TheNewsGuru

Tag: World Bank

  • Reps set to probe World Bank’s $300m Malaria IMPACT Funds

    Reps set to probe World Bank’s $300m Malaria IMPACT Funds

     

     

    The House of Representatives has mandated its relevant committees to investigate the late/non-disbursement of the $300 million World Bank supported Immunisation Plus and Malaria Progress by Accelerating Coverage and Transforming Services Project (IMPACT) funds in Nigeria.

    The move was sequel to the adoption of a motion of public importance, on the urgent need to investigate Nigeria’s losses in fight against Malaria, promoted by Benjamin Kalu (APC Abia) and two others at plenary on Wednesday.

    The World Bank’s IMPACT fund is a project facility designed as a vehicle to fast-track government’s intervention in malaria to reduce under-five mortality in the Nigeria for 13 beneficiary states.

    The committees, including those on AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria Control; Health Services; and Health Institutions
    are to also conduct an investigation into the reported underperformance and down rating of the National Malaria Elimination Programme (NMEP) by the office of the Inspector General of the Global Fund and report back in six weeks.

    Debating the motion Kalu said Nigeria alone accounts for 27 percent of malaria cases and 31 percent of malaria deaths worldwide, with malaria killing no fewer than 200,000 Nigerians and afflicting 61 million others in 2021.

    The lawmaker observed that despite efforts to contain malaria, Nigeria loses over $1.1 billion (N645.7 billion) yearly to prevention and treatment of the disease as well as other costs.

    He said, “the House is aware that Nigeria made notable progress in the scaling up and impact of malaria interventions over the years. For instance, utilization of mosquito nets in children less than five years of age increased significantly, from 6% to 49% and parasite prevalence also came down from 42% in 2010 to 23% in 2018.

    “Concerned however, that the recent 2021 Malaria Indicator survey analysis shows that Nigeria is sliding back with a parasite prevalence of 32%.

    “Aware that National Malaria Elimination Programme (NMEP) is the body responsible for formulating and facilitating policy and guidelines, coordinating the activities of partners and stakeholders on malaria control activities, providing technical support to states malaria programs, LGAs and stakeholders; mobilizing resources, monitoring and evaluating progress and outcomes in malaria elimination efforts across the country.

    “Worried by a recent report from the Office of the Inspector General of the Global Fund dated March 24, 2022, indicating that NMEP has fallen from a B1 to B2 rating within 6 months, an unfortunate trend that undermines Nigeria’s shot at accessing future grants and partnerships in the fight to eliminate Malaria’.

    The lawmaker said Nigeria is presently one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Global Fund grant with the current grant 2021 to 2023 value of $ 412 million.

    He expressed concern that the global fund grant is under threat due to poor absorption, poor performance and lack of domestic resource mobilisation which will have a negative impact in the next grant allocation and other partnership opportunities.

    Further noted that: the effect of this poor performance by NMEP is already evident in the fact that the World Health Organization (WHO) has now neglected Nigeria in favour of Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi for the roll out of the RTS-S/AS01 malaria vaccine.

    He said, “the House is mindful that with the onset of the rainy season, Nigeria is in dire need of malaria interventions.

    “Recalls that on 2nd December 2020 the Federal Government inaugurated the National Steering Committee of World Bank Supported Immunization Plus and Malaria Progress by Accelerating Coverage and Transforming Services Project (IMPACT), a $300 million project facility designed as a vehicle to fast-track government’s intervention in malaria to reduce under-five mortality in the Nigeria for 13 beneficiary states.

    “Concerned that almost 2 years later, despite the preparedness of the World Bank and the Islamic Bank to disburse the funds, the IMPACT Project is yet to commence.

    “Further concerned that in the past year, non-WHO approved mosquito nets have been procured and distributed in Nigeria without any rejection of this product by the leadership of the National Malaria Programme.

    “Worried that more of these non-WHO approved mosquito nets are being imported into Nigeria despite a resolution by this House calling for the prioritization of local content in the procurement of Malaria commodities.

    “Concerned that if nothing is done to address the underperformance of NMEP and improve the quality of malaria interventions in Nigeria, our dear country will continue to lose over $1.1 billion (N645.7 billion) yearly in addition to hundreds of thousands of lives”.

    The house adopted the motion and invited the leadership of the National Malaria Programme to explain why defective mosquito nets are still being procured, imported and distributed in Nigeria against World Health Organization standards and local content directives from this House.

    It also urged the Federal Ministry of Health, the National Malaria Programme, and other relevant Ministries, Departments and Agencies to comply with the resolution to prioritise local content when procuring Malaria Commodities using funds from the IMPACT projects facility.

  • NGF, World Bank, Ministers, to meet over economic crisis

    NGF, World Bank, Ministers, to meet over economic crisis

    Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF) will be meeting with officials of the World Bank and three key ministers today (Tuesday) to discuss the worsening economic crisis, including galloping inflation, weakened currency, rising unemployment and deepening poverty in the country.

    It will be the 5th teleconference meeting of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF).

    The Director General of the forum, Mr. Asishana Bayo Okauru, confirmed this in a statement, saying: “The economy will dominate the meeting, as Minister of Finance, Budget and Planning, Hajiya Zainab Ahmed and the World Bank, led by its Country Director, Dr. Shubham Chadhuri, and other key stakeholders in the economic sector make presentations.”

  • COVID-19 vaccines: World Bank approves $474m loan to S.Africa

    The World Bank on Tuesday approved a loan of 454.4 million euros (474.4 million dollars) to help South Africa fund COVID-19 vaccine purchases.

    The bank and South Africa’s National Treasury in a statement said South Africa has recorded the most coronavirus cases and deaths on the African continent, with over 3.9 million confirmed cases and more than 101,000 deaths.

    It initially struggled to secure vaccines due to limited supplies and protracted negotiations, but it was now well-supplied with doses.

    “This project will retroactively finance the procurement of 47 million COVID-19 vaccine doses by the GoSA (Government of South Africa),” the statement said.

    Ismail Momoniat, acting director-general of the Treasury said the loan was part of government efforts to cut debt-service costs by using cheaper funding sources in its response to the pandemic.

    As of Monday, just over 50 per cent of South Africa’s adult population of around 40 million people had received at least one vaccine dose.

    In recent months the vaccination campaign has slowed, despite efforts to boost take up.

  • Ukraine: World Bank predicts more Nigerians’ll plunge into extreme poverty

    Again, a new report of the World Bank has predicted that more people in Nigeria and its Sub-Saharan neighbours are expected to plunge into extreme poverty.

    The report published in the World Bank newsletter titled, “Global Economic Prospects,” disclosed that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its effect on the commodity market, supply chains, inflation, and financial conditions have intensified the slowdown in economic growth.

    The Washington-based bank further explained that the possibility of high global inflation could eventually result in tightened monetary policy in advanced countries which might lead to financial stress on emerging markets and developing economies.

    The report also quoted the World Bank President, David Malpass, as saying that the world was facing the deepest global recession since World War II.

    He said, “The global economy is facing high inflation and slow growth at the same time. Even if a global recession is averted, the pain of stagflation could persist for several years- unless major supply increases are set in motion.”

    The report added that growth in Sub -Saharan Africa is projected to slow to 3.7 per cent this year reflecting forecast downgrades of over 60 per cent of regional economies. Price pressures, partly induced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are sharply reducing food affordability and real incomes across the regions.

    The report read, “More people in SSA are expected to fall into extreme poverty, especially in countries reliant on imports of food, and fuel. Fiscal space is narrowing further as the government ramps up spending on subsidies, support to farmers, and in some countries, security.

    “However, the impact of the war will vary across countries, as elevated commodity prices will help soften the damaging effects of high inflation in some large commodity exporters”.

    Among the risks to the forecast, prolonged disruptions to food supply across the region could significantly increase poverty, hunger, and malnutrition, while persistent inflation could ignite stagflation risks and further limit policy space to support recoveries.

    An elevated cost of living could increase the risk of social unrest, especially in low-income countries.

    On how the global economic situation could worsen the poverty level in Nigeria, an Associate Professor of Economics at Pan Atlantic University, Dr Olalekan Aworinde, said the Russia-Ukraine war would reduce the disposable income of Nigerians, which would, in turn, affect the standard of living.

    Aworinde said, “Ukraine is one of the largest producers of wheat in the world and the Russian war invasion will affect the demand and supply of wheat and once the major producers of this agricultural material cannot export the goods, that implies that demand is greater than supply and that will result in a hike in price.

    “Once prices increase, knowing fully well the disposable income of the consumer is constant it means the purchasing power will fall. And if the purchasing power falls, it will affect the standard of living and once it affects the standard of living it means these individuals will go into absolute poverty.”

  • PAGGW bloc: President Buhari calls for US$19bn support from World Bank, AfDB

    PAGGW bloc: President Buhari calls for US$19bn support from World Bank, AfDB

    President Muhammadu Buhari has urged the World Bank, African Development Bank (AfDB) and other partners to support the One Planet Summit initiative and activate the US$19 billion pledge for the Pan African Great Green Wall (PAGGW) project.

     

    He said the pledge, meant for the activities of the PAGGW would be utilized for land restoration, tree planting, development of climate resilience infrastructure and investments in small and medium-sized farms.

     

    Buhari’s spokesman, Malam Garba Shehu, in a statement on Monday in Abuja, said the president made the charge at a side event he convened at the ongoing UN Conference Of Parties, COP15 in Abidjan, Cote d’Ivoire.

     

    The presidential aide noted that the meeting was President Buhari’s first assignment at the PAGGW Conference of Heads of State and Government following his election to head the institution in December last year.

     

    The meeting, which involved the 11 Sahel African states, discussed ways and means of accessing and utilizing US$19 billion pledged by donors for the activities of the Pan African Great Green Wall Agency (PAGGW).

     

    TheNewsGuru.com (TNG) reports that the Nigerian leader also underscored the importance of recharging Lake Chad, now down to 10 percent of its water volume.

     

    In his capacity as the President of the Conference of Heads of State and Governments of the member states of the PAGGW, Buhari said: ”The inter-basin transfer of water from Central Africa to the lake Chad should be taken seriously.”

     

    Buhari asked the secretariat of the Agency, funders and the soon-to-be appointed consultant to carry out the measure as a way of restoring the socio-economy of the more than 30 million people of the Lake Chad basin area.

     

    “As it is at the moment, the drying up of Lake Chad has destroyed fish farming, animal husbandry and crop agriculture, leading to social and economic dislocation with serious consequences for peace in the basin area.

     

    ”This has led to migration to Europe by many, creating problems for you over there. These should engage your attention as a committee,” he said.

     

    At the select meeting, which included International/Development Partners, Buhari said US$19 billion pledged fund would also support smallholder farmers, and create an institutional framework to enhance security, stability, governance and capacity building.

     

    “All of you may wish to know that, in December 2021, I was elected to lead and drive the Agenda of the PAGGW bloc for the next two years.

     

    “This bloc, which includes Nigeria, Senegal, Niger, Sudan, Mauritania, Ethiopia, Mali, Eritrea, Djibouti, Burkina Faso and Chad, is facing dire and present danger due to the devastating effect of desertification and drought which is impacting negatively on the security of our communities and the livelihood of our people.

     

    “There is, therefore, an urgent need to confront these challenges associated with desert encroachment and drought,” Buhari said.

     

    The president requested for more support for The One Planet Summit initiative, and the political will to actualize the mandate.

     

    Buhari said: “It is on this note that on behalf of member States, I welcome The One Planet Summit Initiative that pledges US$19 Billion to support the activities of the PAGGW which necessitated this very important engagement with you this morning.

     

    “The purpose of this meeting therefore is to draw your attention to this pledge and to inform you formally, that member states want to trigger the process for accessing the funding by utilizing the GGW Accelerator window mainly to address the following:

     

    ”Land restoration and tree planting, Investment in small and medium sized farms/support to small holder farmers, Develop climate resilience infrastructure, Institutional framework to enhance security, stability and governance, and Capacity Building.

     

    “I therefore call on you, especially the World Bank, African Development Bank and the One Planet Summit Initiative to support this drive,’’ he said.

     

    Buhari also called on the multilateral institutions to set up a task team to work with PAGGW.

     

    “I will further request the partners, particularly the United Nations Conference to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and One Planet Summit to advise on a suitable Financial Consultant for the PAGGW that can coordinate the process under the auspices of the UNCCD and PAGGW in a transparent manner.

     

    “It is my hope that the parties to this meeting will give us maximum cooperation in this regard and make good their pledge to support Africa’s drive to addressing these climate challenges.

     

    “Finally, I will also direct Nigeria’s Minister of Environment to convene a meeting of Council of Ministers of member states to brief them on the outcome of this brief meeting.’’

     

    In her remark, Amina Mohammed, the Deputy Secretary General, who represented the United Nations, described the meeting as “a new era in the Great Green Wall programme.”

     

    She enjoined the Agency, the 11 African nations involved as well as the group of donors under One Planet Summit to move proactively “with scale and urgency” to set up a government governance structure.

     

    She also demanded that they should focus on land restoration, put in place the digital backbone to connect farmers with markets and ensure that the programmes and activities of the PAGGW were well rooted in individual national plans.

     

    Mohammed advised countries to include the One Planet initiative in their national plans, and not treat it as an added-on development project.

     

    She said the initiative must “align and adhere’’ to the priority of top national development plans in order to succeed.

     

    “I believe that the capacity and commitment of the secretariat of the PGGWA, working together with UNCCD, and your team will be in the best place to engage with partners to develop the pipeline that will ensure that across the countries we are speaking to today, these efforts are made to come to realization sooner than later,’’ she added.

     

    The Executive Secretary of the UNCCD, Ibrahim Thiaw, described the coming together of Nigeria, Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti as “a great inspiration”.

     

    He expressed the hope that the US$19 billion pledged at the One Planet Summit in Paris in 2021 would “turn the dollars into hectares.”

  • FG begins airborne geophysical survey in Ekiti

    FG begins airborne geophysical survey in Ekiti

    The Federal Ministry of Mines and Steel Development in collaboration with the World Bank had embarked on an Airborne Geophysical Survey activity to determine the accurate mineral deposits in Ekiti State.

    The survey is being implemented through the Mineral Sector Support for Economic Diversification Project (MINDIVER), a World Bank assisted programme.

    Mr Akin Omole, the state Commissioner for Information and Values Orientation disclosed this in a statement on Saturday in Ado-Ekiti.

    Omole said the World Bank assisted project under the Federal Ministry of Mines and Steel Development, accounted for the presence of low flying airplanes being sighted recently in some communities in the state.

    According to him, the survey is expected to bring out more details and information on the geology and mineral potentials of the state.

    “This is with a view to determining the mineral locations, types and their extent of availability,” he said.

    Omole said the method of the airborne survey involved measuring minor variations in the earth’s magnetic fields and gamma radiations in the soils.

    According to him, It is a passive technique that does not involve sending out any signals or sound waves into the ground and therefore remains a very safe aerial survey.

    The commissioner said the presence of the low flying airplane in the project areas is safe and doesn’t portend any danger to the inhabitants.

    “Members of the public are hereby urged to go about their daily activities without any fear as the airplane does not portend any safety or health hazard,” he said.

    Newsmen report the airborne survey is to determine accurate mineral locations using the modern contemporary aeromagnetic mechanism in 19 states across the country.

    The states include: Kwara; Ekiti, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Ogun and Ebonyi. Also Enugu, Cross River, Akwa Ibom, Kaduna, Niger, Kogi, Taraba, Benue, Plateau, Nasarawa, Bauchi and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja.

  • CORRUPT PRACTICES: World Bank sanctions SoftTech IT Solutions and Services Ltd, Isah Kantigi

    CORRUPT PRACTICES: World Bank sanctions SoftTech IT Solutions and Services Ltd, Isah Kantigi

    An information technology and services company, SoftTech IT Solutions and Services Ltd, and its Managing Director, Mr Isah Kantigi, have been sanctioned by the World Bank for alleged corrupt practices.

     

    The firm, which was involved in the National Social Safety Nets Project, was sanctioned for 50 months while the managing director was sanctioned for 60 months.

     

    This was contained in a statement titled ‘World Bank Group debars SoftTech IT Solutions and Services Ltd. and its managing director’, which was published on the bank’s website on Wednesday.

     

    The statement read in part, “The World Bank Group today announced the 50-month debarment of SoftTech IT Solutions and Services Ltd., an information technology solutions company based in Nigeria, and the 60-month debarment of its managing director, in connection with corrupt practices as part of the National Social Safety Nets Project in Nigeria.

     

    “The debarments make SoftTech and Mr Isah Kantigi, a Nigerian national, ineligible to participate in projects and operations financed by the World Bank Group.”

  • 36 states in Nigeria to get $750m World Bank grant to improve governance

    36 states in Nigeria to get $750m World Bank grant to improve governance

    The World Bank is set to release the second and final tranche of $750 million to the 36 states of the Nigerian federation as part of a plan to improve governance.

    The $750 million is being distributed under World Bank’s States Fiscal Transparency, Accountability, and Sustainability (SFTAS) Programme.

    The initiative is aimed at providing technical assistance to states to enable them to achieve the Federal Government’s 22-point Fiscal Sustainability Plan.

    The SFTAS Programme, which will formally end in December, also builds the capacity of civil society organisations (CSOs) to ensure the sustainability of the SFTAS reforms beyond the programme’s timeline of 2018 – 2022.

    Our correspondent learnt that the World Bank office at the Ministry of Finance coordinating the programme has kick-started efforts to commence disbursement of the second tranche of $750 million to the states.

    The Federal Government had given conditions state governments must meet before they can benefit from the $750 million International Development Association (IDA) credit facility extended to the Nigerian government by the World Bank.

    The $750 million World Bank grant is designed to strengthen the fiscal transparency, accountability and sustainability in states as a way of improving their revenue base, increasing fiscal efficiency in public expenditure and reducing debt overhang.

    All the states have bought into the programme with many already drawing from the facility.

    To qualify for the facility in 2022, state governments are expected to first achieve Disbursement Linked Indicators (DLIs) in 2021.

    For the states to meet the DLI II in 2021, the Federal Government is demanding that citizens’ inputs from formal public consultations be published online, along with the proposed 2022 budget.

    The states are to execute citizens’ budget based on the approved 2021 state budget published online by the end April 2021 with functional online feedback mechanisms.

    The state governments are also required to create a Citizens Accountability Report based on audited financial statements and reports published online for 2020 not later than the end of September.

    The Fiscal Sustainability Plan has now been redesigned as the nine Disbursement Linked Indicators under SFTAS.

    To benefit from the grant, state governments are required to achieve improved financial reporting and budget reliability; increased openness and citizens’ engagement in the budget process; improved cash management and reduced revenue leakages through the implementation of State Treasury Single Account (TSA); strengthened internally generated revenue (IGR) collection; biometric registration and Bank Verification Number (BVN) used to reduce payroll fraud.

    SFTAS is now under full implementation with all 36 States participating in the programme.

    In 2018, the first performance year, 24 States met the eligibility criteria and achieved on average five DLI results each and they got the total sum of N43.416 billion or $120.6 million of performance-based grants.

    In 2019, the first performance year, 32 States met the eligibility criteria and achieved on average, eight results each. They got a total sum of $239.6 million of performance-based grants.

    For the 2020 verified results, states performed well with all 36 States achieving COVID-19 responsive results in 2020.

    In total, $692.7 million has been disbursed to date to 36 States in performance-based grants.

    According to the SFTAS office, already, two-thirds of states are engaging citizens in their budget process and publishing citizens budgets; 17 states have achieved annual IGR growth of at least 20 per cent in 2019 of which 11 States increased their IGR by more than 40 per cent.

    In addition, two-thirds of the states are addressing payroll fraud through linking biometric data and Bank Verification Numbers to payroll; two-thirds of the states passed fiscal responsibility and public debt laws and several states have started to clear their domestic expenditure arrears owed to contractors, civil servants and pensioners.

  • COVID-19 variants, rising debt, threaten global economic growth – World Bank

    COVID-19 variants, rising debt, threaten global economic growth – World Bank

    Global growth will slow down over the next two years in the face of “fresh threats” from COVID-19 variants and rising inflation, debt and income inequality, the World Bank said on Tuesday in its latest report.

    While economic growth experienced a strong rebound in 2021, it is expected to decline markedly from 5.5 per cent last year to 4.1 per cent in 2022, and drop to 3.2 per cent in 2023.

    Following a strong rebound in 2021, the global economy is now entering a slowdown amid threats from COVID-19 variants and a rise in inflation, debt, and income inequality—all adding to the risk of a “hard landing” in developing economies.

    Given the rapid spread of the Omicron variant, the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to disrupt economic activity in the near term, according to the Global Economic Prospects report.

    Furthermore, notable deceleration in major economies, including the United States and China, will have an impact on external demand in their emerging and developing counterparts.

    “The world economy is simultaneously facing COVID-19, inflation, and policy uncertainty, with government spending and monetary policies in uncharted territory.

    “Rising inequality and security challenges are particularly harmful for developing countries,” said David Malpass, President of the World Bank Group.

    “Putting more countries on a favourable growth path requires concerted international action and a comprehensive set of national policy responses.”

    The slowdown will coincide with a widening divergence in growth rates between advanced and emerging or developing economies.

    By 2023, all advanced economies will have achieved a full output recovery, the report said, but output in emerging and developing economies will remain 4 per cent below its pre-pandemic trend.

    The setback is even larger in fragile and conflict-affected economies, whose output will be 7.5 per cent below the pre-pandemic trend. For small island states, it will be 8.5 per cent below.

    Meanwhile, rising inflation is constraining monetary policy, with low-income workers particularly hit hard. Inflation is running at the highest rates since 2008, both globally and in advanced economies, and has reached its highest rate in a decade in emerging market and developing economies.

    The report contains analytical sections that outline three emerging obstacles to durable recovery in developing economies. It also includes regional outlooks for growth over the next two years.

    Mari Pangestu, the World Bank’s Managing Director for Development Policy and Partnerships, stressed the importance of multilateral collaboration as the choices policymakers make in the coming years will decide the course of the next decade.

    “The immediate priority should be to ensure that vaccines are deployed more widely and equitably so the pandemic can be brought under control. But tackling reversals in development progress such as rising inequality will require sustained support,” she said.

    “In a time of high debt, global cooperation will be essential to help expand the financial resources of developing economies so they can achieve green, resilient, and inclusive development.”

  • Why Nigerian government must not raise electricity tariffs – World Bank

    Why Nigerian government must not raise electricity tariffs – World Bank

    The World Bank has warned the Nigerian government and other emerging economies against raising electricity tariffs, stressing that such steps will push inflation in 2022.

    The warning is contained the latest Commodity Markets Outlook forecast released by the World Bank, indicating that prices of electricity, which peaked at 80 per cent higher this year compared to 2020, will remain high next year.

    It, however, said prices will start to decline in the second half of the year as supply constraints ease.

    The bank said global inflationary pressures and potentially shifting economic growth to energy-exporting countries from energy-importing ones will define the new year.

    Ayhan Kose, chief economist and director of the World Bank’s Prospects Group said the surge in energy prices poses significant near-term risks to global inflation and, if sustained, could also weigh on growth in energy-importing countries.

    The multilateral institution said the sharp rebound in commodity prices is turning out to be more pronounced than previously projected. Recent volatility in prices may complicate policy choices as countries recover from last year’s global recession, it added.

    The bank projected that non-energy prices, including agriculture and metals, would decrease in 2022, following strong gains this year.

    In the outgoing year, some commodity prices rose to (or exceeded) levels not seen since the spike of 2011.

    The bank said natural gas and coal prices reached record highs amid supply constraints and rebounding demand for electricity, although they are expected to decline in 2022 as demand eases and supply improves.

    However, additional price spikes may occur in the near-term amid very low inventories and persistent supply bottlenecks.

    The bank has projected the price of a barrel of crude oil at $74 in 2022 as oil demand strengthens and reaches pre-pandemic levels.

    The use of crude oil as a substitute for natural gas presents a major upside risk to the demand outlook, although higher energy prices may start to weigh on global growth.

    As global growth softens and supply disruptions are resolved, metal prices are forecast to fall five per cent in 2022, after rising by an estimated 48 per cent in 2021.

    Following a projected 22 per cent increase in 2021, agricultural prices are expected to decline modestly next year as supply conditions improve and energy prices stabilise.

    John Baffes, senior economist in the World Bank’s Prospects Group, said high natural gas and coal prices are impacting the production of other commodities and pose an upside risk to price forecasts.

    Baffes said: “Fertilizer production has been curtailed by higher natural gas and coal prices, and higher fertilizer prices have been pushing up input costs for key food crops. The production of some metals such as aluminum and zinc has been reduced due to high energy costs as well.”

    The bank explained that the events of this year have highlighted how changing weather patterns due to climate change are a growing risk to energy markets, affecting both demand and supply.

    From an energy transition perspective, the bank raised concerns about the intermittent nature of renewable energy highlight the need for reliable base-load and backup electricity generation.

    The bank said: “These will increasingly need to be from low-carbon sources, such as hydropower or nuclear power, or from new methods of storing renewable power.

    “At the same time, the surge in natural gas and coal prices has made solar and wind power even more competitive as an alternative energy source. Countries can benefit from accelerating the installation of renewable energy and reducing their dependency on fossil fuels.”

    The report noted that forecasts are subject to substantial risks, including adverse weather, the uneven COVID-19 recovery, the threat of more outbreaks, supply-chain disruptions, and environmental policies.

    Furthermore, higher food prices, along with the recent spike in energy costs, are pushing food-price inflation up and raising food-security concerns in several developing economies.

    As the global shift from rural to urban living continues, the report’s special focus section explores the impact of urbanization on commodity demand. Although cities are often associated with increased demand for energy commodities (and hence greenhouse gas emissions), the report also found that high-density cities, particularly in advanced economies, can have lower per capita energy demand than low-density cities.

    It said the share of people living in urban areas continue to rise, these results highlight the need for urban planning to maximize the beneficial elements of cities and mitigate their negative impacts.

    The bank noted that cities are at the forefront of climate change, and strategic planning particularly for transport links, can help reduce their resource consumption and, crucially, their greenhouse gas emissions.