Tag: Tambuwal

By Mideno Bayagbon

(08055069059 Whatsapp)

 

For the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in the South of Nigeria, when it comes to the 2023 presidential elections, hands are raised up, in total surrender! Forget the recent election of former Senate President, Iyorchia Ayu, a Middle belter, as the new chairman of the party. Under normal circumstances, that election would have been a pointer to where the PDP wants to zone its presidential slot to: Southern Nigeria. But except something dramatic happens in the immediate near future, the hope of the PDP fielding its presidential candidate from the South is, currently, a pipe dream. The settled decision is that the PDP will field a northerner, no matter from what zone its main rival, the the All Progressives Congress (APC) picks its candidate from. The focus of the strategic thinkers of the party is on how to present a united front that is solid enough to defeat the ruling APC in the elections of 2023.

 

It is true that some aspirants in the south have subtly and even overtly indicated interest in running for the office. Two South South Governors, Nyesom Wike and Udom Emmanuel have joined a few South Easterners in showing half interest in vying for the office. The Distinguished Anyim Pius Anyim, a former Senate President, has vowed to contest for the office whether the PDP zones the office to the East or not. How this will play out eventually is up for conjecture. The feeling is that the former Secretary to Government of the Federation is positioning high while hoping to be picked for the vice presidential slot. The party’s political king makers, spoken to are still at sea, without a clue whether Peter Obi wants to run for the office or again wants to position for the office of Vice President to any northern candidate the party will throw up.

 

Above, notwithstanding, it is an open secret in the party that Rivers state governor, Nyesom Wike has a seemingly solid arrangement with Sokoto state governor, Aminu Tambuwal, to pair up to vie for the office. But Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, current governor of Delta state has his eyes on either going back to the Senate and working to emerge as Senate President or fight it out with Wike and Emmanuel to be vice president to a Tambuwal or Atiku. That is, if the party zones the VP position to the South South zone.

 

What is, however, becoming very clear in the party, is that leading aspirants have emerged out of about seven northern candidates who are angling for the position. The three leaders who have emerged in the race are Atiku Abubakar, Bukola Abubakar Saraki and Sokoto State governor, Aminu Tambuwal. But for his age, which many currently see as a huge draw back, the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, would have been head and shoulders above Saraki and Tambuwal. Nevertheless, it is as if a repeat of the 2014 presidential primaries of the party is going for an encore, as the then three leading candidates are yet the three front runners as the road to the race shortens.

 

Atiku Abubakar will be 76 in 2023, and should he win the election, he will be 80 years old in 2027 when he will be due for reelection. Many leaders in the PDP are worried that though he is still seemingly very strong for his age, they ask if an old man is what Nigeria needs now to confront the many hydra-headed problems which the government of General Muhammadu Buhari has foisted on the nation. While most acknowledge that, with his pedigree, an Atiku presidency will likely throw up a mixture of solid professionals and capable politicians to take hold of strategic points of the economy, they nonetheless still nurse doubts about the impact his age will have on governance. This is where a Bukola Saraki and Aminu Tambuwal come into serious reckoning.

 

Bukola Saraki, no doubt has had his eyes on the presidency for a long time. He has tried to build a formidable structure, nationwide, in preparation for the primaries which are just a few months away. Among his many strategic thrust include building a team of like minded Nigerians who came out, recently, to claim they are bent on rescuing Nigeria from the deadly morass into which it has sunk with the seemingly nepotistic administration of the current occupier of Aso Rock. Though he has tried not to show his hands there, it is nonetheless clear to political observers that should he fail to win the candidacy of the PDP, this will be a platform he hopes to use to try and achieve his ambition.

 

The group without a clear ideological leaning is bent on wresting power from the old oligarchs of the north represented by President Buhari. The fear among this group is that the country can break if no urgent measures are taken to keep it one. That is why there have been attempts by them to make it a national movement. But as at the last count, it is still heavily dominated by politicians in the middle belt and the core north generally.

 

But two major issues stand in Saraki’s way. First, he is currently without a home base. Kwara, where he was once king has been swept from under his feet. The Otoge Movement which his enemies in Aso Rock and in Kwara sponsored against him had such a devastating effect that in large part of the state, those who used to hail him now openly call for his crucification.

 

Also, though he lays claim to the Fulani heritage, and though he is a moslem, he is still viewed with suspicion in some sections of the north who do not fully accept him as one who will go all out to protect the interest of the elites packaged as the interest of the north. They see him more as a Yoruba man than as a Fulani even though he has in recent years tried to play down his name Bukola in preference for Abubakar. But as a former governor and a former Senate President, there is no doubt that Saraki has build a large friendship base across the country that he can depend on to run for the office.

 

Aminu Tambuwal is another kettle of fish altogether. He is one of the aces the system in the north is holding close to its chest. He has had his eyes on the presidency for the past ten years or so. He had to be persuaded to take the governorship of Sokoto state before the 2014 primaries so that the north can present a united front behind Buhari. With his major pedigree as Speaker of the House of Representatives, the below par performing governor of Sokoto state, as stated earlier, pushed his luck too in the 2018 PDP primaries but was defeated by Atiku Abubakar who had some Generals whose intervention at the primaries helped to sway it to the former Vice President. Before then, Rivers State governor, Nyesom Wike, who thought he had the party in his pocket because he was the major financial of its operations, and also because he had a large swathe of the party executives on his side, had wanted to swing it to the Sokoto state governor.

 

Tambuwal has since concentrated his efforts in building a core group of supporters in the north. All former and current National Assembly members receive one Tambuwal largesse or the other on a regular basis as a way of building a core of loyalists who can help swing the critical, deciding votes during the party’s primary, coming up in the next few months.

 

Tambuwal of course has tried to build a group of loyalists in most critical sectors of Nigeria’s political economy. He has tried to even put in place a group of journalists too who will look after his interest in the media. He is positioning as the candidate of the core north and his chances may not be affected by the lack of significance his administration has made in the affairs of Sokoto state.

 

What will shock people as the days go by, is that should the road become too rocky for him in the PDP to achieve his ambition, Tambuwal, who is a governor under the PDP can easily switch and position himself in the APC to vie for the post if eventually it becomes inevitable that it is the north which will present the candidate of the APC for the elections in 2023.