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Tag: Magnus Onyibe

  • Subdued Christmas as consequences of war – By Magnus Onyibe

    Subdued Christmas as consequences of war – By Magnus Onyibe

    A combination of the wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, which have negatively impacted the global economy, has turned 2023 Christmas, which is supposed to be a season of joy for the nearly 2.4 billion Christians across the globe representing 31% of the 8 billion population of the world , into a period of gloom and doom.

    Although African countries are not at war against each other in the manner that it would have significant implications, aside from the war between the two Sudans—the mother Sudan and its offshoot South Sudan—as well as the Ethiopian-Eritrean conflicts that have been ongoing for a very long time, Africa is bearing the brunt of the ongoing wars between Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe and the one pitching Israel against Gaza in the Middle East regions of the world.

    To put into perspective the grim reality that has led to a subdued xmas across the world, particularly in the war-torn regions and, by extension, Africa being ravaged by climate change , let us first of all underscore the issues that have triggered the crisis in Eastern Europe, resulting in a subdued Xmas by highlighting the underlying factors responsible for the current crisis situation with a view to helping find viable solutions .

    In light of the unfolding horrors of war, how can there be merry Xmas in Ukraine, which is being pounded daily with some of the deadliest arms and ammunition (short of nuclear weapon) by the Russian army?
    The war by Russia against Ukraine, which is a breakaway nation from the defunct United Soviet Socialist Republic, USSR, that is about to enter its second year, is a war that has practically pitched Western Europe and the United States of America against Eastern Europe, led by Russia.

    Somehow, it is a proxy war of sorts, as it is gradually becoming a re-enactment of the Cold War days when there was the threat of Russia overrunning Europe, prodding the US and Canada to form an alliance with some Western European countries to ward off the Russian threat leading to a polarized world in what is today known as North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO.

    Although the nuclear race aspect of the dark days of the erstwhile Cold War is now dead as it looks like it can no longer be resurrected, it was initially feared by world leaders when Russia first attacked Ukraine back in February 24, 2022, which is two months shy of two (2) years, nevertheless,the trail of death that the Russian army is leaving in the much smaller, and of course less powerful Ukraine, is quite noxious.

    Given the antecedents of the reputation of Russia during the Cold War days, the Western world, as defined by members of the Northern Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO, rose in unison in support of Ukraine, since it is a relatively small country being aggressed by a giant country, Russia, that was at one time the leader of one half of the world when it was polarized into two equal halves of east and west.

    Since the purpose of this intervention is not to apportion blames or argue about which side of the ideological divides driving the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Gaza is wrong or right,but to bring the world’s attention to the consequences of war mongering, the focus of the piece is restricted to the ensuing atmosphere of despair across the world, especially in Africa and indeed in Nigeria.

    As had been proven, the consequences of war are not just on the citizens of the theatres of the war as we have witnessed in Ukraine where at least 10,000 civilians, including more than 560 children,have been reported to have been killed so far in a war triggered by Russia and which is about to clock its two years milestone; and Gaza where about 20,000 souls are believed to have been lost since October 7 when Hamas militants invaded and murdered about 1200 and kidnapped as many as 400 Israelis in a surprise attack during the celebrations of festival of happiness and Israel launched an unprecedented and extremely deadly reprisal attack currently receiving wide spread condemnation across the world.

    But the negative fallouts of the wars have not only negatively impacted the antagonists and protagonists, but they have complicated the hunger and starvation levels even in Nigeria.
    That is because, incidentally, our country is at the same time undergoing economic reforms to unshackle and reposition the nation for growth and prosperity. But in the interim, the masses are experiencing severe hardships as the nation’s economy experiences its worst inflation rate, estimated to be in the region of 27%, a massive unemployment rate estimated at about 55%, (4.3% NBS rate ) and a debt burden in excess of N88 trillion.

    It is a combination of all these negative factors that has resulted in the emasculation of the youth population and the Nigerian masses in general, who are currently experiencing a lot of misery as reflected by a rise in the cost of transportation, that in some instances have quadrupled, and the general cost of living increasing by multiple folds, which is one of the reasons 2023 Xmas is subdued in our beloved country, Nigeria.

    Focusing first on the war in Eastern Europe, the immediate negative effect of the Russia-Ukraine war is the shortage of grain supply to the world from Ukraine, as farming has been impossible. Therefore, Ukraine, which is a net exporter of grains to the world, has been unable to sustain supply, especially to Africa and the Middle East, which depend on the war-torn country for the commodity essential for baking bread.
    Evidential of the scenario above is a recent report by the Council of the EU and the European Council that has concluded that:

    “Due to the war, Ukraine, a leading grain exporter, has seen a dramatic drop in its exports. This has resulted in major food security concerns for millions of people around the world. The actions of the EU and the United Nations have helped curb the price rise, but the outlook remains difficult.”.

    It is interesting how a war in faraway eastern Europe is having such a profound aftershock in Africa and indeed Nigeria, where the price of bread has gone out of the reach of the ordinary man owing to the hike in its price that has skyrocketed, therefore exacerbating the hunger and starvation in Africa and Nigeria.
    This is also being accelerated by climate change, as evidenced by the fact that 2023 has been declared the hottest in modern times, resulting in drought and other forms of socioeconomic challenges manifesting as misery for mankind, particularly on the continent of Africa and Nigeria, to be specific.
    Since diesel fuel is mainly sourced from refineries located in Eastern Europe, its shortage owing to the war in Ukraine is also producing negative consequences for the economy of Africa, and by extension, Nigeria, since most of the countries on the continent lack steady supply of public electricity power, hence the heavy dependence on diesel fuel to power plants in factories and homes.

    There was also the threat of Russia blocking the sea route for shipping goods across the Black Sea, resulting in the disruption of global logistics patterns, which has also crystallized into poverty beyond the Ukrainian region into Africa, which is paying a very high price for the war in faraway Ukraine.

    Also in the wake of the war, the United Nations had to negotiate with Russia to continue to allow the export of grains out of Ukraine, but the agreement brokered by Turkey had suffered several setbacks with dire consequences for the people of Africa and the Middle East, whose staple food is comprised mainly of grains procured from Europe.

    “Before the war, around 90% of Ukraine’s agricultural exports were transported by sea. After the start of the war, the Russian military blocked Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and brought exports to a virtual standstill.”

    Also, as a report by Rand Corporation indicates: “The shock of the war was one of the main factors that had slowed economic growth in 2022 to just 3.1 percent, and why the OECD projected it to slow to 2.2 percent in 2023.”
    The war, the report found, has had the greatest impact on Europe’s economy, where growth in 2023 is projected to be just 0.3 percent.

    Europe being Africa’s foremost trading partner since the Europeans were the major colonists of the continent, the snowball effect of the economic burden besetting them has negatively impacted the continent of Africa.

    Enough has been written and discussed about the war in Eastern Europe.
    To gain a more holistic insight into the effects of the two ongoing wars in the world, on Africa and, to be more specific,Nigeria, it is pertinent we also examine the consequences of the war in the Middle East between Israel and Gaza, which commenced on October 7 and has just attained a three-month milestone.

    With her mission to utterly eliminate Hamas, the militants that have been governing Gaza since 2007 and which have vowed to wipe out from the face of earth , the nation of Israel (which it accuses of occupying the ancestral land of the Palestinians) and have therefore been doing all it could to achieve the objective, the Jewish state, which is surrounded by Arabs and Muslim countries, has been on edge and therefore somehow very aggressive since the country was formed by an act of the United Nations in May 1948.

    The Institute of Security Studies (ISS) reports that given the boom-bust nature of many African economies, which rely heavily on commodities, any wild swings in these prices would have a pronounced effect on the balance of payments and fiscal positions. Global energy flows, particularly developments relating to the Strait of Hormuz, will be of concern, given its centrality to global energy supply and its emergence as a strategic target.
    It further argued thus:
    “In this context, the World Bank warned on October 30 that the Israel-Hamas conflict could trigger a global economic shock”, including oil prices rising to $150 a barrel and millions going hungry. As a result, “Policymakers will need to be vigilant”, says World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill.
    As the report further noted that “If the conflict were to escalate, the global economy would face a dual energy shock for the first time in decades—not just from the war in Ukraine but also in the Middle East.”
    Dwelling further on the risk of the cascading effect of the consequences of the war, the report also raised the fear that “higher-for-longer energy prices would also raise global inflationary pressures, leading to tighter monetary policy and a more pessimistic financial market reaction.”

    Those concerns are presently manifesting like the infamous Nostradamus predictions, and in the manner that Exxon Mobil predicted several years ago, the current
    severe climate change, which scientists believe is presently the greatest threat to mankind.

    As earlier stated, it is these existential realities around the globe that have conspired to make humanity and indeed Nigerians victims of poverty in dimensions that have not been experienced in the past in our country.

    According to the ICC report below, Africa and particularly Nigeria are more susceptible to collateral damage from the lsrael-Gaza war.
    “Social tensions have risen in countries with a large mix of Muslim, Christian, and Jewish populations, such as Nigeria. Africa’s most populous country has seen successive pro-Palestine protests, some deadly. Dynamics in Gaza may also raise terrorism risks across numerous regions as groups use the conflict to justify attacks, shift public sentiment, and drive recruitment into insurgent groups.”

    Fortunately, Nigeria as a nation has escaped the negative fallout ignited around the world by similar events in the Arab world in the past.And that can be attributed to two factors:
    The first is the economic reforms currently being undertaken the administration of President Bola Tinubu, which are underpinned by the removal of subsidies on the pump price of gasoline and the naira that was hitherto pumped up with foreign exchange earnings from crude oil and gas sales.

    Since the cessation of the subsidy regime, the naira has been in a free fall as it has been trying to find its equilibrium. A galloping inflation akin to the type experienced in Germany after the World War, during which it was reported that the price of a cup of tea could change before finishing drinking it, has gripped Nigeria, and it is constricting the country like a boa constrictor,despite strenuous efforts at taming it by the current administration.

    The removal of subsidies has caused so much trauma and misery that the masses are literally too burdened with trying to survive than to have the luxury of time to engage in the luxury of protesting against events happening in faraway foreign land in the manner that they did in the past.

    The second can be attributed to the dexterity of the security agencies, particularly the Directorate of State Security Services (DSS), which has been very proactive.
    Relatedly, there is also this hunch that rather than the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the president and the vice president in 2023 being Muslims, which had initially created anxiety, the combination is proving to be a unifying factor rather than a dividing one, as had been feared.

    The initial anxiety might have been a sign of the fear of the unknown since the concept had never been tested in Nigeria’s political space.But the assumption that all is well and will remain well may be too hasty, but the early signs suggest that
    President Tinubu and his team have been very sensitive to religious sensibilities; hence, there has been peace and tranquility with respect to not magnifying religious differences.

    To us in Nigeria, apart from inflation triggered by the removal of subsidies on premiums for motor spirit and PMS and the devaluation of the naira to about a quarter of its value when the immediate past president Mohammadu Buhari took over as president of Nigeria in 2015 and the naira was exchanging at N260/$1 to the current atrocious rate of N1,200/$1 under Tinubu’s watch,the biggest burden weighing down on the average Nigerian this Xmas is scarcity of petrol and the naira notes.

    The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN policy of redesigning the naira introduced before the 2023 general elections saw the withdrawal of old notes and the replacement of them with newly redesigned notes.
    Approximately one year following the introduction of the policy and the subsequent Supreme Court intervention, which mandated the simultaneous use of both old and new currency notes, the common citizens were spared from the arduous task of acquiring cash.
    However, the intentional decrease in the volume of naira currency notes in circulation by CBN , ostensibly aimed at expediting the transition to a cashless society, continues to inflict significant damage on the Nigerian economy.
    Accessibility to cash for the general populace which is also a fall of not printing enough new notes ,has become a privilege reserved solely for those capable of repurchasing it at the elevated prices established by currency vendors—an emerging business trend.
    This current malady in our country, that is, more often than not, the unintended consequences of public policies in which there are not enough critical thinking being invested before implementation, always manifests as a new problem replacing the old.

    Although Nigeria did not cancel Xmas as has happened in Bethlehem, lsrael , Nigerian Christians are in no less dire straights as their counterparts in lsrael Gaza/Palestine, and the rest of the world, such as Ukraine, where misery has overshadowed that is supposed to be a season of joy.
    While I would have liked to extend heartfelt Christmas wishes on this special day, the reality is that the festive spirit is subdued.
    Unfortunately, a significant number of people worldwide, especially the majority of Nigerians, may not have the opportunity to partake in the traditional joy of relishing a meal of rice and chicken, which was once an annual delight.
    This subdued atmosphere of Xmas necessitates the creation of a new vocabulary to aptly capture the socio-economic challenges faced by my compatriots. Given that President Tinubu has promised long-suffering Nigerians better days ahead in the new year, which is part of his renewed hope agenda, it may be proper to end this intervention on a promising note by urging Nigerians to be steadfast in looking ahead for a better tomorrow.
    As the pontiff, Pope Francis, lamented the world has become , “where the Prince of Peace is once more rejected by the futile logic of war, by the clash of arms that even today prevents him from finding room in the world.”

    As the leader of the Holy Sea, Pope Francis reminded the world of the current reality: “Our message every year on Christmas is one of peace and love. But this year, it’s a message of sadness, grief, and anger in front of the international community about what is happening and going on in the Gaza Strip.”

    In alignment with the pope, my prayer is that by next Xmas , peace will reign supreme all over the world, and Nigerians will have started reaping the benefits of the ongoing socioeconomic reforms.

     

    Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst, author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.
    To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng.

  • Subdued Xmas as consequences of wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East – By Magnus Onyibe

    Subdued Xmas as consequences of wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East – By Magnus Onyibe

    A combination of the wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, which have negatively impacted the global economy, has turned 2023 Christmas, which is supposed to be a season of joy for the nearly 2.4 billion Christians across the globe representing 31% of the 8 billion population of the world, into a period of gloom and doom.

    Although African countries are not at war against each other in the manner that it would have significant implications, aside from the war between the two Sudans—the mother Sudan and its offshoot South Sudan—as well as the Ethiopian-Eritrean conflicts that have been ongoing for a very long time, Africa is bearing the brunt of the ongoing wars between Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe and the one pitching Israel against Gaza in the Middle East regions of the world.

    To put into perspective the grim reality that has led to a subdued xmas across the world, particularly in the war-torn regions and, by extension, Africa being ravaged by climate change , let us first of all underscore the issues that have triggered the crisis in Eastern Europe, resulting in a subdued Xmas by highlighting the underlying factors responsible for the current crisis situation with a view to helping find viable solutions .

    In light of the unfolding horrors of war, how can there be merry Xmas in Ukraine, which is being pounded daily with some of the deadliest arms and ammunition (short of nuclear weapon) by the Russian army?
    The war by Russia against Ukraine, which is a breakaway nation from the defunct United Soviet Socialist Republic, USSR, that is about to enter its second year, is a war that has practically pitched Western Europe and the United States of America against Eastern Europe, led by Russia.

    Somehow, it is a proxy war of sorts, as it is gradually becoming a re-enactment of the Cold War days when there was the threat of Russia overrunning Europe, prodding the US and Canada to form an alliance with some Western European countries to ward off the Russian threat leading to a polarized world in what is today known as North Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO.

    Although the nuclear race aspect of the dark days of the erstwhile Cold War is now dead as it looks like it can no longer be resurrected, it was initially feared by world leaders when Russia first attacked Ukraine back in February 24, 2022, which is two months shy of two (2) years, nevertheless,the trail of death that the Russian army is leaving in the much smaller, and of course less powerful Ukraine, is quite noxious.

    Given the antecedents of the reputation of Russia during the Cold War days, the Western world, as defined by members of the Northern Atlantic Treaty Organization, NATO, rose in unison in support of Ukraine, since it is a relatively small country being aggressed by a giant country, Russia, that was at one time the leader of one half of the world when it was polarized into two equal halves of east and west.

    Since the purpose of this intervention is not to apportion blames or argue about which side of the ideological divides driving the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and Israel and Gaza is wrong or right,but to bring the world’s attention to the consequences of war mongering, the focus of the piece is restricted to the ensuing atmosphere of despair across the world, especially in Africa and indeed in Nigeria.

    As had been proven, the consequences of war are not just on the citizens of the theatres of the war as we have witnessed in Ukraine where at least 10,000 civilians, including more than 560 children,have been reported to have been killed so far in a war triggered by Russia and which is about to clock its two years milestone; and Gaza where about 20,000 souls are believed to have been lost since October 7 when Hamas militants invaded and murdered about 1200 and kidnapped as many as 400 Israelis in a surprise attack during the celebrations of festival of happiness and Israel launched an unprecedented and extremely deadly reprisal attack currently receiving wide spread condemnation across the world.

    But the negative fallouts of the wars have not only negatively impacted the antagonists and protagonists, but they have complicated the hunger and starvation levels even in Nigeria.
    That is because, incidentally, our country is at the same time undergoing economic reforms to unshackle and reposition the nation for growth and prosperity. But in the interim, the masses are experiencing severe hardships as the nation’s economy experiences its worst inflation rate, estimated to be in the region of 27%, a massive unemployment rate estimated at about 55%, (4.3% NBS rate ) and a debt burden in excess of N88 trillion.

    It is a combination of all these negative factors that has resulted in the emasculation of the youth population and the Nigerian masses in general, who are currently experiencing a lot of misery as reflected by a rise in the cost of transportation, that in some instances have quadrupled, and the general cost of living increasing by multiple folds, which is one of the reasons 2023 Xmas is subdued in our beloved country, Nigeria.

    Focusing first on the war in Eastern Europe, the immediate negative effect of the Russia-Ukraine war is the shortage of grain supply to the world from Ukraine, as farming has been impossible. Therefore, Ukraine, which is a net exporter of grains to the world, has been unable to sustain supply, especially to Africa and the Middle East, which depend on the war-torn country for the commodity essential for baking bread.
    Evidential of the scenario above is a recent report by the Council of the EU and the European Council that has concluded that:

    “Due to the war, Ukraine, a leading grain exporter, has seen a dramatic drop in its exports. This has resulted in major food security concerns for millions of people around the world. The actions of the EU and the United Nations have helped curb the price rise, but the outlook remains difficult.”.

    It is interesting how a war in faraway eastern Europe is having such a profound aftershock in Africa and indeed Nigeria, where the price of bread has gone out of the reach of the ordinary man owing to the hike in its price that has skyrocketed, therefore exacerbating the hunger and starvation in Africa and Nigeria.
    This is also being accelerated by climate change, as evidenced by the fact that 2023 has been declared the hottest in modern times, resulting in drought and other forms of socioeconomic challenges manifesting as misery for mankind, particularly on the continent of Africa and Nigeria, to be specific.
    Since diesel fuel is mainly sourced from refineries located in Eastern Europe, its shortage owing to the war in Ukraine is also producing negative consequences for the economy of Africa, and by extension, Nigeria, since most of the countries on the continent lack steady supply of public electricity power, hence the heavy dependence on diesel fuel to power plants in factories and homes.

    There was also the threat of Russia blocking the sea route for shipping goods across the Black Sea, resulting in the disruption of global logistics patterns, which has also crystallized into poverty beyond the Ukrainian region into Africa, which is paying a very high price for the war in faraway Ukraine.

    Also in the wake of the war, the United Nations had to negotiate with Russia to continue to allow the export of grains out of Ukraine, but the agreement brokered by Turkey had suffered several setbacks with dire consequences for the people of Africa and the Middle East, whose staple food is comprised mainly of grains procured from Europe.

    “Before the war, around 90% of Ukraine’s agricultural exports were transported by sea. After the start of the war, the Russian military blocked Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and brought exports to a virtual standstill.”

    Also, as a report by Rand Corporation indicates: “The shock of the war was one of the main factors that had slowed economic growth in 2022 to just 3.1 percent, and why the OECD projected it to slow to 2.2 percent in 2023.”
    The war, the report found, has had the greatest impact on Europe’s economy, where growth in 2023 is projected to be just 0.3 percent.

    Europe being Africa’s foremost trading partner since the Europeans were the major colonists of the continent, the snowball effect of the economic burden besetting them has negatively impacted the continent of Africa.

    Enough has been written and discussed about the war in Eastern Europe.
    To gain a more holistic insight into the effects of the two ongoing wars in the world, on Africa and, to be more specific,Nigeria, it is pertinent we also examine the consequences of the war in the Middle East between Israel and Gaza, which commenced on October 7 and has just attained a three-month milestone.

    With her mission to utterly eliminate Hamas, the militants that have been governing Gaza since 2007 and which have vowed to wipe out from the face of earth , the nation of Israel (which it accuses of occupying the ancestral land of the Palestinians) and have therefore been doing all it could to achieve the objective, the Jewish state, which is surrounded by Arabs and Muslim countries, has been on edge and therefore somehow very aggressive since the country was formed by an act of the United Nations in May 1948.

    The Institute of Security Studies (ISS) reports that given the boom-bust nature of many African economies, which rely heavily on commodities, any wild swings in these prices would have a pronounced effect on the balance of payments and fiscal positions. Global energy flows, particularly developments relating to the Strait of Hormuz, will be of concern, given its centrality to global energy supply and its emergence as a strategic target.

    It further argued thus:

    “In this context, the World Bank warned on October 30 that the Israel-Hamas conflict could trigger a global economic shock”, including oil prices rising to $150 a barrel and millions going hungry. As a result, “Policymakers will need to be vigilant”, says World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill.
    As the report further noted that “If the conflict were to escalate, the global economy would face a dual energy shock for the first time in decades—not just from the war in Ukraine but also in the Middle East.”

    Dwelling further on the risk of the cascading effect of the consequences of the war, the report also raised the fear that “higher-for-longer energy prices would also raise global inflationary pressures, leading to tighter monetary policy and a more pessimistic financial market reaction.”

    Those concerns are presently manifesting like the infamous Nostradamus predictions, and in the manner that Exxon Mobil predicted several years ago, the current
    severe climate change, which scientists believe is presently the greatest threat to mankind.

    As earlier stated, it is these existential realities around the globe that have conspired to make humanity and indeed Nigerians victims of poverty in dimensions that have not been experienced in the past in our country.

    According to the ICC report below, Africa and particularly Nigeria are more susceptible to collateral damage from the lsrael-Gaza war.
    “Social tensions have risen in countries with a large mix of Muslim, Christian, and Jewish populations, such as Nigeria. Africa’s most populous country has seen successive pro-Palestine protests, some deadly. Dynamics in Gaza may also raise terrorism risks across numerous regions as groups use the conflict to justify attacks, shift public sentiment, and drive recruitment into insurgent groups.”

    Fortunately, Nigeria as a nation has escaped the negative fallout ignited around the world by similar events in the Arab world in the past.And that can be attributed to two factors:
    The first is the economic reforms currently being undertaken the administration of President Bola Tinubu, which are underpinned by the removal of subsidies on the pump price of gasoline and the naira that was hitherto pumped up with foreign exchange earnings from crude oil and gas sales.

    Since the cessation of the subsidy regime, the naira has been in a free fall as it has been trying to find its equilibrium. A galloping inflation akin to the type experienced in Germany after the World War, during which it was reported that the price of a cup of tea could change before finishing drinking it, has gripped Nigeria, and it is constricting the country like a boa constrictor,despite strenuous efforts at taming it by the current administration.

    The removal of subsidies has caused so much trauma and misery that the masses are literally too burdened with trying to survive than to have the luxury of time to engage in the luxury of protesting against events happening in faraway foreign land in the manner that they did in the past.

    The second can be attributed to the dexterity of the security agencies, particularly the Directorate of State Security Services (DSS), which has been very proactive.
    Relatedly, there is also this hunch that rather than the Muslim-Muslim ticket of the president and the vice president in 2023 being Muslims, which had initially created anxiety, the combination is proving to be a unifying factor rather than a dividing one, as had been feared.

    The initial anxiety might have been a sign of the fear of the unknown since the concept had never been tested in Nigeria’s political space.But the assumption that all is well and will remain well may be too hasty, but the early signs suggest that
    President Tinubu and his team have been very sensitive to religious sensibilities; hence, there has been peace and tranquility with respect to not magnifying religious differences.

    To us in Nigeria, apart from inflation triggered by the removal of subsidies on premiums for motor spirit and PMS and the devaluation of the naira to about a quarter of its value when the immediate past president Mohammadu Buhari took over as president of Nigeria in 2015 and the naira was exchanging at N260/$1 to the current atrocious rate of N1,200/$1 under Tinubu’s watch,the biggest burden weighing down on the average Nigerian this Xmas is scarcity of petrol and the naira notes.

    The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN policy of redesigning the naira introduced before the 2023 general elections saw the withdrawal of old notes and the replacement of them with newly redesigned notes.

    Approximately one year following the introduction of the policy and the subsequent Supreme Court intervention, which mandated the simultaneous use of both old and new currency notes, the common citizens were spared from the arduous task of acquiring cash.
    However, the intentional decrease in the volume of naira currency notes in circulation by CBN, ostensibly aimed at expediting the transition to a cashless society, continues to inflict significant damage on the Nigerian economy.

    Accessibility to cash for the general populace which is also a fall of not printing enough new notes has become a privilege reserved solely for those capable of repurchasing it at the elevated prices established by currency vendors—an emerging business trend.
    This current malady in our country, that is, more often than not, the unintended consequences of public policies in which there are not enough critical thinking being invested before implementation, always manifests as a new problem replacing the old.

    Although Nigeria did not cancel Xmas as has happened in Bethlehem, lsrael , Nigerian Christians are in no less dire straights as their counterparts in lsrael Gaza/Palestine, and the rest of the world, such as Ukraine, where misery has overshadowed that is supposed to be a season of joy.
    While I would have liked to extend heartfelt Christmas wishes on this special day, the reality is that the festive spirit is subdued.

    Unfortunately, a significant number of people worldwide, especially the majority of Nigerians, may not have the opportunity to partake in the traditional joy of relishing a meal of rice and chicken, which was once an annual delight.

    This subdued atmosphere of Xmas necessitates the creation of a new vocabulary to aptly capture the socio-economic challenges faced by my compatriots. Given that President Tinubu has promised long-suffering Nigerians better days ahead in the new year, which is part of his renewed hope agenda, it may be proper to end this intervention on a promising note by urging Nigerians to be steadfast in looking ahead for a better tomorrow.

    As the pontiff, Pope Francis, lamented the world has become , “where the Prince of Peace is once more rejected by the futile logic of war, by the clash of arms that even today prevents him from finding room in the world.”

    As the leader of the Holy Sea, Pope Francis reminded the world of the current reality: “Our message every year on Christmas is one of peace and love. But this year, it’s a message of sadness, grief, and anger in front of the international community about what is happening and going on in the Gaza Strip.”

    In alignment with the pope, my prayer is that by next Xmas , peace will reign supreme all over the world, and Nigerians will have started reaping the benefits of the ongoing socioeconomic reforms.

    Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst, author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.

  • COP 28 and the allure of Dubai to Nigerians – By Magnus Onyibe

    COP 28 and the allure of Dubai to Nigerians – By Magnus Onyibe

    Just as flowers are drawn to butterflies, Nigerians are similarly captivated by Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE). To the ordinary Nigerian, Dubai embodies a fusion of London, Paris, and the bustling metropolises of New York and Los Angeles.

    For many Nigerians, Dubai serves as a quintessential hub of entertainment, particularly for individuals lacking the financial means, visa privileges, or time to venture to other continents like Europe and North America. Dubai, with its amalgamation of pleasure and business infrastructure, symbolizes a comparable experience that might otherwise be inaccessible to those facing constraints in travel resources.

    Therefore the convergence of Nigerians in Dubai for the ongoing COP38 extends beyond a typical climate change conference. At this event, the most significant threat to humanity in the current century is under discussion, and over one hundred thousand delegates from 92 countries worldwide, including scientists, political figures, and business leaders, are participating in this discourse.

    The primary objective of the 1,411 Nigerian delegates attending COP28 in Dubai was not solely focused on discussing strategies to address environmental concerns and safeguard the planet. Admittedly, a significant aspect of the agenda of some Nigerians included the fulfillment of a long-awaited desire to revisit Dubai.

    This desire arose in the aftermath of a ban imposed on the country last year, prohibiting them from visiting the city. Dubai is renowned for its appeal to individuals with hedonistic tendencies, offering an environment conducive to the satisfaction of pleasure and leisure needs. As a city, it has historically attracted those inclined towards indulging in occasionally voyeuristic preferences.

    It is important to note that Nigerians, along with citizens from 20 other African countries, were slammed with a prohibition from visiting Dubai due to a string of serious crimes, including financial fraud, prostitution, armed robbery, and involvement in cult activities.

    Subsequent to the imposition of this ban, Nigerian individuals with a vested interest in sustaining business activities redirected their focus to Istanbul, Turkey. This shift in preference is attributed to Istanbul serving as their primary hub for procuring goods intended for sale within the Nigerian market.

    Turkey seems to have positioned itself as an appealing alternative to Dubai, owing to its strategic location at the crossroads of Europe and the Islamic world. Historically recognized as Constantinople and aligned with the Western hemisphere and Christian civilization for centuries, Turkey underwent a transformation following a war waged by the Turks who conquered the Christian Byzantine empire in 1453, with the country ultimately evolving into a predominantly Islamic enclave over time.
    Her proximity to Europe (a stone throw to Germany) gives it a European outlook and access to technology, particularly from Germany; hence, good-quality products are produced there and are attractive to Nigerian traders for resale in Nigeria.

    Due to the predominant Islamic orientation in the northern region of Nigeria, which is comprised mainly of Muslims, historically Cairo, Egypt, was favored as their preferred destination for higher education in Islam, general knowledge acquisition, and leisure.

    Recognized as the focal point of Islamic activities in Africa, Cairo served as a hub for religious pursuits. Subsequently, with the emergence of Dubai as a prominent center for both trade and leisure, these northern Nigerians shifted their focus to this burgeoning city.

    The transition occurred seamlessly and organically, owing to the incorporation of traditional Islamic settings, complemented by the amalgamation of the enchanting elements found in the European and North American cities of Paris, London, New York, and Los Angeles, as previously emphasized.

    Apart from Nigerians from the Northern region who are predominantly Muslim and are drawn to Dubai due to their Islamic orientation, individuals from other regions of the country, particularly those who are non-Muslims and have historically traveled to Lebanon, often referred to as ‘Little Paris’ in the good old days for business and leisure, are also enticed by the allure of Dubai and the abundant business opportunities it offers.

    But contrary to the seamless shift experienced from Egypt and Lebanon to Dubai, Nigerians have encountered challenges in embracing Istanbul as a substitute for Dubai. Despite regulatory restrictions, the allure of Dubai persists steadfastly,arguably even intensifying.

    This phenomenon can be likened to the fervent yearning of an opium addict for a narcotics fix or the restlessness of a habitual smoker placed in a setting where smoking is prohibited.

    In light of the aforementioned scenario, it is imperative to assess the substantial contingent of 1,411 Nigerians, including 422 officials, currently participating in COP 28 in Dubai that end Tuesday 12th December.

    The seemingly excessive number of attendees from Nigeria last week sparked a significant controversy within the political sphere.

    Many critics were astonished that, amid the profound economic challenges faced by the populace resulting from the economic reforms—specifically, the elimination of subsidies on petrol pump prices and the devaluation of the naira by the current administration—there appeared to be a lavish gathering in Dubai. Nigerian public office holders were perceived to be indulging in extravagant activities at the expense of limited public funds, causing widespread disapproval.

    But it appears that the prevailing perception is not entirely accurate. So it is crucial to convey the truth to the public in order to dispel any misconceptions regarding the substantial participation of Nigerians in COP 28. This could have helped avoid the erroneous belief that the extensive attendance was merely for frivolous purposes and an unwarranted expenditure of public funds
    .
    The managers of the public affairs of the administration left that flank open for the opposition to twist and score cheap points, which, although temporary, has further dented the image of the incumbent government in the eyes of the flustered public.

    Clearly, public outrage was largely fueled by opposition parties, with Mr. Peter Obi, the 2023 presidential candidate of the Labor Party, also known as OBIDIENTS, spearheading the effort. He asserted that the government had funded the attendance of the 1,411 Nigerian citizens registered by Dubai authorities.

    Following the controversy sparked by the erroneous assertion, pertinent authorities have since clarified that government funds supported only 422 delegates, with 63 hailing from the presidency. Despite this clarification, a substantial number of Nigerians still find the figure excessive, vehemently denouncing it as an imprudent utilization of public resources.

    In justification of their decision, the officials at Aso Rock Villa and the Federal Ministry of Information have asserted that, as a prominent oil-producing nation ranking 7th among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria was obligated to participate fully in COP28.

    This commitment is particularly emphasized due to the substantial advantages associated with COP28, which presents a crucial opportunity to establish partnerships in the realm of green energy.

    The global focus on mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change, currently recognized as humanity’s paramount challenge, underscores the significance of Nigeria’s active engagement in this progressive initiative.

    The widespread protest by Nigerians in the media space against the government’s handling of the substantial delegation attending COP 28 was aimed at eliciting consequences for public officials, echoing the public outrage expressed by the British populace when it was revealed that former Prime Minister Boris Johnson hosted parties for revelry at 10 Downing Street during the COVID-19 lockdown.

    The revelation of such actions deeply scandalized and disgusted Britons, who called for inquiries on the matter.

    It is worth underscoring the fact that British citizens encountered significant challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic, including critical situations such as childbirth and serious illnesses that necessitated visits to emergency rooms. However, strict adherence to lockdown rules was mandatory, even in such life-threatening circumstances.

    Notably, Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, deviated from these regulations because, while infected with COVID-19, he undertook a journey from London to Durham, covering 264 miles, to join his family at the height of the pandemic.

    As a demonstration of their displeasure, substantial public pressure was mounted for an investigation into his actions, and calls for his dismissal gained momentum upon confirmation that he had indeed violated the law, rendering him accountable.

    Furthermore, when it came to light that the Prime Minister, Mr. Johnson himself, had been partaking in festivities at 10 Downing Street, the official residence of the British prime minister and seat of power, at a time when Britons were prohibited from gathering due to COVID-19 protocols, the public, already grappling with the hardships induced by the epidemic, expressed unwavering discontent.

    Consequently, there was a loud call for his resignation, leading to the termination of his prime ministership since the British populace was dissatisfied with his leadership style, which was deemed inappropriate.
    The negative public opinion, which had reached a crescendo, played a pivotal role in the decision for Mr. Johnson to resign as Prime Minister on June 10 last year.

    If those who orchestrated the protest against President Tinubu in Nigeria anticipated a parallel outcome to the events in the UK, I would like to remind them that just as “Edo no be Lagos,” similarly, “Nigeria no be UK.”
    Those adept at deciphering euphemisms will discern the subtlety embedded in this anecdote.

    Meanwhile, this is not the first time that President Tinubu’s administration has found itself under scrutiny due to issues related to Dubai. Following his attendance at the G-20 summit in India, President Tinubu made a stopover in Dubai as part of an investment drive.

    After productive discussions with Dubai leaders, President Tinubu’s spokesman, Ajuri Ngelari, officially announced the uplifting news that the visa ban for Nigerians traveling to Dubai had been lifted. This announcement was met with widespread enthusiasm and optimism.

    Upon the revelation that the young man’s assertion was unsubstantiated, it became evident that he had preemptively jumped to conclusions. Diplomatic matters of such magnitude typically require time to fruition, and the subsequent backlash was substantial.
    It seems the aftermath of this incident had not subsided when a new development emerged concerning the purportedly inflated count of Nigerian attendees at COP28.

    Let’s be unequivocal in stating that there is merit, rather than fault, in opposition parties scrutinizing the ruling party. This is an inherent aspect of democracy and is fundamentally advantageous for Nigerians.

    Holding their political leaders accountable for financial prudence is essential.
    As the Indian anti-colonial nationalist and political ethicist Mahatma Ghandhi posited, “Honest differences are often a healthy sign of progress.”

    The public is rightfully demanding greater fiscal responsibility and transparency from those who occupy influential positions in the corridors of power, symbolized by name plates adorning offices in Aso Rock Villa, the presidential seat of power, the National Assembly (NASS), governors’ mansions across the 36 state capitals, and state houses of assembly.

    Upon careful reflection, it is indisputable that Nigerians possess an abundance of energy, enthusiasm, and proficiency in pursuing both business and pleasure. This inclination is notably exemplified by the significant number of individuals flocking to Dubai.

    The Offshore Technology Conference (OTC), an annual event situated in Houston, Texas, USA—the epicenter of America’s oil and gas industry—has consistently attracted a significant number of Nigerian entrepreneurs.

    This gathering serves as a hub for seeking lucrative business partnerships and franchises from prominent oil and gas corporations, which actively establish a significant presence at the conference.

    I can personally attest to the fact that numerous successful business ventures in Nigeria owe their inception and growth to opportunities secured during the OTC. So, the conference has played a pivotal role in breathing life into these enterprises, contributing significantly to their current thriving status.

    Based on the aforementioned, there is a strong likelihood that Nigerian participants at COP 28 in Dubai, currently facing criticism from the online community, might soon transition into green energy entrepreneurs. This transformation, anticipated to stem from ongoing efforts to cultivate business relationships in the renewable energy sector, has already started manifesting.

    As part of the positive outcomes, Oando Clean Energy (OCEL), a subsidiary of Oando Energy Resources, has announced the matching of the federal government’s promise at COP28 to acquire 100 electric buses for mass transit as part of her efforts to reduce carbon emissions, aggravating the climate change crisis.

    So OANDO will be delivering 50 electric buses to Lagos State, and the rest will be deployed to states across the country, including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT.

    With respect to Nigerians being ridiculed for their attendance at COP28 in Dubai, it is crucial to recognize that their participation holds significant potential. Unlike those who criticize Nigerians attending international conferences and advocate for their confinement within the country, it is essential to consider the positive impact they can have.

    Suggesting that Nigeria takes cues from the decision of Malawi’s President, Lazarus Chakwera, to abstain from participating in COP28, ostensibly in a bid to reduce costs, is mischievous and uncharitable.

    The style may be worth highlighting and commended since, by nature, such public chastity amounts to playing to the gallery, which is good for the optics, but just because it is good for Malawi does not mean such an approach is equally good for Nigeria.

    For instance, as a country, Nigeria is smack in the heart of the climate change crisis because she is a major fossil fuel-producing nation, whereas Malawi is not.

    Also, as part of the COP28 agenda, a Loss and Damage Fund was launched, and over a trillion dollars has so far been raised in pledges.
    It is fortuitous that Nigerian Tariye Gbadegesin, a Harvard University-trained expert, has been appointed the Chief Executive Officer and CEO of the Climate Investment Fund, which is a platform for securing financial support to combat the climate crisis.
    Does that not represent a positive outcome for our country in the manner that Wally Adeyemo is the deputy security of the US Treasury?

    Now, I have heard and read criticisms in the mass media against the Nigerian authorities for having 1,411 attendees at COP28, which is the exact number that China, a country with a population in excess of 1.3 billion and the second richest country in the world, also featured in COP28 in Dubai.

    I need to remind critics that unlike Nigeria, which is a victim of the climate change crisis,China is one of the major polluters of the environment, resulting in the looming climate crisis. Therefore, she needs to be less enthusiastic about remedy as Nigeria, which is seeking redress, and one of the reasons Nigerians showed up in Dubai is enmasse.

    Basically, China is an aggressor in the climate change space, trying to diminish her culpability, hence her relatively tame rather than bullish contingent, while Nigeria is a victim, hence the official delegation of 422 and not 1412, as had been alleged by the usual suspects.

    In the international relations space, countries are not moralistic but often selfish.

    Hence, the UAE and indeed the Arab world, as well as fossil fuel-producing countries, are not in bed with the Western world on their agenda to end the use of fossil fuel in cars in 2030 and approve of only the use of electric vehicles, for which the advanced and industrialized world is calling for an end to fossil fuel exploration.

    But the President of COP28, Sultan El Jaber, who is one of the ministers of the UAE, has stated that such a demand to end fossil fuel exploration is premature.

    It is a comment that drew the ire of the Western and industrialized world, as reflected by the angry retort by Al Gore, a former vice president of the USA under President Bill Clinton, who, owing to the fact that he is a powerful advocate for climate change mitigation, has expressed indignation at the COP28 president’s comment.

    Meanwhile, Nigerians, driven by their entrepreneurial spirit, stand poised to contribute substantively to our economy based on the alliances and partnerships that they may develop from being involved in COP28.

    Their participation in conferences abroad often translates into increased productivity and the creation of much-needed employment opportunities for our youth.

    Given the current unemployment rate in our country, which has reached an unprecedented 54%, the infusion of entrepreneurial energy is vital. That is more so because it is this pressing concern about unemployment that is likely contributing to the potency of the social media advocacy campaigns, because, as conventional wisdom goes, the idle hand is the devil’s workshop.

    As we are all well aware, private sector initiatives operate independently of the multilateral agreements established by the government of Nigeria with various countries and supranational agencies during COP28.

    While addressing a global audience, President Bola Tinubu, alongside other world leaders at the conference, explicitly pledged to cease gas flaring in the oil-rich Niger Delta. It is widely known that gas flaring is a significant contributor to climate change, and its adverse effects are being experienced globally, with the burden disproportionately affecting less affluent regions.

    Happily, a prominent gas development company, CarbonAi, has signed an MoU with Oando during COP28 for a partnership towards the commercialization of the gas currently being flared from the company’s oil and gas operations.

    There is likely to be more aligning themselves with more Nigerian firms dedicated to oil and gas exploration and contemplating a visit to Nigeria to explore opportunities for participating in the untapped potential of the abundant gas and related resources.
    Unfortunately, since 1958, when oil and gas were discovered in commercial quantities in Nigeria, the authorities have been allowing these resources to go unconverted to beneficial use, resulting in wasteful gas flares that pose health risks to local communities.

    Environmentalists have persistently urged a cessation of this practice, but Nigeria has consistently failed to implement policies to end it due to the high technology and high cost that it entails.

    Europeans that could have helped in funding it were uninterested because of their reliance on Russian gas, which was conveniently located next door. Perhaps with Oando’s new partnership with CarbonAi, help may be on the way.

    At this juncture, it is worth emphasizing that there is currently a considerable interest in the value of gas in Nigeria among Europeans in light of the Russia-Ukraine war, which has precipitated a ban on the export of Russian gas to Western European countries, which are in dire need of it for heating, particularly in the winter.

    Regrettably, as earlier stated, our nation is essentially squandering financial resources by permitting the prevalence of noxious gas flares in the Niger Delta, as it has not been able to realize the plan of transporting them via pipelines across North Africa, such as Morocco or Tunisia, via the sea into Europe.

    The continued flaring of gas not only has adverse effects on the health of Nigerians in the affected communities but also contradicts the global trend towards responsible environmental practices.

    Furthermore, investment mobilization from Europe, especially Germany, which previously relied on Russian gas, is still possible as there is potential for redirection.

    That is because resumption of the halted gas pipeline construction from Nigeria through Morocco or Tunisia into Europe via the sea could be a more feasible and urgent alternative, gaining momentum amidst the current geopolitical challenges.

    While it is believed that significant progress has been made, one might speculate that the enthusiasm to announce the gains might have waned among officials at COP 28 due to the backlash generated when an Aso Rock Villa apparatchik spoke prematurely.

    So, there might have been a shift in tone and enthusiasm to announce accomplishments following the criticism directed at Presidential Spokesman Ajuri Ngelari for prematurely announcing the purported lifting of the visa ban by Dubai for Nigerians, a development that had not yet been finalized.

    Consequently, there is now a more subdued and cautious approach to discussing the achievements attained thus far during the conference.

    Concerning the appeal of Dubai to Nigerians, it may be less known that Nigeria has the potential to emulate Dubai’s success in Africa.

    By adopting a strategic approach akin to the one undertaken by Dubai’s leaders approximately three decades ago, when they transformed an area renowned for boat building into a thriving business and leisure hub in the desert, Nigeria could emerge as a comparable economic and recreational haven on the African continent if her leadership develops the appetite to accomplish great things and a can-do attitude.

    That is because the nation possesses abundant oil and gas resources, akin to Dubai. Furthermore, it boasts vast land and a climate that surpasses even that of Dubai.

    However, our country has suffered from a dearth of visionary leaders comparable to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan. Sheikh Zayed’s deliberate and industrious efforts transformed Dubai, initially a modest boat-building enclave, into a prominent global center for trade, tourism, and leisure.

    Can the political landscape in our nation undergo a transformative shift during President Tinubu’s tenure? The response remains within the belly of time. This is particularly noteworthy given that it has been only six months since he assumed the presidency at Aso Rock Villa, following the eventful eight-year rule of his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari.

    During his campaign for office, President Tinubu assured Nigerians through his manifesto, “Renewed Hope 2023,” that he was committed to transforming the negative narrative surrounding Nigeria into a positive one. And Nigerians have every reason to trust his pledge.

    He reaffirmed his commitment during last Tuesday’s address, conveyed through Vice President Kashim Shettima, at the annual conference and exhibition of the Society of Nigerian Engineers held in Abuja.

    “The Renewed Hope Agenda of my administration is defined by our commitment to unleashing our country’s full economic potential by focusing on job creation, access to capital for small and large businesses, inclusiveness, the rule of law, and the fight against hunger, poverty, and corruption.”

    While Nigerian politicians may hold diverse opinions on various matters, there is a unanimous consensus that President Tinubu, who has been in office for just six months, possesses the requisite experience for the role of President of Nigeria.

    Despite the current challenging economic conditions in our country, which make the transformation of headwinds into tailwinds seem like a formidable task and an impossibility, it is noteworthy that during his tenure as governor, Tinubu successfully propelled the economy and elevated Lagos State to its present status as the fifth-largest economy in Africa.

    Serving in the capacity of governor from 1999 to 2007, Tinubu played a pivotal role in establishing the groundwork for the continued success of Lagos State throughout his two terms in office and till date.

    The adage “As the morning determines the evening” aptly illustrates the proactive leadership of President Tinubu since assuming office on May 29. He has demonstrated unwavering commitment, channeling boundless energy and zeal towards the vigorous pursuit of foreign direct investments for Nigeria.
    To the chagrin of some critics, President Tinubu has undertaken extensive road shows both domestically and internationally, showcasing our country’s potential and creating opportunities for increased foreign investment.

    And COP28 stands out as a pivotal event, especially considering Dubai’s historical significance as a haven for Nigerians prior to the imposition of the visa ban on the country. It is noteworthy that an impressive delegation of 1,411 attendees participated in COP28, demonstrating a collective effort to forge partnerships and engage in discussions with other nations.

    Clearly, the primary focus was on addressing the pressing issue of climate change, a global challenge that disproportionately affects the African continent.

    Just as the delegates sought collaborative solutions to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change, reflecting a commitment to environmental stewardship on both a national and international scale,.

    During the COP27 conference in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, commitments were established to establish funds aimed at assisting vulnerable and economically disadvantaged nations in addressing the challenges posed by the climate crisis.

    On a positive note, several prominent polluting nations from both the Western world and Asia, along with significant oil and gas corporations, officially pledged financial support during COP28, estimated to be in excess of $1 trillion, and Nigeria is among the countries poised to benefit from these pledges.

    It is important to note that Nigeria experienced a severe flooding event last year, leading to multifaceted catastrophes. The aftermath of the floods extended from Taraba State in the northern region to Bayelsa State in the Niger Delta.

    Properties, including livestock, crops, and farmlands valued in billions of Naira, were adversely affected by the ocean surge. This surge, which is a direct consequence of climate change, was a key focal point at COP28 and was addressed accordingly. So the large presence of Nigerians in COP28 might have also been influenced by that as they trooped to Dubai to seek remedy.

    Aside from the magnetic appeal of Dubai for Nigerians, as previously emphasized, which contributed to a seeming exodus, another compelling factor motivating Nigerians to converge in Dubai for COP28 was the opportunity to leverage the potential benefits arising from the mitigation funds.

    COP28 enabled them to effectively communicate their distressing and appalling experiences with climate change to a global audience. The considerable presence of Nigerians at COP28 in Dubai can thus be attributed to the dual factors listed above.

    Basically, Nigeria did not attend COP28 in vain, as it did not return empty-handed.Rather, Nigerian professionals and businessmen and women closed deals, even though Nigerian Tariye Gbadegesin has been appointed as the manager overseeing one of the major climate crisis mitigation funds.

    Ultimately, contrary to the narrative pushed by opposition parties that has remained bellicose, particularly in light of the recently concluded elections in 2023, Nigeria’s active engagement in COP28 has proven to be a fruitful endeavor.

  • Budget 2024, high governance cost and public outcry – By Magnus Onyibe

    Budget 2024, high governance cost and public outcry – By Magnus Onyibe

    I would like to begin by unequivocally stating that it is imperative for Nigerians to abandon the notion that our country is inherently affluent merely due to the substantial hydrocarbon deposits beneath its soil.

    The assertion above is underscored by a sobering truth which is that with a population exceeding 200 million, a budgetary allocation of N27.5 trillion ($33 billion), and an anticipated annual income of N18.32 trillion by 2024, even as Nigeria is weighed down by a debt portfolio of N88 trillion and grappling with an inflation rate officially acknowledged at roughly 27% (though practically surpassing 30%), she cannot be characterized as affluent.

    In light of these realities, it becomes imperative to acknowledge that Nigeria, in practical terms, qualifies as a less affluent nation. This becomes apparent when contrasting its projected income of N18.32 trillion within a budget of N27.5 trillion ($33 billion) intended to cater to a population exceeding 200 million with the resources and budgets of its counterparts.

    Considering the factors mentioned above, the size of Nigeria’s budget for 2024 which falls short of expectations of some Nigerians , especially given the substantial size of its population, is nonetheless a veritable example of the aphorism:cut your coat according to your size.
    Obviously Nigeria’s budget size in 2024 is a clear case of not cutting one’s coat according to one’s size simply because although Nigeria is big, she currently does not have enough cloth (Income)to fit her large size . Hence, the authorities are demure rather than bullish in their 2024 budget estimates/proposal.

    This is particularly evident when the size of our 2024 budget is compared with peer countries such as South Africa with about 60m people having a budget of $132 billion, and Egypt’s $97 billion budget that will drive her economy with a population of 109m.

    It is imperative that government officials address the issue of excessive spending, which has been fueled by a longstanding misconception of our nation’s affluence. Since the advent of multi-party democracy in 1999, financial recklessness has become a prevalent characteristic of governance in our beleaguered country.

    The inclination towards unrestrained expenditures by public officials is pervasive throughout the various tiers of government, encompassing national, sub-national, and local/council levels. This trend spans from the federal government at the apex to the state government in the middle and, finally, to the local and council governments at the grassroots level.
    It also applies to the three branches- executive, legislative and the judiciary which has been receiving a lot of flaks following the allegations of massive exchange of fiduciary favors between members of the political class, the bar and the bench.

    In the context of our evolving democracy, there is a growing imperative for leaders at all levels of government to exercise prudence in managing our limited resources. This imperative is driven by the escalating political awareness among Nigerians, signaling a new era of activism aimed at fostering responsible governance.

    The prevailing sentiment among Nigerians reflects a commendable shift towards a more critical assessment of public office holders as citizens are expressing deep concern and disapproval regarding the misuse of our collective resources by certain officials.

    This disapproval is particularly directed at their imprudent allocation of funds towards extravagant purchases, such as luxury vehicles and seemingly trivial expenses like office perfumes, portraits of governors, and lavish meals in government houses. Additionally, there is a growing discontent with non-essential travel expenditures.

    This discontent is manifesting through a heightened public outcry, indicative of the widespread dissatisfaction with the perceived mismanagement of public funds.

    The timing of this outcry is noteworthy, occurring at a time that a very keenly contested general elections is just being concluded and against the backdrop of a challenging economic environment exacerbated by the removal of subsidies on gasoline and the cessation of naira arbitrage initiated by the previous administration approximately six months ago, following the assumption of power on May 29th.

    The current administration has implemented significant policy measures with the objective of instilling fiscal discipline in the management of the ailing economy. While these measures are anticipated to yield long-term benefits, they have, in the interim, exacerbated the plight of many Nigerians, contributing to a further decline in socioeconomic conditions.

    Notably, a survey conducted by the World Bank under the auspices of the previous administration revealed that approximately 133 million out of Nigeria’s total population of 200 million plus were already identified as multidimensionally poor.

    The urgency to address this alarming situation is underscored by the pressing need to mitigate the immediate impact of the policy changes on vulnerable segments of the population.
    Palliatory measures such as direct cash transfer to the poorest in society have been made, and arrangements are in top gear for the adoption of Compressed Natural Gas,CNG which is cheaper than petrol to power mass transit vehicles to ease the burden of high costs of transportation on the masses.

    The current reality of our nation reveals a wealth of human resources, boasting a population exceeding 200 million. Additionally, our country is abundantly endowed with natural resources, including oil, gas, gold, uranium, lithium, and more.

    However, despite these assets, Nigeria currently faces a financial challenge that hinders it from being considered a wealthy nation. The projected revenue for 2024 is estimated at less than N20 trillion, specifically N18.32 trillion.
    This financial standing is notably modest when compared to other oil – and gas-rich countries with substantial hydrocarbon deposits.

    For instance, countries such as Saudi Arabia, with a population of nearly 36 million has 11004 OPEC production quota , the United Arab Emirates (UAE) with almost 10 million population has 3, 179, and Kuwait with a population of just under 3 million has 2,811 allocation by OPEC can be said to posses huge oil wealth.
    That is in the Arabian world.
    In Europe, the likes of Norway with 5.4 million population produce 1,704 just as Denmark with slightly less than 6 million people produces 64. 6 million barrels per day in the Scandinavian region ,therefore, both countries can also be described as having oil affluence.
    Their relatively smaller population is why they all surpass Nigeria in terms of financial prosperity.
    That is even more so that Nigeria’s population which is in excess of 200m dwarfs the population of all OPEC member countries , and worse still, she is hardly able to meet her relatively small OPEC quota of 1.8m barrels per day.As such ,lack of transparency/fraud in the oil/ gas sector has been stifling her and preventing her from attaining her growth potentialls..
    Not many Nigerians are aware that Nigeria is not amongst the top ten crude oil producing countries in the world.
    The USA is the number one producing 21%. She is followed by Saudi Arabia with 13%, and then Russia is in the 3rd position at 10%.
    Canada is in the 4th position with 6% and lraq at 5% and China at the same 5% with lraq shares the 5th position.
    The UAE is the 6th at 4%, which is a position she also shares with lran that equally produces 4%..
    Brazil with 3% is ranked 7th with Kuwait, which is also ranked 7th with a 3% production capacity, which is at par with Brazil.

    So, when assessing our fossil fuel (crude oil) production, which stands at less than the 1.8 million units per day allocated to our country by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), it becomes evident that we consistently fall short of meeting this quota hence our projected income is less N18.32 trillion . This shortfall is primarily attributed to the rampant theft of our crude oil (main foreign exchange earner for our country) by organized syndicates in recent times.

    In juxtaposition, with our considerable population exceeding 200 million, it should prompt reflection among those inclined to expend our shared resources recklessly. Recent revelations by civil society organizations including one- man- riot- squads like Doherty in lagos state that have delved into details of how public funds are utilized or abused underscore the lack of prudence exercised by our governments at all three levels in the allocation of public funds.

    These expositions are manifestations of the fact that Nigeria is truly an economically challenged nation. Consequently, public officials ought to adopt a frugal approach to the utilization of our lean resources. This desired shift towards fiscal responsibility is imperative for the sustainable management of our nation’s wealth.

    Well before the current outcry regarding the repetitive frought with fraud budgetary patterns observed in both the national and state governments of Nigeria, where a notable imbalance is evident with a predominant focus on recurrent expenditures (amounting to N18.51 trillion) overshadowing the capital components (valued at N8.7 trillion), it is apparent that our nation’s economic trajectory is leaning more towards consumption than production.

    All these years that this pattern of budgeting has persisted , I have been diligently striving to advocate for a transformative shift in our leadership culture, emphasizing the importance of setting a precedent through exemplary leadership driven by patriotic goals of inclusive and all encompassing prosperity and progress of the critical mass of Nigerians.

    My endeavors were aimed at redefining the metrics by which we gauge growth and progress in both our economy and country. Central to this recommended paradigm shift is the promotion of job creation as a primary indicator, fostering the generation of wealth as a consequential outcome.

    To revisit the duration during which the national economy had prioritized consumption over production and to emphasize the ongoing disillusionment among Nigerians who have eagerly anticipated the proverbial dividends of democracy without tangible results, it is pertinent to recall my 2016 article that was widely in several mainstream and digits media platforms titled: “Let’s Judge Governments By Jobs Created.”

    This retrospective analysis aims to provide context and insight into the prevailing circumstances. Originally composed and published in April 2016, the article advocates for a critical evaluation of governments based on their capacity to generate employment.

    This perspective, as articulated in the piece, remains pertinent and applicable in the current landscape. The central argument posits that job creation serves as a pivotal criterion for assessing governmental effectiveness, a sentiment that continues to resonate with the general populace.

    Here we go:

    “A couple of years ago, the Nigerian economy was growing at between 6 and 7 per cent GDP rate. This was probably due to the fact that crude oil/gas, Nigeria’s main export earner, attracting 90 per cent of foreign exchange, FX income and which constitutes about 11 per cent of her GDP, was trading at over $100 per barrel.

    The most probable reason is that the oil boom and Nigeria’s forex reserve, which at one point was estimated at about $60 billion attracted international portfolio and equity investors, who came in droves to buy Nigerian bonds which had a mouth-watering yield of about 12 per cent – an impossibility in the industrialised world.

    By their very nature, portfolio investors are exactly what their name indicates – mere portfolio/briefcase carrying businessmen trading in papers and other intangible financial instruments as opposed to entrepreneur investors, who bring in machines and other equipment used for factory production of goods and in the process, create employment for Nigerians.

    Obviously, for many years, Nigeria had very few entrepreneurs as Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in the real economy, but attracted hordes of portfolio/equity funds managers, who take flight with their investments at the slightest suspicion of instability like oil price volatility or conflicts in the polity arising from political differences leading to tension.

    Nigeria also quickly booked a spot in the popular JP Morgan price index, owing to the excellent return on investments in bonds as opposed to manufacturing, the economy was thus adjudged to be growing at attractive GDP levels of 6 to 7 per cent earlier mentioned.

    Unfortunately, it was only on paper that the growth was being recorded as new factories were really not being set up as such neither were more people being gainfully employed, which is really what governance, political leadership and progress in a society are about.

    In that period, international trade was flourishing so well that trading in treasury bills/bonds and other financial instruments was the trend, and importation of goods rather than manufacturing; gaming the system via fake fuel subsidy invoices and crooked crude oil for refined products swaps schemes, as opposed to refining the 450,000 barrels of crude oil allocated for local refining, gained traction and thus became the new business paradigm, rather than the exception in Nigeria.

    As the so called GDP growth was exclusive to the rich, the Nigerian masses were groaning in poverty owing to the socio-economic hardship foisted on them by fake economic growth that had no local dynamics or bearing because it was not people centric and thus failed to make any positive impact on the lives of the ordinary folks.

    As a result of the implementation of the aforementioned polices that were not oriented towards alleviating poverty through employment generation, factories closed down – 185 textile mills in Kaduna State and environ (according to minister of state for industry, Aisha Abubakar) plus tyre and battery manufacturing plants that were located in Lagos, Sango Ota and surrounding areas.

    In fact, some of them, especially tire manufacturers like Michelin, migrated to neighboring countries like Ghana, where fiscal policies and infrastructure are conducive.

    Associated with factory closures is the loss of jobs and the current unemployment crisis (about 12%). besetting our country is a legacy of anti-job creation policies of previous administrations.

    As President Muhammadu Buhari mentioned in China during his current visit, the existing huge trade imbalance between Nigeria and the world’s 2nd largest economy, China has to be bridged and that can only be done if and when Nigerian business men and women start partnering their Chinese counterparts to produce locally, the items that we are currently importing.

    A critical facilitator or ingredient for such business relationship to blossom is stable supply of electricity and other infrastructure that enhance manufacturing such as transportation facilities like improved road networks, more modern railway lines and efficient sea and air ports to enhance distribution of goods.

    The present situation, whereby the only business model is importation of Chinese finished products into Nigeria and export of our crude oil to China, does not augur well as it is antithetical to the erstwhile import substitution policy of Nigeria, which President Buhari has vowed to pursue more vigorously.

    Hopefully, apart from funds, one of the things that the president and his team currently visiting China, would seek to borrow from the Chinese, is how they dealt with the inadequate power and energy challenges that initially hobbled her economic growth but was resolved and thereafter enabled China achieve the ‘Great Leap’ that propelled her into the prime position of being the foremost factory to the world.

    The construction of a dam over the famous guangtze river (the 3 gorges dam) that stretches across four hundred miles and was responsible for most of the monsoons that led to loss of millions of lives, helped China achieve energy sufficiency, and therefore a good candidate for emulation by Nigeria as we benchmark that country for progress.

    With the unprecedented N1.8 trillion allocated to capital projects in budget 2016, Nigeria can be transformed into a major construction site, especially if the $6 billion loan that is being vaunted as a promise from China for investment in infrastructure becomes reality.

    From harnessing electricity through solar power and wind mill factories to be sited in the desserts adjacent to Katsina and Kano states, to converting the hydro resources abundant in mambilla plateau in Taraba state, into a dams for generation of electricity power like the existing ones in Shiroro and Kainji area of Niger State.

    And by also taking advantage of the gas fields preponderant in the Niger Delta, coupled with leveraging the huge coal deposits in Enugu State and environ for utility as coal mines, Nigeria would be able to power factories in partnership with Chinese investors for manufacturing of goods to satisfy our local consumption needs and perhaps with enough to export to neighboring countries.

    Given the scenario above, it now behooves each of the 36 governors and 774 local government chairman nationwide to woo and lure entrepreneurs to their domains by making them more investor-friendly through provision of enabling environment like roads and electricity infrastructure, as well as incentives like tax holidays and private public partnership (PPP) arrangements.

    So, going forward, instead of focusing on the size of the budget set aside for a project, and the value of the contracts awarded in terms of the quantum of funds to be disbursed as contract sum, let’s start judging our governments both at the federal, state and local government levels by the number of jobs created through their development initiatives to determine their impact in their domain.

    Currently, growth and progress in our economy are measured by the gross domestic product (GDP), which is a sophisticated barometer of the sum total of volume and value of economic activities carried out in a specific period in a community or country.

    Experience in Africa, particularly in sub-Sahara Africa, has shown that the method is kind of warped, as it mainly captures the fortune of the top 1 per cent super rich and hardly reflects the misfortune of the 99 per cent long suffering working and jobless masses in the middle or lower rung of the ladder.

    During a recent debate on whether or not GDP is an optimal development indicator in Africa, following the palpable poverty manifesting on the streets in Africa, from Kano to Kigali, despite impressive GDP growth in Africa, it was reported that, that the immediate past Africa Development Bank (AfDB) president, Francis Kaberuka, amongst others bureaucrats noted that GDP may not be a proper gauge.

    I would like to stretch that thought process further by adding that GDP is probably a deceptive measure of the state of the economy in Africa, as it does not directly or immediately reveal the number of people in the society that have roofs over their heads and food on their tables.

    By applying a new rule, such as the number of people in employment as a yard stick for measuring progress and development in Nigeria, the true state of affairs can really be determined because every employed person is more likely to afford to rent or own a home and would also be able to have the proverbial three, 3 ‘square’ meals a day.

    Another yardstick Nigeria could adopt for gauging progress in our society should be inflation rate. This reflects the hunger or poverty rate in society because it is a direct measure of the cost of food, housing, transportation, health care, and other essential utilities in society.

    Following the current dislocations in the economy of Nigeria, inflation is about 10.8 per cent, according to the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

    To get a clearer picture of how bad such inflation rate is, compare it to UK’s rate, which is a mere 0.5 percent. Clearly, from the foregoing scenarios, unemployment and inflation rates in a society would serve as better, more practical, and realistic prognosis than the sophisticated GDP tool applied in the industrialised Western economies.

    This is why it is very important to make a strong case for a paradigm shift to using job creation to assess the impact of our elected political office holders, particularly for those in the executive arm of government.

    No longer would ministers and commissioners at the federal and state levels respectively, after the weekly or monthly federal or state executive council meetings, merely announce the value of the contracts awarded in terms of money to be expended.

    Henceforth, emphasis should be on the number of jobs to be created and the impact of the projects on the people in the community in particular or society at large. That is the change Nigerians voted for and the least they expect now.”

    In the aforementioned segment of the 2016 article reproduced above , my contention was that it is imperative to reconsider the reliance on the employment rate as a Key Performance Indicator (KPI)

    At that time, President Buhari was in office, and I proposed a renaming of the Ministry of Labor and Productivity to the Ministry of Employment and Productivity. This adjustment would have more accurately aligned with the central emphasis of his administration, which was perceived to be oriented towards the welfare of the populace.

    Today, a consistent recommendation is being made to President Tinubu that to truly foster change in our country, a pivotal shift should occur in our approach, where the paramount criteria for gauging socio-economic development becomes the quantity of jobs generated within our society. This shift is posited as the transformative factor of his tenure.

    In essence, the proposal advocates redirecting our evaluation focus. Rather than fixating on the budgetary magnitude allocated to a project or the value of contracts disbursed, measured in terms of the quantum of funds designated as the contract sum, the proposal suggests a recalibration

    Let us assess the efficacy of our governments, spanning federal,state, and local levels,by the metric of jobs created through their developmental initiatives. This approach is being advocated to ascertain their impact on their respective domains.

    Despite the unheeded calls made approximately eight (8) years ago, the existing challenges within the political landscape, stemming from the radical policy shifts initiated by the current administration to extricate our economy from its state of arrested development six months ago after the preceding administration reversed the economic and political gains that had been made in the past four decades , have heightened the awareness of crucial stakeholders. This heightened political awareness placing more emphasis on probity in government has prompted a renewed appeal for greater prudence in executing the budget for 2024.

    In order to align with the prevailing national sentiment and cater to the majority of Nigerians who support President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, it is advisable to reintroduce austerity measures into governance. This approach echoes the fiscal discipline observed during the tenure of President Shehu Shagari and Vice President Alex Ekwueme from 1979 to 1983.

    The period is remembered for a stringent fiscal policy implemented in response to a significant economic downturn triggered by a substantial decline in crude oil prices, which has been serving as the primary source of our country’s foreign exchange revenue.

    The profound economic challenges manifested themselves in widespread poverty, impacting a considerable number of Nigerians. In response to the dire state of the economy, General Muhammadu Buhari orchestrated a coup d’état at the end of 1983, overthrowing the elected governments of Shagari and Ekwueme. Subsequently, a military dictatorship was imposed, marking a significant shift in governance.

    The truncation of Nigeria’s nascent democracy at the time had enduring consequences inemical to democracy , spanning a significant period of 16 years. During this time, the nation found itself under the influence of successive autocratic regimes, characterized by a series of coup d’états. It wasn’t until 1999, a span of 24 years ago, that multi-party democracy was restored, marking a pivotal moment in the nation’s political landscape.

    It is ironic that precisely forty (40) years ago, in 1983, General Buhari disrupted democracy as the leader of the military juntas that seized political control in Nigeria through a military coup, forcibly removing an elected democratic government from power.

    Fast forward to 2015, exactly eight (8) years ago, and the same Buhari assumed the leadership of Nigeria in a democratic setup. Since then, our country has experienced humongous socio-economic and political set backs necessitating a president with exceptional boldness and creativity, such as Bola Tinubu, to renew the hope of the masses who have been profoundly affected by acute mismanagement of the economy and country resulting in a high level of despondency palpable across the country.

    Among the challenging policy decisions he must undertake, one crucial task is to alleviate the prevailing aversion towards the International Monetary Fund (IMF) among Nigerians. He must do so through enlightenment that entails the re-evaluation of the IMF its value proposition package. The skepticism is rooted in the collective memory of a contentious debate that transpired in 1984/85, centering on the advisability of securing a bailout loan from the United Nations (UN) funding agency.

    During that period, the majority of Nigerians perceived the removal of subsidies on gasoline and the devaluation of the naira as a precarious endeavor that would not be accepted by the masses that gotten acultuzerized to it.This sentiment persisted until President Tinubu assumed leadership at the Aso Rock Villa on 29 May and made the decision to literally take the bull by the horn , dispelling the notion of impending social upheaval His adept handling of the situation underscored the public belief that such measures were imperative and aligned with the course of responsible governance.

    The public’s increasing political awareness, as evidenced by their scrutiny of the three branches of government, has prompted inquiries into the judicious allocation of our common wealth. However , a well-justified loan application for productive purposes aligns with the imperative to invest in production.

    Nevertheless , public office holders must be mindful of the demands of the masses, who seek accountability and sacrifice in navigating the challenging economic climate resulting from necessary but unfriendly policies aimed at resetting our nation and economy

    There are compelling justifications for opting for the IMF loan.Firstly, Nigeria has successfully fulfilled the two crucial conditions set by the IMF for eligibility since 1984/5 – the elimination of subsidies on petrol and the Naira – and this accomplishment was achieved independently, without any prodding from the agency by President Tinubu in 2023.

    The second noteworthy rationale lies in the unparalleled cost-effectiveness of the IMF loan, making it the most economical option by all metrics. With Nigeria being a contributor to the fund, there is no more opportune moment to realize the advantages associated with this financial arrangement in the form of a lifeline .

    While it is understandable that a significant number of Nigerians harbor reservations about the country incurring more loans, however it is an unavoidable necessity, as the nation requires financial resources to extricate itself from the current fiscal predicament it finds itself in. In any case, while obtaining a loan is imperative , our public office holders must adopt a cost-conscious approach by exhibiting increased frugality to reduce the overall cost of governance. This involves actively addressing and rectifying any financial leakages to prevent potential uprisings from the masses dissatisfied with the leadership due to profligacy.
    Implementing the Steve Oronsaye recommendations for the reduction of the size of governments via consolidation of Ministries, Departments and Agencies , MDAs of government commends itself for adoption at this point in time that cost cutting must be adopted as a critical policy of government so that it may not only claim that it is working,but also seen to be working by Nigerians with frugality as guiding principle as it is demanding from the suffering masses.

    Drawing from my personal experience as a former commissioner in Delta State cabinet from 2003 to 2007, it would be remiss and rather neglectful of me not to share insights into governmental budgeting.

    In reality, budgets are predominantly shaped by contractors who, in anticipation of securing business in the upcoming year, present their proposals to pertinent officials responsible for budget preparation ahead of the budgeting circle.
    They do so by engaging executives in leadership roles, such as the President, Governors, Ministers, or Commissioners at both national and sub-national levels,capitalizing on their personal biases driven by ethnic and familial affinities in presenting projects for inclusion in the upcoming budget.

    They entice these officials with the promise of benefits, not only in financial returns but also by strategically placing these projects within their constituencies.

    Given the inherent susceptibility of human nature, succumbing to such propositions becomes challenging for individuals in positions of authority, making them vulnerable to these tactics.

    Given the circumstances outlined above, one could confidently assert that the establishment of the railway line (under construction) connecting Katsina, ex -President Buhari’s hometown, to Maradi in the Niger Republic—where he maintains familial ties—was not initially conceived by the former president.

    Exploiting his personal agenda, it is plausible that the development of this railway link was a collaborative effort involving contractors and public officials in relevant agencies . These individuals astutely harmonized their personal ambitions with the president’s fervor for reestablishing connections with his relatives in Niger Republic—a consequence of the historical division and separation of kiths and kin brought about by the infamous partitioning of Africa in Berlin, Germany, in 1884.

    Similarly, the inclusion of a proposal to acquire a yacht for President Tinubu in the 2023 supplementary budget had stirred up public outcry. But it is highly improbable that this proposal originated from the current government, let alone President Tinubu, who found himself under scrutiny. Consequently, he may have been savaged for something he is innocent of.

    Nevertheless, in the present era where budgets are mandatory public disclosures and expenditure details are readily accessible to the public, including organizations such as BudgetIT and Statissence aiding in data interpretation, public office holders are obligated to act with increased responsibility. This is crucial to avoid eliciting public discontent and backlash, as citizens closely monitor how their shared resources are utilized.
    Make no mistake about it: the current trend of cost consciousness by the masses marks a new phase in the deepening of democracy in Nigeria, which has traversed various stages of maturity of our experience in the practice of Western democracy. This development bears a resemblance to the historical progression in England that led to the establishment of the House of Commons alongside the House of Lords. The latter had, until then, been the sole parliamentary body endowed with the authority to allocate public funds and enact laws until there became a need to involve representatives of the people from different counties were appointed by king Edward in 1327 England as knights of the shire but who were originally commoners to join the traditionally titled lords and the king in making laws to govern society as such got involved in governance.

    While numerous challenges may have marred the general elections in 2023, experience underscores the notion that occasional setbacks are intrinsic to progress. Thus, it is inevitable that public office administration will undergo refinement in a somewhat self correcting manner based on experience as we go through the curve of continuous learning process before the forthcoming general elections.

    The 2007 general elections, which brought the late President Umaru Yar’dua (2007–2010) into office, were widely criticized for their poor organization. Consequently, President Yar’dua established the Electoral System Reform Committee, chaired by Justice Lawal Uwais, commonly referred to as the UWAIS Commission.

    This commission formulated a comprehensive set of proposals aimed at enhancing our electoral system. Unfortunately, although a few aspects were adopted and included in the Electoral Act 2022, a significant portion of these recommendations were not implemented, contributing to the challenges evident in the 2023 elections, which are currently under resolution.

    Hence, it comes as no surprise that the shortcomings observed during the 2023 elections are currently being addressed through collaborative efforts involving the National Assembly,NASS, and civil society organizations, spearheaded by YIAGA Africa.

    This initiative was manifested through a recent town hall meeting held in Abuja, focused on reviewing the outcome of Elections 2023 and formulating recommendations for amendments or changes to the existing Electoral Act 2022 and rules in the 1999 constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria by the 10th National Assembly, NASS.

    Given this context, it wouldn’t be astonishing if Budgetit and Statisense also collaborated in the near future with the executive branch of government, both at the national and subnational levels, to hold a town hall meeting.The primary goal of such collaboration would be to bridge the evident gap in the management of public funds by the executive branch, a matter that has recently triggered public discontent.

    In summary, our nation stands on the brink of leveraging opportunities embedded in the identified failures of the 2023 elections, provided we opt for the prudent course of learning from our mistakes.

    Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst, author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng.

  • Is Tinubu reforming Nigeria without concept or brave, but not perfect leader? – By Magnus Onyibe

    Is Tinubu reforming Nigeria without concept or brave, but not perfect leader? – By Magnus Onyibe

    President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has initiated a multitude of policy reforms in our country over the past six months, indicating an active administration. However, tangible evidence of the positive impact of these reforms is not yet apparent. Currently, his work may seem thankless as it is not completed to a point where the masses can readily appreciate it. Despite this, President Tinubu’s regime is undeniably off to a promising start.

    As we are well aware, the visible manifestation of a pregnancy does not occur on the first day a man impregnates a woman. It typically takes approximately nine (9) months for a pregnant woman to develop a noticeable baby bump, progress through the stages of pregnancy, and ultimately give birth.

    Similarly, the development and implementation of government policies and programs undergo a comparable process. The timeline for a government program or policy to materialize is even lengthier than the gestation period of a child. This protracted duration is reflected in the tenures of governments or the terms of elected public officials, which commonly span a minimum of 4-6 years.

    This extended time frame is necessary to ensure the comprehensive planning, execution, and evaluation of policies and programs, mirroring the intricate and time-intensive nature of fostering meaningful societal change.

    In Nigeria, there exists a customary limitation of two four-year terms for the presidency, mirroring the governance structure observed in the United States, that is linked to the fact that Nigeria adopted this presidential governance system from the USA.

    In my assessment, considering that President Tinubu has been in office for a relatively brief period of only six months, expecting immediate dividends from his policies and programs is unrealistic.

    So, the deliberate question intrinsic in the title of this piece serves the purpose of addressing concerns that have surfaced in public discussions, reflecting the inquiries and uncertainties on the minds of certain Nigerians.

    The unequivocal response to the inquiry, “Is President Tinubu Reforming Without Concept?” is a resounding no.
    Contrary to the allegations made by detractors, Tinubu’s reforms are meticulously conceptualized, marked by aggressive transformations in the economic and sociopolitical fundamentals of our nation—unprecedented in their scope and impact as has been laid out in this discourse.

    After a cursory look it would become obvious that President Tinubu exhibits bravery by directly confronting challenges instead of avoiding them, although he is not without imperfections. Unlike his predecessors, who shied away from combating the powerful petrol subsidy mafia, Tinubu has chosen to confront this issues bedeviling Nigeria head-on.

    Numerous Nigerian leaders, spanning multiple regimes, were challenged and ultimately defeated by the petrol subsidy mafia. This resistance persisted through the tenures of military heads of state, including Gen. Mohammadu Buhari (1983-1985), Gen. Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (1985-1993), and Gen. Sani Abacha (1993-1998).

    The challenge endured into the democratic era, with Chief Olusegun Obasanjo’s presidency (1999-2007) and continued through the administrations of Umaru Yar’adua and Goodluck Jonathan (2007-2015).
    Former President Buhari’s eight (8) years reign is generally believed to have reversed the fiscal gains made by previous administrations with subsidies in petrol and naira becoming more deeply entrenched and corruption assuming unprecedented dimension.

    President Tinubu’s courage in addressing this longstanding issue sets him apart, demonstrating a willingness to tackle challenges that his predecessors avoided.

    By retaining the subsidies on petrol and the naira, which were akin to a suffocating giant anaconda constricting our nation, the leaders in question implicitly share responsibility for the current hardships endured by Nigerians.

    The only leader from the past who bears less culpability for subjecting Nigerians to unnecessary suffering is General Ibrahim Babangida. He attempted to address the subsidy issue on Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) by introducing the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP).

    This homegrown initiative served as an alternative to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) conditions for providing a loan to Nigeria, aiming to help the country navigate financial challenges.

    Regrettably, this endeavor faced a spectacular failure due to a lack of political strength to see it through to a logical conclusion.

    At this juncture, it is pertinent to note that the reforms advocated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 1985, which the military regime of President Babangida replaced with a domestic alternative known as the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP), are akin to the reforms initiated by President Tinubu since assuming office in Nigeria on May 29th of this year. These reforms have been consistently implemented through executive and parliamentary bills signed into law over the past six months, all of which are aimed at resetting the nation and the economy with a view to putting the ship of state on even keel.

    While the nomenclature “Tinubunomics” has not officially been labeled as his reform policies identity, some of us (yours truly in particular) have colloquially adopted this term. This inclination stems from the discernible pattern observed in the economic and financial landscape of Nigeria since his inauguration on May 29, approximately six months ago and which mimicks Bidenomics in the USA that entails a package of reforms revolving around investments in infrastructure , empowering education and workers to grow the middle class thereby boosting employment and rescuing the economy. The appropriation and investment of $1.9 trillions dollars COVID 19 pandemic rescue package aimed at significantly impacting the socioeconomic landscape of that country , appears to tie in with the rescue package of N5 billion that Tinubu’s administration has advanced to the 36 states of the federation to cushion subsidy removal fallouts on the masses .

    This media intervention seeks to systematically consolidate and analyze the multitude of policies articulated during this six months period of Tinubunomics . The primary objectives include elucidating the rationale behind these policies, delineating the criticisms that have accompanied the introduction and execution of select initiatives, and, ultimately, furnishing the public with a comprehensive understanding of the anticipated outcomes as envisioned by the current administration.

    By undertaking this effort,it is hoped that we can dispel any misconceptions held by skeptics regarding the perceived disconnect between the policies and programs of the current administration and the expectations of the Nigerian populace. It is essential to rectify the inaccurate notion circulating in the public sphere.

    Upon closer examination of the prevailing circumstances, characterized by a sense of urgency, it becomes evident that despite the initial rapidity in policy formulation – exemplified by the president’s pronouncement on the abolition of petrol subsidy during his inaugural speech on May 29 – there exists a method to the seeming disorder .

    President Tinubu’s address in Berlin, Germany, as part of the Germany-Africa Campact meeting during the G-20 summit, has been lauded for its masterful display of salesmanship.

    “….look at me—I come from the private sector, trained by Deloitte. I served as the treasurer in Exxon Mobil. Define corporate governance in any way, and I am in it. I governed Lagos for eight consecutive years. Today, I can proudly beat my chest that Lagos state is on the horizon and the fifth-largest economy in Africa, rising from ground zero.

    “This is the track record that led me to the presidency. Nigerians voted for me for reforms, and from day one of my inauguration, I implemented the reforms. My inaugural speech did not disclose what I would do. I removed the fuel subsidy that is a great burden to Nigerians from the moment I stepped into office.

    “The arbitrage regime is gone forever. Now, you can bring your money in and out as you wish. If you encounter any problems, rest assured that I have built one of the most reliable teams Nigeria has seen to address them.

    “I appeal to you to forget the past and focus on building a relationship that removes obstacles, fostering progress and prosperity in Nigerian-German relations.You can rely on us; we can rely on you; both of us can chorus Hallelujah at the same time….”
    It incredible that in his apt presentation president Tinubu front loaded the apparent negative reputation challenges shackling Nigeria and addressed the fears of his audience which is a strategic way of getting investors to buy into their initiative. By so doing he exhibited a trait identified as a deal clincher in
    the book titled: “Backable. The Surprising Truth Behind What Makes People Take A Chance On You” written by Suneel Gupta a faculty member in Harvard university where he teaches how to be backable.

    Mr Suneel argues in his unique book which Mike Krieger co-founder of Instagram endorsed in the following glowing terms: “Backable provides a super-readable and actionable look at how to make your ideas take flight. Whether you are pitching a brand new startup or an idea for your company’s next product , you will find a wealth of insights and stories throughout ” and Mr Reid Hoffman, co-founder of LinkedIn amongst other notable authorities also took notice of and recommended it thus: “Whether you want to get ahead inside a company or build a start up from the ground up, this fascinating book is a must read”.

    It is not a mean feat that president Tinubu’s marketing pitch to the various audiences from France to India, United Arab Emirates, UAE, and Saudi Arabia where he has visited in the past six (6) months in quest of foreign direct investments into our country, can be likened to “secret steps that anyone can take to stand out and achieve their dreams” which is how Reshma Saujani, founder of Girls Who Code characterized the sagacity displayed by President Tinubu during his marketing storms as encapsulated by the nuggets of wisdom in the book by Suneel earlier referenced.

    Before delving further into an analysis of the concrete measures undertaken by the current administration to steer our nation away from the precipice of collapse by attracting foreign investors to bolster the Nigerian economy, fostering job creation, and enhancing prosperity, it is imperative to scrutinize the underlying reasons for Nigeria’s fundamental economic challenges.

    This examination is aimed at highlighting the necessity for increased discipline among public servants in managing the country’s limited resources and the formulation of policies conducive to a transformative journey akin to Singapore’s remarkable progression from a third-world to a first-world nation within a relatively brief time frame.

    Aside from the unjust trade practices imposed by industrialized nations on African countries, another significant factor contributing to Africa’s, particularly Nigeria’s, economic struggles is the prevalence of theft, graft, and corruption among public officials, including both politicians and civil servants.

    This assertion finds support in the case of Mr. Jonah Ogunniyi Otunla, who served as the Accountant General of the Federation from 2011 to 2015 in Nigeria. During this period, Mr. Otunla openly admitted to defrauding government of public funds out of which he is refunding a substantial sum of N6.3 billion. That is likely a minuscule portion of the public funds he had illicitly diverted from the federal government treasury while holding the position of the country’s treasurer.

    The successor to the role of Accountant General of the Federation, Mr. Ahmed Idris, similarly faced legal action in 2022 when he was apprehended by the nation’s anti-graft agency, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), on charges related to the misappropriation of a staggering N80 billion Naira.

    A recent updated report reveals that the aggregate sum of public funds pilfered by the Accountant General of the Federation (AGF) and his accomplices, who are presently undergoing trial in Nigerian courts,has surged to N109 billion.

    In a prior instance, Mr. Abdulmalik Maina, a senior public official entrusted with the task of recovering pension funds lost to corruption syndicates within the pensions office, paradoxically became implicated in embezzling the very funds he was assigned to reclaim for the government. Although he was tried and sentenced to incarceration, the current status of his serving term in any penitentiary remains uncertain.

    The cornerstone of our nation’s economy lies in the exploration and export of crude oil and gas, a vital source of foreign exchange earnings. It is approximated that a minimum of 80% of our foreign exchange income is derived from the export of these petroleum products.

    Nigeria’s allocated export quota from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) stands at 1.8 million barrels of crude oil per day. However, as of June of this year, approximately six months ago, the officially available quantity for export was less than 1 million barrels. The shortfall is primarily attributed to the rampant theft of crude oil from the pipeline responsible for transporting the product to the export terminal.

    Despite the encouraging news of a current increase in crude oil production to approximately 1.3 million barrels, credited to enhanced surveillance and anti-theft measures implemented by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) Ltd, the nation’s oil giant, which engaged Tantita Security for pipeline protection in the past year.

    Sources within the oil industry have disclosed that an astonishing amount of funds, were being lost to international crude oil theft syndicates that held sway in the oil and gas-rich Nigerian Niger Delta region. This situation persisted until recently when authorities discovered their clandestine pipelines used for siphoning products and successfully apprehended vessels engaged in transporting stolen goods, subsequently setting them ablaze.

    Arising from the above revelations, a significant conduit for draining our nation’s wealth is corruption perpetrated by past leaders. One notable example is the late Gen. Sani Abacha, a former head of state who unexpectedly passed away in 1998. It is widely believed that he embezzled billions of dollars, dispersing the ill-gotten gains across multiple countries worldwide.

    Following his demise in controversial circumstances, a substantial portion of Abacha’s looted funds, concealed in approximately half a dozen countries, has been gradually repatriated to Nigeria in periodic installments. Notable among these countries are the United States, Switzerland, the relatively obscure Lichtenstein, and France, among others.

    The consensus is that Abacha, the military dictator, pilfered and concealed up to six billion dollars in foreign jurisdictions.

    Due to the implementation of misguided economic policies, such as subsidies on petrol and the exchange rate of the naira with foreign currencies, as previously mentioned, our nation has experienced a situation where expenditures surpass income.

    Furthermore, during President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight (8) years two (2) terms tenure, the prevalence of corruption reached alarming levels. Despite our abundant human and mineral resources, our country’s fortunes plummeted, leading to a distressing state of affairs where 133 million out of the 200 million citizens find themselves ensnared in what economists term as multidimensional poverty.

    The prevailing situation of inheriting a financially distressed nation appears to be the impetus behind President Tinubu’s endeavors to arrest the downward trajectory of our economy and the nation’s position in the human development index.

    Daron Acemoglu, a Turkish-American economist, and James A. Robinson, a British political scientist, presented a comprehensive analysis of economic development in their seminal work, “Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty.” This work serves as a valuable framework for comprehending why Nigeria, despite its abundant human and natural resources, has continued to face economic challenges and persist as a nation marked by poverty.

    In their 2012 publication, the authors contested prevalent explanations, asserting that commonly cited factors such as geography, climate, culture, religion, race, or the lack of political leadership awareness fall short in comprehensively accounting for certain phenomena.

    To reinforce their arguments, the authors conducted a comparative analysis of case studies involving various countries. Notably, they underscored instances such as the disparity in economic outcomes between North and South Korea, where analogous factors resulted in divergent trajectories.

    Acemoglu and Robinson assert that the pivotal factor for economic prosperity lies in the establishment of inclusive economic and political institutions. Their argument posits that inclusive institutions facilitate widespread participation in decision-making processes and cultivate incentives for the expression of talent and creativity. In contrast, the authors contend that extractive institutions, designed to benefit a privileged minority, impede economic growth.

    Drawing on historical events like the Glorious Revolution in Great Britain to underscore the significance of democratic pluralism in fostering economic development, proponents assert that China’s remarkable economic growth can be attributed to the adoption of inclusive economic policies by its leadership.

    This democratic pluralism, akin to the approach embraced by President Tinubu, is evident in his recent initiatives over the past six months. During this period, he has actively pursued policies aimed at enhancing Nigeria’s productive capacity by dismantling barriers to entry across various sectors, with a particular focus on public utilities.

    In addition to discontinuing subsidies on petrol and the national currency (naira), which have markedly rubbed off on society harshly, President Tinubu has enacted four bills that are reshaping Nigeria’s socioeconomic landscape.
    Some of these policies particularly the electricity bill is expected to facilitate the catapulting the economy from less than $400m economy to one trillion dollar one which is the target of the current administration.

    That ambition is realizable if electricity production is ramped up to the extent that Nigerian economy can operate on a twenty fours a day , seven days a week (24/7)basis.

    It is my contention that, despite the apparent hardship endured by Nigerians,President Tinubu’s comprehensive reform policies, underpinned by the Renewed Hope agenda, collectively aim to provide the populace with a revitalized quality of life.

    Consequently, the reforms implemented by this administration can be characterized as possessing a discernible coherence and cadence.

    Consider the context of public electricity production. While the baseline for maintaining a stable electricity supply is set at about 33,000 megawatts, Nigeria falls significantly short, providing slightly more than 12,000 megawatts with only about 4000 available for distribution to end users.

    The recent enactment of the electricity power bill by President Tinubu on June 12 marks a transformative moment for the sector. Initially semi-liberalized in 2005 and further reformed in 2013, the electricity sector has undergone a shift reminiscent of the banking and telecommunications industries.

    Previously restrained by government control, the aforementioned sectors are now driven by private sector entities following the removal of entry barriers which is why they are formost contributors to the GDP of our country.

    A bit of background information on the situation which president Tinubu is building upon in the electricity power sector is in order.

    In 2013, the federal government implemented a strategic move to reform the power sector and foster growth by privatizing 11 electricity distribution companies (DISCOs) and six generating companies (GENCOs). Simultaneously, the government retained full ownership (100%) of the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN).

    This initiative was part of a broader plan to enhance the sector’s efficiency and stimulate economic development. Ongoing comprehensive reforms in Nigeria’s power sector are geared toward expanding capacity, increasing electricity accessibility, and upgrading transmission infrastructure.

    Traditionally, Nigeria has primarily relied on thermal and hydroelectric sources for power generation, boasting an installed capacity of approximately 12,522 MW. However, the recent signing of the new electricity act 2023 by President Tinubu signals a robust exploration of gas-based electricity generation, marking a strategic shift in the country’s energy landscape.

    Now, investors including state governments are free to make investments in the power sector. The transmission aspects of electricity power sector had been under the control of government which is a friction point between GENCOS and DISCOS

    In addition to the emphasis placed on electricity by President Tinubu, three other key legislative initiatives have been prioritized . These include the Judicial Officers Law, the Access To Higher Education Act, and the Data Protection Law.

    It is worth recalling that during his inaugural address on May 29, President Tinubu committed to building upon the accomplishments of his predecessor, former President Muhammadu Buhari. In delineating his vision, President Tinubu also outlined various forthcoming changes and initiatives.

    Significant changes have recently transpired. On June 8, the Judicial Officers Law, officially titled ‘Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (fifth alteration) (No.37), 2023,’ was enacted.

    This legislation establishes a standardized retirement age of 70 for judges and ensures uniformity in the pension rights of judicial officers across different levels.

    Furthermore, the Access to Higher Education Act, signed into law on June 12, is designed to provide financial assistance to Nigerian students in tertiary institutions.

    This law that would be effective from January 2024, aims to facilitate students’ access to interest-free loans from the Nigerian Education Loan Fund. Eligibility for these loans is contingent on the student’s or family’s annual income being less than N500,000.

    The Data Protection Law, enacted on June 14, establishes the Nigeria Data Protection Commission (NDPC) and provides individuals with the authority to seek remedies in the event of a data breach. The legislation underscores the importance of fair, lawful, and accountable processing of citizens’ personal data.

    Furthermore, the Act prohibits the cross-border transfer of personal data, except in cases where it is legally permitted. It reinforces accountability by requiring all data controllers and processors deemed of “significant importance” to register with the regulatory authority within six months of the law’s commencement, effective from June 26, 2023.
    Undoubtedly, it is widely recognized that President Bola Tinubu assumed leadership in Nigeria during challenging socio-economic circumstances. He is acutely aware of the myriad challenges afflicting the country, and this awareness likely influenced many of the decisions he has made since officially taking office at Aso Rock Villa over the past six months.

    As the well-known aphorism suggests, “Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.” Therefore, it is pertinent to examine the effects of some of the formidable policy measures implemented and the corresponding benefits accrued to the Nigerian people at this juncture.

    The All Progressives Congress (APC), the ruling party, initiated a process of self-reflection upon assuming office in the current administration. This introspective endeavor, resembling a form of self-immolation , was notably instigated by its former chairman, Adams Aliyu Oshiomole. Mr. Oshiomole, who previously served as the governor of Edo state and held the position of president of the Nigerian Labour Congress, currently serves as a senator.

    In a candid admission, Mr. Oshiomole acknowledged that the immediate past president, Mohammed Buhari, who governed the country from May 2015 to May 2023, had a profound impact on the nation’s economic and political landscape, characterizing it as a period of considerable detriment.

    Nigerians are urged to exercise patience with President Tinubu as he endeavors to revive Nigeria’s ailing economy, which has been ensnared in a staggering debt of N88 trillion. This substantial debt has been exacerbated by the injection of N23 trillion through unconventional means, such as the printing of currency without adequate economic backing.

    President Tinubu’s efforts to extricate the nation from this precarious financial situation should be acknowledged, considering the magnitude of the challenge. It is reminiscent of the critical juncture when the notorious military dictator and former military head of state of Uganda, Field Marshal Idi Amin Dadda, harshly confronted his central bank governor.

    In that instance, the central banker candidly informed Amin that the Ugandan currency had become virtually worthless, leading to a state of economic disarray. Amin, responding with disdain, retorted, “You call Ugandan money ‘sh*t money’?” This confrontation resulted in the central banker facing severe repercussions for his unfiltered honesty.

    Drawing parallels to this historical event, was Emefiele as CBN governor facing similar pressure?
    It is imperative to appreciate the challenges faced by leaders in positions of authority.

    While the comparison between Uganda’s Central Bank governor under Idi Amin Dadda and then Nigerian President Buhari and Emefiele serves to highlight the gravity of the economic predicament, it is essential to approach the situation with a commitment to rebuilding and stabilizing the economy.

    In doing so,President Tinubu’s efforts, though very difficult , can be seen as a necessary step towards revitalizing Nigeria’s financial landscape.

    This narrative also brings to mind the title of a recent book authored by the venerable elder statesman and leader of the Niger Delta movement, Pa Edwin Kiagbodo Bekeredemo Clark, titled “Brutally Frank.” which underscores the importance of addressing sociopolitical and economic realities with unflinching honesty, even if the message is difficult to digest.

    As Nigeria grapples with its economic challenges, a collective understanding and support for the measures being taken will be crucial for the nation’s recovery.

    In contrast, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) did not face severe consequences from President Buhari despite exceeding the prescribed 5% threshold for currency printing, which the apex bank is obligated to provide as a lender of last resort to the government.

    Rather, the Governor was permitted to violate the CBN rules. President Buhari addressed this infringement just before his term ended by influencing the National Assembly (NASS) to enact a law that revised the disbursable threshold from 5% to 15%.This law was retroactively applied to encompass the period during which the violation occurred.

    To be equitable, the printing of currency or the violation of Ways and Means rules by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) appears to have been primarily driven by the objective of extending financial assistance to sub-national governments. Upon assuming governance responsibilities, President Buhari inherited a situation where many civil servants were owed substantial arrears of salaries, some accruing over a year or more.

    In this context, the CBN essentially attempted to address an existing issue by creating a new one—namely, the accumulation of debt used for infrastructure development, particularly in projects involving Chinese collaboration such as railways and airport terminals.
    So,the governor Emefiele was somewhat too unorthodox hence the economy got derailed.

    Consequently, the economy became burdened with debt, and the nation has experienced significant financial hemorrhaging. The inability to effectively address multiple financial challenges has resulted in the country’s current state of insolvency. This is exacerbated by the need to allocate a substantial portion of income, up to 98%, to servicing these debts.

    As the saying goes, “the road to disaster is often paved with good intentions”.
    In considering this perspective, one may reflect upon the economic management of our nation by President Buhari and CBN Governor Emefiele. Although their intentions were undoubtedly well-meaning, the resultant impact on the country has proven to be calamitous.

    So, the current administration finds itself grappling with the burdens of this economic challenge, diligently attempting to navigate and mitigate the consequences.

    To provide context, it is worth recalling the 2017 confrontation between Godwin Obaseki, the former investment banker turned governor of Edo state, and Governor Godwin Emefiele, who was the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor at that time. The dispute revolved around the contentious issue of printing money to meet salary obligations, an accusation leveled by the investment banker against the central banker.

    Before venturing into politics, Obaseki had been a co-owner of the investment bank Afrinvest, and his prior involvement provided him insights into the alleged wrongdoing. Consequently, Obaseki voiced his concerns about the practice, prompting a rebuke from CBN governor Emefiele.

    In response, Emefiele not only reprimanded Obaseki but also issued a threat to call in the loans that had been extended to state governments for the purpose of clearing the backlog of salaries for civil servants. This threat was contingent on Obaseki persisting in drawing attention to the perceived misuse of the “ways and means” rule by the CBN.

    Obaseki was subdued, allowing perfidious activities to persist until the situation reached a critical point, often described colloquially as when “the shit hit the fan.” The responsibility of addressing this dire situation now falls upon the Tinubu administration.

    The current Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr. Wale Edun, has sounded the alarm regarding the compromised state of the economy inherited by the present administration.

    Additionally, Mr. Nuhu Ribadu, former anti-corruption czar and the current National Security Adviser to President Tinubu, underscores the fact that Tinubu’s administration has taken charge of a financially depleted nation.

    President Tinubu has consistently emphasized his position during recent visits to Saudi Arabia and Germany, where he actively promoted foreign direct investment. Despite the prevailing socio-economic challenges eliciting widespread concern, President Tinubu, in a poignant address, asserts that Nigeria is far from being a basket case, contending that the country possesses all the necessary economic fundamentals to thrive as a great nation.

    However, its potential has been hindered by misguided policies, notably the subsidies on petrol and the naira. President Tinubu, upon assuming office on May 29 as the President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, promptly eliminated the fuel subsidy. Additionally, he abandoned the practice of expending billions of dollars to defend the naira against foreign currencies, a strategy that was severely draining the nation’s treasury.

    Several critics have based their critique of President Tinubu’s economic policies, dubbed Tinubunomics, on the apparent anomaly of declaring the significant change “petrol subsidy is gone” without outlining a viable alternative. However, in my assessment — a case I have presented on multiple occasions — the assertion that President Tinubu erred in removing the petrol subsidy lacks rigor.

    His critics may not have fully grasped that the petrol subsidy, involving the importation of the commodity from Europe at significant costs to our nation, constitutes an organized crime orchestrated by a potent cabal with influence extending beyond Nigerian borders.

    If President Tinubu had delayed in announcing the withdrawal of the petrol subsidy, as argued by some analysts, it might never have occurred. The cabal could have fiercely opposed it, potentially with even greater force than the current resistance mounted post facto, as opposed to ipso facto.

    The reality is that had he not decisively disrupted the plans of the cabal, catching them off guard as they failed to anticipate the removal of the subsidy , President Tinubu’s efforts to reduce Nigeria’s heavy reliance on fuel imports would not have gained the momentum currently witnessed. This nefarious move by the petrol subsidy mafia involved persuading then-President-elect Tinubu’s advisers to dissuade him from following his unconventional intuition of not toeing the established route of not disrupting the status quo.

    In his capacity as a political maverick, President Tinubu successfully outmaneuvered the petrol subsidy mafia—a syndicate that had previously held administrations hostage. He achieved this by ending the policy of subsidizing the pump price of petrol into a self-perpetuating mechanism.

    This masterful approach to ending the detrimental petrol subsidy deserves commendation, contrary to the characterization of it as a misguided decision by the president’s detractors.

    Let us bear in mind that as an opposition leader, Tinubu spearheaded resistance against the petrol price increase implemented by then-President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan in 2011/2012. Consequently, it is unnecessary to emphasize that the current president possesses a comprehensive understanding of the politics surrounding petrol subsidy, surpassing the comprehension of his critics.

    Acknowledging the challenges faced by a significant portion of the Nigerian population, steps are currently being taken to address policy gaps and the hardships that have been wrought on the masses . This includes the implementation of palliative measures such as providing N5 billion in loans to states to mitigate the adverse impacts of petrol and naira subsidy removal. Additionally, a direct transfer of N25,000 is being extended to the most economically vulnerable individuals, aiming to alleviate the effects of the policy changes on those who are most susceptible.
    Just as adoption of Compressed Natural Gas, CNG which is cheaper than petrol for powering mass transit buses to reduce the cost of transportation is also afoot.

    Additionally, the President has strategically diversified his efforts from seeking assistance from various regions of the world that past leaders had been turning to , including Europe, North America, China, to the Arab World. It started with financial support being sought from the UAE and Qatar, followed by the current active engagement with Saudi Arabia. By the way rumor exists that back in the hey days of Nigeria she loaned money to Saudi Arabia and some of the leaders of that oil rich Arab nation used to turn to university of lbadan for medical needs. That implies that back in the days,Nigeria used to benefit from medical tourism which is today one of the drain pipes in her foreign treasury.

    Preceding the current initiative of seeking inflow of investments from the Arab world , the Islamic bank from the Arabian world had already committed to collaborating with the Nigerian government. This partnership had been manifesting in infrastructure development through the application of sukuk funds, notably in the construction of roads such as Ahmadu Bello Way in Victoria Island, Lagos, and the Abuja-Makurdi road in the middle belt, among other notable projects.

    It cannot be claimed that President Tinubu’s policies and plans lack rhyme and rhythm because they have yet to deliver the intended results. Sooner than later , the endeavor would eventually reach the gestation stage,so that the people can start breathing normally again.

    In addition to the widespread recognition of the effectiveness of policies articulated by global institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), President Tinubu has recently garnered the endorsement of a prominent Nigerian monarch, namely the Oba of Benin. This monarch, HRM OMO N’ OBA N’ EDO, UKU AKPOLOKPOLO, EWUARE II, a key custodian of traditional institutions in Nigeria, has conveyed his belief that Tinubu’s presidency is divinely ordained by God.

    The monarch issued the declaration on Sunday, November 26, during a courtesy visit to the Governor of Lagos State. He earnestly appealed to Nigerians for their support in his endeavors to stabilize our nation.

    President Tinubu is currently benefiting from both institutional and international support. Furthermore, the recent endorsement from the Bini royalty adds an extra boost to his endeavors aimed at liberating our nation from the challenges of poverty.

    As the administration attains the midway point of its inaugural year in Aso Rock Villa, anticipation is palpable among Nigerians. They eagerly await the tangible manifestation of the long-awaited dividends of democracy they have fervently desired.
    And president Tinubu has promised to make the wait worth the while of the critical mass of Nigerians, and they are anxiously looking forward to it.

    Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst ,author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.
    To continue with this conversation and more ,please visit www.magnum.ng

  • Between the politicization of Nigeria’s judiciary and the judicialization of Nigerian politics – By Magnus Onyibe

    Between the politicization of Nigeria’s judiciary and the judicialization of Nigerian politics – By Magnus Onyibe

    The ascent of judicial activism in the apex court aligns with the judiciary’s increasing involvement in Nigeria’s political landscape, which has prompted concerns among Nigerians about the potential repercussions of the judiciary taking on the role of determining political leadership , by potentially supplanting the electorate in this crucial decision-making process.

    The growing trend of the judiciary, rather than the electorate, determining the majority of those in the commanding heights of power undermines the voters, whose ballots now carry diminished significance.
    Adjunct to that is the fact that the increasing influence of activists within the Supreme Court poses a threat to the stability of the third branch of government, prompting the executive branch to swiftly intervene in order to prevent further radicalization within the upper echelons of the interpretative society.

    The restiveness among jurists in the Supreme Court seems to be rooted in issues such as manpower shortages, inadequate remuneration, and a structural imbalance that centralizes administrative power solely in the Chief Justice of Nigeria, CJN.

    Before delving into the ongoing solutions to this dilema, it is crucial to understand how we arrived at our current undesirable situation.

    Two distinct patterns of development are currently influencing and characterizing the Nigerian judicial landscape. The initial aspect involves the increasing activism in the Supreme Court, highlighted by Supreme Court Justice Mohammed Dattijo’s unveiling of the flaws within the apex court during his valedictory speech.

    The retiring distinguished jurist’s alarming disclosure mirrors a familiar trend of sleaze of corruption that accompanied the departure of the most recent Chief Justice of Nigeria, CJN, Mohamed Tanko This sordid revelation, delivered by the second-highest-ranking jurist in the Supreme Court hierarchy, can be likened to a Nunc dimittis, or at the very least, a vote of no confidence in the Nigerian judiciary.

    A similar wave of criticism sparked and finalized the departure of CJN Tanko’s predecessor, ex-CJN Walter Onnoghen, who was accused of improper conduct in his role as CJN, although some argue that he was framed, seemingly to remove him from the position.

    Another concerning trend is the increasing interference of the judiciary or legal institutions in the electorate’s role. Despite voters going to the polling booths on election days, their votes often seem inconsequential because the courts ultimately decide the winners of electoral contests.

    This claim is supported by the fact that nearly all contested offices in the February 25 and March 11 elections have either been or are currently under dispute in the legal system. The losers are appealing these cases, as reported by Professor Mahmud Yakubu, the chairman of the electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) who decried the unprecedented large number of litigations on elections 2023.

    Apparently, the trend began to take shape following the release of election results in October as evidenced by the Supreme Court’s confirmation of President Bola Tinubu’s victory which marked a pivotal moment, solidifying him as the legitimate and democratically elected president of Nigeria on 25 February 2023.

    However, the fate of several governors and numerous lawmakers, both at the state and federal levels, that also participated in the elections on both 25 February and 11 March,remains uncertain even eight months after their engagement in the general elections.

    Right now,in addition to Nasarawa state, recent developments have led to the review or annulment of results of gubernatorial elections conducted in Zamfara, Kano, and Plateau states

    Over the past few weeks and days , the appeals courts have been overturning initial INEC declarations in favor of candidates earlier deemed to be the losers as they have been rendering rulings canceling elections or instructing reruns in specific local government areas. This dynamic situation underscores the ongoing complexity and uncertainty surrounding the outcomes of elections 2023.

    The quartet of governors whose elections have been overturned , with the possibility of more joining the fray, will inevitably engage in legal battles in the Supreme Court to see if they can retain their mandate through the apex court in our country,sooner or later.

    Apart from the election of the four governors that has been quashed , numerous other elections held in the first quarter of the year, especially those involving legislators, remain pending decisions in the courts even as the candidates involved are eagerly awaiting the judiciary’s verdict to determine their fates.

    In light of all the unfolding strange developments, as a member of the commentariat , I am advocating for a reconsideration of the nomenclature used to describe the current political leadership system in Nigeria This system, as presently practiced, lacks the qualities that would justify it being labeled as a democracy.

    Basically, there are various types of political systems across the globe. The primary categories acknowledged: are democracies, totalitarian regimes, and bridging the gap between these extremes are authoritarian regimes that often exhibit a blend of characteristics of the aforementioned systems

    Monarchies also constitute another distinct category within political systems, either as independent entities or as hybrid systems incorporating elements from the aforementioned three main types.

    Clearly, taken from the optics of the current dynamics, the governance system in our country does not align with the classical definition of democracy—government of the people, by the people, for the people. Instead, the current process of selecting political leaders through court rulings seems to be underpinned by the idea of government over the people by the oligarchs chosen by the judiciary.
    This deviation from universal democratic principles is a significant aberration that is worrying to me, and l believe all men and women of goodwill.

    It’s concerning that the governance system taking shape in our country doesn’t even neatly align with oligarchy, which is a government led by the wealthy. Instead, what’s emerging seems to be a hybrid, and it appears somewhat amorphous.

    Perhaps this sheds light on why President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, which began its leadership journey in Nigeria just six months ago (precisely on May 29), is stepping in to address the concerning decline in the governance system.

    As if walking the talk,President Tinubu’s administration has prompted the Federal Judicial Service Commission (FJSC) to release a list on Thursday, November 16th. The list includes the names of twenty-two (22) judges from the Court of Appeal who are seeking elevation to the Supreme Court.

    The nominees on the list hail from different geopolitical zones across the country, and the number of candidates varies for each zone based on its current representation on the Supreme Court bench. Presently, the Supreme Court operates with only 10 justices, shouldering the workload meant for a full complement of 21 members.

    To rectify this, there are 11 vacancies that require filling in order to meet the statutory requirement of a complete 21-member Supreme Court.

    If and when this intention materializes, it would mark a crucial step towards de-radicalizing the Supreme Court. As we are all well aware, the constitutional role of the apex court is that it is the guardian and interpreter of the constitution, rather than the institution that selects political leaders for Nigerians which it has gradually become. Notably, the Supreme Court has never achieved the milestone of having its full complement of justices, which is 21, but under President Tinubu’s watch that is about to happen.

    During the inauguration of a flyover bridge and magistrates court facility in Port Harcourt, Rivers State, on 3rd and 4th May,President Bola Ahmed Tinubu made a commitment to rejuvenate the judiciary. This promise was also recently reiterated during his recent investment presentation to Saudi Arabian authorities at the Africa-Saudi Arabia Economic Summit.

    In the course of making his pitch to potential investors,Mr. President had pledged that corruption, which is a malfeasance that Nigeria’s image is tarred with, would be eradicated during his tenure as Nigeria’s president. It is a commitment that he initially made when he was president-elect before his inauguration on May 29 and which he has further validated in Germany during the ongoing meeting of African leaders with German authorities and business leaders .

    For the first time in Nigeria’s history, assuming all goes as planned, the nation is on the verge of having a complete set of Supreme Court justices which is a development that would relieve the current ten (10) the burden of work overload currently discomfiting the eminent jurists.

    Isn’t it remarkable that President Tinubu oversaw such a positive development in the judiciary? In many aspects, this initiative bears resemblance to the actions of the late President Musa Yar’adua. After his election in 2007, marred by irregularities, he took the step of establishing the Justice Mohammed Lawal Uwais Commission.

    That commission was tasked with the responsibility of reforming the electoral system, aiming to address the discredit that tainted the process that brought him into power.

    The commission is on record for coming up with and presenting numerous proposals that could have significantly aided our country in navigating the intricate , volatile, and acrimonious electioneering process.

    Unfortunately, most of the recommendations from the Uwais commission were not incorporated into the Electoral Act of 2022. This omission has resulted in the ongoing calamity that continues to afflict our process of recruiting public office holders.

    After Elections 2023 defined and capped by President Tinubus’s arduous battle to validate his mandate in both Nigerian and United States courts (across the Atlantic Ocean), he seems resolute in bringing sanity to the Nigerian political system. This determination is evident in his ongoing efforts to reform the judiciary. Perhaps efforts aimed at tightening the loose ends in the Electoral Act 2022 would follow shortly, but the work seems to have commenced with giving the judiciary the muscle that it needs to perform optimally, in light of the deluge of political matters being litigated and crowding out matters related to society and commerce.

    In this case, he is currently not fortifying the electoral laws as Yar’adua did in 2007, which is a feat that his predecessor in 2015 , President Muhammadu Buhari, attempted to emulate through the Electoral Act of 2022.

    Unfortunately, it is the nebulous nature of the rules in the reformed Electoral Act 2022 that has placed the country in a precarious situation primarily due to the electoral umpire’s dependence on technology, specifically the Bimodal Voting and Accreditation Systems (BVAS) and Independent Results Viewing (IReV) portals, both of which have proven to be failures as they are mainly the basis for most of the legal challenges of the results of the elections by aggrieved political actors .

    So, by and large ,President Tinubu is prioritizing the stabilization of the judiciary to mitigate its increasing radicalism and activism reflected by the growing interference of the bar and bench in Nigeria’s political affairs, particularly in encroaching upon the electorate’s role of choosing their leaders through the ballot boxes during elections.

    In the current Nigerian context, individuals holding positions in the legal profession, both as lawyers and judges, are highly esteemed. But analysts are asserting that a considerable number of them are benefiting from a competitive financial exchange among politicians.

    This exchange occurs as politicians strive to surpass each other in their attempts to secure coveted political offices. Unfortunately, the emphasis is not on gaining the electorate’s mandate, as it should be, but rather on who can entice the legal professionals with the highest financial incentives.

    The current reality is that governors whose legal cases have been adjudicated upon and concluded, with judgments awaiting later announcements, are experiencing heightened anxiety. This situation mirrors the tension in auction sessions, where participants strive to increase their bid prices in the face of strong challenges from others vying to outbid them.

    The current situation has reached such an absurd level, to the extent that trust in both the electoral and judicial systems has regressed to the chaos seen in the pre-2007 Umaru Musa Yar’adua election debacle, prompting the formation of the Justice Lawal Uwais commission tasked with reforming the electoral system as earlier detailed.

    In essence, since February and March, most candidates vying for political office through the ballot have been anxiously awaiting the judgment of the courts. So they have been finding themselves on the edge of their seats, with their hearts figuratively in their mouths, concerned about the fate of their careers.

    This means that the destiny of a significant number of political aspirants now rests in the hands of lawyers and judges, effectively swapping roles with the Nigerian electorate, whether by omission or commission.

    At this point, let’s delve deeper into the activism observed among distinguished jurists in the apex court—a rare occurrence in the history of Nigeria’s judiciary. It is essential to explore this aspect before transitioning our discussion to a new phenomenon: the appropriation or misappropriation of the rights of Nigerian voters by courts, lawyers, and judges in determining leadership.

    It is a settled matter that the decisions regarding who is elected or not elected into public office are now being made by members of the interpretative community, also known as the judiciary.

    While some observers in the judicial sector argue that eminent jurists critiquing the actions and inactions of their fellow bench members is problematic, others contend that it reflects the maturation of our judiciary Previously, members behaved as if part of a secret cult, turning a blind eye and remaining silent about inner-circle occurrences in the judicial system. However, a shift began when some members started to speak up.

    The current situation in Nigeria’s judicial system versus the judicialization of politics raises the question of which phenomenon came first: politicization or judicialization? The bottom line is that it is whether it is politicization or judicialization that precedes the other in the hierarchy of occurrences, which is currently a matter of speculation and thus warrants further interrogation .

    As earlier pointed out , there is a consensus of opinion that these developments were triggered by the widespread concern among Nigerians that their opinions via their votes were not being adequately reflected. This concern arose because nearly all election events in Nigeria end up in the courts, with many cases reaching the Supreme Court, the ultimate arbiter.
    The president of the court of appeal, justice Monica Bolna’an Dongban – Mensem
    had raised the alarm that the court’s dockets are dominated by political issues.
    What is undeniable is that through the process of adjudication, courts ultimately determine who is qualified to hold political office in our beloved country, a departure from the electorate’s intentions. For example, individuals who exercised their right to vote on February 25 and March 11 found that some candidates declared winners by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had their victories overturned.
    Had president Tinubu not fought valiantly to avoid his case determined by the technicalities such as his academic certificate being the original issued by CSU or not he too would been a victim of the unfolding trend of winning the votes and being stripped of the mandate of the votes by the courts based on technicalities which are whimsical and capricious in nature.

    Despite the optimism surrounding the provisions in the Electoral Act of 2022 and the 2018 amendment to the 1999 constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, aimed at addressing identified abnormalities in the electoral process, the Supreme Court has once again emerged as the ultimate arbiter for the 2023 general elections with respect to governors and the president and the appeal court as the final stage for legislators

    The expectation that the judiciary would refrain from encroaching upon the electorate’s role this time was based on the belief that the electoral system had become highly transparent. It was anticipated that the election outcomes would be less prone to dispute, thanks to the integration of technologies such as the Bimodal Voters Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Result Viewing (IReV) portal into our electoral processes.

    It is quite disappointing that the expectation among Nigerians that the courts would refrain from interfering with the process of choosing their leaders has been shattered. Unfortunately, what was hoped to be an ambitious yet achievable goal has proven otherwise, as resorting to the courts has apparently become the norm rather than the exception.

    On top of that disappointment,it is also rather disheartening that the widespread use of legal channels has become prevalent, which is a stark contrast to the initial optimism that technology would act as a safeguard against the electoral fraud that has plagued our electoral system since the return to multi party democracy in 1999. Additionally, the hope for a change in the selection of political leaders this time stems from the reformation of the Electoral Act in 2022. Despite these anticipations, the current scenario suggests a departure from the envisioned improvement.

    The increased transparency in the electoral system, as perceived by most election enthusiasts, was expected to bring a higher level of integrity to the process of selecting our political leaders. This, in turn, led to the belief that candidates vying for political office would have fewer reasons to challenge election results in court.

    This perspective is rooted in the recognition that resorting to legal action after elections has been a detrimental phenomenon in Nigeria, depriving the electorate of their rightful ability to choose their leaders. Pursuing redress through claims and counterclaims of electoral fraud not only shifts the power of the electorate to the judiciary but has also proven to be a lucrative venture for both legal practitioners and judges.
    And it would appear as if members of the legal profession, both on the bar and bench, have been enjoying the privilege of usurping the roles of citizens who have fulfilled their civil responsibilities by voting at polling stations. However, these votes often end up not counting, as the courts ultimately decide the outcomes.

    For example, in a recent speech, former President Muhammadu Buhari highlighted that in the four instances he ran for the presidency of Nigeria, he found himself in the Supreme Court three times, attempting to secure the mandate he believed he had lost to his opponents through alleged manipulations.

    President Buhari’s courtroom experiences are more common than rare in Nigeria. That is because the trend extends to various politicians who ascend to governorship without conventionally campaigning, as exemplified by cases such as the emergence of Mr. Rotimi Amaechi as governor of Rivers State, and Mr. Hope Uzodinma, the current governor of Imo State. Notably, Uzodinma secured the fourth position in the 2019 election according to INEC results but was later declared the governor by the Supreme Court several months after the INEC-declared winner, Emeka Ihiedioha had taken the oath of office as governor.

    The perplexing verdicts handed down by the Supreme Court in Rivers and Imo states, as highlighted earlier, mirror similar situations in political contests throughout the country currently playing out in 2023 unless the Supreme Court overturns appeal courts decisions.

    The judiciary’s apparent encroachment on the people’s power to elect their leaders has piqued my curiosity and motivated the authorship of several articles on the matter, yet the referenced cases remain a mystery

    During the final days of President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure, a memo or petition was penned by disgruntled Supreme Court justices. This document brought attention to the purported incapacity of the then Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN), Mohammed Tanko, and highlighted the deplorable welfare conditions of the justices.

    The radical left, often referred to as activist jurists in the apex court, deserves credit for bringing about the appointment of the current Chief Justice of Nigeria (CJN), Justice Kayode Ariwoola, who replaced the aging Mohammad Tanko.

    Following this change, there were adjustments made to the salaries, welfare packages, and working conditions of the justices as per their demands.

    Interestingly, the same activist jurists from the Supreme Court who played a pivotal role in Justice Ariwoola’s emergence are now vocal critics, accusing him of autocracy. This shift in perspective can be seen as a form of poetic justice or retribution in the judiciary community.

    Certainly, Nigeria isn’t the first jurisdiction where members of the Supreme Court face public criticism for their actions or inactions. Consider the Supreme Court judgment commonly referred to as Roe v. Wade, wherein the highest court in the USA changed its stance on abortion which is a century old law , for example. Americans who believe in abortion were shell shocked, yet they had to come to terms with it.

    Another example involves allegations that certain Supreme Court members were socializing with wealthy individuals who provided them with vacations, rides in private jets, and yacht outings, leading to a substantial amount of negative commentary

    News outlets, including ProPublica, have extensively covered luxurious trips taken by Clarence Thomas, funded by Texas businessman Harlan Crow. Additionally, there have been investigations into real estate dealings between Justice Thomas and the billionaire Republican donor.

    A Senate Democrats’ report revealed that Thomas allegedly neglected to repay a substantial portion of a $267,230 loan from his longtime friend, Anthony Welters, which was intended for the purchase of a luxury motor coach.

    ProPublica, the news platform in the USA,also disclosed an unreported 2008 flight taken by conservative Justice Samuel Alito. The flight was provided by billionaire hedge fund founder Paul Singer for a lavish fishing trip in Alaska.

    Other media reports have similarly delved into a real estate transaction involving conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch and the CEO of a major law firm. Additionally, there have been accounts of aides promoting the sale of books by liberal justice Sonia Sotomayor in conjunction with her public speaking engagements.
    So, accusations of members of the Temple of Justice of improper behavior are not peculiar to Nigeria but universal.

    Although the breach of the new code of conduct does not attract sanctions, as it is expected that the eminent jurists would self-regulate, it is commendable that the Supreme Court justices, even though they are considered next to God as the final arbiters in the discharge of justice here on earth, recognize that they would appear to be above the law if they had no compunctions.

    Returning to the situation in Nigeria, it is important to stress that perhaps the rise of activist jurists was inspired by incidents that occurred during the run-up to the 2019 re-election bid of the immediate past administration.

    During his presentation at the media industry leaders’ retreat in Uyo, Akwa Ibom State, the National Security Adviser, NSA Nuhu Ribadu, characterized the government inherited by the current administration as a bankrupt economy which is a reinforcement of the negative portrayals of Buhari’s administration, which was already negative even in the first term from 2015 to 2019.
    The scenario described above was an imperative for jurists to assert their independence and ensure their survival through activism.

    Notably, also a significant factor is the reality that some high-ranking members of the judiciary had been arrested by security operatives during the previous administration. They were apprehended in a manner reminiscent of the Gestapo. These arrests were presumably made on dubious charges, including the alleged possession of foreign currencies discovered during searches conducted in their residences by security agencies, making them more resentful of the system

    The current NSA,Ribadu, appears to have chosen a different and less confrontational approach to security matters as he has been deferring to respect for the rule of law . This is evident in how swiftly he addressed the recent conflict with the organized labor union that had called a nationwide strike action following the brutalization of Nigerian Labor Congress,NLC by politicians in his homestead,lmo state.

    Many thanks to Ribadu’s actions, the conflict situation was resolved promptly, preventing the escalation of the industrial action.
    At first, it did not seem that there were activist jurists within the Supreme Court, such as Justice Mohamed Datijo, who recently retired. Until he opened up a Pandora’s box during his valedictory speech, where in he openly discussed issues that the apex court had been accused of, not many realize that there was a sort of molting magma waiting to erupt in the judiciary branch of government.

    It’s worth recalling that, in defense of the Supreme Court amid previous controversial rulings and the resulting damage to its public perception, Dr. Akande, the court’s spokesperson, emphasized that the judiciary’s engagement in political issues is not a choice made by the third branch of government.

    Rather, it is an undesirable responsibility thrust upon it by politicians. These politicians, due to the absence of internal democracy in the conduct of their party primaries and the unclear laws in the laws regulating general elections, frequently end up in court to address significant conflicts.

    What could be more absurd than the Court of Appeal declaring that the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) governorship candidate, who was declared the winner of the March 11 election in Kano State, was not a bona fide member of the party before being given the mandate to contest for the position of governor?

    A straightforward remedy towards addressing the issue of poorly conducted elections involves implementing a cutoff date for launching election challenges in court and incorporating technology into the electoral process, as outlined in the Electoral Act of 2022.

    But the reforms , in light of the current quagmire, are far from ideal, as evidenced by the substantial number of disgruntled participants from the 2023 elections currently embroiled in court proceedings. This surge in litigation has overwhelmed the legal system, with political actors flooding the courts. Consequently, this has adversely impacted the timely resolution of other societal matters that require legal attention.

    To enhance the effectiveness of the electoral process, apart from appointing a full compliment of 21 Supreme Court justices ,one potential solution could be the establishment of dedicated election courts, as recommended by the Uwais Commission. Surprisingly, this recommendation was not included in the electoral process reforms of 2022.

    Also, efforts should be made to enhance the clarity and fairness of pre-election procedures, particularly within party primaries. This is crucial to prevent undesirable outcomes, such as situations where the candidates selected as flag bearers lack authenticity as bonafide members of the party.

    A notable example is the case of the NNPP governor of Kano State, whose legitimacy as a candidate was contested in the appeals court. It was revealed that he was not a duly registered member of the NNPP, the party on whose platform he contested the election.

    In conclusion, members of the political class need to break away from the habit of resorting to the courts to secure mandates that they failed to obtain through electoral processes of being voted for by members of their constituents .

    This tendency has led to some political office holders being mockingly labeled as ‘Supreme Court-made.’ Instead, they should take a cue from leaders like George Weah, the president of Liberia. Mr Weah, after facing defeat in a presidential election and a subsequent re-run, graciously congratulated his opponent, Ambassador Joseph N. Boakai. This demonstrates a mature and statesmanlike approach to accepting electoral outcomes.

    It is quite commendable that President Weah chose not to take the matter to court to avoid wasting the time of the people of Liberia, raising false hopes among his supporters, and inflaming tensions. He chose not to heat up the polity despite the close margin of victory by his opponent . In the spirit of good sportsmanship, he graciously accepted defeat and saved Liberians that anguish that unending fights in law courts by Nigerian politicians foist on their supporters in Nigeria.

    This noble gesture by President George Weah demonstrates a candid approach to politics, in stark contrast to the cutthroat nature often seen in Nigerian politics.

    Other political figures should take note and refrain from engaging in unnecessary pursuits in courts , sparing us from futile endeavors like attempting to prove the alleged falseness of President Tinubu’s academic certificate, reminiscent of the prolonged scrutiny faced by President Buhari over his elementary school certificates.

    Relying on trivial matters, such as the authenticity of academic certificates, to challenge an opponent’s election victory not only seems mundane and anachronistic,but also calls for a reconsideration of the provision of such in our country’s statutes book .
    The condition in 1999 requiring candidates to present academic certificates when seeking political office may need to be reviewed to eliminate the undue focus on such issues.

    As highlighted in previous articles, having academic qualifications is not a prerequisite for seeking public office in consequential countries like the USA, UK, France, Germany, bastions of democracy,and even Russia and China, which do not strongly adhere to liberal democracy principles also do not make such demand of public office seekers .
    Why should Nigeria continue to uphold this provision, which holds no real value?

    This is a question that the government, especially the executive and legislative branches, must urgently address with a sense of patriotism in ensuring that the requirement is delisted from the constitution.

    Taking such action would spare our country the negative reputation that was attracted by the contentious legal dispute between former Vice President of Nigeria, Abubakar Atiku, the presidential candidate of the People Democratic Party (PDP), and President Tinubu in the USA. It is a dispute revolving around President Tinubu’s attendance at Chicago State University, CSU, USA, or lack thereof simply because he had lost the original certificate issued to him by CSU. And what makes it so absurd is that the nasty fight happened even after his academic transcript was presented by the institution.

    The recent legal controversy highlighted to me the excessive importance Nigerians attach to paper qualifications, in contrast to advanced societies where emphasis is placed on experience and academic transcripts as indicators of academic capacity.

    This situation also reveals the absurdity of using such trivial matters as the grounds for overturning an election after incurring significant costs for Nigerian taxpayers running into billions of naira to conduct the elections. Unfortunately, it is the lack of funds in the economy that has contributed to a staggering 133 million Nigerians experiencing multidimensional poverty. Furthermore, it is a lack of buoyancy in the economy that more than 20 million children are out of school, which is evidence of the combined challenges of poverty and insecurity in our country .

    Incidentally, it is not only the epic court battle recently fought between president Bola Tinubu and former vice president Atiku Abubakar across the Atlantic ocean from Nigeria to the USA courts that is the first such clash between political timbers and caliber in Nigeria,to borrow the phrase made popular by chief K.O Mbadiwe, one time ambassador plenipotentiary of Nigeria. As the saying goes , history always repeats itself.
    As records have revealed , a similar battle for political office in Nigeria had been fought all the way from Nigeria to London between Chief Obafemi Awolowo, then leader of the party in western Nigeria and Chief Samuel Akintola the premier, alongside the Governor of western region,Oba Adesoji Aderemi, who was also then Ooni of lfe. Also in the equation is Alhaji Dauda Ishola Soroye Adegbenro,the man primed up to replace the governor,amongst other political juggernauts in the western region.

    Before Nigeria became a republic in 1963, there was a court higher than the current Supreme Court of Nigeria. It was located in London and it used to go by the name : The Privy Council.
    Since the colonial court was located in London, since it is the final arbiter, the combatants-Awolowo, Akintola,Aderemi, Adegbenro after exhausting their options in the epic legal battle in Nigeria, they moved across the Mediterranean Sea from Africa to Europe where their contest in court made the headlines of Uk tabloids and New York Times in the early 1960s.
    The narrative above is gleaned from a nostalgic look into the past by prince Toyin Olugbade whose deep dive into the evolution of political leaders in western region and their remarkable face-off in local and offshore courts of law,was widely shared recently .
    The striking thing about that revelation is that there is nothing new under the sun .
    That assertion is underscored by the fact that the type of bittter legal battle that took place between president Tinubu and former vice president Atiku Abubakar before the curtain was drawn on elections 2023, had been wagged some sixty one (61) years ago between Chiefs Awolowo, Akintola,and Oba Aderemi as well as Alhaji Adegbenro under similar political circumstances.

    The beauty of it all is that at that time , the brilliance of the jurists involved as reflected by the dexterity of the legal luminaries , sir Adetokunbo Ademola, then Chief Justice of Nigeria, CJN ,the legendary Chief Rotimi Williams, and Mr S. lghodaro , Chief Akin Olugbade as well as the political sagacity of Nigerian politicians of yore were on display to the admiration of all those that witnessed it.

    It is rather disappointing that the same or similar astuteness in law can not be said to have been exhibited by the attorney’s that prosecuted the Wazirin Atiku Abubakar and Asiwaju Bola Tinubu court debacle that also saw the case being taken across the Atlantic Ocean into the US before it was brought to a final closure in Nigeria .
    It is unsurprising that the jurists in the Presidential Elections Petitions Tribunal (PEPT) and the Supreme Court that presided at different stages over the matter were also not enamored by the quality of jurisprudence displayed.

    Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst ,author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.
    To continue with this conversation and more ,please visit www.magnum.ng

  • As Israel goes ballistic in Gaza, the world calls for ceasefire – By Magnus Onyibe

    As Israel goes ballistic in Gaza, the world calls for ceasefire – By Magnus Onyibe

    As the global community urges a halt to the ongoing Israeli-Gaza armed conflict, Israel, bolstered by unwavering support from the mighty United States of America (USA) and Western Europe, is providing only brief daily respites in the form of four to six hourly ceasefires. These pauses are aimed at facilitating the movement of beleaguered Gazans from the besieged northern region to the comparatively safer southern part of Gaza and for relief to flow into the besieged country.

    But the Gaza Strip and its residents that are experiencing a devastating form of destruction reminiscent of an apocalypse, with Israel acting aggressively, in the manner that resembles a wounded lion attacking its evidently weaker neighbor for invading and killing unarmed civilians. Owing to the ferocity of the counter attack by Israel,and the gruesome deaths of mostly innocent human beings particularly children,the world is once more on edge with protesters against the lsraeli -Hamas war literally covering the surface of the earth as they marched on all the major cities around the world.

    As it may be recalled on October 7, the less powerful neighboring Gaza militants- Hamas invaded Israel’s territory with the intent to harm and violate defenseless Israelis, resulting in the killing of Israelis initially estimated to be 1,400 , currently scaled down to 1,200 and abduction of nearly 240 people who are still in their custody in Gaza . Since that time which is a little over one month, a reprisal war has raged on with lsrael gaining the upper hand as Hamas/Gaza / Palestinians are being literally pulverized.
    In light of these atrocities, anyone with a conscience and a sense of humanity would undoubtedly call for a ceasefire, as is currently happening worldwide through street protests in both the Arab world and the Western Hemisphere as well.

    Arising from the global outcry, the US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, has emphasized, “Far too many Palestinians have lost their lives.” And urged lsrael to be more conscious on its targeting to prevent the alarming collateral damage being incurred via human casualties.

    Additionally, during the Arab World meeting in Saudi Arabia that held last Saturday , there has been a unanimous call for a ceasefire. However, Israel appears unyielding, connecting the plea for a ceasefire to the condition of releasing approximately 240 Israelis allegedly held as hostages by Gaza fighters.

    To comply with the global call for a ceasefire, according to Prime Minister Netanyahu, would be akin to surrendering to terrorism.

    “The war is moving forward with force that Hamas has never seen,” Netanyahu proclaimed in a vigorous address commemorating a month since the invasion. “There will not be a ceasefire without the return of our kidnapped.”

    The Israeli prisoners are probably detained in a sophisticated network of underground tunnels, assumed to resemble the intricate overhead bridges in Los Angeles, California, USA commonly referred to as’spaghetti’ due to the complex interweaving of roads above and below each other. This network of tunnel in Gaza is believed to be impregnable.

    As such the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) may find it challenging to access these locations easily, making it difficult to rescue Israeli citizens. Therefore, opting for negotiations over sheer force appears to be the most viable approach to ensuring the safe return of Israeli hostages after a ceasefire has been implemented.

    In an apparent effort to exert public pressure on the Israeli leadership, Hamas, or Islamic jihadist fighters in Gaza, seem to be employing a psychological approach. This is evident in a video featuring Israeli hostages, a 70-year-old and a 13-year-old, who are urging Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to cooperate with their captors. The hostages warned that if they were harmed, the responsibility would lie with the prime minister. This tactic underscores a shift toward psychological warfare by the abductors rather than conventional military strategies.

    That move by Hamas is obviously aimed at softening the heart of PM Netanyahu, particularly following the emotional outpouring from the Israeli public, especially the family members of the kidnapped, whose emotions would be heightened by the distress call in the video clip. It is yet to be established if that strategy would work as envisaged by Hamas, or conversely, if it may become a justification for Israel to intensify its military onslaught on Gaza.

    That notion is underscored by the fact that the IDF, may get fired up to redouble efforts to rescue the hostages after watching the contents of the video, making the prospect of storming Gaza to rescue the unfortunate 240 Israelis abducted more urgent.In light of the extremely delicate circumstances surrounding the recent hostage situation, the daring commando raid on Entebbe airport in Uganda, east Africa in 1976 comes to mind as a poignant reference point.

    This historic event, which occurred in 1976, involved the rescue of hostages from a passenger plane en route from Israel that had been hijacked by Palestinian terrorists. The memory of this heroic operation may cast a significant shadow on the minds of Israelis who lived through it and on the global consciousness as a whole.

    Recalling the renowned Entebbe Raid staged by Israel on July 3–4, 1976, as highlighted by Britannica.com, seems relevant at this point. The event involved the rescue of 103 hostages from a hijacked French jet airliner en route from Israel to France.

    The airliner was hijacked on June 27 after stopping in Athens by members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine and the Red Army Faction, a West German radical leftist group. The plane was then flown to Entebbe, Uganda, where additional accomplices joined the hijackers.

    At Entebbe, the hijackers selectively released 258 passengers who were not identified as Israeli or Jewish while keeping the remainder hostage. Their demand for the release of 53 militants imprisoned in Israel, Kenya, West Germany, and other locations added a complex layer to the crisis.

    In response to this dire situation, Israel took swift and decisive action. On July 3, they deployed four Hercules C-130H cargo planes, each carrying 100–200 soldiers, escorted by Phantom jet fighters. Covering a distance of approximately 2,500 miles (4,000 km) from Israel to Uganda, the Israeli force executed a meticulously planned rescue mission.

    Within an hour of landing, they successfully liberated the hostages, showcasing the effectiveness of their strategic and operational prowess.

    All seven militants were neutralized, and 11 MiG fighters, provided to Uganda by the Soviet Union, were obliterated. The Israeli forces incurred the loss of one soldier and three hostages during the operation. On their way back, the Israeli planes rendezvoused with a waiting hospital plane and refueled in Nairobi, Kenya. The success of the Entebbe raid significantly bolstered Israeli morale.

    However, it’s crucial to acknowledge that this event occurred approximately 47 years ago, and the global landscape has undergone significant transformations since 1976. The current hostages are not as visibly situated as the airline hostages were in 1976; instead, they are likely held in the earlier referenced intricate and concealed underground tunnels scattered throughout the Gaza Strip.

    In light of the evolving situation, countries like the US and European nations supporting Israel are facing significant criticism from their citizens for their unwavering endorsement of what some view as the dehumanizing treatment of Palestinians, potentially amounting to war crimes. This backlash is exacerbated by the stark power asymmetry between Israel, a financially and militarily dominant nation, and the impoverished and fledging Hamas/Gaza, the victim of its military operations.

    As a counter force to that psychological warfare of whipping up sentiments by Hamas against lsrael, damning information has been released by Israel and her allies (the US and European countries) indicating that a three years old American baby is amongst the Americans taken hostage by Hamas on October 7 after killing the parents. Somehow, that revelation about the American lad in captivity may temper the anger against Israel and her Western backers in the war as evidenced by the street marches reminiscent of Black Lives Matter, BLM which rocked the world in 2020 after the unfortunate killing of a black man ,Mr George Floyd by a white police officer in Minnesota, USA.

    Regarding the deteriorating humanitarian crisis in Gaza due to the actions of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), UN Special Rapporteur, Francesca Albanese expressed her concerns, especially in the context of the introduction of the daily 4-6 hour battle pause.

    “Think of what it may have felt for the [people] trapped in Gaza, Palestinians [and] hostages alike, especially the children, to be bombed incessantly night and day for 33 days. Not even a few hours of respite.”

    In light of Israel’s mission to clear civilians from the northern part of Gaza and dismantle infrastructure suspected to be operational bases for Hamas, with the goal of completely eliminating what it considers a terrorist group, the military campaign currently underway is being prosecuted without mercy, which is why the very grim optics has ignited expressions of indignation and outrage by men and women of goodwill across the world.

    During this operation, following the unmitigated damage inflicted on both lives and infrastructure triggering public condemnation,Israel has commenced implementing a daily pause in the fighting, lasting 4–6 hours, to facilitate the evacuation of distressed Palestinians from North Gaza to the southern part of the country. However, Mr. Edward Ahmed Mitchell, Deputy Director of the Muslim Advocacy Group CAIR, has expressed reservations about the IDF’s decision to pause the battle on hourly basis , emphasizing that the rest of the world is calling for a ceasefire instead.

    “Instituting a four hour pause on Israel’s indiscriminate bombing of northern Gaza so that Palestinians can flee their homes and face Israel’s indiscriminate bombing of southern Gaza makes no sense. We need a ceasefire across Gaza, not the ethnic cleansing of northern Gaza.”

    The Muslim advocacy group’s accusation of ethnic bias introduces a new dimension, supporting suspicions in some quarters that Israel’s ultimate plan is to render North Gaza not only uninhabited but also uninhabitable. This strategy is likely aimed at transforming the area into a demilitarized zone (DMZ), akin to the one between North and South Korea—an outcome stemming from the Korean Wars in the early 1950s.

    The Korean War commenced on June 25, 1950, when North Korea invaded South Korea after years of tensions between the two nations. China and the Soviet Union supported North Korea, while the United States and its allies backed South Korea. The conflict concluded with an armistice on July 27, 1953, leading to the establishment of a demilitarized zone.

    The current question is: would the Palestinians, who are likely to be further restricted into a much smaller area than the 365 square kilometers that they currently occupy in north and south Gaza, accept a situation where north Gaza is made into a demilitarized zone (DMZ) if Israel is successful in eliminating Hamas in the same way that the US and her allies defeated the extremely vicious and barbaric ISIS?

    Additionally, there is the question of whether the Arab League would be willing to concede more land without a replacement for the territory that might be lost if the speculated creation of a DMZ in north Gaza becomes a reality.

    In this dilemma also lies the question of whether the proposal to reclaim part of the Mediterranean Sea for the expansion of the homeland, as discussed in my previous column titled “Why the Israel-Hamas War Is the Consequence of Rebellion Against God’s Order,” is feasible and viable for the highly oppressed, ultra-sensitive, and extremely resistant Palestinians or not.

    For far too long, Palestinians have borne the brunt of the conflict involving both their political leaders, Hamas and Fatah, embroiled in internal strife, and their neighbor Israel. Despite a shared ancestry tracing back to the father of humankind, Abraham, Palestinians have consistently rejected acceptance by Israel and endured the consequences of engaging in wars with her neighbor intermittently resulting in massive loss of lives over the past Millenia.

    It is intriguing to consider how the current crisis might have been an African challenge had Israel embraced the land offer in Uganda presented by the United Kingdom in 1903 coinciding with the proposal of Palestinian territory. In this alternate scenario, the United Nations could have legitimized Israel as a nation in Africa in 1948, mirroring its establishment in the Middle East.

    The economic progress witnessed in the Middle East, primarily attributed to Israel’s innovative initiatives, could have potentially extended to Africa, and Uganda would have become celebrated for economic advancements instead of its notorious history under the despotic military rule of Field Marshal Idi Amin Dada.

    Even now,the country continues to grapple with prolonged leadership and autocratic rule under civilian dictator,Yoweri Museveni, who has held the presidency for over 37 years since assuming power in 1986.
    However, when considering the establishment of a homeland, Israel favored the land offered by Uganda over Palestine due to their historical connection to the Palestinians.

    This preference stems from the fact that the land the forbears of Palestinians handed over to them is believed by Israelis to be the original homeland of the Israelites based on biblical accounts going back to Abraham, their forefather, that faced expulsion along with Isaac and Ishmael due to various calamities including famine,pogroms, as well as conflicts with the Ottoman Empire from Turkey, which ruled the region for an extended period.

    This historical plight is compounded by the persecution of Jews during the inquisitions, their subsequent conquest by Islamists, and their eventual migration to Europe, where they endured the harrowing experience of Holocaust and genocide under the rule of Adolf Hitler and the Third Reich in Germany.

    In fact the annals of Israel’s history are marked by adversity and oppression spanning a millennium. Remarkably, in the past century since they were relocated to the Middle East and in the land where the Palestinians lay claim,lsraelis have managed a remarkable recovery since the United Nations officially recognized them as a nation through Resolution 181 in 1948

    It is worthy pointing out that an alternative to the Palestinian land where they eventually got relocated to, there was the option of relocating lsrael to Africa.

    lt is known as “The Uganda Scheme” which according to historical records was a proposal by British Colonial Secretary Joseph Chamberlain to create a Jewish homeland in a portion of British East Africa. It was presented at the Sixth World Zionist Congress in Basel in 1903 by Theodor Herzl, the founder of the modern Zionist movement. He presented it as a temporary refuge for Jews to escape rising antisemitism in Europe. The proposal faced opposition from both the Zionist movement and the British Colony.

    That idea of lsreal being located in Africa was the focus in a recent podcast that has gone viral featuring the erudite Professor of international relations and former minister of foreign affairs of Nigeria, professor Bolaji Akinyemi , an alumni of the Fletcher school of law and diplomacy, Massachusetts, USA and Oxford university, UK , who is a mentor to thousands of foreign relations scholars and enthusiasts in Nigeria and across the world.

    One might ponder what could have transpired if Israelis had chosen relocation to Africa. They might have thrived on the African continent, perhaps in the area around Uganda, much like their success in the Middle East. Through remarkable ingenuity, this small nation, with a population of less than 10 million, has transformed its desert landscapes into fertile and productive farmlands. Notably, this relatively modest-sized country boasts one of the highest number of Nobel Prize winners for inventions by nationality.

    It is remarkable that of the 965 individual recipients of the Nobel Prize and the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences between 1901 and 2023, at least 214 have been Jews or people with at least one Jewish parent, representing 22% of all recipients.

    Normally, a developed country triggers pockets of developments that would cascade down to neighboring countries as has been seen between the US, Mexico and Canada that are contiguous North America countries that developed a common trade zone to boost each other’s development . We have also seen it happening in south east Asia where countries around Japan such as Vietnam , Cambodia and those around Korea , Taiwan, Singapore started enjoying trickle down benefits of rapid industrialization triggered by the industrialized countries around them. Perhaps if Israel’s neighbors had been at peace with her, knowledge from high technological industries in the country of which Israel is a global leader might have been spread around to the neighboring countries. But such positive development could not happen in the Middle East due to the atmosphere of hostility prevalent in that geographical area and consequently the toxicity in the relationships between Israel and her neighbors.

    Could lsreal have repeated the same astronomical ingenuity in technology if it was located in Africa? We would never know simply because it did not happen.

    With all the energy that lsrael is currently investing in avenging the killing of lsraelis in their homes following the surprise attack by Hamas on October 7, the energy and resources that could have been invested in ideas that could move the world forward are being wasted in the war against Hamas. The armed conflict that has precipitated catastrophic humanitarian crisis is not only costing precious Israeli lives ,but also exacting enormous pressure on the country’s financial resources and by extension constituting a burden on the world as the allies of lsrael ( US and Europe) are also in one way or the other bearing the burden, just as the creative time and space of Israel has been hobbled in the period that the war has been raging. Until the guns stop blazing the world may not phantom the economic cost of the war that lsrael has suffered which would likely to be colossal.

    Considered from the prism above, no one is actually winning the war. Not lsrael, not Hamas/ Palestine and not even the world. Rather, the whole world is losing the lives of the innocent just as the productive time and resources of the world are also being wasted owing to an avoidable war.

    After all is said and done, despite the fact that it is Hamas that triggered the current unfortunate and sad attack and counter attack by IDF resulting in the loss of human lives of monumental proportions, there is a global plea directed at Israel and its supporters, (the U.S. and its Western allies) to grant Gazans/Palestinians the space to breathe. This phrase, akin to the oppressive act of a knee on a victim’s neck, draws parallels to the tragic incident involving police officer Derek Chauvin, who asphyxiated George Floyd in Minnesota, USA, in 2020 by kneeling on his neck.

    In accordance with conventional wisdom, expressed in the Latin phrase “Vox populi, vox dei,” meaning the voice of the people is the voice of God, the global call for a ceasefire echoes loudly.

    As such,I would like to reiterate, as I did in my last week’s column titled “Why the Israel-Hamas War Is a Consequence of Rebellion Against God’s Order,” my consistent position by urging both Israel and Hamas/Gaza/Palestine to heed the voice of the people across the word which is the voice of God and stop the senseless decimation of human lives and revert to negotiations. Obviously, going by past experiences from the more than five wars that had been fought over the matter,peace has not reigned in the land. That indicates that war is not the answer to the century long conflict.

    As such, it is essential for both Israel and Hamas to sheath their swords and explore more creative and imaginative ways to put an end to the current unmitigated bloodshed in the land that was promised by God to be one flowing with milk and honey in the holy books of instruction of faith for Jews, Muslims, and Christians alike.

    And the reclamation of part of the Mediterranean Sea of which Gaza has 41 kilometers coastline to create additional homeland for the Palestinians, remains one viable option, no matter how daunting the proposition may be in terms of financial and engineering costs as well as it’s possible negative effect on efforts to manage the impact of climate change crisis.

    Despite its complexity,such a costly solution can not be off the table as solution to the crisis that has become a sort of open sore that has remained festooned on the conscience of the world except there are more viable alternatives.

     

    Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst ,author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.
    To continue with this conversation and more ,please visit www.magnum.ng

  • Climate Reparations: Gordon Brown’s Initiative and Its Resonance with the Legacy of the Slave Trade – By Magnus Onyibe

    Climate Reparations: Gordon Brown’s Initiative and Its Resonance with the Legacy of the Slave Trade – By Magnus Onyibe

    In recent years, we’ve witnessed a striking increase in extreme weather events worldwide. We’ve observed snowfall in regions that were once considered desert landscapes. A notable example of this transformation unfolded in California, USA, where devastating wildfires and extensive flooding have left communities grappling with the consequences.

    On a global scale, our climate has undergone significant and unexpected shifts. It has become increasingly challenging to distinguish between the four distinct seasons of winter, spring, summer, and autumn, which used to be easily identifiable markers of the passing year. This is primarily because these seasons have become less sharply defined, with overlapping occurrences that can lead to winter-like conditions during what should be the gentle embrace of spring, and vice versa.

    These changes in our climate are not merely statistics or abstract data; they are very real and are profoundly impacting our lives and the environment we inhabit. As we bear witness to these transformations, it is clear that we must take collective action to understand, mitigate, and adapt to the evolving climate in order to ensure a better future for all.

    Climate change is universally acknowledged as the most significant issue of our time, and we stand at a pivotal moment in history. It becomes apparent when we observe the shifting weather patterns that imperil our food production and the rising sea levels that intensify the threat of catastrophic flooding.

    It’s crucial to recognize that the impacts of climate change extend globally and are of an unprecedented magnitude. Expert studies confirm that, while climate change may not be entirely preventable, it can be mitigated. To avert the most severe repercussions, the world must strive to achieve “net zero” carbon emissions by 2050, or ideally even sooner. In essence, this means that we should balance the carbon emissions released into the atmosphere with the amount that is removed.

    At this juncture, I invite you to explore Gordon Brown’s innovative strategy to combat climate change, a topic expected to dominate discussions at the upcoming COP28 event scheduled for next month in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

    Before delving into the formula, it’s essential to first grasp the gravity of the climate change crisis that currently looms over our world. Understanding the scale of this challenge is crucial to appreciating why climate issues have taken center stage, even overshadowing evolving conflicts in Europe (such as Russia/Ukraine) and the Middle East (like Israel/Hamas). These conflicts have, in recent times , posed a significant threat to global peace.
    Scientists are sounding a compelling alarm, emphasizing the undeniable reality that our world has already experienced a warming of 1.1 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era.

    This warming trend has given rise to a multitude of extreme weather events, each unfolding in unique ways across different regions of the globe. Take, for instance, the devastating wildfire that recently swept through Maui, a picturesque tourist destination in Hawaii. Tragically, this inferno claimed the lives of 55 individuals. It is believed that the ferocity of this wildfire was stoked by the twin factors of rising temperatures and prolonged drought – clear manifestations of the impacts of climate change.

    Similarly, we witnessed a tropical storm wreaking havoc in California, an event so remarkable that scientists noted it as the first occurrence of its kind in 84 years. Furthermore, the recent flooding in New York City claimed the lives of approximately 13 residents.

    In the wake of these heart-wrenching catastrophes, our collective response to the climate crisis has reached a new level of urgency, far surpassing the concern that prevailed just a decade ago. It is a stark reminder that the time for meaningful action is now, as our world grapples with the consequences of a changing climate.

    In an interesting twist of belief, it is widely held that Exxon Mobil’s internal research accurately foresaw the consequences of burning fossil fuels on our planet’s temperature. This belief, however, faces staunch denial from the oil and gas giant.

    Exxon Mobil has consistently refuted these allegations, asserting, “This issue has arisen on multiple occasions in recent years, and on each occasion, our response remains unswerving: those who claim that ‘Exxon Knew’ have drawn incorrect conclusions.”

    This dissenting perspective doesn’t align with the findings of two prominent climate scientists, Naomi Oreskes, a professor specializing in the history of science at Harvard University, and Geoffrey Supran, an associate professor of environmental science and policy at the University of Miami. Their collaborative report has provided an unprecedented quantification of Exxon’s awareness.

    Their research illuminates that the combustion of Exxon’s fossil fuel products is projected to contribute to a warming of approximately 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade, thus bringing a human touch to the ongoing climate debate.

    In the face of overwhelming evidence, energy companies, despite the substantial profits they derive from activities leading to emissions responsible for climate change, have been criticized for minimizing their role in global warming.

    Some experts draw parallels between this situation and the tobacco industry’s prolonged denial of the link between smoking and lung cancer, a stance they maintained until the evidence became impossible to refute.

    Regardless of one’s perspective, the failure to address the urgent implications of climate change in a timely manner has led to severe consequences for humanity. We now grapple with the devastating fallout of our inaction.

    It is perhaps these very considerations that led Mr. Gordon Brown, the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom (2007-2010), to formulate a distinctive approach to combat the looming climate crisis.

    Remarkably, Gordon Brown’s initiative places the responsibility for addressing climate change squarely on the shoulders of nations heavily reliant on fossil fuel energy. He contends that these countries Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Norway, United Arab Emirates, UAE are primarily responsible for the alarming rise in global temperatures. He describes these nations as “petro-states” and highlights their staggering profits in recent years due to soaring oil prices. In 2022, the five wealthiest petro-states, which include Kuwait, saw their oil revenues double.

    Supporting his argument with data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Gordon Brown notes that global revenues from oil and gas surged from $1.5 trillion (£1.2 trillion) before the COVID-19 pandemic to an unprecedented $4 trillion (£3.3 trillion). This dramatic increase underscores the urgent need to address the impact of these industries on our planet.

    In a notable address, Mr. Gordon Brown, the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and current United Nations Climate Ambassador, shed light on the remarkable profits amassed by energy companies. These companies, unfortunately, bear a significant responsibility for environmental pollution, which, in turn, contributes to the growing prevalence of extreme weather conditions.

    Mr. Brown put forth a thoughtful proposition: that these energy giants ought to contribute a modest portion (3%) of their substantial wealth towards supporting developing nations in dealing with the repercussions of severe weather events. This suggestion emerges from a profound concern for the human impact of climate change.

    To grasp the enormity of these figures, consider this: $4 trillion is a sum 20 times larger than the entire global aid budget. It is a financial magnitude that surpasses even the entire Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United Kingdom.

    These energy-producing nations, however, have made no meaningful efforts to deserve this unprecedented windfall. Such a staggering transfer of wealth from impoverished to affluent nations stands as one of the most substantial disparities in recent history. It is essential that we address this inequity to ensure a more equitable and humane world.
    The acceptance of the former UK Prime Minister’s proposal by the relevant stakeholders remains uncertain, and clarity on this matter may only emerge during the upcoming climate change conference COP 28 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, scheduled for next month in November.

    In the meantime, it is noteworthy that Mr. Brown’s endeavor to safeguard our planet from the dire consequences of climate change bears a striking resemblance to the African nations’ call for reparations from the Western world. These reparations are sought in response to the historical harm inflicted on the African continent through the transatlantic slave trade.

    Regrettably, progress in addressing this demand has been slow, possibly due to a reluctance within the Western world to embrace the concept of reparations.Africa has long pursued a path of appealing to the moral conscience of the Western world in its quest for reparations.

    An appeal is being directed towards the nations of Europe and North America, which, for a period spanning six centuries, harnessed the labor of enslaved Africans. This dark chapter in history not only depleted the African continent of its precious natural resources but also tore away its resilient young men and productive maidens from their homeland, forcing them into a life of toil in the Caribbean and the Americas on sugarcane and cotton plantations.

    It’s undeniable that much of the affluence found in the European and North American nations today traces its roots back to this historical exploitation.

    The paradox lies in the fact that, presently, countless Africans embark on perilous journeys, often braving the treacherous Mediterranean Sea in fragile boats and traversing the unforgiving Sahara Desert in a desperate bid to reach the very lands that were forged through the relentless sweat and toil of their enslaved ancestors.

    Regrettably, individuals in slavery find themselves devoid of basic rights, rendering them unable to stake a claim on the lands that, in the eyes of Africans, brim with promise and prosperity. This yearning to migrate to these fertile lands is driven by a deep human desire for a better life.

    It presents a profound irony and paradox that the descendants of the same Africans who were forcibly transported to Europe and the Americas as slaves, against their will, are now met with barriers in their quest for entry. Their desperation pushes them to seek illegal routes into Europe and North America, fraught with considerable risks, often culminating in tragic loss of life.

    These African youths, the inheritors of a legacy that contributed to the foundations of wealth in these renowned countries, embark on journeys in search of the fabled “land flowing with milk and honey.” Sadly, they encounter rejection at the hands of immigration authorities and face a multitude of formidable obstacles, including imposing walls, as they reach the borders of these nations.
    Even when individuals successfully reach their intended destinations through irregular pathways, such as the perilous Mediterranean Sea and the unforgiving Sahara Desert – which are alternative routes exploited by human traffickers – they must grapple with evading barriers erected by authorities to obstruct their entry.

    Throughout history, Africa has endured the plundering of its resources, a practice that persists today through unjust trade dealings. Despite ongoing calls for reparations from the descendants of those who oppressed them, these pleas have fallen on deaf ears.

    It perplexes me deeply that those responsible for the abhorrent transgression of treating Africans as commodities have not recognized the need for restitution.

    One effective way to begin making amends is to invest in initiatives like establishing factories in African countries, which can generate employment opportunities for the multitude of unemployed young people on the continent.
    Unemployment primarily drives the motivation for individuals to seek migration.

    China implemented a strategic approach aimed at curbing migration from rural areas to urban regions or to Hong Kong by establishing factories in the hinterland and along the coastlines with Hong Kong to stem migration. If a similar endeavor is replicated in Africa,it would be driven by a desire to create a positive impact beyond mere financial gains. Rather than focusing solely on profit for the factories , these factories to be established in Africa by the industrialized world should be founded with a profound commitment to addressing social issues.

    This approach would mark a departure from the centuries-old tradition of providing aid to Africa, and instead, embrace the principle encapsulated in the slogan, “Africa needs trade, not aid.”

    In a remarkable turn of events, former United Kingdom Prime Minister Mr. Gordon Brown has taken a unique approach to address the urgent need to safeguard our planet. His initiative involves urging nations that have profited significantly from fossil fuel exploitation to allocate resources for the benefit of African countries. These nations have not contributed to environmental degradation but are, regrettably, suffering the consequences of climate change resulting from emissions by industrialized economies.

    To complement Mr. Brown’s commendable efforts in managing climate change is my proposal for the industrialized world to establish factories in Africa for the production of essential goods from abundant local resources in Africa. Adjunct to that is another aspect that deserves consideration. It involves addressing the historical injustices stemming from the devastating effects of the slave trade.

    To do this, Western nations, to whom many African countries owe substantial financial debts, could provide debt relief through international institutions like the World Bank, IMF, and the Paris Club. This step would go a long way in acknowledging and rectifying the immeasurable losses experienced by African nations.
    The central idea is that urging industrialized nations, particularly the primary beneficiaries of fossil fuel exploration, to establish funds for climate change mitigation in vulnerable African countries can be likened to Africa’s historical appeal to Europe and North America for reparations due to the devastating impacts of the abhorrent slave trade conducted over centuries.

    However, the former US Secretary of State and current UN climate envoy, John Kerry, seems to resist this proposition. This became evident when he recently addressed US lawmakers, categorically stating that the United States would not, “under any circumstances,” provide reparations to developing nations grappling with climate change-induced disasters.

    Kerry’s stance emerged during his discussions with parliamentarians as part of his preparations for the forthcoming climate conference set to convene in Dubai, UAE. His refusal to entertain the idea of reparations reflects a contentious issue at the heart of the global climate debate.

    At the previous year’s conference, COP27, hosted in Egypt, an important consensus emerged involving over 200 nations. This landmark agreement was aimed at establishing a fund dedicated to addressing loss and damage caused by the adverse impacts of climate change. The primary source of funding for this endeavor would primarily come from developed nations, with the intention of subsequently disbursing these funds to those nations by deemed “particularly vulnerable.”

    As we anticipate the forthcoming UN climate conference, COP28, scheduled for November in the vibrant city of Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), global leaders have a pivotal opportunity to elaborate on the practical implementation of this Loss And Damage Fund agreement.

    As reported by BBC’s insightful journalist, Oliver Snow, it’s critical to acknowledge the plight of developing nations, which are disproportionately affected by the adverse consequences of climate change. These nations have been advocating for a system of assured compensation from developed countries.

    They assert that historical emissions of greenhouse gases, predominantly attributable to developed nations, bear responsibility for the current state of climate change. In light of this, the demand for compensation is an earnest appeal rooted in the principles of equity and shared responsibility.

    In his report, he highlighted the growing recognition among wealthier nations of the pressing need to contribute more substantial financial resources to tackle the climate crisis. However, the term “reparations” has sparked controversy, with some considering it a divisive label.

    At the same time, developing nations assert that the financial targets aimed at addressing climate change fall short of what is required. To illustrate, data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reveals that in 2013, only $52.4 billion had been raised for this cause. By 2015, this figure had decreased to $44.6 billion. Nonetheless, in 2016, funding showed signs of a resurgence, reaching $58.5 billion, and it continued to climb to $94.5 billion in 2022, with a projection that it would breach the $100 billion threshold in the current year.

    In a move that redefined the agenda for COP28 in Dubai, UAE, Mr. Gordon Brown took a bold stance by holding accountable the energy giants who amassed substantial wealth through oil and gas exploration. Notably, he singled out nations like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Norway and Kuwait. This pivotal action marked a shift towards addressing climate change in a more compassionate and inclusive manner.

    Moreover, I have introduced an additional dimension to the discussion. Beyond the oil-producing countries previously highlighted by Mr. Brown, we must also recognize the responsibility of industrialized nations, which have historically been the leading contributors to environmental pollution.

    These countries have perpetuated high emissions since the Industrial Revolution, spanning from the 18th to the 19th century. To promote a more humane and equitable approach to climate change, they should seriously contemplate offsetting the burdens borne by vulnerable nations impacted by this global crisis.

    Understanding why many African countries are burdened by debt is straightforward. Historically, these nations fell into a vicious cycle due to a series of unfortunate events. First, they were ruthlessly exploited by slave merchants who abducted their young and able-bodied men and women. Later, these regions were subjected to colonial rule, which continued to exploit their abundant natural resources.

    Consequently, Africa found itself devoid of the essential economic foundations necessary to elevate itself towards the growth and prosperity it so rightfully deserves.

    A poignant example illustrating the stunted growth of the African continent, attributed to the historical injustices imposed by Western powers, can be found in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Presently, this nation bears the scars of relentless mineral exploitation, rendering it a near-barren landscape.

    Nigerian President Bola Tinubu brought into sharp focus the harrowing reality facing the people of Congo in particular. His message, delivered at the 78th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York, USA, last September, urged world leaders to direct their attention to the suffering endured by Africa due to the overwhelming influence of global superpowers and affluent nations. This call for empathy underscores the urgent need for international cooperation and support.

    “In the aftermath of the Second World War, nations gathered in an attempt to rebuild their war-torn societies. A new global system was born, and this great body, the United Nations, was established as a symbol and protector of the aspirations and finest ideals of humankind.

    Nations saw that it was in their own interests to help others exit the rubble and wasteland of war. Reliable and significant assistance allowed countries emaciated by war to grow into strong and productive societies.
    The period was a high water mark for trust in global institutions and the belief that humanity had learned the necessary lessons to move forward in global solidarity and harmony.

    Today and for several decades, Africa has been asking for the same level of political commitment and devotion to resources that described the Marshall Plan.

    We realize that the underlying conditions and causes of the economic challenges facing today’s Africa are significantly different from those of post-war Europe.

    We are not asking for identical programs and actions. What we seek is an equally firm commitment to partnership. We seek enhanced international cooperation with African nations to achieve the 2030 agenda and Sustainable Development Goals”.

    President Tinubu’s recent speech, deeply rooted in African interests, gains significant significance due to his role as the current ECOWAS chairman. Many have regarded this address as one of the most profound and far-reaching ever delivered by an African leader.

    It conveyed a powerful message to Western nations, urging them to reconsider their actions without resorting to arrogance and to acknowledge that the time has come to end the prolonged oppression Africa has endured.

    In my perspective, one transformative step that could foster forgiveness within Africa toward Europeans and North Americans for the historical exploitation of the continent is a sincere commitment to debt relief and the establishment of industrial facilities within Africa, either in place of or as a complementary form of reparations.

    This approach holds the potential to lay the foundation for a more harmonious and cooperative relationship between the continents, fostering goodwill and mutual understanding.

    One of the key avenues through which Africa can attain self-reliance, rather than persistently functioning as a net exporter of raw materials at significantly reduced prices while serving as a colossal importer of finished goods at inflated costs, is an aspect that has consistently subjected Africans to perpetual financial strain.
    The income of many Africans consistently fails to align with their expenditures, often exemplified by the act of exporting raw materials for paltry returns while incurring exorbitant expenses on imports.

    It’s a lamentable fact, as substantiated by available research, that Africa presently accounts for a mere 2 percent of global trade. This statistic is particularly astonishing when one considers the immense wealth of resources available across the continent, which encompasses a rich array of commodities, including oil, gas, diamonds, gold, cobalt, lithium,uranium, and a diverse range of agricultural products such as coffee, tea, and cocoa.

    This dearth in global trade representation is indeed disheartening given Africa’s abundance of valuable assets.

    Amid the ongoing power struggle between the United States and China, it is essential to consider the profound impact of the past and acknowledge the importance of empathy.

    Denying Africa reparations for the immense suffering it endured during the era of the transatlantic slave trade only perpetuates the negative emotions that this dehumanizing experience has left in the hearts of many Africans for generations.

    Regrettably, this denial has created a growing divide between Africa and Europe/America, akin to the unyielding strength of the Rock of Gibraltar. Rather than fostering reconciliation and understanding, it has the potential to harden the hearts of Africans against their former Western colonizers.

    In stark contrast to the reluctance of Europe and North America to address the issue of reparations for the slave trade, China, as the world’s second-largest economy, is pursuing a different path. Through its Belt and Road initiative, China is actively engaging with and winning the hearts and minds of a substantial portion of the African and Middle Eastern populations.

    This approach offers a refreshing perspective on international relations, focusing on building bridges and fostering mutual respect, rather than perpetuating historical wounds.

    It comes as no shock that the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) foresees China swiftly surpassing the European Union (EU) as Africa’s primary trading partner. This prediction is substantiated by the remarkable 35% surge in trade between the continent and Africa, reaching a substantial $354 billion in 2021.

    Such a development underscores China’s growing prominence as a key player in fostering human connections through commerce on the African continent.

    The surge in economic interactions between China and Africa is being greatly propelled by the optimistic approach and vision of the Chinese Premier, Xi Jinping. During his recent speech at the 10th anniversary celebration of the Belt and Road initiative, held in China, Premier Xi used a compelling and heartfelt narrative to showcase China’s strong commitment to partnership.

    “Belt and Road cooperation is based on the principles of planning together, building together, and benefiting together. It transcends differences between civilizations, cultures, social systems, and stages of development. It has opened up a new path for exchanges among countries and established a new framework for international cooperation. Indeed, the BRI represents humanity’s joint pursuit of development for all.”

    The Chinese premier,Xi Jinping continued by stating:

    “We have learned that win-win cooperation is the sure way to success in launching major initiatives that benefit all. When countries embrace cooperation and act in concert, a deep chasm can be turned into a thoroughfare, land-locked countries can become land-linked, and a place of underdevelopment can be transformed into a land of prosperity.

    Countries taking the lead in economic development should lend a hand to their partners who are yet to catch up.We should all treat each other as friends and partners, respect and support each other, and help each other succeed.

    As the saying goes, when you give roses to others, their fragrance lingers on your hand. In other words, helping others is also helping oneself. Viewing others’ development as a threat or taking economic interdependence as a risk will not make one’s own life better or speed up one’s development.”.

    This sharp contrast in approach between Africa and the Western world demands the attention of Africans in the West.

    In the midst of this, it is essential to note that the Jewish community, who endured the horrors of the Holocaust under the Nazi regime during the Third Reich in Germany, began receiving reparations as early as 1952.

    Remarkably, these payments are still ongoing, with an impressive sum of over €80 billion euros disbursed to Jewish victims as of the previous year.

    This begs the question: If Germany can acknowledge its historical wrongdoing and offer reparations to the Jewish community, then why is there a reluctance among European and North American nations, including Germany itself, which played a significant role in the African slave trade, to extend similar restitution to Africa?

    As the old adage suggests, what benefits one should benefit all. It’s heartening to see some of the invaluable treasures, pillaged by European adventurers during the exploitation of entire continents, returning to their rightful homes as a gesture of moral responsibility. However, it’s equally crucial to consider financial compensation as a means to mend the wounds and bring closure to the haunting chapter of history.

    The question that currently looms is why the Western world, with a particular focus on the United States, as exemplified by Mr. John Kerry’s testimony before the House of Representatives’ Foreign Affairs Committee, appears hesitant to provide reparations to Africa for the historical injustice of enslavement.

    As we approach the upcoming climate conference, COP28, set to take place in Dubai, UAE this November, it presents a significant opportunity for the Western powers, often characterized as the industrialized world, to reassess their position regarding the financial reparations and restitution that have been fervently advocated for by African nations over the years.

    This moment calls for a compassionate reevaluation of the historical wrongs and the moral responsibility that comes with them.

    Former British Prime Minister Apart from Gordon Brown’s proposed formula, suggesting that energy companies and nations that have greatly profited from fossil fuel exploration could consider setting aside part of their profits (3%) for the climate remediation fund, developed nations should consider investing in Africa. This investment would not primarily focus on generating profits, but rather on creating job opportunities on the continent.

    The goal? To address the issue of African citizens seeking better prospects abroad and to extend a helping hand. Additionally, the idea of Western countries forgiving a substantial portion, if not the entirety, of the debt owed by African nations presents an opportunity for the developed world to rectify past shortcomings.

    In essence, these propositions offer a humane approach to global issues and a chance for the developed world to make positive changes.

    As the upcoming COP28 forum draws near, there is a growing sense of anticipation regarding the West’s willingness to seize the opportunity to initiate positive change, especially for the continent of Africa, which has borne the brunt of climate-related disasters.

    This hinges on whether the Western world can shift its stance on providing financial support to Africa, which has thus far been marked by inflexibility.
    The world watches with bated breath, hopeful that reason will triumph over self-interest during COP28.

    This momentous event holds the potential to redefine the relationship between industrialized nations and Africa, transcending historical inequalities and fostering a more equitable and compassionate global approach.

    Men and women of goodwill from every corner of the globe eagerly await this pivotal juncture, yearning for a future where humanity’s collective welfare takes precedence over individual agendas.

    Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst ,author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.
    To continue with this conversation and more ,please visit www.magnum.ng

  • The Israeli-Gaza tragedy and parallel wars around the world – By Magnus Onyibe

    The Israeli-Gaza tragedy and parallel wars around the world – By Magnus Onyibe

    Throughout history and frequently in the contemporary era, conflicts have frequently arisen due to disputes over territory. Therefore, it is unsurprising that the current conflict between Israel and Gaza can also be primarily attributed to a territorial struggle.

    On one side, the Israelis assert ownership of the land they currently inhabit, presenting it as their ancestral territory. Conversely, the Palestinians also stake their claim to the same land, contending that it has been inherited from their forebears.

    Both Israelis and Palestinians have legitimate claims to the land based on their ancestral inheritance, though these claims originated in different eras separated by thousands of years. The ongoing destructive conflict between the two parties is primarily fueled by their differing perspectives on land entitlement.

    This crisis, rooted in historical events dating back approximately four millennia, culminated in the last major conflict between these two sides in 2014. However, the most recent escalation was precipitated by Hamas, which initiated a surprise invasion of Israel on Saturday, October 7th. This invasion resulted in the tragic loss of over a thousand Israeli lives, including children, elderly individuals, and men, while approximately 150 others were taken hostage in Gaza.
    In a retaliatory move, Israel initiated a military operation in Gaza, which serves as the headquarters for Hamas. As of the most recent update on the eighth day of the conflict, it is estimated that approximately 2,600 Gaza residents, including children, women, and the elderly, have tragically lost their lives due to actions carried out by the Israeli Defense Force (IDF).

    Before delving further into this matter and to provide context for a more comprehensive understanding, let me draw a parallel between the current crisis in Israel and Gaza and similar conflicts involving land and territorial disputes around the world, as this incident carries significant global implications.
    Consider, for instance, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2021, now nearly two years ago, unless the conflict concludes before February of the coming year. Much like the ongoing Israeli/Gaza conflict spearheaded by the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) against HAMAS, which fundamentally revolves around claims to the strip of land situated between Egypt and Israel, commonly known as the Gaza Strip, the Russian invasion of Ukraine primarily concerns territorial dominance.

    Prior to the Russian incursion into Ukraine, a region that was once a part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) before the era of perestroika, under the leadership of President Mikhail Gorbachev, during which the Soviet Union experienced dissolution, Europe had not witnessed a major conflict since the Falklands War between the United Kingdom (UK) and Argentina on April 2, 1982.
    The conflict began when Argentina initiated an occupation of the Falkland Islands and South Georgia, located in the South Atlantic Ocean. These territories are claimed by the United Kingdom as part of its overseas holdings. Despite having their own local governance, these regions had been under British colonial rule since 1841 and were predominantly inhabited by British descendants.

    Conversely, Argentina asserts its sovereignty over these lands, characterizing its actions as an effort to reclaim its territory. This raises a parallel to the ongoing Israel/Gaza conflict, where a dispute over ancestral land with the current occupiers shares similarities with the root cause of the conflict.

    After a 74-day conflict between the United Kingdom and Argentina, in which 649 Argentine soldiers tragically lost their lives and 255 British military personnel perished, Argentina surrendered the Falkland Islands to the UK precisely two months, one week, and five days after its forcible takeover.

    In addition to the loss of lives on both sides, there were significant socioeconomic repercussions. On the Argentine side, the military government’s standing among citizens plummeted, and the defeat at the hands of the UK accelerated the collapse of the military regime. This defeat paved the way for the installation of a democratically elected government.

    Conversely, the victory bolstered the position of the ruling party in the UK at the time, leading to its successful reelection.

    The Falklands War took place in 1982, approximately four decades ago. Today, there is a pertinent parallel to be drawn between this historical conflict and the ongoing situation in the Middle East, where the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) is engaged in hostilities with Hamas, the governing authority of the Gaza Strip.

    In parallel to this, a contemporary conflict is unfolding between Russia and Ukraine, with the latter having been a part of the former Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR) prior to its dissolution.

    Much like the present conflict initiated by Israel against the Gaza Strip, led by Hamas, following an unexpected incursion into the Israeli-controlled portion of Gaza on October 7, resulting in a substantial loss of life, the Russia-Ukraine conflict revolves around territorial disputes and claims to ancestral lands.

    Coincidentally, it was Russia that initiated the offensive against Ukraine, much like Hamas was the initial aggressor against Israel.

    The ongoing conflict involving Russia’s assault on Ukraine, now spanning 18 months since its inception in February 2021, has generated significant global repercussions.

    These consequences include elevated inflation resulting from food scarcity, particularly grains, a substantial portion of which originates from Ukraine. Additionally, energy shortages, such as natural gas, predominantly supplied by Russia to European nations, with a particular emphasis on Germany, have also become pronounced as a result of the conflict.

    The global ramifications of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have led to several significant issues, including the scarcity of bread and its sources and the prohibitive cost of this essential staple, primarily derived from wheat, for African nations and other regions in the Third World. The challenge arises from the constraints on wheat production and exportation out of Ukraine.

    Furthermore, a shortage of diesel fuel has become prevalent in many African countries, notably Nigeria. This shortage stems from the ongoing war waged by Russia, a major supplier of diesel to the African continent. The consequences of this scarcity extend to a sharp increase in the prices of this critical resource used to power industrial facilities, compounding concerns for manufacturing enterprises worldwide.

    Indeed, it is widely acknowledged that following the global COVID-19 pandemic, which profoundly impacted the world for approximately two years, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has emerged as a significant factor contributing to the current high inflation rates that are impeding economic growth and development in nations worldwide, regardless of their development status.

    In light of this situation, there is a heightened sense of concern regarding the potential escalation of the conflict initiated about a week ago by Israel against Hamas in Gaza. This military action was undertaken in response to an attack by Hamas, which resulted in the loss of Israeli lives within a Gaza kibbutz and extended beyond the borders of both nations.
    In addition to the significant loss of life, with the death toll surpassing 5,000 casualties on both sides in a mere eight-day period of the conflict, there is a looming risk of involvement from nations like Iran, which is steadily advancing its nuclear capabilities and actively supporting groups like Hamas. Furthermore, there is a potential for other regional players, including Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, and others, to be drawn into the conflict, especially if it is framed as a religious war. This presents a clear and immediate threat.

    To mitigate the potential escalation and prevent further strain on the global economy, already burdened by the adverse impacts of climate change, the United States of America (USA) is currently undertaking shuttle diplomacy efforts to engage key stakeholders in the region and promote de-escalation.
    In pursuit of this objective, the United States Secretary of State, Mr. Anthony Blinken, undertook diplomatic missions to Israel, followed by visits to Saudi Arabia and Egypt, before returning to Israel. His primary aim was to engage in negotiations aimed at deescalating the ongoing crisis, a situation in which Israel teetered on the brink of launching a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, governed by Hamas. Such an escalation could potentially result in severe, if not catastrophic, humanitarian consequences.

    The current crisis in Israel and Gaza, which has elicited widespread international concern, is not a novel occurrence in this region. Geographically, Israel is situated along the eastern Mediterranean coast, sharing borders with Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and Egypt. Historical records indicate the existence of Israel dating back to as early as 1000 BC, as documented in biblical accounts.
    Over the years, Israel faced various adversities, most notably the Holocaust during Nazi Germany’s regime. This tumultuous period led to Israel’s displacement across multiple locations in the Middle East and Europe over several centuries. Eventually, Israel returned to its original ancestral homeland, as documented in biblical records.

    Israel reclaimed its present location in 1948, following the conclusion of World War II. This relocation was facilitated under the auspices of the United Nations through UN Resolution 181.

    Conversely, Palestine, which disputes Israel’s claim to the region, also regards it as its ancestral home. Historically, both Israel and Palestine have had valid claims to the land, but these claims emerged at different points in history.
    The State of Israel was officially established on May 15, 1948, and gained admission to the United Nations. However, a Palestinian state was not concurrently established. Instead, the remaining territories of pre-1948 Palestine, namely the West Bank, which includes East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip, were administered by Jordan and Egypt, respectively, from 1948 to 1967.

    According to Britannica.com, the term “Palestine” has its origins in “Philistia,” a name coined by Greek historians to describe the region occupied by the Philistines during the 12th century BCE. This area was a small coastal enclave situated between what is now modern Tel Aviv-Yafo and Gaza.

    Israel originally inhabited the land as far back as 1000 BC. However, the region witnessed successive conquests by various forces, including Christian inquisitors, ultimately leading to the displacement of the community known as the Tribe of Israel and their relocation to Europe.

    While residing in Europe, the Israelites, commonly referred to as Jews, endured persecution at the hands of Nazi Germany under the leadership of Adolf Hitler. This dark period witnessed the execution of approximately six million Jews through the utilization of gas chambers, as Hitler aimed to eradicate them, having unjustly labeled them as an inferior caste.

    This tragic event marked the world’s initial major genocide following the Armenian genocide, perpetrated by Turkey against Armenians in the Baku region of present-day Azerbaijan in 1915.

    Turkey has steadfastly refrained from acknowledging the historical event as genocide, a stance that persists to this day. However, it is worth noting that the United States, under the leadership of its 46th president, Joe Biden, recently took the significant step of officially recognizing this event as genocide, much to the dismay of Turkey.

    In order to provide a comprehensive perspective and simplify the understanding for the general public, it would be beneficial to illustrate the Israeli-Palestinian, Gaza, and Hamas situations through real and practical events.

    Efforts to foster peace between Israel and its neighboring nations have included the Madrid Conference in Spain in 1991, the Oslo Accord in Norway in 1993, and the Camp David Summit in year 2000, which was curated by the 42nd President of the United States, Mr. Bill Clinton.

    The enduring issue at the heart of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict stems from a deep-seated mutual animosity. Notably, Hamas and Iran have publicly expressed their intent to obliterate Israel, while in response, Israel has made similar threats towards both Hamas and Iran, the latter being perceived as a key supporter of the former.

    Israel has taken these threats seriously, as evident in its actions such as the Gaza siege and continuous vigilance regarding Iran’s nuclear program.

    Concurrently, the United States has undertaken the Abraham Accords as part of its recent diplomatic efforts in the Middle East. Spearheaded by Jared Kushner, son-in-law of former President Donald Trump, this initiative successfully brokered the restoration of business and diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, exemplified by the resumption of commercial airline flights between the two nations.

    However, all the peace initiatives between the nation of Israel and the Palestinian territory have proven futile due to the profound emotional attachments that both conflicting parties maintain toward the same ancestral land.

    The Russian Prime Minister, Mr. Vladimir Putin, is currently engaged in a military campaign against Ukraine with the objective of reclaiming the Russian-speaking and ethnically Russian parts of the region. This endeavor stems from the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) during the presidency of Mikhail Gorbachev from 1985 to 1991. The disintegration of the USSR was a carefully orchestrated process, taking place under the leadership of the 40th President of the United States, Mr. Ronald Reagan (1981–1989), and Mrs. Margaret Thatcher, who served as the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 1979 to 1990.

    During the tenure of the 44th President of the United States, Mr. Barack Obama, in 2014, Russia reasserted control over Crimea, a region originally part of Ukraine yet predominantly inhabited by Russian-speaking people. Despite the United States’ efforts, which included threats, it proved unsuccessful in preventing Mr. Putin from annexing Crimea, even though it had previously warned of taking action if Russia crossed the established red line by invading and occupying Crimea.

    Similarly, the Palestinian territory, led by Hamas, aspires to reclaim historical sovereignty over land currently occupied by Israel, mirroring Putin’s yearning for the revival of the old Russian Empire. This situation bears resemblance to China’s pursuit of sovereignty over Taiwan. These are complex issues, but they are pivotal existential realities of our time.

    Picture the Romans embarking on an ambitious quest to reestablish the ancient Roman Empire, extending their dominion from Greece to Spain, encompassing Italy, Germany, Belgium, France, Egypt, the United Kingdom, Libya, and Switzerland, among others. Similarly, envision Great Britain endeavoring to regain its former British Empire, spanning from Africa and the Caribbean to India and extending to Australia, Canada, and the United States.

    To illustrate this point more vividly, reflect upon the Alafin of the historical Oyo Empire and the Shehu of Borno from the Kanem-Bornu Empire, both attempting to resurrect their empires that have risen and fallen over several millennia ago.

    Would such endeavors not likely result in the type of chaos currently unfolding in Ukraine and Gaza?

    It is within this context that we should consider the dire situation in the Middle East, as exemplified by the ongoing crisis in Israel and the Gaza Strip.

    To underscore the profound connection humans hold with their ancestral territories, one can reflect on historical conflicts like the lfe-Modakeke Wars in Yorubaland, the Aguleri-Umuleri Ethnic Struggles in Igbo Land, and the Jukuns-Tiv Conflicts in the Middle Belt of Nigeria.

    These are just a few examples, not to mention the pasturalists encroachment on farmlands across Nigeria, spanning from the desert regions in the north, inhabited by the Hausa/fulani, to the savannahs of the Middle Belt, the mangroves in the forests of the South-West, and the wetlands of the South-East and South-South that resulted in bloody clashes nationwide.

    It is trite to state that the clashes between herdsmen and farmers have led to significant loss of life and property, occurring with alarming frequency, almost resembling an epidemic.

    One thing that is consistent in the narrative is that the lsrael -Hamas conflict like the others referenced in this piece is about struggle over ancestral land or territory by people of different cultures.
    So, let no one cast it as a religious war.

    In light of these narratives, it has become evident that territorial disputes rooted in ancestral ties are universally charged with intense emotions and often seem insurmountable. This is why the international community must approach this highly sensitive issue with the utmost caution to prevent the outbreak of a potential global conflict.

  • Triumphalism and denialism as fallouts of 2023 elections – By Magnus Onyibe

    Triumphalism and denialism as fallouts of 2023 elections – By Magnus Onyibe

    Justice Monica Dongben-Mensem, the esteemed president of the court of appeals, has expressed concern about the strain placed on the judiciary as a result of an excessive caseload, mostly attributed to the inundation of political issues into the court system.

    Her Lordship disclosed that during and after the 2023 election period, politicians officially presented a noteworthy total of 1,209 appeals. These appeals are presently receiving privileged attention, potentially eclipsing other matters of economic and social importance in the country, consequently relegating non-political legal concerns to a position of lesser priority.

    In her analysis, Justice Dongben-Mensem verified that out of 1,209 petitions filed, five (5) were specifically addressing the Presidential Election Petition Court, while 147 pertained to the senatorial election. Additionally, 417 petitions were related to the House of Representatives, 557 were associated with the state Houses of Assembly, and 83 focused on gubernatorial elections.

    Although the distinguished jurist identified the high number of election-related lawsuits during this period as being primarily attributed to a deficiency in internal democratic processes within the political parties, it is also important to acknowledge the existence of an additional contributing component, which is the necessity for more amendments to our country’s legislation, specifically the Electoral Act of 2022.

    These revisions should aim to address the existing loopholes and ensure a more comprehensive framework, a responsibility that falls upon the legislators of the 10th National Assembly (NASS).

    As the verdicts of the various election petition tribunals began to trickle in on September 6th, with the five (5) justices who sat over the Presidential Election Petition, PEPT, leading the charge, the political atmosphere in Nigeria has become fraught with multiple upheavals, with a good number of senators, members of the House of Representatives, governors, and members of state houses of assembly having their victories overturned.

    As of the most recent count, the tribunals have invalidated the governorship elections in Kano and Kaduna states, as well as several senatorial and House of Representatives elections across the country, and the election of the current speaker of the Plateau state assembly has also been invalidated.

    The current situation implies that there is likely to be a prolonged backlog of cases in the judicial system, as politicians whose election outcomes have been overturned will pursue further legal action in higher courts in a bid to revalidate their electoral success.

    Initially, owing to number of elections over turned,supporters of the Labor Party (LP) believed that the tribunals were specifically targeting their candidates. However, they later realized that candidates from other political parties, including the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the ruling party All Progressives Congress (APC), and even the smaller New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), were also experiencing setbacks in the electoral tribunals.

    Given that the LP and PDP presidential candidates are currently pursuing legal action to challenge the victory and assumption of the APC candidate as president, it is important to note that their claims are based on allegations of a technical malfunction during the transmission of the presidential results.

    This malfunction supposedly facilitated the manipulation of the outcome in favor of the declared winner by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). However, it is perplexing to observe that the results of other elections, which were not reported to have encountered any issues with the electronic transmission of results, are also being contested and invalidated.

    The point being made here is that some of the results of both the Senatorial and House of Representatives elections that were passed electronically into the INEC database and displayed via IReV and which were adjudged to be unassailable by those denying President Tinubu’s victory at the February 25 polls have been decided by the various state tribunals as being tainted.

    The events seen in tribunals around the country, which have led some politicians to express jubilation via triumphalism while others exhibit denialism, indicate that the principle of justice remains impartial. The emblematic representation of justice, often shown as a blindfolded woman wielding a sword in one hand and a scale in the other, serves as a powerful embodiment of the concept of justice. In the context of the 2023 elections, in my view,this symbol has been used to impartially administer justice to all candidates involved.

    It is plausible to surmise that the electoral tribunals around the country are working autonomously rather than in concert, resulting in distinct rulings tailored to specific cases.

    In this context, if the judiciary is really seen to be biased towards the All Progressives Congress (APC), as claimed by the opposition, it is noteworthy that the two governors who have been removed from office by the tribunals are from the APC (Kaduna state) and the NNPP (Kano state) stables.

    It is noteworthy to observe that there has been no instance of a reversal of a governor’s election conducted under the platforms of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) or the Labour Party (LP).
    Does that not suggest that the judiciary is working independent of the influence of the ruling party?

    Following President Tinubu’s inauguration on May 29, the opposition parties have mostly been in control of the election narrative, focusing on President Bola Tinubu’s academic history at Chicago State University (CSU) in particular.

    As a result of that, all eyes have been focused on the duel between the triumphant candidate of the APC, President Bola Tinubu, and the denier,who is the APC’s flag bearer and former vice president, Atiku Abubakar.

    Given that this conflict has now shifted across the Atlantic Ocean and is being considered within the jurisdiction of the United States court system, where significant action from the opposing sides has already played out,as the presiding judge in the US case, Nancy Maldonaldo has determined the ultimate victor between the two parties with respect to Discovery order of court on Chicago State University,CSU, our focus will solely be directed towards the presidential elections within this discourse.

    To establish context, American attorney Angela Liu, the legal representative of former vice president Atiku Abubakar, lodged a formal complaint with CSU which president Tinubu’s alma mater requesting the disclosure of his alleged counterfeit certificate.

    In response, Christopher McCarthy, President Tinubu’s attorney, sought to postpone the release of his client’s personal information, citing potential harm if done hastily. This legal tactic was utilized to allow sufficient time for the preparation of a comprehensive response, a common strategy frequently employed by legal professionals.

    Coincidentally, similar to President Tinubu’s legal team, Atiku Abubakar’s lawyers also requested an accelerated hearing of the case in the United States court, presided over by Judge Jeffrey Gilbert. This request was made due to the potential harm that any further delay in obtaining the academic records from CSU could cause to the petitioner’s case.

    It is important to note that, according to the Electoral Act 2022, introducing new evidence in Nigeria’s Supreme Court is prohibited after a certain period of time, thus making it time-barred.

    On Monday, September 25th, which is the date that Judge Macdonaldo granted permission for the response to be submitted, President Tinubu’s legal team argued that the petitioner’s request would be considered a fishing expedition.

    For the sake of those unfamiliar with legalese, it is important to clarify that the term “fishing” in legal discourse refers to a situation where the motive behind seeking the authority to inquire is unclear.

    On the contrary, it is anticipated that upon the conferral of authority, a favorable outcome will ensue. According to law dictionary, it is typically uncommon for courts to approve such claims due to their tendency to be speculative in nature.

    The ongoing legal dispute between former Nigerian vice president Atiku Abubakar and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the courts of the United States of America bears resemblance to a previous incident involving former US President Donald Trump.

    While preparing for his contest for the presidency of the US, Trump made claims asserting that former President Barack Obama was not born in the United States. Due to the absence of substantiating evidence, the individual in question was embarking on an exploratory endeavor, akin to a fishing expedition, with the intention of unearthing potentially compromising information by asserting that Mr. Obama is not of American origin.

    Initially, President Obama refrained from providing his birth certificate as a means to refute Mr. Trump’s assertion. This situation subsequently led to Trump’s associates initiating efforts to obtain President Obama’s academic records through legal channels, albeit without success.

    Eventually, President Obama chose to release his birth certificate voluntarily, thereby making it available for public scrutiny. Upon the release of this document, which served as confirmation of his birth within the United States, Donald Trump was ignominiously silenced.

    Coincidentally, former President Trump had also taken measures to protect his personal and corporate financial records from authorities in the state of New York and the general public, both prior to and following his assumption of the presidency as the 44th president of the United States.

    However, on Tuesday, September 26th, the city of New York successfully obtained official access to his financial records. Consequently, charges of fraud were brought against former President Trump and his two sons for allegedly inflating the value of their real estate asset in New York, namely the Trump Tower etc.

    After employing legal measures to impede access to his financial records for nearly a decade,the regulator eventually obtained the aforementioned information. Upon review, did the regulator discover compelling evidence against President Trump that was anticipated to be very impactful or revelatory? Indeed, they did not. This assertion stems from longstanding claims that the real estate magnate, Mr. Trump, maintained connections with both organized crime and the Russian government.

    During the prelude to the 2019 presidential campaign for re-election , opponents of Trump contended that he engaged in strategic politicking towards Russia due to a perceived influence the nation held over him, potentially stemming from his involvement in illicit activities on Russian soil.

    The recent judgment by the New York Court reveals that Mr. Trump has been accused solely of engaging in the act of inflating the worth of his real estate holdings and nothing else. So, after all the hoopla regarding former President Trump’s finances, it turned out to be a little more than hot air as he was not found to be linked to any sinister activities as had been suspected.

    This may be the case in the Atiku Abubakar/Bola Tinubu/CSU legal battle in the United States now that a superior court under judge Nancy Maldonado has ruled that president Tinubu’s CSU academic record (non-personal) must be released to the petitioner, as earlier ruled by judge Jeffery Gilbert.

    In Nigeria, many have also referenced the instance involving former president Goodluck Jonathan, wherein he denied the request for the disclosure of his Doctor of Philosophy,PhD records from the educational institution from which he graduated . The university’s response to the Freedom of Information (FOI) request, in which they declined to give the information to a human rights and good governance advocacy group, has gained significant attention on various social media platforms.

    While the veracity of the social media report remains unverified, the act of withholding or obstructing the disclosure of educational records to political adversaries is not an unprecedented occurrence in Nigeria.

    At this juncture, it is apropos that we take a hard look at all the possible scenarios in the unfolding elections 2023 saga in order to have a good sense of the possible final outcome of the epic political battle between the ruling party and the main opposition party’s candidates for the presidency of our beloved country.

    For the purposes of this discussion and conjecture, it should be noted that it is a well-established fact in Nigeria, as well as the rest of the world, that a male and a female can have the same name, particularly when the name is unisex, as in the cases of Chika, Uche in Igbo land, and Bola, Biodun in Yoruba land.

    The prevalence of individuals sharing identical names is particularly widespread within the Hausa/Fulani region, where there is a significant number of perhaps up to one million Mohammed Abubakars who do not necessarily share the same lineage nor originate from the same locality or state.

    The prevalence of shared names among individuals with origins from the northern region of our nation can be attributed to the historical practice of naming Hausa and Fulani individuals after their respective towns or villages of origin. Consider the late Mallam Isah Funtua, who was named after Funtua town, or Dr. Musa Kwakwanso, hailing from Kwakwanso village.

    From a technical and political standpoint, it is plausible to consider the scenario where a female individual, other than President Tinubu who is male , is claimed to have gained admission into CSU. In this context, it is conceivable that both a female named Bola Tinubu and a guy named Bola Ahmed Tinubu, distinguishable by their middle names, may have been admitted into CSU around the same period.

    And what if the clerk who documented Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s records at CSU made a typographical error and put female instead of male while carrying out the assignment? What if all the hullabaloo was caused by two (2) letters FE being unintentionally added to MALE to give the impression that there was a female Bola Tinubu?

    The reason for raising the above posers is that these are political times wherein saying and doing things just to make political opponents furious or ticked off and fall into error are legitimate political weapons.

    If the court has granted the petitioners’ full request, would this not amount to inadvertently giving aid to an opposition candidate, whom the intervenor has accused of conducting opposition research?

    Is it not the reason why judges preside in the Temple of Justice with meticulous scrutiny, considering all aspects of a case, in order to ensure that justice is not only served but also perceived to be served?

    William Blackstone, an English legal scholar, coined the proverb “It is better to err on the side of caution” in his influential 1760 book Commentaries on the Laws of England.

    This statement provides a rationale for the legal principle in criminal law, commonly referred to as Blackstone’s ratio (or Blackstone’s formulation), which posits that “it is better that ten guilty persons escape than that one innocent suffer”.

    In trying to play the role of a devil’s advocate, one is of the opinion that proving a stolen identity case, which Turaki Atiku Abubakar’s lawyers are alleging and hoping would be the golden bullet to literally shoot down President Tinubu’s ambition and dispose him of his presidency following his election victory on February 25th, would not be a simple task, if not an impossible mission, and here are the reasons why.

    So far, there may not be a female Bola Tinubu who has complained about being impersonated. If she is alive,she would have to be a witness or be joined in the case. If she has passed on, she must have family members that would stand in for her.

    Otherwise, on what basis could it be asserted that Bola Ahmed Tinubu posed as a female Bola Tinubu in order to gain admission to CSU, given that no evidence of her existence is available?

    My intuition is that the narrative may not resonate with the judges of the Supreme Court in Nigeria (assuming new evidence is admitted) if the petitioner is unable to produce the female Bola Tinubu, a purported US citizen, whom they claim has been impersonated by the incumbent president of Nigeria, Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

    Under normal circumstances (especially on moral grounds), I would agree wholeheartedly that the educational records of President Tinubu or anyone else occupying public office should be released to the public so that he can receive acclaim for academic excellence, especially since President Tinubu’s CSU transcript reveals that his performance is in the top 10 percentile.

    However, I would want to protect my academic records if they were to be utilized for the purpose of doing opposition research on me. This is a commonly observed phenomenon in the realm of politics. President Tinubu and his legal team seem to consider the discovery litigation filed by the petitioner in this manner.

    The reality is that it is in the character of politicians to behave in ways that confound the general public. This is because there are almost always underlying issues in political affairs, and only tackless actors in the political game fall into the pitfalls set by their opponents, who draw them into the public arena by means of blackmail and conspiracy theories.

    The primary objective of shrewd politicians, however, is to convert the problems foisted upon them by their detractors (who are numerous) into promotion by doing things on their own terms.

    Imagine if President Tinubu’s academic records are eventually disclosed as directed by Judge Maldonado later this week, and they turn out to contain nothing objectionable.

    How would the legal and media teams of PDP candidate and former vice president Atiku Abubakar, who have been raising expectations and feeling triumphant, appear if it were determined that President Tinubu was admitted to CSU legally and did not engage in identity theft as has been alleged?

    Although it would seem as if l an holding brief for President Tinubu, the purpose of this piece is to enlighten Nigerians on the subject by highlighting the fact that politicians have numerous reasons to be extremely complex and convoluted in their behavior.

    The reality is that it is inherent in the essence of politics for players to engage in sophistry. Which is why I do not fault Nigerians who are perplexed by the ongoing political conflict between 2023 election winners and denialist politicians.

    In reality, there are always grey areas in politics, as opposed to black and white divides. And what is taking place today between former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is a classic illustration of things being in the grey zones of politics that can be perplexing to the uninitiated.

    During the legal proceedings in 2019 involving Atiku Abubakar and Muhammadu Buhari, Mallam Abba Kyari, who served as the Chief of Staff to President Buhari at the time, made an allegation that Atiku was of Cameroonian nationality rather than Nigerian.

    Supposedly, this can be attributed to his birthplace in Jadda, a region located within Adamawa State. Notably, Jadda was situated on the Cameroonian side, which had not yet been included in Nigeria prior to the vote that made Jadda a part of Nigeria . Despite the absurdity of the incident, it did occur.

    During the presidency of Alh. Shehu Shagari from 1979 to 1983, under the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), there were allegations made against Shugaba Daman, a candidate representing the Great Nigerian People Party (GNPP), an opposition party to Shagari’s National Party of Nigeria, NPN in Borno State.

    These allegations claimed that Daman was a foreigner from the Niger Republic. Consequently, it was determined that he did not meet the requirements to participate in the elections.

    In the meantime, Alh. Daman was living a normal life in Nigeria until he confronted the NPN and was drawn into the arena of anomie, as he was deported to the Niger Republic after the NPN obtained a favorable judgment. Is that not ludicrous?

    In 2003, I assumed a public office as a commissioner in Delta, my home state, through an appointment by Chief James Ibori, who served as governor from 1999 to 2007. Before the appointment was confirmed , I encountered vehement opposition from a local group that aimed to promote an alternative candidate for the commissioner position in my local government area.

    However, their efforts were unsuccessful, as Governor Ibori selected me for the appointment instead of their preferred candidate.

    In an attempt to obfuscate the situation, the local political interest group had disseminated a fabricated story, which can be characterized as a very deceptive falsehood, asserting that my origin was in Edo State rather than Agbor in Delta State.

    The individuals provided a rationale for their assertion subsequent to discovering the existence of a family residing in the border town between Edo and Delta State (Igbanke) who possessed an identical surname to mine. The absence of any biological or social connection to the specified family in Igbanke, Edo State, was inconsequential to them. In reality, I hail from Ogbe-Umudein, the homestead of the kingmakers in Agbor Kingdom.

    Following Governor Ibori’s dismissal of the false allegations and subsequent confirmation of my appointment, a period of calm ensued, and the individuals involved in the plot to undermine my political career revealed to me their collaborative efforts aimed at sabotaging my political trajectory. This exemplifies the nature of politics.

    As a result of the foregoing, my advice to those splitting hairs over President Tinubu’s academic records or those ecstatic that the president’s political career is about to be derailed by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, whose status has shifted from denial to triumphalism as a result of his victory in the US court, is to wait and see what happens in Nigeria’s Supreme Court, which is the final arbiter on the matter.

    While the Discovery case in the United States has kept optimism alive in Turaki Atiku Abubakar’s camp, Mr. Peter Obi’s ‘neck of the wood’ looks to have turned inactive. Will the US court’s finding that the discovery requested by the petitioner on President Tinubu’s academic records at CSU rouse the LP camp?

    The petitioner, former vice president Atiku Abubakar’s legal and media team, has been ecstatic about the explosive evidence that the president’s comprehensive academic records at CSU, once disclosed, may contain.

    And is there any sure guarantee possibility that when the new evidence (assuming it contains anything incriminating) is presented by the petitioner in his appeal to the Supreme Court of Nigeria, it will be admitted or permitted to matter in the case?

    And because the Supreme Court is structured to consider not only the fundamental principles of law but also the existential realities of society by balancing the positive against the negative effects of its decisions, the highest court will likely have a lot to ruminate on.

    Over all, the greatest beneficiaries of the hard-fought legal battles in the US and Nigeria would be the Nigerian electorate. That would be regardless of the triumphalism and denial of the 2023 elections by the ruling and main opposition parties and their presidential candidates, President Bola Tinubu and former vice president Atiku Abubakar.

    The assertion above is underscored by the fact that at the conclusion of the arduous litigation, our electoral law would be stronger.

    That is not discountenancing the fact that some attorneys in Nigeria and the United States have reaped and will continue to reap handsome financial rewards as a result of the rush to the courts by politicians who believe that the laws of our land, particularly with regard to the Electoral Act 2023, are too vague and therefore require the intervention of the judiciary, the third branch of government, and the interpreters of laws.

    Put succinctly, as someone who considers himself an optimist that constantly looks for the positive side of bad circumstances (turning lemons into lemonade) and who finds oasis in deserts, even though some critics think that the 2023 elections have brought democracy to its nadir in our nation,I am of the opinion that anything that emerges from the intensely contested legal battles in Nigeria and the US courts between Mr. Peter Obi of the LP and Turaki Atiku Abubakar of the PDP over President Bola Tinubu’s victory in the election 2023 would undoubtedly deepen the practice of democracy in Nigeria by turning it from what appears to be a narrative of doom, gloom, and a fledgling state into lofty heights.

    That is because our lawmakers in the 10th National Assembly will now see the obvious need to fine-tune the laws and rules governing elections, which need to be clarified and made watertight in order to avoid clogging the law courts with pre- and post-election litigation, which the Appeal Court President Justice Monica Dongben-Mensem has lamented as putting too much undue strain on the judges.

    According to the jurist, the prominence of electoral issues is overshadowing and displacing other facets of life, such as commercial disputes and familial problems, which also need legal resolution. Moreover, the prioritization of political cases seems to be superseding other matters during the present election period.

    Having been apprised of the above information, it is my fervent hope and l guess the expectation of all well-meaning Nigerians that the 10th National Assembly will tie up all the loose ends in the Electoral Act 2022 that have caused politicians to rush to the courts over election matters so that apolitical Nigerians can breathe.

     

    Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst, author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.
    To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng.