By Mideno Bayagbon
As at the last count, no woman has expressed intention to be president of Nigeria come 2019. It is still a man’s world. So far, nine men are known to be eyeing the seat of the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, in 2019.The field is still open though for more to come seeking their parties’ nomination for the race proper.And largely too some of these ambitions are laced with bareface intrigues,implicitly running with the hare and hunting with hound.
ATIKU ABUBAKAR:
Top of the list as at today is former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, who has been in the wings, fuelling his ambition to be Nigeria’s president. Considered to be one of the most prepared to be president, Atiku Abubakar is perhaps the only one among the top eight contenders who has a ready blueprint, who has been in the saddle, who has a wide network of political allies, funding ability, and other prerequisites working for him. A little confession: I was a member of a think tank he set up more than 10 years ago to design a cross sectoral roadmap on how to jump start the Nigerian economy and polity. Each sector of Nigeria’s political economy had experts sit down and design strategic thrusts. At the end of the exercise, if he had become president in 2007, Atiku Abubakar, a man who specialises in tapping the best brains to man specific duties, would have hit the ground running from day one.
But his perceived impatience in the years leading to the 2003 re-election of former president Olusegun Obasanjo, to whom he was deputy, has been his major undoing. Recall that but for the deft strategic, and some say, cunning military strategies deployed by the former military leader, Obasanjo, Atiku Abubakar would have easily supplanted his boss. The former Vice President had successfully sold what he called the Mandela option, in which he wanted President Obasanjo to do just a term and hand over to him, to most Governors of the day. The war of attrition that followed has left seemingly indelible bruises from which the Adamawa political chieftain has yet to recover.
A mountain called Olusegun Obasanjo has been Atiku’s albatross. So has been the smear campaign which painted him as a very corrupt politician, a stigma that has stuck to him despite no indictment, or corruption charges never been brought against him in any Nigerian court. There are, however, indications that the United States government has a dossier on him, allegedly supplied by the EFCC under Ribadu, then working for Obasanjo. Infact, one of Atiku’s wives, Jennifer, had to relocate from the US to Dubai in the heat of the investigations on Atiku. I am unable to confirm if the US has ever since then granted the former vice president an entry visa.
He has been a political orphan more or less since then. For a man who inherited the awesome Shehu Musa Yar’Adua political machinery, a man deeply connected and seemingly liked nationwide, his baggage is daunting; and his seeming political prostitution, of changing political base ever so often, are major obstacles which stand against his ambition to be the candidate of the PDP in the coming elections.
AMINU TAMBUWAL:
A deeply ambitious man ready to break every necessary egg to make his political omelette, Aminu Tambuwal first climbed the national political limelight when he schemed, successfully, against his then political party, PDP, under whose auspices he aspired and got elected to the House of Representatives. Along with Emeka Ihedioha, they successfully imposed themselves as Speaker and Deputy Speaker against their party nominated South West candidate, Mulikat Akande. In the peculiar PDP zoning formula, the Southwest was to produce the Speaker of the House, the north, Senate President; while Jonathan reigned as president. Geared on by disgruntled political leaders in the north and through alliance with opposition members in the house, and adroitly with the Jagaban of Southwest politics, Bola Tinubu, who was then also building himself as the new leader of the southwest, and of opposition, they rubbished Jonathan, painting him as an ineffectual president, a tag he never lived down until he was defeated by Buhari in 2015.
Seen then as the embodiment of the north’s angst against Jonathan, who they never wanted to succeed the demised President Umaru Yar’Adua, it was not a surprise that he was one of the arrowheads of the rebels who dumped the PDP for APC.
Cunning, amiable, humble and very strategic, Tambuwal has been plotting a presidential dream for the past eight years. To his credit, he had wanted to contest for the presidency in 2015 but was prevailed upon by political leaders in the north to tamper his ambition and allow the then very popular Muhammadu Buhari to give the north the opportunity of wrestling back the presidency. He grudgingly accepted the offer to be governor of Sokoto. He, however, didn’t drop his ambition.
That is why it was no surprise that though he won election as an APC governor, he formed an early alliance with PDP’s Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State with an eye on a presidential run in 2019. It has been clear to him that with Buhari in the saddle as president, he stands no chance in the APC of getting the presidential ticket for the 2019 race. So he became amoebic: APC by day, and PDP by night. He is the major candidate of the Nyesom Wike wing of the PDP: a major force that installed the party chairman, Uche Secondus. That Tambuwal has not defected to the PDP openly is another of his strategic but calculated moves. His camp has adopted the “wait and see” attitude before taking a plunge for the PDP. They are waiting to see what will become of the heavy pressure on President Buhari not to re-contest the presidency. Will Buhari bow? The Tambuwal group believes strongly that he stands a good chance of succeeding Buhari, should that happen. So they wait.
EL RUFAI:
Also waiting in the wings is Kaduna State governor, Nasir El Rufai. No one’s ambition to succeed President Buhari is as secretly open as that of Governor El Rufai. But he pretends to being an ostrich, with head seemingly heavily buried in the sand in the quest to make President Buhari not just to contest but win the presidential race in 2019. Observers believe El Rufai is being clever by a half. True, he will be one of the major inheritors should Buhari decides not to re-contest the presidency. Deep down, El Rufai is also preparing, just incase. For him, like Tambuwal, Buhari not contesting for a second term is his best chance for the presidency. For with the peculiarities of our politics, should Buhari win the 2019 elections, that will effectively delay his and Tambuwal’s aspiration by between eight to sixteen years.
El Rufai’s presidential ambition predates Tambuwal’s. In league with Ribadu, they almost railroaded then President Obasanjo into handing the presidential ticket to him for the 2007 elections. In a bid to actualise this aim, El Rufai and Ribadu connived to destroy the ambitions of most of the contenders and clear favourites for the presidency in Obasanjos second term. They easily put paid to the aspirations of Dr Peter Odili, Donald Duke, Atiku Abubakar and a host of others. In his widely acknowledged book: The Accidental Public Servant, El Rufai did not hide his disappointment at not being handed the presidency by Obasanjo whom he had typically pandered to in hope of taking over from him. Watching him now, it appears he has adopted the same tactics as a similar scenario is playing out.Nevertheless, he has the uphill task of managing his mindset and his nonpolitical temperament . His suspension by a faction of the Kaduna State APC, demolition of the faction’s secretariat and disposition to the Southern Kaduna affair are in view.
BUKOLA SARAKI
The senate president has never hidden his desire to vie for the presidency of the country. Troubled on all sides in the APC, most observers believe it is only a matter of time before he dumps the APC and likely jump ship to the PDP from whence he came.
Stubborn, strategic and wealthy, the current “owner’ of Kwara politics has his eyes firmly on contesting the presidency. His ambition is buoyed by the fact that despite all efforts to remove him from the exalted senate presidency which he virtually hijacked for himself, he has remained unshaken.
The only drawback is that most of his allies with whom he crossed over to the APC, especially people like Rotimi Amaechi with whom he used to enjoy the best of chummy relationships, have since abandoned him, preferring to anchor their political fate on President Muhammadu Buhari.
On the counter, however, a majority of senators still stand behind him.
This is a clear indication, observers say, that should he throw his hat into the ring, his campaign will be one of the most formidable. This perhaps explains why the powers that be are using all available arsenals at their disposal to try to cage him, though unsuccessfully till date. But whether he will survive all the court cases ranged against him is yet to be determined.
SULE LAMIDO
Former foreign minister and governor, Sule Lamido, is seen as one of the brightest hopes of the north to ascend the presidency. He is also an Obasanjo protege. Indeed, he is one of the three main contenders being positioned by the Obasanjo Group to tackle President Buhari in next year’s election. Tall, urbane and well spoken of, Sule Lamido, one of the original conspirators against President Goodluck Jonathan, but refused to go along with the five other governors to join the APC, preferring to remain in the PDP. A man of the people, schooled in the talakawa politics of the late legend, Alhaji Aminu Kano, he is very popular in Kano where he resides.
Lamido while opening his presidential Campaign office in Birnin kudu area of Jigawa recently vowed: “There is no soul on earth that can stop the will of Allah if He desired that I should be President of this country no matter the intimidation or harassment through court persecution, I shall certainly be.” This is apparently in response to the fact the Buhari government has been relentless in a tussle of sorts with him. In fact, the EFCC has been on his neck charging him and his two children to court on corruption charges.
RABIU MUSA KWANKWASO:
Two term governor of Kano State, former defence minister and now senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, almost beat the then General Muhammadu Buhari for the APC presidential ticket during the primaries. With a strong base in Kano and friends across the country, Kwankwaso is in the hustling to be the presidential candidate of either the PDP or APC in the coming presidential elections. Nevertheless, the same forces which thwarted his ambition in 2014 have enlarged and gathered more muscles. More than just his old friend, Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi and Ahmed Bola Tinubu who had to use all within their power to sway delegates who Kwankwaso had mobilised to ensure his victory, from their charted path, he faces a more formidable opponents today.
A taste of that has been his lot since he lost the ticket. His protege and former deputy now governor of Kano State, has fully become his most unbelievable traducer! He is making Kwankwaso’s home base his most trident opposition. The Kwankwasiya political machinery which Kwankwaso built to horn his political ambition is today in tatters, no thanks to the unseen hands of Aso Rock. Unforgiving and still seething with anger, Aso Rock has done all within the power circle there to decimate the Kwankwaso political empire.
As I noted elsewhere, the fear of a Kwankwaso’s presidential bid sends jitters down the spine of the Buhari inner caucus team. It is this same team close to Aso Rock, who accuse him of disloyalty and of not cooperating with the Buhari administration since he was defeated at the Teslim Balogun stadium in Lagos during the APC primaries. This is the same team that has fomented trouble for him with the party structure and even in his home state, Kano. They have not forgotten that but for the war chest raised by Bola Tinubu and Rotimi Amaechi, Kwankwaso could have easily defeated Buhari for the candidacy.
But that is also a plus for Kwankwaso, it has made him one of the courted brides in some groups that want to see the end of the seemingly ineffectual Buhari regime. Already, in the PDP, in the Obasanjo instigated group and in National Intervention Movement, he enjoys some level of support.
IBRAHIM HASSAN DANKWAMBO
Former Accountant General of the Federation and current governor of Gombe State, the youthful Ibrahim Dankwambo is perhaps the aspirant with the longest hold on the top echelon of the People Democratic Party. To his credit, controversial preacher and Catholic priest, founder of the adoration ministry, the Rev Fr. Mbaka is perhaps the first person to give public voice to the aspiration of the two term governor. The Catholic priest early in the year, while lambasting the Buhari regime, claimed that God has anointed the Gombe governor as possibly the next president of Nigeria. Speaking glowingly of his achievements in Gombe, the radical Catholic Reverend Father asked Nigerians to look towards Dankwambo for the next leadership of the country. But a coalition of Gombe State indigenes soon came out to laugh at the claim that Dankwambo has performed near magic in the development of the Gombe state. Led by Jibrin Muhammed, the coalition said Dankwambo’s regime has been an unmitigated disaster and hence he is unfit to govern Nigeria.
Nevertheless, Alhaji Dankwambo, from close watch of his activities in the past three years, has never stopped canvassing support for his ambition across the country. Infact, apart from Fayose and Nyesom Wike, he was one of the pillars of the PDP during its troubling factional days. But insiders in the party are not too happy with what some of them consider the accountant’s tightfistedness. He is said not to have contributed much to the funding and running off the party,hence they consider his ambition as out of place. Not relenting, he his hoping on the support of his fellow PDP governors to see his ambition through.
AHMED MAIKAIFI, erstwhile interim chairman of the PDP is perhaps the leading aspirant in the party today. PDP chieftains spoken to believe that the former governor utilised his tenure as interim chairman of the party to mobilise a large following behind his desire to be candidate of the PDP in the 2019 presidential elections. He is said to be the candidate to beat in the party. The only seeming obstacle to his ambition appears to be the Wike led group who are actively working for the aspiration of the Sokoto State governor, Tambuwal. His health is also a cause of concern.
Though it is too early now to give an assertive assessment of the strengths of each of these aspirants and who will likely emerge to contest against President Buhari, it is nevertheless clear that as the days go by, eruptions and implosions will be the order of the day in the two main parties. Obasanjo inspired Third Force and all the other emerging political tendencies will eventually strengthen some of these candidates, while most of them will kiss the dust.
![[Video] Drama in NASS as Melaye, Kwankwaso, 13 other senators Defect to PDP](https://thenewsguru.ng/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/ImageFile-10.jpg)