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Tag: Electoral Act

  • The real reason Buhari vetoed electoral act amendment bill – By Magnus Onyibe

    The real reason Buhari vetoed electoral act amendment bill – By Magnus Onyibe

    In my last media Intervention during the last week of December 2021, titled: “Electoral Act Amendment Bill: Interrogating The Ogbanje/Abiku Element” which was widely published in the mass media, l tried to decipher the reasons for the killing of the electoral act amendment bill five (5) times under the watch of the incumbent government at the centre.

    l had surmised in the article that President Mohammadu Buhari, as the commander-in-chief of the armed forces of Nigeria, knew what you, fellow citizens and l do not know, hence he rejected the bill which he basically informed us contains anti-democracy elements.

    Here is how l put it:

    “That is perhaps owed to the fact that in his position as the president and commander-in-chief of the armed forces of Nigeria, he knows what we all do not know, so he has his reasons which he has tried to put across to us.”

    Fellow Nigerians , l can testify that l now know what mr president knows about the potential inequity that the clause in the rejected bill mandating political parties to produce candidates for general elections, only through direct primaries, would foist on the political class. It is information that is not in the public space.

    While, l was also perplexed as to why the outgoing governors who will be exiting the powerful governors forum are empowering a forum which they would cease to be members from May, 29, 2023, the puzzle is now solved as the pressure mounted by governors on president Buhari not to append his signature to the rejected bill was beyond the selfish interest of leaders of government at state levels. So, l am no longer confounded about the reasoning behind the governors interest in allegedly prevailing on president Buhari not to append his signature to the Electoral Act Amendment Bill 2021, which had direct primaries as the only process of producing candidates for general elections.
    And I will throw more light on that shortly.

    Before then,here is how l had wondered aloud about why governors are interested in sustaining indirect primaries, in the same earlier cited piece :
    “I am expressing that curiosity because it is basically through indirect primaries that governors can wield influence in determining who becomes the president, senator or house of representatives member”

    “As most of the current governors are in the terminal stages of their tenure, after which some of them that may not make it as the President, Vice President of Nigeria or party chairman end up as senators, it does not add up that they want to bestow so much power on the governors , a power block that they will not be part of in 2023.”

    As evidenced by the conclusion above , I suspected that there was a catch to governors supporting a cause that they do not stand to profit from directly.
    What l could not figure out at that time is that the APC governors are collectively fighting for the soul of the ruling party to prevent it, and to some extent the entire Nigerian political system from being hijacked by those who could attract and mobilize more members for the party in their respective states.

    Ideally, attracting and registering more members for the party and leveraging the number for one’s advantage should not be an anathema . That is because , it is in consonance with the democracy dictum: majority carries the vote. But just like free market can not be without some level of regulations, majority carries the votes principle of democracy can not be unmoderated. Hence the free rein which direct primaries could have engendered is being managed for the good of the ruling party at the center and hopefully for the Nigerian political class as a whole.

    It is in the light of the above that l had rationalized that the ruling party might have caused a settlement agreement to be reached between the presidency and its legislators, before president Buhari rejected the bill.

    The assertion above is underlined by the fact that the party at the center , APC controls majority of the members in both the senate and House of Representatives, hence it has been able to convert the electoral act amendment bill 2021 debate into a ‘family affair ’

    As we all know , converting an official matter to a family affair is an euphemism for a resort to the compromise of the ethos of democracy or applying ‘political solution’ as opposed to adhering to the spirit and letter of the principles of democracy. So, it was sheer foolhardiness on my path to deign to assume that the legislators would suddenly grow from boys to men and override the president’s veto as the previous NASS did with the NDDC bill that became an act after then president Olusegun Obasanjo’s veto of the bill was discountenanced or set aside by NASS during his reign.

    In the instant case, as the executive arm has captured the legislative and judiciary arms of government through a series of radical actions against former CJN , Walter Onoghen and ex senate president, Bukola Saraki, who were considered a torn on the flesh of the executive arm, and were literarily neutralized by being booted out.

    These actions which some have averred as being unwholesome and inimical practices that portend danger for democracy took place mostly in the course of the first term of president Buhari’s presidency. Those behind-the-scenes maneuvers no doubt stymied the counter balancing powers of the two other arms of government which is considered an anathema in a true democracy. But coming together as a force of common good to disallow direct primaries as the only option for producing candidates that is deemed as a common threat to both the executive and legislative arms of government, is a positive development.

    It is not surprising that the collective effort of both the executive and legislative arms of government to kill the resort to direct primaries is being welcome by a broad spectrum of Nigerians including the clergy man , Hassan Kukah and some civil society organizations that had initially kicked against it.

    With hindsight benefit , l have realized that all the time that senators from the opposition party, PDP were shouting themselves hoarse that the 73 votes (signatures) required to override the president’s veto had been secured, Aso Rock Villa must have been laughing in vernacular-apologies to ex president Olusegun Obasanjo who is a veteran of such derisive laughters.

    That is simply because following the discovery of the negative value intrinsic in the resort to the application of only direct primaries in producing candidates , the ruling party at the centre , APC converting the matter into a family affair , took it out of the influence of the main opposition party , PDP.

    In any case , other legislators from the parties must have by now been apprised of the truth about the Electoral Act Amendment bill, 2021 and some of it’s toxic contents.

    So, as the popular saying goes , by killing the Electoral act amendment bill, 2021, the APC might have killed a rat without spilling its blood, metaphorically.

    Thus, the critical electoral act amendment bill, 2021 that has the capacity to give the growth of democracy in our clime a quantum leap, and which could have been another opportunity to deepen democracy in our country, which was on the cusp of an evolution through direct primaries, has been sacrificed on the alter of narrow interests premised on the belief that Nigeria is not ripe for such practice. That is one way of looking at the presidential veto.
    As pragmatic as that assessment may be , there is another school of thought which is of the belief that at such a critical juncture on the life our country, our leaders should be patriotic by taking a wholistic and altruistic approach to nation building. But the highly partisan NASS, dominated by the APC, which is monolithic, is working assiduously to stamp it down.

    It is an attribute that mimics the Republican Party in the USA that is increasingly looking like a cult group and a torn in the flesh of the ruling Democratic Party, by constituting itself into a sentinel of sorts, that is determined to thwart the lofty plans of US president, Joe Biden , such as his build back better infrastructure bill . Given the nature of politics and what we can observe and learn from the USA from where Nigeria borrowed the presidential system of governance, we need no enlightenment by any soothe sayer, before understanding that the electoral act amendment bill 2021 would likely continuously be an Ogbanje/Abiku, (be born and get killed )as long as it is in any shape or form that is in conflict with the narrow interests of the ruling party, APC or is considered to have the capacity to imperil the political system in any shape or form.

    In the course of digging deep into why the electoral act amendment bill , 2021 was not accented to by president Buhari , l have also come into the knowledge that the reason the executive and legislative arms of government seem to be working together without friction under the watch of president Buhari is that the leadership under senate president, Ahmed Lawan and House of Representatives speaker, Femi Gbajabiamila have entered into a sort of pact with the executive arm of government to work together without antagonizing each other as was the case with the the 8th assembly that was at daggers drawn with executive arm.

    What that means is that there is a deliberate effort by both arms to function more cooperatively by having standing committees with members from both the executive and legislative arms of government along with the primary agency that would implement the policy-end user also being a member of the cohort.
    For instance, in the case of the electoral act amendment bill , INEC which is the end user or implementing agency is part of the standing committee.

    I understand that it is one of methods that NASS and the presidency adopted with the aim of being on the same page when policies or bills are being prepared from infancy to maturity. A similar strategy was applied to resolve the Petroleum Industry Bill, PIB, now Petroleum Industry Act, PIA that had been on the drawing board since the return of multi party democracy since 1999.

    That strategy, if l may refer to it as such , is supposed to be a proof that the NASS is not a mere rubber stamp as the legislators have been coming across to most observers, since they appear to be looking like yes men and women by not being seen to be scrutinizing proposals floated by the presidency via critical debates on them, as they should.

    By the same token, the judiciary seem to be in acquiescence or hand in gloves with the presidency as it is not known to have barked, how much more bite the executive arm of government.

    As a democracy advocate , it appears to me that such arrangements are tending towards being dereliction of duty on the part of all the arms of government.
    Put succinctly , the three arms of government appear to be reducing their constitutional role that made it obligatory for each of them to be counterbalancing each other, to a mere perfunctory activity.

    As such, instead of strengthening democracy by strictly observing the tenets, the special arrangements may be watering down the benefits of separation of power that is the bulwark of democracy.

    Wherever the case may be, it is debatable whether such arrangements that whittle down the principle of separation of powers which is a canon of democracy are beneficial to us as a nation or only serving the selfish political interests of the present political leadership of our country. Whatever the case may be , it is another kettle of fish for interrogation on another date.

    Nevertheless , any country operating a democratic system is at liberty to tweak with the original system to suit her peculiar needs, depending on the national interest,local dynamics and circumstances in the clime .

    However, we must all be wary and vigilant of the potential corrosive effects of such practices or innovations on the fundamentals of democracy.

    And the intervention via this essay is to awaken the senses of fellow democracy advocates to the danger that such compromise arrangements portend for our nascent democracy.

    Before proceeding further , it is apropos at this juncture that l point out that contrary to the statement credited to the newly minted PDP chairman, senator, Iyochia Ayu that the ruling party at the center APC plans to rig the 2023 presidential election, hence president Buhari failed to advance the Electoral Act Amendment bill 2021 into law. l would like to announce that it is much deeper than that.

    In fact it is for APC’s own internal reason that the restriction of the process of choosing contestants for political offices by political parties strictly via direct primaries, instead of the freedom to choose from the three options of direct , indirect and consensus is rejected by president Buhari.

    Unlike when my analysis was based on conventional wisdom , hence l was astounded by the befuddling conclusions from my trend analysis that are in tandem with most of the excuses advertised as the reasons that weighed down president Buhari’s hand, hence he was unable to sign the bill into law; l am now in a better position to share with readers the real and weighty debilities (if l may refer to them as such)that compelled mr president not to assent to the bill that was transmitted to him on the 19th of November , 2021.

    At this juncture, allow me put some meat on the bone:

    It may be recalled that the ruling APC under the chairmanship of former governor of Edo state , Adams Oshiomole, the party embarked on membership drive.
    It was an initiative hailed by most pundits.

    But the motive for the initiative was not really altruistic. Rather it is self serving to particular interest groups.

    With the introduction of technology into the election process, ballot box snatching and stuffing as well as writing of election results even before they were held, using alternative result sheets which was once the vogue, have become obsolete.

    But since human beings must keep trying to find ways to circumvent the rules by bending without breaking them , no matter how iron clad the rules are , new strategies that are more sophisticated are usually devised to breach the system.

    And it so happened that the tactics of leveraging larger membership base to gain advantage in producing candidates using direct primaries , deemed in some quarters as a sophisticated way of rigging at internal party level , almost slipped through the system to become law. It was executed through some clever maneuvering in the House of Representatives, until it was killed after it had landed on the desk of president Buhari in Aso rock villa.

    If president Buhari had assented to the electoral act amendment bill , 2021 with the clause prohibiting other options except direct primaries as the only process of producing candidates, the ruling party at the center APC would have been in for a shocker as the leader of the party , president Buhari might not have had a say in who becomes the next president after him .

    That is simply because, for instance , at the end of the membership registration exercise, Lagos state had registered 4.5 million members , Kano state recorded 4.2 million members while Delta state garnered a paltry 350,000 members and so on and so forth.

    For the purpose of this analysis, l would confine my self to sharing with readers, the APC membership registration figures for the three states listed above.

    Take note that in a direct primaries option , the registered members of the party are the delegates. That is contrary to the process of indirect primaries whereby only party executives, elected representatives and government appointees from wards to local government and state levels are the delegates. Naturally , where there is no higher elected or appointed person in the state , the governor is the leader. But where there is a higher authority that person is the leader of the state, and he or she controls the delegates.

    When the conduct of indirect primaries is applied , the number of delegates from all the states are near parity.

    On the contrary , where direct primaries is adopted , the more members a state can mobilize on its membership list , the higher the number of delegates that it would present at a national convention to elect a presidential candidate in party primaries. Consider a hypothetical scenario whereby the leader of APC in Lagos state decides to run for the presidency and chooses the leader of APC in Kano state , who is the current governor as his running mate. Between both of them, they can muster about 8.5 million votes.

    If that happens , winning the primaries would be a fait accompli for the candidates from the states with the two highest number of registered voters-lagos and Kano if they decide to team up . Thus the next presidential candidate of the APC could emerge without the input of the president who is supposed to be the leader of the party.

    In effect , president Buhari would be undermined or undercut as he would have no say on who succeeds him as president of the federal republic of Nigeria of direct primaries were to be adopted as enshrined in the Electoral Act Amendment Bill, 2021 that president Buhari vetoed in 21/12/2021.

    That is simply because even the whole of the states in the rest of the south south, and south east may not be able to generate the votes that could match the number of votes coming from just the two states of Lagos and Kano.

    In the event that such happens, assuming the option of direct primaries was adopted as it was captured in the rejected bill, president Buhari would not be able to realize his plan of determining who would be the next president, a person who he stated in a recent Channels television interview that he already knows , and prefers to hold back the identity because he does not want the person eliminated.

    According to president Buhari in the earlier referenced tv interview “I will not tell you, (who the next president would be) because he may be eliminated if I mention his name.”

    Even as l do not intend to go into further details at this point, it is manifestly clear from the comment above that president Buhari already has in mind who would be the APC presidential candidate of the APC in 2023.

    It may be recalled that , former Military president, lbrahim Badamasi Babangida, lBB had also shared on Arise tv, his definition of who should be the next president. However, lBB’s view is not as weighty as that of the incumbent president, Buhari who is the current holder of the lever of political power.

    So dear readers, the real reason that the electoral act amendment bill , 2021 has been guillotined is that direct primaries would make president Buhari loose control of the party such that he would not be able to have any influence or control over who succeeds him as president in 2023, since rogue elements in his party would have literarily pulled the carpet from under his feet.

    That in my view is not a space that any leader would like to be. Every other reasons being advanced ranging from the notion that direct primaries contravenes the ethos of democracy which is about freedom of having multiple choices; direct primaries is too expensive to fund in light of the dwindling financial resources available in government (despite CBN resort to printing money) and ministry of finance increasing VAT rate and introducing new taxes (sugar tax)as well as the proposed increase in fuel pump price , guaranteed to over burden the already very weary citizens.

    By the way , the aforementioned pernicious taxes are being imposed to support big government as opposed to doing the ideal thing which is reducing the cost of governance by streamlining Ministries, Departments and Agencies , MDAs that is throwing up humongous over head costs hence very little is left to fund capital projects which are basically infrastructure such as roads , rail and electricity which are basically employment generating activities which president Buhari appear to be very determined to score high points before his exit from Aso Rock villa in 2023 .

    The other reason touted to justify president Buhari ‘s decision not to sign off on the bill, as presented by NASS , is that it is too dangerous to risk the lives of voters as they may be exposed to the danger of being attacked by bandits -recently designated as terrorists.

    On that last point, l would like to point out that it may be hypocritical since the same voters being considered as too endangered to queue up to vote during party primaries would be expected to queue up to vote in general elections as they have done in 2015 and 2019.

    The truth is that the foregoing excuses are merely what is usually referred to in the world of business as ‘corporate speak’.

    It does not necessarily mean it is the true position of things .

    That is to say that the above advertised reasons for rejecting the bill as contained in president Buhari’s memo of 21 December, 2021 to the National Assembly, NASS can be classified as official APC party position aimed at hoodwinking the undiscerning .

    If the ‘political coup’ of making the process of political parties producing contestants exclusively via direct primaries had materialized, it would have been akin to what happened to former president olusegun Obasanjo, OBJ who lost control of the party and political system after governor’s checkmated him, some say for not keeping to the bargain that he made with them for both president and governors to get a third term in office. It may be recalled that the governors worked with lawmakers from their respective states to pull the plug on then president’s proposed third term agenda exclusively for the office of president which then senate president Ken Nnamani executed perfectly by ensuring that the bill failed to sail through, and which was to the shock and chagrin of president Obasanjo who did not see it coming as he thought he had the deal sealed without being cognizant of the fact that politics about interests which are never permanent.

    Just like the current attempted ‘political coup’ against Buhari barely 17 months to the end of his tenure , the OBJ debacle also occurred at about same lame duck period.

    Another point which needs to be made is that if president Buhari and the APC are so keen on complying with democratic ethos, hence they are insisting that the electoral act amendment bill , 2021 must reflect the freedom of choice by giving political parties the three options of direct , indirect and consensus ; how come the conduct of a referendum which is a critical component of democracy being agitated for by Indigenous People of Biafra, IPOB is not accepted? For the sake of equity and justice , the application or observance of democracy tenets should not be selective . So, as mr president is currently insisting that the three options of direct , indirect and consensus options must be applied in political party primaries for the sake of upholding the tenets of democracy , is it not curious that rather than accepting that a referendum which is a fundamental component of democracy should be conducted , lPOB was proscribed and thousands of lgbo youths involved in the struggle have been sent to their early graves by government security forces and their leader , Nnamdi Kanu is languishing in jail?

    Ditto for Sunday lgboho, another crusader for the creation of Oduduwa nation exclusively for the Yoruba ethnic nationality?

    For the umpteenth time , let me restate that l don’t subscribe to the splitting up of our beloved country which is the mission of Nnamdi Kanu and Sunday Igboho. And l can even go further to wager a bet that if a referendum on Biafra or Oduduwa nations were to be allowed to be conducted , voters on the side of Nigeria remaining one indivisible country, would prevail.

    That is simply because the lgbos , Yorubas and the Hausa/Fulani that need to have a huge market to sell their cattle are aware that it is in their best interest to remain in one Nigeria.

    But in the case of the lgbos which is peculiar , they need to be given a sense of belonging by offering them the chance to take a shot at the presidency as was the case in 1999 when both Olusegun Obasanjo of PDP and Olu Falae of APP both of whom are of Yoruba origin were allowed,with the exclusion of other nationalities to contest for the presidency. It is needless restating the fact that the gesture assuaged the pain of Yoruba nation arising from the annulment of the June 12 , 1993 presidential election acclaimed to have been won by the amiable and popular philanthropist and business mogul turned politician, MKO Abiola who also lost his life in the ensuing struggle to claim his mandate.

    And with respect to the Yoruba quest for Oduduwa nation, as l understand it, lgboho is fighting inequality in the polity bordering on hegemony by a particular ethnic group over other members of the Nigerian union and he is also aiming to secure Yoruba forests from being taken over by bandits, violent herdsmen and other criminal elements that have taken over similar forests in the northern parts of our country.

    On the issue of finding suitable presidential candidates, and in a situation where there is an apparent dearth of ideal ‘presidential
    material’ of lgbo extraction, based on some universal minimum requirements, l had proposed for the main opposition party , PDP a hybrid or a short cut pathway to the presidency for the lgbo via a unique partnership with former Vice President Abubakar Atiku , Turaki Adamawa, who has the political clout and financial muscle, (a successful businessman/politician that has vied for the presidency up to four times and in nearly three decades) therefore has the momentum to build upon to breast the tape ahead of his competitors in the presidential race in 2023.

    Unfortunately, that formula -Atiku presidency with lgbo Vice President-is currently facing headwinds as PDP governors are said to be in quandary as to weather or not to adjust their position in the light of the prevailing political dynamics in the country which compels the return of presidential power from the north to the south . The good news is that politicians on both northern and southern divides appear to be poised to return power to the south , and president Buhari’s body language tends to suggest that he would like to hand over to someone from the south east.

    In my assessment, that person is unlikely to be a professional politician or a core lgbo person.

    That is all l can say for now as other details would unfold during the much delayed APC convention, if it is held next month or in weeks and months ahead.

    Meanwhile, Nigerians are holding their breathe as politics takes the center stage, and governance recedes beginning from now to May 29, 2023.

  • The year 2022: A peep into the political crystal ball – By Dakuku Peterside

    The year 2022: A peep into the political crystal ball – By Dakuku Peterside

    By Dakuku Peterside

    The year 2021 is gone. Political intrigues and manoeuvres were commonplace and soometimes deliberately stifling and exuberating. Political gladiators often played hide and seek games with critical political issues and gave undue attention to political inanities. Some of the key highlights of 2021 were the interests displayed towards the amendment of the Electoral Act, the emergence of the PDP novel National Executive, and the success of the Anambra governorship election that produced Prof Chukwuma Soludo as the governor-elect with high drama and national attention, to name but a few. These were only a dress rehearsal of what was coming. 2022 is here, and all pointers are that this year will define the choices before Nigerians in 2023. This is the year that will determine the outcome of 2023. This column will explore the critical issues in 2022 that will shape the political and economic landscape and define the trajectory of Nigeria in the short to medium term. The issues include the outcome of the Electoral Act amendment, the National Convention of APC, Ekiti/Osun governorship elections, National convention/Primaries of the two major political parties that will produce the flag bearers for 2023 elections, and the commencement of the presidential campaign.

    The Electoral Act amendment bill, which is expected to provide the legal framework for conduct of elections, is one of the intricate stitches to make the electoral system rig-proof, violence-free and protected against excessive monetization. Unfortunately, it has become as controversial as the loopholes and deficiencies it seeks to address. The fate of the bill and its outcome is a matter of conjecture, but there is no doubt it will define the nature and confidence of the people in the 2023 general election. President Buhari rejected the bill that espoused direct primaries and electronic transmission of results. The ball is in the court of the national assembly to overturn the President’s veto and promulgate the law. This looks unlikely as this national assembly seems not to have the temerity to push through this law. It is evident the clause requiring parties to mandatorily chose their candidates by direct primaries will be expunged. This is what President Buhari has said he wants to see before he signs. From what has transpired, the provision for electronic transmission of results will be one of the new features of the Electoral Act whenever the President assents to the bill. This will be a confidence booster and a source of optimism.

    The long-anticipated elective Convention of the ruling party is significant, not just for the party’s future but for democracy in Nigeria. The Convention has been shifted endlessly, giving room for speculations. There is the fear that the Convention will spotlight the deep internal divisions, entrenched powerplay, and contradictions in the party and set a significant crack. Another school of thought believe in the words of President George Washington that a “tiny clique of cunning, ambitious, and unprincipled men may have sized the party and subverted the will of the people”.

    Whatever it is, there is an enormous responsibility on the shoulders of Mr President as the leader of the party. Not holding a convention to elect officers has both intended and unintended consequences that will not serve the party’s interest. APC’s error of judgement will be PDP’s gain. The President admitted this much in his media interview. The Progressive Governors, elected on the party’s platform, stand on the threshold of history as they have one more chance to rescue the party from the fatal error of poor judgment.

    Concerning the Presidency, the incumbent will not be running in the primaries or general elections, which will heighten the intrigues and horse-trading. Ethnicity, geopolitics, money, religion will all be in the cocktail that will determine the outcome of the primaries. Restraint may be thrown to the winds in the ruling party as the gladiators do not want to lose out. The opposition PDP will be the bastion of high wire horse-trading with the Governors playing an influential role, in the absence of a centre of ‘gravity’.

    The Governorship primaries of the two major political parties in the various states will be the natural battleground for presidential candidates, godfathers and power brokers. There is little reason to believe the primaries will be transparent, and that will be the foundation of internal rancour and crisis in the two major political parties. Fringe parties stand to benefit from poorly managed internal processes of the major political parties.

    The elaborate shadow boxing within and between the All-Progressive Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) will manifest. Each of the two political parties have enough ingredients for self destruction or survival and triumph. In the PDP, the issue of who emerges as the party’s presidential candidate will be highly contentious and may lead to the the implosion of the party. A PDP Governor recently posited, “The process of the emergence of our party’s (PDP) presidential flag bearer is going to cause a problem. But we will overcome it eventually and move ahead to defeat the APC whose process will lead to the breakdown of the party.”

    In the case of the PDP, it is a party riddled with irreconcilable contradictions within it. There may be a significant revolt of the South- East and South-South strongholds if party gives its ticket to someone from the North. On the other hand, how APC manages the emergence of and geopolitics of its presidential candidate may be its albatross. However, if, as expected, the party decides to turn to the southern part of the country for its presidential flag-bearer, then for all practical purposes, who from the South gets it becomes an issue. The competition will be among gladiators who have one justification or another to claim the ticket. All three geopolitical zones in the south have what seems to them to be justifiable reasons to be allowed to fly the party flag. These competing well-entrenched views will pose a conundrum for APC to deal with before a presidential candidate emerges.

    The 2023 election campaigns that will commence in 2022 will allow politicians to address the issues that matter to the electorate. Although campaigns are not usually about issues but personalities, yet voters will relate with issues of economy and insecurity, the same problems that defined the 2015 and 2019 presidential campaigns. It will not be out of place to predict that the political class has learnt little or no lessons. The 2022/2023 campaigns will pit the two major political parties about change. The critical issue is the definition of change, which depends on where one stands.

    By the last quarter of this year, the campaign of the parties will be about three issues, none of which is mutually exclusive: performance of Buhari presidency, economy, and security. Money or “stomach infrastructure” will become the defining factor during the campaign, and each party will want to outdo and outspend the other to win over the electorate. There is a need for politicians not to heat up the polity during their campaigns. Already, Nigerians are victims of unabating insecurity and any additional violence and insecurity resulting from the campaign may get people to the tipping point.

    I expect that APC and PDP will continue to dominate the political space, and the influence of new parties will be minimal at best. The third force of pro-democracy activists, some neophyte political gladiators and some End SARS revolution strategists has emerged. But they have a mountain to climb because they are to compete with the two big parties with experience, money, and a determination to grab and or keep power at all costs. The strength of this third force may be its newness; paradoxically, it is its weakness as well. It appears too late in the day to put up an organizational structure that can wrestle power from these tested political war horses. Historically, the youth, who constitute the major voting demographics have never voted for themselves nor those who may cater to their interests. Often, they abandon reason and behold to godfathers propelled by the power of stomach infrastructure, a lexicon peculiar to Nigerian brand of politics.

    This year will witness two crucial gubernatorial elections – the Osun and Ekiti governorship elections. These will provide an essential indicator for where INEC and the hope of free and fair elections are headed. The outcome will significantly define the prospects for free and fair elections. Whether Nigerians will be optimistic or pessimistic about the 2023 elections will reasonably depend on how these two crucial elections play out. Although they are off season elections with peculiarities different from general elections, it is our contention that they will set the tone for the 2023 general elections. It will test the preparedness of INEC to conduct elections and provide useful lessons for the general elections.

    One disturbing recurrent feature of Nigerian succession politics will replay. It is the neglect of governance in a transition election year. But the consequences in 2022 will be more severe. Neglect of governance in a time of severe economic hardship can yield serious unintended consequences in the form of social unrest and serial protests.

    Nigeria politics is a minefield of complex highhandedness and political dribbling. But in the next few months, things will become more apparent than they are now. Nigeria is in the throes of an economic quagmire, intractable insecurity from terrorism, separatism and banditry, and the ravaging impacts of COVID 19. These asymmetrical issues speak to our current socio-economic realities that put us at the precipice of dysfunctionality and a rude walk to perdition. How we handle these five critical issues raised in this column will make or mar our political experience.

    We are already in a combustible political, social, and economic situation requiring careful navigation of issues to avoid trampling on frayed political nerves and triggering explosives on our national fault lines. By the last quarter of this year, governments in Abuja and various state capitals will stop functioning and shift their focus to politics and survival of political actors and power wielders. Although I do not have a crystal ball, a cursory look into my symbolical crystals for 2022 shows that we will navigate through it safely, although it may be a tough year. All these notwithstanding, permit me to wish my readers a happy new year and the best of 2022.

  • Senate President, Lawan reels out agenda for 2022

    Senate President, Lawan reels out agenda for 2022

    President of the Nigerian Senate, Senator Ahmad Lawan has said the electoral act amendment bill and review of the 1999 constitution will be topmost on the agenda of the National Assembly (NASS) in 2022.

    TheNewsGuru.com (TNG) reports Senator Lawan made this known on Friday in his New Year message to Nigerians, saying as soon as the NASS reconvened for legislative business in the new year, the Senate will spring into action.

    Lawan stated that it was the same spirit of patriotism that the NASS handled the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) to breaking the jinx, it is dealing with the electoral act amendment bill.

    He stressed that following the decision of President Muhammadu Buhari to withhold assent to the bill, the NASS will make further consultations on the issues he raised upon resumption of plenary in January.

    Lawan’s New Year message reads: “I congratulate fellow Nigerians everywhere as we cross over from 2021 into a happy and prosperous 2022.

    “I join you in thanking the Almighty God for His mercy that made the crossover possible for us as individuals and as a nation.

    “The Year 2021 was challenging for people all over the world. It is praiseworthy that beyond the challenges, we can see the rays of a bright future from the new year.

    “As your elected representatives, our new year pledge is to continue to pursue our common desire of a just, peaceful and prosperous country. We promise to continue to discharge this responsibility without fear or malice, confident that by working in harmony, Nigerians will build the great country that is their abiding dream and manifest destiny.

    “Without a doubt, insecurity is today one of our biggest challenges. However, I can attest that the government is resolutely addressing these challenges.

    “As a critical contribution to that effort, the National Assembly has appropriated more funds in the 2022 budget to enhance the operational capabilities of our security agencies.

    “My message to fellow Nigerians is that we should not lose faith in our country and its democratic institutions. The current challenges will be overcome and become mere footnotes in our glorious national history.

    “The ninth National Assembly is focused and will never be distracted from the implementation of its Legislative Agenda as we had spelt out following our inauguration in 2019.

    “Within the context of that Agenda, we have passed many critical bills and have many more to roll out in the new year.

    “At the beginning of 2021, we made specific promises to the Nigerian people with respect to our legislative focus. We are proud that we have kept those promises.

    “For instance, breaking the jinx of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB), which had defied passage for about two decades, was high on our agenda in 2021. With the cooperation of the Executive and the support of the key stakeholders, we were able to break the jinx. We passed the bill and got it signed into law in 2021.

    “This piece of legislation will significantly impact the Nigerian economy and propel a significant turn around in our oil and gas sector.

    “It was with the same spirit of patriotism that we handled the Electoral Act amendment bill. We believe that sustainable democratic governance requires a transparent and credible electoral process.

    “Following the decision of President Muhammadu Buhari to withhold assent to the bill, we shall make further consultations on the issues he stated for that decision, on our resumption of plenary in January.

    “We shall find a way forward on this critical legislation in the new year. We are determined to deliver an Electoral Act that stands the test of time in safeguarding democracy and the electoral process in Nigeria.

    “We are also looking forward to receiving the report of our Committee on the Review of the 1999 Constitution upon our resumption from recess. We believe that the outcome of this very important exercise will promote unity, stability and peaceful coexistence in our country.

    “The Electoral Act amendment bill and review of the 1999 constitution will be topmost on our agenda as we reconvene for Legislative business in the new year.

    “Upon our inauguration in 2019, the ninth National Assembly had promised to reset the national budget calendar to January to December cycle, to make our fiscal system predictable and consistent with international best practice.

    “We have since 2019 passed the national yearly budget every December to enable the President sign it into law before the new year. In consistent with this, on Friday 31st December, 2021, we witnessed the signing into law by the President, the 2022 Appropriation Bill.

    “Timely passage of the budget enhances the performance of the economy and has specifically aided our recent quick recovery from recession. We are determined to sustain this trajectory to act as an impetus to our economic planning and projection.

    “The much that we have been able to accomplish this far can be attributed to the commitment and dedication of my fellow Distinguished colleagues and Honourable members and the prevailing atmosphere of cordiality between the National Assembly and the Executive. We intend to sustain and even improve on this in the new year and beyond.

    “I appeal for continued understanding and support of all Nigerians for the government at all levels. As your legislators at the federal level, we will continue in the true spirit of our mantra to “work for Nigeria.”

    “Once again, I wish us all a happy, prosperous and peaceful 2022”.

  • We will pass electoral act amendment bill – Gbajabiamila

    We will pass electoral act amendment bill – Gbajabiamila

    Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mr. Femi Gbajabiamila has vowed that the National Assembly will pass the Electoral Act Amendment Bill.

    TheNewsGuru.com (TNG) reports Gbajabiamila made the vow while commissioning some projects in Surulere, Lagos State.

    He noted that President Muhammadu Buhari must have declined assent to the bill out of good intentions and based on advice that he got.

    The Speaker stressed that the National Assembly will look at the reasons why the President declined assent and consider removing the clause and pass the bill.

    Gbajabiamila, however, re-emphasized that the direct primary clause was inserted into the electoral act amendment bill to ensure that people participate in elections.

    He assured Nigerians that the National Assembly will revisit the electoral act amended bill, and ensure that an amended electoral law is in place for future polls.

    “If you followed the history of the amendment of the direct and indirect primary bill, I initiated that amendment bill for a good reason and it is for people to participate in elections. These are the people you see around when you campaign every four years come rain, come shine.

    “For me, it does not make sense that these people do not have a voice in who represents them. It is part of being used and I didn’t like that.

    “Most of us are reformers and one of the ways to reform the system is to make it more accountable and to make the people have a voice in who represents them as opposed to a few people sitting in the four corners of a wall and writing results. That is what the amendment was all about. Again, there is a process.

    “The president has, in his wisdom, rejected it and I believe he did it with good intentions based on the advice that he got. He weighed everything. Again, maybe times are different. He has people who advised him and I guess they advised him against the amendment bill.

    “There is a process. When we come back, as I said, the House will look at those amendments. We will sit as the National Assembly, look at the reasons and at that point, consider removing that clause and pass the bill so that we do not do away with the baby and the bath water.

    “But then, it is not my decision to make. It is the decision of the National Assembly, if they determine that the reasons are not good enough, then, there is a process prescribed by the constitution,” Gbajabiamila said.

  • Electoral Act Amendment Bill: Lawan opens up on what Senate will do next

    Electoral Act Amendment Bill: Lawan opens up on what Senate will do next

    President of the Nigerian Senate, Senator Ahmad Lawan has opened up on what the Senate will do next after President Muhammadu Buhari refused to give assent to the electoral act amendment bill.

    TheNewsGuru.com (TNG) reports Senator Lawan as saying the Senate will consult with the House of Representatives on how to respond to President Buhari’s letter on the Electoral Act (Amendment) Bill.

    Lawan made this known after the upper chamber rose from a closed session to deliberate on the President’s decision to withhold assent to the electoral bill passed by the National Assembly.

    According to the Senate President, the provisions of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) does not permit the upper chamber to exclusively take any action on such matters in the absence of the House of Representatives, since the latter has embarked on recess.

    He, however, assured that a joint position would be reached with the House after due consultation with Nigerians to determine the appropriate line of action when both chambers reconvene from the Christmas break in January.

    Speaking on what transpired in the closed session, Lawan said: “Senate in a closed session deliberated on matters relevant to the workings of the Senate in particular and the National Assembly in general.

    “The Senate also in the closed session discussed how to respond to the letter from Mr. President on the electoral bill amendment.

    “The Senate consequently resolved to consult with the House of Representatives in January when both the Senate and House will be in session.

    “Presently, the House of Reps has gone or recess and like we all know, the constitutional provision is for the Senate and House of Representatives to jointly take the appropriate action.

    “The Senate also resolved to consult with our constituents during our recess in January.

    “The Senate believes that our constituents have a role to play as the major stakeholders in the laws that we make in the National Assembly.”

    Buhari in the letter dated Dec 13, had explained that his decision to withhold assent to the electoral bill was informed by advice from relevant Ministries, Departments and Agencies of Government after a thorough review.

    According to Buhari, signing the bill into law would have serious adverse legal, financial, economic and security consequences on the country, particularly in view of Nigeria’s peculiarities.

    He had added that it would also impact negatively on the rights of citizens to participate in the government as constitutionally ensured.

  • Electoral Act Amendment: We’re not aware Buhari declined assent – Reps

    Electoral Act Amendment: We’re not aware Buhari declined assent – Reps

    Chairman, House Committee on Appropriations, Muktar Betara on Thursday said that the House of Representatives is not aware whether President Muhammadu Buhari declined signing the Electoral Act Amendment.

    Batera made the observation in a chat with newsmen on Thursday shortly after chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Mahmud Yakub appeared before the House committee on Appropriations.

    Asked what transpired at their close door meeting with the INEC chairman, the lawmaker said the INEC Chairman told them that for direct primaries and its funding, only the political parties have such responsibility.

    “In our discussions with the INEC Chairman, we wanted to know his requirements for the 2023 elections as well as cost of direct or indirect Primaries.

    “On the primaries, when we discussed with him, he specifically told us the role of INEC in direct or indirect primaries which he said is just minimal. He said the responsibility lies with all the political parties. He said party primaries is the role of political parties and not INEC.
    For direct primaries, what the INEC Chairman told us is that only the political parties have the responsibility on primaries and the funding of the primaries”.

    “We don’t know whether he rejected the bill or rejected the bill”, he said.
    Chairman INEC, Prof. Mahmoud Yakubu while speaking with newsmen earlier said INEC did not come up with any cost for the conduct of primaries per political parties by direct method.

    According to Prof Yakubu, we have had very good discussions with the committee on Appropriation of the National Assembly pursuant to the resolution of the House and what we discussed you will not hear from me. May be, the chairman of the committee will tell you.

    On the cost of 2023 elections, the electoral umpire said: “Once the budget is finalized you will hear.

    Responding further on whether President Muhammadu Buhari has declined assent on the electoral act amendment, he said: Really? I am hearing it for the first time.

    The meeting with the electoral umpire were to know requirements for the 2023 elections as well as cost of direct or indirect Primaries.

  • Jega, the electoral act and 2023 – Dakuku Peterside

    Jega, the electoral act and 2023 – Dakuku Peterside

    By Dakuku Peterside

    Recently Prof Attahiru Jega, former INEC chairman, shared his thoughts on the amended electoral Act that is yet to be signed into law. His views are important because he is considered an insider and has midwifed an electoral process reasonably regarded as credible by Nigerian standard. Prof Jega’s central thesis is that an electoral act that addresses the electorate’s concerns will help break the jinx of electoral fraud and sanitize the process leading up to the 2023 general election.

    Whether the current administration will produce an electoral act that fulfils this condition is yet to be seen. However, Nigerians cannot doubt the intentions of the government to improve the electoral process come 2023. This intention is evident in the attempt to produce an amended electoral act that will define the structure and procedures of elections in Nigeria. One cannot also deny that all stakeholders (INEC, National Assembly, the press, and the citizens) influence the content of the new electoral Act.

    A few months ago, when the Senate rescinded its earlier stand of not accepting electronic transmission of results, as stipulated in the amended draft electoral act after much public outcry about it, Nigerians for the first time in the recent past applauded the Senate and praised it for standing with the electorate and democracy. This action shows the electorate’s passion for this Electoral Act amendment and how Nigerians are hopeful that when accented to, this new Electoral Act will turn out to be the most significant piece of legislation on elections and democracy in recent times.

    There are two main aspects of this Electoral Act that merit consideration: The electronic transmission of results and direct primaries for political party candidates for election. I will analyse these two aspects of the Act to point out how they will impact elections in Nigeria and the implications for our nascent democracy.

    The time for digital democracy is here. Most developed countries have advanced e-governance infrastructure and have incorporated some form of e-democracy in their democratic process. Citizens communicate with their representatives, pay taxes, and engage in various aspects of civic responsibility online. Elections are not left out. In Nigeria, the Digital revolution has had a consequential impact on how we live our lives, transfer money,pay bills , watch films, but none of these is more important than how we intend it to impact our democracy.

    Most Nigerians were elated when the new amended electoral Act added electronic transmission of the results. Although a seemingly insignificant aspect of the e-democracy, the expected implication on our elections is enormous. It may not address all the rigging problems but will significantly address the issue of rigging associated with moving results from unit to ward, LGA and state levels.

    The analogue transmission of results after elections gives room for all sorts of manipulations, change of election results, intimidation of INEC officials by hoodlums, and delay in the collation and announcement of results. It is on record that some unscrupulous INEC officials sometimes collude with party officials to change voting results between the voting booth and the collation centre. If the INEC officials are not corrupt, in some cases, they are coarsed, sometimes at gunpoint, to change the results before submitting them at the collation centres. There are instances when hoodlums snatch the result sheets from the INEC officials and change the results before they get to the collation centre. Also, because of logistics encumbrances and difficulty in coming out of faraway voting booths, some voting result sheets may not get to the collation centres on time because the INEC officials were late to get to the collation centres.

    The electronic transmission of results will eliminate all these scenarios. It is safer, more transparent, and eliminates opportunities for result manipulations by-election riggers. For instance, there have been no disputes on electronic money transfer in Nigeria that gets to the supreme court, but moving electoral votes or results from one point to another ends in the Supreme Court and the position of the supreme court has always been that the electronic process is alien to the electoral act.

    The only proviso in the electronic transmission of results that I can foresee is the level of adoption and implementation by INEC. The devil is often in the details. INEC has a history of struggling with novel technology, especially at the first time. The Card Reader adoption is a good example. Although the technology was a fantastic idea when INEC added it, the implementation was so poor that it created difficulties. Former President Goodluck Jonathan struggled to cast his vote in Otueke, Bayelsa state, because the card reader malfunctioned. I sincerely hope that INEC will do everything in its power to provide the resources, both in hardware and software, that will work seamlessly. Any unnecessary and avoidable mishaps will present them for litigations and counter litigations and, by so doing, defeat the purpose of electronic transmission.

    I advocate that after adopting electronic transmission and Nigeria reaps the benefits therein, we should extend to other forms of e- elections, including e-voting, e-collation, and e-governance. Nigeria should be leading Africa in technological advancement, and I feel we could show the world and Africa that we are ready and eager to move into the 21st century by using technology to transform our democracy. I implore all to stop fearing technological adoption in elections. We must embrace it and use it as a veritable tool to improve our democracy. What benefits will Nigeria get when ‘e-election’ strengthens our democracy?

    The first is that if technology enables our votes to count, we can determine who our councillors,
    assembly members, Representatives , Senators, Governors, and President are and not by a tiny political cabal. That way, our elected officials are more likely going to be accountable to us. There is no gainsaying that votes that reflect the ‘people’s will’ will impact the quality of governance and, ultimately, the quality of life of the people. If the electoral process is credible, it will deepen democracy, but if it is not, everything will be considered a fraud, and elected persons will constantly be battling legitimacy.

    If elections results are credible and represent the people’s will, when elected leaders fail, then every voter is liable for the failure. In the next election cycle, voters will be careful to elect people that will carry their collective vision given available resources actualise them. With time, the quality of leaders and leadership will improve, and this will permeate all aspects of governance and help enthrone the rule of law and other cardinal attributes of virtues of democracy.

    To illustrate, the US does not have a central electoral body, but it relies entirely on the credibility of the electoral process to legitimise its democracy. This scenario was even more evident in the last US presidential election, where all US institutions pulled together to save their democracy when Trump attacked the electoral process because they believed that the election results and credibility were sacrosanct.

    Second is that election credibility saves a lot: resources saved from lengthy legal battles and judicial incursions into our election process, which should be anathema ;the time wasted by elected officers waiting to know the outcome of legal cases against their election before they settle for governance and leadership (in some cases, in the first six months after the election), elected leaders are in limbo waiting for the Supreme Court to determine their fate ; the lack of legitimacy by elected leaders when the citizens feel they rigged the elections that brought them to power; and the great chasm between the leaders and the people because the people do not think those elected leaders are representing them or carry their collective dreams, wishes and aspirations.

    The other aspect of the ammendment is direct primaries for party candidates for elections. Direct primaries is another laudable addition that will impact grassroots politics and deepen our democracy. Direct primaries will enable all party members to decide who the candidates should be. Party members, in principle, are more likely to
    own the candidates that emerge from this process than when a few selected people (party delegates) vote and choose the candidates to represent the party in elections. If a few Godfathers or cabals hijack the party and impose candidates – people who do not enjoy popular support or may not even share party ideology – party members will be able to object.

    There is no doubt that direct primaries will strengthen popular participation and make party membership fruitful and rewarding. People will get used to voting for candidates at the local level, and this will be in synch with the popular choice of party members who will enjoy the democratic creed of one man one vote. This action will deepen grassroots democracy with its ancillary benefit to the party and the nation.

    Again, it may reduce money politics because it is more challenging to bribe thousands of people than bribing a few delegates who select the candidates. This will limit the power of moneybags and Godfathers that have a stranglehold on our politics. Second, grassroots democracy and engagement strengthens democratic principles and entrench democratic values. These values, when properly harnessed, will create the elusive party ideology that Nigerian political parties have struggled to have.

    Furthermore, with godfatherism and money playing a minor role in our politics, good people with proper leadership skills and drive to make a difference will have the chance to participate and effect significant change that Nigeria desperately needs. Among these will be young people who are less represented in the political space because hitherto, they have not been interested or they have been side-lined by the older and more entrenched politicians who have been in corridors of power for several decades.

    Additionally, hijacking party structure by a few and foisting unpopular candidates will minimise if not completely eradicated . Besides, direct primaries will allow the largest constituency to scrutinise aspirants and enable potential candidates to know the area and build the necessary coalition. Lastly, direct primaries will also address the issue of abuse of the electoral system by party delegates who sometimes are selected based on financial reasons that undermine the process and purpose.

    However, direct primaries may have their challenges too. How can parties implement credible direct primaries free from rancour, thuggery, mob hysteria? How easy will it be for INEC to monitor and work collaboratively with parties to ensure the success of these direct primary elections? What powers and resources are provided for INEC to deliver on this additional responsibility given to it? How can parties avoid direct primaries degenerating to a mob, choosing candidates based on primordial sentiments rather than rationalism? How can INEC stop the possible falsification or writing of fictitious results?

    Just like with electronic transmission of results, direct primaries success depends on the implementation. INEC has extended responsibilities of monitoring party primaries, and government should equip it to do so. The real challenge is for parties to take up the responsibility to organise party primaries so that the process is credible.

    In conclusion, I do not doubt that when the electoral Act is accented to and appropriately implemented, the ramifications will be manifest to all. It will deepen our democracy and bring about the credibility of elections, legitimacy of leaders, accountability of elected leaders to the people and most importantly, it will bring about the much-needed dividends of democracy – the rule of law, human rights , socio- economic development and high quality of life for most citizens.

  • Jega, the Electoral Act and 2023, By Dakuku Peterside

    Jega, the Electoral Act and 2023, By Dakuku Peterside

    By Dakuku Peterside

     

    Recently Prof Attahiru Jega, former INEC chairman, shared his thoughts on the amended electoral Act that is yet to be signed into law. His views are important because he is considered an insider and has midwifed an electoral process reasonably regarded as credible by Nigerian standard. Prof Jega’s central thesis is that an electoral act that addresses the electorate’s concerns will help break the jinx of electoral fraud and sanitize the process leading up to the 2023 general election.

     

    Whether the current administration will produce an electoral act that fulfils this condition is yet to be seen. However, Nigerians cannot doubt the intentions of the government to improve the electoral process come 2023. This intention is evident in the attempt to produce an amended electoral act that will define the structure and procedures of elections in Nigeria. One cannot also deny that all stakeholders (INEC, National Assembly, the press, and the citizens) influence the content of the new electoral Act.

     

    A few months ago, when the Senate rescinded its earlier stand of not accepting electronic transmission of results, as stipulated in the amended draft electoral act after much public outcry about it, Nigerians for the first time in the recent past applauded the Senate and praised it for standing with the electorate and democracy. This action shows the electorate’s passion for this Electoral Act amendment and how Nigerians are hopeful that when accented to, this new Electoral Act will turn out to be the most significant piece of legislation on elections and democracy in recent times.

     

    There are two main aspects of this Electoral Act that merit consideration: The electronic transmission of results and direct primaries for political party candidates for election. I will analyse these two aspects of the Act to point out how they will impact elections in Nigeria and the implications for our nascent democracy.

     

    The time for digital democracy is here. Most developed countries have advanced e-governance infrastructure and have incorporated some form of e-democracy in their democratic process. Citizens communicate with their representatives, pay taxes, and engage in various aspects of civic responsibility online. Elections are not left out. In Nigeria, the Digital revolution has had a consequential impact on how we live our lives, transfer money,pay bills , watch films, but none of these is more important than how we intend it to impact our democracy.

     

    Most Nigerians were elated when the new amended electoral Act added electronic transmission of the results. Although a seemingly insignificant aspect of the e-democracy, the expected implication on our elections is enormous. It may not address all the rigging problems but will significantly address the issue of rigging associated with moving results from unit to ward, LGA and state levels.

     

    The analogue transmission of results after elections gives room for all sorts of manipulations, change of election results, intimidation of INEC officials by hoodlums, and delay in the collation and announcement of results. It is on record that some unscrupulous INEC officials sometimes collude with party officials to change voting results between the voting booth and the collation centre. If the INEC officials are not corrupt, in some cases, they are coarsed, sometimes at gunpoint, to change the results before submitting them at the collation centres. There are instances when hoodlums snatch the result sheets from the INEC officials and change the results before they get to the collation centre. Also, because of logistics encumbrances and difficulty in coming out of faraway voting booths, some voting result sheets may not get to the collation centres on time because the INEC officials were late to get to the collation centres.

     

    The electronic transmission of results will eliminate all these scenarios. It is safer, more transparent, and eliminates opportunities for result manipulations by-election riggers. For instance, there have been no disputes on electronic money transfer in Nigeria that gets to the supreme court, but moving electoral votes or results from one point to another ends in the Supreme Court and the position of the supreme court has always been that the electronic process is alien to the electoral act.

     

    The only proviso in the electronic transmission of results that I can foresee is the level of adoption and implementation by INEC. The devil is often in the details. INEC has a history of struggling with novel technology, especially at the first time. The Card Reader adoption is a good example. Although the technology was a fantastic idea when INEC added it, the implementation was so poor that it created difficulties. Former President Goodluck Jonathan struggled to cast his vote in Otueke, Bayelsa state, because the card reader malfunctioned. I sincerely hope that INEC will do everything in its power to provide the resources, both in hardware and software, that will work seamlessly. Any unnecessary and avoidable mishaps will present them for litigations and counter litigations and, by so doing, defeat the purpose of electronic transmission.

     

    I advocate that after adopting electronic transmission and Nigeria reaps the benefits therein, we should extend to other forms of e- elections, including e-voting, e-collation, and e-governance. Nigeria should be leading Africa in technological advancement, and I feel we could show the world and Africa that we are ready and eager to move into the 21st century by using technology to transform our democracy. I implore all to stop fearing technological adoption in elections. We must embrace it and use it as a veritable tool to improve our democracy. What benefits will Nigeria get when ‘e-election’ strengthens our democracy?

     

    The first is that if technology enables our votes to count, we can determine who our councillors,

    assembly members, Representatives , Senators, Governors, and President are and not by a tiny political cabal. That way, our elected officials are more likely going to be accountable to us. There is no gainsaying that votes that reflect the ‘people’s will’ will impact the quality of governance and, ultimately, the quality of life of the people. If the electoral process is credible, it will deepen democracy, but if it is not, everything will be considered a fraud, and elected persons will constantly be battling legitimacy.

     

    If elections results are credible and represent the people’s will, when elected leaders fail, then every voter is liable for the failure. In the next election cycle, voters will be careful to elect people that will carry their collective vision given available resources actualise them. With time, the quality of leaders and leadership will improve, and this will permeate all aspects of governance and help enthrone the rule of law and other cardinal attributes of virtues of democracy.

     

    To illustrate, the US does not have a central electoral body, but it relies entirely on the credibility of the electoral process to legitimise its democracy. This scenario was even more evident in the last US presidential election, where all US institutions pulled together to save their democracy when Trump attacked the electoral process because they believed that the election results and credibility were sacrosanct.

     

    Second is that election credibility saves a lot: resources saved from lengthy legal battles and judicial incursions into our election process, which should be anathema ;the time wasted by elected officers waiting to know the outcome of legal cases against their election before they settle for governance and leadership (in some cases, in the first six months after the election), elected leaders are in limbo waiting for the Supreme Court to determine their fate ; the lack of legitimacy by elected leaders when the citizens feel they rigged the elections that brought them to power; and the great chasm between the leaders and the people because the people do not think those elected leaders are representing them or carry their collective dreams, wishes and aspirations.

     

    The other aspect of the ammendment is direct primaries for party candidates for elections. Direct primaries is another laudable addition that will impact grassroots politics and deepen our democracy. Direct primaries will enable all party members to decide who the candidates should be. Party members, in principle, are more likely to own the candidates that emerge from this process than when a few selected people (party delegates) vote and choose the candidates to represent the party in elections. If a few Godfathers or cabals hijack the party and impose candidates – people who do not enjoy popular support or may not even share party ideology – party members will be able to object.

     

    There is no doubt that direct primaries will strengthen popular participation and make party membership fruitful and rewarding. People will get used to voting for candidates at the local level, and this will be in synch with the popular choice of party members who will enjoy the democratic creed of one man one vote. This action will deepen grassroots democracy with its ancillary benefit to the party and the nation.

     

    Again, it may reduce money politics because it is more challenging to bribe thousands of people than bribing a few delegates who select the candidates. This will limit the power of moneybags and Godfathers that have a stranglehold on our politics. Second, grassroots democracy and engagement strengthens democratic principles and entrench democratic values. These values, when properly harnessed, will create the elusive party ideology that Nigerian political parties have struggled to have.

     

    Furthermore, with godfatherism and money playing a minor role in our politics, good people with proper leadership skills and drive to make a difference will have the chance to participate and effect significant change that Nigeria desperately needs. Among these will be young people who are less represented in the political space because hitherto, they have not been interested or they have been side-lined by the older and more entrenched politicians who have been in corridors of power for several decades.

     

    Additionally, hijacking party structure by a few and foisting unpopular candidates will minimise if not completely eradicated . Besides, direct primaries will allow the largest constituency to scrutinise aspirants and enable potential candidates to know the area and build the necessary coalition. Lastly, direct primaries will also address the issue of abuse of the electoral system by party delegates who sometimes are selected based on financial reasons that undermine the process and purpose.

     

    However, direct primaries may have their challenges too. How can parties implement credible direct primaries free from rancour, thuggery, mob hysteria? How easy will it be for INEC to monitor and work collaboratively with parties to ensure the success of these direct primary elections? What powers and resources are provided for INEC to deliver on this additional responsibility given to it? How can parties avoid direct primaries degenerating to a mob, choosing candidates based on primordial sentiments rather than rationalism? How can INEC stop the possible falsification or writing of fictitious results?

     

    Just like with electronic transmission of results, direct primaries success depends on the implementation. INEC has extended responsibilities of monitoring party primaries, and government should equip it to do so. The real challenge is for parties to take up the responsibility to organise party primaries so that the process is credible.

     

    In conclusion, I do not doubt that when the electoral Act is accented to and appropriately implemented, the ramifications will be manifest to all. It will deepen our democracy and bring about the credibility of elections, legitimacy of leaders, accountability of elected leaders to the people and most importantly, it will bring about the much-needed dividends of democracy – the rule of law, human rights , socio- economic development and high quality of life for most citizens.

     

  • Electoral Act: How Senate reversed itself on e-voting, e-transmission of results

    Electoral Act: How Senate reversed itself on e-voting, e-transmission of results

    The Nigerian Senate on Tuesday rescinded its position on clause for electronic voting and electronic transmission of election results, which empowered Nigeria Communication Commission (NCC) to determine suitability of transmission of results, subject to approval of the National Assembly (NASS).

    TheNewsGuru.com (TNG) reports the Senate’s decision followed consideration and approval of motion moved by Senate Leader, Senator Yahaya Abdullahi on “Re-Commital of Some Clauses of the Electoral Act repeal and Re-enactment Bill 2021” at plenary on Tuesday.

    Recall that the Senate had on July 15, amended clause 52(3) of the bill to empower NCC to determine suitability of the network for transmission of results electronically with the approval of the National Assembly.

    Clause 52(,3) of the draft bill had originally prescribed that INEC shall determine voting at election and transmission of results, which may include electronic voting .

    The clause was, however, amended to empower NCC to determine suitability of the network for electronic election processes with approval of the National Assembly.

    The Senate’s decision had afterwards generated unpleasant debates among Nigerians and civil society groups.

    Most Nigerians had questioned the decision, saying that it was meant to undermine and erode the constitutional powers of INEC to conduct elections in Nigeria.

    Presenting the motion for re-commital of some of clauses on Electoral Act repeal and re-enactment bill 2021, Sen Abdullahi said after critical examination of the bill by the Senate Committee on INEC, noted that there were some fundamental issues which required fresh legislative action on some clauses.

    The clauses according to Abubakar are 43, 52, 63, and 87.

    He said there was a need to address the observation by the committee and make necessary amendments based on order 1 (b) and 53(6) of the Senate standing order.

    “Senate accordingly rescinds it’s decision on the affected clauses of the bill as passed and re-commit same to the committee of the whole for consideration and passage ,” Abubakar said.

    Contributing, Sen.Adamu Alero (APC-Kebbi),who seconded the motion said the motion would strengthen the electoral process and give Nigerians more power to select their desired leaders.

    He said the motion, if adopted would help the electorate to ensure that questionable characters are not elected in governance.

    According to Alero, the motion would discourage money bags from taking over and determine the outcome of elections in the country.

    However, Sen. Smart Adeyemi (APC-Kogi) was against the amendment of clause 87 to introduce direct primary election.

    The clause had earlier prescribed for political parties to decide to conduct direct or indirect primary elections.

    Adeyemi, however, said motion to amend the clause to introduce direct primaries would make the electoral process burdensome to the people.

    Other Senators, who also supported the motion for amendment includes Senators Opeyemi Bamidela (APC-Ekiti) Enyinnaya Abaribe (PDP-Abia)Abdulfatai Buhari (APC-Oyo).

    Senate after a voice vote amended the clause 52 to now empower INEC to determine mode of voting and transmission of results.

    Other clauses that Senate rescinded its decision was on clauses 43, ,63, and 87.which borders on mode of conduct of primary elections by political parties, ballot boxes and voting devices

    President of the Senate, Ahmad Lawan in his remarks, urged members of the Senate conference committee to take into consideration, the debates of senators during harmonisation of the bill with the House of Representatives Conference Committee.

    See clauses of the Electoral Bill, 2021, considered and passed by the Senate:

    a. Clause 43 dealing with Ballot boxes and Voting Devices.

    – Insertion of the word ” Electronic Voting Machine” in subsections (1) and (3).

    b. Clause 52 dealing with Conduct of Poll by Open Secret Ballot.

    – Amendment to subsection (2) by substituting with a new subsection which reads “Subject to section 63 of this Bill, voting at an election and transmission of results under this Bill shall be in accordance with the procedure determined by the Commission”; and also the deletion of subsection 3.

    c. Clause 63 which deals with Counting of Votes and Forms.

    – Amendment to subsection (5) by deleting the word “transmit” and replacing with “transfer”.

    d. Clause 87 which dealing with Nomination of Candidates by Parties.

    – Amendment to subsection (1) by substituting with a new subsection which reads ” A Political party seeking to nominate candidates for elections under this Bill shall hold direct primaries for aspirants to all elective positions, which shall be monitored by the Commission”.

    – Insertion of new subsection (3) which reads “The procedure for the nomination of candidates by political parties for the various elective positions by direct primaries shall ensure that all aspirants are given equal opportunities of being voted for by members of the party and given opportunity to have agents for the purpose of monitoring the primaries”.

    – Insertion of new subsection (4) which reads” The procedure adopted for the direct primaries shall be spelt out in a guideline to be issued by the political party and filed with the Commission at least 14days before the primary election”.

    – Insertion of new subsection (5) which reads ” A political party shall maintain register of its members and provide in the guideline for the conduct of the primaries that the register of its members shall be used for accreditation for the primaries”.

    – Insertion of a new subsection (6) which reads” The Commission shall deploy personnel to monitor the primaries in all the centers where the direct primaries are held”.

    – Insertion of a new subsection (7) which reads ” Every aspirants cleared by the party to contest at the primary shall be entitled to a copy of the guideline not later than 14days before the conduct of the primaries”.

    – Amendment to subsection (8) by deleting “High Court of a State of FCT”

  • BREAKING: House of Reps names conference committee on Electoral Act

    BREAKING: House of Reps names conference committee on Electoral Act

    The House of Representatives on Tuesday named a seven-man conference committee to work with the Senate to harmonise grey areas in the Electoral Act amendment bill passed by both chambers before their summer break.

    Members of the Committee include Akeem Adeyemi, who will lead the team; James Abiodun Faleke (APC, Lagos); Aisha Dukku (APC, Gombe); Blessing Onuh (APC, Benue); Nyima Idem (PDP, Akwa Ibom); Chris Azubogu (PDP, Anambra) and Abdullahi Kalambaina (APC, Sokoto).

    The Conference Committee is to work with the Senate Committee, which was constituted on resumption of plenary to perfect the Electoral Act and get it ready for Presidential assent.

    Although it is not clear how long the committee has to carry out it’s assignment, the House has said it was committed to passing the electoral Act to provide for the smooth conduct of the 2023 general elections.