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  • Moment of truth as Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket tests Nigeria’s unity – By Magnus Onyibe

    Moment of truth as Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket tests Nigeria’s unity – By Magnus Onyibe

    Right now, the choice of presidential and Vice Presidential candidates for the 2023 general elections in Nigeria is the number one horror afflicting the psyche of Nigerians.

    It is so much so that if a nation wide public opinion were to be conducted right now, the tendency that majority of Nigerians would tick-off the box concerning the tension arising from the presidential candidate of the ruling party at the center, APC Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s choice of Kashim Shetima as running mate for the 2023 presidential contest as their biggest concern in this present time is very high.

    That is most especially if the opinion poll were to be conducted amongst members of the Christian and Muslim faiths to whom it has become a supremacy battle more than members of the political class.

    And the distress is not only from the ruling party at the centre, APC.

    To a lesser degree,the main opposition party,PDP’s decision to jettison the presidency rotation principle that the party had practiced since 1999, and throw it open to all the zones which has enabled its 2019 presidential candidate ,Turaki Atiku Abubakar to clinch it; is also a source of prickly heat and discontentment amongst voters,especially in the south-east and south-south zones of the country which have been the traditional stronghold of the party.

    While the irritations caused by what critics see as an volte-face by the PDP is less caustic,the Muslim-Muslim ticket being presented by the APC is justifiably on the lips of every Nigerian-both politically conscious and religion sensitive.

    Even as some deem the Muslim-Muslim presidential candidacy as a non issue,a lot see it as toxic and corrosive,depending on their religion and ethnic biases. This is as opposed to resorting to partisanship which used to be the main criteria for supporting or opposing presidential and vice presidential candidates.

    In fact,as the issue of religion has been dragged into the political mix ,following the introduction of a Muslim-Muslim ticket for the presidency by Tinubu and Shettima,and since the faith composition of Nigerians is more or less a balanced equation of 50/50’, who becomes president of Nigeria,now matters to all of us-politicians and those that were apolitical.

    Hence it is being discussed amongst a vast majority of Christians and Muslims alike in churches and mosques as well.

    Before now,choosing a vice presidential candidate was just a routine chore for presidential candidates.And the equation was simple because it was always about walking the fine lines of religion and ethnicity. While the framers and writers of 1999 constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria were conscious of the religious and ethnic fault lines which have now widened into a gulf,they did not factor it into or incorporate it in our country’s statutes book expressly,so that crossing the line via a Muslim-Muslim or Christian-Christian ticket would be an outright violation and contravention of the laws of land.Instead of incorporating it into the constitution,it was not codified, but only recognized and treated as a mere understanding.

    It is in pursuance of that balance that the religious sensitivities of Nigerians who are sharply divided along the lines of the two predominant faiths- Christianity and lslam, that when a Christian emerges as a presidential candidate,a muslim was chosen as the vice presidential candidate,and vice versa.

    That was the case when after independence,and our country was operating a parliamentary system, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa became prime minister.And to strike a balance,Nnamdi Azikiwe became Governor General. It did not matter that the office of the former was executive,while that of the latter was merely ceremonial.

    Some Nigerians still romanticize that period of parliamentary system of government 1960-66 which they fondly refer to with nostalgia as the ‘golden age’ of Nigeria that they would love our beloved country to return,if they can literally push back the hands of time.

    That aspiration is underscored by the fact that back in those days,there was healthy competition amongst the four regions in our country and development,progress and prosperity of the people in respective the regions reflected the amount of vigor and acumen applied in harnessing and managing the natural resources endemic in each of them.That is because Nigeria was basically a natural resource exporting country to Europe and the rest of the world.

    As such,the north was doing its utmost best to grow and harvest Cotton that was grown in Funtua area of katsina state that was feeding the textile miles in kaduna, the headquarter of the region.And that engagement was creating employment and generating revenue for the government via taxes.

    Groundnut farming and processing into vegetable /edible oil was also flourishing in the northern region as it is also native to the zone and therefore a veritable employment creator via the factories and another major source of tax income.

    A similar scenario was also present in the eastern region where oil palm was its main stay,and coal from the mines endemic in the area sustained the economy that was booming in and around Enugu,the headquarter of the region.The western region with cocoa as its main cash crop,and which was the commodity that attracted the highest premium,was the most buoyant.Owing to its high market value in the international market,cocoa farmers were prosperous and practically all the forests in the western region were being cultivated for cocoa to boost the income of the region.

    And the Return- On-Investment ,ROI was quite significant.

    Hence the western region became head and shoulder above other regions in terms of progress through advancement in education- free education,in terms of provision of infrastructure-first television station in black Africa,a stadium,the tallest building in Nigeria at that time-Cocoa house etc found home in lbadan,the headquarter of the region.

    In Midwest region where rubber plant was the major cash crop,tapping rubber for latex in the form of lumps was the major occupation of the people until crude oil was discovered in Oloibiri ,modern day Bayelsa state in 1958 which changed the landscape of our country from a producing to a consuming one .

    And Benin-city,the capital of Midwest,was the center of activities and it was complimented by Warri that was also brimming with fishery and other marine activities as well as logging/woodworks due to its coastal location and rain forest ecology.

    As can be seen from the narrative above,before the discovery of oil/gas,all Nigerians in the four (4) regions had their hands on the plough,working tirelessly to boost the productivity and income of the country.

    I guess that is why the period is referred to as the golden age,because we were a producing country before we became a consuming country when oil/gas was discovered. And it is an unfortunate situation which Labor Party, Presidential Candidate,Peter Obi has smartly converted to his campaign mantra which is that he will:Turn Nigeria From A Consuming To Producing Country.

    In a manner that is sort of perverse and gutting,the availability of oil/gas in our country has become ‘oil curse’ instead of a booster to our original production output through farming and processing of cash crops earlier highlighted.That is what the United Arab Emirates,UAE has done with oil/gas in Abu Dhabi,while Dubai remains a trading and tourism haven,just as Ras Al Khaimah and the rest of the emirates that make up the seven (7) emirates nation, Ajman, Fujairah, Sharjah and Umm Al Quwain concentrate efforts on harnessing resources endemic in their locations and of which they have comparative advantage in producing.

    Why did l decide to dredge up the past,readers may be wondering?

    Well,the aim is to put in perspective the fact that,not until the parliamentary system bequeathed to us by the British colonialist when their rule over us was ending in 1960, was jettisoned and replaced with presidential system in 1979 by the military,all was well with Nigeria.And our country has the potential of becoming like the UAE,because it is endowed with all the ingredients that it has taken to make that Middle East country that is regarded as a wonder of the world,become like Paris and New York combined.

    Back in the days,the regional capitals of Nigeria-Kaduna,lbadan,Enugu and Benincity were the centers of political and economic powers dispersed across the country as all the regions had autonomy and the local political leaders were making their own laws reflective of the peculiar dynamics of their people’s culture ,such as ethnic and religious orientations and inclinations.

    Since ,only defense,foreign and internal affairs were mainly left in the purvey of the federal government with a prime minister incharge, government at the center was centrifugal and it was centripetal in the regions,as such prime ministerial or governor-generalship post was not that attractive to warrant the type of do or die attitude now invested in becoming president and Vice President of Nigeria currently sucking up all the oxygen in the political space and threatening to asphyxiate our beloved country.

    And it is not a mere happenstance that the most prominent political leaders at that time,Sir Ahmadu Bello of northern region and Chief Obafemi Awolowo of western region chose to become premiers of their respective regions instead of moving to the centre to become prime minister of Nigeria.

    As evidence of the ordinariness of the central government,Alhaji Abubakar Tafawa Balewa,from Bauchi state who was the second in prominence in the political hierarchy in the north was assigned by sir Ahmadu Bello to serve as prime minister.So invariably the best hands were reserved in the regions and the second best were dispatched to the center which was at that time,lagos- the seat of the federal government.

    The exception to that rule was,Dr Nnamdi Azikiwe who was the most prominent leader from the east and instead of becoming the premier in the manner that Ahmadu Bello and Obafemi Awolowo had become premiers of their respective regions,conceded the premiership of eastern region to sir Micheal Okpara and opted to become the Governor General of Nigeria,a ceremonial role which he desired as a centrist.

    What informed the decision of the military and their acolytes in the intellectual world as well as the establishment to switch from the parliamentary system that the British handed over to us and which was modeled after what they practice,has remained intriguing to me,and l guess to those keen on understanding the political evolution of Nigeria.

    Having amalgamated the northern and southern protectorates in 1914,the British officials that had garnered huge administrative experience over a period in excess 50 years of superintending over Nigeria,knew that to a large extent that,the system that worked for their home country,UK was ideal for us.

    The underlying reason for such belief would be that the United Kingdom that is made up of four major ethnic groups- English,Welsh,Scottish and Irish to form United Kingdom,UK was in more ways than one,similar to Nigeria comprising of multiple ethnic nationalities with three main tribes -Hausa/Fulani,Yoruba and lgbo as the three main ethnic groups.

    As such the colonialist probably reckoned that the system that had worked for them for centuries was the best for us.And given the similarities in ethnic composition of the nationalities that have been united to form one country,Nigeria,they appeared to have been right in their assessment and decision to imbue us with their tested and proven system.So for the first six (6) years,1960-66,Nigeria experienced its ‘golden age’ until the military truncated the process via the 1966 coup detat,a counter coup six (6) months after and the descent into civil disturbances that culminated into a civil war in 1967 that lasted till 1970.

    Even under autocratic administrations,when those that ruled by gun,instead of rule of law,were in charge,religious and ethnic balance was observed because it was critical for the sustenance of the survival of our country as one entity.

    That is why general Ibrahim Babangida,a Muslim from Niger State had Admiral Augustus Aikhomu,a Christian from Edo state as his chief of staff Supreme Headquaters which is the equivalent of Vice President in a military regime.

    And the tradition or trend continued when multi party democracy got reintroduced in Nigeria in 1979 after a long military interregnum that commenced in 1967.

    Religious sensitivity did not wane,even after then leaders of Nigeria,perhaps in a brain wave or in a flight of fancy decided to jettison the parliamentary system bequeathed by the British colonialist and opted to experiment with American style presidential system of government,hence Shehu Shagari,a Hausa/Fulani from Sokoto state paired with Alex Ekwueme,a Christian from Anambra state to form the federal government in 1979 and in 1999, Olusegun Obasanjo, a Christian from Ogun state was joined by Atiku Abubakar from Adamawa state, a Muslim as

    President and Vice President respectively .

    If indeed,the switch from

    parliamentary to presidential system is an experiment as l had presumed,having learnt or experienced first hand, it’s ugly consequences-high cost of operation and over centralization and concentration of power in an individual as president currently throwing up ethnic and religious issues-what are we waiting for to return to the good old days of parliamentary system when there was regional autonomy or form our own hybrid system which could be a mixture of both presidential and parliamentary systems based on our reality?

    At least two countries in Africa,Ghana and Rwanda operate hybrid constitutions.

    That is evidenced by the fact that the national constitutions of both countries are neither parliamentary or presidential.

    Is Nigeria facing its own moment of truth ?

    Should we not seriously address the elephant in the room which are the sticky points in the 1999 constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria?

    In due course,I will return to the question of wether or not,as a country,we did not steer our ship of state into the wrong course by switching from parliamentary to presidential system of government in 1979.But having put things in context and perspective by reflecting on the past experience in our dear country,allow me dissect the curved ball which APC Presidential candidate,Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s choice of Kashim Shetima seem to have thrown to himself such that it may make or mar his chance of becoming the next occupant of Aso Rock Villa and even threatening the survival of our country as a nation.

    The commonest argument in favor of a Muslim-Muslim ticket is that there is no Vice Presidential material amongst northern Christians.The counter argument to that is that the incumbent Vice President,professor Yemi Osinbajo was a political feather weight before he stepped into the role in 2015. Why was that not an issue ? Clearly, the reason that Tinubu did not pick a southern Christian as running mate is much more deeper than not finding a heavy weight Christian as being speculated in some quarters.

    After all,there are a couple of serving Christian governors, ex governors and two former secretaries to federal government,one ex and the other serving,to choose from.

    So,my take is that the northern Muslims do not consider northern Christians as part of the north,just as they also do not consider southern Muslims as prosper Muslims.

    Therein lies the dilemma.

    This is also why state of origin and birth have remained an issue as Nigerians are not free to adopt a state where they have lived,worked and even born as their state,so that they can vote and be voted for,as it obtains in the USA where former president Bill Clinton served as governor in the state of Arkansas and his wife Hillary later served as the senator representing the state of New York.The same applies to the Bush family that originally hail from Texas,but Jeb Bush,one of the sons of president George Bush of blessed memory,served as the governor of the state of Florida.

    What the scenario playing out in our country where people of same country,but of different creeds are not accorded equal opportunities indicates,is that there may be segregation,and even apartheid in Nigeria. Yes, apartheid in Nigeria!

    Hence after over one hundred (100) years of amalgamation (1914) of the northern and southern protectorates by the British colonialists,northern and southern Nigeria have failed to blend.

    Back in the days,the motto/mantra of NATIONAL PARTY OF NIGERIA,NPN ,then ruling party (1979-1983) was:One Nation,One Destiny.

    With the polarization of our country between extreme lines of religious divide in the run up to 2015 general elections and a situation that has persisted thereafter,can a Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket in 2023 which is a clear exclusion of members of the other faith in the multi ethnic and religious country,be said to be reflective of the slogan: one nation,one destiny?

    While Islamic clerk sheik Ahmed Gumi belief about the APC and its presidential candidates resort to Muslim-Muslim ticket is that , “It has nothing to do with religion. Its pure vote-getting strategy and nothing more. It now depends on the voter to choose from a wide range of choices.”

    Babachir Lawal, former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, SGF has a counterpoise to the point of view of the renown Islamic cleric.

    “The northern governors and some northern Muslim elite must have persuaded him that they will never vote for a ticket that has a northern Christian on it.And he has agreed with them.But if he thinks a Muslim-Muslim ticket will win him the northern Muslim votes,he should have a rethink.They will massively vote for one of their sons because it is in their nature to do so”

    And Ohanaze -apex lgbo socio-cultural organization through a press statement by its vice president-general , chief Damien Afam Okeke-Ogene has also warned that a Muslim Muslim ticket in 2023 election is a serious threat to the unity and corporate existence of Nigeria.He put it this way:

    “APC presidential candidate choice of muslim — muslim ticket is not only ill-timed but also a total disregard to the diversity of the country and noted that this has undermined efforts of well meaning Nigerians over the years to bridge religious differences and promote ethnic harmonious co-existence.”

    While acknowledging the cataclysm triggered by his choice of a fellow Muslim as running mate,the APC presidential candidate,Bola Tinubu,in a press statement justified his decision thus:

    “Both sides of the debate have impressive reasons and passionate arguments supporting their position.Both arguments are right in their own way.But neither is right in the way that Nigeria needs at the moment.As president,I hope to govern this nation toward uncommon progress.”

    But Christian APC members in the north do not agree with their presidential candidate,Tinubu.

    And they did not mince words when they stormed Aso Rock Villa seat of presidential power in their numbers to register their dissent to Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket to president Mohamadu Buhari.They bared they mind thus:

    “Mr. President, since the return of democracy in 1999 in Nigeria,the tradition has been a Muslim-Christian or Christian-Muslim paring by all political parties.And this has to a large extent,ensured religious harmony in the country.

    “However, the move by our party to adopt a Muslim-Muslim ticket is most insensitive and the height of discrimination against Christians in our country. This is on the heels that other political parties indeed reflected the religious balance in the composition of their presidential team.”

    Clearly, Nigerians from all sides of the political divides-ethnic and religious are speaking out against what appears like APC Abracadabra.

    And from the excerpt from his media statement earlier highlighted ,Tinubu knows that he is in a dilemma with respect to his choice of a Muslim running mate ,but he hopes to prevail via dexterous political maneuvering.

    But would he triumph this time ?

    It is noteworthy that at other times,the interest of Nigerians on the choice of presidential candidates and their running mates would be influenced only by political parties affiliations.

    Today, it is the faith of both candidates for the office of the president and Vice President of Nigeria that is a priority and being Muslim-Muslim is creating a ruckus simply because it is considered toxic by both Muslims and Christians alike who cherish harmonious co-existence that can only be achieved via equitable distribution of political power in a multi religion and multi ethnic country like ours.

    Our forebears recognized the need,and entrenched the values through Federal Character principle enshrined in the 1999 constitution.

    But Tinubu’s gambit of a Muslim- Muslim ticket implies that he has elected to discountenance the precautions taken by authors of the 1999 constitution to avoid the crisis of exclusion that has gripped the country since the ascension of APC to power at the center in 2015 reflected by the continued denigration or neglect of the federal character principle that is meant to be the glue holding the nation together in a manner that all the members of the union would have a sense of belonging.

    It is commonsensical or a no-brainer to figure out that the violation of the federal Character principle entrenched in the 1999 constitution via exclusion of some tribes from appointment into strategic public offices and the reported monopolization of strategic public office positions by members of mr president’s tribe and religion that have manifested in the proliferation of separatist or secessionist groups like the proscribed Independent Peoples of Biafra IPOB led by Nnamdi Kanu in the eastern flank of our country and Oduduwa Republic promoter, Sunday Igboho in the south west zone,as well as other fringe groups in the middle belt region currently threatening the continued existence of our beloved country as one nation.

    The demon of disharmony in our country would certainly be fed fat and inter tribal and religious conflicts exacerbated, if politics is allowed to be mixed with religion in a manner that APC and its presidential candidate are about to do which is a dangerous brew and ill wind which would blow no one any good.

    Interestingly,the presidential system of government that is being operated in Nigeria since 1979 is modeled after the United States of America,USA’s system.

    Unlike the USA constitution which is a four (4) page document has been in operation since 1787 when it was first written and operationalized a year after, and of which 33 amendments have been proposed with 27 approved and incorporated into the constitution after going through rigorous process of vetting:our law makers are yet to effect major amendments in the 1999 constitution.That is despite the fact that most Nigerians have rejected the constitution which they regard as being made by military diktat as it is a product of the military which handed over 1979 and the 1999 constitutions,of which the latter is an improvement on the former and to some critics,even a sort of mere addendum.

    The issues of rotation of power between north and south zones which is currently at a gentleman agreement level,and therefore subject to manipulation; the nebulous minimum educational qualifications to become president which is malleable,and the lack of clarity about the unviable nature and therefore a clear prohibition of a Muslim-Muslim or Christian-Christian tickets at the federal government level or in states where the dominant religion is not above 70% currently about to trigger a political fiasco; are issues bedeviling our country because they are not codified or incorporated into the constitution as amendments in the way that Americans do.

    In my view,if our leaders really want to fix Nigeria,the next national assembly has its work cut out for it,as the initiatives outlined above are simple and critical panacea ,remedies or cures for the incongruities that we have discovered in the course of operating the 1999 constitution in these past twenty three (23 )years that it has been our country’s statutes book.

    Nigeria can borrow a leaf or two from Canada and Switzerland where the French speaking and other ethnic minorities in those climes share equal rights in the constitution with the majority English speaking ones ,including rotation of presidency amongst unequal parties,particularly in Switzerland.

    In conclusion,l recently came across a whatsapp message with the photo of a little Caucasian girl crying.

    On top of the image was the question to the crying girl:are you Hindu,Christian or Muslim? She answered: I am hungry.

    The message ends with the admonition: MAKE HUMANITY YOUR RELIGION.

    Remove Hindu and Caucasian girl from the picture,and replace with a Nigerian girl to create a local context; then pose the similar question: are you Christian or Muslim? To a distressed average Nigerian girl in Sokoto,the heartland of Hausa/Fulani where Muslims are predominant; and do the same in Abeokuta in Yoruba land, populated mainly by people of Christian faith; then replicate it in Aba in Abia state peopled by the lgbos that are mainly Christians: l can bet that the answer from the anguished girl would be: l am hungry.

    It would not be: l am Muslim or Christian.

    Clearly, hunger which spares no one based on religion, and starvation are increasingly becoming the lot of most Nigerians right now as a result of the amplification of our religious differences by politicians for unmerited advantage leading to conflicts that have displaced farmers and dramatically disrupted lives and livelihoods.What the demagogues tend not to realize is that the so called advantages are temporary and often come back to haunt them in the manner that some are currently refugees as they are cut off from their homesteads due to insecurity.

    Take for instance the injection of Boko Haram into politics along with it’s more virulent variant ISWAP, herdsmen militia in the north and known and unknown gun men in the south east and the calamities those avoidable brigands are wreaking on politicians.Is it not a shame that today ,some of them can not go home to their constituents for fear that they may be kidnapped or killed by the monsters that they literally bred.

    So,why don’t our politicians try to be religion and tribe neutral and focus more on the proposed programs and projects that would lift majority of Nigerians out of poverty and put them on the path to prosperity?

    I will demur from citing Nigerian Bureau Of Statistics,NBS data to validate my assertion that hunger is ravaging our fellow compatriots, as such we must pay more attention to how to pull the masses out of hunger.

    That is due to the fact that l am convinced that we all know without being told that life in Nigeria has become brutish and hellish owing to the mismanagement of our multiple ethnic and religion relationships.

    As the Central theme or advocacy of the earlier referenced whatsapp message prods us:

    Make humanity your religion.

    How we in Nigeria can imbibe that message: MAKE HUMANITY YOUR RELIGION should be a raison detre or a sort of desiderata in our country.

    lt is a necessary first step towards liberating our country from the shackles of religion and ethnic idiosyncrasies currently hobbling our country’s quest for nationhood.

    That should be the mission of our politicians,not how to divide the country along ethnic and religious lines which the Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket of the APC candidates Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Kashim lbrahim Shetima tend to portend.

    I have made a case in the past that it is about time that our political leaders applied the strategy of expanding the pie or value to be negotiated by putting all the political offices that are to be shared on the table upfront.

    Nigerians would be less agitated or distressed,if they know in advance what they would get in the political calculus while negotiating power sharing arrangements between the north and south,Muslims and Christians alike.

    My advocacy for a change in the political power sharing formula is inspired by the reality that the presidency rotation principle adopted since the return of multi party democracy since 1999,has become obsolete,therefore unimplementable in equitable manner.

    And the reasons are two folds.The first is that it is mainly due to the changing political landscape which has seen the south holding on to the presidency much longer than anticipated resulting in the loss of faith in the system by the north in particular.

    Take for instance,the president Umaru Yar’adua/goodluck Jonathan presidency which ended abruptly in 2010 due to the sudden passage of Yar’adua compelling Jonathan to complete that term and commence his own tenure in 2011 which got terminated in 2015.

    Secondly,also take a look at the current eight (8) years tenure of president Muhamadu Buhari which kicked-off in 2015 and will be expiring in may next year.

    Then think about the likelihood of the north remaining in power beyond 2023, when the northerners vote massively for the PDP candidate,Atiku Abubakar,who is one of their own.

    It is a reality that the APC initially acknowledged by ditching Rotimi Amaechi and Yemi Osinbajo who were initially the front runners for the presidency when the party was inclined to allow power to return to the south.But its attempt to field Ahmed Lawan,the current senate president as it’s presidential candidate to serve as a counter force to PDP’s Atiku Abubakar ascendancy into Aso Rock Villa next year was checkmated by APC governors from the north who aligned with Tinubu’s quest ,for the selfish reason that after Tinubu’s eight (8)years,power would return to the north and much faster than,if Ahmad Lawan were to become president for eight (8)years,and power returns to the south for another eight (8) years.This implies that the governors interested in the presidency would have to wait for sixteen (16) years with Lawan as president as opposed to eight (8) years,if Tinubu were to become president.

    Thus Ahmed Lawan’s ambition to be president in 2023 became a casualty as Tinubu’s hurricane-like political force torpedoed it like a ferocious and subversive submarine craft,by wining the 6-8 June presidential primaries of the APC against the run of place.

    After one month of assessment of its best options,following its victory on June 8 ,the Tinubu camp that was probably unprepared for their victory,hence the name of a vice presidential candidate was not already in the breast pocket of the candidate as he was entering the primaries contest on 6th June,was eventually able to hash out the name of Kashim lbrahim Shetima as his running mate.

    But instead of dousing the flame that Tinubu’s victory at the party primary election which was like a lightening rod had ignited,appointing a running mate has raised the crisis to Code Red or something akin to pouring gasoline/petrol into a burning fire.

    And no one can tell how far the conflagration would go in further widening the fault lines in our beloved country into a gulf ,and even result in a serious chasm amongst the good people of Nigeria that are blessed with multiple ethnic and religious orientations of which there is one parentage- Abraham- father of Isaac and Ismail the originators of Judaism , Christianity and Islam.

    Why can Nigeria not have a sort of peaceful interrelationships arrangement in the Middle East known as:

    The Abraham Accords Declaration, which states:

    “We believe that the best way to address challenges is through cooperation and dialogue and that developing friendly relations among States advances the interests of lasting peace in the Middle East and around the world.”

    According to Wikipedia,

    “The Abraham Accords are a joint statement between the State of Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States, reached on August 13, 2020. Subsequently, the term was used to refer collectively to agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.”

    Arising from that agreement,amongst other positive developments,Israeli high technology firms are currently operating in Jebel Ali ports in Dubai jointly developing softwares with the UAE and there is currently direct flight between Saudi Arabia and Israel.That simply amplifies the fact that with determination,the seemingly impossible can become possible.

    For long,l have lived with the morbid fear that religion is like a keg of gunpowder which is laid underneath our country Nigeria that could one day inadvertently be ignited and result in a combustion of catastrophic consequences.

    But,l had reckoned that the unfortunate catastrophe may happen in the form of a heinous crime of beheading of a member or members of the opposite religions by fanatics resulting in reprisal actions between Muslims and Christians.

    Thankfully,our law enforcement agencies -DSS ,police,army etal have been able to do a great job of mitigating that risk.And l always heaved a sigh of relief each time such dastardly criminal acts occurred and things did not get unhinged with aggrieved people taking the laws into their hands.

    But the introduction of a Muslim-Muslim ticket for the presidency of Nigeria in 2023 was unimaginable to me.

    More so because it was contemplated in 2015 and quickly dropped because it was felt that it was just too hot to handle.

    So,l never contemplated,how much more engage in any scenario building around it.

    Suddenly,it is in our face.

    And hell appears to have been let loose via the raging verbal fire works.

    I pray it stays that way until reason eventually prevails when elders in the room truly earn the title by stepping up to the plate.

    Before then,good lord, take control.

     

    Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.

    To continue with this conversation, pls visit www.magnum.com.

  • Thankfully, 2023 Presidential Hopefuls Are Economically Literate – By Magnus Onyibe

    Thankfully, 2023 Presidential Hopefuls Are Economically Literate – By Magnus Onyibe

    Projecting into the mindset of a potential president of Nigeria that would be the new occupant of Aso Rock Villa in 2023 is what l have set out to do by writing this essay.

    And l would like to state upfront that I am not by any means engaging in clairvoyance.

    That is why all l want to do is leverage trend analysis as a tool, and look back into the past and also project into the future to figure out who out of the motley crowd of presidential candidates would end up calling the shots in Aso Rock Villa in 2023 is savvy in economic and financial matters.

    Although , there are at least fifteen (15) presidential candidates that have met independent National Electoral Commission, INEC eligibility conditions and deadline , l have narrowed the number down to mainly two, and to a much lesser degree , a third in the unlikely event that the much hyped youth revolution occurs and only one political party benefits from it.

    As the saying goes,by their fruits we shall know them.

    So ,for the purpose of this discourse, fruits can be substituted for antecedents.

    And relying on their antecedents,l can wager a bet that the three presidential candidates,of which one of them would willy nilly be propelled into Aso Rock Villa seat of presidential power next year, are in the persons of Asiwaju,Bola Tinubu,the flag bearer of the ruling party at the center, APC and Turaki Atiku Abubakar,the standard bearer for the main opposition party, PDP, and mr Peter Obi, LP candidate, in the unlikely event that a miracle happens.

    At the risk of appearing to be presumptuous, nothing much has changed in Nigerian political space except the current wave of youth activism in the political space triggered by the reformed electoral Act 2022 which has conferred fidelity on our electoral system currently igniting  unprecedented political consciousness in our youths.

    It is amazing and heartening at the same time that 60% of potential voters in Nigeria which the youth demography represents, and who had hitherto been neglected or dormant ,are now the highly charged and motivated members of society anxious to exercise their civic duty of voting with the sole aim of seizing power from those they have branded as old generation politicians that must be shoved aside in 2023,and replaced with their purportedly newly found idol-Peter Obi and his running mate ,Datti Baba-Ahmed,when president Mohammadu Buhari and Yemi Osinbajo exit Aso Rock Villa next year.

    As l have asserted in previous interventions,such a radical prospect of ousting the old politicians with alacrity by our youths,bothers on,at best,idealism, and perhaps youthful exuberance,if one were to be less charitable.

    And for the reasons above, my sincere admonishment to our youths,as l had done in my previous media interventions is for them to decode the coded message in the conventional wisdom and idiomatic expression: ‘if wishes were horses ,beggars would ride’ and ‘old horses never die, they just find new horses to win’

    To be clear,my point is simply that the 360 degrees change that the youths are seeking would not materialize as fast they would expect. But it would happen if they remain tenacious.

    So, although the youth generation would make significant impact in 2023 elections ,as l had enunciated in my media intervention widely published on 21 June, 2022 titled:Converting Youth Bulge To Positive Force For Politics in Nigeria,my prognosis then is that either Turaki Atiku Abubakar or Asiwaju Bola Tinubu would prevail in the upcoming presidential contest. And that position has undergone further adjustment.

    In any case, one of the three them would be the one to receive the hand over notes from president Buhari on 29th May 2023.

    And l can fortell what the policies and programs of the duo, perhaps a trio,  would look like when one of them takes over the reins of governance.

    Basically,most of what is known about them and which l will rely on in my analysis are derived from their period of stewardship or time in public office .

    With respect to Tinubu,he has served for two terms as governor of lagos state from 1999 to 2007 and left footprints with respect to spreading his political tentacles nationally, and his significant efforts at providing infrastructure that has steered lagos state towards becoming a mega city, remain unsurpassed.

    Regarding Abubakar that was Vice President to former president Olusegun Obasanjo, who also served from 1999 to 2007, he has giant imprints in both the terrains of politics and economy nationwide.

    Leveraging the network of People Democratic Movement,PDM,inherited from his mentor,late Shehu Musa Yar’adua, he is easily one of the most widely known political actors in Nigeria , having contested for the presidency of Nigeria a whooping five (5) times with significant impart. For that reason, the PDP candidate is believed to already have in his kitty about 13 million voters which he earned during his last contest for the office of president in 1999 with incumbent president,Mohammadu Buhari who received a couple of millions more votes than him.

    I will not dwell on Peter Obi because everything about his service in public office,including documents that are supposed to be classified,plus the ones concocted by the denizens swirling around in his orbit or netizens that have colonized the cyberspace on behalf of Obi are already over exposed in the public domain.

    So,without further ado,it is pertinent that we get down to the brass tacks by shining the light on the private sector background of the likely candidates that would become president of Nigeria next year.

    In any case,with the economy and security likely to occupy the left and center of the political debate when Independent National Election Commission,INEC, officially opens the space for campaigning on 28th September,Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar who are thankfully not economic illiterates would be going head-to-head.

    Remarkably ,the terrific and encouraging thing about the candidates is that both of the APC and PDP candidates, plus the LP candidate Peter Obi can read the balance sheet because they are all business savvy, having been private sector practitioners.

    While Tinubu is an accountant, with interest in tax collection,Atiku is an astute entrepreneur with investments in oil/gas as well as education while Obi is a commodity trader.For lack of space and time , will not going into granular details about their businesses.

    Now,Tinubu’s supporters would aver that it is his blue print for the development of Lagos state that has remained the play book that have subsequently been relied upon by three governors-Babatunde Fashola, Akinkunmi Ambode and Jide Sanwo-Olu-for the advancement of the state.

    By the same token,the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar shares in the credit for the giant developmental strides taken in our country under the watch of former president Obasanjo for eight (8) years . It was during that period that Nigeria’s debilitating debt burden of about $30 billion(which has reportedly sadly tanked to an estimated $90 billion under the present regime) was substantially written off ($12 billion) by the Paris Club of creditors. It was also a time that Nigeria witnessed economic reforms including privatization of public utilities such as the telecommunications sector that ushered in the current mobile telephone revolution.

    And there are credible reasons to believe that if president Obasanjo had succeeded in serving a third term (as pundits aver that he was desirous of doing) the petroleum sector would also have been privatized.

    That means that Nigerians would not have been going through the agony of paying for the commodity literally through their nose, and basically going through hell and back to even find the commodity to purchase.

    So inevitably ,the candidates that would likely emerge as president are pro-private sector and therefore likely to be able to pull Nigerian economy out of the abyss where it is currently mired due particularly to the monumental and unprecedented levels of insecurity in the country and poor economic policies,especially petroleum subsidy which is expected to gulp about four (4) trillion naira in budget 2022 , broken down as approximately N600 billion naira monthly expenditure,and still counting.

    Before dwelling further on the likely economic policies of the potential Aso Rock Villa occupant after president Buhari exits next year, it is appropriate that we underline the qualities that Nigerians expect in their next president.

    During the launch of my new book: Becoming President Of Nigeria.A Citizen’s Guide, the keynote speaker, professor Mike Ikhariale, a Harvard University trained constitutional lawyer, outlined some qualities that an ideal president of Nigeria is supposed to posses in addition to the requirements in the 1999 constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria.

    The expert in constitutionalism laid it bare by leveraging the work of an authority in constitutionalism, James Barber.

    Here is how he put it:

    “According to James Barber in his studies generally referred to as “Barber’s Research”, he laid out about 10 essential qualities which a President must possess in order to be successful. They include:

    a. A strong vision for the country’s future supported by a plan of action.

    b. He must have the ability to put his own reign in historical perspective.

    c. A president must be a communicator who knows the importance of the so-called ‘Bullying Pulpit’.

    d. He must be prepared to make unpopular decisions, someone who is able to move beyond the orthodoxy and purposefully innovative.

    e. Must have crisis management skills, not passing the puck but accepting realities.

    f. Must be a person of remarkable character and integrity.

    g. Even though he has the constitutional power to hire and fire, he must make his key appointments wisely in such a way that he can use his employment prerogative to bolster his own political reach. This in modern times would mean gender balance and in the particular case of Nigeria, the requirements of Federal Character principle. He must avoid cronyism and nepotism.

    h. Must have the ability to relate with the Legislators,

    i. Needless to say, that charisma and a welcoming aura are great assets for a President.”

    Having arrayed the qualities of an ideal president, the question now is: does the antecedents of the two candidates of the ruling party APC – Bola Tinubu and main opposition party, PDP -Atiku Abubakar and the distant third candidate, Peter Obi of LP , who are the front runners in the race to Aso Rock Villa, posses most or all of the qualities enunciated in ‘Barber’s Research’ earlier cited by professor Ikhariale?

    If readers would indulge me, l would like to respond to the forgoing poser against the backdrop of the public office records of the candidates that l earlier highlighted.

    As l pointed out ab initio, it is Tinubu of APC that successfully steered lagos state into becoming a functional mega city and of which a coterie of his protégé has continued to hold sway.

    On the other hand , it is Abubakar of PDP that set the agenda for leap frogging the economic growth of Nigeria when during their first tenure in Aso Rock Villa ,then president Olusegun Obasanjo, entrusted him with the management of the economy during which the privatization of the telecommunications sector,(held up as a global model for privatization) led to the introduction of GSM telephony amongst other positive phenomenons that occurred in the Obasanjo/Abubakar era.

    It is also worthy of note that both Tinubu and Abubakar have the knack for identifying talents, by spotting and reaching out to them, even if they are in the private sector. Hence  the duo often achieved commendable levels of success in leadership in the roles in public office .

    As for Peter Obi, he attracted a brewery to the Anambra state and took a stake in it as well as saved N75 billion naira which he left behind for his hand picked successor, Willie Obiano in banks, one of which is  fidelity bank,where he is a major share holder, and Obiano was executive director before becoming governor of Anambra state in 2014.

    While being cognizant of the blithe on the characters of both Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar based on recent scathing reports by Financial Times of London and Bloomberg news that alleged that they have been indicted for corruption in the USA; it is noteworthy that the frontline presidential candidates were never convicted of the crimes that they were alleged to have committed.

    Nonetheless, there have been a lot of buzz locally about their character flaws which frankly, can not be discountenanced.

    But at the same time, we must recognize that no man is perfect.

    Personally, if l am faced with the option of choosing between an economic illiterate who would do nothing to grow the economy,but dissipate a lot of energy in chasing perceived corrupt people to no avail ; or save up the income of government in bank accounts instead of investing it in employment and tax generating ventures that would boost the GDP and living standard of Nigerians: l would choose the alternative which is an enterprising personality that would seek out all possible legitimate ways to improve the economy and also make our country a better place, socioculturally for harmonious co-existence of the multiple ethnic and religious groups.

    The mindset expressed above is underscored by the parable of the three talents in the holy Bible? Those familiar with the parable would recall that it is about three servants who were entrusted with talents (funds) by their master prior to embarking on a trip. And the two who  invested them wisely, were commended by their master upon, upon his return.

    But the one who dug up the ground to hide his own talent, so that he would return same to his master was chided and the talent was taken off him and given to those who invested the funds left in their care.

    In the light of the above, if a personality with the ability and capacity to robustly grow the beleaguered economy of our beloved country and has engaged in the risky venture of trying to stimulate growth via transactions,and have in the process been accused of graft in the past,both here in Nigeria and abroad without conviction,so be it; because regardless of their past , so long as they are not ex-convicts who the Nigerian constitution excludes from running for public office,l would chose the latter than the former.

    As we all may be aware,by and large,risk is an integral part of business or transactions and graft is always in the mix. Accordingly, the most efficacious panacea to graft is to set up robust institutions to prevent it.

    Certainly not of the hue of EFCC and ICPC, thank you very much.

    Incorporating measures to eliminate corruption is akin to organizations , (particularly banking institutions) building firewalls around their data bases to fend off cyber criminals that are constantly seeking ways to breach the security of corporations in order to gain access and steal vital data of targeted organizations.

    So it behoves of the legislature and judiciary to enact and enforce laws that would prevent corruption. That is what is obtainable in advanced democracies.

    And l make bold to state that the position that l have espoused above would not be far from the mindset of private sector practitioners most of whom are already echoing such sentiment because it is in tandem with their belief that the economy should be unshackled especially by ending petrol subsidy.

    We need not be rocket scientists to figure out that the reason for such a defiant attitude is that the better part of seven years of this administration invested in anti corruption misadventure has pulled, not only the economy of our country into a black hole, but the fabric of unity of our country has also been shredded to the extent that it would take a very long time to mend.

    And that is not a good thing ,no matter how spin doctors working for government try to white wash the dire atmosphere in our country which is basically comparable to the experience of a patient in an Intensive Care Unit, ICU of a hospital where life is so precarious as it is held only by a tiny thread separating life and death.

    So,despite the false claim that our country is better off than what it was seven years ago,majority of Nigerians recognize such revisionism as sheer farce and deceit of the electorate , as such they are resolved to effect change, if the current activism by our youths engaged in Permanent Voters Card, PVC registration and collection, is anything to go by.

    Although,somehow unorthodox,my non nihilistic or liberal assessment of both Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar as well as Peter Obi ,is guided by the truism and conventional wisdom , ‘ there is no paean without pain’.

    That broadly implies that sacrifices must be made in order to achieve success.

    Buoyed by that reality,l am convinced that Nigerians are willing to vote for the candidate who would move the nation forward into the orbit of progress and prosperity,than those that would lead them into a blind alley and quagmire where the ship of state is currently anchored and waiting to ,at the slightest stress test, tip over or remain moored in a cul de sac towards which it is the currently tethering.

    In that regard, for sure ,Tinubu, Abubakar and Obi will receive caustic criticisms when emotions start running high when the campaigns begin from 28 September which is basically a couple of months from today.

    One thing we must recognize is that things are never as bad as they first seem or as good as they first seem.

    So,  after the anticipated hurly burly, one of them would end up in Aso Rock Villa on 29 May 2023 and that person will be adept in reading and understanding profit and loss account.

    And l would like to urge skeptics who hold contrary view to the assertion above,to recall the gale of criticisms that was lobbed at then candidate,Mohammadu Buhari when he was a presidential candidate in 2015. Yet,he won the presidency, simply because there was a pervasive sanctimonious attitude of anyone but Goodluck Jonathan prevailing in Nigeria at that point in time.

    It is trite to state that a similar sentiment is currently prevailing in Nigeria’s political space, as Nigerians are craving a rebirth or reset in 2023.

    Apart from the candidates of APC and PDP that are besmeared, Peter Obi, candidate of Labor Party, LP,  who is a two term governor of Anambra state also has corruption toga tied to his persona .That is if the huge cash running into hundreds of millions of naira (about N250m )allegedly found in a vehicle in the governors mansion Awka during his tenure. That is in addiction to the alleged malfeasance arising from his patronage of an offshore tax heaven that reportedly helped him hide some of his wealth that he failed to disclose, to avoid tax is anything to go by.

    Similarly ,the presidential candidate of the newly minted party, New Nigerian Peoples Party, NNPP Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso,who is a two term governor of Kano state, ex defense minister and senator of the federal republic of Nigeria has also at one time or the other been tarred with the black brush of malfeasance which was brought to the fore in the course of his duel with his predecessors and successors as governor of Kano state, lbrahim Shekarau and Abdulahi Ganduje.

    My point is that unlike in 2015,anti corruption will not be the center piece of any candidate’s campaign,since it has been demystified as a campaign rhetoric that would resonate with voters. In any case must of the candidates have shed the negative toga of corruption by discharging themselves of the allegations in courts of law.

    In short ,right now ,there is fatigue on the fight against corruption because those who are supposed to be fighting it in the current dispensation have become more corrupt than those they are supposed to prevent from dipping their hands into our common treasury.

    That is reflected by the allegations against lbrahim Magu ,the anti graft tzar who was recently sacked as the EFCC chairman and the immediate past Accountant General of The Federation, AGF, Ahmed Idris who got dismissed on account of bilking Nigeria of N80 billion naira diverted illegally from the treasury that he is supposed to be the custodian.

    Also in the mix is Abdulrasheed Mainav,the jailed chairman of Pension Reform Task Team , PRTT with responsibility for the reforming the corruption ridden pension funds system and  he ended up re-looting the multi billion naira funds that he was assigned to recover.

    Be it Omoyele Sowore, the presidential candidate of Africa Action Congress, AAC, Dumebi Kachikwu , candidate for the presidency on the platform of Africa Democratic Congress, ADC  or Young Progressive Party, YPP presidential candidate, Malik Ado-lbrahim , all of whom are running on the platforms of fringe political parties, not one presidential candidates is a saint by any stretch of imagination as they all also have scandals, not particularly financial corruption hugging them.And all of them would be literally stripped naked simply because muck raking goes with the territory of politics.

    As salvaging the economy and reining in insecurity are obviously the most pressing needs of Nigerians in these present times , projecting into the development mindset of the next occupant of Aso Rock Villa seat of power as president in 2023, l am pretty convinced that if there were to be a three point agenda as a fulcrum or policy plank of the incoming government;one of them would be pulling our country out of economic doldrums which has seen government borrowing money to pay salaries and utilizing about 98% of it’s income for debt servicing,and which by some accounts is in excess of ninety (90) billion dollars borrowed from local and international lenders.

    That is because priority would most likely be channeled towards ensuring that the critical masse of Nigerians are liberated from hunger and starvation currently ravaging them.

    Also , restoring security of lives and properties by government thus freeing the masses from the rule of bandits such as religious insurgents, herdsmen militias and unknown gun men currently be-spoiling Nigeria from the north, all the way down to the eastern corners of Nigeria ,as precious lives being decimated with reckless abandon on a daily basis,would be the second in the agenda.

    The third in the agenda would be to drastically cut down corruption which has become so entrenched in our political space and business environment that it is looking like it is embedded in our DNA and therefore part of our culture. Of course that is a false narrative that must be erased from the  psyche of Nigerians.

    Now, PDP presidential candidate,Atiku Abubakar had picked his running mate shortly after the primaries.

    Although his choice of delta state governor, lfeanyi Okowa has been tempestuous, largely because the preferred candidate of PDP leadership and follower-ship appears to be governor of Rivers state,Nyesom Wike who although is the presidential aspirant that garnered the next highest vote after the winner; and a veritable pillar of support for the PDP in the past seven years; but he got passed over or neglected for appointment as Abubakar’s running mate. That has precipitated the rumble that has culminated into the ongoing resistance by southern governors and key stakeholders in the main opposition party which still persists.

    And that could be a dampener or glitch in the otherwise fast moving train that had gathered the momentum for PDP to return to Aso Rock Villa after its unceremonious exit in 2015.

    PDP’s case is not as bad as that of the ruling party, APC where it’s candidate has taken more or less one month (8th June to 10th July) to pick a running mate.

    Tinubu took long in choosing his running mate, Kashim Shetima, former Borno State governor and a fellow Muslim owing to the dilemma of being a southern Muslim who must nominate a running mate from the north, where incidentally, Muslims are in the majority.

    With a Muslim-Muslim ticket ,Tinubu and the ruling party have a monumental and Herculean task of convincing southern and northern Christians to vote for him as president in 2023. That standpoint is simply derived from the fact that Christians have been feeling marginalized under president Buhari’s watch,which although had a Christian Vice President in the person of Yemi Osinbajo, yet suffered exclusion from governance. How much more worse would it get ,if no Christian would be at the table inside Aso Rock Villa seat of presidential power from 2023 , they may wonder.

    Of all the major political parties,only the LP and it’s presidential candidate seem to have gotten the ethnic and religious balancing equation right.

    That is simply because Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the party, a Christian from Anambra state has picked Datti Baba-Ahmed a Muslim from Kaduna state. It is such a perfect combination in the ethno-religious calculus reminiscent of the Shehu Shagari and Alex Ekwueme combination in 1979 that it looking like a de-ja-vu.

    The labor party achieved that feat after exercising the option of place-holder like the APC.

    Much as the pairing of President and vice Presidential candidates of labor party is an ideal combination,it is not really a critical factor, but it matters.

    That is why a Muslim-Muslim ticket that Bola Tinubu has settled for is rubbing off roughly on members of the other faiths.

    Applying the analogy of a game of gulf, the  APC Presidential candidate, Tinubu’s dilemma can be likened to a player who has hit the ball and it has fallen into a stream in the golf course which is a major bogey ; while Abubakar’s situation is like that of a player whose ball was struck with the club but it has landed in a bunker and a bogey  ; just as LP’s candidate, Obi looks like a player that has made a powerful hit of the ball and it landed out of the range of  the hole, so that it is highly unlikely to be successfully potted into the hole in the number of times required by the rules of the game.

    In conclusion, my take is that the PDP candidate, Atiku Abubakar has a better chance of potting the ball out of the bunker into the hole, if he is able to calm the brewing Wike storm swiftly and dexterously. It is still better than APC candidate Bola Tinubu,who is highly handicapped as his ball has landed in a stream and it is likely out of his sight.

    That simply means that his presidential quest may be in jeopardy of being dead on arrival after choosing his running mate, since a Muslim-Muslim ticket which worked in 1993 when Moshood Abiola,a Muslim philanthropist from the south west,like him,paired up with Babagana Kingibe,also a Muslim from Borno state to win the presidential contest in 1993 that is acclaimed to be the fairest and freest in the annals of Nigeria’s electioneering process.

    Today, in light of the polarization of the country along ethnic and religious divides in the past decade or so, such a prospect now looks like an anathema in Nigeria where a stanza in the old national anthem “ … though tribe and tongue may differ, in brotherhood we stand … appear to be so quaint and such an anathema due to the elevated level of politics of religiosity and ethnicity that have enveloped the political atmosphere obfuscated the brotherhood of yore.

    For the reasons above , APC and it’s Presidential torch bearer, Bola Tinubu have a perfect storm in their hands and Atiku Abubakar and PDP baring any more goofs or gaffes may be on the verge of singing joyfully into Aso Rock Villa.

    Magnus onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.

    To continue with this conversation, pls visit www.magnum.ng

  • Nigerian Politicians And 2023 Primary Elections Hangovers – By Magnus onyibe

    Nigerian Politicians And 2023 Primary Elections Hangovers – By Magnus onyibe

    If the hangovers were the type that one feels after a revelry, or binge with friends after which one is reluctant to go back to work the next day ,it would not have mattered much .

    That is because, excessive alcoholic intake can be taken care of by engaging in quick detoxification. And being not keen to return to work can be cured by a reality check of the fear of being fired from the job or suffering income loss , if one’s boss is fair enough to make absence from work a loss of pay for only the period of absence.

    But the hangover being suffered by Nigerian politicians after the party primaries for the 2023 general elections that were held mostly during the end of the month of May and first week of June is much more than that.

    That is especially so for the presidential candidates of the two main political parties- ruling APC and main opposition, PDP that are now grappling with the dilemmas which their emergence have triggered via the actions of both parties in choosing their presidential candidates against the run of play.

    By now, it must be clear to most Nigerians that the two personalities – Bola Ahmed Tinubu, BAT in the case of APC and Atiku Abubakar, AA in the case of PDP are two powerful politicians whose political sagacity and ingenuity defied all logic to emerge as the candidates of their respective parties.

    In light of the above , they are irksome to some members even in the parties in which they are presidential flag bearers, simply because  their candidacy is fraught with technicalities that are disruptive to the traditional political settings , and therefore represent a major paradigm shift in the annals of Nigeria’s political office contestation at the presidential levels.

    Traditionally, if a presidential candidate is from the north,usually Hausa/Fulani and a Muslim , the running mate is often someone from the south , lgbo,ljaw or Yoruba. That has been the case since 1979 with Alhaji Shehu Shagari , a Muslim and Hausa/Fulani from Sokoto state who paired with Dr Alex Ekwueme, a Christian and an lgbo from Anambra state as presidential and vice presidential candidates respectively.

    Ditto for Olusegun Obasanjo, a Yoruba Christian from Owu in Ogun state and Atiku Abubakar , from Jada, Yola in Adamwa state , that were bestriding the Presidency and Vice Presidency , from 1999 to 2007. How can we  forget Umaru Yar’adua , a Muslim Hausa /Fulani from katsina state and Goodluck Jonathan Christian from Otuoke in  Bayelsa state presidency and Vice Presidency , 2007-2010 , as well as Jonathan and Namadi Sambo , a Muslim Fulani from Kaduna state presidency and Vice Presidency , 2011-2015.

    Even under military rule , pre and post 1979 return to democracy with Shagari and Ekwueme at the helm of affairs as President and Vice President, the military dictators were sensitive enough to observe and respect the delicate ethnic and religious lines by balancing the ethnic and religious fault lines required to keep our country on even keel.

    Having set the stage by putting things in context , it is proper that l dissect the hangovers that are being suffered by both BAT and AA , who are clearly the presidential front runners in 2023 and dwell a little bit on the threats posed by the fringe parties and the chances or otherwise of their candidates in having a shot at calling the shots in Aso Rock Villa next year.

    Beginning with the APC , where the apparent political miscalculations during the June 6-7th APC presidential convention, presumably careened out of control, following the underestimation of APC national leader, Bola Tinubu ,to pull a chestnut out of fire by becoming the presidential candidate of APC , against all odds , and which is one of the causes of the debilitating hangover now being suffered by the party . It is as a consequence of that unforeseen development of which the APC was clearly unprepared, that it is now contending with the hangover of swimming against the tide of finding a running mate that would compliment its candidate rather than threatening the chances of the party and worse still , endangering the unity of our country.

    That is basically because,a Muslim -Muslim ticket which appears to be the best option open to BAT, by all measures seems to be an anathema in light of the current high dissonance level between Muslims and Christians in Nigeria .

    That point is driven home by the media statements being issued by various Christian groups and even a Muslim interest platform that have expressed aversion to such an arrangement at the presidential level,which is significant.

    In a media report currently making the rounds , over the weekend, a group known as Nigeria Democracy Defense Watch ,(NDDW) led by the Ahmed Ibrahim Adamu and Otunba Adeniji Adegoke wrote a letter to president Buhari suggesting that ”a Muslim-Muslim ticket May portray Nigeria as an Islamic and sectarian nation”

    It may be argued that the late Moshood Kashimawo Okikiola, MKO Abiola, a Yoruba Muslim like BAT, contested for the presidency under the SDP in 1993 by pairing with Ambassador Babagana Kingibe, another Muslim from Borno state and won. But the level of ethnic and religious animosity now prevailing in our country manifesting in extreme hostility was absent in 1993.

    In fact , the oddity of a Muslim-Muslim presidency may be the critical,but unannounced reason that the June 12, 1993 election believed to the fairest of political party elections in Nigeria was annulled by then head of state general Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida,IBB.

    As it may be recalled,lBB had indicated in the numerous media interviews that he has granted in nearly 30 years after the sad event of June 12 1993 election annulment, that it was done to assuage the anger of members of the military- perhaps his kitchen cabinet who were opposed to the development.Hopefully, IBB would reveal exactly the identity of the officers that were opposed to his allowing MKO Abiola’s victory to be upheld and their reason for being so resolute about it in his memoir, if he eventually writes it or authorizes one.

    Before then, it needs being brought to the fore that in uncanny ways, the June 1993 annulment of the presidential elections won by MKO Abiola by IBB echoes or bears similarity to the January 6 ,2020 attempted annulment of Joe Biden’s victory as president of the United States of America, USA, by then president Donald Trump and which is currently being investigated by the congress of that country.The parallel lies in the fact that then incumbent president Trump tried unsuccessfully to get congress to upturn the election victory of Biden via pressure on Vice President Mike Pence and members of the parliament to deny Biden’s victory by using the occasion of the statutory endorsement and validation by parliament to invalidate the result. But for the existence of robust institutions of democracy in the USA ,Trump would have had his way in the manner that Babangida successfully annulled June 12, 1993 presidential elections of which MKO

    Abiola, who was the adjudged winner, but was denied the crown.

    As a country that believes in engaging in post mortem of events in order to avert future occurrence, the congress of the USA is investigating the June 6, 2020 invasion of The Capitol, by pro-Trump insurgents who besieged the Congress hall and unleashed mayhem on congress men and women while in the process of endorsing Biden’s victory. Right now, the inquisition is being carried out in the full glare of Americans via live television broadcast . Unsurprisingly, that was not the case with June 12, 1993 annulment in Nigeria and one of the reasons, Africa is referred to as a dark continent, and why,indeed Nigeria is still in the doldrums and even deemed as an basket case  in the comity of civilized countries.

    That being the case , how June 12 , 1993 happened has remained a mystery, and subject of conjecture as l have just done by speculating that non-acceptance of Muslim-Muslim presidency by some influential military high command members may be an unsung reason.

    For the sake of emphasis, had we as a nation known what informed the decision by lBB and his kitchen cabinet to annul June 12th presidential election via a public enquiry whose report is made public , perhaps it would have been legislated against and maybe Bola Ahmed Tinubu would not be caught in a similar web today.

    And our country’s leaders lack of interest in looking at the past experience with June 12th 1993 debacle to enable it chart a better future in our presidential elections may be attributable to the fact that the sad event occurred under a military dictatorship that is opaque, as opposed to a democracy where transparency is a sine qua non.

    Worse still, even where a panel of inquiry were to be  set up to examine the cause of such an aberration, the reports are likely to be swept under the carpet. Take Oputa Panel Report for instance. It is an investigative panel set up by president Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999 to investigate human rights abuse from 1984 to 1999 when Nigeria was ruled by the quartet of generals, Abdulsalami Abubakar, Sani Abacha,  Ibrahim Babangida, and then general Muhammadu Buhari , military head of state ,1983-85 and 1985-1993 ,1993 -1998 and 1998-1999 respectively.

    The panel of enquiry headed by late justice Chukwudifu Oputa,with bishop Hasan Kukah as secretary wrote a report that never saw the light of day,hence our country failed to under go a reset in the manner that Rwanda has witnessed a rebirth after its ethnic cleansing tragedy in 1994.

    Apart from the challenge of both the president and his vice being of the same faith which appears untenable given the prevailing circumstances of religious disharmony in our country, that has been elevated to a frightening level in the past decade or so;and which is like an albatross hanging over the presidential candidate of the APC , Bola Ahmed Tinubu: the minimum educational qualifications that a Nigerian president should possess is another major cause of indigestion in Tinubu’s camp.

    Both of these factors -Muslim -Muslim ticket palava and minimum educational qualifications imbroglio are the reasons the winner of the APC presidential primaries has been unable to consummate his victory nearly one month after he won it such that instead of appointing a running mate, he opted for a place-holder .

    Evidently, his inability to appoint a substantive running mate rather than  exercising the option of nominating a place-holder in the person of lbrahim Masari from katsina state, does not augur well for his presidential ambition because it is tricky. But owing to the prevailing circumstances, he needed to beat INEC deadline by buying time while trying to figure out the intricacies of ethnic and religious realities that define our politics, and the Place-Holder concept lends itself as temporary solution .

    A Place-Holder which is an option that Tinubu exercised has thus entered into the lexicon of Nigerian political actors and it is now a popular line of action in the political space as other presidential candidates, (not the PDP) have copied the innovative concept pioneered by the inimitable Bola Tinubu who is best known for his sagacity having been the one who institutionalized deputy governors being political neophytes having leant a bitter lesson from his hard fight to fend off his first deputy, the politically savvy Kofoworaola Bucknor, that allegedly was bent on impeaching him. It was Tinubu who also changed for good the concept of Local Government Areas, LGAs to Local Council Development Authorities, LCDAs after winning a landmark legal battle against then president Olusegun Obasanjo. So, it is to his credit that the concept of creating additional local councils by states has now become standard. By contributing another feature like the Place-Holder concept that is currently a fad into the political milieu, Tinubu has by and large become another touch bearer.

    It is against that backdrop that, BAT , who has issues with the academic certificates that he submitted or did not submit to the Independent National Electoral Commission , INEC has become another source and cause of tension and talking point engaging the attention of Nigerians from the mosques , churches, barbers shops, market squares to online social media platforms dominated by the youths, as they animately and passionately debate what the future portends.

    The question now is , would Tinubu , who given the fact that he has successfully fought numerous political battles- university of Chicago certificate scandal as lagos state governor ,1999-2007 and alleged narcotics racketeering indictments in the USA during his sojourn in the Diaspora as recently reported by Bloomberg , survive the current bogeys- Muslim-Muslim ticket which is likely his last resort, at a great risk , and minimum educational qualifications quagmire of which he may be compelled to present his primary and secondary school certificates to avoid being disqualified ?

    Given his antecedents of navigating political stormy waters , his fans believe that BAT like the proverbial cat that has nine lives would prevail as they are optimistic that the current ill wind would eventually blow away.

    On the part of the main opposition, PDP and it’s presidential candidate, Turaki Atiku Abubakar , since his emergence as the flag bearer on 28th May , there has arisen more or less been an anarchic situation of a stunning proportion.

    It started with the party going against its presidency rotation policy practiced since it was birthed in 1998/99 and embedded in its constitution. In the belief that an opposition party may not be compelled so much to hinge its future on a party dogma than leveraging a winning formula and candidate with the brightest chance to win , the rotation pendulum was not allowed to swing to the south as was expected. Instead, a more pragmatic approach of building on the momentum (about 13 million votes) already gathered by her presidential candidate in the last presidential contest in 2019,Atiku Abubakar was adopted. To some extent , unlike the unforeseen circumstances that threw up Asiwaju Tinubu as the presidential candidate of the APC, the emergence of Abubakar as PDP’s standard bearer can not be said to be unanticipated.

    That is underscored by the fact that the party debated and agreed to throw its presidential candidacy open instead of rotating it exclusively to the south, as it should have, all things being equal.

    Like the quagmire afflicting the APC which looks like catch 22, by not respecting the party’s presidential rotation agreement , the PDP has left a bad taste in the mouth, not only of PDP members from the south east and south zones which are the party’s strong hold, but also of the middle belters who have been vociferous along with Ohaneze-lgbo sociopolitical group , PANDEF -Niger Delta platform of the same hue with Ohanaze and Middle Belt Forum, MBF,  a north central states political forum who are thumping their noses at the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar.

    Further muddying the water is the fact that , Nyesom Wike,the current governor of Rivers state ,who is from the south-south zone , also contested for the presidential ticket ,and ended up as the first runner up to the winner of the contest.But he has subsequently been passed over as running mate to Atiku Abubakar. Denying Nyesom Wike a consolatory price as Vice Presidential candidate in light of the fact that he has been the major pillar of support for the PDP since it lost the presidency in 2015 , has gaslighted the party which at this point in time should have been taking advantage of the cul de sac that the difficulty in choosing a Vice Presidential candidate poses to Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s presidential ambition. But instead, PDP presidential candidate, Abubakar is struggling to glue together the party which currently seems to be on tenterhooks because of the unbalanced equation of distribution of party posts whereby both the PDP presidential candidate and party chairman are from the same north, leaving the south in the lurch.

    It is rather unfortunate that a combination of the present actions and inactions of PDP leadership as well as the burden of the former president Olusegun Obasanjo, OBJ who was Atiku Abubakar’s boss , relentlessly tagging his former second-in-command as corrupt without proof,and Bloomberg’s equally excoriating report on allegations of financial malfeasance in the USA against Turaki Abubakar,of which there is also no evidence of conviction of the crime against the PDP presidential candidate, constitute significant obstacles and impediments to PDP’s return as the ruling party at the center in 2023.

    Again, there is solace in the fact that Atiku Abubakar who is a veteran of several presidential contests at both the party primaries levels and as the candidate of his party in presidential elections in 2019 , is an established and proven goal getter with an indomitable spirit and capacity to win. It is unsurprising that in a recent press statement, he has vowed to mend the broken fences within the party , just as the BOT chairman of the party, senator Walid Jibrin has recommended a high powered diplomacy shuttle involving both the presidential candidate and his running mate to Nyesom Wike who has been been let down by the party that he invested a lot in building in the past seven (7)  years. Reportedly, both the APC and Labor party are seeking his hands in political marriage.

    Hopefully, the need to forge a common front before 2023 by applying a healing balm on the wounds of those whose ox were gored during the vicious battle fought in the course of the party primaries would not be treated with levity by Atiku Abubakar in the manner that Goodluck Jonathan allowed the PDP to collapse in 2015, by engaging in foolish pride of not seeking rapprochement with aggrieved critical stakeholders before they started jumping ship.

    All things being equal, would Turaki Atiku Abubakar be luckier than he was in 2019  and prevail in the impending 2023 presidential contest ?

    Given the prevailing political dynamics in our country whereby citizens are disdainful of the horrendous level of insecurity of lives and properties, as well as the unprecedented level of hunger and starvation stalking the land , which can best be characterized as extreme state of anomie , the presidency of Nigeria is for the PDP and Atiku Abubakar to lose, if they do or do not get their acts right early enough.

    And the hand writing is already on the wall if the massive defections from

    APC to PDP in Sokoto and Katsina states as well as across the country is anything to go by. Despite the positive optics, reconciliation efforts to calm. Frayed nerves need to be afoot right now.

    Aside from the dissonances in the two major parties-the APC and PDP towards their quest for clinching the 2023 due to ethnic and religion configuration challenges -accentuated by the complexities foisted by heightened ethnic and religious rivalries , there is another threat.

    And the threat is that those that the APC and PDP should be watching from their rear mirror are the Labor Party, LP, energized by ex presidential candidate of PDP who decamped,mr Peter Obi, now a wave making presidential candidate of the LP and Nigerian National Political Party, NNPP , founder and presidential candidate , Dr Musa KWAKWANSO, a former governor of Kano state.

    On their own , both parties and candidates pose no real threat. But combined ,they can constitute a real danger to both APC and PDP mission to Aso Rock Villa in 2023.

    To be clear, while l do not see a path way to KWAKWANSO being a running mate to Obi as being speculated , it is not impossible that both parties may agree to poll resources together in a support of either of both political party’s candidates especially for the presidential election.

    An even greater threat is a combination of all the opposition parties apart from the PDP against the ruling party, APC.

    That would be reminiscent of what happened in 2013/14 when four opposition political parties collapsed their systems into one platform-the APC which they were able to leverage in ousting the PDP after 16 years of holding sway as the ruling party at the centre.

    Currently , there are activities towards making such political phenomenon happen again, and it can not be discountenanced or dismissed because there is already proof of concept evidenced by the gang up and subsequent ability of APC to kick out PDP in 2015.

    Nothing stops that positive history from being re-enacted in 2023 because it need not take another sixteen (16) years for it to materialize .

    Whilst , it is not yet known whether any of the two major parties would woo the smaller parties with a view to merging with or subsuming them into their fold in the manner that the big banks took over smaller ones in the wake of banking consolidation in Nigeria in the last decade , it is unlikely that any single party, APC or PDP would without coalition with other political parties rule over Nigeria from 2023.

    And that would be a positive development for democracy in Nigeria, since the president in 2023 would not have the sole authority to allot all the strategic positions to his kith and kins or members of same faith with him which is presently a sore point and a major reason that the unity of our country is on a precipice.

    In the event that the party that ultimately wins the presidential contest rules in partnership with one or two smaller parties such as LP,NNPP, APGA , PRP , YPP etc, strategic government positions would be shared equitably amongst the partnering party platforms .

    That is because these micro parties which are fast developing sturdy roots in their local catchment areas -ethnic or religious enclaves- would be formidable local forces, unless the behemoths like APC , PDP and to lesser extent LP and NNPP,  ahead of the 2023 presidential polls, absorb them.

    All said and done , authorities should do well to define what minimum educational qualifications to be eligible to become president of Nigeria entails. During the launch of my book , “Becoming President of Nigeria. A Citizen’s Guide “ on 10th May , the keynote speaker professor Mike Ikhariale, a constitutional lawyer noted that contrary to popular views, the minimum educational qualification for a president of Nigeria is not first school leaving certificate. But no certificate at all . All that is required is ability to comprehend and speak English language and that would be determined by INEC, not any law court.

    Making that clarification would spare Nigerians the anguish of constantly being bombarded with the question of what is the minimum educational qualifications of a presidential candidate?

    It is a challenge that the incumbent president Buhari’s candidacy also threw up in 2015 and 2019. I would not be surprised if that matter that dogged Buhari’s presidency is still in court. That the APC candidate, Bola Tinubu is also currently being wracked by that malaise,  is simply because it is a nebulous rule that the National Assembly,NASS can make clearer as it did with the lacuna created by not transmitting power to the Vice President when president Umaru Yar’adua of blessed memory suddenly passed away on active duty in 2010. Although, the challenge was temporarily solved with the enactment of the Doctrine Of Necessity, it has subsequently been corrected permanently by an act of parliament which makes it automatic the absence of a president to imply that his deputy is in charge .

    By the same token , the Muslim-Muslim presidency conundrum, is also a Tinubu nightmare. That is despite Kaduna state governor, Nasir El Rufai’s experiment of that configuration in his state where both he and his deputy are Muslims.

    And as we all know , Kaduna state is the ground zero for ethnic and religious conflicts and the leading state in death tolls or human carnage arising from violent clashes. The tragic event in that state may likely be a direct or indirect fall out of the political configuration at the governorship level.

    As an antidote to the Muslim-Muslim ticket miasma, perhaps it would help If all the strategic posts such as President, Vice President, Senate President, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Chief Justice , etc were to be laid on the bargaining table for sharing . Were that to be the case , maybe  there would not be so much hullabaloo about a Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket, if upfront , Christians also get lucrative posts that would checkmate aberrant behavior by the executive. That is assuming the current polarization of our country along religious lines does not ebb but persists.

    Similarly, if rotation of presidency that was hashed out during the 1994/5 general Sani Abacha convened constitutional conference were to have been embedded in the 1999 constitution by the various National Assemblies from 1999 till date ,it would not trigger the bad blood now roiling the rank and file of PDP.

    Curiously,  both the Nasir El-Rufai committee report on how the APC can move forward and the Bala Mohamed committee set up by the PDP to chart the future of the party made recommendations on how our beloved country can experience a rebirth .

    How and why our leaders have chosen to ignore those monumentally useful recommendations, beats me hollow.

    Then again , is that not why it is often said that politics is complex ?

     

    Magnus onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.

    To continue with this conversation, pls visit www.magnum.ng

  • Implications Of Revolt By Justices And Circus Show In Supreme Court – By Magnus Onyibe

    Implications Of Revolt By Justices And Circus Show In Supreme Court – By Magnus Onyibe

    Following the sack of Walter Onnoghen as Chief Justice of Nigeria , CJN in 2019 and particularly in the twilight of the first term of the outgoing administration, under circumstances that are still befuddling to the uninitiated, the judiciary stated convulsing. And it appears to have remained in the sick bay thereafter.

    In his first public statement after his ouster , the immediate past CJN said the following during a book launch in 2021  : “Prior to my suspension, I was confronted with no allegation. There were rumours that I met with Atiku in Dubai. As I am talking here today, I have never met Atiku one on one in my life.

    “As if that was not enough, I was also accused of setting free high-profile criminals, whereas I ceased to be a High Court Judge as far back as 1978.

    “In Supreme Court, I did not sit alone. We sat in panel. In all these rumours and outright accusations, I was not given opportunity to defend myself.

    “Let me make it clear that the office of the CJN was not for Onnoghen but for all Nigerians who had sworn to guide and protect the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

    “To say the least,the period of my ordeal was the darkest era in the history of the Nigerian judiciary.”

    Perhaps, as a fall out of the cold treatment meted to ex CJN Onoghen , the Supreme Court which is the apex judiciary institution in our country, appears to have been stricken by a debilitating disease that is manifesting the symptoms of cancer.

    And it might as well be a cancerous infection as being suspected because that strange disease that infected the system since 2019 seem not to be responding to treatment,positively.

    Instead ,the infirmity which by all intents and purposes is self inflicted,appear to have metastasized. Hence it has not only degenerated into an open revolt of fourteen (14) justices against the current Chief Justice of Nigeria,CJN , Tanko Mohammad via a petition letter written to him and leaked to the public about the deplorable welfare condition of the senior members of the Judiciary who are supposed to be crème de la crème and thus entitled to premium privileges, instead they are getting a raw deal via denial of most of the perks and appurtenances of which they are entitled.

    It is not only in the dirty internal fight which has spilled into streets that the rot in the judiciary is manifesting. But the toxic state of affairs in the third arm of government has also taken a dramatic turn in the literary and common sense of the word.

    While the dust was yet to settle on the  blithe created by the spat between the justices in the apex court , a parody of the recent Supreme Court judgement legalizing the wearing of hijab by Muslims to school and as they deem fit, a human rights lawyer, Malcom Omoirhobo whose religious faith is African traditional worship appeared in the hallowed chambers of the apex court decked out in Oluokun worshippers attire akin to a native doctor’s costume.

    It is needless stating that turning up in court in such an outlandish outfit did not only cause a stir, but it was a powerful unspoken statement against the mixing up of religion and politics which the Supreme Court has via the ruling put its imprimatur on, wittingly or unwittingly.

    In justification of the protesting lawyer’s action,he made the assertion below  :

    “I am very grateful to the Supreme Court. Just last week Friday, they made a very resounding decision that promotes Section 38 of the constitution.That is our right to freedom of thought, conscience, and religion.

    “That we are free to express our way of worship in our schools and in our courts. That decision was reached on Friday and that has encouraged me.

    “Because I am a traditionalist and this is the way I worship.Based on the decision of the Supreme Court, this is how I will be dressing henceforth in court because I am a strong adherent to ‘Olokun’, the god of rivers.”

    Clearly, his statement is tongue in cheek and a sort of mockery of the somewhat convoluted and jaundiced justice system that has found a foothold in our country, and he got the attention that he desired via the drama .The wise crack:action speaks louder than voice rings true here.

    The embarrassing level of absurdity currently bedeviling the Supreme Court in particular and the judiciary in Nigeria, is disconcerting and unacceptable because it is the third arm in the political leadership triumvirate comprising of the executive, legislative and judiciary which is a typical feature in a democratic system of government that Nigeria is practicing.

    The incumbent CJN, Tanko Muhamad has denied any wrong doing and defended himself by stating that the judiciary arm like the other two arms of government, is suffering from paucity of funds to meet the expectations of the justices,despite the N110 billion reportedly allocated to the judiciary in budget 2022.

    But the offensive by the justices venting their spleen on the CJN exposes the level of decadence in the temple of justice where those who have the privilege of seating there,are supposed be in more ways than one,super humans.

    That is by virtue of the fact that they seat in judgement over the rest of the members of society who are considered lesser mortals. And that being the case,they are meant to be above board and do not have the luxury of descending into the arena of less mortals by washing their dirty linens in public which the highlighted absurdities besetting the judiciary evince.

    Apparently,l am not alone in worrying about the descent of the judiciary from the high pedestal where it deservedly seats to mingle with ordinary mortals in our country that have been reveling in everything vile. And it is the reason a former British prime minister, David Cameron at a cocktail on the sideline of a global anti corruption conference, with president Mohammadu Buhari of Nigeria in attendance,whispered into the ears of the Queen of England, Elizabeth ll ,that our president is the leader of a fantastically corrupt country.That is in-spite of president Buhari’s avowed intolerance for corruption.

    Professor Itse Sagay, a legal luminary and lately chairman of Presidential Advisory Committee Against Corruption, PACAC , the committee on anti corruption set up by president Buhari to combat graft soon after he took over the reins of governance in 2015,in his autobiography launched on 12th May titled: All Will Be Well,dwelt on the pervading crisis of corruption that recently caused a ruckus in the judiciary to the extent that it triggered a hiatus in the top echelon of the court system, particularly concerning some Supreme Court justices who were arrested in gestapo style by men of the Directorate of State Security, DSS and arraigned largely for being in possession of huge sums of foreign currencies found in their homes.

    Just before the current crisis rocking the judiciary burst into the open,I had just scanned through the aforementioned book by the respected professor Sagay who dedicated a whole chapter titled, THE JUDICIARY AND JUSTICE IN A DEVELOPING SOCIETY LIKE NIGERIA to his concerns about the sordid state of affairs in his primary constituency-the legal profession.

    I was particularly drawn to the content of a topic in the book which he aptly subtitled “Corruption, Abhorrent to Judicial Culture”.

    Let us hear it directly from Sagay as he espouses and articulates his thoughts in the excerpt below which has a bearing on the despicable events now wracking the judiciary.

    “In a modern civilised state, members of the Legislative and Executive branches of government can afford to be corrupt without dangerously affecting the development and survival of the state, but not so, the judiciary. A modern state cannot survive large scale judicial corruption.That will bring chaos, confusion and anarchy.

    He argues further that “Even during the pristine, hallowed and much lamented First Republic, major political figures were accused and tried for corruption. A Commission of Enquiry was even set up to enquire into the alleged corrupt act of a major political figure. He resigned his high political position as head (Premier) of a Regional Government,parliament was dissolved, an election followed in which his Party was returned with a bigger majority in the relevant House of Assembly and that was that.”

    According to him “The point being made here is that the fabric of society was not shaken to its foundations amidst the political fervor, excitement and disagreement that followed this and other less earth-shaking developments. Why? Because the judiciary was intact, above the frenzy, noble, detached, unruffled, neutral, the epitome of integrity, nobility and honour.”

    He then backed up his assertions above with land mark cases in the annals of Nigerian jurisprudence which l could not resist sharing here.

    “As Justice Nnaemeka-Agu declared in Ezekiel Hart v. Ezekiel Hart20, the judiciary is the ultimate guarantor of state stability. They are the third arm of government considered by the makers of constitutions as also the third in importance. But is that true? Justice Kayode Eso, delivered a Convocation Lecture at the University of Benin on 31st January 1985, in which he claimed that the Judiciary was not only only the most important arm of government but was also in fact the grundnorm of the country. This assertion was met with some credulity and skepticism at that time. But with the passage of time and with hindsight,I have increasingly appreciated the point being made by the late legal colossus.

    Consider these facts:

    (i) The judiciary is the official oversight institution of the other two arms of government.

    (ii) Whenever there is a dispute between any of the other two arms of government, the judiciary precides and decides which of them is right or wrong. This applies to disputes between the federal government and any state, between states themselves, between governments (federal and state) and individuals, both corporate and natural.

    (iii) The judiciary can uphold the validity of any action or law or invalidate it with an order nullity.

    (iv) It is the judiciary that decides what is law and what is not law.

    (v) To my knowledge, the judiciary has once been asked to determine the sex of a party in a case before it. In Corbett v. Corbett [1971] p. 83, the petitioner was born a man but had undergone sex change operation to become a woman.

    Thereafter, she lived as a woman, worked successfully as a female model and was recognised as a female for passport and insurance purposes. She got married to a man, and later petitioned for the dissolution of her marriage. It was argued that since it was not a marriage between a man and a woman, it was void and should simply be annulled not dissolved. The judge had to decide whether to nullify the marriage as a void marriage or dissolve it as a valid one. This was before same sex marriages were allowed. It was held that the marriage was void because the petitioner was still biologically male by gonadal, genital and chromosomal tests. Therefore the petitioner remained a male person.

    (vi) It is only the judiciary that can order that life be taken by condemning a person to death.”

    As a man who does not take prisoners , as such  unafraid to call a spade what it is ,  professor Sagay unabashedly reminds readers of the elevated position of judges and courts in society.

    “The organisation and arrangement of a courtroom tells it all. The judge seats on a high-backed chair on a raised platform, high above the rest of the Court. Lawyers, clients, court officers – all look up at this embodiment of authority high above them.

    A judge is the indisputed master of his or her court. There is no pretense at democracy in any judicial proceedings. The lawyers apply, pray, urge, move and submit. The judge rules and decides in every case.”

    Not done with sharing his candid view about judges, courts and the rest of society, professor Sagay quipped.

    “Only one word strikes me when I enter the courtroom setting either as counsel or litigant – AWE! That is what the position of a judge is supposed to be – awe inspiring.

    And it is not empty awesomeness. The judge is equipped with power to assert his authority by sending anyone to prison, lawyers included. We are meant to respect judges and view their office as sacrosanct because they represent the source of society’s ultimate stability and as we also say they represent the last hope of the common man.”

    Lamenting the decadence currently wracking judiciary, the professor of law and octogenarian, who recently clocked 80 years of age , that has been both a teacher and practitioner of law, traveled down memory lane to recall the exploits of awe inspiring judges “Their power and authority arises, not from the Constitution or any law, but from their honour, integrity, detachment, the mystery surrounding a masquerade.

    The ultimate weapon of a judge is his high moral authority, more potent than any statutory power. This is the weapon wielded by our judges even as late as 1999. The advent of the fourth Republic has come with its own culture of debasement of our judiciary.

    When we look at the list of judges who graced our judicial benches in the First and Second Republics, we wonder whether they were colossuses from a distant world. Let me mention some names:

    Louis Mbanefo, J.I.C. Taylor, Adetokunbo Ademola, Dadi Onyeama, Baptist Coker, Udo Udoma. They ruled the waves of the judex. It was the era of when they spoke; it was done.

    After celebrating iconic legal luminaries of yore in the referenced topic in his revetting book,the very erudite legal authority continued in his treatise with his exaltation of fellow high legal minds by expounding his views in a manner that could be mistaken for pontification: “Even the second generation of Nigerian judges exercised this unquestioned authority and power. This groups includes Kayode Eso, Muhammed Bello, Chike Idigbe, Adetunji Adefarasin, Mason Begho, Andrews Otutu Obaseki, Michael Ajegbo, Chuba Ikpeazu, Anthony Anyiagolu, Chukwudifu Oputa, Atanda Fatayi-Williams, Chukwunweike Idigbe, Augustine Nnamani, Adolphus Karibi-Whyte, Philip Nnaemeka-Agu, Umaru Kalgo, Michael Oguntade, Pius Aderemi and such great names as those.”

    The learned professor Sagay then posed a poignant question “Could any renegade lawyer have had the temerity to carry a bag of dollars into the chambers of these men? Certainly not!

    Why, how and when did some of our judges so lower their guards that some miscreants in the legal profession have been able to approach them to tempt them into committing the original sin of their order?”

    While not relenting in his admonition of current members of the judiciary,the learned silk reminded them that “When a judge,who should be next to God in our hierarchy of authority, sanctity and awesomeness, accepts a bribe,the masquerade is disrobed,the myth is demystified; the small god steps down from his temple and joins the rest of us, rolling and roiling in the mud. The sanctity is lost, the aura is gone and they become subjected to the travails and humiliation suffered by ordinary men, as we saw on the night of November 20, 2016.”

    And he did not end without pointing out that “A god who descends from Mount Olympus to frolic with ordinary men should not be shocked if he is treated like an ordinary man. But this is a national tragedy that we should avoid at all costs.

    Some have said, after all judges are Nigerians and we should not expect judges to be different from the rest of society. That is blasphemy! They are different from the rest of society. Judges must not abandon their high pedestal to come and dwell with the rest of society. They are judges. They judge the rest of us. Society is doomed if judges behave like the rest of us. We would have reverted to the state of nature.”

    To underscore the exalted position of judges in society which professor Sagay argues is next to God, he referenced the holy Bible and buttressed his argument thus: “Of all the administrative inventions of man, the emergence of judges is the highest evidence of civilisation and the ascent of man. That is why in the bible, Moses the greatest prophet of the Old Testament was also the Chief Justice of the Israelites. He appointed more junior judges to man courts and tens and hundreds of litigants and sat at the final court of appeal over these cases”

    Continuing with his indignation which antagonists can characterize as being sanctimonious , the very outspoken legal icon who was literally thrown out of university of Benin ostensibly for his active involvement in activism, went into historical archives of religion to exhume records that show that political leaders were also judges  “You will all recall from the Book of Judges, that for a long time, the political leaders of Israel were also judges. Right up to the time of Jesus, the head of the temple was also the Chief Judge of the Jewish Society.

    Although judges have since shared off their political and executive powers, they are still the last resort of peace, order and good governance in any society.”

    Aside from drawing from biblical canons  , Sagay’s narrative also establishes that monarchs were also judges “Coming closer to our times, the Kings of England were for centuries also judges. The Court of the Chancellor, now Chancery developed from the King’s Palace. Equity which is superior to common law developed from the Chancellor’s Court.

    Wearing his anti corruption cap, of which he is the current Chairman of the Presidential Advisory Committee Against Cor­ruption (PACAC), he did not mince words about his disdain for corrupt people.

    “The public servants and politicians who conspire to bribe and corrupt our judges deserve especially, harsh punishment.The worst culprits in this sad and sorry state of affairs are the lawyers,mainly senior advocates,who shamelessly approach judges to introduce them into this demeaning and shameful culture.These senior advocates deserve the harshest punishment of all.The EFCC, ICPC and the Police must monitor and investigate the activities of lawyers who receive a share of the proceeds of crime as their fees. They should be treated as accessories after the fact, because they share in the proceeds of the crimes of politically exposed persons and once paid from that stained loot, it becomes their life’s struggle to protect and shield the primary criminals from the consequence of their crime.”

    The duty to accept a brief does not exonerate a lawyer, who convinced or suspects his client’s guilt, urges him to enter a plea of “not guilty” which he the goes on to defend vigorously.

    Such a lawyer would be grossly in breach of the ethics of the legal profession.”

    The former Dean of the faculty of law in University of Ife, later Obafemi Awolowo university, who happen to have been a teacher to a legion of Nigerian lawyers , offered lawyers the following advise

    “Where a lawyer is convinced after studying the law and the facts, that his client is guilty of the crime for which he is charged, it is his duty in such a case to ask his client to plead guilty and to set out the extenuating factors, if any, and plead for mercy for his client. Any other course of conduct is gross misconduct and breach of ethics of the profession. In the worst cases, we now have complicity of lawyers in their client’s crimes”

    Although professor Sagay’s intervention is voluminous,l could not resist sharing the wisdom it contains by using it as linchpin for my intervention in the crisis of confidence unfurling in our highest temple of justice – Supreme Court.

    As the saying goes: a word is enough for the wise.

    Sadly, the mess threatening to wreck the judicial system in Nigeria is a reflection of the state of anomie that now reigns supreme in the entire gamut of government in Nigeria which could  ultimately lead our beloved country into more perditions and ruins than it is in, already.

    Does the current state of insecurity in our country not echo the days of the Vikings with its origin in the Scandinavian countries that ruled over most of Europe for centuries in a manner that promoted survival of the fittest as a doctrine ?

    Although, it took a long time,after the horrific rule by the Vikings,Europe is today a model of peace,harmony and progress and beckoning to Nigeria and the rest of Africa.So all hope for a better tomorrow for Nigerians is not lost,as we await a rescuer, who would mount the presidential throne in 2023 and reset our beloved country from top to bottom as the trouble with Nigeria seem to be with the leadership, not the follower-ship.

    When l drew the attention of a very senior professor of law from one of the best universities in the USA and indeed the world to the drama at the Supreme Court staged by the lawyer who attended the apex court in his native doctor regalia, here is how he responded:

    “Honestly, I don’t blame the attorney despite the unsightly optics. The SCN has been dancing naked in recent times, what with the ongoing open altercations between the CJ and his fellow Justices over office money. You would have also noticed that the court has been churning out rulings that are unfounded in logic, jurisprudence or due process lately especially disputes with political coloration. Corruption has found a berth there.  Sad”

    Putting all together,the shenanigans and chicanery that have been suffocatingly dogging the judiciary are not without implications and future consequences.

    The dimension and potential catastrophic effect of the revolt of the 14 justices and melodrama by the lawyer in the hallowed chambers of the supreme court may not be phantom-able , right now.

    But the fall out that may presently be latent,could be simmering like molten magma underneath an active volcano, that is likely to erupt without warning.

    So the National Assembly, NASS should take more than a passing interest in the matter as they are currently doing via the investigation being conducted on the conflict by the relevant committee.

    As the lawyers would say when concluding a matter before a judge : l rest my case.

     

    Magnus onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.

    To continue with this conversation, pls visit www.magnum.ng

  • Uncanny challenges on the path to presidency for APC and PDP – By Magnus Onyibe

    Uncanny challenges on the path to presidency for APC and PDP – By Magnus Onyibe

    By Magnus Onyibe

     

    Before delving into the nitty-gritty of the obviously rough road to Aso Rock Villa seat of presidential power, permit me to draw attention to the fact that l had predicted that becoming president of Nigeria in 2023 will be a straight fight between former president, Turaki Atiku Abubakar (1999-2007 and ex Lagos state governor, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu (1999-2007).

    That is fully captured on pages 331 and 332 of my new and fast-selling book: “Becoming President of Nigeria. A Citizen’s Guide.”

    The opinion piece was first published as an article titled: “Becoming President Of Nigeria, 2023” by TheCable.ng on September 15, 2021 and other news platforms.

    Here is an excerpt:

    “Beyond the rotation of the presidency between the north and south arrangement, which seems to be taking up a huge chunk of media space as 2023 general elections loom large, other critical factors are nuanced but Germaine to the matter of who becomes the president of Nigeria in 2023. The word on the streets is that the fast-approaching 2023 presidential contest would as usual be a two-horse race between the ruling All Progressive Party, APC, and the main opposition, Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. It is also being predicted that the battle would be waged between former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of PDP and former Lagos State governor, Bola Tinubu of APC.

    The permutation that the ex-Vice President would fly the flag of the main opposition, PDP, and the ex-Lagos State governor is likely to be the flag bearer for the ruling party, APC may be based on the first mover’s advantage being enjoyed by the duo who happen to have been the most visible and active politicians that are angling for the presidency from both parties at this point. But the question of who would become the candidate for the presidency in 2023 still depends on if the ruling party, APC zones the presidency to the south as agreed when the coalition of opposition political parties against then ruling party – PDP, was in the making in 2013/14. In the event that the presidential power shift agreement is upheld, then Bola Tinubu who was instrumental to APC clinching the presidency in 2015 would be waiting in the wings to collect the flag.

    And in the case of the PDP, the possibility of the presidential candidate being Atiku Abubakar would become clearer, if the party accepts the Bala Mohammed led committee recommendations that the main opposition party jettisons her presidential power rotation policy and declare the ticket open to all interested parties. Should the foregoing proposition become manifest, the PDP may decide to rally once again behind Atiku Abubakar, her presidential candidate in 2019.”

    Allow me to also point out that both the ruling and main opposition parties, the platforms from which the president would undoubtedly emerge (despite the hype about the rising profile of the Labor Party, LP, and its presidential candidate, Peter Obi) are severely handicapped and therefore in quandary with regards to how to equitably share or distribute political positions amongst the multiple ethnic and religious groups that constitute our country.

    The dilemma of the ruling party at the center and the main opposition party is simply owed to the reality that they are both suffering similar debilities which l would like to drill down to reducing the options of political power sharing to just two-president and Vice President instead of creating multiple choices-Senate president, speaker of the House of Representatives, and their deputies, secretary to government of the federation, Chief Justice of the federation, etc to meet the expectations of the multifarious ethnic and religious interests of which our country is comprised . The crises that the presidential candidates are having in choosing their running mates is derived from the fact that political power sharing formula that is being applied is restricted to presidency rotation principles instead of applying other options such as putting all the powerful positions on the table for allocation, upfront.

    And l will dwell more on that very critical aspect of the political miasma that is currently suffocating the two presidential flag bearers of the two main political parties, shortly.

    It is important to remember that the political parties have 17th June (this Friday) deadline to submit the names of their running mates to lndependent National Electoral Commission, INEC.
    Hence the current mad rush to conclude that task.

    Before delving further into the religious and ethnic oddities that would make or mar the chances of Atiku Abubakar or Bola Tinubu becoming president of Nigeria in 2023, first of all, l would like to focus on the issues that arose and culminated in the events that shaped the just concluded presidential primaries for the ruling party, All Progressive Congress, APC, where Tinubu emerged as its flag bearer.

    It was no surprise to me and l guess most pundits, that the APC special convention, which is a precursor to the 2023 general elections would be in a dead heat soon after it commenced. That was already palpable on the eve of the event held at eagle square, Abuja, 6th-7th June.

    It all started with president Mohamadu Buhari’s high-wire consultations with major stakeholders of the party, ranging from members of the powerful governors’ forum, National Working Committee , NWC members to the already screened/vetted presidential candidates and northern governors elected on the party platform.

    And it is only the undiscerning that did not already figure out that beyond the jostle for the presidency of Nigeria in 2023, it was a power tussle between the very powerful governors forum on one hand,versus the legislature on the other hand with the presidency or cabal around it as biased umpire with self enlightened interest.

    And the supremacy battle had been ongoing from as far back as when the yet to be reformed electoral act 2010 was being considered for review to reflect current sociopolitical dynamics in our beloved country.

    To put things in context, it is important that we take a few steps back to 2018 when the bill was first reformed and sent to the president for assent and he declined on the ground that it was too close to 2019 general elections. At that point in time, although the senate presidency was with Bukola Saraki, the Cold War had begun, but it was subterranean. The battle of wits between the National Assembly, NASS, and governors burst into the fore and continued in 2020, before spilling over into 2021. It reached a crescendo in the first quarter of this year as the bill finally became a statute with president Buhari’s signature appended to it.

    Stunningly, each time the bill was passed by the legislature and sent to President Buhari for his signature to convert it into a new law, the governors quickly whispered their group interests (disguised as national interests) into president Buhari’s ears. Thereafter, it would appear as if he would withhold his assent and demand the addition or removal of some clauses. Then the legislators would go back to the trenches again and tweak the law in such a manner that their interests would be protected, then send it back to the president. Again the governors’ world return to corrupt the president with their own version of ‘national interest’ and the ‘undemocratic’ content of the bill would the subject of heated debates, sometimes with the general public getting involved. Take for instance the electronic transmission of election results from the polling booths to Independent Electoral Commission, INEC database/server which after public outcry against its expungement, and was restored.

    At some point, the bill had been so much bounced back and forth between the legislature and presidency about five (5) times, that it was like a yo-yo.

    And that is what inspired an article titled : Electoral Act Amendment Bill: Interrogating the Ogbanje/Abiku Element which l wrote and published on both traditional and new media platforms on December 25, 2021.

    Here is a snippet:

    “For the benefit of those not familiar with the African mythology, it is about a child born but with predestination to die each time she is birthed. So, tagging the electoral act amendment bill Ogbanje or Abiku was owed to the fact that NASS had conceived and given birth to the bill and sent it five times to President Buhari who had equally killed it by sending it back to the sender five times.”

    The criticality of a reformed electoral act to the future of democracy in Nigeria can not be overemphasized. But suffice it to say that it is the value of its reformation that Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu just profited from during the just concluded APC presidential primaries.

    Because without clause 84(9 a, b, c) in the electoral act 2022, Tinubu’s on going journey to Aso Rock Villa could have been truncated on the altar of consensus even before it started, and without restraint or compunction as APC chairman Adamu’s decision in the afternoon of 6th June would have been sacrosanct.

    It is welcoming that Tinubu’s doggedness and proactiveness paid off in ensuring that all the loopholes hitherto exploited by unscrupulous politicians to impose candidates were closed ahead of time.

    We will return to how the eventual winner of APC primaries was able to sneak the iron-clad clauses into the reformed electoral act 2022.

    But first, I crave your indulgence to take a deep dive into what happened in Aso Rock Villa a week before the convention and on the D-Day at the Eagle Square, Abuja.

    Even though in a meeting with APC stalwarts (NWC members and governors), president Buhari tried to remind them that they got to their positions via consensus and drew attention of the governors to the fact that he has been looking the other way while they have been imposing their preferred candidates as successors in their respective states. But he did not, or could not push through with his demand for the acceptance of his preferred candidate, perhaps due to his ambivalence or his last minute decision to provide a level playing field for all to prove their mettle. And I suspect it is more of the latter than the former.

    It may be recalled that Mr president had in a television interview, way back in January this year stated that he had a candidate that he would like to take over from him as president in 2023. And he also stated in that same interview that he would like to keep the identity of that preferred candidate close to his chest so that the blue ‘eyed prince’ would not be eliminated-it was not clear if he meant physical or political elimination.
    Apparently, since president Buhari could not or did not sell his candidate to the stakeholders, that is probably why the task was outsourced to the ruling party chairman, Abdullahi Adamu.

    That is the reason that on day one (1) of the convention, he called a meeting with the party’s National Working Committee, NWC members, and announced the person of the senate president, Ahmad Lawan as the consensus and anointed candidate.

    That decision hit a brick wall, as it resulted in a revolt by the party executives that were in attendance. The NWC members then alerted the governors, (whom in any case, they are fronting for) since it is the governors that nominated them as their preferred candidates for the party executive positions.

    Having been alerted, the all-powerful governors swung into action and demanded a meeting with the party chairman, Adamu, who tried to avoid it as he was trying to escape having the difficult conversation with the highly powerful and incensed governors.

    But inevitably, a meeting was forcefully held, and there was a walk-out from the meeting (featuring the national chairman of the party) by northern governors who had earlier recommended to President Buhari that the presidency should shift to the south. That demand that is seemingly altruistic in motive, is actually tainted with the selfish interests of the governors.

    The selfish angle lies in the fact that if senator Ahmed Lawan, a dark horse, was to become president, then it would take a minimum of sixteen years for any of the current governors to get a chance of becoming president of Nigeria.

    Obviously, in sixteen years, most of the present crop of governors would not only have lost steam, momentum, and control of the party structure; they would have also become geriatrics and likely too infirm to mount the saddle of leadership in Aso Rock Villa by the time the presidency pendulum swings back to the north.

    That is simply because hypothetically, after Lawan’s eight (8) years presidency, willy nilly, the presidency pendulum would swing back to the south for another eight (8)years making it a total of sixteen (16) years. And northern governors could not phantom or stomach why they would be in the political wilderness or lurch for that length of time. Hence they pulled the plugs on Ahmed Lawan’s opportunity of becoming president of Nigeria which had attained an apogee level before it became a casualty of the power play between governors and legislators.

    In a nutshell, the ability and capacity of governors in cahoots with members of the NWC of APC to launch a comprehensive rejection of the consensus process proposed by the party chairman, Adamu, ostensibly at the behest of President Buhari, is a product of the safety nets embedded in electoral act 2022.

    It is amazing how a consensus option that had earlier been applied in March which is barely three months ago in recruiting the party executives, got vehemently opposed by its beneficiaries. The rebellion was unanticipated by the proponents of consensus candidacy who had, had their way the last time. Owing to the swiftness of the pushback that was akin to a firestorm , the consensus exponents had no option than to beat a hasty retreat.

    The surrender by the so-called cabal driving the consensus initiative seemed like the best option at that point in time because the internal revolt of the critical stakeholders in the party against a consensus candidate process had all the trappings of a crisis that could have exploded in the manner that it would have appeared as if implosion of the party was a fait accompli.

    It was indeed a moment of truth type of experience for APC as a party and for their leaders with the intent to impose candidates without first of all getting the buy-in of co-contestants or concerned parties.

    For those that may be wondering why governors and legislators are always trying to outwit each other in the political universe, allow me to offer you a peek into the cloak and dagger relationship between them.

    First of all, most legislators are ex-governors as the senate has become a sort of retirement home for them.
    Having been governors that controlled the political apparatus within their respective states, the senators find it difficult to yield control of the political structures in their states to their successors who are indeed entitled to be the holders of the control button by virtue of the fact they are the leaders of the parties in the respective states that they preside over.

    With governors being in that pole position, during local government and ward congresses they often monopolize the power of incumbency by ensuring that it is mainly their candidates that emerge as the chairmen of councils, councilors and party executives to the consternation of legislators who once wielded such powers.

    It is such face-offs between the legislators and governors at the sub-national and grassroots levels that later snowball into crisis that emerge at the center as storms and which thereafter would evolve into the type of political war that has just been lost and won during the party primaries, from the state house of assembly, house of representatives, gubernatorial , senate and presidency stages for both the APC and PDP.

    Although it was less fractious, PDP also experienced the governors’ and legislators’ supremacy battle during its primaries as revealed by governor Nyesom Wike who has been lamenting how the governors who had formed an alliance to push one of their own and particularly, a southerner got betrayed by some of them that worked against the team spirit. Little wonder that long after the end of the exercise held nearly two weeks ago, PDP is still busy mending fences.

    Such patching up of torn fabric of the party is critical to enable it forge ahead with a common front to engage the opponents in the general elections.And l urge the stakeholders to do same at states and local government levels to enable them go into the general elections in unity.

    But after the initial scare that APC was about to be unhinged and get disintegrated during its presidential primaries, the ruling party once again pulled through, particularly as the ambition of the winner, Bola Tinubu blended with the interest of the northern governors. It is that synergistic force that enabled both to fend off the onslaught from a combination of the so called cabal and the legislature, presumably tele-guided by the presidency and prosecuted by party chairman, Adamu.

    The forgoing is a short narrative of how the ruling party, APC once again wobbled and fumbled its way through another difficult exercise in picking its presidential candidate in the manner that it had under similar challenges elected its party executives via consensus process earlier in March.

    At this juncture, it merits underscoring the fact that during the party convention where the NWC was picked, the eventual winner of the primaries, Bola Ahmed Tinubu was checkmated as the consensus option was applied. But during the special convention to elect the presidential candidate, the game changed, largely due to Tinubu’s political savviness reflected by the brinksmanship deployed in one breath, and rough and the gruff approach applied , in another breath. That perhaps validates the ex-Lagos state governor’s reputation as one of the greatest political tacticians of our time as evidenced by the fact that it was he who midwifed the birth of the APC resulting in the first of defeat of an incumbent president for the first time in the annals of Nigeria, if not Africa. And he has also been able to continue to dictate and have a leash on who becomes governor of lagos state since 1999 when he first served as the governor till date.

    To be clear, things did not pan out in favor of APC’s national leader, Tinubu only due to the selfish interest of northern governors who are waiting in the wings to contest for the office of the president in the next election circle in 8 years, as opposed to waiting for 16 years, if consensus option had been adopted and Lawan became president.

    But Tinubu’s Presidential quest gelled or overlapped with the governor’s motive as it also enabled them to present their push for the return of the presidency to the south coated with the veneer of equity, fairness, justice and for the sustenance of national unity which made them look like saints and statesmen.

    An equally significant and final arbiter is the clause 84(9 a, b, c) of the electoral act 22 which makes it compulsory for all the contestants to consent to a consensus process before it can be legitimately applied. Otherwise it would be a nullity. That is what tied the hands of those who wanted to literally do Tinubu in, the second time by attempting to adopt the consensus process in the primaries, where a candidate would have been imposed irrespective of the popularity of Tinubu, the eventual winner.

    Remarkably, that significant and critical clause was a last-minute addition to the electoral act 2022 by the House of Representatives reportedly with the speaker of the House of Representatives, Femi Gbajabiamila’s sleight of hand. And it was done after President Buhari refused to assent to the initial bill which had only direct primaries option and he was insisting on adding indirect and consensus options to party primaries process to give it a more democratic outlook of freedom of choice .

    As the lower parliament was doing that to satisfy the president’s precondition to signing off on the bill, it also had the foresight to insert the clause which would metaphorically enable those who were loathsome of the consensus option, to take back with the left hand, what they had given with the right hand.
    It might interest readers to know that it is due to the fear of the abuse of the consensus option by leaders that it was originally not included in the electoral act 2022. And as anticipated and feared, that less democratic consensus option could have been activated, if the game-changing clause 84(9 a. b. c) had not been cleverly inserted.
    Back to matters arising from the APC convention and how Tinubu emerged as the flag bearer.

    The main highlight is that in the course of the night on day two (2), a whopping seven (7) gentlemen and women who had purchased the nomination forms, submitted same to the party , and passed through all the rigorous processes stepped down for the eventual winner, Tinubu.

    These are senator Godswill Akpabio, Dr Kayode Fayemi, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, Senator Ajayi Boroffice, Mr. Dimeji Bankole, and Governor Abubakar Badaru of Jigawa, and Mrs. Uju Ohanenye. The gentlemen and lady that purchased APC presidential nomination forms at a whooping N100m each, gave up their ambition for Bola Ahmed Tinubu, whose life ambition by his own admission is to rule Nigeria.

    That is unprecedented.

    And it is not out of order to wonder if there is an undertaking by the beneficiary to refund their N100m apiece plus the cost of their electioneering campaigns before they gave up their ambitions. But that is a subject of discussion another day.

    More striking and more relevant to the issue of loyalty is the fact that most of the seven (7) candidates who stepped down for Tinubu, except Akpabio, Badaru, and Ohanenye are Yorubas.

    It is evidence of the oft-vaunted Yoruba ‘Parapo’ (translated as Yoruba solidarity).
    It should be noted that as evidence of its Republicanism , the lgbos could not consolidate their votes for a particular aspirant as the Yorubas have done.

    And contrary to the apparent perception that the ex Lagos state governor’s influence in Yoruba land had waned as his erstwhile foot soldiers-Yemi Osinbajo, Babatunde Fashola, Rauf Aregbesola, Ibikunle Amosun etal -were believed to have carved out their own political fiefdoms in Yoruba land, as such Tinubu’s sphere of influence had been whittled, proved to be unfounded.

    That is because going by the positive outcome of the APC primaries for Tinubu, he has by all standards of measure waxed stronger in stature and influence even far beyond Yoruba land to the heartland of Hausa/Fulani in Kebbi state and lbibio enclave in Akwa lbom state which are far flung places from where some of the aspirants that stepped down for him,hail .

    So, effectively, while the dream of Tinubu, ex governor of Lagos state to rule Nigeria has grown wings, the dream of 22 others who obtained the APC expression of interest and nomination forms to become president of Nigerians in 2023 and pursued it to the end,died that fateful night of Tuesday, June 7, 2022.
    One remarkable and unique aspect of the exercise is that the names of the states of the delegates were not affixed on the ballot boxes. Instead, they were assigned numerical numbers. That way the candidates were unable to tell the states of the delegates that voted for or did not vote for them. Otherwise, those that lost out might have been able to determine the states that didn’t vote for them and perhaps demand that the delegates from such states that collected financial inducements from them, but failed to keep to their promise, must make a refund of the inducement.

    The dust is yet to settle on how some disappointed aspirants had to resort to the use of thugs (since the transaction is illegal) to enforce the refund of the monetary inducements offered to delegates during other party primaries held earlier.

    Video footages depicting such rather outrageous and obscene events have been trending in the social media space in this season of politics.

    Does anyone remember the infamous police mantra : “If you don’t like the police, call a thug”?

    Indeed, Nigerians appear to have heeded the message in that slogan by resorting to engaging thugs to help them resolve matters that used to be in the purview of the police force. Who could have thought that such proposition of abnormality and absurdity would become a reality in 21st-century Nigeria?

    Nothing demonstrates the bizarre truism that our country has descended into chaotic levels of Wild, Wild, West of the hue that was experienced during the gold rush in the 17th century in 1912 in the USA, than the resort to the use of outlaws/bandits for debt collection by political actors.

    With the counting of the votes done and dusted in the early hours of Wednesday, June 8, an autopsy of the dead ambitions of APC politicians is in order.

    Before then, it is proper that we also reflect on what transpired during the party primaries for recruiting the presidential candidate of the main opposition party, PDP, that was held and concluded since 28-29 May.

    As has been widely reported, Turaki Atiku Abubakar, a veteran of several presidential elections, that has chalked up about five (5) attempts at becoming president of Nigeria in the past thirty (30) years or so, has won the PDP presidential primary contest fair and square.

    He has since been congratulated by his very formidable co-contestants, particularly Nyesom Wike, governor of rivers state and Bukola Saraki, former senate president who are the first and second runners-up.

    Like his counterpart in the APC, Tinubu, whenever Abubakar had the opportunity to contest elections fairly and openly, he always prevailed. Even when the north set up a process to produce a consensus candidate to square up against then president Goodluck Jonathan in 2011, Atiku Abubakar prevailed over the others including ex-finance minister, Adamu Ciroma of blessed memory and former head of state Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, amongst others.

    The only occasions that Abubakar who is a political maverick failed to win , there were conspiracies to hobble him.

    Be it when former president Olusegun Obasanjo whom he served under as Vice President in 2007, applied both overt and covert means to scuttle his presidential ambition , to when president Buhari was declared the winner of his 2019 re-election bid and which Abubakar believes that he won.

    In light of the intimidating political pedigrees of both the APC and PDP presidential candidates, 2023 presidential election promises to be a Battle Royal, and this is even more so with the Peter Obi driven youth revolution in politics that promises to significantly increase the numbers of voters turn out as he is about to convert youth bulge into a voting machine and reason that bookmakers are already placing high bets.

    Again, to put things in perspective, it is proper to cast our minds back to the onset of the jostle for the presidency of Nigeria when over 40 political actors threw their hats into the ring.

    That is specifically 17 from the PDP stable and more or less 29 from the APC platform bought the expression of interest and nomination forms. For the APC, while about 29 indicated interest, 25 aspirants returned the forms, and 23 made it past the screening stage. Although only 14 were given the final go-ahead after the screening and pruning down processes, 22 of them pitched themselves to the delegates on the night of Tuesday, June 7, 2022 with one of them, Emeka Nwajuiba absenting himself based on principle and dissatisfaction with the party for not toeing the path of a consensus candidate as allegedly agreed.

    Below is a list of APC presidential aspirants who completed the race and their scores at a glance:

    Pastor Tunde Bakare – 0,
    Hon Emeka Nwajiuba – 1,
    Gov. Dave Umahi – 38,
    Senator Ahmed Sani – 4,
    Rt. Hon. Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi – 316,
    Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu – 1,Gov. Yahaya Bello – 47,
    Senator Rochas Okorocha – 0,
    Prof. Yemi Osinbajo – 235,
    Senator Ahmad Lawan – 152,
    Gov. Ben Ayade – 37,
    Tein Jack Rich – 0,
    Chief Ikeobasi Nwaokelu – 0,
    Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu – 1271

    The list of presidential aspirants of the PDP who stayed in the game till the end is also detailed below:

    The winner of the contest, former Vice President of Nigeria, Atiku Abubakar- 371 votes,
    Governor of Rivers state Nyesom Wike 237 votes,
    Former Senate President, Bukola Saraki-70 votes
    Akwa Ibom State Governor, Emmanuel Udom -38 votes,
    Bauchi State Governor, Bala Mohammed -20 votes
    Former Senate President/SSG, Pius Anyim- 14 votes,
    Pharmacist, Sam Ohabunwa – 1 vote,
    only Female aspirant, Olivia Tariela – 1 vote,
    Media entrepreneur,Dele Momodu -0,
    Former governor of Ekiti State, Ayo Fayose -0,
    Lawyer, Charles Okwudili – 0.

    Aminu Tambuwal,Sokoto state governor stepped down for Atiku Abubakar in the manner that seven (7) aspirants also stepped down for APC’s flag bearer, Tinubu.

    Of course, the PDP presidential primary election was less tumultuous compared to the APC’s which was filled with tension.

    Conscious of limited space and time, l will only do a post-mortem on the dead ambition of the top three (3) highest scoring aspirants for the office of the president of Nigeria from both the APC and PDP.

    Having profiled Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar both of who are the winners of their respective parties’ primaries and who are currently preparing for the general elections on February 25 that promises to be a clash of the titans, allow me focus on Rotimi Amaechi, who is the next highest scorer after Tinubu followed by Yemi Osinbajo in the APC stable.

    That will dovetail into a cursory look at Nyesom Wike, then Bukola Saraki who respectively scored the second and third highest votes on the PDP platform.

    So much has already been written and said about Amaechi who some have even labeled a betrayer for pandering towards the north to the detriment of his southern kit and kins. He may be particularly hurting because apart from being a two time director-general of Buhari’s campaign organization, he made strident efforts to court the north. He even became a titled chief in Daura, Katsina state, president Buhari’s homestead. All in the bid to be accepted as one of them.

    l guess Amaechi was counting on a sort of quid pro quo from president Buhari by perhaps assuming that he was the mystical preferred candidate that Mr president alluded to in that famous January television interview. But he spectacularly lost to the man that his admirers refer to as the Jagaban , Bola Ahmed Tinubu by a very wide margin of votes.

    As for Vice President Osinbajo whose pretty best was to garner the third highest votes, it had long been settled in my mind that he was not going to become president of Nigeria in 2023 as his friends who failed to conduct a thorough research that could have enabled them offer him sound advise against the misadventure, would have loved.
    Perhaps, what gave him the Dutch courage is that he also nursed the erroneous impression that he is the preferred candidate that president Buhari had penciled down as his successor or because he is just a heart bit away, and he thought he would simply be coronated in a similar easy manner that he attained Vice Presidentship.

    I was emphatic about the impossibility of his scaling up from no 2 to 1, due to the odds stacked against him as highlighted in my article titled: Becoming President Of Nigeria, 2023 And It’s Surprises that was published on both traditional and online media platforms on 17 May , 2022. An excerpt is reproduced below:
    “Having analyzed the chances of most of the other serious aspirants, folks may be wondering why l am not reckoning with the interest being expressed by the current Vice President, Yemi osinbajo to step into the shoes of his boss, President Buhari.

    While I recognize his right to aspire to become president of Nigeria in 2023 which is only a step away from his president position, it must be recognized that there is a limit to which happenstance can carry a man. And my pragmatic prognosis which those in Osinbajo’s camp may deem as pessimistic and an affront is not meant to eviscerate him as it is derived from both trend analysis and reality check.

    With respect to historical trend analysis, Nigerian leaders, (be they presidents or governors) are hardly keen on passing on batons of political power to their deputies.

    Perhaps, it has to do with the reality that the second- in-command position (which is what a Vice President or deputy governor really is) often is deliberately and diligently selected from a pool of the politically weak. Former president Olusegun Obasanjo at the presidency level and Ex-lagos state governor, Bola Tinubu, at the governorship stage are the franchisers of that formula after learning the hard way that their deputies were more politically sagacious than them. Since, as the saying goes: ‘necessity is the mother of invention’, a counter-strategy was formulated as an antidote.

    As it has been efficacious, it is unsurprising that it is now a sort of holy grail for presidents and governors alike.”

    After his colossal loss of the contest to his former boss and the man who drafted him into politics , Osinbajo will also bear the indelible scar of being tagged a betrayer for the rest of his life.

    With respect to the losers in PDP, While Rivers state governor, Wike is loved in the south for standing up for southern interests while engaging with his northern counterparts, he is despised in the north for his perceived aggression against them. He is known to complain about northern hegemony and even went to court to seek resolution on whether north is entitled to value added tax money generated from the sale of alcohol and other items forbidden in the north owing to their Islamic faith. Such aggressiveness is being counted against him.

    But make no mistake about it, Wike is loved at home and around the south-south side of our vast country.
    As for Bukola Saraki, the scion of senator ,Olusola Saraki of blessed memory, (himself a veteran of many battles) , he has always proven that he is a true son of his father.

    That is evidenced in his triumphing in the multiple battles that he has engaged in throughout his checkered political career which spans when he first got appointed as an aid to president Obasanjo in 1999 to becoming two terms governor of Kwara state and eventually a senator, then president of the senate before eying the presidency in 2019 of which he lost to Turaki Atiku Abubakar, during primaries, to whom he has succumbed to , a second time in the primaries held last month end.

    In my reckoning , these monumental disappointments are severe enough to traumatize these political actors profiled above. If not them directly, their family members such as their offsprings and wives who are often drawn into the political arena .

    But because some politicians are thick-skinned,nothing fazes them. Hence the key participants in the last party primaries appear unperturbed as they have been getting on with their daily chores as if they were triumphant in their last endeavors that went awry.

    Now, the uncanny challenges on the path to presidency for both APC and PDP have been narrowed down to the choice of Vice President candidates for the duo of Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu who are the presidential candidates of both parties respectively.

    And the odds are against both of them because of the reduction of the pie to just two when it can be multiple pies out on the table for equitable sharing .
    Here is the deal:

    Apart from the office of the president and Vice President, how about senate president, speaker of the House of Representatives and deputy senate president and deputy speaker , secretary to the government of the federation, Chief Justice of the federation, which are equally significant offices that can be put on the table from the get-go for assignment to the various ethnic and religous interest groups that are jostling to be included in the leadership of government. It is critical in order to create a balance or semblance of inclusiveness in the equation or calculus of who gets what in the comity of multiple ethnic nationalities and faiths.It is important that all significant offices are added to the package upfront so that there would be assurance to all the ethnic and religious groups that there is enough political offices to spread equitably across board in order to give all partners in the union a sense of belonging.

    As a trained negotiator, l learnt that the hallmark of a satisfactory agreement is the creation of multiple options that would be laid on the table so that there would be a variety of choices for all the parties in the negotiation. Frankly, limiting the sharing of offices to only president and the Vice President positions is too constricting and myopic, in my view.

    It echoes zero-sum instead of multi-sum political outcomes as l had posited in my last media intervention of last Tuesday 6th June 2023 titled: Would The Result of 2023 Election Return Nigeria To Multi-Sum Politics?

    We must demonstrate and convince Nigerians that even if Atiku Abubakar does not choose an lgbo Vice Presidential candidate, it does not amount to an end of the road for the lgbo nation in the political power equation . In like manner, Christians and Muslims must be assured that Bola Tinubu who is not a northerner, but a Muslim and May or May not be picking a northern Christian as running mate or pairing with a Muslim as Vice President. And even if he takes any of those options, it would not do grievous harm to adherents of both faiths as they too would be duly offered other options .

    Without the aforementioned assurances, the already brittle and sensitive religious and ethnic fault lines currently in tenterhooks may snap such that things may go haywire as Christian Association of Nigeria, CAN, leaders have been admonishing the presidential candidates of both the ruling and opposition parties to be sensitive to those sensibilities and sentiments .

    Finally, it is about time that our political leaders started thinking out of the box,as opposed to doing things in the same old fashion ways that have imperiled our beloved country, instead of putting her on the much sought trajectory of growth thereby saving her from stagnation or tipping over.

    Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Lagos

  • Would 2023 elections return Nigeria to multi-sum politics? – By Magnus Onyibe

    Would 2023 elections return Nigeria to multi-sum politics? – By Magnus Onyibe

    It is such a welcome relief that the crowded political space by a deluge of contenders for the office of president of Nigeria is panning out nicely as the main opposition party, PDP had concluded its presidential primaries over a weak ago and the APC is about now rounding up. It is also gratifying that no lives were lost as the PDP exercise was less rancorous than anticipated.

    Commendably, and by all indications, the candidates who failed to win may not end up in court as Atiku Abubakar is adjudged to have won, fair and square towering with 371 which is about 134 votes above his closest rival, Nyesom Wike’s score of 271.

    Unlike what transpired at the state governments level, where state governors more or less unilaterally drew up delegates lists which they changed at the twinkling of an eye to suit their whims and caprices, delegates lists for electing the presidential flag bearer of PDP were transparent and made available to all the presidential candidates in a timely and timeous fashion.

    With the exception of Ebonyi state, where the presidential aspirant from the state, Anyim Pius Anyim raised alarm about not having access to the list of delegates, the PDP convention is generally adjudged to have been organized to the satisfaction of those who chased their dreams to the end.

    While the PDP has crossed what l would like to term the political rubicon by successfully concluding its primaries for its candidates for 2023 general elections from the state house of assembly, House of Representatives, senate gubernatorial to its presidential flag bearer, its rival, APC was still until 6th June trapped in the vortex of internal political Armageddon, for lack of a better nomenclature to characterize the ongoing storming over its choice of a presidential flag bearer.

    After passing through the mandatory screening for integrity and probity which was supposed to hold on the 23rd day of May, but was postponed and later held over the past couple of days, the destiny of the remaining thirteen (13) candidates for the final 23 from the stable of the ruling party at the center, APC, that are now cleared to contest for the office of the president of the federal republic of Nigeria, are hanging in the balance pending when president Muhammadu Buhari discloses his mystery candidate which he pleaded with the powerful APC governors forum during his meeting with them on Tuesday, 31 May to grant him the liberty to recommend — a privilege that he noted the governors have been enjoying by choosing their successors.

    The wait would hopefully end after the convention held this week so that the winning candidates and their parties can start to focus more on how they would solve the mounting obstacles on the path to progress and prosperity for Nigerians.

    Now, three factors have been adduced as the trigger for the unusually large number of contenders for the 2022/33 presidential ticket which was in excess of 40 until the PDP deftly concluded its political recruitment exercise last weekend, thereby initially pruning the unwieldy crowd to APC’s 25, then 23 after two were disqualified and later 13 who will slug it out during their primaries holding 6th and 7th June, after another ten (10) aspirants were dropped by Odigie Oyegun led committee.

    The first reason every Tom, Dick, and Harry exercised their rights to becoming president of Nigeria is the taciturnity of president Muhammadu Buhari, who unprecedentedly announced that he had in mind a candidate that would succeed him. But the identity of whom he has been keeping to his chest, thus throwing APC presidential hopefuls into a frenzy, as most party chieftains who believe they have done president Buhari a favor or two have literally thrown their hats into the ring.

    The second factor is the effect of the electoral reforms embedded in the electoral act 2022 which promises to make elections more transparent such that votes would count going forward hence the avalanche of ‘wannabe’ presidents who are buoyed by the fidelity intrinsic in the new provisions in the electoral statute.

    And the third is the initial prevarications by both the ruling and main opposition parties to dishonor the 1994/5 gentleman agreement for rotation of the presidency between the north and south which has been observed since 1999 when multi-party democracy returned to Nigeria after a long military interregnum.

    The last-minute resolve to keep the faith with the rotation of presidency arrangement by the APC resulting in some northern presidential aspirants dropping their 2023 presidential ambition has further helped to reduce the crowded presidential stage.

    But the rules of the game got switched by the PDP in the middle of the game and in consonance with the presumed changing political dynamics in the country which has rendered the rotation of the presidency in the eyes of the party less critical, compared to rescuing the country from what it termed the ruinous policies of the incumbent government that has polarized our country unprecedentedly and imperiled lives and properties monumentally.

    On the flip side, in the interest of equity and fidelity, eleven (11) of APC governors from the north, have resolved to push for the 2023 presidency to be zoned to the south, and possibly to the Igbos since that is the only ethnic nationality yet to get a short it.

    Although, politicians from the Igbo nation by straight-line calculations, (all things being equal) are supposed to be the zone from which both the ruling and main opposition parties, APC and PDP
    should have sourced their Presidential candidates, (based on the gentleman agreement to rotate the presidency between the three major ethnic groups in the north and south of Nigeria) a plethora of aspirants showed up.

    But the emergence of Igbo candidates on the presidential dais which was somewhat late in happening, and who are, in any case, lightweight, had justified my observation in a previous media Intervention in which l had made a case that there is a dearth of presidential ‘materials’ from Igbo land.

    As such, I made the following recommendation in an article which I wrote and published way back on 21 October 2021 on both traditional and online media platforms titled “Nigerian Presidency 2023: Where Are The Igbo Candidates?”

    The excerpt below encapsulates my thoughts about the Igbo dilemma a year ago.

    “In my view, a partnership with Atiku Abubakar as a pathway to Aso Rock Villa remains the most viable trajectory for an Igbo man/woman to become president of Nigeria in 2027 on the PDP platform.

    That is because, Atiku Abubakar is liberal, broad-minded, business savvy, and has links by marriage to all the three major ethnic groups-Hausa/Fulani, Yoruba, and Igbo in Nigeria. It implies that Atiku Abubakar’s presidency would likely be more inclusive than the nepotistic-a trademark of the current government in power that is fueling the current gale of separatism.”

    I then threw more light on the issue by stating that:

    “The point being made here is that under Atiku Abubakar’s watch as president, separatism would be consigned to the dustbin as inclusiveness becomes a major plank in government policy.

    With inclusiveness becoming a centre point of public policy in Nigeria, secessionist tendencies would die a natural death in the manner that Niger delta militancy ceased after the late president Umaru Yar’adua took strategic steps to stabilize the volatile region via his offer of Amnesty to former militants after meeting some of their demands.”

    I further pointed out that “The existential reality in Nigeria’s current political equation is that the Igbos need help to actualize their quest for the presidency of Nigeria. As Atilla, the Hun advised, “choose your enemies wisely and your friends carefully.”

    And then l offered the following advice. “It should be obvious to the average Igbo that they can not ascend the throne in Aso Rock Villa by themself. And they must accept that their mastery of business can not overnight translate into the political savviness that is required for someone of Igbo extraction to become the number 1 citizen presiding over our country in Aso Rock Villa seat of power from 2023.”

    I could not conclude the referenced piece, without making a recommendation, and offering the following advice which has remained valid: “So an alliance with the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar whose political fortune has been built since the time that he first contested against the late MKO Abiola in Social Democratic Party, SDP primaries held in 1992, remains the most viable political catapult that can propel the Igbo nation into Aso Rock Villa, after Alex Ekwueme’s partnership with Shehu Shagari for the presidency.”

    True to my projections into the future, the Igbos have now been edged out of the presidential contest through superior political brinksmanship in the PDP, and they might have concluded that in the PDP, they are like a stepchild whose future is not so bright in the family he/she finds his/herself.

    The APC may be on the verge of throwing the easterners the much-sought opportunity for one of their own to preside over Nigeria in Aso Rock Villa.

    While they can justifiably be disappointed with the set back in the PDP, they should not give in or give up until their mission for someone from their ethnic stock is accomplished perhaps in 2027 under PDP or by leveraging the APC vehicle to become president in 2023, if the ruling party is fair enough in its ongoing presidential primaries to concede the ticket to the Igbos.

    Again, it needs to be reiterated that in my article published widely in the mass media on May 17, 2022 with the title “Becoming President of Nigeria, 2023 And Its Surprises, l made a strong case for the presidency to return to the south. I took the same stance in my new book with a similar title: Becoming President of Nigeria.

    A Citizen’s Guide where l made a case for an Igbo president in 2023 in four (4) of the twelve (12) chapters of the tome.

    But in light of the fact that presidency is never given on a platter of gold, did the lgbo actually invest enough vigor and political brinksmanship in seeking to become president of Nigeria as the eventual winner of the PDP contest, Atiku Abubakar, Turaki of Adamawa, did? Cognizant of the fact that the lgbo’s brightest chance of realizing its dreams of becoming president of Nigeria in 2023, Peter Obi at the eleventh (11th) hour dramatically dumped the PDP and moved to the Labor Party, LP to pursue his ambition, it is left to readers to figure it out if by Obi’s somewhat erratic action, he did not, perhaps inadvertently shoot the lgbo nation in the foot.

    The fact should also not be lost by observers is that, whereas Aminu Tambuwal collapsed his campaign into Atiku Abubakar’s to boost the former’s fortunes, the southern candidates- Nyesom Wike, Udom Emmanuel and Anyim Pius Anyim, etc did not see any reason to consolidate their votes.

    And l hope our brothers and sisters from the land of the rising Sun will learn to be proactive enough to commence bargaining with the winner of the presidential contest, Atiku Abubakar by aligning with him in the forthcoming general elections in order to secure a strategic role for the lgbo nation as Alex Ekwueme of blessed memory did and became Vice President to former President Shehu Shagari, also of blessed memory from 1979 to 1983.

    As l had argued in previous media interventions, it is not all the time that Fulanis are polarizing figures. As records reveal, Shagari was not by any stretch of the imagination a polarizer. He equitably shared out public offices mindful of federal character principles entrenched in the constitution and rolled out economic infrastructure such as automobile assembly plants and steel rolling mills throughout the country equitably.

    Neither was Umar Yar’adua a divider. He is the president that offered Niger delta militants amnesty and thus restored some peace and stability in the hitherto volatile region.

    So based on past experience, there is every tendency that Atiku Abubakar would not be a polarizer. Instead, he would be a unifier as he was when he served as Vice President, 1999-2007.

    As the initial fear has become a reality that the presidency would not be zoned to the Igbos in line with the concept of Rotation of the office of the president of Nigeria introduced through a gentleman man agreement during the 1994/5 national conference held under general SANNI Abacha as military head of state, since had been killed by the report of Bala Mohamed led committee set up by PDP, which opposed rotation of presidency, the Igbos have been left in the lurch. And it is unsurprising that not a few of their leaders are expressing their indignation by resigning from the PDP ostensibly for the betrayal of their trust.

    Is their reason altruistic and is it not that the aspirants are only just seeing the handwriting on the wall as Orji Kalu and Ken Nnamani had done and as l had foretold in my previous media projections into the future of politics in our beloved country?

    First to show PDP his back is Peter Obi, former two times Anambra state governor, vice presidential candidate to Atiku Abubakar in 2019, an apostle of frugality in governance and internet sensation. Having originally leveraged the APGA platform to win and serve as governor of Anambra state for 8 years, he crossed the carpet to PDP from where he just joined Labor Party, LP.

    While the running mate of Atiku Abubakar for the presidency in 2019 has been saying all the correct things that strike the right notes and sounds like music to the ears of the youths and internet denizens, another contender for the office of the president of NIGERIA on PDP platform, who lost to Abubakar and regarded as ‘infant terrible’ in politics, Nyesom Wike, currently the governor of Rivers state, in a Channels television interview deflated or punctured Obi’s sky-bound balloon in the social media space by drawing attention to the fact that Obi has lost elections in his home state consistently since he left office as governor in 2014 by unsuccessfully sponsoring candidates against his predecessor, Willie Obiano.

    He also did not enjoy the support of eastern states governors when he was picked by Atiku Abubakar as running mate for the 2019 presidential race. That implies that Obi has no significant political substance in Igbo land, as he is a superstar in the online space because his words resonate with youths nationwide who dominate the virtual space. Since the Generation-Z or #Endsars cohorts (as someone has categorized them) are hardly party delegates, so they can not vote on the D-Day, one wonders how Obi could have won the PDP primaries? Even during general elections, the youths hardly turn up to vote, as they do online by posting thumbs-up emojis for Obi. So how would he win the presidency? The reality is that the members of Generation-Z that are bestriding the world of social media are less assets and more liabilities to Peter Obi or any other candidate.

    Unless there is a pathway to mobilizing and motivating them to become active participants in politics, the road to Aso Rock Villa for Peter Obi would just be a mirage. As an aside, l have a piece of advice for those hoping to tap into the potential benefits of youth engagement in active politics. One man who has a blueprint for harnessing the voting power of the youths is Barack Obama- the first black president of the United States of America, USA who keyed into the voting power of the youths in his country to clinch the presidency in 2009 as the 44th president of the USA. And his successful journey into the White House is simply owed to the fact that American youths that cut across races, were unlike their parents who saw Obama from the prism of a black slave, being influenced by the intellectual capacity and organizational ability of the candidate as opposed to assessing him from the prism of the color of his skin as their forbears had been doing.

    In like manner, the youths who are applauding or hero-worshiping Peter Obi mainly in the virtual world are obviously peeved with the past and current political leadership. and therefore yearning for a new beginning. One thing anyone who wants to become president in 2023 needs to do, is plug into the movement and momentum already stirred up amongst our youths by making conscious and concerted efforts to bring Generation- Z out from the virtual world down to planet earth. That is the sure way to tap their latent energy with a view to converting it into a political asset.

    And that task can be achieved by organizing them into a sort of positive tour-de-force via engaging them in physical world activities that would advance their positive involvement in events that would reinforce the virtues of civic responsibilities in them.

    Now, the reason that Obi advanced for quitting PDP is his disinterest in money politics.

    By his own admission, in departing from PDP, he moved from a palace to a hut. Obviously, it is going to cost him huge sums of money to convert the Labor Party, LP hut into a palace that he branded the PDP. From the outcome of the primaries in which ex-Vice President, Atiku Abubakar triumphed, money is good, but goodwill built on a solid political foundation developed over a considerable length of time is better. Hence Nyesom Wike, who has put up a good fight to earn the next highest votes after the winner, made a significant impact that might not have surprised those who subscribe to the school of thought that money works wonders in politics-be it in Nigeria or any clime for that matter.

    Shadowing Obi in his disappointment about the notion that the Igbos have been literally thrown ‘under the bus’, the senate minority leader, Eyinaya Abaribe, another Igbo chieftain has reportedly also exited the PDP. So also has the immediate past deputy senate president, Ike Ekweremadu, dropped his gubernatorial ambition with both of them citing loss of confidence in their erstwhile party which they are accusing of betrayal. Had Peter Obi’s exit from PDP been a movement to APGA, (he prefers to like Nnamdi Azikiwe look beyond Igboland) the predicted loss of the Igbo electorate by the PDP could have been the gain of APGA, the only ethnic-based party that demurred in 2013/14 from blending into the coalition of opposition parties, APC -as a political vehicle to oust then ruling party, PDP.

    Of course, there is also the Young Progressive Party, YPP with senator Ifeanyi Uba as the only elected representative. Just as no independent candidate including Ross Perot was able to win the presidency as an independent in the USA, Obi’s departure from PDP to LP is likely to be disappointing because building up a party from the ground is not a tea party as can be testified to by Olusegun Mimiko, ex Ondo state governor who was once the leader of the party and Dele Momodu, who is a one-time presidential candidate of LP.

    With respect to APC’s delay in organizing its presidential primaries, until June 6-7, which initially suggested that the party had established a pattern of tackiness, shoddiness, and inelegant attitude in political party organization and laxity in public administration reflected by its vacillation on the date that it’s presidential primaries would hold, last minutes activities by the party suggest that it had been doing a lot of work building consensus amongst the key stakeholders.

    By shifting its convention dates from May 29-31 before settling for June 6-7, after INEC was compelled to compromise its timetable to accommodate APC’s foibles, there was a strong likelihood that the party would experience a sort of chasm or meltdown which presumably has been waiting to happen. But as the ruling party at the centre had successfully evaded since its birthing in 2013/14, it appears ready to one more time escape implosion and wax stronger. All of these are owed to intensive negotiations by president Buhari with the party stalwarts in the last week or so.

    Nevertheless, the risk of implosion would be more rife if the man fondly referred to as the Jagaban, a former Lagos state governor, and national leader of the APC, Bola Tinubu with a larger than life image, and who has frankly stated that his lifelong ambition is to rule Nigeria, fails to become APC’s flag bearer after its presidential primaries being held from 6th to 8th of June. If he is not given the presidential baton to run the race, would an alternative platform like Accord Party be resurrected?

    Better still would any other political vehicle be cranked up to drive his presidential ambition as being speculated? Should that happen, it would be evident that the much anticipated political realignments would continue to unfold and the equation would be balanced with Chukwuma Soludo APGA already being strengthened in the South East, Musa Kwakwanso‘s NNPP gaining converts in the Northern part of the country and a Yoruba party of whatever nomenclature being prepped up in the Southwest, should Bola Tinubu fail to clinch the ticket of APC and he opts to leverage another platform to pursue his ambition.

    With the outlined potential outcomes, there is clearly a looming danger that the legacy political parties that formed the ruling party, APC, may end up returning to the status quo ante. By that,l mean returning to their original ethnic and regional formations geared towards specifically and realistically attending to the narrow interests of the multiple ethnic nationalities that make up our country.

    And that would amount to re-enacting the days of yore when the National Party of Nigeria, NPN (1979-1983) in partnership with the GNPP and other smaller parties collaborated (not collapse into one party) to form the central government since it could not win enough votes to give it the mandate to form government at the center on its own. That is a privilege that the PDP had enjoyed from 1999 to 2015 and the APC has been enjoying it from 2015 to date.

    It may be recalled that during that era, unlike now, there was equitable distribution of political offices and infrastructure reflecting the inclusion of all ethnic groups nationwide. Steel rolling mills were equitably set up across the country and so also were automobile plants distributed nationwide and across all the regions based on fairness. As such, there was significant ethnic harmony and little or no religious extremism since policies and programs were conceived and implemented in the best interest of all nationalities, transparently. The presence of peace provided the atmosphere for the growth and development of society until the military coup of December 1983 literally torpedoed the ship of state. In my opinion, the current two-party system is a major bane of politics in our country. The year 2023 could be the year that our country can return to that period of political and religious tranquility that we all so much romanticize owing to a plurality of political parties with each pushing their peculiar regional agendas.

    As already stated, Musa Kwakwanso, a two-time governor of Kano state, ex-minister of defense and senator of the federal republic of Nigeria has opened the floodgate of political parties returning to the status quo ante via the formation of his own ethnic-based political party, New Nigerian Peoples Party, NNPP.

    Another two-time governor of Kano state, Ibrahim Shekarau has joined Kwakwanso in NNPP. Atahiru Jega, former INEC chairman has joined the fray with his entrance into PRP –a foremost northern party. And APGA is attracting Igbo political heavyweights back into its fold, just as YPP May also be a destination for other Igbo politicians.

    That is in addition to Peter Obi’s cross carpeting to the Labor Party that would give the hitherto ailing party a shot in the arm and a new lease of life.

    The stimulus for the return to the basics by some of our political actors is reminiscent of the biblical injunction ‘To your tents o Israel.’

    And it is clear aftermath or manifestation of the stepping down of the rotation of the Presidency Principle that had become a tradition, if not culture and glue holding the multiple ethnic nationalities that constitute our country together in a single party like the PDP, and with potential for playing a similar binding role in the APC.

    What the evolving phenomenon of ethnic-based parties foretells, is that it is unlikely that a single party in the mold of APC or PDP would solely lead Nigeria at the center in 2023.

    That implies that a major party may only win a significant share of the votes but not a majority that is large enough to give it full control. As such it would be compelled to go into alliance with the smaller regional or ethnic parties that would dominate their local environment to form government at the center. And in the event that it turns out that smaller parties like APGA and YPP in the south-east, one or two local parties spring up in the southwest going by whatever name and joins NNPP and PRP in unfurling in the northern region, and they control their local environments such as states and LGAs, they would bargain for strategic positions in the central government in the manner that corporations allocate board seats to stakeholders based on the size of their investments in a firm or corporation.

    That is one way that the hue and cry about the current central government allocating all the strategic Ministries, Departments and Agencies, MDAs to members of the same ethnic and religious background as the president, would be reduced, if not eliminated. That would be the situation when multiple parties in the national partnership negotiate positions that are in the best interest of their regions and zones as they form central government together. It would be a re-enactment of the 1980s when the National Party of Nigeria, NPN relied on a coalition of other parties to form a national government.

    In any case, as l espoused in the book: Becoming President of Nigeria. A Citizen’s Guide, rotation of the presidency between the north and south calculus, has been producing a negative and unsavory outcome of zero-sum politics, instead of a multi-sum outcome. And Atiku Abubakar’s emergence as president may end the nihilistic zero-sum politics if he runs an inclusive government with restructuring as the driver. In pari-pasu, so would picking a southerner who will work towards restructuring the country as the presidential candidate of the APC be an elixir for curing the current toxicity in our polity. The realization of that prospect is imminent as the ruling party at the centre appear to have resolved to pick a southerner as its candidate for president in 2023, during the 6th and 7th June special convention.

    It is easy to forget that rotation of the presidency was a mere stop-gap measure aimed at fixing an existential challenge of mistrust amongst the multiple ethnic nationalities that make up Nigeria, which is that the minority would be marginalized by the majority. But the rotation of the presidency between the north and south took on a life of its own at the expense of the more robust policy proposals that would mitigate the threats to the harmonious co-existence of the multiple ethnic nationalities that constitute Nigeria, enunciated in the Goodluck Jonathan 2014 Confab report and earlier in the SANNI Abacha Confab of 1994/95 which is also a treasure trove of wisdom on how best to administer our beloved country in an inclusive and progressive manner.

    Since the palpable fear of the minority had been sufficiently addressed in the report of both Jonathan and Abacha Confab reports respectively, which without the sudden death of Abacha in 1998 and the defeat of Jonathan as president in 2015, should have been implemented by now, rotation of presidency principle ought to have become moribund at this point in time. But the loophole has been exploited to the detriment of society via zero-sum politics witnessed since the return of multi-party politics in 1999, and especially in the past half a decade via the winner takes it all politics presently in practice. What is zero-sum politics, some may wonder?

    It is the fact that when anyone from each side of the north-south presidency rotation equation takes over the reins of power in Aso Rock Villa, he builds a castle with his Kith and kin positioned in strategic public offices and locates infrastructure in their regions or states of origin to the detriment of other nationalities in the federation. Subsequently, after 8 years, the successor to the presidency throne or the next Aso Rock Villa occupant brings down the edifice constructed by his predecessor that is made up of his tribesmen and women.

    With the metaphorical building up and bringing down every 8 years, Nigeria has failed to make genuine progress since none of the past leaders has built or is building on the foundation already laid by his predecessor which could have had the beneficial outcome of multi sum politics that would engender prosperity and improved standard of living of the masses or hoi polloi. That is instead of benefiting a few elites from both sides of the divide that rise and fall with their benefactors in the political class.

    Fortuitously, there has been an opportunity to remedy the ruinous practices that have been bedeviling our country. And it is evident in two initiatives Independently undertaken by the ruling and main opposition parties, APC and PDP.

    It may be recalled that the APC had set up a committee led by Nasir El Rufai, Kaduna state governor to chart a way forward for the party after its victory in 2015. It recommended devolution of power from the center to the states which would allay the fear of the minorities and also set up state police as a panacea to the frightening level of insecurity in the country. The PDP similarly had after being defeated in 2019 by the ruling party, also set up a committee to envision a future for the party. It was led by Bauchi state governor, Bala Mohammed. And it came up with the recommendations that the party should replace the rotation of president policy with meritocracy and throw the presidency open. If both recommendations by the two committees of the ruling and main opposition parties were adopted and implemented, our country would be a better place as the two proposals uncannily addressed the fundamental causes of the mutual suspicions fueling the current crisis of lack of trust wracking our beloved country and the reason for the push for restructuring which would address the twin demons of insecurity of lives and properties being driven by religious insurgents and separatists.

    Not restructuring the political system as El Rufai’s committee has recommended, is basically the tumor that has become not only cancerous, but has metastasized and therefore threatening to kill Nigeria, and which we must all resolve to kill before, it kills us as individuals and a nation.

    Unlike the PDP which has implemented the recommendations by its committee as evidenced by the suspension of rotation of the presidency, the APC has failed to implement the report of the El-Rufai committee that recommended the devolution of political power from the center to the states which would likely end separatist agitations in the east, west and middle belt zones; and the establishment of state police to address insecurity driven by religious insurgency, especially in the hinterlands of the northern parts of our country. It is a no-brainer that the implementation of both Nasir El Rufai and Bala Mohammed committee reports together would have enabled our country to experience a political reset and rebirth.

    All the maneuvering and nuances by political leaders in the two political parties are contained in my new book: “Becoming President of Nigeria. A Citizen’s Guide.”

    Realistically, and with regards to the Igbo jeopardy in not being able to produce the presidential candidate for the 2023 race to Aso Rock Villa, as they had anticipated,(if Peter Obi miracle does not happen) l had figured out long ago that the pathway to Aso rock Villa for the Igbos would be rocky.

    I have also in several analyses projecting into the future, enjoined the Igbos to get into an alliance or pact with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to have a member of Igbo stock as running mate for the 2023 presidency, but they have been adamant until the reality hit them like a thunderbolt that the PDP would not give a member of their stock the ticket.

    Well, l hope that since former Vice President Abubakar has once again clinched the PDP presidential ticket 2023, as l had projected about a year ago, they can now see the wisdom in my timely advice which was unheeded. As a people adept in business, the Igbos can spot business opportunities a world away. But they failed to get the drift about their political future which l had painted based on trend analysis. What would it have taken to spur the Igbos into action when l prompted them about a year ago?

    Although, the apparent Igbo inflexibility or poor reflex in political affairs could cost them number the two slot in the pecking order in the Aso Rock Villa hierarchy if they don’t make haste, rather than throw their arms up in the air lamenting, it may not be too late to align with the Turaki of Adamawa and PDP in their March to occupy Aso Rock Villa from May 29, 2023.

    As l will always counsel my Igbo brothers and sisters, in a highly fluid political environment into which our country can be categorized, there are many ways for someone of Igbo origin to become president of Nigeria without necessarily relying on a set piece of rotation of presidency or other power-sharing formula if the two major political parties ignore them. For instance, the Igbos can choose not to be like a football team that relies only on a penalty shoot-out in a football game to win the match whereas they can dribble and take a shot at the goal any time the opportunity arises. The above analogy is what waiting for the pendulum of the presidency to swing to them based on a tenuous gentleman agreement, entails in my view. They should try dribbling rather than waiting to be dribbled.

    And the door to Aso Rock Villa’s number 1 seat may still be open to the Igbos, as, unlike the PDP, the APC has not closed it until it draws the curtain on its delegates convention.

     

    Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Lagos

  • Rising And Falling Of Delta State Political Family And Consequences – By Magnus Onyibe

    Rising And Falling Of Delta State Political Family And Consequences – By Magnus Onyibe

    An internecine war of anarchic proportions has ensued in Delta state. And the state that has been governed by the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP since the return of multi-party democracy in 1999 is in turmoil. In fact, it is on the verge of tipping over and into the grasp of the opposition party, All Progressive Congress, APC, if the war persists.

    That is because the incumbent state Governor, Ifeanyi Okowa’s preferred candidate, Sherriff Oborovwori who is currently the speaker of the house of assembly has literarily mauled his opponents in the gubernatorial primaries contest held on Wednesday, May 25, 2022. He clinched the victory by polling a whopping 590 votes of the 825 delegates.

    That means that only about 265 delegates voted for the rest of the contenders for the office of the governor of delta state in 2023. In some states like Akwa Ibom, Rivers, Cross Rivers, etc the governors ‘anointed’ candidates scored landslide victory, leaving the opponents winning votes that can be counted on the fingers of a single hand or at best two hands .

    So compared with the results of the party primaries in the aforementioned jurisdictions, prying out votes in excess of 200 from the grasp of the anointed candidate in delta state can actually be considered a feat. Drawing from the wisdom in an adage that is popular amongst my tribesmen, which is that it is the person that has the knife and the yam that is at liberty to decide the portion of yam that he/she shares out to others, the party delegates elections for producing the candidates for 2023 general elections were bound to go the way they have turned out.

    And it is doubtless that transparency in how delegates list is drawn up by the governor of a state without enough involvement of other stakeholders and not within a set of rules which are immutable, is amongst the grey areas that future reviews of the electoral laws of our country should focus attention in order to improve on the process of recruitment of political leaders at the grassroots level.

    Relying on the aphorism, if the foundation of a building is weak, the integrity of the structure would be in jeopardy, a grossly undemocratic practice of democracy at the sub-national level as evidenced by the manipulation of state electoral agencies by the governors and the production of party delegates list whimsically, instead of being based on established and strictly observed parameters, (as is largely the case with INEC) is tantamount to attempting to build a house on sinking or quick sand. And such incongruity as reflected by the flawed system at the grassroots level needs to be urgently addressed, altruistically. The assertion and observation above is justified or derives from the fact that those who may be benefiting from the abnormalities today, would ultimately be the victims tomorrow.

    Since a system standing on a foundation of clay, instead of solid rock of democracy, would not withstand a stress test, the structure would soon after its erection go with the winds.

    Arising from the above scenario , a situation whereby the party delegates list is drawn up at the behest of the sitting governor is antithetical to democracy. That is simply because, equity and fairness would be presumed to have been trifled with by the state governor, who as the leader of the party in the state, would ensure that the names that make it into the delegates list are those that are malleable by him .

    Against the backdrop of the circumstances highlighted above, it is unsurprising that the closest rival to the winner of the PDP primaries in Delta state, David Edevbie, garnered a mere 113 votes compared to the 590 number of votes polled by the winner, the speaker of the house of assembly, Sherriff Oborovwori ,who is the governors preferred candidate. Rather than lament, the man who polled the second highest votes in the contest has been stoic as if he has acquiesced with the loss by hinging it on the common philosophy: win some, lose some.

    That is the attitude of Edevbie, a former commissioner for finance from 1999 to 2006 under chief James lbori as governor, and later, commissioner of finance in 2015-2019, that also served as chief of staff to the incumbent governor, Okowa, until a few months ago.

    Another ranking member of the class of 1999, who was commissioner for works 1999-2003, under lbori’s watch as governor, senator James Manager, received a paltry 83 votes to take the third position in the race. He too has taken the loss like a sportsman.

    That is in spite of the fact that he is the pioneer chairman of the ruling party, PDP at its inception in 1999.
    The rest of the contestants, particularly, the incumbent deputy governor, Kingsley Otuaro, and the immediate past commissioner for Works, Peter Mkrapor, tied with 9 votes apiece.

    When the total votes cast for the other contestants against the speaker, Oborovwori are combined, it is a little more than 200 votes. As such, the votes drawn for the winner by and large are more or less a tripling of the combined votes cast for other contenders.

    Such is the power of incumbency that enables the governor under whose watch the election is held to exclusively draw up the delegates list with minimum input by other stakeholders which is to be relied upon by all the contestants, including the favored and disfavored. It is worthy to state that the outcomes of the primaries conducted in the various states where the candidates chosen by the governors won the contest are similar to how state electoral commissions always ‘deliver’ the candidates of the ruling party in the Local Government Chairman and counselor elections.

    That is simply because, since it is the governors that appoint the state electoral commission members, they are often obliged to do the governor’s bidding. Which is in consonance with the dictum, “he who pays the piper, dictates the tune.”

    That anomaly or perfidy, if we must call a spade by its name, is the bane of democracy at the grassroots level which is reflected by the trend whereby the two major parties, APC and PDP enjoy predominance of their members as local government chairmen and councilors courtesy of their ‘dutiful’ electoral agencies . Thus, there is hardly any APC or PDP led state without all the LGA chairmen and councilors being members of the state’s ruling party.

    As a democracy advocate, it would remiss of me not to point out that , no matter whose ox is gored that such an anti-democracy practice is deplorable and needs to be condemned, and replaced with a more transparent process that is guided by and under-guarded with democracy ethos. This is the way to improve the fidelity of the process of recruitment of politicians at the grassroots level and the concomitant deepening of our democracy at the subnational and national levels.

    Imagine what would have become of our democracy at the national level, if the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC were to be at the beck and call of the president of Nigeria as state electoral commissions are made to function like departments in the office of state governors? Autocracy or monarchy, rather than democracy would have been entrenched in Nigeria and that could have been akin to what obtains in Russia or at best, the nation of Morocco , Syria or Turkey.
    It is curious that INEC had hitherto exhibited some modicum of independence, until the recent decision to shift its timetable for the elections which critics allege was done to serve the narrow interest of the ruling party, APC.

    Before the delegates’ election contest in delta state, governor Okowa had not hidden his preference for the current speaker of the state house of assembly, Sherrif Oborefovwori to take over the reins of government from him, as opposed to Edevbie, who is the candidate favored by Urhobo Progressive Union, UPU, a socio-cultural group of the largest ethnic stock in Delta state.

    Off course, it is within the ambit of the governor to have a choice of successor and on whom he has anchored his support. After all, President Mohammadu Buhari had stated in a television interview that he has a preferred candidate that he would like to succeed him as he exits Aso Rock Villa next year. Indeed, decoding who that candidate really is has been as tasking as untying the proverbial Gordian knot by APC members keen on stepping into Buhari’s shoes next year and indeed the entire country that is currently waiting to hear from president Buhari about who the mystery candidate truly is. That is even as the APC delegates congress that should have been wrapped up on May 30, has been postponed for the umpteenth time while waiting for mr president’s weighty utterance on the matter.

    But ordinarily, the president does not have as much latitude as a state governor has to literally produce a candidate by fiat or via manipulation of the delegates list.

    The underlying reason for his limitation is the fact that the national delegates list for the election of a presidential candidate comes from all 36 states and 774 local councils nationwide. In light of the fact that stakeholders in the states and regions may have their own peculiar agendas to pursue , it is more daunting for a president to impose his candidate in a direct or an indirect election exercise .

    Except via a consensus process , that is if the president is charismatic and venerated by his party men and women, perhaps like president Buhari.

    A major stakeholder in the Delta state governorship election is chief James Ibori, who is the pioneer governor of the state following the return of multi-party democracy 1999-2007 and therefore the political father of all the aspirants to most of the political leadership positions.

    He also supported David Edevbie.His backing of Edevbie is derived from the fact that he was the erstwhile commissioner for finance under his watch,so he is considered an integral part of the state’s political class of 1999, also known as the Ibori political family.

    After all had been said and done, (with the backing of the incumbent governor) the other contestants were practically turned into spectators in the event as the counting of the votes was going on with the winner’s name mimicking a sing-sing and sounding like music to the ears of his supporters as the announcer kept repeating Oborovwori Francis as he picked up the ballots 590 times until he finally announced Sheriff Oborovwori, as the winner of the party primaries.

    It is clearly a manifestation of the raw power of incumbency which made it possible for the governor’s will to prevail forcefully. And the outcome is doubtless a disruption of the governorship succession model in delta state which had more or less become entrenched since 1999.

    As a microcosm of Nigeria, Delta state had started manifesting what l would like to refer to as governorship rotation malady in the manner that Nigeria is under the throes of presidency rotation malaise that has seen the main opposition party, PDP, jettisoning presidency rotation arrangement which it had practiced since the return of multi-party democracy in 1999.

    As if echoing the challenges dogging the continuity of the rotation of the presidency between the north and south in the central government , the governorship rotation initiative between the three senatorial zones introduced by chief Ibori before exiting office of the governor after his eight (8) years tenure expired in 2007, is being threatened.
    And it is unsurprising that it took a considerable amount of bickering and arm twisting before the incumbent government decided to honor the agreement to allow the governorship pendulum to swing back to delta central which is the base from where the rotation started in 1999.

    It may be recalled that Ibori institutionalized the process in the state as he was exiting in 2007.

    Typical of political actors, spanners are often metaphorical thrown into the wheel of progress. But after all the horse-trading are done , the system had been sustained, albeit at a huge political cost to Ibori whom his Urhobo kith and kin are not happy with for not allowing them to enjoy the benefit intrinsic in the fact that they are the majority ethnic group in the state, and the majority in a democracy always carries the vote. That is assuming all Urhobos decide to vote based on the influence of ethnic sentiments.

    It is by sheer grit that after him, and to the consternation of Urhobo and Ijaw nations, governor Emmanuel Uduaghan, then Secretary of the state Government, SSG, under Ibori, an Itsekiri by tribe which is part of delta south senatorial zone, mounted the saddle and led for eight years.

    Subsequently, in 2015, Ifeanyi Okowa, also a former SSG under Uduaghan’s watch and a senator, who hail lka ethnic nation of the north senatorial zone, took over the reins of governance, where he has been holding sway for the past seven (7) years.

    As is common in politics, the transitions of the governorship position from one zone to the other since 2007 have not been rancor free. But whatever schisms ensued during the change of batons, a degeneration of the crisis was never allowed to persist. Hence ‘the big heart state’ has been fittingly tagged with the ‘one big political family’ appellation since 1999 before what l prefer to term the Big Bang that happened on the 25th of May.

    That was the state of affairs until the recently concluded 2023 party primary elections for the PDP which commenced with the state house of assembly, followed by the House of Representatives and Senate before culminating in the governorship primaries where the incumbent governor had a divergent view on who becomes the next governor in 2023 with other stakeholders such as ex-governor Ibori and Urhobo Progressive Union, UPU that supported a candidate that is not the governor’s choice.

    As governor Okowa has leveraged the power of incumbency to supplant the so-called Ibori political family after over 21 years run with his own surrogate, Oborovwori, (which suggests the birth of his own political family) can it be said that things have fallen apart in Delta political family? And can the PDP that has led the state since 1999 be able to sustain its hold by producing the next governor in 2023 with a divided house?

    That is the question that those making a song and dance of the growing internecine war within the PDP family in Delta state, (who perhaps owing to how it is being celebrated appear to have awarded governor Okowa victory) must answer.
    That attitude in my view is tantamount to a gambler counting his money while still at the gambling table.
    Suffice it to say that the point that those gloating about the split in the PDP family seem to be missing, is that it is merely the battle that has been fought , lost and won ,while the real war is still ahead.

    And the danger ahead of us is that the PDP may not win the war, as no military general, worth the rank, goes into a war on a limb. That is what it would amount to if the crisis within the PDP family is allowed to fester.
    Another existential reality which the PDP family members need to brace up to , is that without a Ibori’s magnanimity in driving the rotation of governorship initiative between the three zones, the Urhobos being the majority tribe and in consonance with democracy grand norm ‘majority carries the vote’ would be producing the governor of the state in perpetuity as is currently the case in multiple states across the country. Such a political environment is usually prone to being afflicted with ethnic conflicts which was wracking the state at the point that chief lbori , assumed its leadership.

    This media intervention is a note of caution to those whose gaze are laser-focused on now, while discountenancing the likely consequences of today’s actions and inactions tomorrow, thereby imperiling the future of politics of equity, fairness and justice that had become endemic in Delta state.

     

    Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Lagos

  • Delta State Next Governor, Commitments And Betrayals – By Magnus Onyibe

    Delta State Next Governor, Commitments And Betrayals – By Magnus Onyibe

    As politicians ramp up activities towards the materialization of the yielding of political power to a new crop of leaders through a toss up of the baton currently being held by APC as the ruling party at the centre, adherence to commitments made by political actors and betrayals of the trust arising from the promises made at the commencement of the political season presently in its twilight zone are the highest trending events fouling the political atmosphere.

    Whereas the scenario described above is a national malaise, it is particularly so and more pronounced in delta state which by its very nature, is a microcosm of Nigeria. The tagging of the state as mini Nigeria is derived from the fact that delta state is comprised of a multiplicity of ethnic groups in the manner that our country is peopled by over 250 tribes and tongues.

    Unlike the situation at the national level where presidency rotation agreement between the north and south introduced and implemented since 1999 is on the verge of being jettisoned,rotation of governorship position between the three senatorial districts of central , south and north of delta state has remained sacrosanct.

    But there is a snag. And it is that the standing political agreement introduced by the 1999 political class ,(also known as lbori political family) lead by chief James Onanefe lbori , governor of the state , (1999-2007) is beset with what l would like to term political chicanery.

    I will dwell more on that unfortunate situation shortly. But in the interim, it is apropos that l apprise readers of the back story behind the rotation of governorship position between the three political zones of delta state.

    Even when majority carries the vote is the mantra and indeed the fulcrum of democracy , chief lbori as the pioneer governor of the state when multi party democracy returned to our country in 1999, undoubtedly demonstrated a true spirit of statesmanship by adopting the concept of rotation of governorship power between the three senatorial zones in the state.

    Ideally , the Urhobos who are the largest ethnic group in the state could have continued to produce the governor in perpetuity by leveraging its dominant population size.

    But it is the lbori driven concept of plurality of political power characterized by a sort of revolving door leadership style that has facilitated the governorship of the state between and around the three zones that has neutralized the tension that perhaps might have escalated into ethnic conflicts that could have degenerated into severe crises as witnessed in other states.

    Allowing discontentment amongst members of the marginalized zones to fester in a state that is already a tinderbox of sorts could have had disastrous consequences.

    Therefore, the initiative of rotating the governorship position in a power sharing equation promoted by Ibori in 1999 that has been sustained till date, is quite noble.

    It is useful pointing out that a situation whereby the majority tribe is dominating in governance by always producing the governor of the state persists in River state. And it is reflected in the political arrangement whereby the so called ‘Upland People‘ have been monopolizing the governorship to the consternation of the ‘Riverine People’ does not augur well for harmonious co-existence. Hence, the Riverine people of the state have been vociferous in their denunciation of the prevailing jeopardy that they have been contending with. Now, the unsavory challenge in Rivers state could have been replicated in Delta state.

    But thanks to lbori, such a tension point has been absent since 1999 in the state.

    The Rivers state experience is not different from the atmosphere in Benue state where the Tiv ethnic group which is the majority tribe has been the source of the governor of the state since 1999 till date. The ldoma ethnic group that is the second largest in Benue state, has only been allowed the opportunity of having their son take the number two position as deputy governor. And they have been doing so grudgingly.

    The governorship circumstances outlined above are the political environment that abound in other states nationwide.

    It is worth recalling that the governorship pendulum started swinging from delta central with chief James lbori as governor to delta south in 2007 with Dr Emmanuel Uduaghan becoming governor. Incidentally , there was contention for the governorship position by senator James manager, the pioneer chairman of the party in 1999 who is of ijaw ethnic stock and which together with itsekiris and lsokos , make up delta south senatorial zone. But following a dexterous management of the situation by chief lbori via political horse trading, a damning schism was averted.

    In like manner , in 2015, another conflict ensued between governor Uduaghan and then commissioner for health , lfeanyi Okowa when the governorship mantle was due to be shifted from the south to north.

    Again, governor lbori intervened and along with other stake holders ensured that the throne was mounted by the incumbent governor, senator Ifeanyi Okowa. As the governorship rotation is coming to a full circle, having started from central , been anchored in the south and north zones and now about to return to where rotation commenced, the contest for the governorship of the state has been tossed up once again.

    Going by the construct of the rotation calculus ,the candidate that would be supported to emerge from delta central zone that the governorship pendulum is about to swing, is usually known ahead of time,based on prior understanding by the leadership of the party.

    Thus, Dr Emmanuel Uduaghan who took over from chief lbori was known ahead of time , even though other aspirants like senator James manager made a bid for it and then chief Ifeanyi Okowa , another stake holder also contested against him.

    A similar situation arose in 2015 when Dr Uduaghan who was via a similar pre arrangement supposed to pass the baton to the next governor from the zone whose turn it is to produce the next governor. He initially demurred, leading to a major spat of which lbori political forces prevailed and Okowa mounted the throne.

    As is typical of political games , the nasty battle that had ensured involved several stake holders including olorogun David Edevbie, pioneer member of the class of 1999 (lbori political family) and ex commissioner for finance 1999-2006, as well as ex principal private secretary to ex president Umaru Yar’adua of blessed memory, who contested for the office of governor against the incumbent.

    In the manner that Uduaghan and Okowa Slugged it out in 2007 and the latter , Okowa became the secretary to state government (2007 2011) even as the , former, Uduaghan assumed the governorship position , Edevbie has also served as commissioner for finance and later as chief of staff under governor Okowa’s watch.

    Following that established pattern of governorship position succession ,which is based on gentleman agreement, Edevbie is supposed to be the candidate with the backing of the political class of 1999, of which all the three governors, lbori (1999-2007) Uduaghan (2007-2015) and Okowa (2015 till date belong and which governor Okowa has recently referred to as a lbori political family.

    As things currently stand, something is fundamentally amiss within the 1999 political class, because the governorship calculus has gone askew. And in Delta state political space hitherto known for its political tranquility and a national role model for its equitable power sharing matrix, there is a sort of bedlam which has been escalated by the cacophony of voices that are conjuring the biblical narrative of Tower of Babel.

    With the governorship succession structure unhinged in delta state, which is the reality that we all must accept in this 11th hour , would the continued dominance of political leadership in the state since 1999 by the PDP not be in jeopardy as the motley crowd of contenders and their backers fight dirty?

    The incumbent governor of delta state, that prides itself as ‘The Big Heart’ senator lfeanyi Okowa has, in trying to allay the palpable fears of party stakeholders and faithfuls, declared that there is no crisis in lbori political family. Given the commitments in 2015 and betrayals of trust currently polluting the political atmosphere, can the governors assurances be worthy of its weight or taken with a pinch of salt?

    Another nagging question is: if indeed the ongoing shenanigans are part of playing politics as governor Okowa had assured party faithfuls, (who have been in quandary as to what is really going on) is it not politricks that has been dubiously unfurled? One more question that deserve to be answered urgently is: after the horse trading that have actually taken a massive toll, having degenerated into a political blood letting exercise with consequential casualties , would PDP still be robust and sturdy enough to sustain its control of political leadership in delta state?

    Those are the critical questions that delegates must ponder as they prepare to cast their votes for the best man for the job of next governor of Delta state in 2023 of which the profile of David Edevbie fits perfectly.

    And he is not being smug about it hence he is working assiduously to earn the votes of delegates.

     

    Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.

    To continue with this conversation, please visit www.magnum.ng

  • Becoming President of Nigeria in 2023, and its surprises – By Magnus Onyibe

    Becoming President of Nigeria in 2023, and its surprises – By Magnus Onyibe

    As a development strategist, I like to indulge in scenario building. And against the current run of play in the highly fluid Nigerian political atmosphere awash with candidates in excess of 40 aiming at becoming president of Nigeria in 2023, the surprise scenario that l have imagined is:

    Atiku Abubakar or Bukola Saraki paring with an Igbo man as a vice-presidential candidate. Let us say someone like Anyim Pius Anyim, ex senate president and secretary to the government of the federation or Peter Obi, ex-governor of Anambra state and even Nyesom Wike as well as Udom Emmanuel of Rivers and Akwa Ibom States respectively.

    That is with respect to the PDP stable.

    From the APC flank, Godwin Emefiele, (current Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN governor) or Rotimi Amaechi, minister of transport can turn out to be the running mate to a presidential candidate from the north who would be a dark horse. Gauging the mood of the APC leadership,particularly the body language of its Chairman, Abdulahi Adamu and National Assembly members, senator Ahmad Lawan, the current senate president readily comes to mind as the likely person that would emerge as a wild card after the hurly-burly expected during the much-anticipated party primaries scheduled for this month end is over.

    Before, anyone makes the decision to start ‘beating up on me’ literarily, let us keep in mind that, it is not me, but the leaders of both the main opposition political party, PDP, lyorcha Ayu (in concert with the 37 wisemen) and APC’s Abdulahi Adamu, who irrespective of the mood of the nation which originally is to give the Igbos a chance to be president of Nigeria, that decided to throw the 2023 presidential contest open to both northern and southern aspirants.

    Intriguingly, the dramatic swing from the dominant sentiments of conceding the presidency in 2023 to the Igbos, to the current mood of throwing it open to all nationalities, actually happened only in the past couple of weeks.

    And the sea change validates, the observation by Harold Wilson, a former prime minister of the United Kingdom, UK, that one week is a long time in politics.

    Although baffling, there are several conspiracy theories for the impending paradigm shift from the presidency rotating from the north to the south to throwing it open. And the most prominent is that if the main opposition party, PDP presents a northern candidate as it is likely to do, the ruling party, APC would be doomed not to win the presidential contest, if it does not also present a northern candidate.

    That narrative is simply predicated on the prevailing notion that the average northern voter (the biggest voting block) would always vote for a northerner against any southern candidate presented, irrespective of the political platform . And it simply confirms the concept of a monolithic northern Nigeria. Assuming that is truly the case, then it validates the belief that there still exists a voting bias of northerners for only northern candidates, no matter the party that the candidate is flying their flag . And the import of that is that after over six (6) decades of independence from colonial rule and more than a millennium post amalgamation of southern and northern protectorates of the British empire, disunity persists like the sword of Damocles hanging over Nigeria and disharmony has remained like an albatross.

    That is in spite of the mantra of one time Nigerian ruling party, National Party of Nigerians, NPN “one nation, one destiny” and a stanza in the old national anthem “though tribe and tongue may differ, in unity we stand.” lt is appalling that both referenced ideals have remained a mirage.

    And equally disturbing is that our beloved country has rather than improve on its multi-ethnic relationships for harmonious co-existence of the estimated 250 tribes and tongues that make up the union,the situation has calamitously degenerated with ethnic and religious divide expanding from a mere crack about a decade ago, into a huge gulf. This is evidenced by the voting patterns in the north fueling the decision to jettison rotation of presidency principle for emphasis on how best to position the party to win elections.

    And the abysmally low level of education in the north particularly amongst the female that is worsened by the current religious Insurgency which has seen about 18 million Nigerian school children (mainly in the north) out of school, according to a survey conducted by UNICEF, is a culprit for the anomaly of northern voters casting their votes only for a presidential candidate of northern origin.
    The conventional wisdom, “educate a woman , educate a nation…” rings true here.
    It is trite to state that the low level of Western education of the masses in the north is largely responsible for the herd mentality or lack of voting independence of our northern brothers/sisters, who only vote for northern candidates and which is the reason being advanced as justification for both the APC and PDP intention to feature northerners as their presidential candidates. And without taking into cognizance the feelings of other ethnic nationalities that make up Nigeria, a highly destructive crisis of monumental proportions could be in the horizon. That is simply because some of our conscienceless politicians seem about to move our beloved country from frying pan to fire by jettisoning rotation of presidency principle which is a lesser evil.

    By now it should be clear to all that not narrowing the 2023 Presidential contest to a political zone, (particularly the south) as has been the practice in the past , and in tune with the spirit and letter of rotation of presidency principle, (practiced since the return of multi-party democracy in 1999) is the culprit for the present mad rush by every Tom, Dick and Harry to join the presidential race.

    Were the presidency to have been zoned to the south and perhaps to Igbos in particular, as had been envisaged and anticipated, the fleet of swans from the northern axis of our country currently strutting the presidential runway, would have at this stage been like spectators waiting in the wings to impress whoever emerges from the south as Presidential candidates of the two main parties with a view to becoming their running mates as was the case for the Yorubas in 1999 when Olusegun Obasanjo emerged as president and for the Hausa/Fulani in 2019 with president Buhari being re-elected.
    In compliance or in tandem
    with the rotation calculus , the north and south east in 1999 stood down their interest in the presidency and allowed Olusegun Obasanjo and Olu Falae to become the exclusive presidential candidates of the two main political parties.
    And a similar gesture was extended to our northern brothers and sisters in 2019 when both the APC and PDP presidential candidates were president Mohammadu Buhari and ex Vice President,Atiku Abubakar.
    Contrarily,in the run up to 2023 general elections , the door into Aso Rock Villa that could have been opened exclusively for the lgbos, has been left ajar to welcome any and all that care to throw their hats into the ring.

    Hence, rather than being a contest exclusive to the lgbos , at best , and the south ,at least,the presidential election in 2023 is currently a national binge.

    With aspirants numbering over 40, and the primaries scheduled to hold this month end, the contest for the presidency in 2023 is practically on the wire.
    And it seems to me that the motivating factor for the motley crowd can be captured in a popular colloquial parlance ‘monkey see, monkey do’ ; agam ni ibe aga’ in Igbo dialect and ‘mo gbo, mo ya’ in Yoruba dialect as well as ‘Yen abi yerima a sha kida’ with a similar meaning in Hausa dialect.

    Aside from the WaZoBia elements in the jostle for the presidency, not even the hefty expression of interest and nomination fees of a hundred (N100) million naira demanded by the ruling party, APC, or the N40m for the main opposition party, PDP has discouraged or deterred monied politicians and deep-pocketed businesses men and women alike from joining in the jamboree of which becoming president of Nigeria in 2023 has descended .

    It also has not helped that president Mohammadu Buhari in a recent television interview stated that he was keeping to his heart, the preferred candidate that he would like to hand over the keys to Aso Rock Villa, as the next occupant.

    What that presidential pronouncement has done, is throw the whole gamut of political actors and even nonpoliticians into a frenzy.

    Hence it is not surprising to me that becoming president of Nigeria in 2023, has assumed the dimension of a bazaar whereby Nigerians of all characters- including those challenged intellectually, morally and integrity wise are now staking their claim to becoming the next president of Nigeria which has practically debased the exalted office of president of Nigeria.

    One can bet that more than ever, most of the politicians and indeed most Nigerians with deep pockets who covet political power must be consulting prophets and marabouts who would be telling them that they are the anointed candidate that president Buhari was alluding to in the most recent ,rare and now famous television interview.

    So, in this period of rising irrationality being exhibited by the demagogues, even as our president is keeping to his chest, who becomes president of Nigeria in 2023 like a JOKER in a game of cards, some governors are also attributing their choice of a successor to God, which is somehow blasphemous.

    In light of the above, it is not unexpected that all shades of characters would show up to participate in what can best be described as the epic auctioning of the Nigerian presidency to the highest bidder.

    Auctioning, not just in terms of money, but also in the sense of the ability, capacity, and who is better positioned to win the presidency between candidates from the two major political parties and with ethnic origins from the north or south as the major deciding factors, not equity and fairness that were previously the drivers of the rotation of presidency calculus. It is incredible how the rotation agreement that has hitherto balanced the precarious multi ethnic composition of our country is being stepped down, while prioritizing the ability and capacity to win the presidency in 2023. My fear is that the road to nationhood which has been topsy turvy over 62 years after independence may become more turbulent, if our leaders take the short term view pf neglecting the long term of power rotation that has so far been an efficacious panacea to the existential fear of disharmony.
    Although rotation of presidency is an imperfect solution provided by our forbears, by now ,we are supposed to have improved upon it by restructuring our political system via devolution of power from the center to the states and creation of state police to tackle insecurity.

    Remarkably, the PDP and APC which have been playing alternating roles as ruling and main opposition parties in the leadership of our great country since 1999 till date, appear ready to engage in a another tug of war to outwit each other for the hearts and souls of Nigerians, hence two northerners may be fielded to become president of Nigeria in 2023.

    The observation above is derived from the fact that both parties have been equivocating and prevaricating about the zoning of the presidency or throwing it open, and a process that has made becoming president of Nigeria in 2023, a very risky gamble as never witnessed before.

    It is striking that,not until President Muhammadu Buhari last Wednesday 11 May held a valedictory session for ten (10) of the 28 members of his cabinet and party who had initially signified interest in becoming president of Nigeria, did a few of them chicken out of the race before the Monday 16 May deadline expired.

    Hopefully, before the May 23, exercise of screening the candidates, preceding the May 30-31 and June 1 scheduled for the conduct of the primaries for the ruling party, APC, and the May 28-29 date for the PDP primaries, many more would have chickened out.

    The pulling out from the race by some of the presidential candidates when the threat of retaining their current jobs became the opportunity cost, simply indicates that most of those who had thrown their hats into the ring for the presidential contest, for lack of a better term, are as Americans would say, ‘wannabe’.

    It also implies that most of those that pretended to be intending to become the first citizen of our country actually had no plans to really become president of Nigeria.

    But they only jumped into the fray due to the band wagon effect engendered by the fact that it is not zoned and the expectations of miracles to happen such that they may be the president Buhari anointed candidate . It is also significant to note that they may also be aiming to settle for some consolatory prizes like ministerial appointments or chairmanship positions on lucrative boards of corporations belonging to government.

    That is coupled with the fact of being in the exclusive club of those who doled out N100m and N40m for the acquisition of both APC and PDP, could also enable the so-called presidential aspirants have national name recognition to position them for future presidential contests and even the opportunity of strategic positioning as future gubernatorial candidates.

    By and large ,most of the presidential aspirants were only engaged in what can best be described as a ‘joy ride’.

    The chaotic situation particularly applies to the politicians from the ruling party at the center, APC whose members angling to replace President Muhammadu Buhari as the commander in chief of the armed forces of Nigeria and the prime occupant of Aso Rock Villa, (the seat of presidential power) in 2023, have presently been pruned to less than 25 in number.

    The assertion above is validated by the fact that labour minister, Chris Ngige, for instance, apparently had no plans to really contest for the exalted office. But he only joined the bonanza for the fun of it. Hence he withdrew his candidacy after president Buhari issued an ultimatum for public officials keen on contesting for public office to resign, latest on Monday, May 16.

    Before him, senator Orji Uzor Kalu who is the Senate minority whip and governor Bala Mohammed of Bauchi state had also dropped out of the presidential race. Paulin Tallen, Minister of women affairs has also rescinded her decision to quit the cabinet in order to contest for a senatorial seat in plateau state , just as petroleum minister Timipre Silva is also said to have shelved his initial plan to seek election into the office of the president of Nigeria.

    In the list of those that have stepped down their ambition both as governorship and presidential contenders are also attorney general, and minister of justice,Abubakar Malami, who was gunning for the governorship of Kebbi state, as well as Godwin Ifeanyi Emefiele, (Governor of the CBN) who was rumored to have been angling to become president of Nigeria.

    But Emefiele was sending mixed messages by pussy footing until the recent revelation that he did not fill out or return the expression of interest and nomination forms purportedly procured for him by farmers who are enamored by his interventions in the agricultural sector, especially rice farmers who aver that their lives have been impacted positively by Emefiele.

    Meanwhile, were the CBN governor, Emefiele to have pursued his rumored ambition to its logical conclusion, he would have been mirroring or mimicking Mario Dragi, the current prime minister of Italy who had previously served as president of the European Central Bank.

    In any case, dropping out of critical political races is not peculiar to Nigeria. It may be recalled that in the UK, Chuka Umunna, a Nigerian born parliamentarian had opted out of the race of being the leader of the labor party when the lot had more or less fallen on his lap, following Labour Party’s defeat in a critical UK election and the resignation of Ed Miliband as leader. Umunna was identified as one of the potential candidates to take over as new leader of the party.

    But he demurred in the 11th hour, citing family issues.

    Beyond extraordinary political circumstances for withdrawing interest in political contests, there is another angle to the apparent all-comers affairs that the 2023 presidential contest has become .

    And it is that the latter-day ‘wannabe’ presidential aspirants are spoilers, pure and simple. That point of view is predicated on the belief that those that fall into that category are the crop of aspirants that are just craving the title: ex-presidential candidate.

    Indeed , their real desire is the prefix to be attached to their names like the traditional title of a chief or an academic with a doctoral degree or a medical doctor. In other words, they are only interested in the title of ‘ex-presidential candidate’ for the sake of it.

    So , if it takes N100m to obtain, or more appropriately procure the title, (in the case of those aspiring under the APC platform) so be it. Likewise for the presidential aspirants (leveraging the PDP forum) who are doling out N40m for nomination and expression of interest forms.

    After all, as we are well aware, some Nigerians spend similar huge sums of money acquiring chieftaincy titles.
    So what the heck!

    It should also not be lost on us that for the academically inclined, the school fees for a Doctor of Philosophy, Ph.D. degree from an Ivy League university such as Harvard is about one hundred thousand ($100,000) dollars.

    Convert the dollar value to figure out the equivalent in our local currency-the naira,exchanging at about $1-N600=N60m and you can see why N40m or N100m cost of expression of interest and nomination forms are not such a big deal.

    It is worthy to note that, whereas the politicians that desire the ex-presidential candidate title would get it by merely paying N100m or N40m as the case may be, the academically inclined, would not only pay the huge sum of money as fees to acquire the knowledge, he/ she would also be required to invest time and energy in pursuit of the intellectual laurel.

    Needless to stress that the exercise can, by its very nature, be highly rigorous and exacting as opposed to acquiring the title of an ex-presidential candidate which can be as easy as breeze.

    The scenarios described above simply validate the aphorism ‘different folks for different folks’.

    And the category of presidential aspirants cataloged above are quite unlike and therefore not on the same genre with former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, Waziri Adamawa, who is a five (5) time veteran of presidential contests, and currently vying for the presidency on the platform of PDP for the 6th time.

    It does also not apply to former Lagos state governor, Bola Tinubu, Asiwaju of Lagos and one-time senator who has stated that it has been his lifetime ambition to become president of Nigeria. Ditto for Senator Bukola Saraki, a former governor of Kwara state and ex-president of the Nigerian senate who had also contested for the office of the president of Nigeria in 2019. Also not included is Peter Obi, former governor of Anambra state and running mate to Atiku Abubakar in the 2019 presidential contest and a social media sensation ,who is another candidate that has the potentials to become president of Nigeria .

    The aforementioned aspirants and a couple of governors like Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto State, Nyesom Wike of Rivers state, and perhaps Emmanuel Udom of Akwa Ibom state, who have the financial wherewithal to pursue their ambition, are by every measure or stretch of imagination prepared for the race.

    That is underscored by the fact that most of them ,except a couple, have established nationwide structures to support their mission.

    But as the situation in the United States of America, USA where the billionaire ex-major of New York, Mike Bloomberg, tried and dropped out of the race for the presidency in 2020 under the platform of the Democratic Party has proven, money alone can not guarantee success for candidates without real Politicking.

    Not in the USA and not in Nigeria.

    Nevertheless, money matters in politics as poignantly exposed by the fact that the incumbent president Buhari, relying on his cult figure alone (legendary 12 million voters in the north) had tried and failed three times to become president without adequate funding.

    It was not until oil-rich Rivers state resources and Lagos state industrial and economic powerhouse were put behind his ambition in 2015, that his presidential ship that had set sail since 2003, could navigate through Nigeria’s stormy political waters to berth in Aso Rock Villa.

    Against the backdrop of the foregoing narrative, the rest of the aspirants in my humble opinion are simply being opportunistic and positioning for other benefits.

    That is because they are largely unprepared as they lack what it takes to become president of Nigeria in terms of the fact that they do not posses the national clout, which is evidenced by their lack of household name recognition.

    Even when they are widely known, they also suffer the handicap of inability to put their money where their mouth is. That is reflected by the fact that they are most likely bereft of the capacity to deploy as much as one hundred (100) billion naira that may be required to get the mission of becoming president of Nigeria accomplished.

    And the scenarios laid out above are assuming all things are equal and also baring the imposition of candidates by the leadership of the political parties. It is worth pointing out that imposition of candidates in political leadership recruitment has been a malaise that has been afflicting our body polity, and which hopefully the new electoral act 2022 has addressed via section 84 (9) that makes it a tad more difficult to happen.

    Having analyzed the chances of most of the other serious aspirants, folks may be wondering why l am not reckoning with the interest being expressed by the current Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo to step into the shoes of his boss, President Buhari.

    While l recognize his right to aspire to become president of Nigeria in 2023 which is only a step away from his president position, it must be recognized that there is a limit to which happenstance can carry a man.

    And my pragmatic prognosis which those in Osinbajo’s camp may deem as pessimistic and an affront is not meant to eviscerate him as it is derived from both trend analysis and reality check.

    With respect to historical trend analysis, Nigerian leaders, (be they presidents or governors) are hardly keen on passing on batons of political power to their deputies.

    Perhaps, it has to do with the reality that the second-in-command position (which is what a Vice President or deputy governor really is) often is deliberately and diligently selected from a pool of the politically weak. Former President Olusegun Obasanjo at the presidency level and Ex-Lagos state governor, Bola Tinubu, at the governorship stage are the franchisers of that formula after learning the hard way that their deputies were more politically sagacious than them.

    Since, as the saying goes: ‘necessity is the mother of invention’, a counter-strategy was formulated as an antidote. Having been efficacious over the past two decades , it is unsurprising that it is now a sort of holy grail for presidents and governors alike when choosing their running mates .

    For Obasanjo, the challenge from then Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, who was poised to contest the presidency of Nigeria against his boss who was seeking a second term, rankled him.

    After Atiku Abubakar, an astute politician by every measure demurred or withdrew his interest in contesting for the office of the president in 2003, it would appear that Obasanjo never forgave his second in command as he considered the challenge as an affront.

    More so as it was rumored that Obasanjo actually went on his knees begging Vice President Atiku to lend him the critical support that he needed to realize his second-term ambition.

    So, it was unsurprising that in 2007 it was payback time from president Obasanjo to Vice President Abubakar who was effectively blocked from stepping into the shoes of his boss, Obasanjo, even if he was only a heartbeat away from becoming no 1 citizen from his no 2 position.

    Although a spirited legal battle superlatively staged by then Vice President to ensure that he becomes president followed, it was futile.

    Before the Obasanjo and Abubakar epic succession battle at the state government level, Bola Tinubu had found himself in a similar political bind.

    And he learnt the hard way that choosing a politically powerful deputy could be lethal. It may be recalled that Mrs Kofoworaola Bucknor, his deputy during his first term as governor of Lagos state gave him a bloody nose and almost prematurely ended his career following a university of Chicago certificate scandal reportedly instigated from the camp of his deputy.

    To avoid what l would like to term the ‘Atiku Abubakar and Kofoworola Bucknor Effect’, most presidents and governors have since then been picking weak politicians as Vice President or deputy governor. Which is why l am not optimistic about the chances of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo becoming APC candidate in the looming 2023 presidential contest.

    In fact, finding a president or governor in Nigeria that worked towards the Vice President or Deputy Governor replacing him is akin to searching for a needle in a haystack.

    Applying the analogy of a football team, Vice Presidents and deputy governors are not considered the first eleven that usually start the game. But good only for the reserve bench and only invited into the field of play in the event that a member of the first eleven, gets exhausted or sustains injury.

    Thus, while Umar Yar’adua, former governor of Katsina state was preferred by Obasanjo to replace him in 2007 ,Tinubu choose Babatunde , his chief of staff to take over from him as governor, same year.

    There are myriads of other instances, but suffice it to say that for the reasons outlined above, presidents and governors rarely consider their second-in-command as presidential or governorship ‘material’.

    From the prism of a reality check, the unvarnished truth is that Vice President Yemi Osinbajo is a Christian and a pastor of the Pentecostal denomination, specifically of the Redeem church.

    In Nigeria of today, where religious fanaticism has taken such an ugly turn, to the extent that religious intolerance as evidenced by the gale of killings of fellow citizens in the name of religion, has become the norm in the land of our birth, the prospect of a Pentecostal church pastor becoming president of Nigeria, appears to me to be very remote in our highly ‘religionized’ country.

    We only need to recall the outrage that followed the discovery that the minister of communications and digital economy, Isa Patami is a Muslim cleric to get the photo of how Nigerians desire separation of state (government) from religion.
    In fact , it is president Buhari’s low appetite in responding to public outcry that has kept Patami on the job. Otherwise, by now he would an ex minister. And after the storm, Patami too has been lying low.

    Owing to the outlined prevailing political dynamics in our country at this present time, although l believe in miracles, l can not muster the faith to buy into an Osinbajo presidency in 2023.

    As such, l would like to advise readers to discountenance the polls which have been putting Osinbajo and Peter Obi (ex two times Anambra state governor also Vice Presidential candidate to Atiku Abubakar) ahead of the pack of all the presidential aspirants in 2023.

    That is because given the current realities, such ratings based on established parameters of rationality are simply, bunkum. Those in doubt of my analogy would have the scales drop from their eyes by 28-31 May and 30 May to 1st June, when the two leading political party’s primaries would have been concluded.

    The true and rather sad reality is that winning the presidency, as opposed to rotation of the presidency is currently the overriding and overarching interest of the leadership of both the ruling and main opposition parties, the APC and PDP respectively. That was not the case about 30 days ago. But it is the reality today.

    Which is why the presidential aspirants from the south must wake up to the reality that the rotation of the presidency between the north and south that was the dominant agenda of political actors since the return of multi party democracy , has been Overtaken By Events, OBE-as civil servants like to term such unforeseen circumstances .

    In light of the ongoing shadowing of each other by both the APC and PDP to see where each party would zone their presidential candidates; and the evolving sentiment that it would remain in the north for some expedient reasons hinged on its claim of being the biggest voting block; what has become of the postulations and grandstanding by southern governors forum under the leadership of Ondo state governor, Rotimi Akeredolu, that the presidency must return to the south?

    When l noted in my article titled: Southern Governors Friendly Rebellion And The Perils Of Indifference By The Presidency, published widely on 23 May 2021 (about a year ago) which is to the effect that the posturing by southern governors forum, as opposed to negotiation with their northern counterparts, would only heat up the polity; l was thinking ahead. But l never envisaged that it would manifest in the shape and manner that it has unfurled so fast .

    And it may also be recalled that l had also observed in four chapters of my twelve chapters book titled : “Becoming President of Nigeria.A Citizen’s Guide”, launched in Abuja on 10th May, that the Igbos should be given the chance to produce the president of Nigeria in 2023. In the book l had also expressed heartbreak that the southeast does not have any presidential ‘materials’, that can step up to the plate. So the prospect of an Igbo presidency in 2023, may just be a mirage.

    Although my analysis angered some Igbo nationalists, I was only being pragmatic and gazing into the future. All things being equal, l am almost certain that l will be vindicated after the primaries of the two major parties are held by month end . Applying their recent actions as barometer , Orji Uzor Kalu and Anyim Pius Anyim, apparently recognize the existential reality of no clear pathway to lgbo presidency in 2023, because my prognosis since last year is manifesting right now under our very eyes.

    Guided by my assessment that there is little or no chance of the emergence of an Igbo as our next president, l had advised that an lgbo should be prepared to be under the apprenticeship of, say an Atiku Abubakar from the PDP family as president in 2023 as it was assumed that APC would field a southern candidate for president in 2023.

    After serving as Vice President for a single term, he/she would be ready to contest for the number one position,leveraging the power of incumbency and having gained household name recognition. If that becomes a reality, it would mark the first time that a Vice President would step into the shoes of his principal via election and not due to death simply because it was from the get-go, designed to have that outcome.

    But those who prefer to live in a bubble and only see things in black and white, rather than thinking out of the box which the prevailing political situation demands, denounced and discountenanced my formula for the lgbos to finally gain a foothold in Aso Rock Villa by becoming Vice President of Nigeria in 2023 and finally president in 2027. It is worth restating the fact that the last time an lgbo occupied the position of head of state of Nigeria was from January 1966 to July of the same year. Subsequently, only Alex Ekwueme of blessed memory had the good fortune of becoming Vice President with Shehu Shagari as president in 1979.
    And l hate to state the not so obvious and inconvenient truth which is that the drought of lgbos in the apogee of leadership in Aso Rock Villa would continue in 2023.

    Anchoring their hope on equity and morality which are hardly valuable qualities in politics, has rendered the lgbos politically naive and vulnerable to manipulation.
    It can be likened to a football team that plans to defeat the opposing team only through a penalty shoot-out at the end of the game.

    It would also appear to me that the Igbos do not seem to have figured out that the political arena is neither like church or mosque atmosphere where equity and morality matter the most, hence they have been banking on turn-by-turn equation.

    Going beyond the Igbo dilemma, being that only one person can become president of Nigeria in 2023, all those that doled out N100m and N40m respectively for APC and PDP forms, have automatically become elite members of the parties.

    Thus, they would not be casualties or liabilities, but Very Important Personality, VIP in their respective parties.

    As such, they would be prime assets, since it is from amongst them that the vacancies that would become available after the 29 May 2023 inauguration of the next president of Nigeria and the Vice President, would be filled.

    Against the the backdrop of foregoing , a fitting analogy would be that those who invested the hefty sums of money to acquire expression of interest and nomination forms, but fail to become president, as only one person can become president of Nigeria at any point in time: they can be likened to people who decided to jump up very high to touch the sky.

    In the event that they are unable to attain their vaulting ambition of touching the sky, they would be content with walking away with a handful of cloud. So rather than being losers, as the uninitiated members of the public are wont to believe, in an uncanny manner , the wannabe presidents would ultimately be winners, even if they fail to clinch the coveted prize of becoming president of Nigeria, in 2023.

     

    Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Lagos.

  • The 2023 Road to Aso Rock? – By Olusegun Adeniyi

    The 2023 Road to Aso Rock? – By Olusegun Adeniyi

    By Olusegun Adeniyi

     

    My friend and brother, Magnus Onyibe could not have picked a better time to publish this book, ‘Becoming President of Nigeria: A Citizen’s Guide’. But I doubt if politicians and private sector titans who have already invested forty or one hundred million Naira just to secure the nomination forms of their parties would be looking for strategies to actualise their ambition in a book. It is therefore just as well that the focus of Onyibe’s intervention is not on how to procure enough delegates at the presidential primaries of the political parties scheduled to hold by month end. However, as an intellectual contribution to a better understanding of Nigerian politics and power dynamics, this book is both educative and fascinating and I gladly recommend it, even to those who are now being ‘begged’ to contest for the number one office in the country.

    Divided into 12 chapters and spanning 357 pages, Onyibe’s book is a useful resource material, especially at a time like this when diverse forces interplay as we inch towards the crucial 2023 general election. But let me begin by stating that, like the author, I subscribe to the notion of equity in the distribution of opportunities in a plural society like ours. And like him, I also believe it would be most ideal for the next president of Nigeria to come from the Southeast. But some of the statements in the book are too simplistic for me and I disagree with a few of the sweeping assumptions. However, I believe that Onyibe has done a fairly good job and readers can then make up their minds about some of contentious issues and the way they were framed by the author.

    Right from the opening chapter, the book highlights the fireworks that typically trail every election season in Nigeria as elite political gladiators jostle for the number one job in any country. According to the author, some of the requirements for a successful presidential run include national name recognition, building bridges of friendship across the nation, a deep pocket, and perceived competence in managing human and material resources, either in the public or private sector. These attributes, one can argue, apply to those who seek the presidency in other countries, as well. But the book’s scope goes beyond being a regular guide for those who seek to capture power essentially for its sake.

    The author takes a deep dive into Nigeria’s political history and examines key trends in successive contests for the highest office in the land. In the process, Onyibe examines the Nigerian presidential institution in the broader context of the nation’s history since independence but, most importantly, within the framework of our democratic excursion since 1999. The author highlights the dominant issues that are thrown up during each presidential contest. These include issues of geopolitical affiliations, ethnicity, religion, and power rotation otherwise called zoning.

    The author traces the origin of Nigeria and dwells on the inherent leadership tussles arising from the divergence in the cultural and religious backgrounds of different peoples across the country. Reflecting on the past, Onyibe says that it was in a bid to reduce the administrative inconvenience of governing the northern and southern protectorates that the British colonialists opted for amalgamation. That they made the decision without much concern about the potential fractious relationship that the peoples of the two protectorates were likely to experience is the result of what obtains in Nigeria today.

    Since attaining independence in 1960, the broad differences between the various peoples of Nigeria have deepened, the author argues. This polarity has elicited considerable level of schisms and mutual suspicions among and between the different ethnic nationalities that make up the country. Consequently, each election season becomes acrimonious, according to the author.

    As we prepare for the 2023 general election, Onyibe shows particular interest in the aspirations of the Igbos to produce the next president. Four of the book’s twelve chapters focus in this direction. Ordinarily, according to Onyibe, with the proper checks and balances in place in a mature political system, it does not matter from which part of the country the president comes. Nevertheless, he argues that for unity and to give the Igbos a sense of belonging, the political class should cede the presidency to the Southeast. Contending that Nigeria’s politics is tripodal as in WaZoBia, and given that both the Yoruba and Hausa ethnic nationalities have produced president from among kinsmen, it is only fair that the Igbos, the third leg of that tripod, be allowed to also produce the next president.

    Arguing further, Onyibe noted that since the end of the civil war more than 50 years ago, the Igbos have not been fully psychologically integrated into the power equation of the Nigerian state. Therefore, ceding the presidency to the Southeast in 2023 on “compassionate ground” would help in resolving that problem. After making his case, the author posed a question that may not sit well with some readers, even though he was clever in the follow-up: Assuming the political system in honor of the rotation principle cede the presidency to the lgbos: are there presidential ‘materials’ from the Southeast?

    A curious feature of this book is that the author marries his opinion with that of others. The central argument is that the quest for an Igbo to become president of Nigeria has become a moral and political imperative that critical stakeholders must address. To buttress his point, the author captures the voices of some prominent leaders in the two dominant parties who could aid the aspiration of the Igbos to have one of their ethnic members as the next president of Nigeria.

    The author also highlights the need for appropriate constitutional amendments to make it easier and more likely for a Nigerian president with the right pedigree to emerge, no matter where he comes from or the faith the person professes. Such an ideal president, according to Onyibe, would possess the wherewithal to frontally tackle the numerous but solvable challenges that have kept the country in a state of underdevelopment for more than six decades after independence.

    Meanwhile, the book features a review of the various constitutions that Nigeria has adopted, starting in 1963 through the 1999 constitution. The author projects the necessary provisions that should be enshrined in the constitution to facilitate the emergence of a competent president. Going further, Onyibe zeroed in on recent efforts by the National Assembly which resulted in the amendment to the Nigerian Electoral Act 2022.

    The author expresses hope that as the jostle for the presidency of Nigeria gets into high gear, there will be a political rebirth that would transform the country’s fortunes. Such a rebirth, he believes, would see politicians placing the country’s best interest and that of the people of Nigeria over their own parochial and narrow interests. Since the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have established committees to make proposals regarding the structural changes that would help improve the political system, the author contends that both parties would be doing themselves and the nation a world of good if they implement the recommendations of their respective committees.

    Overall, the practical value of this book cannot be over-emphasized. It addresses a topic of ongoing public interest at a period when Nigerians are desirous of having a president who will tackle the myriads of challenges that now confront us. I commend Onyibe for lending his voice to a dissection of such an important topic. Whether in the 2023 election circle or in subsequent ones, who becomes the president of Nigeria will remain an engaging question, generating much enthusiasm from citizens from Lagos to Kano to Maiduguri to Jos to Enugu and Port Harcourt. At the end, Onyibe invites an honest confrontation with our stark reality as a nation.

    However, the book comes with the flaw generally associated with collections of essays written over a period and on sundry issues. But it is nonetheless a fascinating collection that reminds us about where we are coming from as a people, some of the mistakes that have been made by principal actors, as well as the lessons we have refused to learn, and the consequences of the choices being made by those who preside over our affairs.

    In ‘Becoming President of Nigeria: A Citizen’s Guide’, what the author says most clearly is that despite the challenges ahead, if we embrace a more productive and cooperative form of politics and we do the right things in 2023, we can secure the future of our country for peace and prosperity. I share that optimism.

    A review of the book, ‘Becoming President of Nigeria: A Citizen’s Guide’ by Magnus Onyibe at the public presentation in Abuja on 10th May 2022