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Tag: Dakuku Peterside

  • Now that Abuja is under a siege – By Dakuku Peterside

    Now that Abuja is under a siege – By Dakuku Peterside

    Once upon a time, Abuja, Nigeria’s federal capital, was a serene and sprawling city that accommodated persons of all faith, social strata, and economic pursuits. Abuja, to the elite, offered an escape from insecurity, hustling, and bustling that plagued other major cities in the county. It was a city in which most elite wanted to own a property, raise a family, or even retire in old age.

    The city was a haven for the professional middle class linked to the public sector. It was a city of hope to the many poor people who migrated to its surburbs with the dream of advancement.
    Abuja , a prototype of future cities in Nigeria. It was founded on the vision of a centralised  symbol of our national unity . But the era of Abuja being a fortress of peace and tranquillity seems to belong to history.

    Now, Abuja is fast becoming the epicentre of terrorist activities that have literarily and metaphorically held the country captive. Abuja is technically under a siege. Recently, the barrage of attacks on this city has left everyone perplexed. The more these attacks unfold, the more it has becomes clear that they are well-orchestrated and coordinated.

    The assault of bandits and terrorists has gradually focused on symbols of power and national monuments. It is either attack on trains linking the nation’s capital, the targeting and killing of military personnel in various parts of the city, or attack on Kuje correctional centre, or an attack on the presidential guard brigade – the last line of defence of the President. These terrorists are even emboldened to issue a threat to kidnap the President.

    Residents of Abuja, like other Nigerians, live in morbid fear of insecurity, and most have doubts about their peaceful existence in a city that is gradually becoming a ghost of itself.

    Things got a bit more complicated after 800 inmates, among them 60 Boko Haram members,were freed in the Kuje jailbreak. The war front of terrorist activities has moved from the Northeast to the Northwest, parts of North Central, and now Abuja. Recently, the President has called a high-stake security meeting to tackle insecurity in Abuja and other parts of Nigeria that have faced the brunt of bandits and terrorist attacks. The Inspector General of Police has belatedly raised intelligence gathering efforts and ordered the strategic deployment of security assets across the city.

    The Nigerian military is promising to take the war to these terrorists and bandits in their camping areas in neighbouring states near Abuja. These assurances and statements are recurring decimals and soundbites each time these criminals attack. The government assures residents of safety after every incident without a corresponding improvement in the security of the people.Abuja residents, like the Nigerian populace, have lost confidence in the nation’s security architecture and apparatus . Worse still, nobody is accepting responsibility nor facing the law. Residents are reaching the point of taking their safety and security into their own hands since they have lost trust in the security arrangement by the government.

    Abuja is rightly a metaphor for the situation in the whole of Nigeria today. Nobody envisaged that Abuja would ever come under a siege, so there are no connected satellite cities to absorb refugees in such eventuality.

    The heightened sense of siege is even more evident, given that road transport in and out of Abuja from a nearby state is fraught with danger. The Kaduna-Abuja express road is a den of kidnappers and bandits, while other major roads linking Nasarawa and Niger States to Abuja are unsafe. After terrorists attacked the Abuja-Kaduna train line, travel options for the elite and middle class  have been further depleted. With increasing attacks ever closer to the airport even air travel doesn’t appear so safe anymore.

    Further evidence of Abuja being under a siege is apparent in the security measures put in place by both government and non- governmental agencies. Abuja increasingly has more checkpoints with armed police and military men littering everywhere. There is a pervading sense of impending doom in the collective psyche of residents, and individuals are more security conscious than usual. The government has shut down schools within the Abuja Metropolis and has beefed up security at other soft targets.

    The increased attacks on Abuja is reminiscent of the strategy adopted by other ISWAP insurgents and bandits in other parts of Africa and Afghanistan. We should remember that the Taliban started attacking the Afghanistan’s fringes and rural areas. Next, they attacked Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, intending to take over control of state power. This strategy was like their approach in nearby African countries like Mali, Chad, and Guinea.

    The terrorists or ISWAP start by attacking villages and cities near the capital and capturing them. After that, they will begin destroying military facilities and other symbols of power in and outside the capital. Then they will mount an all-out attack to seize the government.

    We hope Nigeria is not heading to be the next Afghanistan. Therefore, we must defend Abuja and ensure that we do not fall prey to these non-state actors with a sinister motive. A pertinent rhetorical question is why are these terrorists fixated on attacking the President, the best representation of power, government, and democracy? They are sending a clear message that they are bold enough to challenge Nigeria’s very essence of raw power. If Abuja peace, safety and security are compromised , it’s meaning and symbolism of national unity will evaporate.

    There are narratives and counter-narratives as to why the Nigerian military does not wipe these people out. Some reports highlight the possibility of collusion with some elements in the military that give them information and protect them because they are sympathetic to their course. This narrative gets credence when reports indicate the security operatives got credible intelligence of some of these attacks, yet the intelligence was neglected. For example, DSS raised 44 official reports signalling a possible attack on Kuje Correctional Facility, but the security operatives could not forestall the attack.
    Some conspiracy theories border on a belief that there is an unwritten agreement to allow these people to take over the government of Nigeria for whatever purpose . This conspiracy is gathering momentum given that the security operatives know the hiding places of terrorists and bandits but seem to have been dealing with them lightly.

    People cannot understand how the Nigerian professional Army cannot defeat this rag, untrained, criminal bunch running around killing and maiming Nigerians. It begs the question of why Nigeria, with all the resources it has dedicated to security in the past ten years, have not made any considerable progress in eradicating insecurity; instead, insecurity increases at an alarming rate.

    In the last week, the Federal Capital Territory Administration (FCTA) has re-invigorated the ‘G7″ security operations to secure the territory. The ‘G7’ security operations involve collaboration and partnerships with states contiguous to the FCT area. The procedure would include taking the fight to the bandits and terrorists in their camps, primarily in states bordering the FCT. The extent to which this effort will allay the fears of residents of Abuja is yet to be seen. However, it is time to develop a more permanent solution to this insecurity problem.

    An essential aspect of proffering a permanent solution to insecurity in Abuja and the country is to look at the socio-economic, religious, and political dimensions of the issues. This strategy will help us identify the root cause of insecurity and the steps we must take to tackle the problem from the root causes.

    Combining heightened insecurity with the free fall of the Nigerian economy is a recipe for disaster. Nigeria is facing an economic siege that has devastating effects on its citizens. There seems to be hopelessness in the land, and nobody is optimistic about fixing insecurity and the economy. The government seemed perplexed. Some in the Senate are clamouring for an Impeachment of the President if he cannot deal with insecurity in the next six weeks. Whatever becomes of this ultimatum is yet to play out for now. However, I can boldly predict that it will go like similar ultimatums in the past without any serious bite or consequence.

    Every day new security threats dampen the hope of ordinary citizens. The capacity of the state to enforce law, order and security keeps shrinking, and nobody seems concerned. Electioneering campaigns will soon dominate our public space, and Nigerians will be fed with various promises on how each party or candidate will tackle insecurity and the economy.

    It is time to analyse every solution proffered critically, and the voters must vote based on their consciences and their conviction of the candidate that will solve these problems. We cannot survive as a nation if things continue like this. All well-meaning Nigerians must wake up and “smell the coffee” regardless of ethnic group, religion, or creed.

    We must act now or never! We must avoid the pitfalls of Mali and Afghanistan We must never allow our country to be in the hands of warlords like in Sudan. A stitch in time saves nine.

  • Road to anarchy: ASUU, labour and solidarity protest – By Dakuku Peterside

    Road to anarchy: ASUU, labour and solidarity protest – By Dakuku Peterside

    Barring any last-minute change of mind, Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) will, this week, embark on a nationwide protest in solidarity with the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) which has been on strike for more than six months forcing students to stay at home endlessly. The planned protest by the mother of all labour unions is to put pressure on the government to resolve ASUU demands to enable our students return to school.

    At face value, this is a sensible thing to do. The intended consequences seem noble, but we all know that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Often, no one can control the outcome of events like this, and it easily dovetails into mayhem and anarchy. No matter the claim by NLC that it will control the protest and not allow it to be hijacked by hoodlums and miscreants, it is evident that it does not have what it takes to exercise such control, especially given the current socio- political and economic climate that Nigeria is facing.

    As a lover of democracy, I often support the democratic right of citizens to peaceful protest and any means of lawfully compelling the government to pay attention to issues of public interest and importance, and in this instance , education . However, in this case, I advise caution. These times and seasons are not conducive for such disruptive mass action because of the unintended consequences.

    First, this is an election season, and politicians love manipulating circumstances to achieve ignoble advantages. Any protest now may be hijacked by politicians to score cheap and needless political points.. Oftentimes, issues unrelated to the primary reason for the protest in the first place may take centre stage. A protest by NLC may be used as a platform to cause insurrection and attempt to destabilise the polity and cause confusion everywhere.

    Second, this planned protest is coming at a time of dire economic straits, with inflation hitting the roof tops, cost of diesel and petrol beyond the reach of many, collapsing social services, and
    foreign exchange scarcity. The implication is that the average Nigerian is under economic pressure, feels angry and frustrated . Mass action could add to the economic pressure families face and provide building block for unanticipated effect .

    And third, the Nigerian social milieu of heightened uncertainty and insecurity is not a conducive ecosystem for volatile protests and possible demonstrations because of the propensity for people to circumvent it for perverse objectives.

    Besides, there is sufficient evidence that when labour union protests are not managed properly to achieve the desired objective, it could spiral off to violence that can lead to radical change or anarchy. These were the cases in Italy (1920), Venezuela ( 1997), Lebanon (2020) and most recently, Sri Lanka (2022). In all these cases, situations such as the collapse of the currency, soaring inflation, and spiralling unemployment provided the fertile ground for protests by labour movements. These protests became the catalyst for unprecedented controversy and public disorder with severe national consequences in all cases. These exact situations are prevalent in Nigeria today and are getting worse by the day. These situations may provide the fuel to burn the country down, and the NLC planned protest might offer the fire for the inferno that may consume our social and political space.

    Whereas NLC intention to use the protest to draw all parties attention to the prolonged strike is germane , I have a patriotic duty to call on labour to reconsider the plan for this protest at this inauspicious moment. NLC must look at the big picture and act in the national interest. It behoves NLC to know that it will be directly and precariously liable if the protest leads to anarchy. There are better ways to show solidarity with ASUU to achieve a better result than just protesting. NLC must liaise with ASUU and mediate between it and the government on this issue, considering the historical antecedents behind this crisis.

    ASUU has been on strike for over six months, and there seems to be no end in sight of the action. ASUU is demanding that the government fulfils the agreement it entered into in the past, increase lecturers’ salaries and provide better funding for higher education in Nigeria. These demands aim to improve the quality of education and quality of living of university lecturers. These are legitimate demands, however one looks at it.

    Historically, ASUU is synonymous with strike actions in Nigeria, and for decades they have been making demands, entering into agreements with the government which the government reneges on frequently leading to industrial actions. This has been a recurring decimal in our higher institutions for over four decades, and it has defied all governments and does not seem to be exacerbating soon. ASUU -government brouhaha is endangering the future of our youths, who either have their education truncated with the concomitant effect of producing half-baked graduates or the students spending more time than necessary to complete their degrees.
    Everyone becomes a loser in this disagreement, and the nation suffers. In this disagreement, it is crucial that ASUU comes to the table with an open mind, ready to take any cause of action that will make all parties winners in the pursuit for quality education .

    ASUU must see the reality of our economic circumstances – the government is struggling to pay salaries, and we literarily borrow to finance government activities. Our revenue to debt service ratio has moved from 95% to 116%. The implicationis that all our income is not enough to service our debt. Crude oil theft has reached an embarrassing crescendo, and the government is spending billions of dollars yearly to fight insurgency, bandits, terrorists, and secessionists all over the country. The global crisis post-COVID 19 pandemic and the debilitating effects of the Russian – Ukraine war have created energy and food crises worldwide. There is also the counter narrative that a government that spends about N42b yearly to maintain the several aircrafts in the presidential fleet , spends 70 percent of its budget on recurrent expenditure and allows wastage in the management of the economy cannot in good conscience say
    it cannot not fund education . I can rightly paraphrase John F Kennedy to put this in proper perspective , “ if the pursuit of learning is not defended by the educated citizens ( leaders), it will not be defended by all “ .

    ASUU , as a body of researchers , must come to the table with a bouquet of innovative ideas on university funding that will rely less on government, student fees payment models, university-industry alliances, private sector-driven convergence and university entrepreneurship to boost the funding of our tertiary institutions. There have been calls for complete university autonomy to create a competitive university education market that may provide the funds for quality education. ASUU can advocate for a joint government and university student loan arrangement that may give a lasting solution to Nigeria’s university funding issues. Academics are great researchers, and I firmly believe that it behoves on them to come up with the best formula for solving university funding crises that will permanently eliminate ASUU strikes.

    The government, on the other hand, must show more seriousness and sincerity in negotiation with ASUU. Nigerians are fed up with the macabre dance, and many feel that government must do more to break the impasse. Government expenditure profile does not reflect the fact that it prioritises education and by extension the future of Nigerian youths. All sides in this dispute must be ready to shift positions based on current realities. They must find a win-win solution to resolve ASUU-government logjam as quickly as possible. It will be shameful if our students lose one academic year due to this strike. The government should remember that governance is a continuum and must not enter into agreements that it does not have any intentions of keeping immediately or in the future.
    The government must work with ASUU to devise a lasting solution to the problems. It is unacceptable and irresponsible for government to enter into agreements only to renege on them . The government should study how universities are funded and how academics are rewarded in other countries and learn from that. Lecturers are bona fide members of the community and spend and buy things from the same markets as others. They are entitled to a living wage and all the perks of their office. ASUU and the government must draw a line on this issue and do a quid pro quo that is mutually beneficial.

    Now is the time for all stakeholders in the education sector to rally round to save our higher education sector from collapse. We must solve the problem of strike actions once and for all if we use this opportunity to be creatively innovative in dealing with university funding. The world is moving fast, and it seems we are getting left behind. Instead of discussing the ASUU strike, we should look at how to develop the quality of our higher education to international standards.
    We must develop our universities to compete locally and globally. It is time to educate our youths, who are the hope of tomorrow, to be more productive and proactive. There is nothing better than quality education as a propeller for growth and development. Our tomorrow lies in what we do today to correct all the anomalies with
    our educational system. Let us make hay while the sun shines.

    NLC must reconsider its plans to protest in the next few days, and acknowledge the fact that we are in a precarious situation . Nearly every little act of disruptive mass action can produce unintended and adverse consequences.

  • Osun and 2023 elections: Hope rising – By Dakuku Peterside

    Osun and 2023 elections: Hope rising – By Dakuku Peterside

    As we await the festival of elections in 2023, a few polls this year are increasingly signposting the nature and manner of the general elections. The last of these off-season state elections (Anambra, Ekiti and Osun) took place last Saturday – the Osun State gubernatorial election. The conduct and outcome of last Saturday’s election in Osun offer significant lessons for 2023.

    Some may think otherwise, but we differ. The Yorubas of South-west are arguably Nigeria’s most politically sophisticated nationality. They often define their interest per election and vote for it. The Osun election provides a barometer to gauge the political mood and appetite of the electorate for drastic socio-political change in the country. Osun could well be the microcosm of the macro dynamism of the Nigerian political space.

    Some are focused on the candidates and the various party platforms , while others are concerned about the increasing influence of the “third force”, represented by Labour and the Accord parties. Others are concerned about the impact of intra-party feud, the potency of incumbency, and so on.
    Yet, others are keenly following how outcomes may be affected by the role of institutions such as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), security agencies, the media and of course, independent election monitors and NGOs.
    On the use and deployment of technology, for example, there was a radical improvement in the deployment of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) across the wards for the election. Though there were a few mechanical impediments, the BVAS significantly improved voter accreditation time and an atmosphere of peace around voting areas.
    This, is in addition to the enormous turnout, sent a strong message that our voters are imbibing democratic culture.

    One human element that has been the bane of Nigeria’s elections is rigging. The deployment of BVAS technology and electronic transmission of election results coupled with the eagle-eye vigilance of voters to ensure their vote counts have made election rigging a bit more complicated than in the past. The era of politicians sitting at home and writing election results irrespective of actual election results in the field is seemingly over.

    However, vote buying is one aspect of rigging that has reared its ugly head in all the off-season elections. Osun politicians were more innovative in vote-buying than their Ekiti counterparts. Perhaps the presence of anti-corruption agencies may have reduced vote buying from the bazaar it was in Ekiti to a modest level in Osun. It is alleged that political agents from both APC and PDP bought votes at prices ranging from N2000 to N10,000 per vote. It is good that the security agents arrested some culprits, and it is essential to prosecute these criminals and make a scapegoat of them.

    The victory of the opposition party, on the eve of next year’s general election, is an indicator of the complex nature of the electorate, greater awareness of the average Nigerian voter and the changing dynamics of election management influenced mainly by the use of technology and social media. A review of some of the core lessons from this election suffices.

    First, the effective use of technology in the election process has mitigated some human factors that create unnecessary bottlenecks in our elections. BVAS technology worked efficiently in accrediting voters, and the electronic transfer of results helped INEC start on time to upload the election results in real-time. Nigerians are happy that the malfunctioning rate of the technology was insignificant and hardly impeded the election process. This efficient use of technology in the Osun election shows that INEC means business. If it works in Osun, it should work in other parts of Nigeria.
    The second lesson is that rigging is becoming unpopular and may gradually belong to history in Nigerian elections. In all, it is self evident that the vote counts in today’s Nigeria. The call for voters to get their PVCs is germane, and people would be more inclined to vote now, knowing that their choices matter.
    We hope that this will make leaders produced from this process to be accountable to the electorate. This marks the beginning of true democracy in Nigeria – the supremacy and power of the people through balloting.

    However, the progress made in tackling rigging may be undermined by the politics of financial inducement. This anomaly seemed stubbornly present even in Osun elections, and we must urgently do something to halt it radically. We must eliminate the market of votes.
    Democracy is not for sale, and people should never be encouraged to sacrifice their future on a platter of paltry N2000-N10,000. Voters should vote based on their convictions and understanding of the qualities of the leaders they want. Although , the counter narrative is that there is no guarantee that voters who collected money voted in a particular pattern. Proper secret balloting in a safe and secure environment takes away that luxury and gives the voter the opportunity to act according to his/her conscience .

    The third lesson is that social media is essential, but the on-the-ground mobilisation of voters is still the main battlefront in politics. Social media ‘likes’ and positive commentaries will not replace actual participation by voting. All the people on social media canvassing for a candidate of their choice must “walk the talk”. They should start by getting their PVCs, mobilising people in their network to get PVCs and vote during the election proper.
    We cannot also underestimate the power of political structure. The weak structures of Labour Party and Accord Party may have contributed to their poor performance although there is also the counter-narrative that if the election was about structures alone, the APC would not have lost.
    Yet, fringe parties must develop and deploy political structures, networks, and systems to challenge the big two. This may take some time to yield the expected result. Social media is an operational platform to educate, engage and mobilise your followers to champion the party’s ideology and the candidates’ qualities and skills to the mass electorate.
    Social media as a tool for mass mobilisation is their most potent and powerful usage for political purposes. Converting social media users to voters is where the job is. Therefore, new, and small parties must be careful not to properly confuse the two – social media engagement and voting exercise. The outcome of Osun election should not discourage non mainstream parties from pushing for a new order .

    The fourth lesson is that when all institutions work effectively in delivering a free and fair election, it makes for a peaceful election with no rancour and mayhem. States with flashpoints of electoral violence must study Osun elections, putting it in local context and milieu, and putting together a plan to eradicate electoral violence from our political lexicon.

    As Nigeria’s voice and call for political and socio-economic change are reaching a crescendo, the battle line is drawn between the new kids on the political block and the oldies that have been maintaining the orthodoxy. The youths seem to be drawn to the new and fanciful political reality led by some of them to overhaul and completely take over politics as leaders of today and tomorrow.
    Most of the older ones are sceptical of the “new songs of freedom” sung by these youths. They have been around enough to know that reality differs from the utopia nature of mass political movements that want to change existing political platforms and power structures.

    Notwithstanding this raging conflict, and we are poised to see more of it in the coming days leading up to the 2023 general elections, we are sure that the elections next year could be the “Mother of all elections” in Nigeria. If technology and human factors allow for a free and fair election as exemplified by Osun election, it would be hope rising for democracy and dream of a better country. We must get it right come 2023.

  • Harvest of terror at the centre of power – By Dakuku Peterside

    Harvest of terror at the centre of power – By Dakuku Peterside

    That terrorists and bandits are getting bolder, more daring, and more sophisticated is not debatable. After a period of relative peace, the nation, has entered a new phase of terrorist attacks that frontally challenges state power . It needs no further evidence after last Wednesday’s Kuje Correctional Facility attack. That the nation is in a state of war is no more contentious when non- state actors target, with utmost audacity and recklessness, the convoy of our President (the commander in chief of the armed forces) to disrupt our chain of command and control.

    These two events happening a few days apart speak volumes about our foes’ intent and coordination. The choreographed attacks are evidence of the sophistication and astuteness of the terrorists in challenging our power structures with no regard or respect for the sanctity of symbols of power – the presidency and prisons. These are a determined group of terrorists and not opportunistic bandits.

    This latest upsurge of terrorist attacks and banditry is symbolic of the failure of intelligence, aversion to planning, compromise of law enforcement, and lack of operational capacity of security and law enforcement apparatus. It is indicative of the rot in the system that must be dealt with decisively for our collective good. The success rate of these attacks is becoming alarming. The ability of bandits and terrorists to graduate from attacking soft targets to boldly and ambitiously attacking symbols of state power speaks volumes about their shifting of modus operandi.

    Previously, they were busy capturing, maiming, and killing villagers at the remote boundaries and ungoverned spaces without border controls. Now, they boldly attack trains and airports in Kaduna, shoot at planes with land-to-surface missiles, attack military barracks and kill soldiers at will, attack a correctional centre at the centre of power ,and attack the President’s convoy with temerity.

    This recent attack marks an epoch in Nigeria’s struggle for its heart and soul. Where we go from here is significant and must shape our collective future. How we match this shifting paradigm by bandits and terrorists will define our collective future. The audacity with which terrorists and bandits challenge the state’s authority and the ordinary functioning of its coercive apparatus is unimaginable. This disaster is a symptom of danger looming around, which we must collectively tackle in a nonpartisan, multidimensional manner devoid of any sentiments.

    Last week’s unusual security breaches highlighted how exposed and vulnerable we are. Enough is enough. A feeling of insecurity in the country is now pervasive. And the high and low in the country are victims of their shadows. As it is now, terrorism and banditry are winning. Both have altered our way of life and are pushing us to the edges where people resort to self-help to protect themselves and their loved ones.

    Travelling to some parts of the country by road is usually risky and going to churches and mosques is dangerous and a suicide mission in some areas. Going to the farm is a sure trip to yonder for some farmers in some parts of Nigeria. Living in Nigeria has become an existential crisis, and we are still treating the situation with nonchalance. Everyday activities, existence, and survival have become a mirage for some Nigerians, and there appears to be no hope.

    Combining insecurity of these sorts with the crushing economic hardship in Nigeria occasioned by both local and international factors is devastating. Most Nigerians have never got it this bad, and never have we felt so insecure and uncertain of our future as today. Imagine how residents of Abuja would be feeling now. It is unbelievable that terrorists could lay siege and destroy Kuje prison in an operation that lasted almost 3 hours without a corresponding repelling force from our security operatives. What would be the fate of residents had these terrorists and bandits decided to operate in estates or residential areas of the metropolis? We cannot even imagine the carnage. This is the reality of the Nigeria of today.

    The breach of National Security Act 1990, as amended, seen in this week’s events, requires an effective response from the government, security ecosystem, and citizens of Nigeria. The details of the incidents are still unfolding, but existing reports are heartrending and disturbing. The attack on Kuje Medium Security Custodial Centre of the Nigerian Correctional Service (NCS); was a development that left at least 879 inmates fleeing from custody. Besides, at least five persons died when attacked by terrorists, numbering over two hundred on motorcycles , who did not only bomb the Kuje Medium Security Custodial Centre in Abuja but also threw the facility open for inmates, including incarcerated terrorists, to flee .

    Among the injured casualties of the attack was an officer of the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) attached to the facility, and three personnel of the Nigerian Correctional Service. At the same time, terrorists killed four inmates said to have attempted an escape. Meanwhile, as shock and apprehension trail the attack, the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) has owned up to the attack, claiming responsibility for same.

    It is disturbing that attacks on prisons by terrorists and bandits have been increasing in recent times. The security at the Kuje Correctional Centre was found wanting and caught unawares, which is lamentable. The recurring attempts and attacks are enough signals to intimate the government to beef up security across the Correctional facilities in the country. The fact that terrorists took the attack to the capital city within the central government’s jurisdiction of authority is a spit on its face.

    The second incident is even more daring. First, news broke that the ubiquitous ‘bandits,’ by design or by accident, had laid siege into an advance convoy of the President. The convoy was travelling to the President’s village to lay the groundwork for him to spend Salah in Daura, his hometown . The bandits opened fire, and the President’s men returned fire and defended the convoy. Some personnel were injured, and others died. I sympathise with the victims and families of both incidents.

    The symbolism of these attacks is obvious to contemplate. First, these criminals can attack anywhere and anytime they choose and are brazenly audacious. Besides, no one is off-limits to them. By attacking the number one citizen’s convoy, they have sent a clear message they can strike anyone.

    Furthermore, they have declared conventional war on Nigeria using asymmetrical methods. This is guerrilla warfare, for want of words to describe it. And they have struck terror in our collective consciousness. If they can reach the Kuje Correctional facility and the convoy of the President, they can get anyone. The gradual boldness and audacity signal a shift in approach that requires a corresponding response. Finally, they have raped the sense of security of Nigerians and created a perversive cloak of insecurity in cities and remote villages in Nigeria.

    There is a need to create counter symbolism and narrative to reduce the impact of these symbols and bolster our collective psyche to confront, obstruct and defeat terrorism and banditry in all their ramifications. These new symbolisms must be created from the actions and reactions of the government and security community to confront existing terror-inspired symbols that dominate our consciousness.

    The onus lies on the government to protect citizens’ lives and property and create an atmosphere of tranquillity and security in the country. The lessons of the Kuje terror attack and bandits’ attack on the presidential convoy are glaring for all to see. We must stop treating insecurity with sentimentality and as business as usual. The hydra-headed monster breeding may consume us all if we do nothing now. This is “a swim or drown situation”, and Nigeria has no choice but to swim at all costs.

    Beyond the collective shame, the sensations that these attacks throw up go beyond mass hysteria and feelings of insecurity but also bear instigating substances to further embolden terrorists and bandits in Nigeria. We are now amidst the turbulence of insecurity and mayhem, demanding nothing but the full attention of the government. Such a response requires a radical security strategy and emergency operations to deform Nigeria’s insecurity and terror networks. The threats before us have grown beyond maintaining a docile posture. Government and security agents must rise from slumber and become vehemently driven by concerted firmness to clamp down on security threats.

    There seems to have been no severe consequences for bandits and terrorists’ minor transgressions, so they have graduated to major ones. Civilians’ homes, police officers’ stations, and soldiers’ bases were all attacked without clear consequences for the attackers. The rhetoric should go beyond repelling theattacks to preventing such attacks. government and security architecture celebrate repelling attacks on presidential convoys, prisons, and military bases. What would ordinary Nigerians who have no protection do or celebrate when attacked?
    It now sounds pusillanimous to the hearing of tired and frightened Nigerians when the government and its security agencies talk about gallantry in repelling terror and bandit attacks. Nigerians want permanent solutions to prevent and end attacks on the Nigerian state and its citizens.

    With fear in the air and a sense of hopelessness in dealing with insecurity, calls are coming from usual places, especially among governors asking for a license to arm citizens to defend themselves. As unbelievable as this sounds, it is a call for survival and a testament to the fact that people are beginning to lose faith in the government to tackle insecurity. A vigilante-style protection system may emerge from the seeming collapse of security when it becomes a Hobbesian natural state of every man to himself, and life becomes “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short” because individuals are in a “war of all against all”. We must avoid this state because Nigeria cannot afford to fail, and it will be too expensive.

  • Security and the 2023 campaigns – By Dakuku Peterside

    Security and the 2023 campaigns – By Dakuku Peterside

    Security, economy, and corruption were the most outstanding issues in the 2015 and 2019 elections. Of the triune matters, security has already placed itself as the most contemporary issue of any credible campaign in 2022-23. Increased insurgency in the days ahead will make it more relevant and urgent. Unfortunately, Nigerians did not pay attention to what the presidential candidates were saying or glossed over it in the 2015 and 2019 elections. Candidates paid lip service to insecurity, and the rhetoric was jaundiced promises of “fighting insecurity from the frontline”, which meant nothing as a security strategy. The result is that in the past seven years, insecurity has continued to be the bane of Nigeria. The situation has become hopeless because it has defied all government actions to at least ameliorate it, not to talk of completely eradicating it.

    We are at the same place again on the eve of a general election, and this time we expect candidates will provide comprehensive strategies for tackling insecurity to the electorate during the campaign to allow the people make an informed decision on whom to vote for based on their acceptance of a candidate’s security strategy that he will implement when elected. This will assuage the people’s concerns and give them hope for the future.

    For many reasons, addressing our internal security challenges should be the thematic thrust of our presidential campaign. It is evident that 2023 campaign is about how severe internal insecurity is threatening the existence of the nation. Insecurity has ripple effects on our economy, starting from agriculture to manufacturing. Despite heavy investment by CBN in agriculture in the past seven years, agricultural productivity has been suboptimal, going by statistics.Besides, the massive destruction of lives and properties has created an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty. No severe and productive activity can flourish in such an environment. Foreign Direct investment has dropped or stagnated in the period under review as we continue to trail behind South Africa and Egypt despite being Africa’s biggest economy. Lack of investment in productive industries has widened the gulf in youth unemployment, which has aggravated social vices.

    As part of the media’s role in the forthcoming election campaign in Nigeria, they must challenge the candidates to present their plans for dealing with insecurity to the electorate. It is a public service that the traditional and online media must critically evaluate these plans and strategies by the candidates and educate the public on them to enable the electorate know what each candidate has to offer in tackling insecurity. They must organise dialogues, fora, and debates focusing on security where the candidates would come forward with detailed, innovative, and practical ideas and solutions to the insecurity problems.

    The media must provide a level playing field and open fora for disseminating campaign information on how each candidate will tackle insecurity without bias toward any of the candidates based on political affiliations, ideology, and patrimony. The media’s primary function is to educate the public and help shape public opinion. I suggest all media houses devote the necessary attention to covering presidential campaign issues on insecurity without discrimination. The issue of insecurity is central to the upcoming campaigns because you cannot have democracy without either free citizens or a secure sovereign national space.

    The APC presidential candidate must go to work and develop novel and practical solutions to the issue of insecurity, as he faces the danger of being viewed from the prism of party platform . This is because it is under the watch of the ruling party that insurgency has risen to alarming heights in the recent times. Nigerians would rightly deserve to know what the candidate will do differently. . This cannot be time for business as usual. The electorate needs more from any APC government, and the presidential candidate must convince them to trust him to tackle insecurity. Although it may be a hard sell, I am convinced that a good and innovative security strategy, with the passion and conviction of the presidential candidate, will go a long way to get the buy-in of the electorate.

    On the other hand, the PDP candidate needs a new narrative beyond the typical rhetoric on tackling security crises without any tangible and practical solution. PDP security strategy needs to be germane to the changing context of Nigeria’s deplorable security crises. This strategy may be a hard sell, too, because PDP has its fair share of failings in tackling insecurity at the initial stages, allowing it to get out of hand during its time in power.

    The new political forces led by Peter Obi of Labour Party and , Rabiu Kwankwaso of NNPP and other candidates of other parties have their jobs cut out because these presidential candidates have the advantage of coming to Nigerian electorate with new thinking and of not carrying the baggage of failure in tackling insecurity unlike APC and PDP . Their security strategy, if fresh , deep and well articulated, may enjoy the acceptance of mostly youths who are ready to try new things and experiment with their future.

    Some pertinent questions suffice: What essential elements of insecurity must presidential candidates articulate and expose to the electorate about tackling the problem in Nigeria under their presidency? What “ingredients” should the insecurity solution “soup” have? What contextual underpinnings must he consider when dealing with Nigeria’s insecurity? These simple questions provide the analytical framework for evaluating and assessing the level of integrity and potency of the security strategies of these candidates. The media and the electorate must critically analyse candidates’ strategies and plans to ascertain their efficacy, albeit on paper.

    Statutorily, many of the internal security challenges prevalent in Nigeria fall within the responsibilities and purview of the Police. Persistent neglect of the Police and its misuse have combined to debauch its capacity to meet the people’s security demands. The increasing viciousness and veracity of violence across the country further call to question the capability of the Police to conduct its policing functions effectively.

    There is no gainsaying that policing has virtually collapsed in Nigeria today. We presently deploy our military across 34 of the 36 states in the country, saddled with tasks that the Police should perform. That many Nigerians have lost confidence in the Police is an understatement and a significant challenge. For the presidential candidates, a complete reform and decentralisation of the Police must be the prime agenda in the security strategy, and this must be a focal issue in the campaign. Critical questions for candidates are: how do they intend to restore people’s confidence in the Police? How will they tackle the retraining, retooling, and general welfare of the Police? The pendent issue of state police deserves an intense conversation, and the people must draw commitment to its implementation.

    Another critical issue is the porousness of our national borders, and this has exacerbated violence and criminalities because of the seamless access to sophisticated weapons across Nigeria’s borders and the unhindered movement of criminals into the country. Officially, Nigeria has about 84 approved land border control points but over 1,400 illegal border crossings. The stretch along the Northern boundaries with Benin Republic, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon are potential crossing points for illicit arms dealers, kidnappers, terrorists, and other criminals due to the dry Sahel vegetation and open Savannah terrain.

    Security experts have continuously warned that unless we address the issue of border security, the success expected in the fight against banditry will remain a mirage. What will the presidential candidates do about our porous borders? The electorate must ask tough questions to candidates on the issue of legal and illegal border control.

    The next issue is how to deal with ungoverned spaces and huge forests that provide a haven for bandits, terrorists, and criminals. Recent attacks in Kaduna airport, Kaduna – Abuja trains, and swaths of areas in Borno, Zamfara, Katsina and Nasarawa states were logistically possible because of insurgents and bandits in the Sambisa Forest in Borno State, Kuyambana and Ajja Forests in Zamfara, Birnin Kogo Forest in Katsina and Guma Forest in Nasarawa State. In Imo and Anambra states, secessionist agitators and the “unknown gunmen” have made the different forests in the States their hiding place.

    Having a large mass of ungoverned areas in the hands of armed bandits is a precursor to becoming a failed state. Hence government, at all levels, must assert its authority and firm control over all forests and rural areas. How will the candidates manage this problem of ungoverned spaces to stop Nigeria from becoming a failed state under their watch?

    The last issue is our military’s capacity and combat efficiency in terms of workforce and equipment to deal with kinetic and non-kinetic engagements. Given the asymmetrical nature of terrorism, banditry and insurgency, the Nigerian military needs all the support it can get, especially from a president. Compared with other armies in countries with similar terrorism and insurgency issues (like Pakistan and Egypt), our military personnel pales in number and defence spending as a percentage of GDP. Nigeria’s military personnel is about 190,000 whilst that of Pakistan is approximately 1,495,000, whilst our defence spending to GDP is 0.63%, that of Egypt is 1.2%. The presidential candidates’ strategy must explain to the electorate how they will deal with these anomalies.

    The debate on the cyclical nature of insecurity and unemployment is raging. Some argue that insecurity has helped push Nigeria’s unemployment levels to about 40%, while others say that the high unemployment rate causes the youths to engage in all forms of criminality, insurgency, and terrorism. This chicken and egg conundrum of insecurity and unemployment is beyond the scope of this discourse; however, we assume that the presidential candidates must articulate a way of reducing both social menaces crimpling our country. How they will do this should be the focal point of their campaign messages. Nigerians would like to hear from the presidential candidates their definitive position on issues of reform and decentralisation of policing, citizens’ involvement in security management, tackling terrorism, border security management, and youth unemployment. It is our duty as an electorate to demand these from the candidates. And cast our votes based on our conviction of who holds the best chance of making Nigeria great again.

  • Expensive Diesel and The Expansive Economic crisis – By Dakuku Peterside

    Expensive Diesel and The Expansive Economic crisis – By Dakuku Peterside

    Diesel has become a local symbol of the global energy crisis and Nigeria’s expansive economic woes. The astronomical rise in the price of diesel, the fuel that powers a large part of the industrial, commercial, and domestic activities in the Nigerian economy, has sent chills and ripples throughout the economy, from manufacturing giants through medium-sized enterprises and small-scale organisations to individual homes that rely on it for power because of non-existent or epileptic electric power supply.

    Diesel’s stronghold on Nigeria’s economy is seen from gigantic diesel powered generating plants that turn the industrial machines in Nigeria through the trucks used for long-distance haulage of industrial and finished goods to small devices used by small-scale enterprises. The demand for diesel is inelastic as there are virtually no substitute products in the short run; therefore, a change in price does not have a devastating impact on demand.

    Producers and consumers bear the brunt of the diesel price increases. The price rose from about N260 per liter late last year to over N850 in some parts of Nigeria currently, and this has put unprecedented stress on the economy, threatening its ability to produce goods and services .

    The debate about the cause of this scourge is raging. Some claim that it is because of the global energy crisis occasioned by the Russia-Ukraine war. Others argue that although the war in Europe may influence diesel prices in Nigeria, the effect alone should not have such an impact. The impact of the global energy crisis combined with local structural defects and deficiencies in the Nigeria energy mix, where although we are a large crude oil producer, we still import diesel and other petroleum products from abroad, have a lot to do with the rising prices.

    This opens Nigeria up to supply-side shock, especially during global crisis, and Nigeria is not importing enough diesel to meet local demand, which invariably forces the price of diesel up. In the short run, our local refining capacity is low because our national refineries are almost comatose. There is hope in the medium to long term that private refineries like Dangote Oil Refinery and Petrochemicals, Walter-smith Refineries ,OPAC Refineries, Niger Delta Petroleum Resources, BUA Refinery and Petrochemicals ;and Edo Refinery and Petrochemical Company  will increase local refining of crude and produce more diesel. But until then, Nigeria is at the mercy of the vagaries of the local and global energy crises that upend diesel supply and price with a devastating impact on the national economy.

    The immediate impact of the hike in diesel prices can be seen in the stranglehold it is having on the Nigerian economy. The increase in production and distribution costs for goods and services due to the high price of diesel is passed on to consumers, leading to hyperinflation. Prices of goods and services are going over the roof, worsening an already grim poverty situation. Most people struggle to make ends meet as their disposable income loses value daily. More people are impoverished and cannot get basic provisions.

    With the increase in prices, demand for goods with high demand elasticity plummets, which has a devastating effect on small-scale businesses that produce these goods and services and sometimes put them out of business. Hotels, private schools, artisans, and small-scale producers are responding by, reducing their staff strength, shortening their hours of operation , or shutting down outrightly because of the increase in the cost of production. This has negative implication for our fledgeling economy held together by these small businesses that are the engine room of our economy.

    Other macro-economic impacts include the potential of increased lending rate by banks which would affect local prices Besides, savings will suffer as people struggle to satisfy their basic needs with dwindling disposable income. .

    The social consequences of the harsh economic realities are enormous to contemplate. Soaring food as a result of rising fuel prices would ultimately lead to inflation. If furniture or smartphone prices rise, people can delay a purchase or forgo it. But they cannot stop eating. Likewise, increased transport costs affect most people and is inflationary by nature. This will further lead to high cost of living and lower standard of living.

    The last time the world suffered a food-price shock as we have now, it helped set off the Arab Spring, a wave of uprisings that ousted four presidents and led to horrific civil wars in faraway Syria and Libya. The “END SARS” bruhaha is still fresh in our minds.

    The government has to protect the economy and alleviate the pains of the problem of the high price of diesel. There is a vital strategic linkage between the diesel price hike and the movement of other variables in the economy  . The  Nigerian authority assumes that this problem is temporary and that diesel prices will return to normal levels soon, and this appears farfetched and unrealistic at best. Lack of proper energy planning for the future in the past has kept Nigeria in this state, and if nothing serious is done now, the crisis will exacerbate.

    We must acknowledge that the Russian – Ukraine war will continue in the immediate to probably medium term. The demand for diesel will continue to increase, given the electricity providers’ poor power supply to both commercial and private users. Nigeria needs the energy to power its industrialisation in a world working hard to jettison carbon energy for clean and renewable energy.

    It is time for a significant policy shift by the Nigerian government on oil. We need to start signing an array of sweeping executive orders and policies to create an energy mix fit for Nigeria’s growth. This policy shift should have short-term, medium-term, and long-term outlook. The short-term focus should be on solving the current diesel price crisis. As a matter of urgency,  out of compassion and concern for the people’s welfare ,the  government must tackle the high price of diesel  and other related items like cooking gas and gasoline , which directly impinge on mass welfare , to avoid the economic quagmire it is throwing the country into.

    The government should consider placing an embargo on VAT, Duties, and other forms of taxation on diesel immediately. Improved supply of diesel will significantly reduce supply-induced price increases. This includes provisions for more importation of diesel and intervening in the local distribution to most parts of the country to avoid shortage of the product in the country..

    Another short-term measure is to support electric suppliers to increase power supply to small, medium, and large-scale companies and, if possible, offer discounts on electricity tariffs to manufacturers. This will immediately reduce the demand for diesel and invariably impact the product’s price. Government should help affected businesses by offering tax holidays, grants and subventions to the small companies on the verge of collapse due to the impact of high diesel prices on their production cost. These costs may be catered for with the money from the oil windfall from the high cost of crude oil in the global market. The price has risen to almost $135 per barrel. We are not feeling the impact of the oil windfall, and we are not sure how that is used to protect the economy.

    In the medium term, the government should revive our moribund national refineries and increase their capacity to refine crude oil locally. It should encourage the proliferation of modular refineries to complement the quantity of diesel and petrol produced by government and private refineries. The government should turn Nigeria into a net exporter of refined petroleum products, including diesel, rather than exporting crude oil. The government should drastically reduce the amount of diesel imported from abroad, protecting the local energy sector and the economy from global energy crises like the one going on now because of the Russia- Ukraine war.

    In the long run, the government should plan for a post-carbon energy era. Sustainable and renewable energy is the future. The government needs to make policies and take actions targeting providing clean energy by using the advantages of existing carbon energy to fund the energy transition. I will suggest that government develops a new institutional mechanism for managing the funds from this last stage of rapid oil transition revenue. It should localise the Paris climate propositions, tax the fossil fuel industry, and use the funds to implement our energy transition before we can revoke permits for new and old oil fields and convert our government’s fleet of vehicles to electric power. We need an ambitious proposal that will drive net-zero greenhouse gas emissions across Nigeria’s economy by 2035 while not jeopardising the overall economic health.

    This situation of diesel price hike provides Nigeria with pains and opportunities. The ‘pains’ are excruciating and biting hard. People, companies, and organisations are struggling with the crippling effect of high energy prices, from petrol and gas to diesel. The economy is in a meltdown. Something needs to be done and done fast. But this time provides us the opportunity to get it right. To create policies and actions that will help with the energy crisis now. And in the future, offer energy solutions to grow our economy. That is why the forthcoming election is crucial. We must vote for leaders with the clarity of vision and capacity to tackle the energy crisis once and for all .

  • The world and Nigeria’s 2023 elections – By Dakuku Peterside

    The world and Nigeria’s 2023 elections – By Dakuku Peterside

    Nigerians look forward to the 2023 elections for many reasons: crippling insecurity, lawlessness, floundering economy, perennial suboptimal social services, and an obfuscate desire to hope for a better future. Most Nigerians look forward to having a president with the magic wand to tackle these socio-economic challenges and a leader that will set the country on a path to the Nigeria of our dreams. However, other people are interested in the elections and their outcomes for several reasons.

    Globalisation and its ever-increasing tendency for interdependency and interoperability of nations have brought to the fore the interests of global economic and power players in the Nigerian elections. These players have become stakeholders in the local elections in Nigeria that Presidential candidates, although acting local in dealing with issues of interest to Nigerians, must think global on how to contend with these global interests. This is especially expedient given the inevitability of the clash between Nigeria’s National Interests and the National Interests of these power blocs collectively or individually as nations.

    The bipolarity is increasingly becoming more evident now than ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s and most recently the Russia/ Ukraine war . The West, consisting of Western Europe and North America, is one powerful bloc and on the other end is China, unarguably a rising superpower that may end America’s claim to being a leader of a unipolar world. The West and China are interested in Nigeria’s national elections for varied reasons, but the convergence is in regional influence and economic interest. However Nigeria’s transitional election will compete for attention with other significant developments around the world. The major one is Russia/ Ukraine war of attrition . Europe and US are going to be preoccupied with this for another 1-2 years because of its impact on their energy supplies, cost of living and the domestic plight of their governments.

    The West has multiple interests in Nigeria , and this is what may drive her to take steps to influence the outcome of the Nigerian elections. Historically, the US and EU intervention in Nigeria’s election in the recent past has always been on the electoral process and promotion of democracy. However, in other climes, such as Latin America, Iraq, and Lebanon, it has been alleged that the West intervened in a partisan manner. A lot is at stake in this 2023 general election that the West may be tempted to go beyond the traditional cursory interest in promoting democracy to becoming overtly or covertly involved in these elections.

    First, Nigeria is at a crossroads and in a volatile state with heightened insecurity, insurgency, terrorist incursions, secessionist agitations and a melting economic situation. This election offers hopes to “bend the curve” politically, economically, and socially post Covid 19 pandemic and guarantee the level of internal security that discourages further terrorist incursions and needless migration of our youths . This hope must be actualised to avoid further deterioration and disaster. The West must maintain peace and stability in Nigeria devoid of political turmoil that will destabilise the sub-Saharan region, especially after the devastating impact of the destabilisation of Libya and the menacing exploits of international terrorist groups like ISWAP and Boko Haram.

    Second, the West have vast economic ties with Nigeria, and a stable and peaceful Nigeria will provide protection and a haven for substantial western investments, especially in the oil sector. Therefore, the West is interested in who will manage Nigeria Plc in a way to ensure the continued viability of its investments in Nigeria. Moreover, Nigeria is the biggest market in Africa. For decades, Nigeria has been the centrepiece of consumption of Western-produced goods and providers of raw materials to the West to produce these goods. Though detrimental to Nigeria’s economy and the bane of our economic development, this anomaly has been perpetuated by Western hegemony. Anything that threatens this vicious circle of massive provision of raw material to the West and enormous consumption of Western goods often attracts the attention of the West.

    Third, the West has traditionally maintained influence in the sub-region as colonisers, neo-colonisers, and imperialists. They try to keep this relationship by paying attention to political developments in the region. Nigeria, the most populous Black nation in the world, is of significant regional interest to the West. This is even more important as China, in recent times, has shown mostly economic interest in Africa and majorly in Nigeria.

    It is not surprising that both the United States and the European Union (EU) may provide money, technical support, and advice to INEC to ensure smooth elections in the country. They may also send international monitors whose effectiveness is doubtful.

    On the other hand, going by precedence, historical trajectory and foreign policy, China will not take any steps to influence the outcome of the elections but will be interested. China’s interest is primarily economic, at least for now, as China navigates its future role as a rising superpower. The more power it amasses, the more it may start showing aggressive interest in regional control and dominance. This is the point of divergence with the West.

    For now, China’s interest is predicated on four economic dimensions: first is the security of significant Chinese investment in Nigeria; second is that Nigeria, as Africa’s largest market and biggest economy, provides a tremendous demand for Chinese goods; the third dimension which is often relegated to the background is Nigeria’s indebtedness to China and the need to have a stable country so that it can recover its monies; the fourth is for forecasting and determining what it’s future policy objectives towards Nigeria should be.

    Given the above reasons, it is inevitable that outside forces may want to interfere with the forthcoming elections directly or indirectly. But it is the sole business of Nigerians to determine the kind of government we want. As a country and as political actors, we owe ourselves the duty of not allowing external forces to define who we are, our national interest and the kind of outcome we want from our political processes. Our politicians cannot afford to exchange our national interest for their short-term gains.

    I vehemently argue that as we worry over the Muslim-Muslim or Christain-Christain ticket, which geopolitical zone should the president come from, the age and quality of our candidates and all such sundry issues, let us spare time and thought for Nigeria’s national interest in the context of globalisation. For Nigeria’s political class, this is not the age of isolation. The responsibility of our candidates is to balance national interest with external linkages that are beneficial to our nation.

    Atiku Abubakar’s past antecedent indicates that he may be pro-West and pro-developed Arab nations. On the other hand, Ahmed Bola Tinubu is most likely pro-West. I doubt any presidential candidates will openly canvass for ideological marriage between Nigeria and China, and they are more willing to do more business and borrow more funds from China.

    As campaigns start, I hope to hear some elevated thoughts on how the presidential candidates intend to balance national interest, beneficial global presence, the foray of China into our economic space, the imperialistic interest of Europe and dominating spirit of the United States. This campaign must be issue-based and a clear articulation of foreign policy options will distinguish one candidate from another . How genuine is a democratic election fought not based on policy but elite interest and personality? This election must not be the only one in Post 1999 democratic experience where the electorate will not have policy platforms from which to choose. Is there any guarantee that elections fought based on elite interest and calculations will lead ultimately to the installation of the much-expected genuine democracy? I doubt it.

    The West’s fundamental interest will revolve around issues of security of the sub-region, economic interests, global oil and gas supply, political influence, and youth migration. Post Covid economic recovery and Ukraine/ Russia war will make Nigeria’s election more of a domestic rather than international headache. Although a passive participant, China is interested in protecting and advancing its economic interests in Nigeria, it’s involvement should be of interest to us as a nation .

    These two blocs’ interest in the presidential candidates and the general elections must concern Nigerians. We must engage with these blocs but try to do so on our terms. Articulating proper policies that always protect our national interest in engaging with these blocs is critical. Therefore, our politicians, especially the presidential candidates, must understand and engage with these power blocs with greater understanding. They must intentionally protect our collective national interest at all costs beyond their narrow parochial and selfish interest. They must not sell Nigeria for the ambition to become president.

    In a nutshell , this is a clarion call to all stakeholders in the Nigerian project and democratic experiment to protect our democracy and advance our national interest . The power of the people must be supreme. All must resist external influences that will subvert the people’s will, and we must engage with these external forces on our terms bearing in mind our national interest. We must use the opportunity of the 2023 general election to deepen our democracy. Although elections are essential, they are just a tiny aspect of democracy. We must start building democratic institutions or strengthen existing ones to be fit for purpose. Democratic ideals and principles, like the rule of law and fundamental human rights, must be the fulcrum of our democracy. Should elections be the sole criterion for democratisation in Nigeria? I say a resounding No. The time is nigh for a newly democratic Nigeria. We all must be part of the democratic process that will usher in a new dawn in our socio-economic development.

  • Take aways from the presidential nominations – By Dakuku Peterside

    Take aways from the presidential nominations – By Dakuku Peterside

    After a long voyage , all the political parties have concluded their special conventions and primaries, and they now have presidential flag bearers representing the parties at the polls next year. The past two weeks have been an endless season of tension, permutations, and intrigues. The drama that brought the two presidential candidates to victory is captivating and pulsating. There were no apparent upsets as the two presidential candidates from APC and PDP are political heavyweights and represent the culmination of what Nigerian politics have been in the past two decades.

    The symbolism of their candidature is not lost on us – the triumph of the political godfathers, the super rich and high-powered stakeholders in our political firmament . Whether their candidacy is what Nigerians expected or not, whether the process of choosing them is “dollarised” or not, whether their age is a factor in their efficiency in the presidential job or not, one of them would likely become the president come May 2023, barring any miracles.

    The theatre of presidential politics offers us the rare opportunity to reflect on our politics, our stunted development, and the future of our country. Like most Nigerians, I have conducted a post-mortem on the presidential primaries of the two major political parties in Nigeria borne out of my critical and sober reflection on all the political theatricals, actions and inactions of significant actors and institutions involved in the primaries. I want to share my five takeaways from the special convention of the two major political parties.

    First, I believe that Nigerians were interested in the primaries because they wanted the parties to choose a candidate who deeply understood the  myriads of Nigerian problems and could articulate solutions to them whilst galvanising all Nigerians to realise our collective aspiration as a people . Most people were disappointed because the primaries did not adequately showcase any candidate so that Nigerians could start making sense of who he is and what he represents. The profiles, service records, programmes and manifesto speeches of the aspirants did not count for much for the delegates who decided the presidential nomination.

    These attributes mattered to the public but not to delegates in their world. It was all about schemes, scams, and personal interest. A negligible number of delegates voted based on conviction of the competence and service record of the aspirants. Throughout the consultation and nomination process, except for an insignificant number of aspirants, nobody talked about how to solve our most pressing socio-economic  problems.

    Second, the primaries were auctions of some sort. What was at stake was who would be the highest bidder of an estate worth more than 411 billion US Dollars – the size of the Nigerian economy in 2019-2020. The leading aspirants going by what transpired at both conventions were ready to offer a paltry 100m USD for this piece of estate, making it the cheapest auction ever anywhere in the world. If we go by stories of some delegates that alleged that some aspirants offered between 5,000 and 20,000 USD each, a quick calculation will give you a vivid idea of the bid by leading aspirants in both political parties. Similar things happened on a smaller scale in the fringe parties.

    A lot has been said and written about the “dollarisation “of the presidential nomination process. It baggers belief that the presidency is for sale to the highest bidder at this stage of our political development. We discuss in and outside the venue of the primaries (social media, traditional media, and public sphere) about offering Dollars as an inducement  to delegates to vote for a candidate as if it is a normal behaviour.

    This action is a crime and, if proven, should have severe consequences on both the givers and the receivers. But not in Nigeria, where anything goes. Where is our collective conscience and morality? How do we want to be taken seriously as a country by other nations when the most important political office in the country is bought or sold to the highest bidder? How do we expect good leadership from a foundation of corruption and crass hedonism? Why must we be mercantile about our national leadership and development?

    Third, these primaries showcased elitism and elite dominance of the political system and structures. Major stakeholders, including the delegates, are of the elite class  or their cronies, and were there to do the bidding of the privileged class. It was a gathering of the political elite to struggle to control state power. We noticed different factions jostling for control. The gang of the governors was prominent in both PDP and APC primaries. Governors who controlled fiefdoms were directly or indirectly in control of delegates from their states, barring a few renegades who refused to be directed by the governors and must vote either based on personal conviction or dictates of the candidates that had paid Dollars.

    In these primaries, we saw the political elite’s insensitivity, manipulation  and greed displayed in gargantuan proportion, and even state  governors were not exempted. The level of personal greed was embarrassing, and there was no room for principles or conviction. Only a handful of the elite political class could restrain their greed even for money they do not need.

    Fourth, loyalty, morality  and friendship are meaningless in  Nigerian politics. The only thing that mattered was shifting interest. We saw politicians who have been long-time allies work at cross purposes and those who have been at each other’s throats for ages collaborate for personal gain and unfounded promises. Alliances and counter alliances were formed and broken. Politicians slaughtered personal relationships at the altar of political expediencies. Primordial sentiments and attachments led to friends and counterparts betraying each other.

    At long last, we saw ethnic feelings dictating choices made by some without considering what is best for Nigeria and the public the delegates are representing. Advocates of zoning felt hard done and cried wolf in both primaries, though Northern Governors Forum of APC  in a heroic act displayed unusual patriotism when the group insisted on presidential ticket of the party going south  . It may take time for the wounds created during these primaries to heal, and it may take time to rebuild trust and harmony among party members who felt betrayed and used by the system.

    Fifth, delegates did not vote for aspirants based on the issues of interest to the people they were supposed to represent. The welfare, interest and progress of the ordinary persons did not matter. Everything was purely transactional enterprise. Most Nigerians watching the primaries from home felt betrayed by the lack of sincerity of some aspirants who, at the last minute, when it mattered the most for them to sell their presidential aspirations to Nigerians, jettisoned the aspiration altogether and “en mass”, in some instances engage in the endorsement  of other aspirants thereby changing the equation of the selection process.

    These primaries illustrate the dire state of our politics and the need for a review of the whole democratic  process. The monetisation and dollarization of our politics leave a sour taste in the mouth of every democratic person. Although we have faulted the process, only time will tell whether the products of these processes will deliver Nigeria from this quagmire state and raise the hopes and aspirations of many hopeless Nigerians who have given up on Nigeria. The  candidates of the two major political parties, who  are wealthy political juggernauts, have been part of the orthodoxy, have planned for the presidency for many years, and have fought hard to clinch the ticket of their parties. We sincerely hope they have the elixir to Nigeria’s problems.

    At the end of my review, this convention or presidential nomination process revealed everything wrong with our politics – weak ideological foundation of the parties,the attitude of our people to democratic culture, the influence of poverty or lack of economic empowerment on political choices, the absence of citizenship rights and responsibilities in our politics, vanishing moral values and the desperation of the elite to hang on to power as the only means of survival and wealth in an economy that is very hard to create wealth privately.

    The whole charade  and shenanigans of the political class and their  desperation to grab power at all costs are linked to poverty and hopelessness in the land -poor people pay little or no attention to issues. Most ordinary Nigerians suffer from physical and material deprivation, whilst our political elites suffer from moral and mental poverty, as seen in their attitude and behaviours in the presidential nomination of two major  parties.

    We cannot continue this  way as a nation, and I hope subsequent primaries will see significant improvements in the identified areas. It is time to rethink our politics, party nomination process, the basis of our choices as individuals and the future of our country. I congratulate the presidential candidates of all the parties for winning the slot of their parties.

    I look forward to an issue-based campaign devoid of sleaze, mudslinging, ethnic and religious chauvinism, and campaign monetisation. We must get it right this time because we cannot afford to gamble with our collective destiny.

  • Peterside mourns passing of two Rivers’ APC officials

    Former Governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Rivers State, Dr. Dakuku Peterside has expressed sadness over the passing of two party officials in the state.

    TheNewsGuru.com (TNG) reports the two party officials were returning to Port Harcourt after the party’s Special National Convention when they were involved in a tragic accident along the Gwagwalada road, close to Abuja.

    The accident claimed the lives of the two officials of the party, of whom Peterside has said the sacrifices they made in their lifetime to build the APC in their respective local chapters shall not be in vain.

    Peterside said that though death was inevitable and a determined end to every human, he, however, noted that for the party officials to have died in the road accident, added more sorrow to the incident even as he noted that the party leader and former Transportation Minister, Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, the State Executive Committee, the Akuku Toru and Degema local areas chapters, but much more the bereaved families, must be pained beyond words.

    “Even as it is natural to grief when death strikes in families like in this instance, I have the confidence that the sacrifices they made in their lifetime to build the APC in their respective local chapters into a viable democratic institution, shall not be in vain.

    “They have planted, completed their parts and left, though leaving us in tears, but their democratic credentials should always spur us to greater service,” the party stalwart added.

    The former Director General of Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) prayed God to comfort the affected families and grant quick healing to all those involved in the accident.

    He also sent his condolences to the leadership of the party in the state, urging them to bear the pains with fortitude.

    Peterside tasked APC faithful in Rivers State to rally round the bereaved families as they left young wives and children, even as he noted that if there was any time APC in Rivers State must show love to them, it was now.

  • Our next Vice President – By Dakuku Peterside

    Our next Vice President – By Dakuku Peterside

    In the race to brace the tape of the presidency in 2023, the most consequential decision as to who would fly the flag of the major parties is made by delegates – a new set of power brokers, thanks to section 84(8) of the amended Electoral Act. PDP delegates chose Atiku Abubakar, and APC delegates will select one from a pack of thirteen ”shortlisted” aspirants. The other parties, often referred to as fringe parties, will also choose presidential candidates.

    The next most consequential decision would be outside the purview of these “new gods of presidential nomination” called delegates. And it will be made by the nominated presidential candidates in consultation with a handful of party leaders. I am referring to the choice of presidential running mates, one of whom would be our next Vice President (VP). It is traditional in presidential democracies that the Presidential candidates select the Vice-Presidential candidates to run with them in the general elections for the office of the presidency.

    The choice of the vice-presidential candidates made by the presidential candidates is not always a straightforward affair depending on the maturity of the democracy. In advanced democracies, the prominent basis for choosing a vice-presidential candidate is geopolitical electoral balancing or partnership that culminates in a qualified candidate to help the presumptive President run the state.

    The vice president, although having a limited constitutional role compared with the President, plays a vital role in leading the country, but most importantly, must be very presidential as he is a heartbeat away from the President under emergency, for example, when the President is incapacitated, resigns or dies.

    For this reason, the President must choose someone capable of running the state and not just a lame duck with little or no presidential sagacity, capabilities, and skills. Even though the first US Vice President, John Adams said the position was “the most insignificant invention ever contrived by man”, the position has come a long way since the 18th century.

    The selection of a running mate is complex, with all sorts of consideration outside the severe issues of a candidate’s suitability based on presidential qualities and capacity to lead and make a meaningful impact. Often, petty, extraneous, and insignificant issues determine who gets nominated as a Vice Presidential candidate without considering that a Vice President is a potential President. Whether in the APC, PDP, Labour, or any of the other parties in Nigeria, five things are topmost in choosing a Vice President, and none of these affects the quality of governance.

    The first is ethnic or geopolitical balancing. It is an unwritten rule that the President and the vice will not come from the same region, zone, or ethnic group. There is a North/South divide in this case, where if the President comes from the North, the Vice President will come from the South and Vice versa.

    Also, if the President comes from one major ethnic group, the vice president will come from another. The second primary consideration is religious balancing, often Christian versus Muslim and vice versa. Rarely will both the presidential and vice-presidential candidates be of  the same religion . The case of Abiola/Kingibe in 1993 is an exception.

    The third factor is intra-party group interest. The party’s internal power dynamics and factions may play an essential role in a vice president’s choice to carry every faction along. The fourth consideration is the ability of the vice president to raise money to prosecute the election because presidential elections are very capital intensive, and a deep purse is vital in conducting election campaigns. The fifth consideration is the ability of the vice president to win votes in the presidential elections. This is considered by looking at the political structure of the VP candidates or their popularity and electability.

    For now, PDP has produced a presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar. However, he is playing a cat- and-mouse game, waiting for APC to choose its flag bearer first before deciding on a running mate. This has not stopped clandestine manoeuvres, speculations, high-wire politicking, and intrigues. In the APC, the potential running mate is a matter of conjecture, permutation, and strategic positioning by all those who are interested.

    I advocate that we have a paradigm shift in choosing VPs in Nigeria. Although the factors considered above in selecting a VP emanate from our peculiar political circumstances and history, and although some of them make sense and may be logical considerations, we must make them peripheral and auxiliary factors in choosing a VP candidate by the presidential candidates.

    At the bottom of the issues that will influence the choice of a running mate who is a potential Vice President, in our clime , is the capacity to function as President. The potential VP must have a deep understanding of policies and economic issues in the country. He must understand and buy into the vision of the likely President and how he fits in with executing policies and projects to achieve that vision. Another important consideration would seem to be that of compatibility between the president and his deputy.  Our next VP must have a demonstrable and proven ability to be a provider of solutions to national problems.

    The Yar’adua-Jonathan case is still fresh in our minds. Providence calls, and we were stuck with Goodluck Jonathan, the VP, as the Acting President and later President. Jonathan was immediately expected to act presidential and continue the programmes, projects, and visions of the Yar’adua administration. This experience underscores the importance of choosing a VP carefully and allowing having the  executive capacity to function as a president to trump all other considerations in choosing a VP candidate.

    It is becoming increasingly apparent that the club of governors in APC and PDP have emerged as the most crucial bloc in deciding who a potential running mate should be. And I will not be surprised if the major parties go for them. It will be interesting to see how the other blocs in the party firmaments and political structures will react to the dominance of the club of governors in this case. My primary concern is not where the VP candidates come from but their suitability. Nigeria can get it right now and join the league of mature democracies that allow capacity rather than sentimental reasons to shape the choice of VP candidates.

    Even the electorate does not pay much attention to who the Vice-Presidential candidates are. Often, the issue of VP is reduced to ethnic or regional sentiments, and it gives politicians from the area the VP candidate comes from access to the villa. The common misconception that VPs do not matter in the political equation and are powerless in the scheme of things is wrong and must change with time. I only assume that this idea is perpetuated over time because of the inability of VPs to succeed their principals as presidents. However, we must never forget that VP plays a critical economic role in Nigeria. The VP has some constitutional functions, including presiding over National Economic Council. Imagine having a VP that cannot manage and make meaningful input into the NEC. That will be disastrous!

    In the absence of linking the potential VPs to the quality of input and output of governance, three key issues stare us in the face as parties and presidential candidates choose VP candidates. First, Nigerians should demand to know our potential VP as much as we want to know our presidential hopefuls so we can make an informed decision. Second, there are certain minimal qualities a potential VP must possess for the joint ticket to earn our confidence. And finally, a VP is a president in the waiting, so he  must share his idea of how he can turn around the country with the Nigerian people.

    The choice of VP candidate should send a signal on what matters to our presidential candidates. Is it politics, mundane governance issues, economy, or new thinking on how to salvage Nigeria? VP candidate should not be about satisfying petty sentiments or settling those who lost in internal party politics or those who can raise money for the election. We should see beyond these. We must acknowledge our time and realise that we need our best hands to bring us out of the political and economic quagmire. VP candidature is not a souvenir but a call to salvage the nation at a time of national economic and security crisis.

    The net effect of my proposition is that in the Presidential democratic system, the Executive at the centre of government is embodied in the President. As the executive head of the government, the President appoints and assembles all other members of the Executive to collaborate with him to execute and enforce the law and lead the people to prosperity. One person the President must choose and run within the election is his VP. The VP is a critical stakeholder in the presidency and, as such, must be selected carefully. The choice of the VP must transcend parochialism and pedantic reasoning. The VP candidature is serious business and must be treated as such. I must argue that the choice of a president’s VP says a lot about the psychology and direction of the presidency if the presidential candidate wins. One can extrapolate, albeit unscientifically, about the presidency’s mood, feel, and impact. If the presidential candidate gets his first choice of appointment (the VP) wrong, how can we trust him to get other essential appointments to the executive arm of government right?