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Tag: Ehichioya Ezomon

  • Another Interim Government plot by Military apologists – By Ehichioya Ezomon

    Another Interim Government plot by Military apologists – By Ehichioya Ezomon

    Military apologists – in and outside of Government – are conniving to take advantage of fallouts from the February and March Federal and State elections – to foist an illegal contraption of an Interim National Government on Nigeria.

    This comes barely 56 days to the May 29, 2023, swearing in of President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress, to replace outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari.

    In attempting to abort and supplant an elected government, the anti-democratic elements plan to undermine the amended 1999 Constitution, which’s foundational to existence of Nigeria as a Nation.

    Section 1(2) of the Constitution states, unambiguously, that: “The Federal Republic of Nigeria shall not be governed, nor shall any person or group of persons take control of the Government of Nigeria or any part thereof, except in accordance with the provisions of this Constitution.”

    For good measure, section 1(1) states that: “This Constitution is supreme and its provisions shall have binding force on all authorities and persons throughout the Federal Republic of Nigeria.”

    And section 1(3), reinforcing section 1(1), states that: “If any other law is inconsistent with the provisions of this Constitution, this Constitution shall prevail, and that other law shall to the extent of the inconsistency be void.”

    As interim government is unknown to law, its planners will have to suspend section 1(1)-(3) of the Constitution for a soft and safe landing, to impose themselves and their will on Nigerians.

    In the February 25 presidential election, Tinubu, a former Lagos State Governor, defeated 17 contestants, including three leading opposition candidates.

    They’re former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of Peoples Democratic Party, former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi of Labour Party, and former Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of New Nigeria Peoples Party.

    But Atiku and Obi claim they each won the poll, and should’ve been declared President-elect, instead of Tinubu, who won in 12 states, scored 8,794,726 votes and secured one-quarter (25%) spread in 27 states.

    Atiku, who won in 12 states, polled 6,984,520 votes, and secured 25% in 17 states; and Obi, who claimed 11 states, scored 6,101,533 votes, and secured 25% in 15 states, disagreed with INEC’s returns.

    They argue in their petitions to the Presidential Election Petitions Court (PEPC) that Tinubu didn’t meet the requirements of the law, viz: the 1999 Constitution and Electoral Act 2022.

    While they’re in court, Atiku and Obi’s supporters and members of their parties have found their ways into the streets, and laid siege to the offices of the Independent National Electoral Commission in Abuja, and several States, in attempts to reverse the declaration of Tinubu, and cancel or annul the poll.

    The other day, members of the PDP, led by its “stepped-aside” National Chairman Iyorcha Ayu, and the party candidate, Atiku, protested to the INEC office in Abuja, demanding cancellation of the election, and a second exercise organised “that will be credible and acceptable to Nigerians and the international community.”

    Members of ObIdients Movement – supporters of Labour’s Obi – also stormed Abuja streets, with a call to annul the poll.

    They pleaded with Buhari to practically breach the Constitution by declining to hand over to Tinubu on May 29, but to form an illegal Inerim National Government – made famous in 1993, after the Military regime of retired Gen. Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida annulled the June 12, 1993, poll won by Chief Moshood Kashimawo Olawale (MKO) Abiola.

    Due to intense pressure, both home and abroad, Babangida decided to “step aside” on August 26, 1993, but not before he empanelled an Interim National Government headed by boardroom great, Chief Ernest Shonekan, who lasted only 82 days in power.

    Then Chief of Army Staff, Gen. Sani Abacha, took advantage of a November 10, 1993, ruling of a Lagos High Court Judge, the late Dolapo Akinsanya, that illegled the Interim National Goverment.

    Justice Akinsanya said: “President Babangida has no legitimate power to sign a decree after August 26, 1993, after his exit, so the decree is void and of no effect.”

    Abacha then sacked Shonekan, and established a draconian regime that hunted and eliminated many pro-democracy activists, including Abiola’s wife, Kudirat, gunned down on June 4, 1996, by Abacha’s goons in Lagos.

    And five years after annulment of June 12 on June 23, 1993, Abiola died in mysterious circumstances in detention on July 7, 1998, as he strugged to regain his mandate that Justice Akinsanya’s ruling had literally restored in November 1993 sans Abacha’s seizure of power.

    It’s President Buhari, who posthumously recognised Abiola on June 12, 2018, as the legitimate winner of June 12, and awarded him the highest National Honour of Grand Commander of the Federal Republic (GCFR) – as an attestation of Abiola as President-elect, though not sworn-in accordingly.

    Among those that survived the Abacha killing spree is President-elect Tinubu, who escaped into exile on the Intel that he was marked for elimination by the Abacha hit squad.

    Tinubu returned to the country following the political transition programme that retired Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar’s regime initiated to usher in the Fourth Republic in 1999. He vied for and won election as Governor of Lagos, and was re-elected, and served out his eight-year tenure in 2007.

    The foregoing are the tales and horrors that signposted Nigeria’s first Inerim National Government – birthed from a duly appointed and conducted election – but hijacked by the very Military that ordred the election in the first place.

    Save Military apologists parading as pseudo-democrats, Nigerians – including Individuals, Ethnic Nationalities, National Association of Nigerian Students, Civil Society Organisations, the 36 State Governors and Senior Lawyers versed in constitutional matters – are genuinely alarmed by the unfolding development.

    Amid the economic and social dislocations in the society, can Nigerians face another apparatus imposed this time through the machinations of politicians and supporters that lost elections, in cahoots with cliques within and outside the government?

    Can Nigeria withstand aftermaths of annulment of Tinubu’s election, as happened to Abiola of the same ethnic stock 30 years ago?

    On the back of uninterrupted 24 years of democratic practice since the return of civilian governance in 1999, Nigerians have delivered a resounding and an unequivocal no to the crusaders and purveyors of an interim government.

    And they demand that the Department of State Services (DSS) that blew the whistle on the plot should expose, arrest and prosecute the plotters and backers of the illegal scheme, no matter how highly placed, and wherever they are.

     

    *Mr Ezomon, Journalist and Media Consultant, writes from Lagos, Nigeria.

  • Fight-to-finish in guber, house assembly races – By Ehichioya Ezomon

    Fight-to-finish in guber, house assembly races – By Ehichioya Ezomon

    As you read this piece, winners and losers would’ve emerged or are discernible among contestants for the March 18 governorship and state assembly poll across Nigeria.

    While governorship seats were up in 28 of the 36 states, the poll was for all 36 Houses of Assembly.

    Saturday’s franchise was a rehash of the contentious February 25 presidential and federal legislative balloting that produced a near-balance of power among three leading political parties.

    But this time, the poll was more explosive, climaxing the 2023 cycle, as the big four platforms tested their ultimate strengths.

    In February, the All Progressives Congress and Peoples Democratic Party won 12 states each, Labour Party 11 states, and New Nigeria Peoples Party secured one state.

    In Saturday’s election, the big prizes were states with huge voting publics that produced profound outcomes on February 25, to shred formbooks.

    Most pollsters had predicted a landslide for former Anambra Governor Peter Obi of Labour, while few pundits gave the day to former Lagos Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC, and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of PDP.

    In the end, Tinubu won in 12 states, including three states from PDP; lost 12 states controlled by the APC to PDP, LP and NNPP; secured the mandatory 25% in 30 states; and garnered the highest number of overall votes of 8,794,726.

    Atiku won in 12 states, including five states from APC; lost six PDP states to APC and LP; secured 25% in 19 states; and got second highest votes of 6,984,520.

    Obi came into the race with no states under the LP. But on Election Day, he snatched 11 states: six from the APC, four from PDP, and one from All Progressives Grand Alliance. Obi also secured 25% in 16 states, and scored 6,101,533 votes.

    The fourth leading candidate and former Kano Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, won his home turf; secured 25% in one state; and earned 1,496,688 votes.

    This was the standing, as poll opened on March 18, with the top parties looking to the presidential candidates to help consolidate their gains of February 25.

    But only Obi showed a semblance to continue where he stopped in the prior election, by visiting some states amidst a hero’s welcome by his “OBIdients” supporters.

    The visits weren’t campaigns per se, but they gave Obi a chance to renew his supporters’ spirits for the battle to reassert Labour’s formidability as a “structureless” party that’s redefined the political landscape.

    Obi aptly described his tours as a “stop by” to say, “a big thank you” to his supporters, even as he sought their “support for Labour’s candidates” in Saturday’s poll.

    Obi’s visits to Edo and Delta were non-rancorous, but his Anambra trip stirred controversy between him and Governor Chukwuma Soludo.

    In the lead-up to February 25, Prof. Soludo – Obi’s long-time political opponent – proclaimed his ambition won’t fly, and should drop out of the race.

    But Obi didn’t just win entire South-East, and six other states, he also secured the highest votes of 95% in Anambra.

    Obi claims to have no issues with Soludo and yet, asked his supporters to vote all Labour’s candidates, and urged them to “give in their best if elected.”

    It’s a coded recipe for legislative “anarchy” should Labour produce majority in the Anambra House of Assembly that impeached Obi on November 2, 2006 – barely eight months in office as Governor.

    Soludo didn’t take lightly Obi’s “instruction” to his supporters, and that raised the political ante a notch higher prior to March 18.

    Meanwhile, the imprimatur of President-elect Tinubu and Atiku was hardly noticeable in the campaigns for Saturday’s poll.

    Tinubu’s engagements included his home-coming to Lagos, to present his “Certificate of Return” to Oba Rilwan Akinolu of Lagos, as Tinubu had promised the Monarch before February 25.

    On the occasion that drew huge crowds at the airport to receive him, and at the Palace of the Oba, Tinubu likened the Certificate of Return to the “World Cup” trophy.

    In Abuja, there’s a parley of Senators-elect and House of Reps Members-elect with the hierarchy of the APC, which’s poised to have majority in both Chambers in the 10th National Assembly.

    The meeting was a groundwork for zoning of Presiding and Principal Officers’ positions that members have shifted to after the March 18 poll.

    But not before Tinubu informed the conclave that he had “no preferred candidate” among those posturing for positions in early June, post-Proclamation of the NASS by the new President to be sworn-in on May 29.

    Atiku’s main activity was joining a mass walk by PDP leaders and supporters to the office of the Independent National Electoral Commission in Abuja, to register the party’s rejection of the poll process and declaration of Tinubu as winner of the February election.

    PDP’s National Chairman Iyorcha Ayu, who presented a petition to INEC, called for cancellation of the election, and conduct of a fresh exercise “that will be credible and acceptable to Nigerians and the international community.”

    Atiku also made a “national broadcast” to PDP supporters not to be deterred by alleged INEC’s inefficiency and manipulation of the February 25 election.

    Pre-March 18, there’re alignments and realignments of forces, to correct alleged mistakes that gave wide berths to upstage mostly in the South-East, South-South, North-East and North-West.

    In the North, there’re reports of defections across parties, and in the South, social and political groups were upfront endorsing mainly governorship candidates.

    The adoptions were daily in Lagos that’s the central attraction, and an explosive battleground between APC and Labour – on the back of reported supremacy contest over who owns Lagos: Yoruba or Igbo.

    The Igbo have allegedly moved from calling Lagos a “No man’s land” to claiming, “We own Lagos.”

    The governorship was fought along that line, with majority Yoruba backing APC’s Governor Jide Sanwo-Olu, and Igbo and OBIdients that powered Obi’s victory on February 25 supporting

    Labour’s Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour – a Yoruba with Igbo mother and wife, who accusingly speaks Igbo fluently than Yoruba.

    From his social media posts expressing sympathy for Biafra and outlawed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), to active participation in the October 2020 #EndSARS protests that wreaked havoc on Lagos in the wake of alleged “massacre” at the Lekki Toll Gate on Lagos-Epe highway.

    And from reported pledge to create Biafra and #EndSARS Days, to depose Yoruba Obas and install Igbo Obis, to boasts of ending “Tinubu and APC’s hegemony in Lagos.”

    Many Yoruba – “original indigenes” or not of Lagos – see Rhodes-Vivour’s election as a forerunner to an alleged Igbo plot to “conquer Lagos, and entire South-West” – and the Yoruba have sounded the alarm accordingly.

    Such misgivings underpinned the March 18 election, which would prove or belie the hyped hullabaloo when the last ballot is called!

  • Labour’s last might test against 3 big parties – By Ehichioya Ezomon

    Labour’s last might test against 3 big parties – By Ehichioya Ezomon

    President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu and three other presidential contestants have onus to help their parties secure the states gained in the February 25 poll, and strive to add more states to their columns.

    In normal political times, the All Progressives Congress would reap a bandwagon effect from Tinubu’s new status as President-elect. But a “Third Force” in Labour Party has scrambled the political turfs of heavyweight politicians, including Tinubu, who lost his Lagos base in the February 25 presidential election. In the March 18 Governorship and House of Assembly election, can Tinubu help retain the seats in states the APC lost, mostly Lagos, and high-votes states as Kano, Kaduna, Katsina and Plateau?

    Will former Vice President Atiku Abubakar assist Peoples Democratic Party to produce governors for APC states of Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Gombe and Yobe he won on February 25, and attempt to retain Rivers, Delta, Oyo, Edo and Benue for PDP?

    Can New Nigeria Peoples Party candidate, Musa Kwankwaso, also prove that Kano is under his belt, by producing its Governor?

    For former Anambra Governor Peter Obi, it’s a must-task to produce Labour governors in the states he won, especially Lagos, Delta, Edo, Plateau and Nasarawa, to prove it wasn’t a fluke.

    There may be discordant tunes here and there, but the “OBIdients” that backed Obi’s phenomenal presidential run are going at full throttle in Saturday’s election.

    They’ll approach the postponed poll in the same manner they voted for Obi and other Labour’s candidates, “from top to bottom.”

    Facing prior March 11 poll, some OBIdients had suggested voting a few candidates, outside Labour’s, that have character, competence, capacity and experience.

    They’d vouched for candidates of the APC in Delta and Benue, All Progressives Grand Alliance in Enugu and the PDP in Oyo.

    Notably, Aisha Yesufu – face of the Obi-Datti campaign – had broached voting for APGA’s Frank Nweke Jnr, as Governor of Enugu “because he is the most qualified candidate to lead the State.”

    Reacting to Obi’s “blanket vote” for Labour’s candidates, Ms Yesufu tweeted: “God forbid I become what I want to change. I can never sacrifice competence for partisanship.

    “Frank Nweke Jnr @FrankNwekeII is the person for Enugu State. The people must be the winners and not individuals.”

    Contrarily, Obi had sent out a message to his diehard OBIdients, to vote all Labour’s candidates.

    In his tweet, Obi wrote: “As we pursue due process and defer to the rule of law (in his and LP’s petition at the Presidential Election Petitions Tribunal), I urge all the OBIdients in the various states to continue campaigning for our candidates, namely, Gbadebo Rhodes Vivour in Lagos, Chijoke Edeoga in Enugu, Patrick Dakum in Plateau, Alex Otti in Abia, Ken Pela in Delta, Ibrahim Mshelia in Borno, to name just a few.”

    In urging votes for Labour’s candidates, Obi highlighted their “competence, character, capacity and compassion.”

    But to polity watchers, many Labour’s candidates Obi drums support for don’t possess those qualities juxtaposed with other parties’ candidates that some OBIdients would rather they vote for.

    Thus, for Labour’s candidates in the 28 states where poll will hold on March 18, it’ll be “‘Eluu P’ (LP) from top to bottom” – the vote slogan of the OBIdients.

    Not surprising, the OBIdients, in Obi’s footsteps, don’t consider any other candidate in Lagos besides Labour’s as having the requisite qualifications to vie for governor.

    Like they’d rated Obi for the presidential poll, they’ve adjudged Labour’s Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour as unmatched by other candidates.

    Not even APC’s acknowledged high-performing Governor Jide Sanwo-Olu could pass the mustard of OBIdients’ reckoning.

    Actually, Sanwo-Olu is the target of the OBIdients from the on onset – and it wasn’t a coincidence that in listing the candidates that the OBIdients should campaign for, Obi named Rhodes-Vivour first.

    Defeating President-elect Tinubu in Lagos is an added advantage to removing Sanwo-Olu, because without the governorship, “Tinubu and APC are finished in Lagos.”

    Campaigns are tailored to focus on ethnic biases of Sanwo-Olu and Rhodes-Vivour: Who’s more Yoruba and “original” indigene of Lagos!

    The “indigenes of Lagos” agitators reckon Sanwo-Olu as a “Yoruba in Lagos,” even as the governor leans more on his competence and capacity to delivering remarkable achievements in the past four years, and the need for continuity, to sustain Lagos’ growth trajectory that’s made it the Fifth Largest Economy in Africa.

    On the flip side, the “Lagos indigenes” consider Rhodes-Vivour as a “true son of the soil” through whom they’ve vowed to ensure that “Lagos belongs to Lagosians.”

    Yet, Rhodes-Vivour is accused of several things: Parades a “fake Certificate” from MIT, Cambridge, MA, in the United States (Institute confirms he earned a Masters there); a non-Yoruba with mother and wife of Igbo extraction; speaks Igbo fluently than Yoruba; he’s a member of banned Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) that he wants involved in Lagos affairs.

    That he’s sympathy for Biafra he promises, if elected as Governor, to create a “Biafra Day” for in Lagos; pledges to depose Lagos (Yoruba) Obas and replace them with Igbo Obas (Obis); declare October 20 as #EndSARS Day, to commemorate alleged “massacre” of #EndSARS protesters at the Lekki Toll Gate, which he vows to demolish.

    These allegations – some traced to his social media posts – rather than weigh him down, have galvanised Rhodes-Vivour and vociferous OBIdients, and majority Igbo to identify with their “kin” at the poll.

    Taking a page from Obi’s playbook, Rhodes-Vivour tours “Igbo areas” of Lagos, which welcome him as a Rock Star with Igbo cultural songs and dances, and promises to vote him and other Labour candidates.

    Can Obi claim Lagos for Labour or be shown the way out from the “State of Excellence” by President-elect Tinubu? It’s six days away!

  • Lagos 2023 and March 11 messy battle – By Ehichioya Ezomon

    Lagos 2023 and March 11 messy battle – By Ehichioya Ezomon

    Members and supporters of the All Progressives Congress grapple with the fear of losing Lagos to opposition Labour Party in the March 11 governorship and state legislative election in the state.

    Labour – buoyed by its stunning defeat of the APC in Lagos that’s home to President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu – is already measuring the drapes at the State House, Marina, for occupation in the next four years.

    Labour’s candidate, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour – and the ObIdients followers of Presidential candidate Peter Obi – boasts about the party surpassing the votes that returned Obi on February 25 in Lagos.

    At an interactive session with stakeholders, Rhodes-Vivour unveiled Labour’s strategies to winning the contest to unseat the 24-year APC government in Lagos.

    “We are talking, we have been in alliance, and we are still talking with the owners of the structures of the PDP; the owners of the structures, the people that matter in the PDP,” Rhodes-Vivour said in answer to a question.

    “And we are sure that in the coming days, we are going to come to a full alignment with them, to ensure that we take (over) Lagos in this next election,” Rhodes-Vivour added.

    Prior to the presidential poll, speculations pointed to a “working agreement” in which supporters of Peoples Democratic Party would vote for Labour’s Obi, while Labour’s supporters would vote for PDP’s governorship candidate, Abdul-Azeez Adediran, alias Jandor, in Saturday’s election. Dr Adediran denied such a pact, but canvassers were seen sharing flyers embossed with photographs of Obi and Adediran for President and Governor, respectively.

    Has the alleged pact collapsed owing to Obi’s Lagos win, and the realisation that the governor’s seat is a breath away from Labour’s grasp? Whatever Labour’s permutations, huddles await Rhodes-Vivour, a Lagos indigene, who’s been tagged a “non-Yoruba” due to his mother’s (and wife’s) Igbo extraction.

    To demonstrate his affinity to Igbo by birth, Rhodes-Vivour added “Chinedu” to his name when he aspired for Senate in 2019. The new battle cry for the Yoruba and supporters of the APC is to halt the reported “agenda” of the Igbo to control Lagos that they (Igbo) have labelled a “No man’s land” – a slogan they’ve lately changed to, “Na we Igbo own Lagos,” claiming to’ve contributed to its growth and development.

    The Yoruba fear that the February 25 poll has emboldened the large Igbo population in Lagos to believe they can produce a governor of “Igbo extraction” in Rhodes-Vivour.

    Rhodes-Vivour has more worries in his alleged sympathy for Biafra, espousal of involvement of outlawed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) in Lagos affairs, and creation of an Igbo Oba of Lagos.

    These are traced to Rhodes-Vivour’s social media posts, which have been widely reposted and retweeted in the past week.

    Will these allegations impact on the poll prospects for Rhodes-Vivour, considering that Obi’s win in Lagos is an energiser to party supporters that, “We can do it again on March 11?”

    That’s the dilemma of the Yoruba and APC supporters rooting for re-election of Governor Jide Sanwo-Olu and his deputy, Obafemi Hamzat, in Saturday’s poll.

    One of the conspiracy theories post-February 25 is that while Tinubu was away fighting for President, he opened his flanks for Obi to gain poll access in Lagos.

    It’s the first time that a party not controlled by Tinubu would get a foothold in, and win, Lagos – a monumental failure traced to the “sons of the soil,” who even regard Tinubu as a non-indigene.

    With his eye on Abuja, Tinubu left Lagos APC for the “real indigenes” (Omo Eko), but they made a mess of the opportunity to showcase their flaunted political prowess, letting another “non-indigene” in Obi to defeat them on their turf.

    The “wailing” Yoruba and APC supporters now fight from the rear, “to reclaim our land,” and the battle is nasty, with everything thrown into it.

    The election is fought not on the pedestal of character, capacity and competence – which Governor Sanwo-Olu has in abundance, as demonstrated
    in the past four years.

    Neither is the poll on issues that will add value to the livelihoods of suffering Lagosians, but on ethnic sentiments that polarise Lagos – a home to a multitude of ethnic nationalities from across Nigeria.

    The fault lines of ethnic mistrust between Yoruba and Igbo in Lagos has widened since the February 25 defeat of Tinubu by Obi in the state. The Yoruba attribute the loss to their liberal disposition towards “non-indigenes,” particularly the Igbo, whose huge population can dictate the political direction of Lagos going forward.

    That’s the trajectory the Yoruba and APC supporters will attempt to reverse on March 11 – to halt election of Rhodes-Vivour they see as the quickest route to an alleged “Igbo domination” plot of Lagos.

    To indicate how a “non-indigene” or “non-Yoruba” like Rhodes-Vivour should be treated, the “Lagos for Lagos indigenes” agitators have posted a video of a man addressing a gathering in Enugu.

    The speaker asked if the audience would allow a person – whose parents originated from Ebonyi – to be governor of Enugu State. He got a loud “no” in response.

    If this reasoning is sustained, why should Tinubu – acclaimed as an indigene of Osun State – come to Lagos, adopt the Tinubu family name, and win elections as Senator, Governor and President?

    What about Tinubu’s children, whose mother is Itsekiri? Will they be labelled “non-indigenes” of Lagos? Ditto for Tinubu’s son, Seyi, whose wife is Igbo! Will his children be “non-indigenes” because their mother is Igbo?

    Toeing this pigeon-holing of Nigerians is againt the 1999 Constitution that forbids bigotry based on gender, race or creed.

    Meanwhile, the new reality has resulted in a reversal of roles, as ObIdients – with a surfeit of anti-Tinubu Yoruba – have literally ceded the social media space to Yoruba, to lament Labour’s win of Lagos on February 25, and the potential for yet another loss of the state on March 11.

    As Lagosians choose a new governor, will they vote for continuity of Sanwo-Olu or try a new hand in Rhodes-Vivour, to pilot the “State of Excellence” that’s the Fifth Largest Economy in Africa?

    Watchers of the polity hope that rationality – which’s a scarce commodity among politicians and supporters – won’t be scarcer on Election Day. The die is cast!

  • 2023 countdown (8): Tinubu leads other candidates for February 25 – By Ehichioya Ezomon

    2023 countdown (8): Tinubu leads other candidates for February 25 – By Ehichioya Ezomon

    It’s apt to lead this article with the phrase – “Barring any political earthquake or a February surprise” – that closed previous instalments of the “Weekly Prediction” on the 2023 countdown series.

    As noted in those two serials, only a novel political revolution could prevent the presidential ticket of the All Progressives Congress from winning the poll in the first ballot on February 25.

    Hasn’t the “February surprise” occurred, courtesy of the Federal Government Naira redesign that has unleased untold hardship on Nigerians in peace time?

    Nigerians have been unable to access their hard-earned money the government forced them to deposit in banks, in exchange for new N200, N500 and N1,000 notes.

    Family and social lives are disrupted; businesses in the informal sector are grounded; and the overall outlook for the macro economy points southwards.

    There’re street protests, leading to destructions and deaths, as hungry citizens vent anger on facilities of money deposit banks that refuse to dispense even the unaffected lower denominations at the ATM and over-the-counter points.

    Collorary to inability to access money is a looming constitutional crisis that can result in breakdown of law and order and anarchy in the land.

    President Buhari and Central Bank Governor Godwin Emefiele have refused to obey a Supreme Court order to pause the process of withdrawal of the old banknotes until a Writ by some State Governments for extension of the deadline was determined.

    Following Buhari’s broadcast, making the old N200 note as legal tender till April 10, some State Governors have issued directives to residents to continue to transact businesses in N200, N500 and N1,000 banknotes under litigation.

    These controversies may impact the electoral fortunes of the APC headed by Buhari, who craves to handover to the party candidates, former Lagos Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu and former Borno Governor Kashim Shettima.

    Buhari, who chairs the APC Presidential Campaign Council, has rallied for the Tinubu-Shettima ticket in several states, telling the rally goers that he would handover to Tinubu on May 29, 2023.

    How could Buhari desire Tinubu as his successor, and yet introduce the currency redesign in the midst of a General Election in which Tinubu vies on the APC platform?

    Speculations swirl that Buhari – directly or via the “Aso Rock cabal” – would sabotage the APC ticket, for power to remain in the North after his (Buhari) eight-year tenure.

    Opposition elements have fed on these rumours for political gains; while some vocal APC governors have accused the Presidency of intents to ensure Tinubu and the party lose the 2023 poll.

    How will Nigerians, reeling from the hardship imposed by the APC-controlled government, vote for Tinubu, who they blame for helping to form and fund the APC, and campaigning for the election and re-election of Buhari as president?

    But three factors have helped Tinubu’s cause lately. One, Nigerians have begun to separate him from the unfavourable policies of the Buhari administration. Two, Tinubu has majorly been on the side of the people in their plight over the Naira redesign. Three, his appearance at an interview session with the Nigerian Economic Summit Group has had positive reviews, even by supporters of other candidates.

    Tinubu, aware of concerns by Nigerians, has put up a robust campaign – backed to the hilt by the APC governors – to weather the seeming storms against him.

    The strategy appeared to pay off – with Tinubu looking good to have the day on February 25 – before aftermaths of the Naira redesign threw a wrench in the works.

    The next five days will determine if Tinubu will prevail amid scarcity of petrol and banknotes, and alleged plans by some Northern APC governors to declare poll support for former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party.

    Still, Tinubu’s prospects of a win were brightened last week by Rivers and Oyo states showing strong signs of an APC pick.

    If that materialised, Tinubu would clear Borno, Cross River, Ekiti, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Rivers, Sokoko, Yobe and Zamfara. He could also pick all or some of Bauchi, Edo, Kano, Kebbi and the FCT.

    Benue was moved to the Atiku and Delta State Governor Ifeanyi Okowa column last week due to PDP’s marathon rallies in Makurdi, Gboko and Oturpo on February 8.

    But with full-throated adoption of former Anambra Governor Peter Obi by Governor Samuel Ortom, Benue has slipped from the PDP, leaving Atiku with six states of Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta, Plateau and Taraba.

    Atiku may pick additional four states of Bauchi, Edo, Kano and Kebbi and the FCT, while he’s a net gain of 25% in over 30 states.

    Doubts about Ortom’s genuine endorsement of the ticket of Obi and former Senator Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed evaporated on February 16 when Ortom roused a polical gathering for a drawn-out chant of “Obi”, “Obi”, “Obi”.

    Flowing therefrom, Obi can secure straight wins in Abia, Anambra, Benue, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo, and 25% spread in about 10 states.

    There’s also a chance of success for Obi in the FCT, in regard to his catchment area voter-population in Abuja, and the audience that graced his rally on February 9.

    Can the ticket of former Kano Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Bishop Isaac Idahosa win Kano that’s under threats from the APC and PDP? The answer is in the air, even as it can secure 25% in four or five states.

    Five days are a long time in politics for this week’s “Prediction” to be altered by unforeseen variables till the poll closes on February 25!

    *Mr Ezomon, Journalist and Media Consultant, writes from Lagos, Nigeria.

  • 2023 countdown (7): APC, PDP consolidate stands for February 25 – By Ehichioya Ezomon

    2023 countdown (7): APC, PDP consolidate stands for February 25 – By Ehichioya Ezomon

    The SMS below was received on February 8, 2023, in reaction to the first “Weekly Prediction” in the sixth instalment of the running 2023 countdown series. The message reads:

    “Hi, your article of Mon. Feb 6, ’23 in the New Telegraph refers. The article is good, except for some of your postulations. APC cannot take Cross River, Rivers, nor PDP take Plateau, Bayelsa. These are States for LP. It’s not late yet, write in favour of LP.

    “Is it correct for a Muslim to handover to a Muslim-Muslim, nor a Fulani man taking over by (from) a Fulani man? While (why) would a northerner handover to another northerner? Cheers!”

    The last question first! Nigeria’s amended 1999 Constitution doesn’t forbid a Muslim-Muslim or Christian-Christian ticket, or a Muslim handing over to a Muslim, or a Fulani handing over to another Fulani or another ethnic person handing over to their kindred.

    But due to the diverse nature of  Nigeria, with hundreds of ethnic nationalities, the Constitution encourages power rotation between the North and South, to ensure a sense of belonging.

    Accordingly, the political class attempts to enshrine power rotation in their constitutions, but which politicians observe more in the breach, such that led to a division in the Peoples Democratic Party in the 2023 election cycle.

    It’s unethical and unprofessional for a Journalist – as an observer – to favour a party in forecasting outcomes of elections – in this case, the February 25 poll.

    So, there’s no “writing (predicting) in favour” of the Labour Party in Cross River, Rivers, Plateau and Bayelsa if the facts don’t support the LP winning the states.

    Factors determining winning probability are: Candidate’s experience, competence, capacity and capability to get the job done; party structures; voting pattern; the number of states parties control; representions at the legislatures; the political dynamics at national and state levels; ethnic, sectional and religious biases; the war chest; size of rallies as a sign of popularity and acceptability; and ability to unite the society.

    Given these factors – and the political interplay across the country in the past one week – the LP may not clinch Cross River, Rivers, Plateau and Bayelsa.

    The intra-party feuds in Cross River’s All Progressives Congress have been resolved, allowing a united front for a massive rally for the Tinubu-Shettima ticket in Calabar, and more mop-up rallies for consolidation led by Governor Ben Ayade and APC’s National Women Leader, Dr Betta Edu.

    In Rivers, Governor Nyesom Wike’s backing for the APC Tinubu-Shettima ticket may’ve left the realm of speculations, as giant posters of Tinubu and Shettima adorn strategic places in Port Harcourt, even as Wike’s granted the APC rent-free venue for its rally.

    The combined camp of former Governor and Transportation Minister, Rotimi Amaechi and the minority faction of the APC; Wike’s majority camp of the PDP; and Governorship Candidate Magnus Abe of the Social Democratic Party and the party members will give victory to the APC in Rivers.

    Plateau State hasn’t been an easy shoo-in for the APC since 2015. Though Governor Simon Lalong is the director-general of the APC Campaign Council, the PDP may cash-in on the incursion of the LP eating into the APC strongholds to hold the day on February 25.

    With no noticeable division in the Bayelsa PDP under Governor Douye Diri, the joint ticket of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Delta State Governor Ifeanyi Okowa is good to go, save the APC being able to replicate its strong showing to secure its court-aborted governorship seat in 2019.

    So, the LP – parading former Anambra Governor Peter Obi and former Senator Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed – hasn’t the ground game to swing Cross River, Rivers, Plateau and Bayelsa to its column.

    No major changes in the past week to alter the states locked down by the leading parties. But the APC and PDP have consolidated and/or expanded their coasts.

    Besides receiving 25% in about 33/34 states and the FCT, the Tinubu-Shettima ticket can add Jigawa and Katsina to 16 states it’s projected to win as at last week, bringing the number to 18.

    They include: Borno, Cross River, Ekiti, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Katsina, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Rivers, Sokoko, Yobe and Zamfara. The APC can also pick any of Bauchi, Edo, Kano, Kebbi, Oyo and the FCT.

    Despite Benue Governor Samuel Ortom’s adoption of the Obi-Datti ticket, the state may slip from the LP owing to the marathon rallies the Atiku-Okowa campaign held in  Makurdi, Gboko and Oturpo on February 8, and the fact that Ortom remains a PDP member vying for a senatorial seat, and thus can’t wholeheartedly campaign for LP.

    From this scenario – coupled with court resolution of the legal tangle around the APC governorship candidate, Revd Fr Hyacinth Alia – the Benue presidential votes are up for grabs between PDP and LP.

    With a gain of 25% in all 36 states and the FCT, the Atiku-Okowa ticket may add Benue to the six states it can win, to include Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Benue, Delta, Plateau and Taraba.

    Yet, the ticket may’ve lost Jigawa and Katsina as possible picks, leaving five states of Bauchi, Edo, Kano, Kebbi and Oyo and the FCT.

    The Obi-Datti ticket still has 25% in 10 states, but its straight win in Benue has waned, leaving Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo.

    Contrarily, the Obi-Datti chances of winning the FCT have increased, aftermath of the huge audience that graced its rally on February 9.

    The outlook for former Kano Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Bishop Isaac Idahosa winning Kano is under threats from the APC and PDP, even as the ticket can secure 25% in four or five states.

    Barring any political earthquake or a February surprise, this prediction stands till February 20, when the final projection will be made for the February 25 presidential poll.

     

    *Mr Ezomon, Journalist and Media Consultant, writes from Lagos, Nigeria.

  • 2023 countdown (6): How Tinubu, Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso stand – By Ehichioya Ezomon

    2023 countdown (6): How Tinubu, Atiku, Obi, Kwankwaso stand – By Ehichioya Ezomon

    It’s 19 days to the February 25 presidential poll, and there’s anxiety that a winner might not emerge among the 18 candidates on Election Day, resulting in a re-off for the two leading candidates.

    The amended 1999 Constitution mandates that for a person to be declared the winner, they must score the highest number of votes cast, and obtain one-quarter (25 per cent) of votes in the 36 States of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja.

    Not surprising, each of the four leading candidates of the All Progressives Congress, Peoples Democratic Party, Labour Party and the New Nigeria Peoples Party is laying claim to winning at the first ballot on February 25.

    Particularly cocksure of victory is LP’s Peter Obi who, sharing the ticket with Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, claims the 36 States and the FCT “are in the bag.”

    The Obi-Datti campaign’s confidence is fueled by online polls that have projected Obi as ahead of the pack – with wide margins – were the election to be held during the pendency of the polls.

    Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and his running mate, Delta State Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, on the platform of the PDP, were the first to boast to secure the Presidency at the first vote.

    In a November 19, 2022, statement, Kola Ologbondiyan, spokesman for the PDP Presidential Campaign Council, said the Atiku-Okowa campaign “is confident that by every indices and data available, our candidate, Atiku Abubakar, will win the election of February 25, 2023 at the first run.”

    “The campaign urges INEC to deploy its resources towards conducting a free, fair, transparent and credible election that will be generally accepted by majority of Nigerians,” Ologbondiyan said.

    He asked the INEC “not to listen to diversionary narratives by apologists of All Progressives Congress (APC), who are ostensibly seeking ways to derail the election, having realised that their Party has been rejected.”

    “We urge Nigerians to remain resolute in their choice, Atiku Abubakar, and take every step necessary within the ambit of the law to protect their votes, Ologbondiyan added.

    The statement comes as reaction to INEC’s plan to print two sets of ballot papers – for a possible run-off election in case there’s no clear winner in the main poll.

    At a November 18, 2022, roundtable with media Editors and Bureau Chiefs in Abuja, INEC’s Commissioner for Information and Voter Education Committee, Festus Okoye, said the printing of two sets of ballot papers was a standard practice since 1999, in readiness for run-off elections (for President and Governor), in line with the provisions of the 1999 Constitution.

    Former Lagos State Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu, contesting along with former Borno State Governor Kashim Shettima, came into the race with the viral “Emi lo kan” (It’s my turn) mantra.

    Lately, he’s been projecting victory for his joint ticket following a whirlwind electioneering across the states, with a couple of the rallies held same day – the first candidate to do so this poll cycle.

    As a boost for Tinubu, President Muhammadu Buhari’s iterated his commitment to the success of the Tinubu-Shettima ticket, and other APC candidates down the line.

    Former Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, and his deputy candidate, Bishop Isaac Idahosa, hasn’t been as boisterous about victory as other candidates.

    But relishing his underdog status in the race, Kwankwaso says the outcome of the poll “will shock Nigerians,” as he’ll defeat Tinubu, Atiku and Obi on Election Day.

    Each of the candidates bandies his experience, competence, and capacity to get the job done; popularity and reach; and ability to unite a bitterly divided society.

    As the hustlings move into the homestretch – with a few states yet to cover before the February 23 deadline – the candidates are flaunting the size of their rallies as a measure of acceptance by the electorate, and their chances of winning the election.

    However, as a work in progress every week henceforth, let’s project the states that each of the leading candidates can win outrightly, the number of states leaning their way, and from those they can secure 25% based on the factors below:

    Party structures in terms of voting pattern and the number of states controlled; representions at the legislatures; the dynamics at play at national and state levels; ethnic, sectional and religious biases; and the war chest available to the candidates for the campaigns.

    But three principal developments may affect the outcome of the presidential poll. First is the entry of Obi on the LP platform, with the likelihood of sweeping the five South-East states occupied by the PDP, APC and All Progressives Grand Alliance.

    Second is the APC Muslim-Muslim ticket of Tinubu and Shettima that has unsettled the Christian-Muslim, Muslim-Christian balance of power between Southern and Northern Nigeria since 1999.

    And third is the division in the PDP between the leadership and five aggrieved governors (PDP-G5), who’ve distanced themselves from the party’s campaign council and the Atiku-Okowa ticket, and with two of the governors backing candidates of other parties.

    Going into the election, the APC controls 21 states, the PDP 14 states, and the APGA one state.

    Given the listed factors – and barring any political earthquake or a February surprise – Tinubu may receive 25% in 34 states and FCT, claim 16 states outrightly, and stand a 50% chance to pick all or some of six other states.

    The states for Tinubu are: Borno, Cross River, Ekiti, Gombe, Kaduna, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Rivers, Sokoko, Yobe and Zamfara. And he can pick all or some of Bauchi, Edo, Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Oyo and FCT.

    Atiku may gain 25% threshold in all 36 states and FCT, win six states outrightly, and a 50% chance of securing additional seven states.

    The states for Atiku are: Adamawa, A/Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta, Plateau and Taraba. He can pick Bauchi, Edo, Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Oyo and FCT.

    Obi can score 25% in 10 states, and win six, including Abia, Anambra, Benue, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo and FCT.

    For Kwankwaso, he may secure 25% in four or five states and a bright chance to pick Kano State.

    As stated earlier, the projection of the states likely to fall to the four leading presidential candidates is dynamic and a work in progress, which configuration may change by this time next week or in the last week before the February 25 poll.

    *Mr Ezomon, Journalist and Media Consultant, writes from Lagos, Nigeria.

  • 2023 countdown (5): PDP-G5 boastful, yet fearful – By Ehichioya Ezomon

    2023 countdown (5): PDP-G5 boastful, yet fearful – By Ehichioya Ezomon

    Twenty-seven days to the February 25 presidential election, the Peoples Democratic Party hasn’t found a common ground with its five governors opposed to the National Chairman Iyiorcha Ayu.

    The PDP-G5 – chaired by Benue State Governor Samuel Ortom, and headed by Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike – have made Ayu’s resignation a condition for joining the Presidential Campaign Council, to canvass votes for candidate Atiku Abubakar and running mate Ifeanyi Okowa at the poll.

    Even as the Atiku-Okowa campaign has “moved on” with the electioneering, the absence of the PDP-G5 in the process is glaring.

    They’ve abstained from the Atiku-Okowa campain trail nationwide, and at rallies held in their states.

    And Wike’s sustained a rhetoric of running down, and predicting poll defeat for the Atiku-Okowa ticket without his rebel group’s backing.

    On October 14, 2022, Wike stated that the PDP had won some states in general and off-season polls due to his financial support.

    “I have supported many states, financially, to win elections in the past, including Plateau, Ondo and Cross River, and they cannot deny it,” Wike said at a press conference in Port Harcourt, Rivers capital city.

    “If I leave the party today, the PDP cannot win the (general) election. If the five PDP governors say they are leaving today… we are not just ordinary governors, we are very committed and strong,” Wike said.

    “There is nobody that wants to win an election and still continues the way they (PDP leadership) are doing,” Wike added.

    Wike and Abia State Governor Okezie Ikpeazu, Benue Governor Ortom, Enugu Governor Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi and Oyo Governor Seyi Makinde have excluded the Atiku-Okowa ticket in the campaigns for candidates for governor and federal and state legislative seats in their respective states.

    Ortom’s even raised the bar by adopting the Labour Party candidate, Peter Obi and his joint ticket holder, Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, for the presidential poll.

    Although Ortom’s said he couldn’t join the Obi-Datti campaign train because he’s a member of the PDP, he’s used every opportune moment to recommend the LP ticket.

    Ortom was quick to back former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s adoption of the Obi-Datti ticket in a viral letter to Nigerian youths on New Year Day.

    Other PDP-G5 governors haven’t gone the Ortom route, but Wike’s put the PDP and the Atiku-Okowa campaign on tenterhooks, as he blows hot and cold – that the time is running out for the party.

    Arguably, both sides – the PDP and Atiku-Okowa campaign versus the PDP-5G – are in a fix, and that’s why a blistering and blustering Wike and others are hesitant to even go half as Ortom’s done.

    The governors can’t go for broke and adopt Obi, the All Progressives Congress candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu or the New Nigeria Peoples Party candidate, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, to avoid disruption of elections in their states.

    If Wike adopts Obi, Tinubu or Kwankwaso, and their party wins the presidential poll in Rivers, won’t a bandwagon effect occur in the March 11 governorship and House of Assembly election in Rivers?

    Will Wike – spoiling for a fight to install his successor – be able to swing election for his candidates on the platform of the PDP?

    A similar scenario may play out in the four states of Abia, Benue, Enugu and Oyo if the governors were to back Obi, Tinubu or Kwankwaso, with dire outcomes for their own candidacies.

    Makinde bids for re-election as governor, while the trio of Ikpeazu, Ugwuanyi and Ortom vie for senate seats in the National Assembly.

    Backing a ticket other than the Atiku-Okowa ticket isn’t a wise decision unless the PDP-5G are certain that voters can split votes for president and other positions on the same or different platforms.

    This dilemma is pronounced in Rivers and Oyo where prominent members of the PDP are opposed to Wike and Makinde’s stand against the Atiku-Okowa ticket.

    The “opposition” figures within the PDP in the two states have vowed to stand by and vote for the Atiku-Okowa ticket on February 25.

    Yet, the PDP and Atiku-Okowa campaign walk a thin line, as they hope for a last-minute change of mind by the rebellious governors.

    That accounts for the reported scheduling and/or rescheduling of the PDP campaigns in Benue and Rivers, to enable the governors to host and join in the campaigns.

    Meanwhile, unless the North has decided to vote its own in former Vice President Abubakar, it may be difficult, if not impossible, for the Atiku-Okowa ticket to triumph over a resurgent Tinubu-Kashim Shettima ticket.

    The new spirit in the Tinubu-Shettima ticket is infused by President Muhammadu Buhari’s restated resolve to campagn for all the APC candidates, to secure victory at the general election.

    Within one week of that avowal, Buhari’s rallied in Adamawa (Atiku’s home state), Yobe and Bauchi – all in the North-East considered as Atiku’s political turf.

    If the the President – also expected to campaign in Katsina, Zamfara and Kebbi – keeps the schedule and galvanises similar crowds as witnessed in Adamawa, Yobe, Bauchi and Plateau State, the PDP boast of owning majority votes in the North may become a mirage.

    Hence the PDP and Atiku-Okowa ticket need massive votes from Abia, Benue, Enugu, Rivers and Oyo to counter APC’s votes in the North.

    It’s a dicey situation in which Wike and his colleagues seem to hold the aces over an expectant Atiku-Okowa ticket that wants to roll over the rival Tinubu-Shettima, Obi-Datti and Kwankwaso-Isaac Idahosa tickets on February 25.

     

    *Mr Ezomon, Journalist and Media Consultant, writes from Lagos, Nigeria.

  • 2023 countdown (4): Buhari, Obasanjo right on foreign interference – By Ehichioya Ezomon

    2023 countdown (4): Buhari, Obasanjo right on foreign interference – By Ehichioya Ezomon

    Former President Olusegun Obasanjo allegedly wrote a letter to the British government, urging it not to interfere in the February-March General Election in Nigeria.

    But Obasanjo – a renowned “letter writer” on mostly Nigerian politico-socio-economic affairs, and not one to retract his statements – has denied penning the missive.

    Yet, the warning was timely due to the importance of the poll, and the interest shown on its conduct and outcome by Nigerians and the global community.

    Particularly concerning is the presidential election of February 25 that involves 18 political parties and 18 candidates, accordingly.

    It’s the second time in Nigeria’s democratic system that a President will hand over to another after a maximum eight-year tenure of two terms of four years.

    Obasanjo, who ran and won in 1999 and 2003 under the Peoples Democratic Party, handed over in 2007 to Umaru Musa Yar’Adua on the same platform of the PDP.

    Yar’Adua didn’t complete his tenure, as he died in 2010, and was succeeded by his Vice President Goodluck Jonathan, who won in 2011 but failed re-election in 2015.

    Opposition leader Muhammadu Buhari won the 2015 and 2019 polls, flying the flag of the All Progressives Congress.

    Buhari, who completes his eight-year tenure on May 29, will handover the baton to one of the 18 presidential contestants.

    Four candidates lead the pack of 18 right from the primaries held between May and June 2022.

    They’re former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, former Lagos State Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC, former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi of the Labour Party, and former Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party.

    It’s been a titanic battle by the quartet trying to outwit each other in the media and on the campaign trail they’ve extended overseas.

    Atiku and Obi have visited the United States – and Obi’s toured several European countries – to drum supports for their ambition.

    Three of the candidates – Tinubu, Obi and Kwankwaso – have taken turns at Chatham House in London, to sell their action plans to Nigerians there and elsewhere.

    Could the externalising their campaigns attract foreign interference that may impinge on Nigeria’s domestic affairs?

    It’s a possibility, especially in the wake of Atiku’s visit to London – and on account of a statement by the Presidential Campaign Council of the PDP on January 10.

    Dele Momodu, the PCC’s Director of Strategic Communications, said the UK government had invited Atiku to discuss areas of potential collaboration between Nigeria and Britain under an Atiku presidency.

    Momodu’s words: “Five weeks to election and the UK government invites front leading candidate to discuss areas of future potential collaboration between both countries.

    “An internal source is quoted saying an internal poll by the British government shows AA (Atiku Abubakar) as the leading candidate and the possibility of working together for a more effective Post BREXIT world which promises to be a win win for both countries.

    “This is especially imperative as the UK seeks to improve and increase trade partnership with Nigeria.”

    Britain hasn’t denied the statement, but Momodu’s heads up should brace Nigeria for external attempts to “steal” the February poll for a particular candidate.

    Thus, the said letter by Obasanjo – a global citizen that has capacity to sniff and pick up Intel about the 2023 poll – is apt to warn the British government to “back off the poll and allow Nigerians to decide the outcome,” the media report.

    Obasanjo reportedly told the British authorities that it won’t be business as usual, recalling a reported 2002 plan by Britain to remove him from office via his 2003 re-election bid.

    But Obasanjo has debunked the letter through his media aide, Kedinde Akinyemi, who, on January 12, stated that apart from the January 1 letter to Nigerian youths, and the other to Prof. Toyin Falola on his 70th birthday, “there has been no other public or private letter written to anybody.”

    “The reading public is, for the umpteenth time, reminded that only a statement duly signed by Chief Olusegun Obasanjo or by his Media Assistant, Kehinde Akinyemi, are to be allowed into the media space,” Akinyemi said.

    “If need be, necessary checks can be made to confirm the authenticity of such documents before publication to avoid any embarrassment.”

    Akinyemi also denied Obasanjo’s alleged plan to scheme the February 25 poll for which he’s adopted Obi of the LP.

    “The trending story on the alleged plan by the former President to collude with the electoral body in the Presidential election of February 25 is completely false,” Akinyemi added.

    Had the said Obasanjo letter counted, it would’ve aided Buhari’s warning against foreign interference in the election, as he’s promised to bequeath a legacy of credible franchise to Nigeria.

    Buhari renewed that pledge on January 12 when he received Letters of Credence from Ambassadors to Nigeria, and during an iftar dinner (a meal held every day during Ramadan at sunset) for Envoys at the State House in Abuja.

    The envoys, who presented their Letters of Credence, were: Nicolas Lang, Switzerland; Annika Hahn Englund, Sweden; Peter Ryan, Ireland; Kitiisak Klomchit, Thailand; Nicolas Nyouky, Senegal and David Chaot of South Sudan.

    To the Ambassadors, Buhari said: “As you’re all aware, the tenure of this Administration ends on 29th May, 2023. Typical of election years all over the world, the tempo of political activities is often high.

    “That’s the nature of democracy. I’m committed to bequeathing a stronger culture of credible elections to Nigeria than I met.

    “As Nigeria goes through this trajectory, I urge our friends in the global community, represented by you, the Diplomatic Corps, to adopt a positive role that reinforces the doctrine of respect for our internal affairs and respect for facts devoid of pre-conceived notions and bias.”

    Buhari also sent a warning to domestic mischiefmakers, that he’d use all legal means to protect Nigerians’ votes during the poll.

    Those planning to rig the elections should think twice “because I intend to resolutely protect and defend the sacred will of the Nigerian people, to be expressed through the ballot box,” Buhari said.

    Not done with the Envoys, Buhari tacitly steered them from poking their nose in 2023 election, to areas that would benefit Nigeria and their respective countries.

    Buhari said: “As you settle down to your diplomatic responsibilities, I am hopeful that you will appreciate the political, socio-economic and cultural diversities which are the hallmarks of the Nigerian nation.

    “I encourage you to build friendships and take time to fraternise across the length and breadth of the country, including interfacing with both the public and private sectors in a bid to explore areas of mutual benefit to your respective countries and Nigeria.

    “Sectors such as healthcare, education, infrastructure, local manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, agribusiness, transportation, solid minerals are areas of particular interest to us and foreign investors alike.

    “This will enable us to collectively strive to resuscitate all our countries’ economies in the post pandemic global recovery processes.”

    The Ambassadors, at the separate events – receipt of their Letters of Credence and iftar dinner – wished Nigeria “peaceful, free and fair elections.” They pledged the international community’s support for Nigeria “before, during and after the elections,” and extended their goodwill to President Buhari in his remaining days in office.

    It’s doubtful if these Envoys can stop their home governments’ intents to interfere in the General Election, as they take orders, and implement in their host countries.

     

    *Mr Ezomon, Journalist and Media Consultant, writes from Lagos, Nigeria.

  • 2023 countdown (3): PDP’s laser focus on Tinubu’s ‘baggage’ – By Ehichioya Ezomon

    2023 countdown (3): PDP’s laser focus on Tinubu’s ‘baggage’ – By Ehichioya Ezomon

    Politics is a game of intrigues in which politicians attempt to outwit each other by any means possible – including underhand tactics – to gain advantage.

    Like in war, all is fair in politics. Politicians can insitigate crises in the opponent’s camp, especially during elections, such as the 2023 General Election in Nigeria.

    The Peoples Democratic Party – battling to retake power it’d lost in 2015 – is even conjuring issues in the All Progressives Congress for the February 25 presidential poll.

    As an opposition, the PDP desires discord in the APC, to prompt the defeat of the APC ticket holders, Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Kashim Shettima. Check these headlines:

    *Buhari, Adamu’s absence from Tinubu’s campaign evidence of abandonment – PDP campaign (November 23, 2022).

    *Buhari’ll campaign for Tinubu, others in 2023 – Presidency (December 21, 2022).

    *Don’t waste your time on Tinubu, PDP campaign urges Buhari (December 22, 2022).

    *Dragging Buhari into campaigns can’t help you, PDP mocks Tinubu (January 4, 2023).

    *2023: Buhari bows to pressure, promises to lead Tinubu’s campaign in 10 states (January 5, 2023).

    *Atiku-Okowa mocks Tinubu over Buhari’s Adamawa snub (January 10, 2023).

    These captions represent statements issued by the PDP Presidential Campaign Council, in reaction to or remarks about real or imagined crises in the APC.

    The aim is to put Tinubu’s alleged negatives on the front burner, as campaigns for the February poll reach a feverish pitch.

    Let’s examine these headlines from the November 23 screamer that President Muhammadu Buhari and the APC National Chairman Abdullahi Adamu had abandoned the Tinubu-Shettima campaign.

    As Chairman, Buhari inaugurated the APC campaign council in Abuja on October 21, and lunch of the Tinubu-Shettima campaigns in Jos, Plateau State, on November 15.

    Thereafter, Buhari didn’t participate in other APC campaign stops, despite his pledge to ensure a successor on the party platform.

    This fuelled rumours that Buhari and Adamu had abandoned the Tinubu-Shettima ticket due to Tinubu’s alleged baggage.

    But presidential spokesman, Garba Shehu, issued a statement on December 21, reaffirming Buhari’s commitment to campaign for all APC candidates in 2023.

    Shehu said: “The President assures All Progressives Congress and its candidates in the elections next year (2023) that he is ready at all times to campaign for the Presidential Candidate and all party candidates with ‘full energy and conviction.’

    “This is to dispel expressed concerns… that the President has not featured in campaigns since the national launch in Jos, Plateau State and to stress that while he remains committed to party politics, the functions and duties of the President will equally be upheld at all times.”

    Shehu’s clarification didn’t dispel the alleged rejection of the Tinubu-Shettima ticket by Buhari, with the PDP urging him “not to waste your time on Tinubu.”

    And as weeks rolled into months with no Buhari on the campaign trail, Tinubu reportedly met the president, to plead with him to join the Tinubu-Shettima state rallies.

    The parley yielded results, and the APC PCC, on January 5, revised its timetable, to indicate that Buhari would rally for the Tinubu-Shettima ticket in 10 states.

    The PDP’s quick to mock Tinubu, saying, “dragging Buhari into campaigns can’t help you,” adding, “the APC candidate has a stained image,” and “will smear Buhari with his putrid stains.”

    When Buhari resumed campaigns for the Tinubu-Shettima ticket on January 9 in Adamawa, PDP’s PCC spokesman Kola Ologbondiyan alleged the next day that he didn’t canvass votes for Tinubu, but “merely raised his hand.”

    Ologbondiyan’s words: “The public watched as a visibly embarrassed Asiwaju Tinubu had to put up with President Buhari merely raising his hand without speaking on his (Tinubu’s) personality despite the pressure being mounted on him (Buhari).

    “It is clear that President Buhari attended the APC rally… only to satisfy partisan exigencies and not to campaign for Asiwaju Tinubu, who is badgered by allegations for which most well-meaning Nigerians have distanced themselves from his presidential bid.”

    Buhari didn’t overly campaign for Tinubu, but he’d said, “I want to present to you the Presidential candidate, Bola Ahmed Tinubu,” and raised Tinubu’s hand, adding, “and the Governorship candidate, Binani” (Sen. Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed) and also raised her hand.

    Then Buhari said, “I will now present the party flags to both of them,” and he did so. There’s applause as Buhari presented Tinubu and Binani, and handed the APC flags to them, respectively.

    Buhari urged the members to “vote for the APC and all our candidates,” and declared that, “APC is again going to be number one. There hasn’t been a lady Governor since we started this system. We are going to present one and she is going to win (and become the first lady Governor in Nigeria).”

    So, without yielding to the PDP argument about Buhari not voicing support for Tinubu at the Yola, Adamawa rally, the party’s gloating would be apt had Buhari failed to present and hand Tinubu the APC flag, symbolising his choice and acceptance as the candidate for February’s poll.

    But what about Buhari’s vocal support for Tinubu in Damaturu, Yobe State, on January 10, as he presented him (and Governor Mai Mala Buni for re-election)?

    “I am here to present to you the Presidential candidate of our great party, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the Governorship candidate in Yobe, Mai Mala Buni,” Buhari said.

    “I accompany Asiwaju here to tell you to vote for him so that he can continue with my legacy of rebuilding Nigeria,” Buhari added, and raised Tinubu and Buni’s hands and handed them the APC flags.

    It appears that the PDP hasn’t made any remarks about the Yobe rally, but the party’s issues with Tinubu’s presidential run persist, and they include that:

    Tinubu isn’t qualified for President due to his alleged baggage from peddling narcotics and indictment by a United States court, for which Tinubu forfeited $460,000.

    A cloudy parental background; age falsification and certificate forgery; identity theft; invisible means of stupendous wealth; and ill-health that impacts his mental acuity, and may hamper his performance if elected President next month.

    Consequently, Ologbondiyan claimed on December 22 that, “Nigerians have registered their rejection of Tinubu as they have shown that they will never trust or elect a tainted individual… and established their preference for the Presidential Candidate of the PDP, Atiku Abubakar, over and above the deflated Tinubu as the next President of our great country.”

    The PDP campaign council’s allegations and attacks haven’t shown any negative impact on the Tinubu-Shettima campaign. But will they in the 40 days to the poll? The jury will be out on February 25!

    *Mr Ezomon, Journalist and Media Consultant, writes from Lagos, Nigeria.