Tag: People

  • A People, United: Conversations with the Saharawi foreign minister, By Owei Lakemfa

     

    By Owei Lakemfa

    MOHAMMED Salem Uld Salek descended the stairs of the Saharawi Arab Democratic Republic, SADR, Embassy in Abuja with an agility that belied his seven decades on earth. The foreign minister reminded me of our last meeting in June 2019 during the visit of the SADR (also known as the Western Sahara) President Brahim Ghali. Salek, like a doting uncle, insisted on personally serving tea to Comrade Abiodun Aremu of the Nigeria Movement for the Liberation of Western Sahara, and I. He was accompanied by Ambassador Brahim Saleh Buseif and the First Secretary, Fadil Amari. Nigerian activist and facilitator, Suleiman Pema was also present.

     

    Minister Salek was in Abuja to brief President Muhammadu Buhari and Nigerian officials on the situation in Western Sahara following the November 13, 2020 violation of ceasefire agreements by Morocco, a sister African country which is occupying two thirds of Western Sahara. That violation has resulted in the resumption of armed conflicts between both countries.

     

    Ordinarily, Salek’s visit should have been smooth sailing. First, Western Sahara has justice and morality on its side as humanity recognises the inviolable right of all peoples to self-determination. Secondly, the African Union, AU, has since 1982 recognised the independence of Western Sahara and admitted that country as a full member. Thirdly, Nigeria had since 1984 recognised Western Sahara independence and rejected Morocco’s recolonisation. Fourthly, the Nigerian Head of State, then General Muhammadu Buhari who 37 years ago announced Nigeria’s recognition, is today the elected President of the country. To solidify the Western Sahara position in Nigeria, Professor Ibrahim Agboola Gambari who as Nigerian Foreign Minister in 1984 announced the recognition of Western Sahara’s independence, is today, the powerful Chief of Staff to President Buhari. In fact, he was the President of the Nigeria Movement for the Liberation of Western Sahara before his current appointment on May 13, 2020.

     

    But politics is not linear and the sum total of its numbers change with circumstances and time; the Nigeria of the 1970s and ‘80s that stood on principles espousing the values of Pan Africanism, perhaps due to advancing poverty, prevaricates. The same Sunday, January 31, 2021 Salek left Nigeria, President Buhari and Moroccan King Mohammed V1, had a telephone conversation during which they agreed to execute the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline and construction of a fertiliser production plant in Nigeria. It just might have escaped the memory of Buhari that materials for the fertiliser plant will be looted from Western Sahara as Morocco has done in the past few years. Buhari thanked the King for support in the fight against terrorism and violent extremism. This ordinarily seems okay. But if terrorism is the use of unlawful force or violence to further political or social objectives, King Mohammed V1 by the violence and looting he executes in Western Sahara, is perpetuating nothing but terrorism.

     

    Salek had in our conversations said Morocco crossed the buffer zone because it thought with its allies like France and America in the United Nations Security Council, the body will not condemn it and that the POLISARIO-led Saharawi will merely protest. It did not bargain that the Saharawi will fight to defend their country. So Morocco did not envisage a long-drawn guerrilla war which Salek says will not end until Morocco ends its occupation. He said the United Nations-supervised referendum should have taken place decades ago but has been stalled by Morocco when it realised the Saharawi will never vote to be part of that kingdom.

     

    Salek said: “Morocco has phosphate, but knowing that it would one day lose Western Sahara, it is looting our resources using companies like Dangote.” He said the fundamental issue is: “What will be the future of our union, the AU? If an African country becomes a coloniser like the European coloniser; if our leaders on the continent allow this to happen, what will be the fate of our continent? Can countries like Nigeria, Egypt and Algeria allow an African country to be colonised?”

     

    Salek says he is aware that Morocco, itself a poor country, is being given some empowerment to bribe very poor African countries or those in difficulties to sell off the independence of Western Sahara by opening non-functional consulates in the occupied territories; but that in itself will not stop the de-colonisation process. He named some of the compromised countries as Guinea which, led by the unforgettable Sekou Toure, had historically stood alone in West Africa against continued French colonisation; Guinea Bissau which under the brilliant African revolutionary, Amilcar Cabral, had fought a bloody war of de-colonisation against brutish Portuguese colonisation; Democratic Republic of Congo which under the principled Patrice Lumumba had forced Stone Age Belgium to concede independence, and former Upper Volta, renamed in 1984 by Thomas Sankara as Burkina Faso, meaning the ‘Land of Incorruptible People.’ Salek also listed among these compromised nations, Zambia whose founding President Kenneth Kaunda famously proclaimed: “Zambia Shall Be Free!” Gambia, the Comoros, war-torn Central Africa Republic and Liberia whose motto famously proclaimed: “The Love Of Liberty Brought Us Here.”

     

    Salek, a lawyer trained in Rabat, at this point, made his basic submissions: “We have an aggressor and aggressee. There is the principle in international law against acquiring lands by force. Secondly, how does the world allow someone to kill his neighbour and occupy his home? Thirdly, most African countries had some relationship with ancient empires (like Ghana, Mali, Songhai and Oyo); will they come today and claim proprietorship over independent countries? If we allow foreign interests to use an African country against another, we cannot progress… What is at stake is the Constitutive Act of the AU. What will be the legitimacy of the AU if it cannot call a member violating its basic principles to order?”

     

    On the recognition by the Trump administration of Morocco’s claimed ownership of Western Sahara, Salek chuckled: “If Moroccans really believe Western Sahara is theirs, they will not need Trump to say it is theirs; if your house is your house, you do not need somebody to say it is your home. This Trump declaration was part of a deal between Morocco and Israel for the former to recognise Israel and its illegal occupation of Palestinian lands in return for recognition of Morocco’s occupation of Western Sahara. It is a business transaction like selling a goat. Trump cannot give a territory he does not own; he cannot give one country to another country. It is a joke. If Trump says he recognises Togo or Benin Republic as part of Nigeria, will that not be crazy?”

     

    Salem wrapped up the discussions with his submission that Nigeria as an African leader must play its role to “defend the shared principles of Africa”.


     

  • People behind COVID-19 will be exposed this year – Prophet

    People behind COVID-19 will be exposed this year – Prophet

    Prophet Jeremiah Fufeyin, the founder of Christ Mercyland Deliverance Ministry, has said that the secret behind the novel Coronavirus pandemic would be exposed this year.

    The clergyman disclosed this in his prophecies for the new year at Crossover Night service at Mercy City, headquarters of the ministry in Warri, Delta state.

    Prophet Fufeyin, popularly called Owomowomo 1, said: “There’s confusion about the COVID-19 vaccine that is coming. There’s a big commotion about the vaccine they’re talking about.

    “God wants to expose some people behind the COVID-19 pandemic. Some people will expose others over the vaccine.

    “Everybody will know the secret behind COVID-19 this year; Coronavirus is a useless thing, people will be exposed this year.

    “There’s confusion coming regarding COVID-19 and the confusion is in favour of the children of God”.

  • A people united can never be defeated, By Owei Lakemfa

    By Owei Lakemfa

     

    Twenty-twenty is the Year of the Pandemic and Protests; the year of major elections and political upheavals. In October 2020 alone, street protests swept through many countries, making landfalls, with some leaders swept away. The latest is President Sooronbay Jeenbekov of Kyrgyzstan who had claimed victory in parliamentary elections. But the people disagreed and took to the streets. Rather than risk a clash between protesters and the security forces, he decided on October 15, to step down saying: “ There is nothing dearer to me than the life of each of my compatriots. I’m not holding on to power. I do not want to remain in the history of Kyrgyzstan as the President who shed blood and shot at his own citizens. Therefore, I’ve decided to resign.

     

    In Belarus, a former Soviet Union state like Kyrgyzstan, disputed elections which triggered mass protests against President Alexander Lukashenko is still simmering.

     

    In Israel, the country that tries to appropriate an ancient brand, protesters against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in their tens of thousands continue to demand his resignation or sack over corruption charges and his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Rather than confront the protesters, Nethanyahu is offering Israelis more bribe by allowing the construction of thousands of new settlements on stolen Palestinian lands.

     

    In October 2020, his government which had annexed the East Jerusalem homes of Palestinians as part of the new “undivided” capital of Israel, approved hundreds of new Israeli settlements on undisputed Palestinian lands in the wholly Palestinian city of Bethlehem. Two ironies in this move. First, Bethlehem is the birthplace of Jesus Christ, the Prince of Peace. But in Israel rendering Palestinians in Wadi Fukin village homeless in order to build another illegal settlement, it is waging war against a defenceless people. This in future will lead to more unrest. Secondly, while the Israelis protest against Nethanyahu for corruptly enriching himself, they accept stolen lands from him to build new homes, thereby violating two of the Ten Commandments. The first is: “Thou shall not steal” The second is “Thou shall not covet thy neigbour’s house, thou shall not covet thy neigbour’s wife, nor his manservant, nor his maidservant, nor his ox, nor his ass, nor anything that is thy neigbour’s” (Exodus 20: 2-17)

     

    Internationally, many Israelis think Nethanyahu is doing well bribing Middle East and African countries to resume diplomatic relations. The outstanding one this month, is offering Sudan $5million food aid in return for the re-establishment of diplomatic relations. So the protest message from Israel is that while it is okay for Nethanyahu to be a crook abroad, he must not steal from the Israeli treasury.

     

    The ruling party in Seychelles in the Indian Ocean archipelago has been in power for 43 years while Anglican priest and opposition leader, Wavel Ramkalawan, has been a serial presidential contender having ran for elections over the last three decades. That changed this Sunday when he trounced incumbent President Danny Faure, taking 54.9 per-cent of the votes to Faure’s 43.5 per-cent. Both men promised to work together, declaring their country as the ultimate winner. This is in sharp contrast to the culture of elections in many African countries where elections are literally wars in which no prisoners are taken.

     

    Meanwhile, the post-election violence predicted in Guinea is on with over two dozen deaths. Incumbent President Alpha Conde, 82, is in the race for a controversial third term. In March, he pushed through a constitutional amendment which changed the two-term limit. When his expected victory was announced on Saturday, renewed violence broke out. Opposition candidate Cellou Dalein Diallo, 68, also claimed victory. The international community which could not call Conde to order, this Monday, sent a delegation from the United Nations, African Union and the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS to mediate. Meanwhile, the country burns.

     

    A similar scenario is unfolding in Cote d’Ivoire where elections this Saturday, October 31, 2020 will feature incumbent President Alassane Ouattara who is running for an unconstitutional third term. To worsen matters, some political leaders like former President Laurent Gbagbo, former rebel leader Guillaume Soro and opposition leader Mamadou Koulibaly of the Freedom and Democracy for the Republic party, LIDER, are barred from contesting the elections. A similar controversial election in 2010, led to over 3,000 deaths with Ouattara declared winner not by elections, but by the bayonets of interventionist French soldiers. The former International Monetary Fund, IMF, official who, at 78, is regarded as France’s boy in West Africa, still retains the support of his masters in Paris. After subverting the constitution and getting strong opposition figures disqualified, Ouattara seems good for re-election, and the country for another round of violence. The UN-AU-ECOWAS peace team trying to douse the fires of unrest in Guinea, are likely to move over to Coted d’ Ivoire.

     

    The elections in Bolivia on October 18, showed that a people united, can never be defeated. It evolved around the people but with a man called Evo Morales at the centre. He is an indigenous Indian, a people the ruling elites did not regard as human beings. Until 1952 the Indians, who constitute over 60 per-cent of the populace, were not allowed into squares and many public places. Where few were allowed, they were disinfected. Then Morales led successful street protests for justice. On the back of this, he ran and won the presidential elections, first in December 2005, then 2009 and 2014. But when he won for a fourth time in 2019, the opposition candidate, Carlos Mesa protested the results. Underlying this was a pre-election controversy whether Morales was constitutionally qualified to run a fourth term. Morales agreed to a rerun, but Mesa insisted he be disqualified.

     

    The military, led by then Chief of the Armed Forces, General Williams Kaliman, opportunistically moved in to stage a coup. Morales resigned and fled to Mexico. The Bolivian Vice President, Álvaro García; Senate Leader, Adriana Salvatierra; and House of Deputies’ Leader, Victor Borda, who could step in as Acting President, were also pressured to resign. There was a lot of frenzy by the new regime to wipe out all Morales had achieved, including his government moving millions out of poverty, building huge infrastructure, diversifying the economy by concentrating on agriculture, redistributing land to the landless, increasing public spending by 750 per-cent and increasing annual income derivable from its oil from $173 Million in 2002 to $1.3 billion to $1.3 billion in 2006.

     

    In the new elections with 88 per-cent turn out, Luis Arce, candidate of the Movement Towards Socialism, MAS, which had produced Morales, won 55 per-cent of the votes, while Mesa came second with 29 per-cent. Once again in Bolivia, the people have triumphed and shown that sovereignty belongs to them.

  • In a Nine Point Development Agenda, President Buhari Finally Bows To The Wish of the People, By Magnus Onyibe

    In a Nine Point Development Agenda, President Buhari Finally Bows To The Wish of the People, By Magnus Onyibe

    By Magnus Onyibe

    President Mohammadu Buhari on Tuesday , 25 August, 2020 continued with the rejigging of his administration’s policy plank by repackaging his erstwhile three point development agenda of anti corruption, fighting insurgency as well as economic development. He chose the occasion of the parley with diplomats for the presentation of their credentials to him to make the very important announcement which represents a policy sea change.
    He put it this way:
    “In our efforts to achieve a realistic domestic and foreign policy, as well as national development, we have identified the following nine priority areas to guide our policy directions over the next few years.
    “Build a thriving and sustainable economy; Enhance social inclusion and reduce poverty; Enlarge agricultural output for food security and export; Attain energy sufficiency in power and petroleum products and expand transport and other infrastructural development.
    “Expand business growth, entrepreneurship and industrialization; Expand access to quality education, affordable healthcare and productivity of Nigerians; Build a system to fight corruption, improve governance and create social cohesion; and improve security for all.’’
    Remarkably, anti corruption war which was the no 1 priority and fulcrum of the former policy is now in the rear as it is being replaced by fighting poverty which was not originally on the agenda as no 1 priority.
    Coming on the heels of the reversal of the regimes unsustainable policies of fuel subsidy that has been gulping public funds estimated to be in excess of a trillion naira annually that should have been used to subsidize education which would be in support of production, instead of subsidizing consumption which fuel subsidy is really about; the defense of the naira against the dollar or currency devaluation which has resulted in the hemorrhage of the foreign exchange reserve ,only a forth night ago, the relegation of the anti corruption policy of the administration to where it should have been from the get go, affirms my thoughts canvased in the last public opinion piece that l published which is that Nigerian economy may well be under the full control of the new economic management team led by Doyin Salami , with Chukwuma Soludo and Bismarck Rewane and others as key drivers .
    With the economy out of the orbit of those who hitherto reveled in the pastime of continuously bashing and stigmatizing Nigeria and Nigerians by tagging them with the toga of corruption with gusto, all in the effort to impress President Buhari whose ego they were massaging owing to his acclaimed zero tolerance for corruption, our country and country’s men/women were only rewarded , if you can refer to it as such , by trading places with India, as the new poverty headquarter of the world. And the branding of our country with that abhorrent epitaph happened after our economy descended into recession in 2016 which was more of a self inflicted damage or own goal, than due to weak economic fundamentals, which really broke my heart.
    Obviously, with the busting of the anti corruption bubble and demystification of the likes of the currently suspended EFCC boss , lbrahim Magu, the Presidential Advisory Committee on Anti Corruption , chairman, Itse Sagay and a host of other hawkish Aso Rock Villa apparatchiks that were beating the drums for anti corruption war for mr president’s listening pleasure and possibly for him to dance , now replaced by the new chief of Staff to the president, CoS lbrahim Gambari and the forward looking, tested and tried economic policy wonks, the polity can now heave a sigh of relieve.
    Tellingly, President Buhari’s choice of meeting with the diplomats for the public presentation of the new policy, carries the imprimatur of his chief of staff, Gambari who, as a juggernaut in foreign policy and affairs is leveraging the ability and capacity of that August body to catalyze that good tiding abroad.
    Hopefully , the accomplished men and women now driving the new initiative who are manifestly desirous of nothing more than to prove their mettle and protect their already solid reputations,will remain in the front row with mr president, so that the administration may end well in 2023 in the best interest of the long suffering Nigeria masses, most of whom are currently at the point of asphyxiation, economically and security wise .
    lf my prediction and presumption about the new economic team being on the saddle now is correct, then Nigeria can be said to be on the cusp of witnessing a positive new dawn. Prior to the current positive turn of events , the choice between whether to wage war against corruption or poverty was open to the Govt at its inception in 2015. It chose war against corruption over war against poverty under the wrong notion that corruption is the cause of poverty which may appear correct, but that’s darn wrong because poverty is often a product of, or a fall out of poor planning or lack of a winning plan, hence the nation’s economy is now in the doldrums. Furthermore, the contest between the choice of waring against corruption or poverty reminds me of the current hard choice of whether to weigh in, on the side of life or livelihood by going out to work or staying at home, in dealing with the crisis of COVID-19 pandemic. It also re-enacts the conflict of conscience om wether to slow down economic activities and associated pollution in recognition of the damage it does to the climate and its threat to life/mankind or sustain economic activities/livelihood and Damon or live with the consequences.
    Happily, the administration has now chosen to wage war on poverty which is cheery news.
    As a proof of our consistent warning to the authorities via opinion articles, drawing their attention to the fact that, with their zealous war against corruption, they were hurting the economy more than they were helping with their fantastic and unsubstantiated corruption claims , permit me to put things in context by citing and reproducing excerpts from four of my previously published articles on the subject. The essays include (1) “Balancing The War Against Corruption and Economic Growth” , (2) “How Can President Buhari Move The Economy Forward Looking Backwards”, and (3)
    “Which is Hurting More, Corruption or The War Against It? as well as (4) “The Role of The Judiciary , State And Society “.
    To further put things in perspective, allow me go on memory lane by recalling the first few paragraphs in the referenced articles commencing with the one titled, “Balancing The War Against Corruption And Economic Growth” published widely on 9 June , 2016 on both online newspapers such as the Cable and traditional newspapers.
    It goes thus:
    “The most significant telltale of the economic melt down in Nigeria is the drop in GDP from between 5-6% annually, a couple of years ago to an all time low of 2.7%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS figures for 2015. A further downgrade to about 2.3% this year is being forecasted, particularly if there is no upswing in international price of crude oil, which is very unlikely.
    The global rating agency, Fitch has also affirmed, NBS’s dismal growth outlook for Nigeria by downgrading Nigeria from BB- which is a negative forecast just as Standards and Poor, another acclaimed international rating agency has also stepped down Nigeria to B+ which is also negative. Both Fitch and S&P risk ratings are three, 3 and four,4 steps respectively below investments grade which is a sad commentary on an economy which was one of the fastest growing in the world and the fastest in Africa only half a decade ago.
    Not to be out done by the global agencies that are reckoning that Nigeria’s economic future may be impaired, the International Monetary Fund, IMF in a recent report -Article IV Consultation-which is an outcome of IMF Managing Director, Christine Lagarde and her team’s recent visits for consultations with Nigeria, avers that “Nigerian economy is facing substantial challenges”.
    The harm that negative risk ratings such as the ones listed above do to economies is to increase the cost of borrowing from sovereign wealth funds , hedge funds and portfolio equity funds abroad.
    Unsurprisingly, all the aforementioned dismal economic outlooks are being attributed to the sudden drop in crude oil price which traded at over $100 between 2012-2014 but suddenly dropped by about 70% to between $30-40 since late 2015.
    However, the injurious impact of the crash in oil price does not tell the whole story about the distress in Nigerian economy because the reality is that president Mohammadu Buhari’s fight against corruption has also, perhaps unintentionally, exacerbated the instability in the polity to the extent that the political tension is now having a contagion effect on the economy and as such it is taking an unintended toll.
    The assertion above is premised on the fact that while new investment initiatives are not being taken, owing to the tough fiscal and monetary measures arising from the anti corruption war, existing businesses are grinding to a halt, due to the hiatus engendered by the uncertainties and disarray in the economy.
    There are three significant and overlapping anti corruption initiatives of govt that have become the triggers for the current economic doom and gloom, manifesting in Nigerian streets and cities as fuel queues, high cost of living and massive unemployment amongst the youths.
    The first is the so called Dasukigate -$2.1b arms funds, allegedly converted into campaign slush funds and the ripple effect. The probe has sent jitters down the spines of both genuine and fraudulent businessmen and women engaged in defense and security sectors of the economy, such that even the non guilty are afraid. That’s unsurprising because over three hundred (300) companies that did business with the Office Of The National Security Adviser, ONSA are being investigated by the dreaded Economic And Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC led by the fearsome Ibrahim Magu.
    With such huge number of companies under scrutiny, the apprehension and uncertainty engendered have become contagious to the extent that others are now afraid to continue to do business, so they are adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The proposed one day workers strike action by the Nigeria Labour congress, NLC to forcefully bring the plight of workers bearing the excruciating pains of a collapsing economy to the attention of govt, is a testimony to the fact that the Nigerian situation is degenerating into a potential labor crisis and it is a result of the absence of defined fiscal policies.
    Secondly, apart from security focused companies involved with ONSA that are being quizzed, oil/gas companies have also been under the gaze of anti graft agencies.
    With the corruption ridden crude oil for refined products swap contract reviewed by the new minister of state for petroleum resources, Ibe Kachikwu and a new list of crude oil lifting firms drawn up, as well as a new template for importation of refined petroleum products replacing the former procedure, there is bound to be disruptions and the resultant consequence is the fuel queues on the streets. This perhaps explains why Kachikwu, who also doubles as the Group Managing Director of Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, told Nigerians that he was not a magician who could wave a wand so that the embarrassing fuel queues would disappear over night. The straight talking Kachikwu’s narrative didn’t resonate well in the political circles, so he got lambasted by APC leader, Bola Tinubu for not being politically correct. Even though it should be clear to everybody that the fuel queues won’t go away till the month of May, when the new imports are expected to arrive as importers only just received allocation of foreign exchange, politicians and activists would rather Kachikwu apologized to Nigerians instead of telling the truth.
    We do not need a sooth sayer to inform us that the disruptive petroleum sector probes were bound to have consequences and barring plans to mitigate such fall outs – like govt having strategic reserves of fuel in different locations nationwide-the current fuel shortages were inevitable.
    The simple truth is that companies(downstream and upstream) accused of short changing Nigerians through shady Oil Swap and opaque production sharing contracts, have been returning their loots and in the process, their treasuries have been running dry such that they are unable to sustain their operations like before. The net result is the downward scaling or complete shut down of some of the oil companies thereby further compounding the already dire unemployment situation in our country. Same situation applies to importers and marketers of refined petroleum products who were unable to continue with the trade as they found it difficult to service their existing bank loans which was due to unpaid or delayed settlement of fuel subsidy charges by NNPC. This is in addition to the fact that without the approval of budget 2016, fuel importers were also wary of whether or not govt’s position on the controversial fuel subsidy would remain the same or change.
    Until International Oil Companies, IOCs, through an arrangement brokered by Kachikwu decided to support fuel importation by making two hundred million dollars ($200m) available to independent importers, the CBN was unable,due to paucity of funds, to continue to single handedly fund new imports of fuel. With no fresh imports from independent marketers except the meager supply by NNPC, the pumps dried up prompting the current supply crisis.
    Similarly, local banks which are the erstwhile providers of funds for fuel importation are having hard time obtaining new credit lines from their counterpart banks abroad, especially as international rating agencies like Fitch, S&P etc, earlier mentioned, are rendering negative prognosis of Nigerian economy, signaling distress.
    Thirdly, in addition to the unsavory outcome and ripple effect of Dasukigate, the delay in passing the 2016 appropriation bill, the debilitating outcome of the probe of the oil sector, and lack of fiscal policy blue print, another policy that has had negative effect on the economy is the mopping up govt’s idle funds hitherto kept in commercial banks by ministries, departments and agencies, MDAs, through an initiative referred to as Treasury Single Account, TSA.
    The policy has resulted in the transfer of three (3) trillion naira into the vaults of the central bank of Nigeria, CBN.
    Oddly enough, considering the universally acknowledged economic principle of every active one dollar generating about 40 cents, it does not bode well that a whooping N3 trillion TSA fund is now sterilized in CBN vaults”.
    Still harping on the danger that the unbridled anti corruption war poses to the economy , six months after, l followed up with the article below titled “How Can Nigerian Leaders Move Economy Forward,While Looking Backward” whose excerpt is reproduced below:
    “Economic policies can stifle growth when they are excessive, inappropriate, introduced late or out of sync with reality.

    So at what point do wrong or inappropriate economic policies muzzle growth?

    A simple answer to the rhetorical question would be that things go awry when policies that are supposed to address challenges that may constrain the economy from growing, like policy reforms aimed at enabling the charting of new development paths, are relegated, while priority are given to policies dwelling on the past, such as devoting too much energy in fighting corruption which amounts to trying to move forward, while looking backwards.
    Except on one rare occasion, during a tour of the pentagon, when a naval officer who was conducting us round the edifice that houses the USA Department of Defense, DoD, was moving forward while facing us, l have never seen any sane and rational human being walking backward over such a lengthy distance.

    While l was enthralled by the awesomeness of the Pentagon complex which is practically the size of a small town, l was equally amazed that the navy officer who was walking backward with great agility did not bump into other people who were moving back and forth on the same corridor.
    Upon inquiry, later, I was informed that it was the tradition and custom for the tour guide at the Pentagon to address guests facing them while walking down the corridors and narrating to them,brief history of the strategic building complex, housing the USA military high command.
    To me, the idea of the current Govt in power spending the better part of nearly two years in office dwelling entirely on what the outgone govt did wrongly or did not do at all, re-enacts the flabbergasting experience of watching the naval officer, during the pentagon tour, deliberately walking forward with his back while facing us and at the same time looking backwards to ensure that he does not bump into others.
    Although, the naval officer successfully conducted us round the complex without bumping into people because the process has been practiced over time, so he has mastered it,but our leaders don’t have the benefit of having practiced the very odd concept of attempting to move forward while looking backwards, hence the nation’s economy had bumped into all manners of obstacles before it finally ended up in the recession ditch.
    Now, l have heard some bureaucrats in Govt argue that Nigeria’s economy is currently in recession because we do not export any other commodity than oil/gas, while we import everything else that we consume including refined petroleum products, and since oil/ gas price has tanked, recession was inevitable.
    Such claim is illogical because in 2008 , without having other products except crude oil to export, Nigerian economy had bucked the global recession arising from a similar slump in oil/gas price,mainly because the country had robust savings in its foreign reserve and also partly due to the fact that at the time, the economy was under the management of astute technocrats.
    So unarguably, it should be stated unequivocally, that the descent of Nigerian economy into recession is a result of policy challenge which has become the regular trademark of Nigeria and more pronounced during these past 18 months of the current Aso Rock occupants being on the saddle.
    The reasons for the above assertion are not farfetched as they are rooted in the policy inertia or paralysis characterized by the following: not setting up a cabinet until nearly six months after ascension to power; not making a decision on whether to sustain or scrap petroleum products subsidy until one year after; delayed passage of budget due to Executive and Legislative arms of govt wrangling; not deciding to float the naira until about one year on the saddle ; equivocation on retention of amnesty extended to former Niger delta militants by previous regime and introduction capital control measures culminating in the banning of 41 items from sourcing foreign exchange from the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN window, amongst many other well documented factors which reflect lack of preparedness to mount the saddle by the new Govt”
    Please take note that the foregoing piece was written three years ago.
    And although the alarm that l and other members of the commentariat was raising was largely ignored, l did not relent in the push as evidenced by another intervention on July 25 2016 published in Thisday newspaper and online platforms. It was titled:
    “Which is Hurting More, Corruption or Collateral Damage from Fighting It?”

    Some of us have literarily been at President Muhammadu Buhari’s ‘throat’ over what we deem to be economically, socially and politically rough methods and procedures that the president has been adopting in combating corruption in Nigerian and the catastrophic effects on the nation. Apart from the evidently obtrusive anti-corruption war, another clog in the wheel of progress is the knee jerk and pigeon hole policy initiatives that have led to failed expectations of positive outcomes, as opposed to unleashing a holistic policy package, which could have addressed all identified economic, political and social challenges harmoniously in a timeous manner, without equivocation and thus yield the desired socioeconomic liberation of Nigeria.

    By now, it must be clear to all, as it has become incontestable that, it is the economic, social and political fallouts of the brutish pursuit and tunnel vision of eliminating corruption at all costs by this administration that is the culprit for the unprecedented hardship currently putting the nation’s economy on a lockdown.
    The fiasco that the economy has been plunged into is reflected in the imminent recession now confirmed by both the IMF in its World Economic Outlook, WEO report and the Central bank of Nigeria, CBN via Governor Godwin Emefiele’s recent testimony to the Nigerian senate.

    Other incidents or events signposting the fact that Nigeria and indeed Nigerians are in dire straits are: social upheavals in the north east triggered by Boko Haram terrorism resulting in millions of families being consigned to living miserably in Internally Displaced People, IDP camps; renewed Niger Delta militancy focused on bombing oil facilities that has crippled oil/gas business and damaged the ecosystem and environment very badly; the recent increasingly violent crimes popping up in the suburbs of Lagos and in fact, across the country in the form of kidnappings and violent attacks on defenceless people by bandits disguised as Fulani herdsmen.

    As glaringly disruptive and debilitating as the effects of the anti-corruption war has been on the hoi poloi, whom the president is ostensibly protecting, nobody has considered a change of tactics to ease the pain on the less privileged members of society. This implies that our leaders may be oblivious of the reality of how, cruel, grueling and dreary life has become for the average Nigerian in the past one year.

    In the light of the growing and palpable despondency being foisted on the populace, following the economic woes in the country fueling the emasculation of the common man, the rhetorical question elicited by the circumstances would be: which is more hurtful, corruption or the collateral damage of fighting it?

    On a scale of balance, the simple and rational answer would be that corruption is more harmful, because it is debilitating and virulent like HIV/aids, Ebola virus and cancer disease combined, but in fighting the malaise, authorities should be careful not to inadvertently throw away the baby and the bath water, otherwise, the collateral damage could be equal, if not more devastating, as we are currently witnessing in Nigeria.

    Tell me, who would set a house on fire along with ornate and precious artifacts just to catch or kill a rat? My heart skips a bit when l read online comments by Nigerians, whose backs have been pushed against the wall to the extent that they are now saying something like, BRING BACK GOODLUCK JONATHAN AND PDP with all the warts of corruption, as alleged, simply because life was less hellish under his watch than it currently is.

    Understandably, the world economy is presently suffering from bouts of recession, so all is not well globally, but the anti-corruption war in Nigeria, being executed after a historic successful transfer of power to an opposition party that trumped the incumbent at the polls, is definitely a major culprit for Nigeria’s current stagflation.

    Put succinctly, the financial crisis situation could not have gone south, had the anti-corruption war not exacerbated the situation. The foregoing stems from the fact that while most countries were writhing in and agonising in financial pains, Nigeria came out of the 2008 global recession unscathed due to buffers creatively woven into the financial system.
    So, it is possible that the current global recession might not have been as devastating on Nigeria’s economy, had authorities not literarily added fuel to a raging inferno by staging an all-out war against corruption resulting in exodus of funds and businesses from Nigeria at a time we should be courting both”
    Although, the conclusion of the piece was pretty grim, it did not dissuade the authorities managing our economy from staying the course which was apparently going to lead to perdition.
    So when the opportunity presented its self once again, l wrote and published the article below titled
    “War Against Corruption: Role Of Judiciary, State And Society published on online and traditional media platforms on 27, July, 2016 and reproduced copiously, below:
    “I would like to commence this intervention with the very cryptic statement by president Muhammadu Buhari at the opening ceremony of the 55th Annual General Conference of the Nigerian Bar Association, NBA on August 21,2015 where mr president urged the judiciary to support his war against corruption while noting that , “Ability to manipulate and frustrate the legal system is the crowning glory of the corrupt and, as may be expected, this has left many legal practitioners and law courts tainted in an ugly way.”
    Mr president then added that “ln a gathering such as this, l do not need to elaborate on the way that corruption and impunity have damaged our economy. But l would like to say more on what, l believe, should be your role as legal practitioners , in helping us back to the path of rectitude”.
    President Buhari who was represented by Vice President Yemi Osinbajo concluded by saying that ” allegations of judicial corruption have become more strident and frequent”.

    Perhaps, embarrassed by the attack on the judiciary, the Chief Justice of Nigeria,CJN Mahmud Mohamed vowed that going forward, the National Judicial Council, NJC would take strong disciplinary actions against judges indicted for issuing frivolous stay of proceeding orders on any criminal matters before them.
    He reminded judges that the essence of the newly enacted Administration of Criminal Justice Act, ACJA, 2015 was to prevent chances of accused persons taking undue advantage of interlocutory applications to frustrate their trial and ordered day-to-day trials of corruption cases.
    Remarkably, the CJN did not just decide to do ‘house keeping’ in the judiciary without reminding the executive arm of Govt accusing it of not being committed enough to the war against corruption that, ” There is need for seasoned prosecutors to prepare and file charges before courts of competent jurisdiction so that criminal matters could be timeously determined”. Continuing, the CJN pointed out that the “Quality of prosecutions must be improved upon, the quality of prosecutions presented in courts by our prosecutorial agencies must be improved upon, as they are sometimes of a standard that will never found a conviction on any court anywhere, yet, a well prepared prosecution can see to the determination of criminal matter within a month”.
    The positive fall out of the latter part of the CJN’s policy statement above ,seem to be the guiding principle and kernel of justice Olukayode Adeniyi of Federal High Court, Abuja’s decision on Thursday 21 July in granting bail to Abiodun Agbele, an associate of embattled Ekiti state governor, Ayo Fayose who was arrested and detained since last June 27 by the EFCC, beyond the constitutionally stipulated period of detention,without trial as provided in the 1999 constitution of Nigeria.
    In giving his verdict, Justice Adeniyi advised the EFCC to conduct their preliminary investigations thoroughly before arresting suspects to avoid the situation whereby corruption suspects are easily released in court due to improper arraignment.Such professional decisions based on respect for rule of law may be deemed by hawks in the executive arm of Govt as lack of commitment to the anti corruption war by the judiciary which president Buhari might have been alluding to when he unbraided the judiciary in his recent speech to the body of benchers.
    To serve as deterrent against prosecutors unpreparedness in future, judge Adeniyi awarded N5m cost against the EFCC and if the immediate reaction of the anti graft agency to the judgement is any thing to go by, the judge’s action is like pouring salt on an injury, hence the EFCC referred to the verdict as ‘shocking’ and signified intention to appeal against the decision and also seek stay of execution.
    The CJN and judge Olukayode Adeniyi are not alone in observing that anti graft agencies in Nigeria are sloppy in prosecution.
    Femi Falana, acclaimed human rights lawyer also in a piece in Thisday newspaper commemorating one year anniversary of the present administration on May 29th, 2016, pointed out the abysmal no of convictions against suspects so far secured by the EFCC.
    Although the boss of the indicted anti corruption agency, Ibrahim Magu has denied the low conviction rate of corrupt public officials as alleged by Falana who backed his claim with statistics, Justice Adeniyi’s verdict will certainly serve as a wake up call for the EFCC. The anti crime agency must shake off the notion that seem to feed the belief that it has the mindset that since the courts are another arm of the establishment who should also be sucked into the a to corruption war, suspects should be adjudged guilty as charged, without going through the rigorous process of proof of being guilty or otherwise remain innocent.
    If the onus of proof which in principle is on the prosecutor is not observed, it would definitely be a negation of the basic principles of justice and it’s administration.
    Admittedly,the conventional wisdom is that the law is an Ass, but the legal process was deliberately made long and tedious, so that the innocent is not unjustly imperiled on the alter of haste.
    As mr Magu already recognizes, and so that l may not be seen as belittling the very tough job of anti graft agencies, l acknowledge that being the head of EFCC is stressful, but somebody has got to do the job and that person must fulfill all righteousness of safeguarding the rules of of law and order for the sake of posterity and sustainability of the system”
    In conclusion , the phrase, history/experience is the best teacher, is instructive and rings true in this instance , hence l resorted to delving deeply into the archives to recall the moments that l personally raised red flags with respect to the foolhardiness of adopting war against corruption instead of war against poverty as the dissederatta or heart and soul of Buhari’s administration.
    Whereas it served well as the party’s touch point or rallying cry during campaign, as it had a resonating effect on the masses, it is a no brainer for the APC leadership to figure out that it was never going to be a good component of a cardinal development agenda or policy plank.
    Now ,this piece is not written with the intention of chastising or lambasting the authorities. But it is aimed at cheering up the government in power simply because it is quite relieving that the nation and its economy now seem poised for a 360% change from autarkic policies to market forces and economic dynamics driven approach to governance, six years after the ascension of president Buhari and the ruling political party, APC to power.
    Drawing inspiration from the aphorism , it’s better late than never , such an economic and development elixir coming less than three years to the end of his eight years tenure, may be rather late in coming , but it is still better than retaining the policy that has been discarded.
    Nevertheless , President Buhari must be commended for yielding to a superior strategy at this point in time that tackling corruption which has been the administration’s trademark has proven not to be an efficacious solution. Rather , a catastrophe as evidenced by the slew of skeletons of graft jumping out of ministries, departments and agencies including the ones arising from the foremost anti graft organ, EFCC to the chagrin and dismay of mr President.
    I would argue that focusing on fighting poverty , which would amount to paying attention to president Buhari’s voters base from where he draws the majority of his much vaunted 12 million voters portfolio, would turn out to be more beneficial and complementary to his legacy than the anti corruption hoax which had made Buharism appear to be synonymous with socialism and its globally documented negative effects on society.
    Most importantly, it is poverty and maladministration in the past two decades or so that’s believed to have largely ignited and still fanning the embers of the religious insurgency and banditry in the north being driven by Boko Haram and ISWAP.
    By implication , if poverty is reduced , and equity and justice prevail in every facet of Nigerian society, criminality in the form of religious extremism may ebb in the polity. And that would be to the relief of every Nigerian that currently can’t breathe freely, due to the debilitating effect of poverty or insecurity on their lives and livelihoods.

    Magnus onyibe, an entrepreneur, a public policy analyst , development strategist , an author and alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy , Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA as well as former commissioner in delta state govt, sent this piece from Lagos.

  • People might shun church services after COVID-19 pandemic – Sam Adeyemi

    People might shun church services after COVID-19 pandemic – Sam Adeyemi

    The senior pastor of the Daystar Christian Centre in Lagos, Sam Adeyemi, has said gathering members together for physical church services might prove difficult after the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The clegyman noted that over the couple of weeks members have adopted and embraced the online mode of worship from wherever they are.

    Adeyemi, who spoke during a monitored Instagram live interview, tagged: “Iforowero” with BBC News Yoruba said: “That’s an issue I have pondered upon severally because the church may not be the same again after this COVID-19 experience. As you can see, many people have been receiving messages via online broadcast from their homes. It’s no longer like before that they have to be physically present in churches,” he said.

    “Now that many have been used to worshiping God from the comfort of their rooms, will they go to church when COVID-19 is finally over? Many Christians may also feel relaxed on Sundays when they usually go to church.”

    Adeyemi also said the COVID-19 outbreak has afforded many Christians the opportunity to evaluate the extent to which their churches actually care about them.

    “Also, many Christians have start questioning the genuineness of their churches for them with little or no help coming their way during the pandemic period when hunger is holding sway,” he said.

    The cleric said the pandemic should teach church leaders and those occupying political offices that there is need to show humanity to one another if truly Nigeria hopes to grow.

    He also expressed displeasure over the devastating effect of the pandemic, saying he was pained that churches were closed.

    The cleric noted that everyone must bear with the situation and hold on for a while.

    Alluding to how a church in South Korea got affected by the outbreak of the virus, he said: “The church members were badly hit by this infectious disease and the pastor had to go about seeking for forgiveness.

    “Even if there is going to be social distancing in our churches, how many services are we going to hold? Looking at the differences between churches with big number of members, we have to be careful and remain calm because there is no vaccine yet… As a preacher, I travel all around. But I have remained indoor with my family.”

  • TNG Review: People, policies that shaped Nigeria’s economy in 2019

    With the year 2020 just a matter of hours away, Nigeria like other countries around the world is gradually counting its gains and losses in the outgoing year, 2019.

    While it can be said that the country barely made any appreciable progress economically, however, going forward, the challenges of a struggling economy still stares us in the face.

    Despite the peculiar challenges of an election year and consequential effects on the economy, recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.28 per cent in the third quarter of 2019, compared with 2.12 and 1.81 per cent in the preceding and corresponding quarters, respectively. The improved growth was driven largely by the performance of the oil sector, which grew by 6.49 per cent, while the non-oil sector grew by 1.85 per cent.

    The Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) also expanded for the 31st and 30th consecutive months at 58.2 index points apiece in October, 2019. Further projections indicate that real GDP in fourth quarter 2019 is expected to grow by 2.38 per cent, also driven by the oil sector.

    On the contrast, crude oil price, Nigeria’s major source of revenue remained soft in 2019.

    In its 2019 economic review and 2020 outlook released on Thursday, the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) projected a high cost of doing business in 2020.

    The Chamber attributes the projected high cost to poor infrastructure, multiplicity of levies, excessive regulations, among others.

    It said the nation may have recorded improvement on the Ease of Doing Business Ranking due to some recent policy measures, realities on ground would continue to differ if the highlighted challenges facing the country were not properly and immediately addressed.

    Notable policy action of some government officials that helped shaped economy in 2019

    The Nigerian economy survived a bumpy ride in the outgoing year courtesy of the actions of some public officials. Some of them are listed below:

    Finance Minister Mrs. Zainab Shamsuna Ahmed

    Finance Minister, Mrs. Zainab Shamsuna Ahmed, had within the year, announced the Federal Government’s plans to borrow $3 billion from the World Bank to revive the ailing power sector. She has consistently defended the Federal Government’s plans to take more loans.

    She said the World Bank and Nigerian team identified the imperative of solving operational efficiency problems in the power sector and revamping associated infrastructure to ensure that the overall success of the intervention in the sector is achieved.

    Continuing, she said the $3 billion loan is for financing the power sector.

    “This financing will include right now, the gap between what is provided for in the current tariff and the cost of the businesses themselves. There is a tariff shortfall but it would also enhance our ability to pay the previous obligations that have crystallised that we have not yet been able to pay.

    Some portions of it will be for the transmission network and if we are able to expand the facility to $4 billion, the additional $1 billion is for the distribution network. It will help us to exit the subsidy that is now inherent in the power sector.

    It is supposed to be to reform the sector, to restore the distribution business side of the sector, especially on a stronger footing so that they are freed up enough to go out and raise financing to invest in expanding the distribution network,” she stated.

    Mrs. Ahmed also disclosed the Federal Government’s plan to issue Naira- denominated jolly Bond, which will come with the support of the United Kingdom authorities to support Nigeria’s infrastructure financing.

    She said a working committee is being set up to interface with Nigeria on this possible naira denominated bond. “The CBN will be leading in this efforts we will also explore all options in this regard at the next UK investment summit that will be holding in January 2020. She said the Jolly Bond will be issued offshore but denominated in the local currency and the importance of such a bond is that it protects the country, the issuer from exchange rate exposure.

    On the border closure, she said the exercise was not meant to be vindictive. She said that since Nigeria was committed to the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), there was need to ensure that rules are obeyed, otherwise local industries will be greatly affected. “Businesses have been suffering due to the activities of smugglers but with the more opening up following our commitment to the AfCFTA, this will get worse unless we make sure now that everybody comes back to obey the rules as agreed”.

    The minister said the border closure was not permanent, adding that there are lots of discussions going on at the technical level and at some point, it will be at the level of presidents and then real commitments will be made and hopefully, everybody will comply to own side of the agreement.

    CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele

    The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele is a major player in the country’s economic boardroom.

    Emefiele started the year and subsequently his second tenure of five years, canvassing for the use of home-grown heterodox policies to successfully achieve substantial macro-economic stability in 2019.

    He pushed for the use of the Global Standing Instruction (GSI) to address the predatory impact of serial borrowers in the banking system, a phenomenon that reduced the level of bad loans over time.

    This was followed by the Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) policy meant to boost credit delivery by the deposit money banks (DMBs) to the real sector, Development Finance Initiatives in agriculture, micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and other real sector activities, including restriction of patronage by local corporate and individual investors in CBN Open Market Operation bills.

    The economy under Emefiele also faced some headwinds such as continued high level of unemployment, mild resurgence of anticipated inflationary pressures towards the December festive season, rising public debt, high level of insecurity, and slow pace of oil price recovery.

    Also disturbing was the rise in inflation within the year (year-on-year) from 11.24 in September to 11.61 per cent in October 2019.

    Despite these challenges, growth is expected to pick on the back of recent actions to boost credit to the private sector through the recent Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) and Global Standing Instruction (GSI) initiatives, sustained interventions by the CBN in selected employment and growth-enhancing sectors, as well as fiscal policy measures to support growth.

    The CBN’s continued intervention in the agricultural sector is expected to improve medium-term food supply. Indeed, there has been reports of bumper harvests in some staples like rice, maize, among others. The announcement this week of a new Guide to Bank Charges which reduced many bank charges as high as 50 per cent is expected to boost bank customers’ confidence in the financial system and promote economic stability.

    Ex-FIRS Chairman Tunde Fowler

    The immediate past Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), Tunde Fowler, this month quit at the expiration of his five-year term.

    The former FIRS boss had within his tenure raised tax collection from N3. 3 trillion in 2015 to N5.32 Trillion in 2018.

    Although petitions alleging under-performance were written against the administration of Fowler but the tax expert fired back with facts and statistics to show the level of improvement he brought to the tax body.

    Fowler helped in the implementation of the Tax Amnesty Programme (VAIDS), increased the number of taxpayers nationwide to over 20 million and began placing lien on the account of taxpayers.

    He also fostered collaboration among the states through the Joint Tax Board and called for more tax payment by multinational technology companies.

    He also fostered collaboration among the states through the Joint Tax Board and called for more tax payment by multinational technology companies.

    He believed that taxing mult-inational companies like Google, Apple, Twitter, Amazon, Facebook, Uber, eBay and banking software manufacturers will require new tax laws that capture their mode of operations.

    He said these firms deploy the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) rule to shift profits from the spots where economic activity and value creation occur into low or no-tax locations. The BEPS practice and absence of suitable tax laws have constrained the Nigerian tax authorities from taxing the digital economy.

    To reverse this trend, the FIRS under Fowler began engaging the National Assembly to amend the tax laws to align with changing technological advancement and halt tax revenue leakages from the digital space.

    DMO D-G Ms. Patience Oniha

    Director-General of Debt Management Office (DMO), Ms. Patience Oniha, within the year also introduced a 30-year FGN Bond.

    The bond was a design to increase the tenor of bonds available in the market and help create securities that would suit investors’ activities.

    The 30-year bond was issued in April as the usual FGN bond auction.

    Oniha said part of the considerations for the introduction was that while it borrows on behalf of the government subject to necessary approvals, the government, through its borrowing activities, also supports market developments trying to create securities that investors want to invest in to match their activities.

    “We introduced the 30-year bond to increase the tenor of bonds available in the market. The longest tenure we have had before now was the 20-year FGN bonds.

    The 30-year bond benefits government in two ways; one, it extends the tenor for proper management of our maturity so that debt service is easier and smoother.

    “But more importantly it’s actually the best form of money to use to finance infrastructure which the government is focused on to support the recovery that we have achieved, managing liabilities and financing infrastructure,” she said.

    Economic Highs and lows of 2019

    As noted in the opening paragraph of this report, all were not entirely low for the economy in 2019. Some modest achievements were recorded notwithstanding the numerous challenges.

    Economic Diversification

    The economic diversification policy of the incumbent administration away from its mainstay, oil though still fresh is beginning to show off positive outcomes especially in the agricultural sector.

    Recall that President Muhammadu Buhari recently banned the use of foreign exchange especially to food importers, an attempt to boost local agriculture across the country. If followed through by this administration and subsequent ones, the Nigeria might in no time declare sufficiency in food production.

    The country also recently declared whopping 5.2 billion naira (about 14.4 million U.S. dollars) trading surplus through the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) for the month of August. The figure is a 22 percent increase on the 4.26 billion naira surplus posted in July and this, experts believe, is a clear indication that the national oil company can indeed operate profitably.

    The value of Nigeria’s total trade in third quarter of 2019 stood at 9,187.6 billion naira, representing a 6.77 percent increase over the value recorded in second quarter of 2019 and a 1.33 percent increase on third quarter of 2018.

    Although there was a slight decline in import figure, the increase in export led to a positive trade balance of 1,389.3 billion naira during the period under review.

    Global Rating Agencies’ red flag on Nigeria’s economy

    Nigeria’s current account (CA) balance has shifted to deficit from a long-standing surplus, pointing to deteriorating macroeconomic imbalances and adding to external vulnerability.

    Owing to this and some other concerns, Fitch, one of the leading global rating agencies, anticipated that the CA in Nigeria would record a deficit of 1.6 per cent of GDP in 2019, its second-weakest level in 24 years, after a surplus of 2.6 per cent in 2018.

    “Fitch forecasts the CA deficit will moderate to an average of 0.7 per cent of GDP in 2020-2021,” it stated this in its latest rating on Nigeria, where it revised the outlook on Nigeria’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating (IDR) to ‘Negative’ from ‘Stable,’ but affirmed the country’s rating at ‘B+’.

    It also pointed out that general government (GG) debt in the country remains on an upward path, while particularly low fiscal revenues and structural shortcomings in public finance management (PFM) constrain its ability to support a rising debt burden.

    According to Fitch, the GG debt/revenue ratio is particularly high, at 333 per cent (Federal government (FGN), debt: 777%) in 2019, and will rise close to 400 per cent (FGN debt: 922%) in 2021, well above the forecast ‘B’ median of 248 per cent.

    As a result of this, it stated that Nigeria’s medium-term economic outlook was subdued. Fitch also projected an average GDP growth of 2.4 per cent for the country between 2019 and 2021.

    This, it stated would be well below the ‘B’ median of 3.4 per cent and the five-year average demographic growth rate of 2.7 per cent.

    “The prospects for supply-side, fiscal and exchange-regime reforms that could tackle the major constraints for Nigeria’s credit profile are weak, as reflected by the record in recent years. Emerging rivalries within the ruling APC party, possibly sparked by early dissensions over the 2023 succession to president Buhari, could hamper policy-making,” it stated.

    Prior to the Fitch Ratings, Moody’s Investors Service, another global credit rating agency, had also changed its outlook on Nigeria’s ratings to negative from stable.

    According to the rating agency, the negative outlook reflected Moody’s view of increasing risks to the government’s fiscal strength and external position.

    It explained: “Already weak government finances will likely weaken further given an extremely narrow revenue base and persistently sluggish growth that hinders fiscal consolidation.

    “As pressure mount, there is a risk that the government resorts to increasingly opaque and costly options to finance a moderate but rising debt burden.

    “Moreover, vulnerability to an adverse change in capital flows is building in light of Nigeria’s increasing reliance on foreign investors to fund the country’s foreign exchange reserves.”

    Explaining the reason for the drop, Moody said: “Concurrently, Moody’s has maintained Nigeria’s country risk ceilings at their current levels: Foreign Currency bond ceiling at B1, Foreign Currency deposit ceiling at B3, and Local Currency bond and deposit ceilings at Ba1.”

    Depleting External Reserves

    So far, in 2019, the country’s external reserves have depreciated by 10.5 per cent or $4.105 billion, from the $43.075 billion it was at the beginning of the year, to $38.970 billion as of December 19.

    The decline was attributed mainly to foreign exchange market interventions and direct payments. The external reserves position could finance 5.3 months of imports of goods and services, or 9.3 months of goods only, using the import figure for second quarter 2019.

    A breakdown of the external reserves by ownership showed that the share of the Federation reserves was US$0.32 billion (0.8%); Federal Government, US$6.09 billion (15.7%); and the CBN, US$32.37 billion (83.5%)

    Hovering Inflation

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is used to gauge the level of inflation in the country hovered around 11 per cent in 2019, despite concerns of inflationary pressure since the closure of all the country’s land borders. From the 11.35 per cent it was in January, the CPI stood at 11.85 per cent at the end of November 2019. The CPI for November released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had shown that food inflation rose to 14.48 per cent compared to 14.09 per cent in the preceding month The CPI report attributed the rise in the food index to increases in the prices of bread, cereals, oils and fats, meat, potatoes, yams and other tubers, and fish.

    The average annual rate of change of the food sub-index for the 12-month period ending November over the previous 12-month average was 13.65 per cent, 0.11 percentage points from the 13.54 per cent in October.

    Tight Monetary Policy

    The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met a total of six times this year. The benchmark monetary policy rate (MPR) which was at 14 per cent at the beginning of the year, was lowered to 13.5 per cent after the first two months, and was left at that rate throughout the year.

    The central bank deployed a lot of unorthodox monetary policies, using its development finance mandate, in its quest to reflate the economy.

    The CBN Governor, Mr. Godwin Emefiele, who during the year, was reappointed for a second term of five years by President Muhammadu Buhari, has continued to defend the central bank’s unconventional monetary policy.

    The CBN governor explained that just like fiscal policy, monetary policy could, at a time when development challenges abound, complement the efforts of fiscal policy in employment generation, wealth creation and attainment of other growth objectives.

    He highlighted countries such as the United States of America, Brazil, among others, that had to rely on unconventional monetary in times of economic difficulties to resuscitate growth.

    “Within the CBN, our unconventional methods (especially in the management of the forex market and our development financing) supported by the orthodox approaches (in the form of our timely adjustments of monetary policy rate) have been able to optimally balance the delicate objectives of price stability and real output growth.

    “We will continue to develop policy instruments and device ways of ensuring that an optimal mix of heterodox policies is continually deployed to engender the overall wellbeing and prosperity of the Nigerian economy. Our overall aim remains the concurrent attainment of price stability, real growth, full employment, and poverty reduction,” he added.

    The movers and shakers of the economy in the outgoing year as seen in different sectors contribute in no small measure to sustained economic growth within the year.

    Nevertheless, Nigerian banks’ non-performing loans (NPLs) reduced to 6.6 per cent at the end of October compared to the 14.1 per cent it was in 2018.

    This was the first time the NPLs would drop to a single digit in the past 42 months.

  • Why do you go to church? Femi Aribisala

    By Femi Aribisala

    In the scriptures, Jesus paid a visit to a General Hospital, which turned out to be a church where people came for spiritual healing. The place was full of sick people. Some had been suffering of malaria for ten years. Some had been afflicted with flu for twelve years. Others had cough for fifteen years.

    Jeremiah wondered about this kind of situation. He asked: “Is there no balm in Gilead, is there no physician there? Why then is there no recovery for the health of the daughter of my people?” (Jeremiah 8:22).

    John observes that: “A certain man was there who had an infirmity thirty-eight years. When Jesus saw him lying there, and knew that he already had been in that condition a long time, he said to him, ‘Do you want to be made well?’” (John 5:5-6).

    He had been in church for 38 years, nevertheless, his infirmity was so malignant it refused to obey the word of God. For 38 years, he had been a liar and yet he was regular in church. For 38 years, he had been a thief, and yet he was the chief usher.

    For 38 years he had been a fornicator, and yet he was the choir director. For 38 years he had been an alcoholic, and yet he was the pastor. For 38 years he had been a gossip, a cheat, a backbiter, and a lover of money. He remained covetous, malicious, quarrelsome, worldly, and proud.

    Church-Hospital

    At the General Hospital in Bethesda, Jesus asked the man who has been sick for 38 years: “Do we want to be healed?” He asks the same question of us today: “Are we interested in being healed at all?”

    That is the crux of the problem. We are sick and we keep coming to the hospital, but we are not interested in being healed. We are not interested in being changed. We are not interested in being transformed. We are dying of leprosy but we are not interested in being cleansed. So why do we keep coming to church? Don’t we know the church is a hospital?

    We go to church to see and be seen, rather than to hear and be healed. We go to church to fulfill righteousness than to be made wise unto salvation. We go to church to show off our latest clothing and our new hairstyle than to worship God. We spend more time trying to decide which clothes to wear to the church service and which shoes and bags to match than to secure the grace that is sufficient unto the day.

    Now that you are back home from that wonderful service, what have you achieved? What did you learn there? What did you receive? How many compliments did you get about your new dress? What did they think about the way you sang that special number? What was the reaction to your testimony about your new job? Was that fine girl in church? Did she notice you?

    Hearing ear

    But did you hear the gospel? If you hear we will be healed. The scripture cannot be broken. If you are not healed after all these years, it either means that you have not heard or have simply not believed or are simply not interested.

    Jesus says: “Take heed what you hear. With the same measure you use, it will be measured to you; and to you who hear, more will be given.” (Mark 4:24). “Behold, I stand at the door and knock. If anyone hears my voice and opens the door, I will come in to him and dine with him, and he with me.” (Revelation 3:20). “Most assuredly, I say to you, the hour is coming, and now is, when the dead will hear the voice of the Son of God; and those who hear will live.” (John 5:25).

    So, what have you heard? Have you heard that if you sow 100 naira you will reap 1000, or have you heard that if you sow righteousness you will reap mercy? Have you heard that the seed is money or have you heard that the seed is the word of God?

    Have you heard that angels drop bags of blessings before the praise worship? Have you heard that if you change your church you will be cursed? Have you heard that if you wear earrings or smoke cigarettes you will not go to heaven? Have you heard that if you are a Christian and don’t have a car it is an insult to God? What exactly have you heard?

    Have you heard that the soul that sins will die? Have you heard that fornicators and adulterers will not inherit the kingdom of God? Have you heard that drunkards don’t go to heaven? Have you heard that quarrelsome people, backbiters and gossips don’t spend eternity with God?

    If so, why do you persist in these things? Do you plan to continue in them for the next 38 years?

    Jesus says: “My sheep hear my voice, and I know them, and they follow me.” (John 10:27). “Yet they will by no means follow a stranger, but will flee from him, for they do not know the voice of strangers.” (John 10:5),

    Do you go to church to hear the voice of Jesus or do you go to hear the voice of strangers?

    Hoodwinked

    Paul marveled at the Corinthian church: “You have such admirable tolerance for impostors who rob your freedom, rip you off, steal you blind, put you down- even slap your face.” (2 Corinthians 11:19-20).

    So, tell me, why are you a member of your church? You have been there for thirty-eight years and have still not been healed of your infirmities; yet you remain. You know your pastor is sleeping with a chorister; yet you remain. Every Sunday you are harassed into giving more offering than you would like or can afford; yet you remain.

    You remain, not for the sake of Christ, but for the sake of men. You remain because of social and soul ties. You remain because your pastor has style. You remain because that was the church your parents went to. You remain because your friends are in the church. You remain because your business associates are in the church. You remain because you have been hoodwinked by another gospel.

    Why do we receive in our churches the traditions of men? Where does it say in the scriptures it is a sin to leave your church for another one? Where does it say your so-called tithes are unacceptable as gifts to children of the Motherless Babies Home? Where does it say if a woman wears trousers or earrings she would be disqualified from heaven? Where does it say you have to go to Bible College before you can be baptised?

    Answer such questions not by reference to your pastor’s dictates, or by reference to the conventions of your church, but by the word of God.

    Jesus says: “These people draw near to me with their mouth, and honor me with their lips, but their heart is far from me. And in vain they worship me, teaching as doctrines the commandments of men.” (Matthew 15:8-9).

  • Nigeria back to military era when citizens were detained without trial – Okogie

    Former Catholic Archbishop of Lagos, Anthony Okogie, says Nigeria is back to the era of military dictatorship.

    Okogie said Nigeria’s leaders are distant from the citizens, and that the country needs leaders who listen to the cries of the people and who will not be afraid of dissenting opinions.

    He also condemned the frequent disobedience of court by the current administration, and said leaders must be reminded that “they cannot enforce laws if they cannot obey the law”.

    Okogie who made the remarks in a statement he issued on Friday said, “If the executive disobeys court rulings, and if it intimidates and humiliates the judiciary, then we are back to the era when a military junta made laws and interpreted them without any regard for fundamental human rights,” the cardinal said.

    He said for democracy to be in force, those elected to represent the people must have a listening ear, and must not usurp the powers to accuse and convict at the same time.

    “In a democracy, those who govern are chosen by the people to represent the people. And if they are to represent the people, they must listen to the people. Not only do true democrats listen, they also are not afraid of dissenting opinions,” he said.

    “They do not arrogate to themselves the power to accuse, arrest, prosecute and convict. But can we candidly say we have democrats at the helm of affairs in this country at this point in time?

    “How can we claim to live in a democracy when presidential spokespersons tell us the presidency is always right?”

    Okogie also decried the worsening insecurity in the country, and said Nigeria has returned to a “sinful past” when citizens could be abducted and locked up in detention without trial “under the pretext of acting in the interest of national security”.

  • Police arrest man who killed 38 people in Edo

    The Police in Edo said on Monday in Benin that it had arrested a man alleged to be a cultist and serial killer with 38 victims.

    A statement signed by DSP Chidi Nwabuzor, spokesperson of the Police Command in the state, said that the suspect was arrested last Tuesday following the receipt of credible intelligence.

    Nwabuzor said that the 37-year-old suspect was on a mission to kill a victim (names withheld) before his arrest.

    He also said that on his arrest, the suspect was immediately searched during which two guns were found on him.

    He further explained that the suspect was thereafter taken to the State Criminal Investigation Department for further interrogation where he made useful statements and confessed to the killing of 38 people.

    Nwabuzor said that a further search was carried out at the suspect’s residence, where a double barrel gun was recovered.

    The spokesman, however, said that the state’s Commissioner of Police, CP Mohammed DanMallam, had directed further investigation into the case.

    He appealed to law abiding citizens of the state to go about their normal businesses.

    He quoted DanMallam as warning criminal elements in the state to submit themselves to the police or vacate the state or face the consequences.

    According to Nwabuzor, the commissioner warned that under his watch, the command is ready to flush out criminals or bring them to justice through due process.

  • Al-Bashir, Bouteflika and Change in Africa

    By Owei Lakemfa.

    As part of international delegations, I met Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir thrice when he was President of Sudan. At the first meeting, the gate had opened and there was a land rover-like jeep with a handful of soldiers. I had reflected that the State House seemed lightly guarded.

    Even state governors in Nigeria seemed far better protected. We were ushered into what I thought was a waiting room. We chatted and were waiting to be ushered to the President’s presence, only for him to appear.

    On those occasions, the discussions were free-flowing and some of my colleagues appeared quite familiar with him. On the third occasion, when I was introduced to him as the Secretary-General of the Organisation of African Trade Union Unity (OATUU) he shook me warmly and asked what had happened to his friend and namesake (My predecessor, Alhaji Hassan Sunmonu)

    He seemed to me a Pan-Africanist of sort who was quite interested in happenings on the continent and what groups and movements can do to solve our continental problems. I was not really surprised because he had been a para trooper in the Egyptian Army which had been greatly influenced by Nasserism.

    Bashir came across as an African President who could have been quite useful under different circumstances. But his administration was crowded by lots crises, some predating his government that turned him into a leader striving to survive and thereby playing sometimes, contradictory games. For instance, the Sudanese Civil War between the mainly Muslim North and primarily Christian South, had begun in 1955 and ended in 1972 with the Addis Ababa Agreement.

    It resumed in 1983 and the Bashir government had to sign the Nairobi Comprehensive Peace Agreement on January 9, 2005, granting South Sudan autonomy for six years. On July 9, 2011, a referendum split the country into two independent states. It was a trying period first because the coup that brought Bashir to power was on the back of an anti-South Sudan Independence Movement. Secondly, most of the country’s rich oil wells were in the South. It was partly due to his deft diplomatic moves that shortly after the split, he became a mediator between the two warring parties in newly independent South Sudan who had turned the guns on themselves.

    Another major challenge he faced was the herder-farmer conflicts following droughts in the Darfur Region. The quite violent conflict between the pro-government Janjaweed militia and the anti-government rebel groups like the Sudanese Liberation Army (SLA) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) claimed many lives and displaced nearly a third of the Darfur population.

    In March 2009, the International Criminal Court (ICC) indicted Bashir for crimes against the Darfur populace. The ICC said he was: “suspected of being criminally responsible, as an indirect co-perpetrator”.

    The African Union (AU) rejected this indictment and a subsequent warrant of arrest, not only because the ICC did not provide any conclusive evidence against al-Bashir and his government, but it also saw it as a flagrant intervention in a conflict the AU and the United Nations had intervened and taken steps to send in peace keepers.

    President Muammar Gaddafi of Libya, who was AU Chairman said the indictment was a type of terrorism and an attempt by the West to recolonize Africa. Ironically, when in 2011, the West moved against Ghadaffi using Islamic terrorists and street gangs, the Bashir government supported the rebels on the basis that Ghadaffi once supported rebels in Sudan.

    The same tendency to betray principled people, apparently in an attempt to get the West off his back, had played out in 1994 when Bashir sold out the inimitable pro-Palestinian fighter, Ilich Ramirez Sanchez better known as Carlos the Jackal to the French Secret Service. The French kidnapped Carlos in Sudan, smuggled him to Paris and slapped three life sentences on him.

    Bashir’s main undoing was not knowing when to quit. When a peoples’ revolt broke out in December 2018 initially demanding cheaper bread and a better economy, before snow balling into a demand for his removal, the general could not read the situation correctly. But “thawra!” ( Arabic for revolution) had come; it swept him off on April 11.

    Abdelaziz Bouteflika, President of Algeria for twenty years from 1999 until a mass peoples’ movement forced him out on April 2, was a political giant in the country. In 1962, at 25, he was appointed the Minister of Youths and Sports. He later became Defence Minister, Foreign Minister, and in 1974, President of the United Nations General Assembly. He was also Prime Minister and had the distinction in 2002 of ending the quite bloody Algerian Civil War by roundly defeating the Islamic terrorists and ending the state of emergency in 2011.

    I was in Algeria a couple of times, and witnessed a highly respected President even after he had a stroke in 2013. At 19, he joined the National Liberation Army, the military wing of the National Liberation Front which wrestled the country from French colonialists in one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th Century.

    As Chairman of the AU, he successfully pulled off the Algiers Peace Treaty that ended the Ethiopia-Eritrea Border War which claimed 70,000-120,000 lives. He was quite sick in 2005 and suffered a stroke in 2013. Despite this, he contested and won the Presidential elections in 2014 by 81 percent. Although unable to run the affairs of state, he ill-advisedly announced on February 10, 2019, that he was seeking re-election. That was his undoing. Mass protests brought him down.

    Despite these events, Algeria and Sudan are a few of the best run African countries we have with a sense of historical duty, responsibility to the populace and a Pan Africanist spirit; many like Nigeria have simply collapsed into the neo-colonial mode, swimming along with the dictates of foreign masters and the tidal waves they unleash.

    The hope is that the middle class and the masses that have triggered the tidal waves of change in both countries, can steer the course and enthrone genuine pro-people change so that the revolutions are not aborted like those in Egypt and Tunisia. Africa needs genuine, people-centred, development-oriented change. Not the cosmetic changes with lots of motion without movement as in Nigeria, or from frying pan to fire like in Egypt.

    Change in Egypt has been a monumental tragedy; from a secular dictator, Hosni Mubarak, to a religious fanatic, Mohammed Morsi, to a brutal fascist, Abdel Fattah El-Sisi who has no restraints in his rule books. But as Africa arose from the ashes of the slave trade and the grave of colonialism, so shall she rise from its current tragedies. Change is natural; its genuine winds shall blow through our mother continent