By Mideno Bayagbon
(mideno@thenewsguru.ng)
It is the week of primaries across the two major political parties, nationwide. Already, candidates are beginning to emerge for all the roles that need filling up in May 2023. States Houses of Assembly, House of Representatives, and Senate candidates, except in places where exigencies led to the postponement of the primaries, are now known. As at press time, across the country, it has been surprisingly calm. Only one fatality, in Ogbia local government of Bayelsa state, has been reported. Very unlike the usual fare where thuggery and bloodshed are the common denominator.
We have even had the rare privilege of seeing a defeated candidate, Orode Uduaghan, daughter of former Delta State Governor, Dr Emmanuel Uduaghan, congratulating her opponent who beat her at the primaries. A commendable gesture.
But all our eyes are on the big one: the presidential primaries of the All Progressives Congress, APC; and the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. Whoever emerges in any of the parties will give us an indication of what 2023 and after holds in stock for Nigeria and Nigerians. For now however, the two parties are playing hide and seek with each other. They each want the other to conduct their primaries first. So in this game of the mind, it might come to the last minute before we eventually get to know who each party has selected to carry its flag. The suspicion is that both of them want to field candidates from the same geographical zone; but, if only they think they have a better candidate who can floor the opponent in the election from that same zone.
In this calculations, for example, if PDP were to pick Alhaji Atiku Abubakar as its flag bearer, the fear within the APC will be that there is no Southern candidate who can match him in the north. So APC will not want to field an Alhaji Bola Tinubu who may want to present a Moslem-Moslem ticket: Alhaji Bola Ahmed Tinubu and an Alhaji Abdullahi Umar Ganduje pair, which was on the card before Kwankwaso and Shekarau tore Ganduje’s remaining political capital to shreds, recently.
There will be great revulsion in the South and Christian north against a Tinubu Moslem-Moslem ticket even though Tinubu has always believed that it can be managed, that he can swing it. Yet it was because Buhari and his minders did not believe, despite Tinubu’s assurances, that it can sail through in today’s religious, geographically and ethnically fractured Nigeria, that an Osinbajo, and not Tinubu ended up as Vice President to Buhari.
Nevertheless, were he to present the former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babachir Lawal, a Christian, or even the current one, Boss Mustapha, another Christian, the fear will be that the average Northern Moslem does not consider a Moslem from the South as a proper Moslem so will be suspicious of a Tinubu candidacy parading a Northern Christian. Again the average Northern Moslem may not feel comfortable enough to cast their vote for a Northern Christian as their Vice Presidential representative. Not if blood thirsty radicals like Isa Ali Pantami, Buhari’s Aso Rock imam and minister for Communication and Digital Economy, and his bunch have a say.
True, Tinubu says it has always been his life ambition to be President of Nigeria. True, too, he and his camp believe this is his God ordained time to achieve that feat. There is no doubt that he is one of the top three, if not the top candidate for the APC ticket. With his wealth, pedigree and political connections in the north, perhaps but for a few attenuating factors, this could actually be his time. But close watchers of his ambitious foray, aver that Tinubu’s boisterous optimism is hiding three critical fears. First, his age. This is perhaps the last and only opportunity the one his admirers fondly call Jagaban or Asiwaju, has to claim the presidency of NIgeria. He will be well into his 80s before another opportunity presents itself.
Moreover, the President’s notorious body language, and schemings by his close associates, do not seem to suggest that Tinubu has the President’s critical support. To put it mildly, he is not the Villa’s candidate. He would have to deploy massive counter offensives, which some reckon in Naira, Dollars and Pound Sterling to make a headway.
Then there is the little matter of his health. Should he miss it this time, it is mostly likely the end of the road for his ambition to rule Nigeria. By the time another opportunity knocks, he will be too old, too frail to be of any contention. So for Asiwaju, this primaries is a do or die affair.
So comes in Senate President Ahmed Lawan. He is from the same North East like Atiku Abubakar and a Moslem like him. Seemingly drafted into the race, in the last minute, he is the openly hidden hands of the die hard irredentists who want power to remain in the North, at all cost. No doubt, he can easily get one of the so called Southern aspirants to kowtow to him as vice presidential candidate. Black sheep like Senator Orji Uzor Kalu, whose South Eastern region has been clamouring for the presidential slot of the parties to be zoned to them, has already jumped ship, hoping to be the one, despite the heavy political baggage he carries, who will be selected to be Vice Presidential candidate to Lawan. But this is politics in Nigeria where a bunch of people with criminal codes are among those who make laws and determine the future of the country.
Like Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is on his last leg as an aspirant for the exalted position. He is about 76 years old currently. This is for him too a-do-or-die affair. Yet of all the candidates, in both parties, he is the one who has wanted it the most. He is the most prepared but age and zoning sentiments are not looking good for him. He is giving it his all but whether his all will convince Southern leaders and delegates to make him, yet again, PDP’s candidate is the waiting game we all have to participate in.
Lets stretch the permutation further. Lets say APC comes up with an Osinbajo or an Amaechi, with potential of having a strong Northern Moslem as Vice. Will the PDP retaliate with a Peter Obi, who is currently riding high in the public mind, but is relatively unknown in the north; or a Nyesom Wike, the self-acclaimed mad man ready to fix the country? Of course they will go for a strong Moslem Vice Presidential candidate.
What an interesting time it would be if the choices were Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo (APC), versus a Peter Obi (PDP); or Rotimi Amaechi (APC) vs Nyesom Wike or Bala Mohammed, or Anyim Pius Anyim (PDP). Seemingly possible scenario: Atiku Abubakar versus Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
Well I am commenting as an outsider not privy to the last minute horse trading going on in the conclaves of the two parties. But one thing is sure: no Nigerian alive today can conveniently predict who will emerge the candidates of the two parties. It is that fluid. But a wild guess: Atiku Abubakar (PDP) versus Ahmed Lawan (APC). Rotimi Amaechi for President is a very high possibility.
