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  • Defend yourself and its possible repercussions 1 – Dele Sobowale

    Defend yourself and its possible repercussions 1 – Dele Sobowale

    “Allow an intolerable situation to go on for too long; and, suddenly, there are no good options left.” Arthur Burns, 1904-1987.

    Arthur Burns was the tenth Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank, equivalent to our Governor of Central Bank, under President Richard Nixon. He was appointed at a time the US economy was going through a recession after years of expansion. Tough decisions, destined to be unpopular, were required. The late economist made those remarks as he was stepping into office. But, Burns’ statement can be applied to several non-economic situations. Some of us have known or heard of the person who was advised by doctors to have a toe amputated; and who refused bluntly. Then, he was asked to get the foot amputated; as the condition got worse. Eventually, it was a choice between his entire leg being removed or losing his life. Tough choice; but self-induced.

    Nigeria is facing one of the most difficult choices we have ever confronted with the instruction by some state governors to their citizens to “defend yourself”. At the very least; it is an invitation to anarchy. That judgment is not mine alone. In fact, it was passed on to me by US Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis,1856-1941, who in 1928 made the point that when government becomes openly ineffective and unjust “it breeds contempt for law; it invites everyman to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy.” The Federal Government of Nigeria has now become perceived, even by those who should be its natural allies and supporters, as ineffective and unjust.

    Until recently, Governors Darius of Taraba and Ortom of Benue states were lone voices in the wilderness when they instructed their people to “defend yourself”. The latest three – Governor Maisari of Katsina State, Matawelle of Zamfara and El-Rufai of Kaduna – would have been the last anybody would expect to join in that campaign. Now, they are leading it. Their three states already form Nigeria’s equivalent of the Bermuda triangle; everybody entering there risks being kidnapped, killed or captured for ransom. Katsina, if anybody needs reminding, is the President’s own state.

    Strengthening the drift to chaos are the implicationsof the call, shared by other governors nationwide – total loss of confidence. None of them believes that Buhari’s government can protect them anymore. And, since they lack any means of securing the lives of the people and their properties, they have turned the task over to the people themselves. Increasingly, the President is becoming a leader without followers. When the matter is security, most Nigerians now despise him. That was not what people expected when they elected a tough-talking ex-General to office in 2019. There are other consequences of this letdown.

    YOU CAN’T GO HOME ANYMORE SIR – WITHOUT A BATTALION.

    “As you make your bed, so you will lie in it.” Old adage.

    Mr Udoh, God bless him, my favourite teacher of all time, drummed that adage and others into our heads in Primary Four at St Peters School, Ajele, Lagos Island – with interpretations. I can never forget it.Your bed is frequently at your permanent home. All the others – hotel rooms, official quarters, barracks, Aso Rock – are temporary abodes. A day will come when you will have the front door slammed in your face. President Buhari is gradually getting close to that day when he will need permission to enter Aso Rock. He will probably head for Daura. Although he has not asked me, I will still offer him free advice. Despite his monumental mistakes, I wish him the best after life inside the Rock.

    This, however, is not the first time I would show concern for a President nearing the end of his temporary stay in the Rock. In April 2015, after former President Jonathan had conceded defeat; he had told reporters of his plan to return home to Otuoke, Bayelsa. I was curious to find out where our out-going leader was going. I went to the place and wrote an article titled “Jonathan’s Long Trip Back To Otuoke”. I could go to Otuoke because, despite some level of insecurity, it was still safe to go there.

    Unless things change drastically for the better, only someone bent on committing suicide will go to Daura — Buhari’s permanent home. But, there is a contingency plan which makes it possible for me to know the situation in Daura. My ten years of living and working in various parts of the North made it possible to build a network of friends everywhere. From those in Funtua, Dutsin Ma, Katsina, and Jibiya, I have a good idea of the situation in Daura.

    When Buhari left in May 2015 to resume work as President, Katsina State was one of the most peaceful in Nigeria. Fences around properties in GRA areas were low; and one Maigadi was sufficient to secure the biggest mansion. Nobody ever heard the word BANDIT. Today, bandits share power with the Governor; who recently ordered the people to “defend yourself”. The highest fence, with barbed wire, no longer deters the bandits. This is the situation in Daura where Buhari will lay, or attempt to lay his head in peace after he departs from the Rock.

    My advice to him is: Your Excellency, please don’t go; unless the National Assembly will pass a bill authorising the deployment of a battalion to guard you. If not, for everybody’s sake, please stay in Abuja. Daura, under your watch as President, has become one of the most dangerous places on earth. And, those mean sons of wagons, called bandits, can only regard kidnapping you as another great meal ticket. Ask Governor Maisari if you don’t believe me. That is the bed made by incompetence, procrastination when making necessary changes and executing badly. Millions of people in Katsina will suffer for decades on account of having their son as President of Nigeria for eight years. So will the rest of us.

    THE CURE MIGHT BE WORSE THAN THE DISEASE

    “A weapon is defensive or offensive depending on which end is pointing at you.”

    Premier Aristide Briande, 1862-1932, VBQ p 271.

    Every time I am in a group discussing the insecurity in Nigeria, somebody must eventually remind all of us that some Governors have asked Nigerians to defend themselves. I smile; because no prescription for curing a serious ailment can at the same time be more deadly if misapplied. Bandits will be killed; but, innocent people will also get murdered. When bandits are not recognisable, until they strike, it is safer to strike first and ask questions later. And, since the dead don’t talk, every corpse becomes that of a terrorist – even if an innocent person who walked into the community. Even a neighbour, with who one had a quarrel, might be murdered in the night; and the murderer would in the morning point to a “bandit” he ambushed and eliminated. Who will investigate?

    The leading terrorist group against which the rest of us must defend ourselves are the ever-present herdsmen. They are visible everywhere, night and day. If all other Nigerians take the order to defend themselves at face value, then any herdsmen seen anywhere where grazing has been outlawed should be regarded as target for self-defence. The herdsmen, usually armed, will also act in self-defence, but soon there will be few herdsmen alive. One fellow announced a solution during one discussion. “If you can’t get the herder, then annihilate the herd”. Again, that is a recipe for genocide on a scale unprecedented in this country. Not even during the Civil War, 1967-1970, were so many innocents massacred as we will experience once self-defence becomes accepted as the solution. It is one calamity Buhari should pray does not occur – as the Life Patron of Mayetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria. His insistence on reviving imaginary grazing routes is already provoking that sort of reaction. It will amount to a civil war within a civil war if it gets underway….

    To be continued

    NEXT LEVEL IS PURE ANARCHY

    “The Katsina State Government has cancelled all activities lined up for the inauguration ceremony of the new administration in the state.”

    PUNCH, May 24, 2019, p 2.

    The government gave its reasons. “The decision on a low-key celebration was taken following the unfortunate incessant attacks by bandits in some areas of the state which led to the death of many people and left several others injured or homeless.” Katsina, it needs to be repeated, is Buhari’s own state. Unless charity no longer begins at home, we have the scary scenario of a leader who cannot defend his own home assuring the rest of us of our safety. Anarchy is here. When Buhari is sworn in on May 29, 2019 for his second term (which cannot end soon enough for me) his state would have been on record for posterity as the first state to succumb to the dictates of hoodlums – now called bandits. When, a few weeks ago, the article FROM BEGGING TO BANDITRY: REVOLT OF THE ALMAJIRIS was published, a lot of things were deliberately omitted from the facts presented in order not to frighten too many Fellow Nigerians – especially those who we were told provided Buhari’s winning margin. Katsina was one of them. Close to ninety-eight per cent of the voters there voted for their “Baba”. I have bad news for them. A Baba is supposed to take good care of his kids in any society. Otherwise he is unworthy to be called “Father”. The government’s submission to the will of bandits – formerly almajiris – is the beginning of more state surrender of power to unelected governments called warlords controlling certain areas of the state. Let me cite another one.

    Unknown to Nigerians and perhaps also unknown to their Baba, the criminals have already CHANGED the annual farming calendar in the state. Hitherto, farmers, mostly women, start as early as the end of harmatan to prepare the land for a new year. This year, not only in Katsina but in all the states of the North, the bandits have already driven millions of subsistent farmers off the land. A woman, stupid or crazy enough, to go to the farm alone, as in the past, would be fortunate if all she suffers is rape. She might disappear; as many have done. Thereafter, the farm lies fallow. So, the bandits of Katsina have already decreed inescapable mass starvation as the year progresses. Anarchy is here.

    P.S. This article on anarchy was first published in 2019. Since then things have gone from bad to worse; the worst is yet to come when the races for election heat up the polity. Meanwhile, read what happened when a US-based Nigerian came home to bury his mother.

    RETURN OF THE NATIVE SON

    “Dele, this is pure anarchy you guys have here in Nigeria. If I didn’t come and see things for myself, I would have thought the media was exaggerating things.

    A Nigerian-American friend came home for the burial of his mother. He has been buying and reading three newspapers a day – VANGUARD, PUNCH and DAILY INDEPENDENT – based on my recommendation.

    After, three weeks in Delta State and reading our papers everyday, that was his verdict. He never plans to return.

  • Babangida at 80 celebrations are in order (3) – Dele Sobowale

    Babangida at 80 celebrations are in order (3) – Dele Sobowale

    Dele Sobowale

    “Nor should we listen to those who say “the voice of the people is the voice of God”; for the turbulence of the mob is always close to insanity.”

    Alcuin, 735-804.

    Since coming across that statement by Alcuin, more than fifty years ago, I have dropped from my writings the assertion that “the voice of the people is the voice of God” – even if it is the most popular view, and I agree with it. That attitude has been carried to writing columns for newspapers and online publications. I write what, to me, is the best position to take in any situation – irrespective of whether it is popular or not. It is never passed on as “the voice of the people” – not to talk of God. Thus, I am frequently amused when my co-columnists, taking themselves more seriously than we should, assume that we speak for the people and God as well.

    Which people? Columnists are the largest group of un-elected and self-opinionated event manipulators on earth. The main difference between us and others is that some of us undertake some research before we write. Most hide pure sentimental opinion under fine words; and present it as “truth”. Quite a lot of times, we are deliberately very selective about the “facts” presented. Despite that, some still deliberately offer falsehood to the public.

    Frequently, sectional, ethnic self-interest is being promoted as national interest. I was therefore not surprised that after IBB’s interview with ARISE TV, my brothers in the South West, have focussed on only June 12 for comment – as if the entire interview was about that topic. To read what some of them have been writing, IBB uttered no sentence that was not false. That is Nigerian journalism.

    A national newspaper packed full with former CONCORD staff, and whose boss had been told to stay out of the 2023 presidential race, had exhibited the group-think mentality of children. Like a pack of wild dogs in the African Safariland, they have sparred no day savaging Babangida. I was in Abuja and Minna for two days each; and I bought the paper to find out if one of their columnists would surprise me and write something different. No such luck. This is gang journalism; nobody is permitted to think differently. Incidentally, the paper and its columnists hardly impress anyone in Niger State. Here in VANGUARD others, mostly my brothers, have joined in the group media assault. But, here I can write my dissenting view. That is the difference.

    Take for instance the Structural Adjustment Programme, SAP, and ask any Editor of a major newspaper if Babangida accepted the $2 billion loan offered by the International Monetary Fund, IMF, and that resulted in devaluation of the Naira. And, the answer will be “Yes”. Unfortunately, that is a lie; and one of the biggest and longest enduring lies which the mostly Lagos-Ibadan media had foisted on Nigerians. I will partly excuse the Editors too young to know what happened in 1986. Most of the new Editors were probably still in the universities 35 years ago. They inherited the lie from their biased predecessors. But, they also have the responsibility to educate themselves to avoid purveying fake news.

    So, in order to at least set on record straight, I secured an interview with Babangida for our Deputy Editor in Abuja. Among the questions asked was whether he accepted the IMF loan. Wait for the answer on August 17. But, don’t expect my brothers in Lagos/Ibadan to change their minds until their dying day.

    As far as I am concerned IBB made only one error with respect to SAP. He listened to “the voice of the people” – meaning the Nigerian Labour Congress, the Socialists and the media at the time. Nigeria’s SAP failed, unlike those implemented by the Asian Tigers, because we forced our government to deviate significantly from the original economic prescription. Fuel subsidy, for instance, was still retained; so was multiple exchange rate – in order to pacify the bedlam promoted as “the voice of the people.” Sabotage by the pillars of Nigerian society at the time, including round-tripping by banks and over-invoicing by the Organised Private Sector, OPS, savaged the programme in a way unique to Nigeria. Banned products were openly displayed in our markets. Nobody would dare present for sale prohibited goods in Lee Kwan Yew’s Singapore. That was why they succeeded and we failed with SAP. Enough of the nonsense we publish on SAP.

    WHAT IBB DID APART FROM JUNE 12

    “He gave it for his opinion that whoever could make two ears of corn or two blades of grass to grow upon a spot of ground where only one grew before, would deserve better of mankind and do more essential service than the whole race of politicians put together”. Jonathan Swift, 1667-1745.

    Babangida’s administration built more dams, constructed more rural roads to promote agriculture. The Directorate of Food, Road and Rural Infrastructure, DFRRI, was the most comprehensive attempt by any government to ensure Nigeria achieved sustainable food security. Space will not allow me to go further on that.

    To accompany the effort on food production, his government also embarked on the National Water Rehabilitation Programme aied at upgrading all the states water stations and position them to serve a rapidly expanding population. Again, I cannot now elaborate. He touched our lives in several other ways. Below are some of the Decrees passed by the Babangida administration which the June 12 merchants will not want you to know about; because it will destroy their attempt to reduce eight years of meritorious service to one event. The list under each category is only indicative, not exhaustive of what was achieved.

    • Business and Economy.
    1. Securities and Exchange Commission Decree 29, 1988.
    2. Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation, 1988
    3. National Directorate of Employment, D 24, 1989.
    4. Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission, Decree 49, 1989.
    5. Company and Allied Matters Act, Decree 20, 1990
    6. Central Bank of Nigeria Decree 24, 1991
    7. Nigeria Export Processing Zone, Decree 34, 1991
    8. NLNG (FIGA, Decree 39, 1990
    • Institutions
    1. Medical and Dental Practitioners Decree 23, 1988
    2. National Primary Education Commission etc Decree 31, 1988
    3. Federal Road Safety Corps Decree 45, 1988
    4. Nigerian Institute of Public Relations Practitioners, Decree 16, 1990.
    5. Banks and Other Financial Institutions, Decree 25, 1991
    6. National Institute for Sports Decree 31, 1992
    7. Chartered Institute of Taxation Decree 76, 1992
    I read every one of the decrees passed in those eight years in order to educate our readers on each of them instead of flogging the dead horse of June 12 as most of my colleagues in the media choose to do. They might not realise it, but all they are doing amounts to “serving the same stale stew; warmed up; and served in new plates”. They offer their opinions, but at the heart of journalism are facts. As former US Senator Daniel Moynihan has reminded all of us “You are entitled to your own opinions; you are not entitled to your facts.” I am celebrating IBB because of his everlasting foot prints on the sands of our national history as can be verified by going to the National Library or Ministry of Justice Library.

    No matter what others may say, while sounding like a bunch of broken records, I will for ever express gratitude to the creator of the FRSC whose officers saved my life when involved in an accident in 1990. I am ready to forgive a lot of “sins” for that. Most of those now writing about June 12 were not even there when we were burning tyres to actualise it. For me, the struggle ended when the Almighty in his infinite wisdom took Chief MKO Abiola away. Those who cannot think of anything else to write are welcome to their determination to bore readers to tears. I have moved on.

  • Reasons to dismiss the 2021 Budget as a joke (Part II), By Dele Sobowale

    Reasons to dismiss the 2021 Budget as a joke (Part II), By Dele Sobowale

     

    It has been necessary to bring back the summary of the 2021 Budget provided last week for speedy recollection. The first part of this series focussed on the, once again, unrealistic N13.1 trillion expenditure projected. Since, “Even God cannot change the past” (Agathon, 447-401 BC) and perhaps some of the present, it is a historical fact that the Buhari government had failed to achieve its stated expenditure objectives from 2016 to 2019. it is already on course to miss the 2020 target by a wide margin. With that dismal track record, few financial experts will rely on their submissions for next year. No Board and Executive Management team of any company would have survived those calamities. Elected officials get away with failures which no football team will tolerate from their managers. We obviously take football more seriously than governance.

    The second thing to dispose of in the basic submission of government is the 3.64 per cent attributed to debt deficit of N5.12tn. The deception was totally deliberate. Deficit, debt and debt service go in tandem. Debt service actually represents 23.85 per cent of the 2021 expenditure. Realising that even the most stupid Nigerian would immediately grasp the impending disaster involved in spending almost one quarter of expenditure paying debts, Buhari switched to rendering deficit as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product, GDP – 3.64 per cent. In reality, it is 39.08 per cent of expenditure – a truly alarming percentage, even if achieved. Unfortunately, even that frightening target will most likely be missed by a wide margin. That was the pattern in five years; nothing suggests the sixth year will be different. You don’t do the same thing over again and expect a different result – unless a miracle occurs. The reason is simple.

    Once the IGR target shows a negative variance, larger deficit occurs which is always covered by more loans than was envisaged in the beginning. And, the more loans the higher the debt-servicing ratio climbs. The entire process is so elementary; one is at a loss why nobody in the Executive or the National Assembly, NASS can understand it. Obviously, the 2021 Budget is set to repeat the dreary annual budgetary cycle all over again. The FG will eventually borrow more than they budgeted and debt-servicing will gulp a higher percentage of revenue. Buhari might leave office in 2023 with debt consuming up to 60 per cent of our annual national income.

    When the mind turns to poverty alleviation, or more correctly, poverty escalation, the heart bleeds. Everybody recollects Bihar on May 29, 2019 telling Nigerians that since China and India succeeded in lifting 100 million of their citizens out of poverty; his government was committed to achieving the same feat in ten years. He repeated the same pledge in the 2021 Budget presentation. It was simply outrageous! The line between fact and fantasy (sanity and insanity) is a thin but firm one. Politics is always the art of the possible. Presidents are not elected to broadcast fairy tales but possibilities.

    China and India lifted so many millions out of poverty by growing their Gross Domestic Product, GDP, at double digits for ten or more years. By May 2019, Nigeria, under Buhari recorded the following annual GDP growth rates: 2016, -1.4%; 2017, 0.8 per cent, 2018, 1.98 per cent. Can anybody discern any similarity between Nigeria and China that would warrant Buhari’s “determination” to achieve the same feat as China? Most readers would recollect that in late 2018, the World Poverty Clock, WPC, had proclaimed Nigeria the poverty capital of the world – largely on account of the three years of the Buhari government. Undeterred by facts, preferring to stick to his own fiction, Buhari still promises to reduce the nation’s poor by 100 million in ten years. Where do we stand now – more than a year after the promise?

    “Population of extremely poor persons in Nigeria hits 102m – NECA.”

    VANGUARD, OCTOBER 12, 2020 p 19.

    Before going into the NECA report, it is necessary to step back a bit to 2018.

    So, in June 2018, 87 million Nigerians were living in extreme poverty. Now, 102 million or 15 million more, are in that disastrous situation. Yet, the President responsible for adding 15 million in two years is still talking about “commitment to lift 100 million in ten years?” Let us be serious. Granted it takes millions of fools to make “My Fellow Countrymen”, but, this is close to total national loss of senses on display. What would we think of the person making such claims, after five dreadful years if he is not the President of Nigeria?

    Just in case you think NECA was exaggerating, then consider this piece of information and shed more tears for Nigerians under Buhari.

    “Albert Zeufack, World Bank’s Chuef Economist for African Region, while speaking at the launch of new Africa Pulse….said debt exposure for African countries is set to grow by 61 percent in 2021…CDP per capita will record a decline of close to six percent in 2020 and by 2021; GDP per capita would have decreased to the level where it was in 2007, that’s 13 years of progress completely erased.” DAILY INDEPENDENT, OCTOBER 12, 2020, p 28.

    A brief but heart-breaking explanation is required — for the sake of those who might miss the import of that bit of bad news. The Africa region, with the GIANT of the continent leading the pack is borrowing its way into deepening poverty; such that by the end of 2021, the per capita income would have decreased to the 2007 level or approximately when Obasanjo lft office. The Buhari administration which promised in 2019 to start lifting 100 million Nigerians out of poverty over ten years, would by 2021 increase the number of those living in poverty by more than 30 million and reduce the standard of living of the average Nigerian below the 2008 level. Thus, we can again throw another part of the 2021 Budget into the trash can. It will not happen – unless a great miracle, such as the world has never seen, occurs. For sure Buhari would leave us in such a condition by 2023 that it will require three other governments to restore the nation to where it was in 2015.

    To be continued…

  • Reasons to dismiss 2021 Budget as a joke (Part 1), By Dele Sobowale

    Reasons to dismiss 2021 Budget as a joke (Part 1), By Dele Sobowale

    “We do many things at the federal level that would be considered dishonest and illegal if done in the private sector. Donald T Regan. 1986.

    Donald Regan was US Secretary of the Treasury (equivalent to our own Minister of Finance), from 1981-85 and Chief of Staff from 1985-87 for the Reagan administration. He was familiar with all the dishonest measures of the US federal government which, if engaged in by an individual, will brand him a fraudster or 419er. The Nigerian FG is not only just as guilty but operates with far less restraint than the US government. Add our National Assembly, NASS, invariably accomplices in the budgetary crimes and the Three Arms Zone of Abuja constitutes a greater peril to our economy than all the armed robbers, Area and Yahoo Boys. The quantum of funds mismanaged in Abuja will make all the acclaimed criminals appear benevolent. Every subsequent fraud stems from the way budgets are packaged by the FG and approved by the NASS. Virtually every entry is false and known to be so.

    President Buhari presented what was announced as the 2021 Budget to the NASS, on October 8, 2020. It was a terrible joke. This article might as well be titled FG PRESENTS ANOTHER DUD CHEQUE TO NIGERIANS and it will be just as apt. Budget 2021 incorporates all the faults of the previous five failed budgets – 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020. And, this latest demonstration of incompetence at budgeting, added a few more to ensure that it will never be implemented. By the time Buhari presents Budget 2022, we will all see clearly why this budget represents more than a disservice to the nation. It is almost a crime against Nigerians. If a man had spent the last five years promising more than he could deliver, Nigerians would by now have several unprintable epithets with which to describe him if he announces a sixth attempt at mass deception.

    “You can fool some of the people all the time.” That was the observation of a late American President. He must have had a nation like present day Nigeria in mind. And some of the people annually misled are the members of the NASS; who assume that because it is their party leader who is presenting the budget, they are duty bound to endorse a bogus document. The blind leading the blind is bad enough. A government of the blind leading people with good eyes, in Abuja, is one of the greatest absurdities of the world today. Show me a NASS member who actually believes that this budget will work and I will show you an economic illiterate who should not be there representing Nigerians.

    Before the rubber stamp NASS passes the budget, let me provide five cardinal reasons why it will not work: aggregate expenditure estimates, debt burden and servicing, capital expenditure, poverty alleviation and timing of funds release. One can easily add agriculture, manufacturing and lingering impacts of COVID-19. But, the five are more than enough to prove the points made here. As usual, although I can make all the observations myself, it is always better to bring third party evidence – bearing in mind the tendency of the Presidency to instigate comical rejoinders.

    “Buhari put aggregate expenditure at N13.08tn..,,debt servicing [would gulp] N3.12tn..The 2021 budget deficit…is projected at N5.20tn, representing 3.64 per cent.” The projected expenditure is partly based “on daily crude oil production of 1.86m and oil price of $40 per barrel.” President Buhari, October 8, 2020.

    Longer before Buhari, the FG had presented annual budgets based on daily production and export of crude oil far in excess of what historical trends or objective future forecasts would suggest. Since 2011, two of our associates had requested from us projections of Nigerian crude oil production and export. Even, globally acclaimed Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, sadly, had succumbed to political pressure by the Jonathan administration. Budgets for 2012 to 2015 were premised on 2.3mbpd despite annual warnings from us. Not once in four years was Nigeria able to export 2.3mbpd of crude. Yet, the Jonathan government persisted in deceiving itself and Nigerians for four years. It was a blunder.

    While Jonathan had at least two world class economists in charge of its Economic Management Team, Buhari, right from the start, till now, had been lacking such global financial experience. It has been extremely easy for them to rely on base sentiments when deciding that basic but most important variable when deciding crude oil production and export. For instance, it is a fact that Nigeria, based on agreement with OPEC, is honour-bound not to exceed 1.7mbpd of crude well into the first quarter of next year. Furthermore, as 2020 is coming to a close, Nigeria’s exports of crude have averaged less than 1.5mbpd. Experienced and objective managers anywhere will never ignore historical trends and known future certainties when preparing their budgets as Buhari’s government had done for six years in a row.

    Just as Jonathan’s administration failed to reach the target in five years, Buhari’s will again fall short for the sixth year in a row – unless a major disruption to global oil supply occurs. No nation’s leaders should gamble and lose repeatedly with the lives of the people.

    Those who fail to remember history, including their own, are condemned to repeating its mistakes. Unfortunately, crude oil revenue shortfall is not the only problem we have experienced since 2015. With expenditure projected at N13.08tn and deficit of N5.12tn expected, the FG was deliberately evasive about the anticipated revenue for 2021. The figure derived is N7.96tn or 60.85 per cent of expenditure. Close to 40 per cent of projected expenditure will have to be sourced from elsewhere; other than government operations. Once again, we are faced with the analogy of the family head who regularly promises more than can be delivered and frequently fails to redeem his promises. Dud cheques follow.

    Since 2015, the FG has failed to generate the revenue budgeted for each year. As we crawl to the fourth quarter of 2020, the actual income of government will most likely not exceed 62 per cent of this year’s estimates. Again, experienced and honest managers base their future projections on trends in the previous five years. So, it can be reasonably assumed that the FG will not generate N7.96tn in 2021; but more likely N4.8tn. The 3.2tn negative variance will comprise of lower receipts of crude oil revenue, remittances from Ministries, Departments and Agencies, as well as Value Added Tax, VAT, etc. This had been the pattern for five years and nothing suggests 2021 will yield a different result. So, though not specifically stated in the budget presentation, the implied Internally Generated Revenue, IGR, remains very unrealistic. Here is third party evidence.

    “Earlier…, Fitch Ratings….said that the rate of Nigeria’s sovereign debt could trigger a downgrade as government battles to raise revenue amid depleting earnings and low prices…” DAILY INDEPENDENT, OCTOBER 12, 2020.

    For those still doubting that objective financial experts are unanimous in their verdict that the FG’s estimates are unrealistic, here is more proof.

    Dr Muda Yusuf, Director General, Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), in response to the proposed expenditure of N13.1trillion, in 2021..said…revenue projections seem optimistic, having regards to revenue performance over the last few years. We have witnessed large negative variances in revenue targets over the last few years. This poses a risk of bigger deficits than projected.”

    The safest assumption is that large negative variances will continue into 2021.

    To be continued…

  • Has Niger Delta missed the boat? AKS as Metaphor, By Dele Sobowale

    Has Niger Delta missed the boat? AKS as Metaphor, By Dele Sobowale

    “We have met the enemy and they are ours.” Oliver H Perry, 1785-1819.

    VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ, p 48.

    As the Age of Oil fades gradually into the distance, the efforts of Obong Victor Attah would appear to have been in vain. Attah was indisputably the arrow head. His book ATTAH ON RESOURCE CONTROL, first published in 2004 and for which I was honoured to be asked to write the Foreword, is still available for those who must salvage the fortunes of the oil producing areas before the Age of Oil disappears into sunset. Already, knowledge and human resources have for long surpassed any crude commodity, oil included, as a source of a country’s competitive advantage. From all indications, the gap between knowledge-based economies (Japan, Singapore, Israel etc) and raw materials dependent economies (Nigeria) will continue to grow well into the future. In fact, it is inconceivable that a time will come, in the future, when nations relying only on export of raw materials will ever again become dominant. A time might come when researchers will have to Google OPEC to know that once upon a time when the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries sneezed, the entire world caught pneumonia. Today, most people in the world are dimly aware of its existence.

    The Age of Oil presented us with an opportunity to redraw the economic map of Nigeria. If each of the leaders – President, Governors, Ministers, Group Managing Directors, GMDs of NNPC, Senators, Members Federal House of Representatives, NNDC Board Members and Executive Directors, as well as Members of the State Houses of Assembly – of the Niger Delta had discharged his duties, as he should to the people, very few Niger Deltans should remain in Lagos State or Abuja looking for work.

    “A picture is worth a thousand words.” Chinese proverb.

    At the back of the revised edition of ATTAH ON RESOURCE CONTROL, the change in the economic prospects of the Niger Delta expected from the success of Attah’s struggle for 13 per cent derivation paid to the oil producing states – without offshore/onshore dichotomy was rendered in pie charts. That was my way of indicating to Niger Deltans the extremely bright prospects which awaited them – if only they managed the bonanza very well. Huge revenue allocation from Abuja can never by itself result in revolutionary economic transformation. All it would provide are opportunities to make rapid progress possible. I was under no illusion that the zone would experience unusual renaissance just because unprecedented billions dropped into the laps of the leaders. Without responsible, imaginative, courageous and self-less leaders, most of the funds would flow inexorably into various dirty cesspools – called private pockets.

    I rejoiced with the people of the Niger Delta when a political solution (see the book please) finally made it possible for oil producing states to collect 13 per cent derivation without any dichotomy. Today, I feel very sad. After almost fifteen years of collecting vastly higher revenue, the people in general remain as poor as when the windfall started. In some respects they are worse off. The obvious question is: why? Before attempting to provide an answer, permit me the indulgence of quickly summarising the situation in the region now.

    “2021 dateline for completion of East-West road sacrosanct – Akpabio.”

    VANGUARD Monday, 28 September 2020, p 12.

    A news report, which ordinarily would make one extremely happy, has only revealed why the trillions of naira which went into the Niger Delta might be regarded almost a complete waste. I felt sorry for Minister Akpabio who made that promise in Ogoniland to a gathering of people which one can only assume does not include anybody over the age of 15. He was even honest enough to remind the deluded people that the dualisation of the road was promised to Niger Deltans by President Obasanjo in 2002 who departed office in 2007 – without fulfilling his promise. Since then, the same promise has been made at least four times by Nigerian Presidents. In fact, it is one of the most often repeated lies told by leaders who no longer deserve our respect.

    Yar’Adua succeeded OBJ in 2007 and repeated the same set of promises – still there was no dualised road. Jonathan followed Yar’Adua and served five years. The man even asked Nigerians to “call me bastard if the road is not completed” during his tenure 2011 to 2015. When GOJ left office after five years, the worst part was in Bayelsa state — from Patani to Ahoada. What are we to call him?

    OBJ, YAR and GOJ have one thing in common with Akpabio. They were all members of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. Furthermore, Akpabio was Governor and Senator of Akwa Ibom State when Jonathan was President. There is no record anywhere of Akpabio using his exalted offices to speak out on behalf of the people on the states which were the intended beneficiaries of the road. Instead, they suffered innumerable losses of life, properties and prospects for rapid development. Streams of their blood flowing on account of uncountable preventable accidents, like those of Biblical Abel must be crying to God for justice — the sooner; the better.

    “Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter.”

    Rev (Dr) Martin Luther King, Jr,

    Akpabio was close to all the three former Presidents – especially Jonathan. Between the two of them, they could have made the entire length of the East-West road a mission so long accomplished years ago. But, to their everlasting shame they failed to provide the basic infrastructure which would have served all the people.

    Furthermore, he is making the promise on behalf of the fourth Federal Government. That renders it another suspicious politicians’ promise because, this particular FG has so far failed to fulfil any of its promises on infrastructural development and service delivery. Those of us unfortunate to operate on the Lagos-Ibadan axis have now learnt that the last thing we accept as sacrosanct is a promise to finish road or rail line by an announced date. So shamelessly have we been treated to unredeemed pledges by this administration, we now regard them as empty noises signifying nothing.

    Nigerians also need to be reminded that all the former Presidents have made the pledge to complete the road each and every time there in tension in the polity. The same announcement is rolled out, in a manner similar to women pacifying small kids by promising toys, ice cream etc, which they have no intention of providing. Invariably, the East-West road is forgotten as soon as the political tension abates. Only an incurable optimist will believe that a government which is broke will undertake a project which Yar’Adua failed to deliver when crude oil was selling for $120 per barrel. Left to me, I stand on the belief that “you can’t fool all the people all the time.” Akpabio might not even be around on December 2021 to explain why the road is still not completed.

    The problem is compounded this time by the reputation of the announcer. Akpabio, since becoming Minister for Niger Delta Affairs, had made some bold declarations only to recant later. One simply does not often know when to accept what he utters at face-value. My own approach is to triple my order of salt from the market before reading his submissions. A pinch will most likely not be sufficient to digest the stuff. His carpet-crossing has not altered the profile which emerged since 2007. Readers will have to be patient for more on that next week.

    NDDC AND THE OPPORTUNIES LOST TO CORRUPTION.

    “Oil producing states got N44tn in 18 years.” PUNCH, June 13, 2020, p 28.

    Before you start shedding tears for the people of the region, let us at UniJankara help you to understand better the monumental calamity which had befallen the poor (they are still mostly poor) people of the oil producing states. You might want to shed blood instead of water. They have stolen the future of Niger Delta.

    One of our new recruits took one look at the figures – N44tn in 18 years – just quoted and he undertook the following analysis. First, the leaders of the states collectively received on behalf of their people more revenue than the entire debt piled up by the Federal Government in the same period. Remember we are talking of only nine states. Second, the cumulative figure means that on the average N2.4 trillion per annum was collected. Again, that translates to one quarter (25%) of the FG budget this year, 2020, and 105 per cent of the 2000 budget. We are not finished. Approximately, N200bn per day lands in various laps for the benefit of the people. That also means N7bn per day arrives – hot and heavy. The figure is larger than all the Federal Budgets from independence.

    The challenge now is this: can anybody point to any part of the oil producing states which now reflects this mammoth financial windfall? Since returning to Nigeria in 1974, I have worked and lived in all the four corners of Nigeria, as well as places in between. From 1994 until 2008, when I voluntarily resigned from the staff of VANGUARD MEDIA, it was my duty to travel to all the states of Nigeria at least three times a year. Although the trips were reduced thereafter, I still averaged travels to 24 states a year – until 2019. So, without any attempt at false modesty, I can claim to know this country as well as anybody – East, West, North and South. I am an eye witness to all the atrocities committed by leaders in the region – with a very few exceptions.

    RECENT REVELATIONS AND THE AKWA IBOM CONNECTION

    Akwa Ibom State will serve as example for the entire region next week when we embark on the second part of this series. But, permit me to remind readers of some of what has been revealed about the Niger Delta Development Commission, NDDC. Then, it is easy to understand why N44tn went down into the swamps of the nine states. These reminders are not arranged in any particular order. Yet, collectively they illustrate a pattern of deliberate massive embezzlement of funds which the most brazen colonialist could not have contemplated sixty years ago.

    1. CSO Uncovers Fresh N35bn fraud at NDDC – Daily Independent, June 15, 2020.

    2. Akpabio: NASS members got most NDDC contracts – VANGUARD, July 21, 2020.

    3. Akpabio, Nunieh in verbal war over NDDC VANGUARD, July 13, 2020.

    4. Pondei, others spent N5bn as medical allowances – PUNCH, August 4, 2020.

    5. Controversy as Senate probes NDDC N40bn spending – PUNCH 10, 2020.

    6. The greatest amount of money that can be classified as missing is the derivation funds that run into several trillions of naira — VANGUARD, July 19, 2020.

    7. Nigeria’ll break if we release NDDC looters list — OJOUGBOH – VANGUARD, August 31, 2020.

    Most Nigerians want to have the list of looters of NDDC funds – even if Nigeria breaks.

    NEXT WEEK: AKSG WAS THE FIRST STATE GOVERNMENT IN NIGERIA TO COLLECT N1TN IN FOUR YEARS – 2007 TO 2011.

  • Who will save Nigeria from imminent debt bondage?, By Dele Sobowale

    Who will save Nigeria from imminent debt bondage?, By Dele Sobowale

    “Nigeria’s debt service to revenue ration is unsustainable – NESG

    SUNDAY TELEGRAPH, August 23, 2020, p 15.

    A visitor from another planet, versed in economics, on arriving in Nigeria and reading our newspapers must wonder if there are intelligent people governing us. Future historians might not be too wrong if they assume or conclude that in 2020 Nigeria still lived in the Dark Age. Everything – CAMA 2020, Magu Probe, P&ID’s $9.68bn judgment, bandits etc – touched by the administration has turned to dust. Just as it is difficult to pin-point which of them will ruin us first, it is certain that the debt burden we are asked to bear is a prime candidate for the first major harbinger of disaster. History, bad history, might be about to repeat itself. Nigeria is gradually moving towards the brink of debt default once again. The first occurred in 1984/85 when Buhari was the Military Head of State. It occurred at the same time we were in our first recession ever. We experienced the second recession in 2016 and the third is now quietly underway.

    “It is the buyer’s fault if he fails to ask if the horse is blind.”

    VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ, p 24.

    Nigerians, including me, have no reason to blame Buhari for our woes. Twice, in 2015 and 2019, we overwhelmingly elected a candidate who presented to us no comprehensive economic programme. In 2015, we fell for the meaningless slogan – change. It never occurred to us that it could be a change for the worse. For 2019, the gimmick was Next Level. Again, most Nigerians apparently could not remember that in a multiple storey building, the next level could actually be down. But, as good old Abraham Lincoln, 1809-1865, had said “You can fool some of the people all the time; you can fool all the people some of the time; but, you can’t fool all the people all the time.” (VBQ p 62). As far back as 2019, I warned Nigerians about the Next Level and the false promise of hope it implied.

    NEXT LEVEL IS PURE ANARCHY

    “The Katsina State Government has cancelled all activities lined up for the inauguration ceremony of the new administration in the state.”

    PUNCH, May 24, 2019, p 2.

    The government gave its reasons. “The decision on a low-key celebration was taken following the unfortunate incessant attacks by bandits in some areas of the state which led to the death of many people and left several others injured or homeless.” Katsina, it needs to be repeated is Buhari’s own state. Unless charity no longer begins at home, we have the scary scenario of a leader who cannot defend his own home assuring the rest of us of our safety. Anarchy is here. When Buhari is sworn in on May 29, 2019 for his second term (which cannot end soon enough for me) his state would have been on record for posterity as the first state to succumb to the dictates of hoodlums – now called bandits. When, a few weeks ago, the article FROM BEGGING TO BANDITRY: REVOLT OF THE ALMAJIRIS was published, a lot of things were deliberately omitted from the facts presented in order not to frighten too many Fellow Nigerians.”

    Today, the National Assembly, NASS, which the President and the VP had expected will rubber stamp all loan requests without asking questions is resisting the imminent push of Nigeria into a serious debt trap. If anybody in this country still needs a reason for calling on Buhari and Osinbajo to stop their senseless economic policy and dangerous management, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, NESG, provided some of the evidence needed. But, before examining the facts, permit me to introduce the NESG. I attended the Summit unfailingly for the first eight years.

    The NESG was the brain-child of Chief Ernest Shonekan, GCFR, Nigeria’s Head of Interim National Government, HING, for a few weeks in 1993. Prior to that Shonekan had been installed as civilian head of government services while Babangida was military President. Shonekan was the Chairman/Managing Director, of UAC of Nigeria, UACN, when the company was the largest Nigerian company with over 30 divisions. When Shonekan spoke, governments, even military juntas, listened. As the top civilian in government in 1992, he organised the first NESG which brought together the leaders of the Organised Private Sector, Banks, Insurance, Federal Ministries, Agencies, Labour etc. The objective was to get all sectors of the economy to work together to promote economic growth and development. The annual summit was the forum and the first was in 1992. Don’t blame NESG if Nigeria has failed to grow as envisaged for 28 years since it was established as a Think Tank advising government. The patriotic and hardworking group of very sound economic and financial technocrats had been preaching to Nigerian governments with ears plugged. NESG, despite its decline to a “billionaires’ club” might as well have been talking to mules. Apart from a brief period with IBB and Shonekan, NESG has been trying in vain to steer Nigerian governments – Abacha, Abdulsalami, Obasanjo, Yar’Adua, Jonathan and now Buhari — in the right direction. None of the former governments had fielded a weaker Economic Management Team than we have had since 2015. And no leader has demonstrated the lack of capacity to understand basic economic issues as we have now. That explains why the only answer to fiscal deficit is borrowing. The reader can imagine a situation in which a doctor prescribes the same treatment for every complaint. Nigeria is now, predictably, running into a debt trap with the possibility of default starring us in the face as in 1984/5. This is how the NESG explained the situation in which we now find ourselves.

    “The importance of dealing with the challenge of inadequate revenue is highlighted by the very high debt service-to-revenue ratio. .

    While this ratio has improved to 72 per cent in May from 99 per cent recorded at the end of March 2020, it remains unsustainably high and undermines the ability of government to meet its non-debt obligations such as provision of infrastructure, human capital development and protecting our nation’s large population of vulnerable people.

    Limited revenues only entrench the government’s dependence on borrowing from the Central Bank of Nigeria with adverse consequences for our economy.”

    I could not have summarised the threat to the economy better. The only thing to add to the aptly written warning of the NESG is that when for six years the actual revenue falls consistently short of the budgeted revenue, the tendency to engage in panic loan seeking increases. That is what has happened since 2015.

    Commonsense dictates that when an economic unit persistently falls shot of its revenue estimates, it must either boost revenue or reduce expenditure drastically. That is the “cut your coat according to your cloth” policy. Nigeria’s case is made worse when “Know-Nothings” speak for government. The Vice President’s defender in his ridiculous rejoinder mentioned Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore to explain why it is acceptable to have an economic-illiterate running our economy. Yew, in a BBC News interview disclosed that he read over 40 books on Economics and attended 12 top level seminars on various economic developments before making his decisions. Yew would never have contemplated something as grossly stupid as spending N56.4 billion to create 774,000 bogus jobs that would last only three months!!! That can only happen in Nigeria.

    NEXT WEEK: VP/EMT DELIVER PREDICTED RECESSION ON SCHEDULE.

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  • Birthday wishes to Babangida at 80-1 (2) – Dele Sobowale

    Birthday wishes to Babangida at 80-1 (2) – Dele Sobowale

    By Dele Sobowale

    NOTE: Because of our current travails on account of the partial lockdown of the Third Mainland Bridge, this part of the article ended abruptly. Readers could not possibly understand the significance of the bridge and the vision it entailed at the time. IBB embarked on completion of the bridge approximately 17 years after the Eko Bridge was opened by Gowon in anticipation of the population surge which the 1988 Census revealed. Even then, it was clear that the 3rd Bridge would provide only temporary relief. Another bridge or tunnel was needed within 15 years. Today, nearly 30 years after that forward looking regime, we are feeling the lash of the folly of his successors who failed to construct another bridge or the first tunnel.

    “I hold that man in the right, who is most in league with the future.”

    Henrik Ibsen, 1828-1906. VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ p 71.

    Today the economy of Lagos State is under double lockdown – CORO-19 and Third Mainland Bridge. Nigeria’s economy is also partially under lockdown because what is good for Lagos economy is good for Nigeria. WE are in this sad state because after Babangida had the foresight to build Third Mainland, as Gowon had the sense to erect Eko Bridge, no other President has had enough sense to either build the fourth bridge or the first tunnel. A little bit of history is however necessary to illustrate how different leaders react to the problems which confront them when they assume office.

    In January 1984 Buhari became Nigeria’s Military Head of State; he met two transport projects underway in Lagos. The first was the Lagos Metro Line designed by Jakande’s government to provide rail transport from Mile 2 to Lagos Island in order to ease the traffic hold up along the Badagry-Mile 2-Orile-Iganmu route. Although it was strictly a state project, Buhari ordered it to be stopped. That was the end of the vision of trouble-free movement along an important corridor of the nation’s economic centre, gateway to ECOWAS and social melting

  • And now the bad news from the VP, By Dele Sobowale

    And now the bad news from the VP, By Dele Sobowale

    “FG has started implementing Economic Sustainability Plan – Osinbajo.”

    VANGUARD, August 11, 2020, p 19.

    “If you have tears, prepare to shed them now.” That is not original to me. The original author was Mark Anthony in Shakespeare’s (1564-1616) play JULIUS CAESAR. But the great(est) British writer/poet had provided the most appropriate opening statement in response to the announcement by the Vice President who embodies everything that is wrong with Buharinomics. What we have in Nigeria right now is not a case of the blind leading the blind. If it was so, that situation can be easily corrected. Our situation would have furnished material for a great comedy – if it does not portend a great tragedy unfolding. What we are experiencing is a puzzling case of the blind attempting to lead, not only blind people like them, but, clear-eyed individuals as well. The VP might be a brilliant lawyer; but, he is an atrocious economist. His first four years as the leader of Economic Management Team, EMT, led Nigeria to the brink of total economic catastrophe and the sooner he steps aside the best for everybody.

    “Promises like pie crusts are made to be broken.” Jonathan Swift, 1667-1745.

    The Buhari administration has broken every promise made with its annual budgets and ERGP shamelessly. Nobody in that government has demonstrated the decency of showing remorse for each target missed. They just go on and release another whopper out of contempt for fellow Nigerians. Nigerians need to be reminded that when Osinbajo’s EMT announced the first budget – Budget 2016 – it was the first insight we received that our economy was in serious trouble because the EMT comprised of cheap propagandists who were promising more than they could ever deliver. They pledged 3 per cent Gross Domestic Product, GDP, growth in 2016; we ended with -1.4% and a recession which real economists, unlike their own Voodoo economists, had predicted accurately. For four years the EMT led us to a cumulative GDP growth of less than 1.5 per cent – while population galloped along at over 3 per cent. They got richer and Nigerians got poorer. Buhari in his inaugural address actually promised that the FG would employ 500,000 graduates as teachers among the fantasies released as targets to be achieved during his first term. Instead, graduate unemployment rose. No remorse for deceiving the young people.

    When recession hit in 2016, and was about to be followed by 0.8 per cent GDP growth in 2017, the FG hastily introduced the Economic Recovery and Growth Programme, ERGP, in April 2017. At the launching, Osinbajo spoke like a real lawyer – meaning he did not actually expect intelligent people to believe what he said. Again, among the delusions set forth in the ERGP was the promise to create 15 million jobs. The ERGP was buried recently. No jobs were created; instead more jobs were lost and without apologies or remorse, our Pastor VP is once again making more promises which will not be kept. Here is what he said.

    “To this end, the Federal Government developed the ESP with a stimulus package of N2.3 trillion to give fillip to the economy across various sectors.”

    To begin with, Nigerians must ask themselves if they have any reason to continue to believe a government which has proved so invariably untrustworthy. Gamblers and forecasters know how to fix the odds for a team which had lost the last ten matches in a row when it steps out for the next one – especially when it fields the same set of players or clones of the habitual losers. The Buhari Economic Team is essentially the same set of fumblers. The VP knows very little economics; the President knows even far less and is incapable of learning new things. The Minister of Finance, Budget and Planning can only occupy that position in Nigeria – despite the surfeit of world class economists. The truth is; this team and its game plan have failure written all over it even before the ESP gets underway. They don’t know how to prepare annual budgets or medium term projections. They certainly cannot execute even the dreadful plans they propose. Just take a look at the results in the last five years.

    How they determined that N2 trillion stimulus is what we need was not explained. Apparently, we are supposed to accept the words of Pastor Osinbajo who for five years has been bearing false witnesses each and every time he speaks on the economy. Well, as P.T Barnum said: “A sucker (fool) is born every minute”. Furthermore, how we will source the funds is shrouded in mystery as usual. Judging from the track record of the last five years, they will most probably take a begging bowl to China again and pile more debt on our children and grandchildren. Meanwhile, most of the funds borrowed will be given away, wasted and stolen – not invested on projects designed to repay the loans as sensible leaders of advancing nations often do.

    While all the observations made above are important, the most troubling aspect of the VP’s introduction of the ESP is related to the timing and methodology of arriving at the decision. Only recently, the Minister of State for Finance etc, Mr Agabi, announced that the failure of ERGP called for starting from scratch to formulate new ESP. That was about the only sensible statement that has come out of officialdom since 2015. One would have expected that the fresh start will entail getting all segments of the Nigerian society involved in charting the new future – especially young people. After all, the future the FG is toying with belongs more to the youth than to us – old goats above 70. A forum should have been created for all professional associations — NLC, ASUU, NANS, pensioners etc – to make inputs into this programme and to build a consensus around the outcome. Inclusiveness, in this case, should not be a gimmick to reduce objections to the plan. It should aim to tap into the hidden genius of the Nigerian people in a way that will stimulate active support instead of inducing customary passive acceptance – which remains the bane of most government programmes. What we now have represents an ambush. The FG has decided our future without involving us and the attitude is “take it or leave it”. Nigerians will mostly leave it and that is why it won’t work. It is Buhari’s plan; not ours.

    Nigerians must also ask what role the Economic Advisory Council, EAC, headed by Dr Doyin Salami played in shaping the ESP. Were they consulted and does the final plan reflect their inputs? They, at least, are economists. Without any attempt to invest them with the aura of infallibility, I think Nigerians will feel better if they know that professionals had a heavy hand in the outcome – just as we will all sleep easier if we know that health professionals (doctors, nurses, radiologists, x-ray technicians, pharmacists etc) are in charge of the COVID-19 and not mechanics in fine suits. So, how much influence did the EAC have on the ESP? If they had none, it will be safe to ask that they should be disbanded because it is difficult to imagine a more important reason for their appointment.

    In the end, we are faced with the same question we ask every time the FG announces economic plans and programmes. “Will ESP work?” Unfortunately, the answer remains the same. “Not bloody likely.” Reasons for the answer will follow in the weeks ahead.

  • Nigeria’s Economic Future Built on Falsehood (1), By Dele Sobowale

    Nigeria’s Economic Future Built on Falsehood (1), By Dele Sobowale

    “N6.4trn ERGP expenditure fails to meet set targets.

    Govt forced to draw new development plan, to start from scratch.”

    VANGUARD, July 27, 2020, p 1.

    The report went on to list the failed targets of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, ERGP as follows:

    · Stable macroeconomic environment

    · Agricultural transformation and food security

    · Sufficiency in energy (power and petroleum products

    · Improved transportation infrastructure

    · Industrialisation focusing SMEs

    That is Nigeria’s present position “as the Federal Government gets set to replace the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) with a new economic plan, the Nigerian Economic Sustainability Plan (NESP).” Even without having access to the details, NESP is likely to be another exercise in futility because the mind-sets which produced the ERGP calamity have not changed. “What’s in a name? That which we call a rose, by any other name will smell as sweet.” (William Shakespeare, 1564-1616, VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, p 167). The FG and Nigerians were warned that ERGP was a shameless and untenable economic plan the day it was released. Please follow me back to 2017 when the plan was announced by a government. Below are excerpts from that article.

    ERGP AND THE MOUNTAINS TO CLIMB.

    “This occasion is timely and according to the plan, the unique point of our four year economic growth plan. It comes with an implementation strategy and a devise which has been described as laboratorious.” VP Osinbajo.

    That was the Vice President launching an economic disaster as if it was Nigeria’s greatest economic programme. Read what I wrote.

    1 “The Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, ERGP, which was launched in April 2017 is finally getting off the ground with the announcement of a huge price tag for it. According to the Federal Government, FG, it will cost an amazing $245bn with the government providing 20 per cent or $49bn and the private sector $196bn over the next four years. It will constitute the boldest attempt to speed up economic growth and development in the nation’s history. FG also promised to create 15 million jobs. That can be left for the moment. Every government, including this one, has fed the people with a salad bowl of illusions on the millions of jobs they would create only for more jobs to be lost.

    The ERGP promises Gross Domestic Product growth of 4 per cent to seven per cent by the end of the fourth year. That is welcome news. On page B3 of the DAILY INDEPENDENT of February 8, 2018, the ECONOMY SNAPSHOT revealed how the GDP per capita had declined to $2,457.80 in 2016 from $2,563.10 in 2014. The result for 2017 is unlikely to improve on the 2016 level. The reason is clear.” “With population growing at 3 per cent a nation needs more than four per cent growth for the economic welfare of its citizens to improve. Nigeria has been growing at less than one per cent since 2015. We need a huge economic stimulus, other than the annual budget to get us there.”

    3. “But, ERGP has emerged as the new economic paradigm. It carries with it elements of the VISION 2020 legitimate dreams and aspirations as well as the frightening illusions and nightmares. The mere mention of “10 GW electricity increase and attaining 100 position in the ease of doing business by 2020” reveals our obsession with the year 2020. What on earth is magical or sacrosanct about 2020? Just another year!…While the obstacles are almost uncountable, the most pressing and the limiting factor militating against ERGP is TIME.”

    ERGP AND THE MOUNTAINS TO CLIMB – 2

    “It does not matter if the cat is black or white as long as it catches rats.”

    Malaysian proverb.

    Those were the words of wisdom from the Malaysian lecturer who delivered the first keynote address at the Nigerian Economic Summit Group meeting in 1992. I still have the hand-notes taken from that promising workshop.

    4 “The fact that the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, ERGP, which has become the main thrust of our rapid economic growth plan is based on an idea which was offered to us free of charge twenty six years ago tells a lot about Nigeria. Now we are paying.

    The plan calls for the Federal Government to come up with $49bn and the private sector is expected to kick in $196bn. Fine on paper, but, is it realistic? Can the FG provide $49bn in the next four years and whatever it must between now and May 29, 2019? The reference to next year May is important because the FG must certainly be aware that unless two things happen, the plan is dead on arrival. [First, Buhari must be re-elected]. Second, the current National Assembly must have passed the necessary bills and approvals to raise and disburse the huge sums required for ERGP before going into history…… If not, even Buhari’s re-election will mean starting all over again to seek NASS approval for the ERGP.”

    Let us place the request for $49bn investment by the FG in context. Nigeria is already neck deep in debt which all financial institutions find unsustainable. Government will need to raise the debt ceiling by double the level it stands at the moment to raise the funds required to pay the $49bn bill. Where will the money come from?”

    As the FG gets set to present another economic programme, packed full of illusions and deceptions, book a date with us to read the truth.

    To be continued….

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  • They still cannot tell Nigerians the truth – Dele Sobowale

    They still cannot tell Nigerians the truth – Dele Sobowale

    “Nigeria heading for recession in Q4 2020 – FG.”

    PUNCH, July 11, 2020, p 28.

    “If we permit ourselves to be ill-served ..by corrupt, incompetent and inefficient men [and women], then on our own heads must the blame rest.”

    US President Theodore Roosevelt, 1858-1919.

    My courses on American government during my undergraduate years had taught me that we must be to pay attention to the quality of the people appointed to the highest offices of government. I learnt another lesson when being trained in computer programming at POLAROID CORPORATION in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. It said Garbage In Garbage Out, GIGO. I have observed appointees to high offices by the FG since General Gowon’s administration till now and invariably, those who packed quality individuals into their government – Gowon, Murtala Mohammed, Babangida and Obasanjo (1999-2007) – left legacies and institutions which still shape our lives today. The others proved that GIGO permeates all human activities. They moved the country forward in many ways that can be easily proved.

    Those who stacked the deck with poor quality individuals end up leaving a lot of garbage behind instead of admirable legacies. Murtala ruled for less than one year. Yet, he left footprints more durable and worthy of emulation than we have experienced in the last five years; or, what we can hope for in the next three years. Right now, we simply don’t have the Ministers, Departments and Agency, MDAs, Heads who will deliver the returns on our investments. Instead, what we are getting amounts to diminishing returns.

    I recently drew attention to the decline in productivity of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC without knowing that it was already under investigation ordered by the President. Right now, all we have are allegations. But, even if only ten per cent of the accusations prove to be correct, Nigeria would have lost hundreds of billions directly and even more as collateral damage. Once again, the EFCC has proved my instincts correct.

    In fact, the Magu-gate provides the introduction to this week’s column and it underlies why nobody whose business interests will be strongly affected by the macro-economic trends should take this government seriously. Investment decisions for those not embarking on corporate suicide must be based on the most accurate predictions – irrespective of the source – instead of the usually over-optimistic projections of the FG. Reports published last week have once again revealed how dangerous it is to rely on what the FG says about the economy. Most often their forecasts are not only wrong, they are deliberately deceptive. Otherwise, how can my personal econometric model used to forecast short term trends prove consistently more accurate than the FG’s?

    The Federal Government of Nigeria, FGN, finally caved in last week, after months of self-deceit, ably supported by the rubber stamp National Assembly, NASS. They announced stale news as breaking news. The reporter was Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed, who has no demonstrated competence in Economics, Finance, Budget or Planning at high levels, but was nonetheless placed in charge of all those vital aspects of our lives.

    According to the reports “findings showed that the country’s Gross Domestic Product, GDP, for the second and third quarters of 2020 were projected to be negative.” That was bad enough. It was also revealed that “the country’s real GDP had been projected by the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, to contract by 4.2 per cent….as against the previous projected growth of 2.9 per cent.” That is worse; because the negative variance is 7.1 per cent – as at now if we were to believe the FG. But, we cannot, and should not believe the Buhari administration for the following reasons.

    First, they have never achieved any forecasts they have made in the past five years and there in no reason to think that they will be more accurate this time around. What followed was taken from the 2020 Budget submitted by Buhari and passed by the NASS. Read and shed tears for Nigeria that we have allowed ourselves to be governed by incompetent, corrupt and inefficient individuals. “Budget of Continuity was based on a benchmark oil price of $60 per barrel, oil production of 2.3mbpd…government projected a deficit of N1.91tn…The revenue performance is only 58 per cent of the 2019 budget’s target due to the underperformance of both oil and non-oil revenue sources…Specifically oil revenues were below target by 49 per cent as at June 2019.”

    President Buhari, Budget 2020 presentation to the NASS, October 8, 2019.

    Buhari started by admitting that his government failed woefully to execute the 2019 budget mainly because the FG was wrong on three major variables which determine the outcome of all budgets in Nigeria – the benchmark oil price, the production per day and the aggregate revenue. It is unlikely that the Chief Executive Officer, CEO, of any company quoted on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, NSE, would report to his board of directors that “revenue performance is only 58 per cent” of the budget and still keep his job. Apparently, Nigerians set a higher standard of performance for the MD of Oando, whose failures affect only a few thousand people directly, than we do for our President.

    In the same article titled BUDGET OF DECEIT AND SELF-DELUSION, we discover that the FG went ahead and repeated the same mistakes when preparing the 2020 Budget. The most important parameters were once again based on deceit and self-delusion. Benchmark, daily oil production and aggregate revenue were again over-stated. That prompted the remark below.

    “What has the government done to correct the recurrent error in the 2020 budget? Something worse happened as a matter of fact. On October 1, President Buhari announced to the world that he had ordered released N600bn for capital projects for 2019 in the next three months. That sum represents only 22 per cent of the capital budget for the entire year. It also means that 78 per cent of capital appropriation for this year will not be forthcoming. That was bad enough. What made the announcement worse was the fact that the Nigerian President had pronounced a major tragedy as if it was an outstanding triumph. Only in Africa in general and Nigeria in particular can a President make such a statement and remain unruffled. Buhari needs not worry. He rules the most docile and the largest bunch of suckers in the world – including the NASS.

    The 2020 Budget is worse in all respects than the 2019 budget which is already a disaster. One must wonder what Buhari and his advisers are thinking of and what the leaders of the NASS are doing. All the evidence required for this budget to be tossed into the garbage can is there. Granted, the Buhari administration is one in which the right hand does not often know what the left is doing. But, can that excuse the absurdities we are witnessing?”

    To be continued….

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