By Abdulmutallib Abubakar
Political campaigns for the 2023 elections at Gombe and Bauchi States level are dominated and influenced by incumbency power, godfatherism, internal party politics and involvement of traditional leadership such as emirates councils and other monarchs. In Gombe State, the gubernatorial candidates are Muhammadu Inuwa Yahaya, the incumbent governor contesting under the All Progressive Congress (APC), Muhammad Jibrin Dan Barde and Alhaji Kamisu Ahmad Mai Lantarki, who are contesting under People Democratic Party (PDP) and New Nigerian Political Party (NNPP) respectively. The candidates have nearly equal chance of winning the election, but the campaign patterns seem to be largely controlled and determined by amount of money injected by candidates, most often to rent halls and crowds, use public places, travel to the 11 local governments, wards and villages as well as paying for airtimes on radio and television stations. It can be argued that the incumbent governor who is vying for the second term is more visible than other contestants and therefore, has a slight edge. The governor has structured the campaign from the ward level to local government and state levels while other contestants do not have the required financial resources to tour all the locations, which greatly put them at disadvantage.
The disadvantage for the serving governor is that he does not seem to be getting the desired blessings from many political godfathers who appear to be adamant not to support his campaigns either financially or physically. This gives other candidates from PDP and NNPP some hope. The campaigns do not also appear to have been getting the required support from other political gladiators in the state and even royal blessings from some traditional rulers that are considered influential.
The incumbent Governor campaigns on the evidence of infrastructure he claims to have put in place in the state. This is always a claim that comes from incumbency and only the public can verify such claims. Other contestants on the other hand campaign on promise or perceived shortcomings of the incumbent.
Ordinarily, one would think the PDP is the main challenger to the APC in the gubernatorial contest. In reality though, the strong showing of Mail Lantarki, the NNPP candidate indicates that it is still a matter of conjecture who the main challenger is. PDP is strong because it has previously held power in the state. However, observers point to the leadership inexperience of the current party’s flagbearer and his alleged erratic behaviour including recorded indecent audio utterances alleged to be made by him and seen as unbecoming of a person aspiring to an office as Governor.
However, all these may come to nothing if the voters deem the baggage of the incumbent governor to be heavier.
On the other hand, the political campaigns in Bauchi state have similar pattern of contest. The only difference being is the players. The ruling party in Bauchi is an opposition party at the national level. So the campaigns is as hot as election. It is a hot contest as no political party can claim to have a smooth sail and strong comparative advantage. The contest is between three (3) political parties namely PDP, APC and NNPP. The APC is the major opposition party in state. APC ruled the state between 2015 and 2019 and has the majority members of the State Assembly and National Assembly. The party’s gubernatorial candidate is a former Chief of Air Staff, Sadiqque Baba Abubakar who defeated some prominent politicians in a keenly contested APC primary election back in August, 2022. Sadiqque had a successful military career and is popular among the electorate. He is relying on his popularity to campaign and to unseat the incumbent. Sadiqque’s major strength is his duality – having come from Giade LGA which is part of Katagum Emirates and was born and brought up in Bauchi Metropolis. He has also been a philanthropist, having set up a Foundation that support many people in the state since before he became the Chief Air Marshal. Sadiqque’s running mate is also a political heavy weight in Bauchi State. Many see Sadiqque’s choice of Abdullahi Shehu (Barden Gabas) as a running mate is because he is very popular and is loved by people especially within the state capital whom he once represented at the lower chamber of the National Assembly.
The NNPP is also a force to reckon with in the elections in Bauchi State because of its flag bearer, Halliru Dauda Jika who is a grassroots politician and a household name in Bauchi politics. Dokaji as he is fondly called, was a member of State Assembly who was also elected Speaker between 2007 and 2015, Member House of Representatives between 2015 and 2019 and a Senator from 2019 to date. He was formerly in APC before he defected to NNPP after losing primary election. He is very popular among the youths and women. He is banking on his popularity in the campaign.
The incumbent Governor of the state Bala Mohammed is the standing bearer of the PDP in the state. Apart from the incumbency factor, there are various projects executed by his administration that may favour him and he is using them in the campaign. Another factor that will work in his favour is that he is from Bauchi South senatorial district – a zone that has produced all the governors of the state since the return of democracy in 1999. He was brought to power through protest votes organised and supported by some political gladiators and masses, who were not happy with M.A Abubakar’s APC administration in 2019, despite the corruption allegations against him when he was the FCT minister. However, Bala Mohammed seems to be falling out with his supporters including the political gladiators and godfathers because of his nature of administration, which many people described as self-centred as he failed to address the concerns of particularly civil servants. The incumbent Governor despite these challenges continue to be strong and confident in the face of the 2023 election. He has recently, during his campaign, visited some monarchs to seek their support.
There is also a fierce political contest for Bauchi South senatorial seat. The current occupant of the seat, Sen. Lawal Yahaya Gumau is contesting under the umbrella of the NNPP and hails from Toro local government area, the second largest area, he was representing at the Green Chamber of the National Assembly between 2011 and 2018. Following the demise of late Sen. Ali Wakili, Gumau contested and won the vacant Senatorial seat. He was re-elected in 2019 and is contesting for the third time now. Gumau is a grassroots politician and enjoys the support of Izala group being one of its top financiers in the state. He is said to have played major role in initiating and also playing vital role in the construction of Fortune University, Magaman Gumau – an institution owned by the religious sect.
APC candidate is, Hon Shehu Umar Buba, a former Caretaker Chairman of Toro LGA, a vibrant Youth and a community mobilizer. Shehu Buba enjoys the support of Miyatti Allah cattle breeders. He also enjoys the support of Izala. The PDP’s flag bearer is Hon. Garba Dahiru, the immediate past Commissioner for Information in the state. Dahiru is a seasoned journalist and he relies on the support of the state Governor.
The issues that may favour or disfavour Bala Muhammad campaigns include unnecessarily withholding salaries of State and Local Government workers thereby subjecting them to serious hardship – a factor many believed had contributed negatively against his predecessor, former governor Mohammad Abubakar; also his administration is termed as family and friends affair as his siblings occupy lucrative positions in the government and are said to be the ones undertaking major contracts in the state; the Governor romance with the G-5 governors may work against him because Atiku supporters such as Dr. Bello Kirfi and Sen. Abdul Ningi among others, have already withdrawn from providing support to Bala. In fact, the recent removal of Bello Kirfi as Wazirin Bauchi potents a great danger to the governor’s second term ambition.
On the other hand, the factors that may work against Sadiqque are first he is not ‘a career politician’; his wife that is the current Minister for Humanitarian Service and Social Investment, Sadiya Umar Faruq may have major influence on him; and lack of clear identity as he seems to be claiming both Bauchi and Katagum Emirates. While for Haliru Jika, the campaign against him are that: people are skeptical about his youthful age as he does not possess the needed maturity, which led to his impeachment as House speaker during the regime of Governor Isa Yuguda; the way he always lavishes money and displays affluence is also a cause for concern which may be used against him during campaigns.
