficiency.

    The Nigerian government appears unperturbed by the outbound migration of its professionals and young people. The number of passports issued by the Nigeria Immigration Service rose by 38% between 2020 and 2021. This increased from 767,164 to 1,059,607 passports issued in 2020 and 2021, respectively. This is an indication that more people are planning to move out of the country . The government, in terms of policies and actions, is not putting anything on the ground to stem this tide. It seems that the government has an alternative view of this mass migration.

    The government seems to be towing the view that as a large country with a population of over 200 million people, it is a good thing to export its skilled labour. About 50,000 people leaving a country of 200m people annually should not be a red flag. Those left behind are more than the few who will make it out. However , it is this migrating group that ought to bother the government more.

    Some argue that the next generation’s exodus will help increase diaspora remittances , which lately has been the booster to the national dollar reserve. Diaspora remittances reported by the CBN currently hover between $25bn and $30bn annually and still rising. The country can earn close to $100bn annually if it harnesses the remitting potentials of its various diasporas. The labour minister, Chris Ngige, affirmed this view when he told journalists last year that the country was exporting its best minds because it had a surplus of talents and, in any case, “when they go abroad, they earn money and send it back home here.”

    Some Nigerians do not see anything wrong with this mass movement of skilled professionals, in peacetime to abroad. They argue that It’s the same way a generation of Nigerians once left the villages in droves for cities and urban centres across the country. Education, lack of employment opportunities and shrinking socio-economic conditions will ensure forced migration anyway.

    India, a country facing a similar situation, has created a robust policy and institutional framework to reverse this trend which portends danger for the country’s future socio-economic development. Among the steps taken includes but are not limited to creating employment, attracting international companies to site industries in India, and creating awareness of the inevitable growth of India as a global economic powerhouse soon. The hope of a better Nigeria is a recipe for keeping young professionals from migrating, and this underscores the importance of the 2023 general election. The new breed of leaders that will emerge must inspire hope in the future of Nigeria.

    The long term solution to the Japa syndrome is multi prong. It requires a fundamental renewal of the educational system at the tertiary level. It needs a shift of emphasis from certificate education to entrepreneurship education. We need at least eight years of uninterrupted inflow of foreign direct investment to create an average of 3 million to 5million jobs per annum. Above all, it requires an onslaught on insecurity to enable internal migration of the factors of production especially labour and capital from one section of the country to others. Deliberate steps must be taken to improve quality of social services in the short and medium term .

    Taken together, these measures will help reverse long term mass migration from the country by creating a conducive environment for citizens to pursue and realize their potentials. They will also enable a year on year gradual reversal through rights of return and homeward movements.

  • The burgeoning kidnapping industry – By Dakuku Peterside

    The burgeoning kidnapping industry – By Dakuku Peterside

    Nigeria is a land of mysteries with too many unexplained and unexplainable phenomena. It is inexplicable that it has not secured a place in the Guinness book of records on account of socio-economic mysteries. Mysterious social occurrences defy logic and common sense and happen in everyday national life. One of the mysteries of today’s Nigeria is the flourishing kidnap-for-ransom enterprise which has assumed an industrial dimension and the status of a sub-sector of the economy. Nigeria, according to Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project(ACLEDP), by 2021 is miles ahead of Mexico and Colombia in incidences of kidnapping and mass abduction.  Nigeria , unlike Libya and Syria does not have pre-existing combat experiences with attendant collapse of internal security, yet our record is not enviable.

    It has three broad categories – retail kidnapping, medium- scale kidnapping, and terrorist abduction. Friends and family drive retail kidnappings for an immediate financial reward, such as a wife arranging for the kidnap of the husband, friends arranging for the kidnap of their friends and housemaids planning for the kidnap of their master’s children. Medium-scale kidnapping involves attacking buses on the road and taking all the passengers, attacking villages, and taking helpless victims hostage, and attacking communities and terrorising and occupying them. This class of kidnap-for-ransom has made popular the lexicon, bandits, a lose term for criminals.

    Another category, terrorist abduction is a sophisticated organised crime and large-scale business involving multiple actors often targeting high value individuals, and designed to draw the government’s attention. The 2014 mass abduction of 276 school girls in Chibok, North East of the country woke up the nation to this new reality. Another is the Abuja- Kaduna train attack(AK-9), for which most victims are still held hostage for over six months. Terrorist abduction is a direct challenge to the Sovereignty of the Nigerian state.

    This dichotomous categorisation of kidnappings in Nigeria showcases the dynamism and vibrancy of this nefarious enterprise seen across the length and breadth of Nigeria and is a menace to our communities. This cankerworm has eaten deep into our collective consciousness, forever altering our sense of security and safety. We are afraid of our shadows. Even the greatest of bonds, both familial and relational, is jeopardised by the fear of kidnapping. We do not travel freely on our motorways and train lines without a nagging thought of the possibility of kidnapping. Long-haul road travel is only an affair of the poor who cannot afford costly flight tickets. Flights are the only option for those who can afford them, even with much sacrifice. The economic and social implications of kidnapping and its auxiliary psychological and emotional trauma are our collective nightmare.

    The kidnapping statistics in Nigeria are sketchy and often do not capture the realities on the ground because most kidnap incidents go unreported or, when reported, are not adequately captured by security agencies. Yet, the data is as mindboggling as it is disturbing. According to a recently published report by SBM titled “The Economics of Nigeria’s Kidnap Industry”, about N653.7 million was paid as ransom in Nigeria between July 2021 and June 2022. More than 500 incidents were recorded, and 3,420 people were abducted across Nigeria, with 564 others killed in violence associated with kidnapping in one year. The report also detailed that N6.531 billion ($9.9 million) was demanded in ransom in the period considered, but only N653.7 million ($1.2 million) was paid. These figures do not include the humongous amounts paid as a ransom (at least N100 million each) by the victims of the AK9 train attack of last March.

    Recently, armed men invaded the Cherubim and Seraphim Church during a vigil programme at the Bayan Kasuwa quarters in Kajuru Local Government Area of Kaduna state, abducting at least 45 people, the Southern Kaduna Peoples Union (SOKAPU) told reporters on Monday. The kidnappers have reached out to victims’ families, demanding N200m for the release of their relatives. We can imagine the trauma this community is going through now. To compound the problem, from where will the victims raise the N200m demanded by the terrorist?

    Kidnapping for ransom has become attractive because 95% of those involved go scot-free and enjoy the monetary reward. Ineptitude of security agencies and a culture of corruption and compromise has made kidnapping gain traction. Till date, the criminals involved in both 2014 Chibok and Abuja-Kaduna train attacks are yet to be apprehended. It also thrives because kidnappers use too many ungoverned spaces and forests as operational bases for which our security operatives appear helpless in tackling. Kidnapping has become a profession. It is a profession because it has become an easy way to make money. It is ubiquitous because of the economy’s state and the youth’s lack of opportunities. Crimes have become an excellent alternative for the idle mind. The network of those involved in the industry is extensive, making it nearly impossible to track the perpetrators. You have the negotiators, the banks that receive ransom, some compromised security personnel, the police that charge a fee for tracking the kidnappers from victims’ relatives, a state intelligence network that is abdicating its responsibility or bowing to the superior intelligence of the criminals, transportation networks, communities that hide the kidnappers and unemployed youths who work as informants.

    It is simply mysterious that with the ubiquitous nature of Nigerian police officers, a plethora of intelligence agencies, military establishments, heavy budget on technology and arms, the kidnapping industry is still thriving in Nigeria with little or no consequences. Police who are primarily responsible for tackling this crime sometimes know the kingpins and their operational bases, but it is a mystery that the police seems ineffective in tracking the crime and criminals . An even more confounding mystery is the emergence of negotiators in the kidnapping enterprise. Negotiators play a vital role in the kidnapping enterprise and are known to security agencies, yet they walk around freely. The Sovereignty of the Nigerian state has never been as challenged as this criminal enterprise is currently doing. It is a mystery that the entire apparatus of the Nigerian security system has not been mobilised to defend our Sovereignty.

    To tackle kidnapping for ransom will require a cocktail of laws, intelligence, surveillance, and joint military–police operation. Recently, Nigeria’s Senate passed a bill imposing jail terms of at least 15 years for anyone paying a ransom to free someone who has been kidnapped. The bill also made abducting an individual punishable by death in cases where the victims die. The bill has not yet received presidential assent, yet it is controversial. Some have argued that it criminalises the victims and their family members, who in the event of kidnap are desperately working, often with little realistic support from the police, to get the victims out. Some have argued that the kidnap problem is not for lack of laws but the enforcement of existing laws. I must argue that this is a time to not only enforce existing laws on kidnapping, but the government should be creative in reviewing all laws pertaining to kidnapping and creatively create more, if need be, to ease tackling this menace. Nigerians welcome any law that will strike at the heart of this problem and alleviate or eliminate the scourge.

    Some people have argued that the seeming inefficiency of the security agencies and architecture in tackling kidnapping and related crime is caused by the conspiracy of the top brass in the security firmament, who think peace is much less lucrative than perpetual low-intensity conflict. Insecurity, some have argued, has become big business helping the funnelling of huge security budgets to the security sector. So, to some people, it is counter-intuitive for security officials to wipe out insecurity when that will immediately impact their funding. If this is the case, it is necessary to re-orientate these top security personnel and re-think the link between the security structures and their funding formula.

    Adequate funding is essential. A situation where kidnappers and terrorists are better equipped than our security officials is unacceptable. There is a need to integrate local intelligence, community participation, and government security apparatus in the fight against kidnapping. A massive sensitisation programme is needed to educate youths to eschew violence and kidnapping activities whilst being tough on those who choose to become kidnappers. The carrot and stick approach are essential.

    Security is a joint venture. Everyone must be involved in the protection of lives and properties. Kidnappers are human beings who live with people, interact with them, and buy things from them. It will become easy if everyone is keen to work together to eradicate them. Leaders of communities that harbour kidnappers knowingly must be made precariously liable. It behoves them to know people living in their communities and liaise with security agencies to rid the community of anyone who is a kidnapper.

    Finally, you can turn the country into a police state, but kidnapping will continue to flourish if you do not address the economy and create jobs. This macroeconomic reality stares all of us in the face. A country where almost 50% of its youths are unemployed, underemployed, or unemployable is a fertile ground for criminality such as kidnapping. A country where stupendous riches co-habit with ravenous poverty and the gap between the rich and the poor is widening each day creates a conducive socio- political and economic milieu for kidnapping. The Nigerian state must rise to the occasion and create a political, social, and economic environment that discourages crime while  promoting progress, growth, and  development.

  • Mystery of crude oil theft – By Dakuku Peterside

    Mystery of crude oil theft – By Dakuku Peterside

    Autolycus in Ancient Greek mythology achieved fame and notoriety for being a successful robber and trickster whom no one could catch. He was a source of trouble for the king and the kingdom in Ancient Greece. Autolycus, were it be in today’s Nigeria, would have been a trainee in Nigeria’s crude oil-thieving empire, which is somewhat of a mystery.

    The quantity of crude stolen daily and yearly varies from one stakeholder to another, meaning we do not even know the exact quantity stolen. In a recent interview, the Chief Of Naval Staff, Vice Admiral Awwal Gambo, raised fundamental issues about the estimated quantity of crude oil stolen daily, which he considered unrealistic and outrageous, literarily describing the given figures as the latest wonder of the world.

    The thieves’ methods are not fully understood and have different dimensions. Those involved in the stealing are only a matter of conjecture. However, many believe that the highest level of government officials, powerful business people, security personnel, oil industry operators and the host community stakeholders are involved. The crude oil thieving cartels are generally thought to be highly organised, sophisticated and at the same time complicated. The impact of the stolen crude on the national economy and other aspects of national life is now biting all Nigerians in one form or the other .

    Recent statistics regarding crude oil theft and its implication on our national politics and economy are dire. The past three months have seen a more catastrophic and massive decline in the volume of crude exported. In June, Nigeria produced 1.238 million bpd, July dropped to 1.083 million bpd and it dropped to an all-time low of 972,394 bpd in August. The August production is the lowest in the last 20 years, and if it stays the same, could amount to a loss of about $20bn in the year under review at an average price of $100 per barrel.

    Like has been argued elsewhere, it is not only a loss of revenue but also of jobs, opportunities, and possibilities. USD20bn can cushion our debt burden, increase our distributable income, and shore up our foreign reserves. Another impact of the drop in oil revenue attributable to crude oil theft is that NNPC Ltd did not contribute to the federation account for more than four months.

    This crude oil theft has been on for years and seems to defy every solution. It has become a national embarrassment, especially now that the oil price is at its peak, and other nations and corporations are smiling to the bank, rebuilding their economy from the proceeds of the oil windfall, while Nigeria’s revenue is at risk and is bleeding with complicated economic challenges. Today, this column will focus on three aspects of this endless cycle that has literarily threatened our national life: Its impact on gas revenue generation, overall investment in Nigeria, and national revenue.

    Revenue from gas export and feedstock sales to the Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas Limited (NLNG) hit $243.57 million in the first quarter of 2022 (Q1’22), surpassing receipts from crude oil export by 259.4 per cent under the same period. This revenue which has a potential of reaching $300m per quarter plus future investment in gas growth ventures, is threatened by massive insecurity and pipeline vandalism . The reason is that NLNG feedgas mix comprises associated and non-associated natural gas sources, most of which are sourced from onshore/swamp area oil and gas production assets of its upstream gas suppliers.

    The incidences of pipeline vandalism are primarily concentrated in these shallow offshore/swamp areas, resulting in significant feedgas supply disruptions to the NLNG Plant whenever these assets are impacted. Year to date, 2022, the NLNG Plant has operated at about 65% utilisation capacity ( compared to 95-98% availability and reliability) because of feedgas shortages occasioned by frequent disruptions of upstream oil and gas operations following these vandalisation incidences. The difference between plant availability and current utilization translates to over 2billion dollars in revenue. So far, in 2022, NLNG has recorded significant production opportunity losses, impacting revenues.

    Nigeria’s gas reserve is estimated at 208 trillion cubic feet by 2022 . Gas resources are a vital pillar of Nigeria’s energy transition plan, and this could be under serious threat if the crude oil stealing and pipeline vandalism continue unabated.

    On its impact on investment, Crude oil theft and related pipeline sabotage have forced some companies to shut down production and / or sell off their assets. Shell, Chevron, Mobil, and other international oil companies (IOC) are divesting their land and shallow offshore assets mainly because they no longer see growth potentials in them. It is also the same for marginal field operators. They all cite the significant difference between what they produce at wellhead and output at terminals as an operational challenge that makes a mess of their investment.

    This difference in crude production at terminals, plus the cost of cleaning up the environment and other security challenges, is a disincentive for new investment to come into the sector and the country. Persistent crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism has contributed significantly to the loss of investor interest and confidence in the oil and gas space. This partially explains why Nigeria is no longer mainly an attractive destination for foreign direct investment.

    The micro and macro-economic impact of crude oil theft are apparent. With oil theft and illegal bunkering taking as much as 200,000 to 400,000 barrels per day of the country’s oil production, the country’s fiscal stability is threatened.

    While the economic impact of the new wave of oil theft ravages the nation, losses to oil thieves and official leakages could overtake official receipts of oil revenues into the Nigerian treasury. Already, Nigeria, today, has the 25th highest inflation rate in the world, with price cost rises mainly driven by higher energy and food prices. The Naira had lost almost 95% of its value in five years, crossing N705/$ in the parallel market.This depreciation of value is among other factors linked to our dip in revenue.

    There is a need for an urgent national emergency response. Some influential individuals have hijacked the Nigerian state and are bent on strangulating it financially. The crude oil thieves are committing treason and destroying Nigerians’ present and future hopes and economic potential. The inability of the government to deal with this situation demonstrates the abysmal state of governance in Nigeria or that the non-state actors in connivance with some elements within the government and security sector are more powerful than the state and are holding the Nigerian state to ransom.

    An inexplicable dimension is the embarrassing failure of our security and defence forces in protecting oil pipelines and installations. After over 20 years of insurgent disruptions of oil and gas installations in the Niger Delta, it is curious that the Nigerian armed forces have not yet developed a specialized capacity to protect this vital sector. Instead, military officers deployed in the region, working with other actors have become part of an endless racket of oil thieves and vandals.

    Crude oil theft is not surreptitious and requires a highly planned and organised operation. How can big ocean liners used to lift crude oil that is stolen move freely within our territorial waters and succeed without detection from all the security agencies and government officials working daily in these areas? If this continues unabated, it will bring Nigeria to its knees financially, economically, and politically.

    The state of things in Nigeria is not only embarrassing but stifling and suffocating the hopes and aspirations of its citizens, and it calls to question Nigeria’s very essence and existence. These actions are gradually becoming the norm instead of the exception, and those responsible for acting on our behalf abdicate responsibility and shift blame while the Nigerian economy gradually caves in.

    A recent report by Proshare Research, titled “The anatomy of crude oil theft in Nigeria:understanding the graft, impact, and implications” proposed that stopping oil vandals would require a combination of public policy, market action and military operations. I agree, but most importantly, the leadership’s political will, backed by a firm commitment to stop the bleeding, will make the difference. Realising that crude oil theft and pipeline vandalisation can imperil national survival, the government can elicit some intense action to curb it. Negligence is not an option, and the buck stops on the table of the government. If the government fails to tackle this problem and eliminate crude oil theft, it should be directly, vicariously, and precariously liable for the impact and consequences of such inactions.

    It is evident that some influential individuals at different strata of public, private and security sector leadership, taking advantage of their privileged position and vast network, have converted state assets to personal assets under the guise of oil theft. This has made curbing crude oil theft almost impossible and should not be the case. This is a crime against the state and must be treated as such. The government must go after perpetrators of this dastardly act and severely punish them as a deterrent to others. Economic sabotage is a severe crime against the state and is very reprehensible. It is even more dangerous when people doing it directly or in cahoots with others are in high government and security positions. The greed and corruption among officials are the banes of Nigeria.

  • The Nigerian Relevance of Queen Elizabeth – By Dakuku Peterside

    The Nigerian Relevance of Queen Elizabeth – By Dakuku Peterside

    A critical chapter in the history of the British empire was closed on Thursday, 8th September 2022, and a new one opened. Queen Elizabeth 11 died at her holiday home in Balmoral castle in Scotland. Her over 70-year-old reign on the British throne meant no monarch reigned longer than her in more than a thousand years of British history. No other head of state today is as well travelled, politically experienced or astute as the Queen. She was one of the most recognised figures in the world.

    The Queen was the symbol of true Britishness, the embodiment of its democracy and a stoic representation of stability and continuity, bridging the old and new in the dynamic and increasingly turbulent world. The Queen, a figure of great respect and admiration by many globally, was dearly loved in Britain and the Commonwealth. Her death had many implications for people worldwide, particularly those searching for identity, stability, continuity, and a symbol of unity.

    Queen Elizabeth 11 was not only the Queen of England but a symbol of an enduring monarchy that triumphed for all seasons and successfully united the past and present and matched into the future without losing relevance. This Queen was so good at controlling the monarchy that people around the world tend to forget that the monarchy is an institution like other organic institutions of everyday life subjected to vagaries of changes and vicissitudes of socio-political drudgeries of life beyond anybody’s control. The Queen’s astute devotion to duty and modesty made the average Briton proud of the monarchy, which is evident in people’s responses to her death in Britain and globally. She is held in the highest esteem by many. And this is due to her uncommon sense of decency, duty, and loyalty to her family and the state.

    The dynamism of the British monarchy has seen it survive rapid changes and adapt to a new world system. Under the reign of Queen Elizabeth, the monarchy has survived a world war, the spread of democracy, the end of colonialism, the decline of similar institutions elsewhere, the rise of individualism and the unprecedented influence of technology. Yet in all these changes, by simple reason of self-discipline, devotion and adaptability, the Queen, the symbol of the monarchy, continued to be seen and admired as a symbol of stability, continuity, and responsibility, uniting the proud legacies of the British empire of old and aspiration of modern Britons.

    In performing these duties and caring for her subjects’ interests, the Queen won the hearts and minds of Britons and many admirers globally. She inspires a sense of pride in the monarchy, albeit a constitutional monarchy with most state power devolved to the parliament.

    The British monarchy has managed to operate above politics, maintained neutrality and has done everything possible to unite the people and give them hope. Whereas it does not interfere with the day-to-day management of government business, it has remained relevant in protecting the interest and welfare of the average British. This complementarity of the relationship between the people and the monarchy creates immense pride in the institution. And it inspires the people to love, cherish and defend the monarchy and the Queen against the scathing attacks of the anti-monarchists.

    Love for the monarchy is seen in the outpouring of grief in Britain and globally at Queen’s death. This grief is succinctly captured by the French President, who told the British that Queen Elizabeth 11 was their Queen, but she was the Queen to him. World leaders and ordinary citizens in Britain are in solidarity with the royal family, the British government, and the citizens of Britain in grieving for the Queen. The question is: how is it that the British are so proud of their monarchy as an institution, which ordinarily ought to be an ancient historical artefact, whereas Nigerians are not proud of their country’s national institutions such as the National Assembly, Judiciary, the military and traditional rulers? Are Nigerians loyal to these institutions ? Do they trust the representation of these institutions?

    The answer to these questions lies in the role of such institutions and their impact on the people. Many Nigerians distrust these institutions and hate relationships with them and those leading them. This lack of trust is a product of their experience with these institutions, which is often negative, and unimpactful. Historically and presently, the actions and inactions of these institutions do not inspire a loving feeling amongst the citizens. The military institution in Nigeria is increasingly smeared in sleaze ,corruption allegations and perception of ineffectiveness . It is seen as failing to tackle insecurity within the country, and when it relates to citizens, some unscrupulous soldiers lord it over or even maltreat citizens they are supposed to protect. Their political incursion left a sour taste in the mouths of many citizens who blame the military involvement in politics as the cause of Nigeria’s myriads of problems.

    The traditional monarchies are quickly losing the respect and love of the people because many are hugely political, and others are corrupt and are not upholding the high moral and traditional standards of the people as custodians of our shared cultural heritage. National Assembly is perceived as an institution that oppresses the people instead of defending their interests through representation and law-making. The ties that bind citizens with these institutions are loosening by the day because they do not positively impact Nigerians, and they have become part of the problem instead of a solution to our collective problems.

    Many Nigerians do not believe these institutions have their interest at heart, and some are not even fit for purpose. The ordinary person does not see the judiciary as his last hope because he believes that justice is commercialised, and the courts are the playground of the rich where justice is bought and sold to the highest bidder. Ask any average Nigerian whether he wants to settle a court case. Many will rather be victims of injustice than accept the arduous journey in our courts.

    Some Nigerians will accuse the executive arm of the government of mismanaging Nigeria, and some of the leaders in the executive arm have been proven to be either incapable of leading their home, much more leading a nation, or crassly and fantastically corrupt, that they engage in wanton primitive accumulation of wealth by stealing from our commonwealth. The recent sleaze emanating from the defence of some corrupt leaders who claim that snakes, rats, and other animals swallow financial documents or lump sums of money does not inspire a love relationship between them and the citizens. This is made worse by the fact that these allegations often go unpunished, and perpetrators continue to serve in government in one way or the other.

    Many Nigerians see these institutions as agents of subjugation and oppression of the citizens. They feel these institutions serve the narrow interests of the elite and do nothing for ordinary Nigerians. The more the citizens suffer economic hardship and political brutality from the government and its institutions, the more the hate relationship intensifies between them. In the end, it will be interesting to see a credible survey on citizens’ trust rate in six critical national institutions: the army, police, National Assembly, Traditional Rulers, the Executive, and the Judiciary. It may open our eyes to the gap between the leaders and the led and why our institutions cannot get the same level of loyalty as the Queen got from Britons.

    Loyalty is won through a positive impact on the citizens. Great leaders like Awolowo, Azikiwe and Tafawa Balewa received similar grieving from citizens when they died. Their contribution to the development of Nigeria was clear to the citizens, and they developed a connection with these leaders because of the impact their leadership had on people’s lives. Like the Queen and patriotic Nigerian leaders of national institutions, new leaders and institutions must change and impact positively on the people by putting their interest above personal interest.

    All institutions must reinvent themselves to survive. The monarchy in Britain was adept at constantly reinventing itself to make a meaningful impact on society. The Queen was an expert in doing this. She understands that change is constant and managing it has become an expanding discipline, and how we embrace the change defines our future. The benchmark for managing these changes is positive and impactful leadership. Doing it selflessly, quietly, and with a sense of decorum no matter the prevailing circumstance is what endears leaders and institutions to the citizens.

    We must do whatever it takes to improve the relationship between Nigerians, the leaders, and the institutions. Like the Brits love and cherish functional institutions that add value to their society, like the monarchy, may Nigerians learn to cherish institutions that impact their lives positively and use opportunities that present themselves to show the world that we love our institutions.

  • Mikhail Gorbachev, Nigeria, and hard choices – By Dakuku Peterside

    Mikhail Gorbachev, Nigeria, and hard choices – By Dakuku Peterside

    A significant chapter of global history was closed on 30th August 2022. On that day, an equally substantive champion of reforms passed and bequeathed us a mixed assessment of his contribution to the new world order. Mikhail Gorbachev is that man. He was not alone in this powerful club. His best-known contemporaries were Ronald Regan of the USA and Margaret Thatcher of the UK. They were not ideological soulmates but shared a heart for radical reforms.

    Gorbachev represents different personalities depending on which side of the cliff you stand. Widely seen in Russia as the man responsible for the collapse of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev is hailed in the West as the leader who helped end the Cold War in Europe and nudged Russia towards political liberalisation. Many on the left in the “global South” blame him for facilitating US triumph in the Cold War and creating a global imbalance in favour of the West.

    His record is much more complicated than the extreme perceptions of his brief tenure as the last General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union during 1985-91. Whichever way one assesses the leader, who died Tuesday at 91, there is no denying his role as a world-historical figure who altered post-War international politics.

    He did not set out to dismantle the Soviet Union. That was an unintended outcome of his effort to reform the Russian economy (perestroika), inject a measure of openness into its closed society (glasnost), end the arms race with the US, build cooperative relations with Europe, and pull back from military adventurism in Afghanistan and the developing world.

    The perestroika (“restructuring” or “reformation”), which he started then, never reached the destination he wanted – democratic, humane socialism;perhaps because that destination was utopia rather than a real place. The glasnost (openness) policy revolutionised Soviet Union society by allowing for a vibrant civil society and relatively free press. Glasnost galvanised opposition to Soviet rule and gave the people the ‘fuel’ to burn down the communist ideology of the time. But there is no doubt that Gorbachev welcomed Western ideas and assistance—seemingly recognising that an open economy and a vibrant civil society were the keys to his country’s future, not just something to please the West.

    As a young member of the CPSU Politburo, taking charge of a society mired in multiple crises, Gorbachev believed that rejuvenating the Soviet Union was his patriotic task. But he could not control the forces he unleashed. This, in turn, led to the collapse of the communist system that the 1917 Russian Revolution founded. During the seven decades that it lasted, the Soviet Union had a powerful impact on world affairs — playing a critical role in defeating fascism in Europe, constructing the post-War order in Europe, and inspiring communist movements worldwide.

    Three decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, many of Gorbachev’s presumed triumphs have turned out to be ephemeral. After a brief flowering of liberalism, hopes for democracy in Russia have withered away. The peace Gorbachev constructed in Europe went up in flames as Russia invaded Ukraine in February. If Gorbachev hoped for constructive relations with the West, President Vladimir Putin is now locked in a severe confrontation with Europe and the US.

    In Nigeria, the leftist establishment deeply mourned the collapse of the Soviet Union and the disappearance of a familiar political, economic, and ideological world. In retrospect, though, the collapse of the Soviet Union compelled Nigeria to reform its economy, reorient its foreign policy and push hard to elevate its global standing in early 1990. This drove a further push away from Babangida’s Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) reform which was a bold move to transform the Nigerian state, economically and socially.

    Reflecting on the life and times of Mikhail Gorbachev leads us to foundational and fundamental issues about Nigeria’s economic, political, and social evolution but, most notably, a future marked by uncertainty and rapid changes. The parallelism between Nigeria of today and the Soviet Union of Gorbachev is apparent. The decay of the Nigerian systems is internal, and the cancerous nature needs painful surgery to remove the affected organs of the system to have any chance of growth in Nigeria.

    Corruption, insecurity, criminality,poverty, youth unemployment and hopelessness are ravaging the country, and if nothing is done now, it may push Nigeria over the precipice. However, like the Soviet Union, we must take care not to kill the Nigerian state by unleashing reforms whose consequences may not be clear and may lead to the unravelling of the Nigerian state like that of the Soviet Union. Therefore, Nigeria has a lot to learn from Gorbachev and the reform and collapse of the Soviet Union.

    Nigeria has come to a point where it requires immediate holistic reforms and transformation to lead the country in a direction that will positively impact its development. The existing systems are not working, and it is apparent to all. Only a madman will keep doing the same thing and expect a different outcome. Nigeria needs to overhaul the political system, which is barely democratic.

    The forthcoming 2023 general election is such a democratic ritual that Nigeria performs. These elections produce leaders who lack the leadership skills, competence, vision, and dexterity to take Nigeria to Uhuru. Most politicians make bold promises to the electorate without plans to accomplish such promises. The electorate often has little or no choice in selecting good leaders since the political structures present to the electorates incompetent people as candidates for elections. The electorate is to be blamed too. Many are apolitical, apathetic, or greedy, so politicians quickly buy their votes at ridiculous prices.

    However, Nigeria has neglected chiefly the democratic principles, ethos and institutions that make democracy function well. Nigeria has not imbibed democratic principles such as the rule of law, credible democratic institutions, independence of the judiciary, freedom of life, property, and conscience. We need leaders who not only are products of good democratic processes but are also adherents and advocates of democratic principles and ethos.

    Therefore, there is a need to look at the party systems and practices that produce candidates, improve the credibility of elections, and overhaul the Nigerian structure based on the people’s yearnings and aspirations as part of the Nigerian entity. And appraise the move from centralisation to more decentralisation of power (getting real power closer to the people), structure the different organs of government to be fit for purpose, and create a political consensus that is pro-development, pro-humanism, and pro-quality living standards for all Nigerians.

    This reform must be gradual and pushed from the centre with the buy-in of people from all parts of Nigeria. The universalism of collective national interest must subsume ethnicism, regionalism and religious jingoism for the benefit of all. The leader allays the fears, suspicion, and hatred of people from various parts of the country. And the leaders must share their visions with the people and show them how they work hard to actualise their ideas.

    The leaders must restructure the Nigerian economy to be more productive. There is no basis for growth if all we do is consume and not produce, mainly when 70% of what we consume comes from abroad. Even the little we produce is pure rent-seeking because we focus on selling them as raw materials at lower prices and buying finished goods at exorbitant prices. We cannot even fully exploit natural resources, even if we cannot transform them into finished goods – we have plenty of arable lands, yet we cannot produce enough food for our consumption. We exploit natural oil and gas, yet we cannot meet our OPEC monthly quota. Our economy is dependent heavily on government expenditure.

    When government revenue is weak, the whole economy of the country suffers. This has led to excessive government borrowing and has plunged Nigeria into a debt crisis, where 120% of our revenue is needed monthly to service the loans. Nigeria needs a leader who, through good implementable policies, will transform Nigeria’s economy. Nigeria should learn from countries like Singapore, UAE, and South Korea, which changed their economy over the past few decades to become a developed economy. The leader must have the courage to make difficult decisions to run a modern capitalist economy driven by market principles but adapted to serve Nigeria’s peculiar interests.

    There needs to be social reform. The leader should build this social reform on the positive collective socio-cultural mores and pro-development ethos.. In a multi-religious society, freedom of worship, respect, and tolerance of the religious views of others are sacrosanct. The leaders and the citizens must eschew all forms of religious or ethnic bigotry and embrace the brotherhood of citizens of one nation and one people.

    Our social creed will be the eternal principle of “E Pluribus unum” (Out of many, one). We must create a cohesive social movement geared towards the development of Nigeria. This social movement will create the enabling environment for getting everyone involved – an action reminiscent of the independence movement, where some Nigerians happily laid down their lives to actualise freedom from colonial rule.

    Gorbachev has played his part in history. He will be remembered as a leader with great intention to reform his country and influence world order but couldn’t control the outcomes of such reforms that led to the collapse of his country. He made a lot of hard choices to push his country in a new direction because he saw the internal decays and contradictions that may have inevitably led to its collapse. Nigeria needs a leader in the ilk of Gorbachev with the sincerity of purpose and courage to upturn the system and make the hard choices Nigeria desperately needs. However, this leader must be careful to manage the reforms to avoid the disaster of the collapse of Nigeria, just like the Soviet Union.

  • Gov Wike countered on how Rivers people’ll vote in 2023

    Gov Wike countered on how Rivers people’ll vote in 2023

    A chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Rivers State, Dr Dakuku Peterside has countered the State Governor Nyesom Wike after saying that he [Wike] will tell people of the State who to vote for in the 2023 general elections in due course.

    Dr Peterside, a former Director General of Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) averred that Rivers people are politically sophisticated and as such, no one single individual would be able to succeed in influencing how they would vote during elections.

    TheNewsGuru.com (TNG) reports that the former NIMASA boss made this disclosure while speaking at a rally organized by Reevas Progressive Front (RPF), a Non-Governmental Organisation (NGO), in Opobo, headquarters of Opobo/Nkoro LGA, where over five hundred members of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) defected to APC.

    Peterside stressed that against the recent claims by Governor Wike, Rivers people know their real leaders who have their interest at heart, opining that not opportunists taking advantage of the economic situation to embarrass them.

    “Rivers people know who their true leaders are; not those who presently take advantage of the harsh economic situation to hoodwink and turn them into articles of political and financial merchandise,” he said.

    Speaking further, the APC chieftain described the past seven years as one of the worst eras in Rivers State as a result of what he say is a leadership driven by selfish interest and unbridled ego.

    “There is no doubt that the last seven remain the worst in Rivers’ history. The ordinary Rivers man and woman were left out of governance while those in authority enriched themselves, appropriated the people’s commonwealth and shamelessly brandished even that which they stole, before the people. Rivers people never had it this bad,” the former NIMASA DG noted.

    Peterside, who is a former member of the federal House of Representatives, noted that the Opobo and Nkoro ethnic groups were one of the most politically enlightened stocks in Rivers State even as he averred that they could not be deceived or blackmailed by any Greek gift as Gov. Wike is doing at theory.

    “Opobo/Nkoro people are one of the most politically enlightened stocks in Rivers State and no one can deceive us with a Greek gift. Gov. Wike had opportunity of developing Opobo-Nkoro in the past 7 years but did not do it. He preferred to fret away our resources junketing abroad searching for personal relevance that will not add value to Rivers state and her people”, he said.

    Peterside stated that at the appropriate time, Opobo and Nkoro people would openly prove to Wike that they well took note of his neglect of the area.

    “We will remind our people how much Wike and his cohorts failed them and why we cannot continue in that trajectory”, he stressed.

    Continuing, the former Federal lawmaker said that Nigerians had been unanimous in the type of leaders they would elect in 2023.

    “Nigerians are unanimous that the next election will be about character, competence and service delivery. It will not be about ethnicity. Opobo- Nkoro people know that a competent Governor with character they would be proud of would be superior to brandishing ethnic sentiment,”. he said.

    While urging Rivers people to “keep hope alive,” Peterside commended the NGO and others who took part in the rally.

  • A nation in chains – By Dakuku Peterside

    A nation in chains – By Dakuku Peterside

    Something remarkable happened last week at the 2022 Nigeria Bar Association( NBA)conference in Lagos. However, social media was awash with mundane, trivial, irrelevant, and cosmetic portrayals and representations of the Vice-Presidential candidate of APC at that event. They focussed on the appropriateness, type, and size of the shoe the ebullient Senator Kashim Shettima wore and wholly ignored the substance of his presentation. The slant of the social media and a section of media commentators is enough proof that we are a nation that loves chasing shadows instead of substance, a country of comedians that once made us the happiest people on earth. I understand the Nigerian audience’s picking entirely on the humorous dimensions of his presentation and persona, for we must not take life too seriously at times. However, we as a nation must chew and digest the meaty part of the presentation while assessing the qualities, ideas, and competencies of candidates vying for the office of the presidency in Nigeria.

    Senator Kashim Shettima, the former governor of Borno state, proposed two theses that deserve interrogation but for which only a few took note. The first thesis is that the changing global dynamics and complexity of the Nigerian situation demand that we enthrone leaders with a different skill set, mindset, and deep understanding of the world economy to survive and thrive in a fast-changing world.

    At the NBA conference, he and Peter Obi were united in a common position that the 2023 election should be about competence, character, and commitment to deliver on a shared vision. And not about tribe, religion, or connection. He argued that our next leaders must come with the right mix of leadership skillset, track record of performance in public or private life and a deep understanding of the global economy’s dynamism to make informed decisions.

    This leadership skillset entails that the leader must clearly understand our problems in all their ramifications, articulate solutions to these problems, put into action innovative and creative ideas on how to tackle these problems, and advance a shared vision for our country. These leadership skill sets are not just knowledge-based but are experiential. The leaders must have acquired them over time, practically actively leading and offering solutions and advancing humanity by enthroning prosperity and a better standard of living for all. Nigerians are yearning for this type of leadership.

    A performance track record over the years gives the leader experience in leadership required in a multi-ethnic, multi- religious and multi-cultural heterogeneous society. We need a Nigerian leader, not a tribal one. A leader who has demonstrated capacity in building bridges and creating national cohesion through extraordinary demonstratable and evidence-based engagement across the country. The leader’s record of performance should extend to his ability to accomplish incredible feats of progress, show extraordinary selflessness devoid of corruption, and have clear evidence of accomplishments in any sector of his endeavours.

    Sound economic knowledge has increasingly become an attribute a Nigerian President must have given the dire economic conditions of Nigeria and the corresponding bleak economic outlook for the future given our current economic and financial predicaments. On the issue of sound economic knowledge, Afe Babalola, SAN, had in an earlier open letter advocated its importance, especially at a time of national financial distress when economic direction from the top is needed. He must make very tough economic decisions to stop Nigeria from continuing haemorrhaging economically. The import of this thesis is what I advocated in my column of 13 June 2022, after the presidential primaries of the parties. I argued, “It is time to rethink our politics, party nomination process, the basis of our choices as individuals and the future of our country”.

    Shetima’s fundamental argument is that the forthcoming elections offer us an opportunity to rethink our leadership recruitment process. Times have changed, and the country is at a pivotal, historical, and precarious moment. We must consider the democratic basis of our electing national leadership and our overarching democratic values. Whether Shettima, his principal or any of the frontline presidential candidates satisfy his prescription of an ideal future president is a different issue altogether. The critical issue for resolution is how we ensure we elect leaders who fit this bill at the different levels of leadership. Whose responsibility is it to mobilise the populace to demand leaders with the right skills set for this season?

    The second thesis is that Nigeria is a giant in chains and only a visionary, competent, honest, determined, focused and innovative leader can set us free from this invisible chain and unleash our full potential. The imperative of his thesis is that our potential as a country has laid untapped and often wasted. We have been a nation of great potential for too long. This is more so because of our leaders’ poor leadership skills, corruption, and ineptitude. Some selfishly and shamelessly put themselves before the people they lead. Nigeria is a giant in chains and has not pulled its weight among the comity of nations. Recently it has been a butt of jokes among even smaller African countries how Nigeria no longer coughs, and cold catches the smaller nations. Nigeria’s per capita income is ranked lower than some smaller African countries. The paradox is that Nigeria has a significant natural, human, and technological capital but performs socially, economically, and politically abysmally.

    A cursory overview of our underutilised assets will give us a better perspective of the importance of this statement. We are the most populous black nation on earth, with 80% of our population below 50 years. This 80% population is at their most productive age, yet it has been most unproductive. Nigerians are some of the most intelligent and hardworking people at work. The Nigerian diaspora showcases ingenuity and doggedness in achieving great strides in their host countries. Our creative sector dominates Africa’s creative industry and is making waves internationally. However, a more significant proportion of our population is unemployed, underemployed, or unemployable. We have the 9th most arable land on planet earth and can feed most of Africa, but we are still a net importer of food to feed our teeming population, and most of our land is not put to optimal use. Our vast natural endowments remain untapped for national development, and where it is tapped, there is severe inefficiency and sabotage.

    Conversely, Nigeria leadership has been bogged down by the combined forces of vested interest; business cartels, economic collectives, multinationals, ethno religious factions, and regional bigots. Paradoxically, it is from these zones that our successive leaderships either emerged or are sponsored. The country has been held down by a lack of visionary leadership, corruption, weak institutions, lack of trust in our judiciary, inept and corrupt civil service, ethnicity and nepotism, dearth or poor infrastructure, and an unproductive population. The manifestation of this chain is a low level of human development, one of the lowest per capita incomes ($2,085), a high level of poverty (87m persons by 2020 world bank data), a high rate of unemployment (33.3%, NBS data), dependence on primary agriculture, insecurity, rapid population growth, high rate of out of school children, heightened insecurity and banditry, and secessionist agitations.

    The critical issue is who will break this chain and set us on the path to fulfilling our full potential. This decade’s most crucial action for Nigerians is to elect a capable president in 2023. This president will face the mother of all economic crises, given the dire nature of our economy. We are net consumers of goods and services, our exchange rate regime is almost collapsing, our debt to revenue ratio (120%) is alarming, our educational system is decrepit, and the moral and ethical fibres of the country are in tatters. It is a dog- eat-dog situation; for many, survival is a daily struggle. The new president must be capable of facing these challenges and articulating solutions.

    The new president in order to free the nation from the chains must first break the chains that tie him to existing power structure and break the symbolic chains of corruption, nepotism, mismanagement, and economic sabotage to make Nigeria great again. The president must make Nigeria productive and prosperous by situating Nigeria in the regional and global economic context that is pro-business, pro-education, pro-health, and pro-humanity. The new president must have a clear agenda and make
    a significant improvement in that area. He must harness the vast knowledge and intellectual capital of Nigeria. And create an enabling environment for most Nigerian to actualise their God-given talents and potentials, and contribute in building a virile, broad based and diversified economy.

    To break this chain, the president must rally Nigerians and carry them along. He must get the buy-in of many people and institutions to create a better Nigeria and lead from the front to achieve his goals. In making the needed tough decisions to reshape and structure our economy, the president must be both compassionate and courageous , confident, and resolute in carrying out the actions whilst empathetically taking care of the most vulnerable in society. The first few years of the next presidency will make or mar our chances of getting it right. Therefore, Nigerians need a president with the mandate of the people and the people’s interest at heart.

    Shetima’s vision of a new Nigeria is clear. That vision is encapsulated in breaking the symbolic chains limiting Nigeria from achieving greatness. The principal tool for this unchaining act is building an excellent economy based on productivity, socio-political cohesion, and security of lives and property of every Nigerian. If elected, the president and vice will have their work cut out to transform Nigeria. Nigeria truly needs a change that will impact positively on most Nigerians. It is time we broke the captivity and bondage of our symbolic chains and used the opportunity of the 2023 elections to get the right leaders who will make things right in Nigeria.

  • Why we may elect the wrong leaders in 2023 – By Dakuku Peterside

    Why we may elect the wrong leaders in 2023 – By Dakuku Peterside

    We are in a profound national crisis, notably in the economic and security spheres, and there is no easy way out. The choice we make in 2023 will substantially determine the future of our country and the next generation. So much is at stake! I forewarn all that there is no messiah in sight. Anybody elected will have limitations, but at least we are looking for that man or woman who can think, inspire action, mobilize, and harness our diverse talents, roll up his sleeves to work and radiate hope – the audacity of hope for a better Nigeria that will satisfy the yearnings of present and future generations.

    It is a fact that the outcome of the 2023 elections in terms of quality of presidential candidates is already predetermined. The leadership selection process of the parties has already narrowed the options. The challenge for the discerning is who among the saints or sinners offered us by the political parties meets the criteria of what our country needs at this moment?

    Unfortunately, but true, democracy does not always throw up the best. To paraphrase a statement attributed to Thomas Jefferson, “a democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where 51 percent of the people may take away the rights of the other 49.” History is replete with nations that elected leaders that plunged them into crisis. Adolf Hitler, the acclaimed motivational speaker, was elected at a time of widespread economic misery, fear, perception of worse hardship to come as well as anger against the reigning government at the time. Muqtada Al-Sadr rode at the back of religious sentiment and was elected in post Saddam Iraq. Nicolas Maduro and Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, and Mauricio Macri of Argentina were all elected by their people. My point is that nations, both in advanced and emerging democracies can elect bad leaders. When democracy throws up the wrong leaders, it has a significant detrimental effect on the polity. It manifest as lack of foresight and ideas to create an enabling environment that will promote national development, spike in corruption, abuse of human rights and stifling of socio-economic space.

    The existential situation in Nigeria is such that we cannot afford to elect bad leaders in 2023. Despite our apparent challenges, which may be terminal if not well managed, why would Nigerians elect the wrong leaders in 2023, which is a defining election?

    I deliberately surveyed 100 persons I consider enlightened and knowledgeable in the political economy of Nigeria, and I will gladly share my findings. From my survey, there are a few reasons why we can elect the wrong persons without vision,the capacity and character to lead us. These issues appear common sensicle and are individually capable of derailing the quest to elect good leaders. However, in the Nigerian context, these issues come together to make a cohesive, hydra-headed, and complex form that creates an inevitability of political doom capable of derailing our quest for good leaders come 2023.

    The first factor is the significant relationship between personal economic wellbeing and political behaviour in Nigeria’s political milieu. In our political culture, the electorate often prefers immediate selfish benefit during elections as an inducement to determine their choice of voting than the long-term considerations of the impact of the leadership on the country. Little wonder people buy and sell votes reminiscent of open market transactions, where many are willing to sell their franchise for a meagre N2,000 to N10,000.

    This problem is made worse by the impact of economic hardship on most voters living below the poverty line and in a short-term survival mood. Money for survival for a day or two may sway their political voting choice because economic hardship will push them to vote as dictated by their stomach and not the head. When juxtaposed with informed predictions of the possible economic landscape next year where more Nigerians will be pushed to below poverty line , it becomes evident that economic misery will be a factor that will determine choices amongst the poorest folks amongst us and they constitute 70% of the electorate.

    The problem of vote buying is not just a poverty issue, as seen in the recent primaries of the major political parties for various political candidatures. Even among the political elite, it is a function of greed and insatiable desire for primitive accumulation. Our society rewards those who cheat and engage in corrupt practices so long as they are ready to pay. They are the ones with ready and free money. They amass great financial war-chest to prosecute elections to buy power at all costs. And they loot our commonwealth when in power to compensate their financial sponsors, profit from their financial investment in the power struggle, and steal more money to be ready for the next election and power struggle and this becomes cyclic. Power is magnetic to corrupt people. They have monetized the system that has become accepted by the majority that elections cost colossal money and are not for people who make clean money.

    This has unintended consequences. Nigerians with good leadership qualities and capacities – those who can manage Nigeria out of our distress, are left out of the game because they have not amassed great money “to share”.

    The second factor is that power in Nigeria is relational and often an emotive transaction. The build-up to the 2023 election has seen drama based on people deciding that power must go to a person or group because of the section of the country they come from, their ethnicity, their religion, their network, and their connections. The brouhaha of the South/North divide on producing the next president, the southeast agitation to produce the next president based on equity, justice, and fairness, the Muslim/Muslim ticket saga and the strong reactions from both Muslims and Christians, and the agism propaganda for specific candidates are all testimony to how significant these emotive issues are to the Nigerian electorate. Issues of capacity, moral standing, principles of leaders, and a demonstration of their ability to create a new vision for Nigeria and take Nigeria to achieve that vision whilst solving myriads of Nigeria’s problems, are placed second in the emerging narrative of the 2023 elections.

    One will assume that as bad as the Nigerian situation is, many people will look out for leaders who have what it takes to change things in Nigeria for the better. But that is not the case. The tripartite perennial emotive influences of ethnicity, religion, and party affiliation are still significant considerations for voting and it is part of the reason for our national albatross.

    Nigeria and Nigerians need good leadership and must push primordial sentiments to the background if we want to progress. The effect of bad leadership and poor governance affects all, no matter the ethnic group, religious affiliations, or social class.

    The 2023 presidential election cannot afford to follow the trajectory of being influenced by religious, ethnic and party affiliation or sentiments as it will be our bane. There must be proper interrogation of the candidate’s capacity to perform as president of a country undergoing the worst security, economic and social crises in a generation. The critical question the electorate must ask is: If Nigeria PLC is my company, who among the candidates will I employ to manage its affairs? The answer to this question will help you reflect on the bases of your choice of candidate.

    The third factor is that we lack national consciousness and consensus. We don’t have Nigerians in the real sense of it but Hausa, Fulani, Ibo, Yoruba, Ijaw, et cetera. This is forcing us to be reactive on almost all issues and contextualize all matters from a tribal perspective. We still put our ethnic and religious identity above our “Nigerianess”. Without national consensus, personal and group interests driven by economic factors, promises and affiliations (political, social, and religious) reign. I propose we build a national consensus about fixing Nigeria and allow this sentiment to dictate our choice of leaders come 2023.

    The final factor is the problem of our collective culture of negativity and cynicism. Many Nigerians have lost hope in Nigeria, and their actions and inactions portray this ugly state. The cynicism is seen in the youths and the middle class increasingly adopting a “japa” stance. They look for every opportunity to jump out of the sinking ship of Nigeria and move to countries they feel will provide them opportunities to fulfil their potential.

    Also, it is seen in the voter apathy and lack of political participation by many people. This is worse seen among the Nigerian literati and intellectuals who have relegated everything to do with politics and power struggles to politicians, some of whom have not been productive in any sphere of life. How can they leave the vital matter of power and managing of national resources in the hands of such people because of their cynicism?

    The factors considered above are vital to truncate our collective aspirations of getting good leaders, come 2023, who will champion a paradigm shift or we continue with our business as usual governance marked by vain rituals. I plead with all stakeholders in the Nigerian project to start sensitizing the electorate using any platform available on the need to get it right in 2023 by electing leaders not based on the failed primordial sentiment foundations of the past but the new paradigm of foresight, ideas, capacity, experience, knowledge, and leadership skills. Only by so doing will we not elect the wrong leaders in 2023. When the electorate of Nigeria democratically elects leaders like any other country, we get the government we voted for. If we vote for a government that will destroy our economy or make other bad decisions, we get to live with the consequences.

  • From Nairobi to Nigeria: Kenyan election as a mirror election – By Dakuku Peterside

    From Nairobi to Nigeria: Kenyan election as a mirror election – By Dakuku Peterside

    It is not always that an election in one part of the world can function as a mirror in another part of the globe. Societies differ in demographics, political and historical evolution, and the general economic issues that shape elections. The general election in Kenya that took place on Tuesday 9th August is in many ways a mirror of the forthcoming 2023 elections in Nigeria. This mirroring is primarily evident in their shared democratic characteristics, current economic climate, and socio-political milieu.

    Kenya, resemblant of Nigeria, is a former British colony practising multiparty democracy and is multi-ethnic with three dominant ethnic groups vis Kikuyu, Luhya, and Kalenjin. Kenya, like Nigeria, has a young population, with 75% being under 35years. Nigeria and Kenya in their different constitutional provisions require a candidate to obtain 50% plus one vote to win the presidential race, with 25% spread in 24 of 47 Counties. Like our president Buhari, the incumbent president is not a candidate in this election.

    Four significant candidates were Raila Odinga, William Ruto, David Mwaura and George Wajackoya. Two, however, are candidates of the major coalition parties. Like most third-world countries, Kenya faces coordination and network challenges in election management.

    The two countries have similar core issues that will define the election. The presidential campaign in Kenya was centred on three issues of economy, corruption, and unemployment. The only difference with Nigeria will be the addition of how to tackle the menace of insecurity bedevilling our country.

    In most economic indices, Kenya is better than Nigeria. Kenya’s inflation at 7.9% on election month is better than Nigeria’s 18% by June 2022. Public debt is as high as Nigeria’s, and the unemployment rate is spiralling. On the positive side, Kenya is a regional economic giant in East Africa, while Nigeria is a continental giant. Corruption is endemic and deep-rooted in the private and public sectors. These similarities give us the impetus to pay close attention to the Kenyan elections and learn from the outcome.

    Kenyan election brought three fundamental issues for consideration: First, the new increased level of electoral transparency occasioned using technology and the increase in deepening democratic tenets among Africans. Democracy, although young in most African countries, is gradually becoming accepted.

    The new school of thought in Africa favours democracy and assumes that only a few bent on circumventing democracy are the culprits of democratic disorder that often leads to electoral violence and crisis. Elections are not only free and fair than in the past, but most are beginning to accept the results of the polls leading to less violence and more acceptance of the electoral outcomes.

    Second, it is evident that incumbency is no longer an iron ceiling that is almost impossible to break. Incumbent to non-incumbent transition is a sign of maturity of democracy and is anticipated to happen if the incumbent loses many people’s backings. Anybody or party can lose an election if they lose the political patronage of the people. In the past, votes did not count, and election results were manipulated, written, and imposed on the people by the incumbent party or government.

    The third is that Africans are beginning to jettison personality politics and focus more on issues that affect their lives. Insecurity, bad economy, and corruption are quickly becoming the thematic thrust of election campaigns, and the people are getting more likely to vote on their conviction of how candidates will tackle issues plaguing the country than relying on the cult of personality that is more ethnic and religious oriented.

    At the end of the Kenyan elections, three patterns have emerged that are instructive to Nigerian politicians, the election management body (INEC) and the electorate. The first pattern is technology’s positive influence on electoral outcomes. Technology deepens electoral transparency, enhances free and fair elections, and reduces rigging. The root of electoral violence in Africa is the lack of trust by stakeholders in the electoral process. Somaliland was the first to use iris recognition for voter accreditation and followed it up with electronic voting. Somaliland went from a war zone to a respected nation in a credible electoral process.

    On the other hand, Kenya, which witnessed violence in its 2017 elections, deployed technology to add credibility to the electoral processes. It deepened the application of technology in 2022 using a specially designed Kenya Integrated Electronic Management System (KIEMS), and this reduced the 3-prong evil of violence, rigging and result disputation to its minimum. South Africa and Ghana are other African countries that have taken maximum advantage of technology to deliver free, fair, and credible elections with minimal or no disputation of results.

    BVAS, introduced by the electoral commission in Nigeria, like Kenya KIEMS, is an advanced voter identification technology that will be hostile to election riggers, effectively ending the old order. We saw this in recent elections at Anambra, Ekiti and Osun, and nobody challenged the results based on the number in each of those elections. BVAS, according to INEC, promises to deliver elections that reflect the people’s wishes.

    The second pattern is that influence of the incumbent on the electoral outcome is beginning to wane. The use of state resources to influence voters will soon be history. Social media and citizens’ vigilance combine to rub government officials of secrecy to deploy state resources at will. Voters who are sure they can cast their votes in secret will vote according to their conscience. Voters are more informed, enlightened, and ready to defend their votes and voices at all costs.

    They are more active and less fearful of state apparatus wielding power when deployed to influence elections. It is common knowledge that when incumbents deploy considerable resources to influence voters, many collect the financial inducements and yet vote for candidates most qualified to lead. The third pattern is that the quality of electoral laws and rules are beginning to impact on quality and outcome of elections. We saw this with the electoral reforms in Kenya. The electoral laws and regulations are beginning to provide a level playing field for all parties and voters. Power resides with the people and not local oligarchs somewhere.

    Even stakeholders are beginning to buy in on the issue of transparency in elections. It is worthy of note that in the last Kenya elections, the media are becoming unbiased and partisan. For instance, the two leading candidates held simultaneous final rallies in Nairobi, and the police did not interfere. Newspapers, TV, and radios gave balanced and equal coverage to the campaigns. The campaign coverages are a pleasure to watch. To gain support among a disaffected electorate, politicians have had to hinge their campaigns or movement on the country’s pressing economic issues, prompting a shift away from the country’s ethnic and personality-driven politics toward issue-based campaigns.

    Tuesday’s polls were peaceful, with isolated violence cases in the northern region. The corrosive ethnic politics that framed previous electoral contests is ebbing . The critical question in the coming days is not only who won the race but whether the loser will accept defeat. This is a sign of maturity of the political players. It is evident from developments in Kenya that the train of history has left Kikuyu hegemony and dynastic politics.

    Similarly, Nigeria may witness the end of ethnic politics in 2023. The critical issue in Nigeria, as we saw in Kenya, will be who among the candidates can secure the welfare of the majority. Poverty and hunger have no ethnic colouration. So, hunger and poverty are weaponised to push the electorate to vote for candidates that seem in tune with the economic and corruption realities and usher hope and belief in their future.

    Kenya is leading the way in Africa in gender equity in politics and must be emulated by Nigeria and other African countries. According to IFES FAQ on the 2022 Kenyan elections, “Kenya’s legal framework includes firm principles of gender equity. According to the 2010 Constitution, no more than two-thirds of the membership of any elective body in Kenya may be of the same sex. In this respect, the National Assembly reserves forty-seven seats for women and the Senate reserves sixteen for women, with two more Senate seats reserved for women representing youth and persons with disabilities.” Interestingly, three out of the four presidential candidates chose female running mates. Similarly, the country believes in the twinning principle.

    Another exemplary provision in Kenyan electoral law is the out-of-country voting provision. According to IEBC, out-of-country voting is allowed for the presidential election only.
    Kenyan voters outside the country may only vote from twelve countries, chosen based on the number of Kenyans who live there. These voting took place in Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, South Africa, South Sudan, Germany, United Kingdom, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Canada, and the US.

    It is quite unfortunate that despite the enormous contributions of Nigerians in Diaspora to the country’s economy and image laundry, they have no say in determining the political leadership of their homeland except they take the cumbersome option of travelling down to Nigeria to register and later to vote.

    Finally, It can only be hoped that free and fair elections are not seen as ends in themselves. Instead, free and fair elections should produce governments that can end illiteracy, poverty, unemployment and limited enlightenment.

    Only by so doing can democracy improve and entrench itself to become an integral part of the value and cultural reality of tomorrow’s Africa.

    All eyes are now on Angola (August 2022), Chad (September 2022), Lesotho (Oct 2022), Somaliland (Nov 2022), Sudan (December 2022) and Nigeria (Feb 2023) to deliver free, fair, and credible elections, deepen democracy, promote political transformation, increase prosperity and give Africa hope of a bright future. Nigeria must show leadership and use the 2023 election to highlight democratic resilience and deep-rooted principles in the Nigerian democratic culture.

  • Dark clouds over the economy – By Dakuku Peterside

    Dark clouds over the economy – By Dakuku Peterside

    Rome is burning, and Emperor Nero and Roman elites are busy revelling in gladiator rendezvous and despicable hocus-pocus with the empire’s future. The leadership in Nigeria is playing Nero, and the Nigerian elites are side-tracked by the macabre dance of preparing for the next elections. Whilst neglecting the harsh truth that millions of Nigerians’ backs are broken by the harsh tripartite economic realities – hyperinflation, especially food ; massive unemployment; and energy crisis occasioned by the Russian – Ukrainian war in a post-COVID 19 economy. The political class seems indifferent to the crumbling economy and collapsing living standards of Nigerians.

    These days the average Nigerian may be an economic illiterate or may not be interested in economic indicators, but almost all Nigerians know by impact and experience that the economy’s health is in shambles. You do not need to be an economist to know that a loaf of bread you bought for N500 in June sold for N700 by the end of July or that cost of 10kg of cooking gas almost doubled in a space of four months from March to July 2022. Airfare from Abuja to Kano rose from N50,000 economy ticket to about N100,000 between June and July. The average cost of road transport also doubled within the same period. The pattern above is most noticeable in fuel prices, including diesel, prices of food items, transportation, and cost of imported items, no matter how insignificant.

    There is an increase in the cost of goods and services of most commodities in Nigeria whilst wages and income remain stagnant or depreciate. This is made worse by the worsening exchange rate regime. Nigeria is an import-dependent economy . This is made worse by the imported inflation due to the high price of goods and services abroad because of the worsening global economic crises. When the prices of goods increase abroad, importing those goods means importing the inflation attached to the goods. Combined with the rapid fall in the value of the Naira against major world currencies in the unofficial market (Dollar exchanged for almost N720 to $1).

    Economists amongst us try to explain the situation using critical economic data, mainly from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Recent statistics will make any Nigerian have a sober reflection on the fate of this country , though the full effect of this is yet to play out. Spiralling inflation stands at 18.6% in June 2022 on a year-on-year basis, and on a month-on-month basis, the inflation rate increased by 1.82% in June 2022, higher than the rate recorded in May 2022.

    The composite food index on a year-on-year basis rose to 20.60% in June 2022. The food sub-index increased by 2.05% on a month-on- month basis in June 2022. Nigeria’s inflation has been running wild since the beginning of the year, rising from 15.6 per cent in January to the current rate of 18.6 per cent in June. In a similar pattern, the food inflation rate, which is a catalyst of the ballooning inflation, increased to 20.6 per cent in June against 17.13 per cent recorded in
    January. The outloook sends signal of a dark cloud.

    Ordinary Nigerians are losing confidence in the ability of the managers of our economy to arrest and reverse this trend. From the prism of the man on the street, it appears that our economic ruin is inevitable. The highest inflationary spikes are in prices of food items, petrol, cooking gas, clothing, passenger transport by road and by air.

    After months of caution, the CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the interest rate benchmark by 100 basis points (1%) in their last two consecutive meetings to fight this inflation. Theoretically, this should slow down inflation and improve the economic situation. However, the opposite is the case – the higher the Monetary Policy Rate, the higher the inflation. The reasons for this may be, first, too much money in the system due to Covid 19 financial interventions by the government. The second is imported inflation which is not affected by MPR. The third is the further depreciation of the Naira, and finally, the survivalist instinct of businesses to mark up costs and pass to consumers who bear the brunt of the increase in prices. The last but probably the biggest culprit is uncontrolled government
    borrowing mostly by ways and means at the behest of the CBN, a euphemism for printing of money.

    This situation is not helped by dwindling government revenue because of insecurity and Nigeria’s inability to maximise the production and sale of crude oil during this high price regime in the international market. Our low productivity meant that government did not get much revenue from taxes, duties, and levies from economic activities. Our revenue to debt service ratio is about 120%, and Nigeria owes over $100 billion, almost a quarter of our Gross Domestic Product. The private sector is struggling because of a lack of enabling environment to operate. Insecurity has crippled economic activities in most parts of the country, and lives and properties have been lost to incessant attacks by terrorists, bandits,
    criminals, secessionists, and agitators.

    Given this gloomy picture of the economic road ahead that we are most likely to travel through as a nation, what are our options? Our government must act decisively with speed, clarity, transparency, and innovation. Traditional thinking cannot help us in this situation .The government should wake up and aggressively pursue economic policies and actions that will improve the situation. This is not time to point accusing fingers. Any fair-minded person will admit that it is not entirely the government’s fault that these economic woes befall us. However, it must also be said that the government has not shown capacity and will to tame the situation.

    This situation results from accumulated financial mismanagement and policy misdirection of past administrations, including this one. But one must recognise the devastating impact of COVID 19 on our economy and the unpredictable international economic climate that is volatile and affected by conflicts such as the ongoing Russian – Ukrainian war and the energy crisis that ensued. Having acknowledged this, I must point out that these facts do not exonerate the current government from taking absolute responsibility to tackle the situation, no matter the root causes.

    Therefore, I recommend that the government put out remedial policies and actions to mitigate the painful consequences of the economic hardship on many Nigerians. Over one hundred million Nigerians are living below the poverty line. Imagine how they are coping with this harsh inflationary economic trend. What of people with fixed incomes with families and other responsibilities? How are they dealing with constantly erasing the net value of their fixed income due to ravaging inflation? Little wonder the organised labour is agitating for better pay and working conditions.

    At this point, the government must, as a matter of urgency, attack the problem with a four-pronged approach: First, the government must devise how to protect the poorest of the poor amongst us using policy instruments. If the government fails to do this, it may encourage an upward crime swing. Second, the government must be decisive in managing the pump price of petroleum products and prioritise domestic gas supply to the local market. Most inflation today is linked to a rise in the cost of crude oil, which translates to an increase in the price of petroleum products.

    Third, although the government, through the Central Bank of Nigeria, has done a lot to boost local food production, it must go further to invest in the processing, storage and distribution of food and help farmers and other businesses create more value across the value chain spectrum. Fourth, CBN as a significant stakeholder, must continue to use monetary policies in conjunction with fiscal policies of the federal government to stabilise the economy.

    The depreciation of the Naira has continued to directly or indirectly affect most families in Nigeria owing to the import dependent nature of the economy.

    The unregulated activities of “black market“ for foreign exchange portend great danger to our import-dependent economy unless CBN and the federal government step in to control the situation. Unfortunately, the average Nigerian regards the black- market rate of Dollar to Naira as the de facto market rate and when the traders in this market determine the exchange rate, it is dangerous to our collective economic interest.

    In this period of elections campaigning, it behoves Nigerians to hold the presidential hopefuls accountable and examine their abilities and capacities to bring Nigeria out of this economic quagmire. Any populist promises by our presidential candidates to revive the economy, create jobs, and put us back on the path of growth must be interrogated by voters. Without the finer details and mechanics of how it can and should be done, it should be taken for what it is, wishful thinking, and discarded accordingly. The era of economic guesses is over.

    The presidential hopefuls must tell Nigerians specifics about how they intend to rescue Nigeria and Nigerians from soaring energy costs, rising food prices, ballooning debt profile, declining revenue and cutting the cost of governance. Nigerians have been taken for granted enough. Let 2023 be a watershed of economic change. We must get it right this time and do not have an option. The government and the political elites must quit playing Nero and start working hard to salvage our “burning Rome”.