Nigeria’s consumer price index (CPI), otherwise known as inflation rate for goods and services, rose to the highest level since May, at 11.28 percent last September, the National Bureau of Statistic (NBS) has said.
The statistics agency, in its latest CPI report published Tuesday in Abuja, said the new rate, a marginal increase of 0.05 percent, rose from 11.23 percent in August, about 0.84 percent rise on a monthly basis.
The CPI measures the average change in prices of goods and services consumed by people for day-to-day living over time.
Amid general increases in prices of goods and services, the latest rise is the second in two successive months after 18 consecutive months of decline, from about 17.78 percent in February 2017 to 11.14 percent in July 2018.
Despite the rising rate, the NBS said core inflation, which actually mirrors the actual inflation for the economy, dropped marginally to about 9.8 percent, from 10 percent.
Commenting on the development, analysts at Cordros Capital forecast a brighter outlook ahead.
In an email to investors, they stated that the current report dovetails into their expectation.
They stated: “In line with our views, inflation sustained uptick for the second consecutive month in September, albeit slower than we and Bloomberg consensus had anticipated.
“Headline CPI inched mildly higher by 6 basis points(bps) to 11.28 percent (slowest increase in 11 month) from 11.23 percent recorded in the prior month. Notably, despite the sharp temperance in the food (-42bps to 1.0 percent month-on-month (m/m) and core baskets (-14bps to 0.64 percent m/m), headline month-on-month number of 0.84 percent (August: 1.05 percent) was enough to drive sustained uptick in headline year-on-year for the review period – further lending credence that base effect has fully dissipated.
“Into the rest of the year, we expect the ongoing main harvest in the North and South to further exert downward pressure on food prices as supplies continue to flood the market. However, we expect the foregoing will be limited by the widespread flooding incidence reported across food producing states.
Elsewhere, in the face of increasing energy prices, we believe the NNPC will remain committed towards strategic supply of petroleum products to steer clear of fuel shortages, with the attendant impact leaving core inflation in check. Hence, we forecast month-on-month headline reading of 0.80% for October, with the corresponding y/y reading of 11.33% (December 2018: 11.52% y/y).”
Tag: Inflation
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Inflation jumped to 11.28% in September – NBS
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Inflation drops to 11.14 per cent in July
…as Food Index Hits 12.85%
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released the headline inflation rate for the month of July 2018.
In its data released on Wednesday morning, the stats office disclosed that the consumer price index (CPI), which measures inflation, moderated to 11.14 percent year-on-year in July from 11.23 percent recorded in June 2018.
This represents 0.09 percent drop in the rate, the 18th consecutive disinflation in headline inflation year-on-year.
The NBS said in its report today that increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yielded the Headline index.
On month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 1.13 percent in July 2018, down by 0.11 percent points from the rate recorded in June 2018 (1.24 percent), representing the first-time month-on-month headline inflation has declined since February 2018.
The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending July 2018 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 13.95 percent, showing 0.42 percent point from 14.37 percent recorded in June 2018.
The urban inflation rate eased by 11.66 percent (year-on-year) in July 2018 from 11.68 percent recorded in June 2018, while the rural inflation rate remained flat at 10.83 percent in July 2018 from 10.83 percent in June 2018.
Furthermore, on a month-on-month basis, the urban index rose by 1.23 percent in July 2018, down by 0.01 from 1.24 percent recorded in June, while the rural index also rose by 1.18 percent in July 2018, down by 0.05 percent from the rate recorded in June 2018 (1.23) percent.
The corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 14.33 percent in July 2018. This is more less 14.71 percent reported in June 2018, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in July 2018 is 13.64 percent compared to 14.08 percent recorded in June 2018.
Also, the NBS said the composite food index eased to 12.85 percent in July 2018 compared with 12.98 percent in June 2018. This represents the tenth consecutive decline in year on year food inflation since September 2017.
This rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of Potatoes, yam and other tubers, Vegetables, Bread and cereals, Fish, Oils and Fat and Fruits.
On month-on-month basis, the food sub-index increased by 1.40 percent in July 2018, down by 0.17 percent points from 1.57 percent recorded in June. This represents the first-time month on month food inflation has declined since February 2018.
The average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending July 2018 over the previous twelve-month average was 17.10 percent, 0.65 percent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in June (17.75) percent.
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Nigeria’s inflation drops to 11.23 % in June – NBS
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) says the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measured inflation for June, decreased to 11.23 per cent (year-on-year) from 11.61 per cent recorded in May.
The NBS disclosed this in its “CPI and inflation Report’’ for June released on Monday in Abuja.
According to the bureau, this figure is 0.37 per cent points less than the rate recorded in May.
The bureau said the figure showed 17 consecutive reductions in inflation rate since January 2017.
The report showed that increases were recorded in all the Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) divisions that yielded the headline index.
On a month-on-month basis, the bureau said the Headline Index increased by 1.24 per cent in June, up by 0.15 per cent points from the rate recorded in May.
According to the report, the percentage changed in the average composite CPI for 12 months period ended June, over the average of CPI for the previous 12 months period.
It, however, measured the CPI at 14.37 per cent in the period under review, showing 0.42 per cent point lower from 14.79 per cent recorded in May.
The report further showed that the urban inflation eased by 11.68 per cent (year-on-year) in June from the 12.08 per cent recorded in May.
The NBS said the rural inflation rate also eased by 10.83 per cent in June from 11.20 per cent in May.
On month-on-month basis, it stated that the urban index rose by 1.24 per cent in June 2018, up by 0.14 from 1.10 per cent recorded in May 2018.
It also noted that the rural index also rose by 1.23 per cent in June 2018, up by 0.15 per cent from the rate recorded in May 2018 (1.08) per cent.
According to the report, the corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index was 14.71 per cent in June 2018.
This, it stated was less than the 15.10 per cent reported in May 2018, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in June 2018 was 14.08 per cent compared to 14.53 per cent recorded in May 2018.
Meanwhile, the NBS noted that the composite food index rose by 12.98 per cent in June (13.45 per cent in May 2018).
The bureau stated that the rise in the food index was caused by increases in prices of potatoes, yam and other tubers.
It stated that the rise was also caused by increase in prices of bread and cereals, fish, oils and fats, milk, cheese and eggs, vegetables and fruits as well as meat.
On a month-on-month basis, it stated that the Food sub-index increased by 1.57 per cent in June 2018, up by 0.24 per cent points, from 1.33 per cent recorded in May 2018.
According to the report, the average annual rate of change of the Food sub-index for the twelve-month period ending June was 17.75 per cent.
This, it stated was down by 0.61 per cent points from the average annual rate of change recorded in May 2018 (18.36) per cent.
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Inflation dropped to 12.48% in April – NBS
The National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday released the Consumer Price Index which measures inflation, with the index dropping from 13.34 per cent in March to 12.48 per cent in April.
The bureau said this in the CPI report, made available to our correspondent in Abuja.
The bureau, in the report, said this was the 15th consecutive months that the inflation rate would be experiencing continuous decline.
The report reads in part, “The Consumer Price Index which measures inflation increased by 12.48 per cent (year-on-year) in April 2018.
“This is 0.86 per cent points less than the rate recorded in March 2018 (13.34) per cent and represents the fifteenth consecutive disinflation since January 2017.
“On a month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 0.83 per cent in April 2018, up by 0.01 per cent points from the rate recorded in March.”
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Inflation rate drops to 13.34% in March – NBS
The National Bureau of Statistics on Thursday said the country’s Consumer Price Index which measures inflation rose by 13.34 per cent (year-on-year) in March 2018.
The bureau in the report said the 13.34 per cent rate for March is 0.99 percentage points less than the 14.33 per cent recorded in February.
The report said this is the fourteenth consecutive months since January 2017 that the country would be experiencing slowdown in inflation.
It reads in part, “The Consumer Price Index which measures inflation increased by 13.34 per cent (year-on-year) in March 2018.
“This fourteenth consecutive disinflation since January 2017 is 0.99 percent points less than the rate recorded in February 2018 (14.33) per cent.
“The Composite Food Index rose by 16.08 per cent (year on year) in March 2018, down from the rate recorded in February (17.59 percent).”
More details later…..
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JUST IN: Inflation drops to 14.33 per cent in February – NBS
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday confirmed the country’s Consumer Price Index which measures inflation rose by 14.33 per cent (year-on-year) in February 2018.
The bureau in the report said the 14.33 per cent rate for February is 0.08 percentage points lower than the 15.3 per cent recorded in January.
The report said this is the thirteenth consecutive months since January 2017 that the country would be experiencing slowdown in inflation.
On a month-on-month basis, the index, according to the NBS report increased by 0.79 per cent in February 2018, down by 0.01 percent points from the rate recorded in January.
It said food Index increased by 17.59 per cent (year-on-year) in February, down by 1.33 percentage points from 18.82 per cent recorded in January 2018.
During the month, the NBS report stated that all major food sub-indexes increased.
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Inflation drops to 15.1 per cent in January – NBS
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Wednesday confirmed that inflation rate, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has further dropped for the 13th consecutive month to 15.13 per cent in January from 15.37 per cent recorded in December, 2017.
The NBS disclosed this in its CPI report for January 2018 released on Wednesday in Abuja.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation, started the year 2018 increasing by 15.13 percent (year-on-year) in January 2018
According to the bureau, this is 0.24 per cent points lower than the rate recorded in December (15.37 per cent).
It stated that the rate recorded made it the twelfth consecutive disinflation (slowdown in the inflation rate though still positive) in headline year-on-year inflation since January 2017.
It, however, stated that increases were recorded in the Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) divisions that yield the Headline Index.
On a month-on-month basis, the report stated that the Headline index increased by 0.80 per cent in January 2018, 0.21 per cent points higher from the rate of 0.59 per cent recorded in December 2017.
The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve-month period ending January 2018 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve-month period was 16.22 per cent.
It stated that the figures showed 0.28 per cent point lower from 16.50 per cent recorded in December 2017.
Meanwhile, it stated that the Urban inflation rate rose by 15.56 per cent (year-on-year) in January 2018 from 16.78 per cent recorded in December 2017.
The report stated that the rural inflation rate also eased by 14.76 per cent in January 2018 from 15.02 per cent in December 2017.
On month-on-month basis, the bureau stated the urban index rose by 0.83 per cent in January 2018, up by 0.17 from 0.66 per cent recorded in December 2017.
It stated that the rural index also rose by 0.77 per cent in January 2018, up by 0.23 per cent when compared with 0.54 per cent in December 2017.
According to the report, the corresponding twelve-month year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 16.55 per cent in January 2018.
It stated that this was less than 16.92 per cent reported in December 2017, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in January 2018 was 15.89 per cent compared to 16.10 per cent recorded in December 2017.
The CPI measures the average change over time in prices of goods and services consumed by people for day- to-day living.
The construction of the CPI combines economic theory, sampling and other statistical techniques using data from other surveys to produce a weighted measure of average price changes in the Nigerian economy.
Key in the construction of the price index is the selection of the market basket of goods and services.
Every month, 10,534 informants spread across the country provide price data for the computation of the CPI and the market items currently comprise of 740 goods and services regularly priced.
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Inflation drops to 15.37 % in December – NBS
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) says inflation rate, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), further dropped to 15.37 per cent in December 2017 from 15.90 per cent recorded in November of the same year.
The NBS disclosed this in its CPI report for December 2017 released on Tuesday in Abuja.
The CPI, which measured inflation, ended the 2017 with a rate of 15.37 per cent (year-on-year) in December 2017.
According to the bureau, this is 0.53 per cent points lower than the rate recorded in November.
The report stated that it became 11th consecutive disinflation (slowdown in the inflation rate though still positive) in headline year -on- year inflation since January 2017.
According to the report, increases have been recorded in all the Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) divisions that yield the Headline Index.
On a month-on-month basis, the bureau stated that the Headline Index increased by 0.59 per cent in December 2017, 0.19 per cent points higher from the rate of 0.78 per cent recorded in November.
It stated that the percentage changed in the average composite CPI for the 12 months period ending in December 2017 over the average of the CPI for the previous 12 months period.
The NBS stated that the percentage of average composite CPI was 16.50 per cent in the month, showing 0.26 per cent points lower from 16.76 per cent recorded in November 2017.
Meanwhile, the report stated that the Urban Inflation Rate rose by 15.78 per cent (year-on-year) in December from 16.27 per cent recorded in November.
It, however, stated that the rural inflation rate also eased by 15.02 per cent in December from 15.59 per cent in November.
On month-on-month basis, the report stated that the urban index rose by 0.66 per cent in December, down by 0.19 from 0.85 per cent recorded in November.
It also stated that the rural index rose by 0.54 per cent in December, down by 0.18 per cent when compared with 0.72 per cent in November.
According to the report, the corresponding 12 months year-on-year average percentage change for the urban index is 16.92 per cent in December.
This, it stated, was less than 17.26 per cent reported in November 2017, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in December is 16.10 per cent compared to 16.29 per cent recorded in November 2017.
(NAN)
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Egina Project: Total Nigeria denies inflating costs, says ‘initial budget was $16bn’
…says project will be completed in the fourth quarter of 2018
Total Nigeria’s management has said that it will complete the Egina field development project with an initial budget provision of $16 billion by the fourth quarter of 2018.
TheNewsGuru.com reports that the Senate had on Tuesday commenced a probe into the controversy surrounding the alleged increase in the estimated cost of the project from $6bn to $16bn.
Chairman of the Senate committee on Local Content, Senator Olamilekan Adeola along with some 18 others sponsored the motion for the probe.
According to the Senator, “At inception, the project was estimated to cost 6 billion dollars but has undergone various cost variations that currently put its cost at over 16. 352 billion dollars.
However, in a swift reaction, Total Nigeria in a statement sent to the TheNewsGuru.com said the project was initially budget to cost $16bn and was never inflated.
Read statement below:
The Egina field was discovered by Total Upstream Nigeria Limited (TUPNI) in 2003 within the Oil Mining Licence 130 (OML130), some 200 kilometres south of Port Harcourt, Nigeria. The field is being developed by Total Upstream Nigeria Ltd in partnership with NNPC, CNOOC, SAPETRO and PETROBRAS. It will add 200,000 barrels per day to Nigeria’s oil production (approximately 10% of the country’s total oil production).
Egina is the largest investment project currently on-going in the oil and gas sector in Nigeria. The overall progress of the project stands at 88% and a key milestone was achieved on October 31st, 2017 as the Floating, Production, Storage and Offloading unit (FPSO) started its journey to Nigeria. The project is expected to be completed in Q4 – 2018, within the initial budget of 16 Billion USD.
Being the first major deepwater development project launched after the enactment of the Nigerian Oil & Gas Industry Content Development (NOGICD) Act of 2010, Egina has the highest level of local content of any such project in Nigeria.
As operator of the Egina project, Total Upstream Nigeria Ltd fully identifies with the Government aspirations for Nigerian Content and has been working closely with the Nigerian Content Development Monitoring Board (NCDMB) and Nigeria National Petroleum Company (NNPC) to maximize Nigerian Content on the project.
Key Nigerian Content features of the Egina project include:
- Employment: 24 million man-hours worked in Nigeria (77% of total project workload), equivalent to a workforce of 3,000 persons on average over a period of 5 years;
- Fabrication: 60,000 tons of equipment to be fabricated in Nigeria;
- Training: over 560,000 man-hours of human capacity development training across Egina contracts;
- Infrastructure: construction of several large-scale new fabrication facilities in Nigeria and upgrade of several existing fabrication yards.
The Egina project includes pioneering Nigerian Content achievements:
- The Floating, Production, Storage and Offloading unit (FPSO) of Egina, a 330-meter long vessel designed to process oil and gas from the Egina field, will be berthed at the quayside in Nigeria for integration of locally fabricated modules – a first for Nigeria;
- Egina has the highest number of FPSO topside modules (six) to be fully fabricated and integrated in Nigeria;
- The assembly of the Integrated Control and Safety System of the FPSO was fully performed in Nigeria;
- Egina includes the fabrication of the largest subsea equipment (manifolds, risers) ever completed in Nigeria, far above what was achieved in previous projects.
The Egina project is testimony to the fact that large deepwater projects can be developed with a very high level of in-country activities, thus fulfilling the aspirations and objectives of the Federal Government of Nigeria in terms of employment generation, capacity building and industrial capability development.
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Inflation drops by 15 per cent in 11 months – Emefiele
Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr. Godwin Emefiele on Thursday confirmed that inflation rate declined by about 15 per cent over the past 11 months as fiscal and monetary reforms continue to impact positively on the Nigerian economy.
Emefiele revealed this while delivering the 47th Convocation Lecture of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, (UNN) entitled “A Mindset for Succeeding in Today’s Nigeria.”
He pointed out that inflation had declined from a peak of 18.7 per cent in January 2017 to 15.9 per cent in November.
The apex bank chief lauded the improvements in the macro economy noting that the Gross Domestic Products (GDP) recovered after five quarters of continuous contraction, recording positive growth of 0.7 per cent and 1.4 per cent respectively in second and third quarters of 2017.
He added that the exchange rate has appreciated significantly from N525/$1 in February 2017 to about N360/$1 now, tapering premium across various windows and segments of the market.
“Foreign exchange supply has improved since the establishment of the Investors & Exporters Window, with autonomous inflows of over $10 billion through this window alone from April 2017 to date. Foreign Exchange Reserve has recovered significantly from a low of just over $23 billion in October 2016 to about $35.2 billion by November 27, 2017,” Emefiele said.
He pointed out that the World Bank’s “Doing Business Indicators” for 2018 indicated improvement in Nigerian macro economy as Nigeria rose by 24 places to rank 145 out of 190 countries.
According to him, there has been a significant boost in local production, which is due to CBN’s development finance efforts and the dogged implementation of its foreign exchange policies.
“Today many local manufacturers are reporting major boosts to their revenue and profit,” Emefiele said.
Emefiele said that the growing Nigerian population presents additional opportunities for economic empowerment for Nigerians.
He noted that Nigeria is now estimated to have a population of over 180 million people and this population is predicted by the United Nations to grow to 398 million people in 2050, which would make Nigeria, the third largest in the world by that time.
According to him, the population trend presents a significant opportunity for Nigerian graduates to turn whatever challenge they may be facing into opportunities that can harness these demographic shifts.
“Imagine what would happen if Nigeria and Nigerians cannot provide food, shelter, clothing, health, education, and other basic things for this teeming population. Even though these trends should already begin to bother current leaders in our country today, I believe that young Nigerians can begin today to see these trends as opportunities and think of what they can do take advantage of the situation,” Emefiele said.