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Tag: GDP

  • Nigeria’s GDP improves by 4.03% in Q3 2021 – NBS

    Nigeria’s GDP improves by 4.03% in Q3 2021 – NBS

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), says Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 4.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2021.

    This is according to a report released by the NBS on Nigerian Gross Domestic Product Report (Expenditure and Income Approach) for Q3, Q4 2021 in Abuja on Wednesday.

    According to the report, in the third quarter of 2021, Nigeria’s real GDP at basic prices grew by 4.03 per cent on a year-on-year basis showing a steady improvement from the economic downturn in 2020.

    The NBS said that growth improved further in the fourth quarter of 2021 with a positive GDP growth rate of 3.98 per cent.

    “The negative quarterly growths in Q2 and Q3 2020 resulted in a recession, which led to a negative annual growth rate of -1.92 per cent for 2020, compared to 2.27 per cent in 2019 on a year-on-year basis. ”

    “Annual growth in 2021 stood at 3.40 per cent, an improvement of 2020. Compared to the third and fourth quarters of 2020, the performance in 2021 indicated an increase of 7.65 per cent points and 3.87 per cent points higher, respectively.’’

    The report said Household Consumption Expenditure in Q3 and Q4 2021, grew by 19.36 per cent and 7.30 per cent in real terms, year-on-year.

    For 2021, the annual growth rate in real household consumption expenditure stood at 25.65 per cent compared to -1.69 per cent recorded in 2020.

    “The observed trend in 2020 indicates that real household consumption expenditure declined in Q1 and Q2 accounting for negative growth rates informed by the COVID 19 pandemic.

    “However, positive growth rates were recorded in Q3 and Q4 of 2020 as well as the four quarters of 2021.’’

    Household consumption expenditure consists of expenditure, including imputed expenditure, incurred by resident households on individual consumption goods and services.

    It said that Government Consumption Expenditure recorded growth rates of -39.51 per cent and -16.76 per cent in Q3 and Q4 of 2021 respectively, year-on-year.

    The Bureau said the annual growth rate according to the report stood at -34.03 per cent in 2021, compared to 61.58 per cent in 2020.

    The report said Net Exports recorded positive growth rates in the first two quarters of 2020 and shifted to negative growth rates in the third and fourth quarters of 2020.

    The negative growth rate was also recorded in the first three quarters of 2021, a departure from the trend in 2019.

    It, however, said that Net exports grew in real terms in Q3 and Q4 of 2021 by -38.27 per cent and 1.35 per cent respectively.

    “On an annual basis, net exports grew by -55.77 per cent in 2021, compared to -13.17 per cent recorded in 2020.’’

    The report said that National Disposable Income grew by -1.48 per cent in the third quarter of 2021 and 2.84 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2021.

    However, a growth of 0.32 per cent and -1.28 per cent in Q3 and Q4 of 2020 on a year-on-year basis in real terms was recorded.

    This gave a slower growth rate of -2.52 per cent for the annual figure in 2021, compared to a positive growth rate at the end of 2020 (1.07 per cent).

    The report said Compensation of Employees during the third and fourth quarters of 2021 grew by 14.54 per cent, and 11.79 per cent respectively in real terms on a year-on-year basis.

    “For 2021, growth rate stood at 13.68 per cent compared to 0.96 per cent in 2020,’’ it said.

  • Nigeria’s economy grows by 4.03% in Q3, 2021 — NBS

    Nigeria’s economy grows by 4.03% in Q3, 2021 — NBS

    Mr Simon Harry, the Statistician-General of the Federation and Head of National Bureau of Statistics, has declared that the nation’s economy grew by 4.03 per cent in the Third Quarter of 2021.

    He made the announcement on Thursday in Abuja at a media conference on the present state of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

    Harry explained that the negative GDP figures recorded in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic had serious base effects on the GDP figures for quarters two and three 2021.

    “You will recall that the contraction of quarters two and three of 2020 has resulted to positive growth as recorded consecutively for the last three quarters of quarter four, 2020 with 0.11 per cent, quarter one, 2021 with 0.51 per cent and quarter two, 2021 with 5.01 per cent.

    “This base effects continued to quarter three of 2021 recording a growth of 4.03 per cent.”

    He stated that the improvement being seen in the output growth over the last four quarters depicts a steady progress made in stemming the Covid-19 pandemic and the associated negative impact on livelihood, well-being and the economy.

    He said, “Globally, many countries have witnessed an improvement in economic performances compared to 2020 when Covid-19 was endemic.

    “Thus, economic recovery is a gradual process that requires consistent collective efforts to improve economic activities across the institutional sectors.

    “However, in Nigeria, the prospect of full recovery is glaring provided the current trend of improved economic performance is sustained in the rest of the year and beyond.

    “It is important to also mention that annual GDP growth of 2021 stands at -1.92 per cent.”

    The overview of the report noted that aggregate GDP stood at N45.113 trillion in nominal term, a performance higher when compared with the third quarter of 2020, which recorded aggregate GDP of N39.089 trillion, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 15.41 per cent.

    It classified the Nigerian economy into the oil and non-oil sectors.

    For the oil sector, the report said that the nation, in the third quarter of 2021 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.57 million barrels per day (mbpd).

    This, it said, was lower than the daily average production of 1.67mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2020 by 0.10mbpd and lower than the second quarter 2021 production volume of 1.61mbpd by 0.05mbpd.

    It also said that real growth of the oil sector was –10.73 per cent (year-on-year) in quarter three 2021, indicating an increase by 3.16 per cent relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020.

    It added that the oil sector contributed 7.49 per cent to total real GDP in the quarter, down from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2020 and up compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 8.73 per cent and 7.42 per cent respectively.

    For the non-oil sector, the NBS said that it grew by 5.44 per cent in real terms during the reference quarter, higher by 7.95 per cent compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2020 and 1.30 per cent lower than the second quarter of 2021.

    “This sector was driven in third quarter 2021 mainly by trade, Information and Communication (Telecommunication), other drivers include financial and insurance (financial institutions) and manufacturing (food, beverage and tobacco).

    It said, “Others are agriculture (crop production) and transportation and storage (road transport), accounting for positive GDP growth.

    ” In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 92.51 per cent to the nation’s GDP in third quarter 2021, higher from share recorded in the third quarter of 2020 which was 91.27 per cent and lower than the second quarter of 2021 which recorded 92.58 per cent.”

    The GDP helps to determine the structure and dynamics of an economy, which by implication measures the performance of the economy within a given period of time.

  • US president Lincoln was right about people fooling people – Dele Sobowale

    US president Lincoln was right about people fooling people – Dele Sobowale

    By Dele Sobowale

    “You can fool some of the people all the time; you can fool all the people some of the time; but, you can’t fool all the people all the time.

    Lincoln, 1809-1865, VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ p 62.

    When the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, NBS, published the result of the performance of the Nigeria economy in the second quarter, Q221, it almost achieved the unheard of feat of fooling all the people of Nigeria all the time. The new Statistician General, SG, of the NBS deserves an award for successful propaganda. Never in my over 30 years of writing articles for VANGUARD was a deceitful report so successful in getting so many astute people fooled as the report released on August 26, 2021. It was a master-piece of statistical fraud in which a disgraceful failure was presented as a wonderful achievement. Nut, before revealing the clever fake news, let me demonstrate how the media and some respected commentators were caught in the web of deceit. Two examples will help in this regard.

    BISMARK REWANE AND PETER OBI.

    “If gold rusts, what then will iron do? Geoffrey Chauser, 1342-1400.

    One of the people I never would have thought would never be caught in the FG’s web of deceit is Bismarck Rewane, the Chief Executive Officer of Financial Derivatives Company Limited. I read everything Rewane is credited with; and agree with his position 90% of the time. But, I was shocked to read that he said that “the Nigerian economy is rising, and inflation rate is falling, but more people are living below the poverty line.” Unfortunately for Rewane, a member of the Presidential Economic Advisory Council, PEAC, which had been rendered redundant since it was established, even the NBS did not claim that the economy grew in Q221. Not at all, as I will shortly prove from what NBS released to a Nigerian public whose opinion leaders sometimes don’t read carefully; or don’t read at all, the relevant document.

    Peter Obi, ex-Governor, ex-banker, should have been Vice President of Nigeria today if his country is not populated by 200 million – mostly fools. He understands figures and can interpret statistical data. When asked what he thought about the 5% growth recorded for Q221, Obi, apparently believed that there was indeed, positive growth during the period under review. His quarrel with the announcement was that “growth with rising poverty is meaningless.” Again, Obi missed the main point. There was no growth in Q221; so he should have dismissed the idea as fake news.

    EVEN MEDAI WAS TOTALLY FOOLED.

    “Nigeria records 5% GDP growth, economists doubt figure”

    National Paper, Friday, August 27, 2021 page 20.

    Several newspapers carried a summary of the NBS report on their front page. Most got it partly right; but, still fell for into the trap of deception laid by NBS.

    To start with, I received two text messages on late night August 26, 2021, from those who received the news on late night television report. “Have you heard that the GDP grew by 5% in the second quarter of 2021?” To the two individuals, my answer was the same. “I have not seen the report; but I am certain the economy did not grow by 5% in Q221”. So, I was one of the economists who doubted the figures. We knew from long time experience how a government failing seriously resorts to propaganda.

    A few days after the false report by the national paper, it ran an editorial based on the fallacious 5% Q221 growth. I was alarmed. This is a leading paper influencing a lot of decision makers at home and abroad making such a serious mistake by advancing the false narrative the Buhari administration wanted people to believe. It is pathetic.

    WHAT REALLY HAPPENED IN Q221?

    “GDP rises 5% YoY, declines 0.8% QoQ.” VANGUARD, AUGUST 27, 2021.

    Virtually all the other newspapers I read on that day – NATION, DAILY INDEPENDENT, GUARDIAN – summarised the NBS report correctly. Even then, they still managed to partly fall into the trap set by NBS – whose managers realise that most Nigerians don’t know the meaning of YoY or QoQ. Let me start from there to open your eyes to how you have been fooled.

    First, YoY means Year On Year; that means Q221 is compared with Q220. That also means that Q221 does not stand alone. The 5% only means that Q221 was better than Q220 by 5%; not that the economy grew by 5% in ​Q221.

    Second, and this is the truth cleverly hidden from non-economists. QoQ means Quarter On Quarter. The comparison is between Q121 and Q221. And, what was the result? It was -0.80% approximately. That also means that the Nigerian economy actually declined by -0.80% in Q221 over Q121. It was not only a disaster; Nigeria has taken the first step towards another recession. Another negative growth in the third quarter, Q3, of this year will result in recession for two years in a row. We are not finished yet with this bogus report.

    The first quarter, Q121, recorded 0.5% growth over the fourth quarter of 2020, Q420. The second quarter of 2021, Q221, declined by -0.78%. Simple arithmetic should tell the reader that by the end of the first half of 2021, the Nigerian economy is down by-0.28% over Q420.

    WHY WAS THE RESULT BAD?

    “Nigeria, 39 others may not attain pre-Covid-19 GDP levels by 2026 – W’Bank.”

    News Report, September 23, 2021.

    The World Bank, which received its own copy of the Q221 report from Nigeria, did not fall into the NBS trap. They expected a negative result; and so did I. we were not surprised that it was -0.78% drop instead of the 5% which is being celebrated by the Nigerian government. It was because there was no 5% growth that nobody observed any improvement in our economic environment.

    Economies grow on four variables – consumption, government spending, investments and aggregate productivity. Two sectors are very important in this regard – export of crude oil and agriculture. One or the two will have to grow by 5% or more for us to achieve that level of growth. In Q221, both suffered setbacks. Nigeria was incapable of exporting its quota of crude oil – despite the price increase experienced during the period under review. Bandits, kidnappers and herdsmen drove more farmers off the land in 2Q221 than at any time in our history. Obviously, agricultural productivity also contracted. These were the realities which defined the actual result; instead of the contrived report issued by the NBS.

    What the NBS did was actually unprofessional. A honest economic/financial report will first state what happened during the period under review before going into comparative analysis. The Nigerian economy contracted by -0.78 per cent in Q221. That is the actual report; and, it is not favourable. So, instead of telling us the plain truth, the NBS led with more favourable comparative analysis. They achieved the intended result. They confused most Nigerians – including those I never thought would fall for the trick. But, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, African Development Bank, the UNDP, as well as other international monitoring entities were not fooled. A Nigerian professor of Political Economy in the US called me to ask if there are intelligent people left in Nigeria. He could not understand the euphoria over failure.

     

  • Nigeria’s economy gradually picking up – Minister of Finance

    Nigeria’s economy gradually picking up – Minister of Finance

    The Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs Zainab Ahmed has said Nigeria’s economy is gradually picking up.

    Ahmed disclosed this on Monday in Abuja, the federal capital territory (FCT) while briefing newsmen on the country’s recently recorded Q2 GDP.

    Recall that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently announced the GDP growth of 5.01 per cent for Q2 2021 for the country.

    The NBS revealed that during the quarter, Nigeria’s GDP grew by 5.01 per cent, year-on-year, in real terms, resulting in the third consecutive quarter growth since last year’s shutdown.

    According to the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, the 2021 Q2 growth rate reflects much better economic performance compared to the same period last year, which recorded -6.10 per cent growth rate.

    “Furthermore, it was also better than the previous quarter (Q1) growth rate of 0.51 per cent on a year-on- year basis. Year to date, real GDP grew 2.70 per cent in 2021, compared to -2.18 per cent for the first half of 2020.

    “Broadly speaking, the services sector recorded a strong performance growing at 9.27 per cent during the quarter, representing the fastest growth in the services sector since 2010.

    “Growth in Q2 2021 would have been much stronger had it not been for agriculture recording slower growth at 1.30 per cent.

    “It was due to several bottlenecks currently negatively affecting the sector and due to the Industrial sector contracting by -123 per cent largely due to the over 12 per cent contraction in crude oil and natural gas production.

    “Nonetheless, the non-oil sector was a major driver of growth during the quarter, recording a growth rate of nearly seven per cent which represents the fastest growth in the non-oil sector Q3 2014.

    “Specific activities which recorded growth during the quarter include, trade, transportation, coal mining, metal ores, as well as insurance each of which recorded double digit growth” she said.

    Ahmed noted that these figures indicated that business and commercial activities were fully returning to pre-pandemic levels as restrictions in movement, business activities, as well as domestic and international travel had been relaxed.

    “When these estimates are considered along with declining inflation rate which slowed down from 18.17 per cent at the end of Q1 to 17.75 per cent at the end of Q2 and as at July, stands at 17.38 per cent.

    “It is clear that the economic recovery is gradually picking up steam. With favourable international economic conditions expected as economic activities and normalcy returns across major economies.

    “And as local conditions continue to improve to allow business activities, the Nigerian economy is expected to maintain a steady path to more inclusive growth,” the Minister said.

  • Nigeria records 5% GDP growth for second quarter

    Nigeria records 5% GDP growth for second quarter

    Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 5.01% (year-on-year) in real terms in the second quarter of 2021, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has said.

    The NBS disclosed this in the latest report on the nation’s GDP entitled Nigerian Gross Domestic Product Report (Q2 2021) released on Thursday.

    It explained that the increase in the GDP index marked three consecutive quarters of growth following the negative growth rates recorded in the second and third quarters of 2020.

    “The Q2 2021 growth rate was higher than the -6.10% growth rate recorded in Q2 2020 and the 0.51% recorded in Q1 2021 year-on-year, indicating the return of business and economic activity near levels seen prior to the nationwide implementation of COVID-19 related restrictions,” the report read.

    “The steady recovery observed since the end of 2020, with the gradual return of commercial activity, as well as local and international travel, accounted for the significant increase in growth performance relative to the second quarter of 2020 when nationwide restrictions took effect.

    “Year to date, real GDP grew 2.70% in 2021 compared to -2.18% for the first half of 2020.”

    But the real GDP (quarter-on-quarter) grew at -0.79% in Q2 2021 compared to Q1 2021, indicating slightly slower economic activity than the preceding quarter due largely to seasonality.

    In the quarter under review, the NBS revealed that the aggregate GDP stood at N39,123,713.32 million in nominal terms – higher than the second quarter of 2020 with aggregate GDP of N34,023,197.60 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 14.99%.

    It added that the nominal GDP growth rate in Q2 2021 was higher than -2.80% growth recorded in the second quarter of 2020 when economic activities slowed sharply at the outset of the pandemic.

    “The Q2 2021 nominal growth rate was also higher than 12.25% growth recorded in Q1 2021,” the agency said.

    In the oil sector, the NBS disclosed that the average daily oil production stood at 1.61 million barrels per day (mbpd) in Q2 2021, saying the value was -0.19mbpd lower than the average daily production of 1.81mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2020, and -0.10mbpd lower than the 1.72mbpd recorded in the first quarter of 2021.

    It stated that the real growth of the oil sector was –12.65% (year-on-year) in Q2 2021, indicating a decrease of –6.02% points relative to the growth rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2020.

    Data from the report showed that growth decreased by – 10.44% points when compared to Q1 2021 which was –2.21%.

    “For the first half of 2021, real GDP was recorded at -7.13%, compared to -0.80% for the first half of 2020, the performance reflecting lower oil output.

    “Quarter-on-quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of -20.35% in Q2 2021. The Oil sector contributed 7.42% to total real GDP in Q2 2021, down from figures recorded in the corresponding period of 2020, and down compared to the preceding quarter, where it contributed 8.93% and 9.25% respectively,” the report said.

    It added, “The non-oil sector grew by 6.74% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q2 2021). The Q2 2021 growth rate was higher by 12.80% points compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2020 and 5.95% points higher than the first quarter of 2021.”

    The NBS explained that during the quarter, the sector was driven mainly by growth in Trade, Information and Communication (Telecommunication), Transportation (Road Transport), Electricity, Agriculture (Crop Production) and Manufacturing (Food, Beverage & Tobacco), reflecting the easing of movement, business and economic activity across the country relative to the same period a year earlier.

    “In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 92.58% to the nation’s GDP in the second quarter of 2021, higher from shares recorded in the second quarter of 2020 which was 91.07% and the first quarter of 2021 recorded as 90.75%,” the report said.

  • NCC surpasses revenue projection, records N150bn spectrum fees

    NCC surpasses revenue projection, records N150bn spectrum fees

    The Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) has exceeded its N36 billion projected revenue from spectrum license fees for 2021.

    The Commission said that it had recorded over N150 billion from this revenue source within the five months of the year.

    Dr Ikechukwu Adinde, Director, Public Affairs, made this known in a statement on Sunday in Abuja.

    Adinde said that the figure represents over 400 per cent increase in revenue budget performance in respect of spectrum fees generated by the commission between January 1 and May 31, 2021.

    He said that this reflected significant contribution to the revenue drive of the Federal Government.

    According to him, the N150 billion spectrum revenue achieved in the first half of the year has been remitted to the government in line with the provisions of the Nigerian Communications Act (NCA), 2003.

    The act mandates the Commission to remit proceeds from spectrum resources wholly into the government’s Consolidated Revenue Fund (CRF).

    The Commission, in its 2021 Budget, approved by both chambers of the National Assembly in December, 2020, projected a revenue of N36 billion from spectrum fee for the year 2021 but has remarkably surpassed this estimate.

    He noted that over the years, the NCC had put in place an effective regulatory regime which had significantly facilitated advancements in the nation’s telecoms industry.

    The director also said that it boosted Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and improved the operations of licensees as well as boosted the government’s revenue generation.

    Commenting on the revenue performance, the Executive Vice-Chairman (EVC) of the Commission, Prof. Umar Danbatta, said that the impressive uptick in spectrum fee was the result of the favourable turn of events for the telecom sector.

    Danbatta said that at the time of preparing the estimates for the 2021 Budget of the Commission, it was not clear due to the ravaging impact of COVID-19 on the global economy.

    He noted that the 10-year spectrum fees made by some of the major operators directly impacted the projected spectrum fee favourably.

    The EVC, however, said that the commission believed that enthronement of effective regulation would continue to improve the general performance of the telecoms sector.

    Recall that on October 28, 2020, the NCC had generated and remitted N344.71 billion to the government’s Consolidated RevenueFund (CRF) in the last five years.

  • Pantami expresses delight as ICT contributes 6.47% to GDP in 2021 Q1

    Pantami expresses delight as ICT contributes 6.47% to GDP in 2021 Q1

    The Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Dr Isa Pantami, has expressed delight at the 6.47 per cent contribution by the ICT sector to the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first Quarter of 2021.

    Pantami expressed this in a statement issued by Dr Femi Adeluyi, IT Technical Assistant to the Minister in Abuja.

    According to Pantami, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Q1 report said Nigeria’s GDP grew by 0.51 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2021,

    This, he said, marked two consecutive quarters of growth following the negative growth rates recorded in the second and third quarters of 2020.

    “In terms of contribution to aggregate GDP, the oil sector accounted for 9.25per cent of aggregate real GDP in Q1 2021, while the non-oil sector accounted for 90.75 per cent.

    “Growth in the non-oil sector was driven mainly by the Information and Communication, Telecommunication sector, while other drivers include agriculture, manufacturing of food, beverage and real estate.

    “Others are construction, human health and social services and it is worthy of note that the ICT sector grew by 6.47 per cent in Q1 2021, making it the fastest growing significant sector of the Nigerian economy,” it said.

    Other areas that grew the economy were Post and Courier Services which grew by 2.53 per cent, while it was noted that the services were under the supervision of the Ministry of Communications and Digital Economy, however listed under the transportation sector in the GDP report.

    The minister attributed the consistent positive performance of the ICT sector to the focused and committed support for the administration of President Muhammadu Buhari for the Digital Economy sector.

    “The Federal Government has provided an enabling environment for the ICT sector to thrive, through the development and implementation of relevant policies.

    “These include the National Digital Economy Policy for a Digital Nigeria, Nigerian National Broadband Plan and the Revised National Digital Identity Policy for SIM Card Registration, amongst others.

    “The GDP Report has shown that the ICT sector continues to serve as a catalyst for the growth and diversification of our economy,” Pantami said.

    He, however, congratulated the Chief Executive Officers of the parastatals under the Ministry and stakeholders on the consistent performance of the sector and encouraged them to continue supporting the policies of the Federal Government.

    The ICT had in 2020 contributed 17.83 per cent to the nation’s economy.

  • Nigeria’s GDP records 0.51% growth in 2021 first quarter

    Nigeria’s GDP records 0.51% growth in 2021 first quarter

    Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has recorded a growth of 0.51 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2021.

    The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disclosed this in the latest Nigerian Gross Domestic Product Report released on Sunday.

    It noted that the new figure represented two consecutive quarters of growth following the negative growth rates recorded in the second and third quarters of 2020.

    The rate of growth recorded in the first quarter of 2021 was slower than the 1.87 per cent rate recorded in the first quarter of 2020.

    However, the figure was higher than the 0.11 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020, indicative of a slow but continuous recovery.

     

    “Nevertheless, quarter on quarter, real GDP grew at -13.93% in Q1 2021 compared to Q4 2020, reflecting a generally slower pace of economic activities at the start of the year.

    “In the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N40,014,482.74 million in nominal terms. This performance is higher when compared to the first quarter of 2020 which recorded aggregate GDP of N35,647,406.08 million, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 12.25 per cent,” the report read.

    It added, “The nominal GDP growth rate in Q1 2021 was higher relative to 12.01 per cent growth recorded in the first quarter of 2020, as well as the 10.07 per cent growth recorded in the preceding quarter.

    “For better clarity, the Nigerian economy has been classified broadly into the oil and non-oil sectors.”

    The GDP report revealed that the oil sector contracted by 2.21 per cent, compared to the -19.76 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020, while non-oil GDP grew 0.79 per cent, lower than the 1.69 per cent positive growth in the preceding quarter.

     

    According to the NBS, the growth in the non-oil sector was driven mainly by the Information and Communication (Telecommunication) sector.

    Other drivers included agriculture (crop production); manufacturing (food, beverage, and tobacco); real estate; construction, human health and social services.

    “In real terms, the non-oil sector accounted for 90.75 per cent of aggregate GDP in the first quarter of 2021, higher than its share in the first quarter of 2020 which was 90.50 per cent but lower than 94.13 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020,” the report said.

    The second consecutive real GDP growth showed that the economy was slowly recovering after slipping into a recession following the negative growth rates recorded in the second and third quarters of 2020.

  • NBS to re-base Nigeria’s GDP in 2021

    NBS to re-base Nigeria’s GDP in 2021

    Yemi Kale, the Statistician-General of the Federation and CEO of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has said the nation will re-base its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) later in the year.

    He said this on Thursday in Abuja during a media conference on the significance of the on-going National Survey of Establishment (NSE).

    He said when completed, the NSE would provide updated sectoral information on 17 broad economic activities and give a better reflection of the commercial structure and composition of the Nigerian economy.

    “It would also provide useful information for policymakers on the activities driving the Nigerian economy and those that require government intervention and serve as a benchmark for subsequent commercial and industrial sector statistics.

    “In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic when many businesses and commercial activities have been impacted severely, a survey such as this, with the information to emanate, is extremely invaluable to designing and planning for the post-COVID-19 long term growth and development of the private sector in Nigeria.”

    The Statistician-General said that the NSE was last conducted in 2012/13 just before the last GDP re-basing exercise.

    Kale added that it would be a significant input to the proposed GDP re-basing that would move the current 2010 base year to a new base year, 2019.

    He, however, said that the objective of the NSE was basically to update business data base which would enhance the GDP re-basing.

    According to him, another significant input to the re-basing is the National Agriculture Sample Census, to be conducted later in the year also.

    Kale said that the NBS enumerated over 1.4 million business establishments in the National Business Sample Census (NBSC) 2020/21 which started in October 2020.

    The NSE is the second part of the NBSC, which by design has two major components.

    “The first component is the listing or enumeration of business and commercial establishments across the country, while the second part is the sample survey, which is currently going on.”

    He said that a set of criteria had to be met by the establishments to qualify for enumeration.

    The criteria include that the establishment must have a fixed location and operate from a fixed structure that could be locked up.

    He said that the purpose was to ensure that the businesses could be easily located for future data collection activities.

    “The data retrieved from the businesses during the listing exercise were the establishment’s contact details, nature of the business and ownership structure, number of employees, and GPS location.

    “The sample survey which commenced with the training of field personnel two weeks ago, essentially, takes a sample of the enumerated business establishments under the listing exercise.”

    According to Kale, the sample is drawn scientifically taking the business size and the structure of the economy into consideration.

    He added that the survey would collect detailed information concerning the establishment with a view to understanding the general status of business and commercial activities within the country.

    Kale said that approximately 20,000 establishments (Micro, Small, Medium, and large) had been selected across 17 broad economic sectors.

    They are mining and quarrying, manufacturing , electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation, construction, trade, accommodation and food services.

    Others are transportation and storage, information and communication, arts, entertainment and recreation, financial and insurance, real estate, professional, scientific, technical services, administrative and support services, education, human health and social services and other services.

    According to him, the 17 sectors represent the entire economic classification of the Nigerian economy, except for agriculture and the public sector.

    He added that due to the nature of agriculture activities, the sector would be adequately covered in the National Agriculture Sample Census.

    Kale said that the information being solicited were establishment identification, employment, wages and salaries among others.

    He said that after a successful training organised for the field personnel that lasted seven days, field data collection started on Feb. 1 and was expected to run for another two weeks.

    “NBS enumerators during this period will be visiting selected establishments across the 17 sectors in the country to canvass for information.

    “Questionnaires will be deposited with these establishments and retrieved on a later date as agreed with the firms, or in some cases, completed on the spot where the relevant officers are available to be interviewed.”

    He, however, appealed to sampled establishments to kindly provide the requested information accurately and timely.

    Kale assured that any data collected from businesses during the exercise would be treated with utmost confidentiality and be solely used for the stated purposes and nothing else.

    “This is also enshrined on our law, the Statistical Act 2007, which explicitly mandates us to only use information collected from respondents for the purpose for which it was collected, and further forbid us passing it on to a third party.

    “Therefore, establishments should rest assured that their information is perfectly safe in our hands.”

  • Broadband penetration hits 45.43% in Nigeria

    Broadband penetration hits 45.43% in Nigeria

    The Minister of Communications and Digital Economy, Dr Isa Pantami, says broadband penetration in Nigeria increased to 45.43 per cent in October.

    Dr Femi Adeluyi, Technical Assistant on Information Technology to the minister, said this in a statement on Wednesday in Abuja.

    Adeluyi said that this was due to an increase of 4,061,731 broadband subscriptions between September and October 2020.

    “This increase in broadband penetration has been as a result of conscientious implementation of the National Digital Economy Policy for the overall benefit of the economy to achieve a Digital Nigeria.

    “The Nigerian National Broadband Plan (2020-2025), along with the harmonisation of Right of Way charges across the states and protection of critical national infrastructure across the country, had a significant impact on the broadband penetration,” he said.

    He said that broadband was critical to sustainable economic growth.

    He quoted the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) Broadband Series as saying: “Broadband contributes to economic growth through more efficiency in business processes, acceleration of innovation and more efficient functional deployment of enterprises.”

    “A report titled -How important are mobile broadband networks for Global Economic Development.

    “It shows that 10 per cent increase in mobile broadband penetration results is approximately 0.6 per cent to 2.8 per cent rise in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

    “In some countries, it increases the GDP by over 6 per cent. The increase in broadband penetration is leading to the growth of Nigeria’s economy in a way that transcends the ICT sector.”

    Adeluyi, however, noted that broadband had supported growth and enabled financial institutions in the delivery of services to their customers.

    He said that it has also enabled the provision of digital services across the different sectors of the economy.

    “It is noteworthy that all these are part of the digital economy, which has been defined as that part of economic output derived solely or primarily from digital technologies with a business model based on digital goods or services, consisting of the digital sector plus emerging digital and platform services,” he said.

    He said that the minister had directed the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) and the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), who were regulators of internet services, to ensure that quality of service was improved.

    He also said that the minister urged all stakeholders to keep supporting the ministry in the implementation of the Broadband Plan for the overall benefit of the economy.