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Tag: Dakuku Peterside

  • Is regional development commissions the new deal? – By Dakuku Peterside

    Is regional development commissions the new deal? – By Dakuku Peterside

    Before and since Nigeria gained independence, the quest for balanced regional development has been a persistent challenge. The vast disparities between the country’s geopolitical zones, each with unique socio-economic needs, have fueled ongoing debates about the most effective development models. Over the decades, Nigeria has experimented with various strategies, yet the gaps remain, feeding a sense of marginalisation and underdevelopment in many regions. The need for tailored solutions to address these disparities is not just pressing, it’s a necessity. One prominent approach has been the establishment of Regional Development Commissions (RDCs), agencies designed to address the peculiar challenges of each region. But as the number of these commissions continues to grow, a fundamental question arises: Are Regional Development Commissions the new deal Nigeria needs, or are they merely political tools serving the interests of an elite few?

    The idea of regional development agencies in Nigeria is not new. It dates back to 1960 when the outgoing British colonial government established the Niger Delta Development Board (NDDB). This initiative responded to the recommendations of Sir Henry Willink’s Commission Report of 1958, which identified the Niger Delta as a region requiring special intervention due to its challenging terrain and historical neglect. The Willink Commission was a landmark in Nigeria’s pre-independence political history, tasked with investigating the fears of minorities, particularly the ethnic groups in the Niger Delta, and proposing solutions to address their concerns. Its findings were clear: the Niger Delta faced unique environmental and developmental challenges that would require special attention. Thus, the NDDB was born, intended as a special-purpose vehicle to drive development in the oil-rich but underdeveloped Niger Delta.

    However, despite its promising start, the NDDB failed to achieve its objectives. Seven years after its creation, it was dissolved without having made any significant impact. Historical records indicate that political interference, inadequate funding, and a lack of clear strategic direction contributed to its failure. Moreover, the NDDB lacked the legal authority and institutional framework to implement large-scale projects, rendering it ineffective. This failure highlighted the complexities of centralised regional development and set the stage for decades of agitation for more effective solutions. From that period until now, demands for creating region-specific agencies have persisted, with each region clamouring for a development model tailored to its unique needs. This agitation was further fueled by the discovery of vast oil reserves in the Niger Delta, which, while contributing significantly to national revenue, left the region impoverished and environmentally degraded.

    The return to democratic governance in 1999 rekindled hopes for a more equitable distribution of national wealth and balanced regional development. It was against this backdrop that the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) was established in 2000 to replace the defunct NDDB and its successor agencies. The NDDC was conceived as a bold solution to the peculiar development challenges of the Niger Delta, which had been plagued by environmental degradation, poverty, and social unrest. With a clear mandate to drive sustainable development, alleviate poverty, and promote peace and security in the region, the NDDC was envisioned as a catalyst for positive change.

    However, over two decades later, the NDDC has become synonymous with corruption, political interference, and mismanagement. Numerous audits and investigative reports have exposed how political elites siphoned funds for the region’s development. For example, a 2020 forensic audit revealed that over 6 trillion Naira allocated to the NDDC between 2001 and 2019 was largely misappropriated. The commission’s projects were often abandoned or poorly executed, reflecting a pattern of waste and inefficiency. In 2021, the Nigerian Senate’s investigation into the NDDC’s activities uncovered 12,128 abandoned projects across the Niger Delta, raising serious questions about the commission’s effectiveness and accountability.

    The NDDC’s failure to deliver on its mandate has had far-reaching consequences. The Niger Delta remains underdeveloped, with high poverty rates, poor infrastructure, and widespread environmental degradation. Youth unemployment is rampant, contributing to social unrest and militancy in the region. The inability of the NDDC to address these issues has fueled public disillusionment and increased agitation for alternative development models. In 2020, protests erupted across the Niger Delta, with communities demanding accountability and transparency from the NDDC. These protests highlighted the growing frustration among the region’s inhabitants, who felt betrayed by an agency supposed to improve their lives.

    The need for targeted regional interventions became even more pronounced in the aftermath of the Boko Haram insurgency in the North East. The insurgency, which began in 2009, devastated the region, displacing millions and destroying infrastructure. In response, the North East Development Commission (NEDC) was established in 2017 to rebuild communities, resettle displaced people, and drive the region’s development. Its mandate included reconstructing schools, hospitals, and other public facilities, reviving the local economy, and promoting peace and stability. However, despite its noble intentions, the NEDC has faced significant challenges. Security concerns have hindered project execution, while corruption and bureaucratic inefficiency have undermined its impact.

    In 2022, the Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) report revealed that over 100 billion Naira allocated to the NEDC was unaccounted for, sparking public outrage and calls for greater transparency. Investigations uncovered inflated contracts, ghost projects, and political patronage, leading to questions about the commission’s commitment to its mandate. Additionally, the NEDC’s projects have been criticised for being poorly targeted, with many communities most affected by the insurgency receiving little or no support. This has created a sense of neglect and abandonment, exacerbating regional social tensions.

    In 2024, the quest for regional development took a new dimension with the establishment of three more RDCs: the North West Development Commission (NWDC), the South East Development Commission (SEDC), and the South West Development Commission (SWDC). Additionally, plans are underway to create the North Central Development Commission (NCDC) and the South-South Development Commission (SSDC). This unprecedented expansion of RDCs was driven by the belief that targeted, region-specific solutions are necessary for addressing Nigeria’s diverse challenges. Proponents argue that these commissions represent a new deal for Nigeria’s regional growth, providing the framework for decentralised governance and fostering regional collaboration, offering a ray of hope for the country’s future.

    Supporters of RDCs further argue that regional development agencies are necessary because different geopolitical zones face different challenges that require targeted solutions. For example, the environmental degradation and oil pollution in the Niger Delta require a different approach than the rebuilding of communities devastated by insurgency in the North East. The SEDC could promote industrialisation and entrepreneurship in the South East, while the NEDC could prioritise educational rehabilitation and security in the North East.

    RDCs are also seen as a step towards regionalism and political restructuring, enabling greater autonomy and self-determination. By tailoring programmes and projects to leverage regional strengths, RDCs can stimulate economic growth, foster collaboration among states, and enhance synergy with federal development agencies. Advocates argue that this decentralised model can bridge regional inequalities and promote national unity by giving marginalised areas a sense of inclusion and ownership.

    However, the optimistic vision of RDCs as drivers of regional transformation is not universally shared. Critics argue that RDCs are often politically motivated, serving as elite channels to siphon public resources. They contend that these commissions are another layer of bureaucracy, adding administrative costs without delivering tangible results. Corruption, patronage politics, and political interference are rampant, with RDCs frequently serving as tools for political manipulation and agents for funding the ruling party’s elections rather than vehicles for genuine development.

    Another major criticism is that RDCs are plagued by a democratic deficit. Although they are perceived as regional initiatives, they often lack the power to make critical policy decisions. Instead, powerful political actors outside the respective regions control decision-making processes, prioritising personal interests over regional needs. This undermines accountability and reduces public trust. Furthermore, the standardised template used for all RDCs, regardless of the unique challenges faced by each region, is counterproductive. A one-size-fits-all approach fails to leverage the comparative advantages of each region.

    The harsh reality is that RDCs have become centres of corruption that add little value to genuine development. They have evolved into extractive institutions in the mould of what Economist Daron Acemoglu described as institutions created to enrich select members of the elite political class at the expense of the general populace. From the NDDC experience, intervention agencies can function as alternate states, duplicating projects for other government tiers, such as waste management and road construction. This results in resource wastage and project duplication. In many cases, RDCs engage in projects outside their mandate, straining already scarce public funds.

    Fundamental reforms are necessary for RDCs to fulfil their promise as regional growth drivers. First, patronage politics must be eradicated through stringent anti-corruption measures and enhanced transparency. RDCs should not serve as political slush funds but as accountable entities focused on real development. Second, strategic planning and effective project execution should replace poor planning and haphazard implementation. Development models should be context-specific, reflecting the unique challenges of each region rather than adopting a one-size-fits-all approach. Public accountability must be prioritised by involving local communities in decision-making, ensuring that projects reflect the people’s needs. Finally, robust monitoring and evaluation systems should be implemented to assess performance and impact.

    Regional Development Commissions were conceived as catalysts for equitable development and regional prosperity in Nigeria. However, they have often fallen short due to corruption, inefficiency, and political manipulation. For RDCs to genuinely serve as engines of sustainable development, they must be adequately conceptualised, and we must prioritise transparency, accountability, and effectiveness. It is time to confront the failures of the past and reimagine RDCs as genuine vehicles for regional empowerment and national unity. Whether they rise to this challenge or remain tools of political patronage will determine the future of regional development in Nigeria.

  • Thoughts on the opposition – By Dakuku Peterside

    Thoughts on the opposition – By Dakuku Peterside

    Like other liberal democracies, Nigeria’s democratic system thrives on the existence of a vibrant and functional opposition. However, the current state of our political parties, as I discussed in a recent television appearance, is concerning. One of the key parameters to measure the efficacy of a political party is its organisational capacity and policy choices. Unfortunately, these elements are acutely lacking both in the ruling party and the opposition. Today, this column addresses the opposition’s role in deepening democracy.

    An effective opposition serves as a watchdog, providing checks and balances to the ruling party while offering alternative policies that enhance governance. However, in the nearly two years since the 2023 general elections, Nigeria’s opposition has been largely dormant, fragmented, and ineffective. This situation demands immediate attention and action.

    The absence of a strong opposition has left Nigeria’s democracy vulnerable to unchecked executive power, resulting in governance that often lacks accountability. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has faced minimal resistance in executing its policies, which has, in turn, weakened democratic engagement. The lack of credible opposition has led to a decline in democratic norms and a slide to “electoral autocracy.” This is neither inthe best interest of democratic consolidation nor the Nigerian people.

    In contrast, in other African democracies, such as South Africa, the opposition has played a more significant role in holding the ruling party accountable. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) continuously challenge the African National Congress (ANC), demonstrating the impact of a functional opposition. The Nigerian opposition must regain footing to ensure a balanced and competitive political landscape. A diverse political landscape is not just a luxury; it’s a necessity for a healthy democracy. The potential for change is within reach, and it’s up to the opposition to make it a reality.

    Opposition parties have failed to articulate distinct policy alternatives, leaving governance unchallenged and unresponsive to citizens’ needs. Without meaningful policy debates, decisions are made that lack depth, often without proper scrutiny or public engagement. For example, when President Bola Tinubu removed fuel subsidies in 2023, opposition parties failed to present an alternative plan, leaving civil society groups to lead protests against the consequential economic hardship.

    The opposition space in Nigeria has remained fractured, allowing the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to operate with little or no alternative voices and cruising as the political Octopus. APC has effectively established itself as the dominant political force, often unchallenged in policymaking and governance. The failure of opposition parties to unite under a common goal has further entrenched APC’s political control, making governance almost a one-party affair.

    One of the most frequently cited reasons for the opposition’s weakness is Nigeria’s patronage-based political culture, often referred to as ‘stomach infrastructure.’ This term encapsulates the tendency of politicians to prioritise personal gain and short-term benefits over long-term policy engagement. In such an environment, voters are more likely to support politicians who provide immediate material rewards rather than those advocating for institutional reforms. This system disproportionately favours the ruling party, which controls state resources and uses them to maintain loyalty. A 2022 survey by Afrobarometer revealed that over 40% of Nigerian voters admitted to receiving financial or material incentives from politicians before elections, underscoring the deep entrenchment of patronage politics. This trend is evident in many states, where political parties rely heavily on financial inducements to secure electoral victories.

    The PDP, once Nigeria’s dominant political force, has suffered from internal divisions, sabotage and ineffective leadership. Under Umar Damagum’suninspiring leadership, the party has become factionalised, with many state chapters experiencing disunity. Instead of acting as a formidable opposition, the PDP appears to be an extension of the ruling party, unable to mobilise effectively against APC’s policies. Defections by key PDP figures to the ruling party have further weakened its national standing and influence.

    LP and NNPP, which emerged as alternative forces in the 2023 elections, are embroiled in leadership crises. The Labour Party, which garnered significant support from young and urban voters, struggles with internal disputes, legal battles, and power struggles. Similarly, NNPP faces significant internal crises at the national and Kano state levels. The absence of institutional structures and the prevalence of patronage politics have weakened these parties, making them ineffective in consolidating opposition forces.

    There is widespread suspicion that APC uses state resources to co-opt opposition leaders through inducements or coercion. Some opposition figures are believed to have been compromised, leading to a lack of trust in the opposition’s leadership. When opposition leaders are seen as moles or agents of the party in power, it undermines their ability to present a serious challenge to the ruling party.

    The National Assembly, which should serve as an oversight body, has become a “rubber stamp” for the Executive. Opposition lawmakers have failed to challenge government policies effectively, allowing even the most controversial bills to pass without robust debate. The gale of opposition lawmakers’ defections to the ruling party has further exposed our opportunistic politics.

    Additionally, the APC-controlled National Assembly drowned out any form of alternative voices. This has further entrenched the APC’s dominance, as policies are implemented without meaningful alternative options. In 2024, the National Assembly passed multiple overlapping supplementary budgets with minimal scrutiny, raising concerns about the legislature’s independence.

    Despite the current dormancy, there are emerging signs of opposition figures regrouping. Recent socio-political gatherings have brought together opposition leaders and dissenting voices within the APC who share common criticisms of President Bola Tinubu’s neoliberal policies. One of such events was the two day national conference on strengthening democracy organised by Centre-LSD and other civil society organizations. These events indicate the potential for new alliances ahead of future elections. If effectively mobilised, this could begin a stronger, more unified opposition movement, which would be good for democratic consolidation. For example, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party’s Peter Obi have recently been seen attending similar political events, sparking speculation about a possible alliance for the 2027 elections. The recent meeting between Kwankwaso and Aregbesola has been argued as being unsettling to the ruling party.

    PDP seems to be bending the corner in its perennial internal conflicts. The parties BOT and the governor’s forum have jointly taken a stance on the crisis of who the National secretary is. They are working hard to resolve the many cases in court and gain the public’s confidence as a serious party, but whether this will succeed is another matter. The Labour Party, the country’s second leg of strong opposition, faces a significant internal crisis. Abure-led Executive and the party’s galvanising forces led by the party’s personality emblem, Peter Obi, are on different lanes. There is no love lost between all key actors in the party. Today, the Labour Party is a shadow of its 2023 form that rattled the ruling party.

    For the opposition to be taken seriously, it must bring together reform-minded elements from the PDP, progressive factions of the Labour Party and NNPP, and disillusioned APC members. This coalition should not be built on personal ambition but on a shared vision and clear ideological principles that differentiate it from APC.

    Beyond mere criticism of the ruling party, the opposition must invest in policy research and articulate superior governance strategies. Highlighting the failures of APC is not enough; opposition leaders must provide viable alternatives that resonate with the electorate. This requires intellectual rigour and extensive economic, security, and governance engagement. A 2023 report by SBM Intelligence indicated that 70% of Nigerians believe that opposition parties fail to present clear economic policies, reinforcing the need for a well-articulated alternative governance strategy.

    Additionally, smaller parties, which currently lack the national reach to be impactful, must be incorporated into a broader opposition framework. Although these small parties represent distinctive voices and ideologies, they must align under a bigger opposition ideology that will be sold to the people to challenge the ruling party at the centre. That is the only way they can make a meaningful impact on politics at the centre.

    A successful opposition must go beyond elite politics and engage directly with the grassroots. Without a strong grassroots presence, any opposition movement will struggle to gain widespread legitimacy and support.

    The opposition’s survival and relevance in Nigeria depend on unity, strategic policymaking, and grassroots engagement. A fragmented and ineffective opposition only strengthens APC’s dominance, undermining democratic accountability. However, the signs of reawakening provide hope that a more vigorous opposition could emerge in the coming years. For this to materialise, opposition leaders must prioritise coalition-buildin, develop apparent policy alternatives, and engage in extensive grassroots mobilisation. Only through these efforts can Nigeria’s democracy be revitalised, ensuring a governance system that is responsive to the needs of its people.

     

    Dakuku Peterside, PhD, a public sector turnaround expert, public policy analyst and leadership coach, is the author of the forthcoming book, “Leading in a Storm”, a book on crisis leadership.

  • Cash for legislative approval – By Dakuku Peterside

    Cash for legislative approval – By Dakuku Peterside

    Democracy thrives on transparency, accountability, and the rule of law. The legislature, as the guardian of democratic governance, plays a crucial role in lawmaking, budget approval, and oversight. These functions ensure that government policies align with the public interest, resources are allocated equitably, and the executive remains accountable. However, legislative corruption, particularly the exchange of money for legislation, undermines democracy, distorts policymaking, and erodes public trust in governance. Corruption in the legislature is a reduction of the sanctity of the legislature itself and a reduction of its credibility.

    In Nigeria, the escalating issue of legislative corruption is a cause for immediate concern. Public confidence in government institutions is rapidly eroding as lawmakers are perceived to prioritize personal gain over national development. At a recent Investors roundtable convened by the office of the Vice President, concerns were raised about the National Assembly’s obstructive stance towards business. Similarly, at a civil society gathering, participants alleged that the 10th National Assembly trades freely in legislation and legislative approval.

    Recent allegations, such as the 2025 Budget Scandal—where the Senate Committee on Tertiary Education and TETFUND allegedly demanded N8 million from each university vice chancellor for budget approval—highlight the systemic nature of bribery. With 60 federal universities involved, this equates to N480 million diverted from education to corruption. University administrators, already struggling with limited budgets, are left with no choice but to comply, exacerbating the crisis in the education sector.

    The issue extends beyond education. Foreign investors report that legislative hostility and demands for illicit payments deter business. A 2023 World Bank report ranked Nigeria 131st out of 190 in ease of doing business, citing bureaucratic corruption as a significant obstacle. These corrupt practices not only discourage foreign investment but also stifle economic growth, underscoring the urgent need for economic reforms.

    Civil society organisations have played a crucial role in exposing and challenging the 10th National Assembly’s corrupt practices. They have accused the Assembly of openly demanding cash or contracts before approving government projects and bills. This normalisation of corruption signals a dangerous shift in governance, where financial incentives dictate policy decisions rather than national interests. When bribery becomes a prerequisite for legislative approval, policies that could enhance economic development and social welfare are either delayed or distorted, ultimately harming the general populace.

    Corruption in Nigeria’s legislature has deep historical roots. During the Second Republic (1979–1983), legislators were accused of accepting bribes to influence national policies. Research conducted in 1996 by Dr Okonkwo Cletus Ugwu has this to say about the 1979-83 set of legislators: “The executive used other patronages like allocation of plots and distributorship to lure some of the Legislators into dancing to its tune.” This historical context of corruption in the legislature underscores the need for long-term solutions to this pervasive issue.

    Corruption in the legislative arm of government in Nigeria was not entirely the result of the legislators’ actions. In 1980, at the inception of the second republic, chief executives or heads of the executive arm of government at the federal and state levels introduced what was called “Assembly liaison officers”. Their main job was to lobby legislators, but it was in a negative sense here. Constituency projects entered the lexicon and were liberally abused without consequence. Transparency in the conduct of legislative business got blurred, and the culture of cash exchange for legislative support got entrenched.

    The return to democracy in 1999 saw a resurgence of corruption, with lawmakers demanding kickbacks for approving budgets and bills. The infamous “Ghana-Must-Go” scandal in 2000, where lawmakers received cash-stuffed bags to pass bills, exemplifies this era. The scandal exposed how much money influenced legislative decisions, setting a persistent precedent. About four Senate residents were removed between 1999 and 2007, all linked to issues of alleged corruption.

    Between 2007 and 2015, bribery became more institutionalised. Legislators exploited constituency projects for personal gain, diverting public funds intended for grassroots development. For instance, a 2013 audit revealed that over 60% of allocated constituency project funds in Nigeria were either unaccounted for or misappropriated. Lawmakers would allocate funds for non-existent projects, facilitate the award of contracts to their associates, or inflate project costs to siphon money for personal use. In her book “Fighting Corruption is Dangerous,” former Finance Minister Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala revealed that in 2014, the National Assembly was allegedly bribed with ₦17 billion by the administration of then-President Goodluck Jonathan to pass the budget. These claims underscored concerns about the integrity of the legislative budgeting process.

    Between 2015 and 2023, the Nigerian National Assembly was implicated in several corruption scandals, highlighting challenges in governance and accountability. Notable instances include allegations that in 2016, some members of the House of Representatives had inflated the national budget by inserting unauthorised projects, a practice known as budget padding. This led to internal conflicts and calls for investigations. However, the matter was not conclusively resolved.

    The present-day National Assembly is increasingly perceived as a bastion of corruption, where financial inducements determine legislative actions rather than public welfare. The growing perception that lawmakers prioritise their financial interests over governance responsibilities further alienates citizens from the democratic process. Public perception of the National Assembly as the “house of corruption” has far-reaching implications. It could create a legitimacy crisis for the entire government, lead to significant erosion of public trust in that institution, generally lead to poor service delivery as every implementing agency has a ready excuse not to perform, impede oversight function due to lack of cooperation, and could worsen corruption in ministries, departments and agencies (MDA).

    Legislators are elected to represent the will of their constituents and, therefore, the nation. Taking cash for legislation or even oversight is a corrupt thwart of popular will and public interest. A legislature degrades itself to the level of a bazaar floor where the highest bidder gets any legislation passed, including appropriation. The perception, rightly or wrongly, that whatever the executive wants passed, they must pay in advance does irreparable damage to the reputation of the symbol of the Nigerian people. Worse still, inviting corporate entities by the National Assembly committees to be harassed to cough out cash is a significant disincentive for investment. Although with scanty evidence, this “cash-for-legislative approval” phenomenon is now popularly referred to as the “midnight economy “.

    Legislative corruption has severe and far-reaching consequences. First, it erodes public trust in the National Assembly, creating a legitimacy crisis that can lead to political apathy and instability. According to a 2024 Transparency International report, 76% of Nigerians believe their legislature is corrupt, reflecting a profound loss of confidence in governance. As citizens become disillusioned with democratic institutions, voter turnout declines, and political engagement diminishes, weakening the very foundations of democracy.

    Secondly, weak legislative oversight allows financial mismanagement within ministries and government agencies, exacerbating governance failures. A 2019 report by Nigeria’s Auditor General found that over N300 billion in government funds remained unaccounted for due to weak legislative scrutiny. When lawmakers prioritise personal enrichment over oversight responsibilities, government agencies operate with little accountability, increasing inefficiency and waste.

    Thirdly, when corruption dictates policy decisions, essential public services—such as education, healthcare, and infrastructure—suffer due to misallocated funds. The alleged diversion of funds in the 2025 Budget Scandal exemplifies how universities, already struggling with poor infrastructure and inadequate funding, are further deprived of necessary resources. The long-term impact includes declining educational standards, brain drain and reduced economic competitiveness.

    When legislative approval paid for has economic consequences, the adverse impact is passed on to the public in the form of inflation, unfavorable trade terms, and high development project costs.

    The practice of cash-for-legislative approval threatens the foundation of democracy. Its legitimacy is severely compromised when the legislature operates as a marketplace where financial transactions dictate legislative decisions. The perception that legislative approvals are contingent on bribery damages the National Assembly’s reputation and discourages foreign investment. On a broader scale, corruption in the legislative branch of government sustains social injustice and economic inequality. It undermines the making of just laws, fair competition, and economic growth by fostering an atmosphere where only those with money and connections can get legislative approval.

    Without immediate reforms, Nigeria’s government’s credibility remains at risk. Corruption’s unchecked influence in legislative decision-making fosters a culture of impunity, where lawmakers feel emboldened to continue illicit practices without fear of consequences.

    Restoring accountability and transparency is imperative. Strengthening anti-corruption institutions, fostering media and civil society participation, and ensuring businesses operate free from legislative coercion are critical steps toward reform. The public must recognise that democracy is not self-sustaining; it requires active participation and vigilance to hold leaders accountable. Ultimately, the Nigerian people must demand change, as the survival of democracy depends on it. The battle against legislative corruption requires collective action, persistent advocacy, and unwavering commitment to justice. Through these efforts, Nigeria can build a future where governance serves the people rather than private interests.

  • AI, Nigeria and Trump 2.0 – By Dakuku Peterside

    AI, Nigeria and Trump 2.0 – By Dakuku Peterside

    The global race for artificial intelligence (AI) supremacy is swiftly redrawing the contours of economic and technological power, ushering in a new era that rivals the Industrial Revolution in its transformative potential.

    At the forefront of this seismic shift are nations like the United States and China, harnessing the boundless possibilities of AI to reshape industries, redefine societies, and propel their economies into uncharted realms of innovation. Projections by PwC forecast AI’s contribution to the global economy to soar to an astounding $4.4 trillion by 2030—a testament to its role as the cornerstone of future prosperity.

    Yet, as the world hurtles toward this brave new frontier, Nigeria stands at a perilous crossroads. Ill-prepared, burdened by insufficient infrastructure, and hindered by a tepid political commitment to technological advancement, the nation risks being left adrift in this age of digital transformation. The urgency is palpable; the call to action resounds not in some distant horizon, but in the present moment. To secure its place in the unfolding narrative of AI-driven progress, Nigeria must rise now, embracing bold policies, fostering innovation, and building the foundations for a future that refuses to be defined by obsolescence.

    With over 60% of Nigeria’s population under 25 years old, the potential for technological advancement is immense. These young minds, if nurtured and guided, could be the driving force that propels Nigeria into the AI era. However, the nation could miss opportunities for an AI-driven future without strategic action. We must examine the implications of America’s AI revolution for Nigeria, the nation’s current deficiencies in the AI economy, and the urgent steps needed to build a future-ready, tech-driven economy. There is hope in Nigeria’s youth and their potential to lead the country into the AI era.

    The United States has positioned itself as a global leader in AI, partly driven by competition with China. The fear of China’s rapid advancements in AI technology has catalysed America’s efforts to solidify its dominance in this field. AI is not only seen as an economic tool but also as a matter of national security and global influence.

    Donald Trump’s administration recognised the importance of AI early on. On his first day in office during his second term, Trump announced the $500 billion Stargate Project, a monumental investment in AI infrastructure, research, and education. This project, named after the science fiction device that enables instantaneous travel across the galaxy, aimed to catapult the US into a leading position in AI. His administration also repealed restrictive ethical AI policies to accelerate innovation and supported using public lands to construct AI data centres. These measures underscored the critical role of AI infrastructure and its reliance on energy, prompting the US to adopt ambitious energy policies to support its AI capabilities. For example, US energy consumption attributed to data centres alone accounts for nearly 2% of the country’s total electricity usage, a figure projected to grow as AI adoption expands.

    AI’s impact is not confined to technology alone; it has implications for military power, healthcare, finance, and governance. For instance, the US Department of Defence invested $1.7 billion in AI-focused initiatives between 2020 and 2023 to maintain a strategic edge. Similarly, AI applications in healthcare, such as IBM’s Watson, have demonstrated capabilities to analyse patient data and recommend personalised treatments, potentially reducing diagnostic errors by up to 30%. By harnessing these technologies, the US aims to lead economically and shape the global norms of AI development and usage.

    America’s ambitious AI agenda has far-reaching implications for countries like Nigeria. First, the economic implications are profound. AI is projected to add trillions of Dollars to the global economy by 2030, but Nigeria risks being excluded from these benefits due to its lack of technological readiness and economic diversification. The country’s overreliance on oil exports—which accounted for 90% of export revenue in 2022—further compounds this vulnerability. 

    Second, the energy implications are equally significant. AI infrastructure is energy-intensive, and the US has adopted policies to achieve energy sufficiency and increase fossil fuel exports. This shift could reduce global demand for Nigerian oil, resulting in lower prices and economic instability for the oil-dependent nation. 

    Third, the employment landscape is set to change drastically. AI is automating jobs across industries, creating a demand for AI-ready skills. According to the World Economic Forum, 85 million jobs globally could be displaced by AI by 2025, while 97 million new roles may emerge that require advanced digital skills. Unfortunately, Nigeria’s workforce is largely unprepared for this shift, increasing the risk of widespread unemployment and economic displacement. For example, only 22% of Nigerian graduates in 2022 pursued degrees in STEM fields, a critical area for AI readiness.

    Nigeria’s inability to adapt to the global AI revolution stems from several systemic issues. The absence of a national AI strategy is a glaring gap. Unlike other nations that have developed coordinated policies to guide AI development, Nigeria has yet to articulate a vision for integrating AI into its economy. This lack of direction is a critical issue that needs to be addressed, as it has resulted in missed opportunities to collaborate with global AI leaders or participate in AI-driven economic initiatives.

    Investing in STEM education and digital literacy is crucial to prepare Nigeria’s workforce for the AI-driven future. However, the poor integration of STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics) education into Nigeria’s curriculum limits the country’s ability to prepare a tech-savvy workforce. Addressing these educational deficits is key to ensuring Nigeria’s readiness for the AI revolution.

    However, there are glimmers of hope. Enugu State’s Smart School Project, launched by Governor Peter Mbah in June 2024, aims to revolutionise education and prepare young people for a tech-driven economy. This initiative, planned to equip 260 schools with digital classrooms and AI-driven learning platforms, is a step in the right direction, demonstrating that subnational governments can take proactive measures. Already, 50 schools have been equipped. Yet, such efforts are insufficient without scaling similar programmes nationwide.

    Leadership challenges also play a significant role. Many of Nigeria’s policymakers do not understand AI’s importance, focusing instead on short-term political gains and outdated economic models. This ignorance hampers the nation’s ability to make informed decisions about its technological future. Furthermore, the private sector’s limited involvement in AI research and development reduces Nigeria’s global competitiveness. For instance, while India has over 400 AI startups, Nigeria has fewer than 50, reflecting the stark difference in private-sector engagement.

    AI is transforming the global economy, with industries ranging from healthcare and agriculture to finance and transportation leveraging its capabilities. Countries that have invested in AI are already reaping its economic benefits, further widening the gap between technological leaders and laggards. In agriculture, for example, AI-powered tools have increased crop yields by up to 20% in countries like India and Brazil, demonstrating its transformative potential for developing economies.

    The energy equation is also being redefined. As nations prioritise renewable energy to sustain their AI infrastructure, fossil fuel-exporting countries like Nigeria face declining demand and revenue. This shift underscores the urgent need for Nigeria to diversify its economy and reduce its reliance on oil exports.

    Technological disparities between AI leaders and nations like Nigeria are becoming increasingly apparent. Without proactive measures, Nigeria risks being relegated to the periphery of the global economy, exacerbating inequality and economic dependency. The lack of a competitive technological ecosystem will further isolate Nigeria from the industries of the future, making it difficult to attract foreign investment or participate meaningfully in global trade networks.

    To avoid being left behind in the AI revolution, Nigeria must take decisive action to build its AI readiness. Five key prerequisites are essential: First, massive investment in reliable, affordable, and sustainable energy sources is critical to supporting AI infrastructure. We should prioritise renewable energy projects and modernise the national grid. Second, developing data centres, cloud storage, and high-speed internet access is crucial for fostering AI development. Public-private partnerships can accelerate the creation of these infrastructures. 

    Third, overhauling the education system to prioritise technology-driven learning is imperative. Enugu’s Smart School Project should serve as a model, with similar programmes scaled nationwide. Schools and universities must integrate AI and coding into their curricula to prepare students for the jobs of the future. Fourth, increased funding for AI research and partnerships with global tech leaders are essential to drive innovation. Nigeria must incentivise local tech companies and startups to focus on AI applications tailored to local challenges. And finally, implementing policies to guide AI ethics, usage, and innovation is necessary for sustainable growth. Regulatory bodies must ensure that AI technologies are deployed responsibly and inclusively.

    Nigeria’s readiness scorecard is dismal, with significant gaps in all these areas. Nigerian federal and state leadership must think outside the box and rise to America’s $500 billion stargate challenge because it would pressure Nigeria’s economic calculations. AI is essential to Nigeria’s economy since it presents game-changing possibilities in several industries. It can boost healthcare, education, and agricultural productivity, diversifying the economy and creating jobs. To address the AI rookie status, the federal and state governments must establish a national AI council, partner with international organisations and tech firms, and launch initiatives to educate and train the workforce in AI technologies. The private sector and academia must also invest in AI research and foster public-private partnerships to accelerate development.

    The world is entering a new industrial era driven by AI, and nations that fail to adapt risk being left behind. For Nigeria, the stakes are high: economic marginalisation, job losses, and dwindling relevance on the global stage. The time to act is now. Nigeria can position itself as a competitive player in the AI economy by investing in energy, education, and infrastructure and developing a cohesive national AI strategy. Without these efforts, the country’s future in the global technological landscape remains uncertain. However, with visionary leadership, strategic investments, and collective efforts, Nigeria can overcome its challenges and secure a place in the age of artificial intelligence.

     

    Dakuku Peterside , PhD , is a public sector turnaround expert, public policy analyst and leadership coach,  and is the author of the forthcoming book, “Leading in a Storm”, a book on crisis leadership.

  • Lessons of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire – By Dakuku Peterside

    Lessons of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire – By Dakuku Peterside

    The Israel-Palestine-Hamas conflict is one of the most enduring and complex disputes in modern history. Its roots lie in centuries of territorial, political, and religious disagreements, making it a profoundly ingrained issue. The history of the conflict can be traced back to ancient disputes over the land, but it has taken on modern dimensions since the early 20th century, with competing national movements and the aftermath of colonial policies. This issue is not merely a local or regional matter; it resonates globally, influencing international relations and stirring emotions across continents. Despite varying perspectives, the central elements of this conflict are widely known, including debates over land, sovereignty, and the rights of the people involved. 

    The latest chapter of violence, which began on October 7th, 2023, marks another peak in this longstanding dispute. The toll of destruction and human suffering underscores the urgent need for sustainable solutions, emphasizing the gravity of the situation.

    The toll of the conflict has been staggering. In the past 15 months, at least 46,707 people in Gaza have been killed, which includes about 18,000 children. Many analysts and rights groups believe the actual number killed is far higher. Over a million people are displaced within Gaza, and the infrastructure is in shambles. Additionally, centuries of cultural and historical heritage have been lost, further eroding the identity of the affected communities with a broader impact on both local and global narratives. 

    The consequences of this conflict extend beyond Gaza. In neighbouring regions such as Iran and Lebanon, the spillover effects have led to further instability and casualties. Hezbollah’s involvement, for instance, has escalated tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border, leading to clashes that have claimed dozens of lives. Iran and Israel have been in kinetic engagement, leading to fears of broadening escalations. The Houthi rebels in Yemen are not excluded from the conflict. The interconnected nature of Middle Eastern geopolitics means that unrest in one area often triggers broader regional tensions, creating a complex and difficult-to-resolve cycle of violence. 

    Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire and a hostage-for-prisoner exchange, marking the first pause in fighting in Gaza since November 2023. The initial phase involves Hamas releasing 33 Israeli hostages, including women, the elderly, and two children from the Bibas family, in exchange for Israel freeing hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including those serving life sentences. Israel will also partially withdraw its forces from the Netzarim corridor, which divides Gaza while maintaining a security buffer zone along Gaza’s perimeter. This two-stage deal allows both sides to claim adherence to their respective demands but remains fragile, with Israeli officials insisting the war is not over and Hamas leadership potentially facing exile.

    The second phase, set to begin 16 days after the agreement’s implementation, focuses on the release of the remaining Israeli male hostages and captured soldiers. During this phase, Israel plans to redeploy forces along Gaza’s border with Egypt, specifically in the Philadelphi corridor, while evacuating the Rafah Crossing. This move would mark a strategic shift, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu previously emphasized the importance of maintaining control in this area for national security. However, the ceasefire’s success is fragile, depending on whether both sides adhere to the terms. There is a real potential for renewed hostilities if negotiations falter or conditions are unmet, highlighting the situation’s fragility.

    Ceasefires in conflict zones like Gaza often fail to address the root causes of violence. Systemic issues such as military occupation, economic blockades, and widespread humanitarian crises often remain unaddressed. Both sides must take genuine steps toward peace to prevent these agreements from becoming temporary pauses in violence. This includes implementing international involvement and enforcement mechanisms, such as the United Nations observer missions, crucial to ensuring the ceasefire’s success. The UN’s role in monitoring post-conflict agreements in regions like Cyprus and the Balkans demonstrates the potential effectiveness of sustained international oversight.

    The international community has played a significant role in this conflict, with nations and organizations offering varying support and criticism. Diplomatic efforts to broker the ceasefire involved multiple stakeholders, including Egypt and Qatar. This highlights the importance of multilateral cooperation. However, the conflict has also deepened global geopolitical tensions as nations take sides based on strategic interests. For instance, the United States provided over $3.8 billion in annual military aid to Israel, while Iran continued to supply financial and military support to Hamas. This dynamic mirrors Cold War-era proxy conflicts, where superpowers supported opposing sides to advance their agendas, often at the expense of local populations.

    Stability in the Middle East depends on sustained international support and efforts to mediate disputes. Influential nations and organizations must work collectively to ensure adherence to the ceasefire and facilitate long-term peace negotiations. Addressing underlying grievances and promoting economic development are vital for achieving lasting regional stability. What are some of the lessons, especially for Nigeria, from this conflict?

    This conflict underscores the importance of military and technological strength (hard power} in international relations. Nations with advanced defence capabilities are better positioned to protect their sovereignty and influence global politics. For countries like Nigeria, this lesson highlights the need to invest in self-reliant defence systems and technological development. Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system, which intercepted over 90% of incoming rockets during the conflict, serves as a prime example of the strategic advantage provided by advanced technology. Mere proclamations of power, such as being “the giant of Africa,” are insufficient without tangible capabilities to back them up. 

    Alliances play a crucial role in shaping the dynamics of conflicts. Israel’s strong relationships with the US and the UK provided significant resources and diplomatic support. Conversely, Palestine relied on allies such as Iran, Lebanon, and Syria. The power of alliances provides resources and influences international narratives and outcomes. For instance, the US vetoed numerous UN Security Council resolutions criticizing Israel, showcasing how alliances can shape international discourse. Building and maintaining strategic alliances is essential for nations navigating complex geopolitical landscapes. What strategic military relationships and partnerships has Nigeria built?

    Strategic miscalculations can have severe consequences, as seen in this conflict. Hamas’s potential underestimation of Israel’s capabilities led to devastating losses, including the destruction of key infrastructure and the loss of high-ranking officials. This is a reminder that nations must avoid engaging in war or making threats unless they are thoroughly prepared for the repercussions. It is good that ECOWAS avoided any arms conflict with the member countries where military coups happened in the past few years. 

    Governments must navigate both domestic and international priorities. Nigeria leaders must balance internal political dynamics with foreign policy objectives, ensuring their actions align with long-term national interests. For example, Israel’s decision to escalate its military response was influenced by domestic political pressures, including public demand for security. We must strengthen the dynamism between public opinion, public demands, and public policies in Nigeria.

    History shows that all conflicts eventually end in negotiation. Diplomacy and dialogue should always be prioritized over war as the primary means of resolving disputes. War’s human and economic costs are too significant to ignore, making peaceful resolutions the preferred alternative. For instance, the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland is a testament to the power of sustained dialogue in resolving deeply entrenched conflicts. With insurgency, banditry, terrorism and calls for secession plaguing Nigeria, the importance of negotiations and dialogues as the best means of conflict resolution must be in the fore.  

    While technology plays a crucial role in modern warfare, its limitations necessitate robust human intelligence. Accurate information and strategic insights are invaluable for ensuring national security and avoiding unnecessary conflicts. For instance, the failure of intelligence agencies to anticipate the scale of the October 7th attacks highlights the critical need for improved human intelligence. Nigeria must develop intelligence structures and systems that are robust and fit for purpose. 

    Authoritarian regimes often heighten the risk of conflict through repression and electoral manipulation. African nations must prioritize democratic governance to reduce tensions and promote stability. Allowing popular mandates to triumph can help prevent the conditions that lead to unrest and violence. For instance, widespread protests in Sudan and Ethiopia have shown how repression can escalate into broader conflict. Similarly, the Arab Spring demonstrated how decades of authoritarian rule could culminate in widespread unrest and demands for democratic reform. The Nigerian government must resist any authoritarian tendencies to maintain peace and stability. 

    The ceasefire’s success depends on addressing underlying political dynamics, such as shifts in regional leadership and changing global power structures. The most far-reaching benefit of this ceasefire is the avenue it opens for a broader Middle East peace. With the prospect of Trump’s imminent return to power, the ceasefire rekindles the prospect of resuming the Abraham Accord, which he initiated. Israel can now seek a broader peace with Middle Eastern countries with Saudi Arabia as an anchor. Prosperity and mutual respect should now replace aggression and hostility. The prosperity and development which we see in UAE can now spread to Gaza, Lebanon and the entire region powered by Saudi capital and Israeli technology and entrepreneurship.

    The Israel-Palestine conflict serves as a stark reminder of the complexity of achieving lasting peace in deeply divided societies. The ongoing struggles highlight the need for innovative conflict resolution approaches beyond traditional methods. The global community has a moral and strategic responsibility to promote dialogue, ensure accountability, and support efforts toward lasting peace. The lessons from this conflict must be applied not only to the Middle East but to all regions grappling with similar challenges. Humanity can resolve such protracted conflicts through collective action and genuine commitment. Leaders and citizens must work together to prioritize peace over violence, ensuring a brighter and more equitable future for all.

     

    Dakuku Peterside , PhD , Public Sector Turnaround Expert, Public Policy Analyst and Leadership Coach is the author of the forthcoming book, Leading in a Storm, a book on crisis leadership.

  • Positive signals for healthcare – By Dakuku Peterside

    Positive signals for healthcare – By Dakuku Peterside

    Economic, social, and political conditions influence healthcare, a reflection of societal advancement. From ancient civilisations to modern nations, the development of healthcare systems has been a testament to societal priorities and quality of  governance. The ability to deliver healthcare services reflects the state’s commitment to its citizens’ welfare and fosters long-term national growth by improving human capital and productivity. A nation’s healthcare infrastructure plays a vital role in shaping economic output, as healthier populations are more likely to contribute effectively to the workforce, innovate, and drive forward a country’s social and economic engine.

    Moreover, healthcare advancements can serve as a unifying factor, bridging gaps in inequality and reinforcing trust in governance. The evolution of healthcare over the centuries reflects the continuous journey of societies striving for better living standards. From rudimentary herbal remedies to sophisticated surgeries and digital health solutions, healthcare advancements mirror human resilience and ingenuity. Societies prioritising health have often experienced more excellent political stability, longer life expectancies, and accelerated economic growth.

    Ancient Egypt stands out as a prime example of a society that understood the importance of healthcare. In Deir el-Medina, a village housing workers was constructing royal tombs, and organised medical care was provided, highlighting the existence of one of the earliest governmental healthcare systems. Egyptian medicine was advanced, incorporating surgical skills, specialisation, and formal training. Physicians such as Imhotep revered as the first recorded physician, set foundational practices for the medical profession.

    Modern parallels can be drawn to nations like Germany and Japan, whose healthcare systems are ranked among the best globally. Germany’s universal healthcare system, dating back to the 1880s under Chancellor Otto von Bismarck, covers over 90% of its population. The German system comprises comprehensive services, including maternity care, preventive medicine, and mental health support. Japan’s focus on preventive care has contributed to one of the highest life expectancy rates in the world, with average life expectancy reaching 84.6 years by 2023. This is primarily attributed to regular health check-ups, early disease detection, and an emphasis on diet and exercise.

    Just as Ancient Egypt’s healthcare advancements reflected societal values, modern nations viewed healthcare improvements as essential progress indicators. Healthcare systems today drive societal growth by reducing mortality, enhancing quality of life, and enabling greater productivity and participation. However, a  2022 Lancet report ranking health systems performance using healthcare access and quality placed Nigeria at 142 out of 195 countries, right in the basement. The maternal mortality rate remains high, at 512 deaths per 100,000 live births as of 2023, the third highest globally. Only 39% of children were fully immunised, compared to the global average of 85, reflecting systemic challenges in healthcare delivery. High out-of-pocket expenses, limited healthcare infrastructure, and a shortage of medical personnel contributed to these statistics. However, countries like South Africa have an immunisation coverage rate of 82%, and Rwanda boasts a 95% immunisation rate, showcasing the potential for improvement through targeted healthcare policies and community engagement programs.

    At the start of 2024, there was a palpable sense that healthcare was returning as a national priority in Nigeria. This renewed focus came after the appointment of Professor Muhammad Ali Pate as Coordinating Minister of Health in 2023. Last year witnessed a pivotal change in Nigeria’s health sector. Public intellectuals must objectively criticise government policies and officials because that forms the basis for improvement and growth. This critique often highlights areas of concern and challenges and calls for action by government officials and institutions responsible for them. However, recognising achievements and encouraging and praising where necessary are essential. Recognising achievements in the health sector boosts public morale, reinforces trust, and fosters innovation.

    Under Professor Pate’s leadership, the Nigeria Health Sector Renewal Investment Initiative (NHSRII) was introduced to overhaul the health sector by addressing systemic issues and driving sustainable improvements. The initiative is anchored on four critical pillars: strengthening leadership, policy development, and accountability; enhancing infrastructure, training, and healthcare delivery; encouraging private sector investment and local manufacturing; and focusing on preparedness and response to health emergencies. NHSRII aims to reduce healthcare inequalities, promote gender equity in access to services, and ensure the sustainability of health reforms.

    NHSRII is implemented through a Sector-Wide Approach (SWAp), which ensures coordinated action across all levels of government, aligns donor efforts with national policies, and fosters collaboration among stakeholders to drive meaningful progress. This integrated approach draws inspiration from successful models in countries like Ghana and Tanzania, where SWAp has been used to streamline donor funding and align development assistance with national healthcare strategies.

    One of the most notable achievements in the past year in the health sector is the reduction in under-five mortality by 16.7%. This decline, from 132 per 1,000 live births in 2018 to 110 per 1,000 live births in 2023, marks significant progress in child health. The reduction highlights improvements in prenatal care, better nutrition programmes, and expanded vaccination campaigns. This significant reduction in under-five mortality should reassure the audience about the effectiveness and progress of the Healthcare system, instilling a sense of confidence and trust.

    In 2024, Nigeria achieved a milestone in HPV vaccination, with 12.3 million girls aged 9-14 years vaccinated across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), representing 96% of the target population. This achievement is the highest global coverage for HPV vaccination, providing a critical defence against cervical cancer. Cervical cancer remains a leading cause of cancer deaths among Nigerian women, making this effort pivotal in reducing long-term mortality rates. The initiative also underscores the importance of community engagement, school-based vaccination programs, and public awareness campaigns. By involving the community, these initiatives make every individual feel integral to the process, fostering a sense of involvement and responsibility.

    In November 2024, Nigeria launched a malaria vaccine pilot program in Bayelsa and Kebbi states. Currently, 41,145 children have been vaccinated, reflecting the government’s commitment to addressing endemic diseases. Malaria accounts for 23% of child mortality in Nigeria, and the successful pilot paves the way for nationwide expansion, potentially saving thousands of lives annually.

    Health insurance expansion is another critical area of progress. By 2024, all states had functional State Health Insurance Agencies (SSHIAs). Over NGN 12 billion has been disbursed, covering 1.7 million lives. The National Health Insurance Authority (NHIA) surpassed its 2024 target by enrolling 2 million Nigerians, representing a 14% increase from the previous year. Currently, 19.4 million individuals are insured, marking an essential step towards universal health coverage and reducing the financial burden of healthcare.

    The healthcare sector is experiencing increased investment, with 74 pipeline companies actively discussing 22 significant projects. Most initiatives involve foreign manufacturers deploying funding to establish or support local manufacturing operations in Nigeria. This effort, amounting to over $2 billion, highlights the importance of regulatory support and market-shaping strategies.

    Human resources for health have also been prioritised, with 53,732 health workers retrained across 32 states, contributing to improved service delivery. This retraining programme equips frontline health workers with updated maternal and child health skills, disease prevention, and emergency response. The curriculum integrates the latest medical advancements and emphasises hands-on training, ensuring healthcare workers are prepared to manage various health conditions. This investment in human capital is expected to enhance healthcare outcomes, reduce medical errors, and increase patient satisfaction.

    One of the critical challenges facing Nigeria’s healthcare system is workforce migration. The exodus of skilled healthcare professionals seeking better opportunities abroad has led to a shortage of qualified personnel, straining the capacity of health facilities across the country. The National Policy on Health Workforce Migration was introduced in August 2024 to address this. This policy focuses on improving working conditions, offering better incentives, and providing career development opportunities to retain healthcare professionals. Salary increments, improved job security, and enhanced welfare packages are among the measures implemented to curb migration. Additionally, the initiative seeks to attract Nigerian healthcare workers from the diaspora, encouraging them to return and contribute to the local system by providing reintegration programs, competitive salaries, and grants for healthcare entrepreneurship.

    Despite the  modest progress, Nigeria faces budgetary constraints that threaten the sustainability of these reforms. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s proposed 2025 budget allocates only 5.18% (2.48 trillion naira) to healthcare, falling short of the 15% target set by the Abuja Declaration. This underscores the need for more effective use of available resources. The Sector-Wide Approach (SWAp) will be instrumental in ensuring that limited funds are maximised. By aligning donor contributions with national policies and creating a unified framework, Nigeria can enhance the efficiency and impact of health spending. Increasing domestic investment, fostering public-private partnerships, and expanding tax revenue allocated to healthcare will be crucial for sustaining progress and driving economic growth.

    In conclusion, Nigeria’s renewed focus on healthcare signals a critical turning point in the nation’s development. The progress achieved through initiatives like NHSRII, immunisation programmes , and workforce retention strategies reflects a broader commitment to improving public health. Recognising achievements in the health sector energises the sector. By celebrating milestones and addressing challenges proactively, Nigeria can build a resilient healthcare system capable of meeting future needs and improving overall societal well-being. Sustained investment, collaboration, and accountability will be essential in ensuring the longevity and impact of these reforms.

  • Letter to the Year 2024 – By Dakuku Peterside

    Letter to the Year 2024 – By Dakuku Peterside

    My dear 2024,

    Letter writing may be a lost art in this digital age, yet there are moments when the weight of reflection demands the intimacy of a letter. So, dear 2024, consider this a heartfelt note from a Nigerian seeking to encapsulate the whirlwind of emotions, events, and transformations that have unfolded over the past twelve months. As I pen down these words, I do so with the awareness that you are not an ordinary year. Your arrival brought hope, but as the days rolled, that hope was replaced with hardship, struggle,  perseverance and lessons.

    In this letter, as tricky as it may be, I will attempt to recount the key events that shaped you – the milestones that defined not only my life but the collective experience of a nation grappling with economic hardship, political uncertainty, and social upheaval. Nigeria stands at a crossroads, and you will be remembered as a year that tested our spirit and resolve. This is not just a recollection of facts but a narrative of survival in a land where, at times, the future seemed uncertain.

    You were, indeed harsh, but we, the Nigerian people, have shown remarkable resilience and perseverance. Despite the economic hardships you brought, with inflation, unemployment, and rising living costs affecting all, we have stood strong. Your visitation of economic hardships worsened by 34-40% inflation rate and supply chain disruptions, an embarrassing unemployment rate of 40%, and rising living costs affected both the high and the low. Almost all households felt your pinch. Nigeria’s food inflation rate rose to close to  40% by mid-year, pushing millions into poverty. National Bureau of Statistics reports indicated that over 71 million Nigerians faced food insecurity by the third quarter. The exchange rate rose by over 60%. Yet, amid these challenges, the Nigerian people showed remarkable resilience and perseverance.

    To put it into context, essential commodities such as rice, maize, and garri doubled in price within months. The petrol price fluctuated between ₦700 to ₦1200 per litre, severely impacting transportation and logistics. Even sachet water, popularly called ‘pure water’, became a luxury for many, reflecting the depth of economic strain. You made our economic thinkers and planners look clueless. Thank God we, the people, showed understanding with them.

    You brought needless political contentions –the Rivers crisis, contentious elections in Edo and Ondo states, the Kano Emir drama, the Old-New-Old national anthem, and “Endbadgovernance”demonstrations. An attempt to reform our tax system highlighted our stubborn ethnic fault lines. You were not short of drama, both relevant and irrelevant. The reinstatement of the old national anthem left citizens divided, as critics viewed it as distracting from pressing governance issues. However, amid these contentions, the Nigerian people stood united, showing remarkable solidarity. Despite the divisive nature of  some of these events, we have remained a united front.

    Poverty and hunger became our companions, resulting in three deadly stampedes during palliative distributions in Oyo, Anambra, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), leaving no fewer than 60 people dead. Unemployment among the youth reached over 45%, with many university graduates resorting to menial jobs or leaving the country in search of greener pastures, contributing to the ongoing ‘Japa’ wave.

    At the global scene, you delivered historic elections and global unrest. People in more than 60 countries—representing almost 50 per cent of the world’s population—went to the polls during the year. Voters in Mexico and the United Kingdom picked new leaders, while a former U.S. president was invited by voters back to the White House. In Nigeria, voter turnout in local elections dipped to a record low of 28%, reflecting growing disillusionment with governance. This disinterest was amplified by widespread insecurity, with over 1,500 reported cases of abduction and banditry disrupting daily life. Villages in Zamfara, Kaduna, and Borno faced relentless attacks, forcing thousands into internally displaced persons (IDP) camps. “Lakurawa” gained a strong foothold in parts of North-West states.

    Some strange things happened that we did not foresee. Greece extended adoption rights to same-sex couples, and Thailand legalised same-sex marriage, becoming the first country in Southeast Asia to do so. You gave LGBTQ+ rights activists something to celebrate. This felt strange in this part of the world, where same-sex relations remain criminalised, and social acceptance lags far behind. In Nigeria, lawmakers intensified efforts to uphold conservative values, with proposed bills aimed at further restricting LGBTQ+ rights. The disparity in cultural values highlighted the widening gap between regions of the world, reflecting the complex layers of societal evolution.

    You saw the world in turmoil, and the Russian vs Ukraine war continued unabated. This war brought about lots of military posturing, leading some to fear nuclear conflict between Russia and NATO. The conflict between Israel, Hamas, and Iran ramped up to greater heights. The Middle East is in commotion, with the war extending to Lebanon and Israel vowing not to stop until it wipes Hamas and Hezbollah out. Iran has shown its willingness to confront Israel, framing itself as the watchdog of the Middle East against Israel’s aggression.

    You also witnessed the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, raising fears of extremist groups seizing power. Reports from the UN suggested that over 300,000 Syrian refugees fled to neighbouring countries by year-end, adding to the growing refugee crisis.

    But amid it all, you allowed some of my compatriots to think and look at things differently, to learn that hard work does not kill and bad governance is for a season. Despite the odds, small businesses grew by 7% in sectors like agriculture and technology, offering a glimmer of hope. Despite the increase in tariffs and persistent collapse of the national grid, there has been a marginal improvement in power output in homes and factories.

    The healthcare sector witnessed significant transformation in the past few months of 2024 because of incisive, superlative reforms and programmes. So far, 53,000 health workers have been re-trained—an impressive number—to deliver integrated, high-quality services. The Maternal and Newborn Mortality Reduction Initiative, which offers free caesarean sections to all eligible Nigerian women meeting the criteria, and the Nigeria Climate Change and Health Vulnerability and Adaptation (V&A) Assessment Report were launched. These initiatives represent a step forward in our healthcare system, offering hope for the future.

    Your successor, 2025, is shaping up to be quite the mixed bag — it’s like the year is expecting a baby, but no one knows if it’ll be a bundle of joy or a handful of trouble. Nigeria is trying really hard to stop putting all its eggs in the oil basket. There’s a lot of noise about agriculture, tech, and manufacturing stepping up. With this African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) getting more action, we might see Nigeria flexing as West Africa’s trade big brother.

    But let’s be honest — oil and gas aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. The Dangote Refinery finally kicking into gear might help us cut down on those expensive imported petroleum products. If it plays out right, that could mean fewer trade deficits and more jobs, which we desperately need. But you know how it is with oil — prices are like Lagos traffic, unpredictable and everywhere. Plus, the world’s moving towards greener energy, so we’ve got to figure out how to keep the money flowing long-term.

    Now, on the money front, I won’t sugarcoat it. Inflation and the exchange rate will probably keep dancing around, and not in a fun way. The Central Bank will try to keep things under control, but they’ll need serious foreign investment and more non-oil exports to make it work. The tech space is looking exciting, though. With all these young, sharp minds and everyone glued to their phones, Lagos and Abuja are becoming mini–Silicon Valley — fintech, e-commerce, aggrotech, you name it.

    Politically, Nigerians are still out here demanding real change. Anti-corruption will stay a hot topic — we’re all tired of the same old stories. There’s also this growing pressure for electoral reforms and better public services. Civil society is getting louder, and I’m here for it. But security? Whew. That’s going to be a big one. Between insurgency in the Northeast, banditry up North, and secessionist noise in the Southeast, the government has its hands full. It will take more than military action — they must dig into why these issues keep popping up.

    On top of that, some states are pushing harder for more control over their resources and policies. The whole decentralisation and restructuring debate might heat up. Meanwhile, you can bet politicians are already gearing up for 2027. Alliances will shift — it’s like watching chess, but with higher stakes.

    Look, Nigeria has its share of problems—inequality, environmental issues, governance struggles. But the potential? It’s huge. We’ve got the people and the energy, and if we can channel it right, the sky’s the limit.

    Here’s hoping 2025 is more of a blessing than a headache.

    As I look ahead to 2025, I do so with cautious optimism. While the road ahead remains uncertain, I am reminded that even in the darkest of times, resilience shines through. So, to everything we have passed through, thank you, 2024, for setting us free. 2025, if you’re reading, please be more liberal to us as a nation and as a people. May our leaders listen more and apply more wisdom. May 2025 usher in real  hope, stability, and progress for Nigeria and the world.

    Wishing Nigerians a happy, peaceful, and prosperous new year.

    DAP.

  • Still on state police – By Dakuku Peterside

    Still on state police – By Dakuku Peterside

    When a policy fails to factor in public response to its benefits and drawbacks, success takes the backseat. Ignoring public behaviour often results in poor implementation and unintended consequences. In Nigeria, a nation grappling with complex and diverse security challenges, the limitations of centralised policing have become glaringly evident.

    Rising crime rates, from terrorism and banditry to cybercrime and kidnapping, expose the inadequacies of the current federal system. The call for state police is not just a matter of political discourse; it is a necessary step toward securing the lives and property of Nigerians. This proposal has gained unprecedented traction across regional and political divides, signalling that the time is ripe for this crucial reform.

    The urgency of decentralising policing by introducing state police could provide the much-needed local focus to counter insecurity while fostering accountability and community trust. This vision aligns with global best practices and offers hope for a safer and more prosperous Nigeria, where localised and specialised law enforcement can effectively address the diverse security needs of the population.

    Throughout history, nations have recognised the need for adaptable and localised law enforcement structures. In the early 20th century, the United States established state police forces to address rising crime and extend law enforcement beyond the capabilities of local authorities. The Pennsylvania State Police, formed in 1905, became the first uniformed state law enforcement agency in the U.S., designed to handle challenges that local sheriffs and municipal officers could not adequately address.

    This included labour unrest in coal mines and maintaining order in rural areas without sufficient local law enforcement. Over time, state police forces such as the Texas Rangers and California Highway Patrol expanded their scope, dealing with issues from highway safety to organised crime. These forces were pivotal in ensuring law enforcement matched the complexities of an industrialising and urbanising society.

    The U.S. experience provides a critical lesson for Nigeria: decentralisation enhances law enforcement’s ability to respond to local needs. For instance, during the Prohibition era, state police units were instrumental in curbing illicit alcohol trade in their jurisdictions, a task federal authorities alone needed help to handle effectively.

    Similarly, the adaptability of state police allowed them to pioneer specialised units, such as cybercrime task forces in recent decades, which have become crucial in tackling modern criminal activities. Nigeria’s security challenges, including insurgencies in the North and urban crimes in Lagos and Abuja, could greatly benefit from similar localised and specialised approaches.

    For instance, a state police unit in Lagos could prioritise urban crimes such as theft and traffic-related offences, while a unit in Borno might focus on counterterrorism efforts against Boko Haram insurgents. This targeted approach could lead to more effective solutions than a one-size-fits-all federal system.

    Globally, decentralised policing systems offer valuable lessons. Countries like Canada, India, and South Africa demonstrate how local accountability and responsiveness enhance security. Canada’s provincial police forces work collaboratively with municipal and federal agencies to address diverse security needs. In India, state police forces are indispensable in combating localised crimes and maintaining law and order, especially in states with unique cultural and geographical contexts.

    For example, Maharashtra’s state police in India have implemented technology-driven initiatives to combat cybercrime, which would be impossible under a rigid centralised system. These systems are bolstered by robust oversight mechanisms to prevent misuse, ensuring their effectiveness and integrity. Nigeria can draw inspiration from these examples, adapting these practices to suit its unique challenges. This global perspective further strengthens the argument for the state police proposal in Nigeria.

    The current structure of Nigeria’s federal police reveals its limitations. With approximately 370,000 officers, the police-citizen ratio is about 1:650, significantly higher than the UN-recommended ratio of 1:450. This shortfall is glaring in a nation of over 220 million people, where security challenges vary dramatically across geopolitical zones.

    The Inspector-General of Police has highlighted the need for an additional 190,000 personnel, yet estimates suggest that Nigeria requires up to 2.5 million officers for effective policing. Over the past decade, crime rates have surged by over 30%, with kidnapping, banditry, terrorism, and cybercrime becoming increasingly sophisticated and prevalent. In 2022 alone, there were over 3,500 reported kidnapping incidents nationwide, underlining the urgent need for localised and agile policing responses. The introduction of state police could help address this issue by allowing for a more targeted allocation of resources based on regional security needs, potentially improving the police-citizen ratio and overall security.

    Support for state police has grown significantly among policymakers, security experts, and civil society groups. A growing consensus is that decentralising policing would empower local authorities and enhance operational efficiency. Even state governors from historically divided northern and southern regions have united in supporting state police. One significant highlight of the 147th National Economic Council(NEC) is a new consensus by all state governments on establishing state police. However, this initiative requires a more robust but speedy engagement to align it with the local cultural context, ensuring that it is appreciated and supported by the citizens it aims to serve. Citizen engagement is not just a formality, but a crucial step to ensure public understanding and support for the state police proposal.

    Building trust between state police and local communities is a crucial advantage of this reform. Effective local policing initiatives can foster relationships that build trust and cooperation, especially in Nigeria, where the trust deficit is high. Trust is an essential component of crime fighting. Innovative local community-police liaison arrangements and other community-focused programs can strengthen these ties, creating an environment of mutual respect and collaboration. When police officers understand their communities’ cultural and societal dynamics, they are better equipped to address security challenges and maintain peace. The active participation and trust of the Nigerian public in this reform process are crucial for its success.

    Concerns about the potential misuse of state police for political purposes are valid but can be systematically addressed. Abuse of State Independent Electoral Commissions ( SIEC) by state governors is often cited. This is another reason why extensive and targeted citizen engagement is key before putting the law in place. Safeguards must be designed and implemented to prevent governors from exploiting state police for political and electoral manipulation purposes, personal gain, or to feed their authoritarian appetite.

    Laws prohibiting state police involvement in electoral matters and empowering oversight bodies can ensure neutrality. Clear delineation of the roles and responsibilities of state and federal police will also be essential to avoid jurisdictional conflicts. Establishing a framework for collaboration and information-sharing between the two levels of law enforcement will further enhance effectiveness. However, these measures will require careful planning and execution to ensure their efficacy and address potential challenges such as resistance to change and extensive training and capacity building.

    Independent regulatory bodies are critical to ensuring accountability and preventing abuse. A State Police Security Commission (SPSC), comprising representatives from civil society, established professional bodies, legal experts, and public security professionals, could oversee state police operations. Regular audits and public reporting ensure transparency.

    Additionally, a robust judiciary is essential to protect citizens from potential abuses. Judicial reforms that enhance the independence and efficiency of courts would be vital in supporting this transition. For instance, in Canada, provincial ombudspersons have played pivotal roles in monitoring police misconduct, providing Nigeria with a possible blueprint for ensuring accountability.

    Strengthening relationships between police and communities through genuine engagement and collaborative problem-solving must remain a priority. Establishing community advisory boards can provide platforms for dialogue and accountability. Actionable trust-building initiatives, such as open-door policies and  periodic town hall meetings, should replace superficial slogans like “Police is your friend.”

    Addressing insecurity also requires holistic solutions. Investments in education, healthcare, and youth empowerment are essential for tackling the root causes of crime. Integrating vocational training and social services into crime prevention strategies would complement policing reforms, creating a foundation for sustainable security. For example, a similar approach in India’s Kerala state led to a 40% reduction in youth crime over a decade.

    Introducing state police in Nigeria represents a transformative opportunity to address the nation’s security crisis. While challenges are inevitable, they should not deter progress. Beginning the decentralisation process will allow for the identification and resolution of potential issues as they arise. The widespread consensus around reforming Nigeria’s policing architecture underscores the urgency of this change. With proper safeguards, political will, and public support, state police can become a cornerstone of a more secure, equitable, and prosperous Nigeria.

    A prerequisite is the government’s robust public engagement and orientation programme to get the complete buy-in of all stakeholders, including the National Assembly, the state assembly and the masses. The time to act is now, and this reform must be embraced as a step toward a brighter and safer future for all Nigerians. Establishing state police would signify a shift in policy and a bold reimagining of Nigeria’s approach to security—one that prioritises the people, respects regional diversity, and lays the foundation for sustainable peace and progress.

  • Ghana on my mind – By Dakuku Peterside

    Ghana on my mind – By Dakuku Peterside

    In the heart of West Africa, where the echoes of drums narrate ancient tales of resilience, hope, and ambition, one nation rises as a luminous star in the ever-changing tapestry of democracy—Ghana. Its journey, marked by scars of struggle, is a testament to the resilience and determination of its people. Ghana’s democracy, like a river, carves its path through a region often engulfed by the shadows of political instability, offering more than just a model; it offers hope—a flickering yet determined flame that illuminates a region yearning for transformation.

    For Nigeria, the region’s largest democracy, this light is both an invitation and a challenge. Despite its size, wealth, and influence, Nigeria struggles under the weight of its unrealised potential, grappling with systemic failures that have weakened its institutions and tested the faith of its people. Ghana’s journey is not just an inspiration for its neighbours; it is a call to action—a reminder that democracy is not a static state but a dynamic process that demands vigilance, sacrifice, and a relentless pursuit of the common good. Ghana’s story is not merely a narrative of governance; it is a powerful song of possibilities, a melody of what can be achieved when people and institutions unite to uphold the principles of justice, equality, and peace. It is a message to Nigeria and allWest Africa: the future belongs to those who dare to shape it.

    Although fraught with multiple democratic missteps, Ghana towers above its neighbours in upholding the democratic tenet of free and fair elections, with little incidence of intimidation, vote buying, box snatching, political thuggery and official manipulations of electoral outcomes that are common in Nigeria’s electoral history. Besides the militarism and coup de tat that is sweeping across West Africa, it is not touching Ghana where, although with its many challenges, the people have adopted democracy as their ultimate form of government and are doing everything possible to deepen and consolidate the democratic gains.

    At the heart of Ghana’s democratic strength lies its commitment to fostering political accountability and citizen engagement. Unlike many West African nations where power often oscillates between authoritarian rule and fragile democratic experiments, Ghana has maintained a steady course of civilian governance for decades. Since its return to multiparty democracy in 1992, Ghana has conducted eight successful general elections, with peaceful transitions of power occurring between rival political parties. For instance, in 2001, Ghana witnessed a historic moment when power peacefully transitioned from the National Democratic Congress (NDC) to the New Patriotic Party (NPP), setting a standard for political civility. 2009, this tradition continued as the NPP handed power back to the NDC after a closely contested election. These transitions contrast sharply with Nigeria, where political transitions have often been marred by allegations of electoral fraud, violence, and post-election litigation that weaken public trust in the democratic process.

    Nigeria can draw significant lessons from Ghana’s ability to ensure smooth transitions of power. The peaceful handover of leadership in Ghana has been underpinned by the independence of its Electoral Commission (EC). Ghana’s EC has consistently exhibited professionalism, transparency, and impartiality, earning the confidence of both political parties and the electorate. By contrast, Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has faced numerous allegations of bias and logistical challenges, often leading to disputed results and eroded trust. For example, during Nigeria’s 2019 general elections, reports of logistical delays and allegations of vote-buying cast a shadow over the process. Nigeria must strengthen INEC’s independence, provide adequate resources, and ensure that it operates free from political interference. Adopting Ghana’s approach to technological innovation, such as biometric voter registration and real-time results tracking, could also enhance transparency and reduce electoral fraud in Nigeria.

    Ghanaians’ active engagement in the democratic process is another area where Nigeria could learn valuable lessons. Ghana boasts consistently high voter turnout rates, frequently exceeding 70%, as seen in the 2020 elections, where turnout reached 79%. This contrasts with Nigeria, where voter turnout has steadily declined, hitting a record low of 35% in the 2019 elections. The difference stems from Ghana’s emphasis on political awareness and education, which has cultivated an electorate that values its role in governance. Nigeria must urgently invest in civic education to enlighten citizens about their rights and responsibilities in a democracy. Such initiatives would boost voter participation and foster public officials’ accountability, as an informed electorate demands transparency and results.

    Leadership plays a pivotal role in the evolution of democracy, and Ghana’s political history offers significant insights in this regard. Leaders like Jerry John Rawlings demonstrated a successful transition from authoritarianism to democracy, emphasizing moral governance and economic reform. While Nigeria has also made the transition from military rule to civilian governance, the quality of leadership has often been questioned, with allegations of corruption and self-serving policies taking precedence over national interests. Ghana’s relatively high level of political accountability can be attributed to the integrity of its leaders and their commitment to strengthening institutions rather than personalizing power. Nigeria could greatly benefit from prioritizing the election of leaders who value national development over individual gain, thereby fostering a culture of service and responsibility.

    Education has been a cornerstone of Ghana’s democratic success, and it offers a model for Nigeria to invest in political and public administration education. According to the Ghana Statistical Service, the country’s political elite are notably well-educated, with over 60% holding tertiary degrees. This high level of education has translated into slightly better-informed policymaking and effective governance. In contrast, Nigeria’s political class has been criticized for lacking the requisite skills and educational background to address the complex governance challenges. By investing in education, particularly in political and public administration, Nigeria could prepare future leaders for the demands of public office. Ghana’s Free Senior High School policy, which has expanded access to education for thousands of students, provides a model that Nigeria could adapt to improve its human capital and strengthen its democratic institutions over the long term.

    The role of Ghana’s Electoral Commission in ensuring credible elections provides another lesson for Nigeria. Ghana’s EC operates with high independence, overseeing the electoral process with transparency and professionalism. This starkly contrasts Nigeria, where INEC has often faced accusations of partiality and inefficiency. Nigeria must empower INEC to function autonomously to address these issues, with sufficient funding and legal protections against political interference. Additionally, Ghana’s adoption of technology, such as biometric voter registration and electronic transmission of results, has reduced incidents of electoral fraud and increased public confidence. Nigeria’s gradual adoption of such innovations is a step in the right direction, but it must ensure full implementation and proper oversight to achieve similar success.

    Ghana’s vibrant political culture, characterised by constructive opposition and peaceful political rivalry, contrasts with Nigeria’s divisive and contentious political landscape. In Ghana, the ruling and opposition parties engage in policy debates that enrich the democratic process. Nigeria, however, has struggled with political violence and antagonism that undermine governance and stability. Encouraging issue-based politics and promoting dialogue between political parties could help Nigeria replicate Ghana’s inclusive and cooperative political environment.

    In this last 2024 general election, voters turnout was encouraging and the election was fairly peaceful considering African election standards. There are isolated cases of ballot box snatching, and a confirmed case of one person was shot in Kasoa Zongo, located in the Awutu Senya East Constituency. that resulted in the death of a man, and accusations of low level interference by the government in power. However, ECOWAS observation mission and other election observation agencies have stated that the election was peaceful and credible. There are strong indications that the opposition party, NDC,  may win the presidential election. This will be good for democracy in Ghana. The handing over of power from the ruling party to the opposition party demonstrates the maturing of Ghana’s democracy and indicates that the will of the people reigns supreme and is not subverted.

    As the sun sets over the vibrant lands of West Africa, casting long shadows over bustling cities and quiet villages alike, Ghana stands tall—a lighthouse amid turbulent seas, a radiant beacon of democracy and hope. Its path has not been without trials, yet each challenge overcome has added strength to its foundation and brilliance to its light. Ghana’s story is a powerful reminder that democracy when nurtured with care, courage, and integrity, can endure against all odds. It is a testament to the transformative power of engaged citizens and enlightened leadership, showing that even in the most challenging circumstances, progress is not only possible but inevitable when people’s will prevails.

    For Nigeria, whose vastness carries both the burden of its challenges and the weight of its promise, Ghana’s example is more than a model; it is a lifeline, a whisper of hope urging the giant to awaken, reflect, and reclaim its rightful place as a leader in Africa’s democratic renaissance. Nigeria has the resources, the people, and the potential to rival and surpass the success of Ghana, but it must first learn the lessons of vigilance, accountability, and the power of an informed electorate. Ghana’s journey offers a blueprint for navigating the storms of instability and creating a legacy of stability and progress.

    In Ghana’s steady progress lies a profound truth: democracy is not a gift bestowed by chance or luck,but a destiny earned through sacrifice, unity, and determination. The heartbeat of Ghana’s democratic evolution reverberates across the continent, calling out to nations like Nigeria to rise above their struggles and embrace the transformative power of governance that truly serves the people. In this shared journey toward a brighter future, Ghana reminds us that where there is will, there is an unyielding way, and where there is hope, there lies the promise of renewal and greatness.

  • Kukah on accidental leadership – By Dakuku Peterside

    Kukah on accidental leadership – By Dakuku Peterside

    In reflecting on Nigeria’s leadership journey, Bishop Matthew Kukah, a Catholic priest, activist, and philosopher, delivers a searing observation: “Almost every leader who came to power did so by accident.” With these words, he stirred an hornets’ nest, igniting a spirited discourse on the nation’s perennial struggle with leadership.

    Kukah’s critique strikes a resonant chord with voices like former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who has long lamented the opportunistic nature of Nigeria’s leadership selection. It also echoes the trenchant wisdom of Chinua Achebe, who famously diagnosed the nation’s ailment in The Trouble with Nigeria: “The trouble with Nigeria is simply and squarely a failure of leadership.” Achebe’s words, though decades old, still carry the weight of an unheeded warning, underscoring the cyclical nature of Nigeria’s governance woes.

    This column seeks to interrogate Kukah’s provocative theory, dissect its implications for governance, and chart pathways to reform the nation’s leadership recruitment process. At the core of this analysis lies an urgent imperative: to confront the systemic failures that perpetuate unprepared leaders and to cultivate mechanisms that nurture visionary and capable stewards. For Nigeria to transcend the quagmire of accidental leadership, the nation must embrace deliberate, transformative change—one that prioritises competency, character, and a clear sense of purpose over happenstance.

    A shared understanding of an accidental leader would be helpful in the interrogation of what the bishop said. An accidental leader, from base understanding, is one who came to the office without requisite training or necessary preparation. It refers to a scenario where individuals ascend to power without adequate preparation, experience, or strategic vision. This phenomenon is not unique to Nigeria but is particularly pervasive in its political landscape, where political actors often emerge through circumstantial opportunities rather than deliberate grooming or merit-based processes.

    These leaders frequently lack the fundamental skills necessary for effective governance, resulting in poor decision-making, reliance on narrow circles of influence, and an inability to address critical national challenges. For instance, between 1999 and 2023 under the present democratic era, Nigeria experienced significant challenges under leaders like Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, who, despite his integrity, struggled with health issues that hindered governance, and Goodluck Jonathan, who admitted he was unprepared when he unexpectedly became President following Yar’Adua’s death. Same goes for President Buhari.

    Accidental leaders differ significantly from prepared leaders in several ways. They often lack a clear vision, operate without a coherent strategy or strategic plan, and struggle with effective execution. Their knowledge is limited, they are indecisive, and they rarely take responsibility for their actions. These leaders typically have a narrow circle of influence, and dishonesty can further undermine their leadership. In the specific context of Nigeria, unprepared leaders tend to exhibit unpatriotic and nepotistic tendencies. Their shallow understanding of the nation’s challenges often leads to misguided solutions to critical developmental issues.

    Governance under such circumstances often results in short-term thinking, nepotism, and an indifference to the broader national interest. These outcomes are reflected in Nigeria’s inability to meet key development indicators. For example, as of 2024, over 40% of the population lives below the poverty line, and unemployment hovers at 33.3%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. These figures are further compounded by insecurity, with over 10,000 people reported killed in banditry and insurgency-related violence annually in recent years. Such statistics reveal the broader implications of accidental leadership: leaders unprepared for the demands of office often fail to tackle systemic issues or establish the conditions necessary for sustained national growth. This not only hampers economic development but also undermines social cohesion and national unity, perpetuating a cycle of underdevelopment and instability.

    By contrast, prepared leaders with prior exposure to governance, leadership roles, or structured mentorship are equipped with clear goals, strategic vision, and the capacity for effective policy execution. These leaders inspire confidence and focus on long-term national development, offering a beacon of hope for the country’s future. Examining global leadership recruitment systems highlights the importance of grooming leaders systematically. For example, the United Kingdom’s parliamentary system emphasizes years of experience in lower offices, enabling figures like Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair to rise with proven credentials and a record of policy achievements.

    Similarly, Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew transformed his country from a struggling island to a global hub through decades of planning and visionary leadership. In China, the Communist Party systematically grooms leaders over decades, requiring them to serve in various regional and national roles before ascending to top positions. Xi Jinping, for instance, served in provincial leadership for years, gaining experience in administration, policy formulation, and implementation before becoming president. These systems contrast starkly with Nigeria’s, where party loyalty and opportunism often outweigh competence.

    In Nigeria, the historical trajectory of leadership since 1999 reveals a pattern of accidental leaders propelled to power by chance, opportunism, or external influence. The result has been inconsistent policies, failure to diversify the economy, and an inability to tackle pressing issues such as unemployment and insecurity. President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration (2015–2023) is a case in point: while his initial election was greeted with optimism, delays in forming a cabinet and a lack of clear economic direction in the early years of his presidency hindered his administration’s ability to tackle pressing issues.

    At the state level, governance mirrors this trend. Many governors have been criticised for prioritizing political survival over developmental goals, exacerbating local challenges. These failures manifest in poor policy formulation, resource mismanagement, misplaced priorities and a lack of continuity in governance.

    Prepared leaders globally, such as Mahatma Gandhi, Lee Kuan Yew, and Nelson Mandela, exemplify how strategic preparation, mentorship, and clear vision can transform nations. Gandhi’s nonviolent resistance and vision for a unified India, Yew’s emphasis on meritocracy and strategic governance that turned Singapore into an economic powerhouse, and Mandela’s post-apartheid leadership that emphasized reconciliation and institution-building, creating a framework for South Africa’s fragile democracy, are all powerful examples.

    Joe Biden’s decades of experience in U.S. politics prepared him to handle complex governance challenges, including navigating the post-COVID-19 pandemic economic recovery. Conversely, accidental leaders often produce short-lived policies, foster corruption, and exacerbate socio-economic instability. Haiti, for instance, has suffered from a cycle of accidental leadership, perpetuating political instability and underdevelopment. These global examples underscore the need for Nigeria to systematically groom leaders who can navigate complex governance challenges and build long-term resilience.

    The leadership crisis in Nigeria is rooted in systemic and structural issues. Party structures prioritize loyalty over competence, and electoral processes often reward popularity rather than merit. In the 2023 elections, many elected officials were chosen based on party endorsements rather than competence, independent credibility or a track record of public service.

    Weak institutions further fail to hold leaders accountable, and divisive ethnic and religious politics prioritize sectional interests over national unity. These factors are compounded by public apathy: a 2023 survey by Afrobarometer revealed that only 34% of Nigerians believe their votes influence governance outcomes, highlighting a lack of faith in the political system. This disconnection fosters a cycle where citizens disengage from political processes, reducing accountability and enabling the emergence of incompetent leaders.

    It is established that there exists a strong correlation between leadership preparation and performance. Going by this measure, it is not in dispute that most of our elected and appointed leaders have not performed in office. How can we improve the quality and preparedness of those who attain public office? This should be our preoccupation for now. Does Nigeria have trained or prepared leaders? Where and when do leaders train for their role?  Are they motivated? These questions merit serious consideration.

    To address these challenges and create a system that produces prepared leaders, leadership training and development must become institutional priorities. Establishing leadership academies, such as the proposed National Institute for Leadership Development, could help build competence.

    Incorporating leadership education into school curricula and creating mentorship programs can also build a pipeline of skilled leaders. Institutional reforms are critical, including strengthening electoral integrity to prioritise merit-based selection and enhancing transparency mechanisms to evaluate leaders’ preparedness and performance. For instance, adopting a primary debate system like those in the U.S. could help assess candidates’ policy depth. Citizen engagement is equally vital; educating the public on the importance of leadership quality and encouraging active participation in political processes can drive demand for visionary leadership.

    The debate on whether leadership is an innate or a skill that can be learned underscores the importance of structured training. While some argue that leadership is a natural trait, examples from global systems such as Singapore and China’s meritocratic model, and Britain’s parliamentary system suggest that systematic preparation enhances governance effectiveness. In Nigeria, most leaders lack innate qualities and formal training, perpetuating systemic failures. Developing platforms for systematic leadership grooming, such as state-level training programs for young politicians, is essential.

    Bishop Kukah’s assertion about accidental leadership underscores a fundamental issue in Nigeria’s governance: the prevalence of leaders emerging from flawed recruitment processes that favour expediency over competence. This phenomenon has entrenched systemic challenges, as unprepared leadership often leads to poor governance. By contrast, global examples illustrate the transformative impact of well-prepared leaders. For Nigeria to progress, it must prioritise leadership development, reform political structures to value competence, and actively involve citizens in cultivating visionary leaders. Addressing this leadership vacuum is essential for the country to realise its full potential.