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Tag: Magnus Onyibe

  • Detty December: It’s the currency devaluation, plain and simple! – By Magnus Onyibe

    Detty December: It’s the currency devaluation, plain and simple! – By Magnus Onyibe

    The phrase “It’s the economy, stupid” gained prominence during Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 U.S. presidential campaign, thanks to strategist James Carville. It served as a directive to campaign staff, urging them to focus on key economic issues to sway voters. In a similar vein, the title of this piece—“Detty December: It’s the Currency Devaluation, Plain and Simple!”—is aimed at highlighting a core factor behind the recent surge in economic activities and festivities in Nigeria during December: the significant devaluation of the naira.

    This devaluation prompted many Nigerians living abroad to return home to celebrate the holidays with their families, spurring an unprecedented wave of revelry and tourism. As I see it, this marks a tangible benefit of President Tinubu’s socioeconomic reforms. Without a doubt, December’s economic boom, particularly in Lagos, was fueled by diasporans’ spending and benefited various service providers, including hotels, car rental businesses, nightclubs, cruise operators, and food vendors. Even microeconomic activities saw funds trickling down the value chain, driven by the influx of diasporans escaping winter from overseas.

    Until now, the positive impact of this devaluation had gone unnoticed or unacknowledged by many, especially critics who dismissed my earlier piece, “Governing Nigeria is Tough, But Tinubu is Achieving Remarkable Progress” (published in ThisDay on Christmas Day, 2024). In that article, I suggested that the Nigerian economy was beginning to thaw. However, some skeptics failed to appreciate the role the weaker naira played in the remarkable economic activities witnessed during December, particularly in Lagos.

    With the naira trading between ₦1,166 and ₦1,750 to the dollar by December, the exchange rate was nearly four times what it was before Tinubu assumed office in May 2023. For diasporans, this provided a unique advantage. Take, for instance, a nurse or doctor in the UK who migrated (or “japa-ed”) and suddenly found their £1,000 paycheck converting to a minimum of ₦2 million at the rate of ₦2,000 to £1. Such individuals could easily afford a luxurious week-long stay in Nigeria, renting hotels or short-let apartments, hiring cars, enjoying boat cruises, dining out, and indulging in Lagos’ vibrant nightlife.

    This windfall spending by diasporans, as highlighted in a recent revealing report, underscores the vital role currency devaluation played in creating the economic dynamism of December 2024. It’s a phenomenon that further validates the optimism expressed in my earlier commentary about Nigeria’s evolving economic landscape.

    By now, many readers may have come across the insightful analysis of Nigeria’s economic activities during December 2024, particularly in Lagos. However, for those who might have missed this remarkable report—which has gone viral on social media and received significant attention in traditional media—I will summarize its key points to provide context for the discussion on how naira devaluation has driven positive economic outcomes.

    One of the reports, authored by Mr. Kayode Osebi, a consultant to the Lagos State government on taxation and revenue, was reportedly commissioned by the Lagos State government. While the accuracy of the research cannot be independently verified, the data aligns with the economic realities experienced during December. Below are the highlights:

    • Inbound Passenger Traffic: Between November 19 and December 26, 2024, Lagos Airport (MMA) recorded approximately 550,000 inbound passengers, 90% of whom were Nigerians in the diaspora visiting for leisure and tourism.
    • Tourist Origin and Destinations: The top five originating countries were the U.S., Canada, Italy, South Africa, and the U.K., while Lagos, Edo, Delta, Ondo, and Ogun States were the top destination states. Lagos alone hosted an estimated 1.2 million tourists, 60% of whom were local tourists from the South East and FCT.

    The report also noted that insecurity in the South East and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s presence in Lagos contributed to the influx of visitors.

    • Hotel Revenue: Hotel bookings generated an estimated ₦54 billion ($36 million) in revenue, with 15,000 confirmed bookings in December. Guest spending on food and beverages amounted to ₦13.5 billion ($8 million), while the top 15 hotels accounted for ₦10.5 billion in bookings.
    • Short-Let Apartments: Short-let apartment bookings were valued at ₦21 billion ($13 million) across 5,937 apartments, with an average daily rate of ₦120,000. Eko Atlantic ranked highest in residential bookings, while Banana Island recorded the highest estate bookings by value.
    • Nightlife and Recreation: The top 15 lounges and nightclubs generated ₦4.32 billion ($2.7 million) in sales, with daily revenues averaging ₦360 million and table spends averaging ₦1.2 million. Beach and resort bookings brought in an additional ₦4.5 billion ($2.8 million), with Ilashe/Ibese and Elegushi beach houses leading in revenue.

    Other highlights included:

    • Event centers earning ₦1.2 billion ($804,000) from 1,175 bookings.
    • Car rentals in the Eti-Osa area generating ₦1.5 billion ($937,500) from 750 high-end vehicle bookings, with daily rates reaching as high as ₦2 million.
    • An additional ₦20 billion ($13 million) in revenue from recreational activities such as artist bookings, fine dining, boat rentals, and DJ services.

    These figures, compiled by Mr. Osebi, align with another Lagos-based report titled The Economics of Detty December by GrowingNigeria.com. Both reports highlight the significant inflow of funds into the Nigerian economy during the festive period, particularly in Lagos, which served as the epicenter of the festivities.

    What stands out most is the sheer scale of money injected into the economy by Nigerians in the diaspora. Instead of enduring the cold winters in Europe and North America, many returned home to celebrate with their families, spurring economic growth. Their spending fueled a near-carnival atmosphere, attracting Afrobeat enthusiasts and tourists from around the world, reminiscent of how reggae music was popularized globally in the 1990s by icons like Bob Marley.

    The Bigger Picture.

    To fully appreciate the significance of Detty December, it is essential to consider its broader economic implications. A summary of the referenced report captures it succinctly:

    “Detty December has evolved from a simple season of family time and Christmas jollof into a global attraction for diasporans, tourists, and Afrobeat lovers. Whether through concerts, beach parties, weddings, or fashion shows, this cultural phenomenon has become a time to experience everything Nigeria has to offer. But beyond the good vibes, have you ever stopped to think about the economics of it all?”

    This lighthearted description transitions into a deeper discussion about the massive inflow of foreign exchange into the Nigerian economy. Once converted into naira, these funds were used for lifestyle and entertainment, creating significant economic benefits, particularly for Lagos.

    Clearly, Detty December in Nigeria did not commence in 2024. But the exceptional turnout and outcome of the celebrations last december have been exceptional. That is because of the naira devaluation under Tinubu’s watch. Not many commentators including the authors of the headlines hugging reports viewed the Detty December phenomenon from that prism. 

    Conventionally, nations prefer their currencies to be weak to boost exports and trade because the lower the value of a country’s currency, the more she will be exporting as lower costs attract importers. This can help stimulate economic growth, create jobs, and improve the trade balance.

    Critics may argue that Nigeria need not devalue her currency simply because it has nothing substantial to export, except crude/refined petroleum products which in anycase the price is being determined by the Organization of Oil Producing Countries,OPEC.

    I would argue that such a point of view is not exactly correct. That is because the huge number of Nigerian professionals in health care and Fintech migrating abroad are actually our exports. India and the Philipines generate enormous revenue  from their human resources working in the diaspora.

    The potentials of Nigeria’s  diaspora population is evidenced by the CBN data cited by the authors/researchers of the Detty December survey where it was noted that over $20 billion was remitted by diasporan Nigerians back home in 2022 and reflective  of how the economic landscape of Lagos was impacted for good last december.

    In light of the above, is it not preprostrous that there was a time when the agenda of some of our political leaders during campaigns was making the naira exhange rate to be at par with the dollar i.e N1 equal to $1?

    Thankfully, president Tinubu is not one of those romantizing  the so called good old days of the naira exchange rate being higher than the pound sterling and dollar. 

    In conclusion, Detty December has showcased the untapped potential of Nigeria’s tourism sector. With the right policies and infrastructure, the nation could transform this seasonal boom into a year-round driver of economic growth.

    Tragic December: Lessons for Nigeria’s Tourism Potential.

    Before diving further into the economic gains generated by Detty December in Nigeria, it’s important to reflect on the tragedies that marred the same period. In my column titled “Tragic December: Why Can’t Palliatives Be Distributed Dangote Way?”, I addressed the unfortunate loss of over 70 lives in stampedes during food and palliative distribution events in Ibadan, Abuja, and Okija between December 18 and 21.

    These avoidable tragedies underscore the urgent need for Nigeria’s national and subnational governments to enact laws regulating the distribution of aid to prevent such disasters in the future. Similar historical incidents, such as the 1929 St. Valentine’s Day Massacre in Chicago, prompted legal reforms in the U.S. to safeguard lives during public events. Nigerian lawmakers should take inspiration from such examples and establish regulations to prevent harm during public gatherings.

    The heartbreaking losses during December meant that many families were plunged into mourning during what should have been a time of celebration. This stark contrast highlights the need to ensure that future festivities are not tainted by avoidable tragedies.

    The Economics of Detty December.

    Returning to the report titled “The Economics of Detty December” by a firm known as GrowingNigeria, the document reveals the massive economic boost generated by festive activities, particularly in Lagos. The editors highlighted how Detty December has evolved into a major economic driver, attracting foreign currency and stimulating various industries.

    Key Insights:

    1. Diaspora Contributions: Nigerians in the diaspora, carrying foreign currencies, are central to the December economic boom. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reported diaspora remittances exceeding $20 billion in 2023, a significant portion of which flowed in during the festive season.
    2. Tourism and Spending: Dollars, pounds, and euros exchanged at airports and POS machines across Lagos fueled spending on flights, hotels, events, and cultural activities. Custom-made outfits (aso-ebi) for weddings and events further benefited local artisans.
    3. Ripple Effects: Industries such as hospitality, logistics, events, and even local crafts saw significant liquidity. As the report noted: “Detty December is more than a social calendar; it is a money-making machine.”

    Unlocking Nigeria’s Tourism Potential by replicating Detty December financial boom nation wide.

    The economic success of Detty December underscores Nigeria’s untapped tourism potential. However, the benefits are currently concentrated in Lagos. To fully harness tourism, the following steps must be prioritized:

    1. Addressing Insecurity: The lingering insecurity in Nigeria, particularly in the northern regions, must be tackled. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu must work to dissuade religious insurgents through persuasion and economic opportunities rather than relying solely on military force.
    • Example from Islamic Countries: Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, despite being Islamic nations, have leveraged tourism as a significant income source. For instance, Saudi Arabia earned $36 billion from tourism in 2023, contributing 11.5% to its GDP.
    1. Tourism as a Tool for Peace: By creating job opportunities in tourism, the government can redirect those involved in insurgency toward productive activities. Former militants could serve as tour guides or offer other services, as seen in the Middle East and North Africa.
    2. Diversifying Tourism Beyond Lagos: Authorities should promote tourism nationwide, leveraging Nigeria’s vast cultural and natural attractions. Lagos should remain a hub, but other states with rich histories and unique landmarks must also be developed as tourism destinations.

    Comparisons to Global Tourism Earnings.

    Despite Nigeria’s size and cultural wealth, its tourism revenue in 2022 was only $17.3 billion, representing just 3.6% of its GDP. This pales in comparison to:

    • Saudi Arabia: $36 billion (11.5% of GDP in 2023)
    • UAE: AED 220 billion (11.7% of GDP in 2023)
    • Egypt: $15 billion (2023)

    With strategic planning, improved security, and proper investments, Nigeria could significantly increase its tourism revenues and reduce reliance on oil.

    Detty December has proven that tourism is a viable path for Nigeria’s economic growth. The challenge now lies in extending its benefits nationwide while addressing the structural issues holding the sector back.

    We can emulate Egypt which is an African country deeply rooted in lslam yet they welcome foreigners as tourists to live amongst them.

    In Egypt for instance, there is a city known as Sham El Shek. It is a purpose built location for european tourists who have established their winter homes over there. Currently , owing to climate change effects, europe and north America -USA and Canada are frozen with the elderly ones anxious to relocate to countries with more clement weather.

    The weather and environment of Sham El Shek is not different from what is obtainable in Kaduna and kano states in Nigeria.

    There are even tourist locations such as Tiga Dam around Kaduna and Kano.

    Ordinarily, the  europeans spending their winter in Egypt could have done the same in Nigeria.

    But they are unable to do so owing to insecurity imposed on the areas by religous extremists and bandits including herders-famers engaging in violent clashes.

    The same panacea being proposed for the northern parts of Nigeria applies to the Unknown Gunmen , ravaging the south east also known as separatists and environmental rights activist who have become militants in the Niger Delta.

    The faith based institutions and priests in those regions also have a role to play in persuading the angry Nigerians engaged in rebellion against our country in multiple guises, that it is time to give peace a chance so that we can all harness the immense potentials of our beloved country for the greater good of all.

     

    Magnus Onyibe, a public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, (2003-2007)  sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.  

    To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng.

  • Banks’ excess profits tax: Cause-related marketing to the rescue? – By Magnus Onyibe

    Banks’ excess profits tax: Cause-related marketing to the rescue? – By Magnus Onyibe

    In response to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) proposal for a 70% tax on the excessive profits banks made from naira devaluation in 2023—profits which increased by at least 51% due to President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms—there has been a noticeable rise in banks’ philanthropic activities.

    The proposed excess profits tax, or windfall tax on foreign exchange gains, floated four months ago, appears to be part of the government’s strategy to address its declining revenue base. This is critical as the cost of governance continues to outpace income. For instance, Nigeria’s 2025 budget, totaling ₦49.7 trillion, relies on borrowing ₦13.08 trillion, while ₦15.33 trillion will be used to service the country’s enormous debt, which stands at an estimated ₦134.3 trillion. Only ₦34.82 trillion of the budget is expected to come from royalties and taxes.

    To reduce the country’s dependence on borrowing, President Tinubu brought in Taiwo Oyedele, a former PwC West Africa tax head, to overhaul Nigeria’s outdated tax administration system, which the president has described as a relic of colonial times. Oyedele’s assignment, aimed at strengthening the system and generating more revenue, aligns with the government’s goal of improving infrastructure and services through increased fiscal resources has been welcome by most Nigerians who are looking forward to a better country with more robust infratructure which only more revenue can faciliate.
    But there is a snag which is that some Nigerians are worried about the implications for the income accruing to their states from the federation account which they suspect will be reduced.

    The excess profits tax proposal seems to have been seen by the president’s tax reform committee, which includes private-sector experts, as a readily available source of additional revenue. Many of these experts, familiar with banks’ financial records through previous auditing roles, likely identified the windfall profits as an easy target.

    While banks initially resisted the proposal, they were cautious not to do so too publicly. Prominent figures like Olisa Agbakoba, a former Nigerian Bar Association president, and Mustafa Chike-Obi, chairman of the Bank Directors Association of Nigeria (BIDAN), voiced criticism. However, the Chartered Institute of Taxation of Nigeria (CITN), led by its president Chief Segun Agbeluyi, supported the move.

    Subsequently, United Bank for Africa (UBA) chairman Tony Elumelu and First City Monument Bank (FCMB) CEO Ladi Balogun engaged with the presidency in consultations. Their temperate and conciliatory approach during interviews, following the initial announcement of the tax, helped ease tensions between banks and their regulator, the CBN, shifting the debate away from public confrontation.

    The issue of the proposed excess profits tax was eventually moved from public discussion to private negotiations in boardrooms. This stands in sharp contrast to the uproar triggered by the four tax reform bills introduced by the Taiwo Oyedele-led committee, which are currently being debated in the National Assembly (NASS). These bills propose significant reforms to Nigeria’s colonial-era tax system, as highlighted by President Tinubu in his first media address since assuming office on May 29, 2023.

    Before the lawmakers went on their annual recess, the bills had sparked intense controversy, particularly among northern lawmakers who felt the proposed changes, especially to Value Added Tax (VAT), would disproportionately benefit the south. This contentious debate deepened the longstanding ethnic, religious, and regional divides between northern and southern legislators, overshadowing traditional party lines and amplifying non-partisan tensions.

    As the situation edged toward a potential crisis, a truce was brokered at the Aso Rock Villa. Legislators were urged to set aside their disagreements and take more time to review the bills thoroughly, enabling them to suggest reasonable amendments. President Tinubu, in numerous public statements, expressed his willingness to incorporate these adjustments before the bills’ final passage.

    The vigorous debate surrounding these tax reform bills raises questions about how much more contentious the removal of petrol subsidies might have been had it been subjected to a similar public debate. If the tax reforms have ignited such a high level of scrutiny, one can only imagine the political turmoil that might have ensued over discussions on petrol subsidies or the unification of the dual naira-foreign exchange window.

    This is where a very thin line separates leaders from being democrats or monarchies. That is because if as democrats they allow extensive and unending debates on critical development issues, action will never be taken. But if they ram policies down the throats of legislators , such leaders would be adorned with the toga of dictatorship or as one who is monarchical.

    Therein lies the dilema and a justification for the aphorism “ uneasy lies the head that wears the crown”
    And it is at times like that, that  Executive Orders which are easier ways of making laws while bypassing the legislators are viable options. But they are restrictive and tenous as they lack wide coverage and the longevity that are inherent in laws passed via a due legislative process.

    However, President Tinubu appears to recognize the critical importance of timing in politics. With a limited four-year term, he seems determined to implement key reforms early to gain public confidence and lay the groundwork for potential re-election.

    Returning to the matter of banks and the excess profits tax, it seems likely that a compromise was reached between the CBN and the banking sector, possibly facilitated by the Bankers’ Committee—a coalition of bank managing directors. This may explain why the excess profits tax has not yet been enforced, appearing instead to have been put on hold.

    One of the driving forces behind the foreign exchange gains tax is the urgent need to generate revenue to sustain governance amidst soaring costs. This includes ₦15.81 trillion allocated to debt servicing, with the country’s debt estimated to have reached ₦77 trillion by the time the Tinubu administration assumed office. Expanding the tax base has thus become a necessity.

    In this context, banks, under pressure to meet new capital base requirements of ₦500 billion for international operations and ₦200 billion for regional operations, may have directed the government’s tax authorities to explore the potential of taxing electronic transactions. This includes levying charges whenever Nigerians transfer or receive funds electronically in their bank accounts.

    The recently introduced Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL) requires banks to deduct ₦50 on electronic transfers or receipts of ₦10,000 or more. With 231.1 million bank accounts in Nigeria as of July last year, the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) estimates that this levy could generate as much as ₦484 billion over three years. While this has the potential to be a significant revenue source for the government, it raises the question: will it come at the expense of already overburdened Nigerians?

    Because the charges are relatively small—a minor percentage of the transaction amount—most bank account holders seem not to feel the pinch yet. This contrasts sharply with the public uproar that followed the removal of the petrol subsidy on May 29, 2023, which sent shockwaves through the economy. While the dust from the subsidy removal is gradually settling, the EMTL could create another source of tension between the government, banks, and the public. The question remains: is such friction unavoidable?

    It appears banks are aware of the backlash before the tax that is currently in abeyance was imposed and the potential backlash of the EMTL when the banking public become conscious of it. In what seems to be an attempt to improve their public image and foster goodwill among customers, they have embarked on large-scale Cause Related Marketing (CRM) campaigns in past four (4) months or so. These efforts aim to balance corporate interests with public good, blending their business strategies with socially beneficial initiatives.

    This is not the first time banks have faced criticism. When the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) proposed the excess profits tax on foreign exchange gains, I authored an article titled “Banks FX Gains Tax: How CSR Could Have Averted It”, published on August 13 last year. In the piece, I reflected on how proactive Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) measures might have softened the blow of public disapproval. For instance, banks had previously undertaken commendable initiatives, such as renovating the National Arts Theatre and contributing to the CACOVID initiative, which provided medical and economic relief during the pandemic.

    During the public launch of my book, “Leading From The Streets: Media Interventions By A Public Intellectual 1999–2019”, three months ago, I highlighted the stark contrast between the significant profits banks were declaring and the struggles of other sectors and ordinary Nigerians. I suggested that banks could demonstrate their commitment to the greater good by waiving certain fees, such as charges for SMS alerts and printed statements. Such small gestures could go a long way in fostering goodwill and mitigating criticism.

    “Corporate Nigeria demonstrated admirable resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic. Under the guidance of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), banks and major corporations, through the CACOVID initiative, provided essential support to Nigerians. This effort earned them public praise and bolstered confidence in their commitment to societal well-being.”

    I shared this perspective on May 8, several months before the proposal to amend the 2023 Finance Act on July 17, which the Senate approved on July 23. Had bank executives heeded earlier advice to ease the financial burden on their customers, the FX gains tax—now a significant source of concern for them—might never have been introduced. It seems this realization prompted banks to intensify their Cause Related Marketing (CRM) efforts, aligning their brands with various social issues affecting vulnerable communities, whether they are customers or not.

    Historically, Nigerian banks have been active in philanthropic initiatives. Available data shows that they have invested significantly in education, healthcare, economic empowerment, and environmental sustainability. For example:

    •Education: First Bank of Nigeria established the First Bank Education Endowment Scheme to provide scholarships for undergraduates. Similarly, Zenith Bank launched the Zenith Bank Scholarship Scheme, and GTBank set up its own scholarship initiative to support university students.

    •Healthcare: Access Bank initiated the Maternal Health Services Support (MHS) program to improve maternal healthcare, while the UBA Foundation created the UBA Health Initiative to deliver medical aid and health education to communities.

    •Economic Empowerment: Stanbic IBTC introduced the Business Incubator Program to foster entrepreneurship and small business development. Fidelity Bank also rolled out the SME Financing Scheme to provide financial support to small and medium-sized enterprises.

    •Environmental Sustainability: Ecobank developed the Forests for Life program to promote sustainable forest management and conservation.

    Despite these longstanding Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) efforts, public perception of banks remains largely negative. This is partly because banks continue to generate massive profits during periods of widespread economic hardship, like in 2024, when firms were shutting down and individuals struggled due to the impact of socio-economic reforms.

    Banks have increasingly realized that CSR alone is not enough to earn public trust. It’s not just about supporting communities but also about visibly engaging with them—a principle that CRM embodies. Unlike CSR, which encompasses broader goals like philanthropy, sustainability, and ethical practices, CRM is a targeted marketing strategy. It seeks to foster an emotional connection between the public and a brand by aligning with specific societal causes.

    In light of the proposed tax, banks have shifted their focus from merely advertising their products to associating their brands with public causes. For example:

    •UBA has expanded its educational support to include training for the visually impaired in the use of Braille, showcased through televised campaigns.

    •Access Bank and Fidelity Bank have also reoriented their advertising strategies over the past four months to highlight their support for social causes rather than solely promoting products and services.
    Hitherto the sponsoring of Fashion Week by Gtbank, Tech Week by Zenithbank and Marathan Race by Access bank annually in Lagos had been the most immersive experience of CSR involving those tier -1 banks with their publics.

    But banks have learnt that by embedding their brands into social goodwill, they aim to improve their image and strengthen their relationship with the Nigerian public. However, time will tell if this goodwill can endure. The recently introduced Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL), though currently unnoticed by many due to its modest charge of ₦50 per transaction, could soon spark public dissatisfaction. If this happens, banks might once again find themselves at odds with their customers, as was the case with the unpopular fees for SMS alerts.

    As the conventional wisdom goes: ‘a stitch in time saves nine’

     

    Magnus Onyibe, a public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, (2003-2007)  sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.  
    To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng.

  • Tragic December: Why can’t palliatives be distributed the Dangote way? – By Magnus Onyibe

    Tragic December: Why can’t palliatives be distributed the Dangote way? – By Magnus Onyibe

    December in Nigeria is typically associated with end-of-year festivities: corporate parties, funfairs, family gatherings, concerts, and musical performances. Its celebratory nature has become so prominent that Gen-Zs and Millennials coined the term ‘Detty December’ to capture the excitement.

    However, this December has not only been “Detty” but tragically unforgettable for all the wrong reasons. For me, this period is heart-wrenching as the year ends on a grim note with the loss of at least 70 lives—many of them children—due to stampedes during poorly organized food and palliative distribution events.

    It is deeply unsettling to know that innocent lives, through no fault of their own, were lost in Ibadan (Southwest), Abuja (North Central), and Okija (Southeast). These tragedies stemmed from the failure to properly plan and manage the distribution of aid. Instead of celebrating the season, affected families are left mourning their loved ones.

    As someone who has experienced personal loss, detailed in my book “Beyond Loss and Grief: The Story of Kikaose Ebiye-Onyibe”, I empathize with the grieving families. My book, written after the untimely death of my 18 years-old daughter Kikaose in 2017, serves as a guide to coping with loss. I would like to gift a copy to each family affected by these recent tragedies.

    The events leading to this tragic December began in Ibadan, where approximately 35 children died while attempting to claim a N5,000 palliative offered by a faith-based organization. This catastrophe, arising from a stampede attributed to inadequate crowd control, marked the beginning of a sorrowful chain of events on 18 december.

    Before the nation could process this tragedy, another incident occurred on same day in Abuja, where 10 people lost their lives during a similar scramble for aid organized by another faith-based group. As Nigerians were still reeling from these events, on 21 december, (barely 3 days after the first two) a third disaster unfolded in Okija, Anambra State, where 22 individuals died while trying to receive food from a philanthropic individual.

    These heartbreaking incidents highlight a glaring issue: palliative distribution can—and should—be conducted in ways that do not result in tragedy. Instead, what should have been acts of kindness and goodwill ended in sorrow, tears, and blood—a phrase immortalized in the protest song by Fela Kuti condemning military brutality in the 1990s. It is a cruel irony that these recent tragedies echo the sentiment of that song, even though the events were meant to celebrate humanity and compassion.

    The reality is disheartening: this December will be remembered not for its festivities but for the needless loss of lives—70 Nigerians whose potential contributions to the nation were cut short. Among them were children who could have grown into the likes of Albert Einstein, but instead, their lives were prematurely ended in a bid to receive aid.

    Philanthropy is as old as human civilization.

    From ancient Athens to the modern day, acts of kindness have been a cornerstone of society. Interestingly, one of the earliest recorded philanthropists was the Greek philosopher and mathematician Pythagoras, who founded the Pythagorean Society in Croton, Italy, around 530 BC. His organization provided food, shelter, and education to the poor, setting an example of structured and impactful giving. Perhaps, his fame for his mathematical prowess overshadowed his philantropy.

    Nigerians have been known to be philantropy as they have always been their brother’s keeper. So, the acts of giving that turned deadly are not the only occasions that the rich has reached out to poor. The Covid-19 pandemic and consequential lockdown and economic meltdown  period are typical examples when public spirited Nigerians and organizations showed acts of kindness to the vulnerable by setting up food kitchens to serve the poor. Typically Nigerians even mark their birthdays by opting to share food to the less priviledged in orphanages and public places such as motor parks which are habitats to  those living rough.

    So, acts of kindness come naturally to most Nigerians. But the snag appear to be the unstructured ways in which the commendable arts of kindness are being displayed resulting in fatalities to the beneficiaries. Remarkably, large corporations such as Dangote Group has been engaging in benevolent activities in Nigeria on grand scales without recording any catastrophe.

    This raises an important question: Why can’t Nigeria adopt better-organized methods of distributing palliatives, such as the Dangote Way?

    It is perhaps appropriate at this juncture to dwell a bit on philantropy and its effect on society.

    The Role of Structured Philanthropy in Preventing Tragedy

    Historically, philanthropy has been an integral part of society, especially in aiding the less privileged. Over time, it has also become a way for wealthy individuals and organizations to enhance their public image through the establishment of charitable foundations.

    Today, it is not uncommon for ethical investors to prioritize firms or individuals with a demonstrated commitment to societal good. Examples include globally recognized organizations like the Carnegie Foundation, Rockefeller Foundation, Ford Foundation, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, all of which have established themselves as forces for good worldwide.

    In Africa, prominent figures have followed suit. Aliko Dangote, the continent’s richest man and founder of Dangote Refinery, established the Dangote Foundation. Similarly, Tony Elumelu, a successful entrepreneur in the banking and energy sectors, launched the Tony Elumelu Foundation that has Africa wide coverage. These foundations adopt structured and impactful philanthropic models inspired by practices in the industrialized world.

    Other Nigerian billionaires, such as Chief Mike Adenuga, owner of Globacom, and Femi Otedola, founder of Geregu Power, are also known for their generosity. While their philanthropic contributions run into billions, their efforts are often less structured. Nonetheless, both Adenuga and Otedola are widely celebrated for their exceptional charity, with Adenuga gaining continental recognition due to Globacom’s footprint across Africa. In fact that is why Mike Adenuga is popularly referred to as the spirit of Africa.

    This historical overview underscores that philanthropy, as a concept, is as old as civilization itself. It thrives globally because it is structured and draws on lessons from past experiences. Unfortunately, in Nigeria, the lack of organized and professionalized philanthropic efforts often turns acts of goodwill into sources of tragedy rather than joy.

    Invariably, the  solution lies in adopting proven strategies for planning and execution, as exemplified by organizations like the Dangote Foundation. Recently, the foundation successfully implemented its National Rice Relief Programme, distributing over one million 10kg bags of rice across all 774 local government areas in Nigeria from March to early April 2024. This initiative, valued at N15 billion, was well-organized and garnered widespread praise from Nigerians.

    Comparing this effort to the chaotic and tragic distribution of N5,000 in Ibadan, food sharing in Abuja, and palliatives in Okija highlights the critical role of organization in philanthropy. While Dangote’s large-scale distribution involved meticulous planning and professional execution, the poorly managed events in these other locations led to preventable fatalities.

    The success of the Dangote Foundation’s initiative demonstrates that planning and professionalism are non-negotiable in philanthropy. As such, this discourse aims to advocate for legislative action to establish guidelines for philanthropic activities in Nigeria, ensuring that future acts of charity are executed safely and efficiently. It boggles the mind that wedding parties planners/organizers in Nigeria make provision for drivers of the dignitaries by providing vouchers for them  to pick up their food to avoid the scramble that could lead to stampede, yet pallitiatves  distributors do not deem it to spread their milk of human kindness in any other way than gathering humans together in tight spaces and without taking into account the potential numbers of responders viz-a-viz the items available to give away.

    Be that as it may, it is worth noting that stampedes resulting from poorly planned food distribution events are not unique to Nigeria. Similar tragedies have occurred globally:

    • Tanzania (2015): A stampede in Dar es Salaam during food distribution led to five deaths.

    • South Africa (2013): Two people died in Johannesburg during a stampede at a food center.

    • Kenya (2017): A food distribution event in Nairobi resulted in one fatality.

    These incidents emphasize the universal need for proper planning and crowd management during such events. By learning from global best practices and enforcing regulations, Nigeria can prevent similar tragedies in the future.

    Tragic Lessons from Philanthropy:

    The Need for Organized

    Frameworks in Nigeria

    Similar to Africa, Asia has also witnessed tragic outcomes during palliative distributions. For instance:

    • India (2013): A stampede during a food distribution event in New Delhi resulted in two deaths.

    • Pakistan (2014): During Ramadan, a stampede in Karachi claimed two lives.

    • Bangladesh (2018): A food distribution event in Dhaka led to one fatality.

    In the Middle East, similar incidents have occurred:

    • Saudi Arabia (2015): A stampede during the Hajj pilgrimage in Mecca, involving

    food and water distribution, resulted in over 2,400 deaths.

    • Yemen (2016): A food distribution event in Sana’a left two dead.

    Even South America has not been spared:

    • Brazil (2013): A stampede during food distribution in Rio de Janeiro led to one

    death.

    While food distribution stampedes are a global phenomenon, Nigeria’s disproportionate death toll stands out alarmingly. In just three days—December 18 to 21, 2024—three separate stampedes in Ibadan, Okija, and Abuja led to the tragic loss of approximately 70 lives, a stark contrast to the single-digit fatalities seen in other countries.

    This glaring disparity points to a lack of organizational planning, risk assessment, and safety measures, rather than poverty alone. For instance, the Dangote Foundation’s National Rice Relief Programme  nationwide back in february and Tony Elumelu’s distribution of 1,800 bags of rice in Delta State during the current festive period were conducted safely. Similarly, President Tinubu has distributed palliatives during this festive season and for over 25 years without any loss of life. These examples underscore the importance of meticulous planning and professional execution in avoiding such disasters.

    Experts identify common factors leading to stampedes as Overcrowding,Poor crowd control, Insufficient safety measures, and Lack of planning and coordination as well as

    Desperation due to limited resources.

    Unfortunately, all these factors were prevalent in the recent Nigerian tragedies. For example, in February 2024, a stampede during rice distribution by the Nigerian Customs Service claimed seven lives after supplies ran out. These incidents highlight the urgent need for better planning and regulations in definitive manner to prevent future tragedies.

    Lessons from Global Practices

    Globally, permits are often required for events involving large crowds to ensure public safety and order. In the United States, such requirements are rooted in lessons from tragic events like the 1929 St. Valentine’s Day Massacre. Permits serve several purposes:

    1. Public Safety: Authorities assess risks and implement measures to prevent accidents.

    2. Accountability: Event organizers are held responsible for mishaps.

    3. Regulation of Public Spaces: Permits help manage disruptions to normal

    activities.

    4. Emergency Response: Authorities can prepare for medical, fire, and security needs.

    5. Community Input: Residents and businesses are notified and allowed to provide feedback.

    6. Legal Framework: Regulations ensure freedom of assembly is exercised responsibly.

    Adopting similar frameworks in Nigeria could help prevent the kind of tragedies seen in December 2024. Arising from the above lawmakers must urgently enact laws governing the organization of palliative and food distribution events, mandating professional planning, crowd control measures, and risk assessments.

    A Call to Action

    It is unsurprising that the organizers of the recent tragic events in Nigeria did not violate any existing laws, as no regulations currently govern such activities. As such, this  lack of oversight highlights the need for urgent legislative intervention to ensure the safety and dignity of future philanthropic efforts.

    Therefore, each of Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory must develop and codify regulations that reflect local dynamics, ensuring that no charity event becomes a source of mourning. As Napoleon Hill wisely said, “Every adversity, every failure, every heartache carries with it the seed of an equal or greater benefit.”

    The benefit from these tragic events must be a collective resolve to prevent future occurrences. May 2025 be a year of safety, progress, and lessons learned.

     

    Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government (2003–2007),sent this piece from Lagos.

    To continue with the dialogue on the matter under reference and more: pls visit www.magnum.ng.

  • Governing Nigeria is tough, but Tinubu is achieving remarkable progress – By Magnus Onyibe

    Governing Nigeria is tough, but Tinubu is achieving remarkable progress – By Magnus Onyibe

    The popular saying, “The morning foretells the evening,” seems to defy logic in Nigeria’s case. The economy, which turned frosty after President Bola Tinubu introduced radical reforms 18 months ago, now appears to be thawing rather than worsening, contrary to the predictions of critics.

    Rather than witnessing a continued decline in living standards, as many feared, Nigeria seems to be gradually recovering from decades of stagnation. The current glimmers of hope—despite the widespread discontent initially caused by Tinubu’s reforms, such as the removal of petrol subsidies and the unification of multiple foreign exchange rates, which led to a sharp naira devaluation—suggest that the hardships Nigerians endured may finally be easing.

    The steady improvement in the economy, driven by the president’s Renewed Hope agenda, appears to validate the Machiavellian notion that “the end justifies the means.” That is because the once-frozen economy, disrupted by these difficult but necessary reforms, is now showing signs of recovery.

    This progress may also reflect Nigerians’ gradual acceptance of the transition from a subsidy-dependent consumption economy to a production-based one. The assertion above is validated by the fact that by plugging longstanding financial leakages and laying the foundation for harnessing untapped economic potential, the administration is driving a paradigm shift that promises to benefit Nigeria in the long term.

    What the above scenario indicates is that, the Renewed Hope agenda, though painful in the short term, seems to be yielding lasting benefits as Nigerians adjust to the adage “no pain, no gain,” and the criticisms that resulted in branding Tinubu as “T-Pain” early in his administration are waning. In fact, increasingly, people are beginning to appreciate the broader vision behind President Tinubu’s policies and their potential to serve the majority’s interests over time.

    This shift in public perception is evident in the stabilizing sociopolitical and economic landscape. For instance, the naira-to-dollar exchange rate, which had reached a staggering ₦1,750/$1, has improved to roughly ₦1,600–₦1,650/$1. This movement is closing in on the ₦1,500/$1 target set by Tinubu in the 2025 appropriation bill presented to the National Assembly on December 15.

    What makes these positive developments even more noteworthy is that they are happening less than 18 months into Tinubu’s presidency. While many anti-Tinubu politicians and citizens clamored for immediate results from his reforms barely a year into office, advocacy from some of us and the voices of the likes of  Nobel Laureate Prof. Wole Soyinka, who called for patience and endured criticism as government sympathizers, have been vindicated.

    Clearly, the early signs of recovery are evidence of the principle that reform outcomes require time to reach fruition. Hence in less than two years—often considered a reasonable benchmark for policy impact—Nigeria’s economic indicators are shifting. Like traffic lights, these signals are moving from red to amber, with the potential to turn green as Tinubu approaches his second year in office in May 2025.

    Positive Socioeconomic Developments Indicate Progress Despite Initial Hardship

    Recent socioeconomic improvements in Nigeria highlight the impact of a series of bold policy actions that hold significant potential to alleviate the hardships many Nigerians have endured due to reform-induced challenges. These developments, signaling economic recovery, include:

    ✓ Reduction in pump prices for petrol and diesel.

    ✓ Strengthening of the naira against foreign currencies.

    ✓ Decline in religious insurgency and banditry.

    ✓ Decrease in herder-farmer clashes and overall insecurity.

    ✓ Significant reduction in crude oil theft, coupled with increased oil production and exports, boosting foreign exchange reserves.

    ✓ A rise in foreign direct investment, exemplified by Shell’s commitment to invest $5 billion in the Bonga deep-sea oil asset.

    ✓ Introduction of a ₦70,000 minimum wage for federal civil servants.

    ✓ Adoption of compressed natural gas (CNG) as a less expensive alternative to petrol and diesel for mass transportation.

    ✓ Establishment of the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) to enable indigent Nigerians to pursue higher education by covering tuition fees and living expenses, thereby democratizing access to education.

    These positive indicators reflect President Tinubu’s commitment to managing Nigeria’s complex economy, which often defies conventional economic principles. However, it is important to acknowledge the significant sacrifices Nigerians have endured since the administration began implementing its reform agenda on May 29, 2023.

    One of the most recent developments that offers hope is the announcement on December 18, 2024, of a ₦200 reduction in the price of diesel by Dangote Refinery, lowering the cost from ₦1,200 to ₦1,000 per liter. Similarly, last month, the refinery reduced the price of petrol (PMS) by ₦20 per liter.

    Given the critical role of petrol and diesel in facilitating transportation, powering factories, and supplying electricity to homes and businesses, these price reductions are expected to positively impact the economy. While the immediate effects of these reductions are not yet apparent—evidenced by the latest Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report showing inflation rising from 33.88% to 34.60%—their long-term benefits are anticipated to ease the economic burden on Nigerians.

    In essence, while the price reductions in these essential commodities (PMS and AGO) are yet to fully translate into tangible benefits, they are expected to lower transportation costs and provide relief to Nigerians struggling under severe economic hardship. However, these benefits may take time to materialize, as some fuel stations have yet to adjust their prices to reflect the reductions announced by Dangote Refinery.

    Once the price adjustments are fully implemented, subsequent NBS reports may capture a downward trend in inflation rates. For now, food inflation remains high, driven by rising prices of staples such as onions, tomatoes, and peppers. These increases can be attributed to seasonal demand during the festive season, high transportation costs due to fuel price hikes, and other supply chain disruptions.

    While these developments indicate progress, more time is needed for the full benefits of Tinubu’s reforms to materialize. Nevertheless, they offer hope for greater economic stability and relief for Nigerians in the near future.

    Tinubu’s Economic and Sociopolitical Strategies Show Promise Amid Challenges

    Key drivers of Nigeria’s current high food inflation include rising transportation costs, seasonal demand, and supply chain disruptions, which have made basic cooking ingredients unaffordable for many vulnerable Nigerians. However, as the reduced costs of petrol and diesel take effect, and with the festive season coming to an end, coupled with continued security improvements, inflation may see a significant drop by the first quarter of 2025. While it may not reach the 15% target set by the Director of Budget in the Presidency, my good friend Dr. Tanimu Yakubu, the concerted efforts of various government departments—from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to the Ministry of Finance—make it unlikely to remain at its current elevated levels.

    Notably, Nigeria’s debt service ratio has dropped to 65%, down from 97% when President Tinubu assumed office 18 months ago, just as the globetroting allegations against President has been vitiated by the fact that lndian Prime minister Naranda Modi and German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier have reciprocated Tinubu’s visits.

    These are heads of strategic countries that are major trading and technology  partners and they were in Nigeria to discuss partnerships that would benefit our nation tremendously.

    That said, some analysts have suggested wrongly or rightly  that Dangote Refinery’s recent price cuts for petroleum products may be part of a competitive strategy against importers. Nonetheless, businesses with significant investments—such as Dangote, which staked $20 billion in a state-of-the-art refinery—often start by charging high prices to recoup their investments. Similar trends were observed in Nigeria’s telecommunications sector, where companies spent heavily on cutting-edge technology and spectrum licenses, making SIM cards initially expensive before prices dropped significantly. With additional refineries, such as the NNPC facilities in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna, gradually resuming operations, fuel prices are expected to decline further, aligning with earlier assurances that l gave to the public that although in Nigeria we believe what goes up hardly comes down, petroleum prices will surely come down from their current high.

    As we all can attest , efforts to stabilize the naira against foreign currencies have also gained traction. A bill to prohibit the use of foreign currencies for local transactions, such as school fees and rent, has advanced significantly in the National Assembly. Combined with increased local refining capacity of petroleum products, this measure is expected to reduce domestic demand for foreign exchange which hitherto channeled into fuel imports.

    Notably, the CBN reported an increase in foreign reserves from $38.3 billion in September to $40.08 billion by November 7, 2024. This boost, the highest in two years, provides sufficient coverage for nine months of imports and supports further currency stabilization.

    Overall, President Tinubu’s bold economic policies, such as subsidy removal and currency devaluation, have spurred these positive changes. Despite the immediate hardships, these reforms are beginning to yield results, with further momentum anticipated from recently proposed tax reform bills currently under review in the National Assembly. These initiatives suggest a comprehensive approach to economic reform, unlike past efforts, such as the introduction of Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) in mid 1980s under Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, which adopted a piecemeal approach.

    If the current reforms are managed effectively, these policies that l had coined “Tinubunomics” but did not go down well Aso Rock Villa, could provide long-term relief for Nigerians. The concept of “Tinubunomics” was a focus when Tinubu’s economic policies were reviewed on 8th May during the launch of my book, Leading From the Streets: Media Interventions by a Public Intellectual, 1999–2019. At the event, the theme “Tinubunomics: What’s Working, What’s Not, and Why” was explored and it generated a heated panel discussion. One panelist vexatiously claimed the economy was in “the red,” and the statement went viral. Today, it is unlikely that the same claim would be made, as the unfolding effects of the reform measures indicate long-term potential for recovery and relief.

    On the sociocultural front, Tinubu has taken steps to address allegations of marginalization and promote inclusivity. For instance, renaming the National Arts Theatre after Professor Wole Soyinka which drew critism with those against it alledging nepotism and the naming of University of Abuja after General Yakubu Gowon, an Angas man from north central Nigeria zone underscores a commitment to equity and merit. Similarly, the appointment of Sylvester Nwakuche, an Igbo man, as Acting Controller General of Immigration highlights Tinubu’s efforts to correct perceived ethnic imbalances in federal appointments.

    In addition to that, the recent release of some Igbo youths detained for IPOB-related offenses signals a thawing relationship between the federal government and Biafran agitators.

    To further cement national unity, Tinubu could consider releasing IPOB leader Nnamdi Kanu as a gesture of goodwill during the yuletide season. Such a move could resonate with the Igbo community, much like Muhammadu Buhari’s posthumous honor for MKO Abiola in 2018 by changing democracy day from 29 May to 12 June the day the presidential election was presumably won by MKO Abiola but was annuled by the military, won acclaim from the Yoruba people.

    Looking ahead, 2025 holds promise for economic recovery and sociopolitical stability, provided Tinubu remains committed to his reform agenda and he woos and receives more support from a broader spectrum of Nigerians. Frankly, as the nation navigates these challenging times, there is hope that brighter days lie ahead.

    On that note of optimism, I wish Nigerians and readers worldwide a Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year.

     

    Magnus Onyibe is an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government (2003–2007).

    For further discussions, please visit www.magnum.ng.

  • Obstruction to passage of tax reform bills – By Magnus Onyibe

    Obstruction to passage of tax reform bills – By Magnus Onyibe

    Public enlightenment typically precedes the introduction of new policies to facilitate understanding, acceptance, and implementation. This is why companies seeking to go public on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) prepare an information memorandum to educate stakeholders and the general public.

    Unfortunately, the current government has repeatedly overlooked this fundamental principle, as seen in several instances. These include the abrupt removal of the petrol subsidy on May 29, 2023, the unification of the dual foreign exchange regime, inadequate awareness of the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), and the ongoing debate over tax reform bills currently before the Senate. This lack of proactive communication has fueled widespread public discontent.

    It seems no lessons were learned from the strong resistance Nigerians mounted following the subsidy removal and the naira’s devaluation. The tax reform initiative is now being pursued without adequate public sensitization, resulting in growing resentment and criticism of the administration.

    What makes this backlash even more surprising is that these policies, including the reform initiatives, are intended to serve the long-term interests of the masses.

    Historically, inadequate communication about taxation has had dire consequences, such as the infamous Aba Women’s Riots of 1929, sparked by opposition to taxes imposed by the colonial government. To prevent a repeat of such events, today’s leaders must address misinformation and disinformation that could derail the noble intentions behind the tax reform bills under consideration.

    A comparison between the Aba Women’s Riots and later instances of resistance to government policies highlights the importance of effective communication. For example, during General Ibrahim Babangida’s administration in 1984/85, the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) gained public acceptance largely because it was preceded by a nationwide debate. This debate informed citizens about SAP as a viable alternative to an IMF loan, earning their buy-in.

    This demonstrates the power of communication as a tool for bridging the gap between leadership and followership. Nigerians’ acceptance of SAP is largely credited to the exceptional work of the National Orientation Agency (NOA) under the leadership of Professor Jerry Gana. His efforts to align Nigerians with the government’s agenda stand as a testament to the critical role of public enlightenment in ensuring policy success.

    The recent debates in both the House of Representatives and the Senate over the proposed tax reform bills highlight a troubling lack of alignment among lawmakers. The discord within the legislature raises questions about how much the public understands these bills, given that even lawmakers appear divided.

    A striking example is the apparent contradiction among principal officers of the Senate. Deputy Senate President Jubril Barau claimed the debate on the tax reform bills had been suspended, while Senate President Godswill Akpabio and Senate Leader Opeyemi Bamidele indicated otherwise. This public display of inconsistency undermines the credibility of the Senate, exposing it to ridicule and unnecessary criticism—damage that could easily have been avoided if the leadership had presented a unified stance.

    Ideally, internal deliberations should have harmonized their positions before addressing the public. For instance, Barau’s statement could have been clarified as a directive for the Senate committee to temporarily pause its work while the 10-member ad hoc committee consulted with the executive branch, where the bills originated. Instead, the lack of cohesion made the debate resemble a regional contest between the South and the North, creating unnecessary tension.

    This situation reflects a broader issue: politicians often dedicate immense effort to campaigning and engaging with the public before elections, only to neglect meaningful communication after securing office. Andrew Cuomo, a former governor of New York, captured this irony with the phrase, “Campaign in poetry, govern in prose.” While campaigns are filled with aspirational rhetoric designed to captivate voters, governance requires clear, detailed communication about policy implementation—something Nigerian politicians frequently fail to deliver.

    The contrast between poetic campaigning and prosaic governing becomes clear when examining the nature of poetry versus prose. Poetry is characterized by its evocative, imaginative qualities, while prose relies on straightforward, factual language. This shift from inspiration to practicality often leaves politicians reluctant to engage deeply with constituents during their tenure, perhaps to avoid accountability for campaign promises.

    This lack of effective communication is one of the core challenges of governance in Nigeria. Chinua Achebe famously attributed Nigeria’s problems to leadership deficiencies in his seminal work “The Trouble With Nigeria,” and the ongoing debate on tax reforms is yet another example of this shortfall.

    The tax reform debate has been unnecessarily framed as a regional battle for dominance, overshadowing the actual merits of the proposed reforms. Instead of focusing on the technical and legal aspects, my interest lies in reframing the narrative to emphasize the importance of effective communication in fostering unity and shared prosperity. As a democracy advocate and development strategist, I believe a holistic approach is critical for addressing national issues.

    Effective communication is the cornerstone of any successful partnership, whether in governance, business, or even marriage. It serves as the lubricant that keeps relationships functioning smoothly—a quality Nigeria desperately needs in its multi-ethnic, multi-regional context.

    As the legislative process continues, it is crucial to evaluate the tax reform bills through the lens of national unity and collective progress, rather than as a divisive contest between the North and the South. By prioritizing effective communication and collaboration, lawmakers can steer the debate toward outcomes that benefit all Nigerians, reinforcing the vision of One Nigeria

    It is encouraging to note that, according to tax experts, the proposed reforms could bring significant relief to ordinary Nigerians, particularly those disproportionately affected by Value Added Tax (VAT). As experts point out, VAT—commonly referred to as a consumption tax—impacts the poor most heavily because they spend a larger portion of their income on basic needs like food. Under the new tax regime, small and medium-scale enterprises with capitalization below ₦50 million and individuals earning less than ₦80,000 monthly are exempt. Meanwhile, large corporations and high-income earners will shoulder the burden through Company Income Tax (CIT) and Personal Income Tax (PIT).

    Ironically, the very groups that stand to benefit the most from these reforms are largely unaware of the relief measures, leading them to resist rather than embrace the changes. This lack of awareness underscores the failure of effective advocacy and communication around the bills, leaving the nation divided over whether to accept or reject the reforms currently before the legislature.

    To address the impasse, a political solution is being pursued through the establishment of a Senate ad hoc committee led by Minority Leader Abba Moro. This committee is tasked with engaging the Attorney General of the Federation, Lateef Fagbemi, to resolve contentious issues. This collaborative approach aims to clarify “grey areas” and build consensus, similar to how the “Doctrine of Necessity” was invoked in 2010 to stabilize governance after the sudden death of President Umaru Yar’Adua.

    Unfortunately, before this attempt at resolution, the debate over the reforms had taken on a divisive tone, with some lawmakers framing it as a North versus South issue. A key point of contention lies in the proposed VAT sharing formula. For instance, data from the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that while Lagos generates approximately 55% of VAT, the entire northern region contributes only about 25%.

    This disparity highlights the untapped economic potential of northern states. For example, Nasarawa State, located near Abuja, is rich in solid minerals like lithium and tin, as well as agricultural produce such as citrus fruits. If properly harnessed, these resources could drive industrialization and significantly boost VAT contributions. Lithium and tin, for instance, could be processed into batteries and other high-demand products for electric vehicles and advanced technologies. Similarly, agricultural processing facilities for citrus fruits could mirror Florida’s thriving juice industry in the United States.

    Zamfara State provides another example, with its substantial gold deposits attracting illicit mining operations. With the proposed VAT reforms, states will retain 60% of the VAT generated within their borders, incentivizing governments to formalize and secure these industries. By establishing local processing plants, states can not only create jobs but also earn additional CIT and PIT revenues, alongside VAT.

    Despite these opportunities, many state governments have been reluctant to attract investors. States like Lagos, which hosts a significant share of Nigeria’s industrial and service sectors, have reaped substantial benefits from being business-friendly. In contrast, most states impose burdensome taxes on startups, stifling economic growth. A few exceptions, such as the former Edo Governor Godwin Obaseki, current Nasarawa Governor Abdullahi Sule, and Enugu Governor Peter Mbah, have taken proactive steps to foster business-friendly environments.

    If the tax reform bills are passed into law, states will likely intensify efforts to attract both local and foreign investors. For example, governors could elevate the role of the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) in their states to ensure businesses register locally and establish headquarters within their jurisdictions. By doing so, they can maximize their VAT derivation and other tax revenues.

    Lagos’s dominance in VAT generation stems from factors like superior infrastructure, multiple ports, and its position as Nigeria’s economic hub. However, underutilized ports in states like Delta could benefit from partnerships with nations like Singapore, which specialize in blue economy development. Similarly, addressing insecurity in northern states would encourage farming and entrepreneurship, unlocking their vast economic potential.

    Ultimately, the tax reform bills offer an opportunity to accelerate national development by incentivizing states to harness their unique resources. Rather than viewing the reforms through a divisive lens, lawmakers and stakeholders should adopt a more pragmatic perspective, focusing on shared prosperity and regional economic growth. By leveraging these reforms to attract investment and boost local production, Nigeria can create a more balanced and inclusive economy.

    How can we forget the horrifying act of terrorists who ruthlessly killed eleven farmers in Sokoto State for daring to work on their farms? Or the disturbing incident in Bauchi, where a tomato factory partnership between Nigerian and Spanish entrepreneurs faced terrorist threats, with expatriates narrowly escaping with their lives? What happened to the once-thriving cotton and textile mills in Kaduna, established to process cotton from the Funtua region and groundnut oil from the north?

    In the past, there was healthy competition between Nigeria’s regions—North, West, and East—each region aggressively cultivating and processing cash crops like cotton and groundnuts in the North, cocoa in the West, and oil palm and coal in the East. This was possible because states could retain 50% of their earnings. However, when the system transitioned to a federal structure in 1978, local production slowed drastically as states became overly dependent on the federal government’s allocation, neglecting their internal revenue generation efforts.

    This trend worsened as insecurity ravaged northern Nigeria, further hindering industrial activities. In addition, government policies, such as import substitution, made local textile and oil production uncompetitive, allowing foreign products to flood the market and stifle local industries. Consequently, the poor business environment contributed to the North generating only 25% of the nation’s VAT, a disproportionately small share given that the region has 19 states compared to 15 in the South, where the majority of VAT is generated. Lagos, in particular, contributes the lion’s share.

    Despite these challenges, the North need not despair. The current situation should serve as a wake-up call for northern governments and entrepreneurs to revive the industries that once flourished. This is especially important as the Supreme Court is likely to rule in favor of Lagos and Rivers States, which are in court seeking to retain 100% of the VAT generated within their borders.

    Rather than adopting a defeatist, combative approach, northern leaders should embrace the impending changes and think entrepreneurially. After all, Kano was once the heart of the prosperous trans-Saharan trade. The north should abandon its divisive mindset and instead focus on collective progress. Northern leaders should intensify efforts to address insecurity, which has stifled the establishment of industries, and engage citizens in a dialogue about the importance of industry for economic growth.

    Religious and traditional leaders in the North have a critical role to play in educating the public. They must help their communities understand that local industries will create jobs and generate the tax revenues (CIT, PIT, and VAT) needed to combat poverty, disease, and illiteracy. This is particularly important given the alarming number of out-of-school children, especially in the North, as reported by UNICEF.

    Unfortunately, both the federal government and northern leaders have fallen short in raising public awareness about key policies and programs. Effective communication is essential for the success of government initiatives. Just as politicians aggressively campaign to secure votes, they should also passionately advocate for government programs post-election to ensure effective governance.

    Take, for instance, the National Education Loan Fund (NELFUND), a program designed to provide financial support to Nigerian youth pursuing education. The current television campaign about NELFUND, launched by the National Orientation Agency (NOA), comes too late. The target audience—youth—should have been informed about the initiative well in advance of its launch, not after the fact. This late-stage campaign is a reminder of the crucial need for timely communication in driving national programs and ensuring their success.

    Even so, the message is being communicated through a cartoon character designed for children between the ages of one and ten, which is an odd choice, given that the target audience for the initiative—young adults seeking to enter university—are typically 16 and older. Even more concerning is the fact that the jingle is airing on regular TV stations, rather than on programs and channels that truly capture the attention of young people, such as music channels like SoundCity and HipTV, or popular talent and reality shows like Big Brother Naija.

    At present, there’s little to no presence of NELFUND on social media, a platform where Nigerian youths—who are active netizens—primarily interact. These platforms were pivotal in mobilizing for the #EndSARS protests in 2020 and the #EndBadGovernance movement just a few months ago.

    Given the lack of proper outreach, it’s not surprising that the Executive Secretary of NELFUND, Mr. Akin Sawyer, has expressed concern over the low interest in one of the Tinubu administration’s key initiatives—providing loans to students for their education. He has been touring various higher institutions in an effort to increase awareness. With 162 higher institutions in Nigeria, a recent report from Punch revealed that only students from 136 of these institutions applied for NELFUND, leaving over 88,000 students from the remaining schools unengaged. The lack of participation can be attributed to insufficient awareness campaigns or perhaps the fear surrounding loans due to past negative experiences.

    However, these concerns could have been alleviated with more extensive publicity, stressing that the student loan program is interest-free, so there is no danger of falling into a debt trap. It’s important to emphasize that the NELFUND initiative aims to democratize education by providing loans to disadvantaged students, enabling youth—who could have become innovators or entrepreneurs like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, or Sam Altman—to access education instead of being stranded as street urchins due to financial constraints.

    Now, turning to the core focus of this discussion—tax reform—one of the most debated issues is the proposed new VAT distribution formula. To explore this, let’s examine VAT tax administration in three countries: the UK, the USA, and China.

    In the UK, the standard VAT rate is 20%, which is more than double Nigeria’s 7.5% rate, though there are reduced rates for certain goods. For instance, food and drink for human consumption are typically zero-rated, and some items like children’s car seats and home energy are taxed at a reduced rate of 5%. Like Nigeria, some goods and services are exempt from VAT, such as postage stamps and certain health and education services.

    The United States, on the other hand, does not have a federal VAT system. Instead, it operates a sales tax system, which varies from state to state. Some states have no sales tax, while others have rates ranging from 2.9% to 7.25%. A few states may have specific taxes that resemble VAT, but there is no nationwide VAT system.

    In China, the standard VAT rate is 13%, with reduced rates of 9% and 6% applying to specific goods and services. Like the UK, the 9% rate applies to retail, entertainment, hotels, and restaurants, while the 6% rate applies to financial services, insurance, and technology. The VAT system in these countries aligns with Nigeria’s policy of exempting food from VAT.

    In my assessment, Nigeria’s proposed VAT reforms are in line with global best practices. Therefore, the debate surrounding these reforms, particularly the North-South divide, is unfortunate and avoidable. Without a doubt, the proposed tax reforms could benefit Nigeria’s growth and development. In fact, if the reform bill passes, it is likely that Lagos will lose some of its benefits, because it will vitiate the Supreme Court’s  judgement which was expected to be in favor of the 100% VAT allocation for Lagos and Rivers state that had sued the federal government that currently collects VAT which the states are against. As a result of the improvement in VAT tax derivation ratio from 20% to 60% , the scramble for investors , as it happens in ths USA for instance where states jostle for fims like Tesla, Microsoft, GM, etc to be located in their  domain to boost jobs creation and tax benefits, other states may start aggressively emarking on adoption of ease of doing business policies to attract businesses into establishing their operations locally to benefit from CIT, PIT, and VAT, which Lagos currently enjoys due to its business hub status.

    Furthermore, as Nigeria looks to implement tax reforms, oil-rich states like those in the Niger Delta might push for international oil companies (IOCs) to relocate their headquarters to the region to ensure that host communities benefit from the 60% VAT allocation in the reform. I have discussed this point of view with Osagie Okunbor, Chairman of Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC), in Nigeria who supports the idea, provided there is peace and security in the region.

    Invariably, just as the North must tackle insecurity to unlock its potential as a center for commerce and industry, the  same goes for the Niger Delta, which requires an end to militant activities to attract IOCs back to the region. In the East, the actions of the proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) which have stifled entrepreneurial activities, further hindering progress , has to end if they must enjoy the benefits of the proposed formula for sharing VAT.

    In the light of the above, if the tax reform bills are passed, they could have a multiplier effect on Nigeria’s development, particularly by addressing the insecurity that hampers businesses across the country simply because all state governors will have reasons to embark on more innovative and dynamic ways of returning peace to their dormain so that businesses can thrive to generate income internally . In effect,these proposed tax  reforms offer far more benefits than they might initially appear, including tackling insecurity, which remains one of the most significant barriers to Nigeria’s socio-economic progress.

    Therefore, instead of framing the tax reform as a North-South conflict , we should view it as a strategic opportunity to lift Nigeria out of its socio-economic stagnation. As such ,I urge our lawmakers to look beyond temporary political concerns and pass the bill after addressing the outstanding issues through continued dialogue.

     

    Magnus Onyibe, a public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, (2003-2007)  sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.

    To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng.

  • Who wants Mike Adenuga Jr. dead? – By Magnus Onyibe

    Who wants Mike Adenuga Jr. dead? – By Magnus Onyibe

    The recent false alarm about Chief Mike Adenuga Jr.’s death was so influential that legendary musician Ebenezer Obey felt compelled to release a song debunking it. Back in the 1980s, Obey’s hit song Ketekete narrated the story of a horse burdened by its riders to the extent that it was felt that the weight might kill the horse. It is unsurprising that the yoruba phrase  ‘efe kpa ketekete’ (translated – you want to kill the horse) became a metaphor that resonated deeply and became an instant classic across yorubaland and beyond.

    This time, the focus of Obey’s song was to refute the fake news surrounding Dr. Mike Adenuga Jr., a beloved business magnate, celebrated philanthropist, and Nigeria’s second-richest man based on Forbes list of billionaires.

    Before Obey stepped in with his musical clarification, Dele Momodu, a media entrepreneur and afficianado of Adenuga phenomenon, had already addressed the false reports, confirming that the business tycoon was very much alive.

    Born on April 29, 1953, Chief Dr. Mike Adenuga, founder of Globacom, is 71 years old. Though not a socialite, he recently hosted traditional and Christian wedding ceremonies for his daughter Afolashade first at his lavish banana lsland residence and later on October 26 at Se-Se’s Groove on Alfred Rewane Road, Ikoyi, Lagos.

    It was a rare occasion for Adenuga, who seldom attends or hosts events outside his private banquet hall at home.

    In my personal assesment, it is Adenuga’s preference for privacy that likely made him a target for the death hoax. Public figures like Femi Otedola, who are highly visible both on social media and in real-life social gatherings, are less likely to fall victim to such misinformation because he would have been seen in mutiple locations by lots of people before the false news purveyors finish typing the message or before the ink from the pen used in writing the falsehood dries up.

    Before diving into Adenuga’s achievements as a businessman, philanthropist, and family man, it is imperative to explore the broader issue of misinformation and disinformation which have become a menace to society in a epidemic proportion. Understanding its drivers, particularly in the era of social media and Artificial Intelligence, is crucial to tackling this growing malaise.

    The phenomenon of being falsely declared dead is not new; it is universal and dates back centuries. One notable example is Mark Twain, who in 1897 humorously dismissed a false death report by stating, “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”

    Other examples include the “Paul is Dead” rumor about Beatles bassist Paul McCartney in 1969, Mick Jagger being falsely declared dead the same year, and Harrison Ford in 2015, when a fabricated report claimed he had died in a plane crash.

    Similarly, in 2014, actor Zach Braff became the target of a hoax, and in 2012, Morgan Freeman was falsely declared dead, prompting his representatives to issue a statement affirming his well-being.

    In Adenuga’s case, Dele Momodu quickly debunked the rumors, reaffirming Adenuga’s status as a living icon. Known as “The Spirit of Africa,” Adenuga has earned admiration across the continent, thanks to his philanthropic contributions that have positively impacted millions of lives.

    Among the celebrities in a global context who have also been falsely reported dead is professional wrestler and actor Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson. In 2018, a fake news story claimed he had died during a stunt mishap. Johnson responded humorously, tweeting, “I’m not dead; I’m just resting my eyebrows.”

    While Mike Adenuga, the founder of Glo Telecom and Consolidated Oil, did not publicly address the rumors of his supposed death, the outpouring of support from his admirers undoubtedly touched him deeply.

    These instances underscore the importance of verifying information from credible sources before spreading or believing reports about someone’s death. Fortunately, in today’s digital age, there are many tools to help with fact-checking—unlike in the past, when such resources were scarce.

    The global spread of fake news, especially about celebrities, has caused significant distress, and it is unsurprising that Nigeria has witnessed its share of such incidents. For example, Nnamdi Azikiwe, Nigeria’s first Governor-General, was falsely declared dead multiple times before his actual passing in 1996. One of the most notable hoaxes occurred on June 9, 1969, when he was reported dead, and this continued for nearly three decades. Given Azikiwe’s survival for 27 years after such reports, it is possible that Mike Adenuga, also known as “The Bull,” may follow a similar path and live well into his later years, perhaps 100 years, just as Azikiwe did by living for another 27 years and well into the age of 91 after being falsely declared dead.

    Other prominent Nigerians have also been targets of fake death rumors. For instance, rumors circulated that former President Muhammadu Buhari had died and been replaced by a Sudanese body double named “Jubril.” Buhari publicly refuted the rumors, affirming that he was still alive. These hoaxes, which spread via platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube, were fueled by certain influential figures who want to gain social media attention and followership. Buhari addressed the issue during a meeting with Nigerians in Poland, calling those behind the rumors “ignorant and irreligious.” He also revealed that some individuals had hoped for his death and attempted to lobby the vice president to take over.

    Mohammed Babangida, son of former Nigerian leader Ibrahim Babangida, was also falsely reported dead in 2010. A fabricated report claimed he died in a car crash, but it was quickly debunked. Even General Ibrahim Babangida himself has been falsely declared dead by his detractors, though he remains alive.

    In 2013, a false report claimed Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, former Lagos State Governor, had died. Tinubu later released a statement to confirm he was alive and well. Today, he serves as Nigeria’s President.

    Similarly, in 2015, General Olusegun Obasanjo was targeted by death rumors, but he later made a public appearance to debunk the story. Alhaji Aliko Dangote, Africa’s richest man, was also falsely reported dead in 2015, prompting him to release a statement to clarify that he was alive.

    Even governors have been victims of such rumors, with Rochas Okorocha, former governor of Imo State, being falsely declared dead in 2017. He too made a public appearance to deny the rumors.

    These examples emphasize the necessity of verifying information before accepting or sharing news of someone’s death. The persistence of such hoaxes could be attributed to the lack of stringent penalties, making it a growing issue both in Nigeria and globally.

    For instance, in response to a tragic incident in Australia, a law was enacted prohibiting children under 16 from using social media, following a suicide linked to online bullying. This law holds both internet service providers and parents accountable. Similarly, Nigeria could consider implementing laws that penalize those spreading fake news and the media platforms that allow such content, helping to curb the spread of false death reports,for instance.

    In this context, Chief Mike Adenuga Jr., Nigeria’s second-richest man according to Forbes, has now been added to the list of VIPs who have been falsely reported dead.

    In many cultures, being declared dead before one’s actual passing is often linked to various myths and superstitions. Two such beliefs include:

    1. Cleansing or Renewal: In certain mythologies, a false death announcement symbolizes a renewal or cleansing of the person’s life force or energy.

    2. Trickster Spirits: In other traditions, the false death announcement is attributed to trickster spirits or mischievous entities that deceive the living.

    These myths may seem relevant in light of the examples above. Notably, apart from Azikiwe, who lived decades beyond his first false death report, all the other VIPs mentioned—Babangida, Buhari, Tinubu, Aliko Dangote, Rochas Okorocha, and now Mike Adenuga—are still alive and we are thankful to God.

    While these superstitions aren’t universally accepted, they offer intriguing insights into human imagination and cultural diversity.

    The takeaway from these incidents is the importance of verifying information through reliable sources to prevent spreading misinformation.

    In today’s digital age, the main motivation behind fake news is often to drive traffic to the perpetrator’s social media accounts, thereby generating income from platforms like Google and Spotify. This same incentive fuels other bizarre acts, such as posting shocking or inappropriate content like bestiality to attract views.

    For media-savvy individuals, there are several ways to identify and stop the spread of fake news. Here are five tips, as recommended by Nigeria Communications Week, referencing Jumia Travels:

    1. Check the URL: Fake news sites often clone trusted sources. For example, johndoe.com might be mimicked as johndoe.com.co. Always verify the URL.

    2. Verify through multiple sources: Trusted outlets like Reuters, BBC, Bloomberg, or Al Jazeera are reliable for breaking news. If the story isn’t on these platforms, be skeptical.

    3. Use fact-checking websites: Websites like FactCheck.org can help confirm the accuracy of news.

    4. Check the date: Some fake reports recycle old news to cause confusion. Confirm the date to ensure the story is current.

    5. Be cautious of sensationalism: Stories that are excessively alarming, overly emotional, or exaggerated are often fake.

    For example, a false report recently claimed that U.S.-based Nigerian real estate developer Stephen Akintayo had been nominated by then-President-elect Donald Trump for Secretary of Housing and Urban Development. Many Nigerians believed this until it was confirmed that Scott Turner was the actual nominee.

    To avoid unintentionally spreading fake news, like the false report about Chief Mike Adenuga Jr.’s death, we must remain vigilant and follow the guidelines outlined above.

    At 71, Adenuga Jr. remains a prominent business figure in Nigeria and across Africa, where his companies, especially Globacom, have a significant presence. As part of my recent book launch, Leading from the Streets: Media Interventions by a Media Intellectual (1999–2019), we honored Dr. Adenuga with the Leading from the Streets trophy for his transformative impact on Nigerian businesses.

    It is worth recalling that Globacom revolutionized Nigeria’s telecommunications industry by introducing the affordable per-second billing system, replacing the expensive per-minute system used by pioneers like MTN and Econet (now Airtel). Companies like Glo, Dangote Refinery, and Air Peace have also shielded Nigerians from the exploitative practices of foreign-owned firms in telecommunications, petrol refining and airliine services.

    This is why we continue to advocate for the government to recognize Glo, Dangote Refinery, and Air Peace as vital national assets. Supporting these indigenous companies would help them compete with foreign corporations, just as South Korea’s government-backed global brands, such as Samsung and LG, have thrived in that country’s chaebol business model.

    In this light, Dr. Mike Adenuga Jr. is seen as a national asset who must be protected from the damage caused by being falsely declared dead by malicious individuals who do so for amusement or ill intent.

    Consdered from the prism of someone who trys to find a way to see positive things even in negative situations, in uncanny and unexpected ways, there may be benefits  to being falsely declared dead before one’s time. That is because it  is the chance to witness how others would react to one’s passing—whether through mourning, remembrance, or even scorn. So following  the death hoax and the outpouring of concern from many Nigerians and Africans, telecommunications and oil magnate Mike Adenuga now understands just how much he is truly valued by others and he has had a glimpse of how (all things remaining equal) , he will be mourned when he passses away at God’s appointed time . This is a significant realization.

     

    Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government (2003–2007), sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.

    To continue this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng.

  • Kemi Badenoch’s remarkable ascent in UK politics: A milestone for the black community – By Magnus Onyibe

    Kemi Badenoch’s remarkable ascent in UK politics: A milestone for the black community – By Magnus Onyibe

    As Great Britain, once a colonial power ruling over 56 nations now part of the Commonwealth, transitions into a more inclusive society, a symbolic form of “reverse colonization” seems to be unfolding. This phenomenon, exemplified by individuals from formerly colonized nations rising to leadership roles in the UK, highlights the open-mindedness of Britons. Their inclusive approach has afforded immigrants, including those born in the UK, equal opportunities alongside the native population.

    The adventurous spirit of the British has also contributed to London’s evolution into a cosmopolitan hub. Home to people from various former colonies, London has become a melting pot of cultures and a global financial center rivaling cities like New York, Shanghai, and Hong Kong.

    Historically, Britain’s dominance as a seafaring nation beginning after the founding of the country in 1707 enabled it to build an empire that spanned nearly a quarter of the globe. Through its control of vast territories in Africa, India, Australia, Canada, the United States, and the Caribbean, the British Empire left an indelible mark on the world. While the UK is no longer the imperial force it once was, it remains a vital player on the global stage.

    Should Kemi Badenoch—of Nigerian heritage now the leader of the Tory party currently in opposition—one day become the UK’s Prime Minister, it would be a monumental achievement not just for Nigerians but for Africans and the global Black community. Her rise would echo that of Barack Obama, whose election as the first Black President of the United States inspired millions worldwide.

    However, it’s unlikely that Nigerians had a direct hand in Badenoch’s political success. Her ascent in the UK’s political sphere did not hinge on support from Nigerian-majority constituencies. Therefore, Nigerians must allow her to continue climbing the political ladder without the negativity that sometimes characterizes reactions to such achievements as evidenced by the vilification from Nigerians she is currently contending with.

    In my view, if Badenoch reaches the pinnacle of UK politics, she may remember her Nigerian roots. But even if she doesn’t, her success is still significant. It would serve as an inspiration for Nigerian-born Britons and the broader Black community in the UK and other countries in Europe and North America to pursue political leadership, marking a meaningful step forward for the Black race.

    In the United States, Barack Obama deliberately distanced himself from Black identity politics during his presidential campaign, recognizing that such an approach might limit his appeal in a nation where Black Americans constitute just 13% of the population. In contrast, Hispanics account for approximately 14%, while Caucasians make up around 67%. The significant role of rural Caucasian voters in Donald Trump’s 2016 and 2024 victory—and their contribution to Keir Starmer’s Labour Party overtaking the Conservatives earlier this year, which Kemi Badenoch currently represents—underscores the importance of appealing to the broader majority in diverse democracies.

    For candidates from minority backgrounds aspiring to lead multi-ethnic nations, emphasizing racial or ethnic identity can create barriers. Hence Badenoch, like others before her, has to navigate this challenge.

    Historically, Rev. Al Sharpton and Rev. Jesse Jackson both campaigned for the U.S. presidency by centering on Black identity, but neither achieved electoral success. Barack Obama learned from these missteps, avoiding identity politics and instead galvanizing young voters through social media, ultimately winning the presidency in 2008. Similarly, Kamala Harris, the current U.S. Vice President, distanced herself from minority-focused identity politics. That is why she did not openly emphasize her Black heritage during her campaign, but celebrated her marriage to Doug Emhoff, a Caucasian, to further broaden her appeal.

    Kemi Badenoch appears to be following a comparable path in the UK. Her husband, Mr. Hamish Badenoch, is a successful Caucasian banker, a detail that could work in her favor when elections are called. As leader of the Conservative Party, this positioning may enhance her chances of becoming the UK’s next Prime Minister.

    Meanwhile, the debate over reparations for the historical atrocities of slavery perpetrated against Africans continues to stir emotions. At the recent Commonwealth meeting in Apia, Samoa, African representatives renewed their call for reparations, but King Charles dismissed the demands, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer brushed them aside. This response frustrated African advocates and reignited debates about the relevance of the Commonwealth, especially if it primarily serves to promote the economic interests of the UK as the former colonial power, particularly the African continent as a market for her goods and services.

    The UK’s resistance to reparations—unlike Germany, which compensated Israel for the Holocaust—is likely rooted in the immense financial strain such a commitment would impose, particularly given the UK’s current economic difficulties.

    Nevertheless, Britons like Americans have demonstrated a commendable level of inclusivity and liberalism by granting citizens of foreign ancestry the same rights and opportunities to rise to the highest echelons of political power. This inclusive approach could, for now, be seen as a symbolic form of reparation for the UK’s inability to meet Africa’s demands for financial reparations.

    In this context, Kemi Badenoch’s rise to prominence—an African woman occupying one of the most significant positions in British politics—offers a powerful symbolic acknowledgment of historical injustices and readiness of the former colonizer to atone for past atrocities such as slavery and the pillaging of the economic resources of the continent. Her potential candidacy for Prime Minister would reaffirm this gesture of non-financial reparation, serving as a tribute to the historical exploitation of Africa, particularly the West African region.

    That said, I do not support those in Nigeria who have criticized Badenoch for her disparaging remarks about the country during her bid for Conservative Party leadership. As Otto von Bismarck once said: “Politics is the art of the possible.” This pragmatic view mirrors the boldness that led Bismarck to organize the infamous Berlin Conference of 1884/85, where Africa was partitioned among European powers whose vestiges have been sustained and a reason the continent remains underdeveloped.

    Franklin D. Roosevelt, the 32nd President of the United States, is famously associated with the statement: “In politics, nothing happens by accident.” This highlights that political events and decisions are rarely spontaneous but are typically the result of meticulous planning, strategy, and deliberate manipulation.

    Kemi Badenoch’s ambition to become the next Prime Minister of the UK is legitimate, and her approach reflects this aspiration. By aligning herself with the expectations of the British electorate, she has positioned herself as a candidate who embodies British political ideals. However, her portrayal of Nigeria, which has drawn criticism from Nigerians, likely serves to reassure skeptical voters in the UK of her commitment to those ideals, which differ markedly from the political climate in her ancestral home.

    Critics who find her comments about Nigeria disparaging may view them as unnecessary, but Napoleon Bonaparte’s assertion that “In politics, absurdity is not a handicap” offers a counterpoint. This underscores the reality that political maneuvering often includes statements or actions perceived as controversial or unconventional.

    The ruthless ambition often associated with political pursuits is exemplified by Nicolae Ceaușescu, the former communist leader of Romania, who reportedly declared: “I will sell my mother to buy power. After getting power, I will buy my mother back.” While the literal feasibility of such a claim is questionable, it reflects the unrelenting drive and willingness to sacrifice personal relationships for political gain. Similarly, Ghanaian politician Freddie Blay echoed this sentiment, stating: “I love politics, and I would spend money to win power. If you are not careful, I will even be ready to sell my mother for money to retain my position.”

    This stark perspective highlights an inconvenient truth: such a mindset underpins the actions of many politicians globally, particularly in authoritarian systems. Politics, after all, is a game of power and influence, often involving the orchestration of events to achieve specific objectives. While this doesn’t always imply malicious intent, it does illustrate the calculated nature of political strategy. As Groucho Marx wittily observed: “Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedies.”

    From a historical standpoint, Badenoch’s current political strategy in the UK parallels that of Franklin Delano Roosevelt (FDR), whose rise to the U.S. presidency (1933–1945) was shaped by significant challenges, including the Great Depression and World War II. FDR’s leadership was marked by calculated and strategic decisions, much like Badenoch’s tactical rise to the top of the Tory party as she positioned herself for a shot at the premiership.

    As the saying goes: “There is no smoke without fire.”

    Badenoch’s seemingly critical stance on Nigeria may be driven by the significant obstacles she faces in her political journey. These include her non-Caucasian identity, which may lead some to question whether her African heritage aligns with British identity. This skepticism is compounded by concerns that her Nigerian background might influence her leadership style if she were to become Prime Minister. Overcoming these challenges requires Badenoch to carefully navigate perceptions and prove her commitment to the ideals and values expected by the British electorate.

    Given the unconscious bias that her non-Caucasian background might invite, Kemi Badenoch appears to have strategically distanced herself from Nigeria. This move is likely aimed at improving her chances of securing the top political position in the UK—Prime Minister and resident of 10 Downing Street. To achieve this, she has deliberately redefined herself as a quintessential Briton, fully embodying British political ideals and values.

    Therefore, Badenoch’s public criticism of Nigeria’s poor political standards plays into this strategy, enhancing her appeal to the UK electorate who need to be assured that her values as a politician are higher than the typical Nigerian standard. These voters, to whom she must demonstrate her allegiance, are the ones whose support she needs to succeed in her political ambitions, not the Nigerians who have no voting rights in the UK that are unbraiding her because she is not pandering to them.

    Given the above reality, it is essential to view Badenoch’s actions through the lens of political survival. She faces significant challenges as she navigates her role as the first Black woman to lead a major political party in the UK, and her situation can be compared to popular cultural phenomena. For instance, her political journey resembles contestants on the Big Brother House reality television show, where individuals use charm, wit, and strategy to outlast competitors and win over audiences to clinch the coveted prize. Similarly, it mirrors the power struggles and scheming seen in Game of Thrones another reality television show, where characters fight for survival and dominance in a high-stakes, ruthless environment.

    Understanding the immense pressures Badenoch faces should prompt Nigerians to support her rather than criticize her, hence this intervention aimed at sharing another Point of View, PoV on the matter. Unfortunately, many Nigerians, despite sharing a common ancestry with her, have been quick to attack her leadership style and political stance. Hopefully, this article will help to explain the rationale behind her political posture, which has drawn ire from Nigerians who perceive it as disloyal or unflattering. By recognizing the challenges Badenoch confronts, critics may better understand her choices and judge her more fairly.

    In stark contrast to the criticism Badenoch has received for not openly embracing her Nigerian heritage, Rishi Sunak, the former UK Prime Minister of Indian descent, enjoyed overwhelming support from both the Indian diaspora in the UK and Indians back home.

    Based on my research, the following factors may help explain why Nigerians have reacted more critically to Badenoch’s candidacy compared to the widespread celebration of Sunak’s rise to power:

    1. Distinct diaspora dynamics:

    The Indian diaspora in the UK is larger, more established, and maintains stronger cultural and economic ties to India. On the other hand, while the Nigerian community in the UK is growing, it lacks the same level of organization and connection to Nigeria.

    2. Nigerian political challenges and skepticism:

    Nigeria’s history of political instability and corruption has created a sense of skepticism among its citizens. Consequently, many Nigerians may hesitate to celebrate a politician, especially one who has achieved success within a foreign political system.

    3. Limited connection or representation:

    Unlike Rishi Sunak, who openly embraces and celebrates his Indian heritage, Kemi Badenoch has not prominently highlighted her Nigerian roots but discountenanced them. Her apparent reluctance, possibly influenced by the challenges facing Nigeria, may contribute to the lack of enthusiasm among Nigerians.

    4. Divergent expectations from diaspora figures:

    Nigerians tend to focus on the tangible contributions their diaspora representatives make toward Nigeria’s development, rather than celebrating individual achievements abroad. This difference in priorities may explain the muted reception to Badenoch’s political ambitions.

    5. Media portrayal and controversy:

    The role of social and traditional media cannot be ignored. Badenoch’s controversial remarks about Nigeria have sparked significant backlash, with media platforms amplifying these sentiments and shaping public opinion.

    In conclusion,

    Rishi Sunak and Kemi Badenoch (if she becomes Prime Minister) will not be the first politicians from minority backgrounds to lead the UK. Several British Prime Ministers have had diverse ancestries:

    William Pitt the Younger: Born in England, he became Prime Minister at the age of 24 and had Irish ancestry through his father, a British politician.

    Benjamin Disraeli: An English-born Prime Minister whose father was an Italian immigrant.

    Harold Wilson: Also born in England, Wilson’s father, a chemist, had Scottish roots.

    Kemi Badenoch, an African of Nigerian heritage, could similarly rise to lead the UK, following the precedent set by these figures.

    Some critics might attempt to frame her success as “reverse colonialism.” However, she will not be the first minority from a former colony to rule the UK because India, like Nigeria, was colonized by Britain, and Rishi Sunak served as UK Prime Minister for two years (2022–2024) without significantly favoring Indians or enriching India as a country. This demonstrates that such fears are baseless.

    As Badenoch appears to have a strong chance of becoming the next UK Prime Minister, Nigerians should refrain from actions or criticisms that could undermine her ambitions.

    To Kemi Badenoch, my advice is simple: remain composed (translated in Yoruba as  -farabale). Although you are British, your umbilical cord is still tied to Nigeria, and you will need the blessings of Nigerians as you ascend to the highest office in your current country of citizenship.

    I join others in wishing her as well as other politicians of Nigerian heritage climbing up the ladder of the political ecosystems in their respective countries of citizenship, the best of luck as they chase the dream of becoming prime minister/president.

    Magnus Onyibe

    Entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.

    To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng.

  • How President-elect Trump plans to transform Washington – By Magnus Onyibe

    How President-elect Trump plans to transform Washington – By Magnus Onyibe

    President-Elect Donald Trump, set to assume office as the 47th President of the United States on January 20, 2025, is preparing to usher in transformative changes that are already evident in the composition of his team. These changes, so striking, might have been considered heretical during historical periods of rigid orthodoxy, such as the Age of Inquisitions.

    In those times, heresy—defined as expressing opinions that sharply contradicted established beliefs—was often met with severe punishments, well-documented and notorious enough to need no recounting. Today, Trump’s detractors, particularly the “Never Trumpers” who champion adherence to conventional political norms, might view him as guilty of defying what they see as the “correct” political dogma.

    This perception may partly explain why Trump, who frequently labels his opponents the “radical left,”  faced extreme resistance throughout his political journey. Evidently, his adversaries sought to thwart his resurgence through three significant attempts: impeachment, imprisonment, and even assassination—all of which, ultimately failed due to Trump’s unwavering faith in himself and indefatigable spirit.

    To understand the depth of resistance Trump faces, one can draw parallels with historical instances where revolutionary ideas were met with fierce opposition. In the past, when groundbreaking discoveries challenged widely held beliefs—such as the realization that the Earth was not flat but spherical—those who introduced such ideas were often vilified, persecuted, or even killed for defying established norms. These innovators were seen as threats to the existing order, just as Trump’s unconventional approach has unsettled the entrenched political establishment in Washington.

    The intertwining of religion and governance in historical eras often justified persecution under the guise of upholding divine order. In the modern context, Trump’s legal battles, impeachment proceedings, and public scrutiny evoke similar resistance to change—albeit in a political rather than theological sense.

    Democracy, as a system of governance, emerged in Athens, Greece, during the 5th century BCE and was later refined by philosophers such as Socrates and Aristotle. Over time, it evolved through influences from thinkers like John Locke, Charles Montesquieu, and Jean-Jacques Rousseau, in France leading to its various manifestations around the world. Examples include the parliamentary system in the United Kingdom and the presidential system in the United States and India.

    Despite its enduring prominence, democracy has coexisted with alternative governance systems, including monarchies, oligarchies, and diarchies, which remain prevalent in parts of the Middle East, Asia, and Japan. Some nations, like Sweden, Denmark, and Finland, have embraced “democratic socialism,” blending socialist economic policies with democratic governance—a stark contrast to the capitalist inclinations of the United States and much of the global West.

    Trump’s leadership style signals a potential departure from the entrenched democratic norms that have shaped governance since the Byzantine era. His proposed reforms—and the unconventional choices for his cabinet—suggest a willingness to disrupt traditional politics in favor of a more transformative approach.

    It is conceivable that by the end of his term, President Trump could draw comparisons to Constantine the Great, the Roman leader whose political and administrative reforms in the 4th century CE significantly influenced governance and shaped elements of democracy as we know it today.

    Unsurprisingly, the prospect of such sweeping changes has unsettled Washington’s political class. These traditionalists, deeply rooted in the bureaucratic structures that have defined their careers, now face the disruptive reality of Trump’s second term—a term that promises to challenge the status quo and redefine the fabric of American governance.

    The impending shift in U.S. leadership under President-Elect Donald Trump is generating significant anxiety, not just in Washington but globally. U.S. allies in NATO, trading partners like China, and adversaries such as Iran are all bracing for potential changes. In Africa, concern is also evident, compounded by unfounded allegations from Trump’s critics—referred to as “Never Trumpers”—who falsely claim that he harbors disdain for Black people in the U.S and on the African continent.

    For years, a baseless narrative has circulated, alleging that Trump referred to African nations as “shithole countries.” This claim is unfounded, as Africa is a continent, not a single country, making it implausible that Trump made such a statement in the form attributed to him. These rumors appear to be part of a deliberate attempt by detractors to sow discord between Trump and Black communities worldwide.

    In reality, the relationship between Africa and a second Trump administration is likely to be complex and multidimensional. However, as an analysts l would argue that Trump’s “America First” approach may introduce protectionist policies that could disrupt global trade, with potential repercussions for African economies. For instance, a reevaluation of trade initiatives such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) or a preference for bilateral agreements over multilateral ones could challenge Africa’s economic landscape, particularly if these moves undermine the African Continental Free Trade Area.

    However, these challenges also present opportunities since Africa is a new frontier. So, if African nations act decisively, they could position themselves as viable alternatives in global supply chains, particularly in light of Trump’s campaign promise to impose a 16% tariff on imports from China. By stepping into roles vacated by China, African countries have the potential to strengthen economic ties with the U.S. under a Trump-led administration. This could be achieved through upgraded bilateral trade agreements or a reimagined “AGOA 2.0” that aligns with Trump’s vision. Who knows, there could even be Trump Tower in Abuja in the forseable future.

    Security collaboration is another potential area of alignment. Strengthening the U.S. Africa Command to provide enhanced counterterrorism support could bolster peace and stability across the continent. Such efforts are critical for creating a secure environment conducive to trade and investment. Programs like Prosper Africa, launched in 2019 to promote U.S.-Africa trade and investment, could see renewed momentum if insecurity on the continent is addressed.

    Ultimately, the trajectory of U.S.-Africa relations under Trump’s leadership will depend on several factors, including his administration’s policies, the responsiveness of African governments, and broader global economic trends. As such, African leaders must seize this moment to leverage emerging opportunities, particularly by adopting a strategic and business-oriented approach to engagement with the U.S.

    Already, the biggest American embassy in the world is under construction in  Eko Atlantic City, Lagos. That to me is a demonstration of US.to Nigeria as a development partner. It goes without saying that embassys are veritable international facilitators.

    For Africans—and Nigerians in particular—this could be a chance to benefit from Trump’s presidency if leaders align with the evolving U.S. policy framework. With the U.S., the world’s largest economy, potentially transitioning from its “global policeman” role to a leading creator of global wealth, Africa could capitalize on this shift for mutual gain.

    Turning to Trump’s unique and controversial persona, parallels can be drawn between his experiences and those of historical visionaries who challenged prevailing orthodoxy. Just as the discovery that the Earth was spherical contradicted the long-held belief in its flatness, Trump’s unorthodox positions—such as his initial skepticism about the catastrophic framing of COVID-19—have made him a target of political and media backlash.

    These challenges are reminiscent of times in history when those who defied conventional wisdom faced severe criticism.

    Throughout history, those who delivered groundbreaking insights or defied orthodoxy often faced resistance or persecution from entrenched authorities. This historical pattern mirrors the opposition that President-Elect Donald Trump is encountering from traditional politicians in Washington, as his unconventional policies aim to challenge the status quo and serve the interests of the more than 76.5 million Americans who decisively supported him.

    Ancient Greek philosophers set the precedent for challenging established norms with transformative discoveries. Pythagoras (c. 570–495 BCE) observed the Earth’s shadow during lunar eclipses and hypothesized a spherical Earth, a theory further supported by Aristotle (384–322 BCE) through observations of disappearing ships on the horizon and shifting constellations. Eratosthenes (276–194 BCE) even calculated the Earth’s circumference with remarkable precision. Despite their significant contributions, these thinkers often faced skepticism and resistance from the leaders of their time.

    Similarly, heliocentrism, first proposed by Aristarchus of Samos (c. 310–230 BCE) and later revived by Copernicus (1473–1543 CE), met staunch opposition. The Catholic Church opposed Copernicus’ model, and advocates like Giordano Bruno and Galileo Galilei faced severe consequences—Bruno was executed, and Galileo was confined to house arrest for defending the idea of a Sun-centered universe.

    Trump’s political journey bears striking parallels to the struggles of these historical figures. Like them, he has faced significant resistance—allegations of election fraud in 2020, impeachment efforts, legal challenges, and even threats to his life during the 2024 campaign. Yet, his return to the presidency, set for January 20, 2025, underscores his resilience and broad support. The Republican Party’s simultaneous control of the Senate and the House of Representatives—a first in a century—further highlights the movement he has built.

    Trump’s determination recalls figures like Ferdinand Magellan, whose historic circumnavigation proved the Earth’s spherical shape. Just as Magellan’s expedition was driven by perseverance, Trump’s commitment to “draining the Washington swamp” and instituting bold reforms is poised to reshape the U.S. political landscape.

    This anticipated transformation is comparable to other seismic shifts in human understanding, such as the visual confirmation of the Earth’s shape via 20th-century satellite imagery or the revolutionary effects of artificial intelligence and social media. These innovations redefined how humanity interacts with the world, much like Trump’s policies are expected to redefine U.S. governance and global influence.

    In preparation for his second term, Trump has begun assembling a team reflective of his unorthodox approach. He has appointed long-time ally Susie Wiles as Chief of Staff, crediting her for his electoral success. Key nominations include Tom Homan as Border Czar, Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, and former Congressman Matt Gaetz as Attorney General.

    Other notable appointees include Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democratic congresswoman, as Director of National Intelligence; Chris Wright, an oil industry executive, as Energy Secretary; and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a controversial figure due to his stance on vaccines, as Public Health Secretary. These choices signal Trump’s intention to challenge conventional governance and implement transformative changes during his upcoming term.

    Former serviceman Doug Collins, known for defending Donald Trump during his first impeachment trial, has been appointed as Secretary of Veterans Affairs, while North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, with extensive business and governance experience, has been named Secretary of the Interior. John Ratcliffe will serve as CIA Director, and Kristi Noem has been chosen as Secretary of Homeland Security. Matt Gartz, defense secretary nominee has generated a lot of furore as it has been aledged that he had been accused of some improprieties. Even the current defense secretary ,Lloyed Austin suffered a similar push back based ruled that could have precluded him from eligible but in the end he received confirmation from the senate.

    Among Trump’s appointments, the most innovative is the creation of a new federal agency, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). This agency will be led by tech billionaire Elon Musk and former Republican rival Vivek Ramaswamy. DOGE’s mission is to streamline government by reducing excessive regulations, cutting wasteful spending, and restructuring federal agencies. Announcing the initiative, Trump stated:

    “I am pleased to announce that the great Elon Musk, working in conjunction with American patriot Vivek Ramaswamy, will lead the Department of Government Efficiency (‘DOGE’). Together, these two wonderful Americans will pave the way for my administration to dismantle government bureaucracy, slash excessive regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure federal agencies—essential to the ‘Save America’ movement. This will send shockwaves through the system, and anyone involved in government waste, which is a lot of people!”

    These reforms are expected to challenge Washington’s entrenched systems, ushering in an era of efficiency and innovation that could influence global governance trends for years to come.

    Interestingly, Trump’s DOGE initiative draws parallels to Nigeria’s 2012 Oronsaye Report, which outlined measures to reduce governance costs by consolidating Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs). Despite its potential, the report has been largely ignored for over a decade, contributing to Nigeria’s current debt crisis, which the Debt Management Office estimates currently N134.3 trillion. President Bola Tinubu’s recent reforms, such as removing fuel subsidies and devaluing the naira, align with Trump’s bold approach and could serve as inspiration for addressing Nigeria’s governance challenges.

    Trump is also targeting “wokeism,” a term that originally referred to awareness of social injustices but has evolved into a critique of perceived political overreach and divisiveness. Trump’s opposition to wokeism resonates with financial giants like Elon Musk, who joined his campaign partly due to personal experiences—Musk’s son underwent a gender transition, a decision Musk attributed to ideological influences propagated in US.schools to minors which he opposes. Musk reportedly contributed $118 million to support Trump’s campaign and challenge cultural trends they see as harmful.

    Trump’s return to the presidency in 2025 will make him only the second U.S. president, after Grover Cleveland, to serve two non-consecutive terms. In his victory speech, Trump described this achievement as the “greatest political movement of all time” and vowed to restore the country’s values, saying:

    “There’s never been anything like this in this country, and maybe now it’s going to reach a new level of importance because we’re going to help our country heal. We have a country that needs help, and it needs help very badly.”

    Trump’s reforms aim to reset America’s moral compass, reflecting the values of its Founding Fathers and challenging what he perceives as a decline in societal ethics. His focus on combating wokeism and restoring traditional principles underpins his broader vision to Make America Great Again (MAGA).

    While implementing these changes will be complex, Trump’s presidency could redefine governance and democracy for the modern era. Much like Athens pioneered democracy in the 5th century BCE, Trump’s efforts may reshape democratic systems globally. His forthcoming term, marked by ambitious reforms, will likely serve as a critical test for the resilience and adaptability of American democracy.

    Trump’s confidence is underpinned by the over 75million American electorate who gave him their mandate to become the 47th president and drain the swamp in Washington.

     

    Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.

    To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng.

  • How Nigerians can shift from agonizing to organizing – By Magnus Onyibe

    How Nigerians can shift from agonizing to organizing – By Magnus Onyibe

    A recent article in The Guardian newspaper highlighted the growing challenges of rising living costs in Nigeria, using data from surveys on the daily expenses of an average Nigerian family. As of August, the estimated cost of a single meal for a family of four is N1,255, translating to a monthly food expense of N150,000. This is a troubling reality, especially when compared to the federal minimum wage of N70,000. The survey data shows that a family earning this amount cannot afford even a single meal per day, as the minimum wage is less than half of the monthly food cost required. In effect, a Nigerian family earning the minimum wage can only afford half a meal per day.

    Given this context, the recent moves by Lagos State Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu and Rivers State Governor Siminari Fubara to raise the minimum wage to N85,000 have been welcomed. Ondo State Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa has also increased the minimum wage in his state to N77,000. Meanwhile, outgoing Edo State Governor Godwin Obaseki took the lead by implementing a N70,000 minimum wage for workers in his state even before the federal government and its negotiating team, including the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC), finalized their recommendations. While several other states have gone beyond the N70,000 mark, Lagos and Rivers States have set the highest standard with their N85,000 minimum wage. It remains to be seen whether the ongoing negotiations between the federal government and labor unions will result in a nationwide minimum wage increase to at least N100,000 per month.

    As discussions around further wage increases continue, the government should also explore the possibility of shifting to bi-monthly salary payments instead of the current monthly system. In countries like the United States, bi-weekly payments are a standard practice.

    Labor leaders in Nigeria should shift their focus from simply advocating for wage increases and start considering alternative approaches, such as adjusting salary payment cycles. While wage hikes remain a primary focus, the frequency of salary payments can also significantly impact workers’ financial well-being. Paying salaries bi-monthly could offer numerous advantages, both for employers and workers. Due to space constraints, I will focus primarily on the benefits to workers.

    One of the key advantages of more frequent salary payments is that it enables workers to better manage unexpected expenses. A regular income stream reduces the stress of waiting an entire month for the next paycheck. This adjustment would also allow for more effective budgeting, aligning with bi-weekly expenses, and ultimately enhancing employee satisfaction. This boost in morale could reduce turnover rates among staff.

    Transitioning to a bi-monthly wage payment system would be a significant change, and one I strongly advocate for in Nigeria. It could help mitigate the effects of the current rapid inflation, where the prices of goods frequently increase before the next purchase while salaries remain on a monthly payment cycle. This shift would move away from the traditional “30 days make a pay” approach and could better address the economic realities faced by workers.

    Having made this seemingly simple yet crucial suggestion to reduce the salary payment interval from 30 days to 15 days, I sincerely hope that labor leaders and government officials consider adopting this practical approach as a means to support workers during these challenging times of high inflation.

    Meanwhile, some critics have claimed that the Edo State governor’s decision to raise the minimum wage was politically motivated, aiming to secure votes for his preferred candidate in the governorship election on September 21. Similarly, accusations have been made against the Ondo State governor, suggesting that his N77,000 wage increase ahead of his re-election on November 16 was intended to win support from workers.

    However, both governors have defended their actions, arguing that their motives are not politically driven but rather focused on the welfare of workers, which they see as a fundamental duty of their roles.

    Regardless of the underlying motivations, the increase in the minimum wage—which has now doubled, with some governors adding even more—is ultimately beneficial for workers. Given that the cost of living has skyrocketed due to the significant devaluation of the naira and the removal of fuel subsidies, workers deserve this adjustment and more.

    This situation has been made worse by the recent surge in fuel prices, which now range between N1,000 in Lagos and N1,400 in other parts of the country.

    In light of this, Nigeria’s civil servants are in a difficult position, as the high fuel costs—a major driver of transportation expenses—have further escalated living costs, leading to widespread hardship among many Nigerians.

    While the current spike in living expenses is undeniably daunting, Nigerians must strive to overcome the despair brought on by these challenges and reject a mindset of victimhood. Only by doing so can they achieve their full potential, which appears within reach and may be realized sooner than expected.

    This outcome depends on maintaining the course of reform and enduring the sacrifices needed to secure a better future for everyone, rather than repeating the mistakes of the past—such as when General Ibrahim Babangida’s mid-1980s Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) was abandoned midway, leading to further setbacks for the nation and its economy.

    To avoid a repeat of protests like the #EndBadGovernance riots, I urge the current administration, which has committed to achieving a national reset and renewal, to revisit the N70,000 minimum wage. Increasing this wage would help ensure that workers can better cope with rising living costs.

    It is encouraging that key government officials—Minister of Information and National Orientation Mohammed Idris Malagi, Minister of State for Labor Nkiru Onyejeocha, and Finance/Coordinating Minister of the Economy Wale Edun—are reportedly in discussions with labor leaders to ensure a smooth and conflict-free adjustment to the minimum wage. This adjustment is essential to help mitigate the impact of the recent fuel price hike, which has worsened the cost of living.

    Clearly, the previously agreed-upon minimum wage of N70,000 is no longer sufficient to support workers amid escalating living costs. These economic pressures have been intensified by the political and economic reset pursued by the current administration over the last 18 months, as highlighted in a recent survey by The Guardian.

    In closing, it may be helpful to reflect on Jean-Paul Sartre’s view on hardship: “Life begins on the other side of despair.” This perspective suggests that if we view our challenges as opportunities for growth and preparation, we can better navigate the period following the removal of the petrol subsidy and other reforms.

     

    Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.

    To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng.

  • Are those opposed to state police putting our lives at risk? – By Magnus Onyibe

    Are those opposed to state police putting our lives at risk? – By Magnus Onyibe

    Since 1999, as insecurity in Nigeria has surged dramatically, federal and state governments have been divided over whether to maintain the current central policing system or shift to a state/local policing model.

    In February 2024, President Bola Tinubu and the governors of all 36 states agreed that implementing a state/local policing system could provide a more effective response to the severe insecurity that threatens lives and property across the nation.

    It is distressing that news of Nigerians being killed by bandits and terrorists floods the media daily. These unnecessary and preventable deaths highlight the deep-rooted insecurity and the consequences of inadequate policing. Given that ensuring the safety of lives and property is a fundamental duty of the government, the ongoing loss of Nigerian lives at an exponential rate is both alarming and unacceptable. This is particularly true since our leaders have the ability to curb, if not halt, this tragic loss of life by restructuring the nation’s security system—an area where their leadership has thus far fallen short.

    The sheer number of Nigerians who have lost their lives since the return to multiparty democracy in 1999 is not just shocking but overwhelming.

    Here’s a snapshot:

    As of September 30, 2024, Statista.com reports that 38,000 deaths in Nigeria have been caused by domestic terrorists, including the religious extremist group Boko Haram and bandits. For perspective, the death toll in Nigeria due to insecurity is about 3,000 less than the number of lives lost in the ongoing one-year-old Israeli-Palestinian war, which has resulted in approximately 41,000 deaths in Palestine and Gaza—the focal point of the Middle East conflict with religious dimensions.

    While Israel and Palestine are engaged in an active war, leading to the tragic and high number of casualties, Nigeria is not technically in a conventional war. However, the country has been locked in an asymmetric conflict with non-state actors for nearly two and a half decades.

    As a result, a significant number of Nigerians have lost their lives in this prolonged state of turmoil, especially in remote areas, notably in the northeastern, northwestern, and parts of the north-central regions, where conditions have been harsh and life precarious.

    Given this situation, the need for effective policing in Nigeria cannot be overstated. The lack of such policing, among other issues, has created an environment where insecurity can thrive, leading to the widespread suffering of our people.

    There is no doubt that policing is crucial for ensuring the safety and security of lives and properties. It is clear that the current police force is overwhelmed, possibly because the existing system is not well equipped to handle the increasingly complex criminal challenges facing the country.

    Currently, Nigeria operates a centralized policing system. Under this system, while the state governor is designated as the chief security officer of their state, the actual control lies with the Inspector General of Police (IGP), who is based in Abuja,the Federal Capital Territory, FCT. As a result, the state police commissioner takes directives only from the IGP, not the state governor. This structure aligns with Section 214(1) of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, which mandates: “There shall be a police force for Nigeria, which shall be known as the Nigeria Police Force, and subject to provisions of this section no other police force shall be established for the Federation or part thereof.”

    To alter this framework embedded in the nation’s laws, a constitutional amendment is required—a challenging endeavor due to the complex legislative process that involves federal lawmakers and requires the approval of a majority of state-level legislators. Nevertheless, despite the challenges, a deliberate change in Nigeria’s security structure is essential to effectively combat the insecurity plaguing the nation.

    Effective policing is known to lower crime rates, build trust and confidence within communities, enhance public safety, and promote economic growth and development. Therefore, establishing a solid policing framework is essential for Nigeria. However, the limited funds available for training police personnel, resulting in a lack of capacity, pose a significant challenge to the Nigerian police force. These issues mirror those affecting nearly all sectors within the country’s public administration.

    Some of the critical challenges that need to be addressed include insufficient resources, corruption and misconduct, strained relations between communities and the police, and emerging threats like terrorism and cybercrime—areas where the police, as currently structured, lack the institutional expertise to handle effectively, as these are relatively new challenges.

    To tackle these issues, Nigeria has initiated several reforms, such as:

    (a) Police reform programs

    (b) Community policing initiatives

    (c) Counter-terrorism strategies

    (d) International partnerships and training

    Despite these efforts, Nigerian citizens, particularly those in rural areas, continue to suffer under relentless attacks from religious and criminal elements since the return to multiparty democracy in 1999. This ongoing insecurity remains a significant challenge, despite the best efforts of the current government.

    Given this context, many have argued that a state or local policing model might be more effective than the current centralized policing system in addressing the new wave of criminal activities that threaten defenseless Nigerians.

    There has been resistance to the idea of state police, dating back to its initial proposal in 1999 under the administration of then-President Olusegun Obasanjo (OBJ, 1999-2007). According to historical records, OBJ faced impeachment threats from federal lawmakers who were influenced by those opposed to state police. Their concerns included the lack of funding to support such a system and the risk of misuse if governors had full control over the police in their states.

    A recent incident illustrates the complexities of the current system. Following a court ruling ,IGP Kayode Egbetokun reportedly ordered the police to withdraw from local government elections in Rivers State. However, the elections proceeded under the direction of the state governor, Siminari Fubara, who relied on another court ruling authorizing the election, used vigilante groups to ensure the process was completed successfully. This event highlights the urgent need to reassess Nigeria’s current policing structure and judicial interference in our electoral system.

    The conflict between the Rivers State governor and the IGP on election matters brings into focus broader questions about the role of the police in Nigeria’s electoral processes and the ongoing debate between adopting a local policing model versus maintaining the central policing system.

    As a nation striving for optimal security for both lives and property, it is crucial that we urgently and impartially evaluate which approach is best suited to address the current insecurity challenges facing our country.

    This is why the bill advocating for the establishment of state police, which is currently under legislative review in the House of Representatives, is a positive development. It should be pushed forward with renewed urgency to ensure its inclusion in the ongoing process to amend the 1999 Constitution.

    While local/state policing has its advantages, such as fostering community engagement, quick response times, deeper understanding of local issues, adaptability, and cost-effectiveness, it also has drawbacks. These include limited resources and expertise, high susceptibility to political influence, inconsistent training standards, and challenges with coordination across different jurisdictions.

    Conversely, central policing offers benefits like standardized training, access to specialized skills and resources, better coordination and communication, economies of scale, and the ability to conduct national-level intelligence gathering—critical for combating complex criminal activities. However, its disadvantages include a lack of close connection to local communities, bureaucratic hurdles, risks of centralized control and abuse, and limited awareness of local needs.

    The strengths of central policing often align with the weaknesses of local/state policing, and vice versa, meaning the two approaches tend to balance each other out. The real challenge lies in choosing the approach that will serve the country’s needs most effectively. This is where a hybrid model—combining elements of both systems—could offer a more balanced and pragmatic solution, potentially transforming our approach to security if our lawmakers are willing to adopt it.

    The recent Supreme Court decision mandating that funds designated for Local Government Areas (LGAs) be directly transferred to their accounts and managed by the elected grassroots representatives strengthens the argument for implementing state police.

    This ruling overturns the previous arrangement in which state governments controlled LGA funds. Under the new system, LGAs would allocate resources for security, enabling them to hire and maintain local police forces as they see fit.

    At the state level, funds previously directed toward supporting central police operations could instead be used to coordinate local police within LGAs. This would address concerns about funding shortages, one of the main reasons governors were initially hesitant to embrace local/state policing.

    Currently, aside from the central police headquartered in Abuja, states operate informal policing mechanisms, such as vigilante groups under various names. With the adoption of decentralized policing through constitutional amendments, these systems could be formalized into an official police force with proper recognition, akin to the native police of earlier times. Alternatively, a hybrid model could be adopted, blending aspects of both central and local/state policing.

    Many nations already use such hybrid models, combining local and central forces. Examples include decentralized policing with national standards, regional police forces with local branches, or community policing supported by centralized oversight. Countries like the United States (local police with federal backing), the United Kingdom (local forces with national coordination), Australia (state police forces supported by federal agencies), and Japan (community policing with national supervision) have all implemented these hybrid approaches.

    In my view, these countries provide strong examples for Nigeria to consider, offering valuable lessons in effective policing.

    To conclude, it is worth noting that Nigeria previously practiced local policing in the pre-independence era through native and district constabularies. This approach persisted until the 1914 amalgamation, which consolidated the local police structures of the two protectorates into a unified national framework.

    Having experienced both local and central policing models, a balanced hybrid approach—blending elements of both—could enhance the effectiveness of policing in Nigeria. It is hoped that our lawmakers will seriously consider this hybrid option as a viable alternative to the current system.

    A similar approach could be applied to deciding the most suitable system of governance for our country. This decision is currently in the final stages of refinement by our legislators, who recently conducted a retreat in Kano, Kano State, focused on constitutional review.

    In my view, when it comes to the debate over whether to maintain or replace the current system of governance, it’s clear that instead of continuing with the imported parliamentary and presidential models that Nigeria has experimented with over the past 64 years of independence, we should adapt our democracy to align with the unique dynamics and cultural characteristics of our environment. This customization could lead to a more effective and well-functioning society. Our neiboring country Ghana operates a hybrid. Perhaps that is why religion orientation of president candidates and their running mates do not matter in the country of Ghana as it is a major issue in Nigeria.

    A crucial starting point to end insecurity in our country would be to transition our policing system from a centralized structure to a state/local model, which could help curb the widespread loss of lives caused by violent actors who have been terrorizing our communities with impunity.

    Given this, any further delay in implementing the state/local policing system—an initiative that has been under consideration for 25 years since the return of multiparty democracy in 1999, and for which there is broad support across Nigeria as both the presidency and all the 36 governors reaching a concensus in February this year —would suggest that our political leaders, particularly the legislators, are neglecting their responsibility to protect lives and properties implying that they may be recklessly putting the lives of a critical mass of Nigerians at risk.

    This is a path we hope they will avoid.

     

    Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.

    To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng.