From all indications the battle of Adamawa PDP Governorship ticket will be between Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri and Ambassador Mohammed Jameel Abubakar-Waziri, former Chief of Protocol to former President Goodluck Jonathan.
In a poll conducted independently many factors will determine delegates’ voting patterns: politics, critical stakeholders’ interests, political errors and miscalculations, sentiment, geography including the smart application of war-chest.
Ambassador Jameel Abubakar-Waziri from the poll has a little edge over the incumbent despite his very large war-chest.
The incumbency factor equally has a major role to play if properly managed by Fintri.
Each aspirant has his advantages and baggage.
Fintiri already has 20% of delegates’ votes; because of incumbency
Mismanagement of relationships with critical stakeholders will deprive him of 35% of votes.
Sentiment, geography will deny /give him some 10% of the votes
Warchest will help him with 25% of his votes.
Ambassador Waziri will gain Fintiri’s losses- 35%
Sentiments, geography will give him 10%
War chest will give him 25%
Fintiri’s incumbency will deprive Waziri of some 25% of the delegates’ votes
Ambassador Waziri will gain some 30% bonus votes.
To clearly see how the PDP delegates will vote, the Adamawa PDP delegates’ votes should be split into 7 zones:
Zone 1: Numan Federation
Numan LGA
Demsa LGA
Lamurde LGA
Fintiri will do very well in Numan Federation, with Kwamoti Bitrus Laori as Fintiri’s point & right-hand man, deputy governor Crowther Seth is from the area, including the Deputy Speaker as well as the area has got a good number of appointments from the Fintiri governor.
However, some stakeholders will cast protest votes against Laori’s status- The person who solely calls the shots to the detriment of the other stakeholders. Despite its huge votes for Fintiri in 2019- Numan Federation as a whole has not attracted capital projects from the Fintiri government in correlation to its 2019 votes.
• Fintiri- 70%
• Jameel- 30%
Zone 2: Ganye Chiefdom:
Ganye LGA
Jada LGA
Toungo LGA
Mayo Belwa can be merged to LGAs
Ganye Chiefdom has some of the most important critical stakeholders in the Adamawa PDP- Former vice president Atiku Abubakar, Senator Binos Dauda Yaroe, Bamanga Tukur, PDP state Chairman A.T Shehu, Sheik Arabo, Yayah Mai Samari, etc – they are 100% determinants of how the delegates will votes. Many things will work against Fintiri- He has failed to manage his relationship with the critical stakeholders’, he only appears to be remorse when things are not in his favor- many people believe his sudden support for Atiku’s quest for the presidency in 2023 was as a result of his seeing calculations have hit the bricks: Pundits see Fintiri’s first term as a ‘bitter’ one to some of the stakeholders, thus his second term will be the most bitter- some pundits are of the view that – Fintiri with a second term mandate at his hands – will be a bull in a China shop with no apologies, thus if Ambassador Jameel can negotiate very well- Ganye Chiefdom is his.
• Fintiri- 35%
• Jameel – 65%
Zone 3:
Guyuk LGA
Shelleng LGA
If Fintiri has played his game smartly- Guyuk/Shelleng should have been a workover for him, but typical of his style; he has committed some avoidable mistakes- Firstly, his usual poor relationship with stakeholders- people like Dan Suleiman who is a founding member of the PDP (G34) many people have forgotten that he is a stakeholder in the Adamawa PDP, courtesy of Fintiri’s style of politics. Where is the likes of Mr. Ziyon? etc Fintiri will have many thorny issues in that regard. Another of Fintiri’s mistakes in that Zone is; the Guyuk Cement- there are complaints that Fintiri has blocked everybody from the process- in fact, Fintiri is solely speaking on behalf of the host community. The recent reconciliation between House of Reps member- Gibeon Goroki Miskaru and Fintiri, is a cosmetic one according to some political observers- it is just to respect Atiku Abubakar.
• Fintiri- 50%
• Jameel- 50%
Zone 4
Yola North LGA
Yola South LGA
Fufore LGA
Girei LGA
Fintiri will have a serious problem in that area- the ‘mark’ on him of being anti-Fulani will be used again him. Poor stakeholders’ relationship. In Yola-North for instance, out of the 24 critical stakeholders, only 6 are with him.
Chief Joel Madaki could have been Fintiri’s savior in the zone, but the Chief is quietly nursing his ‘wounds’ from Fintiri’s ‘whips’. Fintiri has promised the PDP Adamawa Central Senatorial ticket to 3 people in that area- one ticket- 3 promises. There is another sentiment that will also be used again him- Fintiri’s seeming affront to the traditional class. And, imposition of candidates including his miserly nature. Ambassador Jameel will be comfortably at home, his good relationship with stakeholders, he is not new in the game and Fintiri losses are his gain
• Fintiri- 32%
• Jameel 68%
Zone 5:
Madagali
Michika
In Michika, it appears the die is cast between Fintiri and many of the PDP critical stakeholders. For example, during the last local council elections- Fintiri couldn’t control Michika. Ideally, Fintiri should have a seamless win in Michika/Madagli, but the stakeholders will do a payback time for him. Fintiri’s Undue Interference with the party politics of the Adamawa North PDP Senatorial ticket will also work against him, Ambassador Jameel will likely get bonus votes from the area, and if he negotiates very well; Fintiri will get not a surprising home defeat, but a shocking one
• Fintiri- 45%
• Jameel – 55
Zone 6
Mubi North LGA
Mubi South LGA
Maiha LGA
Fintiri will have an upper hand in that zone despite its ‘nature’- some factors will help him, but the rumors that he intends to create another chiefdom from the area may likely work against him. People like Alh Yunusa, Madawakin Mubit etc will assist him. For now, pundits will give Fintiri this area’s votes, however, the ripples from the Adamawa North PDP senatorial ticket and the Michika intricacies may affect his fortunes
• Fintiri- 55%
• Jameel- 45%
Zone 7
Song
Hong
Gombi
In this Zone, it will be neck to neck between Fintiri and Ambassador Jameel. In 2019, Hong massively voted for Fintiri despite it having the big office of the SGF from the APC government at the center, but Fintiri has lost the goodwill in that area. Though he has gained some people from the APC but their electoral value is not equivalent to those he lost, like Rufa’i Gombi, etc. Fintiri has the speaker, but Uba Gaya has no government presence, this is another weak point.
• Fintiri- 50%
• Jameel- 50%
One factor has will work against Fintiri is, that those hailing him have no stake in the delegates’ votes, while those with a stake are sitting akimbo waiting for the D-day. Fintiri has an advantageous, but a herculean task of the utilization of his incumbency and the resources at his disposal, but If Ambassador Jameel utilizes his goodwill well, mobilizes his already political structure, and smartly applies his war chest – the game is his.
Final Result from the above Analysis:
• Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri- 48.14%
• Jameel Abubakar Waziri– 51.86%
