By Mideno Bayagbon
Email: mideno@thenewsguru.ng
The Urhobos, who say it is their turn to produce the next governor of Delta state, are apparently not sitting on their oars.
Through a group, Delta Central 23 (DC-23), they formed and made Chief Ighoyota Amori its national chairman, they have been going all over the state on sensitisation, mobilisation and selling of the idea of a Delta State Governor of Urhobo extraction to all.
All the major candidates who are Urhobo men (no woman so far), are members and all, we are told, are agreed that whoever emerges the candidate at the end of the day will be fully supported by the rest.
The campaign, the group is selling to all is: it is the turn of Delta Central to produce the governor of the state: Its only fair and equitable, a fitting reciprocity of Delta Central’s magnanimity in 2007 by allowing the rotation principle despite their overwhelming majority.
Given Delta Central’s humongous voting power and their owning more than 60 percent of the population figure in Delta state, it is ordinarily a given that this senatorial zone can produce a governor with little assistance of other zones if it so chooses.
But the reality on ground is that this is Nigeria and abracadabra politics reigns.
Like the situation, nationally where the north controls the deciding votes that do not reflect the reality of geography and ecology, hamlets in riverine communities return magical figures.
The four or so riverine local government areas of the state have in times past posted voting figures that even the most imaginative magician cannot conjure: figures that unbelievably almost doubled the entire votes of the Urhobos.
In a general election, therefore, whoever controls access to the rivers and riverine votes becomes the go to person. It is perhaps based on this that Delta Central has been threading carefully by attempting to carry everybody along in its quest to produce the governor of the state come 2023 general elections.
Our attempt today is to look at the plethora of aspirants who are currently trying to sell themselves to their parties as the ones who should be considered as the candidates, the flag bearer of their parties.
Our emphasis, however, in this analysis today will focus on only the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. In no particular order, we will discuss the aspirants and their chances.
At the end, there will be pointers as to who, if the primaries of the PDP were to hold today will be the top three aspirants.
OLOROGUN KENNETH GBAGI
The first to throw his hat into the ring is Olorogun Kenneth Gbagi, a serial contestant for the position since 1999.
He prides himself as a former minister of state for education under President Goodluck Jonathan, during the interim government.
He was minister for six months but failed to be reappointed when President Jonathan was formally elected in 2011.
To his credit, nevertheless, within the six months he was minister, he was able to get approval for a federal government secondary school to be located near his hometown, Oginibo.
He also secured and set in motion a N100 million renovation of Urhobo College in Effurun, near Warri.
He describes himself as an industrialist but he is more known for his Robinson Plaza shopping Plaza complex and for his hotel at PTI junction, Effurun.
He also describes himself as a criminologist and lawyer. To his credit, he has tried his hands at various enterprises around the Warri-Effurun axis most of which are moribund; like the now abandoned, former Great Ogboru owned warehouses as you drive out of Effurun to Sapele, which Chief Gbagi tried to turn into a water factory and failed, amidst other ventures.
Born poor, he came into wealth at a very young age, before he was 30 from a source most people are not privy.
Among his supporters, there is the feeling that his flaunted association with former President Olusegun Obasanjo and General Ibrahim Babangida will swing the ticket to him.
Whether the three contending groups in Delta PDP can be ordered by these leaders, outside Delta state, is something not open to debate.
In the run up primaries to the 2015 governorship election held in Asaba, in which he also contested, Olorogun Gbagi scored only two votes.
He perhaps has learnt from his previous experiences and is determined this time to make a good show at it.
He is today the most visible, in the media; the one who has consulted with the leaders and potential delegates the most.
Nevertheless, against him are the fact that he is lone ranger, tolerated by some of the leaders in the state but not completely trusted by them.
He is said to be stingy. But more damaging to his campaign is the incidence at his hotel where he paraded some of his workers naked, including a pregnant married woman, who he accused of stealing from him; and posting their naked photos on the internet.
Civil society organisations and women groups have since dragged him to court over this.
Though the hoopla which greeted this and his being declared wanted by the `police in Delta state have all but died down, this incidence and the fact that he is accused too of refusing to pay his workers their due, always, may further dent his chances among the general populace who before now, some say, view his ambition with suspicion.
OLOROGUN DAVID EDEVBIE
Olorogun David Edevbie, a strong ally and indeed, the rumoured candidate of Chief Ibori himself, ordinarily should have been the front runner for Okowa’s seat.
Of all those in the race today, he is the one with the most pedigree in governance and management. He has been an active participant in the corridors of power in the last 21 years.
He was brought into active politics by James Ibori when he was governor of the state. He was recruited from the United Kingdom where he worked as an investment banker or so.
For eight years or so, he was the commissioner for finance, a position that made him very powerful as the chief dispenser of the favours which Ibori allegedly doled out to his supporters. He decided who got what and when. He was then seemingly apolitical and behaved almost like an expatriate. But he had the full confidence of the governor who protected him from all the political hawks.
He was thereafter the private secretary to the late President Musa Yar’Adua and was until recently the Chief of Staff to Governor Okowa. He is the kind of candidate, where he from Lagos state, could have easily gotten the nod to run for the office.
Not a few hated his guts and most politicians in the state are quick to say that he is a very arrogant fellow. But all that seems to have changed as some of those who used to hate his guts are today seen associating with him and promoting his aspiration.
His absence from the state for sometime at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic was at first interpreted as a subtle withdrawal from the race only for him to launch a forceful comeback which has catapulted him to the top ranks of the aspirants.
Nevertheless, unconfirmed reports from various sources among the Ijaws, indicate that the Ijaws would rather do anti party voting than vote for him.
His offence is not clear but some senior Ijaw politicians who spoke with Africa’s fastest rising online news platform, TheNewsGuru.com (TNG), appear serious.
A senior political leader also confided that there is a lot of pressure on Chief Ibori, whether out of envy or the fear that an Edevbie government would not be a government as usual, open to looting, to reconsider backing him.
To close observers, however, should Ibori withhold support for him, his political ambition, will come crashing. This is because most of those who support him now, his opponents claim, do so on the impression that he is Ibori’s anointed candidate. Be that as it may, David Edevbie is one of the front runners.
THE GOLDEN BOY
James Ojadovba Augoye is surprisingly not a surprising front runner for the candidacy of the People Democratic Party ticket.
His anointing dates as far back as when the permutations and calculations for a possible successor to Senator Okowa began in the compromises and horse trading which solidified Okowa’s ascendency as governor of Delta in 2015. The trick was, he shared political sonship with Ifeanyi Okowa.
Recall, that it was former Information Minister, Professor Sam Oyovbaire, who spearheaded the acceptance of Governor Okowa in Delta Central and indeed took on the task of selling him to the voting Delta state populace in the 2014-2015 pre election season almost against the grain in the then ruling party. That was how Professor Oyovbaire became the governor’s godfather.
James Augoye was Oyovbaire right hand man, his man Friday who worked tirelessly to ensure that the votes turn out for Okowa especially in the two Okpe local government areas.
He was fittingly rewarded with the juicy commissionership of the ministry of works. To his credit, and the acclaim of some, he discharged the office well and most credit him with being the brain behind the attempt to fix roads in the state.
In fact, his supporters trumpet him as deputy road master! They say that if Governor Okowa today claims to be the road master, then his works commissioner who did the actual work should take most of the credit. In effect, they say that Augoye is a fit and competent loyalist to take over from Okowa.
Governor Okowa, insiders have noted, was favourably disposed to an Augoye candidacy. For three reasons: he was considered a loyalist, he had showcased his competency and then there is the promises and seeming agreement with Professor Oyovbaire to have a say in who succeeds him as governor.
But that was before the bubble burst. Okowa’s ruffling of the PDP rotation agreement in the state had set him against his perceived godfather, Professor Oyovbaire and all the Urhobo leaders who had supported him to become governor.
Augoye had chosen to align his loyalty to his godfather and Governor Okowa was said to have been displeased. Insiders say that Okowa who demands loyalty of his aides was so peeved he started questioning why he should give his nod to Augoye. This kickstarted the interesting political times enveloping the state now.
Unperturbed, Augoye, considered humbled, shrewd and politically astute has wormed his way into not just the Ibori group but indeed to most of the political leaders in PDP. Ask anyone of them, and Augoye’s name is either the first or the second they mention when assessing the aspirants for the post.
Not many wonder: where did this James Augoye man emerge from? His political antecedents are humble. He rose from being a Councillor, to becoming an interim council chairman before Okowa’s emergence propelled him to state politics and political appointment.
Augoye also has ethnic sentiments working in his favour. The Okpes who are the largest sub-ethnic group in Urhobo, and who occupy two distinct local government areas: Okpe and Sapele, are of the view that it is their turn to produce the governor of the state given that they have never produced any governor since the creation of the state while all the other ethnic sub-groups have each have their sons occupy the office.
The campaign has been on going and there seems to be an understanding that the Okpes have a case. So far, unlike the other sub groups who have two or more aspirants contesting for the post, Augoye is the only Okpe in the race.
JAMES MANAGER
All are agreed that Senator James Manager is an astute politician with good grassroots support especially in the Delta South Senatorial zone which comprises the Ijaws, the Itsekiris and the Isokos.
He was a foundation works commissioner under Chief James Ibori who he partnered with from their Grassroots Democratic Movement, GDM days. He was “bribed” with a senatorial seat when Dr Emmanuel Uduaghan, from the same senatorial seat became the favourite for the post of Governor post Ibori, a post he has held in four consecutive elections.
Maternally of the Isoko ethnic group, one of the tripod that holds the Delta South Senatorial district, Manager has somehow, against the zoning arrangement in the state emerged one of the front runners for the party’s flag.
As stated in our last article, were he to wait till it is the perceived turn of Delta South senatorial zone before aspiring for the position, he would already be in his 70s, a time he would be considered too old to vie for the office.
KINGSLEY BURUTU OTUARO
He is the sitting deputy governor of the state. He too is of the Ijaw ethnic group. At 53 years, he is one of the youngest aspirants who have shown interest in succeeding his boss, Ifeanyi Okowa.
He is a past Special Assistant to James Ibori, a two time former commissioner representing the Ijaw ethnic group on the DESOPADEC board. His Excellency has been in the corridors of power since the Ibori government days.
A lawyer and masters degree holder in Peace and Conflict Studies, he has emerged as one of the top five contenders for the position.
It is hard to say now if Governor Okowa who was backed by the Tompolo and the various Ijaw groups and reaped their magical votes massively will throw his weight behind his deputy.
But some say that having taken a stance for a level playing field for all the zones, Okowa would be hard put to chest out for his deputy. This is especially so given the unstated threat that should Okowa force his way through with a candidate that is not of Urhobo ethnic group, the Urhobos can punish him and the PDP and vote for whoever the APC candidate turns out to be.
BARRISTER FRED MAJEMITE
A two time commissioner in Delta state, a robust, active politician and lawyer, Fred Majemite is pursing his ambition to succeed Governor Okowa purposefully and calculatedly.
He has met and consulted with almost all the political leaders of the party. He is traversing the state and trying to build a solid political base to propel him into the pole position for the flag of the PDP.
Its a herculean task, but he does not seem to be deterred by the seeming anointing which Edevbie and Augoye appear to enjoy.
OVIE AGAS
The rumour in town, of recent is that Governor Okowa is beginning to look the way of his former Secretary to Government, Chief Ovie Agas.
In the rat race for positioning and alignment, a shift is beginning to appear. The rumoured romance of Ovie Agas by Governor Okowa has introduced a new frenzy among political jobbers.
The idea being that whoever Governor Okowa supports will immediately be pivoted to the top three position among the aspirants.
WATCH OUT: Three names are also on the lips of some political observers in the state. The first of this, is Chief Kenneth Okpara, a former commissioner for finance under Dr Emmanuel Uduaghan who is a former world bank officer.
Brought into politics by Dr Uduaghan, he has been approached by some PDP chieftains and has been persuaded to enter the race by some of the top politicians in the state. Though facing a personal challenge, Chief Okpara might likely become more visible on the campaign trail from January next year.
Political pundits are also interestingly looking in the direction of Olorogun Emmanuel Aguariavwodo, a one time House of Representative Member, a former Managing Director of the NDDC and a former Senator and two term adviser to Governor Ifeanyi Okowa.
As with almost all things with him, pundits say they won’t be surprised if the God factor which usually works in his favour throws him into the top contender rung of the crowded field of PDP aspirants soon. Could he be the joker Okowa is holding to his chest?
The third person seemingly on the radar is the effervescent Jaro Egbo, a former adviser to Ibe Kachukwu when he was junior Petroleum Minister; a current adviser to the interim administrator of the NDDC and a former candidate for the house of assembly elections of Delta State.
So who does the cap fit? it is still morning yet on the campaign trail but Edevbie, Augoye and Manager currently seem to be head and shoulders above the rest.
Nevertheless, whoever finally emerges will depend on the political relationship management between the Ibori and Okowa groups on the one hand and Okowa and Professor Oyovbaire on the other.
TNG reports 
No doubt, Delta State politics is in a state of high flux. While the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is calculating it’s options on how to retain the State, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is painfully searching for a balance to wrest the State from the PDP.