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Tag: Magnus Onyibe

  • The real reason Buhari vetoed electoral act amendment bill – By Magnus Onyibe

    The real reason Buhari vetoed electoral act amendment bill – By Magnus Onyibe

    In my last media Intervention during the last week of December 2021, titled: “Electoral Act Amendment Bill: Interrogating The Ogbanje/Abiku Element” which was widely published in the mass media, l tried to decipher the reasons for the killing of the electoral act amendment bill five (5) times under the watch of the incumbent government at the centre.

    l had surmised in the article that President Mohammadu Buhari, as the commander-in-chief of the armed forces of Nigeria, knew what you, fellow citizens and l do not know, hence he rejected the bill which he basically informed us contains anti-democracy elements.

    Here is how l put it:

    “That is perhaps owed to the fact that in his position as the president and commander-in-chief of the armed forces of Nigeria, he knows what we all do not know, so he has his reasons which he has tried to put across to us.”

    Fellow Nigerians , l can testify that l now know what mr president knows about the potential inequity that the clause in the rejected bill mandating political parties to produce candidates for general elections, only through direct primaries, would foist on the political class. It is information that is not in the public space.

    While, l was also perplexed as to why the outgoing governors who will be exiting the powerful governors forum are empowering a forum which they would cease to be members from May, 29, 2023, the puzzle is now solved as the pressure mounted by governors on president Buhari not to append his signature to the rejected bill was beyond the selfish interest of leaders of government at state levels. So, l am no longer confounded about the reasoning behind the governors interest in allegedly prevailing on president Buhari not to append his signature to the Electoral Act Amendment Bill 2021, which had direct primaries as the only process of producing candidates for general elections.
    And I will throw more light on that shortly.

    Before then,here is how l had wondered aloud about why governors are interested in sustaining indirect primaries, in the same earlier cited piece :
    “I am expressing that curiosity because it is basically through indirect primaries that governors can wield influence in determining who becomes the president, senator or house of representatives member”

    “As most of the current governors are in the terminal stages of their tenure, after which some of them that may not make it as the President, Vice President of Nigeria or party chairman end up as senators, it does not add up that they want to bestow so much power on the governors , a power block that they will not be part of in 2023.”

    As evidenced by the conclusion above , I suspected that there was a catch to governors supporting a cause that they do not stand to profit from directly.
    What l could not figure out at that time is that the APC governors are collectively fighting for the soul of the ruling party to prevent it, and to some extent the entire Nigerian political system from being hijacked by those who could attract and mobilize more members for the party in their respective states.

    Ideally, attracting and registering more members for the party and leveraging the number for one’s advantage should not be an anathema . That is because , it is in consonance with the democracy dictum: majority carries the vote. But just like free market can not be without some level of regulations, majority carries the votes principle of democracy can not be unmoderated. Hence the free rein which direct primaries could have engendered is being managed for the good of the ruling party at the center and hopefully for the Nigerian political class as a whole.

    It is in the light of the above that l had rationalized that the ruling party might have caused a settlement agreement to be reached between the presidency and its legislators, before president Buhari rejected the bill.

    The assertion above is underlined by the fact that the party at the center , APC controls majority of the members in both the senate and House of Representatives, hence it has been able to convert the electoral act amendment bill 2021 debate into a ‘family affair ’

    As we all know , converting an official matter to a family affair is an euphemism for a resort to the compromise of the ethos of democracy or applying ‘political solution’ as opposed to adhering to the spirit and letter of the principles of democracy. So, it was sheer foolhardiness on my path to deign to assume that the legislators would suddenly grow from boys to men and override the president’s veto as the previous NASS did with the NDDC bill that became an act after then president Olusegun Obasanjo’s veto of the bill was discountenanced or set aside by NASS during his reign.

    In the instant case, as the executive arm has captured the legislative and judiciary arms of government through a series of radical actions against former CJN , Walter Onoghen and ex senate president, Bukola Saraki, who were considered a torn on the flesh of the executive arm, and were literarily neutralized by being booted out.

    These actions which some have averred as being unwholesome and inimical practices that portend danger for democracy took place mostly in the course of the first term of president Buhari’s presidency. Those behind-the-scenes maneuvers no doubt stymied the counter balancing powers of the two other arms of government which is considered an anathema in a true democracy. But coming together as a force of common good to disallow direct primaries as the only option for producing candidates that is deemed as a common threat to both the executive and legislative arms of government, is a positive development.

    It is not surprising that the collective effort of both the executive and legislative arms of government to kill the resort to direct primaries is being welcome by a broad spectrum of Nigerians including the clergy man , Hassan Kukah and some civil society organizations that had initially kicked against it.

    With hindsight benefit , l have realized that all the time that senators from the opposition party, PDP were shouting themselves hoarse that the 73 votes (signatures) required to override the president’s veto had been secured, Aso Rock Villa must have been laughing in vernacular-apologies to ex president Olusegun Obasanjo who is a veteran of such derisive laughters.

    That is simply because following the discovery of the negative value intrinsic in the resort to the application of only direct primaries in producing candidates , the ruling party at the centre , APC converting the matter into a family affair , took it out of the influence of the main opposition party , PDP.

    In any case , other legislators from the parties must have by now been apprised of the truth about the Electoral Act Amendment bill, 2021 and some of it’s toxic contents.

    So, as the popular saying goes , by killing the Electoral act amendment bill, 2021, the APC might have killed a rat without spilling its blood, metaphorically.

    Thus, the critical electoral act amendment bill, 2021 that has the capacity to give the growth of democracy in our clime a quantum leap, and which could have been another opportunity to deepen democracy in our country, which was on the cusp of an evolution through direct primaries, has been sacrificed on the alter of narrow interests premised on the belief that Nigeria is not ripe for such practice. That is one way of looking at the presidential veto.
    As pragmatic as that assessment may be , there is another school of thought which is of the belief that at such a critical juncture on the life our country, our leaders should be patriotic by taking a wholistic and altruistic approach to nation building. But the highly partisan NASS, dominated by the APC, which is monolithic, is working assiduously to stamp it down.

    It is an attribute that mimics the Republican Party in the USA that is increasingly looking like a cult group and a torn in the flesh of the ruling Democratic Party, by constituting itself into a sentinel of sorts, that is determined to thwart the lofty plans of US president, Joe Biden , such as his build back better infrastructure bill . Given the nature of politics and what we can observe and learn from the USA from where Nigeria borrowed the presidential system of governance, we need no enlightenment by any soothe sayer, before understanding that the electoral act amendment bill 2021 would likely continuously be an Ogbanje/Abiku, (be born and get killed )as long as it is in any shape or form that is in conflict with the narrow interests of the ruling party, APC or is considered to have the capacity to imperil the political system in any shape or form.

    In the course of digging deep into why the electoral act amendment bill , 2021 was not accented to by president Buhari , l have also come into the knowledge that the reason the executive and legislative arms of government seem to be working together without friction under the watch of president Buhari is that the leadership under senate president, Ahmed Lawan and House of Representatives speaker, Femi Gbajabiamila have entered into a sort of pact with the executive arm of government to work together without antagonizing each other as was the case with the the 8th assembly that was at daggers drawn with executive arm.

    What that means is that there is a deliberate effort by both arms to function more cooperatively by having standing committees with members from both the executive and legislative arms of government along with the primary agency that would implement the policy-end user also being a member of the cohort.
    For instance, in the case of the electoral act amendment bill , INEC which is the end user or implementing agency is part of the standing committee.

    I understand that it is one of methods that NASS and the presidency adopted with the aim of being on the same page when policies or bills are being prepared from infancy to maturity. A similar strategy was applied to resolve the Petroleum Industry Bill, PIB, now Petroleum Industry Act, PIA that had been on the drawing board since the return of multi party democracy since 1999.

    That strategy, if l may refer to it as such , is supposed to be a proof that the NASS is not a mere rubber stamp as the legislators have been coming across to most observers, since they appear to be looking like yes men and women by not being seen to be scrutinizing proposals floated by the presidency via critical debates on them, as they should.

    By the same token, the judiciary seem to be in acquiescence or hand in gloves with the presidency as it is not known to have barked, how much more bite the executive arm of government.

    As a democracy advocate , it appears to me that such arrangements are tending towards being dereliction of duty on the part of all the arms of government.
    Put succinctly , the three arms of government appear to be reducing their constitutional role that made it obligatory for each of them to be counterbalancing each other, to a mere perfunctory activity.

    As such, instead of strengthening democracy by strictly observing the tenets, the special arrangements may be watering down the benefits of separation of power that is the bulwark of democracy.

    Wherever the case may be, it is debatable whether such arrangements that whittle down the principle of separation of powers which is a canon of democracy are beneficial to us as a nation or only serving the selfish political interests of the present political leadership of our country. Whatever the case may be , it is another kettle of fish for interrogation on another date.

    Nevertheless , any country operating a democratic system is at liberty to tweak with the original system to suit her peculiar needs, depending on the national interest,local dynamics and circumstances in the clime .

    However, we must all be wary and vigilant of the potential corrosive effects of such practices or innovations on the fundamentals of democracy.

    And the intervention via this essay is to awaken the senses of fellow democracy advocates to the danger that such compromise arrangements portend for our nascent democracy.

    Before proceeding further , it is apropos at this juncture that l point out that contrary to the statement credited to the newly minted PDP chairman, senator, Iyochia Ayu that the ruling party at the center APC plans to rig the 2023 presidential election, hence president Buhari failed to advance the Electoral Act Amendment bill 2021 into law. l would like to announce that it is much deeper than that.

    In fact it is for APC’s own internal reason that the restriction of the process of choosing contestants for political offices by political parties strictly via direct primaries, instead of the freedom to choose from the three options of direct , indirect and consensus is rejected by president Buhari.

    Unlike when my analysis was based on conventional wisdom , hence l was astounded by the befuddling conclusions from my trend analysis that are in tandem with most of the excuses advertised as the reasons that weighed down president Buhari’s hand, hence he was unable to sign the bill into law; l am now in a better position to share with readers the real and weighty debilities (if l may refer to them as such)that compelled mr president not to assent to the bill that was transmitted to him on the 19th of November , 2021.

    At this juncture, allow me put some meat on the bone:

    It may be recalled that the ruling APC under the chairmanship of former governor of Edo state , Adams Oshiomole, the party embarked on membership drive.
    It was an initiative hailed by most pundits.

    But the motive for the initiative was not really altruistic. Rather it is self serving to particular interest groups.

    With the introduction of technology into the election process, ballot box snatching and stuffing as well as writing of election results even before they were held, using alternative result sheets which was once the vogue, have become obsolete.

    But since human beings must keep trying to find ways to circumvent the rules by bending without breaking them , no matter how iron clad the rules are , new strategies that are more sophisticated are usually devised to breach the system.

    And it so happened that the tactics of leveraging larger membership base to gain advantage in producing candidates using direct primaries , deemed in some quarters as a sophisticated way of rigging at internal party level , almost slipped through the system to become law. It was executed through some clever maneuvering in the House of Representatives, until it was killed after it had landed on the desk of president Buhari in Aso rock villa.

    If president Buhari had assented to the electoral act amendment bill , 2021 with the clause prohibiting other options except direct primaries as the only process of producing candidates, the ruling party at the center APC would have been in for a shocker as the leader of the party , president Buhari might not have had a say in who becomes the next president after him .

    That is simply because, for instance , at the end of the membership registration exercise, Lagos state had registered 4.5 million members , Kano state recorded 4.2 million members while Delta state garnered a paltry 350,000 members and so on and so forth.

    For the purpose of this analysis, l would confine my self to sharing with readers, the APC membership registration figures for the three states listed above.

    Take note that in a direct primaries option , the registered members of the party are the delegates. That is contrary to the process of indirect primaries whereby only party executives, elected representatives and government appointees from wards to local government and state levels are the delegates. Naturally , where there is no higher elected or appointed person in the state , the governor is the leader. But where there is a higher authority that person is the leader of the state, and he or she controls the delegates.

    When the conduct of indirect primaries is applied , the number of delegates from all the states are near parity.

    On the contrary , where direct primaries is adopted , the more members a state can mobilize on its membership list , the higher the number of delegates that it would present at a national convention to elect a presidential candidate in party primaries. Consider a hypothetical scenario whereby the leader of APC in Lagos state decides to run for the presidency and chooses the leader of APC in Kano state , who is the current governor as his running mate. Between both of them, they can muster about 8.5 million votes.

    If that happens , winning the primaries would be a fait accompli for the candidates from the states with the two highest number of registered voters-lagos and Kano if they decide to team up . Thus the next presidential candidate of the APC could emerge without the input of the president who is supposed to be the leader of the party.

    In effect , president Buhari would be undermined or undercut as he would have no say on who succeeds him as president of the federal republic of Nigeria of direct primaries were to be adopted as enshrined in the Electoral Act Amendment Bill, 2021 that president Buhari vetoed in 21/12/2021.

    That is simply because even the whole of the states in the rest of the south south, and south east may not be able to generate the votes that could match the number of votes coming from just the two states of Lagos and Kano.

    In the event that such happens, assuming the option of direct primaries was adopted as it was captured in the rejected bill, president Buhari would not be able to realize his plan of determining who would be the next president, a person who he stated in a recent Channels television interview that he already knows , and prefers to hold back the identity because he does not want the person eliminated.

    According to president Buhari in the earlier referenced tv interview “I will not tell you, (who the next president would be) because he may be eliminated if I mention his name.”

    Even as l do not intend to go into further details at this point, it is manifestly clear from the comment above that president Buhari already has in mind who would be the APC presidential candidate of the APC in 2023.

    It may be recalled that , former Military president, lbrahim Badamasi Babangida, lBB had also shared on Arise tv, his definition of who should be the next president. However, lBB’s view is not as weighty as that of the incumbent president, Buhari who is the current holder of the lever of political power.

    So dear readers, the real reason that the electoral act amendment bill , 2021 has been guillotined is that direct primaries would make president Buhari loose control of the party such that he would not be able to have any influence or control over who succeeds him as president in 2023, since rogue elements in his party would have literarily pulled the carpet from under his feet.

    That in my view is not a space that any leader would like to be. Every other reasons being advanced ranging from the notion that direct primaries contravenes the ethos of democracy which is about freedom of having multiple choices; direct primaries is too expensive to fund in light of the dwindling financial resources available in government (despite CBN resort to printing money) and ministry of finance increasing VAT rate and introducing new taxes (sugar tax)as well as the proposed increase in fuel pump price , guaranteed to over burden the already very weary citizens.

    By the way , the aforementioned pernicious taxes are being imposed to support big government as opposed to doing the ideal thing which is reducing the cost of governance by streamlining Ministries, Departments and Agencies , MDAs that is throwing up humongous over head costs hence very little is left to fund capital projects which are basically infrastructure such as roads , rail and electricity which are basically employment generating activities which president Buhari appear to be very determined to score high points before his exit from Aso Rock villa in 2023 .

    The other reason touted to justify president Buhari ‘s decision not to sign off on the bill, as presented by NASS , is that it is too dangerous to risk the lives of voters as they may be exposed to the danger of being attacked by bandits -recently designated as terrorists.

    On that last point, l would like to point out that it may be hypocritical since the same voters being considered as too endangered to queue up to vote during party primaries would be expected to queue up to vote in general elections as they have done in 2015 and 2019.

    The truth is that the foregoing excuses are merely what is usually referred to in the world of business as ‘corporate speak’.

    It does not necessarily mean it is the true position of things .

    That is to say that the above advertised reasons for rejecting the bill as contained in president Buhari’s memo of 21 December, 2021 to the National Assembly, NASS can be classified as official APC party position aimed at hoodwinking the undiscerning .

    If the ‘political coup’ of making the process of political parties producing contestants exclusively via direct primaries had materialized, it would have been akin to what happened to former president olusegun Obasanjo, OBJ who lost control of the party and political system after governor’s checkmated him, some say for not keeping to the bargain that he made with them for both president and governors to get a third term in office. It may be recalled that the governors worked with lawmakers from their respective states to pull the plug on then president’s proposed third term agenda exclusively for the office of president which then senate president Ken Nnamani executed perfectly by ensuring that the bill failed to sail through, and which was to the shock and chagrin of president Obasanjo who did not see it coming as he thought he had the deal sealed without being cognizant of the fact that politics about interests which are never permanent.

    Just like the current attempted ‘political coup’ against Buhari barely 17 months to the end of his tenure , the OBJ debacle also occurred at about same lame duck period.

    Another point which needs to be made is that if president Buhari and the APC are so keen on complying with democratic ethos, hence they are insisting that the electoral act amendment bill , 2021 must reflect the freedom of choice by giving political parties the three options of direct , indirect and consensus ; how come the conduct of a referendum which is a critical component of democracy being agitated for by Indigenous People of Biafra, IPOB is not accepted? For the sake of equity and justice , the application or observance of democracy tenets should not be selective . So, as mr president is currently insisting that the three options of direct , indirect and consensus options must be applied in political party primaries for the sake of upholding the tenets of democracy , is it not curious that rather than accepting that a referendum which is a fundamental component of democracy should be conducted , lPOB was proscribed and thousands of lgbo youths involved in the struggle have been sent to their early graves by government security forces and their leader , Nnamdi Kanu is languishing in jail?

    Ditto for Sunday lgboho, another crusader for the creation of Oduduwa nation exclusively for the Yoruba ethnic nationality?

    For the umpteenth time , let me restate that l don’t subscribe to the splitting up of our beloved country which is the mission of Nnamdi Kanu and Sunday Igboho. And l can even go further to wager a bet that if a referendum on Biafra or Oduduwa nations were to be allowed to be conducted , voters on the side of Nigeria remaining one indivisible country, would prevail.

    That is simply because the lgbos , Yorubas and the Hausa/Fulani that need to have a huge market to sell their cattle are aware that it is in their best interest to remain in one Nigeria.

    But in the case of the lgbos which is peculiar , they need to be given a sense of belonging by offering them the chance to take a shot at the presidency as was the case in 1999 when both Olusegun Obasanjo of PDP and Olu Falae of APP both of whom are of Yoruba origin were allowed,with the exclusion of other nationalities to contest for the presidency. It is needless restating the fact that the gesture assuaged the pain of Yoruba nation arising from the annulment of the June 12 , 1993 presidential election acclaimed to have been won by the amiable and popular philanthropist and business mogul turned politician, MKO Abiola who also lost his life in the ensuing struggle to claim his mandate.

    And with respect to the Yoruba quest for Oduduwa nation, as l understand it, lgboho is fighting inequality in the polity bordering on hegemony by a particular ethnic group over other members of the Nigerian union and he is also aiming to secure Yoruba forests from being taken over by bandits, violent herdsmen and other criminal elements that have taken over similar forests in the northern parts of our country.

    On the issue of finding suitable presidential candidates, and in a situation where there is an apparent dearth of ideal ‘presidential
    material’ of lgbo extraction, based on some universal minimum requirements, l had proposed for the main opposition party , PDP a hybrid or a short cut pathway to the presidency for the lgbo via a unique partnership with former Vice President Abubakar Atiku , Turaki Adamawa, who has the political clout and financial muscle, (a successful businessman/politician that has vied for the presidency up to four times and in nearly three decades) therefore has the momentum to build upon to breast the tape ahead of his competitors in the presidential race in 2023.

    Unfortunately, that formula -Atiku presidency with lgbo Vice President-is currently facing headwinds as PDP governors are said to be in quandary as to weather or not to adjust their position in the light of the prevailing political dynamics in the country which compels the return of presidential power from the north to the south . The good news is that politicians on both northern and southern divides appear to be poised to return power to the south , and president Buhari’s body language tends to suggest that he would like to hand over to someone from the south east.

    In my assessment, that person is unlikely to be a professional politician or a core lgbo person.

    That is all l can say for now as other details would unfold during the much delayed APC convention, if it is held next month or in weeks and months ahead.

    Meanwhile, Nigerians are holding their breathe as politics takes the center stage, and governance recedes beginning from now to May 29, 2023.

  • Effervescent Bolaji Akinyemi at 80: They don’t come this good anymore – By Magnus Onyibe

    Effervescent Bolaji Akinyemi at 80: They don’t come this good anymore – By Magnus Onyibe

    By Magnus Onyibe

    Even at an octogenarian age of 80 , professor Bolaji Akinwande Akinyemi still sparkles.

    He does so in many ways and especially with the program that he hosts and broadcasts on YouTube every Thursday , aptly titled “ThruMYeyes with professor Bolaji Akinyemi.”

    For the information of those who are yet to become devotees/enthusiasts of the program, it is an interactive forum with a menu of current issues on international relations and foreign policy which the mercurial professor Akinyemi dishes out to his audience as the chief chef. And that is in addition to the fact that he was deputy chairman of the National Confab held in 2014 whose far reaching recommendations have the capacity to change Nigeria for good.

    The import of his active presence in the foreign relations space where he remains a towering figure is magnified by the fact that he exited the position of Nigeria’s minister of External Affairs in excess of 35 years ago (1985-87).

    Yet professor Akinyemi is still a force to be reckoned with at home by virtue of the critical role that he played during the 2014 National Confab and in 2007 , as a member of the justice Mohamed Uwais Electoral Reform Committee set up by late Umar Yar’adua ; and abroad , where his footprints in his chosen field of law and diplomacy remains larger than life.

    Arising from the above, I can state without fear of contradiction that professor Akinyemi’s bones are ingrained with matters relating to international relations and affairs which by now must be a major component of his DNA since that is a space in which he has been both as a student and a practitioner for more or less 60 years of his 80 years sojourn on planet earth.

    Is it not amazing that at the youthful age of 27, the intellectual powerhouse was already a professor? That is owed to his acquisition of outstanding academic laurels from some of the best educational institutions in north
    America -the prestigious Fletcher school of Law and Diplomacy, Boston, USA , where he obtained a masters degree and the highly acclaimed University of Oxford,England where he received his PhD.

    With the hefty academic laurels in his kitty between 1975 to 1983 he was the Director General of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, NIIA-a foreign policy think tank which was a natural fit for him to head for five years before having a stint as a professor of political science at the university of lagos from 1983-85.

    Subsequently, the military government that was not partisan, but rather keen on finding round pegs for round holes , did not hesitate in appointing him the minister of External Affairs at a young age 33. Although, he served as minister for a relatively short period of two (2) years, (1985-87) he made such a positive impart that his work has continued to shape our country’s foreign policy some 35 years after his eventful tenure.

    Apart from the Technical Aids Corps (TAC)which was conceived and implemented under his watch to render assistance to fellow Africans free of charge and in the process bolster Nigeria’s leadership influence across the continent, professor Akinyemi is also the architect of the Concert of Medium Powers which is a trade and political bloc of medium power countries with regional influence that were being positioned to counterbalance, via collective bargaining, the over bearing activities of then supper powers – the USA and Russian over less powerful countries world wide.

    But European and other medium powers, most especially the likes of Sweden failed to buy into the concept, probably because , it was not propounded by one of their own , and perhaps owing to a contrived superiority complex that Europeans tend to assume that they have over Africans , they could not yield to the leadership of such a novel and positively disruptive initiative to Nigeria.

    As a result of what l would like to term miasma of despair on the part of the potential beneficiaries of the concept in the developing world and the Western world tendency to collaborate with their neighbors and allies to exploit the underdeveloped world, particularly Africans , the otherwise excellent idea propounded by the erudite professor Akinyemi suffered atrophy.

    Unbeknownst to the nay sayers , professor Akinyemi was well ahead of his time.

    It is worth pointing out that the intendments of Akinyemi’s policy proposal to birth the Concept of Medium Powers, was later realized through the emergence of China in the global scene as a formidable force that has been playing a countervailing role which has had a moderating effect of diluting the suffocating influence of Europe and North America over global trade and politics, an agenda which the visionary Akinyemi was pursuing through the concert of medium powers an idea which he first propounded way back in 1987.

    Without any iota of doubt, such a globally positively disruptive policy could not have sprang forth from no less an intellectual mind than that of professor Akinyemi who has drank from the fountains of knowledge in both the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts university, from where he obtained his masters degree way back in 1966 barely a couple of years after l was born. It is note worthy that the Fletcher School is an institution of learning that owes its establishment to World War ll . This is because it was after the war that the compelling need to set up an institution with specialization in global affairs to mitigate a future breakout of global war was addressed with the birth of the Fletcher School. It is also significant that professor Akinyemi, the man being celebrated is also a product of the university of Oxford, which is the flagship citadel of learning in Europe renowned for being the training ground for some of the world’s greatest thinkers.

    Regrettably, Nigerian policy makers or public office holders are no longer as grounded as they used to be as reflected by the impeccable intellectual pedigree of Akinyemi , simply because the criteria for public office is no longer based on merit but on nepotism or partisanship.

    The reversal in the fortunes of our beloved country is evidenced by yawning gap between the way and manner our country is currently perceived Internationally, compared to the days when a well grounded technocrat like Akinyemi was at helm of affairs in foreign policy formulation desk,first as Director General of Nigeria Institute of International Affairs, NIIA and later as minister of External Affairs where he was turning out superlative policies that rankled the supper powers and which made them hold Nigeria in awe due to the brilliant ideas emanating from our technocrats such as Akinyemi.

    Because some of our public office holders like Professor Akinyemi were so well versed in their areas of primary assignments,they made international media headlines through their dynamic and ground breaking ideas and concepts.
    Such sagacity conferred on Nigeria not just the prestige of being the leader of Africa, but also a formidable force in the world stage.

    How can it be forgotten that it is based on the potency of the pioneering work done by the likes of professor Akinyemi in positioning our country as bastion of hope for Africa with people bristling with bright ideals that could change the worst , that Nigeria was tipped to be a part of BRICS, which is a group of countries including Brazil,Russia,India and China (BRIC) an acronym of the nations identified by Goldman Sachs economist, Jim O’Neal in 2001 as countries that would dominate the world economy by 2050.

    But following a series of political miscalculations that have bedeviled our country, not limited to , but particularly stemming from the failure of military president, lbrahim Badamasi Babangida, IBB (1985-1993) to keep to his promise to hand over political power to civilians in 1993 after MKO Abiola was believed to have won the presidential elections held on June 12 of that year ; and instead a more tyrannical military dictator, Sani Abacha , ascended the throne as military head of state.

    His ascension was preceded by his ouster of Ernest Shonekan as interim head of state, after IBB stepped aside, and the consequence of the upheaval was our country’s loss of the opportunity of joining that exclusive club of emerging economic and political power bloc famously known as BRIC at that time.

    Remarkably, Nigeria’s loss was South Africa’s gain , as it was the S in South Africa, that got incorporated into the acronym to form BRICS.

    That is simply because it is within the same period that the obnoxious apartheid that scourged the conscience of the world was killed, and therefore a precursor to the emergence of the late civil rights struggle icon , Nelson Mandela who got released from prison to become president of South Africa in 1994 after a long period of oppression of black majority by a white minority.

    Thus instead of BRINC with N, if Nigeria was chosen over South Africa, we dropped out of the league.
    And since then, owing to the sordid image of our country, both at home and abroad, the nation’s fortune has been on a downward spiral.

    This is underscored by the fact that these days, Nigeria is only mentioned in the global media for the wrong reasons. As a person of impeccable character and pristine pedigree , one can not celebrate Professor Akinyemi without referencing his incorruptibility.

    So as a breathe of fresh air in the fouled sociopolitical atmosphere prevailing in our country, whereby the malfeasance of public office holders, stinking to the high heavens, is the new normal; Bolaji Akinyemi’s public service record can be an elixir of sorts.

    His story,(history) is guaranteed to bring back the feelings of nostalgia about the brilliance and high voltage intellectualism that were once the hallmark of our public servants.

    That is quite the opposite of the current narrative of financial malfeasance which are the trademark of a preponderance of our public servants, particularly the likes of Abdulrazaq Maina , the pension funds task force leader who re-looted stolen pension funds running into trillions of naira that he was tasked with recovering and ex petroleum resources minister , Deziani Allison-Madueke, whose jewelry allegedly acquired with stolen oil/gas money was recovered and sold for huge sums, the value of which would make the infamous Imelda Marcus of Philippines green with envy.

    That the exploits of professor Akinyemi in exemplary public service to his fatherland is a touchstone of sorts in the annals of our beloved country, is not debatable.

    For those that may not already be aware , it is professor Bolaji Akinyemi-ex Director General of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, NIIA and former minister of External Affairs , that introduced the concert of medium powers-a conglomeration of medium power nations with the capacity and ability to promote trade between and amongst themselves by forming a global political block as counter force to the dominance of the super powers who control the United Nations, UN and other Supra National organizations as well as Bretton Woods institutions such as the IMF, World bank , WTO and related agencies being used to manipulate the world order.

    But before shining more light on Akinyemi’s remarkable accomplishments as a colossus in international affairs , astute public servant and purpose driven leader of high integrity , allow me digress a bit by highlighting the disconcerting state of affairs in our country arising from lack of a broad world view by our current leaders culminating in the mismanagement of our diversity. That is sadly the reason that our country is now mentioned in the same breathe with failed countries like Afghanistan, Iraq or Syria either for the rising tide of terrorism or listed alongside Libya , Sudan, Mali and Ethiopia notorious for violence driven by the struggle by aggrieved members of the country seeking to be separated to form their own countries due to religious intolerance or ethnic rivalry between the multiple ethnic nationalities that constitute the country.

    Despite the magnitude of corruption that is endemic in public service Bolaji Akinyemi,having been sired by a clergy man and educationist , Reverend James Akinyemi is an epitome of integrity. Hence, although he served in premium roles in government , he has no real estate assets like mansions in high brow neighborhoods of ikoyi , lagos or Maitama, Abuja. Instead, he dwells in a modest home, not on the lsland as most public servants of his caliber who attained the level of cabinet minister, are likely to, but in the mainland of lagos.
    Compare him to the obscene situation whereby the immediate past petroleum resources minister, Diezani Alison-Madueke has been indicted for frittering away billions of oil money , some of which was used to acquire an obscene collection of jewelries and personal accoutrements that got seized and which would make Imelda Marcus(Philippines infamous First Lady who acquired 3,000 pairs of shoes) green with envy.

    And even consider the case of Abdulrasheed Maina , a pension funds task force chairman assigned with the duty of recovering looted pension funds running into trillions of naira , which he re-looted and anti graft agencies uncovered and jailed him.

    The negative effect of the heist by the pension funds looter, the compromised former minister of petroleum resources and other corrupt public and civil servants may be adversely impacting the likes of professor Akinyemi who may not be regularly receiving their pension dues as retired public servants that served without blemish. The above assertion is underscored by the fact that with the legendary irregular payment of pensioners dues which is the dishonorable trade mark of our government , honest retirees such as professor Akinyemi who did not dip their hands into public treasury to create personal retirement benefits for themselves by engaging in corrupt practices, may be in jeopardy.

    One lesson that l have learnt from the story of professor Bolaji Akinyemi is that: military regimes did a better job picking appointees for technocratic posts than politicians simply because they were adept at casting their nets far and wide to find Nigerians with the best fit for the roles as Ministers and Directors General of Ministries , Departments and Agencies, MDAs. And they did a good job hence a positive image of our country soared even if it was under military dictatorship.

    The assertion above is validated by the fact that it was under military regimes that we had the likes of indubitable Professor Akinyemi leading foreign affairs ministry, the erudite professor Olikoye Ransome-Kuti heading the health ministry and outstanding professor Babatunde Fafunwa being in charge of education ministry. All of them were round pegs in round holes at different points in time under the watch of the military.

    Apparently and understandably , our political leaders are unable to achieve such high level of professionalism in appointments to strategic public offices owing largely to the need to be partisan by rewarding those who were in the trenches with them during elections and thus helped them to prevail over their opponents.

    In my view , there is need to strike a balance between professional politicians and professionals in politics in the choosing various heads of MDAs in order to deliver on campaign promises made when seeking to be elected.

    On a personal note, professor Akinyemi is my intellectual role model. It was he who influenced me, without his knowing it , to pursue a masters degree program in Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy because as a young impressionable man, l longed to plant my feet his footprints, career wise.

    After my academic pursuit in Fletcher, l had also planned to build on it by attending the university of Oxford for a doctoral degree as professor Akinyemi had done by obtaining his doctor of philosophy degree, PhD from Trinity college, Oxford.

    Having applied and was considered suitable by the authorities in the university of Oxford for the academic pursuit, l was torn between remaining in the political arena to harness the reward of my role in the emergence of late Umar Yar’adua as president in 2007, and sacrificing my ambition of obtaining a PhD from the university of Oxford as professor Akinyemi had done.

    Regrettably, I opted for the former and lost the latter.

    Since then, as the conventional wisdom goes , a lot of water has passed under the bridge.

    It was Eleanor Roosevelt that once stated that “If life were predictable it would cease to be life, and be without flavor.”
    Professor Bolaji Akinyemi is not only an intellectual role model, but also a style icon.

    He it was that popularized bow tie wearing on a daily basis as opposed to wearing it only to weddings, for ball room dances or other special occasions.

    As l watched him on television, l got so enamored and sucked in by his bow tie so much so that when l became a banker, l developed the knack for also spotting bow ties even to work on a daily basis.

    But my obsession with bow ties was scuttled by an overzealous executive director in the bank where l was working then, and who banned, with military alacrity, my wearying of bow ties to work as a banker.
    Readers can now figure out who influenced me to the extent that the most popular photo of me that accompany my published essays and book is the one where l am spotting a bow tie.

    It is in the bid to permanently hold on to the memory of professor Bolaji Akinyemi, my intellectual mentor, that l had the privilege of having him write the forward for my soon to be released book: “Becoming The President of Nigeria. A Citizen’s Guide”.

    In conclusion , l would like the world to join me in wishing the effervescent foreign policy leadership icon , a maestro in political science, an administrator per excellence and octogenarian who turned 80 on December 4, 2022, Bolaji Akinwande Akinyemi a very happy 80th birthday anniversary.

    ONYIBE, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.

    To continue with this conversation, pls visit www.magnum.ng

  • Interrogating The Soft Landing For Retired Military Service Chiefs And Understanding The Buhari Persona, By Magnus Onyibe

    Interrogating The Soft Landing For Retired Military Service Chiefs And Understanding The Buhari Persona, By Magnus Onyibe

    By Magnus Onyibe

    Given the pattern of events in the past six (6) years of president Muhammadu Buhari’s stewardship as president and Commander-ln-Chief of The Armed Forces of Nigeria, it is easy to conclude that mr president is a Fulani irredentist and an apologist. That’s simply because the media is awash with complaints that most of those appointed into critical public offices by president Buhari have been skewed or heavily weighted in favor of the Hausa/Fulani to the exclusion of the two other major tribes (particularly the lgbo and to a lesser degree Yoruba) as well as other minority tribes numbering over 250 that make up our country .
    Those who hold that view, aver that such mono ethnic dominance tendency is more pronounced in the security architecture of the nation with members of a particular tribe and faith being at the helms of practically all the critical security agencies. And that’s on top of the fact that they are also in charge of other critical organs of the government including the leadership of the legislature and judiciary at the centre .
    But would it not be glib talk to just label president Buhari,a Fulani irredentist without interrogating or conducting a basic psychological analysis to decipher the reasons that our president tends to be exhibiting a predisposition that portrays him as selfish , clannish,ethnic, nepotistic and even a religious bigot?
    Is the fact that he defended the Fulani back in the days when following a deadly conflict between herdsmen and farmers in Oyo state , then retired army general, Buhari had to travel all the way from Kano to lbadan for a show down with then governor of Oyo state Lam ADESINA, (1999/03) enough to draw the harsh conclusion that president Buhari is a Fulani apologist?
    Is it also fair or justifiable to adjudge him to be beholden only to the Fulani simply because he is the life patron of miyetti-Allah, the umbrella association of herdsmen who are predominantly Fulani and currently in the centre of herders and farmers conflicts erupting all over the country?
    It is pertinent to point out that although he took the above referenced actions , president Buhari also defends the military and the judiciary with similar fervor. Does that make him a military and judiciary apologist or irredentist too?
    Even those he calls his friends and allies also get the kind of protection that he provides for the Fulani and by extension, herdsmen.
    Does that make him a nepotist ?
    Clearly, it is the protective tendencies often exhibited by mr president towards those that he shares affinity with such as the Fulani and other members of his constituents-the military ,acolytes and fellow party members that have earned him the negative appellations such as irredentist and apologist. In reality and to be fair, president Buhari should not just be referred to as Fulani irredentist because by his antecedents and if same logic is applied, he can also be termed a military apologist and a leader who turns blind eyes to the failings of his acolytes and devotees because he feels duty bound to do so. That’s partly evidenced by the fact that he demurred for a long time from firing the military service chiefs, even after the call by a cross section of the Nigerian public for their sack had reached the highest crescendo.
    While all the earlier listed labels attached to mr president such as selfish, clannish, religious bigot may not be easy to prove , one toga that sticks on him like second skin is that president Buhari is a tribalist.
    That’s because as a person , he appears to be wired to recognize and reward only those known and loyal to him. And owing to their loyalty, the people or groups that he helps , protects or supports are regarded as his tribesmen and women.
    That attitude to leadership would not have been such a bad trait, if the number of Nigerians outside his clan that are within his orbit were not so very limited.
    But as things currently stand , reflective of his personal lifestyle, president Buhari’s circle of friends is very small.
    As such , his actions and inactions as president in the nearly six years period that he has held sway in Aso Rock presidential villa attest to the belief that our president may be afflicted by what l would like to term-tunnel vision miasma. Which basically means that mr president may only be applying the optics of loyalty in his assessment of issues, allocation of power or in dispensing favor. In order words, the main criteria of appraisal of issues by mr president is likely to be mainly from the prism of loyalty.
    And l arrived at the conclusion above based on the psychological analysis (though l
    lay no claim to being a psychologist or psychiatrist) that l have conducted relying on trend analysis of president Buhari’s public actions and utterances .
    So, the outcome of my assessment, is that all the myths about our president being an ethnic jingoist and religious bigot have been shattered. And a new vision of who he truly is, in my opinion has just crystalized.
    My new vision of mr president has been defined or influenced by a myriad of factors,but the chief of which is the current soft landing that he has accorded the recently retired military service chiefs, by proposing them for ambassadorial appointments.
    So, by and large,any keen follower of Buharism that adjudges President Buhari to be a tribalist, would not be far from the truth.
    But the Nigerian leader is not a tribalist of the hue that is restricted to the narrow prism of his clan or state of origin. That is to say that the tribalism of our president goes beyond tongue and place of origin. It is much wider than that as it extends to the orbit of fellow human beings irrespective of the tongue, tribe and creed of those with whom he has developed a comfort zone. Based on the above precept, president Buhari’s tribe members are those that he demands absolute loyalty from, it does not matter whether they are Hausa/Fulani, Yoruba or lgbo. In like manner , he pledges his loyalty to them too-in terms of offering his protective backing through thick or thin. My finding is that once he develops a bond with anyone or group , they become his tribesmen and women.
    It is a sort of informal and unwritten commitment of sorts that makes members of mr president’s inner circle look like cult members, with him as a consigliere as the Italians like to refer to godfathers. A bond which in an uncanny way is writ large, in my considered opinion.
    That’s why the average Buharist is likely to be blinded to all his shortcomings, just as he too sees them as blue eyed princes/princess for whom he provides protective shields against their adversaries .
    As such, a good number of Nigerians tend to have the belief that president Buhari practically turns blind eyes to the atrocities committed by his devotees .
    To substantiate the hypothesis above, let’s assume that the military is a tribe.
    Given his unflinching support to the service chiefs that just retired , after being on the job for about five (5) years which is unprecedented, would president Buhari also be tagged a military tribalist for choosing members of his tribe(military)to serve as ambassadors after dithering from sacking them over a long period of agitation for their replacement by Nigerians? At least two of the five service chiefs are not from the Hausa/Fulani stock – Abayomi Olonisakin is Yoruba from
    Ekiti state, while Ibok Ete-Ibas is Efik from cross rivers state.
    For standing stoically behind the service chiefs that were on the job for an unprecedented period of 5 years , would it not be easy to also identify president Buhari as a military irredentist, much the same way as he is being labelled Fulani irredentist?
    How about the two former Supreme Court justices, George Oguntade-Yorubaman and late Sylvanus Nsofor-lgboman that he gave appointments as ambassadors to the Uk and USA-the most prestigious and strategic ambassadorial postings? These men are said to be the members of the temple of justice that offered minority opinions in his favor on the two occasions that he challenged his losses in the presidential elections to Supreme Court levels prior to 2015 when he eventually won the presidency.
    Was he also tribalistic with their appointments or can he be characterized as an apologist of the judiciary arm of government? From what l gleaned from
    my brief research into president Buhari’s actions and inactions , both Supreme Court justices are the ones who gave the minority judgements that helped candidate Buhari to keep his presidential hope alive during the dark period of his quest for the presidency.
    Being someone that treasures and cherishes loyalism, he must have felt duty bound to reward his loyalists, generously by offering them the prestigious appointments in the manner he is now putting up the retired military service chiefs for appointment as ambassadors .
    The point l’m trying to put across is that president Buhari is more of an ardent and perhaps irredeemable believer in the concept of loyalism than a mere Fulani irredentist as he is being characterized.
    So his somewhat unwavering, if not zealous commitment to loyalty, in my view, explains or is the reason his appointees are mainly from amongst his cohort and he hardly fires them.
    That leadership style or approach hinged on absolute loyalty might have originated from his military training which is steep in regimentation. Nevertheless , there are also chances that the character trait of insularity might have been innate in our president and his military orientation might have only contributed to the consolidation of his constricted outlook or worldview and unique approach to leadership . Whatever the case may be, mr president is obviously set in his ways. However, he may be difficult, but not impossible to sway from a presumably settled mind set. Take the case of naira devaluation, fuel pump price increase and petroleum subsidy removal for instance.
    President Buhari was initially resistant to such fundamental economic reforms. But he eventually yielded to superior arguments and reality by allowing the market forces to influence the dynamics of those economic factors.
    Today the naira exchanges with the dollar at N475-$1 up from about N200-$1 five (5) years ago.
    Likewise , Petrol pump price has moved from N87 per liter 5 years ago to N162 today, just as the fuel debilitating subsidy that was gulping about a billion naira annually, has also been abolished.
    As readers would notice , the naira got devalued by over 100% and fuel pump price also doubled . And those were the fears or unsavory outcomes that made president Buhari to initially withhold his accent to those policies.
    Nevertheless , the bright side to the reform in reform in the oil sector is that it is the unshackling of the petroleum sector that is apparently the reason the dreadful experience of fuel scarcity is now only viewed from the rear view mirror in our beloved country since it is currently a thing of the past.
    Tellingly , during his reign as military head of state, (1983/85) his insularity manifested when Nigeria was ostracized globally during the period that our country was acting in a contrarian manner. It is not an exaggeration to state that at that point in time, our country was on the precipice of descending into a state of Autarky like North Korea via its trade by barter , counter trade and other extreme trading mechanisms .
    And the negative fallouts of the aforementioned peculiar tendencies is that president Buhari’s circle of friends had remained within his clan and military cohort until recently when his friendship circle got developed and expanded to include the political class which he cultivated or acquired in the past six (6 )or so years of wining the presidency and holding sway in Aso Rock Villa seat of power.
    Perhaps referencing a few instances of when he has stoutly defended his new political friends or members of his political tribe in the manner he protects his Fulani kith and kins would help in throwing more light on the point that l’m trying to make about the mindset of president Buhari whose loyalty to family and friends is perhaps being pigeon holed as Fulani or ethnic tribalism.
    Take for instance, the case of the former Secretary to government of the federation , SGF Babachir Lawal who was accused of fraud and there was pressure on president Buhari to sack him . It may be recalled that when the SFG ran into the stormy waters about the infamous ‘Grass Cutting’ contract, president Buhari initially resisted probing him,how much more suspending , before finally replacing the SGF. That’s basically because they were together in the trenches throughout the period that president Buhari was engaged in the hard fought contest for the presidency from 2003-2015.
    This implies that Babachir Lawal was not just protected because he is Hausa/Fulani, which he is not. But he was initially shielded simply because he is a Buhari loyalist.
    It is note worthy that President Buhari , did not do the bidding of Nigerians until the unrelenting pressure became unbearable for him to ignore.
    Also consider , the case of former finance minister , Kemi Adeosun who was found to have procured a forged NYSC certificate-a mandatory civic duty that all Nigerian university graduates must undergo for eligibility to serve in public office. Whereas she failed to engage in the process, she presented a fake certificate fraudulently procured and this ran foul of the laws .
    It’s on record that in 2018, president Buhari equally remained adamant to the public call for her resignation or sack, and he only caved in following the monumental pressure from Nigerians.
    Mr president only protected his then finance minister with vigor in reciprocity for her loyalty , not because she is Fulani, as she is actually a Yoruba lady.
    Likewise , when his loyalist Kayode Fayemi lost his re-election bid as governor of Ekiti state in 2014 to Ayodele Fayose. Characteristic of his knack for accommodating his acolytes, president Buhari gave Fayemi a place to berth in his government as a cabinet minister and empowered him to retool in order to go back to Ekiti to reclaim his mandate in a keenly contested election that most people believe Fayemi won due to the federal government might that was mobilized to ensure president Buhari’s loyalist’s emerged victorious . Fayemi is obviously an Ekiti man and not Fulani.
    How can we forget the case of lbrahim Magu, the immediate past chairman of the EFCC who served for over 5 years in acting capacity because the senate on several occasions declined the request to approve his appointment, owing to a damning report on him by a sister intelligence agency-the Department of State Security, DSS. Remarkably, President Buhari stood by his loyalist Magu for about five years until he was caught in another vortex powered by another strong Buhari loyalist, the minister of justice and attorney general , Abubakar Malam. The allegations of impropriety against Magu culminated in to a probe, suspension , and yet to be publicly declared final outcome.
    No matter the lenses people choose to use to look at the probe of his stewardship , mr president is also not allowing mr Magu to suffer a hard exit from his role as his anti fraud tzar for five years.
    Take note that Magu is a kanuri man, not Fulani.
    Furthermore, readers are also invited to advert their minds to how president Buhari has stood behind vice president,Yemi Osinbajo when some powerful forces within the presidency moved against him as they sort to remove him via impeachment apparently for the ‘sins’ he committed when he acted as president while Buhari was receiving medical treatment in the Uk?
    As his loyal deputy , president Buhari came to the rescue of Osinbajo by not taking the bait of probing the slew of corruption allegations levied against the Vice President.
    That’s why the plot to remove Osinbajo that had thickened before 2019 re-election season evaporated like a storm blown away by the east wind.
    How about the case of Rotimi Amaechi and Babatunde Fashola-former governors of rivers and lagos states respectively- who were indicted for fraud by the probe panels set up in their respective states? Yet, president Buhari admitted them into his government as cabinet ministers which is antithetical to the avowed anti corruption posture of government under his watch.
    The duo who were governors of the richest states in Nigeria are believed (according to media reports) to have oiled the funding machinery of the campaign that facilitated the 2015 victory of president Buhari.
    Also, when the season of political storm of treachery that threatened to sweep off Adams Oshimhole as the Chairman of APC seized the political space , it was president Buhari that offered the former Edo state governor a soft landing by not allowing him to be ignominiously booted out. He did so by facilitating an honorable path to Oshimhole’s exit via the dissolution and replacement of the party’s executive committee with an interim committee. Oshiomole is from Edo state , not Fulani.
    How about Bola Tinubu, the ex governor of lagos state and the current political leader of the Yoruba race after the late sage Obafemi Awolowo? He is another loyalist that Buhari has shown unflinching loyalty. Tinubu is reputed to have been the wind beneath the sail of president Buhari and the ruling party by mobilizing and marshaling the political fortunes in south west Nigeria behind Buhari culminating in his victory as president in 2015. After three failed attempts at clinching the presidency since the return of multi party democracy in 1999, president Buhari realized that his much vaunted 12 million votes from the north was not enough to make him the president of Nigeria .That’s simply because the mandatory requirement of winning at least 2/3rd majority of votes of all Nigerians embedded in the 1999 constitution can not be fulfilled by only the votes of northerners even if he could garner 50 million votes.
    So he had to cut a deal with the political leader of the Yoruba nation, Bola Tinubu.
    For the critical and pivotal role that Tinubu played in his victory president Buhari in his characteristic manner has remained loyal to his ally. Hence he has been like the rock of Gibraltar to Tinubu by helping him stave off both internal and external challenge to his coveted position of being the political numero uno of Yoruba nation, by those who have been framing him up as a threat to Buhari whose wings need to be clipped.
    Returning to the issue of president Buhari’s recommendation of the immediate past military service chiefs as ambassadors, the resort to cat fights between the main opposition party spokesmen and the media handlers of president Buhari have not helped matters. I would argue that it is lazy and lame to drill down the nomination of the top military brass to a plot to help them escape from litigation or sanctions by the international human rights agencies, because although they enjoy diplomatic immunity, they can be declared persona non grata . And that’s in addition to the fact that, global human rights agencies that often have unlimited access to all countries in the world can also pressurize designated countries not to accept or issue the potential envoys accreditation if any human rights abuse or other crimes against humanity can be established against the officers.
    Until or unless any crime is pinned on the ex military apparatchiks, they remain officers and gentlemen.
    So the contention that it is an escape route for the military generals is not only incredible but it also defies logic . As far as l’m concerned,the conspiracy theory that is more plausible is that the motivation for their nomination is that by posting the ex Serivce chiefs out of Nigeria,they would pose less threat to government in terms of not being able to mobilize members of their constituents for a coup detat or other other seditious intentions.
    Making such speculation or conjecture is not rocket science, as it is more commonsensical.
    So, rather than get mired in the mundane argument of whether the nomination of the officers for ambassadorial posting is a ploy for them to be shielded from being prosecuted in international human rights courts, president Buhari’s reputation managers should have engaged more intelligently with the spokesmen of the main opposition party by justifying the nomination and possibly appointments through reminders to Nigerians that this is not the first time that retired army generals are being appointed as ambassadors.
    Was it not in this country that Major General Haladu Hananiya was appointed Nigerian ambassador to the Uk, 1983-84? The same army general was also a delegate to the United Nations in 1985. And there are other instances of members of the military retiring into diplomacy , not only in Nigeria but globally , including the USA.
    So why don’t president Buhari’s husbandmen make a good case for his current decision to appoint his ex military service chiefs as envoys to foreign countries by reminding Nigerians that tapping ex military generals for diplomatic positions is a practice that is at least 36 years old in our country.
    Now , my trend analysis of president Buhari’s character trait, leadership instincts and public policy initiatives that point to the fact that he is a man that usually manifests absolute loyalty to the constituent that he represents -be it ethnic, filial or group-does not absolve him from being labeled a tribalist which most of his critics have concluded that he is.
    Even mr president himself in a veiled manner had acknowledged his past narrow ethnic outlook to life and promised to change it in his inaugural speech on May 29, 2015 when he was first elected and sworn into office as president of our country.
    The phrase “l belong to no one, l belong to everyone” that featured prominently in his speech portrayed him as a man that has changed his world view from the pursuit of the narrow Hausa/Fulani interests -as evidenced by his past actions both as military head of state-1983/85 and chairman of Petroleum Trust Fund, PTF under general SANNI Abacha’s watch, (1994/98) to a much larger scope in his new role as the elected president of the federal republic of Nigeria.
    In 2016, barely one year after mr president took over the reins of power , l wrote an article titled “Federal Republic Of Inequality? The piece which was published by TheCableOnline on June 24 and in Vanguard newspaper on July 1, amongst other platforms catalogued president Buhari’s appointments into strategic public offices and noted that they were highly skewed in favor of people from his constituents. The development which had not fully evolved or come into full bloom as it currently is, actually is a breach of the federal character policy embedded in the 1999 constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria.
    Relying on trend analysis, l spotted the pattern, studied it closely and projected into the future to foretell what would eventually manifest in the coming years as leadership by exclusion or tribalism, and my projection was correct .
    Disappointingly, about six (6) years into his eight (8) years two terms tenure , and with practically two years left in his second term that ends in 2023, President Buhari can not be said (by any measure or yardstick) to have kept his promise of belonging to no one , and belonging to everyone.
    At least that’s the verdict that a vast majority of Nigerians are expressing daily in online and on traditional media platforms.
    So Mai Gaskiya, as president Buhari is popularly referred to by people in his political base and which when translated from Hausa to English,means the bearer of truth , reveals the high level of trust reposed in president Buhari by the critical mass of people in the north.
    And the phrase Mai Gaskiya also validates the unwritten principle of president Buhari being bonded by his words.
    But, most of the trust and fidelity reposed in him by the masses(talakawas) seem to be eroding fast owing to the unprecedented incidents of insecurity of lives and properties and the concomitant hunger and misery that pervades and is ravaging the nation, especially the north east and north west zones under his watch. The recent street protests against the alarming rate of insecurity of lives and properties even in his home state of katsina affirm the assertion above.
    Be that as it may, president Buhari still has enough time to literarily put his house in order so that he could reverse the negative narrative and do more good that would overshadow or blot out the past ugly experiences of Nigerians, to enable posterity judge him better.
    However, by not making any bones about the fact that he belongs to the Hausa/Fulani stock and by brazenly waving his Fulani identity, mr president has left his flanks open for exploitation by those taking his silence as acquiesce to their nefarious activities that are inimical to the common good of all Nigerians .
    Invariably, he has by omission or commission been too accommodating to those stoking the fire storm now threatening to cause a conflagration of our country due to the herders-farmers conflicts that have ravaged the entire northern states and now snowballing and constituting an existential threat and a potential trigger for ethnic conflicts in the south west and maybe beyond. The Nobel laureate, Wole Soyinka is even warning of imminent war if the current tension laden atmosphere is allowed to further escalate and degenerate.
    In conclusion, I’m perplexed that even amongst the lgbos, there are deep divisions. Hence some members of Ohaneze Indigbo-the umbrella sociocultural organization of lgbo nation has been complaining loudly that president Buhari left out the Igbo nation in his appointment of the new military service chiefs.
    In my view, it means that Ohaneze leaders and other complainants are distinguishing between the lgbos within the five (5) south east states and the lbo in south-south states like delta. Otherwise they wouldn’t be leveling the allegations of exclusion against president Buhari.
    For the sake of emphasis , the new Chief of Defense Staff, Major General Leo Eluonye Onyenuchea Irabor is an lbo man from Agbor in Delta state. I’m of the view, (and l believe most fair minded people are too) that the fact he is not from the core Igbo states of Abia, Ebonyi, lmo , Enugu or Anambra does not vitiate or dilute his Igbo linage or heritage.
    It may be recalled that during the civil war, the Anioma dialect speaking inhabitants of then Midwest state(now Delta state)were deemed to be lgbos hence hundreds of them (Asaba people in particular) were massacred by the federal troops simply because of their lgbo pedigree .
    Similar killings by federal troops , although in smaller proportions, were also experienced in Agbor and surrounding towns and villages in the Anioma speaking parts of present day Delta state.
    After experiencing such calamity, sharing in the lgbo burden and suffering, isn’t it impolitic that Ohaneze is disowning the Anioma by alleging that the lgbos have been excluded from having one of its own in the leadership position of the nation’s security architecture?
    Perhaps, to assuage the anger of the complaining members of the lgbo nation , the Chief Of Defense Staff, CDS should emphasize his lbo identity by highlighting his middle names Leo ELUONYE ONYENUCHEA Irabor.
    It is also worth pointing out that the representative of the Yoruba nation , Air Vice Marshal, Ishiaka Amao is from Osogbo in Osun state, and not from lagos, Ogun, Oyo , Ondo or Ekiti states that may be considered to be more central Yoruba states than Amao’s state of origin.
    And there is no hue and cry from Afenifere or any other Yoruba ethnic/cultural group about marginalization or exclusion in the manner that the Ohaneze and other lgbo groups have been kicking up dust.
    Be that as it may, as president Buhari enters the twilight zone of his reign, he could score a home run (a feat in American baseball game thats equivalent to hole-in-one for golfers) if he picks an lgbo man as his next choice as lnspector General of Police, lGP.
    In fact, mr president’s recent extension of the tenure of the incumbent, lGP Mohamed Adamu by another three months may be a fortuitous act, as it could afford him the opportunity to identify a thoroughbred lgbo or Southern born professional that would take over from the incumbent and thus give all members of the Nigerian union a sense of belonging.
    If per adventure president Buhari goes out of his way to compensate or patronize the lgbos ,especially since the APC would need significant lgbo votes to win the presidency in 2023, it would be a positive milestone in president Buhari’s reign and a bright spot for his legacy thats currently not looking alluring as it should, but for obvious reasons gloomy and in tatters.
    That’s a condition acknowledged by president Buhari himself , when in the course of his recent official visit to his home state , katsina, he voiced the concern that Nigerian elites are judging him harshly.
    Assuming his legacy or life after the presidency matters to him, as it should , it behoves of president Buhari to make haste while the sun shines by promoting policies and engaging in governance activities that are for the greater good of majority of Nigerians not in the narrow interest of his tribesmen and women, so that our beloved country can be off the current tenterhooks on which it is hanging.
    ONYIBE, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
    To continue with this conversation, pls visit www.magnum.ng

  • Gov. Dave Umahi’s Defection And The Unfolding Game of Political Musical Chairs – Magnus Onyibe

    Gov. Dave Umahi’s Defection And The Unfolding Game of Political Musical Chairs – Magnus Onyibe

    By Magnus onyibe

    What started as an act of defiance by former senate president, Ken Nnamani in 2016 when he withdrew his membership of PDP, before joining the APC in 2017, and an unusual step taken in 2016 by Orji Uzo Kalu, former governor of Abia state , when he exited APGA for the APC , have now crystallized into a ‘bold step’ as President Mohammadu Buhari recently characterized the defection or cross-carpeting of Dave Umahi, the governor of Ebonyi state from the main opposition party , PDP to the ruling party, APC.

    Ostensibly, unlike Orji Kalu who joined the APC to contend for the post of senate president after the APC unseated the PDP and became the ruling party in 2015 , Ken Nnamani defected because he was given a bloody nose by the PDP , a party on whose platform he served as senate president, 2005-7.

    And his loss of influence in PDP stems largely from the role that he played in ensuring that the third term agenda of then president Olusegun Obasanjo, as reported in the media , was scuttled in the Congress which he led.

    Having stepped on powerful toes, his path back to the senate was blocked by the powers that be in then ruling party, PDP.

    Now, political realignments in Nigeria’s political space is as old as the advent of party politics, so it’s not an anathema.

    Every republic since the first in 1963 to the current 9th republic has had a fair share of carpet crossing in the south-west, south-east and in the north. Jumping ship in politics is part of the so called horse trading which politics is all about.

    So it came to be that, arising from the fertile imagination of some politicians, and building upon the initiative of a former governor of kaduna state, late mallam Balarabe Musa, who was the first to promote the concept of coalition of opposition political parties against the ruling party , a political avalanche in 2013/2014 took place in Nigeria’s political landscape . That was when several governors and ex governors in lgboland joined forces with fellow politicians in then major opposition parties such as the ACN, CPC , ANPP and part of APGA in a coalition to supplant the PDP which had been ruling at the centre for sixteen successive years since Nigeria’s transition and transformation from military dictatorship into a multi party democracy in 1999.

    With Dave Umahi’s defection last week , the game of political musical chairs is now on.

    Significantly, it dovetails or it is a presage of the comment by the late political activist and media entrepreneur , mallam Isma’ila lsa Funtua, who before his passage in July this year had earlier in January, on Arise television stated that if the lgbos want to be the ethnic stock that produces Nigeria’s president in 2023 , “they should belong”.

    Off course it is not lost on most discerning Nigerians that the exhortation for the ‘lgbos to belong ‘is a sort of euphemism that our compatriots who occupy the eastern flank of our country should get out of their cocoon or bubble and sow their political seeds afar.

    It may be recalled that the charismatic political activist, mallam Funtua, of blessed memory, was responding to the agitation of the easterners that an lgboman should succeed President Buhari in office when his second four years tenure ends in 2023.

    Remarkably, in that interview, the respected northern political leader, mallam Funtua encouraged the lgbos to emulate the former vice president , Alex Ekwueme, ( May his soul Rest In Peace) who reached out of his lgbo enclave by literarily building political bridges across the country from the west to the north . A feat or phenomenon that facilitated his emergence in 1979 as vice president to Alhaji Shehu Shagari , the president of Nigeria in the second republic.

    Ebonyi state governor, Dave Umahi is the latest conscript or if you like , the most current to ‘see the light’ amongst lgbo politicians on the need to enlarge their coast. But if the motivation and ambition of Governor Umahi for joining the ruling APC is so that he woulda be the president or vice presidential candidate of the ruling party in 2023, he must be miscalculating because Ebonyi state does not have a significant population of the lgbos-only about 3m and 1.5% of Nigeria’s population. Also governor Umahi appears not to posses the political follower-ship to inspire the horde of voters which the ruling party craves.

    Who knows , Umahi may just end up being like senator Orji Kalu who defected to the ruling party, APC in 2016 with the intention to clinch the coveted position of senate president of the 9th Assembly and unfortunately, perhaps to his greatest surprise ended up in jail.

    At best , Umahi can be like pastor Tunde Bakare of Latter Rain Assemblychurch who was propped up to serve as the running mate to candidate Buhari in 2011 as a ploy to garner the votes of Christians for the Muslim /Christian candidacy which political strategists had concluded was a winning formula and a sure path to the presidency of Nigeria for Buhari who had tried twice to weave his way to Aso Rock Villa and failed.

    Following the discovery that the strategy couldn’t yield the desired dividends, simply because, although pastor Bakare and Latter Rain Assembly are both a Pastor and a Christian church respectively, they did not have enough clout to harness the Christian votes that the Buhari campaign needed. So the Buhari campaign decided to cast their fishing net farther into the sea of politics.

    Smarting from that disappointment, but obviously more determined to clinch the presidency in 2015, the Buhari campaign realigned and sought partnership with the pastor Enoch Adeboye led Redeem Church (the largest Christian denomination in Nigeria) and that’s how a senior pastor, Yemi Osinbajo an associate of former lagos state governor, Bola Tinubu , (who had served as attorney general of lagos state ) was tapped for the role.

    In my estimation , unlike the 2015 episode, the 2023 presidential race, would be a different ball game.

    That much has been projected in my new book: “ Isma’ila Isa Funtua. A Bridge Builder. The Chronicles Of A Political Activist And The Jostle For Nigerian Presidency In 2023”.

    In a chapter titled “Decoding The Encoded Comments “Nigeria Is Not Turn By Turn Nigeria Ltd” and “The Presidency Should Be By Merit And Not The Place One Comes From”, l made a case that since wisemen speak in riddles and parables, the comments needed deep scrutiny in order to decipher the real import .

    Then l proceeded to do so with facts and figures in the book.

    To the unsuspecting observer, it may sound naive , but Nigeria’s political space is gradually being constricted into a one party political system instead of multi party democracy that it was at inception in 1999 which is 21 years ago.

    The assertion above is reinforced by the claim by Kogi State Governor, Yahaya Bello, that more governors from the main opposition party would defect to the ruling party. That is if the claim were to be taken seriously.

    It may be recalled that in an interview on Channels Television, the kogi state governor reportedly made the following comment.

    “I said it long ago, not today when the party (PDP) was going through some challenges; I did say that there are 10 governors from the opposition parties that will join APC.

    “We have seen one; one that is even as equal as 10, he has joined us, nine to go. Just mark my words; I don’t lie, I will never lie, and I will never deceive anybody,”

    Frankly , wise people know that statements by politicians are not to be taken seriously, but with a pinch of salt.

    And given the antecedents in other climes , particularly American politicians such as President Donald Trump and senate majority leader Mitch McConnell who are serial culprits in the art of double speaking and spinning of yarn, lying is not peculiar to Nigerian politicians.

    Talking about governor Umahi’s defection from the PDP to the APC which his antagonists are characterizing as political macabre dance, he too appears to have mastered the art of deception as he is on record to have vehemently denied nursing any plan to defect to the ruling party, APC.

    According to media reports , governor Umahi had in 2018 stated the following:

    “Mr. President or any APC person has never asked me to come to APC, and they will never ask me. And there is no reason for me to leave my party, PDP, of which I was the party chairman, deputy governor and now governor.

    “…People that jump from one party to the other should examine their characters, except if there is any problem within your party. As of today, till tomorrow, until Christ comes, there is no crisis in the PDP. Even if there is a need for me to leave the PDP, I can never leave the PDP to the kind of APC in Ebonyi State because with the kind of leaders in Ebonyi APC, leaders that have failed Ebonyi State, I can never be on the same political platform with them”

    Clearly , the Ebonyi governor has eaten his words and thus validated the widely held belief that most politicians don’t have conscience and most of our political parties and politicians have no philosophical underpinning.

    In any case, as l have highlighted in previous media Interventions , for altruistic and strategic reasons, the ruling party APC is particularly keen on having a strong foothold in the eastern region in fulfillment of the 2/3rd majority votes spread constitutional rule for a presidential candidate to be deemed to have won.

    As the APC failed to secure lmo state firmly after gaining a foothold in 2015 through the inconclusive governorship election declared by INEC in the state and a repeat contest in some senatorial districts was called. Rochas Okorocha, incumbent governor who had cross carpeted by joining the invigorated opposition political forces against the ruling PDP prevailed and was eventually declared the winner of the governorship contest.

    That is a feat which the APC repeated in 2019 with the complex Supreme Court judgement that snatched victory from Emeka lhedioha of the pdp who had been declared winner, and the victory handed to Hope Uzodinma, based on alleged uncounted votes belonging to Uzodinma who had been earlier adjudged by INEC to have finished in the fourth position after the election.

    Putting on my futurologist hat, I had envisaged or predicted the impending capture of lgbo politicians by the ruling party , APC in 2017, when l wrote and published an article titled : “As President Buhari Turns On The Charm Offensive On The Igbos” .

    In that piece, l analyzed President Buhari’s charm offensive on lgbo politicians evidenced by a few direct and indirect actions that he had taken or initiated to correct the impression (wrongly or rightly) that the president of Nigeria is excluding the lgbos from his development agenda.

    The article which was first published by both traditional and online media platforms on November 8, 2017-about three years ago, foreshadows the current political scenarios evolving in the south east, and it is reproduced below for a review.

    It goes thus:

    “After the infamous Python Dance lI that led to the proscription of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) movement, which put the Igbos on edge, you may be thinking that President Muhammadu Buhari would leave them in the cold, right?

    Well, you may be wrong because government under the watch of President Buhari has tapped ex-Biafran soldiers in south eastern Nigeria for compensation benefits in excess of N50 billion.

    That the good gesture is being extended after over 50 years of the civil war that lasted for 30 months and killed an estimated two million people (mostly lgbo), is quite remarkable and therefore raising eyebrows.

    But government watchers were curious only to the extent that a retired army officer, Bala Yakubu, whose firm, Deminers Concept Nig. Ltd., sued the Federal Government to the Economic Commission for West African States (ECOWAS) Court on behalf of victims of the war, and will be benefiting from the largesse through the award of N38 billion worth of contract to clear the war zone of unexploded ordinances.

    But what might have escaped the radar of politicians and Nigerians in general, is that government might have seized the opportunity created by the ECOWAS Court case to embark on peace building with the easterners that have been dancing to the drum beat of secession being played by the now defunct lPOB-led by Nnamdi Kanu.

    Perhaps the current unusual magnanimity towards the lgbo, who have been crying out about marginalisation since the end of the civil war 47 years ago, is part of the strategy of defrosting the icy relationship between President Buhari and easterners who gave him only five (or is it 3%) votes in 2015 presidential election and are assumed to be bearing the brunt of casting most of their votes for the candidate that lost the election.

    Whatever the case may be, it is safe to conclude that with the 2019 election on the horizon, CHANGE is beginning to take hold in terms of politics of inclusiveness as opposed to exclusiveness, which was fuelling secessionist tendencies.

    Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), David Oyegun, had put it crudely when a couple of months ago, he reportedly advised lgbo people to join the APC if they wanted to enjoy government patronage that would translate into prosperity.

    But President Buhari is actualising the proposition of bringing back the lgbo into the mainstream (After mischievous Arewa youths served them quit notice) by turning on his charm in a bid to convert the lgbo into his burgeoning political family via good deeds.

    The different approaches or strategies adopted in trying to get the lgbo to say yes to APC by the chairman of the ruling party and Mr. President suggests a sort of bad cop, good cop scenario playing out.

    Whatever the case may be, it is worth recalling that it was Rochas Okorocha’s lmo State, where governorship election was inconclusive in 2015, so a re-run was called and APC literarily pulled the rabbit out of the hat to give then presidential candidate Buhari the infamous ‘five per cent’ votes of the lgbo, which helped him clinch the presidency.

    Going by Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution, without the lgbo’s ‘five per cent’ votes, which enabled then candidate Buhari to fulfil the requirement that compels a presidential candidate to secure 2/3rd majority of votes of all Nigerians across the national spectrum before being declared the winner of a presidential contest, candidate Buhari could have remained unelected as he had been even after winning estimated 12 million votes mainly from the core north in three previous elections.

    By and large, the critical contribution that the paltry lgbo votes made to candidate Buhari’s electoral fortune compared to the estimated 24% that Kano voters brought to the table, is a typical case of when the less becomes the more.

    But as it would appear, President Buhari might have considered only the face value of the five per cent votes, hence he reportedly felt not indebted to the lgbo but only beholden to the northern and to some extent the south west voters who cast the majority of votes for him.

    That mindset probably informed the alleged vile comment credited to President Buhari with respect to his purported plan to give unto the Igbo little government patronage, and one that is proportional to the votes that he garnered from that zone.

    Sadly, that is a narrative that has been giving fillip to the notion that the lgbo are being deliberately excluded from government and a circumstance which gave fervour to the quest for a referendum or separatism as propounded by Nnandi Kanu, whose whereabouts is now unknown.

    It boggles the mind that in a society where perception can easily become reality, two and half years after the faux pax or Freudian slip by Mr. President in far away USA found its way into public lexicon and discuss, nothing seems to have been done to debunk or confirm the gaffe until a couple of days ago.

    As a result, the whispers in the dark advanced from being mere conspiracy theory spurn by President Buhari’s competitors, to something like a statement of fact, which has been hanging over Aso Rock Villa and APC like an albatross.

    Arising from the above, the charm offensive to deodorise the odious five per cent versus 97 commentary is not only timely, but also overdue.

    Fortuitously, the recent correction of the seemingly erroneous impression that appointments into public office is skewed against the lgbo and tilted in favour of Hausa/Fulani, has been a positive turning point.

    However, the correction of the widely held impression that the Hausa/Fulani are being favoured by President Buhari over other ethnic stock in Nigeria, rather than being a deliberately planned strategy to give clarity to misconceptions, happened accidentally.

    This is because the Presidency was only reacting to a factually incorrect and hollow Business Day newspaper report, as opposed to addressing a public concern that has become a major blithe on the image of government.

    In previous articles, l had wondered what made the Presidency so complacent, insensitive or arrogant not to apprise Nigerians of its thinking on the vexed issue of appointment into public offices, which had become a hot button matter that was irritating most Nigerians. In fact, l have even heard some northerners complain that President Buhari is favouring only Daura people. Ridiculous as such mindset may be, it deserves clarification with facts and figures to disabuse the minds of the unwary complainants and stop the author of the disinformation on the track.

    Given the foregoing, what stopped Aso Rock from clearing up the mess generated by Mr. President’s unsavoury remark in over two and half years, you may wonder?

    Thankfully, although extraneous circumstances have compelled Presidential Spokesman Femi Adesina to come up with some argument to debunk the notion, when put in the crucible of truth, the justification would not pass the test of equity. This is because he failed to put the whole scenarios into context and perspective, as such , public opinion is that he was only being clever by half.

    For instance, it is commonsensical that all public offices are not equally strategic, prestigious or lucrative.

    With the people occupying the office of the president, Senate president, speaker of the House of Representatives, secretary to the Federal Government (SFG) and all the military service chiefs-Army, Navy, Air force-as well as the Police not one being from the lgbo stock in a country comprising of three major ethnic groups, of which the lgbo are a strategic part and parcel of the tripod, it can be disconcerting that no lgbo was deemed fit enough to occupy any of those offices.

    So now that President Buhari is dangling the carrot ostensibly to harness or harvest the votes from the east to facilitate a win again for him or the party in 2019, would the rabbit’s passion for carrots; monkey love for Banana or chicken craving for corn and cat’s greed for fish and even bears liking for honey make the lgbo take the bait?

    It may be too early to tell, but suffice it to say that in a country where ‘stomach infrastructure’ (apologies to Babatunde Fashola, former Lagos State governor and now minister of works, power and housing) occupies prominent position in the electioneering process, anything can happen.

    Already, President Buhari’s cabinet ministers from the east such as Chris Ngige, in charge of Labour and Productivity, Ogbonanya Onu, responsible for Science and Technology, who are ex governors and as such had grass root following are getting their campaign machines into overdrive in their bid to convince their people that the grass is greener on the APC side.

    Similarly, Rochas Okorocha of lmo State, which is the only lgbo state controlled by APC in the east and Orji Uzor Kalu, former Abia State governor, who is a latter day APC convert and Buhari devotee, are also strutting the vast land of the lgbo stirring up positive emotions in the desperate bid to court ndi lgbo for President Buhari assuming he decides to seek re-election or for the APC candidate as the case may be.

    None typical politicians like Foreign Affairs Minister, Geofrey Onyeama, and Trade, Commerce and Industries Minister Okechukwu Enelemah, who are originally from the private sector are also expected to weigh in with any clout that they can muster to get their boss or party re-elected as the ruling party.

    Unfortunately, there are no lgbo heading influential or cash cow parastatals or agencies like Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA), Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), Nigeria LNG Limited, Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA), Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), amongst many other geese that lay the golden eggs to lend helping hands to the cabinet members from the east in the mission to capture the eastern votes.

    But if President Buhari in pursuit of his proposed expansion of the federal cabinet and appointments into vacant board positions offers lucrative political appointments to more Igbo sons and daughters, and promises to construct the second Niger bridge, and rehabilitates the badly dilapidated roads in the east, APC and President Buhari may make more inroads into the east.

    Such is the power of give and take, which is referred to in politics as horse-trading.

    Ultimately, whether President Buhari or APC likes it or not, beginning with the forthcoming gubernatorial election in Anambra State, they will be facing a referendum of some sort.

    A path which lPOB wanted to tow but not recognised by Nigerian Constitution.

    The Anambra State gubernatorial election is a referendum of sorts because on that occasion the lgbo would be taking steps towards choosing whether to remain outsiders, which they seem to be now with the hope that one day a knight in shining armour would rescue and take them to another island where they will presumably be free, or allow themselves to be properly wooed like a bride and get integrated into the scheme of governance in Nigeria.

    Trust me, what happens in Anambra on November 18, 2017 may be a window into the pattern of the general elections in 2019.

    The outcome of the recent local government elections in Anambra State, which was swept by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidates should be a pointer to the way the pendulum may swing in 2019 and therefore a wakeup call.

    A similar situation is evolving in the USA where the democrats are crushing Republican Party candidates in the midterm elections, one year after the ascendancy of Donald Trump as the most controversial and polarising president America has ever had.

    As a franchise holder of American presidential system of governance, would a similar scenario play out in Nigeria? Time will tell”

    Amazingly most of the points raised in the foregoing three years old essay, still ring true today.

    And despite President Buhari’s charm offensive on the lgbos in 2017 and thereafter , the apparent marginalization of the south-easterners has remained a sore point in the relationship between the lgbos and the current government at the centre.

    The assertion above is underscored by the fact that the Senate minority leader, Eyinaya Abaribe recently continued with the lamentations about lgbo marginalization by claiming that the highest lgbo man in Aso Rock Villa is a photographer in the presidency-a curious revelation that needs to be fact checked.

    Whatever the case may be , one thing that is clear is that President Muhammadu Buhari is not a seat tight president of the ilk of Paul Biya of Cameroon who has been president of that poverty ravaged country since 1982-a whooping 38 years or Paul Kigame of Rwanda who has held the reins of power in that relatively prosperous country since the year 2000, which is 20 years on the throne.

    Not being a sit-tight-leader appears to me like the only bright spot in a presumed blighted legacy which this government is bound to leave in 2023 , given that Nigerian economy has just descended into recession for the second time in five years.

    So, Nigerians may be blaming President Buhari for the inability of his governmental to deliver the masses from poverty and insecurity of lives and properties, but the accusations would mainly be woven around mr President’s unwillingness to fire his appointees when they are seen or deemed to have fallen short of public expectations. Ordinarily, that is an onerous duty of the commander-in-chief of the armed forces of Nigeria; and a presidential function that he reserves the prerogative to wield.

    His apparent reluctance to exercise that power as signposted by his seeming ‘deafness’ to the concerted calls for the sack of the military service chiefs, most of whom have been past due for retirement, would occupy a major space in president Buhari’s leadership odyssey.

    It needs no further elucidation that in the last four to five years, Nigerians from all strata of society, nationwide, and ranging from civil society organizations to traditional rulers and faith leaders of both the Christian and Islamic faiths have all weighed in , but to no avail with the same piece of advise that Mr President should replace the military service chiefs, whom most Nigerians (correctly or otherwise) are blaming for the horrifying state of insecurity of lives and properties currently being exacerbated by the #EndSARS protests induced abdication of the police force from their roles of enforcing law and order in most cities nationwide.

    Even as President Buhari is yet to transit into his lame duck presidency period which should be a year or so to his exit from Aso Rock Villa, the groundswell of defections by members of the opposition parties to the ruling party, APC is already creating jitters amongst politicians in the polity.

    And if the dream from kogi state governor’s fertile imagination that ten governors from the opposition camp would soon join the APC manifests or materializes , that means the cross-carpeting activities may catalyze into seismic dimensions or escalate into tsunami levels.

    Be that as it may, realignment of political forces in Nigeria is not novel.

    The legacy of the four political parties earlier listed, ACN, CPC, ANPP, APGA plus a splinter group from then ruling party , PDP happened before 2015 general elections.

    The only difference now is that it is not the opposition that is attracting like minded politicians to supplant the party holding power at the centre. But the ruling party is consolidating its hold on power by poaching opposition politicians, particularly governors, which in my view is real politick and a sign of APC’s machismo. However ,would such action not crowd out smaller parties and end up making Nigeria, by omission or commission, a one party state?

     

    ONYIBE, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Massachusetts, USA and a former cabinet member of Delta state government sent this piece from lagos.To comment on this conversation,pls visit www.magnum.ng.

  • Onyibe releases book On Isa Funtua and the Jostle for Nigeria’s Presidency, 2023

    Onyibe releases book On Isa Funtua and the Jostle for Nigeria’s Presidency, 2023

    A couple of months after the charismatic political activist , construction entrepreneur and media investor, mallam Isma’ila lsa Funtua passed away on July 2020, Magnus onyibe has released a book titled “Ismaila Isa Funtua.

    A Bridge Builder. Chronicles of a Political Activist, And The Jostle For The Presidency Of Nigeria In 2023” Although , the book is in part focused on the elder statesman and his bridge building legacy , both in terms of physical and human relationships, onyibe also leveraged the critical role that mallam Funtua played in Nigerian politics since the 2nd republic when he served as a minister of the federal republic , to his last position as a member of the inner circle of the president of the Federal Republic of Nigeria during the 9th republic, to dig up and bring to the threshing floor issues surrounding the presidential power sharing calculus between the north and south. It may be recalled that the late mallam Funtua’s comment on AriseTv on 3 January 2020, “Presidency is not turn-by-turn Nigeria ltd”, set off a political firestorm that’s now raging in the political space.

    According to the author , the book which is a sort of anthology comprises of four (4) chapters .

    The first two (2) dwell on the late mallam Isma’ila lsa Funtua’s political odyssey and features comments from his friends and associates. And both chapters reveal critical facts about Nigeria from the eyes of Nigerians who have been in and around the corridors of political power in nearly four decades. The views also included are those of his former colleagues in the media, who upon his passage renamed NIJ House after him, and thus triggered another controversy as the gesture and mark of honor became another lightening rod . The other two chapters highlight some hidden hindrances to the realistic and practical implementation of the presidential power shift between the north and south equation, and amplify the historical facts to be contended with by those contending for the presidency of Nigeria from 2023 should be ceded to someone of lgbo extraction.

    The author of the book posits that , the nebulous nature of the gentleman agreement between northern and southern politicians entered into during the 1994/5 national conference to periodically swing the presidency between both sides has major short comings in the sharing formula. Onyibe notes that the flaws in the gentleman agreement are evidenced by the fact that it did not take into consideration how power would rotate within the sub regions.

    Thus , the Presidential power rotation calculus is not only inequitably distributed between the north and south , but also faulty because it does not define how it would rotate between the states on the northern or southern sides of the equation that are now hobbled or excluded from enjoying the good feeling of their son or daughter being president.

    Continuing , Onyibe makes the case that a clear evidence of the weakness of the power sharing calculus is that presidential power in the north is currently residing in katsina state where the late President Umar Yar’dua who served as president from 2007 to 2010, and president Mohammadu Buhari , the incumbent president from 2015 till date, with a mandate to serve till 2023, hail from the same katsina state. In effect the two presidents that have served under the power rotation arrangement from the north, are katsina state indigenes.

    The ugly reality of the scenario above is that owing to the limitations of the presidential power sharing agreement, by omission or commission, there is currently exclusion of the rest of the northern politicians in the eighteen (18 ) other states in the north west , north east and north central from the opportunity of producing the president until the next eight (8) years after 2023 when the presidency is supposed to commence its residence in the south. That’s nearly 12 years from now , before presidential power can return to the north, and no one knows any of the 19 northern states that the presidential power pendulum may swing to, when it exits the south in 2031.

    Given the uncertainty that the arrangement is fraught with , and the existential reality intrinsic in the feeling of exclusion being expressed by the politicians in other states in the north, the author is of the view that similar circumstances of feeling of unjustness may arise in the south, as the south west which produced president Olusegun Obasanjo, 1999-2007 may be angling to produce the next president in 2023, if the rumor and media reports about the 2023 presidential ambition of the Yoruba leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, former governor of lagos state and national leader of the ruling party , APC , is anything to go by.

    The author , Onyibe , a former commissioner in Delta state cabinet (2003-2007) concludes that should such a suspected goal or dream of the south-west become a reality , it may further alienate the lgbos in the south -east , who already , nurse the negative feeling of being treated like outsiders in the politics of Nigeria , even 50 years after the civil war that pitched them against the rest of country had ended, 1967-70.

    Onyibe who played a prominent role in the emergence of the late Umaru Yar’Adua as president in 2007 and is fast carving a niche for himself in writing about contemporary issues in Nigerian politics, is also the author of “Abba Kyari:Portrait Of A Loyalist . The Good, The Bad and The Ugly Sides of Public Service in Nigeria” which is focused on public policy administration in Nigeria , using the late mallam Abba kyari , ex Chief of Staff to president Muhammadu Buhari as a reference point.

    Another book also authored by Onyibe since the Covid-19 pandemic lockdown is titled “Beyond Loss & Grief. The story of Kikaose Ebiye-Onyibe . A Survivor’s guide On How To Cope With The Loss Of A Child”.

    It is a fathers memoir cataloguing events leading to the loss of Onyibe’s 18 years old precious daughter in a series of medical mistakes in Birmingham, England and lagos, Nigeria resulting in her avoidable death in 2017.

    The new book anchored on late mallam lsmaila Isa Funtua published by lnspire Services ltd, is focused on politics in contemporary Nigeria and it is expected to generate more excitement amongst politicians and politically conscious Nigerians in the already tension soaked sociopolitical space.

    The book is currently on sale at lnspire Media Services Ltd , Inspire Automotive City, no 235 lgbosere road,lagos island, tel and WhatsApp nos: 08033100266 and 09077958606 and major Nigerian bookshops nationwide.

  • Nigeria@60: Through my eyes, By Magnus Onyibe

    Nigeria@60: Through my eyes, By Magnus Onyibe

    By Magnus Onyibe

    At 60 years old, any human being that has not become accomplished or had his/her life anchored on any established and sustainable means of livelihood, would effectively be said to be going through post mid-life crisis.
    So when Nigeria turned 59 last year, precisely, on 3rd October 2019, l wrote and published in the mass media an article titled “Nigeria At 59: Are Our Leaders Mad?”
    In the piece, l expressed frustration that our leaders have been fighting corruption in the manner that their forbears did since independence.
    I noted that rather than win the battle against graft in the public service, the malaise has become more entrenched in Nigeria with corruption in the system growing exponentially with bribes of 10% in the 1960s now ballooning into a situation whereby the entire cost of a contract or project can be paid without the contract being executed .
    With the recent unearthing of massive heist in Niger Delta Development Commission, NDDC, NSTIF, NNPC ,and even EFCC , l had obviously hit the bull’s eyes in my candid assessment of the state of affairs in the dark world of corruption in that 2019 independence anniversary article .
    Clearly, against the backdrop of the current scandalous sleaze emanating from public corporations and their treasuries in Nigeria,our leaders can be said to have been overwhelmingly defeated by corruption. Hence I made a case that time that it would serve the current government in power, better if it changed the focus of its development agenda from war against corruption to war against poverty.
    Happily, in what seemed like a 360 degree turnaround and a sea change of sorts, on 25 August, 2020, President Muhammadu Buhari in a policy rejigging exercise, announced a relegation of anti-corruption war to the rear, while pushing to the forefront, anti-poverty war in his new 9-point development agenda.
    Although the title of my 2019 piece in reference “Nigeria At 59: Are Our Leaders Mad?” appeared a bit irreverent, it was the most forceful way that l could convey the fact that our leaders have been fighting corruption in the same manner that our forbears have done since independence, without positive outcomes, yet they persist in the folly. That is what justified my rhetorical question ‘‘…Are our leaders mad?’’
    With the incumbent president’s response which is a step in the right direction, our country may be on the path to being liberated from the pandemic of corruption.
    Since the issues that l raised in that article one year ago during our 59th independence anniversary have become even more poignant today, I would like to crave the indulgence of readers to allow me copiously reproduce same article to see if the conscience of our leaders may be pricked.
    Here we go:

    “There is a popular aphorism that goes thus: ‘A fool at 40 is a fool forever’
    With Nigeria remaining in socioeconomic doldrums at age 59, which is only one year shy of 20 years of exceeding the proverbial 40 years threshold for being a fool, does it mean that Africa’s most populous country is now certainly a fool forever?
    By way of comparison, China also celebrated seventy years as a communist country on the same day-October first that Nigeria marked its 59th anniversary of independence from Britain. That means China is only 11 years older than Nigeria in terms of nationhood and independence.
    But the East Asian country has grown from being an autarky (like North Korea trading with nobody) some 30 years ago until it joined WTO in 2001 and became a production factory to the world.
    Subsequently, China assumed the position of the world’s second largest economy status with an estimated $12 trillion GDP, and it is now on track to becoming the largest economy by global ranking, in less than two decades, when it would have overtaken the USA’s economy which is currently the world’s largest.
    By contrast, Nigeria has degenerated from being a peer to countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan and South Korea of which it was at par at independence in 1960, to banana republic levels, like Somalia, in terms of socioeconomic standards of living and security of lives and properties of citizens.
    In my considered opinion, the unfortunate and depressing descent of Nigerians into a vortex of misery, courtesy of reoccurring visionless leadership of our country over the years, is a much bigger malaise than the anti-corruption rhetoric of governments from the colonialists to military and democratically elected civilians that have not yielded any modicum of positive dividends since independence some 59 years ago.
    There is a common saying that ‘‘it is only a mad man that does one thing consistently, the same way and expect a different and positive outcome’’. One thing that is clear to all is that successive Nigerian governments have been fighting graft in the same manner since independence, without substantial positive results.
    For instance where is the humongous stolen funds said to have been recovered by the EFCC? Does the fact that it is now a subject of investigation by the Justice Ayo Salami panel not speak volumes? How about the stolen pension funds running in to billions of naira, said to have been recovered and then reportedly re-looted by AbdulRasheed Maina, the head of the task force responsible for the recovering public funds?
    So are Nigerian leaders mad? If they are not, why have they been flying the same anti-corruption kite all these years?
    Could it boil down to the fact that nobody in Dodan Barracks or Aso Rock villa seat of power, ( as the case may be) has bothered to conduct a simple research into corruption antecedents in Nigeria to realize how the scourge has defeated all the previous leaders who attempted to tame the monster as evidenced by the fact that rather than be eliminated or reduced, corruption has become more entrenched, malignant and hydra headed like a virus that’s being treated with the wrong antibiotics and as such, became resistant and cancerous?
    In the event that any reader thinks that the rhetorical title of this article is rather brash and uncomplimentary, come with me as I go down the memory lane into the annals of Nigerian history to see if at the end of the historical excursion you may not take away the same reality that our leaders may be afflicted by some mental malady which is responsible for their fighting corruption in the same manner while continuously expecting a different result.
    For instance, the justification that the likes of Major Chukwuma Kaduna Nzeogwu and co-coup plotters had for toppling the first democratically elected government in Nigeria in 1966 was that corruption had become so embedded and endemic in government and public sector that 10% of public contracts value was being demanded and paid to public officials.
    After the counter coup of July, 1966 where it was alleged that the plotters of the 1966 putsch were ‘corrupt’ and ‘fraudulent’ in terms of ethnic bias by assassinating only top military officers from a particular section of the country, and officers of a religious faith while preserving the lives of those from the ethnic stock and faith of the coup leaders, the brigadier Murtala Muhammed led coup of 1975 was also mainly driven by the crusade against government corruption.
    The fiery army general is famous for the mantra: “This government cannot condone Indiscipline” which is a military euphemism for corruption.
    That interregnum was followed by the coup led by General Muhammadu Buhari on December 31, 1983 which like the 1966 and 1975 coups was on a mission to dislodge the democratically elected government of Shehu Shagari in the bid to clean up the proverbial Augean stable by getting rid of corrupt politicians in our beloved country.
    The Ibrahim Babangida led palace coup of 1985 that unseated Buhari’s 18 months spell in office was also launched to cleanse our country of corruption. This time the corruption was not so much of bribery, but of the hue of fraud and double standards as reflected by the scandal of 53 suit cases allegedly belonging to the Emir of Gwandu which were illegally allowed into the country during change of Nigerian currency exercise. That is in addition to the case of an underage child of a member the ruling military council going on the Muslim religious pilgrimage to Mecca which was against the law, amongst many infractions.
    The fearsome army General, Sani Abacha who took over the reins of government in 1993, after Babangida stepped aside did not have any anti-corruption agenda. Rather, successive governments have recovered billions of dollars stolen and stashed abroad by the late dictator. Similarly, General Abdulsalam Abubakar’s short tenure as interim military head of state from 1998 to 1999 had no anti-corruption ideological inclination simply because it had no time for such luxury since it was only transitional.
    But the democratically elected government of Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999 was geared towards aping or continuing with the anti-corruption play book of past Nigerian leaders.
    The assertion above is underscored by the fact that, the Nuhu Ribadu led Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC was basically primed to lead the charge against corruption both in the public and private sectors in the same old style in the checkered history of Nigeria.
    Skepticism about the altruistic value of the government’s persistent war on corruption was triggered at that point as cynics were convinced that the fight against graft under the EFCC was not only partisan, but weaponized by then President Obasanjo to rein in his opponents across the political aisle and also compel fellow party members to tow his line.
    Thereafter President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, of blessed memory struggled with the battle against corruption until his sudden passage in 2010 after which President Goodluck Jonathan assumed the leadership of our country.
    Jonathan struggled to migrate the fight against corruption from the rudimentary level of naming, shaming and jailing which had been the modus operandi of successive governments, to a preventive system via technology without success, until President Muhammadu Buhari returned to Aso Rock villa as a democratically elected president in 2015 and reinvigorated the battle against corruption by reverting to status quo ante.
    If at age 59, the war against corruption, (a cankerworm that is believed to be the bane of Nigeria and the bogeyman of its socioeconomic development) started by the British colonialists in the late 1950s has remained a reoccurring decimal in the agenda of successive governments nearly 60 years after, Nigeria has certainly lost the battle.
    So let us declare a national war on poverty which is the demon or curse that the vast majority of Nigeria’s poor do not want to continue to be associated with.
    Records reveal that beginning from the pre-Independence period, Nnamdi Azikiwe, the first president of Nigeria, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, first prime minister of Nigeria and Obafemi Awolowo, the premier of western Nigeria were all investigated and indicted at various times by the British colonialists for corruption.
    Don’t take my words for it. Check the records and a google check would reveal these facts.
    The scenario above is clear evidence that the war on corruption which was started by the colonialists in the late 1950s has not been won by government, rather the corruption monster that has been bedeviling our country has been having the upper hand as evidenced by the fact that the various successive regimes in Nigeria have made the need to fight against corruption their raison dete.
    Before I am accused of being a corruption apologist allow me to acquaint you with the anti-corruption record of China, the world’s second largest economy. Since 2012 when the current Chinese premier Xi Jinping assumed power, an average of 50 top officials are tried and jailed annually. In some cases the death penalty was applied.
    And there are nearly one million public office holders under investigation in the city of Beijing alone, according to Minxin Pei, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College in the USA.
    Even high ranking military chief, Guo Boxiong recently committed suicide while being investigated for bribery. That is in addition to a Communist Party General Secretary and politburo member, Sun Zhengcai who was also tried and jailed according to a report by a Drake University don, David Skidmore.
    If the purpose of the heavy crackdown on graft like the one recently carried out by the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohamed Bin Salman, MBS, is ostensibly to send the message that nobody is above the law or untouchable in Saudi Arabia, corruption in that oil rich Arabian country has not abated.
    Mark Jennings, a Forbes magazine contributor reported that although the Chinese leader is portrayed as having zero tolerance, “however, China ranks 77th on Berlin-based non-profit Transparency International’s 180-country ‘Corruption Perceptions’ scale. The widely cited index assigned it a low-ish to mid-range score of 41 last year, barely changed from 39 in 2012 when Xi took office and in every intervening year”
    Similarly, Moody’s Investors Service has found that China also falls in the middle of the pack for graft that impairs a country’s “ability and willingness” to repay debt, says The Service’s Singapore-based associate managing director Marie Diron. From records, anti-corruption and its false positive outlook is not different in Nigeria.
    We are all witnesses to our country’s slide in the corruption index from about 121 in 1996 to 144 out of 175 least corrupt countries according to Transparency International rating.
    As if to compliment the abysmal corruption rating, our country has taken over from India as the poverty headquarters of the world, according to survey by World Poverty Clock.
    All these woes have befallen Nigerians despite the rigorous fight against graft put up by president Buhari including unwittingly endorsing the branding of Nigerians as ‘ fantastically corrupt’ by ex UK prime minister, David Cameron.
    By simple logic, if the fight against corruption that has been waged by colonialists pre-Independence and subsequently by our political leaders, post-independence for at least 60 years had been successful it won’t a remain permanent feature and battle cry of leaders till the present time and our country like its former peers such as Singapore would be first, not third world. Isn’t it amazing and absurd that both Obasanjo and Buhari fought corruption as military heads of state and still returned after 30 years as democratically elected presidents to fight the same scourge?
    A rather odious but curiously pragmatic slogan promoted by the Nigerian police force, NPF some time ago was: ‘if you don’t trust the police, try the thug’
    Given the underpinning logic of the rather nihilistic police slogan, since Nigeria has failed abysmally in fighting corruption for so long, why don’t we launch a national war against poverty frontally? After all, corruption is only one of the many contributors to poverty as there are a slew of other factors that engender it.
    So why don’t our leaders take on the poverty demon directly? One of the measures or policies for mitigating poverty is a robust social safety net. Presently Nigeria does not seem to have a robust social safety net that could serve as a buffer or cushion for the poor against poverty.
    Under Ibrahim Babangida’s regime, a social safety initiative, ‘‘Better Life For Rural Women’’, was promoted by his wife, Mrs Maryam Babangida of blessed memory. The women empowerment program had a profound effect on a critical mass of Nigerians from the grassroots to the top echelon.
    More so because it was women focused and being the gender that is basically responsible for the home front, it was adjudged a resounding success. Before that program, there was the Jerome Udorji-led upwards review of salaries of civil servants tagged ‘Udorji Award’ in 1974 under Yakubu Gowan’s regime which rather than solve the challenge of poverty , exacerbated it as it spiked inflation in the economy.
    There was also Petroleum Trust Fund, PTF promulgated under the watch of the late military dictator, General Sanni Abacha and meant to ameliorate the pains from the increase in petroleum pump price. That exercise led by, then army General, Buhari was blighted by large scale corruption.
    The current N500 billion special intervention funds set aside by the present government in power for social investment as encapsulated in the tradermoni, school children feeding, N-Power youths empowerment initiative, statutory transfer of N5,000 to indigent Nigerians schemes, have proven to be less efficacious basically because the motive and implementation have been adjudged not to be altruistic.
    As a matter of fact, the current anti-poverty schemes have been dogged by criticisms including a scathing dissing by, First Lady Aisha Buhari who lamented that tradermoni did not get to her people in Adamawa state, a complaint and grudge also echoed and nursed by a plethora of Nigerians from other states.
    Critics, especially from the opposition party also allege that tradermoni, under the purview of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo’s office has been nothing but a vote buying scheme by the ruling party.
    The allegation underscores the belief that the social safety measures which president Buhari copiously mentioned in his Independence Day broadcast as being one of the fulcrum of his administration, has been as unedifying and forlorn as the long futile fight against corruption waged by successive governments going back to the colonial days which is in excess of 60 years.
    My candid advice on what should be a practical alternative to the unproductive war on corruption in order to pull a critical mass of Nigerians out of the misery of poverty trap as the Chinese has done is simple:
    Let’s declare a national war on poverty in the way that Nigeria’s peer countries at independence in 1960 such as Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia amongst others did. We can start by understudying the blue print of some of these Asian tiger countries. A good candidate that lends itself to such emulation is Singapore.
    The secret of success of that south East Asian country has been well documented in the critically acclaimed book by its former President who is regarded as the ‘father’ of the country, Lee Kuan Yew, titled “From Third To First World: The Story of Singapore, 1965-2000”.
    In that book, Nigeria was referenced, sadly not for good, but for the notoriety of our leaders for corruption. Nevertheless, it has nuggets of wisdom for Nigerian leaders to imbibe and emulate.
    Another country that made a successful leap forward from poverty to prosperity in a relatively short span that Nigeria should copy its Standard Operating Procedure, SOP is China.
    It is a former Chinese Premier; Deng Xiaoping that is credited with being the architect of Chinese rapid development famously said that ‘‘it is through the window that you open for development to come into a country that corruption can also slip in’’. Put succinctly, a good leader must learn to deal with both progress and corruption pari-pasu.
    In spite of its largely criticized and generally unsuccessful anti-graft crusade, China has simultaneously pursued its development agenda and as such it has been able to lift over 200m from poverty into prosperity.
    It is difficult to believe that today China is the second largest economy. But in 1994, inflation in China was 24% and nearly 60% of the population lived on $1.90 a day, which basically is the current situation in Nigeria.
    China, the east Asian nation and the world’s most populous country achieved the economic leap forward feat through its now highly acclaimed development paradigm known as the Four Modernizations which were first set out by Deng Xiaoping whose mission was to strengthen the fields of agriculture, industry, defence and science & technology.
    The Four Modernizations were adopted in 1977, replacing the Cultural Revolution driven by chairman Mao Zedong whose warped communist policy got the country trapped in poverty for ages.
    Remarkably, Nigeria has adopted and is currently implementing aggressive developments in agriculture which is the No 1 amongst the ‘Four Modernizations’ policy that accelerated the socioeconomic growth of China.
    By controlling tariffs, migration, demography, exchange rate, as well as interest rates, even though those policies are not compliant with global best practice, the Chinese leaders, particularly Deng Xiaoping and now Xi Jinping liberated a vast majority of Chinese people estimated to be 1.3b from being peasant farmers to industrialists and great scientists.
    Nigeria, home to the largest no of black people in the world (200m), can also achieve a similar feat if we all put our hands on the plough and place national interest ahead of ethnicity, religion and any other pre modal sentiments which have shackled our country and is responsible for the nation’s arrested development.
    With high quality input from the respected crop of economists drawn from the academia and the private sector recently inaugurated as members of the Presidential Advisory Council, PAC, by President Buhari, I am optimistic that Nigeria is at the cusp of an economic voyage of discovery”.

    Isn’t it amazing that most of the elements and issues thrown up in the article written and published a year ago still ring true today?
    What has become of the social safety net funds that president Buhari released to the relevant agencies of government towards providing succour for the most vulnerable in our society?
    According to reports by the ICPC, an anti-corruption agency with focus on civil servants, about N2.67b of the funds meant to provide food for students in colleges during the COVID-19 pandemic induced lockdown, has been traced to private pockets.
    Continuing, the ICPC Chairman, Bolaji Owasanoye, at a recent anti-corruption stake holders meeting, reportedly stated that so much more funds , budgeted for the alleviation of poverty via injection into agriculture and education sectors to help Nigerians in the lower rung of the social ladder , are still missing from the public treasury. But the perfidious civil servants have cleverly moved the funds out of the government platform, TSA into other opaque accounts to mask the stolen funds and make them impossible to follow or track by investigators. That the funds that are set aside for feeding our wards in schools, (l mean our children who are the leaders of tomorrow and the collective future of our country) can get stolen by nefarious civil servants is not only ignoble, but stomach churning, because the thieves would most probably be parents and leaders in our society and perhaps deacons in churches and alphas in mosques that they attend.
    To conclude my assessment of Nigeria in the past sixty years of independence through My Eyes, allow me put you on notice that similar complexities and even worse are captured and featured in my soon-to-be-launched books: ‘‘ISMA’ILA ISA FUNTUA: THE BRIDGE BUILDER – Chronicles of a Political Activist and The Jostle for the Presidency of Nigeria in 2023’’. The first book shines the light on the intrigues and manoeuvring in the ongoing battle for the presidency ahead of 2023; and the second book, ‘‘LEADING FROM THE STREETS: Media Interventions by Public Intellectual, 1999 – 2019’’, tracks and discusses Nigeria’s socio-political and economic trajectory, since the return to multi-party democracy 21 years ago.
    In my view, after 60 years of unrealized hope as a nation, and the continuous groping in the dark for leadership by the good people of Nigeria , our country is still afflicted with malaise of mutual suspicion of dominance of one ethnic nationality over the others . The fall out of which is that the nation now seems to be at the crossroads, with two of the major ethnic groups, lgbo and Yoruba, except the Hausa/Fulani expressing the desire to be separated from the union . The fear of a possible breakup of the country is a position also affirmed recently by Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo and which he has admonished Nigerians to, by all means , avoid and prevent.
    It is cherry news to me that our leaders, at least at Vice President level, is now awakened to the fact that, it is time to press a national reset button.
    In fact, it is not too late to repair the fabric of National unity which has been badly damaged in the last decade, especially in the past five years when the politics of ethnic identify has become the Standard Operating Procedure, SOP, for the majority of Nigerian politicians.
    All it would take to turn the tide is a courageous and visionary leader who can take the bull by the horns.
    And president Buhari is in a pole position to seize the moment and make Nigeria greater than he met it, as opposed to leaving it in tatters.

    ONYIBE, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst , development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts USA and former Commissioner in Delta State cabinet, sent this piece from Lagos.

  • Ex-Delta Commissioner, Magnus Onyibe releases book on how to cope with death, grief

    Ex-Delta Commissioner, Magnus Onyibe releases book on how to cope with death, grief

    Three years after losing his precious daughter, Kikaose Ebiye-Onyibe, former Delta State Commissioner for Information, Magnus Onyibe has released a book that dwells on the subject of dealing with grief arising from the loss of a child.

    In the poignant, heart-breaking, yet hopeful and life-affirming memoir titled: ‘‘Beyond Loss and Grief: The Passage of Kikaose Ebiye-Onyibe, A Survivor’s Guide to Handling the Loss of a Child’’, Magnus Onyibe sought to leverage his family’s journey through grief, pain, acceptance, and the eventual celebration of a life to offer valuable counsel to families that have lost a child or those that will go through the experience in the future on how to deal with such a heart-rending loss.

    The book opens with Onyibe introducing the reader to a trip he, his wife and their youngest child made to the University of Birmingham in the United Kingdom, where Kikaose was a second year law student, to retrieve her belonging after she passed away in a hospital in Ikoyi, Lagos.

    Chapter 2 titled: ‘‘Eclipse’’ takes the reader back to the circumstances that led up to Kikaose’s death. Reading through this chapter, one is tempted to scream ‘‘how could all these have been allowed to happen?’’ as Onyibe recounts the litany of professional misconduct and negligence that ultimately led to the demise of his precious daughter at the tender age of 18 years.

    While the book dwells mostly on his daughter and the life she lived, Onyibe sought to honour the lives of 20 other young people including children of public office holders, businessmen, celebrities and other citizens who were taken from their families in the prime of their youth

    According to Onyibe, the pains from the untimely death of a child do not go away. A parent lives with it until they depart this world for the great beyond. However, he believes that a parent owe it to themselves and their departed child to grieve graciously.

    He explains that ‘‘there is good grief and bad grief. Good grief entails accepting our loss and the emptiness we feel as a consequence but looking to go beyond that point to a place of healing and growth’’.

    ‘‘Grief, if well-handled can lead to healthy growth after a loss. We can achieve this by contextualizing our loss using the optics of the possibility that the tragedy could have been worse. If we lost a child, it could have been two. If we lost two children, it could have been three or four. No one prays for such a grievious tragedy as the loss of a child but when it happens, we must find a way to deal with it and continue to live and be productive.

    ‘‘But grief can be bad as well. This happens when we allow grief to fester by harbouring negative thoughts such as: ‘‘the world hates me’’ or ‘‘my enemies are trying to get me’’. Like a bad sore, when grief festers, it could lead to complications that might compromise our health’’.

    Onyibe also suggested that besides contextualizing the loss, families could grieve graciously and heal faster using the apparatus of family bonding. ‘‘Family bonding after the loss of a loved one can be therapeutic. It is critical because it allows grieving family members to reconnect emotionally with one another and serve as one another’s support to better cope with the loss. Ideally, this should take place in a location outside the usual home setting’’

    In the later part of the book, Onyibe points out some common mistakes that parents sending their children abroad – particularly to the UK – should avoid. The content of this section of the book are intended to serve as an advocacy for the protection of the precious lives of our young people who leave Nigeria to study in foreign lands, away from the watchful eyes of their parents. It is aimed at enlightening both the young people concerned and their parents on how to avoid suffering the type of tragedy which Onyibe and his family have been coping with over the last three years.

  • National Consultative Front, NCF and The Emerging Pattern of Politics, Politicking and Politricks, By Magnus Onyibe

    National Consultative Front, NCF and The Emerging Pattern of Politics, Politicking and Politricks, By Magnus Onyibe

    By magnus onyibe.

    Nothing defines the title of this essay more than the cause and the outcome of the recent‘internecine’ war in the APC triggered by the struggle for power between a Godfather and his godson in Edo state which has inflicted on the former, a bloody nose and seared the latter politically.
    Whereas it took the former ruling party , PDP now in opposition almost fifteen years before it imploded (1999-2015), it is taking the current ruling party, formerly main opposition party less than six years to reach the milestone of implosion if the recent crisis within the party further degenerates.
    Uncannily, history is repeating itself as the remote and immediate causes of the conflicts in both the APC now and PDP in 2014/2015 are self seeking egotistic intentions and inclinations of the leadership.
    In the case of the PDP about 7-7 years ago, the party descended into anarchy as the center could no hold longer hold, apologies to Chinua Achebe. The inferno that engulfed the PDP was ignited by a cornucopia of powerful men who had disparate agendas of becoming president but got threatened when then president Goodluck Ebele Jonathan decided to present himself for election for a second term in office in 2015 which was against the spirit and letter of the agreement reached after the sudden passage of President Umar Yar’adua of blessed memory.
    It may be recalled that Jonathan , then Vice President was left in the lurch because power had not been
    passed over to him by his principal before he passed away.
    That lapse created a leadership lacuna which was fortunately cleverly resolved through the now famous Doctrine of Necessity introduced by the National Assembly, NASS.
    With the breach of the agreement as reflected by GED’s re-election ambition stymying the presidential ambitions of particularly former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and then senate president Bukola Saraki, amongst many others, hell was literarily let loose as the aggrieved members , led by the former Vice President Abubakar staged a walk out of a PDP leader’s conference held in Yar’adua Centre in Abuja.
    Subsequently , the cohort of aggrieved PDP top shorts sired what became nPDP signifying a split within the PDP, the ruling party at that time which justified and legitimized the act of cross carpeting from one party to the other that could have constituted a breach of the law had a split in the party not been established.
    As it turned out, the PDP shrugged off the negative effect of the split up by the dissenting high ranking members, evidently to its peril.The assertion above is underscored by the fact that the formation of nPDP and the subsequent berthing of the ship of the dissenters in the camp of the the leading opposition parties that culminated into the formation of Action People’s Congress , APC by four leading opposition parties( ACN, CPC , ANPP as well as part of APGA) ushered in the demise of then ruling PDP.
    Although the implosion of then ruling party, PDP appeared inevitable, it could have been reversed through deft political moves , like the one just made by president Buhari to save the APC from imminent disintegration . But the PDP at that time choose to live in denial resulting in its eclipse in 2015 by the APC .
    Fast forward from 2015 to
    2020 and it would clear to all that the current schism in the ruling party , APC is mimicking what happened to the PDP about 5-6 years ago.
    President Muhammadu Buhari, unlike then president Jonathan has risen up to the occasion by dousing the fire that had literarily engulfed the ruling APC via his deft political moves of dissolving the National Working Committee, NWC and National Executive Committeee, NEC and setting up a caretaker committee to replace it and with the mandate to organize a convention in six (6) months.However, some have referred to mr president’s move as politricks or dirty politics because Victor Giadom who was laying claim to the chairmanship of the party was apparently lured into setting up the meeting and thereafter dumped, as he was reportedly walked out of the meeting after the NWC was dissolved.
    Despite all of the above actions so far taken , the tension in the APC is still far from being resolved , so it is not yet Uhuru in the ruling party.
    It is a major characteristic of,and if you like, intrinsic flaw in politics , that most of the leaders like the immediate past chairman,comrade Adams Oshiomole and national leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu who are still stunned by president Buhari’s masterstroke, but have pledged loyalty to the president would regroup to recover their crown and pride. That’s despite the pronouncements by their supporters that they are sheathing their swords by withdrawing the numerous cases that they had instituted against the APC in court.
    And if my knowledge of realpolitik does not fail me, l’m convinced that these notable political gladiators that have been injured and are still feeling giddy from the surprising blows to their political enterprise are only in retreat as opposed to surrendering, totally.
    As such , the outcome of the proposed ruling party’s conference which presumably would be held in December or thereabout, may lead to a few patch ups here and there, but that certainly would not be the end of the furore.
    As it is typical of politicians, at the most auspicious time, they would come out of hibernation and show some machismo.
    That may be in the eleventh hour when the tenure of president Buhari would be coming to an end and he is transiting into the realm of a lame duck president.
    While I don’t lay claim to being like Nostradamus who saw tomorrow , but l foresee the formation of another powerful political party by the aggrieved in the APC in cohort with other politicians from other parties , not necessarily the pdp, but other platforms, before 2023.
    In the event that the APC splits up at the cusp of president Buhari’s exit from Aso rock villa, it would feed into the oft repeated narrative that the APC was just a political vehicle for president Buhari to fulfill his presidential ambition.
    And the best beneficiary of APC’s implosion would have been ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo nurtured, Coalition For Nigeria Movement, CNM which later morphed into ADC party in 2018 in preparation for the 2019 election.
    Unfortunately, after the collapse of the technocrats studded CNM into the fledgling ADC party, it fizzled out as dramatically as it was birthed. As such, it could not gain a foothold in the 2019 general elections contest as had been hyped and anticipated. Many factors could be advanced for the early demise of the new fangled political platform that was full of promise as it was expected to fill the void of the visionless leadership that its founders ascribed to the ruling and main opposition parties APC and PDP back in 2018.
    First of all, the Ralf Nwosu founded ADC which was Pat Utomi’s platform for a presidential run in 2007, was or is still a party driven by technocrats.
    Secondly, it lacked the financial muscle and the elaborate political structure to sustain its existence, how much more gain the required momentum to compete against the former main opposition APC which traded places with the PDP by becoming the ruling party in 2015 while PDP replaced it as as the leading opposition party.
    In a manner reminiscent of the founding of CNM in 2018 on Tuesday July 1, 2020, a new movement National Consultative Forum, NCF comprising of civil society activists,technocrats, academicians, lawyers, labour leaders and an ex military man was announced.
    It was a sort of dejavu to me because , most of the actors (Pat Utomi, Oby Ezekwesili, Etal) that were in the- CNM vessel that was envisaged to be a cruise liner but ended up being a dingy boat that two years ago was capsized by minor storms , are the same paddlers of the new political boat.
    I intentionally characterized the new vessel as a boat and not a ship because it is yet to demonstrate whether it is capable of withstanding the storms associated with the oceans of politics which only robust and sturdy ships can navigate successfully. Already some of the touted founders such as Olisa Agbakoba , Femi Falana and Abubakar Dangiwa Umar are distancing themselves from the movement. Your guess is as good as mine as to who next would deny being part of this new fraternity, which may be a child of necessity but whose birth the purported parents are denying. To me listing people who were not consulted as members of a group, smacks of dishonesty and passes off as politricks.
    From experience, egg heads and activists such as the members of the current movement like Utomi, Ezekwesili, Jibo Ibrahim, Chidi Odinkemelu, lsa Aremu , mailafia Obadiah, shehu Sanni, Nkoyo Toyo , (the usual suspects) have never succeeded in making headways in politics in Nigeria simply because they lack the organizational framework to facilitate such elaborate venture.
    That perhaps explains why, apart from military men , (as evidenced by ex president Olusegun Obasanjo, current president Muhammadu Buhari, and former senate president , David Mark) only professional politicians who have been at it continuously have succeeded in politics with money bags as the wind beneath their sail.
    One of the plausible reasons for the edge that the military has over the other categories of Nigerians, especially other professionals is that having ruled Nigeria continuously from 1984 when the last democratic Govt led by Shehu Shehu shagari was toppled via a coup detat, to 1999 when multi party democracy returned to our country, only men in uniform have
    occupied public offices long enough to gain national name recognition. To be clear , l have no grudge against the military going into politics. In fact my dad was a soldier, so the military has a special place in my heart. That’s why l personally feel let down whenever they fail to perform up to the expectations of the Nigerians and worse still, when their leadership decide to clog the growth pipeline by failing to depart from the stage by retiring when their time is up and by so doing stunt the progress of officers below. So much for the Nigerian military.
    For any other individual to gain such popularity or notoriety as the case may be, he/she has to continuously be in the political game like Dr Olusola Saraki and chief Anthony Anenih, Adamu Ciroma ( of blessed memories ) who were constantly in politics for about four decades.
    In the UK, former prime minister, Winston Churchill was a soldier and so also was Dwight Eisenhower and Theodore Roosevelt in the USA military generals .
    According to the USA Department of Veterans Affairs records, out of the 45 presidents of the United States of America , 29 of them had some military background.
    Even in the developing economies such as Korea and Pakistan, some of their presidents were first of all military men, before they became democratic presidents-Park Chung- Lee in Korea and Muhammad Ayub Khan in Pakistan readily come to mind .
    So transiting from military to presidency is not an anathema, but intellectuals and activists were not left out of the those that leapfrogged into presidency in the Western and advanced democracies earlier chronicled .
    According to records , Woodrow Wilson , the 28th President of the USA is reputed to be the only president of that country to hold a PhD degree. And the prestigious Harvard University has produced 8 presidents, and they include Barrack Obama, George W Bush, John F Kenedy, and both Roosevelts, Theodore and Franklin. Others are John Adams , John Quincy and Adam Rutherford Hayes.
    The likes of Bill Clinton attended Yale university, while Richard Nixon obtained his degree from Duke university both of which are also Ivy League like Harvard .
    So far, in Nigeria, the highest level that intellectuals, academicians, labor activists, journalists and clergymen have attained in governance is up to governorship. And these include, professor Ambrose Alli of former Bendel state who was an academician , Alh Lateef Jakande and Aremo Segun Osoba, former journalists who ruled lagos and Ogun states respectively and reverend jolly Nyame of Taraba state, who was a clergyman.
    From the medical profession, comes Dr Bukola Saraki who ruled Kwara state and Dr Emmanuel Uduaghan, the immediate past Governor of delta state as well as the current delta state Governor, Dr Arthur Ifeannyi Okowa. Coming in the rear is Comrade Adams Oshiomole, a former labour leader and activist who is the immediate past governor of Edo state.
    There have also been professional bankers like Abdulfatah Ahmed in Kwara state, Willie Obiano in Anambra state and Emmanuel Udom in Akwa lbom state.
    l’m not unaware that the likes of Alh lbrahim Shekarau, ex Governor of Kano state and prof Osariemen Osunbor , who was briefly the Governor of edo state, as well as Alh Shehu shagari , plus Goodluck Jonathan were professional classroom teachers before they mounted the saddles of leadership as governors and presidents.
    To be clear, the possession of a university degree is not a guarantee that one would be a good president or leader as evidenced by the 9 presidents who had no university education in the USA and acquitted themselves creditably . Our experience in Nigeria with respect to presidents being well academically grounded, is worse because apart from Goodluck Jonathan, no other president has had a university education before becoming president or head of state, except Nnamdi Azikiwe and Tafawa Balewa in the first republic.
    It is worthy of note that former military heads of state , Yakubu Gowon and Olusegun Obasanjo obtained university degrees only after they had completed their tour of duty.
    The point being made by dredging up all the facts above is that with other professional having made it to the Governorship level,they can now be said to have been in the political game long enough to ‘take a shot’ at the presidency of Nigeria. In other words, other professionals in Nigeria have now come of age politically and are therefore setting their gaze on Aso rock villa as the presiding officer, indicating that they are no longer content with being mere chief economic and political advisers to the president, chief of staff to the president or permanent secretary in the presidency.
    The university dons don’t even want to remain INEC returning officers for elections, courtesy of Abubakar Jega , the immediate past lNEC chairman who during his tenure extended political party elections largesse to his former colleagues in the academia.
    The forgoing are some of the reasons, I’m not ready to write off, (for lack of a better term), the JULY 1 MOVEMENT being spearheaded by a coterie of professionals with a mishmash of egg heads , human rights activists, labour leaders and technocrats, most of whom have tried in the past to clinch the presidency but failed.
    In my view, failure is not a death knell in politics. In fact, it can be a building block.
    History has taught us that Winston Churchill failed several attempts at becoming prime minster in the UK until he succeeded.
    Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of Nigeria failed three times and only succeeded on his fourth attempt.
    Also, let’s not forget that the coalition of political parties against the PDP , when it was the ruling party, failed on many occasions, before it finally succeeded in 2015. That happened when all the main regional parties- ACN, APC, ANPP nPDP and most powerful politicians realized that while they were busy engaging in supremacy battle , their common foe , PDP was waxing stronger so they hastily agreed to suspend their respective unique and sometimes conflicting interests and agendas for the sole purpose of making it impossible for the PDP to realize the boast of its former national chairman, Vincent Ogbulafor, that the party would rule over Nigeria for at least 60 years.
    So Pat Utomi and Oby Ezekwesili are in good company with President Buhari who failed serially before he eventually made a triumphant entry into Aso Rock villa in 2015. Based on experience, a single political party can hardly remove a ruling party in Nigeria from office, but a combination of opposition parties can accomplish the feat as evidenced by APC’s success in supplanting the PDP in 2015 after a coalition of major opposition parties.
    One thing that’s certain now is that the time for the real change that our country men and women have been yearning for may be nigh.
    But it has to be made clear to NCF that it would take more than rhetorics and grandstanding to make it to Aso rock villa.
    My preliminary assessment of the new movement is that they may have robust media presence, excellent vision and intimidating spunk , but they certainly lack the political wherewithal.
    Clearly , they are not deep pocketed; and they hardly have the political structure to reach out to the grassroots which is required to clinch the presidency. The presence or absence of those elements can make or mar political ambitions.
    Therein lies the dilemma.
    Unfortunately, we are not in a society where volunteering is a model in politics that could have reduced the cost of organizing and mobilizing supporters which are critical ingredients in party politics . At the same time, political funds raising is also not popular here , simply because of income disparity whereby the rich may be a mere 5% of the population with the rest of the 95% mainly in the middle or poor income bracket struggling for the proverbial daily bread . Such people have no money or time to spare. Rather , they are targets for votes purchase by unscrupulous politicians – a phenomenon that former lagos state Governor, now Works and Housing minister, Babatunde Fashola tagged ‘stomach infrastructure’.
    What that does to politics and politicking ,is that it leaves the field open for money bags to occupy and thus enable them engage in politricks that more often than not manifest as Godfatherism amongst other negative fallouts that have bedeviled many states and currently afflicting Edo state and which is the trigger for the recent firestorm that engulfed the ruling party, APC .
    And that is part of the underlying reasons public office holders engage in primitive acquisition of wealth through hook or crook to satiate or free themselves from their godfathers, and have enough skimmed off to feed the next election circle where a candidate for public office would be the source of livelihood for legions of supporters.
    In conclusion, heartily, the new political movement is starting early, so they have enough time to do their homework, such as consulting with those that they want in their cohort before announcing them publicly as members. The NCF or the JULY 1st Movement as l would like to continue to refer to them at this juncture, must get such seemingly innocuous aspects of politicking right before the real horse trading begins. The founders of the novel movement must recognize and internalize the fact that robust organization is very critical and central to political party formation and operation.
    As it now appears, there seems to be a consensus of opinions amongst Nigerians that the ruling party, APC has failed to create an atmosphere of peace , security, safety and stability for our countrymen and women to thrive, and occupy a pride of place in the comity of nations. And by the same token, most Nigerians have also not forgiven the former ruling party, PDP, now the main opposition party, under whose watch the country did not fair so much better, not in terms of security and safety of lives, as is currently the case , but with regards to economic development of our country to full potentials . So a new crop of politicians that would bring a new lease of life to politicking based on sound intellectual and pragmatic understanding of the yearnings of Nigerians, as opposed to the current situation whereby people who lack the ability to comprehend issues, how much more articulate them, dominate the political space , may be the type of politicians that Nigerians would like to elect in 2023.
    In the light of the above , cleaning up the proverbial Augean stable may not be in a revolutionary manner, but it could be like in the USA where ‘drain the swamp’ in Washington which is a euphemism for sweep out the old politicians became the battle cry of president Donald Trump and his surrogates four years ago and it still remains so today.
    As the saying goes, nature abhors vacuum, so the political momentum is now available in Nigeria for any group with spunk to seize.
    And the assertion above is underscored by the fact that professional politicians appear to have currently become too battle fatigued and therefore weary, perhaps owing to a lot of changes that have taken place in the political landscape in the past six years or thereabouts. The emergence of professionals like the NCF on the scene , to seize the space with the intention to quickly transform themselves into professionals in politics should awaken professional politicians who consider themselves to be the Goliath in Nigerian political ecosystem . By now they must be aware that David is lurking behind them.
    And what that portends has been very well documented.

    Magnus onyibe, a development strategist,alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy , Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA , and a former cabinet member of delta state Govt , sent this piece from lagos.

  • A Clarion Call To Declare World War III Against Covid-19 Pandemic, By Magnus Onyibe

    A Clarion Call To Declare World War III Against Covid-19 Pandemic, By Magnus Onyibe

    By magnus onyibe

    To protect our lives and livelihood, let’s declare world war lll against Covid-19 pandemic.
    The assertion above is underscored by the fact that until medical scientists find a vaccine, which we are told could take between 6-18 months, it must be clear to all that Covid-19 pandemic poses the threat that would be with us for some time so it is an existential and probably longtime deadly threat.
    Before proceeding further ,I would like to crave the indulgence of readers to pardon me for recommending the deployment of the same zeal applied in fighting the world wars l&ll to combating the Covid-19 pandemics which appears to be hyperbolic. But l’m compelled to do so as the fierce and deadly attack on humanity by Covid-19 pandemic, in my view is comparable to the catastrophic consequences of the two world wars.
    In the light of the scenario described above, we all need to combat covid-19 the way our forbears wagged the world wars between 1914-18 and later 1939-45.
    That’s because, by now, it should be clear to all who were initially skeptical that Covid-19 pandemic is a nihilistic threat to humanity much the same way that the two world wars were , which is why l’m making the clarion call that we should declare a Third World War against it.
    As a matter of fact, l’m buoyed by the reality that a lot has been written about how the next world war would not be fought with arms and ammunitions or nuclear weapons, because the prediction is that it would most likely be a cyber war. That forecast in my view has come to pass in the form of an invisible virus that originated from Wuhan in December 2019 in the Kobe district of China. Whereas most of us might have been expecting the cyber warfare to be waged by a country such as Russia , North Korea or lran, and non state actors like terrorists of the ilk of Al Quaida, Taliban , lSIS, so far there has not been claim of ownership of coronavirus by such nefarious ambassadors . However , there is the suspicion that the virus might have escaped into the atmosphere from a laboratory in Wuhan, China, which is a notion that China has dismissed as conspiracy theory . Whatever the case may be, the reality is that a very formidable force that has come to wage war against humanity is present with us and it is called Covid-19 pandemic .
    Fortuitously , this time, the world is not dealing with an army with armaments such as submarines, stealth bombers, atomic bomb, bazookas and bayonet which was the case during the two world wars ; nevertheless we are in fact battling against a tiny virulent organism whose devastating effect may not be as physically violent, but its aftermath on humanity is nearly as grave and devastating as the effect of the atomic bomb, which ended world war ll. The forgoing assertion is underscored by the fact that at a point, owing to the lockdown, the ever boisterous landmarks across the world like Time-square, New York, Eiffel towers, Paris and Buckingham palace , London were like ghost towns.
    And with socioeconomic activities in at least 90% of planet earth forced to shut down for almost three months, (March to May) l’m not exaggerating the impact of coronavirus and it underscores the fact that we can no longer afford to treat Covid-19 pandemic with kid gloves.
    And that is why as it was done in 1914, which was the first time that the most powerful countries in the world would align their military into two opposing camps with the sole purpose of one party defeating the other for the restoration of world order, l’m calling on the world to come together once again to wage world war lll against Covid-19 pandemic.
    It is significant that although the sad events; the two world wars, happened about a century ago, the lesson to be learnt is that when world peace was threatened, military forces were mobilized and galvanized to combat it. It needs no further elucidation to be convinced about the threat that the yet to be unraveled novel coronavirus poses to mankind today is an equivalent to the remote and immediate causes and consequences of the two world wars, hence l’m making a clarion call for world war lll against Covid-19 pandemic.
    Before dwelling further on the war dynamics , permit me to illustrate the threat of the Covid-19 pandemic with armed robbers and their victims. We all agree that armed robbers usually apply intimidation in subduing their victims.
    With guns pointed at their victim’s heads , the muggers usually pose the Hobbesian question to their traumatized prey : your money or your life?
    Naturally, he/she always chooses his/her life over the money by parting with it.
    The coronavirus pandemic which has disrupted our lives in several deeply significant ways has forcefully thrust on humankind both a health and an economic crisis or if you like, life and death options.
    Life, which the armed robber in the analogy above demanded in his question: your money or your life, represents our health and the money part of the question represents the economy. What the logic above implies is that Covid-19 pandemic is asking us the typical armed robber’s question: our money or our lives? We have wisely offered our money by obeying the shelter in place rule which compelled us to be fully locked down at home for 28 days.
    Having chosen to save our lives (health) over money ( economy ) by being on lockdown with zero economic activities , and another 28 days of partial lockdown ending June 1,thereafter, we must all resolve to fortify our locations to ensure that the robbers (coronavirus) dont gain access into our residences or offices again.
    And we can do so by making sure our bodies and by extension our lives become as impenetrable as Fort Knox- the most heavily guarded bullion with USA gold reserves.
    And we can do so by learning how to make sacrifices like soldiers so that we can successfully engage the killer virus, Covid-19 pandemic in a warfare. Fortunately , the weapons for defending our selves are not sophisticated military armaments like tanks, fighter jets or gunboats , but simply the act of wearing of masks, washing of our hands regularly and physically distancing ourselves by allowing a space of 6 feet between us and others. So our weapons of defense are so simple and require no special skills such that the war should not be too difficult to wage.
    But disappointingly, prosecuting the war against Covid-19 pandemic has not been as simple as it should be . That’s because although it is the only way, (in the absence of a vaccine) that we can prevent the armed robber ( coronavirus) from further wrecking our lives , the aforementioned preventive or defensive strategy which appears simple, has not been fully embraced by all of us as we should. As such, it is mankind’s inability to deploy the afore listed weapons(wearing masks , washing hands with soap regularly and physically distancing from one another by at least 6 feet) against our current enemy no 1, Covid-19 pandemic that according to researchers at John Hopkins university,USA is largely responsible for the nearly 5.5 million people now infected globally by coronavirus that has left a number of human beings shy of 350,000 dead ; just as nearly 8,000 people have been infected in Nigeria with our compatriots numbering nearly 230 in the number of the dead, with figures of those infected in the USA inching towards the 2 million people mark and about 100,000 people projected to have been killed by the disease before June 1st.
    The sordid situation is further worsened by the fact that, instead of taking on the disease frontally and aggressively by deploying science and technology to vanquish the virus before it kills us without further delay through a world wide collaboration by scientists , we have a situation whereby the world supper powers-the USA and China that should be leading the war are quibbling about whose fault it is that Covid-19 pandemic is suddenly and surprisingly taking the world by storm . In a rather fortuitous manner, it is the cat fight between the leaders of the country where coronavirus originated and the country where it has killed the highest number of people that has revealed the unpreparedness of both leaders of the world for a catastrophe such as Covid-19 pandemic.
    While presidents Donald Trump
    of the USA , and Xi Jinping of China are busy trading blames, the virus which was obviously initially hidden from the rest of the world by the Chinese from whose soil the virus emanated and the USA that had also initially underestimated the capacity of the disease to quickly spread and wreak havoc in the manner that it has done in the USA and the rest of the world , the coronavirus is having a field day snuffing out lives in a manner that is making the world look like a defenseless killing field in the 21st century. The threat is now so real to the leadership in Nigeria that President Buhari who was initially seemingly reticent, over the weekend during Sallah celebrations revealed that he is now frightened by the rapid growth in the number of coronavirus infections in Nigeria which is on the brinks of hitting the 8,000 mark on or before June 1, if testing continues.
    While science has so far failed to clearly unravel the nature and character of the killer bug, compelling scientists all over the world to be racing against time to rein in the ferocious disease, the rest of us none scientists must be galvanized into a formidable fighting machine to stem the tide of the spread of the highly contagious disease. If our forbears successfully combated the Spanish flu ( which is in several ways similar to coronavirus) about a hundred years ago, l don’t see why we can’t do better now.
    It may be recalled that the Spanish flu started afflicting people at the twilight of world war l in 1918 and it continued to decimate human population until a vaccine was discovered a couple of years later .
    Before going further, allow me return to my proposal for a world war lll against Covid-19 by refreshing our minds about the World War l which was wagged to make the world a better place for mankind.
    As we all might already know, it involved France, Britain and later the USA on one side and which later became the allied forces warring against nazi Germany led coalition comprising of Russia, Hungary and the Balkans as well as the Ottoman Empire which were known as central forces from 1914-1918.
    While the origin and cause of the war are inconsequential in the context of this essay , the import of using the world war l as illustration should not be lost as it is aimed at averting our minds to the seriousness of the fact that about a 100 years ago, when an enemy just like the novel coronavirus tried to upend the world order by creating instability driven by one country’s leader’s inordinate ambition to dominate the world , there was a response from coalition of forces stretching from Europe to USA that engaged and defeated the foes.
    Having highlighted how the world war lll against Covid-19 pandemic can be executed , it is appropriate to return our attention to Nigeria and focus on how we can harness local resources in order to win the war against Covid-19. About a decade and half ago, when as a counter measure to the insecurity of lives and properties arising from threats by bandits, which was prevalent across Nigeria , and the police force and other security agencies were largely unable to enforce law and order, vigilante groups sprang up across the country.
    At that time, it was a sort of self help initiative for some communities to set up local vigilante groups such as Odua Peoples Club, OPC in the South West, Bakkassi Boys in the south East and Arewa youths council in the North.
    Since the issue in the north at that point in time was the enforcement of Sharia rules which has just been introduced in the Muslim dominated northern part of Nigeria , further sub units were set up in the various states. Amongst them are lsbah in Kano and other brand names such as civilian JTF that were adopted in Sokoto, katsina , Bauchi to combat Boko haram insurgents etc. These quasi security operatives helped maintain law and order in areas where the conventional security forces were ineffective. But , hopefully we may not need coercion for compatriots to observe the Covid-19 protocol of wearing face mask, washing of hands with soap and social distancing measure of putting at least 6 meters between each other in public places.
    Each time l see flash back photos of ladies gaily dressed up while adorning anti virus masks covering their noses, which actually compliment their elegance, as a measure to keep away the Spanish flu, (of which Covid-19 pandemic is the modern day equivalent) l can’t help but admire the courage of our forbears and the sacrifice that they made to overcome the murderous Spanish flu which ravaged humanity from 1918 to 1920.
    Given the way our great grand dads and mums, uncles and aunties religiously adorned themselves with the masks and observed the hand hygiene protocol of regularly washing of hands and following social distancing rule by physically standing apart from others by at least 6 meters , l wonder why our generation seem to have lost the much cherished sense of discipline and responsibility which was on parade back in the days and the reason they were quite successful in combatting the Spanish flu pandemic before a vaccine was found.
    It might surprise some people to learn that most fashionable styles of today evolved from unpalatable circumstances. Take the iconic trench coat for instance.Not many realize that it was popularly used by combat soldiers in the trenches during the two world wars. Today , it is a fashion statement in the Western world , particularly, in Europe.
    In like manner, l don’t see why masks should not be embraced by all and sundry even as l’m mystified that some outlaws in the USA shot some security shop guards to death because they were asked to wear nose masks before being allowed into some shops.
    Back home in Nigeria, it is unarguable that whatever is not monitored or enforced is not complied with. Since we have identified what to do and not do to stop the spread of coronavirus, instead of staying at home , we should progress into the adaptive defensive state against Covid-19. This simply means that we have to learn to live with the pandemic by going back to work being fully conscious of what to do to avoid catching the virus until a cure is found.
    To ensure that the simple protocol of putting on masks when we are outside the confines of our homes , washing of hands regularly and keeping a safe distance of 6 meters between us and the next person, in addition to the security agencies that have the mandate to enforce the laws, the services of vigilante groups earlier mentioned as being existent across the broad spectrum of society, should be engaged to complement the efforts of the security forces who would otherwise be overwhelmed by the sheer number given that Nigeria’s ratio of 1 police man/woman to 400 citizens is grossly inadequate.
    The idea of leveraging vigilante capacity is derived from the precept that instead of the OPC harassing non lagos indigenes by reminding them that lagos belongs to ethnic lagosians; Arewa youth council issuing ultimatum to the lgbos to vacate the northern part of the country and the defunct Bakkassi boys (that has perhaps morphed into IPOB ) and Niger delta militants pursuing separatists agenda in the south east or seeking resource control in the Niger delta , they should make themselves more useful by joining the security agencies in enforcing the anti Covid-19 pandemic protocols of wearing face masks, hand washing with soap regularly and physically distancing from others by at least 6 feet. If govt can enlist the help of the vigilante group as the enforcement unit of the war against coronavirus, the negative energy of the various local culture police ( in the absence of community police) would have been converted to positive energy for the security and stability of our society by helping save our lives and our economy which is on the brinks of collapse, if Govt does not rescind the stay at home or partial lockdown order .Furthermore , the various regional civil security outfits currently being established such as AMOTEKUN in the south west and the proposed set up of similar regional vigilante outfits in the south-east and south, (which is still work-in-progress) should in addition to their security functions be veritable sources of Human Resources for enforcing the anti Covid-19 pandemic protocol.
    In any case, basically all of us should be disciplined enough to resolve to act as if we are truly engaged in a war which we must win by adhering strictly to the mandate of wearing masks, washing our hands regularly with soap and social distancing, with or without being policed, which are the measures that were developed as antidotes to the Spanish flu as far back as 1918 when no remedy for the epidemic had been found.
    Losing the war could be equal to losing our lives as Covid-19 pandemic is merciless and stealthy. For instance, in its nascent stage, scientists thought it was only old people’s disease. But it has turned out to be all people’s disease irrespective of age bracket, as all age grades including children, youths and middle age people have been known to have been taken down by the dreadful disease.
    As scientists have informed us, Covid-19 pandemic needs a host to live in and for it to be spread. By not observing the anti coronavirus protocol, we will be unwittingly serving as incubator and vessel for the spread of coronavirus,if we fail to make it our enemy no 1 by faithfully wearing our masks, washing our hands regularly and strictly social distancing via staying at least 6 feet apart from each other.
    What we can all also do is to be resolute in making those that have already been infected by coronavirus the last and thus stop the virus in its track, if we all vow that we can never be the next host by being extra careful and ultra sensitive to our environment through wearing our masks in public places always , diligently washing our hands constantly and practicing social distancing as if the next person to us has the plague which indeed Covid-19 pandemic truly is.
    As the saying goes , in every disaster, there is always opportunity if we look closely. In that regard , Govt can also support the work of the scientists working to unravel the Covid-19 pandemic by engaging and recruiting our teeming army of unemployed youths to assist them in contact tracing and isolating those who have already caught the virus. That way, Govt would be using one stone to kill two birds as it would be creating employment and at the same time fighting the coronavirus .
    Now, I’m not unaware of the dictum, “it is easier said than done” so l will concede that it is going to be difficult to get Nigerians to buy into the idea of always wearing masks in public places , constantly washing their hands with soap and socially keeping the distance of about 6 feet apart from each other. But l’m banking on the fact that Nigerians are known for rallying around good causes if they believe in them.
    That’s why I’m of the conviction that if Govt should deploy the necessary resources for mobilizing the masses as it usually does when it wants their votes during political party elections, we can all do the needful and win this all important world war lll against Covid-19 pandemic.

    Magnus onyibe, a development strategist,alumnus of the fletcher school of law and diplomacy, tufts University, Massachusetts, USA , and a former cabinet member of delta state Govt , sent this piece from Lagos.

  • Posthumous Birthday Tribute: Kikaose Ebiye-Onyibe [29/4/98 – 12/4/17]

    Posthumous Birthday Tribute: Kikaose Ebiye-Onyibe [29/4/98 – 12/4/17]

    Dear God,

    Kikaose was only 18 years old when you called her home on April 12, 2017 under very tragic and questionable circumstances. My family and I could have been bitter, but we are people of faith. And the holy book reminds us that we can’t question you – God, while admonishing that in every situation, we should give thanks.

    So we thank you God for giving us the privilege to be the father, mother, senior sister and junior sister to Kikaose – an angel who passed through this earth, but now in “that secret place with Jesus”. Her daily jottings in the dairy has formed the nucleus of a new book Beyond Loss & Grief, The Passage of Kikaose Ebiye-Onyibe; A Survivor’s Manual For Coping With The Loss of A Loved One” hitherto scheduled to be launched on her posthumous 22nd birthday on the 29th day of April, 2020.

    Lord, we can see that three years after Kikaose’s sad departure, most of her friends and mates in the university of Birmingham law degree program have now graduated with law degrees and some have passed the English Bar and Nigerian bar examinations and are now qualified as lawyers – a professional calling that Kikaose had aspired and worked assidously to attain.

    By now, Kikaose might have even been enrolled for the masters degree program in Havard university law school in fulfilment of the pact that we both made as she was commencing her law degree program in the University of Birmingham in 2015.

    “You get the grade, I get the fees”.

    But the lofty dreams that Kikaose held aloft for those two plus years that she spent in Birmingham, have become unfulfilled and unfulfilable after she suddenly received the Great Call from you, the Almighty God.

    The book written in Kikaose’s honor and aimed at helping present and future victims cope with loss and grief will be launched at a more auspicious time.

    Merciful God, we thank you for the priviledge

    to be able to wish Kikaose happy post humous birthday today. May the soul of our dearest Angel Kikaose, continue to Rest in Peace until we meet on the day of rapture.

    Sorely missed by:

    Magnus/Helen/Sopulu/Ebube

    Dad/Mum/Snr Sister/Jr Sister