Tag: Magnus Onyibe

  • Africa and the conflict of ‘good’ and ‘bad’ coups – By Magnus Onyibe

    Africa and the conflict of ‘good’ and ‘bad’ coups – By Magnus Onyibe

    Can the current raft of coup de-tats in Africa be a signal to the end of imperialism in the continent?
    That is the question on the lips of most keen watchers of progress in Africa since the continent got partitioned by thirteen (13) European countries and the United States of America, USA during the Berlin, Germany partitioning of Africa in 1884/85 under the chairmanship of Otto Von Bismarck,then leader of Germany.

    Before dwelling on what and who triggered the rush to Africa by European adventurers,which is her wealth in natural resources,it is appropriate that we dig a bit into some facts and fictions about Africa.
    That is because those factors have remained significant components of the narrative about the continent which has continued to be the least developed amongst the seven (7) continents in the world, in-spite of the fact that she has the most natural resources.

    Since the unfortunate military coup d’tat in Niger Republic on the 26th of July and another coup that was staged in Gabon on the 30th of August,there has been a deluge of commentaries about the unfortunate deceleration of democracy in the continent of Africa.

    So, in deviation from the path already well trodden by the multiplicity of commentators on the matter,l would like to crave the indulgence of readers to allow me discuss the epidemic of coups currently ravaging the continent of Africa from the prism of international relations which is right down my alley,since it is my core area of academic studies.

    To cast our minds beyond the coups which are actually symptoms of the disruption, disorganization and destruction via fragmentation of the core fabric of Africa by European invaders who divided up our continent as far back as 1884/5 during the infamous Berlin conference,which is about 130 years ago,we have to go back to the origin of our continent which was defined by the tongues,tribes and cultures of the people ,not the artificial borders drawn up by the colonialists that carved up the continent into multiple countries to suit their whims and caprices.

    To do that comprehensively,we have to get down to the brass tacks by looking at both the mythologies and realities that have been prevailing in Africa.

    In particular,king Mansa Musa,the ruler of ancient Mali empire who traveled to Mecca on religious pilgrimage,in a convoy of horses and Carmel’s loaded with gold,out of which he gifted so much to new friends that he met along the way during his trip,triggered the interest of Europeans adventurers,whom it had dawned on,that Africa must be very rich in natural resources,particularly rare and precious gemstones such as gold and other ornaments.

    In the same realm of fantasy,and more recently,there was a time it was generally believed that a former head of state of Nigeria,late Gen. JTU Aguiyi Ironsi had the mystic power of turning into a crocodile.
    That is why the coupist who were detailed to arrest him in lbadan during the counter coup in 1967 when he was being hosted by Brigadier General Adekunle Fajuyi,then military governor of western region, were reportedly full of trepidation as they were about to execute the arrest order.

    As the story goes,and as affirmed in a plethora of books written by major participants in the Nigerian civil war, the non commissioned officers who were detailed to effect the arrest hesitated,because they had to first of all make sure that Gen.Ironsi’s swagger stick (the source of the mystical prowess) was snatched to prevent him from disappearing or vanishing into the thin air to evade arrest.

    The above anecdote is a reflection of the level of acceptance of mythology which is so ridiculously high in Africa that basically everything,no matter how nonsensical,is usually believed.

    Staying in the arena of rumor in Africa ,the recently deposed president of the natural resources endowed nation,Gabon was back in 2015 purported to be an lgbo man from the eastern flanks of Nigeria, particularly from Owerri in lmo state.

    The rumor emanated from the PM News of 13th November 2015 which reported it as front page news.
    The same unsubstantiated news was also reported by an online news platform, Sahara Reporters which claimed that Ali Bongo was an adopted son of late president Omar Bongo of Gabon.

    As the conspiracy theory goes,the Elder Bongo who didn’t have a male child and had to adopt Ali when he (Ali) along with other war ravaged children were airlifted from Uli airstrip near Owerri,the lmo state capital,during the Nigerian civil war that took place between 1967 and 1970.

    While it is true and on record that the Red Cross,a global humanitarian agency had made efforts to save the innocent children that were the most vulnerable victims of the Biafran war and were suffering from kwashiorkor by airlifting them to Libreville, the Gabonese capital,there is no record of Ali Bongo’s adoption by the late Omar Bongo.

    Rumors aside,what is not in doubt is that France took over the rulership of crude oil and manganese rich Gabon in 1885 and started administering her in 1903.

    At this juncture, it is worth taking note of the fact that France took over Gabon right after Africa was partitioned by European invaders in the year 1884/5 during the infamous and ignoble Berlin,Germany conference which happened without Africa being invited to the meeting that was held in the better part of three (3) months where she was carved up and shared amongst strangers.

    The telltale there is that if you connect the dots,it would be clear that France has been involved in the administration of Gabon since its founding,yet the country has been suffering from arrested development.

    In the course of this discourse,we will return to the origin and consequences of the disruption of life in Africa by Europeans by way of their redefining African boundaries resulting in cousins being separated by the artificial borders created by Europeans.

    An active instance can be found in the northern parts of Nigeria where most of them are reluctant to go to war against Niger Republic junta in compliance with the ECOWAS plan to invade the Nigerian neighbor following the military coup that toppled a democratically elected president and government.
    That is simply because most of those across the border in Niger Republic are cousins to Nigerians from the states contiguous to their common borders.

    Were it not for European invasion,most Nigerians in the north and Niger Republic indigenes would remain in same country as kith and kins.

    But for now,it is pertinent that we delve into the reason that Europe has continued to be disruptive to the growth and development of Africa pre and post colonialism and even in current times through nuanced empire building antics.

    For instance, after granting Gabon independence in August 1960,France has continued to tele-guide the country by tying her finances to French west African currency CFA (Communante Financial d’Afrique) translated as Financial Community of Africa ,under the auspices of West African Economic And Monetary Union,which is managed from Paris by France.

    Records from imf.org indicate that the Financial Community of Africa also known as CFA is a financial instrument with which France has been controlling the economies and destinies of fourteen (14) independent African nations,eight (8) of which were formerly her colonies.

    Incidentally,the 14 countries under the apron strings of France include Niger republic where the military had on 26 July toppled the elected president.

    lt was barely one month after,30 August that another military coup took place in Gabon which is another French enclave.

    The significant rise in the number of coups in Africa,leading to the take over by the military of seven(7) countries that were under democratic governance since 2020, ranging from Burkina Faso,Guinea Bissau, Mali ,Chad, Sudan,Niger and Gabon has prompted the Economic Community of West African States,ECOWAS to take the hard stance of stemming the tide before it becomes contagious.

    That is why the new ECOWAS chairman and President of Nigeria,Bola Ahmed Tinubu in concert with the leadership of the regional body declared that the toppled president Mohamed Bazoun must be restored back to office.

    For existential reasons,the enforcement of the order has proven to be quite difficult to implement.

    But while the coupists in Niger Republic got an ultimatum (which they have flouted) to restore the mandate of the ousted president Mohamed Bazoun or face the wrought of ECOWAS forces that may intervene to enforce the order,the coup plotters in Gabon were not given the same marching order to restore Ali Bongo as president and quit the scene or be forced to do so by military force.

    That differentiation in approach to resolving the coups in both Niger Republic and Gabon that occurred within a space of one month(26 July -30th August),has compelled some political aficionados to define both coups as ‘good’ and ‘bad’ coup.

    The answer to how and why two (2) coups d’tats can be defined as ‘bad’ and ‘good’ could be found in Africa’s history of exploitation by Europeans dating back to 130 years ago since the partitioning of the continent in Berlin,Germany in 1884/5.

    Before delving into the nitty gritty, presumably,it would be easily discernible to keen observers why the coup that toppled Bazoun of the nation of Niger that had not completed his term,but was in the nascent stages before he was ousted can be seen as ‘bad’ coup; but Mr Bongo that had tweaked with the status book of his country to self perpetuate for a third term even after his family has been ruling the country for about 56 years,is being deemed as a ‘good’ coup.

    But before attending to the question on whether Military Coups in Africa are becoming death knell for neo-colonialism which is the kernel of the matter at hand, let us take a critical look at the implications of the most recent two (2) coups in the west African region that have become a huge burden,if not a sort of albatross on the leadership of ECOWAS which was thrust on Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu.

    As we may recall ,after barely two months of mounting the throne at Aso Rock Villa seat of presidential power on 29 May 2023,and a little more or less than three (3) weeks after he accepted the baton of leadership as chairman of ECOWAS,he got swamped by a plethora of foreign policy challenges.
    These include addressing the fall outs of the two coups which occurred on 26 July and 30 August respectively and aligning Nigeria with the emerging power blocks,especially the G-20 which is a body of countries that control the levers of power of economic and political affairs of the world.

    So,untangling the web of coups in Africa that date back as far as 1963 when the first successful military coup was staged in Togo wherein President Sylvanus Olympio was assassinated has become one of the responsibilities that president Tinubu did not seek.

    And it is a burden that he was compelled to bear by virtue of the fact that he had emerged as Nigeria’s president at a time that it was our country’s turn to preside over the ECOWAS.

    That burden of managing the epidemic of coups not withstanding,the responsibility of marketing Nigeria to potential investors that President Tinubu was rearing to pursue with utmost zeal,even while he was president-in-waiting has led to his plugging Nigeria into the new world economic order via aggressive introduction of our country to the world leveraging the shuttle diplomacy that he had made to Paris,France and London,UK shortly after his election to share with investors out there the new vistas of business opportunities that his bouquet of policy changes has opened for them to take stakes in Nigeria which is the biggest market in Africa.

    That move has been capped by attending the G-20 meeting that has just been concluded in India where our president made a declaration to the 20 most powerful countries in the world that G-20 without Nigeria is incomplete.

    Although only African Union,AU has been admitted into G-20 during the 63rd meeting which held from the 9-10th September in India,the storming of the meeting by President Tinubu and top government apparatchik,plus a powerful delegation of Nigerian business men and women,Nigeria has announced her arrival on the international scene.

    And by that gesture he has also signaled to the world that our country is now open for business driven by the liberalization of the economy by the largest market in Africa via her Tinubunomics doctrine.

    Although President Tinubu that was already racing against time in navigating through a maze of internal socioeconomic and political issues besetting our country that he had inherited from his predecessor; and which he had to deal with squarely before they snowball was threatening to overwhelm him,he still had time to attend to the epidemic of autocracy, which he had aptly tagged contagion of coups sweeping across the continent.

    To put things in perspective,a bit of background information about the regional body,ECOWAS would be in order.

    It was formed in 1975 and it is currently comprised of 15 member states with a combined population of 387 million and nominal GDP of $816 billion.

    The member states are Benin,Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone and Togo.

    At the last count,there were seven (7) countries in a period of three years,between 2020 to 2023 that have fallen off the cliff of democracy into the abyss of autocracy via toppling of democratically elected presidents in the west African region.

    These are Burkina Faso, Guinea Bissau,Chad,Mali.

    The others are Sudan,Niger and Gabon which are now under the military jackboot.

    The palpable concern and ominous sign that the military is gaining more grounds in more countries in Africa , particularly West Africa, as such more countries that had embraced democracy may toe the path to dictatorship similar to the ones passed through by their contemporaries,if the ogre of coups is not stopped in its tracks before it becomes a trend.

    Apparently,it is in attempts to forestall copy cat coups in neighboring countries, that African nations presidents such as Paul Kagame of Rwanda sacked a huge number of top military officers including twelve (12) generals and replaced them with a new crop of officers loyal to him.

    It is a strategy,if you like tactics that President Paul Biya of Cameroon has also replicated in his country by reshuffling the military hierarchy of his country.

    Incidentally,the Rwandan and Cameroonian presidents are taking the preemptive measures of checkmating the military generals in their countries because they are sit tight leaders who have tweaked with the constitutions of their respective countries to enable them perpetuate themselves in office beyond their due term after changing the rules of the game.

    Ordinarily and under normal circumstances, the epidemic of autocracy currently sweeping across Africa,would be deemed as ill wind that would bode no good for the continent.

    But the African Continent has been subjected to extraordinarily sordid experiences in the hands of her colonizers that have kept them in perpetual servitude via imperialist practices since 18884/85.

    That is because although independence has been granted to all the countries on the African continent,the countries economies and often times political systems are still under the vice grip and overwhelming yoke of their colonizers.

    That is particularly so with respect to France which is the biggest culprit in the exploitation of African countries for their natural resources and often times,even their finances have remained encumbered by way of being tied to the French economy via the France Monetary Zone arrangement, CFA.

    In fact, there is a notion that France is mainly the reason that there has been a harvest of coup d’ tats in Africa. That is evidenced by the fact that most recent military putsches in the African continent have taken place in Francophone countries.

    The European countries that had practically carved up Africa amongst themselves,comprise of English,French, Spanish and German speaking nations including Belgium which have forced their language ,cultural and religious beliefs on hapless Africans most of whom have lost their original cultures before the invasion of the Europeans.

    Research by the pair of M Powell and Clayton Thyne who are Americans that have taken interest in researching into the evolution of coups in the world and indeed Africa, indicate that of the 486 coups that were staged since 1950, 214 happened in Africa and 106 were successfully staged.
    It is was further revealed that at least 45 of the 54 countries in Africa have experienced coup d’tats.

    Although,the origin of the word Africa as the name of the continent has been disputed by scholars, the Greek word ‘Aphrike’ which is translated as “without cold” and the Latin word ‘Aprica’ meaning “Sunny” are generally believed to be the words common to Europeans, particularly Phoenicians ,Greeks and Romans which they used to refer to the continent.

    Also ,the word AFRU-lKA which means motherland in Egyptian language is also a probable source of the name,Africa.

    As most of us are well aware, the Europeans quest to conquer Africa commenced with the expeditions embarked upon by the likes of Mungo Park,a Scottish explorer to whom Western historians ascribe the discovery of the River Niger in 1796 ,which is totally preposterous.

    That is because the River niger had been existing before the adventurers set foot in African soil,so the Scottish explorer actually should be credited only for putting the majestic river Niger on the European map,no more,no less.

    Since then,the nature of the grip of Europeans on Africa and her rich natural resources have been mutating from their first coming as missionaries preaching the gospel of God to being slave traders with Africans as the merchandise,then later as colonialists by ruling over Africans in the quest of exploiting the natural resources that abound and which they have been carting away to develop Europe to their current role as imperialists engaged in unfair trade practices against Africa.

    On a wholistic assessment of the situation,one fact that is glaring and indisputable is that they do not intend to let go of obtaining African natural resources for little or nothing as opposed to engaging in fair trade with Africans in the manner that they do with fellow Europeans,Americans,Arabs and Asians.
    It is such incongruities that are at the heart of the instability in Africa.

    Historical records indicate that the scramble for Africa was triggered by king Leopold ll of Belgium in the Congo basin.

    Bearing in mind how the Belgians destroyed the entire landscape of the Democratic Republic of Congo,DRC in their long exploitation of the vast land in search of precious metals,until the country degenerated into its current status of being a waste land,

    Going by the narrative of how Belgium ruined DRC via reckless exploitation of the abundant natural resources such as cobalt essential for manufacturing Electric Vehicles, EVs in that country, it would be clear that all the fourteen (14) African countries under the French monetary Union known as CFA have been suffering the misfortune of being exploited for their highly valuable natural resources, would also be groaning in pains by being French colonies also known as Francophone nations.

    That is underscored by the fact that although former French colonies have been granted independence,the reality is that political freedom has been mere facade as they have remained under the grips of French authorities that have continuously pillaged the continent through neocolonialism.

    Take the situation in Niger Republic which is home to huge uranium deposits,another highly priced material critical to the production of nuclear bomb.

    Due to the importance of uranium,France has a military contingent stationed there just as the USA equally has a military base Niger Republic.

    Ostensibly,both countries can be said to be protecting those assets from getting into the hands of terrorists who could convert it to weapons of mass destruction, WMD.

    That is fair and justifiable.

    But nothing justifies the level of poverty in Niger Republic that is so rich in natural resources,but remains one of the poorest nations on earth,hence it is a hot bed of terrorism in Africa.

    It beggars belief that the developed world would not allow the country that is rich in uranium enjoy the deserved benefits of their God given uranium through fair trade.

    The socioeconomic situation in Niger Republic validates my position in my last piece in my column last week titled “Are BRICS And G20 Assets Or Liabilities?”where l argued that capitalism and inequality are major culprits for terrorism in the world as the victims have been lashing out at their presumed oppressors by way of terrorist activities.

    As the aphorism goes,extraordinary situations deserve extraordinary decisions and actions.

    Such a mindset or attitude,although nihilistic is perhaps a weird justification by coup plotters and even terrorists of their dastardly actions.

    That is why on one hand, it is difficult to chide the citizens of the countries who are celebrating on the streets of the countries where a plethora of military coup detats has been staged since 2020 which as at the last count,as earlier stated,number up to seven (7).

    And on another hand, in line with the conventional wisdom: ‘the worst democracy is better than the best military rule’, most men and women of goodwill in Nigeria and indeed Africa detest military incursion into politics and restrain themselves from endorsing regime change through barrels of the gun and the operation of government through military diktat.

    That is what has thrown up the conflict of ‘Good’ and ‘Bad’ coups that l had earlier illustrated with the coups in Niger Republic and Gabon.

    Whereas there are two types of coups which involve military and civilian,it is mainly the military ones that are notorious and often condemned while the coups perpetrated by politicians via tenure elongation are accommodated .

    But it would appear that such attitude to coups is fast changing as Africans are now calling out political office holders who sit tight in office by hook or crook.

    The realty is that sit tight democratically elected presidents in Africa who tweak with the constitutions of their countries to enable them elongate their tenures are also guilty of being coup plotters.
    As such they are culpable like the military juntas.

    In particular,the worst culprit amongst former colonizers in buffeting sit tight leaders is the French that have continued to have military bases in most of her former colonial enclaves,so much so that the French are seen as the alternative government by being the unseen hands behind the throne.

    That is the case in Gabon which is rich in crude oil and manganese which are major foreign exchange earners,yet the citizens of the country are very poor and the standard of living of the nationals is abysmally low.

    Whereas the population of Europe is estimated to be less than 750 million, Africa is about more or less 1.5 billion people. And while there are about 44 sovereign nations in Europe,Africa boasts of 54 independent nations.

    But despite the superior numerical strength of Africa, Europe has continued to manipulate her basically because the continent missed the train during the Industrial Revolution that happened when the steam engine was invented in England in 1712 and the africa continent failed to get into the loop.

    The French and other colonists are being accused of buffeting the the sit tight leaders who they convert to their stooges. Hence, for instance,the Niger Republic coup plotters are vowing to arraign the ousted president Mohammed Bazoun for treason.

    The continued impunity of sit tight political leaders in Africa is clearly evidence of failure of African peer review mechanism embodied in NEPAD, which is acronym for New Partnership For Africa Development.

    That is a body that is supposed to keep African leaders with vaulting ambitions in check by pressuring them to quit the stage as at when they are due to exit political office.

    But NEPAD has become complicit in the descent of Africa from being military dictatorship free, to one where democracy is fast dying as described by the pair of Steven Livitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, both of whom are professors in government at Harvard University,in their seminal 2018 tome titled: “How Democracies Die”.

    As the experts noted: “Democratic no longer ends with a bang-in a revolution or military coup-but with a whimper ..”

    Flipping the remark from democracy and replacing it with neo-colonialism from which Africa is currently choking,the end of the unbridled exploitation of Africa for her natural resources by Europeans in any guises ranging from slave trade to colonization to neo-colonialism and imperialism; the current new raft of coups may be signaling the true independence of Africa from neocolonialism.

    Although most of African countries were granted independence in the 1960s,some, especially francophone countries have remained tied to the apron strings of their colonialists who have continued to be their puppeteers in a sort of master-slave relationship.

    Given the current political landscape of Africa replete with coups and what l would like to term militicracy which is so complex that it has become as intricate as a maze and as puzzling as cracking the Davinci Code,which is tasking President Tinubu’s intellect; it would appear as if the African countries that are are still under the vice grip of European hegemonic powers are determined to reimagine and enforce their freedom from any act of oppression from strangers in their land that have been tele-guiding their pliable leaders and exploiting them.

    It now appears as if the emerging crop of leaders are not amenable to being the pipers that may be dictated to by who pays the pipers as the wise crack: ‘he who pays the piper dictates the tune’ suggests.

    The truth is that Africans appear poised to be the masters of their destiny.

    In my reckoning, what is happening via military coups is in the manner  that the Abolitionists started the push within the USA for the abolition of slave trade until the law was passed to that effect and the abolitionists started enforcing the end of slave trade.

    By the same token,the current wave of coups in Africa which are against the second wave of enslavement which is neocolonialism may finally end the reign of sit tight presidents that are still besetting the continent and the bane of nation building.

    It is instructive to note that before slavery finally ended,Denmark had outlawed slave trading by its citizens in 1803, Great Britain in 1807, the United States in 1808, Sweden in 1813,the Netherlands in 1814, and France (for the second time) in 1818.

    What the data above reveals is that France was the last amongst the industrialized countries of the world to give up slavery.

    So, it is unsurprising that France has once again been a laggard in letting go of its imperialistic tendencies by remaining a co- sovereign in the countries that it had purportedly granted independence.

    She is currently facing-off with the Niger Republic putschists that have given France,her former colonizer a quit notice to exit her soil without further delay.

    That most former French colonies are banding together to support Niger Republic’s rebellion is a telltale sign that full independence of Africa from France may be on the cusp of happening.

    One sure antidote for end of coups in Africa, in my considered opinion is eradication or reduction of poverty in Africa via fair trade from the industrialized and advanced society that have been fleecing the continent of her abundant natural resources without allowing them to earn commensurate rewards.

    When Africa’s 54 countries form an active common trade or political block, like African Union, just like the European Union, EU with 27 countries that speaks with one voice, then they would be enjoying the benefits of collective bargaining which has been eluding them.

    But even though Africa Union,AU exist , it has been literally so only on paper, which is why they have been getting the wrong end of the stick in terms of pricing their goods and services in the global market place. The truth is that the AU has been too laid back and therefore unable to make a good case for Africa, except it’s recent success of joining the G20 during the 63rd meeting in India.

    Although,other countries that were colonized by the Uk such as Canada , Australia, India which are first world countries today, are no longer under the yoke of unfair trade,why is Africa still under the spell ?

    Apparently,as lots of keen observers of African political development have pointed out,while the other countries besides Africans that were the colonies of the Uk and other colonizers adopted and adapted to the technological skills of their colonizer.

    That point is illustrated by the fact that India whose GDP was less than that of Nigeria in particular at a point in time,apart from the feat of recently landing a spacecraft in the moon,thus becoming the 4th country in the entire world, India currently boasts of producing most of the Chief Technology Officers, CTOs in major Fortune 500 firms.

    By comparison,Africans adopted the religion,language and the culture of their colonizers,even as they were impervious to adapting to their colonizer’s technological ingenuity.

    That explains why Africans are often more religious than the Pope or the bishop of Canterbury and are blind as a bat when it comes to technical innovations and the reason it continues to rely on other continents to feed her approximately 1.5 billion populace and it is tagged the dark continent.

    Indeed,it is incredulous that the African continent,which is very rich in natural resources is still susceptible to divide and rule tactics of their colonizers because it is not speaking with one voice.

    Although ,the Arab world and Asians amongst others have found their voices and dictate their terms of trade,Africa is still the weeping child of the world.
    Little wonder she has remained the epicenter of poverty and the hot bed for military putsches,’good’ or ‘bad’ ones as well as an incubator for terrorism.

    Clearly, the new leaders emerging on the scene such as President Bola Tinubu of Nigeria currently holding sway as ECOWAS chairman,must set his eyes on how to give the AU which is currently punching below its size,a shot in the arm to enable her start punching according to its size ,so that Africa would take its deserved strategic position in the comity of nations, globally.

    Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst ,author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.
    To continue with this conversation and more ,please visit www.magnum.ng

  • Tinubunomics: Electricity Act 2023 as Nigeria’s industrialization game changer – By Magnus Onyibe

    Tinubunomics: Electricity Act 2023 as Nigeria’s industrialization game changer – By Magnus Onyibe

    On the 4th of August,President Tinubu kicked off Gwagwalada Independent Power Plant, GIPP to be fired by gas and which will provide about 11% of Nigeria’s energy needs.

    The 1,350 megawatts plant which is being built in three phases is being executed with funding from the Nigerian oil/gas behemoth,Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd,NNPCL.

    The first phase that is expected to be completed in three (3) years would add three hundred and fifty (350) megawatts to Nigeria’s current electricity energy inventory.

    Along with two other plants in Kaduna and Kano,the GIPP is among the power projects planned along Nigeria’s 614-km (384-mile) AKK natural gas pipeline corridor, that would add 3600 megawatts to Nigeria’s generation capacity.

    At the ground breaking ceremony of the GIPP,an elated president Bola Ahmed Tinubu explained what he intends to accomplish with the gas powered plant which is coming on the heels of his assenting to the Electricity Act 2023 that is aimed at catalyzing Industrial Revolution in Nigeria.

    Although our country has 12,500 -13,000 megawatts capacity,she is only able to deliver to our factories,and homes a paltry 4000 to 6000 megawatts.
    That means that Nigeria has a major electricity transmission challenge which it must surmount,perhaps with a major review of the existing template that has fragmented the electricity power production and ownership into silos, consequently resulting in disintegrated rather than integrated service.

    And recognizing the fact that the electricity quantity that gets to our homes are abysmally low and do not scratch the surface of what is sufficient for a population in excess of 200 million seeking to be energy independent,President Tinubu justified the GIPP project in Abuja thus:

    “To accelerate our economic growth,we must remove every obstacle on our (way)to energy sufficiency.
    That this project is taking off so early in the life of our administration,it should serve as a notice to the residents of Abuja and indeed all Nigerians of our determination to bring positive change to this nation”.

    Before proceeding further,it is apposite that a bit of background information regarding the state of affairs in the electricity supply sub-sector in Nigeria before the advent of Electricity Act 2023, is shared for the benefit of those that are not familiar with it.

    In a bid to increase private sector participation in the electricity power sub-sector,Nigerian government had authorized the establishment of Independent Power Projects,IPP that were empowered to generate electricity and sell same in the sector. It was backed by the Electricity Power Reform Act 2005 and the regulatory authority is Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission,NERC.

    Earlier, under the watch of former president Olusegun Obasanjo in 2004,ten (10) power plants in Nigeria had been consolidated into one entity branded Nigeria Integrated Power Projects ,NIPP.
    And the Niger Delta Power Holding Company ltd ,NDPHC was subsequently set up and it became the vehicle with the mandate to manage the ten (10) NIPP assets.

    These are:(1) Geregu in Olorunsogo in Ogun state (2)Geregu ll in Kogi stat(3)Gbarain in Bayelsa state(4)Ihonor in Edo state(5)Alaoji in Abia stat(6)Omoku in Rivers state(7)Egbema in lmo state (8)Sapele in Delta state (9)Omotosho in Ondo state and (10) Calabar in Cross Rivers state.
    That is with respect to the generation of electricity,GenCos whose source of generating power is a mixture of hydro and gas.

    Along side the GenCos (11) Electricity Distribution Companies,DisCos were also licensed across the country in 2013 to distribute the electricity power generated to the last mile: factories,offices and homes nationwide.

    Of the 11 DisCos five (5) are currently under receivership because they have been declared distressed and therefore taken over by the line regulatory agency, NERC and the Bureau for Public Enterprises,BPE which is holding federal government’s equity in the firms after they were privatized in 2013. Only three (3) of the six(6) that are not under receivership are very solvent. These are Ikeja DisCo, Eko DisCo and Abuja DisCo.

    As we may recall, the DisCos are being operated in partnership with government that hived off some equity which got sold to the private investors operating as DisCos.
    BPE is charged with the responsibility of looking after governments interests in the DisCos.

    Unknown to most Nigerians,the electricity power sector is actually also being subsidized by government in the manner that pump price of petrol was being subsidized by the federal government.
    In the case of subsidy in electricity sub-sector, it is only to the tune of an estimated N1.3 trillion naira.
    Although the subsidy is far less than what is applied to bring down the price of petrol pump price , nevertheless electricity is still being subsidized.
    Is that not surprising?

    In any case, it is that subsidy that could have been removed via the proposed increase in electricity tariff that would have commenced in July, but which has been suspended till further notice owing to the temporary hardships wrought on Nigerian masses by petrol subsidy removal.

    Also , it is important to point out that paucity of funding has been an issue in the electricity sub-sector. It is not so much so with GenCos,but especially with DisCos . Hence most DisCos are indirectly owned by banks to whom they are highly leveraged or exposed to via hefty loan facilities.

    With respect to the GenCos, the Ughelli power plant acquired by Transcorp Power has broken-even, and therefore has been released from oversight by BPE.
    We will get back to that later.

    But first of all,let us put into an array the unfolding boost in electricity supply which has been triggered by the reforms in the sector following the passage of the Electricity Act 2023 by president Tinubu last June and which is part of the Tinubunomics package.

    One of the electricity Distribution Companies,DisCo, Eko Electricity Distribution Company, EKDC which is one of the five (5) that is not in distress,but doing well and under the chairmanship of Mr Oritsedere Otubu,covering Lagos Island and the environ; has moved swiftly to harness the opportunity immediately after signing into law of Electricity Act 2023 by President Tinubu.

    By leveraging first mover advantage,on Tuesday 11 July,which is barely one month after the inauguration of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu as president of Nigeria on May 29 ushering in Tinubunomics,EKEDC broke the ground for an embedded electricity generation facility of up to 30 megawatts capacity in partnership with lagos state government and Elektron Energy at the cost of $50m.

    According to the promoters of the lndependent Power Project branded Victoria Island Power Project Ltd,when completed and commissioned is envisaged to provide uninterrupted electricity power supply to its coverage area which is basically lagos and Victoria island and adjourning lkoyi and Lekki axis.

    With the space freed up for investments by entrepreneurs ,more participants would be engaging in the transmission aspect of which the federal government had retained monopoly.
    The private sector participants would remove the clog as transmission it has been the weakest point in the value chain.

    To get a good grasp of the sordid situation in the electricity subsector, let us keep in mind that until 2013, only the federal government was allowed by law to play in the sector.
    So, before the sub-sector was unbundled in 2005 with private investors given some equity and control of the power assets resulting in a slight boost in power supply, not even the 36 state governments were allowed to play in the sector.

    Even after the sub-sector was liberalized in 2005, it was still difficult for some players to participate in it as illustrated by the anecdote of an operator of an IPP in Lekki, Lagos state that got caught up in a web of regulatory entanglements arising from splitting investments into the sub-sector into three (3) silos or investment packages.

    The narrative is that the project had been set up as an embedded power plant to provide electricity for power an estate in the Lekki axis. It also had the lagos state government as an off-taker for the lighting up of the major streets from Victoria island to Lekki in Lagos.

    While the IPP was willing to off load its excess capacity into the Eko DisCo grid, it could not do so owing to regulatory bottle necks that had not been removed even after the 2005 and 2013 reforms.

    Evidently,due to the myriads of regulatory constraints that the framework threw up, potential electricity power that is highly needed in our homes , offices and factories have remained stranded.

    Hopefully,such systemic policy impediments in the electricity power sub-sector that had been constraining our country from experiencing the highly desired industrialization that would have enabled her transit from a developing to an emerging economy, have been addressed by the electricity Act 2023 have addressed.

    Apart from the reality that lack of access to foreign exchange,FX has been a major disincentive for major industrial concerns like Michelin, Proctor and Gamble , Berec Batteries and other consumer goods manufacturing firms to continue to operate in Nigeria , hence they have been relocating to neighboring countries like Ghana ,the lack of stable supply of electricity to power their plants has also been a major factor for their shutting down their operations in Nigeria.

    But with the Electricity Act 2023 in place, the businesses that had taken flight from
    Nigeria are expected to return to harness the benefits that the huge opportunity inherent in doing business in a country with a population in excess of two hundred million people, offers.

    Even local entrepreneurs are also positioning to take advantage of the Electricity Act 2023 which is an intrinsic part of Tinunomics.
    A billionaire,Mr Femi Otedola,who is the owner of Geregu Power, according to media reports is also already in talks with Lagos State government capitalizing on Private Public Partnership ,PPP investment model for the provision of electricity in lagos state which is the economic hub of Nigeria.

    Furthermore,as part of the ramping up of activities in the electricity power sector, facilitated by the Electricity Act 2023, the world bank president,Mr Ajay Banga had recently paid an official visit to Nigeria to support our country with expertise and knowledge gained by the bank from experience in many other markets.

    The world bank which has extended soft loan facilities and grants to private sector investors in the power plants (GenCos and DisCos),reckons that 85 million Nigerians lack access to electricity and the number would jump to 94 million by year 2030, if action is not taken to close up the gap.

    That perhaps justifies the World Bank chief’s plan “to assist in funding the construction of 1,000 mini solar power grids in partnership with Nigerian government and the private sector”

    The Bretton Woods institution has
    particularly been very active in Nigeria through its investments in rural electricity supply value chain by providing funding for the Rural Electricity Agency, REA which is a federal government agency that has the mandate to provide energy to grass root markets that may not be attractive to GenCos and DisCos.

    Following in the footsteps of EKEDC and the proposed initiative of Geregu Power geared towards harnessing the benefits inherent in the Electricity Act 2023, it was anticipated that other DisCos and Generating Companies,GenCos would also be doing their spade work preparatory to making further investments in their electricity generation and distribution ventures in Nigeria.

    That is because they have been major players by virtue of having taken major stakes in the sector following the privatization of some of the public utilities by the federal government from 2005 -2013.

    Therefore ,it was not surprising that Mr Tony Elumelu led Transcorp Group through a consortium of other investors has bought over 60% of Abuja Electricity Distribution Company,AEDC with the aim of boosting electricity energy in the federal capital territory, Abuja and environ.

    Prior to the signing into law of the Electricity Act 2023 that has triggered the current race to produce electricity independently,Dangote Refinery and Petrochemical company in Lekki Free Trade Zone in Lagos had become a proof of concept with its green field power generating facility having twelve thousand (12,00) megawatts capacity.

    Those familiar with the industry believe that Dangote power plant set up to power the mega industrial project has an output capacity of twelve thousand (12,000) megawatts that is just 500 megawatts lower than the (12,500-13,000) megawatts generation capacity of the entire country.

    Experts contend that half of that capacity is enough to power the industrial complex, with extra capacity left to cover significant parts of Ogun and Lagos states.
    But going by regulations surrounding the generation,transmission distribution, before the Electricity Act 2023,it would have been very difficult for Dangote group to avail Ogun and Lagos residents of the excess electricity power generated in their plant. The Electricity Act 2023 is poised to enable collaboration to happen in the Sub-sector between operators and even the possibilities of one- stop -shop with a single operator generating,transmitting and distributing to eliminate frictions currently plaguing the sub-sector.

    The above are some of the reasons that the Electricity Act 2023 is deemed as a game changer for industrialization and an elixir being driven by Tinubunomics as the new paradigm shift for governance in our beleaguered country.

    While,Dangote group constructed their 12,000 megawatts power plant to power their petrochemical industrial complex in Lekki, Lagos, an entrepreneur and educationist, Dr Adedeji Adeleke who is the owner and pro chancellor of Adeleke University, located in Ajebandele in Ondo state had also reportedly according online reports invested $2b in the establishment of a 1,250 megawatts plant.

    But the project was stalled due to vandalization and theft of critical components of the plant by the villagers that had been hired to protect the very expensive components of the plant.
    Dr Adeleke reportedly broke the news to the 9th set of students of the university in an address thus:
    “last month, we discovered that some of the turbines have been broken into, some of the components were yanked off in each of the turbines.These are heavy items that will require at least ten people to lift a single one. This means that somebody would have brought in a truck at night to carry those things away” Then stated that:
    “The project will be delayed for another year to get those things they looted back”.

    Now,although l have been able to independently fact check the claim,my take away from the narrative above and the reason that it is being cited is that Dr Adeleke’s effort represents another private sector initiative aimed at boosting electricity power supply since the sector was liberalized 2005/2013.

    So, clearly the desire to invest in boosting power supply is not the issue in Nigeria, but our peculiar challenge of insecurity has also created a major set back in addition to a complicated regulatory framework.

    Furthermore ,the point being made with the instances of private sector investments in the production of electricity cited above is that the appetite by the private sector for investments in the electricity power sub-sector has always been high as reflected by the plethora of potential and actual investors in the sub-sector.
    But private sector potentials had remained unharnessed due to lack of vision by past leaders that failed to envision the capacity of the private sector to turn around the ugly situation of epileptic power supply that had been hindering our country from developing socially and economically.

    Plainly speaking,the federal government has been the main culprit that had kept our country in perpetual darkness and probably the reason Africa as a whole is derogatorily referred to as a dark continent. That is simply because it has continued to centralize electricity power provision in the manner that centralization is entrenched in communist countries. The fixation had become entrenched,despite the fact that centralization is a governance template that has been discarded even in the epicenter of communism /socialism,China and Russia.

    Regarding private sector participation in electricity power production, it is worth underscoring the fact that if we add Dangote’s Lekki Lagos 12,000 megawatts to the work- in-progress Adeleke’s 1250 megawatts,the one inGwagwalada near Abuja which is 1,350 megawatts as well as Eko DisCo in Lagos Island that would be producing 30 megawatts, there would be a total of roughly 15,000 megawatts from green field plants available in Nigeria in a mere five years span of time.

    The truth is that from my finding,Nigeria would not have been having electricity power challenges that had hobbled the economy over the past number of years, if the sector had not been ringed fenced against private sector participants.

    That is because were it not for the restriction of investments in that sector to only the federal government which is a policy that has been in place since the formation of our country,there could have been many private sector players investing heavily in the sub-sector,as has been the case with banking, telecommunications and sundry sectors that opened up for the participation of local and foreign entrepreneurs. The situation ie even more appalling since it has long been established that the private sector is a more effective and efficient operator of public utilities.

    If the Geometric/Aba Power Plant promoted by Prof.Bath Nnaji,a world renown electricity expert in Abia state, in the south-east Nigeria currently providing steady electricity to the only indigenous automobile assembly plant Innosson Motors Ltd, and the Azura Edo Power Plant,a thermal power fired facility which is another private sector effort with a production capacity of 1,500 megawatts,(but currently producing 461 megawatts in the first phase) based in Benin city ,Edo State, south-south Nigeria also powering a cement factory in that zone, are thrown into the mix of the stock of electricity energy available in Nigeria ,then it would be clear that our country may be on the verge of overcoming the perennial electricity power supply shortages which had scuppered industrialization in Africa’s biggest economy.

    Although Azura Power Plant,floated through private capital from Actis-a United Kingdom,Uk based venture capital firm and an American institutional investor, has had it easy, Geometric Power, an indigenous venture has been in the making for nearly a decade owing to administrative bottlenecks and funding constraints before it eventually took off last year.

    Apart from the less than optimal operating framework, amongst the stumbling blocks on the path of independent electricity power producers in Nigeria,is the Transmission Company of Nigeria,TCN which is the sole electricity power transmission firm in Nigeria.

    That is because although about 13,000 megawatts is produced nationally, less than half is distributed to end users simply because of poor transmission infrastructure ,stemming from the fact that the private sector had been barred from participating in that aspect of the value chain. Otherwise the dilapidated infrastructure could have been replaced as has been the case with the power plants and are being revamped by the new private sector owners.

    It is disappointing that by the time that the generation and distribution aspects of the old Power Holding Company, PHCN were unbundled in 2013 via privatization,the federal government retained the transmission aspect of the public utility company.

    It is such half hearted and half measure approach to reforms of not totally freeing up the sector for private investors full participation,that has constrained the sector from blossoming in the manner that other services hitherto under the exclusive purview of government such as banking and telecommunications etc have witnessed a boom after being sold to entrepreneurs.

    That is why if you ask any investor in the electricity sector ,what has been their biggest stumbling block stopping them from rapid progress,they would all identify TCN as the main culprit for the slow pace in the evolution of the power sector.

    Arising from the above it is expected that the monopoly and clog in the wheel of progress in the electricity sub-sector posed by TCN has been eliminated by the Electricity Act 2023 that is a key enabler of Tinubunomics.

    Apart from the retrogressive policies that forbid private investors from generating electricity that has also prevented multiple potential investors from venturing into the business as evidenced by some housing estate owners who could have independently produced electricity to serve their needs and inject the excess into the national grid,a cursory look has revealed that the TCN remains the government agency that needs to be unbundles as it has been an obstacle as opposed to being an enabler for effective electricity power delivery in Nigeria.

    That is not surprising because more often that not,the personalities that manage Ministries, Departments,Agencies, MDAs in our country who are regulators acting on behalf of government had been wired to be a thorn in the flesh of private sector operators.
    That happens when government agencies adopt the attitude of us versus them,instead of the ideal approach of being partners in progress for the greater good of our country.
    That unproductive mindset of our public servants needs to be changed.

    To be fair , past governments had tried to address that dichotomy between public servants and private sector practitioners via Ease of Doing Business in Nigeria policy pursued by the immediate past administration under the vice president’s office. A measure of success was recorded but obviously a lot still needs to be done.

    And Geometric/Aba Power Plant is believed to have been the worst victim of TCN’s shenanigans garbed in bureaucracy.
    In several claims made in the public space,the operators of the plant have accused TCN of disconnecting her from the national grid,ostensibly for not meeting payment obligations arising from disruptions due to COVID-19 pandemic and insecurity in the eastern region without subjecting other operators to similar standards.

    That TCN is able to ride roughshod with other players is only possible due to its monopolistic role as the sole electricity transmission company.
    It is my hope that new investors would make forays into the transmission aspect of electricity power production,having been empowered by Electricity Act 2023 to so do.

    I am convinced that the concept of keeping the transmission aspect out of the privatization loop was ill advised and wrong headed. As such it needs to be revisited.
    So also is the policy of separating the three critical processes of producing electricity: generating,transmitting and distributing into distinctive entities,which is faulty and dysfunctional.

    As such,it would need to be rejigged for more effective and efficient service delivery through the reduction or avoidance of friction between GenCos and DisCos on one hand,then DisCos,GenCos and TCN on another hand,not to talk providers of embedded electricity services that are also having difficulties with GenCos and DisCos on another level.

    A situation whereby the three aspects of electricity power delivery are owned and operated by multiple companies handling different aspects ,has not augured well for the very critical electricity sub-sector that has the capacity to catalyze industrialization.

    My finding is that a single company can operate seamlessly in the entire value chain of services with ease and deliver more efficiently and effectively.
    And we have seen such a system operated in other climes.

    Even locally,the small operator of an embedded power plant in Lekki lagos for instance generates,transmits and distributes electricity to homes in estates covering about 25 miles in housing estates with ease. So,why can a single firm not serve a particular zone by operating all the value chain of generating, transmitting and distributing electricity power?

    The sub-sector is currently witnessing a flurry of activities via realignment of investments reflected by the fact that GenCos are cross-investing in DisCos as reflected by EKEDC investment in the establishment of an embedded power plant in partnership with Lagos state government in Lagos.
    Similarly, Transcorp power which is a GenCo operator is also leading a consortium of investors to acquire 60% of Abuja DisCo.

    With the competition that is ensuing in that space (a powerful attribute of private sector engagement in services hitherto monopolized by government) more value would be added in the electricity sector in the manner that value was added in the banking and telecommunications sectors, when private investors were allowed to play in the spaces.

    And the good news is that consumers would be the greatest beneficiary, if improved service delivery is achieved in the electricity sub-sector of our economy.

    Given the current shambolic state of affairs in the electricity power sector which has huge potentials as highlighted in this piece,the new minister, Mr Adedayo Adelabu that would be in charge of the ministry of power,has his job cut out for him . And it is to catalyze the latent productiveness that is highly needed in Nigerian economy for it to optimize the enormous potentials of our country.

    It is not rocket science to figure out that the electricity power sub-sector which is a critical component of Tinubunomics,if well organized would enable Nigeria be an economy that is open for business twenty four hours,seven days a week (24/7).

    That is a phenomenon that would make the Gross Domestic Product,GDP of Nigerian economy which is currently estimated to be roughly $440 million naira,leap to at least one billion dollars economy.

    The justification for the optimism expressed above is derived from the reality that the productivity of our country’s workforce which is currently stymied due to unreliable and unsteady public electricity power supply,would be doubled if owing to regular power supply for 24/7, businesses can operate both day and night.
    That is a situation which is currently impossible simply because businesses are shut down by 6pm and only get restarted by 6am the next day.

    It is in the context of the above positive outlook that Tinubunomics which is driven by Electricity Act 2023, promises to be a game changer for the much sought industrialization of Nigeria.

     

    Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur,public policy analyst ,author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.
    To continue with this conversation and more ,please visit www.magnum.ng

  • Would Nigeria take IMF loan to cushion petrol and Naira subsidy removal? – By Magnus Onyibe

    Would Nigeria take IMF loan to cushion petrol and Naira subsidy removal? – By Magnus Onyibe

    As I was in the process of releasing this piece into the mass media,the news broke that President Tinubu has on Wednesday 12 July ,put forward a request to the House of Representatives, HoR for five hundred (N500b) billion naira as extra funds for the provision of succor for the masses undergoing what Mr President referred to as pains similar to child birth pang experienced by women who are mothers.

    The sum which is to be specifically deployed in the provision of succor to the masses distressed due to the immediate consequences of the withdrawal of subsidies on both petrol and the naira policies being implemented by the incumbent administration.

    The funds is expected to be sourced from the 2022 supplementary appropriation act which has a provision of N819.5 billion naira for palliatives envisaged by the predecessor administration.

    It was quite a pleasant co-incidence to me because,a critical question that l had posed in the later part of this piece before the request for the approval for the allocation is: where would president Tinubu find the funds to provide the much needed cushion for his temporarily painful but ultimately economically revolutionarily positive policies?

    Having searched and not been able to identify other more viable alternatives in the horizon,my answer to the question is that taking the option of the International Monetary Funds,IMF loan may hold a better promise for our beleaguered country.

    That is because although Nigeria is currently distressed financially,it has the resources and potentials to thrive as a prosperous and successful country which are yet to be tapped or harnessed.

    But with the self imposed reforms-removal of petrol subsidy and removal of multiple exchange rates if the naira with foreign currencies which President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s government has voluntarily embarked upon in less than 45 days of being on the saddle of leadership,Nigeria is eminently qualified to seek and obtain the IMF loan.

    Having basically fulfilled all the loan conditionalities made by the IMF as far back as 1986 under the watch of then military president Gen.Ibrahim Babangida, IBB,through the sweeping reforms introduced by president Tinubu via his Tinubunomics initiative since 29 May this year, the question that comes to mind would be: is Nigeria taking the IMF loan ?

    Everyone knows that our country is in dire need of revenue, and its external debt burden that is hovering around fifty trillion (N50) naira added to its local debt that brings its indebtedness to an estimated N80 trillion has been acknowledged as unsustainable.

    And given the paucity of revenue inflow that has been compounded by an epidemic and pernicious crude oil theft (Nigeria’s main source of revenue) that has assumed an alarming dimension,the country may not have any other option than to go the way of its neighbor Ghana which recently sought and received three ($3b) billion dollars from the International Monetary Fund,IMF.

    The option of IMF loan recommends itself because it is becoming increasingly difficult for Nigeria to service her external debt due to the fact that the cost of servicing it practically consumes most of the revenue accruing into the coffers of the federal government to the extent that our country’s debt to equity ratio is in the negative territory and the world bank reckons that our debt servicing obligations matched against our national income is at about 96%.

    In fact,by some estimates in some quarters ,our debt payment obligations,all things remaining the same,would outstrip our revenue inflow in less than one year time.

    Consequently,in recent times there has been very little or nothing left to apply in providing infrastructure or even somethings as little as basic remedies or palliatives for the hardship triggered by the removal of subsidy on the pump price of petrol and multiple naira exchange rates in the last one month of president Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s sweeping economic reforms.

    For instance,the economy is in such a dire strait that it is the four hundred (N400m) that used to be pushed into the black hole otherwise known as petrol subsidy on a daily basis that is being targeted as the funds for the new administration to kick start the much anticipated palliatives to ameliorate the hardships currently being faced by Nigerian masses.

    It may be recalled that the outgone administration of President Mohammadu Buhari had programmed for petrol subsidy regime to be over at the of last June beyond which there was no financial provision in the 2023.

    And the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Ltd,NNPCL had claimed that the federal government was owing it a princely sum of N2.8 trillion naira after netting off the income from crude oil sales from the cost of petrol imports.

    That is despite the fact that N3.5 trillion provision was made in 2023 budget for petrol subsidy up till June which is just half of the year after N6 trillion was appropriated as subsidy for petrol in 2022.
    That brings subsidy in 30 months to a mind boggling N9.5 trillion which the HoRs is determined to investigate its disbursement.

    That is on top of Nigeria producing crude oil below the 1.8 million barrels a day quota from OPEC and its income from the sale of the commodity which constitutes about 79% of its foreign exchange earnings (gas is 11%) and as such earning a paltry income in the neighborhood of $5b which converted to maitama os Lewa than N30 trillion annually , (world bank estimated that about $5.6b would be saved owing to subsidy removal from petrol and naira) which is about half of the over $10 billion that it used to earn annually in not too distant past ,finding funds to sustain government would be like trying to squeeze water out of stone.

    And even the dollar proceeds hitherto applied in defending the naira by the Central Bank of Nigeria,CBN via weekly interventions in the foreign exchange market through the sale of dollars to a vast array of bureau de change outfits that were mainly owned by government officials and fronted for by surrogates located in popular hotels,airports and strategic street corners,the bonanza is not available anymore as NNPC ltd had been mandated to use the dollar income to import petrol into Nigeria and sell at subsidized rate,and which has been returning a net deficit for the federation.

    The weekly dollar bazaar which was done ostensibly to shore up the naira/ FX rate is no more available for the twin reasons of crude oil proceeds being exclusively managed by NNPCL that collects and uses the funds to import refined petroleum products into our country and which it subsidizes before it is retailed to motorists.

    And it is a largesse that has ended with
    President Tinubu’s bombshell decision pronouncement in his inauguration speech on 29 May: “Petrol subsidy is gone “.

    As observed earlier,NNPCL in the wake of the petrol subsidy removal had claimed that our country is owing it N2.8 trillion in payment areas for subsidizing pump price of petrol which it had been carrying out on behalf of the Federal Government of Nigeria,FGN.

    What the narrative above indicates is that our crude oil revenue was not even enough to support the cost of subsidizing petrol pump price because the FGN was still owing NNPCL N2.8 trillion.
    That explains why the FGN has been borrowing to pay civil servants emoluments and meet other governmental responsibilities.

    In the light of the grim fiscal and socioeconomic situations described above ,even as President Tinubu’s team that l have,for lack of a better nomenclature branded Tinubunomics evangelists are able to come up with strategies to ease the burden of galloping inflation taking a heavy toll on the masses, the initiatives would need to be cash backed.
    Whence cometh the funds,Nigerians would wonder?

    Definitely not the paltry $800m that the world bank offered Nigeria to help cushion the harsh effect of subsidy removal just before ex president Buhari’s tenure ended,neither is it the new $500m that has been offered to president Tinubu’s new regime by the world bank,perhaps as a demonstration of its support for the far reaching reforms so far introduced.

    Clearly ,both world bank funds to be availed or already disbursed to Nigeria,even when combined are inadequate as they would not even scratch the surface of our country’s need.
    So,an IMF loan beckons.

    Although,President Tinubu appear to have answered the question: when cometh the funds, clearly,N500 billion can only be a stop gap measure in light of the urgency required to do something to ease the pain on the masses sooner than later.

    The request for the funds is all the more very much needed to bridge the gap as the process of obtaining the IMF loan,can be relatively long.

    Strikingly,Nigeria had attempted to take the IMF loan under the watch of former military president,Gen Ibrahim Babangida who incidentally had toppled then head of state,Gen.Mohammadu Buhari.

    And the country was under a similar yoke because the Nigerian economy was at that time literally comatose following about two years of draconian policies of then head of state Gen.Buhari wherein essential commodities such as rice,sugar, milk etc were so scarce that an agency known as Nigerian National Supply Company Ltd,NNSL was set up to purchase and ration the items to Nigerians under very stressful atmosphere reminiscent of the situation in iron clad countries like Republic of North Korea.

    In my column of June 27 titled: “A Comparative Analysis Of Tinubunomics Reforms And I.M.F Conditionalities For Loan”, and also wifely published in traditional and online media platforms,l reflected on issues pertaining to our country’s contemplation on taking the IMF loan nearly forty (40) years ago,before it settled for a home grown Structural Adjustments Program, SAP, which it mismanaged with disastrous consequences.

    To put things in perspective,below is a snippet: “As it may be recalled,Nigeria had also suffered the dilemma of financial insolvency in the mid 1980s (during the regime of Gen Ibrahim Babangida,IBB (1985-1993) similar to the situation currently being faced by Ghana which just took the IMF loan .

    “That was what prompted the country to seek a bailout loan from the l.M.F and some reforms were demanded as pre conditions for granting the loan.

    “Some of the conditionalities were very stringent and they were such that the nation balked at taking the loan facility.

    “New York Times reporter , Edward A. Gargan, in his article titled : “ Nigerian Leader Wary On I.M.F Loan” published on October 8, 1985, which is nearly 38 years ago so stated the following about Nigeria and the I.M.F loan:
    “As a condition for granting the loan,the I.M.F. has called for Nigeria to devalue its currency, the naira, and end the practice of subsidizing petroleum products for consumers. At the official rate of exchange, the naira is equivalent to $1.08, but on the black market here in Lagos money changers are selling nairas for as much as four to the dollar.

    “Smuggling Is Rampant.
    The tremendous disparity between the official and unofficial exchange rate has led to rampant smuggling and has sharply curtailed Nigeria’s ability to sell manufactured goods abroad”, he noted.
    “Moreover, gasoline in Nigeria remains the cheapest in Africa – less than $1 a gallon at the official rate and about 25 cents a gallon at black market rates. Today, General Babangida refused to say whether oil subsidies would be lifted, and virtually ruled out any sharp devaluation of the nation’s currency.”, the reporter concluded.

    “Is it not stunning that the damning socioeconomic atmosphere currently prevailing in Nigeria is exactly the situation that was existing nearly four decades ago and for which the l.M.F demanded that Nigerian leaders should make some tough decisions to reform as a critical pre condition for granting her a bailout loan under the watch of military president Gen. lbrahim Babangida?”, l had observed .

    The reality is that it is not only gut wrenching that as a nation,we have remained on the same path of ‘Debt Avenue’ and seeking a bailout nearly forty (40) years after lBB considered it following the ouster of then Gen. Mohammadu Buhari as head of state via a palace coup detat in 1985,but it is equally damning and pathetic that today, an IMF rescue may be contemplated once again after the reign of President Buhari who was elected president in 2015 and he succeeded in bringing Nigerian economy to its knees and thus earned the country the unenviable reputation of being the world’s poverty capital which he has handed over to President Tinubu on 29 May .

    Although ,this feeling is without concrete evidence,but one gets the sense that it may be as a precursor to seeking the lMF loan that President Tinubu has been rolling out revolutionizing economic reform policies tagged Tinubunomics that is unshackling our country and making it investment friendly.

    By the way,there is currently an equivalent of Tinubunomics in the United States of America,USA known as Bidenomics which as the name indicates encapsulates president Joe Biden’s economic policies including the ground breaking infrastructure act that has reflated the economy and boosted employment amongst others through the ongoing massive infrastructure refurbishment in the USA.

    As evidence ,the Consumer Price Index, CPI in the world’s largest and wealthiest economy has dropped from 9.1 points to 3 from June last year to June this year.
    And the drop in inflation by six (6) points between 2022 and June 2023 is owed to the Infrastructure Investments Act or Jobs Act which saw a humongous sum of $1.2 trillion being appropriated for investment in infrastructure.

    The the monumental investment dubbed once-in-a-generation stake in infrastructure is encapsulated in Bidenomics driven by the Build Back Better Agenda of president Biden.

    And if Bidenomics has worked in the USA as is currently evident,there is every good reason to believe that its equivalent Tinubunomics would equally have a positive outcome in Nigeria if diligently pursued.

    In Nigeria Tinubunomics policies range from the repeal of burdensome and archaic economic policies that had shackled our country thus putting long suffering Nigerians literarily in economic manacles via the erstwhile funds guzzling petrol subsidy,operation of multiple naira exchange rate with dollar which is another type of subsidy and the subsidy on electricity production and distribution arising from the fact that the activity was on the Exclusive List,meaning that hitherto ,only the federal government could provide electricity service.

    It is situation which the signing into law of Electricity Act 2023 by President Tinubu has changed for the better basically because the policy has thrown open the investment space in electricity services to the private sector for participation.

    Apart from the earlier referenced Electricity Act 2023 and the Freedom of Data Act that would unleash the potentials of information technology which has been elevated to the level of Artificial Intelligence,AI being leveraged in the advanced society to enhance all spheres of life,there is also the passage of four (4) Executive Orders that have reversed some anti business laws such as new tariffs on vehicles imported into Nigeria and 5% Value Added Tax,VAT on telecoms services as well as similar sundry taxes that were stifling businesses.

    It may be recalled that the aforementioned laws that are unfriendly to business had gotten hastily passed by the immediate past regime before its exit on 29 May.

    The four (4) executive orders that are business friendly appear to be in response to the organized private sector which has cried out to President Tinubu for forbearance.

    And as if it to cap the myriads of policy decisions that has so far been taken by President Tinubu aimed at pulling our country out of the abyss of debt and the hole of despondency into which more citizens of our country numbering up to 130 million of 200 million have descended, the president has also set up a tax advisory council with PwC team lead for West Africa ,Taiwo Oyedele as chairman.

    The mandate of the council comprising of other eminent tax experts is to seek ways and means of optimally harnessing in win-win manner the untapped tax resources in our country presently not captured by the existing system.That is with a view to enabling the administration carry out the onerous task of pulling out our country from the economic doldrums in which it is currently wallowing as a consequence of eight (8) years of monumental sociopolitical and economic mismanagement by the predecessor government.

    It is a consequence of the unmitigated disastrous socioeconomic and political leadership of our country by the outgone regime that Nigerian masses are being characterized as multi dimensionally poor people.

    It is even as an additional four million,one hundred thousand (4.1m) are adjudged by the world bank as having joined the ranks of the indigent,since the withdrawal of subsidies on petrol and the naira exchange rate unification on 29 May when President Tinubu mounted the throne of leadership in Aso Rock Villa .

    With the threat of an additional seven million (7m) joining in the inglorious poverty club,which is a figure that the world bank is projecting would likely be the aftermath of the removal of subsidies on petrol and naira by this year end,if palliatives are not rolled out to cushion the harsh effects of the policies aimed at preventing our country from falling into a looming debt trap,it is not an understatement to emphasize that there is an urgent need to make haste in providing buffers.

    That is probably what justifies and is driving the request for N500 billion from the supplementary appropriation act 2022 currently before HoRs, but which the Nigerian Labor Congress, NLC is kicking against because it believes it is inadequate to support the 300% salary increase that it is demanding.

    After breaking the somewhat forty (40) years jinx of operating an economy that has been bearing the debilitating burden of petrol and naira subsidy which the multilateral and international financial institutions,World Bank,IMF and even investment bank JP Morgan as well as other multilateral financial organizations have been demanding that Nigeria should remove to free up the economy via major policy reforms as far back as president Buhari’s first coming as military dictator (1984-85),it would not surprise me if the aforementioned global financial agencies are already wooing Nigeria with loan offers.

    That would be more so because the ongoing reforms have been voluntary as opposed to being imposed.
    That being the case ,despite Nigeria’s estimated N50 trillion external loan exposure,she may be able to obtain international loans on favorable terms simply because the country with its humongous potentials(population in excess of 200m and the largest in Africa) with a significant and reasonable purchasing power as well as virile middle class comprising of 60% youth demographics that are very creative, Nigeria is currently the toast of the investors globe wide.

    But given the horrendous and frightening size of our current debt profile,a significant,if not broad a spectrum of Nigerians may kick against the idea of obtaining more loan.
    But to dig the economy out of the hole in which it is currently stuck, would require more funds.

    And being that the debt servicing that watchers of our economy (world bank etc had warned about a year ago would outstrip our income) if adequate care was not taken to cut down on our expenditure costs and boost revenue inflow by plugging crude oil leakages to oil thieves, an admonition that was unheeded and has become a reality today,hence the future of our country is currently in jeopardy.

    According to statistics from the National Bureau for Statistics,NBS,the total exports from Nigeria for 2022 rose by 41.72 per cent from N18.91 trillion in 2021 to N26.79 trillion as of 2022. But imports rose by 22.77 per cent from N20.84 trillion in 2021 to N25.59 trillion in 2022.

    When the value of Nigeria’s total export last year which is N26.79 trillion is basically equal to the import value of N25.59 trillion in the same 2022. That simply implies that our country’s export and import almost netted off each other last year.

    When the debt servicing obligation of Nigeria is added,and which the Debt Management Office,DMO puts at N3.36 trillion in 2023, where would this administration find the money to undertake the under-listed huge investments that would facilitate a more people friendly transition from petrol subsidy removal and naira exchange rate unification?

    Although ,the administration is yet to disclose its plans, l would like to hazard a guess that the immediate needs for investment to soften the effects of the policy reforms would likely be: procurement of mass transit buses powered by Compressed Natural Gas,CNG, provision of one hundred percent (100%) salary increase to public servants and offer some tax breaks to businesses to enable the extension of similar 100% salary raise for workers in that sector,as well as avail loan to indigent tertiary institutions students as enunciated in the Students Loan Act.

    The above listed proposals are some of the lofty measures that are likely to be
    undertaken by the administration as a panacea to the inclement fall outs of the socioeconomic reforms so far rolled out by president Tinubu.
    The introduction of the palliatives would enable the reforms come into fruition or materialize without too much collateral damage on the masses.

    As if there was a synergy of thoughts and meeting of minds of sorts, government has put put forward the request to HoRs for it’s approval for the executive branch to apply N500 billion in the 2022 supplementary appropriation act in mitigating the harsh effect of its reforms,and it is currently receiving the attention of the legislators.

    The NLC dissatisfaction with the sun of N500 billion requested,suggests to me that it may be a bridging gap as more funds , probably from the I.M.F may be sourced.

    Whatever the case may be,the undeniable reality is that this country right now looks like a firm or business corporation which has just been taken over from a very bad manager and needs working capital to put it back on even keel.

    In my reckoning,to make Nigeria work again,it needs working capital,and as financial experts very well know,borrowing from the money or capital markets is obviously more expensive than borrowing from a multilateral agency like the IMF, world bank etc.

    The snag may be that our country’s previous experience with lMF might have left an unsavory taste in the mouths of Nigerians.But there is a difference between 1986 and 2023 which is that the IMF would not be imposing any harsh conditionalities on Nigeria because the country has already voluntarily swallowed the bitter pills.

    Should president Tinubu decide to pursue the option of IMF loan ,Nigerians would acquiesce with it as long as they would be assured by Tinubunomics champions that the funds would be invested in production -infrastructure etc activities as opposed to consumption items-salary payments ,which has been the pattern in the past eight (8) years.

    And the demand by the NLC for more funds to be appropriated for palliatives underscore the belief that lMF loan may be the most viable option at this point in time.

     

    Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Los Angeles, California,USA.
    To continue with this conversation,please visit www.magnum.ng

  • A comparative analysis of Tinubunomics reforms and IMF conditionalities for loan – By Magnus Onyibe

    A comparative analysis of Tinubunomics reforms and IMF conditionalities for loan – By Magnus Onyibe

    It would not be baseless or without justification ,if one makes the assertion

    that there is nobody in Nigeria that did not experience Tinubumania during the presidential campaign period in the last quarter of last year and first quarter of this year.

    That is because marketing of Tinubu’s candidacy was so intense with a sort of in-your-face type of aggression that was bolstered and galvanized by the ‘Emi Lo Kan’ mantra that became a national sing song of sorts.

    It is in a similar manner that Tinubumania dominated the political atmosphere,that literally everyone in Nigeria is currently feeling the impact of Tinubunomics,since president Bola Ahmed Tinubu was handed the reins of political leadership of our great country on 29 May,having won the 2023 presidential contest.

    Without any shred of doubt whatsoever, Tinubunomics is a bug that has bitten practically everyone in Nigeria.

    And it has done so in less than one month of president Tinubu being at the helm of affairs in the management of our beloved country,Nigeria.

    Off course bugs vary and they have different types of effect on humans.

    There are people who are bitten by education bug.That means they passionately pursue the vision or dream of being educated perhaps to the highest level which is obtaining a doctoral degree.

    There are also those who get bitten by the type of bug that can result in feverish conditions.

    Take mosquito bites for instance.

    Victims can become sick and even die from malaria infection which is a direct consequence of a bite from the mosquito bug.

    In the case of Tinubunomics,it is a bug that has obviously created some distress and excitement alike amongst a broad spectrum of people in Nigerian society.

    For those that had been bilking our country of billions of dollars through petrol subsidy, and bleeding our treasury of billions of dollars through multiple exchange rates of the naira,Tinubunomics has had a negative effect.

    But to the poor masses that the end of petrol subsidy regime would enable government apply the billlions of dollars that would have gone down the drain pipe via Premium Motor Spirit,PMS subsidy ,they are happy because government can apply the erstwhile petrol subsidy funds for the provision of health care facilities , roads and schools infrastructure ,as well as grant loans to indigent students in higher educational  institutions that could have dropped out of universities, polytechnics and mono-technics, owing to incapacity to pay school fees.

    Clearly,Tinubunomics is a type of elixir or uhuru for the category of Nigerians referenced above.

    And the described foregoing realities are the reason that the removal of subsidy on petrol which is a defining factor in Tinubunomics has for instance created a huge buzz nationwide since petrol affects literally all aspects of life in Nigeria.

    Of course ,the youth demographics is affected positively by Tinubunomics via the signing into law of the student loan policy that would help in easing the burden of some indigent students who had not been able to afford school fees which had been a  compelling factor for them to drop out.

    To the credit of Tinubunomics,going forward,the loss of such students imbued with high intellect, otherwise known as ‘hot brains’ to the underworld,which is not different from the brain drain that we often complain about,would no longer happen because every Nigerian would have the opportunity to acquire education with loan from government.

    In fact,if we get every Nigerian interested in acquiring higher education into schools via the newly enacted law authorizing  loan for the indigent to pursue higher education ,our country would produce enough skilled human capital for retention  to work at home to help the economy grow and there be a large number still available for deployment into the diaspora to boost foreign remittances into our economy.

    China is the fastest growing economy in the world today because it has the largest collection or pool of talents per square meter than any other country in the world. That is why the country is on the cutting edge of technology.

    To phantom the benefits of having a huge pool of skilled Human capital resources to execute projects speedily, effectively ,and efficiently, as a local reference point, readers should consider the speed with which China built the Lekki Deep sea port in lagos in a record time.

    It is its huge collection of skilled manpower through massive education of the populace that has made China the foremost manufacturing hub of the world.

    As l have noted in multiple interventions promoting student loan as the pathway to a greater future for Nigeria, l also always cited the case of Indians at a point in time,being CEOs/CTOs of the first ten(10) Fortunate 500 companies in the world owing Indian government’s policy of prioritizing education.

    So the new higher education loan driven by Tinubunomics would help ensure that nobody is left behind,education-wise in Nigeria and by virtue of having the largest population in Africa, our country can become the biggest manufacturing hub on the continent if we develop the required skilled manpower.

    The same Tinubunomics has also elicited some anxiety and triggered a feeling of misery amongst the working class whom the removal of petrol subsidy have impacted negatively.

    That is because the cost of transportation and in deed all life essentials have spiked dramatically resulting in hardships on the masses in the short term.

    Being not unmindful of the consequences of petrol subsidy removal on the masses ,the architects of Tinubunomics have been assiduously working round the clock to provide succor or buffer for the vulnerable or the more exposed to the inflationary consequences of petrol subsidy removal implementation.

    To that extent,we know that the purveyors of Tinubunomics have been contemplating introducing measures such as salary increase for workers to cushion the harsh effects.

    Obviously Tinubunomics doctrine demands a paradigm shift in the ways and manner policies evolve and get implemented, so it would no longer be business as usual in Nigeria .

    That is perhaps why it is taking a little while for solutions to the challenges that the paradigm shift has thrown up to be hashed  out.

    As part of the multiple palliative measures being considered,one hundred percent (100%) wage increase is a policy direction that is being touted.

    And it is a policy that l whole heartedly support. It’s attractiveness to me is the fact that it is the opposite of the previous gambits of deploying buses for workers through the Nigeria Labor Congress,NLC or warehousing the funds from the so called savings and putting it in a common ‘Pot’ such as SURE- P from where some appointed or  ‘anointed’ individuals would, in the guise of administering the funds for public good, be lining their private pockets with the common wealth of Nigerian masses.

    Arising from the sordid past experience of abuse of public funds by public officials as reflected by what happened to public intervention funds like Petroleum Trust Fund,PTF, Oil Mineral Producing Development Commission, OPADEC ,Niger Delta Development Commission,NNDC ,it is a no brainer to figure out that the pooling together of the so called funds to be saved from the current petrol subsidy removal exercise for management on behalf of the public,would eventually end up literally becoming another black hole/drain pipe in the nation’s treasury which PMS subsidy payment had been and which it’s removal is aimed at eliminating.

    Why plug one hole and puncture another thus retaining the drain but in another form?

    So why don’t government give the funds directly to workers via 100% salary increase in the first instance. At least that way, they  can decide by themselves what their priorities are and apply the funds accordingly. Of course there are valid fears of inflation.But that is a smaller monster that can be tamed with targeted monetary policies that would moderate inflation.

    In effect establishing a pool of funds from where subsidy removal savings would be disbursed to the masses amounts to setting up a parallel government to be run by the same Nigerians with the same mentality (not saints from heaven) who would not create the type of choke holds that similar institutions have created in the past and some of which have been threatening to asphyxiate our beloved country.

    Of course palliatives in the form of mass transit buses , ferries or other modes of transportation and logistics are currently highly needed, but they have to be provided by the private sector who may be offered loans to fund the initiative , simply because government has no business in business.

    Without any doubt,pooling funds together for disbursement to ameliorate the hardship on the masses would not be different from the petrol subsidy regime which we have been trying to wean ourselves-off of in the past several decades.

    Even going as far back as to the dark days of military rule under the watch of Generals Mohammadu Buhari,Ibrahim Babangida and Sani Abacha.

    Incidentally,then Gen. Mohammadu Buhari,who later metamorphosed into president Buhari (2015-2023) was the chairman of Petrol Trust Fund, PTF – a behemoth created out of petrol subsidy removal by Gen. Abacha. The record of that agency which became a metaphor for corruption of the highest order is still fresh in the memory of Nigerians

    At this juncture,it is germane to elaborate further on Tinubunomics which is a combination of the multiple policies that have been introduced by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in less than one month of being at the helm of affairs of our country. In fact it is a governance philosophy which is undergirded by the principle of doing things differently and it is a leadership phenomenon that has had a spectacular effect on Nigeria and Nigerians with reverberations across the world.

    The impact of President Tinubu taking charge in Aso Rock Villa range from the stunning decisions ending the roughy five (5) decades old petrol subsidy regime that has been consuming precious financial resources of our country akin to money being thrown down the drain instead of being used for interventions in more productive and critical areas such as education, healthcare, roads ,ports; to the signing into law of a new electricity act that would make generation and distribution of electricity energy open to all willing and able investors.

    It is a policy that would eventually lead to the much sought industrialization of Nigeria which is a development aspiration that perennial epileptic power supply had been inhibiting.

    Tinubunomics has also led to the signing into law of the bill ,(as stated earlier) that  would facilitate the offer of loans to indigent students in higher institutions and which would lead to the expansion of the pool of talents in our country because no longer would anyone willing to obtain higher education be left out of the education loop owing to lack of financial capacity,not lack academic ability.

    That is because as a result of the policy of granting indigent students loan,the potential Albert Einsteins (the geniuses) that had become street urchins ,kidnappers,motor park touts,rapists,prostitutes and religious insurgents wreaking havoc on children,women and men in our country because they dropped out of school due to lack of funds to pay their school fees by their parents who are poor , would join the talent pool and enhance the quality of the workforce in our country and around the world.

    Thanks to Tinubunomics engendered policies, if they are pursued to their logical conclusions and hopefully they would because president Tinubu appears to be determined to make a difference in political leadership because he has stated unequivocally that he is prepared for it : our country would no longer allow such great talents to be wasted, because with the access to higher education by the indigent law operationalized ,all Nigerians would have the opportunity to become the genuses that God had created them to be,but which poverty had been denying some of them from becoming.

    An additional aspect of the Tinubunomics reform initiative and revolution is the signing of the freedom of data bill signed into law by president Tinubu. It is also bound to energize the information technology and digital sector of the Nigerian economy that had remained latent with potentials. With the implementation of the new law, that  largely untapped sector of our economy that holds humongous opportunities for our army of youths would be unleashed such that it would become a higher contributor to the Gross Domestic Product, GDP of the nation’s economy.

    Already the Tinubunomics triggered  initiative is bringing to the table the interest in Nigeria by major players in information and communication technology stretching to the the spheres of Artificial Intelligence,Al which is currently making the waves around the industrially developed world.

    And as if in response to the introduction of the law  Mr Bill Gates,the modern day father of computing and information technology has just visited Nigeria again to reaffirm his validation of the potentials of Nigerian youths to becoming a powerful factor in the world of information technology as he had posited during his first visit in 2018.

    Another significant effect of Tinubunomics is the triggering of the end of multiple naira /foreign exchange rates regime that had kept Foreign Exchange,FX in the hands of rent seekers who buy at reduced price from the Central Bank of Nigeria ,CBN only to resell to actual industrialists that need it at sometimes up to 50% percent margin.

    The process known as arbitrage has been wrecking havoc on our economy by draining our treasury of hard earned FX  that should have been applied in the productive sector of the economy such as provision of health care, education, housing and other essential infrastructure that would serve the best interest of the masses.

    But owing to a policy of multiple exchange rates of the naira,the rent seekers who are the powerful and privileged persons in the corridors of political power have been  fleecing our economy by doing nothing but round tripping.

    It is an unconscionable activity and an unsustainable policy that a former CBN governor and ex-Emir of Kano,Sanusi Lamido Sanusi has been decrying.

    Arising from that wrong headed policy (now scrapped in the wake of Tinubunomics) instead of Nigeria being a productive economy, it has been a high consumption one.

    But with the end of the parasitic multiple naira exchange rate that is aimed at ending arbitrage,hopefully industries that fled from our country owing to lack of FX  to procure needed materials to produce goods would return with the associated benefits of employment creation and payment of tax to government.

    Clearly, the policy reforms in the monetary and financial services system would definitely release the bureaucratic chokehold on the growth of the economy that has been inhibiting the flourishing of our country and instead earned her the unenviable reputation of being the poverty capital of the world.

    And it is being envisaged that the collective positive impact of the multiplicity of the aforementioned policy reforms in the economy would be similar, in particular to the revolution that happened in the telecommunications space after it was opened up to private investors under the watch of ex president Olusegun Obasanjo, 1999-2007.

    It may be recalled that it is the liberalization/privatization policy that triggered the founding of GLO-an indigenous telecommunications services provider owned by Chief Mike Adenuga ,and international conglomerates-MTN,Airtel and 9Mobile as well as other micro telecommunications services providers like Smile telecom owned by another indigenous entrepreneur, Ernest Obijiesi of NestOil.

    It is trite to state that it is as a result of the liberalization of telecoms sector that it is today a major contributor to the GDP and Gross National Product,GNP of our country through provision of employment for the hitherto unemployed and payment of taxes.

    Generally,the impact of Tinubunomics which are legion are not only being driven by assent  of bills into acts of law as evidenced by the significant number of acts of parliament that president Tinubu has appended his signature such as the electricity act 2023 and access to higher education act as well as the the freedom of data bill ,it is also being done by sublime measures such as the spoken policy directions components of the new administration’s Tinubunomics doctrine.

    These are reflected by the current monetary policy directions of the collapse into one the multiple naira exchange rates since the ascendancy of Tinubunomics angels or for lack of a better nomenclature,ambassadors that are currently ten(10) in number, excluding the Chief of Staff to the president,CoS Hon.Femi Gbajabiamila and Secretary to the Federal Government of Nigeria,SFGN Senator George Akume,not forgetting vice president Kashim Shettima and Deputy Chief of Staff, Hassan Hadeija.

    All of the above catalogued policy initiatives, (some of which are already being operationalized) and being driven by aforementioned personalities are bringing about sweeping changes which are sounding like swan songs to both local and international investors as well as  partner countries.

    It is the totality of the above measures so far taken under President Tinubu’s watch that l have branded Tinubunomics.

    As evidence of the reverberating impart of Tinubunomics across Nigeria and indeed the world, an international validation was recently given during a visit to vice President kashim Shettima in Aso Rock Villa, by British High Commissioner,Mr Richard Montgomery who acknowledged and commended President Tinubu’s administration for introducing positive policies such as petrol subsidy removal and unification of the multiple exchange rates of the naira.

    I am being very effusive about the policy decisions so far made by President Tinubu because they are in tandem with what l have been advocating in numerous media Interventions in nearly three (3) decades of my engagement of public intellectualism.

    And one of the key factors for the enthusiasm in local and international investors community about the gale of reforms being unfurled by the new administration is that somehow,Tinubunomics equates the I.M. F type of reform conditionalities without the loan.

    To put the unfolding sociopolitical and economic situation in context,it is necessary that a comparison is made between the reforms that president Tinubu has introduced and the demands usually made by the International Monetary Funds,I.M.F when countries seek bail out funds from the Breton woods institutions including the world bank.

    Is it not amazing that , (at least for now)Nigeria is not seeking for an  I.M.F loan,yet it is imposing fiscal discipline on itself as if it is seeking for a loan.

    The recent experience of our neighboring country Ghana that just received three billion dollars ($3b) from the I.M.F based on agreement on some economic policies reforms in Ghana is instructive.

    We are reminded by Ghanaian experience of how the  imposition of policies as pre-conditions for financial bailout can be demoralizing and dehumanizing.

    As some of us may be aware, the I.M.F loan to Ghana is supported by a new three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) of about US$3 billion with stiff conditionalities which are like bitter pills that Ghana must swallow in order to survive the financial headwinds that it is facing.

    Although the loan would induce hardship for Ghanaians ,it is deemed as necessary by the government of President Nana Dankwa Akufo-Ado as it is envisioned as a saving grace to our neighbor in west Africa that recently fell into hard times and which has had a contagion effect on the balance sheets of Nigerian banks operating in that country that had to take some ‘hair cuts’ as the losses of their subsidiaries negatively have affected their  over all performance at home in Nigeria.

    As it may be recalled,Nigeria had also suffered the dilemma of financial insolvency in the mid 1980s during the regime of Gen Ibrahim Babangida,IBB (1985-1993) similar to the situation currently being faced by Ghana.

    That was what prompted the country to seek a bailout loan from the l.M.F and some reforms were demanded as pre conditions for granting the loan.

    Some of the conditionalities were very stringent and they were such that the nation balked at taking the loan facility.

    New York Times reporter , Edward A. Gargan, in his article titled : “ Nigerian Leader Wary On I.M.F  Loan” published on October 8, 1985, which is nearly 38 years ago so stated the following about Nigeria and the I.M.F loan:

    “As a condition for granting the loan,the I.M.F. has called for Nigeria to devalue its currency, the naira, and end the practice of subsidizing petroleum products for consumers. At the official rate of exchange, the naira is equivalent to $1.08, but on the black market here in Lagos money changers are selling nairas for as much as four to the dollar.

    “Smuggling Is Rampant.

    The tremendous disparity between the official and unofficial exchange rate has led to rampant smuggling and has sharply curtailed Nigeria’s ability to sell manufactured goods abroad”, he noted.

    “Moreover, gasoline in Nigeria remains the cheapest in Africa – less than $1 a gallon at the official rate and about 25 cents a gallon at black market rates. Today, General Babangida refused to say whether oil subsidies would be lifted, and virtually ruled out any sharp devaluation of the nation’s currency.”, the reporter concluded.

    Is it not stunning that it is exactly the situation that was existing in Nigeria nearly four decades ago and for which the l.M.F demanded that Nigerian leaders should make some tough decisions to reform as a critical pre condition for granting her a bailout loan under the watch of military president Gen. lbrahim Babangida?

    Clearly, it is a crying shame that the absurd situation had persisted for several decades until president Tinubu summoned the courage to end petrol subsidy on 29 May?

    Prior to President Tinubu’s bold action,none of Nigeria’s leaders had been able to figuratively swallow the bitter pills of petrol subsidy removal in order for the nation to regain its compromised financial health.

    The roll call of Nigerian military heads of state and presidents that could not muster the courage remove petrol subsidy go all the way from the regime of Gen.Mohammadu Buhari, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida ,IBB to Gen. Sani Abacha.

    It is striking that it is the seemingly insurmountable task that could have helped to leap-frog Nigerian economy from a consumption to a production  centric one several decades ago,that president Tinubu carried out with his unscripted pronouncement:  “petrol subsidy has ended” in his inaugural day speech on 29 May thus heralding the removal of petrol subsidy.

    In tune with the massive reform agenda of Tinubunomics, the implementation of the policy of unifying the multiple naira exchange rates into one has also subsequently happened.Thus the hemorrhaging of our country’s foreign exchange treasury hitherto used in propping up the naira to the selfish benefits of a few individuals in Aso Rock Villa corridors of power has also ended like petrol subsidy.

    Arising from the actions referenced above, President Tinubu has literally killed the two werewolf- like monsters sucking the blood of Nigeria which are: gfpayment of petrol subsidy and operation of multiple platforms and rates for exchanging the naira that had been gulping billions of dollars earned from the sale of crude oil and gas.

    Going down memory lane,it may be recalled that,instead of taking the I.M.F loan in 1985/86 the administration under the leadership of IBB ,after an exhausting public debate about the desirability or otherwise of the loan under the conditionalities and terms proposed by the I.M.F,opted out and settled for a home grown alternative-Structural Adjustment Program ,SAP which is self imposed tough reform policies.

    Basically,SAP was about belt tightening by way of plugging all the identified leakages in the economy which had been making it impossible to grow from third to first would like her former peer country at independence, the island nation,Singapore under the iconic leader Lee Kuan-Yew.

    Unfortunately, the implementation of S.A.P was not diligent as it was haphazard and inconsistent hence it failed to achieve its lofty objectives.

    Hence,today most of the prevailing challenges that Tinubunomics has taken care of or addressed frontally and aggressively,echo the issues that SAP program 1985/6 ought to have resolved foot (4) decades ago. But owing to poor implementation and even after more or less four decades has elapsed ,our economy has remained in the same doldrums that it had been mired and Nigerian masses have been stuck in poverty .

    Hopefully, the decadent past would change for the better with the actions so far taken by President Tinubu in less than four (4) weeks of holding the reins of presidential power ranging the appointments of chief of staff to the president, CoS,Femi Gbajabiamila ,deputy chief of staff Ibrahim Hassan Hadeija and Secretary to the Federal Government of Nigerian, SGFN,senator George Akume,hope  appear to have been renewed that Nigerian is on the cusp of a rebirth.

    Having put I.M.F conditionalities in perspective ,let us attempt an appraisal of Tinubunomics by taking a cursory look at the series of actions of president Tinubu in less than four (4) week of his presidency and their manifestations on society.

    Focusing on the team that would help him develop his Renewed Hope promise, one of the critical actions that he has taken is the appointment of some critical aids designated as Special Advisers in strategic areas that would be engaging the attention of Nigeria’s new leader, president Tinubu.

    An assessment of the caliber of people that he has assembled as core members of his team is critical because it would reflect the quality of the decisions that he has made and have so far created rippling effects and how well the policies would be implemented by the savvy technocrats.

    The policies that have had seismic effects rangefrom the first which is the dramatic announcement of the end of petrol subsidy in the course of making his maiden speech as president on 29 May, to the current pronouncements on more appointments of key officials that have combined to earn his policies the sobriquet:Tinubunomics.

    It is pertinent to recall that the penultimate senate president of the 9th National Assembly, NASS,Ahmad Lawan had on the 6th of June read out on the floor of the senate a letter from president Buhari requesting for their approval of 20 Special Advisers for him.

    It was noted by the senators that the names and roles to be played by the potential appointees were not specified in the letter. But in the spirit of the new beginning, the list was approved as requested.

    And apparently,president Tinubu has not disappointed the senate that gave him a Carte Blanche and indeed the electorate by appointing ten (10) thorough bred professionals into the role of Special Advisers which represents half of the 20 approved for him by the legislators in the upper chambers.

    The new Special Advisers who some pundits have aptly dubbed the members of the president’s ‘kitchen cabinet’ comprise of old timers and new comers.

    And l would like to describe them as new and old wines in a new bottle with Tinubu’s presidency being the new bottle.

    A typical old wine in the new bottle is Mr Dele Alake who is now Special Adviser, Special Duties,Communications and Strategy. He is characterized as old wine because he is one of the longest standing Tinubu devotees,having served as Commissioner for information and strategy during President Tinubu’s tour of duty as governor of lagos state-1999-2007.

    Since then he has remained steadfastly connected to president Tinubu through thick and thin to the extent that Mr Alake has become a sort of right arm of the two (2) arms of Asiwaju Tinubu,and not just a right hand man.

    A manifestation of the metaphorical description above happened during then presidential candidate Tinubu’s Chatham house outing on 5 December last year whereby Mr Alake (amongst a couple of other close associates of Tinubu)was assigned the role of responding to some questions posed by Chatham House panelists.

    In light of the above ,the new Special Adviser, Special Projects and Communications,Mr Alake’s prime role in the unfolding federal cabinet of president Tinubu is unsurprising as it had been long in coming.

    Having been assigned a role officially, his authenticity as the man that has the ears of the president is no longer in doubt.

    The situation whereby Mr Alake was challenged by the organized labor, NLC led by Comrade Joe Ajaero who questioned his role as a negotiator on behalf of government in the aftermath of the removal of petrol subsidy and threat by NLC to go on strike,would no longer arise.

    Mr Ajaero, the NLC president had during the first meeting after petrol subsidy removal was announced,stated publicly that he was not interested in negotiating with Mr Alake because he could not phantom in what capacity he was acting.

    That snide remark would not be repeated going forward because it has become clear that Mr Alake is the mouth piece and a key strategist for president Tinubu, therefore a powerful factor in Tinubunomics.

    Another Special Adviser whose pedigree  has its roots running all the way to President Tinubu’s political origin as governor of lagos state is Mr Wale Edun. Like Mr Alake,he too has remained with Mr President till date, even after his reign as governor of Lagos state from 1999-2007.

    Mr Edun is a consummate investment banker with a rich pedigree that run deep as an alumni of foremost United States of America, USA Investment banks-Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs amongst other leading financial institutions.

    After introducing innovative measures that enabled Lagos state to ramp up internally generated revenue from a mere N600 million monthly about two (2) decades ago to the billions level,after which the current administration took it to the region of N50 billion,Mr Edun had stepped aside from the role of finance commissioner in the wee days of Asiwaju Tinubu’s tenure as governor of Lagos state to play a more active role in the private sector where he founded and operated Denham Capital.

    But he remained an active member of the inner caucus of President Tinubu even after he pivoted into the private sector.

    Under the watch of President Buhari,Mr Edun had served as Chairman of the Board of Trustees for the Ogoni Trust Fund,focused on environmental clean up efforts Ogoniland in the Niger delta based on the recommendation of then APC national leader,Asiwaju Tinubu.

    Given his rich background in investment banking/financial engineering and in line with his role as former finance commissioner in lagos state,it was speculated that he would either be the new finance minister or governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN.

    And his appointment into the new role as Special Adviser Monetary Policy ends that speculation for now.

    Without an iota of doubt,the revelation by president Tinubu in his inaugural speech that it is his desire to see an end to the regime of multiple naira exchange rates and platforms that defined the immediate past regime’s management of the economy, emphasizing that there would also be some house cleaning the financial services sector, bore the imprimatur of Mr Edun whom Bloomberg news had earlier quoted as having stated that changes in the the financial landscape of Nigeria were imminent.

    During his parley with Nigerians in France on the sidelines of the global conference last week , President Tinubu revealed that Mr Edun is the leader of team Tinubu hashing out the policies that are driving Tinubunomics.

    Arising from the above ,his choice as president Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Monetary Policy is a sort of validation of his position as an inner caucus member of Team Tinubu and a significant factor in Tinubunomics.

    The third(3) Special Adviser appointed by President Tinubu is Mr Nuhu Ribadu,who is a police man who reigned as a fearless anti corruption tzar during the administration of President Olusegun Obasanjo from 1999 to 2007.

    Mr Ribadu is a retired police officer that assumed the role of an anti corruption crusader when he served as EFCC chairman and stepped on a lot of toes before he retired from the police force after rising to the rank of Assistant Inspector General of Police,AIG.

    Even though he has in the past indicted   then Lagos state governor and now president Tinubu for alleged financial crimes,he has nevertheless been named a Special Adviser, and later National Security Adviser, NSA by president Tinubu.  That makes him a critical player in Tinubunomics.

    So,from fighting financial crimes as EFCC boss by virtue of his new appointment, Mr Ribadu has been assigned an expanded sphere of influence as he would be incharge of the whole gamut of security of Nigeria which is a huge responsibility.

    The assertion above is in the light of the prime position that tackling insecurity occupies in the agenda of President Tinubu as the threat of religious insurgency, separatism and banditory have continued to defy solutions.

    Instead of insecurity abating,they are degenerating into a national scourge, as such they remain  a major threat to the continued corporate existence of Nigeria,which makes security a priority area of attention for president Tinubu.

    That Mr President assigned Mr Ribadu the all important NSA role speaks volumes because it implies that he is a critical component of Tinubunomics.

    And particularly so because a safe and secure environment is a precondition for a buoyant and virile economy that president Tinubu has promised the Nigerian electorate.

    And it is a sort of noble gesture for President Tinubu to appoint his former traducer as the NSA.

    My reading of the gesture is that either he does not take past differences between him and others personal, after all it is said that in politics there are no permanent enemies or friends but permanent interests.

    So ,President rather prefers to put grievances behind him and perhaps chooses to rather prioritize national interests and professionalism over personal gripe.

    What ever may be the justification , that lofty mindset in my view is a highly commendable leadership strength worthy of admiration and emulation because it demonstrates statesmanship.

    The fourth (4th) Special Adviser with known pedigree in the public sector of Nigeria that president Tinubu has appointed is, Ms Hadiza Bala Usman who is a political associate of Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, the immediate past governor of Kaduna state.

    Ms Bala Usman is an offspring of the famous academic and human rights activist from the northern part of our country ,Dr Bala Usman of blessed memory.

    And she is the immediate past Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer CEO of  Nigerian Ports Authority,NPA.

    She lost the job following a face-off with former minister of transport,Mr Rotimi Amaechi who leveled corruption allegations against her and of which she successfully absolved herself after thorough investigations.

    As a reform minded technocrat that has been tested in her leadership role in NPA during which innovative changes were introduced into the management of our country’s foremost port,she earned the reputation of being a change agent and therefore a foot-soldier in the Tinubunomics movement.

    Apart from the above listed four (4) Tinubunomics evangelists that are like old wine now put in a new bottle,there are six (6) new comers in the club of Special Advisers so far named and assigned portfolios by president Tinubu.

    The six (6) other new Special Advisers who do not poses well known pedigree of playing in Nigerian public sector are:

    Mr.Yau Darazo as Special Adviser,Political and Intergovernmental affairs,

    Mrs.Olu Verheijen who is Special Adviser, Energy, while Mr. Zachaeus Adedeji is the Special Adviser, Revenue.

    Also appointed are Mr.John Ugochukwu Uwajumogu who is the Special Adviser, Industry, Trade and Investment,while Dr (Mrs.) Salma Ibrahim Anas is Special Adviser, Health.

    There is also the spoken words poet, Hanatu Musa Musawa that serenaded television viewers with poetic presentation of the profile of president Tinubu who has also been appointed Special Adviser, Culture And Entertainment Economy.

    Two (2) amongst the six (6) new comers,Mr Darazo and Dr Anas are believed to be nominees of vice president Ibrahim Shettima.

    Being that it is a request for twenty (20) Special Advisers that president Tinubu made to the 9th NASS in a letter that was read on the floor by senator Ahmad Lawan in his capacity as senate president that got approved, President Tinubu still has outstanding ten (10) more Special Advisers yet to be unveiled as drivers of the evolving Tinubunomics ideology.

    And following the pattern of upgrading Mr Nuhu Ribadfu from Special Adviser on security to National Security Adviser, NSA, l have a hunch that in due course of time,most of the twenty (20) Special Advisers may also be upgraded to ministerial positions.

    The assumption is based on the suspicion that the twenty (20) experts originally designated as Special Advisers may constitute a cohort of professionals to be appointed into president Tinubu’s cabinet as ministers and they would be the core drivers of Tinubunomics prior to bringing in members of the political class through whose efforts he clinched the presidency.

    Over all ,l get the sense that given all the ground breaking steps that he has taken so far,President Tinubu has the courage to do what is necessary to move our country forward no matter whose ox is gored.

    Nevertheless,the new president needs to be kept on his toes to ensure that he delivers on his lofty promises. And l believe he is not averse to his legs being held to the fire literally, since l am unaware of any time that he has tried to gag the media despite being in the eyes of the storm in the past two decades or so of being a governor and now president and f Nigeria.

    However,Nigerians need to give him the chance to operationalize his new policies to enable them be the judge on whether they are efficacious or not before calling for his crucifixion as some are already doing in less than thirty days (30) days in office.

    In my estimation,President Tinubu’s administration in the short span of less than a month of being incharge of the destiny of over 200 million Nigerians has been making sense,thus far.

    That is simply because it makes sense to remove petrol subsidy that had not only assumed the dimension of an ogre,but has also taken on the characteristics of a cancerous tumor that had hitherto appeared as if it was incurable and therefore a cross that long suffering Nigerians must continue to bear until it literally kills us.

    The enormity of the challenge of subsidy revival from PMS  is so pervasive because the use or abuse of petrol basically impacts all aspects of our lives in Nigeria,particularly as mobility either by road which is the commonest means of transportation in our country or any other means is a critical and inevitable activity that we must all engage in as human beings on a daily basis.

    That is why the implementation of the

    removal of subsidy from the pump price policy led to a spike in the cost that has triggered the crisis and what appears to be like a case of farmers burning the bush to allow allow them prepare the soil to plant new crops in replacement of shrubs and that process amounts to regeneration.

    In other words under president Tinubu, Nigeria can be like a Phoenix rising from the  ashes.

    That is if the I.M.F type of reform conditionalities also featured in Tinubunomics are diligently implemented to the letter without capitulation or playing to the gallery of those opposed to the drastic change needed to give Nigeria a new lease of life.

    In my view ,Tinubu’s early accomplishments so far which can be deemed as a sort of building block far reaching reforms to come is a plus for all of Nigerians. That assertion is validated by the fact that his new policies have already started touching,in one way or the other,the entire spectrum of human endeavors in our country.

    As the conventional wisdom goes: the morning foretells the evening.

    Now,I have read some cynical comments in the social media diminishing the value of the actions so far taken by president Tinubu by not recognizing them as early accomplishments. How can the removal of petrol subsidy,collapsing multiple naira exchange rates and increasing electricity tariff not be commendable when any sincere analyst can see that they are measures that have liberalized our economy in ways that would ramp up economic growth and prosperity?

    It is a shame that the Obi-Dients who are suspected to be the architects of the mischievous comments trending in the social media are playing politics with everything.

    The rather unfortunate truth is that the Obi-Dients may or may not be the authors of the mischievous comments.

    But because they thrive in misinformation and have been bellicose and bitter,even post elections 2023, they have become the usual suspects.

    What they fail to acknowledge and which is very discomfiting is that misinformation or disinformation compromises and diminishes democracy as it could trigger street protests that could degenerate into chaos.

    To engage in activities that could crash democracy as was the case with the incendiary comments on democracy and the judiciary made by the LP vice presidential candidate,Senator Dati Baba-Ahmed and other inciting commentaries by other implacable losers in Lagos state and across the country would not bode well for the future of the party and democracy in our country.

    It is not a mere happenstance that the number one goal of most democracy advocates all over the world is the ultimate sustenance of the system which remains the most popular and successful system of governance all over the world till date.

    That is why l had in the past admonished Obi-Dients -Peter Obi and Dati Baba-Ahmed supporters that churning out fake news to push the agenda of their principal in order to gain undue advantage would backfire and unfortunately that backlash had materialized recently because such farcical stuff do not stand the test of time.

    They would equally be embarrassed if they choose to remain on a war path by being belligerent in their war of attrition by not acknowledging or commending the positive steps taken so far by president Tinubu which most reasonable people have acknowledged and applauded.

    My altruistic and candid advise is that the Obi-Dients should practice opposition politics within the ambits of reason,rather than always trying to pull the wool-over-the eyes of the electorate by not recognizing and even denouncing obviously good policy initiatives,which is hypocritical.

    Why are they cleverly trying to obfuscate the positive contents of the policies by demonizing them,rather than being unbiased commentators or forming a shadow cabinet that would be proffering superior policy initiatives countering Tinubunomics inspired ones?

    Unbeknownst to the Obi-Dients,such perfidy may constitute another Achilles heels for the Labor Party,LP in future attempts to win the presidency.

    So,disparaging the obviously bold and positive steps that President Tinubu has taken in less than one month of becoming president of Nigeria would cast the Obi-Dients and their principals in bad light as they may be portrayed as having become jaded and consumed by their jaundiced views colored with blind hatred and unbridled conscious bias against their political opponents even when they are doing the right thing.

    My candid advice is to wait for President Tinubu to falter before knocking him. That is what is expected of a truly emerging and focused opposition party like the LP.

    Apparently undeterred by the bellicosity of those who appear unwilling to give credit to whom it is due by casting a slur on the highly commendable policy decisions that he has made so far , president Tinubu has on June 20 jetted off to France to attend the French President Emmanuel Macron’s motivated Global Financial Impact Summit slatted for June 22-23.

    Attending the summit is in tandem with his quest for the return of foreign investors that fled from Nigeria in the wake of what some have termed the locust years of Buharinomics during which international conglomerates some of which have French origin fled from Nigeria under the toxic business environment foisted on the country by the suffocating agenda of making the economy unfriendly for investments by serious investors owing to the myriad of draconian policies entrenched in the system in the eight years of Buharinomics.

    Some of them include the inability to repatriate funds home by foreign investors owing to the complex foreign exchange regime that also made access to hard currencies to procure raw materials for sustenance of operations of the firms forced them to relocate the factories elsewhere.

    Clearly, President Tinubu and his Tinubunomics devotees seem to have identified the clogs and Mr President has thereafter been making bold decisions via pronouncements and signing of bills into law.

    Naturally,some are initially resulting in short term discomfort to the masses.

    But in the long run,the policies are expected to prove to be in the best interest of our beloved country and the entire citizenry.

    Given the reality above,which is creating a sort of prickly heat amongst the populace,I reckon that Mr President knows that it would be better,and in fact best,if he works the talk by backing his tough,but hope inspiring talk with concrete actions such as taking definitive steps towards cushioning the effects of petrol subsidy removal and imminent increase in electricity tariff currently causing distress in the minds of the masses.

    The recent information emanating from a commissioner in the Revenue Mobilization Allocation And Fiscal Commission that the federal government has increased the salary of members of the executive, legislative and judicial branches of government by one hundred and fourteen percent (114%) is a welcome development.

    That is even though it has been denied by the agency’s spokesman and Mr Dele Alake, Special Adviser, Special Duties and Communications to president Tinubu.

    As the saying goes: there is no smoke without fire.

    So government may be flying a kite.

    And a 114% increase in salaries of workers is in tandem with my recommendation of 100% in workers emoluments when l wrote in my column and other traditional and online media platforms in the early part of May,a piece titled : “Judiciary On Trial: Television Election Tribunal To The Rescue?”.

    I had also made the same case in a series of pieces that l wrote in the heat of the unprecedented eight (8) months long ASUU strike that literally crippled the education sector, indicating that  the old template of managing education in our country is unsustainable.

    The piece dwelt on the potential harsh effect of the peril of then pending subsidy removal which was meant to become operationalized at the end of the immediate past regime long  before President Tinubu’s administration was inaugurated. Below is how l made the case:

    “In my view, petrol subsidy must end as planned and a 100% increase in salaries for workers across board would be a necessary first step to ameliorate the consequential effect.But that is a subject for another discourse.”

    In effect,before petrol subsidy was removed,l had recommended 100% salary increase for workers as a first step to absorb the hardship that laid ahead for the long suffering Nigerian workers.

    Whether,the release of the information by RMFAC about the proposed 114% increase in wages for workers is a slip up ,or a deliberate attempt to test the opinion of the public is immaterial at this point in time.

    At least it is in reasonable compliance with the N300,000 minimum wage being demanded by Trade Union Congress , TUC led by Comrade Festus Osifo in their negotiations with government towards easing the pains on workers triggered by some of the new policies.

    At this point in time,what is of utmost importance is how to ameliorate the pains foisted on the masses by petrol subsidy removal and the impending hike in the cost of electricity following the signing into law of the electricity bill 2023 that has also freed up the sector as the old law had made the long sought industrialization of our country impossible since independence from Britain.

    The reformed laws in my opinion are vestiges of the covert perpetuation of anti industrialization laws inherited from the colonialist that wanted to perpetually make our country a supplier of raw materials to Europe as opposed to a producer of finished products that Nigeria has been aspiring to become without much success since independence in 1960.

    In the final analysis and after all said and done,government should do well not to adopt the palliative measures applied in the past when petrol subsidy was reduced.

    For instance Sure-P, provision of Mass Transit Buses for NLC to manage,setting up of pool of funds purportedly for infrastructure development like PTF etc which have proven to be monumental failure,should not be options to be considered.

    The ten (10) technocrats,(of the 20) so far engaged by president Tinubu as Special Advisers that l would like to refer to as Tinubunomics evangelists,should hurry up in coming up with the solutions that they have been crafting in order to bring about more innovative and productive ways of giving succor to the long suffering masses of Nigeria on short,medium and long terms basis.

    That is the minimum standard that President Tinubu must set in his bid to write his name in gold as the president who emancipated Nigeria from poverty to prosperity as Deng Xiaoping did in China over three (3) decades ago and earned himself the sobriquet: Architect of Modern China.

    President Tinubu can do the same by being diligent in the marshaling of his plans and deftness in the delivery of the much sought democracy dividends by Nigerian masses.

    That is the irreducible minimum that is expected of the new president who has so far demonstrated that he has prepared for the job of being the number one citizen of Nigeria.

    All things being equal,there is no question about whether hope has been renewed since 29 May that power changed hands in Aso Rock Villa from Buhari to Tinubu.

    Rather,it is a matter of how soon the hope would be realized. And Nigerians can not wait to exhale from the current choke holds that some of the new policies have become.

    Although ,President Tinubu and his Tinubunomics Marshals are serving as a beacon of hope for a rebirth of our beloved Nigeria,the current reality is that the manifestation of the renewed hope remains in the belly of time.

    Magnus Onyibe,an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Los Angeles, California,USA.

    To continue with this conversation,please visit www.magnum.ng

  • As Nigeria transits from Baba Go-Slow to Mr Go-Fast – By Magnus Onyibe

    As Nigeria transits from Baba Go-Slow to Mr Go-Fast – By Magnus Onyibe

    As the immediate past minister of lnformation and Culture ,Alhaji Lai Mohamed recently revealed in a media chat,president Mohammadu Buhari whose tenure just ended on May 29 is aware that Nigerians had nicknamed him Baba Go- Slow while he was presiding over the affairs of the country,2015-2023.

    That tag is derived from his reputation for applying snail speed in making decisions or his indecisiveness on critical national issues that snowballed with negative consequences on Nigeria and Nigerians.

    Some of the most glaring indecisions include the over due removal of the obnoxious subsidy on petrol pump price ostensibly to make it affordable to the poor and the operation of multiple foreign exchange rates aimed at propping up the naira thus giving it exaggerated value against foreign currencies.

    The aforementioned twin policies of the outgone administration are the bogeys that have sort of practically ruined the economy of our country because they are unproductive and unsustainable,hence they currently constitute the bulk of the mess that has been left behind by President Buhari for President Bola Tinubu and his team to clean up.

    Because of the increase in petrol price,the cost of transportation has been jerked up, and the masses have been immediately negatively impacted,hence an uproar by the masses.

    While the Nigerian National Petroleum Company ltd ,NNPCL has validated the increase by announcing a new price regime triggering about 300% increase ,the multiple Foreign Exchange rate,FX in the country are converging.

    Take for example the Import and Export, I&E window and the official government rates that the gaps are gradually closing up.

    The CBN in my reckoning is encouraging convergence of the windows by discouraging demand for FX by Nigerians through stiffer conditions precedent to receive FX from the CBN.

    For instance,l have sighted a circular that states that from the 1st day of June, Nigerians are required to present a three (3) year tax clearance certificate to be qualified to obtain FX at official rate with respect to Basic Travel Allowance, and Business Travel Allowance,BTA.
    How many Nigerians have such tax clearance certificates?
    With the process of obtaining FX tougher, fewer Nigerians would be applying for it and the pressure will be less and the naira would become strengthened and more stable .

    Just like the high cost of petrol has resulted in the disappearance of queues to purchase petrol in the retail stations,with the new CBN rule,most Nigerians would be unable to apply for the purchase of FX and the penchant for traveling abroad would be reduced.

    So,the pronouncement by president Tinubu about an end of petrol subsidy and his desire to see a unification of all exchange rates with the naira in his inaugural speech,which is in stark contrast with ex president Mohammadu Buhari’s famous body language approach,is impacting both the cost of petrol and naira exchange rate with foreign currencies.
    But it is doing so at different levels of impact.

    Whereas there has been panic and tension arising from the astronomical petrol price increase, because it impacts practically everyone, (poor or rich) there is no panic arising from the FX rate adjustments simply because it applies perhaps to only about 10% of Nigerians who are the elite that travel abroad for business, educational,medical or holiday purposes.

    All of the rapid changes catalogued above are the realities that justify tagging ex President Buhari as Baba Go-Slow and President Tinubu as Mr Go-Fast.

    Drawing from the wisdom in the aphorism, the morning foretells the evening,by now it should be clear to all that when president Tinubu coughs Nigeria catches a cold.

    That is one of the reasons that l have elected to brand him Mr Go-Fast so that Nigerians can understand the underlying reasons for some of the contents of his inaugural speech that is having a bombshell effect on Nigerian society.

    Of course there is a myriad of other reasons for branding former president Buhari Baba Go-Slow .

    They include the rash of bills that only got signed into law by President Buhari in the proverbial 11th hour of the life of the immediate past administration .

    Those pieces of legislation, according to reliable sources had been deliberated upon by law makers and they had been awaiting the signature of the president for months,if not years before he eventually appended his signature on his way out.

    And one event that stands out and therefore justifies the unenviable toga of Baba Go-Slow on former President Buhari is his inability or lack of interest in putting together a cabinet until he had spent a whooping six(6) months in office.

    If president Buhari was slow in action,the new president Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the direct opposite in terms of speed of action.

    In any case ,most pundits had speculated that he would likely hit the ground running. So it is no surprise that he is acting true to type.

    Incidentally,l had observed in a piece titled: “Post Elections Conflicts,Peace And Hand Of God” and published in my column on May 2 before he was inaugurated into office that the president would hit the ground running as he has had time, especially during his two (2) trips to Europe while he was president- in-waiting to assess the situation of governance of Nigeria and come up with possible solutions.

    In the piece,l expressed alarm that a critical ministry had no operating manual until a few weeks to the end of the administration:
    “Ideally,every ministry in the executive branch of government should have a long term development plan which should encompass the regime’s broad agenda.
    As revealed by the minister of Interior Mr Rauf Aregbesola,the ministry of the lnterior had no such development plan until recently. To be specific,the 18th of April ( barely one month to the end of the current regime )that he launched one”.

    I continued by stating that “It beggars belief that critical ministry charged internal security had no defined plan of action. That implies that it had been operating on staccato basis.
    If that is the case,then it is clear why the authorities have been unable to rein in religious Insurgency in the northern axis and separatism in the south east plus crude oil theft in the Niger delta”.

    Further more ,l made the following observation “And there is every likelihood that the identified gap in the interior ministry applies to all the other ministries departments and agencies MDAs from the top to the bottom rung of the outgoing administration which obviously has no grand strategy.”
    I argued further by stating that: “One would have thought that in the cause of the numerous retreats organized by the executive arm in the course of the nearly eight (8) years that President Buhari has been at the helm of affairs,a grand strategy for the management of the sociopolitical and economic affairs of our country would have been hashed out.
    Apparently, given the revelation by lnterior minister, Aregbesola that is far from being the case”.

    Then l condemned the short comings by commenting thus: “Little wonder leadership at the centre has been lack luster, performance far below the expectations of Nigerians whose desire for security of their lives and properties as well was economic transformation from poverty to prosperity has been unmet,hence the legacy of the outgoing government is sorrow ,tears and blood”.

    And l finally concluded by hinting at the approach which l reckoned that then president- elect ,now president Tinubu would adopt upon his inauguration:
    “Clearly, president-elect Tinubu’s mission upon taking office on 29 May would contrast the current leadership style at the centre with a new paradigm that would give Nigeria a new lease of life in a truly democratic atmosphere as opposed to the pseudo democracy which by all measure it is currently”.

    Incredibly,it is the scenario that l had envisaged long ago that is currently playing out as the new president is complying with the law.

    In a follow up piece titled: “President-Elect Tinubu, Likely First Billionaire Private Jet Owner To Occupy Aso Rock Villa” published on 16 May in my column,l also highlighted the fact that Asiwaju Tinubu as president-elect (before being sworn into office) was already on a business drive for investors in foreign countries,particularly Europe to put Nigeria in their radar for investment.

    He did that during his last visit to United Kingdom,UK and France when departed our shores on May 10 and returned ten (10) days after on May 20 ,which is nine (9) days to his 29 May inauguration date.

    That implies that even before he got sworn into office as president,Asiwaju Tinubu was already working implying that Mr President has a lot of zeal,passion and preparedness to serve:
    “Invariably,it appears to me that it is the desire to save the economy and also have something tangible to show in the first 100 days in office that are the motivators for the president-elect Tinubu’s hurry to go to work quickly and as the saying goes: ‘hit the ground running’.
    “That is the justification for his embarking on a trade drive in Europe even before officially receiving the baton of leadership from president Buhari which would only happen on 29 May all this being equal and which is still more or less two (2)weeks away”.

    Arising from the above,Nigerians should not be surprised that he actually hit the ground running with his announcement of the very consequential policy decision to comply with the provision in the PIA that petrol subsidy policy had been abolished from June.

    Apparently,he had already thought it through when he was president-in-waiting.

    In my view the type of patriotic fervor that the new president is bringing into governance of Nigeria by not hesitating to take unpopular decisions in the best interest of our country is reflective of the fact that he has been preparing for the job for a long time as he had admitted in several media interviews.

    To me, it also shows that unlike what is typical of politicians who more often than not distance themselves from their campaign promises as soon as they win the contest , President Tinubu has elected to keep his campaign promise as evidenced by a trending video in the social media where he had during his hustings vowed to,(if elected) remove petrol subsidy that is killing Nigeria,come what may.

    It was somehow exhilarating that the challenges that l predicted like a prophecy that the new president would be faced with and how they may manifest started becoming reality barely 24 hours after he took the oath of office.

    At this juncture ,I would like to crave the indulgence of readers once again to allow me reproduce a snippet of the referenced article relevant to what occurred immediately after Mr President took his oath of office:
    “Another ‘can’ as the Americans would put it that is being kicked down the road by the outgoing government for the in-coming government to deal with is the burden of removing the obnoxious petrol pump price that by some estimates the authorities have been sinking funds in the region of $15 billion dollars in the past decade”.

    I further made my point by stating that: “It may be recalled that just last year alone ,a whopping six (N6) trillion naira was budgeted for petrol subsidy and just for the half of this year alone(January to June) three and half (N3.5) trillion was also appropriated as petrol subsidy in budget 2023.
    That is a total of nearly ten (N10) trillion naira sunk into subsidy for petrol in less than two(2) years in a country that the government is borrowing money from banks and relying on ways-and-means (printing the naira )to pay salaries to civil servants”.

    In trying to consolidate my point the following submission was made: “In the same category of what l would like to categorize as escapist tactics that reflect political spinelessness of the outgoing administration is the case of the naira that had been propped up in the past eight (8) years via Central Bank of Nigeria,CBN intervention policy of injecting billions of dollars into the Foreign Exchange,FX market resulting in trillions of naira being expended to defend the local currency”.

    Noting that the CBN measures failed to achieve the objective of keeping the naira at par with the United States dollar which was a campaign promise made in 2015 by the outgone administration ,l justifiably made the following argument: “Despite,the interventions,government exchange rate or lmport and Export,I&E window which was about N160 to $1 in 2015 had reached N450 to $1 by this time last year and it is currently N460 with the black/parallel market rate hovering around N765 to a dollar.

    Going by the rate at which the gap between CBN and black/parallel market rates is closing up since the dollar injection to defend the naira stopped ,it appears as if the the CBN may be left with no better option than to allow for the two (2)market rates to merge sooner than later”.

    Continuing,l expressed my convictions about imminent further devaluation of the naira this way: “And should the matter continue to be out of the control of the CBN,since the Nigerian National Petroleum Company,NNPC currently a limited liability company that is about to be privatized is no more remitting crude oil income to the CBN which in turn is no longer able to intervene in the exchange market by pumping dollars into the system through multiple bureau de change outfits selling dollars to the highest bidders to shore up the value of the naira,our local currency may soon be exchanging at about N1000 to one United States dollar by this year’s end”.

    There after, l reached the conclusion below which is almost prophetic because it has panned out:
    “That may be the reality that the new administration under president-elect Tinubu’s watch may have to deal with immediately upon assuming office, especially as the current governor of the apex bank,Mr Godwin Emefiele,highly stressed and distressed due to the enormity of the burden of managing Nigeria’s complex and complicated financial system has been reported in the media to be planning to go on study leave validating the rumor that he would be quitting his role as the curtain falls on the stage for the current administration.

    The narrative was concluded with the following emphatic prediction: “Similarly,after the removal of petrol subsidy which is due next month,it is being predicted that the pump price of the commodity may also spike up to the region of N350-N500 per liter”.

    Co-incidentally, petrol price is now selling at the N500 naira benchmark as l had projected.

    The other event that is bound to also create prickly heat,if not turmoil,following the withdrawal of subsidy from naira foreign exchange rate was also predicted thus: “The immediate consequence of the anticipated spikes in prices of Foreign Exchange and petrol that are essential services with high impact effect on the masses would be that the inflation rate in our country that is currently 22.22% (which is a seventeen (17) years high based on National Bureau of Statistics,NBS report) could become double of the current level.

    And that would spell more misery for the critical masses of Nigerians of which about one hundred and thirty (130m) million of our compatriots are said to be living below poverty line”.

    Following the above projections,Nigerians should have braced up for the worse in the preliminary stages of Tinubu’s presidency because a lot of rot that is making the economy and by extension our country sick would be aggressively be dealt with to give the nation a new lease of life .

    That is why President Tinubu’s demonstration of boldness by literally taking the bull by horn that was also in tandem with the projection in the referenced article should be commendable.
    Below is how l had put it:
    “Given the doom and gloom picture of the economy and country that the incoming president would be inheriting,a faint hearted president-elect would have balked at the enormity of the challenges ahead.
    But the incoming president,Asiwaja Bola Ahmed Tinubu also known as the Lion Of Bourdilon by his fans and foes alike is not a faint hearted leader”.

    In my estimation,President Tinubu is bringing stability and certainty to the management of Nigeria and the economy which is needed at this point in time to earn the confidence of potential investors-local and foreigners alike who have been skittish about the uncertainties entrenched by the immediate past administration .

    As a further evidence of his dynamism suggesting leadership from the front which indicates that he would be more responsive than his predecessor,president Tinubu had also quickly resolved the face-off between the Department Of State Security Services, DSS and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission,EFCC when the former laid siege on the offices of the latter in an inter agency squabble.

    It may be recalled that when a similar incident occurred under the watch of the immediate past administration,the confrontation was not promptly deescalated as president Tinubu has done by ordering DSS to immediately vacate EFFC premises that it had forcefully occupied.

    The new president has also met with the leaders in the other major security arms of government during which he informed them that he would not tolerate their working at cross purposes.

    It is hoped that his marching order would not turn out to the sort that president Buhari gave and he was not aware that a particular security chief was not where he should have been in compliance with the order of The Commander- in-Chief C-in C of the armed forces of Nigeria.

    One would imagine that president Tinubu would demand accountability,monitoring and feedback from the respective security chiefs that met with him.

    Given the scenario above,it should not be such a surprise to followers of political developments in Nigeria that president Tinubu has moved swiftly by making decisions in a manner that is quite the opposite of his predecessor who was often dilly dallying.

    The assertion above is validated by the fact that after he took the oath of office as the sixteenth (16th) president and commander-in-chief of the armed forces of Nigeria on Monday 29 May,in his inaugural speech,he uttered the words: “Fuel Subsidy Is Gone” which has had a tumultuous, if not tsunami like effect in the lives of our country men /women .

    That is a declaration that has sealed the controversy over petrol subsidy in Nigeria and it is a statement that past administrations-military and democratic alike-have dreaded and therefore avoided dealing with like a plague.

    And it is on record that Military heads of state,ranging from generals,Olusegun Obasanjo,Mohammadu Buhari,Ibrahim Babangida to Sanni Abacha have been too lily-livered to remove petrol subsidy although,they were military and autocratic rulers.

    Even both ex presidents Obasanjo and Buhari as democratically elected presidents had also failed to end petrol subsidy under their watch despite their reputation as strong men. So where they should have been like lions,they have been like kittens.

    It is amazing how tough army generals have proven to be unable to make tough political decisions like ending an economic policy that has almost wrecked our country . I have always bern intrigued when in movies most villainous men are unable to pull the trigger when children and would be in harms way. I guess that is how God wired them.

    Otherwise ,how can Army Generals who have not only gone to war and participated in active battle fields,but have killed people in combat and commanded their troops to kill opposing soldiers and even civilian foes in some cases, be afraid to end debilitating policies like petrol pump price subsidy and propping up of the naira against foreign currencies at monumental costs to the nation’s treasury.

    If it did not happen for real,it could never have been imagined that the no nonsense military dictators could demur from taking decisions such as the removal of petrol subsidy and multiple naira exchangevrate with foreign currencies that would prevent our country from descending into economic ruins in which it is currently mired.

    Think of the killing of innocent civilians in Odi in Bayelsa state and Zakibiam in Benue state on the alleged orders of Olusegun Obasanjo,president,1999-2007.

    Also think of the notorious sergeant Rogers and his killing machine deployed to eliminate civilians resisting military autocracy and advocating for return to Democratic governance that were mowed down in broad daylight under the watch of army general Sani Abacha (1993/1998)

    The fearless democracy advocate,Kudirat Abiola ,the wife of Chief MKO Abiola of blessed memory who is the acclaimed winner of the June 12th 1993 presidential elections was a victim of military tyranny when she got murdered in cold bold by sergeant Rogers etal.

    Also add the fact that members of the defunct National Democratic Coalition,NADECO including senator Bola Tinubu (as he was then known) that were hounded into exile by the aforementioned tyrannical military leaders who were toppling governments-both military and democratically elected,but could not summon the courage to ‘topple’ petrol subsidy and multiple FX rates regime.

    The foregoing retrospection is to enable readers get a clearer picture of the caliber of men who inspired fear in mortals in their hey days,yet they were unable to make the critical decision to remove petrol subsidy whose negative effects on Nigerian economy and the well being of the good people of our beloved country can be said to be worse than the effect of COVID -19 pandemic.

    Clearly,where the ex soldiers have been dreading and therefore failed spectacularly to make a decision and act boldly,perhaps they are not trained to manage civilians,the brand new president,Bola Ahmed Tinubu has decided without equivocation or hesitancy to tread.

    Although,the decision to announce the end of petrol pump price regime and imminent convergence of multiple exchange rates regime is bound to be painful initially,which is currently the case, it is generally agreed that it is an inevitable path to the redemption of our country from the self inflicted wound that has the potentiality and capacity to be fatalistic.
    That is with respect to the need for petrol subsidy removal as vice president Kashim Shettima has stated in his recent address on his first day at work : “lf we don’t end petrol subsidy it may end the country“

    In the light of the above,terminating without further delay the petrol subsidy regime which is metaphorically like a malignant cancer that is close to the terminal stage of killing its victim ,hence it had to be removed before it metastasizes, is a decision which all Nigerians must embrace.

    Obviously,the end of cheap petrol has become a sort of fait accompli as it has been endorsed by practically all Nigerians.
    The only issue with it is the style that president Tinubu adopted in announcing it which did not gel with some stakeholders-particularly the Nigerian Labor Congress, NLC that has threatened to commence a strike actin from next Wednesday.

    That is regardless of the fact that the foundation for the new oil/gas exploration regime had long been laid with the signing of the Petroleum Industry Act,PIA into law in August 2021 by President Buhari after the legislature passed it in July of the same 2021.

    The PIA introduced a new regulatory framework that reformed the century old rules guiding the exploration of oil and gas in Nigeria that had been stifling the required growth in the sector simply because the old rules had become as obsolete and fossil as the fossil fuel mined from the soil.

    An integral and very critical component of the reform intrinsic in the PIA is the definitive end to subsidy payment ostensibly aimed at reducing the pump price of petrol purportedly in the interest of the masses who presumably can not afford to pay the real cost.

    But in reality studies have revealed that petrol subsidy has been benefiting the wealthy more than that the masses that it was targeting.
    That is because statistics indicate that only about 10% of Nigerians that are car owners are benefiting more from subsidized petrol pump price policy.

    The assertion above is basically underscored by the fact that in most cases it is the wealthy Nigerians that own fleets of luxury cars with high engine capacities of up to 12 cylinders that are guzzling the cheap petrol who are gaining from petrol subsidy.

    In advanced societies,high petrol cost discourage ownership of a fleet of vehicles by the rich. That is apart from the fear of the taxation for owing a certain number of cars.

    Yes ,car ownership is taxed in Germany for instance.
    Some time ago,l invited a Germany partner firm involved in waste management to speak at a conference/seminar on effective ways of managing waste in Nigeria that my company organized .

    As readers may be aware ,Germany is a leading country in waste management mainly due to the activities of the Green Party which commands significant influence in German politics.

    While the Germans were visiting,after the event,l decided to take them round to various states across Nigeria to have first hand knowledge about the situation and also leveraging the attendees as local anchor,try to strike deals in waste management with relevant authorities in various states across the six (6) regions.

    And my German guests were conveyed in multiple cars between Abuja and adjourning states that we visited.
    Another set of cars took the visitors and l around from Asaba in delta state to surrounding states.

    Unbeknown to me,my guests were discreetly asking the drivers conveying them about who owns the cars.
    Perhaps they were doing so to confirm the financial capacity of my firm and its ability to be their partner in Nigeria.

    At the end of their visit,during a dinner party that l hosted in their honor in my home in lagos,my partners expressed surprise that l had personal cars in Abuja , Lagos and Agbor, delta state where l hail from.

    Their leader informed me that although he is a multi billionaire in Germany,he only owns two (2) cars.
    That is because in Germany where he came from,he would be taxed heavily if he were to own more cars .

    I then informed him that In Nigeria,there is no tax on ownership of cars.
    And that is perhaps why Germany is the richest country in Europe and Nigeria has remained the potential richest country in Africa.

    Simply put ,while Nigeria’s humungous human and material resources have not been optimally harnessed via fiscal discipline,end to existing profligacy in government and expansion of constricted tax net,Germany is a country where all resources are optimized and best in class governance tools and systems are deployed by the administrators.

    I am of the conviction that it is that type of innovative measures/ approach to governance that would move our country from being the poverty capital of the world to a nation to be reckoned with in the global comity of nations that president Tinubu would be onboarding in his tenure.

    The message contained in his inaugural speech and the actions that he has taken so far and which have taken some Nigerians by surprise and thus created a firestorm of sort in the society is a testament to how president Tinubu intends to take our country by storm while passing it through the furnace for refinement from it’s current crude form to a better and more functional country that truly guarantees the safety and prosperity of all no matter the tongue,tribe or faith.

    In conclusion, the experience of Nigerians with the commencement of the administration of Nigeria under president Tinubu’s watch may be likened to an aircraft at the point at which it is taking off which is always full of turbulence.
    After gaining some height as the aircraft soars into the skies,the flight becomes smoother with the passengers enjoying tranquility.

    While not claiming to be clairvoyant,that is my simple illustration of how l perceive president Tinubu’s reign. Although it is turbulent in its nascent stage of take-off, there is high likelihood that it would be stable at cruising level before sunset.

    So,l urge all well meaning and patriotic Nigerians to join president Tinubu and his team in slaying the twin dragon of petrol pump price subsidy that is compelling our country to borrow to pay salaries of public servants after deploying basically nearly all our revenue into subsidy payments, even when the nation is earning income from oil /gas sales and the multiple naira exchange rate regime fueling arbitrage which has impoverished the masses as the CBN is literally bleeding FX to defend the naira for ego purposes,while the well connected who obtain dollar at N460 and sell same at N760 and above to the real industrialists who need it.
    These are the phenomena bankrupting our country.

    Without appearing to be holding brief for president Tinubu, in his speech he actually stated that there would be further elucidation on the policy directions of his administration by his team by stating the following:
    “In the coming days and weeks,my team will publicly detail key aspects of our programme. Today, permit me to outline in broad terms a few initiatives that define our concept of progressive good governance in furtherance of the Nigerian ideal”

    Arising from the above,l would like readers to avert their minds towards anticipating that similar to how national or state governments budgets breakdown are given by the economic planning team led by the minister or commissioner of finance and economic adviser after the president or governor has presented the budget to the country or state as the case may be; it is in that same manner that the granular details about the measures to be taken to soften the hardships arising from the removal of subsidy on premium motor spirit,PMS would be shared with the populace in due course.

    My guess is that the new administration has been unable to do so as fast as it should have,simply because the appointment of the officials that would carry out the assignment has only been partially made with the naming of the outgoing speaker of the winding up House of Representatives,Rt. Honorable Femi
    Gbajabiamila as Chief of Staff to the president and and Senator George Akume, former Benue state governor and the immediate past minister of special duties, Secretary to the Government of the Federation, SGF.

    In the coming days,the cabinet that would assist President Tinubu in steering the ship of state would be unfurled so that all hands would be on board.

    And the strategy that would serve as the shock absorber for the masses from being harmed by the hard landing that the petrol subsidy removal announcement has caused would be unfolded.

    One lesson that our political leaders must imbibe or internalize is that the human mind is so complex that no matter what you do in leadership, you are damned.

    That is more so ,if the outcome does not produce the proverbial dividends of democracy which is improved welfare of the citizens in an atmosphere of good governance, prosperity and reasonable freedom for the people.

    Fortuitously, the end of petrol subsidy and naira subsidy which President Tinubu is laser focused on,are means to an end which is the unshackling of Nigerians and Nigeria from the crisis of debt trap that we are currently caught in and the demoralizing feeling of being the poverty capital of the world.

     

    Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.

    To continue with this conversation, please visit www.magnum.ng

  • Petrol subsidy removal, Dangote refinery as best kept secret – By Magnus Onyibe

    Petrol subsidy removal, Dangote refinery as best kept secret – By Magnus Onyibe

    Hitherto, Nigeria had been known as a net exporter of crude oil and a perpetual importer of refined petroleum products.

    As we all know crude or raw products are sold for very little while processed or finished products attract much higher price.

    That is the logic behind or the thesis in my book that is in the pipeline titled: “Africa Exporting Wealth,Importing Poverty”.

    So,the kernel of the message in my forthcoming book is that when we export raw materials such as cocoa seeds and crude oil from Nigeria to Europe or anywhere in the world ,we are exporting wealth. And when we import processed cocoa based beverages and refined mpetroleum products from abroad, we are importing poverty.

    That is simply because trade and economics dynamics dictate that raw materials which are the real wealth cost less,while processed materials attract costs that are multiple times,even as much as ten (10) folds more than the value of the raw materials.

    The same principle applies to gas , gold, iron ore that are abundant in Africa being extracted and taken away in their crude form for processing or value adding overseas.

    That inequality of value in raw materials endemic in Africa is largely responsible for Nigeria and indeed Africa being occupiers of the bottom rung of the ladder as the continent has remained home to the least prosperous countries in the world.

    Worse still,apart from the raw materials that we export and which attract minuscule price as proceeds,when we export basic raw materials,we are also exporting jobs. That is because it is the factories overseas that process the raw materials into finished goods that would be providing jobs for youths of their own countries at the expense of our army of unemployed youths.

    That is one of the reasons that our youths are literally wasting away in our country which is the origin of the raw materials that should have been processed at home to earn more income from overseas buyers.

    Arising from the picture painted above ,it was gratifying to me that Dangote refinery would be the first privately owned business concern of its magnitude processing Nigerian crude oil into petrol. And it fits smugly into my desire to see a situation whereby our country would be adding value to raw materials by processing them at home before exporting the same products abroad with a view to earning higher income that would improve the balance of trade between Nigeria and her various trading partners around the world.

    That would lead to the catalyzing of prosperity for our people and enable our country move from the bottom to higher levels in the perking order of the comity of nations of the world.

    That is as opposed to just exporting raw materials which has been the lot of our country since Britain colonized her following the partitioning of Africa during the Berlin conference of 1884 whereby European countries shared Africa amongst themselves and the European country currently known as the United Kingdom,UK started exploiting Nigeria for her raw materials.

    So,to me,the commissioning of Dangote refinery is significant in a personal way.

    And for that reason Dangote refinery will be a strong reference point in my aforementioned book which is focused on why and how Nigeria and indeed Africa should add value to their natural produce that colonialists used to refer to as cash crops and solid minerals that were the main reasons that they targeted and literally raped our country and continent following a long period of pillaging her assets including human beings converted to slaves and shipped off to sugar plantations in the Caribbean and cotton farms in the Americas.

    According to records,the exploitation started a couple of millennium ago via the arrival of missionaries on our shores ostensibly to spread the gospel of God. Thereafter,it expanded into slave trade across the Atlantic Ocean.

    Subsequently,the extraction of the natural resources that abound in our country and continent became the attraction for colonialists and their new mission.

    Having a Dangote refinery in Nigeria that would be reversing the ugly trend of Africa and Nigeria being net exporter of primary produce by exporting refined petroleum instead of crude oil,in a very elaborate way is very significant and heart warming to me and l guess to other patriotic Nigerians and indeed Africans.

    Hypothetically,let us imagine that Nigeria was earning ten ($10) billion from crude oil sales annually.
    By refining the crude petroleum products into petrol through Dangote refinery,the value would increase at least ten (10) folds. In other words,when crude oil is refined in Nigeria into petrol and exported, it would earn the nation about one hundred ($100) billion dollars,not just $10 billion if it had exported unrefined crude.

    Would that not be the long sought golden age for Nigeria?

    Having said that,at this juncture,it is pertinent and appropriate that l point out that when l raised the issue about the outgoing government not laying out any frame work for post petrol subsidy regime,in my article titled: “Elections 2023,Bruised Political Parties And Crushed Nigerians”published in my column way back in March l had no idea that Dangote refinery would be coming on stream so soon and it was the fall back position by government.

    Here is how l raised my concern: “But up till now,there is no framework or plan on how the effect of the subsidy on the masses would be mitigated through policies and programs that would bring human face to the end of petrol subsidy regime which Nigerians actually desire”.

    Amazingly,that concern was addressed by the just commissioned Dangote refinery and petrochemical plant that has a production capacity for processing 650 million liters of petroleum products and 900,000 polypropylene daily.

    As the refinery that is touted as the largest single train petrol refinery anywhere in the world is being onboarded,Nigeria’s and Nigerian’s perennial battle with insufficient quantity and ineffective distribution of petroleum products that have had debilitating effect on the masses,appear to be in the process of being consigned to the past.

    Since a song and dance had not been made about the development until a couple of days ago that the humungous complex got commissioned as the outgoing administration prepares to hand over the baton of leadership to a new pair of hands ,it would appear as if it is the best kept secret.

    The Central Bank of Nigeria,CBN governor,Godwin Emefiele could not contain his enthusiasm about the commissioning of the plant as he gushed about being vindicated in the investment of the CBN funds (via NNPC 20% equity holding) in the monumental project despite skepticism from potential investors and financial institutions from the advanced economies of the Western world such as JP Morgan etc.

    Overwhelmed by excitement,the apex bank helmsman who was over the moon that the construction of the petroleum processing project has finally come into fruition under his watch, revealed that about 70% of the loan for Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals plant had been repaid even before the refinery commenced operation.

    Mr Emefiele acknowledged that the revelation was against the wish of the promoter of the project,Aliko Dangote whose personal style is to understate his financial prowess. So,he might have been flustered by the exposition.

    But in the spirit of the momentous and joyous occasion,and since it is in positive light,the self effacing Dangote Industries Chairman Aliko Dangote must have accepted the ‘expo’ (a colloquial tag for a leaked information) hence there has not been any rebuttal.

    If indeed only 30% of the principal loan is outstanding (and the apex bank governor should know that since CBN invested about N125b for 20% stake) it would be such a cheerful and extraordinary development.

    My bullishness about the new refinery in lagos stems from the fact that by establishing the monumental refinery, Dangote group has effectively taken over the function typically reserved for and undertaken mainly by sovereign governments owing to the sheer size of capitalization and coordination required.

    Indeed,it is unprecedented that a local private entrepreneur would embark on a humongous investment of up to the tune of $18.5 billion in an infrastructural service such as the biggest single train refinery in the world that has the capacity to produce 300,000,000 liters of PMS daily which is way more than the demand of Nigerian petroleum products consumers.

    What the apex bank helmsman’s revelation simply implies is that only 30% of the $18.5 billion dollars loan is outstanding before the cost is fully paid up for the gigantic complex that would have a multiplier effect,not only on Nigerian economy,but that of the African continent,particularly the west African sub region which has been a ready and steady market for smuggled petrol out of Nigeria.

    As we very well know,our neighboring countries have been the veritable receptacles for smugglers of our subsidized refined petrol,which is four (4) times cheaper in Nigeria,across our borders into their domains in connivance with unscrupulous Nigerian business men /women.

    On the reverse side,the inflow of an assortment of banned products from neighboring countries ranging from frozen chicken,rice and sugar into Nigerian market including small arms and ammunitions facilitating deadly religious Insurgency,terrorism,pastoralists and farmers clashes as well as environmental rights and resource control agitators/militants, not forgetting separatist movements that have also been threatening to tear Nigeria apart.

    All of the above cross border smuggling activities are generating negative consequences on our economy resulting in genuine local entrepreneurs who pay requisite taxes to government not being unable to compete in price with the smuggled products.

    That is the situation that prompted or informed government’s decision to close our country’s borders with neighboring countries from August 2019 for an unusually lengthy period (about one year) with punishing effect on Nigerian masses.

    But it came with the salutary benefit of the populace learning to consume what they produce by weaning themselves of the acquired tastes that have been causing the bleeding of the treasury of our country via export of capital arising from our unbridled love for foreign made goods and their importation.

    It is for the foregoing reasons that people in authority like CBN’s Emefiele believe that the national border closure is one of the factors that facilitated Nigeria’s self sufficiency in rice production for which he has been patting himself and the outgoing administration on the back.

    In terms of investment in some sectors of the economy to stimulate activities and engender growth of our economy,the apex bank’s helmsman also explained that about N9 trillion naira has been invested in priority areas via interventions in entrepreneurial ventures such as rice farming etc at single digit interest rates loans to Nigerians.

    Such financial interventions includes the injection of approximately N125 billion (20% NNPC equity) that was revealed as having been extended to Dangote group for the construction of the first private and largest refinery and petrochemical plant in Nigeria.

    In the reckoning of the authorities,the closure of our national border last year for about one year also enabled our country have a good idea of the quantity of petrol being smuggled across the borders to neighboring countries.

    And it is the process of ripping -off government by nefarious businessmen that is the key factor fueling the ballooning of the volume of petrol purportedly being used by motorists in the country between 60-66 million.

    Without subsidy,the volume of petrol imported into Nigeria may actually be half of what is being bandied by the agencies in charge-NNPC and its subsidaries/affiliates involved in oil/gas assets management.

    Arising from the fraud (volume gauging) inherent in the subsidy driving the smuggling of the products across borders which is at least sometimes four (4) times more expensive in neighboring countries ,the quantum of funds applied in sustaining it also rose dramatically from N307 billon in 2015 to between N4-6 trillion in 2022.

    That simply means that the exponential increase in the quantity of petrol claimed to be consumed in our country is driven by the N4 to N6 trillion that was sunk into sustaining the wrong headed policy last year alone and and N3.5 trillion from January to June this year.

    And going by the figures above,it would amount to nearly N10 trillion that has literally been flushed down the drain between 2022 budget and half of 2023 ending next month,June when the incumbent government is supposed to end the economically destructive petrol subsidy regime.

    Cumulatively,the humongous quantum of funds estimated to be in the neighborhood of N10 trillion budgeted in 2022 and 2023 as petrol subsidy are part of the estimated $15 billion believed to have been the sunk fund on subsidizing PMS in the past decade or so.

    Drawing from the statistics that the estimated N6 trillion expenditure on petrol subsidy in 2022 national budget outstrips the entire income/revenue of N5 trillion generated from petroleum by our country last year,the concept of implementing petrol pump price subsidy that has literally gobbled up our country’s entire revenue moves from the realms of absurdity to sheer lunacy by our leaders.

    And that is underscored by the fact that no reasonable justification could be adduced for such irrational policy that has practically kept our country on a ruinous path.

    Is it not depressing how strong headedness about terribly wrong policies such as subsidizing petrol pump price and propping of the value of the naira against foreign currencies have prevented our country from truly becoming the giant of Africa,not just in name but by its positive impact on the entire continent by unleashing its huge untapped potentials as the establishment of Dangote refinery has capacity and ability to end food and energy insecurity on the continent ?

    It is in the light of the above that it is such a welcome relief that the coming on stream of Dangote refinery can be deemed as a panacea to the myriad of socioeconomic ills that have been dogging and have therefore stagnated our country.

    Put succinctly,apart from the narrow perspective of the possibility of steady supply of refined petroleum products in Nigeria to ease the pains suffered by the hapless masses that have been enduring endless search for petrol in retail stations that could last for days and even weeks staying on queues to purchase the commodity which is the prism from which most analysts have been considering the arrival of Dangote refinery on the Nigerian and indeed African oil/gas landscape: the focus of this essay is on the all encompassing impact of Dangote refinery and petrochemicals plant on the economic,social and political environment in Nigeria and indeed the continent of Africa.

    To drive my point home,l intend to put into array,how Dangote refinery and petrochemicals plant can be linked to the improvement of social,economic and political fortunes of Nigeria and Africa as a whole.

    But before doing that,l would like to crave the indulgence of readers to allow me first of all dwell on how the other positive factors which the crude oil refining behemoth could engender, appear to have eluded some of those in the corridors of power.

    Apparently,apart from members of the public,a lot of government officials were also ignorant of the intention of the Buhari government to fall back on Dangote refinery to make up for the lack of products from the four (4) government owned refineries built in the mid 1980s under the watch of president Buhari in his first incarnation as military head of state 1984-85.

    The refineries located in Portharcourt, Rivers state ,Warri, Delta state and kaduna, Kaduna state have been out of production for at least a decade.

    That is despite the billions of naira that have been invested in multiple turn-around maintenance,TAM over the years, including an ongoing turnaround maintenance procedure in both Portharcourt and Warri refineries.

    Soon, the Port harcourt and Warri refineries undergoing refurbishment would be in operational condition and given that government really has no business being in petrol refining business,it is expected that they would be farmed out as concession to private sector operators or sold outright as president Olusegun Obasanjo had done in the twilight of his administration in 2007 by selling the Portharcourt refinery incidentally to Dangote group but the sale was rescinded by his successor.

    Since it is the unproductiveness of the aforementioned refineries arising from the mismatch of applying civil service bureaucracy and mentality of inefficiency in operation of petroleum processing and distribution that should be driven by the ethos of efficiency intrinsic in the private sector; is the reason that our country has been importing petroleum products from European,Indian and South American based refineries to meet its needs.

    And it is a situation that has been made worse since 2017 when the importation of Premium Motor Spirit,PMS and kerosene became the exclusive preserve of NNPC ltd,making it a monopoly and thus inflicting associated negative effects on the economy.

    But with the arrival of Dangote refinery in the petroleum in the down stream sector,it is envisaged that the NNPC Ltd monopoly would be broken as the distribution of petroleum products would become open to all Nigerian entrepreneurs that are interested and have capacity to engage in the business as they would no longer be any need to import refined petroleum products.

    ln fact it is the position of CBN governor Emefiele that the import bill of Nigeria for petroleum and fertilizer is in the range of $26 billion dollars annually.

    Hopefully,with the advent of Dangote refinery and petrochemicals plant,the high cost of foreign imports of petrol and fertilizer would be drastically reduced as most of our needs for those commodities would be met locally.

    If that becomes the case,then multiple medium and small scale entrepreneurs that abound in our country and are yet to attain their full potentials would be unleashed and their activities would boost the economy in terms of GDP and GNP.

    As elementary economics teaches ,it is small and medium scale entrepreneurs that are the backbone of most economies of the world.

    For that reason the authorities should harness the benefits inherent in the engagement of SMEs as the backbone of prosperous economies by enabling them engage in oil/gas trade when the monopolistic role of NNPC Ltd in the importation of petrol is discontinued.

    It is gratifying that the emergence of Dangote refinery which is in-country would fill the gap by putting an end to the stranglehold of NNPC ltd on refined petrol importation and distribution.

    So,just as fast consumer goods manufacturing corporations like Lever Brothers,Coca-Cola,PZ Cussons,Flour Mills of Nigeria,Dangote Cement etc appoint distributors to take their products to the last mile,Nigerian entrepreneurs can procure petroleum products PMS,DPK, Aviation fuel ,AGO and other derivatives from Dangote refinery for retail to all Nigerians down the value chain.

    Clearly,the strength of the emergence of Dangote refinery and petrochemical plant lies in the fact its positive effect extends far wider than being a game changer only in the petroleum market because it has the capacity to impact the entire economy of Nigeria and even Africa as a whole.

    But the likes of Finance minister Mrs Zainab Ahmed for instance did not see the advent of the first privately owned major crude oil refinery (Dangote) as a panacea since it is poised to be a mere counterforce to the impending petrol subsidy removal as it would at least guarantee adequate and regular supply of petrol in our country.

    Hence the minister was focused on the disbursement of the $800 million loan from the world Bank to the federal government which she said is being targeted at providing palliatives that would serve as cushion to the poorest of the poor in Nigeria against the negative effects of petrol subsidy removal.

    Beyond the nebulous social safety schemes for the poor that is fraught with fraud ,what should be celebrated is the welcome relief that petrol from Dangote refinery would soon be available to Nigerians,(when it goes into active production in the next couple of months) resulting in sufficient petroleum products being supplied into the market thereby saving the masses the hardships hitherto suffered while trying to find it.

    A cost/ benefit analysis reveals that with Nigeria having a functioning in-country privately owned refinery,the shipping and other costs such as logistics and storage of refined products incurred and which are usually passed to the consumers when the commodity is imported from abroad would be saved.

    And that is where the direct benefits ends.

    The rest is indirect benefit to the economy since the coming on stream of Dangote refinery does not mean that petrol pump price would drop in any significant way even if subsidy is not removed.

    It is a point that was emphasized by Mr Melee Kyari,the Chief Executive Office ,CEO of Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd in his speech at the Dangote refinery launch last Monday 22 May.

    And as the CBN governor Emefiele also emphasized,only about 20% of the cost of petroleum products may be saved arising from the fact that there will be no need to store products and engage in other logistics activities which is currently part of the cost dynamics of petrol import and distribution in our country.

    Going back to the linkage between Dangote refinery and the social , economic and political well being of citizens of our country and Africans as a whole,it is trite to restate the fact that with the refinery coming into the energy security mix,refined petroleum products would be available on a steady stream of supply and the misery of pinning away in search of the product which had become a perennial experience for Nigerians would be consigned to the dustbin of history.

    During the last petrol scarcity in the last quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year ,it may be recalled that a viral video of a lady who due to the frustration of not finding PMS to purchase went berserk in a petrol station in ikoyi where she stripped herself naked after alighting from her car and getting hysterical. That video trended heavily in the social media.

    Avoidance or prevention of the reoccurrence of such situation which would be made possible via sufficient supply of petrol from Dangote refinery is by implication one of the positive social impact and linkages to society.

    So also would our crude oil that is sometimes stranded in the international market when sometimes we are faced with the challenge of lack of buyers as reflected by a country such as the USA that has been a traditional buyer of petroleum from our country currently pivoting to or patronizing other sources of energy.

    Going forward a significant volume of our crude oil would be processed by Dangote refinery which has the capacity for processing enough volume to meet our local demand and also export as refined products, not crude oil which has hitherto been the case.

    As such meeting our OPEC quota would no more be such a constraint when our crude oil production is ramped up in the new era as enunciated in Renewed Hope 2023 manifesto of the incoming administration.

    On top of the benefit of exporting refined petroleum products to earn more foreign exchange ,it is envisaged that the gigantic industrial complex located smack in the heart of Ibeju-Lekki,Lagos state capitals covering an area said to be seven (7) times the size of Victoria island, would create a humongous number of direct jobs at least during the initial stages numbering up to 100,000.

    According to sources within the refinery,about 10,000 has already been generated during the construction stages. More would be created through the value chain of distributors that it would attract thereby reducing unemployment in the country currently at an alarming rate of 41%. It is also in a position to boost the aggregate Gross Domestic Product,GDP of our country presently at N51.24 trillion and growing at 2.3% according to statistics from National Bureau of Statics,NBS

    It is a no brainer to also state that the presence of Dangote refinery would also lead to prosperity and well being of Nigerians currently mired in poverty more than at any other time in the history of our country ,except during the civil war,1967-70 due mainly to the foolhardiness of applying more than our country earns as oil revenue on subsidy for petrol.
    That to me is the economic content and linkage that Dangote refinery would be bringing to the table.

    Furthermore,the presence of additional people in employment in Nigeria would enable our country free itself from being the poverty capital of the world which is an unenviable title that it inherited from lndia a couple of years ago.

    As studies have proven,when citizens are productively engaged and prosperous,the type of ethnic and religious differences currently tugging at the heart of Nigeria’s unity would diminish.

    And Dangote refinery and petrol chemicals plant is being touted as being able to create as many as 300,000 jobs when it is fully on stream.

    That implies that as a result of being enmeshed in work provided by industries such as the ones springing forth from the birth of Dangote refinery,the number of Nigerians that would be seeing each other from the lenses of tongue,creed and faith which breed hate that has been the trigger for the conflicts and crisis bedeviling our beloved country, would be drastically reduced.

    So,reducing or eliminating ethnic supremacy or dichotomy and the resultant strife are the gains from political angle arising from the presence of Dangote refinery in our country.

    By and large,Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals plant is poised to be an omnibus of sorts that would give birth to multiple endeavors including packaging materials which would be revealed sooner or later

    Just as l was wrapping up this article ,l received from a friend a social media post which goes thus:
    “Dangote came into sugar production and the price never come down, today a bag of sugar is #41,000.

    “Dangote came into cement production and the price never come down, today a bag of cement ranges from #4,500 to #5,500.

    Dangote came into noodles and spaghetti production and the prices of noodles and spaghetti never come down, today the price of 1 (pack) of noodles rose from #30 to #120 and price of 1 spaghetti rose from #60 to #600.

    “Now same Dangote is now into refinery and (u) you are jubilating that the prices of petroleum products will come down.

    May almighty God continue to bless this country.”

    As is typical in our country, there are bound to be naysayers or skeptics who question change. And l hasten to point out that it is well within their rights to so do.

    Below is my response to cynical comment above : Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals plant is envisaged to create 100,000 jobs in Nigeria which would result in prosperity for that number of people and their families.

    It would also boost the Gross Domestic Product,GDP and Gross National Product,GNP of our country due to the number of Small and Medium Scale Enterprises,SMEs that would be engaged in distributing and using the by-products from the refinery to create other goods such as plastics etc even as it would also stop our country from exporting capital abroad to the tune of about $26 trillion estimated to be expended in the importation of petrol and fertilizer annually based on CBN sources.

    And on top of that our country would also earn foreign exchange from other countries particularly our neighbors that would be importing petrol from Nigeria as opposed to the smuggling of petroleum products from Nigeria to their countries which is having negative impart on the economy of our beloved country. A rough estimate is that there may be inflow of at least $3 billion at the initial stage from the sale of refined petrol from Dangote refinery.

    The same friend also forwarded to me a twitter post on the same Dangote refinery issue that l presume is from the verified handle of the renown newspaper columnist and former aide on digital media to former president Goodluck Jonathan , Mr Reno Omokri.
    It goes thus:

    Below is my response to my friend:

    Nigeria needs beer and petrol manufacturers.They both serve different purposes in the life of our people.

    And we need more Aliko Dangotes and Samad Rabius to create more Africa-centric behemoths in other critical sectors such as agriculture/food production to enable Nigerians enjoy food security and also provide raw materials for multiple industries and facilitate production of medications/drugs in industries such as pharmaceutical firms amongst others.

    For instance, the Nasarawa-Benue states axis in the north central region of Nigeria in my view is the citrus belt equivalent to what obtains in the state of Florida in the United States of America,USA from where most of the citrus in that country is produced.

    Just like Dangote Refinery and Rabiu’s refinery-when it comes onboard,Nigeria is looking and waiting for more of such mega entrepreneurs to take the bull by the horns and venture into producing what we consume in our country and continent and wean our selves of dependence on Europe,Asia and north North America.

    Also let us not forget that the financial services sector such as banking is dominated by southerners such as Mr Jim Ovia of zenith bank,Mr Segun Agbaje of GTBank,Mr Tony Elumelu of UBA ,Mr Herbert Wigwe and Mr Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede of Access bank to mention just a few that own and run very successful banks with tentacles spread across the continent of Africa.

    So,in my view there is no basis for berating members of one tribe or the other for investing in one area of business or the other.

    We operate a free market economy in Nigeria which is unlike government where bureaucrats determine who goes where.

    That is basically because in the private sector ,market forces dictate how entrepreneurs play in them.

    The idiomatic expression of lgbos below illustrates my point poignantly:

    Egbe belu, ugo ebelu. Onye si ibe ya ebene nku kwa ya.

    Loosely translated to English language as:

    Let the eagle fly and perch let the kite do the same.

    Anyone of the birds that tries to prevent the other from flying and perching ,may it have its wings broken.

    Finally,my take away from the gigantic step taken by Africa’s richest man Aliko Dangote in setting up the world’s biggest single train refinery in Lagos,Nigeria is that there is hope for Nigeria to overcome food and energy insecurity currently wracking it.

    If we have more entrepreneurs with Dangote’s type of appetite for risk taking-that would engage in a leap of faith by taking big stakes in producing what we consume from the vast array of land and natural resources that abound in our country,Nigeria would join the comity of industrial and prosperous countries sooner than can be imagined.

    In fact ,Chairman Aliko Dangote’s giant strides in that respect can be taken as proof of concept other entrepreneurs.

    Now,ahead of Dangote group,former president Olusegun Obasanjo,OBJ, soon after exiting office as military head of state had a similar mindset by founding Obasanjo Farms in 1979 which is some four (4) and half (1/2) decades ago.

    But it suffered set backs and failed to flourish perhaps owing to the fact that it did not enjoy government support as well as patronage in the way that Dangote refinery is presently making waves simply because the authorities see its as its rescue from and insurance against energy and food insecurity that has been bedeviling our Nigeria.

    That is without discounting the fact that Dangote Petrol and Petrochemical plant promoter, Alh.Aliko Dangote has a formidable track record of being a very business savvy entrepreneur.

    Another major attempt by President Obasanjo to industrialize Nigeria through entrepreneurship was when under his watch in 2004, he floated the concept of Transnational Corporation of Nigeria,Transcorp. It is a private sector driven platform promoted by government with stakes allotted to wealthy Nigerian entrepreneurs with the goal of getting them to explore priority sectors of the economy including hospitality,oil and gas as well strategic infrastructure for investment.

    It was coordinated by Mrs Ndi-Okereke Onyuike former Chief Executive Officer,CEO of Nigeria Stock Exchange,NSE.

    And it was modeled after South Korean Chaebol concept which was very successful as it is the origin of prosperous corporations such as Samsung, Hyundai,SKG as well as LG etc which are family owned conglomerates that dominate South Korean economy.

    Transcorp,although not family arrangement which South Korean Chaebols are,is a government set up with private sector flair that had not fully attained maturity before OBJ’s presidency ended.

    So,while the interest of most of the original stake holders waned,that of Mr Tony Elumelu waxed stronger. And it is the reason that he currently controls Transcorp and most of the founding investors exited.

    A close study of the origins of Chairman of Dangote group,Aliko Dangote’s entrepreneurial trajectory or antecedents would reveal that seeking new frontiers to conquer is part of his DNA.

    The assertion above is backed up by records that indicate that the journey into setting up the Dangote refinery commenced after his purchase of two brown field refineries from government under OBJ’s watch (2006/7 that was reversed by the regime that succeeded OBJ.

    And he had to,so to speak,get the disappointment out of his chest by getting even with the authorities by establishing the biggest single train refinery in the world which has just been commissioned, some fifteen (15) years after he got cross with or was literally pissed off by government.

    I am aware that he was also spurned by government when he bided to purchase Peugeot automobile assembly plant in kaduna from Assets Management Corporation of Nigeria,AMCON.

    Again,he did not only just get upset,he literally got even by going to France to obtain Peugeot franchise with which he has recently set up his own automobile assembly plant in kaduna close to the location of the Peugeot plant that he was denied opportunity to purchase and it is named Dangote Peugeot.

    Having scaled the refinery huddle by getting it commissioned on Monday 22 May,it is being expected that the Dangote Peugeot automobile plant that had long been fully installed and ready to start rolling vehicles off its conveyor belt would be commissioned and thereafter go into operation very soon.

    Following the same trend,perhaps the federal government should put up the railways for sale so that Alh.Dangote would express interest and government would then renege,so that the serial investor would once again be fired up to set up his own railway service.

    Seriously, my gut feeling based on a trend analysis of Dangote’s investment record is that such disappointment may inspire Africa’s richest man who based on experience believes nothing is impossible to set up a parallel railway service in Nigeria.

    Should Dangote railway materialize ,it would have a seismic effect on Nigerian socioeconomic landscape as it would accelerate our country’s much sought industrialization.

    In conclusion,digging into the investment mogul Dangote’s past,it reveals the fact that prior to his current foray into the world of crude oil refining,he had been playing in the commodities sector.
    He first started by importing and distributing sugar,salt,pasta ,rice and cement.

    Thereafter,he expanded into producing all the commodities locally and around the harbor in Lagos before setting up the largest cement factory in Nigeria-Dangote Cement located in Obajana,kogi state.

    Today,he dominates the cement industry by branching out to fourteen (14) African countries after overtaking the former leaders in the industry in Nigeria such as Lafarge and flour Mills etc.

    My guess is that it was after that conquest that he decided to make a foray into fertilizer production and crude oil/petrol chemicals refining business which he has as usual,and by all indications, taken by storm.

    Presently,Dangote group is dominating in the fertilizer market which is a space where multiple large,medium and small operators abound. And have entered the crude oil processing sector with the commissioning of the Ibeju/Lekki plant,the group has also taken pre-eminence.

    As part of natural progression,perhaps the world of liquified natural gas which Nigeria has in abundance,even much more than crude oil,would be a new area of fascination for the boundless industrialist,Aliko Dangote who is constantly seeking new grounds to break.

    The justification for urging our entrepreneurs to venture into the world of gas gathering is underscored by the fact that our country currently flairs the commodity which is highly in demand in Europe and around the world due to the incidence of ostracizing Russia the erstwhile Europe’s largest supplier of the commodity following its invasion of Ukraine in February last year.

    An evolving trend which l am still trying to figure out whether it is by design or a mere happenstance is that it is the sectors or businesses that government has failed to sustain or divested from that Dangote group has been slowly but surely and successfully filling the void by investing heavily in the industry .

    The assertion above is buttressed by the fact that it is usually when government-federal or states- investments in cement factories started faltering that Dangote either started setting up greenfield or buying up poorly performing brownfield cement factories.

    Likewise when fertilizer firms funded by government started wobbling or folding up, Dangote group invested massively in the sector by setting up its own greenfield plant until it gained dominance.

    Similarly,when the last automobile assembly plant-Peugeot in which government had control by virtue of its being under the management of AMCON was wobbling , Dangote attempted to buy it up.
    When it did not succeed,it decided to set up its own greenfield automobile assembly plant -Dangote Peugeot.

    The unique and curious trend came into full circle when it dawned on me after a keen observation that it is only after its purchase of NNPC refinery was cancelled that Dangote group took the initiative of making the colossal investment of $18.5 billion in the Lagos based refinery and petrochemicals plant that he started constructing since 2017.

    What the pattern described above suggests to me is that Dangote group is wittingly or unwittingly moving into areas from which government is withdrawing voluntarily or due to market forces and it has so far done so successfully.

    So basically, it seems like the Dangote group is practically standing in the gap for government as it has been moving into the spaces exited by government thereby fulfilling the principle or dictum: government has no business in business.

    To the best of my knowledge,the strategy, assuming it is by design and not a mere happenstance,is really not unique to Dangote group.

    Rather, it is basically similar to, but not the same strategy with Femi Otedala’s corporate raiding style of buying up shares of firms quoted on the stock exchange that are performing below par with a view to taking them over as validated by his actions in buying up the controlling shares in First Bank of Nigeria,FBN and doing same with Transcorp before selling the shares back at a huge premium to Elumelu.

    Finally,whether it is Dangote group or any other members of the billionaires club in Nigeria which Aliko Dangote led as chairman in providing succor for Nigerians in the wake of the COVID-17 pandemic in 2020 via a platform named CACOVID,it would be in the best interest of Nigeria and Nigerians that the gas sector becomes an area of massive investment of the size and dimension that Dangote group has made in the crude oil and petrochemicals refining sector.

    And harnessing the potential benefits that processing of gas offers should be a proposition in which the incoming administration must show more than a passing interest.

    As an affirmation of its declaration in its Renewed Hope 2023 manifesto to accelerate industrialization of Nigeria and boost employment for our teeming youths,as well as engender prosperity for the masses, it must do well to walk its talk by offering support to potential investors in gas gathering and its export in the manner that the outgoing government took the bold step of staking 20% in the $18.5 billion Alh.Aliko Dangote owned Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals plant that is poised to have multiple benefits to Nigerian economy and society at large.

     

    Magnus onyibe,an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
    To continue with this conversation,please visit www.magnum.ng

  • Tinubu: Likely first billionaire, private jet owner to occupy Aso Rock Villa – By Magnus Onyibe

    Tinubu: Likely first billionaire, private jet owner to occupy Aso Rock Villa – By Magnus Onyibe

    Of all the four (4) frontrunners for the presidency of Nigeria 2023, at least three (3) are established multibillionaires.

    These are Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC,Wazirin Atiku Abubakar of main opposition People Democratic Party,PDP,Mr Peter Obi of the Labor Party,LP.

    Dr Musa Kwakwanso of New Nigeria People Party,NNPP may actually be a multi billionaire,but he really does not identify as such simply because his politics is modeled after that of late Mallam Aminu Kano ,the leader of the talakawas – the poor masses.

    Mallam Aminu Kano (1920-1983) was a radical politician who dominated kano politics and known to have led a very frugal lifestyle and his famous devotees known as ‘talakawas’are the modern day equivalent of the ‘kwakwansias’ who are the followers of Dr Kwakwanso that gave him and NNPP nearly one (1) million votes in kano state alone, two (2) senators and seventeen (17) members of House of Representatives in the north during the just concluded 2023 general elections.

    While Tinubu and Atiku are owners of private jets,Obi claims he is averse to it and Kwakwanso ,owing to his radical lifestyle can not be associated with such luxury.

    It is interesting that wealth was not such a campaign issue during the campaigns.
    And that is probably because none of the frontline presidential candidates has not occupied public office so they did not want to risk throwing stones when they all live in glass houses.

    Expectedly,at the end of the race,only one person was declared the winner and it is the APC candidate Asiwaju Tinubu who garnered nearly nine (9)million votes nationwide,which is about 1.8 higher than his closest rival’s score, Wazirin Abubakar. As such he received the winner’s certificate from the electoral umpire, Independent National Electoral Commission,INEC in the wee hours of the 1st day of April which confers on him the title,president-elect.

    Arising from the above,for the first time in the annals of Nigeria,we are on the verge of having a multi billionaire ,private jet owner as president.

    So,when Asiwaju Tinubu gets sworn into office as president and commander in chief of the armed forces of Nigeria on 29 May, in more ways than one ,our country would appear to be shadowing events in the United States of America,USA whereby the 45th president Donald J Trump (2016-2020) was a private jet owner and billionaire.

    Since the adoption of American type presidential democracy in 1979 after practicing British constitutional monarchy type of democracy when the country attained independence from Britain in 1960,Nigeria has had as president,a school teacher Shehu Shagari,1979/1983, and an ex military dictator ,General Olusegun Obasanjo,OBJ, 1999-2007.

    After OBJ ,there were two (2) school teachers,President Umaru Yar’adua , 2007/2010 and immediate past president Goodluck Jonathan who have also presided over the affairs of our country.
    The current president Mohamadu Buhari, 2015/2023 is the second army general and ex military dictator and head of state to reincarnate as a democratically elected president of our country.

    That means that out of the five (5) presidents that have ruled over Nigeria in presidential style democracy,three (3)were school teachers and two (2) have been ex soldiers.

    And by the time president-elect Bola Tinubu is sworn into office as president on 29 May,he would be the first president that is a fully qualified chartered accountant with a formidable track record of private sector orientation to lead Nigeria.

    Would Tinubu’s business orientation be an asset and the possible game changer for our country to operate less as a bureaucracy and more business-like,since it would be the first time that a president who is highly literate in economics and very business savvy would be calling the shots from Aso Rock Villa ?

    My gut feeling is that the private sector would very likely find it easy to key into the policies of Asiwaju Tinubu’s government owing to his pedigree as a past major shareholder in the business world by virtue of having been the treasurer of Mobil oil in Nigeria.

    And the fact that he speaks the language of business would likely inspire confidence in business leaders locally and internationally which would motivate those that had exited our shores to relocate their business back into Nigeria and establish new ones as well.

    Such a development would boost our country’s Gross Domestic Product,GDP when more businesses are established as increased Foreign Direct Investment,FDI flow into Nigeria thereby creating employment,prosperity and ultimately fostering higher and better standards of living for the masses in our country.

    It may be recalled that in the heat of the campaigns before the party primaries conducted to select their flag bearers,at about this time last year,l noted in an article titled: “Thankfully, 2023 Presidential Hopefuls Are Literate In Economics” and published on 12th July 2022, that it was a good thing that all the front runners are literate in economics,so they would not need a master class to understand the language of business or identify good opportunities for a Public Private Partnership,PPP whenever the need arises.

    Below is how l made that projection about ten (10))months ago which remains relevant today as pulling our economy from the brinks of collapse must be the priority of the incoming president:
    “So,without further ado,it is pertinent that we get down to the brass tacks by shining the light on the private sector background of the likely candidates that would become president of Nigeria next year.

    “In any case,with the economy and security likely to occupy the left and center of the polit­ical debate when Independent National Elec­toral Commission,INEC,officially opens the space for campaigning on 28th September,Bola Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar who are thank­fully not economic illiterates would be going head-to-head.

    “Remarkably,the terrific and encouraging thing about the candidates is that both of the APC and PDP candidates,plus the LP candi­date Peter Obi can read the balance sheet be­cause they are all business savvy, having been private sector practitioners.”

    As predicted in the referenced article,today the trio are in the tribunal fighting for the heart and soul of our country as all the three are laying claim to the presidential mandate even if the elections umpire INEC had declared, Asiwaju Tinubu the winner of the contest and therefore president-elect.

    And the future of Nigeria that is already in a precarious situation could have been in worse jeopardy if someone as blind as the three (3) blind mice in the famous kindergarten fable and lullaby in terms of literacy in economics had become the president- elect of Nigeria at this critical point in time that the economy of our country is in dire straits,if not nearly comatose.

    Put in colloquial language,Nigeria could have literally jumped from frying pan into fire if it so happened that the three (3) of the front liners before 25 February polls who have private sector blood running in their veins were not the ones that the system threw up for one of them to clinch the ticket.

    As things currently stand,it is a good thing that the presidential pendulum that was swinging between the trio of Bola Tinubu,Atiku Abubakar or Peter Obi,from end of May last year to 28 February this year when the elections exercise ended,settled on former lagos state governor,Asiwaju Tinubu with Wazirin Atiku Abubakar and Mr Peter Obi being in that pecking order.
    So,in case the current push comes to a shove,Nigeria would still have a business savvy president to save the economy from total collapse.

    Without a doubt,right now,Nigeria needs an astute manager of her abundant but sub optimized human,material and financial capital to pull the economy and people back from economic peril that is looming as it has been dragged literally into a cliff hanger situation owing to a debt overhang estimated to be up to N77 trillion naira and debt servicing liability of about 96% of its income according to world bank statistics that the outgoing administration is leaving behind.

    Another ‘can’ as the Americans would put it that is being kicked down the road by the outgoing government for the in-coming government to deal with is the burden of removing the obnoxious petrol pump price that by some estimates the authorities have sunk funds in the region of $15 billion dollars in the past decade.

    It may be recalled that just last year alone , a whopping six (N6) trillion naira was budgeted for petrol subsidy and just for the half of this year alone(January to June ) three and half (N3.5) trillion was also appropriated as petrol subsidy in budget 2023.
    That is a total of nearly ten (N10) trillion naira sunk into subsidy for petrol in less than two(2) years in a country that the government is borrowing money from banks to pay salaries to civil servants.

    In the same category of what l would like to categorize as escapist tactics that reflect political spinelessness of the outgoing administration is the case of the naira that had been propped up in the past eight (8) years via Central Bank of Nigeria,CBN intervention policy of injecting billions of dollars into the Foreign Exchange,FX market resulting in trillions of naira being expended to defend the naira.

    Despite,the interventions,government exchange rate or lmport and Export , I&E window which was about N160 to $1 in 2015 had reached N450 to $1 by this time last year and it is currently N460.53 with the black/parallel market rate hovering around N747 to a dollar.

    Going by the rate at which the gap between CBN and black/parallel market rates is closing up since the dollar injection to defend the naira stopped ,it appears as if the the CBN may be left with no better option than to allow for the two (2)market rates to converge sooner than later.

    And should the matter continue to be out of the control of the CBN,since the Nigerian National Petroleum Company,NNPC currently a limited liability company that is about to be privatized is no more remitting crude oil income to the CBN which in turn is no longer able to intervene in the exchange market by pumping dollars into the system through multiple bureau de change outfits selling dollars to the highest bidders to shore up the value of the naira,our local currency may soon be exchanging at about N1000 to one United States dollar by this year’s end.

    That may be the reality that the new administration under president-elect Tinubu’s watch may have to deal with immediately upon assuming office, especially as the current governor of the apex bank,Mr Godwin Emefiele,highly stressed and distressed due to the enormity of the burden of managing Nigeria’s complex and complicated financial system has been reported in the media to be planning to go on study leave validating the rumor that he would be quitting his role with the curtain falling on the stage for the current government .

    Similarly,after the removal of petrol subsidy which is due next month,it is being predicted that the pump price of the commodity may also spike up to the region of N350-N500 per liter.

    The immediate consequence of the anticipated spikes in prices of Foreign Exchange and petrol that are essential services with high level impact on the masses would be that the inflation rate in our country that is currently 22.22% (which is a seventeen (17) years high based on National Bureau of Statistics,NBS report) could become double of the current level.
    And that would spell more misery for the critical masses of Nigerians of which over thirty (30m) million our compatriots are said to be living below poverty line.

    Given the doom and gloom picture of the economy and country that the incoming president would be inheriting,a faint hearted president-elect would have balked at the enormity of the challenges ahead.

    But the incoming president,Asiwaja Bola Ahmed Tinubu,also known as the Lion Of Bourdilon by his fans and foes alike is not a faint hearted leader.

    Evidence of his lion heartedness is reflected by his determination to throw his hat into the ring for the presidency despite all the odds stacked against him.
    With his famous quip: “emi lo kan” translated to English language as ‘it is my turn’,Mr Tinubu has been intentional about realizing his dream of becoming president of Nigeria,willy-nilly.

    Prior to this time,the president-elect had weathered an equally severe, if not more challenging storm when as lagos state governor, he was denied access to the federation account allocation amounting to billions that was supposed to accrue to the state monthly under the regime of ex President Olusegun Obasanjo,OBJ who withheld the funds on the ground that then governor Tinubu unilaterally created local government councils in the state which OBJ deemed as a breach of the 1999 constitution and he took it upon himself to sanction him and the state.

    Remarkably,it was while the state was being starved of funds by OBJ,as a survival strategy,effective collection of tax money from Lagosians to enable the governor keep government afloat became a necessity.

    Not withstanding the grim scenario of the economic,political and social turmoil that he would be inheriting from his predecessor as highlighted above,the president-elect appears to be poised to rise to the occasion by as it were taking the bull by the horn one more time, especially because he has passed through similar adversity in the past.

    That doggedness is reflected by the belief that Mr Tinubu might have already started tackling the gargantuan challenges even before receiving the baton from the outgoing president Mohammadu Buhari,hence he is currently in Europe on business drive.

    Arising from the above it is not surprising to his close watchers that after consulting with the National Working Committee, NWC of the ruling All Progressives Congress,APC on how to zone key positions to ranking senators and members elect that would drive the tenth (10th) national assembly,NASS,thinking that the bridge had been crossed,the president-elect Tinubu would jet out to Europe to woo investors back to Nigeria in order to move our ailing economy out of the current sick bay where it is located.

    But his jet had hardly soared into the sky on his way to Europe to tackle the next item on the agenda of his imminent presidency which apparently is the resuscitation of the economy before he was surprised by the rebellion within his party as the process of selecting NASS leadership has gone awry as it stirred up a nasty political storm.

    By all indications ,the political firestorm is already looking like it would be of the dimension reminiscent of the circumstances that led to the emergence of senator Bukola Saraki as the senate president in the 8th assembly (2015-2019) with the support of the opposition parties and to the chagrin of the ruling APC,leaders.

    Surely,the aftermath of the sharing of office amongst incoming lawmakers is clearly testing the capacity and ability of the president-elect Tinubu to manage internal crisis. But then again, as a two terms governor of Lagos state he had faced similar rebellion by lawmakers in the state assembly when he had a running battle with then deputy governor of the state,Mrs Kofoworaola Bucknor when his university of Chicago or Chicago state university degree certificate controversy reared its ugly head and the legislators were being primed to impeach him.

    At the end of the spat,he triumphed.
    It is expected that like he did in the past, he would deploy his trademark sagacity in politics to calm the storm that has erupted in the APC.

    But,it appears as if in the interim,going on a mission to consult with potential investors with a view to convincing them to put Nigeria in their investment radar, supersedes all other considerations for Asiwaju Tinubu.

    That perhaps explains why he seems to have put behind him the furore raised by the choice of the senators and members of House of Representatives that would steer the affairs of the lawmakers and left it for the party chairman,Senator Abdulahi Adamu and vice president-elect,Senator Kashim Shettima to resolve.

    In the interim,he seems to have elected to focus his energy on the next task which is how to take our sick economy out of the Intensive Care Unit,lCU where it is currently lying,more or less prostrate .

    That is what can be gleaned from president-elect Tinubu’s media handler Bayo Onanuga’s announcement of his principal’s mission to Europe earlier on the tenth (10th) day of this month is on business drive.

    So,in principle,the president-elect Tinubu’s current trip abroad is essentially aimed at reversing the ugly and alarming trend of dwindling foreign direct investment into our country which by some account has experienced about 80% drop.
    And he hopes to reverse the trend by persuading foreign investors that have fled from our clime due to inclement business environment in the past eight (8) years to return because a business savvy leader is about to mount the throne in Aso Rock Villa presidential seat of power.

    Clearly,reversing the relocation of businesses out of Nigeria and resuscitating the ones that have gone comatose would be the most efficacious panacea to the malaise of unemployment and the misfortune of economic stagnation besetting Nigerians.

    International Council For Investigative Reporting,ICIR analysis indicate that Nigeria has suffered eight (8) recessions since 1960.
    Two (2) of the economic recessions suffered in our country in 2016 and 2020 which is less than a space of five (5) years,were under outgoing president Buhari.

    And both phenomena have left the ugly trail of massive job loss,business atrophy and the dragging of more Nigerians into the poverty bracket and multidimensionally than any other Nigerian president.

    Also let us not forget the unprecedented migration of our youths abroad known as ‘japkpa’ a reverse of which President-elect Tinubu is probably desirous of and which he is trying to achieve by luring businesses back to Nigeria to create employment for our youths to stem the ‘jakpa’ syndrome.

    As the World Trade Organization,WTO Director General and former finance minister of Nigeria,Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala quipped during an interview on Arise tv,on the sidelines of the induction of the newly elected governors in Aso Rock Villa last Monday, ‘ kakpa’ is the reverse of ‘Jakpa’ which is reverse migration of our youths which can only happen when we rebuild our economy and free it from the current debt trap which she cautioned the new governors not to worsen.

    Invariably,it appears to me that it is the desire to save the economy and also have something tangible to show in the first 100 days in office that are the motivators for the president-elect Tinubu’s hurry to go to work and as the saying goes ‘hit the ground running’.
    That is justification for his embarkation on a trade drive in Europe even before officially receiving the baton of leadership from president Buhari which would only happen on 29 May which is still more or less two (2)weeks away,all things being equal.

    And his assignment abroad is not only to convince the investors that have fled Nigeria’s hostile business environment,it also includes wooing new entrepreneurs, particularly those in England who are seeking new frontiers to expand into in light of the fact that the country has recently decoupled itself from the 29 nations European Union,EU market via a phenomenon known as BREXIT.

    And what president-elect Tinubu’s trip overseas to seek investors suggests to me is that he has identified unemployment, which KPMG estimates to be about 41% as at last month,as a major bane of Nigerian economy which he has to tackle frontally.
    That is more so as unemployment is high amongst the youth demographics who some experts estimate to also constitute as high as sixty (60%) percent of the unemployed in our country.

    Given that our youths have become a powerful political force as evidenced by the critical and pivotal role that they played in elections 2023 which put in the front burner, a hitherto unknown quantity in politics,Peter Obi,the LP presidential flag bearer as a formidable contender ;it would be understandable why president-elect Tinubu has to prioritize getting our youths to be productively engaged in value creation through gainful employment for their prosperity and that of our country.

    And the current unprecedented unemployment level in our country stems from the massive exodus of corporations from our land owing to inclement business environment.
    As BusinessDay newspaper noted in one of its surveys,over fifty (50) corporations have exited Nigeria in just a space of about five (5) years.

    Also ,according to reporting by the Punch newspaper,the following firms that were based in Nigeria are reported to have specifically relocated to Ghana since 2015:
    Berec Batteries; Exide Batteries; Okin Biscuits; Osogbo Steel Rolling Mills; Nigeria Sugar Company; Bacita; Tate and Lyle Sugar Company; Matches Manufacturing Company, Ilorin; Nigeria Paper Mill Limited located in Jebba, Kwara State; Nigerian Newsprint Manufacturing Company Limited, Oku-Iboku.
    That is not forgetting tyre manufacturing firms- Dunlop and Michellin that also relocated their operations from Nigeria to our neighboring country Ghana .

    Apart from manufacturing firms,service based businesses such as international oil companies, IOCs-Chevron and Mobil from the United States of America,USA have sold their assets in Nigeria to local entrepreneurs like Seplat Energy,HEIRS etc ,just as ShopRite,a South Africa consumer goods retailer has also sold its chain of stores to Persianas,a local retailer owned by Mr Tayo Amusan,a multiple shopping malls owner.

    Airlines such as British airways,Emirates and lberia amongst others are either operating skeletal services or have also exited Nigeria citing lack of access to foreign exchange,insecurity and corruption as the reason for folding up their operations in our country.
    Even then,the airlines that are still in operations in our clime are only accepting payments for tickets in dollars which is one of the reasons there is so much pressure on the naira and its rapid devaluation.

    Given Asiwaju Tinubu’s private sector background,having been a treasurer with Mobil Nigeria and being a US trained accountant ,it is unsurprising that he would have a business mind set.

    That is an assertion that is validated by his focus on wooing back into Nigeria businesses that had taken flight out of our shores which has taken pre-eminence in his agenda to engender an economic rebirth in our beloved country.

    It is worth pointing out that the current trip is the second time that the president-elect Tinubu would be embarking on a retreat and confinement abroad ,since 1st of April when the Independent National Election Tribunal,INEC declared him the winner of the 25 February presidential contest.

    The first was when he traveled to France one week after the 18 March gubernatorial and state houses of assembly elections during which he was reported to have gone to recuperate from the stress arising from the grueling one hundred and eighty (180) days campaign period (September-February) that climaxed in victory for him.

    In my assessment,the strategic initiatives so far undertaken or addressed by the president-elect since he attained the status tend to suggest or point to the societal challenges that would be receiving his priority attention when he mounts the saddle of leadership in Aso Rock Villa in the next couple of weeks.

    While the date to end petrol subsidy has been set to happen in June as agreed in the Petroleum Industry Act,PIA,the devaluation of the naira has been ongoing slowly and surely to the extent that both the official and parallel market rates are looking like they would likely converge, if not before the incumbent administration exits,but sooner than later.

    A signpost to which direction Asiwaju Tinubu’s tenure as president would be heavily weighing in can be distilled from his two (2) terms tenure as governor of lagos state,during which he engaged heavily in a lot of collaboration with the private sector.

    And since practically all Nigerians admire the giant strides that lagos state had taken in terms of socioeconomic progress since 1999 that Mr Tinubu laid the foundation for development,it may not be difficult for Nigerians to key into his agenda.

    So,the president-elect Tinubu is likely to replicate his Lagos state template while serving in the central government.

    Now,skeptics and cynics may raise issues with regards to state capture which is a tendency that President-elect Tinubu has been accused of exhibiting without concrete proof since he has not been indicted or convicted by any court of law in Nigeria for corruption.

    And on that score,it behoves of civil society to be vigilant to see if such alleged perfidy can be tracked and established against him in the event that it happens when he steps into the office of the president and commander- in-chief of Nigeria on 29 of this month of May.

    Remarkably,becoming the president of Nigeria has by his own admission been the life long ambition of the president-elect Tinubu.
    So,it is likely that the entirety of his brain and brawn would be geared towards proving skeptics of his “emi lo kan“ mantra wrong by demonstrating to his critics that he is deserving of his victorious race for the presidency of Nigeria against all the odds stacked up against him as underscored by regional political calculus and permutations as well as the muck raked up against him to impede his long walk to Aso Rock Villa.

    As things currently stand,most Nigerians love lagos because of its mega city status of which president-elect Tinubu is a significant architect,so they are looking forward to lagos state type of economic transformation being replicated on a national scale.

    At this juncture,it is worthy to re-emphasize that president-elect Tinubu would be the first billionaire president of Nigeria as he would be moving into Aso Rock Villa with his private jet like the 45th president of the United States of America,USA Mr Donald Trump who is also the first billionaire president of the richest and most powerful country on planet earth in recent history.

    Would the president-elect retain his private jet during his stay in Aso Rock Villa or rely on the presidential fleet?
    During his campaign for the presidency, the out going President Buhari reportedly promised to convert presidential fleet into part of the national airline,which did not materialize.
    Asiwaju Tinubu has not made such a promise,but it would be interesting to see if he would as part of his personal sacrifice in this period that our economy is in dire straights, offer to excuse himself from using the presidential fleet until the economy improves and thus save the country of the enormous cost currently being incurred for maintaining and sustaining the presidential fleet.

    It is note worthy that the first modern day billionaire president rubbed off positively on the US economy because he was business friendly.
    Despite the honest mistake made by president Trump by understating and mismanaging the consequences of the worst human disaster and calamity to afflict mankind in our time ,COVID-19 pandemic,Nr Trump ranks as one of the more practical and impactful presidents of the US.

    That is so much so that even after being out of office for over three (3) years,Mr Trump is still a very consequential voice in his country and controls majority of Republican Party votes and remains attractive to nearly 50% of American electorate that voted for him 2019,hence he remains the front runner in the forthcoming 2024 presidential elections.

    Does Asiwaju Tinubu’s proven ability and capacity to unlock wealth as evidenced by the development footprints that he has left in lagos state imply that the days of businesses fleeing from Nigeria may be over and the era of economic boom may be looming in the horizon?

    Should one use the Transcorp Hilton hotel,Abuja whose rooms are currently sold out even as room rates are being hiked as a barometer and conclude that Abuja the seat of federal government power is already experiencing bustling activities even before Asiwaju Tinubu fully occupies Aso Rock Villa?

    Right now,the president-elect is already occupying the half way house known as Akinola Aguda house where he is currently lodged until 29 May when incumbent president Buhari would be yielding the baton of leadership to him and handing the keys to Aso Rock Villa to the president-elect ,Tinubu.

    The fact that Abuja is a already a beehive of activities suggests that there may not be a dull moment during Tinubu’s presidency from 29 May,all things being equal.

    Apparently, Nigeria and Nigerians can not wait to exhale.

    Magnus onyibe,an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
    To continue with this conversation, please visit www.magnum.ng

  • Judiciary on trial: Televising Tribunal proceedings to the rescue? – By Magnus Onyibe

    Judiciary on trial: Televising Tribunal proceedings to the rescue? – By Magnus Onyibe

    For too long,Nigeria and Nigerians have been choked by myriads of constraints and restraints put on them like a harness affixed on a horse to curtail its freedom enabling the rider to control it.

    And it is a pity that like a horse ,Nigeria appears to have been ridden by a rough rider instead of an expert jokey.

    That is why our country is literally on the verge of falling off the cliff-politically , economically and socially by way of disunity-after being ridden to the precipice by an apparent rough rider that has been on the saddle in the past eight (8)years.

    Clearly, as a democrat , president-elect Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s mission upon taking office on 29 May would significantly contrast with the style of governance of the current leadership at the centre.

    The assertion above is underscored by the comment that he made at the commissioning of court facilities constructed in Rivers state under the watch of the outgoing governor,Nyesom Wike in the state capital,Port Harcourt.

    It may be recalled that during a two (2) day visit by the incoming president Tinubu to the Niger delta state last last Thursday 4th May,he promised that his administration would fight corruption in the judiciary by providing judicial officers with improved remuneration,necessary tools and working environments needed to do their job such as the type of infrastructure that he was invited to commission in Rivers state.

    That would be in contrast with carrying out sting operations on members of the judiciary by arresting senior members of the bench in gestapo-like style in odd hours and also taking them into custody in their sleeping wears,all in the bid to intimidate and rob them of their independence from interference by the executive branch.

    In my view,a paradigm shift in anti corruption fight that would address the root cause of the malaise would give Nigeria a new lease of life and make our country a truly democratic nation as opposed to the somewhat pseudo-democracy which by all indications and measures is currently in operation in our beloved country.

    But President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s utterance in Port Harcourt on fighting corruption sounded like dejavu encore to me and l guess the same applies to most skeptical Nigerians because that is similar to what the outgoing president Mohammadu Buhari told the long suffering masses in 2015 when he was assuming the role of president and commander- in-chief of the armed forces of Nigeria.

    And to the chagrin,utter displeasure and disappointment of hapless Nigerians, corruption in our country according to global corruption watch dogs,particularly Transparency International,TI has worsened between 2015 and today.

    Data from Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Centre,CISLAC under the Chairmanship of Mr Musa (Rafsanjani) Auwal, Nigeria’s corruption ranking in the committee of nations in 2022 is 150th position out of 180 countries in the world corruption index.

    The only country in west Africa performing below Nigeria or more corrupt than Nigeria according to the graft monitoring organization,Tl is Guinea Bissau.

    Our country in a scale of 100, scored 26/100 in 2019, 25/100 in 2020 and 24/100 in 2021.
    That signifies continuous decline in Nigeria’s rating which is not good.

    And according to media reports referencing Transparency International, Tl chair,Delia Rubio:
    “Corruption has made our world a more dangerous place.

    “As governments have collectively failed to make progress against it, they fuel the current rise in violence and conflict – and endanger people everywhere.

    “The only way out is for states to do the hard work,rooting out corruption at all levels to ensure governments work for all people,not just an elite few.”

    After a clear eye look at Tinubu’s promise to combat corruption in the judiciary,it appears feasible that he may be able to slow down the menace during his reign as president because he is planning on tackling it from the angle of closing the loopholes for corruption created by inadequate remuneration for members of the judiciary which is one of the root causes of graft both in the judiciary and indeed the entire governmental system.

    So,my confidence in the ability of the president-elect Tinubu to implement the policy of pursuing a paradigm shift in the fight against corruption in the judiciary from the root and not the surface as the outgoing regime seem to have been doing is buoyed by the fact that since he has been a two (2) time governor of lagos state (1999-2007),he must understand what it means to make such a significant pronouncement.

    As such his proposition must be a product of critical thinking and not mere brain wave as Nigerians have witnessed in the past eight (8) years.

    Incidentally,reforms in the judiciary, particularly with respect to a better welfare package for the members of the judiciary are supposed to already be afoot as evidenced by the approval for increase in the remuneration of Supreme Court justices (N10m and N90m monthly for both the Chief Justice of Nigeria,CJN and President of the Appeal Court and other justices respectively) introduced by the outgoing administration of president Mohammadu Buhari,but it is yet to be implemented.

    The reality is that Nigerian judges are paid less than our law makers.
    Even as judges in Ghana and South Africa earn higher emoluments than their Nigerian counterparts, yet Nigeria is often touted as the giant of Africa.

    But the 40% across board increase in the salary of civil servants including members of the judiciary by the outgoing government at the centre is being envisaged as a moral and productivity booster as it is also geared towards reining in or discouraging corruption not just in the judiciary but the government system as a whole.

    Although,one is cognizant of the fact the pending petrol pump price increase following the end of petrol subsidy regime from next month as the current regime exits Aso Rock Villa would wipe out the value of the 40% salary increase just being implemented,for now the increase in salary effected last from month world give the long suffering workers succor before the president-elects takes office and decides what to do about petrol subsidy removal.

    In my view, petrol subsidy must end as planned and a 100% increase in salaries for workers across board would be a necessary first step to ameliorate the consequential effect.But that is a subject for another discourse.

    Meanwhile, although improvements in the remuneration of judicial officers had already been approved,but it remains unimplemented despite the fact that agitation for pay raise for justices has been ongoing since 2008 which is such a shame that such a critical sector has been neglected in the scheme of things for so long.

    That is perhaps what informed Asiwaju Tinubu’s promise in Port Harcourt and justification for his assertion about the proposed reforms aimed at stymying corruption in the judiciary under his watch from 29 day of this month,all things being equal.

    So,presumably,the in-coming president’s statement is likely not a frivolous utterance but a tactical component of his grand strategy detailed in his Renewed Hope 2023 manifesto which is an 88 page development template that he leveraged to woo Nigerian electorate to vote for him in the course of the just concluded electioneering campaigns.

    At inception of the outgoing administration,the third (3) branch of government (judiciary) had appeared like the last bastion as it had remained in large part untainted.

    But after a short period,it wilted owing to the onslaught by the executive arm through undue interference that has blighted it to the extent that most Nigerians no longer see it as infallible and unbiased.

    And it is precisely why the judiciary is now on ‘trial’ which is such an irony because it
    used to be law breakers that would be on trial by the judiciary.

    Arising from the above ,the president-elect is spot-on,on the score of planning to tackle corruption in the judiciary as part of his party’s plans towards renewing hope in our beleaguered nation.

    The truth and reality are that it is a pliant judiciary that enables or facilitates the emergence of unscrupulous politicians.

    Now,not many people can spot the uncanny link between the judiciary and politicians. But president- elect Tinubu seems to have made that connection hence he seemed to have given a sneak preview of his agenda when he gets sworn into office from 29 May.

    The nexus between the judiciary and legislators as well as politicians in general is reflected by the catch phrase currently dominating the political space ‘Go To Court’.

    The absurdity was given a new lease of life by the Independent National Electoral Commission,INEC chairman,Prof Mamoud Yakubu when he declined to respond to political party agents complaints about perceived improprieties identified during the collation of the results of the 25 February elections.

    Taunting aggrieved co-contestants for political office by daring them to go court is particularly the case in Nigeria where some unscrupulous political actors prefer not to campaign or woo the electorate,but deploy their financial war chests into ‘settling’ members of the bar and bench that help them obtain and maintain crooked mandates via courts as opposed to the electorate exercising their right to choose a president,senators,members of House of Assembly,HoRs,governors and state houses of assembly members.

    Since the return of multi party democracy in 1999,following former president Olusegun Obasanjo’s reign up to 2007 during which the rule of law was trampled upon and the principles of democracy were disregarded,it was acknowledged by subsequent decent political actors that election malfeasance had reached an alarming proportion in 2007.

    That realization prompted more democracy advocates in leadership to be more determined to reform the system and urgently too.

    So,it is the reform that was commenced in 2007 by the justice Lawal Uwais committee established by president Yar’adua of blessed memory (2007-10) and sustained by ex president Goodluck Jonathan’s regime (2010-15) that culminated into the Electoral Act 2022 passed into law under the watch of the outgoing government.

    At this juncture,it is worth pointing out that there are striking resemblances between the general elections conducted in Nigeria in 1979,2007 and 2023.

    In a manner that appears like dejavu encore to me,the current circumstances thrown up by elections 2023 may compel president-elect Tinubu to elect to replicate what late Umaru Yar’adua did in 2007 when his emergence as president midwifed during OBJ’s watch was alleged to have been tainted as is currently the case with Asiwaju Tinubu’s mandate in 2023, which is some sixteen (16) years after.
    And upon being sworn into office Yar’adua vowed to immediately embark on a reform of the process of recruiting political leaders.

    Asiwaju Tinubu in 2023 , like Yar’adua in 2007 who pledged to reform the electoral system is already pledging to end corruption in the judiciary through boosting their remuneration and providing a conducive working environment for them.

    That implies that there is a parallel between Yar’adua’s action in 2007 that vowed to improve on the electoral process and Tinubu in 2023 committing to eliminating corruption in the judiciary.

    Commendably,Yar’adua kept his promise by setting up the justice Lawal Uwais committee that laid the foundation for the electoral reforms that birthed previous reforms that culminated into Electoral Act 2022 currently in operation.

    Having made a similar commitment on May 4 in Portharcourt which is about twenty five (25)) days to his inauguration into office as president and commander-in -chief of the armed forces of Nigeria, hopefully, president- in-waiting Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu would fulfill his promise in the manner that Yar’adua did.

    A constitutional crisis similar to the instant one bordering on elections result also had arisen in 1979 when Chief Obafemi Awolowo of UPN disputed the victory awarded Alhaji Shehu Shagari of NPN and the issue of what constitutes 25% of 19 states of the federation became a protracted matter requiring Supreme Court intervention in the manner that 2/3 majority votes in the Federal Capital Territory, FCT is currently a point of contention in election 2023.

    Given the anxiety that it generated,it was not expected that our law makers would not have learnt some useful lessons and as such ensured that such type of complexity is avoided forty four (44) years after.

    One common denominator between president-elect Tinubu ,former presidents Yar’adua (2007 -2010), Goodluck Jonathan (2010-2015) and Shehu Shagari (1979-2003) is that they all introduced or tried to introduce reforms in the electoral system. They also tackled corruption in more scientific ways than through sheer brute force or naming and shaming methodology adopted by former dictators/ex heads of state turned democrats-generals Olusegun Obasanjo(1999-2007) and Mohammadu Buhari (2015-2023).

    Fortuitously,the president-elect Tinubu whose task would be to dig our beloved country out of the deep hole where it has currently sunken, all things bring equal has set the agenda by making one of his priority initiatives the restoration of confidence of Nigerians in the judiciary.

    And he would have to do so by sanitizing the judiciary which is the conscience of democracy and society if it is creditable,but can be instrumental to perpetuating bad governance or leadership,if it is corruptible.

    So,to birth a new Nigeria,first of all,the judiciary have to be cleaned up as it were.

    Right now ,most Nigerians would argue that it is the judicial institution without integrity that is constituting a drag on our country and inhibiting it from becoming the true leader of Africa and a very consequential country in the world.

    That is why the judiciary is currently on ‘trial’.

    I am of the conviction that if the judiciary that is fundamental to the recruitment of our political leaders in Nigeria is fixed or put on even keel,after its ‘trial’, then our country would be on the path to a rebirth as she would be positioned to be the true leader of Africa and also one of the leaders of the world.

    The critical role of Nigeria in the world order was recently acknowledged by the leader of the free world,USA President Joe Biden in his goodwill message to our country in the run up to the just concluded general elections.

    But to truly earn the global recognition and respect that President Biden and many other world leaders have identified and exhorted us to live up to,sanitizing the judiciary should be the task that must be accomplished by president-elect Tinubu after he gets sworn into office on 29 May,as substantive president of Nigeria,all things being equal.

    If that becomes one of Mr Tinubu’s main goal,as stated earlier,history may be repeating itself because reformation of the electoral system is exactly what Umaru Yar’adua of blessed memory embarked upon after he was swept into office in a gale of disputed election result as is the case in 2023 whereby the president-elect Tinubu is about to be propelled into office as President and Commander- In-Chief of the armed forces of Nigeria in similar circumstances.

    Without cleaning up the proverbial Augean stable which the judiciary seems to have become,whatever the incoming government does would be tantamount to building a house on a weak foundation.

    And the justification for the assertion above is derived from the reality that the aforementioned institution has been too malleable and susceptible to manipulation by political actors,hence our country has remained anchored on a shifty framework that has been hindering her from attaining her full potentials as the true leader of Africa in terms of being built on sound democratic principles and anchored on solid economic foundation.

    Universally,great countries (apart from communist China,Russia and North Korea and monarchies governed with religious dogma) emerge from having a robust judicial system with the rule of law embedded in its DNA. That is what would ensure the emergence of citizens that are driven by equity and justice that would ultimately produce leaders recruited through transparent,fair and free electioneering processes for egalitarian society.

    But the image of the judiciary has been worsted by a series of recent judgements that have befuddled Nigerians hence the third (3rd) branch of government has been in the eyes of the storm and on ‘trial’as it were.

    Readers would agree that it is an understatement to say that the recent judgements appear preposterous to ordinary Nigerians as they have been unable to discern the rationale for the decisions without the judiciary giving explanations on how it arrived at the very complicated and confusing decisions.

    In order words,Nigerians are distressed and frustrated because the aforementioned agency governing a critical aspect of their existence is in their view not living up to their expectations as their rather opaque decisions are not being explained to them in order to know why and how they made their seemingly odd and perplexing judgements.

    Hopefully,the final decision of the current election petition tribunals across the country in the process of resolving the disputes arising from the 25 February presidential and legislators elections and 18 March gubernatorial and state houses of assembly races would be very transparent.

    Based on the reality of lack of confidence besetting the judiciary in the court of public opinion,l urge our lordships in the temple of justice, particularly the tribunals hearing the presidential petitions to intentionally enlighten Nigerian masses on the steps taken and why in arriving at their decision.

    My point is that more robust communication between the judiciary and the electorate is critical at this point in time.

    As we all agree,extraordinary situations demand extraordinary solutions.

    Therefore,the approach of painstakingly explaining the reasoning behind their decision which would perhaps not ordinarily be the normal drill is required when they arrive at the decisions on the matters in which they are currently adjudicating in order to carry all Nigerians along and reduce the possibilities of misunderstanding of the intents and purposes of our learned tribunal panelists that could result in further strain in the relationship between the judiciary and the people.

    As the conventional wisdom goes,justice is not only supposed to be done,it also needs to be seen to have been done.

    Without a doubt ,with the tribunal justices going out of their way to carry Nigerians along by educating the masses on the principles applied in arriving at their judgement,the purpose of erasing any and every reasonable doubts,would be served.

    To most Nigerians,it was rather demoralizing and demotivating that the matter of who would become the political leaders of Nigeria is now at the behest of leaders in the temple of justice,not the masses as should have been the case.

    The resentment towards the judiciary by some Nigerians conveyed by the media which is the voice of the people elicited an incendiary media statement released recently by the spokesman of the Supreme Court ,Dr Festus Akande.

    He berated members of the fourth estate of the realm government (media) for daring to put judicial officers and the judiciary under trial as it were.

    In his view: “No Court in any clime is a Father Christmas; so,no one can get what he or she didn’t ask for.
    “Similarly, all matters are thoroughly analysed and considered based on their merits and not the faces that appear in courts or sentiments that attempt to becloud the sense of reasoning.

    “So,for anyone in his or her right frame of mind to insinuate that the justices have been bought over by some unknown and unseen persons is,to say the least, a bizarre expression of ignorance,which definitely has no place in law.
“We are not surprised with the surge of these well-orchestrated verbal assaults on judicial officers across the country at this period of elections”.

    As the apex court spokesman concluded , ‘it is a thing we are used to and are ever ready to absorb whatever comes our way; but there should be some level of decorum and dignity in what we say and do.
    “Politics should not be played without recourse to good conscience and acceptable moral conduct, as everything is evolving globally”.

    I would like to reiterate that a new Nigeria is possible if the judiciary after its current ‘trial’ ,becomes more open and welcoming to criticism by electing to drain the ‘swamp’ in which it is currently mired and a situation that going by pronouncements by its leaders in numerous workshops and seminars,it acknowledges and which is also recognized by president-elect Tinubu’s pledge to scrub the judicial institution clean of corruption via improved remuneration and other perks that would make malfeasance unattractive to members of the bench.

    Although,l do not have empirical evidence as to how Nigerians perceive the judiciary, it may not be far from the abysmal level of skepticism with which the masses currently view the elections umpire, Independent National Electoral Commission,INEC.

    And the likely low esteem of the judiciary in the eyes of Nigerian public stems from the recent and not too recent verdicts from our courts in landmark cases ranging from recent highly controversial judgements concerning governors and lawmakers who most Nigerians in frustration assume are induced either with money or coercion of power by state actors.

    And all the perceived malfeasance has been swirling around in the mass media and they are subject of gossips in drinking bars,hair dressing saloons and motor parks.

    It may be recalled that Mr Rotimi Amaechi who did not participate in campaigns and governorship election processes in Rivers state in 2007 ,which was according to INEC won by Mr Celestine Omehia,but whose victory got upturned by INEC in a manner that has left a lot of Nigerians still scratching their heads and even left bitter taste in the mouths of others.

    A similar judgement to the one in Rivers state reoccurred in lmo state in 2019 when judgement was given in favor of incumbent governor,Mr Hope Uzodinma who was adjudged to have come in the 4th position in the INEC declared result that got upturned by the courts when it stripped Mr Emeka lhiedioha of the title and position after he had been declared winner by the electoral body and sworn into office as the state governor.

    There are more similarly stunning decisions emanating from the courts in recent times. These are in respect of the emergence of senate president,Dr Ahmed Lawan as candidate for the senate even in the current election circle when he was also a contestant for the presidency at the same time and to some extent senator-elect Mr Godswill Akpabio who is currently the front runner to become senate president in the 10th assembly beginning next month,June.

    These two (2) very important personalities in the eyes of the ordinary Nigerians bought tickets and contested for the presidency in the same election season.
    In their simple logical thinking,the pair could not have also legally contested for senate seats,which is basically contrary to the provisions of electoral act 2022.

    Perhaps explanations about what informed the decision by the Supreme Court decisions to allow them be candidates for two elective posts in the same electing circle from Dr Akande could have cleared the fog.

    In the absence of the much needed clarity,those judgements riled up Nigerians to the extent that the reputation and credibility of the judiciary has further dipped hence the third (3rd) branch of government appear to be on trial in the court of public opinion.

    And it is all of the referenced presumed malfeasance that have been swirling around all over the mass media,thus further sullying the image of the judiciary.

    Although,l have a gut feeling that the courts may not be really culpable of malfeasance in giving some judgements that have turned out to be irksome to some Nigerians as highlighted above,the cynicism against the judiciary,as stated earlier may have its origin in the fact that it is not explaining its decisions to the Nigerian public in ways that they can understand the logic or jurisprudence behind the verdicts that they have been giving lately and which are obviously strange to most of us.

    So,the power of communications that oils the wheels of relationships between partners and even husband and wife may be the bane of the judiciary and the reason it is currently despised.

    As to be expected, in the absence of a robust communication strategy,the image or reputation of those who preside in the temple of justice have been dragged to the gutter level,and therefore abysmally sunken.

    Perhaps members of the judiciary have to read a poem written by the celebrated poet ,Prof Niyi Osundare about alleged criminal judges titled: My Lord, Tell Me Where To Keep Your Bribe” to come to terms with why the judiciary is on trial.

    If they are yet to read it,l have shared a snippet as presented below:

    “Do I drop it in your venerable chambers
    Or carry the heavy booty to your immaculate mansion.
    Shall I bury it in the capacious water tank
    In your well laundered backyard.
    Or will it breathe better in the septic tank.
    Since money can deodorize the smelliest crime.
    “Shall I haul it up the attic.
    Between the ceiling and your lofty roof.
    Or shall I conjure the walls to open up
    And swallow this sudden bounty from your honest labour.
    Shall I give a billion to each of your paramours….”.

    The poem which l have tagged ‘Poetic Justice’ goes on and on laying bare the foibles of alleged corrupt judges that are supposed to be incorruptible.

    The bottomline is that if a new leaf is turned for good in the judiciary after going through its trial in the court of public opinion by stymying corruption amongst its members as president-elect Tinubu is proposing ,a new Nigeria is possible.

    Now,let me make it clear at this juncture that the excerpt reproduced above is not meant to discredit or ridicule the judiciary.

    But it is aimed at calling the attention of the relevant department or officials to the sordid reputation that the institution has acquired,so that they can quickly find a way or ways to redeem the sunken image.

    The truth is that our country needs transformation and it must start from a critical branch of government such as the judiciary which for the sake of maintaining its independence must transform itself by itself not by the executive arm or the judiciary.

    In fact ,it is a compromised electoral and judicial system that would midwife the birth of executive and legislative actors that may pervert governance.

    That is why it is imperative that change starts from the baseline or maternity wards or delivery rooms for political actors which is election process that can only be midwifed by a robust and conscientious judiciary that is alive to its responsibilities by keeping in check potential excesses of the electoral umpire which is an agency of the executive branch.

    As media columnists/public policy analysts,we bear the burden of writing both scathing and endearing comments on both good and bad events or occurrences uplifting or afflicting our compatriots in the society.

    In the same manner,judges in the temple of justice give judgements that may be good and bad to the plaintiffs and defendants respectively,no matter whose ox is gored.

    But unlike media men and women,our lordships only face the wrath of the masses when they give judgements that appear to be opaque to them.

    And whenever their independence is threatened by the executive or legislative branches,the members of the fourth realm mobilize the masses to align with the judiciary to fend off its invaders.

    That was witnessed recently when judges got treated shabbily by being antagonized by the outgoing administration from around 2019.

    The media was also vocal in advocating for improved pay for Supreme Court justices when the issue came up via a leaked petition to the presidency and the outgoing authorities have approved but unfortunately failed to implement the raise in salary and other perks.

    But conversely ,the fourth realm of the estate which is the media is often a victim of the executive arm that chases its members down with state instruments of coercion,particularly by state governors who have caused a good number of journalists to be incarcerated or have their liberty withdrawn as it were for daring to pry into their affairs, even though they are public officers and accountable to the people.

    Similarly,the legislative branch is also sometimes hostile to the media as evidenced by the fact that it passes laws that are anti media.

    Take for instance the passing of the FoI act that was like passing the Camels head through a needles eye.

    Even then the act is hardly respected by all three arms of government that treat the media like a plague rather than ally in nation building that it truly is.

    So also are the anti-social media bills introduced during the 8th assembly by senators Ghali Na’aba,and an action that was repeated by senator Sani Musa in the 9th assembly,and both of which are believed by the media to have been meant to gag the press.
    But president Buhari distanced himself from the repressive laws following public outrage.

    On its part,the judiciary also often threaten members of the media with sanction as reflected by Dr Akande’s earlier referenced pungent press release.

    That is in-spite of the fact that the media is structured to be partners in nation building with all three branches of government,particularly the judiciary with which it should serve as society conscience.

    Worse of all,members of the public whose ox are gored also vent their spleen on members of the fourth realm of the estate who end up bearing the brunt of society in the course of trying to be watch dog on the other branches of government to curb their potential excesses.

    The unfortunate assassination via parcel bomb of ace journalist and Newswatch magazine co-founder,Mr Dele Giwa on October 19,1986 is a case in point.

    In the light of the above,it is unsurprising that one is currently facing threats of cyber attacks from radicals who are trolling me and threatening to hack into one’s phone to obtain contents which they intend to twist and present to the public in manners that one would be embarrassed.

    But,l am unperturbed and unfazed by such nefarious antics which would fall flat and definitely hunt and hurt their backers or those who they are backing when discerning members of the public see through the vile motives of the cyber bullies as sheer blackmail.

    As the saying goes,uneasy lies the head that wears the crown. That is an aphorism that encourages one from demurring from taking the responsibility of speaking truth to authorities.

    It is rather ironic that it is the seemingly innocuous shortcomings in the reformed electoral act 2022 that have now become the tipping point for the derailment of election 2023 process that was on track to becoming one of the best.

    And it is even more so because it is the granular details of the law which are supposed to have been clearly addressed in the course of reforming the former electoral law into Electoral Act 2022,but was left loose that is currently one of the thorny issues besetting election 2023.

    And owing to the failings of both the executive (lNEC organized elections in contention) and the legislative branches(drafters of the electoral act 2022 that failed to tie up loose ends), the judiciary is being left to literally clean up the mess, since the burden of untangling the legal complexities with a view to restoring peace and stability in the country has been thrust on it.

    The current elections difficulties echoe the constitutional dilemma that necessitated the introduction of the infamous Doctrine Of Necessity by NASS following the sudden death of president Umaru Yar’Adua in 2010 without handing over to then vice president Goodluck Jonathan and a constitutional lacuna arose.

    In deed,it is heart rendering that having suffered a similar constitutional crisis bordering on elections result in 1979 when Chief Obafemi Awolowo of UPN disputed the victory awarded Alhaji Shehu Shagari of NPN and the issue of what constitutes 25% of 19 states of the federation became a protracted matter requiring Supreme Court intervention,it was not expected that our law makers would not have learnt some useful lessons and as such ensured that such type of complexity is avoided. But forty four (44) years after, we are faced with the dilemma of debating if winning 2/3 majority of votes in the FCT is a precondition to be declared the winner of a presidential contest.

    In the light of the above,a new Nigeria is possible if president-elect Asiwaju Bola Tinubu upon being sworn into office as president from 29 May,would immediately commence working towards forging new policy directions that would prevent the judiciary from being corruption prone by implementing the salary raise approved by the outgoing administration which it has so far failed to actualize .

    The request by the PDP that the hearing be broadcast live is one way of carrying the electorate along as it may help the judiciary rescue itself from the black book of Nigerians. Without a scintilla of doubt,it would facilitate a buy-in by the masses if they see the decision of the tribunal as transparent,free and fair.

    In fact it would give the masses the kind of respite and confidence that the transmission of elections results from BVAS and IReV by INEC could have inspired amongst Nigerians if the electoral umpire did not renege on its lofty promise.

    The open broadcast of the proceedings on television and radio including even exploring a streaming option is necessary as it would amplify transparency in the administration of justice as opposed to the opaqueness exhibited by INEC which has tainted the outcome necessitating the intervention of the judiciary.

    The boast by presumed winners and INEC Chairman ,Prof Yakubu gives the impression that the declared victors may have special arrangements in the courts which they intend to leverage to secure victory. That may or may not be the case , but that is what is being passed across.

    To dispel the unedifying beliefs against the judiciary and evince the confidence of Nigerians in the electoral system after INEC Chairman frittered it away by not keeping to the promise to Nigerians that he would make the election process open and transparent by putting all the results from Bi-Mordal Accreditation and Verification System,BVAS on Independent Results Viewing Portal IReV potential defendants,the call by Wazirin Atiku Abubakar,former vice president and PDP presidential candidate for the transmission of the proceedings in the tribunal via television,radio and streaming may be a cure to the self inflicted and own goal committed by INEC at the end of an otherwise well conducted 25 February presidential and National Assembly elections exercise.

    Robbing Nigerians of that right to know what is going on during elections in real time via electronic transmission is what constitutes the bulk of the reasons that Nigerians resent the INEC.

    And it may be for similar reasons that the judiciary may be despised if the masses believe that their role as electors has been usurped by the courts that also denies them the opportunity of following events pertaining to resolving the dispute by the aspirants on real time basis via open broadcast of activities from the tribunal.

    Although it is not the making of the judiciary that they are being compelled to intervene,as the Supreme Court spokesperson,Dr Akande veritably pointed out in his media Intervention,it is imperative that the judiciary makes its interactions with the public more dynamic and robust.

    Otherwise,the judiciary risks being regarded and identified by the electorate as incubus/succubus which is a characterization that they have already made of INEC and the Central Bank of Nigeria,CBN which are the two (2) agencies of the executive branch of government whose combined policies literally raped Nigerians particularly in the months leading up to elections 2023 and afterwards.That much was captured in my article titled: “Elections 2023 And The Masses As Victims Of Incubus/Succubus Government “ published on Tuesday,18 April in my column and widely shared on other traditional and social media platforms.

    Arising from the above,my frank and candid advice to the judiciary is that it should take the request for live transmission via television, radio and streaming of the activities in the tribunals very seriously as it may be the game changer for the election 2023 that is looking like a cliff hanger situation .

    As we all know it has a precedence in the Justice Chukwudifu Oputa commission of enquiry created by president Olusegun Obasanjo in 1999 to investigate human rights violations between 1984 and 1999 that was televised for public viewing of the process and which conferred credibility on the outcome of the exercise.

    After all said and done,in my reckoning,the judiciary can make a new Nigeria happen by truly acting with the equanimity of lady justice,the iconic symbol of the judiciary that is blind to prejudices and biases.
    As the popular maxim goes: the ball is in the court of the judicial.

     

    Magnus onyibe,an entrepreneur, public policy analyst ,author,democracy advocate,development strategist,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos.
    To continue with this conversation, please visit www.magnum.ng

  • Mike Adenuga Jnr: The man who can give the moon – By Magnus Onyibe

    Mike Adenuga Jnr: The man who can give the moon – By Magnus Onyibe

    In the past one year or thereabouts , l have been trying to recover from the shock of the jaw dropping gift that l had received from Chief Mike Adenuga Jnr,who is one of Africa’s foremost entrepreneurs and one of Nigeria’s most illustrious sons, that for lack of a better nomenclature,l would like to also refer to as the ‘Philanthropist -General’ of our time.

    As he clocked seventy (70) years on Saturday, 29 April,2023,ceaseless tributes to the man of the people and of all times,have been flowing in torrents from all over the world and from all strata of society.

    They include those from very consequential leaders of strategic countries of the world,ranging from the president of our country,Nigeria,as well as current and past presidents of neighboring countries such as,republic of Ghana and Benin to the current prime minister of the second richest country in Europe,France as well as numerous employees of his business conglomerate spread across the African continent and beyond.

    It is remarkable that all the soul stirring tributes extolling the enthralling virtues of the most effable and humane man that l have ever come across are from both the high and mighty as well as the plebeians in Nigeria,African society and the world at large.

    Let us also keep in mind that there are legions of indigent folks who are not privileged to have access to mass media platforms to share their own stories that would melt the heart of even Lucifer himself,about how Chief Mike Adenuga Jnr’s uncommon philanthropic gestures have redefined their lives.

    That indicates that the GLOBACOM founder and chairman for whom the entire world is clinking glasses in celebration of his moving to the seventh (7th) floor of life (70th birthday),has a knack for touching lives from the top of the echelons of society to the bottom of the rung.

    So,in light of the above reality,it would be unwise or remiss of me to go on a rehash of the Globacom founders tough, instructive and inspiring journey to wealth which has been the subject of a handful
    of case studies in entrepreneurship conducted in a variety of institutions of higher learning across the world.

    All that need to be said about how Chief Adenuga Jnr did not ‘bury his talent’ a metaphor lifted from the holy Bible that Mr Segun Adeniyi,Thisday newspaper Editorial Board chairman leveraged to illustrate the entrepreneurial prowess of the man that many refer to as the ‘Spirit of Africa’, did justice to the tycoon’s accomplishments as a quintessential business and jobs creator .

    For those who may not be familiar with the bible narrative about the Talent,it is about how a wealthy man that gave his servants Talents (funds) when he was going on a long journey. While some of the servants invested their Talents and earned profit which they handed to their master upon his return,a particular one buried the talent allocated to him instead of generating more income with it.

    Disappointed in the servant that buried the Talent entrusted in his care,in anger the master took the Talent off him and gave it to the servants that multiplied their Talents through enterprise.

    Clearly,the analogy above is very apt because Chief Mike Adenuga Jnr has not only by dint of hard work multiplied the Talents allocated to him,a feat which has already been put on display in the effusive outpouring of encomiums on the man that personifies the concept of honest hard work and reward; he has also been a very generous giver to his compatriots in all spheres of life and all strata of society.

    Perhaps,his attitude of being a very cheerful giver is in fulfillment of the doctrine or mythology in Christendom that wealthy people are custodians of God given wealth which they are supposed to use to lift the less privileged.

    How many affluent people in the world have such a noble mindset ?

    In my reckoning,Chief Mike Adenuga is the type of man,who if he had the moon,can give it out in philanthropy to any man/woman who needs and deserves it,irrespective of tribe,tongue or creed.

    Hence in my tribute to the shy and at the same time bold like a bull wealth creator,who prefers not to be talked about-Chief Mike Adenuga Jnr ,l am concentrating on his somewhat understated acts of kindness and generosity to society as a whole and to individuals- both the affluent and indigent- in measures that appear to dwarf his financial wealth,even though he is stupendously rich.

    Ordinarily,what the wealthy are used to,or are required to give out in philanthropy is a fraction of their riches.

    But the myriads of testimonies about his large heartedness , the quantum of what Chief Adenuga gives and the burgeoning number of his benefactors appear to be so gargantuan,that it is difficult for some close followers of his philanthropic gestures not to assume that he gives his all.

    One unique thing about his giving is that it is not just to his family members or people with similar business interests who have potential values that he would harness in the future. But,as l found out,his humanitarianism is multifaceted and multidimensional because his mission/goal is to affect humanity positively without frills.

    That reality is underscored by the fact that if life serves a compatriot or even a fellow human being lemon,and Chief Adenuga is in a position to help,he would facilitate the process of the victim turning the lemon into lemonade.

    And there are multiplicity of instances that he played such roles especially in the lives of our compatriots in the sports and creative as well as performing arts worlds which are too numerous to be listed in this piece.

    As my good friend Bashorun Dele momodu,Thisday newspaper columnist and Ovation magazine publisher noted in his tribute to the business colossus and humble owner of GLO telecommunications and Conoil Producing,who also has significant stakes in major banking,real estate and construction concerns ,Chief Mike Adenuga Jnr, in just a space of one year; he was gifted two premium cars – Audi A8L and Range Rover worth eighty five (N85m) million naira amongst other goodies.

    Who does that for someone who is not his father or mother,siblings or business facilitators/collaborators?

    But as Mr Momodu pointed out in his well crafted exposé ,the generous gifts to him were sudden and surprising from the man whose birthday has got very significant tongues waxing lyrical in attestation to his Midas touch in business and also his being imbued with the spirit of kindness to give freely to fellow humans without strings attached.

    Although,l am convinced that the man known as The Bull by his friends and associates would be uncomfortable with the disclosure that l am about to make, because he is an ‘apostle’ of one hand giving without the other knowing; but l can not resist sharing with his millions of well wishers across the world,that l have also been a ‘victim’ of his out of this world ‘drop dead’ gifting.

    Imagine receiving a bank cheque with not just single,but multi digits figures on it amounting to a huge sum of money that would keep the mouth of many readers agape with incredulity!

    Add the fact that it was unsolicited,but an instinctive decision of my benefactor who has become legendary in his love for being his brother’s keeper,so it literally came out of the blues,then you can begin to have an idea of the reason that l confessed in the opening paragraph of this essay that l am still trying to recover from the positive effect of the pleasant surprise.

    And I was stunned by his fabulous gift because l am not a product of his loins,neither a sibling,nor a business associate or even an employee of the man that without equivocation,l would like to refer to as the most illustrious son and selfless giver that has ever come out of ijebuland,Nigeria,Africa and indeed the world.

    So,what manner of man is Chief Mike Adenuga Jnr, the consummate business Titan who can gift a man something as priceless as the moon?

    That is the optics with which most people that he has touched their lives through fabulous gifts,view the favors that he has doled out to them.

    In my modest understanding of life,only God gives freely without strings attached.

    The assertion above is underscored by the fact that it is only God that freely gives every living being,particularly humans air-the most critical element for the sustenance of life.

    It is also only God that makes the sun to shine upon and rain fall freely on Mother Earth to sustain those who believe in Him and those that do not,without discrimination.

    Indeed,it is a rare and unique display of humanity that Chief Mike Adenuga embodies such qualities associated with only human beings blessed with higher minds and not mere mortals.

    Strikingly,such godly values of freely giving and intentionally hiding his large heartedness from public glare is in adherence and consonance to God’s injunction in the holy Bible in Mathew 6:3: “But when you give to the poor and do acts of kindness,do not let your left hand know what your right hand is doing [give in complete secrecy]

    It is unsurprising that some benefactors have justifiably gushed about Chief Mike Adenuga Jnr’s fantastic acts of kindness and have therefore conceptualized him in the image of Angel Gabriel.

    Well,it is worth pointing out that angels often announce the gifts being conveyed from God to their benefactors,except on few occasions when there was a caveat for silence.
    Take for instance, the immaculate conception of Mary mother of Jesus Christ and wife of Joseph the carpenter whose tongues were tied until Jesus was birthed.

    But given that Chief Adenuga detests publicizing what l would like to characterize as his ‘do goodness’ through his intentional efforts at keeping his wondrous generosities outside the klieg lights,it may seem uncharitable that l am breaking the code of the left hand not knowing what the right hand is doing,while engaging in charity as enunciated in the holy Bible.

    While not being unmindful that l am in contravention of the philanthropist’s core value,ethos and guiding principle of giving in secrecy,l have taken solace in the fact that even when Jesus Christ,the son of God had instructed the ten (10) lepers that He had pronounced healing upon to go and show themselves to the priests,it was disappointing that only one returned to show gratitude to Jesus Christ,as narrated in the Bible book of Luke 17:11-19.

    That is why l have elected to acknowledge and celebrate the cheerful giver,Chief Mike Adenuga’s largesse to me,so that l would not be like the nine (9) lepers that failed to go back to their healer to show gratitude.

    So,while recognizing that l risk making the extremely shy,humble and enigmatic birthday celebrant a bit uncomfortable,l apologize for the indiscretion unreservedly.

    At the same time,l have rationalized my action by terming it ‘good offense’ in the manner that the American civil rights activist and member of House of Representatives,John Lewis of blessed memory,dignified dissent as ‘good trouble’ back in the days of the struggle for black voting rights activism in the United States of America,USA.

    In my reckoning,it is better l ‘offend’ a bit the extraordinarily benevolent giver in the mold of Santa Claus (Father Christmas) and mother Theresa combined,than act like the nine (9) healed lepers that failed to return to Jesus Christ to show gratitude, earlier referenced.

    Although,my action of spreading the unique and awe inspiring favors dolled out to a myriad of folks is in contravention of the rule of the man with the heart of God-as Chief Mike Adenuga may be equated to modern day David,whom God referred to as the man after His heart,according to the Bible narrative in Acts 13:22. But the philanthropist extraordinaire prefers to stick to the original injunction of God:give in complete secrecy.

    As things currently stand,it appears as if Chief Adenuga Jnr has no choice but to forgive his legion of friends and associates that have exposed his well guarded secret of doing good and keeping it under the radar.

    Put succinctly,one is encouraged by the fact that a deluge of beneficiaries comprising of thankful men/women of influence and indigent Nigerians alike,have also erred by breaking the humble and cheerful giver’s ‘code’ of being his brothers keeper without ado.

    Certainly,since as the saying goes: a gold fish has no hiding place,the culture of spreading the milk of kindness that Chief Mike Adenuga Jnr has obviously democratized by extending his compassion to both the needy and not so needy,no matter their tongue,tribe or creed,was bound to become an open secret,sooner or latter.

    It is against the backdrop of the human milk of kindness that has percolated from the top to the bottom of Nigerian society and indeed in Africa through sheer acts of charity via support for stakeholders in the sports,arts and culture space that the 70th birthday of the man that most of his admirers fondly refer to as Chairman- derived from the fact that he has founded and currently chairman of multiple firms that have attained the status of unicorns-has unsurprisingly triggered.

    Chief Mike Adenuga’s birthday has triggered so much emotions from Nigerians from all works of life with such great aplomb to the extent that folks hitherto known to be taciturn have voluntarily chosen to become voluble in sharing life changing experiences that the man of the moment and altruist has inspired or positively wrought on their lives.

    At this juncture,l would like to crave the indulgence of readers to allow me share how I was first introduced to the man whose 70th birthday has got millions of tongues wagging -no porn intended.

    I first met Chief Adenuga in 2003,two(2) decades ago when he was in the process of launching his game changing and wave making telecommunications firm, GLOBACOM.

    The meeting was facilitated by Hon.Nduka Irabor, journalist par excellence and ex member of National Assembly,NASS that represented lka federal constituency of Delta state.

    At that time,l was a manager in charge of corporate communications in the defunct Continental Trust Bank,CTB owned and managed by my friends and brothers,Mr Ike Nwabuoku and Mr Tony Elumelu amongst many other investors.

    I was interviewed for a job to head the corporate/ public communications department of the first indigenous GSM telephony firm founded and managed by my benefactor Chief Mike Adenuga Jnr which has now become the wave making GLO network that is the number two (2) network in Nigeria in terms of subscription.

    Despite being offered the job after the interview ,l opted to remain in CTB with my friends at a time that the bank was floundering under the yoke of the Central Bank of Nigeria,CBN sanction for foreign exchange, FX infractions.

    Being a loyalist and a man that can not jump from one ship to another in times of trouble,I tarried with the hope that the dire situation would be sorted out and the bank would be salvaged.

    But the ailing bank was not rescued.

    Instead,it got gobbled up by a rejuvenated Standard Trust Bank,STB that was being driven by Mr Elumelu who had exited CTB/MBCOM arrangement by deciding to tread a new path that culminated in his ultimate acquisition and turnaround of then ailing, United Bank for Africa,UBA which is currently amongst the five (5) top tier banks in Nigeria and changing the financial landscape of Africa.

    As the saying goes,the rest is history because l had to quit the job at CTB and after a short intervening period during which l was an entrepreneur having secured the franchise to be the exclusive partner with JVC electronics company of Japan for the importation and distribution of their products in Nigeria,l was lured back into banking by another friend,Mr Fidelis Tilije (currently commissioner for finance in delta state government) who was managing another up and coming,Fortune bank which is also currently defunct.

    But my sojourn in Fortune Bank was only for a short period before l was finally headhunted by my friend,brother and mentor in politics,Chief James lbori,then governor of Delta state who invited me to join his cabinet in his second term of office in 2003.

    The next time l was lucky to encounter my Chief Adenuga who has become a fairy godparent ,also fondly referred to as the GURU was with my new boss and brother ,Chief Ibori , then governor of delta state , at Heathrow airport,London, United Kingdom, UK.

    It is Chief lbori that helped deepen my closeness to the man whose businesses have empowered millions of humans not only in Nigeria,but across the African continent via provision of employment to many and as source of business to suppliers of sundry goods and services to the numerous firms in his conglomerate.

    And the business czar Chief Adenuga,who has the memory of an elephant that never forgets,(he remembers everything) which is why he has committed in his memory all those who have facilitated the favors that he has received in the course of managing his very private life that has seen him conceiving,birthing and nurturing his plethora of humanity touching and life changing business concerns that span the subregion of the African continent

    Despite my not working for him in his then emerging telecommunications firm,Chief Mike Adenuga Jnr’s GLO that has become a sort of telecommunications behemoth dominating African landscape with a strategic submarine cable, GLO 1 that renders services to other telecommunications services providers; l have been adopted as an ‘Aburo’ translated as younger brother in Yoruba parlance.

    It is a measure of the depth of the goodness of his heart that as he clocks the platinum age of 70 that the Good Samaritan is being saluted by a broad spectrum of Nigerians and indeed humanity,because his influence is not just local to Nigeria,not even only pan African,but it extends to Europe,the Americas,and perhaps less so in Asia.

    Over the past few years,l have had the privilege of being a guest in the numerous dinner parties that he has hosted in his palatial home: Bellisima On The Waterfront in Banana island, Lagos to welcome or send-forth a plethora of diplomats from all parts of the world to Nigeria.

    And by being in the company of Chairman Adenuga,l have had the privilege of my palates being treated to sumptuous seven (7) course meals and my taste buds have also been savoring fine liquors that can be as rare as forty (40) years old single malt whisky that costs as much as four (£4,000) thousand Uk pounds per bottle.

    That is not all,as I have also been opportune to sit at tables where the man with uncommon knowledge about our country’s evolution from cradle to the present socioeconomic and political situation,(yet remains very apolitical)has shared his fascinating and inspiring experiences in the course of his evolution from a young and restless undergraduate student in the United States of America,USA working hard to eek out a living by combining academics with being an entrepreneur at the same time.

    Apparently,these are traits he inherited from his parents-father who was a school teacher and mum that was a trader.

    By and large,it can be surmised that it is from his parents that he inherited the talents that have propelled him into becoming an institutional colossus that he is today.

    Did l mention that his palatial abode in Banana island,Lagos that occupies an entire close which is a expansive strip of water front property named: Bellisimo At The Waterfront is apart from having residences and offices ensconced in the private enclave,is complete with a magnificent chapel and a huge banquet hall?

    Amongst other accoutrements,the banquet hall features a stage for live shows and it is certainly the most exotic and the most purpose built banquet hall in a private home that l have seen in Nigeria.

    In my reckoning,lit is only the ball room in Mar-a-Lago,Palm Beach,Florida,USA resort /home of the 45th president of the USA,Mr Donald J Trump that surpasses the size and decor in Bellisimo At The Waterfront,Chief Adenuga’s manor.

    What else can one say about the man who has internalized God’s injunction: ‘whatsoever you do to the least of your brothers,that you do unto me’ (Mathew 25:40) than to give him a shout out on this auspicious occasion of his platinum birthday.

    Happy birthday to the Yoruba man also known by some of his friends who are lgbos as ‘Nnam Ukwu’ translated as my big boss in lgbo dialect.

    In Nigeria of today where ethnicity is occupying left and center as it has become a polarizing factor being weaponized by nefarious political actors,it speaks volumes about how detribalized Chief Mike Adenuga Jnr is .

    Chairman,please accept my Seventy (70) gun salutes in commemoration of this epochal occasion of your very significant birthday.

    The Bible tells us that God allocated three scores and ten (70) to us as humans on Mother Earth and by His grace you have attained and surpassed that age.

    My prayers is: may it please the almighty God to grant us the favor of being around to give you one hundred (100) gun salutes to mark your 100th birthday in thirty (30) years time before our time on earth is done.

     

    ONYIBE, an entrepreneur ,public policy analyst ,author, development strategist, democracy advocate,alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts university, Massachusetts,USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government,sent this piece from lagos.
    For continuation of the conversation,pls visit www. magnum.ng.

  • Post General Elections 2023 Conflicts, Peace And Hand of God – By Magnus Onyibe

    Post General Elections 2023 Conflicts, Peace And Hand of God – By Magnus Onyibe

    With the full circle of national and subnational general elections completed between 25 February and 18 March, and the political battle shifting to the elections tribunals,it is time to take stock of the tumultuous eight (8) years of the outgoing regime of President Mohammadu Buhari that has seen Nigerian ship of state sink very deep into the sea of poverty and anarchy.

    By so doing, we would be setting the agenda for president-elect Asiwaju Bola Tinubu who is poised to take over the reins of governance on 29 May which is barely a month away,all things being equal.

    Suddenly, but pleasantly, the tension which had been very palpable in the polity as a negative fall out of the end of 2023 general elections, seems to be abating.

    And it is being attributed to the convergence of both Easter which is a Christian rite of fasting in commemoration of the death and celebration of rise from the grave of our lord Jesus Christ the son of God in Christendom and the Ramadan which is a Muslim period of fasting for about a month as a way of seeking reconnection to Allah and showing of love to one another,particularly the wealthy to the poor amongst Islamic faithfuls.

    At the risk of being tagged a religionist, since l am sounding like one,l am of the conviction that it is not by mere happenstance that the two critical events that promote tolerance, forgiveness and peace in the calendar of Christians and Muslims would hold simultaneously or back-to-back in the month of April.
    Again, while Easter is an opportunity for Christians to humble themselves in grief by fasting in remembrance of the death of Jesus Christ and celebrating his subsequent rise from the grave ,Ramadan is one of the five pillars of Islam during which Muslim faithfuls engage in the sacrifice of also fasting to purify the soul,empathize with the less fortunate in society and strengthen family and community ties.

    Ultimately,a combination of both religious ceremonies that are geared towards religious rebirth or reconnection by faith adherents is a phenomenon that is desperately needed in Nigeria at this critical point in time that the outcome of the general elections was at a point threatening to cause a chasm in the polity.

    Hence it is believed that it is the hand of God at work in Nigeria that helped pacify the aggrieved Nigerians that were nursing or tending towards seeking redress outside the ambits of the law which is tantamount to promoting a breakdown of law and order.

    The justification for the assertion above is that a co- occurrence of both religious events which are under guarded by sobriety which presupposes calmness of spirit and personal self control immediately after the very contentious 2023 elections may be God’s way of fulfilling His intention to reset Nigeria for good.

    As we all are well aware ,the religious rites and ceremonies associated with the Christian and Muslim events actually compelled people of both faiths who constitute the largest population of Nigeria to observe penance via the sacrifice of fasting, which is the underpinning message and purpose for Christians and Muslims and why most Nigerians remained disciplined and sober.

    It is safe to conclude that had majority of folks not been observing the religious rituals of fasting,most aggrieved politicians and their thugs could have become unruly and disruptive in the aftermath of the controversial elections 2023 result.

    And the harmony of purpose intrinsic in both the Christian and Muslim ceremonies being held soon after the general elections organized between the months of February and March and April is not surprising.
    That is because Christianity and lslam are part of the three (3) Abrahamic religions birthed by the father of creation or first prophet of God-Abraham as chronicled in the holy Bible and the holy Quran.
    The third in the Abrahamic religions triumvirate is Judaism.

    Unsurprisingly,both Christian and Muslim leaders have been united in enjoining our political leaders and admonishing their followers to toe the path of forgiveness so that political stability would be restored and sustained to enable peace reign so that progress and development can take hold in our country.

    Without detracting from the assiduous and commendable efforts of the Directorate of State Security Services, DSS that has been working round the clock to ensure that potential crisis were nipped in the bud,it can not be denied that it is as a result of the efforts of Christian clergies and Islamic clerics,who are preaching peace and harmony in our country at the same time that has made it possible for frayed nerves to be calmed down and why our country seems to be on track to witness a peaceful transition of political power on 29 May from President Mohammadu Buhari (2015-2023) to President-elect Bola Tinubu (2023….)

    To encourage the incoming administration and also remind it not to be carried away by the euphoria of power of which it is on the cusp of receiving ,it is apropos that it is guided via a recollection of some of the avoidable pitfalls that defined the outgoing administration and the reason it would be ending its tenure with an inauspicious legacy.

    As it may be recalled,at inception,the outgoing administration started picking and choosing the court orders to obey or discountenance. The last of which is the naira redesign and Supreme Court order to allow both currencies to remain legal tender pari-pasu till the end of the year which most analysts aver was initially snubbed by the authorities until the past couple of weeks.

    It is also worth refreshing our memory about how the executive arm also elected to keep meddling in who became the leader of the legislature and head of the judiciary which are the two other arms of government that are ideally supposed to be separate from each other and which form the tripod with the executive as the third arm that serve as the bedrock of democracy.

    Under the outgoing regime ,the three arms of government that are designed to be independent of each other,which is the universal best practice and hallmark of democracy,has appeared in in the past eight (8) years to have blended into one, which is against the letter and spirit of democracy which is government of the people,by the people and for the people.

    That is because the lines separating the three (3) branches were intentionally being blurred through the meddlesome actions of the executive arm since 2015 when the ruling APC took control of Aso Rock Villa.

    The invasion of the other arms of government by the executive branch was witnessed in the epic battle to remove Senator Bukola Saraki who became senate president in 2015 contrary to the plans of the ruling party at the centre,APC resulting in bitter court battles including the Senate president Saraki being put in the dock in law court over allegations of being behind armed robbery.

    There was also the abrupt removal of Justice Walter Onoghen as Chief Justice of Nigeria,CJN under controversial circumstances just before the 2019 general elections.

    The sacking of the CJN was carried out after the judiciary was accused of being hostile to the executive arm and some judges ,including Supreme Court justices were arrested in an early morning sting operation by security agencies leading to some of them being taken into custody in their sleeping wears for allegedly being in possession of some foreign currencies that were found in their homes after a search by security operatives.

    By and large,apart from the unprecedented rise in the cost of living as reflected by the astronomical price of a pot of Jollof rice and a loaf of bread currently causing great agony to a critical mass of citizens,it is the violation of those democracy ethos that is the culprit in the setting off of the alarm bells in the minds of Nigerians that laid the foundation for the negative perception that has trailed the outgoing regime from inception to its fast approaching exit date of 29 May which is more or less in one month time.

    The encouraging news is that there would be a reversal of the obnoxious culture of trampling on the rule of law by the incoming administration as I have been reliably informed that under president-elect Bola Tinubu’s watch,such impunity or travesty of the rule of law would not be allowed to thrive.

    That is simply because the ex lagos state governor, Tinubu is a dye-in-wool democrat.

    So, as opposed to acting in the manner that past leaders like ex military dictators who later become leaders in democratic settings such as ex president Olusegun Obasanjo (1999-2007) and soon to be ex president Mohammadu Buhari (2015-2023) that discountenanced the ethos of democracy by not respecting the principle of rule of law and separation of power,which are the bulwark of democracy,the days of impunity that have so badly eroded democracy in our nation may be on track to becoming history to be read only in books and archives by our children and not to be witnessed anymore by our generation.

    That belief is underscored by the fact that the military orientation of the aforementioned past presidents of Nigeria contrasts with the pedigree of the APC national leader, and president-elect Bola Tinubu’s democracy credentials.

    And it is evidenced by his being the arrowhead for the struggle for the return of democracy in the country through National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) in the dark days of military rule in Nigeria,especially under the one nicknamed the googled one ,General Sani Abacha who was head of state of our beloved country from 1993-1998.

    It is on record that it is the battle for the return of democracy to Nigeria which finally manifested in 1999 and of which Asiwaju Tinubu was a prime executor that has helped to put him in the best position to help steer our country back to the path of true and liberal democracy that Nigerians have been craving.

    Also, in light of the experience gathered and the sagacity he exhibited during the struggle for the return of democracy,there are very likely chances that the president-elect Tinubu might have scooped the presidency in the 2023 general elections by deploying his widely acknowledged ingenuity of thinking critically ,planning rigorously and implementing meticulously towards accomplishing his quest for the presidency of which he has rich antecedents in swaying people to join min his cause.

    Although the non transparent manner in which the election results was finally collated and announced by the lndependent National Electoral Commission,INEC has cast some doubt on the veracity of the number of votes cast and garnered by the contestants and integrity of elections 2023,most Nigerians appear to have elected to eschew the dog-in-a-manger attitude which a vocal minority had adopted.

    The ensuing tranquil attitude highlighted above,needs to be emphasized as being owed to the good tidings issuing from the mouths of respected traditional,cultural and faith leaders in our country,to the effect that stakeholders should allow peace to prevail in the spirit of the current season of love being observed by both Christians and Muslims alike.

    Be that as it may,it is not for nothing that the President-elect,Tinubu had been branded one of Nigeria’s most outstanding political strategists of our time when he literally pulled the rabbit out of a hat through the pivotal role that he played in the emergence of president Buhari as the winner of the presidential election in 2015.

    The feat was performed after three (3) previous failed attempts by then presidential candidate Buhari under sundry political platforms before finally defeating then seating president Goodluck Jonathan on the fourth attempt after being aided by Mr Tinubu who was instrumental in the formation of the formidable APC which was widely seen as a party of strange bedfellows that has defied the logic of being expected to disintegrate owing to its runaway success and the differences in ethnic and regional agendas of the legacy parties.

    Apart from his significant role in returning Nigeria to democratic path in 1999, it may be recalled that the current president-elect,Tinubu had also dexterously masterminded the unprecedented feat of getting four (4) leading opposition political parties between 2013/14/15 (ACN,CPC, ANPP,APGA)to collapse into one mega political platform,All Progressives Congress,APC with the sole intent of dethroning then ruling Peoples Democratic Party,PDP.

    Such an incredible accomplishment of getting a coalition of opposition parties to go into an election as one party to win a common foe had never happened in the annals of Nigerian politics. Rather, it was often the case that after slugging it out at the polls, the various parties thereafter united to form unity government.

    As such,adroitness is considered to be one of the mettles that define’s President-elect Bola Tinubu and which foretells the type of positive developments in democratic governance that should be expected from the in-coming government from 29 May,when he takes over the reins of power,all things being equal.

    Understandably,owing to the tension that has been generated by the post elections rhetorics that border on samba rattling particularly from the likes of Mr Bayo Onanuga and my good friend,Femi Fani-Kayode(spokespersons for the president-elect) who have been accused of fanning the embers of tribal hate to the extent of rattling some members of other ethnic nationalities, particularly the lgbos in Lagos that it rubbed off very badly,some Nigerians are entertaining the fear that the incoming regime may be autocratic to the point of stifling opposition.

    While one can understand the reasons for the worry, but the fears should be allayed by the fact that there is nothing in Mr Tinubu’s leadership credentials that suggest that he is an authoritarian or not a democrat.

    On the contrary, the president- elect is known to have always resorted to abiding by the rule of law as reflected by his resort to the law court for redress when former president Olusegun Obasanjo,OBJ withheld the allocation of federal funds to Lagos state under Mr Tinubu’s watch as governor,and he unilaterally created local government development areas to the chagrin of then president Obasanjo who felt that Tinubu contravened the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria with respect to the creation of additional local government areas.

    And it is on record that at the end of the legal battle that ensued ,Mr Tinubu and Lagos state triumphed over OBJ and the federal government in the court of law .

    As a policy wonk with a rich pedigree in the private sector particularly as one time treasurer of Mobil oil producing company in Nigeria,the ex lagos state governor, Tinubu now president-elect is renown for having a knack for identifying and selecting talents from both the public and private sectors to work with for effective service delivery.

    He did so when he was governor of Lagos state and his cabinet was populated by a formidable pool of talents drawn from both within and outside of Lagos state,Yoruba land and even extending to lgbo land.

    Some of the benefits of his keen eye for talents are evidenced by the fact that a record number of the former members of his cabinet (1999-2007) have moved on to become vice president of Nigeria- Prof Yemi Osinbajo; ministers and governors in lagos and Osun states-Mr Babatunde Fashola , who is the current minister of Works also ex governor of Lagos state and Mr Rauf Aregbesola, present minister of the Interior and ex governor of Osun state ,as well as Mr Lai Mohamed, currently the minister of lnformation that has been angling to become the governor of his home state,Kwara , so far without luck, and not forgetting Mr Sunday Dare who is the current Youth and Sports minister.

    As governor,Asiwaju Tinubu was so good at generating revenue for development through tax in lagos state the president Mohammadu Buhari upon becoming president in 2015 practically conscripted lagos state tax tzar, Babatunde Fowler to lead the revenue generation effort ar the federal government level. And Tinubu ‘loaned’ the lagos money making machine, Fowler to the federal government as Federal Inland Revenue Service , FIRS boss.

    In fact,the word on the street is that it is the superb development paradigm introduced by Mr Tinubu that successive administrations since he exited the seat of power as governor of lagos state in 2007, have been leveraging to seamlessly build upon to attain the current lofty heights that the state has reached.

    That is part of the reasons that Lagos state is currently rated as the 5th largest economy in Africa after Nigeria , South Africa, Egypt and Tunisia.

    And the former Lagos governor now president-elect Tinubu’s political prowess and business savviness are the feat that his admirers reckon would be replicated at the national level when he is sworn in as the next president of Nigeria on 29 May 2023.

    And he is not unfamiliar with fighting insurgents and militancy. It may be recalled that under OBJ’s watch as president (1999-2007) there was the rise of the group known as Odua Peoples Congress, OPC which was basically a pan Yoruba ethnic nationalist organization. They were dreaded in lagos by criminal elements, but sometimes they crossed the line of decency and acted like terrorists to innocent lagosians from time to time.

    That prompted the need to rein them in and the rest is history as OPC threat paled and the menace melted away from lagos state and the entire Yoruba land without much hoopla. That is simply because a soft approach as opposed to the resort to only sheer brute force as has been the case with dealing with Boko haram insurgents and other criminal elements in the north and separatist movements and sundry malfeasance in the east ,was applied.

    The same approach of getting to the roots of the matter may be adopted for dealing with insecurity currently ravaging our cherished country.

    President-elect Tinubu’s tried and tested approach to conflict resolution is quite in contrast with the realities in the leadership of our country at the centre,Abuja whose policies and programs seem as if they are not based on any clear cut strategy, as evidenced by the fact that the federal government lacks actionable development plan, hence governance has mainly been driven by knee jerk policies.
    As such our country seems to have been fumbling,even our nation has been stumbling and tumbling from one leadership and administrative calamity to another.

    Although,the outgoing president Mohammadu Buhari has in the spirit of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan which is a period of penance for Islamic faithfuls and the celebration of sallah that happens at the end of the fasting period, in the spirit of reconciliation appealed to Nigerians to forgive him for any short comings of his administration as he exits Aso Rock Villa,a gesture he reportedly made last Friday when Abuja residents visited him in Aso Rock Villa as part of the traditional sallah homage, but as Adam Smith , the Scottish economist and philosopher posits: “Mercy to the guilty is cruelty to the innocent”.

    Earlier on,Mr President had been boasting that he is leaving our country better than he met it nearly eight (8) years ago.

    That claim must have been very difficult for most Nigerians to process as our country under his watch in the past eight (8) years has sunken into the worst socioeconomic turmoil that it has ever experienced since the civil war (1967-70).

    And it is one of the reasons that skeptics are doubting that the presidential candidate of the president’s party APC that failed the Nigerian people spectacularly could win the presidency.

    But from historical experience in politics all over the world,except in the event of very serious disasters occurring very close to election period and the president and party are adjudged to have failed to act with dexterity in the management of the crisis arising therefrom, merely performing below par hardly results in a ruling party or incumbent president not being re-elected.

    The exceptions are catastrophic events such as the Iran hostage crisis whereby the US was unable to rescue Americans held hostage in Iran in 1980, a year to the end of his first term that president Jimmy Carter ended up as a one term president.

    The other causes are catastrophic events like hurricanes and COVID-19 pandemic that got mismanaged by then incumbent president of the US,Mr Donald Trump and lost his re-election bid in 2019/20.

    Otherwise,broadly speaking,seating governments hardly lose elections in the US and advanced democracies unless calamity struck without commensurate response.

    Although the non transparent manner in which the elections 2023 results was collated and announced has cast doubt on its veracity,most Nigerians appear to have elected to eschew the dog-in-a-manger attitude which a vocal minority had adopted.

    As earlier noted ,the assertion above is reflected by the good tidings issuing from the mouths of respected traditional, iconic cultural and revered faith leaders in our country in this season of love for both Christians and Muslims alike.

    To be Frank,it would have been better that INEC chairman Prof Mahmoud Yakubu did not promise to transmit election results from polling units directly to its servers for public viewing in its Independent Results Viewing (IReV) portal.

    But he made that confidence building promise and failed to deliver on it,hence the shadow of doubt that has been cast on the authenticity of the results.

    At best ,it is an own goal by INEC and the negative consequences have rubbed-off very badly on the declared winner of the presidential race whose victory is now believed to be tainted by a good number of Nigerians-voters and foreign elections monitors/observers alike.

    But a cure or remedy for the negative impressions or the doubts that had been cast on elections 2023 results is already manifesting in the course of the ongoing presentations at the Presidential Elections Tribunal by a coterie of attorneys representing INEC, President-Elect Tinubu and the aggrieved presidential candidates, ex-vice president Atiku Abubakar of PDP and Mr Peter Obi of LP that have commenced making their cases before our lordships in the temple of justice.

    And there is a high level of possibility that a fruitful resolution may be in the horizon at the end of the one hundred and eighty (180) days adjudicative window for the exercise during which it is expected that the attorneys and the jurists in the election tribunal might have been able to produce a complete and clearer picture after piecing together the seeming jigsaw puzzle which elections 2023 had been looking like immediately after the exercise ended.

    Hopefully,the erudite attorneys from all the contenders may be able to demonstrate convincingly to skeptical and cynical Nigerians that the declared winner and losers in the elections are truly deserving of their victory or otherwise.

    In the interim it is gratifying that most Nigerians have elected to allow peace to reign so that the only country that we all can call our own would not be made to go up in conflagration.

    And the glory for a crisis free transfer to power from the outgoing to a new political leadership on 29 May can only go to God, the almighty.

     

    ONYIBE, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, development strategist, democracy advocate, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts university, Massachusetts, USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from Lagos.