TheNewsGuru

Tag: Magnus Onyibe

  • Skullduggery as OBJ claims moral authority, writes letter to youth – By Magnus Onyibe

    Skullduggery as OBJ claims moral authority, writes letter to youth – By Magnus Onyibe

    Former president, general ( chief ) Olusegun Obasanjo,OBJ inadvertently revealed his agenda or motive for endorsing mr Peter Obi when he wrote in his 1st January sensational letter to Nigerian youth goading them to vote for Mr Peter Obi as president on 25 February this year. Referring to Mr Peter Obi, he wrote: “In other words,he has people who can pull his ears, if and when necessary.”

    Unfortunately,he forgot that when he thought he could ‘pull the ears’ of Umaru Yar’dua of blessed memory,he failed to realize that Yar’adua was not ready to be his stooge or lackey.

    Hence the president that succeeded him in office in 2007 promptly reversed most of the policies that Baba OBJ had introduced.Chief amongst them is the reversal of the reform policies for the unbundling of the electricity generation and distribution,as well as petroleum drilling,refining and distribution sectors that had been under the management of government,resulting in sub optimal output.

    It is on record that the refineries that had been sold to Dangote Group etc under Baba OBJ/ Wazirin Atiku Abubakar, AA regime were taken back and the billions of dollars spent in acquiring assets to boost electricity supply in our country was wasted as the equipment imported to enable the scaling up of its supply was left to rot away in the seaports when Yar’dua took over as president.The perfidy stated above were the subject of Ndudi Elumelu led committee of the House of Representatives,which delved into the issues surrounding the investments by OBJ regime totaling $16 billion during Umaru Yar,adua/ Goodluck Jonathan regimes between 2007 and 2011.

    In the light of the above,the concept of supporting a candidate so that he/she can be a lackey to do an outgoing president’s bidding has never been an efficacious strategy.

    Which is why l expected that Baba OBJ would not be susceptible to such at this point in time and should have been immune with his level of experience in the leadership of our beloved country.

    How can we also forget that Baba OBJ also lost out with president Goodluck Jonathan whom he had also backed to step up from vice president into a substantive president after President Yar’dua passed away as a serving president in 2010 and there was a leadership lacuna in Aso Rock Villa.

    To get his pound of flesh after what he perceived to be a let down by Yar’adua soon after his ascension to power,Baba OBJ had pushed for his replacement with Jonathan after his passage.That was when in the spirit of presidential power rotation between the south and north,politicians from the north had started clamoring for Yar’adua’s replacement with someone of their own ethnic stock,simply because it was their turn,as Yar’adua was yet to complete his tenure before his sudden demise two (2) years into his first tenure.

    In 2011,Jonathan succeeded in getting re-elected,but it didn’t take long for him as president to seek to detach himself from what was deemed as an over bearing influence of Baba OBJ who had stomped for him to become president as he is currently doing for Obi.

    So,my suspicion is that Baba OBJ is still seeking ways to enjoy the 3rd term that he failed to get legitimately when his term was up in 2007 and he attempted to tweak with the constitution that limits tenure to two terms of eight (8) years and four (4) years per term to accommodate his apparently vaulting ambition.

    The truth is that if and when Wazirin Atiku Abubakar,AA becomes president in 2023, he will be coming back to continue where he stopped when he served as vice president to OBJ,and was in charge of the privatization council.In the likely event that it so happens,petrol scarcity now tormenting Nigerians will be a thing of the past and epileptic electricity supply would also be history, just as he made it possible for Nigeria and Nigerians in October 2001 to witness revolution in the telecoms sector,which we are all currently enjoying because he had the opportunity to start the process and complete it over twenty one (21) years ago.

    But,out of spite,OBJ stripped AA of the duty of masterminding the telecommunications revolution.lt is a decision that was a malicious fall out of the events leading to his (Baba OBJ’s) re-election in 2003.

    In fact,l am of the conviction that if AA had enough time to complete the process of privatizing the electricity power and petroleum refining and distribution sectors while he was chairman of the privatization council,Nigeria would not be in darkness today and a whopping N6 trillion naira ( some would argue in excess of N15 trillion since 2015) would not have been spent on subsidizing petrol pump price instead of subsidizing education in 2022 national budget.

    In the highly caustic letter penned by Baba OBJ released on new year day,he admonished politicians not to make elections a do-or-die affair.

    How hypocritical!

    Nigerians can’t forget that it was baba OBJ that stated in the run up to election that ushered in his successor Umaru Yar’adua in 2007 that election is a do-or die-affair.

    Nevertheless,it is heartening that after leaving office he has realized that it’s better that democracy is practiced without the autocratic elements that marked his eight (8) years reign as a democratically elected president (1999-2007).

    That is keeping in mind the atrocities committed by the military against civilians under his watch in Odi Bayelsa state where 900 people were killed in November 1999 for allegedly murdering some police men sent to keep the peace and about 200 lives were also snuffed out in Zaki-Biam in Benue state in the month of October 2001 as reprisal action against the alleged abduction of 19 soldiers who are members of Nigerian army.

    Given the abhorrent records above,it is difficult for democracy watchers in Nigeria not to suspect that Baba OBJ’s motive for endorsing Obi and Labor Party,LP are not altruistic.

    That is why skeptics are scoffing at his latest letter.

    In any case,I had concluded long ago that the last sixty (60) days to the general elections would be packed with dramatic events as political actors ramp up activities for the last last leg of the race to Aso Rock Villa-presidential seat of power.

    But l was stunned by Baba OBJ’s 1st of January letter specifically to Nigerian youth and the electorate in general, endorsing Mr Peter Obi who is LP’s presidential candidate in the 2023 presidential election.

    Prior to his current open letter promoting the candidacy of Mr Obi for the presidency of Nigeria in 2023,as a keen observer of politics in Nigeria,l had noted long ago that there was an unseen puppeteer behind ex Anambra state governor Obi’s bold move to become president of Nigeria by contesting for the post this year without a solid or established political base.

    Hitherto,Baba OBJ’s signature and if you like his imprimatur was at best a mere suspicion or speculation and never clear and unambiguous until his infamous letter published on 1st day of January.

    That is basically because not many people would have connected the dots to figure out that both Dr Doyin Okupe,the erstwhile campaign Director General for Mr Peter Obi’s presidential campaign that recently stepped down and his successor,my friend,Mr Akin Osuntokun were former aides to Baba OBJ.

    While Okupe was the spokesperson of Baba OBJ as president (1999-2007) Osuntokun was appointed the Director General of News Agency of Nigeria, NAN during the same period.

    And both of them have remained his trusted allies till date.

    And Baba OBJ’s disguise was intentional because he wanted to remain the power behind the masquerade,perhaps for the reason that he might become a burden instead of an asset to Mr Obi as he is turning out to be,if Obi’s candidacy was traced to him very early in the race.

    Invariably,the situation that he appeared to have been trying to avoid seem to be currently manifesting,if the bashing or push back that his letter has elicited especially from the camp of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu,BAT and a critical mass of Nigerians should be used as a barometer.

    In the rebuttals which have been brutal ,OBJ’s sordid past have been dredged up and they are not flattering at all.

    “The endorsement is actually worthless because the former President does not possess any political goodwill or leverage anywhere in Nigeria to make anyone win a Councillorship election let alone win a Presidential election. He is a political paperweight.

    “He is also not a democrat anyone should be proud to be associated with,” the statement concluded.

    To buttress how hard Baba OBJ has been scheming to return to the control of Nigeria as the grandmaster and godfather combined after he failed to succeed in extending his tenure also known as third (3rd) term gambit,allow me dwell on how the former president was also the initiator of the so called third force-a political movement that was established to run against APC and PDP candidates, President Mohammadu Buhari,PMB and AA was also populated and driven by his former aids and acolytes such as a former Cross Rivers state governor,ebullient Mr Donald Duke,ex minister of Education,fiery Oby Ezekwesili,and scholarly Professor Pat Utomi etal.

    But the movement failed to gain traction. And it is presently the back-office,while the LP and Peter Obi are the front-office for the fresh push for Nigerian state capture which the contestation for governance of Nigeria is often all about.

    At the inception of Third Force (3rd Force) movement before 2019 elections,Baba OBJ had made statements to the effect that the two main political parties – APC and PDP – were wobbling.

    And reiterated that nothing has happened to convince him otherwise and claimed that he is reinforced in his conviction that the only one choice left to take Nigeria out of Egypt to the Promised Land is the coalition of the concerned and the willing – ready for positive and drastic change, progress and involvement.

    He then made the following declaration: “I am happy to be a member of the Coalition for Nigeria Movement. The movement is a pressure point towards good governance.This is the commencement for our popular and grassroots association. Of course, the membership will be free to collectively decide on whether CNM becomes a political party. If the Movement decides to transform itself and go into partisan politics,I will cease to be a member.”

    It is needless to state that the much hyped political movement that was supposed to have been given wings to fly by OBJ,failed to take off.Some would argue that it was dead on arrival.

    Would he be able to use this same old wine in a new bottle to do what he could not accomplish in previous attempts?

    I have my doubts.

    Probably as a tireless Army General and in tandem with the dictum:old soldier never dies,Baba OBJ has been reinventing the platforms with which he intends to continue to indirectly rule Nigeria and has branded them with different names.

    But the more he plays a pivotal role in them,the less successful he has been.

    Perhaps,that is the reasoning behind his decision to remain incognito about his critical role in Mr Peter Obi’s presidency quest which is hinged on his past experience of being disappointed each time he front-loads his interest in the candidate and the political platforms or movements.

    As stated earlier,l do not see the latest attempt leading to a eureka moment for him.

    That is because both AA and BAT are too formidable political forces for him to walk over.

    As readers may recall, APC and PDP presidential standard bearers that were targeted by the latest letter are veterans of multiple political wars against Baba OBJ,of which incidentally,he (OBJ) has always ended up being worsted in the fight.

    Let us commence by recalling the former president’s battle with BAT who triumphed over him at the polls,when the state remained the only Yoruba enclave that did not fall under the control of OBJ led PDP as his candidate failed to win lagos state governorship election which at that time was being governed by BAT.

    The trick that OBJ applied in capturing south-west Nigeria during his presidency is well documented in elder statesman and ex ogun state governor and media royalty, Aremo Segun Osoba’s book: Battle Lines: My Adventures In Journalism and Politics”.

    Incidentally, Osoba himself was also a victim of Baba OBJ’s political treachery because he was at that time Ogun state governor:

    “Some people should stop distorting history.When Obasanjo was deceiving us, Tinubu was deceiving him also by registering many parties.”

    The second time BAT defeated OBJ was in court after he as president of the federal republic of Nigeria withheld the payment of federal government’s monthly allocated funds to Lagos state.That was done on the excuse that the state under the watch of BAT created Local Government Development Areas, LCDA which in OBJ’s reckoning was in contravention of Nigerian constitution.

    So, he unilaterally decided to seize Lagos state government’s funds in an autocratic manner.

    That was in spite of the fact that Nigeria was operating a democratic system of government,not a dictatorship.

    With the current vice President,Professor Yemi Osinbajo as then Lagos state Attorney General and commissioner for justice,the state went to court to slug it out with the central government led by Baba OBJ and got judgement in its favor at the Supreme Court level.

    And it was PDP government under late Umaru Yar’adua, who is Baba OBJ’s successor in 2007 that graciously released the trapped Lagos state government’s funds to it following the exit of Baba OBJ from Aso Rock Villa presidential seat of power on 29 May 2007.

    I intentionally highlighted the issue of seizure by Baba OBJ of Lagos state funds allocated to it from the federation account because it compelled BAT to seek other means of funding the state.And that desperation to find alternative sources of funding ushered in the use of tax consultants like the controversial Alfa Beta that creatively and massively taxed lagosians in the manner that water would be expected to be squeezed out of a rock.

    As they say in local lingo: Lagosians in particular and Nigerians generally can see from the forgoing when,where and how the rain started ‘beating’ them.

    Frankly,it did not surprise me or folks like me that are close observers of Baba OBJ’s politics going back to his days as a war theater commander of the 3rd Marine Commando during the unfortunate Nigerian civil war (1967-70 ),otherwise known as Biafran war, that he has been keen and still remains fixated on having his hands perpetually on the levers of power over Nigeria like an emperor.

    Baba OBJ’s attempt in 2006/7 to amend the constitution of Nigeria to allow him enjoy a third (3rd term) by subterfuge which is a deal that he had struck with governors (who are powerful leaders at the subnational levels) but of which he failed to keep his own end of the bargain; tends to validate his tendencies and inclinations towards being an emperor of sorts ruling over Nigeria as a puppeteer since he could not amend the constitution of the country to self perpetuate.

    Before proceeding further,l must confess that l have been fascinated by Baba OBJ who is the first to rule over Nigeria both as a military dictator (1976-79) and return in (1999 -2007)as a democratically elected president. The other personality to have achieved such a feat is incumbent president,Mohammadu Buhari,PMB.

    That is why l have written about him multiple times and amongst the plethora of essays that l have had Baba OBJ in focus,l am referencing the particular one which deals with his penchant for letter writing and claiming of moral authority or mounting moral high ground.

    In the essay written and published in my Daily Independent column of February 6, 2016, (some 7 years ago) and featured on other mass media platforms titled: Letter To Buhari: “Is OBJ An Opportunist,Patriot Or Mystic?”, l sought answers to a slew of questions about him that had been agitating my mind.
    Below is a snippet:

    “That is why, to me, this is a kind of déjà vu encore. In 2015, candidate Buhari similarly capitalised on the suffering of the masses ostensibly due to the “clueless government” of Goodluck Jonathan, and rode into Aso Rock on that premise. In 2018, owing to the absence of a credible presidential candidate with mass appeal to challenge Buhari, it became inevitable that OBJ, who still has political firepower in his belly to galvanise public angst against his targets, would seize the moment to muddy the 2019 political water for PMB via his letter. As we all know, nature abhors vacuum, and to that extent, it can be argued that OBJ is only filling a political void. This belief is underscored by the fact that he is not only tagging PMB a bad product, but he is also marshalling his support base through a political platform aptly tagged Coalition for Nigeria Movement (CNM) also known as the Third Force, which is a mystic nomenclature aimed at spoiling the chances of the ruling and main opposition parties, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and PDP in the 2019 general elections.

    “By so doing, OBJ may be finally stretching his narcissistic traits to new levels by taking the moral high ground of being all-knowing and perhaps the one appointed by God to save Nigeria. An attitude that his antagonists have alluded to in their scathing responses to his letter.

    “In 2007, OBJ pushed for Nigerians to vote for late president Umar Yar’Adua and they did. A little over two years into his tenure, he became gravely ill and OBJ tried to convince Nigerians to vote against him if he fails to resign and even nudged the National Assembly (NASS) to impeach him. But the man passed away before OBJ’s fury could become a storm.

    “Again, he cajoled Nigerians to replace late Yar’Adua with then Vice President Goodluck Jonathan. Nigerians obliged him and a few years after, he bayed for the blood of his “blue eyed” political prince Jonathan when the latter sought a second term.

    “Anybody else but Jonathan, he sermonised. OBJ had his way with the incumbent President Buhari by taking advantage of the void created by the schism within then ruling party, PDP, which he masterminded by dramatically tearing up his membership card of the party on whose platform he ruled Nigeria for eight years.

    “OBJ’s larger than life image can be situated within the foregoing strings of successes in determining the direction in which Nigeria’s leadership pendulum swings. But given that under his watch nothing spectacular happened in Nigeria in terms of the deepening of democracy or growing the economy, and he coaxed Nigerians to vote-in or vote-out of office at least two presidents that he handpicked after his exit from power, where does OBJ derive the authority or audacity to keep twisting Nigerians between his fingers?”

    Dear readers,the piece reproduced above was written by me in February of 2016 which is one month shy of seven (7)years ago.

    The full article is reproduced in my book that would soon be on sale in leading bookshops titled: Leading From The Streets. Media Interventions By A Public Intellectual(1999-2019).

    It is a six hundred (600) page book with Foreword written by HE General Yakubu Gowon, Head of State of Nigeria (1966-75) and Afterwords by eight (8) eminent and renown authorities in the subject matters or topics focused in the seven(7) chapters of the book containing seventy seven (77) selected essays that l have written and published in the mass media between 1999 to 2029,which is a period of twenty (20) years since the return of multi party democracy in Nigeria.

    I find it amazing that seven (7) years after the reproduced article was published,Baba OBJ is still mesmerizing or still trying to hoodwink Nigerian voters through his incendiary and often acerbic letters.

    As students of modern Nigerian political history would recall,it was when OBJ between 2003-2007 tried to sideline the governors by getting the constitution amended with their exclusion in the amendment that could have created the opportunity for then political ruling class to enjoy third (3rd) term in office,that the governors literally pulled the plug on him by ensuring that the amendment bill was ‘killed’ in the senate.

    The task of hobbling the amendment of the constitution was executed by then senate president,senate president,Ken Nnamani who led his colleagues in the 5th senate under the influence of,or tele-guided by then very powerful governors who charged him with making sure that the constitution amendment bill was not passed.

    Nnamani was later to pay the price by being stopped from returning to the senate when he was denied the ticket by his then mentor and governor of Enugu state,currently a senator of the federal republic,Dr Chimaroke Nnamani.

    Again an account of the high wire political shenanigan is well documented in the book written by the former senate president,Ken Nnamani and victim of what l would like to term OBJ’s brand of politics that brooks no opposition,for lack of a better nomenclature. Remarkably, Nnamdi has no regrets.

    On page 261 of the book “Standing Strong: Legislative Reforms,Third Term, And Other Issues Of The 5th Senate” while recapping his conversation with Obasanjo’s chief of staff, Major General Abdullahi Mohammed shortly after the matter was laid to rest, Nnamani wrote: “Tell him (Obasanjo) that we followed the procedure and it (the Constitution amendment) failed. Tell him it is over”.

    As it may be recalled,Baba OBJ was in Paris,France signing the infamous Green Tree agreement that handed over Bakassi to Cameroon when the terrible news of the killing of the constitution amendment to accommodate his tenure elongation plans was announced to him.

    So much for the political battles that OBJ had lost to BAT.

    At this juncture,let us bring to the fore,similar battles that OBJ also fought and lost to Wazirin Atiku Abubakar,AA.

    As a former army general and head-of-state of Nigeria as well as the first to serve Nigeria both as a military-of-head and as president in a democratic political setting,Baba OBJ never shied away from wars so he has been synonymous with conflicts which he has lost and won.

    And it is apropos that l apprise readers of the battles staged against AA by calling to remembrance the fact that owing to the raft of dictatorial actions taken by Baba OBJ during his first tenure (1999-2003), about seventeen (17)governors under the platform of PDP, including chief James Onanefe lbori, governor of Delta state and Orji Uzor Kalu of Abia state (1999-2007) as arrow heads,it was resolved that Baba OBJ would not be given the PDP ticket for a second term.

    The governors were angling for the vice president to OBJ, in the person of AA, to be given the opportunity to fly the party’s flag. So Baba OBJ was in a fix and a cul-de-sac when then PDP chairman, Chief Audu Ogbe conveyed the message from the rebelling governors to him.

    Multiple accounts of what transpired thereafter abound.But for the purpose of this discuss,l would like to go with the account by Orji Uzor Kalu,presently a senator of the federal republic and senate minority leader,who in a media interview granted many years ago,(which is currently trending in the social media) divulged how AA went down on his knees to beg the governors opposed to Baba OBJ’s second term,while besieging them to sheath their swords.

    According to Kalu,the aggrieved governors were initially implacable,but eventually got persuaded by AA,who incidentally was the potential beneficiary of the coup de grass, but graciously pleaded for mercy for his then boss, OBJ.

    But after OBJ’s re-election,salacious and sadistic stories have been told of how he visited Ogbe,had pounded with him and proceeded to sack him as PDP chairman the next day.

    Thereafter he was believed to have directed his vengeance against lbori ,late Diepreye Alamiesegha,then Bayelsa state governor and Orji Kalu,the perceived arrow heads of the OBJ must not be re-elected.

    The vendetta was taken a tad too far when in the bid to stop lbori from being eligible for re-election,he was framed for stealing zinc or roofing sheets enough to cover the whole of Apo in Abuja,Federal Capital Territory, FCT. It was an allegation without proof and lbori had to slug it out in court with OBJ where he also prevailed over OBJ.

    Considering how the current Central Bank of Nigeria,CBN governor,Godwin Emefiele is appearing to have been framed as being Boko Haram sponsor in the bid to arrest him and lock him away,which is a ploy that Emefiele’s camp aver is an attack triggered by his naira redesign policy that would negatively impact the ability of politicians to engage in vote buying during polls coming up in less than 60 days;the aphorism: give a dog a bad name so that you can hang it,rings true.

    In the light of the above,readers can imagine how far some powerful foes can go in trying to get their pound of flesh against their opponents in the political arena.

    To cut the story short,besides lbori ,Alamiesegha and Kalu’s ordeals, OBJ allegedly also did everything possible to ensure that AA did not succeed him as president in 2007. In fact he openly vowed to work against allowing AA become the president of Nigeria.There was the issue of PTDF where both of them fought dirty by washing dirty linen in public.

    But AA being a never-say-die fighter went on to clear his name in a long drawn battle in court with his principal ,OBJ after having been accused of corrupt practices which are in fact orchestrated charges by his traducers for the purpose of making then vice president ineligible to contest for the post of president of Nigeria.

    The courts cleared him of all the charges of fraud leveled against him and was therefore declared eligible to contest for the presidency,which he did in the primaries against Umaru Yar’adua of blessed memory,who won the contest and became the flag bearer of PDP and subsequently won the presidency in 2007.

    Now,it is worth pointing out that it is in the bid to revenge the perceived treachery by AA against him resulting in his debacle with the 17 governors that were against his second term bid,that Baba OBJ engaged in the personal vendetta fight during his second term resulting the stripping of AA of the responsibility of leading the privatization council that he had successfully driven to delivering GSM telephone services in Nigeria by licensing Econet of Zimbabwe (now Airtel) and MTN of South Africa that were the first to roll out their services in year 2001.

    It would interest readers to know that if AA had remained in charge of the privatization council during OBJ’s second tenure,perhaps the unbundling of the electricity power production and distribution services as well as petroleum drilling,refining and distribution services from from the control of government would have been completed by handing such public utilities to private sector operators in the manner that GLO , MTN and Airtel as well as 9Mobile are operating the telecommunications sector successfully.

    Had the process not been truncated by the internal schism from 2003 to 2007,it is very likely that Nigerians would not be suffering epileptic electricity power supply and petroleum products shortage which is currently having a debilitating effect on society.The two aforementioned malaise are the bane of Nigerian economy that would have been consigned to the dustbin of history basically because without stable and optimum supply of electricity,it has been impossible for Nigerian economy to transit from a consumption to production one without electricity to power factories that could lead to the much sought Industrial Revolution or facilitate an economy that would be open twenty four (24/7) hours a day which could boost the GDP of Nigerian economy currently put at $430 million to at least $1.1 billion where Indonesia,her peer in the 1960s is currently.

    By directing his 1st January letter to Nigerian youth , Baba OBJ was trying to stand on moral high ground by pontificating about corruption,integrity, age, etc.And he also tried to pitch youth against the older generation of politicians by invoking ‘It Is Your Turn’ in parody of BAT’s ‘emi lo kan’ rhetorics.

    Well,is Baba OBJ entitled to such moral high ground?

    The facts below do not support such assumptions:

    On the issue of corruption, a video where Ayodele Fayose , ex governor of Ekiti state is calling out Baba OBJ to refund the ten (10) million naira that he compelled all the 36 governors in the country to contribute towards the building of his presidential library in his Ota, Ogun state farm and country home.
    The source of funds for the construction of that library has been a sore point and subject of public discuss as it has since been described as perverse,even as private entrepreneurs were also believed to have been coerced to provide funds for Baba OBJ’s personal project.

    Dr Oby Ezekwesili in a trending media comment,just raked up issues of corruption within PTDF and she fingered AA as a culprit. Well , if my memory is not failing me , l can recall that PTDF was the subject of an epic battle for Baba OBJ and AA wherein both fought dirty by washing their dirty linen in public as they traded accusations about how the institution served as a source of slush funds for purchasing cars etc for the consorts of both the president and vice president.

    To the best of my recollection, PTDF scandal was a plot to stop AA from contesting for the presidency by Baba OBJ, but AA turned it around by exposing Baba OBJ when he drew public attention to his perversion of the system and absolved himself of any wrong doing in the law courts by getting a not guilty verdict. Thereafter,he was green lighted to contest for the presidency which he did but lost to Umaru Yar’adua of blessed memory, perhaps because he had been handicapped by starting late and not being in Baba OBJ’s good book.

    How can the youth that his 1st January letter is targeting relate to his sermonizing,when his real persona and public office records are nothing to emulate, but everything vile and unenviable?

    In my reckoning,Baba OBJ’s record in the public arena is a case of of Jekyll and Hyde or a Saint during the day and the devil at night ?

    From the same public records,Baba OBJ appear to be a terrible dad.

    His daughter Dr Iyabo Obasanjo has ascribed all sorts of unprintable names to him which for the sake of decency,l loathe to reproduce here and his son,Gbenga also amongst sundry allegations,accused him of sleeping with his (Gbenga’s) wife-incest.

    How many youths did Baba OBJ engage in government during his reign?

    When did he suddenly become a youth champion ? Only in 2015,he supported Buhari who was 72 against Goodluck Jonathan in his 50s. Less than eight (8) years after he is goading Nigerians to reject octogenarians in 2023 general elections.

    During his first tenure in office as president in 1999,he had oldies such as Mallam Adamu Ciroma as finance minister, Chief Anthony Anenih as minister of works,Chief Philip Asiodu as Economic Adviser and Chief Audu Ogbe as chairman of the party amongst other elders.

    Apparently, all these men of caliber and timber were not found wanting in the delivery of their duties. Or did they? And if they failed to discharge their responsibilities creditably,Baba OBJ did not indict them. Instead,he extolled their leadership virtues of which they are deserving.He also boasted in his lightening-rod-like new year ‘homily’ that all the current presidential candidates are his mentees that are aiming to take our country back to the high level that he had taken it during his tenure. Does that not sound like someone being megalomaniacal?

    Baba OBJ must have achieved the superlative success that he ascribed to himself with the help of the aforementioned grand daddies.

    Is it not therefore curious that they are suddenly being de-marketed by Baba OBJ?

    May l remind Baba OBJ that the president of the United States of America,USA Joe Biden is 80,the outgoing speaker, Nancy Pelosi is 82 and former president,Donald Trump that has thrown his hat into the ring for 2024 presidential contests is an octogenarian too?

    Baba OBJ’s point about disparaging elders of which he is one remains unfathomable to me.

    If at 85 years of age,he feels qualified and he has the mental capacity to counsel our youth and Nigerians in general as to who to vote for as our president in 2023,it means he is confident of his capacity to lead at his octogenarian age.

    Why does he think that those less than his age and are not suffering from any health debilities would not be able to perform the task of governance?

    I implore readers to allow me conclude by recalling the scathing comment below by Baba OBJ’s contemporary in the army Brigadier General,Godwin Alabi-lsama(rtd),who is the author of a seminal book on Nigerian civil war titled:The Tragedy Of Victory. On-The-Spot Account Of The Nigeria-Biafra War In The Atlantic Theatre “which is a 670 page tome published in 2013 where he debunked Baba OBJ’s claims of heroism during the war.

    Thereafter,Alabi-Isama had engaged in a public spat with Baba OBJ during which he made the following caustic statement:

    “I am not qualified to comment on Obasanjo’s political achievements, if any, for this country. The people and posterity will do that.

    “There is no president in this country that he has not condemned. Haba! He always thinks that he has the preserve of knowledge on how to rule this country. Did the country move forward when he was Head of State or President? He destroyed the heart of the national security. We can see the result today. He destroyed education in many ways. We see the result today. He destroyed a lot of other things. “As for how he has treated his family shabbily, his wife and children have openly made their comments. Those comments are in public domain today and forever, even though Obasanjo cleverly brushes them aside in his current book.I implore Obasanjo to stop lying before he dies.”

    With the above ‘scud missiles’ hurled at Baba OBJ by someone he admits he knows very well (having played games with him) and they have fought together in real war fronts,it is now left to the youth and indeed Nigerians in general to decide if Baba OBJ has the moral standing to advise them on who to cast their vote for during the forthcoming general elections to be held on 25 February and 11 March this year.

     

    Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur,public policy analyst,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
    To continue with this conversation,pls visit www.magnum.ng

  • Etymology of Atiku Abubakar as stepping stone for Igbo presidency – By Magnus Onyibe

    Etymology of Atiku Abubakar as stepping stone for Igbo presidency – By Magnus Onyibe

    As it may be recalled, a great deal of verbal missiles were hauled at Anambra state governor and former Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN governor, professor Chukwuma Charles Soludo when he contended in a recently published article titled: ”History Beckons And I shall Not Be Silent (part1)”, that nobody from the lgbo nation has a chance of becoming president of Nigeria in 2023.

    “Let’s be clear: Peter Obi knows that he can’t and won’t win. He knows the game he is playing, and we know too; and he knows that we know. The game he is playing is the main reason he didn’t return to APGA. The brutal truth (and some will say, God forbid) is that there are two persons/parties seriously contesting for president: the rest is exciting drama! “

    The masterpiece by Soludo was a realistic and pragmatic analysis of what l would like to characterize as the ‘lgbo dilemma’.

    Whereas,the frank advise should have woken up the lgbos from what can be likened to a fantastic wonderland dream of presiding over the affairs of our country from Aso Rock Villa in 2023,instead it got a good number of them so incensed that the level of bile directed in rebuke at Soludo was as if he committed some kind of heresy or apostasy.

    In order for readers to better understand the anger of the lgbos against Soludo or any other lgbo man or woman who does not subscribe to lgbo presidency of Nigeria in 2023,it is important that we put into context the propelling force for their quest to occupy Aso Rock Villa when the incumbent president Mohammadu Buhari exits next year.

    The truth is that the anger of the lgbos that culminated into the vitriolic attacks on Soludo stems from the over half of a millennium years old determination of the tribe to regain their lost pride and glory because they were at the commanding heights of the political,economic and social architecture of Nigeria,pre January 1966 coup by the military that resulted in the death of the first republic (1963-66) and the crash of the lgbo from power in practically all the spheres of life in our country.

    Not satisfied with their loss of power, particularly of the political hue in the Nigerian nation,the lgbo sought self determination by engaging the Nigerian state in a civil war from 1967 to 1970 when the country failed to allow her secede.

    But at the end of the war,rather than achieve their objective of returning to the pre-eminent position that they had occupied pre independence or before the British colonialist exited by granting Nigeria independence from colonial rule in 1960,the region got worse off.

    That is simply because a significant number of lives of lgbo people got dispatched prematurely to the meet their ancestors,just as the infrastructure in the eastern region got wantonly destroyed in the course of the horrific war and the situation has not changed much till date.

    In addition,the lgbos who lost the war have thereafter become systematically relegated to the bottom or even got excluded from the main stream of the political system in Nigeria.

    And that is evidenced by the reality that currently,the leadership power equation in the only country that the lgbos can call their own,seem to have been skewed against them as none of them is the head of the executive,legislative or judicial arms of government which is largely responsible for the enduring secessionist tendencies currently bedeviling the region in particular,and the whole country at large.

    Arising from the above,and being a realist, l would argue that Soludo’s  pragmatic  assessment of the chances of an lgbo man/woman becoming president of Nigeria in 2023 as he marshaled in his published treatise : “History Beckons And I Shall Not Be Silent (part 1) was on point.

    But lgbos appear not to be ready to accept the inconvenient truth,hence Soludo’s advise was discountenanced and he was disparaged and excoriated.

    Before the Anambra governor’s matter-of-fact advise that elicited the ire of some lgbos that generated the firestorm that almost literally consumed him,another prominent lgbo politician,senator Orji Uzor Kalu,the current chief whip of Nigerian Senate and ex governor of Abia state had also admonished members of his tribe not to seek to become president of Nigeria in 2023.

    Below are his reasons:

    “I have no problem with an Ibo man becoming president, but we have to do it with other Nigerians.

    “If you don’t do it with other Nigerians, it’s not going to work, no matter how popular you are. This is the president of Nigeria, not the president of Igbo land.”

    He was quoted as basically stating that the lgbos must wait for another time when Nigerians would agree to zone the presidency to the east.

    It is unsurprising that Kalu’s renunciation of lgbo presidency in 2023 did not trigger as much storm as Soludo’s admonishment which l would like to equate politically with an event recorded in the holy Bible ‘Sermon on the Mount’ which is a narrative of the teachings by our lord Jesus Christ during which he laid out the blue print of his doctrine to be followed by his disciples after he must have transformed from the physical into the spiritual realms.

    As the Muslim religion has

    lbrahimic origin which is why lslam recognizes Jesus Christ as lsah -a prophet of God and not son of God which is the belief of we Christians, I won’t be surprised if our Muslim brothers and sisters can identify an equivalent of such narrative in the holy Quran.

    According to John R.W. Stott, “The Sermon on the Mount is probably the best-known part of the teaching of Jesus,though arguably it is the least understood,and certainly it is the least obeyed”.

    So,Soludo’s solution obviously struck the wrong chord amongst not only some lgbo elites,but also a critical mass of of the hoi poloi who are perhaps living in a parallel universe and as such unable to process the reality that it is not yet time for lgbos to call the shots from Aso Rock Villa,and the reason the visionary Soludo was largely misunderstood.

    Perhaps, if the lgbos take the statistics below into consideration,they would probably have a different reaction to Soludo’s wise counsel.

    For instance,the total number of registered voters for the 2023 general elections in Nigeria according to lndependent National Electoral Commission,INEC is 93.5 million.

    And the total number of registered voters in the entire lgbo land is a paltry 11.49 million.

    That makes the eastern region the zone with the least number of registered voters.

    It is followed from the rear by the north central with 14.1 million voters.

    When you compare the south-east registered voters numbers which is about half of the 22.67 million registered voters in the north-west region,it would be clear that the eastern region is a dwarf or Lilliputian politically compared to the south-west which is a giant ,since it has the largest registered voters cache in our country.

    And that makes the south-west the battle ground for all the leading political parties and the south-east a less consequential part of the country for sourcing votes by politicians and therefore on the fringe in the reckoning of political strategists.

    Given the scenario described above,those clamoring for lgbo presidency should take notice of the fact that Wazirin Atiku Abubakar of PDP is from the northern region where the bulk of the voters reside,and it presupposes that he has a home base advantage.

    Also by juxtaposing the south east minuscule and insignificant number of registered voters against that of the south-west region which is 18.3 million,the eastern region’s jeopardy would come into greater relief.

    More so ,if it dawns on the proponents of lgbo presidency in 2023 that the south west is also APC torch bearer Bola Tinubu’s enclave and supporters base.

    But the Igbos driven by ethnic nationalism are wont to argue that lgbos being itinerant people are spread all over Nigeria.

    As such their voting power is more than the 11.49 million ascribed to the zone.

    But so are members of other major tribes -Yoruba,Hausa/Fulani ,ljaw, kanuri,Tiv, kalabari,Urhobo,ldoma and lbibio,lgbira,lgala,Angas etc,perhaps not as many as the lgbos that are challenged by land mass and very mercantile,hence they are very dispersed nationwide.

    Another dilemma that the lgbo nation is contending with in its quest for the presidency of Nigeria is the fact that,of the six (6) geopolitical zones in Nigeria,only the south east where the lgbo is the dominant tribe is comprised of five (5) states,while all the other five (5) regions have at least six (6) states each,with the north west region even having seven (7) states.

    The realities above are the major handicaps that should compel the lgbos to seek collaborations with with either north-west or south-west regions where the critical mass of voters are located,in order for their dream that a member of lgbo ethnic stock would become president of Nigeria would manifest.

    But rather than think critically,they have been fantasizing about an lgbo person becoming president of Nigeria in 2023 without taking into consideration the political calculus or equations outlined above.

    Can those claiming that political structures would not matter in election 2023 also deny the fact that the number of registered voters in specific regions of the candidates would count and a consequential presidential candidate must have a solid voter base ?

    Yet,most politically naive lgbos have elected to remain in self denial by being sentimental instead of analytical.

    Without looking beneath the inherent superficialities,they are counting on votes from the youth demography and those who are discontented with government either due to a prevailing culture of nepotism or insecurity of lives and properties as well as high level of poverty ravaging the masses under the watch of the current administration to catapult an lgbo man into the presidency.

    There is not enough space and time to put in array all the thistles and thorns that have buffeted Nigerians in the past nearly eight (8) years of APC maladministration. But suffice it to say that while those ignoble hallmarks of misrule are significant factors that can influence some voters to desire to punish the ruling party at the polls,they are not enough to swing the presidential pendulum to the lgbos because the region lacks the critical mass of voters.

    Worse still,since it has been established that most Nigerian registered voters reside in the north-west and south-west,it follows that they seldom know Peter Obi and the LP platform.

    More so because Obi and LP were basically unknown quantities nationally,until less than a year ago when the political platform and its candidate became a third force in 2023 presidential race that was hitherto looking like a two horse race.

    To gain better insight,apart from Obi not having a political base like Atiku that practically has the entire north glued together by not only his robust political pedigree but religion and language; and Tinubu that controls the south-west leveraging his long political pedigree and monarchical system existent in Yoruba land,readers only need to interrogate the voting pattern of Nigerians as captured in INEC’s historical records to discover that the category of the electorate that exercise their franchise the most are folks in the rural areas.

    They are not the necessarily the smattering of youth and city slickers who are clamoring for Obi presidency and a handful of discontented adults seeking a new political order.

    The category of Nigerians described above are not whom the lgbo nation should anchor their hope of being the tribe ruling the roost in Aso Rock Villa in 2023.

    For crying out loud,most of our mothers, fathers,aunts and uncles in the villages are the ones who often step out to vote in throngs.

    And they were likely not captured in the opinion polls,particularly the ANAP polling of which the pollsters have admitted they conducted by phone which by its nature is prone to manipulation therefore deeply flawed.

    It is unfortunate that the pollsters seem to be ignoring those factors,either by omission or commission,hence they have ended up with their wrong calculations and false hope about the lgbo producing the next president being a realizable objective without serious collaboration or alliance with voters from any of the two main zones that are home to significant number of voters.

    Had the attempted partnership between the LP and Dr Musa Kwakwanso’s New Nigerian Peoples Party,NNPP come into fruition with Obi as the presidential candidate of the coalition,the probability of an lgbo president in 2023 would have been higher.But without such an arrangement,Obi’s quest for the presidency would most likely be an exercise in futility.

    The above reality is the justification for the recent comment by a prominent lgbo billionaire and power broker,Chief Arthur Eze who reportedly stated in the media, last week,the 24th of December that he had made it known to the LP Presidential candidate,Peter Obi that his ambition is inordinate was emphatic that he is not part of Obi’s plan.

    “I told him to drop his ambition,and wait for next time. “When he told me about his ambition,l asked him the states he thinks he can win in the west and in the north -he told me, but l was not convinced.l told him he can not win; so that he would not waste his time and money”

    Incidentally,in various opinion pieces that l  have been writing and publishing in the mass media in the past two years, l had already identified and analyzed all the bogeys or stumbling blocks clogging the path of the lgbo man’s quest for becoming president of Nigeria without being propelled by the presently moribund presidential power rotation or power shift principle.They can all be found in my website magnum.ng.

    By obviously ignoring the wise counsel of critical lgbo stake holders like Chukwuma Soludo and Arthur Eze,as referenced earlier,clearly Mr Obi must be relying on opinion polls that have been forecasting that president Buhari would be handing over to him as his successor on 29 May 2023.

    Another probable factor which may be at play for the lgbos (with Obi as the arrow head) to be nursing the false hope that they would be producing the next president would be that his strategists are likely working from the answer to the question,instead of the other way round.

    Equally significant is the stunning revelation that presidential power rotation principle which is a gentle man’s agreement hashed out during the unimplemented National Conference held under former military head of state,late general SANNI  Abacha’s regime in 1995 . It was basically a political power sharing formula that is still being relied upon by the lgbos to claim that it is the turn of some of their ethnic stock to rule Nigeria.

    That principle which is not enshrined in Nigeria’s statutes book has been jettisoned by both the ruling All Progressives Party,APC and main opposition peoples Democratic party,PDP, yet the lgbo appear to have remained fixated on it and seem not ready to purge themselves of the mind set.

    Given the present dynamics of politics in Nigeria,only the APC or PDP are the political platforms that can produce the president of Nigeria.

    And the lgbo is unfortunate that the two parties have no lgbo man as their presidential flag bearer.

    So the chance of an lgbo man taking charge in Aso Rock Villa from 29 May 2023 is practically zero.

    The conclusion above does not imply that l have not taken cognizance of the recent emergence of Labor Party,LP as a third (3rd) force in Nigeria’s political space with Mr Peter Obi,former Anambra state governor on the platform of APGA 2007-2014 who was also in 2019 the running mate to Wazirin Atiku Abubakar as presidential flag bearer on the platform of PDP which contested against incumbent president,Mohammadu Buhari of APC.

    But,since it is an inconvenient truth for the typical lgho man that has been seeking to return to the top of the pecking order of leadership of Nigeria resulting in a destructive three (3) years civil war that is believed to have claimed the lives of an estimated three (3) million Nigerians with the lgbos as the main victims,Soludo’s kinsmen who are apparently blind sided by their legitimate,but unrealizable ambition,have chosen to deem the realistic prognosis as an art of betrayal of his people for which he was ‘roasted ‘by lgbo intelligentsia,especially the social media denizens,also known as Obidients and architects of the famous #Endsars protests that had the potentials of revolutionizing Nigeria in 2020.

    Fortuitously,Wazirin Atiku Abubakar has emerged on the scene like a knight in a shining amour to offer the lgbos the rescue that they have been craving by giving them the opportunity via his current quest for the presidency for one of them to be his running mate as vice president.

    By so doing he is according the lgbos the honor and privilege of being the stepping stone for lgbo nation into Aso Rock Villa:

    “I am going to be a stepping stone to an Igbo president in this country. I have shown it in my action, because this is the third time I am running with an Igbo man. If you really want to produce a president, then, vote Atiku-Okowa ticket.”

    The emotional feelings that are oftentimes elicited by an lgbo person not becoming president of Nigeria is so potent that when current lmo state governor,chief Hope Uzodinma of APC via a political abracadabra (controversial court ruling) supplanted, Emeka Ihedioha of the PDP who had earlier been declared winner and sworn into office as lmo state governor; and Uzodinma in trying to take control of the state that was originally largely PDP as governor on APC platform,reportedly called in the military to keep the peace.

    That decision that was necessitated by the rising spate of violence and break down of law and order in the state, resulted in his country home being set ablaze with all the appurtenances including a Rolls Royce car burnt down.

    Having taken into consideration the above circumstances,as far back as two (2) years ago,l had been writing a series of articles with the aim of averting the minds of lgbo people to the rough road that it has to travel to get into Aso Rock Villa in 2023.

    And I had long arrived at the conclusion that it is simply mathematically impossible for an lgbo person to become President of Nigeria without having a prolific political base and aligning with people from the north-west or south-west of Nigeria to make it happen.

    Mr Peter Obi,incidentally is from the south-east which is a politically disadvantaged region probably as a consequence of the civil war triggered by the decision of lgbo leadership at that time to secede in 1967-barely six (6) years after Nigeria’s independence and three (3) years after becoming a republic.

    Worse still,the south-east can not be said to have a political base,simply because there is no evidence that he is enjoying the sympathy of any of the main or even fringe political parties or incumbent governors-from Anambra,Enugu,lmo ,Ebonyi to Abia states.

    Yes,he has the backing of the lgbo social-cultural group Ohaneze Ndigbo,but it is not a political machine. In fact it is as impotent politically as Afenifere in Yoruba land and Arewa in Hausa/Fulani part of our country.

    Do the lgbos have legitimate and justifiable reasons to jostle for the presidency, the answer is in the affirmative.

    That would more than any policy of government enable them get reintegrated into Nigerian nation after the war fought, won and lost some fifty two (52) years ago.

    But as things currently stand,only an Atiku Abubakar presidency with lgbo man as vice president is the out-of-the-box thinking formula that can make it happen.

    It is disappointing that the so called three (3 Rs) Reconstruction,Reconciliation and Reintegration of the lgbos into the Nigerian nation which is a policy introduced by the general Yakubu Gowon regime that prosecuted and won the war (1967-70) has been largely implemented in breach.That is one of the reasons that the polarizing fault lines of division have been widening and amplifying the exclusion of lgbos in the political leadership of our beloved country at the centre due to actions and inactions of the incumbent regime which is exactly why the separatist sentiments of the easterners have persisted.

    Having laid the foundation for the establishment of the proposition that Wazirin Atiku Abubakar would be the stepping stone for lgho presidency, l would like to crave the indulgence of readers to allow me republish a relevant portion of one of the articles that l wrote and first published nearly two years ago in both traditional and online media platforms titled:”Nigeria Presidency 2023: Where Are The lgbo Candidates”

    Here we go.

    “The political inactivity in lgbo land with respect to the presidency of Nigeria in 2023 is quite the opposite of the preparatory activities towards the forthcoming November 6, governorship election which both president Buhari and lNEC chairman,Mahmood Yakubu have vowed must hold on schedule,despite the IPOB threat.

    Somehow , the quartet of Andy Uba of APC, Val Ozigbo of PDP, Chukwuma Soludo of APGA, and Ifeannyi Uba of YPP representing the main political parties have been ramping up their campaigns.

    Given the scenario above , and if the lgbos are really not politicking for the presidency like their Yoruba and Hausa/Fulani counterparts, (which is evident by the reality on ground) the prospect of lgbo presidency in 2023 that may already be in peril, needs to be given a shot-in-the-arm through a strategic partnership that would provide required political structures and financial muscle .

    That is what informed my proposal in the earlier referenced article: “How To Become The President Of Nigeria ln 2023”that the lgbo should align with Atiku Abubakar as PDP presidential candidate in 2023 to achieve the dream of lgbo presidency in 2027.

    My proposal is underscored by the belief that it would be unlikely that the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar who has become a veteran in presidential contests since 1992 with enormous practical experience , would seek for re-election in 2027, if elected president in 2023 via an lgbo alliance and PDP support.

    Unless other northern contenders like Aminu Tambuwal or Bala Mohammed are willing to serve only one term and hand over to an lgbo Vice President,which is a highly unlikely scenario simply because of their relatively young age compared to the former Vice President who would be 75 years next month,lgbo quest for the presidency of Nigeria may remain a mirage.

    In my view, a partnership with Atiku Abubakar as a pathway to Aso Rock Villa remains the most viable trajectory for an lgbo man/woman to become president of Nigeria in 2027 on PDP platform .That is because , Atiku Abubakar is liberal , broad minded, business savvy and has links by marriage to all the three major ethnic groups-Hausa/Fulani, Yoruba and lgbo in Nigeria. It implies that Atiku Abubakar presidency would likely be more inclusive than nepotistic-a trademark of the current government in power that is fueling the current gale of separatist movements.

    The point being made here is that under Atiku Abubakar’s watch as president, separatism would be consigned to the dustbin as inclusiveness becomes a major policy plank in government.With inclusiveness becoming a centre point of public policy in Nigeria ,secessionist tendencies would die a natural death in the manner that Niger delta militancy ceased after the late president Umaru Yar’adua took strategic steps to stabilize the volatile region via his offer of Amnesty to former militants after meeting some of their demands.

    The existential reality in Nigeria’s current political equation that is not balanced , no thanks to Fredrick Lugard.

    That truth is that the lgbos need help to actualize their quest for the presidency of Nigeria. As Atilla the Hun advised “choose your enemies wisely and your friends carefully.”

    It should be obvious to the average lgbo that they can not ascend the throne in Aso Rock Villa seat of power by themself as they lack the numerical strength and political tentacles . And they must accept that their mastery of business can not overnight be translated into the political savviness that is required for someone of lgbo extraction to become the number one(1 )citizen presiding over our country in Aso Rock Villa from 2023.

    So an alliance with the former Vice President , Atiku Abubakar whose political fortune has been built since the time that he first contested against the late MKO Abiola in Social Democratic Party, SDP primaries held in 1992, remains the most viable political catapult that can propel the lgbo nation into Aso Rock Villa , after Alex Ekwueme’s partnership with Shehu Shagari for the presidency of Nigeria (1979-1983).

    It is disappointing that Ekwueme’s vice presidency is the last time the lgbo enjoyed worthy political significance in a country that they have indisputable ancestry.

    Frankly , without adopting or resorting to the application of the type of cold calculations that l am advocating, the lgbo’s demand for someone from their  ethnic stock as number one occupant in

    Aso Rock Villa would  very likely remain a mirage and mission impossible as it would continue to be elusive beyond 2023 and even 2027.

    As a follow up article to “How To Become President Of Nigeria”, l wrote another piece titled : “A Citizen’s Guide on How To Become President of Nigeria” also published on the back page of Thisday newspaper on October 22,2021 and other mainstream newspapers, including Daily lndependence, Vanguard as well as online platforms. And the following points were brought to the attention of readers:

    “Although presidential power play is largely about popularity, it also significantly utilizes conspiracies and alliances as the oxygen and blood for positioning popular candidates for victory in presidential polls.”

    In light of the above reality, which ethnic nationality or nationalities in the Nigerian Union is the lgbo building alliance or conspiring with, overtly or covertly ? None”

    So by and large what Chukwuma Soludo was literally clobbered on the head for saying,had already been identified long ago in my articles before he articulated them more forcefully like a professor that he truly is.And before anybody levels a hasty and mischievous allegation of being anti lgbo against me,l implore readers to obtain and read my latest book : Becoming President of Nigeria. A Citizen’s Guide(2022)

    A quarter of the book which is four (4) of the twelve (12) chapters tome is dedicated to making a case for lgbo presidency in 2023.

    But after painstakingly identifying and interrogating the odds stacked against the lgbo nation in the present political structure of our country,l came to the conclusion that the most feasible pathway for the lgbo to ascend to the apogee of power in Aso Rock Villa soon is to quickly get on the PDP train and piggy-tail Wazirin Atiku Abubakar by ‘donating’ to him their votes in exchange for an lgbo person as vice Presidential candidate that would take over from him in four(4) years time,2027 when he completes his first tenure.

    The lgbo leadership did not heed my nearly two years old advise and my brother, current delta state governor,Dr lfeanyi Okowa who saw the opportunity and could not resist it by letting it slip off,seized the moment.

    And he has identified himself as lgbo man and no one can deny him that identify.

    As it is often with contestation for political power,Okowa did not wait to be given power,he seized it.

    So the rest is now history.

    Incidentally,before l made a case for the lgbo to make a beeline to the presidency via partnership with former vice president Atiku Abubakar, l never discussed it with him even though l have had the privilege of knowing the Wazirin Adamawa over a long time,curtesy of my long association with my former boss and brother,ex governor of delta state (1999-2007) chief James lbori who facilitated my sojourn into politics as a commissioner in his cabinet since 2003.

    It did not surprise me that my proposition for my lgbo brothers/sisters to hinge their mission to Aso Aso Rock Villa on Wazirin Atiku Abubakar’s presidency in 2023 was tagged by my friends and critics alike as ‘Magnus formula’ and of which l received more than a fair share of knocks by the same media mobs that tried to maul Professor Soludo for telling the lgbo nation some home truth.

    About two (2) years after the idea was mooted,I am delighted that the PDP presidential candidate,Wazirin Atiku’ Abubakar has finally validated my proposition made to the lgbos ‘several moons ago’ (as a typical lgbo person would put it) by personally making the pledge to them during his campaign stomp in Awka,Anambra state capital on 15 December,2023 that his presidency would be a stepping stone for lgbo presidency of Nigeria.

    Again,leaning on or drawing from the legendary lgbo wittiness, ‘ndigbo now have the yam and the knife‘ and they can not pretend not to know what to do with the yam and knife.

     

    Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur,public policy analyst,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.

    To continue with this conversation,pls visit www.magnum.ng

  • Qatar 2022: A Moment In History For Football And Africa – By Magnus Onyibe

    Qatar 2022: A Moment In History For Football And Africa – By Magnus Onyibe

    The quote “It is time for Africa” captured the feelings of most Nigerians and indeed Africans during the just concluded football fiesta FlFA World Cup 2022 held in Qatar,a tiny gulf country in the Arab world from 20th November to 18 December.

    That comment was made after Morocco qualified to go beyond the quarterfinals by beating Spain on Tuesday,6 December.

    And those words of exhortation are credited to the Peoples Democratic Party,PDP flag bearer for the presidency of Nigeria in 2023,Waziri Atiku Abubakar who was inspired to make the tweet because Africa had never gone as far as featuring beyond the quarter finals of any FIFA World Cup match.

    And the comment took on a new meaning when on December 14,although France the defending champion defeated Morocco in a very gallantly fought contest, it did so with Africans as significant members of the squad.

    So, whereas Morocco,the African team could not advance further or proceed beyond the semi finals having been beaten by France,Africa remains a winner as earlier observed by the PDP presidential standard bearer,Atiku Abubakar.

    That is simply because members of the black race featured prominently in the finals held on Sunday 18 December which Argentina eventually won by defeating the hard fighting France powered by Africans.

    For obvious reasons,a lot of Africans were cheering France because although the French are supposed to be Europeans,the team comprised of more Africans/blacks than the Moroccan team which is supposed to be an African country,but dominated by players that did not have black color skin/pigmentation.

    That is why victory for France in the World Cup earlier played in Russia in 2018 that also involved significant number of blacks in the contestation on the side of France was already deemed as victory for Africa.

    Even though it was just mere symbolism,the affirmation of the African fusion or influence on the French team got consolidated with its emergence in the finals with Argentina in Qatar 2022.

    In fact,any which way one looks at it,Africa is somehow winners of Qatar 2022 FlFA World Cup,simply because Africans/blacks were predominantly featured in all the major countries teams from France to England,Spain,Germany, Switzerland, Brazil ,Portugal to USA and even Qatar the host country.

    It is therefore unsurprising that in a tournament that has been full of surprises,the African /Arab nation,Morocco carried the hope of estimated 1.2 million Africans and about 400 million members of the Arab world.

    That is a total of roughly 1.6 billion people on planet earth. Given that the world currently has a human population of about eight (8) billion,Morocco during the game became the only African/Arab country carrying the hope of at least twenty percent (20%) of members of the human race in the 2022 Football World Cup.

    Hence the defeat of Portugal by Morocco in the quarter finals was an African marvel or miracle.More so because the success was achieved even when the obviously biased referee from the Western world issued Walid Cheddira a second yellow card in quick succession that added up to a red card which compelled him to leave the field of play with only ten(10)Moroccan players left to play against Portugal’s eleven (11) men.

    Despite the rigging of the game against Morocco by the referee who maliciously issued the unwarranted yellow cards to the Moroccan player in the usual manner that the Western world constantly seeks to repress Africans,the hard fighting African country prevailed over the almighty Portugal featuring the super stars Ronaldo and Pepe in action against the underdog Moroccan team in the mundial.

    It is remarkable that the competition that commenced with thirty (32) countries teams comprising of super power or heavy weight football countries like Brazil, Germany,Portugal ended up having underdog countries teams like Croatia and Morocco playing in the semi finals against France and Argentina respectively.

    Given how how Saudi Arabia shocked Argentina with a defeat and Japan stung Germany by winning the duel with her and Cameroon wrecked Brazil by also beating that superpower country in their opening games in Qatar 2022,the world was put on notice that anything can happen in football as the erstwhile super power football countries no more have bragging rights.

    Personally,l was not surprised that an African team-Atlas Lions of Morocco ,which is one of the five that represented the continent- South Africa,Senegal,Ghana and Cameroon ,in the tournament became part of the final four(4).

    In my assessment,the success achieved by Morocco is somehow due to home advantage of also being an Arab country playing in Arab land,Qatar.

    It is a demonstration of how local home support by fans can boost the confidence of a team and drive it to victory.

    That is also why supporters clubs are so very critical to the success of any sporting event – ranging from boxing ,wrestling to basketball and football including track and field sports.

    A cheering crowd is always an asset, hence football in particular is always played both at home and away to evenly boost the confidence of the competing teams on equal basis.

    For example,if Nigeria is playing in qualifying matches for World Cup or Olympics against Ghana,it is required that the matches are played both in Nigeria and Ghana (home and away) before the finals are played in the host country.

    That is owing to the fact that sporting aficionados have figured out the psychological boost that home support could engender for athletes.

    And hence the farther away from our home base that we Africans and Arabs go to play in the World Cup like in Russia which hosted the last FIFA World Cup in 2018 before the Qatar tournament,the less likely the chances of our countries teams going far in the contest.

    As a testimony to the logic above,in 1996 Nigeria clinched the trophy in football during the Olympics held in Atlanta, Georgia which has one of the highest black population in the United States of America,USA.

    Apart from the superb talent of our players,with so many black people cheering them,the Sunday Oliseh led Nigerian team was definitively buoyed up,hence it was able to beat the whole world to emerge tops by being the winner of the Olympic cup in football in 1996.

    When in 2018 during the World Cup in Russia,Qatar was chosen to host the 2022 football World Cup,it seemed like an anathema.But FIFA World Cup 2022 to the surprise of those who thought it was a mistake turned out to be one of the best in recent history.

    At least that is the view of FIFA president,Gianni lnfantino and a critical mass of football commentators and spectators who share the excitement of being thoroughly thrilled by the matches in the tournament especially the final duel between France and Argentina.

    From the get-go,the gulf country that hosted the championship had promised to make it a memorable experience despite the concerns of its opponents,particularly the Western world and especially the US which was on cue to be the next host,having vigorously pitched for it.

    But it was to its greatest shock that it got supplanted by Qatar which is a country of a mere three (3m) million number of people and not a significant force in football compared to the US whose population is in excess of three hundred and thirty two (332) million and the richest and most powerful country in the world.

    It is even more striking that it is the first time that FIFA World Cup would be staged in an Arab country and in winter.

    In 2010,it had been the turn of Africa when South Africa became the first and only African country so far to host the global football fiesta that has its origins in Europe and Britain to be specific in the 19th century.

    Jonathan Guyer,a Vox news organization correspondent in the gulf reckons that Qatar spent an estimated three hundred ($300b) on stadium and ground work in hosting 2022 FIFA World Cup.
    He enthused in a recent report that:

    “That money totaled more than all previous World Cups and Olympics combined.”

    In light of the huge success that it has turned out to be,the investment of $300 billion to make the tournament happen and which is just about thirty five ($35b) less than the sovereign wealth fund of the country estimated at about ($335b),has been well worth it.

    That is given the fact that the global football fiesta has helped Qatar,a relatively small country covering a just 11,536 square meters of land space compared to its much bigger neighbors, Saudi Arabia (35.8m) and United Arab Emirates,UAE,(10m) to consolidate her preeminence in the gulf region in addition to the country’s cultural diplomacy which is quite notable.

    With a population of Qatari Arabs being only about 330,000 or a little over 11% of the population of the country of about three(3) million and spending an estimated one ($1b) billion dollars annually on museum and art,Qatar which is certainly punching far above its weight,has obviously gotten a lot of mileage from hosting 2022 FIFA World Cup.

    Even if Morocco did not eventually end up bringing the coveted trophy back home to Africa,in any case,the black race,in the reckoning of most football enthusiasts won.

    Which is basically because the black players that constitute a significant part of the French national squad with Kyliane Mbappe as the arrow head gave a good account of themselves before the loss to Argentina after the match Initially ended up in a 3-3 draw after full time.

    But unfortunately,the hard fighting French team finally lost by 4 -2 to Argentina in a penalty shoot out also known as sudden death.

    It was curios to me why Argentina that is located in South America like Brazil does not have blacks in its national team in the manner that Brazil features a lot of blacks.

    In fact,l was shell shocked to see that there were no blacks in the gallery from where Argentinian fans were cheering.

    So,I was determined to figure out why blacks did not feature in both the Argentinian team in the field of play and it’s boisterous supporters cheering from the gallery.

    That reality seemed like a mystery to me until a podcast by one Jude ldada resolved the puzzle for me.

    Now,the conspiracy theory (since l am yet to verify it) is that there used to be blacks in Argentina before they were systematically killed,eliminated or erased from that country after the obnoxious practice of slave trade ended.

    Without going into details,it is alleged that Argentinians compelled their blacks to fight in their war against Paraguay between 1864 to 1870 knowing fully well that the blacks who were ill equipped would be killed in the battle field.And they were indeed killed in large numbers. Then those that survived the atrocities of being sent to war as a death trap were later bunched up in a colony which had outbreaks of diseases that the authorities did nothing to curtail or control simply because it is part of their evil intensions to erase blacks in a race cleansing agenda.

    That is something akin to what happened in 1915 to Armenians who were for economic reasons and at the behest of the Rothschilds (French oil rich family in cahoots with the Rockyfellers,American oil merchant family) ‘removed’ by the Turkish Ottoman Empire in the modern day Baku region now tagged Armenian genocide during world war l.

    It is also a pattern that was repeated in Germany by the Nazis that eliminated the Jews in Europe during world war ll in 1945 now infamously known as Nazi Holocaust or Jewish genocide.

    Is it not amazing how Qatar 2022 FlFA World Cup has facilitated the shinning of light on that dastardly act of eliminating blacks in their country by Argentina?

    While one would like to encourage Africans/black race to forgive Argentinians of the inhumanity perpetrated by their forbears centuries ago by wishing them well and joining in celebrating their victory,they may never forget the atrocities committed against their forbears,lest it happens again.

    At another level,FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 has also been very disappointing to the English team and nation at large.

    They had adopted the slogan ‘football is coming home’ because they were hopeful that they would clinch the cup and take it home in light of the fact the tournament actually started in Europe in 1930.

    Nevertheless,l presume that they must have taken solace in the fact that they are in a similar boat as football greats like Brazil and Germany.

    Africa would have been equally disappointed since Morocco could not be in the finals.But as earlier stated,the black race is still considered to have been well represented in the finals in of the World Cup played between France and Argentina on Sunday 18 December.

    That is by virtue of the sheer number of black players in the the French team which Africa and the Arab would understandably preferred to cheer in the final match that saw France rising from behind twice to equalize with Argentina in goals scoring.

    By some account,over 50% of the French squad for Qatar 2022 FlFA World Cup are blacks and notably the super star Mbappe who is originally from the west African country,Cameroon.

    That remarkably implies that the continent of Africa won,even if Morocco crashed out in the last four nations stage and France gallantly lost to Argentina after a penalty shoot out and could not make history like Brazil and Italy by winning the trophy,back to back.

    Incidentally,Paris Saint Germain,PSG the France based football club side where both kyliane Mbappe – French national and Lionel Messi,an Argentinian ply their trade is owned by the state of Qatar.

    What Qatar affirms by making that strategic purchase over a decade ago is that investing in sports goes beyond mere recreation or entertainment value. It has proven to be a veritable tool or platform for local development(infrastructure wise) internationalization(in terms of opening up the economy of nations)and opportunity to make a statement of arrival as a global sociopolitical, economic and cultural power house by the host country.

    And it is worth pointing out that Qatar 2022 FIFA World Cup has been long in coming by virtue of the fact that the project started when the tiny natural gas rich country acquired the high premium European club side,PSG.

    Most critics might have likened Qatar’s initiative to host the World Cup to a tiny Cod fish trying to swallow a whale.

    And the Arab country might have been accused of nursing a halting ambition, when it first acquired interest in PSG in June 2011 after which it later attained whole ownership in March 2012.

    Although Qatar might have initially appeared to have punched above its weight,it has been well worth it.
    Is it not instructive that Qatar’s hosting of the FIFA World Cup is a dream that took over a decade (2011-2022) to evolve and manifest ? Unlike Nigeria that has been squandering it’s oil/gas wealth by not only subsidizing the pump price of petrol,but also borrowing against future incomes from oil resources to fund the present culture of unbridled consumption.

    Football,nay sports is certainly a socioeconomic development catalyst,hence countries around the world aspiring to open up to the global community,often host global sporting events -China,Russia,Qatar and those that are looking to consolidate their global outlook also covet hosting international sporting tournaments-German, USA, Brazil, UK etc.

    In fact the power of sports is so socially, politically and economically strategic that the next World Cup in 2026 is to be jointly hosted by some of the most illustrious countries in North America-US,Mexico and Canada with eleven(11) matches scheduled to be played in the US, three (3)in Mexico and two (2)in Canada.

    Without a scintilla of doubt,Qatar 2022 is an indisputable testimony to the fact that there is virtue in thinking big and meticulously and patiently implementing the ‘big thinking’.

    Arising from the above,l am recommending that Atiku Abubabar who l am projecting to be the next occupant of Aso Rock Villa -Nigeria’s presidential seat of power from May 29,2023 ,should start thinking big like Qatar by planning for Nigeria to host the FIFA World Cup,perhaps in the next decade, regardless of whether his tenure would have expired.

    And that is based on the hope that he prevails in the 2023 presidential contest.

    One baffling thing about sports and football in particular is the paradox that often springs from it.

    For instance,while Argentina that established its supremacy over all other football loving countries of the world is currently in economic dire straights with a heavy debt burden unpaid to the International Monetary Fund,IMF, conversely the rich countries exited Doha,Qata early,having been edged out by the poorer countries that have proven to be better in the mastery of the game.

    These include nations such as Saudi Arabia,the richest in the Arab world alongside the host Qatar that lost during the early stages and exited.So also did the US and Canada,the wealthiest in North America and indeed the world that failed to win and had to depart early.By the same token,China and Japan which are the most prosperous in Asia,also had to go home early.Just as Germany and Uk,the richest in Europe also did not do well enough and had to depart prematurely.

    But Argentina,a country under the yoke of socioeconomic malaise excelled by defeating the whole world,including the richest.

    Is it not such an irony that in celebration of the victory,an unprecedented number of the forty five (45)million populace of the financially challenged country,taking advantage of a public holiday declared in commemoration of the victory trooped out into the streets of the capital,Buenos Aires to celebrate their triumphant football team,and by so doing momentarily forgot their worries and the pangs of hunger that had been tormenting them?

    In the light of the above reality,an interesting food for thought is the question: ls football the new opium of the poor,as religion was famously dubbed the opium of the poor by the German sociologist and economist,Karl Marx?

    The FlFA president Gianni Infantino’s poignant statement below seems to answer the question:

    “Those fans and the billions watching on TV, they have their own problems. They just want to watch 90 or 120 minutes without having to think about anything, but just enjoying a little moment of pleasure and joy. We have to give them a moment when they can forget about their problems and enjoy football.”
    Having highlighted and underscored the salient points,my job is done and l therefore urge readers to draw their own conclusions.

     

    Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur,public policy analyst,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.

    To continue with this conversation,pls visit www.magnum.ng

  • Comparative analysis of Tinubu and Buhari Chatham House presentations – By Magnus Onyibe

    Comparative analysis of Tinubu and Buhari Chatham House presentations – By Magnus Onyibe

    The Chatham House, London hiatus by the presidential flag bearer of the All Progressives Congress, APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu on December 5, has foreclosed his chance of becoming president of Nigeria and cemented the possibility of Waziri Atiku Abubakar presidency and Peoples Democratic Party, PDP return as the ruling party at the center from next year.

    The assertion above is underscored by the fact that Asiwaja Tinubu’s performance at Chatham House has turned out to be nothing but political higgledy-piggledy.

    Although indirectly, all the suspicions of mental incapacities and physical debilities allegedly earlier exhibited by Asiwaju Tinubu as reflected by the numerous goofs and gaffes that he reportedly committed during his public outings considered to be hinderances to the ruling party’s candidates chance to succeed president Mohammadu Buhari as the next occupant of Aso Rock Villa in 2023, were affirmed and validated by his abdication from the responsibility to respond to questions posed to him after his presentation to an audience of eminent personalities at the forum organized by the UK based foreign policy think tank, Chatham House.

    Instead of rising up to the occasion to put a lie to or cancel out the suspicions which had appeared to me initially as malicious,the presidential standard bearer of APC outsourced the duty to answer the questions to his allies-kaduna state governor,Nasir El Rufai ,Speaker of the House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila and Mr Dele Alake,former commissioner for lnformation when Tinubu ruled lagos state 1999-2007,as well as Mrs Beta Edun who is APC women leader and Ben Ayade ,Cross Rivers state governor.

    In fact that spectacle is not only embarrassing,it is scandalous and an insult not only to Nigeria and Nigerians that he has persistently ignored by not honoring the invitation to attend town hall meetings by the media (Thisday/AriseTv),Organized Private Sector, (OPS/Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry-LCCI) body of lawyers (NBA)and the academia (LBS),but also to his host,Chatham House that was allegedly ambushed and therefore has reportedly expressed indignation at Mr Tinubu’s resort to delegating the task of answering questions about the points that he canvassed in his presentation through surrogates.

    A spokesman of the frontline United Kingdom,UK foreign policy think tank-Chatham House reportedly made the following statement of disavowal:

    “Yesterday’s event was not the norm and our Chair was not notified in advance that Mr Tinubu would be delegating questions,”

    And Dele Alake,Director of Strategic Communications for the APC Presidential Campaign Council,PCC has pushed back in a channels television interview:
    “This is one of the innovations of Asiwaju Tinubu. Don’t forget that one of his main solid strengths has been identifying talents,”
    “Anybody who has his head properly screwed on his head would know that Asiwaju is the primus inter pares in team building; that is what he sought to display”

    Despite,Mr Alake’s strenuous efforts at justifying the outlandish approach adopted by his principal as innovative,it is highly likely that most Nigerians would disagree with his logic.

    But l guess he had to do what he had to do to keep his candidate in the reckoning for the presidential context that would be determined on February 25,2023 which comes up a little more than sixty(60) days ahead.

    Nevertheless,the stark reality is that after his Chatham House fiasco,Tinubu’s chances at succeeding Mohammadu Buhari next year has dipped.And no one needs a sooth sayer to affirm that the ‘Renewed Hope 2023’ campaign which is how APC presidential candidate’s campaign has branded itself,is now at its nadir.

    The proof or evidence that Tinubu’s Chatham House outing did not go down well amongst Nigerian people,particularly the youth demography is the avalanche of bizarre and ridiculous memes and skits parodying him after the fiasco in both traditional and social media platforms.

    And being a maestro,Mr Dele Alake recognized the dark clouds and the ensuing storm.Then he decided to spin the political higgledy piggledy committed by his principal as a consequence of his outsourcing responsibility to answer questions arising from the ideas that he espoused in his presentation by ingeniously trying to cast it as an innovative leadership ingenuity being injected into the political ecosystem by his boss,and which would soon be emulated by other leaders.

    But has the attempt to spin the Chatham House debacle been successful?
    I think not.

    At this juncture,for the sake of equity,it is appropriate that we put Asiwaju Tinubu’s performance at Chatham House in a crucible to determine whether it has further positively or negatively impacted his current race to Aso Rock Villa.

    And l would like to do so by engaging in a comparison of then candidate Mohammadu Buhari’s presentation in the same Uk foreign affairs forum,Chatham House on February 25,2015 for the same purpose of winning the endorsement of the international community with candidate Tinubu’s December 5,2022 appearance seven (7) and half (1/2)years after.

    As it may be recalled, when then-candidate Buhari in February 2015 attended Chatham House forum after the initial date for the general elections in Nigeria was postponed for six (6)weeks,his candidacy received a bounce as it was an opportunity for him to disabuse the minds of the international community whose endorsement he needed,but who were skeptical at that time about his sordid past as a military dictator in the twenty (20) months that he had ruled Nigeria from December 1983 to August 1985.

    After his apparently convincing presentation where he portrayed himself as a former dictator who has become a born-again democrat, his audience was bowled over by his seeming sincerity in seeking forgiveness for his human rights abuses during his past dictatorial rule which he vowed would not happen again in his reincarnation.

    It is on record that candidate Buhari’s image soared in popularity with the international endorsements from both the United Kingdom, Uk and United States of America,USA who even dispatched their respective foreign affairs minister and Secretary of State,as the case may be ,on missions to Nigeria,enabling then opposition party candidate Buhari to win the presidency a couple of weeks after.
    To be specific, Buhari was at Chatham House on the 25th of February after the election scheduled to hold on February 14th had been postponed to March 28th/29th 2015.

    By way of putting things in context,I would like to urge readers to take note of the circumstances that surrounded Buhari’s Chatham House appearance which is that (1) it happened after the election was postponed to another date and (2) it was also an opportunity for Buhari to redeem his image of a dictator in the optics of Nigeria’s foreign partners.

    In benchmarking the value of Buhari and Tinubu Chatham House engagements, there are also more nuanced factors that could be be recognized as being contributory to Buhari’s better and more positive rating compared to Tinubu’s Chatham House debacle.

    For instance,it was believed in some quarters that APC working with Chatham House ensured that only Buhari’s supporters and a few members of foreign captive audience were allowed into the auditorium to give it a dash of foreign colour and it enabled Buhari make the speech without facing the challenge of answering genuine questions via a robust audience participation,hence he escaped the excoriation that has defined Tinubu’s dismal Chatham House performance.

    So,in sharp contrast to Buhari’s engagement,Tinubu’s presentation at Chatham House seven(7) and half (1/2) years after differs not only in circumstances with respect to the political dynamics in Nigeria,but also in the composition of the audience in Chatham House and the context in terms of question and answer format.

    Also to be taken into consideration is the fact that the current APC presidential candidate made his appearance on December 5 this year which is nearly three months to the day of the presidential polls coming up on February 25 next year.
    That is quite unlike the case of Buhari who was at Chatham House on February 25, 2015. That is barely one month to the date of election and after the initial date for the elections was shifted by six (6) weeks from February 14 to March 28/29,2015.

    The prevailing circumstances at that time had given Buhari momentum because it was assumed that the opposition party’s candidate was being targeted by then ruling PDP that was presumably worried that if election should hold on the earlier scheduled date,it would loose the election to Buhari.

    Arising from the above,the sudden change of election date created an atmosphere of apprehension as most Nigerians were wondering whether or not the election would hold and such sentiments helped to generate and hold aloft the momentum for Buhari’s candidacy thus galvanizing and propelling the opposition,APC into prominence.

    Given that the circumstances surrounding Tinubu’s Chatham House presentation compared to Buhari’s are different in the sense that 2023 election date has not been shifted:instead president Buhari has been emphatic that it is sacrosanct,just as the lndependent National Electoral Commission,INEC chairman,Professor Mahmood Yakubu has also been exuding similar confidence by harping on the fact that elections must hold despite the attacks on INEC personnel and facilities;the outcomes of both Buhari and Tinubu Chatham House attendance had to also be distinct from each other.

    From the forgoing analysis,unlike Buhari who the visit to Chatham House lifted in 2015,Tinubu’s Chatham House parley accelerated his sinking in the eyes of the electorate as the so called innovative leadership style that his handlers claim he was showcasing by dodging the questions posed to him in order to mask his suspected degenerating mental health situation,turned out to be more of a political death knell than a masterstroke that it was meant to be.

    In other words,not allowing Tinubu respond to questions posed to him after the presentation only validated the fears by most Nigerians that he was suffering from some mental and physical debilities as reflected by the goofs and gaffes that he had been making during his public outings in the course of his campaigns in the past twelve (12) months or thereabout.

    As such he is being adjudged particularly by our youths as being too physically and mentally unfit to rule our country which is a pity for a man who has openly declared that it is his turn (emi lo kan) to be the president of Nigeria.

    And in all fairness,Mr Tinubu has truly been in the political hustings in over three decades during which he has served both as a senator and a state governor.

    But unfortunately he is about to fail not on account of not being politically sagacious,(of which he is a legend) sadly,it is owing to his alleged failing health -mentally and physically as well as lack of transparency in his origin ,(place and time of birth) educational records in his childhood (primary and secondary school) which are mired in controversy.

    The above mysteries constitute the formidable burden that is hanging over him like a menacing albatross.

    From reports so far gleaned from the media, Mr. Peter Obi, Labour Party, LP candidate seems to be the next invitee to Chatham House. Waziri Atiku Abubakar of PDP and Dr. Musa Rabiu Kwakwanso of NNPP, including lNEC chairman, Professor Mahmood Yakubu are also scheduled to follow in that order.

    How a UK foreign policy think tank has assumed the stature of a vetting agency for aspiring Nigerian presidents, boggles my mind.

    Hence, Nigerians should be curious to know if the presidential candidates in Nigeria’s peer countries in Africa such as South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ethiopia, or even Ghana challenge each other to dare to visit the US or attend Chatham House sessions in the UK for authentication as they do in our clime.

    On pages 331 and 332 of my book, “Becoming president of Nigeria. A Citizen’s Guide”, in an article that l wrote and published in the mass media in September 2021,and which was reproduced in the book,l had predicted that the contest for the presidency of Nigeria would be between Waziri Atiku Abubakar of PDP and APC’s Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. That was long before the party primaries were held.

    And my position has not changed about 2023 presidential contest being a two (2) horse race between the APC and PDP which is a projection that l made more or less two (2) years before it happened.

    However, arising from Tinubu’s Chatham House chaos,l am now inclined to wager a bet that the 2023 presidential election would most likely be won by PDP’s Waziri Atiku Abubakar.

    While l am not unmindful of the impressive and significant forays that the Labor Party, LP has made in the political space, nevertheless, as the 2023 political assizes have crossed over into the critical last three months stage,Mr. Obi is daily looking like a phantom and a mere internet sensation as he has no actionable manifesto or structure to win the presidency.

    It is not surprising that the long-awaited LP manifesto has been Pooh-poohed by both the PDP and APC presidential campaign councils for lacking in substance. As such, it has exposed the party and its presidential candidate’s programs and policies as a sort of gobbledygook.

    The assessment validates the belief by Mr. Obi’s critics that his postulations about lack of progress and development in Nigeria are beginning to sound like that of former head of the anti-corruption agency in Kenya and Dean of Law faculty in Kabarak law school in Kenya, Professor Patrick Lumumba’s sanctimonious indignation about corruption being the clog of progress in Africa,yet he has never been able to really proffer viable solutions.

    Although, Professor Lumumba has the gift of the garb and says all the correct things that resonate with the masses,he never has actionable solutions to remedy the leadership maladies that he ascribes to African countries and their leaders.

    With his talks increasingly being listened to for it’s comical or entertainment values rather than lessons that could be useful in fighting graft, simply because it is always full of high hifalutin, fantastic and sanctimonious expressions, he is no longer getting invited to give talks at anti-corruption conferences around Africa where he used to earn honorarium.

    Although, the LP and it’s Presidential candidate have shown some spunk by practically taking control of the youth generation and the youth at heart with their media savviness driven by youth prowess and passion in the deployment of social media which Barack Obama leveraged in the US in 2008 to become the first black man to be president of the greatest country in the world, and with which William Ruto, as deputy president to Uhuru Kenyatta in the East African nation of Kenya also rode on earlier this year to clinch the presidency of his country against all odds; it remains to be seen how a similar scenario can manifest in Nigeria without the fundamentals that made it happen in the US and Kenya.

    Perhaps owing to some omission or commission, the analysts who reference the two (2) youths facilitated victories in the US and Kenya to justify their speculation that Peter Obi would emerge as president of Nigeria next year, ignore or fail to recognize the salient facts that Obama contested on the platform of the Democratic Party which is already established with solid tentacles and taproots all over the US and Ruto was an incumbent deputy president to Kenyatta. So he was already a political force nationally and it is even he that was instrumental to Kenyatta becoming president in 2013-2022.

    Ruto only fell out with the president in the dying days of their tenure and formed UDA with which he and his allies contested against Raila Odinga of ODM who the ruling Jubilee Party led by then president Kenyatta had decided to support instead of his deputy, William Ruto.

    In fact, deputy president Ruto and president Kenyatta falling out in Kenya reminds me of Nigeria’s president Olusegun Obasanjo and vice president Atiku Abubakar face off during their second term in office (2003-7) when both the president and vice president engaged in scandalous and nasty fights that attracted massive opprobrium to then ruling PDP.

    The only difference is that in Nigeria, instead of Atiku Abubakar forming a new political party or converting PDM -a political movement inherited from his mentor, late Shehu Yar’dua into a registered political party, he hunkered down in PDP and got locked down in court by Obasanjo for a long period.

    He only prevailed in court at the tail end when it was too late to be able to mobilize support for his presidential ambition in the 2007 election.
    But in Kenya, Ruto was not hindered by such encumbrances,as he quickly floated a political platform ODA with which he contested and was able to against all odds, win the president Kenyatta backed Raila Odinga by a razor-thin margin.

    Since the political fundamentals that were present in both Obama and Ruto’s ascension to the presidency of the US and Kenya respectively are absent in the case of Peter Obi and LP in Nigeria which is a party without deep roots,just as Obi had no national name recognition until 2019 presidential election when he was picked as vice presidential candidate to Atiku Abubakar in PDP and about six (6)months ago when he became the presidential flag bearer of LP, the permutations that Obi would win the 2023 presidency on account of youth power,diaspora support and online political campaign rhetorics without a ward councilor, chairman of local government area,commissioner, house of assembly, house of representatives, senator, minister and governor as members of the Labor Patty are in my considered opinion, drawn from my understanding of basic dynamics of politics as outlined above,” attempting to extract water from a rock, which is a mission impossible.
    Incidentally, Peter Obi can relate to the impossible task of water being squeezed out of rock because his nickname or moniker is Okute in lgbo dialect translated as rock.

    In light of the circumstances outlined above, the political stage appears to be set for the candidate of the PDP, Waziri Atiku Abubakar to seize.
    More so because president Buhari whom he had squared up within 2019 with remarkable number of votes garnered (PMB’s estimated 15m versus AA’s nearly 11m) is not on the ballot in the 2023 elections. Having fought gallantly in the last presidential contest, in 2019, Waziri Atiku Abubakar is the only one amongst the three front-liners that has tested and tried as a presidential candidate.

    Therefore, the imminent return of the main opposition PDP and its candidate Atiku Abubakar to Aso Rock Villa in 2023 which is eight (8) years after it’s ouster is predicated on the belief that amongst the three leading presidential candidates-Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, who have been traversing the stormy waters of Nigerian politics seeking for the mandate of the electorate to be the next number one (1) Aso Rock Villa occupant, Atiku Abubakar appears to be on terra firma.
    That is despite the present and real danger posed by Rivers state governor, Nyesom Wike led G-5 or Furious Famous Five Governors,(FFFG) whose rebellion within the PDP is threatening to upend the ascendancy of the main opposition PDP into the apogee of power at the center, Aso Rock Villa if their grievances festering like an open sore are not addressed.

    In the absence of further threats from the ruling APC candidate whose fate appears to have been sealed, not only by the handicap of his questionable ancestry and duplicitous primary and secondary schools educational pedigree, but also his seeming physical and mental impairment which critics aver as being confirmed by his farming out of the responsibility of answering questions on a presentation that he had made to a global audience of eminent personalities at Chatham House on December 5, and compounded by his avoidance of debates or town hall meetings in Nigeria.
    Given the above scenario, the PDP that only exited Aso Rock Villa barely seven (7) and half (1/2) years ago,and still has the blueprint of how to get back to power encrypted in its DNA,(as reflected by its solid and robust party structures nationwide) is therefore poised to retake the Villa-presidential seat of power with Waziri Atiku Abubakar at the helm of affairs, without much ado.

    The political tide may not change for Tinubu unless in less than 90 days period left before the presidential election, he tenders a certificate of clean health from a credible medical doctor or institution, subjects himself to public scrutiny of his mental capacity via personal participation (not by proxy or docking)in public debates, and gives a convincing account with verifiable records of his life from cradle in Nigeria to the time he commenced attending high school in Chicago, down to his enrollment for his undergraduate studies in the state university of Chicago, Illinois for his degree in accountancy and return home to Nigeria as an accountant with Mobil oil company.

    Those are fundamental records that are presently foggy and need clarity.

    As all the aforementioned requisites have not been tendered in the past one year since he threw his hat into the political ring,it looks like an impossibility that it would materialize in the less than three months left for politicking before election D-Day.

    But in politics nothing is sacrosanct.

    So, it would be foolhardy to write off Asiwaju Tinubu by assuming that he can not get his mojo back. But for now Atiku Abubakar holds the ace.

    By the same token, PDP and its presidential standard bearer Waziri Atiku Abubakar can not afford to take their eyes off the ball by being complacent and assuming that February 25,2023 would merely be a day of coronation, because as the saying goes,it is not yet Uhuru and it is not over until it is really over.

    This presupposes that it must put its house in order so that the party can be on a more sound footing in order to truly be the first to breast the tape in the race for the presidency of Nigeria, 2023.

  • The Donald Trump Magnus Onyibe Doesn’t Know – By Magnus Onyibe

    The Donald Trump Magnus Onyibe Doesn’t Know – By Magnus Onyibe

    For the sake of transparency,I need to be upfront about the origin of the title of this essay.
    It is not coined by me but by an angry reader of my last article on the immediate past United States of America,USA president,Donald J Trump.

    The piece was titled: “The Donald Trump That Africans Don’t Know” and it was first published in my column on the back page of Daily Independent newspaper on Tuesday 22 and subsequently on the back page of Thisday newspaper of Friday 25th November,2022 as well as across multiple online media platforms.

    Perhaps,owing to the fact that a stereotype opinion had long been formed about the 45th President of the US following several years of unmitigated public relations faux pax on the part of Mr Trump who never bothers to correct some misrepresentation of facts about him,my presentation of the persona of the former president of the US which is inconsistent with the mindset already shaped and propagated by a session of the Western media about Mr Trump, generated a mixed bag of vile and vicious attacks as well as enlightening and encouraging comments.

    The anti Trump sentiments expressed against the article and my further comments are the subject of this follow up opinion piece.

    So basically,the purpose or raison detre for this further intervention is to shed more light on the areas of contention via the reproduction of the points of view of those that vehemently disagree with me on the need to engage with the 45th president of the US who is poised to be the 47th by contesting for the office next year when the incumbent president,Joe Biden’s first tenure would be over.

    As earlier stated,one particular critic made a case that l do not know Mr Trump well enough to warrant my trying to market him to blacks in the US and Africans on the continent,simply because they have already formed the opinion that Mr Trump is a racist and anti Africa.

    It is a notion that l had tried to,and l am still aiming at changing by throwing more light on my good intentions which is to create a rapport between the former US president Trump and black Americans in particular and Africans in general for future mutual benefits to Nigeria and Africa as a whole.

    In embarking on the mission,l am drawing on the conventional wisdom that the road to power is via diplomacy.That is why l have set for myself the task of working assiduously to mend the broken fence between the probable president of the US from next year via disabusing the minds of those who have literally declared him a persona-non-grata in Africa simply owing to the vile comment about Africa attributed to him.

    These gentlemen and perhaps ladies that read the original article in which l tried to correct some myths about Mr Trump’s comments on Africa and Africans by putting things in context,strongly disagree with my submissions.
    Their dissension was expressed in writing via the feedback platform of Thisday newspaper-Disqus.

    Is it not astonishing that none of the commentators contradicted the fact that former president Trump’s policies and programs (2016-2020) had positively impacted the lives of African Americans in the US and people from the continent of Africa?
    l had elaborated on the policies and programs implemented by Mr Trump in the article in question.

    But rather than dwell on the former president’s pro African American policies that have positively impacted the black race in the course of Mr Trump’s four (4) years tenure ,the aggrieved responders to my last article in which l was advocating for the shifting of the relationship between ex president Trump from winter to summer modes,were apparently too piqued by his alleged negative comment about Africa that they were only prepared to judge Mr Trump on that basis,while blocking their minds to whatever good outcomes that his policies might have engendered.

    What that suggests is that the critics are more interested in squaring up on the basis of bruised ego of Africans in light of the alleged demeaning comment about the continent by the 45th president of the US,than pursue the goal of befriending the likely president of the richest and most politically and economically strategic country in the world for the progress of Africa.

    In fact,my agenda for proposing a thawing of the frosty relationship between the 2024 presidential hopeful,Donald Trump and American blacks in particular as well as Africans in general is self evident,so it can not be overemphasized.

    Now,I am not unaware of the possibility that it may be a long shot for the former president to return to the White House next year in light of the political and legal battles currently staring the 45th US president in the face.

    But no other candidate except Mr Trump has thrown his hat into the ring for the presidency in 2024.And given his high capacity to surprise pundits as no one gave him any chance to win the presidency in 2016,Mr Trump in my estimation remains the front runner in the 2024 presidential race in the US.

    Thirteen (13) number of comments had been recorded on Thisday newspaper Disqus platform in response to my article as at the cut-off point of last Friday December 2,2023.

    Six (6) number of comments were one or two sentences or concurrence of previous comments which l would not respond to because they do not merit such attention.

    So l am sharing with readers seven (7)comments,some of which were copious and enlightening.

    And l have reproduced them below along with my additional comments with the expectation that they would help to further illuminate the points that l tried to convey in my piece which has elicited a good dose of criticisms and accolades.

    Off course the commentators did so anonymously,meaning that their true identifies are hidden.

    The most likely reason for allowing folks to make comments on Disqus platform under a smokescreen is because it allows the authors the boldness to bare their fangs in no holds bared manner.

    That way,since the proverbial ox that they may be gored would not know their identify,they would have no fear of consequences for their often mean comments.

    Usually,vulgar words are deployed.So l would like to forewarn or make readers aware of the graphic nature of the language employed by placing a sort of caveat emptor on the comments being reproduced.

    To maintain the originality,there is no editing of the comments and they are also reproduced in the order in which they were posted in Disqus platform.

    The first (1) commentator identifies his /herself as ‘fakindum’
    Below is his/her point of view:

    “This is a load of shit.A failed apologia for Donald Trump. This animal said to my hearing that he preferred immigrants from “Norway” to those from “shit hole countries”. Now this hired writer is slicing and dicing his statements to show he loves Africa. How can it be a (sic) honour to be loved by this regrettable human?”

    MY RESPONSE:
    The piece is not an apologia for Mr Trump as the angry man has alluded.It is aimed at enlightening Africans about former US president Trump and also bringing him up to date about Africa.
    As the saying goes: it is the light that the host brings to see the pilgrim in the dark that also enables the pilgrim see his host.
    In other words,shinning the light on ex president Donald Trump would enable the potential president of the US understand Africa and indeed Nigeria better and vice versa.

    I need not emphasis the infinite number of positive developments that could accrue to Nigeria if Mr Trump were to return to the White House in 2024 after gaining a better understanding of Nigeria and indeed Africa.

    Worryingly,going by his comment,this fellow appears to have met Mr Trump face-to-face and has an axe to grind with him.
    And the assumption above is derived from the choice of words used against him,which makes it obvious that the commentator is very bitter.

    Yes,Mr Trump stated that he would prefer immigrants from Norway to those from ‘shit hole countries’.
    But it is critical that we put into context the comparison between African and Norway,so that it can be better understood.

    The truth is that Mr Trump had just hosted the prime minister of Norway the previous day in the White House before senator Dick Durbin led a team to the White House to discuss a sort of amnesty for undocumented Africans already in the US.

    And his meeting with the Norwegian prime minister who he was very likely impressed by,might still have been fresh on his mind,hence he made the comparison which portrayed him in bad light because he should have controlled his emotions. But Mr Trump is like an open book and an unconventional president.

    Being a Freudian slip,the White House walked back the comment.
    That indicates to me that former president Trump might have been remorseful when he realized how offensive the utterance turned out to be.

    Arising from the above,suggesting that Africa should be bellicose after an apology had been tendered even though it was not made directly,is stretching the concept of self assertion too far.

    Rather than take a dog-in-the-manger posture,I would prefer to be guided by the wise counsel intrinsic in the book: Warrior Of Light by Paulo Coelho, a Brazilian novelist.
    “A Warrior of Light values a child’s eyes because they are able to look at the world without bitterness. When he wants to find out if the person beside him is worthy of his trust, he tries to see him as a child would”

    In any case ,which country in the world would welcome the rejects of other societies into their country as Mr Trump has categorized the illegal immigrants into the US?

    To buttress my point about the universality of xenophobia or racism,l referenced how Ghana and Nigeria that are supposed to be Sister countries have been expelling and counter expelling each other’s nationals since the mid 1960s on multiple occasions depending on the economic fortunes or misfortunes of both countries.

    With respect to the other allegation against me by the commentator “Now this hired writer is slicing and dicing his statements to show he loves Africa.”, it needs to be emphasized that the article in question “ The Donald Trump Africans Do Not Know”was written in the collective interest of Africa and Africans.

    And it is a pity that fellow Nigerians find it impossible to believe that some people can do things altruistically.

    The underlying reason for the negative mindset of most Nigerians on corruption may be because graft has become such a major issue in our society. In fact it has become so suffused with brazen acts of graft by leaders in public offices from the top of the ladder to the followers at the bottom of the rung,to the extent that the long suffering masses have had no option than to become obsessed with the suspicion that every action or motive by anyone must be dubious.

    Which is why I would like to remind the angry fellow that decided to assail my integrity and personality,that in the nearly thirty years that I have engaged in writing and publishing in the mass media critical analysis of policies of government and the society at large,the public officers and private sector practitioners that l have focused on,ranging from president Olusegun Obasanjo ,Umar Yar’dua of blessed memory,Goodluck Jonathan to Mohammadu Buhari,former senate president Bukola Saraki to my former boss and brother,James lbori,ex governor of Delta state;l have never solicited or received gratifications from anyone of them.

    The same applies to Godwin Emefiele Central Bank of Nigeria,CBN governor, Aliko Dangote,the richest man in Africa,Jim Ovia who is the founder of Zenithbank group and Mike Adenuga ,founder of GLO telecoms as well as Tony Elumelu,chairman of Heirs holdings and founder of UBA.

    And I have at some point or the other,had the privilege of writing personality profiles about the aforementioned eminent personalities which are featured in my soon to be released book: Leading From The Stteets.Media Interventions By A Public Intellectual (1999-2019) which is a compendium of seventy seven (77) of my published articles since the return of multi party democracy in Nigeria,plus afterwords on the topics discussed in each of the seven (7)chapters of the book written by renown authorities on the issues covered in the respective chapters.

    And none of identified Very Important Personalities,VIPs has offered me gratification,neither have l solicited such from them.

    It needs being emphasized that my interest in trying to mend the broken fence between former president Trump of the US and Africa is a patriotic gesture aimed at serving the best interest of all.

    As the saying goes: it is the same light that is shined to see a stranger that also enables he/she see his host.
    In other words,shinning the light on Donald Trump would enable the potential president of the US understand Nigeria and Africa better and vice versa.

    It is needless emphasizing the infinite number of positive developments that could accrue to Nigeria and indeed Africa if Mr Trump were to return to the White House in 2024.

    The optimism for the good fortune alluded to above is reflected by the ground breaking achievements in boosting the relationship between the Jews and Arabs in the Middle East via assistance from his son-Inlaw (husband to Ivanka)Jared Kushner,during Mr Trump’s tenure as president in the white house.And I laid it all out in the original piece which l urge interested readers to read or conduct more research on the subject online.

    The veritable accomplishments in the Israeli /Arab relationship in the Middle East are verifiable pointers to the warm relationship that the US could have with Africa and indeed Nigeria in the event that Mr Trump becomes the 47th president.

    The second (2)commentator who identifies himself as ‘American Abroad’ made the following comment:
    “In all fairness, original first-person reports from the Oval Office meeting, as first revealed by Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois, was that President Donald Trump remarked, in reference to African immigrants, “Those shitholes send us the people that they don’t want.”

    He absolved Mr Trump by admitting that “He apparently did not specifically mention country, countries or continent. That precise quotation had been fact-checked contemporaneously several times in the past. To otherwise deny the obvious, or attempt to sugarcoat Mr Trump’s extensive history of racial instigation and crass misogyny is disingenuous.

    Furthermore, if you begin a serious intervention with an easily disprovable falsehood, it makes it extraordinarily difficult to give any credence to the rest of your homily, regardless of its underlying merits.”
    Thereafter he gave a caution note : “Journalist, kindly respect the intelligence of your readers- and your own claim to dignity, if not veracity.”
    MY RESPONSE:
    Clearly,this commentator did his homework.So he is not glib because he took time to ferret out the true and correct statement made by Mr Trump which has been misrepresented as: “Africa is a shithole country “.
    But he misunderstood me by assuming that l was making a case that Trump did not make a disparaging comment about Africa.That is far from the truth. I simply contextualized what Mr Trump said while also emphasizing that he was misquoted.

    Thankfully he acknowledged that there are merits in the case that l tried to make in the piece,but he was disdainful in his
    presumption that l was denying that Mr Trump made a disparaging comment about Blacks and Africans.
    ‘American Abroad’ if you are reading this, thank you for digging up the truth.
    We are both on the same page,but the only exception is that l disagree with you that Mr Trump should be crucified for being an unusual politician.We need to build bridges as opposed to burning them.

    The third(3) commentator goes by the name ‘Oparafo Ugakwu’ who wrote the following:
    “This level of low self esteem is stunning.It would be easier for Mr. Onyibe to lift the Olympus than to convince this forum that Donald Trump is not who he is. With this type of mentality from the so called Nigerian intelligentsia, the nation will continue to be ridiculed in the international community. Given his background,Mr. Onyibe could easily be made the Nation’s External Affairs Minister or an Ambassador, positions that would be readily exploited by demagogues and racists in power like Trump. Is there a better way to feed the beast?”
    MY RESPONSE:
    Again this a case of a victim of closed mind or mentality that is not willing or ready to see things beyond the jaundiced view that he has received.

    That is unlike the previous commentator ‘American Abroad’ who made the effort to look beyond the surface by digging up the correct comment made by former president Trump in the White House to a particular audience.

    What l have done is what a foreign affairs minister or ambassador does to build healthy and beneficial relationship between his country and strategic partners.The fact is that l seized an opportunity of meeting with the 45th president of the US planning to be the 47th by next year to see if l could build a bridge of friendship between him and my country and continent which he apparently knows pretty little about.

    What ‘Oparaku Ogakwu’ may not be aware of,is a principle called strategic engagement in international relations or diplomacy.It is less about bluster or self bloated image and fragile egos.

    But more about recognizing a challenge or opportunity and continuously engaging with the other party so that one can be abreast of the developments on their side with a view to taking proactive measures to forestall or embrace actions that could further jeopardize or strengthen existing relationships,as the case may be.

    Imagine the US not remaining engaged with North Korea or lran because of the so called “high self esteem’ of former president Trump or current president Joe Biden.
    It is a no brainer to figure out that the world would be under more serious threats of a nuclear Armageddon.

    The truth is that l have identified a window of opportunity for Africa to warm up to the potential next president of the US, Mr Trump and l am exploring it by trying to smoothen the current fractured relationship that some Africans have with him through illumination of the differences causing the friction and correcting the wrong impressions.

    The fourth (4) commentator who identifies as ‘Kawhi’ had the following to say:
    “Wow Magnus, you’re obviously star-struck! The arrogant presumption that you know someone after a casual encounter at your friend’s daughter’s wedding is mind-boggling and I think the title of your article should be ‘The Donald Trump that Magnus Onyibe Don’t Know’. That you needed most of the article to weave a narrative of Donald Trump’s mindset and supposed thoughts,based only on a casual comment that Nigeria has a lot of oil (which an average fool in the world knows), is a pointer to your own inclination. In describing him as a business titan, you even capitalized the letter T in the word titan!”
    He continued:
    “To know the Trump that most Americans know (after all they are his primary constituents), go read the submissions of his closest associates including his personal lawyers and those who served in the highest levels in his administration, and his family members.
    Perhaps no better words have been used to describe Trump’s extraordinary moral and character failings than those by his longest serving Chief of Staff,General John Kelly after the events of January 6, 2021 (the definitive and most consequential event of his presidency, which you did not even bother to mention);”

    And concluded with the admonition or wise counsel which l agree with:
    “We need to look infinitely harder at who we elect to any office in our land. At the office seeker’s character, at their morals, at their ethical record, their integrity, their honesty, their flaws,what they have said about women and minorities, why they are asking office in the first place, and only then consider the policies they espouse.”
    My RESPONSE:
    As readers might have noticed,he is the ‘copyright owner’ of the title of this article-“The Donald Trump That Magnus Onyibe Doesn’t Know”
    Obviously,he wants me to only see things from the prism of Trump,s enemies or traducers that he listed (sour grapes) and neglect the perspectives of the over 74,222,958 Americans who believe in his politics and voted for him in the 2020 presidential election which amounts to 46.8% of the votes cast compared to the 81,283,098 vote or 51.3% cast for the winner,president Joe Biden.

    He took umbrage at what he termed my casual meeting with Mr Trump and tried to savage me for assuming that such a casual encounter qualifies me to claim that l know him.

    Is Ogakwu aware that sometimes it takes only a game of golf between a job seeker and a potential employer for 
a top CEO to get hired ?

    In fact,most ministers in Nigeria are hardly previously known to the president and ditto for governors and their appointees as commissioners.

    It might also interest the fellow who identifies as Ogakwu to know that I first met President Trump at his golf course in West Palm Beach,and the second time at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida during which l had significant conversations with him.

    Ogakwu also stated that l was star-struck.
    Who would not be ?
    I have never met,wined and dinned with any president of the US,how much more a very charismatic and consequential one like Mr Trump. Before him,I had only attended an event where former president Bill Clinton was the keynote speaker and l didn’t have the privilege of having a conversation with him.

    After all when our president Buhari met then President Trump in the White House when he was on a state visit during which he sealed the contract for the supply of super Tucano jets in 2018,he is not on record to have wined and dinned with him.
    So why would l pretend that doing so with former president Trump did not excite me?

    ‘Bolovi’ is the name by which the fifth (5)commentator identifies himself.
    Below is what he wrote:
    “Thank you Mr. Onyibe. I was born in Nigeria and now a US citizen. President Trump did more for blacks than the first black President.The media went after him because they could not control him. The media made-up negative stories on him, and simple-minded, low information and emotional people believed it.”
    MY RESPONSE:
    Thank you too’Bolovi’ for your unbiased assessment.

    The reality that we must all come to terms with is the fact that Mr Trump is a non traditional politician and some Americans are still trying to wrap their heads around his unique way of playing politics.

    Evidently,his brand of politics is supported by at least 46.3 percent of US voters who elected Mr Trump as their president in 2016.

    And apparently,Mr Trump does not really care much about public opinion and that reality is a validation of the belief that he is an unconventional politician.

    Take for instance ,his recent invitation to lunch in his Mar-La-Go resort,the artist formerly known Kanye West now simply Ye who is an antisemite and Nick Fuentes a widely known antisemite and holocaust denier. That action basically validates the fact that Mr Trump is a none conformist.

    Also,it would seem as if Mr Trump courts controversy. And if experience teaches us anything,that approach to politics works for him because all these hooplas may not count against him on the day elections.

    The sixth (6)commentator that goes by the name:’Mystic mallam’ wrote the following:
    “Mr. Magnus Onyibe,what’s your point – are you trying to persuade us that Trump loves Africa and Africans, that he’s not a rabid and bigoted racist? If that’s your objective, you have failed woefully, why? You have no idea whom Trump is, or what he represents to America’s Alt-right. Is hero-worship what they taught you at the Fletcher School you never stop touting as suffix to your name?”
    MY RESPONSE:
    I am not making a case that Mr Trump loves Africans.Rather my objective is to bridge the gap between Trump and African/blacks in the US through dialogue that could engender a more cordial relationship for mutual benefits.

    The justification for my intervention has been made in my earlier responses.
    Nevertheless,as we all know,racism against blacks in the US and neo colonialism against Africans did not start with Trump.It commenced with the enslavement of Africans by the Europeans and indeed the Western world over 400 years ago.

    As a way of healing the wounds of the past,some states and cities,in the US have started to pay reparations to black Americans.

    That indicates that racism is not a Trump creation,but he prefers to deal with it frontally than the old ways of pretending in Washington,DC to love Africans by traditional political actors via tokenism in the public,while working against blacks during closed door policy meetings.
    lt is an attitude that Trump does not subscribe to hence he expressed his views about illegal African immigrants publicly.

    The commentator also went low and cheeky by writing :”is hero worship what they taught you in Fletcher school that you never stop touting as suffix to your name”

    Well,I am a proud alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy which is my alma mater.

    Instead of being offended by the snide comment,l would like to enlighten my traducer that Fletcher is also the alma mater of former foreign affairs minister of Nigeria,Professor Bolaji Akinyemi who attended the school for his masters degree in 1966 before heading to the university of Oxford,United Kingdom,Uk for his PhD degree.
    And the erudite professor never seizes to identify with his Fletcher pedigree in his public appearances.

    And my good friends,Dr Rueben Abati ,Thisday newspaper columnist and AriseTv anchorman,as well as Mr Segun Adeniyi,Editorial board chairman of Thisday newspaper who is also a columnist,also identify themselves in similar fashion.

    As a matter of fact,Dr Abati takes exception to being addressed without prefixing his name as an academic doctor and Adeniyi clearly states his role as chairman of Thisday newspaper editorial board under his name.
    Same also applies to Dr Mike Ozekhome,who also writes a column for LAWYER,a Thisday newspaper weekly pull out with all his academic titles in array.

    So it is a matter of style or branding if you like.

    Is it not curious that the commentator who scoffed at me for using the suffix of my alma mater in my media Interventions did not express reservations about the fact that l also include that l was a cabinet member of delta state government (2003-2007) and that l am an entrepreneur.?
    Apparently’Mystic Mallam’ is ready to live with that.

    As for ‘Reem Haak’ who is the seventh (7)commentator, his view is:
    “Donald Trump hates the way the Democrats patronise Africans and black people generally.What is the point of selecting a few blacks into Democrat’s government to convey the impression that Biden loves black people.Other African Americans keep insisting they are still largely marginalized. “
    He emphasized that “Joe Biden’s understading of how to help the Africans is to allow them invade America.Biden believes in the system of exploitation of Africa and indeed Nigeria ,just because some Nigerians live and work in America.”
    Raheem Haak argued further that
    “ IT is only Donald Trump who has campaigned favourably for Africans and Nigerians developing their own countries just like Americans are doing to their own country.
    Continuing,he made the point that “Joe Biden believes that America will carry the responsibilities of Nigeria through aid. Democrats release financial aid to Nigeria and it strengthens America’s right to dictate to Nigeria politically. “
    His opinion is that: “So far, it is only the Republicans who have admitted that aid to Africa has been disastrous.This was the admission of George Bush after Africans complained that aid is always stolen by the officials.The Democrats and Joe Biden don’t even entertain such thoughts let alone act accordingly.
    They believe Africans and Nigerians cannot think for themselves.”

    In Raheem Haak’s conclusion “Donald Trump does not believe in the politics of patron-client relationship which has undermined the development of Nigeria till date.”
    He then advocated that “The way out for Nigerians is to encourage politicians like Donald Trump who hate looters to become president. That is the only way Nigeria can be free from this needless crushing poverty devastating millions in Nigeria.”

    I could not have put it better in an environment where a lot of us are not keen on thinking out of the box,but prefer to internalize and even swear by information that we did not check the motive of the purveyor to see if it had been tainted to suit an ulterior motive which may not be in the best interest of our country.

    Obviously,most of the commentators views are shaped by what they have been seeing and hearing on CNN.

    May l suggest that they should also spare some time to watch Fox News,the preferred television station of Republicans to see the other points of view to form a balanced opinion of Mr Trump?

    I am not unmindful of the fact that the approach that l took for this follow up piece is unorthodox.But just as columnists sometimes adopt drama or satire style of writing when commenting on sensitive issues,the style that l have adopted is akin to democratization of free speech.

    It is a Question and Answer format which l am hoping would help expand the sphere of knowledge of readers in order to enable them have broader,as opposed to pigeon hole perspectives of the important national and international issue of forging stronger relationships with the US which is usually accomplished mainly when they have located a military base in a country of strategic interest to them.

     

    Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
    To continue with this conversation,pls visit www.magnum.ng

  • What And Who Are Shaping Nigeria’s 2023 Polls? – By Magnus Onyibe

    What And Who Are Shaping Nigeria’s 2023 Polls? – By Magnus Onyibe

    As 2023 polls advances into its last ninety (90) days stretch before the 25 February and March 11 D-Day,issues around corruption and the like which had defined the last general elections,particularly in 2011 and 2019 are not occupying right and center in the campaign for next year’s general elections.

    It is worth recalling that l had noted in a previous article published widely in the mass media in September,titled “Presidency 2023:A Contest Between Three ‘Sinners’? “, that all the presidential front runners,having served in public offices are alleged by most Nigerians to have been corrupt and therefore deemed as sinners by a generality of folks,but without proof as no court of law has convicted any of the eighteen(18) political party flag bearers.

    And despite all the noises being made about fighting corruption by the incumbent government in the past seven and half (7+1/2) years of being in the saddle of governance from Aso Rock Villa,Abuja,a critical mass of Nigerians do not believe that anything good is coming from or can emanate from the much vaunted anti corruption fight which as far as they are concerned has fizzled out.

    Evidently,combating graft in our country is no longer a big deal as the rate of corruption in public service has increased exponentially in the current dispensation. This sorry situation is not only in the estimation of ordinary Nigerians,but also a position validated by prominent international graft monitoring and rating agencies such as Transparency International,TI.

    In the corruption tracking organization’s perception index of corruption in Nigeria released in January of this year,Nigeria ranked 154 out of 180 countries in the world in the year,2021.

    That indicates that the rating for our country has dipped by five (5) points from between 2020 to 2021,which simply means corruption has gone from bad to worse in Nigeria.

    Given the grim statistics,it would be surprising to ordinary folks,but not to pundits that corruption is not a significant campaign talking point in 2023 polls? And it is what it is basically because Nigerians appear to have become accustomed to graft being the present defining feature of public service.

    And the relegation of corruption as a campaign issue is despite the fact that it has now been exposed that the monumental level of corruption in Nigeria is beyond what goes on in the Ministries,Departments and Agencies,MDAs via contract,splitting,padding and non-execution of contracts to outright dipping of filthy hands into the treasury of MDAs.

    Take the case from the ministry of finance where the dismissed Accountant General of the Federation,AGF Ahmed Idris salted away N80 billion naira via fraudulent deductions by compromising the lntegrated Payroll and Personnel Information,IPPIS system which is supposed to be a bulwark against corruption.But he succeeded in stealing N16,000 monthly from every university lecturer enrolled in the salary payment system before he was caught.

    Also consider the situation with the Niger Delta Development Corporation,NDDC which has been revealed as a cesspit of corruption for multiple scavengers pretending to be contractors that have been stealing trillions of naira set aside for intervention in the delta region which is the bread basket of Nigeria that has been highly despoiled by oil/gas explorers.
    The former managing director of the Interim Management Committee,IMC,of NDDC,kemebradikumo Pondei was said to have misappropriated and therefore as to account for over N139 billion of the intervention agency’s funds missing between 2013 and 2018.

    How can we forget the bilking of billions of naira in pension funds by Abdulrasheed Maina,who led the special task force set up by government to recover looted funds lost via mismanagement and ended up looting fourteen (N14b)billion naira which is part of the pension funds that as chairman of the fraud prevention task force,he ought to have recovered for government.

    And the case of looters re-looting what was thought to have been recovered is not peculiar to maladministration of pension funds.

    That is as evidenced by the investigation and sacking of the former anti corruption tzar of this administration,lbrahim Magu who as the chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission,EFCC got booted out following the report of the panel headed by former Appeal Court president,Justice Ayo Salami that investigated corruption charges brought against him by the Attorney General of the Federation,AGF and minister of Justice,Abubakar Malami.

    The investigation according to the CableNewsOnline found that Magu failed to remit N48 billion naira recovered from looters and abandoned 14 fraud cases involving N118 billion naira and $309 million dollars.

    AGF,Malami also recently stated in the mass media that about one trillion naira has been recovered by anti corruption agencies from treasury looters.And the recovered sum has been applied in poverty alleviation activities. I presume that it would be via programs of government such as provision of meals for school children and payment of stipends to the poorest of the poor in our country which are activities under the purview of the ministry of humanitarian affairs.

    Typical of the pervasiveness of corruption which has eastern deep into the fabric of our society,the apparent poor service delivery of the humanitarian affairs and disaster management ministry with Sadiya Umar Farouq as minister has also come under close scrutiny with stunning discovery of elements of corruption oozing out of it.

    So,given the highlighted cases,corruption has more or less become a popular culture in Nigeria such that it appears not to be reprehensible any more that people entrusted with the responsibility to manage our assets for public good, brazenly engage in fraudulent practices in the management of the resources entrusted in their care.

    That disposition stems from the fact that over the past few years,our fellow countrymen and women appear to have been benumbed by the sheer seize of corruption in the country,(which is very weighty and overwhelming)and they have therefore become sort of jinxed,jaded, attuned or accustomed to the culture of sleaze that is practically the norm rather than the exception in the polity.

    Is it not astonishing that Nigerian senators have been regaled with ridiculous claims that termites ‘ate up’ vouchers containing expenditure of seventeen (N17) billion naira in National Social Insurance Trust Fund,NSITF as contained in 2018 audit report of the Office of the the Auditor General of the Government of the Federation,OAUGF?

    In another instance in 2018,Nigerians were also assailed with the ludicrous claims that serpents also swallowed thirty six (N36m) of Joint Admissions and Matriculations Board,JAMB funds in the vault.That is money paid by Nigerian youths to enable them seat for examinations that would qualify them to get admitted into universities.

    Just as most Nigerians thought they had heard the worst of the phantasmagoric tales of corruption in the management of public assets by those entrusted to curate them,a couple of months ago,the beleaguered and long suffering masses were exposed to a pandora box of sleaze in the oil/gas sector.

    This time it was from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation,NNPC ltd,that against the run of play or popular opinion granted Ekpemulo Government,a.k.a Tompolo’s company a contract for the security of oil/gas assets in the Niger delta,which has turned out to be a major saving grace and turning point in the production and export of crude oil that is considered the life blood in the veins of our country and critical to the sustenance of its corporate existence.

    It is heartening that when it matters most,a former militant has come to the rescue of Nigeria by shinning the light on the dark recesses of the niger delta where our country’s oil wealth which is our common patrimony was being willfully stolen by a few nefarious ambassadors.

    Without doubt,the oil/gas assets security contract is a positive reference point or model in government and host communities collaboration in the best interest of our country that should be replicated in other parts of Nigeria like Gombe and Zamfara states where natural resources like gold, bauxite, uranium etc abound and organized criminals are having a field day stealing them.

    Hitherto,it was estimated that as much as 80% of crude oil fed into the trans-forcados pipeline is stolen by crude oil thieves via illegal pipelines grafted into the main pipeline to the export terminal from which the product is siphoned into vessels and sold in the black market by organized crime syndicates.This is estimated in some quarters to amount to about $10 billion dollars loss to the nation’s treasury which is about 50% on the average of Nigeria’s external reserves.

    Arising from such criminal activities that undermined our country’s ability and capacity to meet her 1.9m barrels a day quota by the Organization Of Petroleum Exporting Countries,OPEC,resulting in the shortage of foreign exchange inflow with attendant consequences on the treasury and near insolvency of our country,our country’s economy went into a tailspin as foreign exchange scarcity exacerbated the already high naira-dollar exchange rate.

    With the discovery and plugging of the illegal crude crude oil taps where nearly 437,000 barrels were said to have been stolen on a daily basis,the management of NNPC ltd has stated that the nation is currently on track to meeting its OPEC quota and that would lead to improved foreign exchange inflow.

    Hopefully the sanctity in oil/gas sector would be sustained and the sunken naira exchange rate against other currencies can be on a rebound to shore up our sagging economy.

    And perhaps a similar initiative of assigning individuals and organizations with vast knowledge of the local terrain the task of protecting our highly valuable assets or resources like gold,uranium,bauxite etc,would be replicated in the northern parts of our country like Gombe and Zamfara states axis where they abound.

    In addition to the existing no-fly-zone imposed over the skies in the natural metals rich zones by president Mohammadu Buhari earlier cited,a move to physically secure the minerals would save the nation further loss of income to those who are currently illegally mining and spiriting out of Nigeria our precious gemstones into Dubai etc with aircrafts that can land and take off from short tracks.

    In fact it is amazing that all these aforementioned corrupt practices that amount to pillaging of our natural resources and the hemorrhaging of the country’s treasury that boil down to economic sabotage,which appear to be so unreal,therefore are what movies are made of in other climes,are happening in our country,yet Nigeria has not become a failed nation like Venezuela -an oil rich,but insolvent country.

    In my estimation it is a miracle and a testimony to the resilience of Nigeria as a country and Nigerians as incredibly tenacious people.

    The pretense to fighting corruption by this government is particularly gutting because pundits aver that what has been documented and in the public domain as having been stolen from the public treasury in the past decade certainly makes the previous records of stealing by public servants pale into nothing.But l will not delve into that aspect in this intervention ,as l only intend to only focus on activities leading to next year’s election viz-a-viz 2019.

    In comparison,at this stage of campaigns for general elections in the past,particularly in 2011,2015 and 2019,accusations and counter accusations about the NNPC being the Automated Teller Machine,ATM of the government in power had filled the political space or attained stratospheric dimensions.

    That unedifying experience that marked the electioneering processes of the past is currently not prevalent in the NNPC or any other MDAs that used to be the so called cash cows of incumbent governments such as Nigerian Ports Authority, NPA,Nigerian Maritime Administration Safety Agency,NlMASA,Nigerian Communications Corporation,NCC etc.

    It is commendable that the above listed public institutions now appear to be free of such perfidy in light of the fact that the ruling APC seem to have devised a less brazen method of funding its political campaigns without dipping their hands into public treasury in the way that they did in the past.

    Perhaps the high cost of procuring political office nomination forms by politicians which netted in a couple of billions of naira into the coffers of some of the political parties has helped.

    Otherwise,a more ingenious method must have been introduced by the two main political parties,APC and PDP that have control of government at the centre and subnational levels raise funds for campaigns.

    As for Labor Party,LP that is not in control of government at any level that could have generated funding for it,the only source of income available to it is largely from donations by party faithfuls,especially Nigerians in the diaspora.

    In the case of New Nigeria National Party,NNPP whose source of funds is definitely not from government appointees,since it’s leader is currently not in government,it’s funding source has remained somewhat opaque and perhaps one of the reasons it’s campaign has not been as vibrant and dynamic as that of the other leading parties including LP which is getting a lot of diaspora funding.

    So far,not even the resort to using the funds earmarked for the purchase of arms and ammunition for the military to
    effectively prosecute the war against terrorism and banditry which is a crime that Goodluck Jonathan’s government was accused by the incumbent government of engaging in,(hence then National Security Adviser,NSA Sambo Dasuki was incarcerated for the better part of the first term of the outgoing government) has been an issue in the 2023 campaign.

    It is rather fortuitous that the Independent National Electoral Commission,INEC has finally come out with political parties funding guidelines.
    The amount of funds that can be applied by a candidate for presidential contest has been pegged at five (N5) billion naira and governorship election is capped at one (N1) billion naira.

    Most importantly,the rule requires the parties to declare to INEC its sources of funds up to N50m from foreign sources.
    To me,the rule is okay,but it does not go far enough as it did not require a candidate to disclose all sources of income,including funds sourced locally.

    That could have enabled the tax authorities do their job better by identifying money bags and corporate bodies that might have been under stating their net worth to cheat on tax payments.

    Remarkably,all of the above listed errant and deviant behaviors of public office holders which approximate to corrupt practices that imperil our country and jeopardize the chances of the critical mass of Nigerians getting out of poverty trap,are not the issues driving 2023 polls.

    Apparently,Nigerians are weary of hearing that APC presidential flag bearer,Asiwaju of lagos,Bola Tinubu has a vice grip on Lagos state and his alleged firm,Alfa Beta has been collecting tax on behalf of the government and helping himself to a huge chunk of it.
    That is largely because the allegation has been resolved in court in his favor,as such the claim remains unsubstantiated and hackneyed.

    Similarly,the wild allegations against the PDP candidate,Waziri Adamawa,Atiku Abubakar that during the privatization of government corporations exercise under the watch of former president Olusegun Obasanjo,where he served as vice president,that he is corrupt or sold government assets to himself and his friends has also been unproven and therefore a mere conjecture in the fertile minds of the purveyors of such conspiracy theorists.
    That is also owed to the fact that,strictly speaking,Atiku Abubakar has no corruption conviction against him in Nigeria or anywhere abroad,period!

    The same applies to LP candidate mr Peter Obi who has not been fund wanting with respect to dipping his hands in the treasury during his stewardship as a two term governor of Anambra state.
    And despite the claim in some quarters that Fidelity bank where he has a personal stake is one of the three banks where he saved $50m each on behalf of the state government and that he is one of those recently exposed as having undisclosed offshore bank accounts in international safe havens,as revealed in the Panama Papers scandal,Obi was already a self made billionaire retail goods trader before dabbling into politics.

    By the same token,Dr Musa Kwakwanso of NNPP who has also served as two terms governor,minister and senator is also deemed to be unencumbered by corruption charges.
    Although he was charged to court by the EFFC on allegations that he was involved in corrupt practices during his term as governor of Kano state,he too currently remains unencumbered by any corruption conviction,otherwise he would not be on the ballot.

    Given that Nigerians appear to have become used to or accepted corruption as part of the DNA of their country,it is understandable why it would be feckless for the malaise of corruption to be the driving force of the campaigns to win over the hearts and minds of the electorate by the demagogues as February 25 date for the presidential ballot and March 11 governorship polls draws closer.

    Having said that,it is rather striking,stunning and scary at the same time that what would make or mar 2023 polls is the weaponization of fake news for political gains and violence by members of opposing political parties-particularly the traditional parties,APC,PDP and to a less extent,LP, and NNPP.

    Take for instance when the PDP launched its campaign in Uyo,Akwa lbom state capital.’Obi kekerenke’ was reported to have been the sing song in a corner of the venue.
    Reportedly,Obidients were taunting PDP supporters.
    Although it has been debunked as fake news,imagine the provocation it might have generated if it were to be the reality?

    However,a real breach of peace occurred in Maiduguri,Borno state to the PDP and its presidential candidate,Atiku Abubakar.

    In the cause of campaigning in kano in the north,the APC presidential candidate Bola Tinubu was also reportedly harassed by opposition party members.

    In like manner,Peter Obi and LP have also been victims of harassment by other party members in a couple of campaign locations.

    Very concerning is the videos footages in the social media that indicated that someone was even reportedly apprehended with a knife as he was standing in a path where mr Obi was to pass through during one of the rallies.

    Given how a flag bearer in Pakistan,Imran Khan who is the former prime minister was viciously attacked via a gun shot to his leg during a campaign rally as recent as 3rd November,the preachments to party members in Nigeria to tone down the rhetorics of hate and violence cannot be overemphasized.

    It may also be recalled that in July this year,former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe died from gunshot wounds during a political campaign event.

    Before then,in 2007 to be specific,Benazir Bhutto of Pakistani was also assassinated after an election campaign activity.

    With regards to physical clash between rival parties,l am yet to read or hear of falities,but destruction of INEC’s assets nationwide has been legion.

    As we advance towards 2023 general elections,it is unfortunate that about twenty four (24) precious Nigerian lives have been lost in unfortunate deadly incidents of election violence.
    That is as reportedly revealed by the National Security Adviser,NSA,Babagana Mongonu.

    Hopefully,the 2023 electioneering process would not descend into the sort of orgy of violent destruction that happened in south-west Nigeria in the lbadan axis in the nascent stages of our practice of democratic governance tagged ‘operation wetie’-an euphemism for dousing political opponents with petrol before setting the fellow human being ablaze.
    That barbaric act earned the zone the infamous epithet, Wild,Wild,West in the early 1960s.

    Now,the authorities(government and non-governmental) charged with preventing violence amongst politicians to ensure that the conduct of peaceful campaigns are achieved in 2023 polls,must not only bark but bite in order to avoid what seems like a disaster waiting to happen,if the apparent violent tendencies of fanatical party supporters are not reined in.

    The second and probably most potent and looming threat to 2023 polls which is fake news is even more risky to lovers of peace than the physical brawl that could be instigated via taunting by fanatical supporters earlier outlined.
    That is because it is fake news owing to it’s ubiquitous nature that triggers and sustains violent clashes between party supporters.

    Take for instance the fake letter purportedly written by INEC stating that APC candidate Tinubu is being investigated by the election regulatory agency based on the court report about Tinubu’s alleged indictment in Chicago, USA court on narcotics charges.

    Until INEC came out to disown the letter, the falsehood was gaining currency and who knows what type of reaction from APC supporters it could have triggered?

    That is on top of the numerous trolls about Tinubu’s academic qualifications and questions about his ancestry which had been trending online.

    Also,a trending video of the endorsement of LP candidate Obi by international celebrities in other climes is another sort of fake news that is negatively affecting the 2023 polls.

    That is amongst many other falsehoods promoting the candidacy of Obi and peddling of lies about the opposing candidates that have practically seized the social media space.

    Although these unwholesome acts may not be with the consent of mr Obi and his campaign council,l have had cause in the past to caution and reprimand Obidients-LP devoted supporters to thread with more caution in the article earlier referenced because their unwholesome practice of manipulating video or facts to promote their principal and disparage his opponents may hurt rather than help Obi.

    The caution is simply underscored by the basic fact that sooner or later,fact checking would be conducted and the truth would prevail,thereafter voters may develop skepticism about Obi’s candidacy.

    Equally of concern is the mindset of some Obidients that,even when the political mathematics don’t add up,if Peter Obi is not declared the winner in the February 25,2023 contest after the balloting,it would be that he was rigged out.
    Does that not suggest that the crisis of ejection deniers intending to upend our democracy may be in the horizon?

    Nursing and peddling such outrageous notion may lead to unnecessary and damning post election consequences, hence it is imperative that we should all be weaned of such incendiary thought process in order to nip in the bud,discard and eradicate such sense of denial from the minds of those that are toying with it.

    Since the internet and social media are unmanaged space,but they remain the most effective communication platforms, Nigerian authorities,particularly INEC and security agencies must workout a formula to rein in fake news purveyors either via persuasion,’moral-suation’ or sanction that should be fashioned or hashed out sooner than later.

    The aforementioned pact between political parties,especially presidential candidates with civil society organizations compelling them not to engage in violence or rhetorics that could engender hatred between members of opposing political parties,should be replicated in the social media space.

    As a matter of urgency,civil society organizations such as the one led by former military head of state,General Abdulsalami Abubakar and Bishop Hassan Mathew Kukah on non-violence by politicians should be expanded into the social media space or replicated.

    The necessity and urgency of the intervention is underscored by the fact that fake news currently symbolizes, represents and embodies the greatest threat to peaceful elections next year as it has assumed the dimension of a ticking time bomb or can be said to be like a keg of gunpowder that our country is seating on,if the nefarious ambassadors are allowed to continue to ride roughshod with Nigerians with their reckless predilections with fake news as the 2023 polls draws nearer.

    To be explicit,the potency of fake news is evident in the violence that led to Tutsi and Hutus self annihilation cauldron that boiled over in Rwanda in 1994 during which between 500 to 800 lives are believed to have been lost. So also is the post election violence that ensued between the supporters of Raila Odinga and Uhuru kenyata in the East African country,Kenya in 2007,which resulted in the death of 1300 Kenyans in the aftermath of the bloody confrontation.

    It is worth pointing out that the aforementioned conflicts that had horrific and devastating consequences in the referenced countries were triggered by reckless and fake rhetorics in the mass media.

    As opposed to abusing the massive opportunities offered by the social media to grow our nascent democracy as were the cases in Rwanda and Kenya,I would like to recommend that Nigerians take to heart the following recommendation by former US president Donald Trump’s ex chief of staff,General Kelly who made the remark about the qualities that Americans should look out for in choosing their president:
    “We need to look infinitely harder at who we elect to any office in our land.
    At the office seeker’s character,at their morals, at their ethical record,their integrity, their honesty,their flaws,what they have said about women and minorities,why they are asking to serve in public office in the first place,and only then consider the policies they espouse.”

    In addition to General Kelly’s recommended value proposition or criteria for choosing whoever is aspiring for the office of the president of the USA,the sensitivity of public office seekers in Nigeria to ethnic and religious differences that have been magnified in the last decade should also be focused on,especially for those seeking to be president.

    The ongoing consultations that non political,regional,ethnic and religious groups such as Arewa Consultative forum,Ohaneze Ndigbo and Christian Association of Nigeria,CAN are having with presidential standard bearers of the main political parties,as well as the efforts of media organizations like the Thisday/AriseTv group in organizing town hall meetings to interrogate the policies and programs of the candidates that have agreed to participate,are quite encouraging.

    Nevertheless,more needs to be done to eliminate the clear and present dangers of fake news in our body polity.

    While the new rules to mitigate fake news are being processed or prepared,public office seekers in our beloved country and their supporters should make the substance of their manifestoes their talking points and be careful not to throw caution to the winds by resorting to the use of fake news as a political weapon as we approach this very consequential process of recruiting those that would be our new leaders via 2023 polls.

     

    Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur,public policy analyst,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
    To continue with this conversation,pls visit www.magnum.ng

  • The Donald Trump That Africans Don’t Know – By Magnus Onyibe

    The Donald Trump That Africans Don’t Know – By Magnus Onyibe

    The first thing that springs forth from the mind of some Africans as soon as the 45th president of the United States of America,USA,Donald J Trump is mentioned is the impression that he does not like Africans,which is so untrue.

    And that wrong notion of president Trump disliking Africans stems from the fake news planted by his political opponents in the media and attributed to him such as: “Africa is a shit hole country.”

    Although the statement is flawed in a
    fundamental way,most people who believe and therefore are not enamored by president Trump have not bothered to critically identify and examine the flaw.

    And that is the reason emotions seem to have beclouded their judgement and why they have swallowed the falsehood hook line-and-sinker.

    As we all know,Africa is a continent of 54 countries and not just one country.
    So how could president Trump have made the comment attributed to him by his traducers: “Africa is a shit hole country”?

    Since most Africans failed to critically scrutinize the comment because they were eager to believe all the vile things that the so called Never Trumps had to say,the flaw or illogicality of referring to Africa as shit hole country,whereas it is indeed a continent,has unfortunately been lost on some of them.

    Apparently,those who are hell bent on generating friction between Africans and the 45th president of the US,had done a ‘good’ job as most people of black race have remained trapped in that mind-bending spell which l intend to dispel with this intervention.

    Hopefully,by debunking the myths with how Mr Trump really feels about Africans and what he had done to elevate Black Americans and those residing in the continent during his tenure as president of the US,there would be a rethinking and resetting of Africa/Trump relationship that would position the continent to benefit more from Mr Trump’s presidency of the US,if he returns to the White House as he plans to in 2024.

    Not only because Nigeria has the largest population of black people on earth or by virtue of its being the biggest economy in Africa by GDP,but based on my personal experience as a Nigerian who has met president Trump one-on-one,I would like to use Nigeria as a reference point for assessing Trump-Africa relationship which is apparently currently foggy owing to calculated misinformation.

    To put things in perspective,it may be recalled that it is in the first two years of Mr Trump’s presidency,that Nigeria’s president Mohammadu Buhari and Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya,notable African leaders were his guests in the White House.
    In my reckoning that is a reflection of not just passing,but keen interest in the continent as opposed to disdain for Africa as some detractors have tried to portray the former US president’s disposition to Africa.

    Adjunct to that,and very significant to Nigerians,it must not be forgotten that it was under Mr Trump’s presidency that the US agreed to sell to Nigeria critical military hardware such as the super Tucano jets and other military armaments that were needed to combat the terrorists that were gaining the upper hand in the northern parts of our country.

    It is worth recalling that for too long,Nigeria was denied access to the needed military hardware to fight terrorism owing to the Leahy Doctrine which prohibits the sale of US military hardwares to countries that are deemed to lack the discipline not to use them indiscriminately.

    That condition which is nebulous had compelled Nigeria under the watch of president Goodluck Jonathan to attempt to procure arms and ammunition from the black market which resulted in a private jet from Nigeria full of cash being intercepted in South Africa with consequential scandal that portrayed Nigeria in negative light.

    Now,is it not striking and heartening that it was under Mr Trump’s presidency of the US that Nigeria on president Buhari’s watch was allowed to legitimately acquire the attack aircrafts that have today proven to be highly useful in the prosecution of the war against terrorists in Nigeria?

    There are more positive actions taken by president Trump to support Nigeria and indeed Africa during his four (4) years reign,but for now,it is in the light of the above,that l would like to implore and urge Africans to appraise mr Trump by what he did for the continent as the 45th president of the US from 2016 to 2020,which is legion,and not by what he is alleged to have said about Africans via pranks planted in the mass media by his political opponents.

    The above admonition is underscored by my belief that as the 45th president of the US, Mr Donald Trump prepares to return as the 47th president in 2024,l fervently believe that it is high time that we all got to the brass tacts about the real Donald Trump that Africans don’t know,so that we can all work out a more positive way to relate to him.

    And I am of the conviction that if Mr Donald Trump returns to the White House one more time to complete the good work that he started in 2016 before he was derailed by the devastating COVID-19 pandemic that ravaged the world and particularly resulted in the untimely loss of over one million American lives which is largely responsible for his not being re-elected,Africa and Africans would receive more than a passing interest particularly now that he is getting to understand the continent better with the marriage on November 12,2022 of his adorable Daughter Tiffany to Micheal Boulos,the hardworking son of Massad and Sarah Boulos who have had long association and huge footprints in Africa through their business conglomerate SCOA plc that has business interests throughout the continent of Africa,especially west and French speaking parts of the continent.

    And l would like to commence the journey of discovery or excursion into who mr Trump essentially is with respect to his relationship with Africans with my personal experience when l first met with the great American president and indeed one of the most consequential world leaders of all times who has been largely misunderstood by those who do not know him.

    It was at the Trump Golf course in West Palm Beach,Florida USA that we met for the first time.

    And the first thing he said to me when l was introduced by my friend Dr Massad Boulos to him as a friend from Nigeria was:your country has a lot of oil under the soil”.
    And l spontaneously responded in the affirmative.

    In my view,his comment indicates that he easily identifies opportunities wherever they are and it is a reflection of the fecundity of mr Trump’s mind.

    And it also reflects the fact that the former US president Trump has set high standards for himself and others which is that all opportunities should be optimally harnessed for the good of all.

    President Trump is likely miffed that with the amount of oil under Nigerian soil,the citizens have no business being poor and no need to be migrating in droves to other countries particularly via risky routes that often end up in the death of a multitude of Africans in the Sahara desert or in the Mediterranean Sea through which they try to illegally get into European countries,the US and other North American wealthy countries to eek out a living as refugees.

    It is perhaps such perspicuity of mr Trump that makes some Africans misunderstand him because going by the sympathetic look that l could spot in his face when we first met,the 45th president of the US and accomplished business Titan,is disappointed that despite Nigeria’s huge oil reserve(6th largest crude oil producer in OPEC) and abundant Human Resources in Nigeria,(in excess of 200 million people with 60% as youths) the country’s leaders have failed to capitalize on those critically important assets that the country is endowed with,hence Nigeria has degenerated to the extent that she has earned the odious title of being the poverty capital of the world( formerly held by India)with majority of her citizens wallowing in abject poverty and misery.

    Which wealth creator and someone often associated with progress and success, that ex president Trump personifies and embodies would not express indignation about the leaders and people from a country like Nigeria with abundant natural and human resources,yet mired in the bottom rung of socioeconomic development?

    Arising from the circumstances described above,Mr Trump,s feeling of empathy and sympathy for Nigerians and indeed Africans May be justified.But owing to ignorance foisted by mischief makers,mr Trump’s capitalist disposition or stimuli is being misinterpreted as racism.

    Incidentally,that feeling of Mr Trump that the African continent is punching below its weight is validated by the latest National Bureau of Statistics,NBS survey report which has revealed that 63% which is one hundred and thirty three million (133m) Nigerians are living in poverty.

    Given that an estimated four (4)of every African and five (5) black people of African origin are Nigerians,one can extrapolate the level of poverty in Africa and what might be driving what appears to the uninformed observers conclusion about mr Trump’s palpable impatience with failure,transformed into frustrations with Africans which have been misunderstood as racist attitude by some of my compatriots in Africa and blacks in the diaspora.

    As opposed to the orthodox approach of the so called prim and proper manners that technocrats in Washington DC which mr Trump refers to as swamp would prefer,the hopeful 47th president of the US,rather talks straight from the heart which is evidential of the fact he has a profound mind with progress ,success and prosperity as fulcrum.

    And it is from that prism that the actions and attitude of the 45th president of the US,(2016-2020) Donald Trump towards lazy or unproductive people,irrespective of their color of skin-black,Brown or white should be situated.

    My reality is that contrary to being a racist as mr Trump has been portrayed to some Africans,he likes to without exception,see and associate with success in all humans worldwide.
    And he denounces failures equally,whether they are in the US,Europe,Africa or Asia,Christians or Muslims,Hindus or Sikhs or Buddhists.

    Put succinctly,mr Donald Trump simply can not stand failure hence under his watch he resisted the influx into the US those he termed dredges of society who he accused of being rapists,murderers and criminals of all hues and illegal immigrants and on which basis those that he denounced tagged him a racist.

    Definitely,Trump is not referring to nation builders likes Wally Adeyemo,the deputy Treasury Secretary of the US and the eight (8) legislators-Adeoye Owolewa,Carol Kazeem,Esther Agbaje,and Gabe Okoye as well as Solomon Adesanya,Phil Olaleye, not forgetting Tish Naghise all of whom are of Nigerian origin that just won their contests into legislative posts in the US during the recent mid term elections.

    But being that there is a preponderance of failures amongst the Africans on the continent owing to prolonged colonization and forceful extraction of her rich natural resources in the past and the current neo-colonialist practices against the Africans on the continent on one hand,coupled with the systemic injustice perpetrated against the blacks in the US in the past several millenniums,till date;there is high tendency to believe that Trump is against blacks which constitute about 13.2 of US population,and represent a high proportion of about 23.8%of the poverty group in that country which is almost twice higher than the proportion of the general population,hence mr Trump is wrongly deemed to be a racist.

    As a reflection of his openness to welcoming immigrants which is as opposed to being a racist,in august 2020, mr Trump held a naturalization ceremony in the White House for immigrants including black and brown people.

    Although a symbolic gesture,it is evidential of the fact that mr Trump is welcoming to those that can be productive and who wish emigrate to the US via proper immigration processes.

    As a capitalist,it is typical that mr Trump may not stomach or accommodate indolence of Africans and poor leadership defined by corruption which unfortunately is the hallmark of African governments resulting in Africans migrating to the US and other climes where the grass is believed to be greener and which in turn leads to resentment from the citizens of the host countries where the migrating Africans take refuge.

    A good reference point is the recent xenophobic attacks against other Africans in South Africa and Ghana,particularly against Nigerians in those countries.

    But if such happens in the US and Europe, it would be tagged racism,right?
    The truth is that most folks irrespective of color of skin or creed are xenophobic or racist against people that they don’t know or understand.

    Consider how Ghana repatriated Nigerians from their country in 1969 and Nigeria in turn expelled Ghanaians from Nigeria in 1983-a phenomenon tagged: ‘Ghana must go’.

    In what appears to be poetic justice,and tit for tat manner,Ghana also recently sent packing Nigerians seeking greener pastures in their country,one more time.

    Had all these inhumanities happened in Europe or the US to Africans,they could have been termed racism.
    But since it happened within Africa between fellow Africans,it is termed xenophobia.

    The goal here is that through our efforts at helping Mr Trump understand Africa better,and vice versa for Africans,the US under Trump’s watch in 2024 would help Africa become better.

    My second take away about former US president,Donald Trump after we met is that his desire is to be associated with hardworking and high performance driven people.
    That character trait is apparent in his television game show- ‘The Apprentice’ where he would without mercy say to an intern pitching to him,but lack the correct energy and idea “you are fired”

    In my personal assessment, Mr Trump has a fetish for seeking the very best in human beings.
    If possible,he would like all members of the human race not to be in poverty or be experiencing misery.

    Based on the above premise,it is not surprising that he expects and maybe demands high performance qualities from his children.
    As such it is not unexpected that he similarly has high expectations of his sons or daughters in-laws who are by marriage rule,his adopted sons and daughters.

    In that respect,typical of his competitive approach to life,the former president did not hesitate in extracting from me,a sort of character testimony on Micheal,his new son-Inlaw.

    He was impressed that l traveled all the way from Nigeria/Africa to attend the wedding and sought to know how well l knew Micheal and whether he is hardworking.

    Incidentally,l have seen Micheal at work on numerous occasions that he was in Nigeria,so l affirmed to the father of the bride that Micheal had been manifesting leadership qualities as a teenager.

    That independent validation from
    me,to say the least,presumably lifted up mr Trump’s spirit about the marriage of Micheal to his daughter Tiffany.

    Thereafter,the unvarnished respect and priority that he accords hard work and ability to get ahead in life by being focused on goals and targets which are values that in my estimation reigns supreme in mr Trump’s universe,were on parade during the banquet as he extolled Tiffany for her hardworking attributes or characteristics,having evolved from her childhood into adulthood after passing through Duke university law school.
    And he credited Tiffany’s mum,Marla Maples with the incredible job of imbuing Tiffany with good character and chutzpah.

    So much about my newly formed opinion about mr Trump based on my personal experience which l hope would help Africans better understand one of the consequential leaders on planet earth.

    As,l have also learnt,as president of the US between 2016 and 2020,mr Trump also positively imparted the lives of blacks in the US,but most of the good deeds remain unsung.

    For instance,how many know that under president Trump’s watch,a groundbreaking justice reform policy was introduced to give blacks better breathing space.
    In December 2018,president Trump signed the First Step Act.
    The law is generally believed to be: “the most substantial changes in a generation” to “tough on crime” laws that increased the federal prison population by 700 percent since 1970.

    To address the thirsty and soured relationship between police and citizens,especially blacks,as president Mr Trump signed an executive order that promoted training for men and women of the police force and the setting up of a national database to keep track of misconduct by police officers.
    Stemming from the above,it is believed that crime rates dropped in the US.

    Also,during president Trump’s time in office,he funded historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs) which were hitherto starved of public funds.And he also created Opportunity Zones which was aimed at empowering blacks by boosting jobs/ employement opportunities in their communities.
    As a result,before the Covid-19 pandemic struck,black unemployment and poverty rate are also believed to have been at all time low of 5.9% in 2018.

    Another evidence of poverty reduction in the black and brown communities attributed to Mr Trump’s policy is that an estimated seven (7) million that were on Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program got off of it.

    Very significantly, just before he left office, president Trump unfurled his “Platinum Plan” for black Americans which includes designating the infamous KuKlux Klan,KKk and ANTIFA as terrorist organizations.It also include proposals to make lynching a hate crime, increase investments in black communities, support black homeownership and recognize Juneteeth as a federal holiday.

    Although critics may argue that some of the lofty ideas in former president Trump’s development agenda for blacks were not far reaching enough,it is incontestable and doubtless that some of the policies were implemented and they had significant impact on the lives of folks in poorly resourced communities as already noted.

    Following the wedding and our interactions,mr Trump is understanding Africa better.As such he would be better guided and equipped with knowledge about Africa and indeed Nigeria,if he becomes the 47th president of the US next year.

    It is from the above prism that l would like to crave the indulgence of readers to recall the critical role played by Mr Jared Kushner,the Jewish American husband of Ivanka,(mr Trump’s daughter) in the dexterous management of the frosty relationship between the Jews and Arabs in the Middle East which thawed during Mr Trump’s presidency.

    It was Kushner as president Trump’s Advisor that helped Trump package US-middle east policy that produced the lbrahimic Accord which has facilitated interaction between United Arab Emirates,UAE and Isreal resulting in resumption of air travel between both countries and Isreali High Technology firms locating and operating in Jebel Ali port and industrial zone.

    Such salutary development can be replicated in Africa if mr Trump becomes the 47th president of the US next year.

    Perhaps,arising from his leaning towards the evangelicals in the US,it is on record that it is during president Trump’s reign as president of the US that African Pentecostal faith leaders and evangelists were given the most access to interact with their American counterparts.

    So,under proper scrutiny,and after putting into the crucible the policies and programs of president Trump,it would be clear that he significantly positively impacted the lives of blacks in the US and Africans on the continent.

    But the reason he is wrongly tagged as racist is because he has not made efforts to correct the wrong impression by putting in array or cataloguing his policies and programs geared towards helping blacks and Africans.

    It is trite to point out that should president Trump return to the White House next year,Africa stands to be the beneficiary of a reincarnated president Trump as he would be finishing what he started.

    In conclusion,l am saying to all the Africans and African Americans who are thinking that president Trump is a racist:allow me be your mirror.

    In light of how l was warmly welcomed and accepted by president Trump,it is clear to me that he does not have any personal tiff against Africans that are dynamic and progressive.
    But he takes exception to indolence and laziness,be it by white,brown or black people.

    And my frank assessment is that it is a reflection of the fact that mr Trump is a capitalist who loathes seeing people in the midst of opportunities to become wealthy and self reliant,wallowing in poverty and needing aid to survive.

    Arising from the above,it should be clear that it is mr Trump’s capitalist instincts that are being misconstrued as racist tendencies.

    And l hope that such negative perception would change after this invigorating narrative about my personal encounters with him.

    For the sake of emphasis,my reality is that mr Trump actually belongs to the capitalist tribe which as we all know remains the best system for organizing a society for inclusive prosperity.

    And the assertion above is underscored by the fact that capitalism which is an economic system in which private sectors own and control property in accord with their interests and demand and supply freely set prices in markets in a way that can serve the best interest of society has been proven to be the rational self-interest that can lead to economic prosperity.

    If l were to be asked to summarize my impression of president Trump,l would draw from the wisdom of the Chinese philosopher,Confucius as l am of the conviction that his quote below captures the driving principle or motivation in all that he does:

    “The will to win,the desire to succeed, the urge to reach your full potential… these are the keys that will unlock the door to personal excellence”

    As I now know mr Trump better,l hope that blacks in the US and the Africans on the continent would by the same token understand mr Trump better as a race- neutral leader that is very committed to the progress and development of all human kind,and who has zero tolerance for laggards that fail to push themselves hard enough to succeed.

     

    Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
    To continue with this conversation,pls visit www.magnum.ng

  • PDP, the furious five and dark clouds – By Magnus Onyibe

    PDP, the furious five and dark clouds – By Magnus Onyibe

    I am of the conviction that no pundit had envisaged that the current chasm in the Peoples Democratic Party,PDP would grow from a mere rift into a crisis of the monumental dimension that it has assumed.

    Usually, after party primaries that are often  rancorous after being bitterly fought,healing balms are applied on bruised egos.

    But it would appear as if the PDP has been bucking the trend since 2011 after Goodluck Jonathan won the presidency and the aggrieved members broke ranks with the leadership of the party resulting in the trouncing of the party in 2015.

    The assertion above is underscored by the fact that the level of attrition and acrimony currently existing in the main opposition party was uncommon in the history of Nigerian politics until it popped up in the PDP between 2011 and 15.

    That is when a coalition of five (5) opposition parties-CPC,ACN,ANPP and APGA,including a splinter group from the ruling party that branded itself -nPDP in cahoot with the opposition party unseated then ruling PDP from Aso Rock Villa seat of presidential power.

    Although in 2019 the party managed to remain together after the primaries held in Portharcourt Rivers state where the governor,Nyesom Wike who became the chief financier of the party was doggedly fighting for the emergence of Aminu Tambuwal,current governor of Sokoto state as the party’s presidential flag bearer in a fierce contest that was eventually won by current presidential candidate of the party,Turaki Atiku Abubakar,(aided by the infamous ‘kaduna mafia’)the fractured bones and cracked skulls from that epic dwell were quickly mended.

    Curiously,the fall out from the party’s primaries in 2019 was not allowed to metastasize in the manner that the 2023  general elections primaries for the party  to recruit political leaders in the next election has been allowed to degenerate into a very dangerous dimension.

    So,what is going on,and better still,what political fundamentals and dynamics are currently in play or might have gone askew?

    Is the fact that it was five (5) opposition parties that collapsed into one party-All Progressives Party,APC to oust then ruling party in 2015,and currently another five(5) furious governors are badly jeopardizing the chances of the PDP returning to Aso Rock Villa in 2023 an ominous sign ?
    And is the constant occurrence of the number five (5) in the misfortune of PDP a significant malaise ?

    If it is,would the building of a coalition of opposition political forces featuring Musa Kwakwanso’s New Nigeria Peoples Party NNPP,Chukwuma Soludo’s All Progressives Grand Alliance , APGA,Dumebi Kachikwu’s,Africa Democratic Congress,ADC,Omoyele Sowore’s African Action Congress,AAC and Adewole Adebayo’s Social Democratic Party,SDP or even Chris Okotie’s Fresh Democratic Party be the cure or panacea to the PDP bogey or jinx with the number five (5)?

    For instance,I believe that Dr Kwakwanso’s NNPP is open for dialogue towards reaching an agreement for a coalition.

    The fact that his party actually initially negotiated with the Labour Party,LP to join forces but could not get to a yes,and a recent comment by the Presidential candidate of the party that becoming president of Nigeria is not a do-or-die affair to him,l am inclined to believe that he may be open to negotiation.

    And why not?

    Although NNPP has been recently revealed as fielding the next highest number of candidates for all the political offices after the ruling APC and main opposition,PDP,it is clear to even the uninitiated in politics that both the party and is presidential candidate have zero chance of taking over Aso Rock Villa after president Mohammadu Buhari exits office on May 29,2023.

    That is quite unlike the LP, which despite all the odds stacked against it and which makes its ambition to be the party calling the shots from the presidential Villa in 2023 more like a vaulting ambition than a realizable one,Kwakwanso with his NNPP is obviously not deluding himself or fantasizing about succeeding president Buhari in Aso Rock Villa.

    Before proceeding further, l would like to crave the indulgence of readers to allow me deviate a bit to extol the virtues of Peter Obi and his team that infused life into the political grave bound LP until about six (6)months ago when it evolved into a high flying political party. And l would also like to credit him for igniting the interest of erstwhile politically dormant youths,who were at best engaged as political thugs.

    Today,the youths surge in politics  ignited by Obi has generated over ten (10) million new voters which is a significant addition to the number of registered voters in Nigeria that was only a little above eighty (80) million in 2019 and which is currently ninety three (93m) million that the Independent National Electoral Commission,INEC has informed us would be be expected to cast their ballots to determine who our next set of political leaders would be from 2023.

    Of course,giving credit to Obi’s movement for rallying our youth force is not discountenancing the critical role played by the National Assembly,NASS and the presidency for the electoral reform exercise carried out in 2022 via the new electoral act 2022 that has codified the introduction of the use of electronic transfer of election results to INEC database from the polling booths,the use of Electronic Biometric Verification System,BVAS etc,all of which have played critical roles in bringing fidelity into the electoral process hence more Nigerians decided to take the civic responsibility of voting more seriously.

    Also, it must be put on record that it is Obi and LP that have pioneered in Nigeria (in the course of this election season) the concept of party members collectively funding it via donations and contributions from members and well wishers.

    Before now, it was an anathema that members that are none government appointees would be funding a party over a long period.

    The alternative used to be that money bags would form and fund the party.

    If it fails to make significant impact in producing a president,governors,or members of the legislature in a relatively short period soon after its formation,it gets atrophied largely due to lack of funding.

    So, traditionally sustainable funding for parties comes from the coffers of government via its appointees into public trust positions and money bags/godfathers not party members.

    In fact the tradition is that party supporters expect and receive money from politicians seeking to get elected into public offices.

    But funding for the LP is currently not based on the old template.

    Rather the the LP has adopted a type of GoFundMe financial model that is a sort of crowd funding practiced in the private sector and basically what obtains in matured democracies like the the United Kingdom, UK and United States of America, USA.

    That seems to be the method adopted by Peter Obi and the Obedient/OBIDATTI movement in the current dispensation, which is commendable.

    It is indeed a novelty which hopefully may be adopted by other parties when they register their members in the coming dispensation.

    And the impressively welcome phenomenon of funding of political parties by members is being championed by Nigerians in the diaspora who are presently disenfranchised by the current electoral system that does not permit diaspora voting in general elections.

    Hopefully,the need to get Nigerians in the diaspora into a voting force would be part of the corrections that should be made in the electoral process the next time it is reviewed in the nearest future.

    Incidentally,apart from the salutary improvements that the electoral act 2022 has had on the electoral system in Nigeria, there is another interesting model that might positively change the course of politics in Nigeria.

    And that is party members registration initiative that has been introduced by the ruling APC,but it is yet to be fully consummated.

    Circling back to Kwakwanso and NNPP outlook as the beautiful bride waiting for a willing and capable suitor,he and his party may be disposed to doing the most pragmatic thing to remain relevant politically, which is going into partnership with a party that it considers as having a very good chance to win.

    And that would be the main opposition party,PDP which is not going to be facing a referendum like the ruling APC under whose watch Nigerian masses are suffering the most.

    Therefore, the electorate may be very resentful of the party responsible for their present misery and its candidates and would punish it at the polls.

    That is all things being equal.

    Adjunct to that is the fact that NNPP which is in infancy needs to grow organically as opposed to merging with another or other parties,so it would prefer being a coalition partner that would enhance its capacity to remain on course for future electoral contests.

    Another scenario is that if the new party decides to remain standing on its own,it would be risking going into extinction before the next election circle in 2027 by running out of steam due to lack of  funding as the pockets of its founder and driver may become empty.

    So, my guess is that NNPP would as it were be anxiously scanning the environment for suitors and PDP should no longer tarry in taking the bait.

    Since all the other parties that l earlier listed as potential candidates for partnership with PDP share similar characteristics with NNPP in terms of survivability without being in power and not being funded by a money bag with very deep pockets,of which Kwakwanso and other backers of the respective parties are not,it may appear pedantic repeating the same narrative or singing similar refrain about their being beautiful brides waiting to be wooed by parties that have the means.

    To put things in proper context,what l am proposing for the political system is akin to the banking sector consolidation policy that saw about one hundred(100) banks coalesce into less than twenty five (25)banks about ten (10 )years ago in our country. The big parties should build coalition with the smaller parties and not merge which is the model adopted to birth APC in 2013/15.

    Given the scenario painted above ,one thing that is still puzzling to me is that since the smaller parties are all brides,why is the current main opposition PDP hesitant to do to the present ruling APC,what as an opposition party in 2013/15,it did to then ruling PDP by giving it a mortal blow when it rallied five (5)political parties to collapse into APC as a Special Purpose Vehicle,SPV used to topple then ruling party,PDP?

    Returning to the issue of the divisive war raging in the PDP,readers should please allow me offer a window into the origin of the discontent emanating from the Furious Five (5) or if you like Famous Five(5) governors by providing some insights into how consistent perfidy or injustice to a people or a person can develop into resentment,then escalate into incipient bitterness before blowing out into full scale crisis with high potency to kill a hitherto thriving party.

    As earlier observed,one of the reasons smaller parties tend to go into coalition and become part of the wining party is that it is too expensive to run a party if the members are not part of the government as such they may not have the means of sustenance.

    As a consequence,such mushroom parties tend to die quickly or may remain permanently dwarf.

    Take for instance the Fresh Party led by Chris Okotie or the political movement that was birthed by Tunde Bakare,both of whom are clergymen.

    Okotie’s party has barely been surviving and even Bakare’s movement might have been asphyxiated owing to lack of funding support to sustain them even though both Okotie and Bakare might have made the foray into politics with church money generated via the collective efforts of members of their respective flocks.

    Another typical case in point of a party that got starved of funds and was on the verge of basically losing direction is the PDP.

    Until it was practically rescued through the benevolence of a state governor that has the financial muscle,it was literally withering after it lost power at the centre in 2015.

    As it may be recalled,after it’s defeat by the APC coalition in 2015,PDP,the once bubbly party that was awash with cash since 1999 when it mounted the leadership throne in Aso Rock Villa,could hardly afford to sustain itself until oil rich Rivers state governor,Nyesom Wike came to its rescue.

    And as the saying goes: He Who Pays The Piper Dictates The Tune.

    Hence the party was basically at the beck and call of the Rivers state governor.

    In any case ,the situation is not really dissimilar to what obtained with the APC that was also reportedly given a life line by mr Rotimi Amaechi,governor of Rivers state when the party was also literally gasping for breathe in 2013/15.

    As it may be recalled,Amaechi a former chieftain of the PDP moved from PDP to APC to give it the oxygen that it needed (financial support and national outlook ) which enabled it spread it’s tentacles nation wide hence it was able to campaign vigorously with Amaechi as the Director General of the campaign organization that eventually facilitated the APC winning the presidential election in 2015.

    It is ominous that the jumping out of the boat by Amaechi and other PDP stalwarts was precipitated by a disagreement that lead to a cataclysmic fracture of then ruling party,PDP culminating into a significant chunk of the heavy weights flipping camps.

    So by and large,the oil rich Rivers state money and to a lesser extent lagos state money since the days Asiwaju Bola Tinubu,through Babatunde Fashola till date have been sustaining political parties in Nigeria,(PDP,AD,ACN,APC) particularly since the return of multi party democracy in 1999.

    Arising from the assertions above,should readers continue to search for the reasons that ex governors of Rivers and Lagos states that are reportedly the agent provocateurs for the bolstering of the struggling opposition parties have been seeking to become the next president of Nigeria when it is self evident?

    Also ,although it is  not obvious to most pundits,past governors of Rivers and Lagos states have been rewarded for providing financial muscle to the current ruling party.

    Is it not remarkable that Rotimi Amaechi was the minister Incharge of Transport and Aviation portfolio in 2015,before aviation was separated from his supervision and Babatunde Fashola also had control of the Works and Housing ministry as its minister in 2015,m prior to Housing ministry being hived or  decoupled from his purview, and both of the heads of the aforementioned lucrative and powerful ministries were once upon a time governors of Rivers and Lagos states respectively ?

    In the light of the above,Nigerians can also decipher the origin,and if you like,justification for the feeling of entitlement to becoming president of Nigeria by the past and present governors of Rivers state,beginning from Dr Peter  Odilli (1999-2007),Mr Rotimi Amaechi (2007-2015) to Barrister Nyesom Wike(2015 till date) who have been instrumental to the sustenance of both the former ruling party,PDP and current ruling party,APC.

    Ditto for Bola Tinubu,ex lagos state governor who sustained the party which morphed from Alliance for Democracy,AD to Action Congress AC and Action Congress of Nigeria ACN before finally blending with the quadruplet earlier listed to  form APC-a platform with which he is presently seeking to become president of Nigeria in 2023.

    For Wike,in my reckoning,the continued flow of bile of disappointment into his mouth is the double whammy let down that he has received from the PDP. That  is basically what is firing him up.

    And that may be because he believes he was not only robbed of victory in his quest towards becoming PDP’s presidential candidate for 2023 by the party chairman,senator Iyiorcha Ayu who he is accusing of conniving with Sokoto governor Aminu Tambuwal to collapse his votes into that of Atiku Abubakar’s;worse still,he is gripping that he was also sidelined by not being given the option of becoming the running mate to the presidential candidate,Turaki Atiku Abubakar.

    So by and large,after the messy process that first threw him up for the presidency and instead of him landing on the throne in Aso Rock Villa,he was literally flung under the bus with ignominy by being ditched a second time as the Vice President slot was given to Delta state governor,Ifeanyi Okowa instead of him.

    Although the other aforementioned victims of presidential attempts and failures of Rivers state extraction such as Peter Odilli and Rotimi Amaechi have taken the loss in their strides,Wike,fiery by nature,has opted not to acquiesce with what can best be described as the political ‘use and dumb’ syndrome afflicting the good people of Rivers state.

    That is why he is kicking up the storm with the intent to inflict a hurricane-like damage on PDP.

    And he has found partners in four (4) other governors- Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia state,lfeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu state, Emmanuel Ortom of Benue state as well as Seyi Makinde of Oyo state.

    Although they are unified in their anger against their party,their grievances are not of the same hue with Wike’s.

    The four (4) governors in my assessment are rebelling against their party because they are having a feeling that the south being shortchanged,if not cancelled out in the scheme of things within the PDP.
    And they have a point which the party can not afford to dismiss with a wave of the hand or postpone.

    The collaborating governors,in my view are lamenting the fact that the south that used to pride itself as the PDP’s political base is being emasculated by virtue of its currently having its chairman from the north,presidential candidate from the north and campaign director general also from the north.

    It is an abnormality which is being deemed as the south being of no significance in the emerging political ecosystem of our beloved country.

    The only ethnic or regional party that resisted merging with five (5) opposition parties in 2013/14 (although a significant portion was hived off) is APGA which has an lgbo sociocultural identity.

    Another party that escaped the political eclipse is senator Ifeanyi Uba’s Young Progressive Party,YPP which is also an lgbo based party.

    Its survival stems from the fact that it is being sustained by the oil tycoon who has a very deep pocket.

    To a much less degree,the PRP with a proclivity towards the Hausa/Fulani tribe that is anchored in kano the heartland of the north is also in the category of party that did not join the 2013/14 coalition. When you add NNPP, it would be clear that the lgbos have two regional/ethnic parties-APGA and YPP while the Hausa/Fulani can also boost of two -PRP and NNPP.

    It is rather curious that,although Afenifere -the Yoruba sociocultural group is very powerful like the Arewa in the north and Ohaneze in the east which are its equivalent,for now unlike their Hausa /Fulani and lgbo counterparts,the Yorubas have no ethnic or regional based party.

    While APGA currently has Chukwuma Soludo,Anambra state governor as the wind beneath its sail,(a duty he inherited from Peter Obi and Willie Obiano past governors of Anambra state) hence it is still thriving,unfortunately PRP do not have the such luxury luxury of having a seating governor or elected public officer as a member.

    So the party was tottering on the brinks of collapse,except now that things may be looking up for it as Kola Abiola has emerged as its 2023 presidential candidate.

    Incidentally,the only major ethnic group that has no regional party now is the Yoruba nation which is perhaps due to its unsuccessful experiment with ethnic parties UPN ,AD,ACN that prevented the Yorubas from ruling the roost on the national stage until the emergence of Olusegun Obasanjo as president in 1999 on the platform of PDP which is a pan Nigeria party.

    But given the present wrangling in the PDP bothering on the betrayal of the Goose That Lays The Golden Eggs,and regional/ethnic identity supremacy battle wreaking the havoc that is capable of tearing the party apart,l will not be surprised if after 2023 general elections,more regional and ethnic political parties re-emerge as the regions resolve to hold on to their local territories rather than cede them to a rampaging hegemony.

    That is my current reading of the tea leaves with respect to politics in Nigeria.

    The good news is that the storm that precipitated the dark clouds over the PDP can still be cleared as it has become apparent that the Furious Five (5) are open to reconciliation with the mother party.

    With the presidential election barely over 100 days away,the main party in opposition PDP, is racing against time and it must take reconciliatory measures to reunite itself with the aggrieved members  much more seriously and urgently.

    Let nobody be under the illusion that the Furious Five (5) have no capacity to transform into Five Undertakers of the PDP.

    If the harsh utterances from some members of the Furious Five (5), particularly Wike and Ortom that have been recorded in videos that have gone viral in which they were issuing vile comments about the PDP presidential candidate Turaki Atiku Abubakar or seen hobnobbing with members of the opposite parties are taken into consideration,then the path to Aso Rock Villa for the PDP may be very rough.

    My prayer is that the type of ill will that blew in its direction resulting in the misfortune of its inability to clinch the presidency in 2015 and 2019 would not befall the PDP once again.

    In the sad event that such a misfortune occurs,a post mortem to identify the poison that killed the party would easily reveal that it is basically the pride of not stooping to conquer when it was the efficacious antidote to an identified poison,that nailed its death coffin.

    As the saying goes ,pride goes after a fall.

    And my prayer is: may  such calamity not be the lot of the PDP.

     

    Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
    To continue with this conversation,pls visit www.magnum.ng

  • Why Naira redesign should be everyone’s cup of tea – By Magnus Onyibe

    Why Naira redesign should be everyone’s cup of tea – By Magnus Onyibe

    In elementary study of economics in secondary school,l learnt that during the global recession of 1933,inflation was so high that in then west Germany ,if someone bought a cup of tea in a cafe and he/she was having it,before finishing that one cup of tea so as to ask for another one,the price of the same cup of tea would have become higher.

    In fact l learnt that during those dark days in Germany despite re-denomination of their currency, it doubled every three (3)to four (4)days.
    That phenomenon was known as hyperinflation.

    And owing to that dramatic illustration,the phenomenon of hyperinflation got stuck in my adolescent memory.

    So,it was that idea of hyperinflation that was invoked or awakened in my mind a couple of weeks ago when my wife shared with me her experience in a cafe- Starbucks or Tim Hortons (l can not really remember which one,but somewhere in North America) where she stopped by to have some tea.

    She intended to have at least two cups while waiting for her friend to meet up with her.
    After the first cup,she ordered a second.
    When the bill arrived it was about $5 for each cup,tax inclusive.
    The total cost of $10 was paid.

    But as she exited the cafe,she quickly did a mental calculation of the value of $10 in naira terms and realized that it translated to $10×800=N8000 which was the prevailing dollar / naira exchange rate at that time,and l understand it is currently trading at about N900 which is N10 increase in less than two weeks.

    Before the current policy of naira redesign by the Central Bank of Nigeria,CBN under the governorship of Godwin Emefiele and with the express permission of president Mohammadu Buhari,my wife would not have been jolted that she is paying $5 for a cup of tea that would have been equivalent of a little more or less N500.

    In fact it would not have been my cup of tea if the CBN did not embark on naira redesign which has seen an already very weak naira crashing to an unprecedented low.

    So,my Better-Half was startled that with N800-$$1 exchange rate a cup of tea at $5 is translates to N4000 which is perhaps the cost of a whole pack of tea containing maybe 25-30 tea bags back home in Nigeria,she better keep her thirst for tea in check.

    Inevitably,the number of cups of tea that my wife buys in a cafe now matters to her,not just because of the drastic devaluation of the naira,but also owing to the rising rate of inflation at home which the National Bureau of Statistics,NBS puts at about 21%.

    However,given the reality that the cost of groceries and other essential commodities have not only also doubled,but even quadrupled in some cases,in reality inflation in Nigeria may be hovering around 30% that is at least 10% more than the number ascribed to it by NBS.

    As evidence that she has become sensitive to naira devaluation,my wife restrained herself from buying more cups of tea when the Naira/dollar exchange rate was N800/$1 irrespective of the fact that she has a fetish for tea of which she brings a wide variety back home, sometimes packed in a whole suit case whenever she travels to Europe or North America.

    What l have gleaned from that is that when the naira assumes its proper value,as it currently appears to be doing,the penchant to make purchases on impulse abroad by Nigerians would be curtailed.

    Of course,my wife’s experience can be extrapolated for millions of other Nigerians traveling abroad on business or holidays who are now more price sensitive following the dramatic and unprecedented crash of the naira.

    And it means that a devalued naira may be be compelling Nigerians to look inwards and likely become more self reliant than the policy of banning of the 41 items including tooth pick placed on import prohibition list for funding by the CBN introduced a few years ago by the apex bank governor,Godwin Emefiele.

    In effect,the metaphor of tea and the adventure of my wife in a cafe in North America is a practical illustration of the unintended,but the potential beneficial effect of the ongoing policy of naira redesign by the CBN on the economy.

    To buttress my point about the capacity of the new apex bank policy unintended positive effect,allow me share another narrative similar to the real life experience of my wife by another Nigerian to which l am a witness.

    While on holidays in Toronto,Canada,a family friend stopped by in a shop to make some purchases amongst which is a leather belt which he felt he needed.
    After making the purchase,he told the seller to bore more holes in it to enable him adjust it in the future incase he losses or adds weight around his waist.

    When he was informed that it would cost him $10 to punch each hole in his belt, totaling $20 for two holes,he demurred by telling the vendor that he had changed his mind and therefore not going ahead with the hole in the belt transaction.

    That is because he could not justify to himself why he would spend $20 cad which is the equivalent of $20 cad x N500 = N10,000 on boring two holes in his belt which can be done by a cobbler back home in Nigeria for as little as N1000.

    Hopefully,the second anecdote above would further underscore the sensational effect that the resultant naira devaluation is having on Nigerians especially as they travel around on business or holiday abroad.

    Without being told,it clearly demonstrates how a devalued naira can help our compatriots curb their unbridled taste for foreign made goods and services which are actually acquired taste that we can do without,if we chose to become more patriotic by consuming mostly what we can produce as opposed to consuming mainly what we do not produce,resulting in the bleeding of our treasury of hard earned forex which is currently dwindling,given that most of our crude oil,perhaps up to 80% is being stolen by international oil thieving syndicates.

    As readers must have noticed,l have only cited as examples micro transactions and not the mega projects like Dangote refinery and fertilizer firms construction costing multi billions of dollars to drive home the point of how Nigerians are responding to a weaker naira that is taming their taste for foreign made goods and services.

    In fact,one common reaction to the devaluation of the naira compared to other foreign currencies in the two narratives involving my wife and a family friend who is a Nigerian is their stimuli of rescinding their decisions to make the purchases abroad simply because they can be obtained for less at home.

    That is a voluntary abstinence and not compelled by rules or regulations as the CBN has done with the exemption of items to be imported via the official window and which is being circumvented through import /purchase of those banned items with foreign exchange funds obtained from the second widow,and the so called parallel or black market.

    In fact,l am tempted to believe that the black market rates that are about double the CBN rate may actually be the true value of the naira and not the CBN induced rate that is facilitated by the bi-monthly interventions with billions of dollars estimated to be in excess of $10 billion by some experts.

    Please take note that if the naira were to be N1/$1 as the ruling All Progressive Party,APC and it’s presidential candidate, now president Buhari had falsely promised Nigerians when they were seeking for the mandate of Nigerians to be the party and the candidate calling the shots in Aso Rock Villa in 2015 and 2019,the opposite of the reaction of restraint from impulsive purchases by Nigerians would occur.

    That is simply because our compatriots would not have been weaned of the exaggerated and wrong impression that the naira is strong or should be strong which is basically emotional and without fundamental economic underpinnings.

    In other words,both my wife who resisted buying more cups of tea in Starbucks/Tim Hortons and my Nigerian friend who wanted to bore more holes in his belt,but changed his mind would have respectively binged on tea and bored multiple holes in the belt if the naira had not been inadvertently devalued via the ongoing redesign initiative.

    And the interesting thing here is that these narratives are not hypothetical cases but real life situations and they could be extrapolated for multi billion dollars transactions.

    Basically,the lessons that are intrinsic in my wife and the Nigerian friend’s experiences illustrated with of a cup of tea and a belt above is that the more devalued our currency,the less Nigerians would make non critical purchases overseas. In other words,the lower the purchasing power of the naira abroad,the more they would look inwards as CBN governor,Emefiele had intended by banning 41 items for import using the CBN forex window.

    It is fascinating and critical that l emphasize that the real reason that Nigerians go on a binge abroad is because our currency- the naira is overvalued and it’s current dramatic devaluation is jarringly waking all of us up from our revelry of false confidence and exaggerated impression labout the value of the naira that has had negative effect on our economy.

    And it might astonish some Nigerians to learn that over valuation of the naira is in fact one of the two fundamental flaws (the second demon being petrol subsidy) wracking our economy and responsible for its being in turmoil and if you like on its knees.

    In the light of the reality above,the Chief Economic Adviser to president Buhari,professor Doyin Salami and my friend and brother,Professor Pat Utomi (both of whom are deans at PAN Atlantic University,Lagos) should come to my rescue in enlightening Nigerians on how a devalued naira can magnify and amplify the need for Nigerians to look inwards.

    Although,l stand to be corrected,but reportedly Utomi is the economic advisor to Peter Obi,Labor Party,LP presidential candidate.
    Just as l also understand that mr Mustafa Chike- Obi,another financial expert and former Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria,AMCON chief executive officer,may be playing the same role in the Bola Tinubu,APC presidential candidate’s team.

    They should all do well to advise their principals to add naira devaluation (not defending the naira as the CBN had been doing with an estimated $10 billion dollars) as part of the manifestos being packaged and presented to Nigerians by those jostling for the presidency of Nigeria in 2023 because it is in the best interest of Nigerians and Nigerian economy.

    That is as opposed to the N1-$1 that is the gimmick which was used to lure voters in 2015 and 2019 by the ruling party basically because majority of Nigerians believed that a stronger naira can be approximated to a stronger economy.

    In fact,as it has been demonstrated,the weaker the naira,the less interested would our nationals be in buying goods and services available in Nigeria from abroad.

    And that attitude of curtailing spending abroad would stem the hemorrhaging of the foreign exchange in the CBN treasury as it would enable us conserve our foreign exchange income as opposed to bleeding the treasury due to our uncontrollable appetite for foreign made goods.

    I urge Nigerians who may be skeptical about the proposition of the naira being better when weak to ponder why major countries of the world,especially the USA and China are always accusing each other of arbitrarily devaluing their currencies- the dollar and Yuan to make their goods more appealing to potential buyers outside of their shores.

    As Nigeria does not have finished goods and high technological services like equipment and machineries as the USA and China have to sell to the rest of the world except crude oil/gas whose price and supply is fixed by OPEC;it is unsurprising that her youthful workforce(dormant or untapped asset) has resorted to migrating to Europe,North America and some parts of the Middle East and Asia to earn foreign money which is in uncanny ways making up for the lack of capacity and ability to produce goods and services to sell to the world like the USA and China do.

    One only needs to picture the leadership position that Indians have taken in being at the helms of affairs in top ten(10) Fortune 500 companies to figure out the cumulative benefits of investing in education of our youths that would result in right tooling and equipping them to spread out throughout the world as India has done.

    For instance,foreign income remittances by Nigerians in the diaspora to Nigeria stands at N5.1 trillion in the first quarter of year 2022,according to statistics from the CBN.

    One can only imagine the exponential growth in foreign exchange income that would accrue into Nigeria if more Nigerians take up jobs abroad via proper migration processes to countries like the Uk that has been short of workforce since it’s exit from the European Union,EU.

    Based on a World Health Organization, WHO report in July this year,with remittances valued at $87 billion,India was the top remittance recipient among low- and middle-income countries,as per 2021 estimates. It is way ahead of China and Mexico’s $53 billion,the Philippines ($36 billion) and Egypt ($33 billion).

    Nigeria could earn much more than the N5.1trillion that it currently garners if our country decides to emulate India by mirroring its template in education of it’s populace.

    More so because Nigeria with a population in excess of 200m is to Africa what India is to South Asia and China is to Far East Asia.

    So,presumably,the more devaluation the naira goes through,the more determined Nigerians would be to earn foreign exchange from overseas as reflected by the current ‘japa’ syndrome (migration to foreign land to seek better livelihood ) which has sapped not just the health sector of workforce,but also the Information Technology,IT sector which is currently being drained and negatively impacting the financial services sector that is experiencing a dearth of skilled man power to manage their high technology departments.

    Brain drain in my reckoning is not really such a bad phenomenon,provided we are replenishing the workforce from our abundant potential Human Resources by equipping our youths with the right skills via education.

    Unfortunately and disappointingly,our country is not adequately funding education.
    It is such an irony that a paltry sum of N400 billion more or less is allocated to the education sector in the 2023 federal government appropriation bill/budget.

    Actually,it is such an avoidable and apparently embarrassing dilemma that a whooping N4 trillion was allocated in the 2022 budget and nearly N5 trillion had been reportedly spent on petrol subsidy ?

    The jeopardy in the education sector is further accentuated and complicated by the fact that eight (8) months of this year – from February to September students of tertiary institutions in our beloved country were out of school as ASUU,)Union of University and other higher institutions lecturers) embarked on industrial action in protest against under funding of tertiary institutions.

    News emanating from university circles is that the eight (8) months long industrial action by ASUU members that was presumed to have been resolved at the end of September,is about to be resumed because the fundamental issue which is lack of funds to settle lecturers emoluments has reared its ugly head again.
    And that is simply because authorities paid only half of the owed eighth (8th) month’s salary to the lecturers which is a failure on the part of government to fully keep to its part of the settlement bargain/ agreement which boils down to paucity of funds.

    And l had predicted in a piece that l earlier wrote on the probable solutions to the perennial ASUU strike that the funding paradigm for education should be changed from the current template, otherwise the aggrieved lecturers would be back in the trenches sooner or later if the fundamental issues of lack of adequate funding was not addressed by converting petrol subsidy to education subsidy.

    So,the imminent reoccurrence of another strike was more or less foretold.

    Going back to the issue of naira redesign and the reason it should be everyone’s cup of tea,it is worth pointing out that although the evolving outcome of the massive devaluation of the naira is not the original intention of president Buhari and CBN governor, Emefiele,it is a salutary outcome.
    That is because it has turned out to be a back door way out of the thorny issue of devaluing the naira which the incumbent government does not want to broach because it is against its campaign promises to make naira equal to the dollar and reduce petrol pump price to pre 2015 costs and these could only be achieved through subsidy.

    It may be recalled that the current ruling party at the center,APC had organized protests against the former regime that it defeated in 2015 based on those fantastic promises of making naira be at par with the dollar,with petrol pump price being reduced to single digits price if and when the party is voted into office.

    But seven (7) years and counting,it has not even been able to accomplish keeping the rate at the 2015 level as price has abysmally literally bottomed out on those two (2) campaign promises-naira/dollar rate and petrol pump price.

    The assertion above is underscored by the fact that president Buhari had rejected the proposal by his economic advisers that the naira should be devalued and petrol pump price subsidy be removed at the inception of his administration in 2015 which is about seven (7) and half (1/2) years ago.

    And it is unfortunate that the lack of will or inability of the current administration to make the painful but beneficial decisions to devalue the naira and remove petrol subsidy,has turned out to be the Achilles heels,albatross and sword of Damocles that have combined to destroy all the efforts at development made by Buhari administration in the past seven(7) and (1/2) years that it has been holding sway in Aso Rock Villa,Abuja.

    Does it make sense that our country squandered an estimated twenty (20) trillion naira on petrol pump price subsidy in the nearly eight (8) years of this administration while borrowing most of what has been spent on the much vaunted infrastructure development such as the reactivation of some railway lines and building of 3rd Niger bridge and a smattering of roads mainly in the north leading to a debt over hang of N41.60 trillion (USD100.07 billion) as at June ,2022?

    That is the reality about the financial health of our country according to data sourced from a press release from the Debt Management Office of the federal government on September 19,2022.

    When one adds the humongous sum applied in petrol subsidy to the multi trillion naira (estimatedly about ten($10) billion dollars that the CBN is believed to have spent in defending the naira against foreign currencies in the past seven (7) and half (1/2) years,readers can imagine why our country is in turmoil and the economy is in ruins.

    It is such an irony that about seven (7) and half (1/2) years after the inception of Buhari’s administration,devaluation of the naira which was despised and detested with passion by Aso Aso Rock Villa is taking place unwittingly before the very eyes of president Buhari who has inadvertently authorized its devaluation via the approval granted CBN for naira redesign.

    Imagine if that decision was made at inception of the administration seven (7) and half (1/2) years ago?
    I can bet that most likely,Nigerian economy would not be in the doldrums and Nigerians would not be in so much misery.

    Having set the naira free by default, another dramatic but positive decision that mr president Buhari should take is to bring forward the date for the end of petrol subsidy regime from June 2023 which is the date this administration is planning to end the obnoxious and economically debilitating practice to this present time and not a day or two after the exit of the current administration.

    I am unequivocally making the case that education should be subsidized not petrol simply because it would have direct positive impact on the quality of Human Resources coming out of Nigeria and like India our country could in another decade or two become what that south Asia country is currently to the world in terms of quality workforce export to the rest of the Western world.

    As most of us are well aware,education is a leveler. It is the difference between the doctor in the hospital and the cleaner working there too.That is a metaphor that l have often used to illustrate the critical need to invest heavily in education.

    It is my fervent belief that there are lots of hospitals cleaners today that could have been doctors if they had access to education via student loan programs that have proven to be workable and beneficial in the USA for instance and should be replicated here.

    Is it not telling and revealing that the pump price of petrol had already been increased multiple times under the incumbent administration,yet the common man that president Buhari is ostensibly protecting by not removing the subsidy,(although severely battered) is still surviving with his head above the water?
    Does that not suggest that our people are resilient?

    I can bet that the masses would be happier if their children can enjoy equal opportunities of receiving education to the highest level that their talent can take them like the children of the wealthy,than their offsprings being limited in their ability to attain higher educational heights due to lack of funds to pay exorbitant school fees and even inability of public schools to remain open owing to government’s incapacity to adequately remunerate lecturers etc .

    It is my good friend who is an economist and the incumbent governor of Edo state,Godwin Obaseki that recently remarked that the naira redesign initiative of the CBN is political.That may be true.

    And he probably took that position based on the perspective of his suspicion of the political agenda of the government at the center.
    But viewed from a broader prism and given the unintended outcome of devaluing the naira via the backdoor,if governor Obaseki would take a second look,he most probably would have another opinion about the naira redesign that may fortuitously result in the market correction of the value of the naira.

    My take on the naira redesign issue is that while a political game might have been the original intension,but the outcome of the action is tending towards being a market correction of some of the anomalies in Nigerian economy caused by multiple exchange rate regimes,(first and second windows)defined as official and black/parallel market rates that have been creating huge distortions in the economy.

    According to the CBN,and which is a narrative echoed by president Buhari,that he recently expressed on his way out of Nigeria for his medical check up in the United Kingdom,UK,the inadvertent devaluation of the naira denominations of N200,N500 and N1000 notes is not the intent of the authorities for the naira redesign.
    Rather president Buhari averred that:
    “People with illicit money
    buried under the soil will have a challenge with this but workers, businesses with legitimate incomes will face no difficulties at all,”

    Whether the CBN would successfully achieve its objective of getting the whopping N2.73 trillion which the apex bank’s governor,Emefiele said is 80% of cash outside the vaults of banks out of the N3.2 trillion in circulation as at September 2022,depends on if the currency hoarders that the policy is meant to trap are not effectively outsmarting them by buying up all the foreign exchange or hard currencies that they can lay their hands on and which has triggered the astronomical hike in the exchange rate of the naira to all other currencies.

    It would not surprise me if Nigerian currency hoarders,may be buying up both Indian rupees and even the very battered Ghanaian cedi just to find safe haven for the illicit money that they seem hell bent on keeping out of the purview of the CBN.

    As Oprah Winfrey,the American talk show icon once famously stated: “If you look at what you have in life,you’ll always have more. If you look at what you don’t have in your life,you’ll never have enough”

    That is a wise mindset that Nigerians must try to cultivate and imbibe.
    Nigeria has abundant Human Resources and that is what we must look at.

    Our country does not have Apple computers,iPhone, IPod, Amazon,Microsoft,Facebook and the likes from Silicon Valley,or movies from tinsel town/Hollywood as well as Boeing,cartapillar,Tesla,Ford,Chevrolet vehicles which are some of the products that the USA sells to the world;neither does she have the Huawei,Lenovo,Hisense Alibaba etc,produced in China and sold to the world.

    Taking to heart,Oprah Winfrey’s wise counsel,we should not be looking at the products that the USA and China have and we do not have.

    Rather,we should be looking at the abundant untapped Human Resources that we have (60% of our population are youths) and could be harnessed via giving them high end education in order to right-tool them to be fit for unleashing into the world as highly trained workforce in the manner that India has done and hence they are dominating the world of business by being in top leadership positions in Fortune 500 firms.
    That is what Nigerian leaders should be looking at.

    In the light of the above,if president Buhari truly wants to end his tenure in a blaze of glory,he should re-introduce student loans,remove petrol subsidy from
    Budget 2023/appropriation bill and divert the funds into intervention in the education sector now,six (6) months time.

    He should equally direct the CBN not to defend the naira after the deadline for the discontinuation of use of some of the denominations of the old currency on December 31,and the commencement of the use of the new one on January 15,2023.

    My point is that the naira should be allowed to float in order to eliminate the double windows for sourcing of foreign exchange that has made those who have special access to the top echelon of government extremely rich,while impoverishing the critical mass of Nigerians who do no have anything directly to do with the use of forex; and also do not own vehicles that use petrol, so subsidizing petrol and defending the naira have no direct impact on them.

    Why can’t government invest more in mass transit and have the labor unions operate it at subsidized rate?
    There are sundry local plants for assembling mass transit buses that could be patronized locally and in the process boost employment.

    Another money guzzling gambit of Buhari administration is the huge funds it is ploughing into its poverty alleviation scheme that entails paying of stipends to the poorest of the poor and the school children feeding farce that are enriching manipulative civil servants and their allies that are fleecing the masses in the guise of being food vendors/contractors.

    With the high level of corruption in our country,how success could have been achieved with such social welfare scheme remains puzzling to me.

    Pundits who are of the school of thought that too much intervention is distorting the economy are of the belief that other palliative measures to cushion the harsh effects of petrol subsidy removal and naira devaluation can be applied.

    And they are confident that sooner or later there will be equilibrium in the price of the dollar and petrol price.
    That mindset is hinged on the law of nature which states that what gos up must come down.

    Their reasoning is also premised on the belief that when less naira is chasing less dollars and with crude oil theft reined in or stopped and more forex is going into the CBN treasury,naira /dollar exchange rate would stabilize and petrol pump price would equally be less costly.

    And most importantly,all our children that are academically inclined and are yearning for education would be right tooled via education facilitated by student loans.

    After all when GSM or cell phone was first introduced in Nigeria in 1999,it was beyond the reach of the masses because it was way too expensive.
    Then Mike Adenuga’s GLO entered the market and introduced per second billing which made GSM telephone service more affordable and accessible to the masses.

    Today,it is estimated that over 100 million telephone lines have been sold to Nigerians and are being actively used.

    Is that not phenomenal and amazing that a service that was initially thought to be the exclusive preserve of the rich is now available to the poor ?

    If president Buhari summons the courage to take these hard,but necessary decisions,he would have changed the story of Nigeria significantly for good and history would not only be kind to him,posterity would also venerate him.

    Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur,public policy analyst,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
    To continue with this conversation,pls visit www.magnum.ng

  • Delta State, Season Of Garnering Honor And Fratricidal Crisis – By Magnus Onyibe

    Delta State, Season Of Garnering Honor And Fratricidal Crisis – By Magnus Onyibe

    This is indeed a season of jubilation generally for Deltans, the Anioma and particularly the lka nations whose sons and daughter have steadily and surely gotten into the center of gravity of power or hub of governance of the federal republic of Nigeria and beyond.

    And one of the reasons for celebrations is because history is also about to be made with incumbent governor of the state senator (Dr) lfeanyi Okowa who is currently the running mate to the presidential candidate of the People Democratic Party,PDP, Turaki Atiku Abubakar in the 2023 presidential contest truly becoming the number two (2) citizen of Nigeria,if PDP becomes the winner of the presidential contest after the forthcoming February 25 polls.

    That is on top of the good fortune of the state, in particular,Anioma and specifically Ika nations also being the homestead of the current Central Bank of Nigeria,CBN governor,Godwin Emefiele as well as being the origin of the current Chief of Defense Staff,CDS,general Lucky lrabor.

    How can l forget ,Dr Ngozi Okonjo-lweala,the first non-Caucasian Director General of World Trade Organization,WTO who hails from Ogwashi-Ukwu.

    So,it was a sort of harvest or bonanza of sorts when many deltans carted home most of the national awards dolled out by president Mohammadu Buhari in honor of some accomplished sons and daughters of Nigeria on Tuesday 11 October,2022.

    In fact it is only awardees from delta state that enjoyed the privilege of two (2) siblings receiving national awards on same podium and on the same day.

    And that is mr Tony Elumelu,founder of HEIRS holdings,a business conglomerate who received CFR and his younger brother,Ndudi Elumelu,OON,who is the current minority leader of the PDP in the House of Representatives.

    Other notable beneficiaries of the national awards range from traditional rulers comprising of their royal majesties and highnesses including :Dein of Agbor,Obi Ikenchukwu Kiaagborejuzi l,Olu of Warri,Ogiame Atuwase Ill and Ovie of Agbon kingdom ,Ogunrimeme Ukori l,and the director general of World Trade Organization,WTO, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala,plus a couple of renown banking titans; notably Jim Ovia,chairman/founder of Zenithbank,Tony Elumelu,Chairman of UBA,as well as Victor Etuoku,Deputy Managing Director of Access Corporation, including military top brass,General Lucky Irabor,who is the current Chief of Defense Staff,CDS.

    The other deltans honored are members of the political class including governor of the state ,Ifeanyi Okowa,deputy senate president,Ovie Omo-Agege and of course,minority leader of the House of Representatives,Ndudi Elumelu alongside other professionals of delta state origin from a broad spectrum of activities particularly in the media and oil/gas sectors including prince Nduka Obaigbena,publisher of Thisday newspaper and chairman of Arise Tv network as well as founder/owner of the RainOil,Gabriel Ugbechie and Julius Rone proprietor of UTM Oil/gas services,not forgetting Itsay Sagay, a legal luminary and a host of others too numerous to be listed here.

    Hopefully,in tandem with the aphorism : charity begins at home,there would be a positive net effect of the good fortunes of the aforementioned delta state sons and daughter appointed into the high command or top echelon of the honor’s list of our great father land rubbing off on the good people of the ‘Big Heart’ state legendary for excellence in basically all facets of endeavors in our society ranging from sports ,art and culture,academia to media and financial institutions management and ownership.

    But despite all the lofty and enviable accomplishments enumerated above that have put delta state head and shoulders above the other states owing to its wealth of illustrious fathers,sons and daughters,the state and it’s good people are often blighted by the purveyors of treachery that are magnifying the vortex of political power struggle in which the state is currently caught up and is capable of unhinging it from its steady path to collective progress and development in the best interest of the good people of the state that is the indisputable treasure trove of our beloved country and a microcosm of Nigeria as it is made up of multiplicity of ethnic groups.

    Without a scintilla of doubt,it is the instrumentality of rotation of the governor-ship of the state between the three senatorial districts-Delta North,Central and South,comprising of Anioma ,Urhobo and Ijaw,ltsekiri/lsoko people respectively,birthed and nurtured by the class of 1999 political leaders of the state that is the reason politics and politicking have been relatively less fractious as each senatorial zone waits for its turn to produce the next governor after two terms of the last governor from the three (3)rotating zones.

    That is basically why,regardless of its diversity in ethnic composition politics in the state has been remarkably stable since the return to multi party democracy in 1999.

    The harmonious political atmosphere in
    the state is a reflection of the fact that its people,although of multi ethnic groups are not roiled by ethnic differences that could result in strifes because there is mutual assurance that power would rotate between the all the zones accordingly.

    That is not the case in the larger Nigerian state where the principle of rotation of presidency between the north and south has not worked out well and as such,power sharing between the multiple ethnic and religious groups in the country has degenerated into a contentious and incendiary issue threatening to result in conflagration of the country.

    It is an anomaly which the PDP presidential candidate,Turaki Atiku Abubakar,AA has promised to correct if elected president in February next year.

    In an essay titled:”2023 Presidency Of Nigeria: Where Are The Igbo Candidates?”published in the mass media on October 29,2021,l had made a strong case for the lgbos to align with AA and assign one of their own as his vice presidential candidate to prepare him for the presidency,perhaps in 2027.

    And it was refreshing that the PDP presidential flag bearer at a recent consultation meeting with the lgbos during his trip to the east pledged that he would hand over to an lgbo person after his tenure if elected in the February 24,2023 polls.

    That is at least light at the end of the tunnel for the lgbos as the current adventure by Peter Obi and Labor party towards clinching the presidency in 2023 in my view would be a very long shot if not mission impossible given that the odds are stacked against the candidate and his platform irrespective of the impressive activation of youth interest in politics by Obi candidacy.

    With respect to the struggle for the governor-ship of delta state, it is relieving that the tussle for who would be the gubernatorial flag bearer of the current ruling party in the state,PDP has been resolved following the Supreme Court verdict of last October 21 in favor of the speaker of delta state House of Assembly,Sherriff Oborovwori.

    Therefore,since the storm is over,it is now time for healing.

    At this juncture,as time for silence is over,it is pertinent that l share my reservations (which l had withheld) about the outburst of a government hireling and apologist that had attacked me after l published an article titled: “Rising And Falling Of Delta State Political Family And Consequences “where l called for a truce before things get really unhinged between the gladiators jostling for the gubernatorial ticket immediately after the ruling party’s primaries in Delta state on 25 May,2022.

    Ordinarily,l do not pay attention to polemics by ponies,especially of the pernicious hue who l detest engaging with as l reckon that they are actually attention seeking rabble rousers bent on rankling those who bother to pay them attention.

    But in this instance,l have resolved to make an exception as l have realized
    that it is a mischievous and overzealous employee of delta state government or an acolyte that engaged in the unwholesome practice of denigrating my person via the unfounded allegations against me after twisting facts in a vile article titled: “Re:Rising And Falling Of Delta State Political Family And Consequences”.

    And to achieve the objective of healing on both sides of the internecine war ,there is need to underscore the facts about my article that dwelt on the fratricidal crisis.

    The indecorous piece purportedly written by one Andy Chukwuma made the rounds in the media,particularly EagleOnline of June 3,2022.

    Frankly,l can not discern the reason that a simple and straight forward matter such as calling for an amicable settlement of a PDP family feud would warrant the hyperventilation of that fellow that decided to dance naked in the public square with the sinister intention of dragging my name into the mud in a futile attempt to tarnish my hard earned reputation of balanced public intellectualism.

    The bid to diminish and if possible, demonize me is a mission apparently triggered by the misinterpretation of the issues that l raised in the aforementioned media intervention,“Rising And Falling Of Delta State Political Families And Consequences” published on the back pages of Daily Independent newspaper of 31 May 2022 and Thisday newspaper of 03/06/22 plus other media platforms.

    The article was focused on the potentially calamitous fall out of the PDP party primaries in delta state held on Wednesday 25 May,2022.

    In analyzing the process of recruiting gubernatorial candidates to fly the flags of political parties in the forthcoming general elections,l had identified some flaws inherent in the present and existing political arrangement such as the enormous and overbearing influence and by extension vice grip that governors have on party delegates and harped on the need to revisit the rules to create a level playing field for all stakeholders in the political game.

    Referencing the party primary elections in delta state which l witnessed as a case in point and by acknowledging the well known fact that gubernatorial candidates not favored by their state governors were literally mauled unduly by the governors preferred candidates,the pony who wrote the unintelligible rebuttal threw caution to the wind in the desperate bid to savage me.

    But his skullduggery has fallen flat as it has become an implicating narrative or indictment of governor lfeanyi Okowa who the impetuous author of the satanic piece was perhaps trying desperately to protect.

    Hear is how he tried to also humiliate past governors by discrediting their efforts in organizing past party primaries and in the process diminished the incumbent governor: “Some of us remember quite well how under Governors James Ibori and Emmanuel Uduaghan,party primaries were a sham because results were written in the bedrooms of the powers that be.”

    Considering that Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan’s “sham” party primary as the author claims is what produced Dr Ifeanyi Okowa as governor in 2015,has he not inadvertently shot himself in the foot by disparaging and discrediting the process of emergence of his principal,Dr Okowa as governor?

    Also,is it not foolhardy that it is the governor Ibori organized party primaries now tagged “sham” by the obviously footloose aid that produced governor Uduaghan under whom Dr. Okowa served as Secretary to state government,SSG for four (4) years before becoming a senator and subsequently governor under another ‘sham’ process by governor Uduaghan that produced Okowa?

    Why and who commissioned the fellow to engage in such a reprehensible exercise that has turned out to be a sort of gobbledygook because the write-up is laced with gibberish,ambiguities and contradictions?

    In fact the motivation for the shadow chasing author that tried to malign me and ended up ridiculing the PDP and its past and present leaders has left most men and women of goodwill in delta state worried and distressed because they understand the foundation of the political harmony that has held delta state aloft for the PDP in the past 23 years of the practice of democracy in our clime and are sensitive to what was at stake,which is that the ability to retain the state in PDP fold was in jeopardy,if the threat of split up of the party via infighting was allowed to persist.

    Not done with his goofs and gaffes,the so called Andy Chukwuma who is likely to be phantom,(since l have never heard of how much more meet him) made another allegation that conjures up the anecdote “mirror,mirror who is the fairest of them all” which is a cliche associated with the fable ‘Snow White’ an 18th century German fairy tale about an evil queen with skills learnt from a huntsman that she is hell bent on using to hunt down the daughter of the king whom she had murdered.

    Is it not an open secret that governor Okowa who is a foundation member of delta state PDP political family is more of a beneficiary of chief Ibori’s political largesse than onyibe that the nefarious author of the obnoxious article was hell bent on deriding and disparaging in his spiteful write- up!

    Here is how the author pontificated about me.
    “I was at the meeting at the Government House,Asaba, in which Onyibe’s benefactor, Ibori, was present ….”

    Strikingly, the same “lbori , Onyibe’s benefactor” had earlier appointed,Dr. Okowa as commissioner of Agriculture in 1999,Health in 2003 and persuaded Governor Uduaghan to appoint same Okowa,SSG in 2007, before the same lbori again helped same Okowa to win the gubernatorial contest in delta state in 2015.

    Is the narrative above not simply a testimony of consistency by allies who have weathered storms together that are expected to continue to break new grounds together?

    I believe it should be glaring to deltans and all participants in and most watchers of delta state politics that for four (4) times and throughout chief lbori’s 8 years stewardship as governor (1999-2007)and beyond,in fact up to 2015,he lifted governor Okowa politically.

    And l believe Dr Okowa is eternally grateful for the political support that he received from Ibori.

    Yet,to facilitate the sinister motive of the mischievous author,Ibori is tagged as Onyibe’s benefactor.
    How cavalier!

    Readers would agree with me that there is hardly any other politician in Delta state that has benefited more from chief lbori as governor and later as a political leader in the state since 1999 than governor Okowa and perhaps Emmanuel Uduaghan.

    Why the wild allegation that my suing for peace and unity of delta state PDP family was merely because l am a benefactor of ex governor lbori,while down playing the fact that l am indeed a peace maker, and if you like ,pacifist advocating for peace in PDP family that offered me the opportunity of public service between 2003-7.
    Clearly,that twisted narrative by the said Chukwuma was aimed at impinging on my Integrity.

    In an ideal situation,governor Okowa who between him and ex governor Uduaghan are by far the number one (1) and two(2) beneficiaries of lbori’s political odyssey should have given a comeuppance to whoever initiated and paid the pony that penned the pedantic diatribe for such intransigence.

    But politics in delta state at that time was in the doghouse.

    Hopefully,now that all sides of the conflict have sheathed their swords,the governor would do the needful by setting the process in motion for the healing of the unnecessary wounds inflicted while the fratricidal war lasted.

    In any case,it has remained somewhat difficult to decipher why the imprudent author of the hubris glorified as a rebuttal attempted to pervert facts by embarking on that voyage of destruction of the very fabric of unity that had been prevailing in the PDP political family in delta state.

    Which is why it would be unsurprising if owing to the negative blow back of the political differences between governor Okowa and ex governor Ibori which has been compounded by the poorly executed hatchet job by Chukwuma’s vituperations; the governor might have detested the scurrilous rebuttal (owing to the distractive and destructive content) to the extent that he might have mulled firing that lass that goes by the name Andy Chukwuma (or his sponsor) for being such a gnat.

    And the fellow who is obviously challenged in his comprehension of simple English language and exhibited his shallowness by contradicting himself in his interpretation of the comment wherein I was referring to the current internecine war within the PDP family after the primaries,which he preferred to convert in his mind into post election violence in the state to which he focused his rants thus :

    “Onyibe must have been so surprised,or should I say disappointed,that a week after the successful primary,Delta State is enjoying peace and stability without the contentions and violence associated with party primaries in the past.”

    For the avoidance of doubt “internecine war” in the context of my article means internal conflict or rift within PDP family with its baseline being 1999 founding members.

    And what is more,the rift that l called attention to in my piece that enraged the author of the diabolic rebuttal is currently a real and present danger tormenting the PDP family in delta state.

    That is underscored by the fact that with governor Okowa deviating from a substantial part of the subsisting governorship rotation arrangement between the three senatorial zones by picking his successor outside of the class of 1999,the PDP family became divided and the reality is that a new political family may be in the offing if his plans sail through with Oborefovwori winning and becoming governor in 2023.

    That is simply the kernel of my thesis and the true state of affairs in PDP family in delta state at that time and till date.

    I made the case in that piece that any claim to the contrary would be a denial of reality and today that prognosis has manifested with the emergence of Oborovwori who would most likely herald a new era of governance of the state outside of the class of 1999.

    Clearly, “Violence associated with party primaries” is not within the ambit of my essay,therefore it is an illusory optic of the author of the satanic piece whose purpose although stealthy was to escalate the simmering discontent in the PDP family in the state from a mere spat into a crisis situation.

    At this point in time,it is worth being optimistic that the intervention of elders with a view to restoring harmony in the party by applying soothing balm on the wounds of the loser by the winner in a battle that went all the way to the Supreme Court,would restore the party to its erstwhile status of having a formidable grip and firm hold on delta state politics that would enable it successfully fend off the aggression from the APC which is incidentally being driven by original PDP members who have cross carpeted from the PDP to APC.

    But the vain glorious boast of infallibility of PDP by the goon that wrote the scurrilous rejoinder is perhaps because he was expecting worse crisis in the political space after the primaries and its absence has lulled him into denying the existential threat to PDP family’s cohesion if and when the friction is allowed to fester.

    It needs being emphasized that no primaries conducted by both chief Ibori and Dr Uduaghan resulted in violence.
    So violence by supporters after the primaries in delta being alluded to is a figment of the imagination of Chukwuma whose optic and understanding of internecine war is violent riots.

    It is probably because he has not heard of and can not phantom the aphorism ‘still waters run deep’.
    Meaning that the appearance of
    tranquility on the surface does not always preclude or vitiate the fact that there may be a sort of molten magma of anxiety below that may be waiting to erupt in volcanic manner and which thankfully as earlier stated,elders imbued with wisdom are addressing.

    In light of the nihilistic motive of Chukwuma,the self styled aficionado of delta state politics,which can be discerned from his distorted and disturbing narrative and convoluted conclusions,one is led to believe that he may be a mole with malevolent intentions and not truly a PDP member.

    By casting aspersions on my person,he intended to vitiate my neutrality by impinging on my integrity so that my assessment in the referenced opinion piece may be invalidated.

    Hence Chukwuma (assuming there is anyone by that name) referred to David Edevbie as my friend and reason l was defending him.

    How could l have been defending Edevbie unduly,when l stated the facts without equivocation that he and other contestants were mauled by Sherrif Oborefovwori the winner of the contest, who is the governor’s preferred candidate because of the pole position which governors occupy in the matter of elections conducted at sub national levels where they are in total control of all political activities in their jurisdictions?

    Who does not know that as the leaders of the parties in the states ,governors often
    have full control of the political structures in their respective states,so they can do and undo?
    It is a reality that is incontrovertible.

    By no stretch of imagination did l single out the governor of delta state to accuse him of any unwholesome practice,but l duly observed without fear or favor that the outcome of the party primaries in delta as well as other states in the federation is a systemic political leadership recruitment flaw which is diminishing democracy as a system of government at the sub national level.

    To buttress the point that l was making which is that party primary elections at sub national levels are suboptimal,I even stated that in other states where the governors were supporting their preferred successors,the other contestants scored far less than Edevbie and senator James Manager earned in Delta state .

    That implies that governor Okowa’s grip on the delegates via taking undue advantage of the vulnerable process of producing candidates through party primaries at the state level is not as iron clad as it is was in other states,since governors all over the country have a sort of vice grip on the delegates simply because of the dictum: ‘he who pays the piper dictates the tune.’
    Is that not a truism?

    Given the underlying factors,l proposed that the rules governing party primary elections at the sub national level should be reviewed and my recommendation is for a wholistic rejiggering of the system by legislators in the course of future electoral process reforms and not just in delta state,but nationwide .

    It is worthy of note that president Buhari in the course of rallying the support of APC governors for an agreement on his choice of a presidential candidate to fly the flag of the party had even alluded to the fact that outgoing governors currently enjoy the liberty of ‘delivering ‘ their preferred candidates as l had stated in the media intervention giving the author of the abrasive rebuttal prickly heat and indigestion.

    So,governors unwholesome grip on delegates is not only a statement of fact,it is also common knowledge.
    Therefore,the conclusion by the hatchet job man that l was unduly defending Edevbie because he is my friend via the statement below is simply hollow and puerile because it is tantamount to defending the indefensible.
    He wrote:His pain and frustration were palpable in his desperate attempt to discredit the Delta State PDP gubernatorial primaries,in which his friend, David Edevbie lost.
    And so,for him that means that Delta State is headed in the wrong direction “

    Unknown to the obviously lazy writer who did not engage in any modicum of research before spewing the hogwash is that in fact the opposite is the case.
    That is because Edevbie who worked under Governor Okowa as commissioner for finance and later as chief of staff until a few months ago,is more of Dr Okowa’s friend than l am to David Edevbie.

    Even more so because both Okowa and Edevbie had served under ex Gov lbori as commissioners from 1999-2007 which is a period of 8 years plus another six (6) years or so of Okowa governorship during which David worked under him both as finance commissioner and chief of staff.

    And to contrast the miss leading conclusions of the ignorant hatchet writer on an ignoble mission,l only worked with both Edevbie and Okowa as a fellow commissioner under chief Ibori’s watch from 2003-7 which is not more than four (4) years.
    When put in proper context,l am actually the outsider when it comes to working and personal relationships between Dr Okowa chief Edevbie and l.

    So,based on the logic above,chief Edevbie is really more of governor Okowa’s friend than mine because they worked together from 1999-2022 and l only worked with both for four (4) years,2003-7.

    After all it is common knowledge that Chiefs of Staff,CoS and finance commissioners are always close confidants of governors or presidents.

    Take Mike Ogiadume who was CoS to former president Goodluck Jonathan. These leaders that became buddies when they served as deputy governors to chiefs Luck Igbinedion and Depriye Alamiesegha of both Edo and Bayelsa states respectively, and have remained so both in and out of office.

    So also was Abba Kyari of blessed memory that is the immediate past Chief of Staff,CoS to president Mohammadu Buhari who was his close confidant and long term ally before he appointed him into the role.

    The truth is that Okowa might have fallen out with Edevbie hence he did not support his governorship ambition,but that is a different kettle of fish.

    I went into details about relationships and friendships in the PDP political family in delta state to drive home how far that cheeky and vile fellow was willing to go to demonize erudite leaders who labored to build and nurture the PDP fait that was flourishing before the conflict that we are all currently scrambling to quell l.
    The pattern of solid and broken friendships amongst the PDP family members may even be deemed a common practice or trend given that Dr Emmanuel Eweta Uduaghan,Okowa’s predecessor that was also his best friend at a point in time was also not favorably disposed to Okowa’s bid to succeed him in 2015 until the intercession by ex governor lbori.

    So,the political chicanery that precedes transition from one member of the PDP family to another in delta state is all too familiar. It is like the succession feuds that define traditional rulers transfer of power from one ruling house to the other such as the recent cases in Warri in delta state and Oniru in Lekki, lagos state or chieftaincy tittle tussles and rivalries between individuals all over the country.

    The aphorism:in politics there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies,holds true in this instance because politicians can easily switch from being friends to villains in the twinkling of an eye for political gains as has been the case in delta state political family.

    In the light of the above analogy,my assessment of the post party primaries atmosphere in delta state was at-arms-length and an exercise that captured the political dynamics of that time with a view to restoring and fostering unity which had taken flight from the party owing to the acrimonious fight for the gubernatorial ticket by the Speaker of the Delta State House of Assembly,DTSH on one side and former Chief Of Staff to the governor on the other side that created two factions in the party with the risky potential of splitting up the party that used to be one big family.

    Apparently,the potential splintering of the party does not feature in the mindset of the media hitman who further argued that he could infer from my piece that l was not only unduly supporting Edevbie,l was also advocating for the class of 1999 to continue to hold on to the reins of political power in delta state.

    Although,he once again goofed on that score because l am not a member of the class of 1999,but in any case,what’s wrong with that objective ?

    After all,self preservation they say is the first rule of nature.
    Is that not so ?

    What’s more,Governor Okowa is a beneficiary of the 1999 cohort initiative of succeeding one another because like Edevbie he was appointed a commissioner by chief lbori in 1999 and that is the pedestal that he leveraged,perhaps on merit to become delta state governor in 2015 and the current Vice Presidential candidate of the PDP for 2023 elections.

    The statement below is a another revelation of how inconsistent and contradictory the pony writer was in his narrative aimed at casting aspersions on my proposition for peace,as he in one breath vilified me for his presumption that l am promoting the concept of sustaining a pre-existing system,then in another breath he promoted the same sustenance of dynasty that he is taking umbrage against me for being in support of.
    “Governor Okowa kept his card to his chest but allowed every interested person to contest as has been the practice since 2007”
    Readers should focus on the line “… as has been the practice since 2007”

    While it is okay for him to vaunt the retention of a practice that has been operated since 2007 on one hand,on the other hand,he is excoriating me for his perception that l am wishing that the class of 1999 retains the leadership of the state .

    In my piece that is obviously irksome to him and his ilk,l stated that it is up to the incumbent governor to change the political leadership game or sustain it.
    And he did the latter,rather than the former of which he is well within his right to do,and l have no qualms with that.

    Continuing with his diabolical diatribe,the author of the wishy washy rebuttal argued thus: “You can discern from the foregoing that Onyibe’s idea of power rotation is that it should circulate among members of his political class of 1999. What an insult! Imagine Obasanjo insisting that future Presidents of the country should always come from among his coterie of ministers, advisers, and political associates”

    Of course having his men/women and his party retain the occupancy of Aso Rock Villa was the desire of OBJ and the PDP, hence he midwifed and curated the hand over to his successor,Umaru Yar’adua of blessed memory who is the younger of his former boss Shehu Musa Yar’adua.

    It is also why a former PDP chairman,late Vincent Ogbulafor at the peak of PDP reign boasted that the party that he led would rule Nigeria for another 60 years or even in perpetuity.

    But in line with the conventional wisdom,man proposes,God disposes,the political equation that changed in 2015 was fueled by PDP family internal conflict that remained unsettled until the APC snatched power from them as the party was breaking up instead of building up.

    In an uncanny way,Andy Chukwuma can be likened to the late Ogbulafor and PDP leadership at that time under former Goodluck Jonathan that failed to recognize the real and imminent threat to then ruling party at the center,PDP that other parties were coalescing into one formidable force to challenge it,so it had to be prepared to defend its tuft.
    May such misfortune not befall delta state PDP family in the current dispensation.

    At the risk of repeating my self,if adequate care is not taken,a similar fate that befell the PDP leading to the loss of the presidency in 2015 owing to absence of proactive thinking may become the lot of PDP family in delta state due to the lackadaisical attitude initially exhibited by the leaders.

    Meanwhile,Andy Chukwuma railed against the class of 1999 as if he is canceling out the fact that Dr Okowa who is currently the state governor and vice presidential candidate of PDP had been an associate of lbori as a commissioner from 1999 to 2007 and an SSG to Dr Uduaghan from 2007 to 2011.

    With governor Okowa being an associate of Ibori as a member of that cohort of 1999 till date,does it not indicate that the governorship of the state has been circulating amongst that class until the speaker Sherriff Oborovwori became the candidate for the forthcoming 2023 contest?

    Is the author’s nauseating postulations against the class of 1999 not so illogical as it validates what he termed an insult that l was advocating for the class of 1999 to continue to be at the helm of affairs in Osadebe House seat of power in Asaba?

    For the records,apart from suing for peace and reconciliation in delta state PDP family,the other key message that l basically conveyed in that article was that there are flaws in the process of recruiting our political leaders at the grass roots level as evidenced by the exercise in delta state and proposed that the next National Assembly,NASS should consider a further review of the electoral laws,particularly at the grass roots level as has been done with the reforms of the electioneering process at the national level via the introduction of electoral act 2022 such that state independent electoral commissions can be more independent and perhaps as independent as Independent National Electoral Commission,INEC.

    In fact the need to review the electoral process at the grass roots level was first mooted to me by Ostia Chidoka ,one time aviation minister under ex president olusegun Obasanjo.

    He did so after the Electoral Act 2022 was passed by NASS and accented to by president Buhari early this year.He is of the view that since the national electoral law has been strengthened via the passage of electoral act 2022, that the grass roots equivalent needs to be equally made more robust.

    I agreed with him and was waiting for an opportune time to make the case.
    But the flaws observed during the delegates election in Delta state which l personally witnessed made it more stark, poignant and urgent to me.

    That is why l made the case in the article that riled up that harbinger of disaster and merchant of falsehood that in his overzealous bid to curry favor from his paymasters ended up inflicting more damage on an already fractured PDP family in delta state .

    So,by and large,my essay on the challenge faced by candidates unfavored by state governors was primarily advisory to PDP political family in Delta state as l was signposting the danger of lossing the state politically to APC if the chasm caused by the ruckus that arose from the party primaries and the subsequent crises that it has stirred up in the political family that has been thriving since 1999 remain unattended to with a view to settling it before the general elections scheduled to be held on February 25 and March 11.

    But owing to their affliction with myopia,the ponies in the media team of the opposing camp elected to demonize me instead of providing counterbalancing facts,if there are any to debunk the case that l made for rapprochement between them and the other party in the family feud before the strain in the relationship amongst members of the class of 1999 literally spills into streets.

    In my final analysis,I am disappointed that the author of the divisive article could not add any value in terms of specificity by itemizing his grouse and counterbalancing them with verifiable facts that are unassailable in the rebuttal. Instead he stoked more fire with his half truths and hallucinations.

    And he also claimed that APC people are cross carpeting into PDP without proof.
    But chief Kenneth Gbagi, ex minister of state , Education,and one of the contestants in the PDP primaries has moved with his supporters into another party where he is flying the party’s gubernatorial flag.

    Surely,the fellow who wrote the voodoo essay must be someone living in denial hence he failed to recognize the present existential threat to PDP monopoly of power in Delta state,otherwise he would not be fomenting such trouble that is avoidable and could accentuate the chasm in the beleaguered party.

    So,l am assuming that Andy Chukwuma or whoever he is a surrogate to is unwarrantedly attacking me by twisting the contents of my article just to tar me black in order to curry favor from governor Okowa and the now confirmed governorship candidate for 2023,speaker Oborovwori,both of whom l presume would have by now had a more holistic grasp of the issues that l raised in the referenced media intervention and a

    Presumably,to the chagrin of the ‘hired gun’ he has failed in his nefarious enterprise.

    In any case,attempts to assassinate one’s character after speaking the truth to authorities is one of the hazards that public policy analysts face everyday as they put their professional lives on the line by contending with the risk of being assailed by impetuous political job men who have no limits to what they would do to savage the integrity of patriots who speak up no matter whose ox is gored.

    As the saying goes ‘a stitch in time saves, nine’ so l expect PDP family in delta state to urgently ratchet up fence mending efforts to rebuild the broken tapestry of trust which is a fallout of the keenly and gallantly contested party primaries.

    That is the traditional practice after party primaries that pitched family members against each other,are over .

    At the national level,the presidential candidate of the PDP,Turaki Atiku Abubakar and APC flag bearer,Asiwaju Bola Tinubu have already embarked on fence mending efforts to heal the bruises inflicted on those who got the wrong end of the stick during the primary contests.

    My desire is that the PDP family in Delta state emulates what is happening at the national level by fixing the torn fabric of trust without further delay.

    It is the motive for writing the article at issue immediately after the party primaries five (5)months ago,and it remains so,right now.

    Commendably,although peace within the party is still fragile,the gubernatorial candidate of delta state and current speaker of the house of assembly,Sherriff Oborovwori has pledged to do same or is already doing some fence mending.

    More so as his challenger in the contest for the ticket,chief David Edevbie has exhibited good sportsmanship by conceding defeat and publicly congratulating the eventual winner, speaker Oborovwori.

    By and large,presumably my noble call for a timely and peaceful resolution of the crisis within the party immediately after the primaries is being heeded as the party gears up to face a formidable foe in the general elections early next year.

    Although,it may be coming slowly,but surely peace and harmony in the PDP family are the irreducible minimum requirements for what might turn out to be a successful 2023 governor-ship run by Sherrif Oborefovwori in delta state.

    So,it would be such a happy ending if retaining the control of Delta state by PDP as one family becomes the crowning glory to the harvest of national honor that indigenes of the state from all facets of our society recently received.

    But in the unlikely event that PDP loses the gubernatorial elections,what the leadership of the party may look back in regret to is that it failed to act pragmatically, dexterously and on time to save itself from an internal implosion that was avoidable.
    And that would be stunningly disheartening.

    Magnus onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst,author,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
    To continue with this conversation,pls visit www.magnum.ng